14/07/2016 World Business Report


14/07/2016

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Those are the latest headlines from BBC World News.

:00:00.:00:00.

Now for the latest financial news with Sally Bundock.

:00:00.:00:00.

Battle stations at the Bank of England.

:00:00.:00:17.

Interest rates could be cut to a new record low as it scrambles

:00:18.:00:20.

America's biggest bank JP Morgan feels the pinch because of,

:00:21.:00:33.

China's appetite for chicken and pizza proves to be

:00:34.:00:52.

We start here in London, where in a few hours' time,

:00:53.:00:58.

the Bank of England will decide what action it will take to shore up

:00:59.:01:01.

the UK economy in the wake of last month's Referendum vote to leave

:01:02.:01:04.

The big news is likely to be cheaper borrowing costs.

:01:05.:01:08.

The bank's governor, Mark Carney, warned in the run-up

:01:09.:01:12.

to the Referendum of the risks of Brexit to the economy.

:01:13.:01:14.

Last week he said those risks "have begun to crystallise."

:01:15.:01:17.

One survey of consumer confidence has seen its biggest fall on record.

:01:18.:01:20.

Others on the service and construction sectors are also

:01:21.:01:22.

So, what can he and his committee do?

:01:23.:01:29.

Well, interest rates are already at a record low of half a percent,

:01:30.:01:32.

where they have been for the past seven years

:01:33.:01:35.

following the Global Financial Crisis.

:01:36.:01:36.

Most experts think they will be cut further today, by another quarter

:01:37.:01:39.

Some think the cost of borrowing could end up being cut to zero.

:01:40.:01:43.

Since the Referendum, the Bank of England has already

:01:44.:01:45.

eased capital requirements for banks, basically how much

:01:46.:01:47.

It hopes that will free up $200 billion for lending.

:01:48.:01:51.

But many economists think that won't be enough

:01:52.:01:53.

They see a return to Quantitative Easing or QE,

:01:54.:01:56.

printing billions of pounds of new money to pump

:01:57.:01:59.

That major step could be put off until next month though,

:02:00.:02:09.

as Mr Carney seemed to imply when he spoke at the end of June.

:02:10.:02:27.

Now, in my view, and I am not pre-judging the views of the other

:02:28.:02:30.

independent members of the MPC, the economic outlook has

:02:31.:02:32.

deteriorated and some monetary policy easing will likely be

:02:33.:02:34.

The MPC will make an initial assessment on the 14th of July,

:02:35.:02:48.

and a full assessment complete with a new forecast will follow

:02:49.:02:51.

Robert Wood is Chief UK Economist at Bank of America,

:02:52.:03:03.

Good morning. What you think the bank will do today? They will cut

:03:04.:03:16.

interest rates close to zero. As Mr Carney said, and as we can see in

:03:17.:03:23.

many surveys of consumers, there is a wait and see approach taken hold.

:03:24.:03:26.

People are uncertain about what will happen. That means the economy

:03:27.:03:32.

growth will turn down. The bank needs to take action and it will

:03:33.:03:39.

today. Action today? In your view, quite significant action? Yeah. The

:03:40.:03:45.

consensus is most people are expecting a 40 point cut of interest

:03:46.:03:51.

rates. May be slightly more. A would make a deal of how much bigger rig

:03:52.:03:54.

is. But it will be close to zero in this month or the month after. And

:03:55.:04:00.

when we'll quantitative easing take place? August, I think. The vote to

:04:01.:04:07.

leave the EU has brought a wait and see approach from consumers and

:04:08.:04:12.

firms. That requires monetary action from the Bank of England to help the

:04:13.:04:18.

economy. That will be interest rates and extra quota easing in August.

:04:19.:04:22.

Mark Carney is not the biggest fan of that, if he? There aren't that

:04:23.:04:31.

many fans of QE out there because it is unconventional. Central banks,

:04:32.:04:36.

until 2008, did not do it. It is hard to see how much it helps the

:04:37.:04:41.

economy. Evidence says it does. At the moment, it is the next tool the

:04:42.:04:45.

Bank of England have in their toolbox. Will it work? Will it stop

:04:46.:04:51.

the UK heading towards a recession? We also have a new chancellor,

:04:52.:04:55.

Philip Hammond. What will he do? A few things. The action taken by

:04:56.:05:01.

setting out a plan and following through with it and constantly

:05:02.:05:04.

explaining that land, that has already helped quite a lot. -- plan.

:05:05.:05:11.

They might find they don't have to do as much at they may have

:05:12.:05:14.

otherwise had to have done if they had not had that. It may help. Will

:05:15.:05:20.

there be a recession? I believe they will have one. But that is six

:05:21.:05:23.

months into the future, who knows exactly where the economy will go.

:05:24.:05:27.

We can be pretty sure it is going down. OK. Thank you so much. We have

:05:28.:05:34.

run out of time but there is so much to discuss. We will do it another

:05:35.:05:40.

day. Thank you for coming in, Robert. And as soon as we get any

:05:41.:05:44.

news from the Central Bank we will update you.

:05:45.:05:46.

Let's stay with those issues of interest rates and Brexit.

:05:47.:05:48.

They're a major concern for Wall Street's giant investment

:05:49.:05:50.

banks which report their quarterly results over the next few days,

:05:51.:05:53.

The UK referendum has derailed plans at the Federal Reserve

:05:54.:05:57.

Low rates cause problems for banks as they make

:05:58.:06:00.

Lower US interest rates are here to stay. At least for a lot longer than

:06:01.:06:16.

anyone expected. But that means revenues for banks like JP Morgan

:06:17.:06:20.

will suffer because all the low interest rates make money lending

:06:21.:06:27.

not very lucrative. Banks need to make money elsewhere. But with

:06:28.:06:31.

China's economy slowing and the price of oil and gas really low,

:06:32.:06:36.

markets are volatile. It means investors are more likely to wait on

:06:37.:06:40.

the sidelines and watch the storm passed. It also means banks will

:06:41.:06:46.

make less revenue from trading. When JP Morgan has another problem, it

:06:47.:06:53.

employs 60,000 people in Britain and has $8 billion in the UK. -- JP

:06:54.:06:56.

Morgan has. That means investors will be looking closely to see just

:06:57.:07:01.

how the bank will be affected by Britain's impending exit from the

:07:02.:07:05.

EU. That is a question investors will ask of all banks. And the

:07:06.:07:10.

effects of which, they will be dealing with four years to come. --

:07:11.:07:15.

for. Samira Hussain, BBC News. It is all abour Yum brands in China

:07:16.:07:34.

now. Don't talk about chicken and pizza! It is making me hungry. After

:07:35.:07:39.

this it is my lunch break. LAUGHING. Let's take a break from

:07:40.:07:47.

Brexit. The fast food chains made $3 billion in the second quarter of

:07:48.:07:52.

this year and have given an upbeat review of its business. New brands

:07:53.:07:58.

are beginning to spin off the unit later this year. China is a key

:07:59.:08:03.

market for Yum. That has got them to increase their profits broadcast to

:08:04.:08:10.

14%. Yum was on track to spin off its China unit, aiming for an

:08:11.:08:15.

October start. When you speak to analysts, the split will allow them

:08:16.:08:23.

to be more responsive and build up their presence in China. It also

:08:24.:08:27.

allows them to raise cash going forward. Analysts say it is a

:08:28.:08:33.

challenging future as the market is moving on from quick service

:08:34.:08:38.

restaurant is and people armed concerned about healthy food and

:08:39.:08:43.

safety. -- restaurants. Despite the concerns, look at the share price of

:08:44.:08:55.

young brands, it is up quite a lot! -- Yum.

:08:56.:08:58.

The number of UK homes being put on the market has seen its biggest

:08:59.:09:03.

fall in almost two decades, and demand from buyers has hit

:09:04.:09:06.

an eight-year low, according to the Royal Institution

:09:07.:09:07.

It's the first survey of the UK housing market since the vote

:09:08.:09:12.

Surveyors expect house prices to fall across the UK in the next

:09:13.:09:16.

three months, and still be lower in a year's time in London.

:09:17.:09:19.

Overall though they see UK prices 14% higher in five years.

:09:20.:09:27.

Shares of Nintendo have continued to soar,

:09:28.:09:29.

up more than 16% in Thursday trade on the runaway success

:09:30.:09:32.

of its new smartphone game Pokemon Go.

:09:33.:09:34.

Players have to track down virtual characters by moving around the real

:09:35.:09:37.

world in a system called "augmented reality,"

:09:38.:09:39.

experts say the technology could also be used for marketing.

:09:40.:09:41.

Nintendo's stock market value is up almost 60% since the game's launch

:09:42.:09:44.

That is the story we are covering today. Pokemon Go is great for the

:09:45.:09:54.

share price but not for some museums and places where people are sent to.

:09:55.:10:00.

The rally continues in Asia, as you can see. I have run out of time. I

:10:01.:10:02.

will see you soon. House prices in Britain are expected

:10:03.:10:10.

to fall over the next few months, following last months

:10:11.:10:13.

decision to leave the EU. That's according to the Royal

:10:14.:10:15.

Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The number of properties being put

:10:16.:10:17.

up for sale is also falling at the sharpest rate

:10:18.:10:20.

since records began.

:10:21.:10:23.

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