01/01/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. As we say goodbye to 2015,

our thoughts start to drift towards the weather for 2016.

More on that in just a moment.

But I just want to recap on December.

Temperatures averaged out at around 8 degrees.

It was a mild month.

Way above the average where we should be at this time of year.

It was also a wet one. No surprises to hear that.

It was the wettest on record for Wales and for Scotland.

In fact, it was the wettest calendar month in Scotland ever recorded.

We also saw some very heavy, persistent rain

across north-west England.

But the rest of England and Wales, not too bad.

Now, one of the reasons for this heavy, persistent rain

and the mild weather is the kink that we had in the jet stream,

driving up the wind direction from the south-west

and that brought that warm, moist air that produced the rain.

New Year's Eve wasn't too bad.

We had a little bump of high pressure build

and so just a few shower clouds.

But New Year's Day, the clouds start to gather.

And that's going to bring some wet weather

and some windy weather into the south-west.

It will give you a chilly start through New Year's Day.

Eventually, the clouds spilling in and the wind is quite a feature,

particularly down into the south-west,

as we see some cloud, wind and rain developing.

So that means, with the cloud,

temperatures in some areas at around 4 or 5 degrees.

Bit of a shock to the system.

But it will turn milder,

but stay pretty unsettled through New Year's Day into Monday.

And that's because that area of low pressure slowly drifts away,

we see another pattern developing with a ridge of high,

before the next low moves in.

So on Saturday, it's going to be a case

of sunny spells and scattered showers.

It stays pretty blustery, as well.

The showers not as intense or as persistent as they have been,

perhaps with the exception of the far north-east of Scotland.

Top temperatures between 7 and 12 degrees.

Now, as we move out of Saturday

and that ridge of high pressure gets pushed out of the way

by the next low, the isobars squeezing together,

the winds remaining a feature

and this will bring more significant cloud, wind and rain

across the country from the west, just where we don't need it.

So again, some persistent rain into the south-west across Wales

and eventually that will merge

with those persistent showers in the north-east of Scotland.

So we'll need to keep a close eye

on weather events taking place during Sunday.

That area of low pressure, the bulk of the rain will ease away,

but still influencing our weather on Monday.

It just drifts its way down through the west coast,

so there is the potential, wrapping itself around that low,

for the winds to remain a feature and plenty of showers piling in, as well.

Top temperatures on Monday of around 6 to 10 degrees.

It's a similar pattern developing.

The low will drift out of the way,

allowing a ridge of high pressure to build.

So we could end up with a rather chilly feel

before the next low waits out into the wings.

So, as we move into Tuesday, the winds a feature across the south

and running in through the east coast.

That'll have the heaviest of the rain.

It will feel quite cool - 5 or 6 degrees.

The best of the shelter,

the best of the dry weather through Tuesday out to the west.

As we move into the longer period, the six- to ten-day period,

we have this low pressure down to the south-west,

but the jet stream is starting to split, weaken a little.

Why? Because of an area of high pressure blocking it

out into Europe.

And that means that, as the jet stream splits,

it weakens a little.

So the weather patterns may well change.

There's the potential still for some rain around,

but it looks likely that we're likely to see

more significant rain across

central and southern parts of England,

where we've not had as much in recent days or weeks.

Still feeling cool and often rather cloudy, as well.

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Now I've missed a murder.

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