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Good evening. In this forecast, | 0:00:03 | 0:00:04 | |
I'll look forward into the beginning of October. | 0:00:04 | 0:00:06 | |
But it's interesting to look back at September | 0:00:06 | 0:00:08 | |
as well which for many of us will be remembered as being extremely dry. | 0:00:08 | 0:00:13 | |
That's because the jetstream that drives our weather systems | 0:00:13 | 0:00:16 | |
across the Atlantic has been driving them to the North | 0:00:16 | 0:00:18 | |
and West of the UK for much of the month. | 0:00:18 | 0:00:21 | |
So high pressure has been influencing proceedings further South | 0:00:21 | 0:00:24 | |
and any weather fronts have generally been weak. | 0:00:24 | 0:00:26 | |
The rain we have seen has mostly come from thundery showers | 0:00:26 | 0:00:29 | |
because we've had lots of warm air pumping Northwards at times. | 0:00:29 | 0:00:32 | |
We could see some more thundery showers before the end of play | 0:00:32 | 0:00:36 | |
with September. But it's not likely this weekend. | 0:00:36 | 0:00:39 | |
Instead, it looks dry with warm sunshine but with a risk of fog. | 0:00:39 | 0:00:43 | |
Also there could well be some frost around first thing Saturday morning. | 0:00:43 | 0:00:48 | |
In fact Saturday and Sunday. | 0:00:48 | 0:00:50 | |
More likely out in rural areas, like Leek, Bala, | 0:00:50 | 0:00:53 | |
temperatures dipping close to freezing under clearing skies. | 0:00:53 | 0:00:57 | |
But the big concern for the South | 0:00:57 | 0:00:59 | |
is for dense fog | 0:00:59 | 0:01:01 | |
and the fact that it's patchy | 0:01:01 | 0:01:02 | |
makes it more dangerous | 0:01:02 | 0:01:04 | |
because you run into it one moment | 0:01:04 | 0:01:06 | |
and then it will be clear the next. | 0:01:06 | 0:01:07 | |
There's a bit of cloud around | 0:01:07 | 0:01:09 | |
from time to time, light showers | 0:01:09 | 0:01:11 | |
and later more cloud for the North and West. | 0:01:11 | 0:01:13 | |
But not as windy as it's been today, | 0:01:13 | 0:01:15 | |
so it won't feel as chilly. | 0:01:15 | 0:01:17 | |
Again, there's still some energy in the sunshine, | 0:01:17 | 0:01:20 | |
20 to 21 degrees. Unfortunately not enough | 0:01:20 | 0:01:23 | |
to clear the fog quickly in the morning. | 0:01:23 | 0:01:25 | |
Our weather fronts approach further during Sunday, | 0:01:25 | 0:01:28 | |
so we'll see something more potent | 0:01:28 | 0:01:30 | |
across parts of the Highlands of Scotland. | 0:01:30 | 0:01:32 | |
Perhaps brushing into Northern Ireland, | 0:01:32 | 0:01:34 | |
North-West England, | 0:01:34 | 0:01:35 | |
so some drizzly showers in Western areas. | 0:01:35 | 0:01:38 | |
But again, for many, it's dry, | 0:01:38 | 0:01:40 | |
increasingly bright, | 0:01:40 | 0:01:42 | |
the fog could be quite stubborn | 0:01:42 | 0:01:44 | |
and disruptive in Southern and Eastern areas, | 0:01:44 | 0:01:46 | |
perhaps some of the airports. | 0:01:46 | 0:01:48 | |
But once it does clear, 19 to 22 in the sunshine, | 0:01:48 | 0:01:51 | |
it brightens up too behind that the weather front | 0:01:51 | 0:01:53 | |
in the North of Scotland. | 0:01:53 | 0:01:55 | |
By Monday, we change the wind direction a little, | 0:01:55 | 0:01:57 | |
and pull in Southerly winds again, | 0:01:57 | 0:01:59 | |
so pulling up warmer air I talked about earlier, | 0:01:59 | 0:02:02 | |
which could introduce showers, | 0:02:02 | 0:02:04 | |
potentially thundery showers | 0:02:04 | 0:02:06 | |
because the air is so warm and has a lot of energy. | 0:02:06 | 0:02:09 | |
They'll be coming across Iberia, through France, | 0:02:09 | 0:02:12 | |
the Low Countries towards our shores, | 0:02:12 | 0:02:13 | |
keeping these weather fronts at bay | 0:02:13 | 0:02:15 | |
but eventually they will win through | 0:02:15 | 0:02:17 | |
and push that warmer air out of the way. | 0:02:17 | 0:02:20 | |
By Tuesday, still looking as if | 0:02:20 | 0:02:22 | |
the risk of those showers or thunderstorms | 0:02:22 | 0:02:24 | |
in Central and Eastern areas giving us some rain here, | 0:02:24 | 0:02:27 | |
but not for all. | 0:02:27 | 0:02:29 | |
Then that weather system makes its way | 0:02:29 | 0:02:31 | |
into the North and West through Tuesday and Wednesday | 0:02:31 | 0:02:34 | |
pushing the warmer air out of the way. | 0:02:34 | 0:02:36 | |
In the mornings, with lightish winds, | 0:02:36 | 0:02:39 | |
we'll be plagued potentially by fog as well. | 0:02:39 | 0:02:42 | |
Then, from Wednesday on, it looks set to turn more settled. | 0:02:42 | 0:02:45 | |
For the beginning of the period, relatively settled, | 0:02:45 | 0:02:49 | |
then we've got some disagreement in the computer models | 0:02:49 | 0:02:51 | |
as to how much we'll get in Southern and Eastern areas, | 0:02:51 | 0:02:54 | |
but then they look as if they agree | 0:02:54 | 0:02:56 | |
towards the end of next week to settle things down again. | 0:02:56 | 0:02:59 | |
So early October looks set to revert back | 0:02:59 | 0:03:01 | |
to what we've seen for much of September, | 0:03:01 | 0:03:03 | |
with high pressure dominating Southern areas, | 0:03:03 | 0:03:06 | |
low pressure in the North | 0:03:06 | 0:03:07 | |
and any weather fronts that do come South will tend to weaken | 0:03:07 | 0:03:11 | |
and not give as much rain across Southern areas | 0:03:11 | 0:03:13 | |
because of that close-by high pressure. | 0:03:13 | 0:03:15 | |
So we'll still have some fog at this time of year, | 0:03:15 | 0:03:18 | |
perhaps some grass frost, | 0:03:18 | 0:03:19 | |
but by day warm because it will be relatively settled. | 0:03:19 | 0:03:22 | |
It's just cloud amounts that we'll be checking out. | 0:03:22 | 0:03:25 | |
So it looks as if we will see some rain before the end of September, | 0:03:25 | 0:03:28 | |
but October starts relatively dry. | 0:03:28 | 0:03:31 |