13/07/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Here we are at the middle of the week, and a lot of you want to know

what the weather's going to be like this weekend.

I wish I could give you a definitive answer,

but sometimes, the atmospherics just are not that clear cut.

The atmospherics haven't been clear cut in the last 24 hours or so.

We've seen huge contrasts.

Lots of lovely sunshine here in Cornwall on Tuesday.

Torrential rain further east, and across England,

deluges across East Anglia and the south-east.

But I want to journey to the other side of the Atlantic,

and point out one of the pieces of the jigsaw

which is causing us problems here in the Weather Centre.

It's the behaviour of this area of low pressure

which will dictate how things prevail come the weekend.

As we'll see in a moment.

Ahead of that, another day of sunshine and showers on Wednesday.

The distribution of showers not the same as it was on Tuesday,

so some places will see rather more rain

and others will see rather less rain than we saw on Tuesday.

Across Northern Ireland and Scotland,

rather more in the way of showers around,

some of them quite heavy through the afternoon.

They'll rattle through on the breeze

and there will be some sunshine in between.

Cool, though. Temperatures still struggling across the country.

Stuck in the mid- to high teens for the most part.

There'll be a few showers across northern England.

Western parts of England and Wales by the afternoon

doing pretty well for sunshine.

If you're heading to the coast, you'll see some blue sky here.

But another crop of sharp showers across parts of the south-east,

though not the intense disruptive downpours

which some of us have seen recently.

On into Thursday. I've mentioned this troublemaker behind me.

But ahead of that, we've got a ridge of high pressure building in,

so I'm pretty optimistic for Thursday.

Most of us will be dry. Showers very isolated. Plenty of blue sky.

Winds fairly light, which will feel very nice indeed.

And, of course, Thursday marks, firstly,

the first day of the Lord's Test, England taking on Pakistan,

where we should see, hopefully, a full day's play.

We also have the first day of the Open golf up there in Troon.

And although Thursday, I think, will be dry,

it's a different story for Friday.

The rain will be arriving, we think,

across the west of Scotland and, indeed, Northern Ireland,

as this set of weather fronts duly arrives.

Now, further south and east across the country on Friday,

I think it will stay dry.

It might turn increasingly cloudy,

but we'll hold on to the fine weather.

In any brightness, it'll feel pleasant enough

closest to that high pressure, whereas further north and west,

an increasing breeze, and we'll have the cloud and outbreaks of rain,

so not feeling all that summer-like.

And then what happens next? Well, it's a good question.

If you were watching yesterday,

you'll know a lot hinges on the progress of this weather front,

that weather system out in the Atlantic,

and how quickly it spreads its way down towards the south-east.

It's the dividing line between humid air across the south-east

and cooler air to the north-west.

It could stay further north,

which means that many places will enjoy warm, humid conditions,

temperatures up into the mid-20s, potentially, in any sunshine.

However, it could find its way further down towards the south,

which means that most places will see cooler conditions

come the weekend.

And it does look as if, eventually, come what may,

the cooler air will win.

So any heat will not last all that long

as the jet stream gets going again

and pushes that frontal system out of the way.

Now, given that we've seen twisting and turning

in the story over the last 24, 48 hours,

my advice would be to watch this space

and watch this broadcast again tomorrow.

But at this stage, that's how we see things panning out,

and by early next week, I think wettest in the north-west,

the driest conditions across the south-east,

but no real sign of any prolonged heat at this stage.

Helen will update you again tomorrow.

You're in cold water, you're not going to last long.