27/09/2014 Weather for the Week Ahead


27/09/2014

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Good evening. In this forecast,

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I'll look forward into the beginning of October.

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But it's interesting to look back at September

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as well which for many of us will be remembered as being extremely dry.

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That's because the jetstream that drives our weather systems

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across the Atlantic has been driving them to the North

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and West of the UK for much of the month.

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So high pressure has been influencing proceedings further South

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and any weather fronts have generally been weak.

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The rain we have seen has mostly come from thundery showers

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because we've had lots of warm air pumping Northwards at times.

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We could see some more thundery showers before the end of play

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with September. But it's not likely this weekend.

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Instead, it looks dry with warm sunshine but with a risk of fog.

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Also there could well be some frost around first thing Saturday morning.

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In fact Saturday and Sunday.

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More likely out in rural areas, like Leek, Bala,

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temperatures dipping close to freezing under clearing skies.

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But the big concern for the South

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is for dense fog

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and the fact that it's patchy

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makes it more dangerous

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because you run into it one moment

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and then it will be clear the next.

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There's a bit of cloud around

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from time to time, light showers

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and later more cloud for the North and West.

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But not as windy as it's been today,

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so it won't feel as chilly.

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Again, there's still some energy in the sunshine,

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20 to 21 degrees. Unfortunately not enough

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to clear the fog quickly in the morning.

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Our weather fronts approach further during Sunday,

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so we'll see something more potent

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across parts of the Highlands of Scotland.

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Perhaps brushing into Northern Ireland,

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North-West England,

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so some drizzly showers in Western areas.

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But again, for many, it's dry,

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increasingly bright,

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the fog could be quite stubborn

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and disruptive in Southern and Eastern areas,

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perhaps some of the airports.

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But once it does clear, 19 to 22 in the sunshine,

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it brightens up too behind that the weather front

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in the North of Scotland.

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By Monday, we change the wind direction a little,

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and pull in Southerly winds again,

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so pulling up warmer air I talked about earlier,

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which could introduce showers,

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potentially thundery showers

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because the air is so warm and has a lot of energy.

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They'll be coming across Iberia, through France,

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the Low Countries towards our shores,

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keeping these weather fronts at bay

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but eventually they will win through

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and push that warmer air out of the way.

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By Tuesday, still looking as if

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the risk of those showers or thunderstorms

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in Central and Eastern areas giving us some rain here,

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but not for all.

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Then that weather system makes its way

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into the North and West through Tuesday and Wednesday

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pushing the warmer air out of the way.

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In the mornings, with lightish winds,

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we'll be plagued potentially by fog as well.

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Then, from Wednesday on, it looks set to turn more settled.

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For the beginning of the period, relatively settled,

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then we've got some disagreement in the computer models

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as to how much we'll get in Southern and Eastern areas,

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but then they look as if they agree

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towards the end of next week to settle things down again.

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So early October looks set to revert back

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to what we've seen for much of September,

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with high pressure dominating Southern areas,

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low pressure in the North

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and any weather fronts that do come South will tend to weaken

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and not give as much rain across Southern areas

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because of that close-by high pressure.

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So we'll still have some fog at this time of year,

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perhaps some grass frost,

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but by day warm because it will be relatively settled.

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It's just cloud amounts that we'll be checking out.

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So it looks as if we will see some rain before the end of September,

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but October starts relatively dry.

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