Africa's Population Explosion

That's all for now. I will be back

with the latest on those stories at

two o'clock.

Now on BBC News, one

of our programme highlights

from the past 12 months.

Africa is in the midst

of a baby boom.

The median age across

the continent is just 19.

In September, Alastair Leithead

investigated the potential positives

of this demographic dividend,

and the possible pitfalls,

in Africa's Population Explosion.

The population of Africa is set

to double by the year 2050.

To 2.5 billion people.

The young are moving

from the countryside to the towns.

Unfortunately for us,

in the last two, three

years it's been a deluge.

But many end up in slums and cities

are struggling to cope.

An industrial revolution

could transform African countries

and lift millions out of poverty.

Every year it grows,

20 million jobs per year

over the coming decades.

But idle youth could mean

millions more migrants

and drive many into the hands

of Islamist extremists.

And that is everyone's problem.

There is nowhere in the world

where women have more children.

Half the girls here

are married by 15.

So it isn't surprising that

children have children.

This is Zinder, on the fringe

of the Sahara desert, not far

from Nigeria's northern border.

Niger is one of the world's

poorest countries.

It is mostly agricultural.

The average number of children

born per woman is 7.6.

And Zinder it is even higher

than that, so the government and aid

agencies are trying to do

something about it.

Tucked away, out of earshot,

girls as young as ten talk

about topics many adults

here consider taboo.

Family planning, contraception,

early marriage, and

even forced marriage.

Three older girls take the lead.

The aid workers who have trained

them call this the safe space class.

Saratou is 27 and has four children.

TRANSLATION:

One of the things

we are teaching the girls

here is about early marriage

and the consequences of having

children before they are 18.

During the delivery

a girl can lose her life,

or the child could die.

Before this programme,

women had many, many kids,

but with the coming of this

programme the number

of children is really reducing.

Who decides how many

children you should have?

TRANSLATION:

My husband,

he decides that.

And that's the crux of it,

the husbands decide.

And so they started

a husbands school.

TRANSLATION:

If you give your

daughter away at 12 it

could be a disaster.

The conversation is just as open

on this side of the village.

TRANSLATION:

Having fewer children

helps the woman to be able

to breast-feed properly.

TRANSLATION:

Before we learned

from this programme many of our kids

were not healthy, but now we don't

have a problem.

This is Mudaha Musa.

He's 27 and he is one of the more

enthusiastic converts

to the fewer kids philosophy.

He and his wife have three children.

TRANSLATION:

I come

from a big family.

My father has three wives.

I have about 16 siblings.

I'm not sure how many we are,

but I think we are 16.

The idea that more children means

more hands to help on the farm

doesn't ring true with him any more.

TRANSLATION:

No, if someone has ten

children, only three,

four of them are healthy,

so it's better to have

four, that is better

for work in the field.

Truly, there is a problem

here with having too many children.

But now we have been to husband

school we know more.

We can have a child,

and wait for a while before

having the next one.

Even if some people do

change their minds and decide

to have fewer babies,

the dramatic growth in population

will take a long time to slow down.

By 2050 the number of people

in Niger will be way over triple

the 21 million here today.

The culture here is to have

many, many children.

Traditions are hard to shift.

But this is the way to do it.

Show them what the options

are at a mobile clinic.

Another case of tackling

taboos head on.

And from the crowd, Nana Aisha

decides to have a three-year

contraception implant in front

of everyone, saying

she has had three kids

and she is happy with that for now.

TRANSLATION:

I decided to do it

in front of everybody

so they can see how it is done.

Because before there were rumours

that while doing it it hurts.

And they see themselves today

that it does not hurt at all.

And it did persuade a few sceptics.

This woman said her husband had

given her permission,

in fact it was his idea,

he is educated, she told me,

and he heard the men talking

about it in husbands school.

They are small steps towards

bringing the birth rate down.

This population explosion matters.

Across Africa, but more so in Niger,

all of these young people

are a bonus if a country

is on the rise but can

also be a burden.

TRANSLATION:

The immediate

consequences of having such a high

birth rate is that it is impossible

to feed, educate, and care for all

of these children in the short term.

In the long-term the very survival

of the country is threatened

unless we take this window

of opportunity to make the most

of this youth dividend.

It could threaten the survival

of the country and encourage

different things like

terrorism and immigration.

There are few jobs

in the countryside.

On both sides of this border

between northern Nigeria and Niger,

Boko Haram recruit idle youth.

Those who can head to

the big urban areas.

From here we followed

one man who has left

to make it big in Lagos.

It is a well-trodden route from this

quiet rural village to the city.

His family are talking

about the son and brother,

the husband and father,

who left his wife and

one-year-old boy behind.

TRANSLATION:

We don't have money

to eat, so we had to send

the boy to look for money.

He sends around $100

every now and again

which they use for the farm,

food, and clothes.

It is quite a contrast,

moving from a village of 7000 people

to Africa's largest city.

This was not quite what Muktar had

in mind, but optimism

is emblazoned across his chest.

TRANSLATION:

I don't have it easy.

But I realised how much

hard it was to get work.

But you can't just sit

here without a job.

I wanted to buy and sell,

to have a shop, and to make enough

money to go back to school to get

the rest of my education.

Every day thousands of people arrive

in Lagos, Africa's largest city,

looking for the same thing,

a new start in life.

Many end up in the slums,

struggling to make a living.

Lagos has always had mixed

blessings of having to deal

with the influx of people.

Unfortunately for us,

in the last two, three years,

it has been a deluge.

We want the people to be

here to bring ideas,

values and innovation.

But we are just unable

to deal with it.

This is what an African

mega city looks like.

It is crowded, chaotic,

and crumbling.

Lagos is already struggling

to house, to look after,

and to educate the way over

21 million people

already living here.

Let alone the millions more

predicted to crush into the city.

There is an incredible

energy about the place.

It is about tapping that

and using creative thinking to turn

it into an opportunity.

The festival celebrates old Lagos.

Masquerades represent

the spirits of the dead,

returned to cleanse the city of evil

and pray for peace and prosperity.

Emerging from the rusted

tin roofs is one answer

to the prayers, building up.

Lagos has no choice but to go up.

How are we going to accommodate

all of the population?

We have to go up.

Lateef Shobelo has spent 25 years

as an urban planner in Los Angeles.

Now he has brought his skills home.

Now that we are able to go

vertically, we are able

to reduce overcrowding.

It gives the advantage of the air

space, which has been lost.

Tower blocks are not a new idea

and they are expensive,

but Lagos needs to renew

without moving people out.

One answer is creative financing,

to lure private investment

into affordable housing.

Currently we are looking

at different areas we can come up

with to introduce some of the ideas

that I have brought

from Los Angeles and see which ones

are applicable and usable here.

This is the other way

to deal with slums.

This community was cleared in March,

despite a court order protecting it.

Many people fear they will be next.

A lot of communities will be

under threat of eviction.

About 1000 people will be

rendered homeless if this

action is carried out.

If you demolish a slum,

two or three will spring

up because people need

somewhere to sleep.

There two main industries

in the slums, fishing

and dredging for building sand.

But the beach is quiet.

The people say the security forces

came and smashed up the boats.

TRANSLATION:

I am very angry.

They destroyed my boat

and my husband's boats.

We have no money.

We have had to withdraw

the children from school.

The State government cites security

reasons, and says people

are never forcibly removed,

but people here think it

just wants them out.

All of these communities

were demolished so that the rich

would benefit from it.

So, I feel strongly that the state

government is interested

in the land, but we are not

going to give in.

The basic reason is land grabbing.

The Lagos government

know that the waterfront

community is prime land.

There are big plans

for waterfront living.

A vast area as been claimed

for a Manhattan style development.

And there are other

building projects.

We are on the east end of the site.

Between here and there,

we have the Hotel...

Paul Onwuanibe is developing

a $100 million site.

Lagos has to balance a modern vision

against its growing inequality.

There will always remain

the super-rich and the people just

below the poverty line.

The hope is that over the next few

years you will see that gap bridged

as more people get jobs.

The only way to manage

a massively growing mega-city

is to invest in infrastructure,

whether it be power

lines, or rail lines.

This will be Nigeria's first-ever

electrical light railway system.

Within ten years they want six

of these lines crisscrossing

the state, keeping Lagos

on the move.

But the city is outgrowing

efforts to house, employ,

and serve its people.

We are in an urban age.

People are going to keep coming.

We have to find more creative ways

to accommodate more people.

Climate change, drought,

and a doubling population

are already testing the continent's

capacity to feed itself.

And by 2050 a quarter

of the world will be Africans.

Farming needs to be

much more productive.

Kenya is at the forefront of a big,

international effort to create

better plants that produce more

crops in the harshest conditions.

Smallholder farmers here

could easily produce

four times as much food.

Sammy Nduvi is one

of the guinea pigs.

He has replaced most of his maize

with a mixture of what are thought

of as old-fashioned crops

like millet and peas, which put

nutrients back into the soil.

TRANSLATION:

these days

we are getting less rain.

When I plant these crops I know

I will have something.

Unlike with maize.

Millet and peas normally

resist the drought.

He's also been given

new and improved plants,

hybrids he is very happy with.

TRANSLATION:

These peas are bigger,

they mature faster, and they can get

two crops in a year,

rather than one.

That is where the science comes in,

finding the best strains means

crossbreeding hundreds of plants

to isolate the traits

they are looking for.

What we are doing is trying

to combine traits, characteristics

from different plants into one,

so we end up with a superior plant

that is early maturing,

high yielding, drought tolerant,

and resistant to many

pests and diseases.

But as well as being

highly nutritious.

And this new DNA profiling lab

in Nairobi makes that

process a lot quicker.

This machine tries to understand

the differences at DNA level

in the populations of 101 crops.

It isn't genetically modifying,

but by sequencing varieties of 101

carefully chosen traditional African

food crops they can go

straight in to find the best

performing strains.

We have a random selection.

We go for selecting only those types

which contain the signatures of high

yield and for drought tolerance.

Then nutritionists have

to get people excited

about these crops in a place

where maize is everything.

So to cooking school in rural Kenya.

These smart foods used

to be staples in Kenya.

Before colonialism

brought maize along.

They are more drought

resistant, more nutritious,

and pretty easy to rustle up

into all sorts of meals.

A bit of chapati.

Oh, I have two...

And this is the pigeon pea stew.

The little bit of everything.

Very good.

CHUCKLES.

Four young farmers have been chosen

to put their farming

skills to the ultimate test...

And the other thing is to persuade

young people to stay on the farm.

This reality TV show is Kenya's

attempt to make farming cool.

It is aimed particularly

at millennials, otherwise leaving

the village for the city.

It shows that farming is a business,

that money can be made.

It also helps older

farmers up their output.

Making smallholding more productive

and profitable is one step

towards growing enough food.

But for the demographic dividend

to be cashed in, people need jobs.

Agricultural revolution

is the precursor to

industrial revolution.

Here in Ethiopia

there's a grand plan.

The first industrial park

was built in Addis Ababa.

But the biggest has just opened

south of the capital.

Ethiopia is flying high in Africa.

It has the fastest-growing economy,

albeit from a low base,

and it has become the darling

of international investors.

The industrial park

is a phenomenal project...

The architect of this industrial

revolution is meeting executives

from some of the world's

biggest textile companies.

He built it and they came.

Ethiopian workers already have

jobs making the fabric,

putting the garments together.

She says the pay isn't great but it

isn't just about money,

but about building a better future

for her and the country.

The big solution to the population

explosion in Ethiopian

is putting its young people to work.

They are building these vast

industrial parks across the country,

putting in infrastructure,

training up a workforce,

and attracting foreign companies

to make their shirts,

skirts, suits, and socks

here rather than in Asia.

As in much of Africa, China has

a hand in the expansion and sees

echoes of its own dramatic growth.

TRANSLATION:

Why did

we choose Ethiopia?

It has a stable political situation

and a peaceful society.

And it is the second

biggest country in Africa.

Without a big population

there is no market.

There is a huge amount of building

going on across Ethiopia.

The scale and ambition

is impressive.

Row after row of government

built social housing.

A new electric railway

to whisk imports and exports

between the capital and the coast.

Perhaps the most visible sign

of Ethiopia's economic

growth is its airline.

It has been dramatically expanding

over the last ten years.

It is government-owned.

Ethiopian Airlines flies

all over the world.

What better advert for

a country on the rise?

We can learn from China that making

investment in the long

term in infrastructure

is quite important.

The population is

growing by about 5%.

We need to create close

to 1 million jobs every year.

This is a big challenge.

Manufacturing has a significant

impact in job creation.

This provides an opportunity

for what we call the

demographic dividend.

But without having a policy

that is very ambitious

and aggressive, it will be difficult

and a source of crisis.

Aggressive policies

in Ethiopia mean a heavy hand.

Protests were crushed.

A state of emergency has just ended.

There were questions about lack

of freedoms and authoritarianism.

Building democracies

that are sustaining

means a lot of effort.

It needs many generations.

We recognise that.

We are going to put in a lot of

effort despite the issues we have.

Ethiopia has also built

a lot of universities,

focusing now on engineering

and technology rather than arts.

But what about the dilemma?

What is more important,

economic growth, or freedom

of speech and democracy?

It's not like one is more

important than the other,

but definitely economic growth

is a means towards democracy.

It is a path for our democracy,

a path for freedom of speech.

If there is no education

in a country, and people

are still hungry, what are

they going to speak about?

Industrialisation isn't

the only answer to Africa's

population explosion,

but it's already creating dividends

for Ethiopa's economy.

If it gets the balance right,

this could be a model to put

a continent to work.

In much of Africa, that's a big ask.

In poor countries like Niger

it seems the economy

won't come close to keeping up

with population growth.

In rich ones like Nigeria

it comes down to good

thoughts and good actions.

Even if the speed and scale

of urban growth offers

its own set of challenges.

This African population

explosion is coming,

and its impact will be

felt across the globe for good

or for bad.