14/12/2015 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. The weekend may have brought a real taste

of winter across parts of northern England,

Northern Ireland and Scotland.

The week ahead does something completely different.

It takes us back to square one. Essentially a mild week.

Out of step with the season for many of us,

quite breezy at times

and with exception of parts of south-west England

and parts of south Wales, not quite as wet as it has been.

This is most important

across those areas hit by flooding.

We saw exceptional rainfall last weekend in Cumbria

but let's just look at the wider picture.

Shap has seen nearly 90 centimetres of rain

in the past six weeks,

that equates to six months' worth of rainfall.

Same sort of values too to Capel Curig

where just over 1.25 metres has fallen.

Yes, six weeks, six months of rainfall

so you can understand the problem we've had here

with the rivers very high, the saturated ground

and we really want these low pressures

to spin their way in. At the moment,

it's got a fairly weak jet stream overhead

and so they just meander to the west of us

as they do on Monday.

We do have some weather fronts stranded -

one across parts of central Scotland,

that's what produces snow through the night

and fizzles out through the Forth-Clyde valley,

and another pushing into south-west England

and Wales later on,

bringing with it a strengthening breeze.

In-between, we're stuck with very cloudy conditions.

For many, temperatures at, if not above

where they should be for the time of year,

only a few cloud breaks here and there.

Through Monday evening and overnight,

the weather fronts from the south-west

try to push their way northwards but without that jet stream,

they just fizzle out, really. Our area of low pressure

doesn't really want to shove in towards us

and is replaced by another one

pushing up from the south-west.

It leads in Tuesday

on a fairly weak east to south-easterly airflow,

not an especially warm one across Scotland

but there'll be some brightness breaking through,

as you could see in parts of Cumbria

and the far north of Northern Ireland.

And that south-east wind always keeps things drier

in those areas where we see some of the wettest weather of late.

However, you'll notice another weather front

into south-west England and south Wales

by the end of Tuesday but stronger winds with this one.

Little area of low pressure

tries a better go at pushing across the UK.

England and Wales especially, gales through the night,

some outbreaks of rain,

all starting to ease through the day.

Heavy spurts of rain through the Midlands

into the east of the Pennines

so we'll keep a very close eye on river levels

and the risk of flooding. But with south-easterly winds,

it does mean this north-western corner always that bit drier

and most places should finish the day dry anyway.

Through Wednesday night into Thursday,

more low pressures out to the west and we're dragging in

an even more southerly track of wind across the UK.

Through the night,

exceptionally mild temperatures,

could be in the teens for some

and stay that way throughout Thursday,

only cooling off later on

as a cold front pushes its way from west to east.

Have to watch this,

it looks like it should push through enough

not to give us any problems

but if it slows down its progress,

of course that risk of flooding will be there.

Into Friday,

we're back to west to south-westerly winds,

blustery conditions but a brief ridge of high pressure

does mean that morning cloud will break up.

We'll see some sunny spells around,

enough of a breeze just to stop low cloud lingering

but it does bring in more rain to western areas later

and then we start to see the jet stream

kick back into gear.

So as we go through the weekend and into Christmas week,

a fighter jet stream, a more vigorous jet stream,

we're back to seeing areas of low pressure

sweep their way through.

So, as we go into Christmas week,

it's a case of further spells of rain

across all parts of the country.

It will be quite windy at times,

potentially stormy in the lead-up to Christmas.

Temperatures will be at or above where they should be

but because low pressure is pushing through,

as the winds go west to north-westerly every now and again

and between those low pressure systems,

it will turn that little bit cooler.

More tomorrow. Bye.