29/02/2016 World Business Report


29/02/2016

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Those are the latest headlines from BBC World News.

:00:00.:00:00.

Now for the latest financial news with

:00:00.:00:00.

What does the Indian government have up its sleeves to boost

:00:00.:00:17.

-- It's budget day today - we'll be live in Dehli.

:00:18.:00:28.

As Iran's first elections since the lifting of the embargo are over,

:00:29.:00:31.

What did the G20 meeting really achieve? We will look into that too.

:00:32.:00:52.

India is enjoying its economic status - it is the only so called

:00:53.:00:56.

BRIC nation that is in good economic health and it's overtaking

:00:57.:00:58.

China to become the world's fastest-growing major economy.

:00:59.:01:00.

But that doesn't mean India hasn't got some serious

:01:01.:01:02.

The Finance Minister is about to present the annual budget with many

:01:03.:01:06.

hoping Arun Jaitley will do something to simplify the nation's

:01:07.:01:09.

complex tax system, create jobs and make India more business-friendly.

:01:10.:01:13.

The economy grew 7.3% in the last quarter of 2015

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and the IMF predicts growth of 7.5% for this year to 2017.

:01:16.:01:19.

But many economist doubt India will achieve that.

:01:20.:01:35.

To reach growth targets, Mr Jaitley may abandon plans to cut

:01:36.:01:39.

the budget deficit to 3.5% of GDP in the coming financial year.

:01:40.:01:47.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has struggled to get reforms on tax,

:01:48.:01:50.

labour and land acquisition past the opposition - all vital to make India

:01:51.:01:53.

And the government needs to do more to create jobs

:01:54.:02:04.

for the 1 million young Indians who enter the workforce each month.

:02:05.:02:09.

Yogita Limaye will be covering it for us throughout the day and she

:02:10.:02:12.

joins us live from outside the Indian Parliament building in Delhi.

:02:13.:02:15.

Nice to see you. Has he started to present his budget? No, we are

:02:16.:02:25.

expecting that to start any minute now. Parliament has begun and we

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should hear him making a speech soon. Behind me is the finance

:02:30.:02:34.

ministry building where the budget document is prepared. While we wait

:02:35.:02:36.

to listen to what is actually in that document I can tell you how it

:02:37.:02:42.

is made. They are serious about keeping it secret. Finance ministry

:02:43.:02:47.

officials are locked in for ten days until they finally make the budget

:02:48.:02:50.

so no one goes home and so the document is not leaked. They cannot

:02:51.:02:55.

leave at all. That is the spending plan that Arun Jaitley will present

:02:56.:02:59.

in parliament today. Of course, the big challenge before him is how to

:03:00.:03:05.

balance the expenses and revenues, where can India earn money to keep

:03:06.:03:09.

spending and pushing back into the economy. And what are people saving

:03:10.:03:16.

to due in the run-up to this, I know you've spoken to key business

:03:17.:03:22.

leaders -- you. One of the key things leaders have told me is since

:03:23.:03:26.

private investment is not really kicking off, they are not able to

:03:27.:03:30.

make the investments here. What the economy needs is for the government

:03:31.:03:35.

to spend more money on things like infrastructure for example, which

:03:36.:03:37.

can then provide business opportunities, perhaps create jobs

:03:38.:03:40.

and then there will be a trickle-down effect on the economy

:03:41.:03:44.

but there are constraints on how much the government can reach into

:03:45.:03:47.

their pockets because of a lot of expenses, they have to pay $16

:03:48.:03:52.

billion, the cost of increasing salaries for government employees,

:03:53.:03:55.

which has to be done once in a decade. And then there are other

:03:56.:03:58.

expenses which have also gone up this year. They have promised extra

:03:59.:04:04.

pensions to serving as well as former defence personnel, so it will

:04:05.:04:07.

be about what ideas they have to earn more money so they can keep

:04:08.:04:12.

spending more. That speech is expected to start any minute. It

:04:13.:04:16.

will go on for... Last time it was 1.5 hours. Unlike the Oscars there

:04:17.:04:21.

is no music to get him to wrap up. Over the next hour we will start to

:04:22.:04:26.

see what is in it. Thank you so much. Good to speak to you. She is

:04:27.:04:30.

with us for the duration. I will speak to her later on as the budget

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is disclosed. Let's talk about oil now.

:04:35.:04:35.

Iranians had a crude choice to make this weekend

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when they voted in their first parliamentary election since

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So, will the elections pose yet more turbulence to the oil market

:04:41.:04:44.

Venezuelan officials confirmed on Friday that Russia,

:04:45.:04:49.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar have agreed to meet next month.

:04:50.:04:52.

Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to freeze oil

:04:53.:04:54.

But there's scepticism over what they can achieve.

:04:55.:05:05.

As Jeremy Howell explains, the industry is suffering.

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Since June 2014 the oil price has fallen by 70%. 250,000 jobs in the

:05:13.:05:20.

energy sector have been lost worldwide. In the United States

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114,000 jobs have gone. America's shale oil drillers have laid off the

:05:30.:05:33.

most asked. 42 of them went bankrupt last year. -- staff. The oil giants

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have also been making cuts. Last year they cancelled 68 major

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projects worth $380 billion. They ranged from deepwater drilling in

:05:48.:05:50.

the Gulf of Mexico to the development of Canada's oil sands.

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Shell, BP and Chevron between them are shedding 23,000 staff. It is

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estimated that for every one job lost in the oil sector, 3.4 jobs are

:06:03.:06:06.

lost in the rest of the economy. With me is the international oil

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and energy consultant, Nice to see you and thank you for

:06:09.:06:19.

coming in. Jeromy Miles talking about the situation we've become so

:06:20.:06:23.

familiar with in terms of the oil market and what they are grappling

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with but let's talk about Iran. All of the results aren't counted yet

:06:30.:06:35.

but so far it looks like President Rouhani's reform programme and the

:06:36.:06:39.

fact he is getting closer to the West has got the backing in Iran.

:06:40.:06:44.

Within the Iranian political spectrum so to speak, the moderates

:06:45.:06:52.

and reformists seem to be doing well but we have to see the final vote.

:06:53.:06:57.

There are two elections, one for the assembly of experts who ultimately

:06:58.:07:00.

choose the leader, and one for the parliament, the Islamic Assembly.

:07:01.:07:05.

But in terms of the President's programme to push ahead with his

:07:06.:07:12.

plans for increased investment into the economy, increased sort of

:07:13.:07:17.

business going to and from the West, and what it means for the oil

:07:18.:07:20.

markets, it looks like there will be no hurdles in the way of that. That

:07:21.:07:28.

is right. For sure, those in favour of attracting foreign investment and

:07:29.:07:33.

opening up the market, reducing these monopolies and so on, I think

:07:34.:07:37.

they are winning, so this is a positive respect for the opening of

:07:38.:07:41.

the Iranian market in general and of course oil is the major one, with

:07:42.:07:47.

this new Iranian oil contract intended to attract foreign oil and

:07:48.:07:51.

gas companies to come and invest both in exploration and in

:07:52.:07:54.

Brownfield development, which is challenging. More oil coming into

:07:55.:07:57.

the market but we don't have specific set. These investments will

:07:58.:08:04.

mean long-term. Iran already has 1 million barrels per day production

:08:05.:08:10.

capacity and that is not dependent on this. What does it mean for oil

:08:11.:08:17.

prices? As we heard from Jeremy, the situation is still critical. And of

:08:18.:08:21.

course we heard that Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela are

:08:22.:08:25.

calling to come together to talk. Market fundamentals have not

:08:26.:08:30.

changed. Since last year there is excess supply of continuing to come.

:08:31.:08:33.

Freezing production levels in all oil countries at January levels will

:08:34.:08:39.

still mean Texas oil is coming. Unless producers get together and

:08:40.:08:45.

cut supply at earning anything will happen -- excess oil. I -- Iran can

:08:46.:08:55.

come on with another extra 1 million barrels per day. They said they were

:08:56.:08:58.

producing as much. So it is right to continue and to bring that on

:08:59.:09:01.

stream. There is the potential for more oil from Iran. OK. Thank you

:09:02.:09:08.

for getting up so early for us. It is good to see you on World Business

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Report. We shall keep you up-to-date on BBC World News on the situation

:09:13.:09:16.

in Iran as the votes are counted, as it were.

:09:17.:09:18.

In other news: Industrial production in Japan has risen for

:09:19.:09:23.

the first time in three months, according to government data just

:09:24.:09:26.

out. It rose 3.7% in January but is expected to be a temporary rise.

:09:27.:09:30.

Retail sales in January fell by 0.1%.

:09:31.:09:36.

The faltering state of the world economy and turbulent markets

:09:37.:09:39.

dominated discussion at the G20 summit in Shanghai this weekend.

:09:40.:09:44.

But finance ministers and central bankers emerged with

:09:45.:09:48.

few concrete measures, and declared on Saturday that they needed to

:09:49.:09:50.

look beyond ultra-low interest rates and printing money to shake the

:09:51.:09:53.

Let's look at the financial markets. A mixed picture emerging across the

:09:54.:10:08.

board. If we can go to the second screen we can show you how the oil

:10:09.:10:11.

prices are faring given the long conversation we just had about that.

:10:12.:10:16.

At the moment the price of oil is up, Brent over $35, light crude is

:10:17.:10:22.

up slightly as well. That is all for World Business Report. See you in a

:10:23.:10:24.

moment as we look through the papers.

:10:25.:10:31.

A tube station crushed by a nearby tower block is a nightmare scenario

:10:32.:10:36.

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