Risk The David Meade Project

He caught me out and I could have lost everything.

I will go home today trying to work it out, but that's why I was at the other end of the table.

SHE LAUGHS No way!

Hello, you lucky punters.

Fancy another little flutter on the David Meade Project?

Well, here's the hot favourite now, David Meade.

-Is that an L? L?

-SHE GASPS

-Yes!

-Oh, my God!

David plays games with the human mind, and when his gambles pay off,

the results can be staggering.

It's crazy. That's insane.

How did he do it?

How?

Trouble is, when David gets an idea in his head,

he's totally prepared to risk it all.

I like to push things to the very limit,

which is terrifying for me, but the payoff can be worth it.

Roll up, roll up, you lucky people. Dear Lord!

David obviously fancies himself as a Mr Top Spiv, on the lookout

for a couple of marks, ready to risk it for a biscuit.

Watch out, you Muppets!

This is a mug's game,

because not everything

is what it seems

with David Meade.

It's a simple game of what I call One Card Monte.

You've got to place one card on the table and all the participant

needs to do is guess which card is sitting there.

That's going to seem impossible to them, that's going to seem like a one in 52.

Hopefully, though, they'll win.

David is ducking and diving out on the street.

He's looking for some random players to join him in a game of chance,

to risk more than they can afford.

In a moment, I'm going to ask you to make a guess

as to what you think this card is.

But, Perry, it's only a one in 52, so you know the odds aren't

really stacked in your favour.

The chances of you getting this right are very, very slim.

This is a big risk, but what's your guess?

-King of Hearts.

-King of Hearts.

-Now, you haven't gambled anything on this.

-No.

Which is such a shame! Such a shame!

I'm going to ask you to make your first guess

at what this card might be.

-Three of Hearts.

-Three of Hearts.

You've actually done really, really well. Really well!

-How does that feel that you got that right?

-Wish I'd put money on it now.

'Phase on is simple, I want to build up their confidence.'

The minute that their confidence is built up,

their perception of risk changes and they'll be willing to risk everything,

regardless of how unlikely they are of winning.

No, David isn't a bookie, he's a bookworm!

You can bet your bottom dollar he's using his special skills

to control these odds.

His main skill is mentalism, the art of mind manipulation.

Today, he's making people take risks.

What I want to build in them is supreme self-confidence.

The idea that they can't lose.

The minute that they're there, they're exactly where I need them.

Now, it's only one in 52, there's no way that you could know what it is.

What do you think the chances are of getting this right?

-One in 52.

-Yeah, you're right, one in 52. It's really on.

I'm going to ask you now, for the first time, with all of these odds

stacked against you, Tasha, what's your guess?

-Jack of Diamonds.

-Jack of Diamonds.

There's a really slim chance of getting this right.

-It's so slim, you probably wouldn't gamble on it, would you?

-No.

That was really stacked against you, Tasha.

Everything was stacked against you, but you got it right.

Do you feel confident after last time?

-Oh, aye.

-Do you want to gamble some stuff on it?

-What have you got there of value?

-A phone.

-A phone? I'll have your phone.

I can't believe David's techniques are working.

She's risking it all with nothing to win. It seems she's lost the plot when judging the odds.

-Don't tempt me.

-Give me the chain. I'll take the chain. Why not?

We've got a combined value here of about £15.

-As I said, I like you, so I want to make it easy for you.

-Right.

If you name any card that isn't this card, then you're a winner. OK?

All you need to do is name any card that isn't that card. Tasha, go ahead.

-Three of Clubs.

-OK. Everything was stacked in your favour.

You needed to name any card but the three of Clubs. Sorry, Tasha!

Look at this! King Ding-a-ling.

OK, you've made your point, David.

Game over. Now give the stuff back, please.

You get something right the first time, it always gives you a wee boost

to do it the second time, because you always get that wee bit luckier.

-It's always better second time round.

-OK, then.

Back to the job in hand.

It's a little bit like the lottery. Because you know that you have very

little chance of winning, you only play £1 or £2 a week.

If you knew that you had a one in ten chance of winning, you might

pay £50 a week, because your odds of winning are massively increasing.

I want to take them to that same state,

that point at which they feel there is virtually no risk.

Now, the odds here are dramatically stacked in your favour.

What is your second guess?

-Six of Clubs.

-Six of Clubs?

-Yeah.

Sorry, Aoife!

First of all, I'd like to thank you for taking part.

All you need to do is name any one of these cards that isn't this one.

-Seven of Diamonds.

-Seven of Diamonds?

-Yeah.

Sorry, Perry!

First of all, I'd like to thank you for your... Oh, yeah!

I put my purse, my bank card, my passport, my phone, everything on it.

He caught me out.

I could have lost everything, so don't risk it.

Playing with risk and the odds has given David a new idea.

Always beat the odds? That would be

an amazing thing to pull off,

to win every time, no matter what the risk.

I'll bet David reckons he has an answer for it all.

He probably thinks he's got some risk-beating system.

I'm fascinated by how we perceive risk but, more specifically, how

that perception affects the amount of risk we're willing to take.

Odds are very confusing things.

The fact is, we don't have the capability to easily

understand what a set of odds means in real terms.

Professional card counters in places like Las Vegas know how to

capture all of the probability and the odds.

It's with that information that they make what look like really risky

decisions, but the fact is, they are not risky,

they're well-informed decisions.

That's why they reap huge financial rewards.

I'd like to use all of my skills as a mentalist to see

if they can allow me to take even bigger risks

when I know all of the variables and all of the odds.

David never ceases to amaze, and he's going to treat us all

to a little bit of his favourite sport. Who knew?

I've chosen a sport that's a real passion for me.

I've been playing it for years now.

Apparently, David is a keen competitor in one of the most popular

and traditional national pastimes.

Statisticians talk about statistics and probability,

but gamblers talk about odds.

I'm really interested in odds today.

I wonder if I study all of the variables, and I mean everything -

the equipment, my opponent, the room, the temperature, even

the lighting - can that increase my odds of winning at a game of skill?

Uh-oh. Blimey. There's David's first risk of the day.

-HIS JOINTS CRACK

-Oh, no. What's he up to?

All right, don't overdo it.

I've chosen my participant for this test very carefully. The reason I've

selected him is he's really competitive.

A little bit like me. He's going to be playing a game of tiddlywinks.

Tiddlywinks, I might have known.

Tiddlywinks is the future.

I'm just excited to see what's going to happen.

The rules of this test are really simple.

He's got a bowl of 400 or 500 tiddlywinks of various colours.

And they're regulation colours, I'm not an amateur.

He can choose any tiddlywinks he likes

and play for as long as he likes,

chipping them into the bowl, and he can stop whenever he wishes.

I just hope that by knowing all of the variables,

I can beat him at this game, because this is going to be tough.

Let the tiddlywinks begin!

David understands the odds.

He's confident his calculated risk on the outcome will pay off.

If not, he'll lose his shirt,

although that might not be a bad thing.

You're going to play tiddlywinks for as long as you like.

Whenever you feel like you're done, just say so.

But before that, I want to give you my lucky tiddlywink.

Do me a favour, put that in your fist, nice and tight,

and put that inside your pocket for me. Anywhere that you like.

We'll come back to that, that's for luck.

It will hopefully make your job a bit easier.

These are the rest of my set of lucky tiddlywinks, but I'll keep them here.

-Do you think I need luck?

-I think you need luck. I mean, look at you!

THEY LAUGH You see my style here, David?

This is an unorthodox style.

Between you and me, there's a camera set up under the table to check

there's no funny business

and David doesn't chuck in

a few cheeky extras.

-You are a very proficient flicker.

-I'm telling you.

I'm genuinely impressed with how well you're doing.

-It's as well you've got safety glasses on.

-This could be failure.

La-la-la-la!

Rules of the game, Stephen can keep tiddlywinking

until he's decided he's had enough.

Ah, you actually hit me in the face!

-Are you done?

-I'm out.

Let's see how you've done.

You've got... Let's look at the total.

HE COUNTS

15 in is genuinely impressive.

-You could have went on as long as you liked.

-Mm-hm. Yes.

Do you have my lucky tiddlywink that I gave you at the start?

-I do indeed, yes.

-Can I see it?

I'm conscious of where you put it, it may be a little sweaty.

-Put it down?

-Do you just want to

count it for me?

Go over and double-check.

HE COUNTS

-15.

-15.

-Yes.

Whenever you're ready, Steve, I'd like you to look at the other

side of my lucky tiddlywink.

OK, I'll turn it over.

HE LAUGHS

15? You could have stopped

-whenever you liked.

-Yes.

David wouldn't risk a thing without a few more lucky

tiddlywinks beside him. Let's hope they don't let him down now.

These are green, red, blue and yellow.

Whenever you're ready, turn over the yellow one for me.

There's going to be a number on this, isn't there?

-HE LAUGHS

-What is it, three?

-How many yellows?

-Definitely three yellows.

-Three there?

How many blues?

-Turn over the blue.

-HE LAUGHS

I think you see where this is going. You can turn over the last two.

HE LAUGHS

-Three.

-My final wink.

HE CONTINUES LAUGHING

-Three, four, three, five.

-Incredible.

That's just blown me away.

I had the lucky chip in my pocket the whole time and I didn't

really know where he was going with it.

I will go home today trying to work it out,

but that's why I was at the other end of the table.

Thank goodness that worked.

The fact is, human beings

are naturally really bad at judging odds.

That's why bookies are still in business.

People like me, mentalists, like to exploit those misunderstandings.

Uh-oh. Looks like the biggest risk David could take right now

is to get too overconfident.

The trouble with all risk, it's addictive.

David's got the bug and he wants to take bigger and bigger risks.

I'd like to try something big.

I'd like to try something with virtually impossible,

maybe even improbable, odds.

The chances of a meteor hitting Earth right now is one in 1,000.

I think I can do better than that.

Don't worry, the nutter can't put his hands on a meteor.

He's going to use a dart, and he's found another reckless chancer,

I mean, daring participant, to help him in his latest caper.

I'm going to give my participant the opportunity to choose any

location in the United Kingdom.

And when I say any, I mean any. There are tens of thousands.

My job is to see if I can predict it.

David is going to risk it all with Joanne,

who will throw the dart.

To increase the risk, he's picked someone who isn't a dart player.

-SHE LAUGHS

-Oi! That's no laughing matter, missy.

Sometimes, I think that people say that I'm not confident

about an experiment because I'm just doing that for dramatic effect.

I can honestly say, what I'm about to try is the riskiest thing I have ever done.

-I'm going to take a bit of a risk today.

-OK.

In front of you, we have a huge map of the UK and Ireland.

I'm going to have you choose one location on that map.

How we're going to do that is, I'm going to give you a dart.

You're going to throw that down, it's going to land on a page,

that's going to be your chosen page.

-OK.

-But, before we do that, do me a favour, I'd like your autograph.

If you could just sign that for me, nice and big.

Lovely penmanship. Beautiful. Look at that Y. Excellent.

Now, Joanne, I'm going to go down there and mix up this map.

The reason I want to do that

is so that you can't aim for somewhere you know,

or somewhere that you've gone on holiday.

-So, entertain yourself for a couple of minutes.

-OK.

-And as I'm doing this, please keep an eye on me to make sure that I don't switch any pages.

-OK.

I don't want you to keep track of where all the locations are,

I want this to be super random.

Let me see. I don't want you to have any specific location in mind.

Are you thinking of anywhere?

If you are, try and block it out of your head.

No, I'm not thinking of anywhere.

Excellent. I think that will just about do.

-Joanne, are you happy that this is nicely mixed up?

-Yep.

-Brilliant.

So, Joanne, do you think there is any way you could follow

-or track any of those locations now?

-No.

-OK.

I've made a video for you, and it was only for you.

-I made it weeks ago.

-OK.

-Let's go ahead and play the video.

-OK.

'Hello, there. Thank you for coming and helping me. What's your name?'

Joanne.

'A bit meaningless to me, given that I've recorded this message

'for you weeks in advance.'

Ignore him, Joanne, he's very rude.

'Hello David, how are you?'

Really well, thanks.

'I think you've put on a little weight.

'Anyway, never mind. Let's try something. Think of a number, David.'

14. Shhh.

-'Is it 14?'

-HE GASPS

So talented!

'So talented. By now, David should have explained to you what's about

'to happen. In front of you, there should be a jumbled-up map.

'You should also have a dart.

'In a moment, you're going to throw that dart, but not yet.

'You're going to throw that dart anywhere you like towards that map.

'Whenever you're ready, after I count to three,

'get ready to throw that dart.

'One, two, three, throw the dart.'

OK, you got a page there. Good shot!

'Right now, David, go ahead and pick up that page. Chop chop!

'Keep an eye on him to make sure he doesn't switch that page.'

OK, Joanne, keep a good close eye.

You have got somewhere with quite a lot of writing.

It could have been any of these pages.

You've got somewhere with quite a lot of writing, but...

Keep a good eye, make sure that I don't try to switch it.

-This is exciting.

-Yeah.

SHE LAUGHS

Now, let me see.

'Now that you've got a page,

'I want you to take a marker

'and draw an X anywhere you like on that page.

'Hopefully, wherever you've marked on that page,

'is close to somewhere or something and not in the middle of the ocean.

'Right now, for the first time,

'I'd like you to call out loud where you've drawn that mark.'

-Fulham.

-Fulham. Have you ever been there before?

-No.

-Any particular reason why you chose it, or was it random?

-Random.

So you've said Fulham.

I have this envelope that you signed at the very start.

Inside this envelope is a piece of paper. Go ahead and open it up, Joanne.

'If that has worked,

'David should just have revealed

'to you the precise place that you

'selected randomly from all of those pages and all of those places.

'Just in case you think that he's done anything funny or cheated,

'I'm going to take this and seal it in a envelope...'

-That's the exact same page.

-No way?!

-Weeks ago.

-No way?!

Weeks ago.

'..so that you know that the me next to you isn't trying to cheat.'

SHE SQUEALS

'In the meantime, I've got a plane to catch...from Fulham.'

SHE LAUGHS No way?!

Of all the places you could have chosen!

Even on that page that you selected from all of those pages,

an atlas of the entire UK and Ireland,

you chose the one place, Fulham.

I can't believe it! You did that, that's incredible.

I'm just amazed! I'm actually speechless.

I threw a dart, chose a random place on a map,

and he's done a video before and he's in Fulham.

I can't describe the feeling, can't describe it. Absolutely amazing!

The funny thing about this game is,

I can't believe that it didn't go wrong.

I can't believe it! I mean, it's so improbable.

The odds of her getting the one place that

I had been in weeks ago is just improbable.

It's so small, it's incalculable.

That was undoubtedly the biggest risk I've ever taken

in all of the games or experiments I've ever done.

I honestly can't believe it.

But, believe it or not, that's not the end of it.

These jelly rings in boxes are not to satisfy David's sweet tooth. Oh, no.

He's become addicted to risk and needs to up the dose.

This time, adding a stronger ingredient to the mix.

The level of risk that we feel is directly related to

the meaningfulness of that which we are risking,

and so the risk seems far greater when we're risking something that we care about.

And that's what I want to play with today.

But what have jelly rings got to do with emotional risk? Ah-ha!

David wants to know what it's like to risk the things you really love.

And he's chosen a couple that have everything to lose.

-Nice to meet you.

-How are you keeping?

-I'm grand, how are you?

-Ryan, isn't it?

-Yes.

-How's tricks? Are you nervous?

-A wee bit.

-What are you nervous about?

-I don't know.

-I understand you've gotten engaged, is that right?

-Yeah.

Can I see the ring? Oh, lovely, that is beautiful.

I won't ask how much it cost, but I will ask you,

-"Can I take that?"

-Hmm. OK.

-A little bit wary?

-Yeah.

Oh, so that's his game. You don't want to risk that one!

I'm really excited about this one. I've got 450 ring boxes.

Inside all those, I've placed a jelly ring,

because that's the type of big spender I am(!)

I've got two participants here. They're engaged.

I'm going to borrow their engagement ring and hide it in

one of these boxes, and then we're going to play a simple game of risk.

All they need to do is find their ring.

For David, this is just a game with a ring, but this

happy couple are risking so much more.

Lindsay had set out exactly what type of ring she wanted,

so I hunted high and low, trying to find which was the nicest one.

The ring means quite a lot to me because I know Ryan spent a lot

of money and went out of his way to pick the perfect ring.

For him to take it off me, it feels like there's something missing.

The game is really simple.

It only uses 450 boxes, which have taken me hours to lay out.

450 jelly rings that are all inside. It will use their engagement ring,

I'll be popping that inside one of the boxes. They won't know which.

I've also got my little friend, the shovel,

and my big friend over there.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, that is an industrial shredder.

What David has failed to mention is that the groom-to-be is going

to be shovelling all those boxes into this bad boy.

One of those boxes could have his fiancee's precious ring in it.

He must be off his head!

I enjoy taking a risk, it gets a wee bit of adrenaline going.

A bit of excitement.

A wee bit of being unsure.

Brave words, indeed.

We can't show you where the ring is hidden, that would spoil it.

But once David has hidden the ring in one of these boxes

and all the lids are closed,

there are no external clues as to which one's got it.

The future missus is definitely not keen.

I don't know. He's taken my ring and that's a big step, to take somebody's

ring off them and not know whether you're going to get it back or not.

450 ring boxes, and I believe, given the great risk you've taken,

giving me your ring, he will find exactly where your engagement ring is.

-How do you feel, you feel confident about it?

-Hmm.

-Nervous, but I think he'll do it.

-OK, supreme confidence there.

What about yourself, Ryan? Are you feeling pretty good about this?

Yeah, feeling good about it. Yeah.

OK, I want you to go ahead and pick a box.

Any one that you like. Bring it over and we'll have a look inside.

Rather than open them all up just to prove there was a jelly ring

in all 450 boxes, Ryan chooses one randomly.

I bet Lindsay's hoping that's going to be hers, before the nightmare has even started.

-OK, you've got one at random?

-Got it, yeah.

-Random, yeah?

-Yeah.

I don't want to touch it, but go ahead and open up and show us what's inside.

-There we go, inside.

-Very nice.

Inside, we have a jelly ring, because I'm a pretty classy guy!

-If this goes wrong, that could be your booby prize.

-Great(!)

You can keep that for me and, if this goes wrong, that is my gift to you.

Right now, I am going to ask you, Ryan,

to eliminate all of these boxes but one.

Have a look at him playing around. He loves this, doesn't he?

-Have you ever seen one of these before?

-Yeah.

Yes, Lindsay, that's a shredder!

David seems to be enjoying this far too much.

When operating the machine, we're going to need to keep these on,

because safety first, DIY second.

Lindsay, if you'd like to go back into the room. Before you go, maybe give Ryan a wee good luck kiss.

What about me?

I meant Ryan, but you can have one if you want. In you go, Lindsay.

I don't know if Lindsay is being put in that room for her safety, or Ryan and David's.

I'm not feeling very happy. I'll be happy whenever I see my ring again.

So, Ryan, we have a pretty big room here.

I'm going to divide the room into thirds.

Would you like to eliminate this one third and shovel it into the

cruncher, or would you like to eliminate the two thirds over there?

I'll eliminate this third.

You want to eliminate this third? OK.

Ryan's not taking a risk too early, getting rid of a third.

Let's hope his hunch as to where the ring is might be right.

Would it be bad to say I'm enjoying this? Is that bad?

-You're enjoying it, or I'm enjoying it?

-Are you enjoying it, yeah?

-Yeah, I'm enjoying it.

-OK.

I'm just a wee bit dubious about what's going to happen.

Erm...

That machine's scaring me.

MOTOR STARTS

These on. These down.

Put them in there.

Doing good?

-Doing pretty good, yeah?

-Yeah, yeah.

-OK.

I'll be honest with you,

I heard something that was a little bit like metal, but we'll...

..we'll continue.

David said that he thought he heard metal going through the machine.

Was he being serious?

I don't know.

You can either keep this side and eliminate that side,

or you can keep this side and eliminate that side.

It's important that you know that the choice is totally up to you.

-I'm going to eliminate this side.

-Are you sure?

-Yeah.

-OK, Ryan, go ahead, shovel them up.

I can't believe this bloke is so sure of himself!

-You're happy that these are your random choices?

-Yes.

ENGINE HUMS

He's having a whale of a time.

Talk about boys and their toys!

There's a girl who's feeling well left out of the fun.

Oh, David, you'll ruin your tea.

Lindsay is not impressed.

They just look like they're having fun and they're not worrying about anything.

Whatever, it's my engagement ring at stake.

Worst-case scenario, what would Lindsay say?

I don't know, I think I'd have a bit of silence for a while, but...

Because this was my idea and...

-It was your idea to come on the show?

-Yeah.

Something tells me if Ryan shreds Lindsay's ring,

he's going to be losing more than his valuables.

If we were to divide it up like that, which half would you

-like to eliminate?

-This half.

Moment of truth, mate.

I'm not sure if it's dawned on Ryan what he's risking.

Only eight boxes to go

and Lindsay seems to be feeling all the pressure.

I don't know what's going to happen. He'd better have it right.

Don't know how he's going to get it right, but he'd better have it right.

Only two boxes left. Come on now, Ryan, take care!

This is your future happiness at stake.

This might be a decision you should consider carefully.

Oops! Or...

just chuck it in there like a muppet.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa!

ENGINE RUMBLES

Did you hear metal? Did you hear metal?

Where did it throw out, Ryan?

It was the lid of a can.

Ryan's risking everything on this last box.

It's where Lindsay's ring has to be.

Happy ever after? Here goes!

So, your choice, Ryan, do you want to go ahead and open it?

I'll take the shovel.

Oh, no!

Oh, no!

SHE EXHALES

-Was it this particular ring that you liked, Lindsay? This one?

-Yeah.

-Whose idea was it to come on the show?

-Ryan's.

-At least you've got your booby prize that you chose at the start.

-Mmm.

-Would that go in any way to replace your ring, Lindsay?

-No.

Is that the first one that you picked?

-The first one you decided to keep and put in your pocket?

-Yeah.

Just pull up the ring.

SHE CLEARS HER THROAT AND LAUGHS

Thank...God...

HE LAUGHS

..that...worked.

That was the first one that you gravitated towards out of all of them?

Yeah.

HE LAUGHS

The funny thing about risk is that...

when it's the most meaningful,

it can be the most terrifying, but...

-How do you feel?

-A lot better now.

-A lot better, yeah?

It's back on my finger, where it belongs.

Maybe the slightest bit of doubt was starting to come into my mind,

but I had full confidence, at the end of the day, that the ring was

not going to be shredded, so...

I wasn't quite as nervous as Lindsay.

HE LAUGHS

That would be Ryan all over.

SHE LAUGHS

He's very confident

and cocky sometimes. HE LAUGHS

Experiences like this are why I love being a mentalist.

That was absolutely incredible!

I think it shows, to me at least, that our perception of risk is

massively misguided and misinformed, but if we were all just to take

a little bit more time and study the odds, maybe we'd all be winners.

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