Flooding: Are You as Safe as You Think? Week In Week Out

They have got to use the bottom of the house as the stairs.

Yes, it's been another winter of storms.

But are the official excuses wearing a bit thin?

This is the 13th flood we have had in two and a half months.

Now new evidence suggests we may need to go back

We are grossly underestimating the flooding.

More lives, more properties and more livelihoods are at risk.

There are huge challenges ahead, so why don't those in charge

Flooding has brought misery to thousands across Britain

with properties devastated, lives disrupted and a clean-up

For some of us, it is a familiar story...

They say as a journalist, the first thing you need is a good

pair of shoes, but sometimes I've felt as if what I needed was a good

They've carried me from one flood disaster to the next for 30 years.

With the sea defences breached behind my .Mac

It's a bit like Groundhog Day, with the nagging feeling you're not

The big picture raises big questions.

In 2005, a devastating flood took me to Carlisle.

the pressure is growing to ensure that communities across the country

do not have to face this kind of problem again.

It's been 10 years and I can't quite believe it but I'm back in Carlisle.

People were being told it wouldn't happen again.

House after house is empty, house after house is being

Again, after David Heath -- again, after devastating floods.

Both her home and her bakery business were flooded out.

The floodwater came up to here, you can see where it got to

When I came here in 2005, I seem to remember people being told

subsequently, "We won't allow this to happen again."

We were told it was a once-in-a-lifetime event.

Unprecedented. Yet, here we are again.

Did flood defences do their job here then?

I don't think the flood defences could have done any more.

They were built to a certain height that the experts said they had to be

ten years ago, and the water still came over.

I don't think Carlisle could cope with it happening a third time,

Flood defences like these costing ?38 million were meant

They were supposed to have been built high enough to take climate

But these blue ribbons show the flood water level was a half

It feels like something is being missed.

The answer could be hidden away in these hills

A team of experts, headed by world-renowned geologist

have been gathering information for decades.

He took me to one location that could unlock the puzzle of why

we are seeing such large floods events.

We're standing on the south bank tributary of the Cambrian Mountains.

This is the Nant Cwmdu and it's got a wonderful record

These table-size boulders have been moved over the last 100 years

Well, Mark, how do you read this landscape?

These are significant, Tim, as they're a record

That tells us they were moved here by a very

large flood and as they move down, they tumble over

That shape tells us it's been moved by water and that shape

is essential because it tells us we are measuring a flood deposit

The size of the boulders reveals the scale of the flood.

And the scientists can work out when it happened thanks

The growth rate of lichen on these boulders shows they were deposited

In terms of flow depth, it would have just been

I would have been swept down, so, yes, a very big flow of water,

which we estimate to be at about 4 metres a second.

What happens in the hills plays out further down in our river valleys.

And this year, there were floods again in Wales.

Well, the skies are clear, but it's been raining all night

and look what it's done to this river.

Conwy Valley's rising flood water has become a fact of life

and for the people of Llanrwst, that makes them feel

On Boxing Day, Llanrwst was hit by floods - again.

Defences which were meant to protect part of the town didn't hold back

Are you dry? Hello, I am Tim, nice to meet you.

A very nicely decorated living room, put a lot of care and attention in

and here we are with the furniture all piled up again.

The council said this would never happen again in Conwy Terrace,

It's your home and it's been flooded four times now.

I checked the back drain, that is often a sign.

Then I flushed the toilet and the water was staying up

I said to Debbie, we'd better get the family down and start moving

People on the street and were looking and coming down to help

others. After flooding ten years ago,

a new Dutch dam system was installed But on Boxing Day, flooding brought

confusion and the barrier which might have helped

wasn't put up in time. They were actually trying to get

the plates off the road. With six inches of water on them,

it was too late. Then water was coming

into the houses next door. When that barrier was

constructed, did you think, "We won't have to go

through this again?" The only thing we can do now is move

upstairs. We have to use the bottom of the

house as a seller. Natural Resources Wales

plans, builds and repairs Five years ago, it spent ?7 million

to protect Llanrwst. It says it only spends money on such

schemes after carrying out Despite this, locals

are still left frustrated. I think the people particularly

are angry that there was a preventative measure

in place that wasn't used. When the scheme was first initiated,

the idea was to take the wall down and waterproof it and rebuild it,

and to raise higher the section, but when it was implemented,

money could not be found for that, Presumably, an assessment was made

that they could not afford to do it. We can't afford it and

perhaps we don't need to. Oh, yes, the gentleman

in Conway Terrace you've spoken And it will go on flooding

unless something quite drastic is done to increase the height

of that wall and improve that wall. Even though hundreds of millions

have been spent on flood defences across the country, every year

in recent years they fail somewhere. When that happens, one word

is trotted out again and again... We are talking about the nature with

the unprecedented rainfall. This is unprecedented.

On Saturday night we saw an unprecedented amount of rainfall.

I want to scream because it's not true.

There were much bigger floods in the past and they need

These are real floods that have happened in the past, not models.

Across Wales, river levels are monitored by gauges like these.

It's information used by Natural Resources Wales

The NRW's flood map has a lot of information about the type

of flood risk for those who live and work in vulnerable areas.

But there is a fundamental problem because that information is almost

all based on data gathered by river gauges, or instrumental records

So it's a bit like reading a really good history book

that ignores anything that happened before 1960.

And according to the geologists at Aberystwyth University,

it means that huge floods they have discovered on our rivers have not

been included in the NRW's flood risk model.

So crucially, they say the risk is being underestimated.

We had, in the late 18th century, 20% to 30% larger floods

than what we're seeing in the instrumental records.

If you go further back to long-term sedimentary records,

you're looking at floods 20% larger than that as well.

So we're actually at flood magnitudes that may be approaching,

in some areas, the Upper Severn to parts of Mid Wales,

where flood magnitudes could be anywhere between 20%,

and let's say, 40% higher than what we've seen

We will need to re-think and re-map our flood plains to look

Then we're going to put more properties and lives

Natural Resources Wales says it doesn't accept

that it is underestimating flood risk in Wales.

It says it does use historic river gauge data where it exists,

and it continues to update its flood maps as techniques improve.

Wales might not have been affected as much as other parts of the UK

this year, but those who've been flooded feel flooding

In the Vale of Glamorgan, the owners of this pub feel

they are running out of answers, as they are counting the cost

of their fourth flood in seven years.

We were closed for two weeks in December.

Here, it's the River Ely that's the culprit.

The NRW have been out and had a look but it's not cost effective to do

any work, as I'm the only person affected.

My hands are tied and before long, I won't be able to pay

In Llanrwst, another business is suffering.

Here one of the great old houses of Wales,

which has undergone 20 years of restoration,

could be destroyed if the floods persist.

Judy and Peter are the owners the historic Tudor Gwydir Castle

which they have opened to the public.

This is the 13th flood we've had in two months,

Are those people who are in a position to do something about it

listening? We get political answers to our questions, it is very

frustrating. Nothing is happening, we are talking, they just keep

telling us they're going to review the situation but it doesn't help

us. The Boxing Day Flood was just a foot of the top of the war, so the

sellers were 7 feet underwater, so we were just about to evacuate the

famous 17th-century dining room, brought back with public money from

the New York Metropolitan Museum, 1 of the most famous rooms of its date

from Wales and we were about to evacuate. We only weren't flooded

because the embankment, the flood defence to the north of this point

here, failed. Had that not failed, we would have been completely

inundated. The NRW says there are no current

plans to update the flood defences But if the flood risk plans

are underestimating the real flood risk, then communities like Llanrwst

could be living on borrowed time. It's not just geologists

in Aberystwyth who are finding evidence that we're

underestimating the risk. Just down the road from the college

is the National Library of Wales. Within its walls are local papers

going back to the 19 century - So while government ministers and

heads of the environment agency have been talking about unprecedented

floods, the Aberystwyth Observer was using the same expression in 1879.

It says here, a storm of unprecedented severity... August 9

netted 57, we are told a thunderstorm which swooped on Monday

afternoon (Trail of havoc. But anyone who cares to look my history

and report of today are readily available, showing major flooding

between 1840 and 1957. Surprisingly, it is evident which is used by

Natural Resources Wales when it decides how best to protect

communities from flooding in the future. The report of destruction

much the date of geological Flood data being gathered by Professor

Macklin and his team. We need to aggregate the evidence in new ways,

and I think it that is vitally important in protecting UK society

as we move through the 21st century. The vocation of what is being

claimed his huge -- the implication. It's not just the real level of risk

faced by those already living on floodplains but it affects every

decision we make on where we can safely build in future. Well today

this valley looks benign enough, when it does Flood, the water comes

here onto the floodplain which for centuries was left for that purpose.

Today, the developers are moving in here and across the country, in the

belief that man can defeat nature. in the belief that man

can defeat nature. Four years ago, this flood plain

lived up to its name and many newly Yet building continues

in flood risk areas. In Colwinston in the

Vale of Glamorgan, villagers were surprised how little

official fuss was made about a new housing

development there. This field is wet and it's known

as pond field in old mats. The report said the said the NRW had

not commented adversely Yes it does as I think a part

of this field is down here does appear in the NRW flood

map as a flooding risk. And if you look at the photographs

that we provided to the council in responding to the planning

application, that dip The community council decided

to hire their own expert. A lecturer at UCL,Dr Harvey Rodda

is also an independent hydrologist. Often called in to look

at developers' plans, he's increasingly worried

by the standard of checking carried The main frustration is I literally

feel I am doing the job the EA or NRW should be doing in properly

assessing these reports. Following Dr Rodda's report,

the developer submitted a revised flood risk assessment and planning

permission was granted last year. The council says this was done

after consulting NRW. But the NRW say they no longer

object to flood risk schemes But Dr Rodda says they should be

involved in every case where there is any

suggestion of flood risk. So based on my experience,

I'm sure there are schemes that have been built where flooding hasn't

properly been assessed There are going to be number

of examples that already fallen through the net

so to speak. We will provide our expert flood

risk advice to the local authority and if necessary we will object. Any

development on a floodplain is a seriously bad idea, isn't it? That

is taking an extreme view. You need to look at the exact type of risk

and you need to be able to see whether or not you can actually

manage that. Natural Resources Wales says it

continues to object to developments But homes are still being

built on flood plains. Much of the development we see the

place in the 80s and 90s in this period, as a consequence, we are

turning to more frequent and larger flood events, that existing

government is under threat and it in my view would be madness in terms of

continued the government in areas which we now have a significant

flood risk. This winter flooding has

brought misery to homes, hit businesses, and disrupted

our transport system. Even Natural Resources Wales'

own river gauges show flood levels And that backs up the

geologists' research. Natural Resources Wales said it's

interested in Prof Macklin's data but believes there are uncertainties

around techniques and estimates. They are not yet using it to assess

flood risk in Wales. But some countries have been

using the methodology It's an official report written

in US about dam safety In it they are using geological

flood methodology to work One of the authors is a Government

official, the equivalent The report finds the data reliable,

not that expensive to gather, and should be used as a matter

of course to help "reduce the uncertainty in estimates

of maximum flood potential." Many European countries, like Spain,

also use this information And on the other side of the world,

in New Zealand, Prof Macklin is currently busy gathering data

that will be used to assess the real flood risk for thousands of people

in the town of Lower Hutt. What frustrates me is over the last

30 years, particularly 10 years - research groups I've been

involved with in Newcastle, Leeds and Aber and also

in New Zealand we have built up a very large database

about of pre instrumental floods, both documentary

and sedimentary . We can give precise and accurate

estimates of flood magnitude that extend and pre date

the instrumental records. If we just use the instrumental

record, we are grossly Larger and more frequent floods

that we haven't planned for will test defences,

not only in Llanrwst and Aberyswyth, but every community

in Wales - including the cities of Swansea,

Newport and here in Cardiff. That has to be of major interest

for those at the Welsh Government who have to finance future flood

defences and decide where We wanted to speak to the Minister

for Natural Resources, Carl Sargeant,

but he declined our invitation. Instead, we had a statement

in response to our many questions. They pointed out that December

had been unprecedented. They said everybody knew the risk

that they faced from flooding - They also say they're confident that

correct data is being used to assess While the Government won't talk

to us, it says it is trying But its critics say

it has to do more. The implications are huge,

the implications are absolutely huge.

Financially and structurally and emotionally and psychologically

for some of these people living There are practical questions

about insurance levels for homes, mitigating measures that they,

as individuals, should put in around their properties,

for local government and ultimately It's a huge piece of work that

would need to be undertaken, I think, to re-assess all the

catchment areas in Wales, but really, if other countries

are looking at this evidence and we are not, we should be

asking - why not? So what about Natural

Resources Wales? It's curious that the body

responsible for protecting us from rising floods, refused to talk

to us about flooding. Natural Resources Wales, this is the

BBC. Many more people might need a boat in future!

Your flood maps have sprung a leak! Help, we're sinking! Natural

Resources Wales, please come and talk to us!

Come and talk to us about flooding! This is Week in, Week out. I don't

think they want to talk to us. The Welsh Conservatives

are tabling a question tomorrow Meanwhile, those communities already

dealing with the cost of flooding can only hope that

warnings will be heard. What would your message be to the

authorities? What would you take to the people responsible for defending

this community? I wouldn't be able to say it on camera! I really feel

strongly. It's very, very bad for the morale of the community. Living

with this kind of constant threat is very exhausting. We need to bring

even more pressure to bear to make them take proper account of the

flood risk here. And if they don't? We will flood again and again and

again. This is the 13th flood we have put in 2 1/2 months for sub I

call that precedent it. Not unprecedented perhaps,

but recent floods are So, is this, my Groundhog Flooding

Day, coming to an end? A few minutes ago this water was a

few inches deep and It's been said after these winter

storms it's time to re-think how We can only hope for

those on the front line, that the decision-makers

are listening, but for now, I might

just hang on to these.