08/09/2014 World News Today

This is BBC World News Today with me, Rajesh Mirchandani.

It's getting too close to call, but could Scotland be

Scottish voters will decide next week.

Now one poll says a majority favour independence.

And we'll see what happened when people in Quebec in Canada also

thought their bid for independence was about to become a reality.

Also coming up, Iraq's parliament votes on a new government,

a critical step in the fight against Islamic State jihadists.

And a new Royal baby is on the way here in Britain.

Delight all round, but the Duchess of Cambridge is once more suffering

It's early days, but we hope things settle down

A referendum on whether Scotland should leave

Now it's taken on new impetus because, for the first time,

a poll has suggested that more Scots would vote for independence than

The survey gave the pro-independence,

The British pound has already fallen to a low against the US dollar. This

report from Dundee. At campaign headquarters, they are

on dawn to buy the value of the pound or shaky set prices. They say

Dundee is yes city, so great has been the defection of Labour voters

to the yes cause. What difference has the poll giving them a narrow

lead made? Will it give yes voters pause, might there be a loss of

nerve? To the contrary, I think as people start realising we can do

this, people will find their nerve, people who perhaps before were a wee

bit sitting on the fence, not convinced we will do it. Now they

understand we can, they are finding their nerve. What will win it or

lose it for the yes campaign is the ability to maximise the campaign in

places like this, working-class Scotland where people's natural

inclination in the past has been to vote Labour. To do that, they will

have to reassure people that negative reaction in the

international markets and the global economy will be short lived. The yes

campaigners say it's Westminster that is stoking nervousness. The

blame for any uncertainty has to lie with the UK government which refuses

point blank to have sensible discussion with the Scottish

government about a currency union and the kind of things that would

help give reinsurance to those markets. Yesterday's a poll gave yes

a 2-point lead, the first time they have surged ahead. An aggregate of

recent polls suggest the pro union side's commanding lead has almost

vanished. I think we are winning the argument. We will win this

referendum next week because I think, as people approach polling

day, they will see the stakes couldn't be higher. We don't have to

break up the country to make Scotland a better, stronger country

in which to live. They've reassured by that in the other Scotland, the

Scotland that still feels British to its core? At Kelso in the Borders,

some are dismayed that the no campaign's leads seems to have

evaporated in a month. I am worried about what's going to happen if

Scotland goes independent, what's going to happen to my pension, my

health care? And also my family, who live here? A very worrying time.

It's a huge decision, the biggest we will ever make. You can change the

government from time to time, every five years if you wish, but this,

this is for ever. But the momentum is with the yes campaign now, pro

union leaders must hope that action on more powers for the Scottish

parliament, however late in the day, will halt that.

If you're watching in Canada, this all might sound familiar.

The vote for independence in Scotland has piqued

the interest of many people in the mostly French-speaking province

of Quebec, because they held two referenda on sovereignty.

Both time, voters chose to remain in Canada, but the last vote

So does Quebec's experience offer any lessons for Scotland?

The BBC's Nick Bryant has been to Quebec City to find out.

A pageant through the streets of old Quebec city, retelling

the story of the settlements of what was then called New France.

The British conquest in the mid-18th-century meant Quebec

The province has retained its Francophone character, even though

Festival organiser Stefan Perrin exemplifies the separatist dilemma.

He sees himself as a Quebecer first and a Canadian second.

But like many Scottish voters, he fears the economic consequences

Are we going to be still with the Canadian dollar?

Are we still going to trade with our neighbours, Ontario?

Is it going to be that easy to trade with the other Canadian provinces?

How would the Americans consider us if we decided to separate, to split?

Those were big concerns for a big part of the population.

In their decades-long struggle, Quebec separatists have suffered

Adding to the agony, they came within 1% of securing a

The lesson from Quebec for Scotland is that independence is a multiphase

affair, according to the politicians who advised the SNP.

They just had a new parliament in 1997 and now they are already having

To me, if it won't work this time, it might next time.

From laws protecting the French language to control over

immigration, Quebec has achieved a great deal of autonomy.

But another lesson for Scotland - that's thought to have dampened

Despite two separate referenda, despite the fact the last poll was

almost 20 years ago, the question of independence hasn't really been

In Canada, they even have a phrase to describe this long-protracted

constitutional struggle - they call it the Neverendum Referendum.

But for all the celebrations of Quebec's distinctive culture,

there's no great appetite right now for a third referendum.

Many feel that the history of this province has not yet reached

Independence - that struggle may be more a part

With me is Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, an international market

research firm that measures of public opinion and consumer

You have already corrected me on the plural of referendum being

referendums, so thank you, but your organisation at the weekend put the

yes campaign ahead 51-49 at the weekend, I'm undecided voters. What

should we take away from that one snapshot of just over 1000 voters?

Firstly, it's too close to call. A 2-point lead does not definitely

show yes is in the lead, it's within the margin of error. However we have

shown a progressive closing of the gap from a few weeks ago, and if we

look into the innards of the poll, especially people we have questioned

more than once, what is absolutely clear, a number of no voters are

switching to yes, and a lock of the undecideds are making up their minds

going much more to yes than to no. The move towards yes is real, recent

and big. So more importantly there is a trend, why is there a trend

towards yes in the latter stages? The reason is that the no campaign

was built very much on the fear factor, that Scotland's economy and

prosperity would be at risk. Those fears are subsiding. More and more

people think London is bluffing. When a London government says

Scotland couldn't keep the pound, which is what Alex Salmond says it

wants... He has been leading the yes campaign. The argument over the

pound is a thing that the no campaign has been hammering. That is

right, London has been saying you are independent, sort out your own

currency. Alex Salmond is saying, of course we are part of the pound and

when push comes to shove, London will have to come to terms...

Increasingly, people are agreeing with Alex Salmond. Secondly, the

fear is that Scotland's economy will go down the tubes. Those fears are

subsiding. A further factor, Alex Salmond, if you stay in the union,

you are going to be subject to Tory policies, Tory laws coming from

London, a Conservative led government. The biggest group moving

across are Labour supporters. A month ago, only 18% of Labour voters

in Scotland said they would vote yes. That has doubled in a month to

35%. Alex Salmond is playing the Tory London card and winning a lot

of Labour voters. The politics may lead to a result one way or another,

but let's internationalise for a second. If the Spanish government is

watching, they have a population in Catalonia that wants a referendum,

maybe the QuebecoISwatching, what will people make of this if Scotland

goes independent? -- the Quebecois. It is not the first time parts of

countries have seceded, you had checkers wackier breaking up into

the Czech Republic and Slovakia, but it would be the first time a stable

economic country has spread out like this. -- you had checkers wackier

breaking up. It is not civil war, economic upheaval, anything like

that, this is a reasonably stable, healthy, civil society saying

perhaps, narrowly in ten days' time, we choose to go our own way and

cease to be part of the United Kingdom. I think people in

Catalonia, Quebec, other places around the world are saying, if they

can do it, perhaps we can too. It's a big deal, Peter. Thank you. Ten

days to go, I imagine we will be having you back.

In Baghdad, a vote has begun to form a new government for the country.

It is considered to be a key step in the struggle against Islamic State.

Iraq's parliament is reconvening to try to approve a new government.

It's a critical step in the fight against Islamic State

militants who are occupying parts of Iraq and Syria.

On Sunday, the Arab League promised to do its part to stop

The town of Duluiyah briefly fell to the Sunni-dominated Islamic State

group for few days in July, but the Jabour tribesmen,

who have aligned themselves with the Iraqi forces in the battle against

Jim Muir is in Irbil. Where is Baghdad in putting together this

elusive, inclusive government? It does seem to be happening. The

session of Parliament began a short while ago. It got off to a rocky

start, quite a lot of barracking from MPs. Quite a number stayed out

in the corridors and didn't actually join proceedings going on inside.

Some bad vibes there. A prime ministerial nominee is currently

addressing parliament laying out the programme, and he will shortly

introduce the ministers he has chosen to implement that and will

ask for a vote of confidence in them. In his opening address, he

talked about an administrative revolution, he talked about

decentralisation, introducing balance within the Armed Forces,

which is very important because the current Iraqi army is seen as a bit

of a Shia militia, certainly a bit weak on the Sunni front. The whole

idea of this new government is to bring everybody on board, that is

what the Americans and others are looking for. We have yet to hear him

confirm the names of his ministers, but we have been told pretty much

what to expect. The Sunnis have got the defence Ministry, which they

would be happy about because that should put them in charge of the

army. The Shia have got the interior ministry. The man nominated there is

a Shia militia organisation, closely tied to Iran, so that may raise some

eyebrows. Otherwise, a lot of reshuffling. Well-known Foreign

Minister will become a Deputy Prime Minister. The Foreign Ministry job

that he has had for eight years, being the face of Iraq to the

outside world, will go to Ibrahim Jeffrey, a Shia politician who was

Prime Minister before the outgoing Nouri al-Maliki. We do expect this

government to be voted on and presumably passed in the coming

minutes. It might be a bit of a long night for you. Keep us updated.

Thanks, Jim. Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko

has said that pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine have released 1,200

prisoners. He was speaking during a visit to

the strategic south-eastern port city of Mariupol, the last city

in Donetsk region still held by the Ukrainian government,

which has come under shelling from The announcement follows Friday's

ceasefire deal, which has been described

by the head of the OSCE as shaky. Meanwhile the EU says it's imposing

further sanctions on Russia because of its continued involvement

in the crisis in Ukraine. Russia has responded by saying

it may block some international Through all of this, it's the people

in the region who continue to suffer.

To the neighbours, who watched them grow up.

The family want the story of Carolina, aged six, and her disabled

Shellfire killed them both on the day the cease-fire was declared.

She was taking care of them when they were killed.

She cries, God, why have you taken them?

Like Nikita and Carolina, they lived in places where land

became something men were willing to kill for.

Children faced death and displacement with their families,

driven to makeshift camps like this old Soviet era holiday resort.

The propaganda pictures of forgotten heroes yellowing

The war has distorted life and disrupted normality.

I want to go home, but there is no home to go to, she says.

In the crowded bunk rooms, medical aid is being provided,

including the help of psychologists for traumatised children.

They have of course been traumatised by the conflicts, hearing shelling

and bombs, fleeing their homes and not being in their normal

environment. It has a huge impact on the psychology of those children.

It is a serious situation for those displaced people.

If the conflict continues, this will worsen, definitely.

The cease-fire is supposed to end the random cruelty that destroys

the lives of children like Nikita and Carolina.

But for their parents, it is a truce empty of meaning.

Now a look at some of the day's other news.

The World Health Organisation says the ebola virus is spreading

It's warning that many thousands of new cases may emerge there in the

next three weeks and that measures to stop it spreading were not

working. Liberia has recorded almost 1,100 deaths out

Rescue workers are battling hard to reach villagers stranded

in remote areas of Indian administered Kashmir after

Six days of rain have caused floods and landslides and killed almost

three in 20 people. That my 320 people.

A five-year-old British boy whose parents took him from a hospital in

Britain last month has arrived in the Czech Republic for radiotherapy

Ashya King has been at the centre of an international legal wrangle.

His parents were arrested and detained

We're -- to Afghanistan now, and more instability looms there because

one of the two presidential candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, has

said he will reject the outcome of the second round of the disputed

election. The results are expected this week. The election has been

gridlocked for months. Both sides allege voter fraud.

With the disputed Afghan election process now entering its

one of the candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, has had enough.

He said he would not accept the results of the audited vote

as he believes it has not discovered fraud and despite

a personal appeal from President Obama, he told me that talks for a

government of national unity, backed by the US, are at a dead-end.

The future Afghanistan, which will be a viable partner with

the international community, to be able to deal with the challenges,

the challenges that Afghanistan has faced or global peace has faced in

this part of the world, could not be based on the foundation

The announcement was made to a room packed with supporters.

One prominent backer, a former head of the intelligence service,

said the deal had foundered because

A political settlement, ensuring equal partnership, should

The timing of Dr Abdullah's announcement was highly charged,

coming as Afghanistan prepares to commemorate the death of the former

guerrilla leader killed in 2001,

Dr Abdullah appealed to his followers not to protest

violently, but his message that he would not recognise a government

that may be about to come to our that does not include his people

Dr Abdullah has appealed for peace, but at the same time,

he has said that any negotiations are now over and that he won't

accept a government led by his opponent.

This feels like a very dangerous moment for Afghanistan.

The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge have announced that they are

The Duchess, who is still in the very early stages

of pregnancy, is suffering once again from acute morning sickness.

This time, she is being treated by doctors at Kensington Palace.

The BBC's royal correspondent Nicholas Witchell reports.

William was there at a long planned visit to Oxford

today, but Catherine couldn't make it, and Kensington Palace realised

that it would have to explain the reason for her unexpected absence.

She was pregnant with the couple's second child, the Palace said,

So William was asked, how was she feeling?

It has been a tricky few days for a week or so.

I'm hoping things can settle down and she will feel better.

It's important we all focus on the big news,

That is where my thoughts are at the moment.

In December 2012, early in her pregnancy with George,

doctors hospitalised the Duchess for a couple of days.

On this occasion, with this pregnancy yet to reach the 12 week

stage, it is hoped the sickness can be managed at home and that it

George was a summer baby, born in July last year.

The chances are that his younger brother or sister will be due in the

He or she will automatically come fourth in line to the throne,

fulfilling William and Catherine's obligation to ensure that

The Queen, seen here at the Braemar Gathering near Balmoral at

I think George will be over the moon.

The family continues to grow. a younger brother or sister.

News of the pregnancy is making headlines around the world.

International fascination with Britain's royal family

Hugo Vickers is a writer and broadcaster and he joins us from our

studio in Reading. You have written extensively about the Royal Family.

This is interesting, married couple expecting second baby. Why is that a

story that has lit up headlines around the world and social media?

Of course, it is a very happy story, and the monarchy has been doing for

many generations. So anything to do with the monarchy always attract

attention. But it is because the Cambridges themselves are such a

popular figure. Wherever they go in the Commonwealth, they seem to make

people feel happy. So we are all very much on their side and

rejoicing alongside them that there is more good news on the way.

Everyone seems to be getting in on the congratulations. I was looking

at Twitter and apparently, the royal baby # has been used 50,000 times,

the worst one from an international pizza chain that says

congratulations. May we humbly suggest naming the royal baby Pizza?

I will not name that chain! Everyone seems be getting in on the act. It

is internationally big news. It is. At the time of the royal wedding,

everybody got excited about Prince William. I know that royal weddings

are a cause of great excitement, but I remember wondering at the time why

this was so much the case with him. I think the real reason was that the

world had probably last seen Prince William when he was a forlorn

teenager following his mother's coffin, and he didn't go off the

rails. He went through school and universe tea and met a nice girl

with freedom of choice. They are clearly happy together and that is a

great story. I think it has gone on like that. The arrival of Prince

George was very much welcomed, and wherever Prince George has been

taken, he is a huge success. Funny you should talk about that, because

I remember at the time of the royal wedding, I interviewed the Queen of

American journalism, Barbara Walters, who said that was the

reason America were going crazy about the royal wedding, because

everybody remembered the tragedy of Diana, and now they have something

happy to talk about. We also saw in that report, Prince Harry was saying

great, I am not going to be king. There is also an issue for this

second baby. Prince George is the heir to the throne and now there is

a spare as well, as they say. Yes, that is the traditional duty as your

commentator said. They must keep the Protestant succession going. It may

be that they will have another child after that. Of course, supposing

they have a girl, she would automatically be after Prince

George. If there was a younger brother, he would not overtake her

the wake since Andrew and Prince Edward overtook Princess Anne. So

that is a change. And Will this child be born as a prince or

princess of the United Kingdom? Will Scotland be involved? We hope so.

That is a whole new area of conversation. Sadly, we don't have

time to get into that. Thanks for joining us. And thank you as well

The weather is looking fine and settled for the next few days and

for the week ahead, with high pressure in charge. Tomorrow could

have a misty start of the day, but sunny spells are soon developing. We

could start Tuesday morning on a chilly note, particularly from any

rural areas, but that mist and fog soon clears away. We are looking at

bright skies. Perhaps