17/03/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

This spell of dry weather is set to continue for most of us

into next week, but we will start to see some changes,

and it's all linked to what's going on in the United States.

More on that in a moment.

First, let's come back to the UK

and look at the dry conditions

persisting through Thursday.

Again, the cloud will make a big difference,

and again, parts of the east coast

will stay misty and murky.

It may take a while for the Central Belt

of Scotland to brighten up,

but many places looking quite sunny

by the afternoon.

Still a chilly breeze in the south,

but here, we should see the top temperatures,

10-12 Celsius - again, on the east coast,

if the cloud sticks, just 6-7 Celsius.

The dry spell is of course

due to this big area of high pressure.

It is just very slowly continuing to head

its way further west into the Atlantic,

and subtle changes in that high mean

subtle changes in the wind,

and that has a big impact on where we see the cloud.

I think the sunniest weather on Friday,

Wales and south-west England.

Parts of Scotland seeing some sunshine,

but much of central and eastern Britain

will be rather dull and rather chilly.

Now, the high is still there,

dominating into the weekend,

so a lot of dry weather, but around it,

now we're starting to see the winds

come more down from the north,

introducing a cooler feel

and introducing a lot of moisture,

maybe a few light showers here and there,

but generally it's just going to be a cloudy day.

These are the temperatures

if it stays dull - single figures.

Some places may see a bit of brightness

and get to double digits.

On Sunday, we start to see a few more showers

drifting into the far north-west,

a hint of a change here,

but again for most, it's still dry,

it's still rather cloudy.

By the time we get to Monday,

the high has properly started

to edge away from Ireland.

The weather fronts are starting

to make inroads across the far north-west.

Lots of uncertainty about the timing

on those weather fronts,

and the uncertainty is enhanced

through next week,

because of what's going on

in the United States.

It's all linked to the Jet Stream

ribboning its way around the world,

and this warming of the air

across parts of the west of the US

and colder air driving south

across the north-east of the US

enhances the change, the gradient,

between the cold and the warm air,

and that drives the Jet Stream.

So we could see a strong jet driving

south from the US early next week.

Now we looked at this pattern

with the Jet Stream last night,

showing how it's looping round

to the north of the UK,

keeping the weather systems

generally at bay.

What we could see, if the jet intensifies,

driving out of the US -

a bit like a skipping rope, giving it a ripple -

it drives and it's more amplified,

it goes further north

and then comes back south

a little bit further west.

It doesn't look like a big difference,

but it could be the difference

between high pressure still in control of the UK

or, if we see that more amplified pattern,

the Jet Stream allowing the high pressure

to be further west and low pressure systems

may start to move in across the UK -

either way, low pressure hanging on across Europe,

still unsettled across parts of the Mediterranean.

But subtle changes in what's going on

across the US will have an effect

over this side of the Atlantic.

Overall, next week staying chilly,

with some showers increasing,

as the threat of low pressures

arrive across the north.

The driest conditions, closest

to the high across the south.

Then, looking a little further ahead,

into the Easter weekend -

because we've got this blocking pattern,

the changes are always going to be slow,

but it does look as if we're suggesting it'll turn

a bit more unsettled, a bit more showery

for the Easter weekend, and always staying on the cool side.

That is a long way off, though.

We'll obviously firm up on the details over the coming days.