15/02/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

The week will end less cold than it starts

but if you were watching me last week I was hinting

that the end of this cold spell wouldn't be as straightforward

as some computer models were indicating, it's going to be

an interesting ride over the next few days, as we'll see in a moment.

Certainly a very cold start to proceedings on Monday,

further sleet and snow showers down the eastern side,

some of those will turn back to rain

as the temperature rises a bit, lots of lovely sunshine elsewhere,

it's going to be a bright, crisp, sunny day for the majority.

Still breezy across eastern areas,

the winds lighter further west, 3-7 degrees, north to south.

As soon as the sun sets temperatures will fall away very quickly,

we will soon go into frost,

notice though how the blues tend to be across England and Wales

as we get into the latter part of the night

where as in Northern Ireland and Scotland

you may see temperatures rise.

So, by Tuesday morning, -7 across the heart of England,

nearer 5 degrees across the far north-west of Scotland.

That's because we have a weather front approaching

which will thicken up the cloud,

increasing the wind, and bringing some rain,

very wet and windy weather across the far northwest in particular,

and a period of snow over high ground, principally.

In contrast, for England and Wales,

it's going to be another fine day,

after that cold and frosty start.

Mild air is trying to push in from that weather front,

but there is a catch.

It is intensely cold across the north-eastern states, -28.

That cold air will whistle across the Atlantic,

it will warm out as it crosses the sea,

but that cold air, such that it is,

will push into the back of that weather front

which will be stranded across the heart of the UK on Wednesday.

So we've got cold air on either side,

which does mean that some of the rain within this zone

could turn to snow.

There is a lot of uncertainty, this front could be further west,

or further east, but parts of northern England could be prone

to seeing some snowfall,

particularly later on in the day,

and that risk extends into some Eastern counties

as we head into the night.

Let's follow that front.

Very slowly, as we go through Wednesday night

into Thursday morning, it's going to track its way further eastwards,

taking most of the rain and snow with it.

Behind that, brighter skies, some sunshine for many,

eventually, once the front clears away on Thursday.

Still chilly though, and some wintry showers across the north-west.

We end the week with the jet stream waking up.

And of course the jet stream is what drives our low-pressure systems

off the Atlantic, and it's going to be coming in

at a fair rate of knots, from west to east.

So no surprise that we will see an area of low pressure

carried by the jet stream, initially affecting more north-western parts

of the UK on Friday, tracking towards the south and east.

The timing of this is a little bit open to question,

several days ahead, but it will be turning increasingly wet

and windy from the north-west,

and temperatures beginning to rise.

Particularly across southern areas.

Into Saturday, those fronts should have cleared eastwards,

but further fronts following on behind.

You'll notice though, we are into double figures now

across southern areas, not so mild further north,

but certainly not as cold as it has been.

Through next weekend then,

we're sort of the dividing line between the mild and the cold.

Most of us are affected by significantly milder air

by next weekend.

And it's the contrast between the mild and the cold

which drives that jet stream.

So that will stay pretty strong.

As that oscillates its way northwards and southwards

over the next few days,

so the cold and mild air will kind of head north and south as well.

So the message is, into the early part of next week,

I think temperatures will be fluctuating a little bit,

probably wettest across northern areas,

further south, lengthier dry spells,

but for all of us will be pretty windy, I think,

over the next several days.

That's it, we will update you tomorrow.

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