08/03/2017 100 Days

As the world prepares for Brexit, the British government boasts

of an economy that continues to grow.

Growth forecasts are up - borrowing is down -

As we start negotiations to exit the European

Union, this budget takes forward our plan prepare Britain

UK growth is expected to slow slightly next year but so far

the economy has defied the forecasts of most economists -

You don't think the IMF did get it wrong in this case?

Also, after the CIA's cyber warfare secrets are revealed,

we ask who are Wikileaks and what do they really want.

How India's silicon valley hopes to benefit from

And it is International Women's Day - the 115th

celebration of its kind - we've come along way since 1911,

Ten months ago, Britain stood on the edge of the precipice.

A vote for Brexit - said the government -

The hit to the UK economy would be so great, there would be

spending cuts and tax rises, almost immediately.

Well, what a difference ten months on.

As the country prepares to start the Brexit process, Phillip Hammond,

today's Chancellor of the Exchequer, was sounding a very different tone.

I report today on an economy that has continued to confound

A labour market delivering record employment and a deficit down by

As we start negotiations to exit the European

Union, this budget takes forward our plan to prepare Britain

And the reason for this cautious optimism is the growth rate

for the UK economy - for 2017 it has been revised

upwards from 1.4 to 2%, while employment is forecast to grow

Far from the immediate recession predicted

by Remain campaigners - and Mr Hammond was one of them -

Reflecting the recent strength in the economy,

the OBR has upgraded its forecast for growth next

And Mr Deputy Speaker, I don't see too many

people on the opposition front bench doing this.

In 2018-2019, growth is forecast to slow to 1.6%, before

picking up to 1.7%, then 1.9%, returning to 2% in 2021.

Here in the UK the spotlight is fixed on the new taxes Mr Hammond

But generally speaking, the outlook is more positive

than many had expected, despite those slightly lower

forecasts for growth in the years in which the UK will be

Which is surely some embarrassment to the IMF.

They predicted a recession soon after a leave vote.

I spoke to the Managing Director of the IMF,

Christine Lagarde, yesterday - here's what she had

The IMF had been negative, pessimistic about the prospects

for the British economy post if Brexit were to take place.

Actually, it hasn't panned out like that, so far at least.

Are you revising your forecasts on the British

We did revise in January, as we published the update

And we will be very attentive to the industrial activity results,

to service activity results, to the way the sterling is behaving

If we get something wrong, we are the first ones to admit.

You don't think the IMF did get it wrong in this case?

With me now is Anand Menon, professor of European

politics and foreign affairs at King's College London

who specialises in issues surrounding Brexit.

The remainders will course say we have not left yet. No doubt some

Remainer is got it wrong. Some people said as soon as we leave

George Osborne said we would need an emergency budget within weeks. But

there is a longer term prediction about what happens when we beat the

single market and Customs union and for that we have to wait until

believe. I know you have been around Europe talking to others about

Brexit, how will other countries view what is happening, do they look

at it with some concern? No, I do not think it is the case that other

European states want us to suffer but in terms of whether it looks as

if we are benefiting from leaving, I think they will be calm because we

had not left yet. They will wait and see when we leave the single market

or customs union. At what point do you think we will whether those

forecasts put forward of lower growth and high unemployment, when

will be get a sense of that? I think the real impact if there is one will

be felt once we can no longer trade within the single market or customs

union. Some economists are now predicting that we will see a

falloff in investment as companies perhaps decide to relocate or invest

less in this country because we are outside the single market. That is

very much the order of prediction we have seen wrong already. It is worth

picking up on an interesting thing from the budget, the OBR document.

It bases predictions on growth, levels of migration that are far

greater than the target the government has. If you think one of

the reasons to support Brexit was to get the number down, these

predictions are based on numbers that are significantly higher. Thank

you. I keep hearing in the United States, you might not think people

are aware of the UK growth forecast here, but I heard some people who

are pro Trump saying all those experts who said the UK would go

down the tubes economically after a leave vote, they were wrong. The

experts were wrong and they will be wrong about Donald Trump as well. It

strikes me how many people are raising that as an issue.

A lot of people in the UK will think back to what Michael Gove, one of

the chief architects of Brexit said at the time, we have had enough of

experts. What was interesting about this speech today, which was half

the size of the speech last year, there was no mention of Brexit. Once

or twice he spoke of leaving the EU but of course the broad canvas is

Brexit. He did not make many references as to what would happen

next. The reason for that of course is the experts got it wrong. If you

forecasts now probably more predictable than at any time in

living memory because people just do not know what is in store over the

course of the next four years. So I suppose once burned, twice shy. We

will keep watching. As the world watches what Brexit

will mean for the UK's economy, there are also questions

about what the Trump administration's economic

impact will be in the US. Since he's taken office,

the stock market has made steady gains -

but what's the long It's a topic I also discussed

with IMF chief Christine Lagarde. You have been reasonably

positive on the US economy He also talked about slashing US

taxes, a $1 trillion What we have done is revised

the US outlook for growth. From 1.6 in 2016, we forecast 2.3

and then 2.5 in 2017-2018. There is a lot of positive news that

has already been priced in, And clearly that would lead

to an upside in terms If that was not to happen, in other

words if there was no tax reform, no support of significant

infrastructure, range of projects, if there was no fiscal spending,

that would lead us to have But at the moment what we see

is positive anticipations Are you concerned about trade

policies from this administration because he has after all already

taken the US out of the TPP and made it clear he wants to look

at Nafta and revise that. What would worry me would be

if leaders were not focused on securing the benefits

of international trade. But at the same time making sure

that those who have been left to the side of international trade,

were not looked after. And if those who will be affected

by technology breakthroughs, by robotisation, by their jobs

being removed from the supply chains, were not looked

after and not prepared to adjust Because they have been people left

to the sides but there will be more, irrespective of international

trade or not. Simply because technology will bring

about those changes. So my clear priority

and focus in two weeks' time Focus on helping people

prepare for the changes. And look after those

who have been affected. You are describing a world

in which we had Brexit and we had Donald Trump elected,

and the story that you And Chinese new plans

coming into effect soon. We cannot focus the entire

world around UK and US. But that story of trade and how some

people have been left behind by the march of globalisation,

is what has led us to populist In those two countries

and to the prospect of more You can understand why

voters in those countries They feel we did not get

a good deal out of this. I have to look at the entire

population and that is While you have I would say probably

about 20 countries that are very concerned about these issues

and where the media talks I have about 160 other countries

that are very keen to see international trade,

that want globalisation and that have benefited vastly from standard

of living, If you just look at the advanced

economies, the average Is it to say that everyone

has benefited, no. What has not been done

by policymakers and everyone is at fault, us included,

is we have not focused on those who have lost out of globalisation

in those advanced economies. Did you find relatively upbeat about

one Donald Trump are setting out? She was positive about growth in the

United States and the UK as well for that clearly she must be careful not

to be political specifically on the Trump administration and domestic

American politics. But the point she made was interesting, but there are

countries where we are seeing Populist governments coming in and

populist movement is doing well and in those countries there is a desire

for protectionism. But if you look as she set at 160 countries around

the world who benefited from global trade and who want to keep it, that

is a different picture. For those countries economic growth,

employment, economic prosperity and their future with the depend on

access to balance basically the developed world and developing

world. It will be very interesting. One breaking line of news, there is

a European summit tomorrow in Brussels talking of course about

Brexit and Donald Tusk the Council president has been speaking ahead of

that and saying they intend to press on with their draft negotiations on

Brexit within 48 hours. Of Theresa May triggering Brexit. He said they

will then meet later in April to finalise those terms but it seems to

me of course they have spoken about four months, and he said no

negotiation until she triggers it but there are clear about what they

want to do and we'll get on with that within 48 hours. It looks like

this is going to start moving fast with article 50 is triggered.

A military hospital in the Afghan capital, Kabul, has been attacked -

officials say more than 30 people were killed.

Three gunmen entered the compound early on Wednesday while a fourth

attacker set off a bomb at the main gate.

Afghan security forces brought the siege to an end

So-called Islamic State says it carried out the attack.

In Guatemala, firefighters say at least 19 people - including

children - have died in a fire that ripped through a

25 other people were injured in the blaze.

It's still unclear how the fire started.

But on Tuesday police had to intervene after a riot broke out at

the home. The nephew of the North Korean ruler

has spoken out for the first time since his father's assassination

in Malaysia last month, saying that he is safe

in an undisclosed country. My father was killed to days ago and

I'm with my mother and sister. Kim Han Sol's father is the half

brother of Kim Jong Un. The 21 year old's thought to be

in danger if his uncle wishes to target any possible rivals

to the North Korean leadership. Still in the region,

China is warning of a looming crisis The Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi

asked reporters in Beijing if the two countries really

are ready for a "head-on collision". Mr Wang is proposing Pyongyang

suspend testing of missile and nuclear technology and,

in return, the US and South Korea should stop their annual

joint military drills - which consistently

infuriate the North. There've been violent clashes

between police and protesting Riot police fired tear

gas at demonstrators, Some of the farmers used wooden

sticks and shepherd's crooks to push the authorities back and to smash

police vans. The CIA's job is to steal

other people's secrets. But the agency seems to find it very

difficult to keep its own. Yesterday Wikileaks published over

8000 documents which laid bare how the agency is hacking smartphones

and digital televisions. And none too surprisingly -

a number of the big tech firms whose products have allegedly been

compromised by the CIA Apple said it is already addressing

some of the vulnerabilities. The knock on effect of course

is that hacking will presumably We are joined by Aki Peritz,

a former CIA analyst. How damaging is this latest leak? I

think it is damaging, it is something that you have the

technology and techniques out there but there is also someone providing

this information to WikiLeaks. The last of the documents came out of

every last year and currently it is an investigation going on at the CIA

and also run by the FBI to see if there is a mole in the system

providing this information to these outside organisations. Supposing I

am one of the American adversaries and this leak comes out, how much

intelligence does it give me as I try to prepare my own cyber warfare

techniques, does it help me keep ahead of the game? It might, some of

what WikiLeaks provided was the fact that if this is all true, the CIA

can actually get into certain phones. We had known that people can

get into phones and access them now for a while so this lays out some of

the techniques they used to do that. But if you have any smartphone the

fact that you're collecting data on that device means that you are

vulnerable. Remember the CIA on looks at intelligence organisations,

so American citizens should not be concerned about this. But foreign

adversaries should be concerned. Sean Spicer at the White House is

concerned and he has been speaking about WikiLeaks and talking about

how damaging it was for the US. The idea that we have these ongoing

disclosures of classified information should be something that

everyone is outraged that in this country. This is the kind of

disclosure that undermines our country, our security and

well-being. Sean Spicer speaking there and we should abolish

remembered the president himself during the course of the election

campaign talked about how much she liked WikiLeaks. But they were

tremendous. This is in the eye of the beholder, the American public,

if they like what they are leaking, and the like WikiLeaks and if not,

they do not. The CIA is trying to protect the American people and

American government and our state from foreign adversaries. A lot of

them use cell technologies. And we would want intelligence agencies to

go and try to grab that information for the United States. It is about

securing this country which is more important than Cisco or Apple.

Within these documents they talk about a group within the CIA who

still the malware, the fingerprints of you will but have been gleaned

from foreign hackers. So the theory is the CIA could make a hack look

like it had come from another direction. You can see how this will

start playing politically because Fox News last night said well maybe

it was not the Russians that hacked the Democratic servers, maybe it was

the CIA using Russian fingerprints. That is interesting. It is something

that could be used for disinformation put out by WikiLeaks

and then immediately picked out by Russian organisations and very

conservative outlets here in the US. Saying the DNC PAC was not done by

the Russians but by the CIA. So it is quite interesting that this thing

is put out and is immediately picked up by this ecosystem and pushed out

for a very specific narrative. I find that fascinating spot but very

seriously, it then begs the question about political meaning of WikiLeaks

because we know there was a lot of pressure on Donald Trump at the

moment. There are questions about Russian funding behind WikiLeaks. If

they're able to start selling the story then you have to question

their political leanings. Of course. And remember WikiLeaks is the

organisation along with a number of others that the intelligence

community here in the US identified as a cutout or go-between between

Russian intelligence service putting out negative and derogatory

information on Hillary Clinton and her campaign and some of her

colleagues. And so I think it is pretty obvious that WikiLeaks is in

the assisting business of Moscow and their fellow helpers. The fact that

we have, that WikiLeaks has this information that predates much of

the election is rather striking because it suggests there's someone

in the CIA ecosystem who might be providing this to this organisation.

That is something the FBI really needs to follow what one. Thank you

very much. And the Russian thing refuses to go away. The house

intelligence committee saying it will look at the investigation and

have public hearings on the 20th. The Republican chair of that

committee, David Nunes, was asked about wiretap allegations that

Donald Trump made against Barack Obama at the weekend. This was his

response. The president is a neophyte

to politics, he's been doing this a little over a year and I think

a lot of the things that he says, you guys sometimes take literally,

sometimes he doesn't have 27 lawyers and staff looking at what he does,

which is I think at times refreshing and at times can also lead us

to have to be sitting at a press conference like this answering

questions that you guys are asking. It is remarkable. It is like we're

in two different fact universes. You should not take literally what the

president says, seriously? Maybe a staff should just take his Twitter

machine away from him. Let's move on. Tens of thousands of Indians

work in the US on short-term visas but the president has warned he is

considering restricting them. Justin Rowlatt has been finding out what

the software industry makes of that proposal in India.

She graduated from a top US university.

She's worked as a software engineer for Microsoft and Facebook.

But Ridi Mattel isn't sure she would be welcome

I cannot believe engineers like me are being pushed

President Trump has made no bones about his intentions.

And the fear is that will affect India's dream

There has been talk of cutting back the 150,000 temporary work visas

the US issues to professionals like computer

India is overwhelmingly the biggest beneficiary of those visas,

it gets 70% of the total, a key reason why the Indian

IT sector is now worth $150 billion a year.

That is almost 10% of India's entire GDP.

Her Bangalore -based online finance business is thriving.

She thinks fewer US visas will be good for her and good for India.

Now I could not be happier, we are developing.

We are going to grow exponentially over the next decade.

It is just a confluence of macro factors and trends

which is going to be wonderful, for sure.

The Indian government's small business and tech champion

acknowledges there will be costs in India if visas are restricted

but also believes India's IT sector is strong enough

India is growing at 7.6% per annum, it is an oasis

of growth in the midst of a barren economic landscape.

But when these people come here, India will probably start

So no issue, we welcome people, but the loser will be

India increasingly offers all the amenities of

That makes it more likely that a visa clamp-down will backfire.

Indian IT professionals who return are more likely to stay,

and to develop businesses that will compete with US companies.

You're watching 100 Days from BBC News.

Stay with us for more including my thoughts on International Women's

Day. Springlike weather will be found

more widely across the UK tomorrow. Today was Northern Ireland and North

East England that enjoyed the sunshine. But the UK was topped and

tailed by cloud and still will be overnight. Cloud across southern

England, south Wales producing some patchy rain and drizzle and some

hill fog. Quite windy with showers across Scotland, some snow to the

top of the hills. Not much frost around. Moving on Thursday morning,

a brighter day in South Wales and southern England but still for the

far south-west, parts of Cornwall going to get some further outbreaks

of rain. A bit of a misty start across South Wales, the south of

England but elsewhere some decent sunny weather to begin the day. And

across Scotland still some showers around but these begin to fade and

into the afternoon we just have a scattering of showers left. Still

some outbreaks of rain at times into Cornwall, some more clout into

southern coastal counties of England and South Wales but elsewhere some

lovely sunshine coming through. Temperature is widely in double

figures and feeling pleasant. Up to 16 degrees in some places. But the

eastern of the UK going through Thursday night, they could be some

frost around. Mild night in the West with cloud and outbreaks of rain.

What a contrast as Friday begins. It will be the cloud and rain winning

out on Friday pushing north. On Friday things look very different

with plenty of cloud around but feeling similar because it will

still be mild. It is more unsettled at the weekend, we bring these

weather fronts across the UK but there are gaps in between. And if

you are in these gaps it will be brighter for a time. The weekend

starts mild but we change wind direction, and what that does is to

bring temperatures down a couple of degrees by Sunday, not much it has

to be said. So occasional sunshine, occasional rain and just feeling a

little bit cooler by Sunday. As the world prepares for Brexit,

the British Government upgrades Coming up: the President declares

his tremendous respect for women, and the First Lady hosts a lunch

at the White House for How equal, though,

are women in the US? One of the biggest applause lines

at Donald Trump's election rallies was his promise to repeal

and replace Obamacare on day one. We are now Day 49 and President

Trump has run into the complicated reality of delivering

on that promise. The White House is mounting a full

court press to try to get the new Republican plan passed,

and there is the real prospect A short time ago the,

Republican Speaker, Paul Ryan, stepped up to defend the bill

at a news conference. We are working hand in glove

with President Trump, Vice-President This is all hands on deck,

because you know what, we all ran on repealing

and replacing Obamacare. We know that if we just repealed it,

the system collapses. This is why we have

to pass it with something Look, I would just say this:

Look at what this does. With me now is the Republican

strategist Ron Christie, Nick Bryant is with me. That is not

how conservatives feel about it? Many within his own caucus, the

Republican party, especially on the Outside on Capitol Hill, don't think

it is conservative, exciting or monumental. They wanted to go

further and they are calling this Obamacare Light and Obamacare 2.0.

In the Senate, they have a different problem. It is moderate Republicans

who oppose this. They think it goes too far on the health coverage that

is given to poor people, and they are worried that it will remove some

of the 20 million people that got health care under Obamacare. So you

have Republicans thinking it is too conservative, others thinking it is

too liberal - will the White House get this through and does it want to

get it through? There are two lines of thought at the moment. This is a

negotiating position, they put it out and it is subject to

negotiation, and they will add some Conservative sweeteners to get the

freedom caucus, as it's called, the 30% of lawmakers who are opposed to

this. But there are others who think this is what President Trump wants

to see past, so live with it. You have all were already -- you have

already seen President Trump using his Twitter feed. There was a

Kentucky senator who has been a critic on twitter. If President

Trump will use Twitter to attack people who oppose this law, he will

be spending a lot of time on it. I am wondering about this. You can

tell me if I'm wrong, but is it that there has been a fundamental shift?

Obama shifted the paradigms. Is it now generally accepted in the United

fundamental right, and entitlement, fundamental right, and entitlement,

and is that the problem is? It is hard to take and entitlement away

when you have given it in the first when you have given it in the first

place, and that is a huge problem. There are 20 million uninsured

people who got coverage under Obamacare. Who were they? A lot of

working-class people who voted for Trump. They were annoyed with the

spiralling premiums, these increases in their monthly health bills, but

the modelling that has been done on these new proposals suggests that

they'll be hit with even bigger rises under this new proposal, so it

is politically hazardous for the Trump

administration. Nick, thank you very much. It is

worth saying that this is the big deal for President Trump in his

first year in office. He really wants to get something done on this

this year. And his first step into legislation - the real star.

The White House is calling round all the local radio stations.

Republicans are calling in to get Republicans are calling in to get

people on board, get constituents, can you don't like this, on board as

well. The First Lady, Melania Trump,

has just hosted a lunch to mark International Women's Day

at the White House. Her husband also greeted

the day with a tweet declaring his tremendous respect

for women, and another honouring Which might raise an eyebrow or two

among those of us who watched that The President aside,

it is pretty clear American women haven't made the progress

they might have anticipated. Hillary Clinton recently declared

that the future is female, but as she knows better

than anyone, the present political landscape

is a For the time being, it's

a man's world when it comes to being boss,

and not just in the US. Over 130 countries have yet

to elect or appoint a woman The Congressional picture is only

slightly more encouraging. Women have helped national office

here for over a century since Jeannette Rankin was elected

by the state of Montana in 1916. Today, 21 women are in

the Senate, and 83 are It's not great, but it's better

than the paltry 11 women who were And that's the story

of women's progress. We have made advances,

just not as big as we'd have liked Take the world of business -

29 companies in the S 500 now have female

chief executives. That's a third more than eight years

ago, and it is better than Europe, but it's still only

a pitiful 5.8% of the total. American businesses

are lagging many other countries, places you might not

expect, like Russia, Indonesia, Latvia and the Philippines,

where women hold over 40%

of senior level positions. The statistics might well depress

someone like Anna Bissell. She was America's first

CEO, and she blazed a trail taking charge

of her family's carpet sweeper

company way back in 1889. I suspect Anna would have thought

the glass ceiling would not just have been cracked

but completely smashed by now. We're not there yet,

and in her memory, we will all keep working

to make it happen soon. Well, gender equality is firmly

on the mind of Christine Lagarde. Here's more of our interview

with the International Wouldn't it be nice

if we got to the stage International Women's Day any more

than we might need an It would be terrific, but I don't

think that day is about to You think we are still a way

off's I think we are still a way off, and I think

that we will probably be for ever a way off,

because there is something that is sort of endemic, and part of our

cultural heritage about being either discriminated against, excluded,

downgraded, undermined, and I think having an international

day to actually challenge that is something

that we must keep, because these discriminations, these

practices of undermining, Are these practices endemic

in women and how they see themselves, or are they endemic

in men and how men see women? I think they tend

to be endemic in both We tend to internalise

a lot, too much, those characteristics, and I believe that

men are afraid of women having too A lot of men might say, why should I

share my jobs with women? If there are more jobs and growth in general,

if there is better development, more education, everybody will benefit,

not just women. And for our findings are clear about is that bringing

women to the table will actually generate more growth, will create

more jobs, will improve the development of countries that need

it, and at the micro level, it will actually bring more to the bottom

line in companies, so it is just an economic no-brainer, as many have

said before, but we need to repeat it and repeat it and rehash it all

the time so that people understand that it benefits all, not just

women. Your report for International Women's Day talks about women's

talent being underappreciated and underused - is it frustrating that

we are still in this position? I think it is worse than that. It is

underappreciated, underused and at the same time, exploited. If you

look at low-income countries, who goes out and walks miles for water?

Girls. Who misses school was my girls. However frustrated we are, we

have to just keep at it. The leader of the biggest economy in the world

has famously been abusive towards women. How much does that tone from

the top of the US economy change the equation for women? I think what is

important now is not to look at what happened in the past but to hold all

leaders accountable. I have heard people say, I am not a -- I am a

feminist and not demonstrate that they respect women. I am keen to see

what is being done, what is being implemented, what measures will be

delivered, and if President Trump puts in place at the federal level

parental leave that will allow American women to continue their job

without worrying about maternity, I will say bravo. He has talked about

doing exactly that in his address to Congress. As I said, talking is one

thing. Walking the talk is going to be decisive.

Really interesting to hear from Christine Lagarde.

China has given President Trump the chance to expand his brand,

after approving dozens of applications to register

What do you know about that? Many requests were made during the

election campaign. Donald Trump already owns about 70

trademarks in China. The question this raises, and which

hasn't been fully addressed and unravelled in the United States, is

the tricky question of conflict-of-interest? That this

president have a conflict of interest?

which was in the headlines. I should which was in the headlines. I should

bring some clarification. I knew you would bring that up! A grabbed my

attention that the president wanted to brand escorts in China. It is

about protecting your trademark, which is why it is there. If you see

the headlines tomorrow, you will know why. Take a look at this. This

is a man who was stopped by the police. It is pictures from the

dashboard camera of a patrol camera in Arkansas. He was stopped for a

faulty tail light, and this is what followed. He juggled to prove that

he wasn't drunk. I don't actually know what happened, whether he was

allowed to get back in the car and go one. They used to make you walk

the white line, didn't they? That is another way to go about it!

Certainly more entertaining for the officers. And if you can get all the

balls in the air, you would get let off. Juggling for you. That is 100

Days. Share your thoughts with us using the hashtag.

For now - from Katty Kay in Washington, and me

Christian Fraser in London - goodbye.