19/11/2015 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. Sometimes the extraordinary goes on so long, it seems ordinary,

but November really shouldn't be this mild.

The Met Office tells us the first half of the month was

the second warmest start to November on record.

We achieved the warmest November day and November night we've seen,

but things are about to change

and quite significantly and, as ever,

all the clues are in the Jet stream.

It has been bringing an air in

from the west or south-west,

but wet and windy weather systems too.

But then, look at this going into the weekend.

Right from the north,

we drag arctic air across the UK,

it's going to feel so different.

Not quite here yet,

it's lurking behind this weather front

close to northern Scotland.

That's where the isobars are lining up from the Arctic.

So, on Thursday, it's pretty much as you were,

although double-figure temperatures across

southern England and south Wales

held back by cloud, some outbreaks of rain.

It'll be a blustery day,

not quite as windy as Wednesday.

There'll be showers coming into Scotland,

Northern Ireland, north-west England

and persistent rain for parts of northern Scotland

close to that weather front, but as you can see,

many again getting into double figures.

Now, as we go through Thursday night,

this weather front to the south

has another ripple of energy,

bringing some rain back to parts of south Wales

and southern England as Friday begins.

That weather front is still

in northern Scotland, making it wet.

The southern front pulls away southwards on Friday

and then we look to the north.

The wind changing direction,

colder air starting to come in,

showers turning increasingly to snow

to ever lower ground in Scotland.

And if you're a fan of arctic air,

you will like this weather chart here.

You'll be very interested too

in this system in the North Sea.

A lot of uncertainty about it at the moment,

but it has the potential -

Friday night and into Saturday morning -

to bring some wet weather

down this eastern side of the UK,

rain on the coast,

but in that cold air inland,

even to low ground,

we could be seeing some snow.

So snow on the ground or snow falling for some

as Saturday begins. Windy too,

so gotta factor in wind chill as well.

Saturday night, there'll be a frost for many.

This weather system working southwards

has some less cold air

associated with it for a time,

so maybe producing some rain,

but then, on Sunday,

the colder air digs back in.

There'll be showers, especially coastal areas.

Rain, sleet, hail.

Snow to any that fall inland,

but a lot of dry weather too

and some sunshine

in this crisp arctic air.

But it looks like being a short, sharp shock,

because, into next week,

around this area of high pressure -

notice the isobars going into Monday

no longer from the north,

but just coming round that high pressure

from the Atlantic once again

and, as that process takes place,

we topple milder air in

south-eastwards across the UK during Monday,

so it becomes less cold once again.

That again is about another change

in the position of the Jet stream.

As that process happens,

we take some cloud and rain

southwards across the UK.

Initially snow on Scottish hills.

But even here, it's likely to turn to rain.

Notice those temperatures coming up.

So, next week, then, the jet stream,

it's not straight down from the north,

it's coming around at high pressure across the Atlantic.

As it does so, it could well bring back

the potential for further wet and windy weather systems

hitting the north-west of the UK first.

That is something we need to watch.

But it's all about the change in the feel of the weather.

November so far, 15. We saw that again.

Maybe North Wales on Wednesday, for example,

but by this weekend, 5 at best.

Some of us won't even get that high.

And next week, we're not going to recover the ground,

even though it turns a bit milder again around 9 degrees.

Closer to reality November.

Some people tell me they want cold weather!

It's coming, whether you like it or not.