16/12/2015 Weather for the Week Ahead

Ten days or so until Christmas

and all sorts can happen between now and then.

But for those dreaming of a white one, well,

temperatures are really heading in the wrong direction at the moment.

We've got a feed of subtropical air

coming up from the middle of the Atlantic,

which does mean that it's going to get even milder

over the next few days, if that is possible.

Mid teens quite widely up and down the UK this week.

Compare that with where we should be this time of year -

a good 5, 6, 7 degrees milder than normal.

Quite remarkable.

The price we pay is some rain.

It's been a pretty wet night in some places

and still some dribs and drabs left behind.

Though plenty of dry weather too

and hopefully where you are

you'll see a glimpse of brightness through the day.

Temperatures shooting up into the mid teens

and a lot milder than it has been

across the Highlands and Grampians,

where a thaw continues apace.

Now, we're a little bit concerned as we go into the night

and Thursday morning at a weather front coming in from the west

which will bring some fairly persistent rain to Cumbria.

And of course with the catchments, well, pretty high

at the moment, that's something we'll be keeping a very close eye on.

Weather warnings are in force.

So rain spreading in from the west.

Ahead of that, some warm winds again from the south.

And in any sunshine, 15, 16...

maybe 17 degrees in one or two places.

But that weather front actually is a cold front.

Don't get too excited, it's not going to introduce particularly chilly air

but temperatures won't be just as high as we get in towards Friday.

We've got some westerly winds for a change

so a little bit less mild, shall we say.

And actually, plenty of dry weather for a time

before the next set of weather fronts comes in to the north-west

with further wet weather for Northern Ireland, western Scotland

and some north-western parts of England and Wales, too.

Again, low to mid teens is above par.

Now, this weather system is going to get hooked up

across the more northern and western parts of the UK

as we go from Friday into Saturday.

And again, we'll be keeping a close eye on that

because we could see some fairly persistent and heavy rain

across the high ground of north-west Britain,

whereas further south and east again, in the sunshine,

with those southerly winds once more,

temperatures will be shooting up -

15, 16, 17 degrees.

Once again, it's possible.

We could see some records broken over the next few days.

That's how mild it's going to be.

Later on in the weekend,

again, we see the southerly winds replaced by westerlies,

so not just as mild.

More low pressure systems are getting lined up out in the Atlantic,

getting fed by a strong jet stream.

And in the dip of that jet,

we get low pressure systems forming

and whistling up towards the UK.

Fairly intense features

so potentially some further wet and windy weather

as we go into the start of next week.

In fact, the jet stream really is wrapped

all the way around the northern hemisphere

and it's kind of stuck in this sort of pattern at the moment.

It has been for so long.

And the jet stream is the dividing line, of course,

between cold air in polar regions

and milder air to the south.

And with that jet stream kind of stuck at the moment,

we're most definitely on the mild side of things.

We'll have brief incursions of chillier air through next week

but only brief,

and only really affecting the more northern parts of the UK.

Further south, well and truly mild.

So as we approach Christmas Day, generally mild.

Briefly chilly at times, especially in the north.

Plenty of rain and wind, not much in the way of snow.

And we're going to have to watch out

for potentially stormy conditions at times

in the run-up to Christmas.

So a lot going on

and I'll update you again tomorrow.