02/03/2016 BBC Business Live


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This is Business Live from BBC News with Victoria Fritz and Sally


The morning after Super Tuesday points to a Trump versus Clinton


race to the White House, but what does this mean


Live from London, that's our top story on Wednesday, 2nd March.


Sweeping victories for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton


after Super Tuesday with presidential elections


in November but what are their plans and promises for the world's biggest


It's the latest buzz from the Geneva Motor Show,


They're not on the road yet, but the boss of Renault-Nissan


Carlos Ghosn tells us consumers are ready for for this


On the markets, the global equity is gathering momentum.


We'll be getting the inside track on the art of finding


you the perfect job - recruitment is BIG business -


James Reed the boss of the global giant Reed Group will be with us


So if you have a question for him you know how to get in touch just


The British Pilots Association is calling on governments


to research the effects of drones hitting planes.


What risk do they pose? Send us your comments.


The race to the White House hots up as Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton


win sweeping victories at Super Tuesday.


It s now more likely than ever that the two will go head-to-head


This week, we're looking at the economic pledges


Today, we look at what the billionaire businessman,


Donald Trump, has said about how he would manage


Trump says he'll bring back American jobs by slapping tariffs


He's threatened a 35% tax on cars made in Mexico and tariffs


But economists argue its Americans who would ultimately pay higher


prices, as US industry benefits from cheaper imports.


He's threatened to send home millions of immigrants.


But experts ask would Americans do these largely menial, low-paid jobs?


Cutting taxes is another one of Trump's cards.


In the past, he's said those earning less than $25,000


And corporate income tax would be cut to 15% to stop US corporations


moving to low-cost tax havens around the world.


But do any of these promises amount to policy?


Linda Yueh is a Professor at the London Business School joins


Lovely to see you, Linda. Raez Still a long road ahead. Lots of twists


and turns and they are not nominees yet. But obviously we are weighing


up what either of them could mean for the world's in one of the most


economies in the world. Give us your take on what Trump means for the US


economy? He certainly means a larger national debt and the reason is if


you look at his pledges which I should stress, Sally, tend to change


on the campaign trail. He is not entirely consistent if I can put it


that way, but from what he has said and one of his main centre pieces is


cutting taxes. He would add, it is estimated, something like $12


trillion to the US economy which is a $16 trillion economy. So the level


of debt would go up because he is not matching the tax cuts with any


spending, here is my favourite line from this, if you're going to cut


taxes by that amount and you don't want to add to that, you need the


economy to grow. The US economy would need to grow by 10% to pay for


his tax cuts without pushing up the debt. One of the ideas he has


floated though, but not recently, as you say, they keep changing, is a


one-off tax on the wealthiest in the US, a 14% one-off tax on their


entire wealth and that's his argument as a means of getting some


money in the pot? Yes. I think what's interesting is if you look at


his appeal, he wants to appeal to predominantly working Americans and


so therefore, he differentiates himself from making these big tax


cuts which go to the wealthy by saying he would tax the wealthy in


some respects, yes, he floated that. He has also floated things like


changing and cutting taxes on the high earners. The overall position


that he would put America in would be one that's similar to what a lot


of Republicans said in the past, they want a lower tax burden,


America in general has a reasonably high tax burden, but arguably too


many loopholes as candidates would like to say, but I think in general


the problem is his pledges don't really add up and I don't think he


is unusual by the way in that. Most people, when they are on the


campaign trail, probably make too many promises they can't really


keep. Yes, that's how he is trying to appeal to the working person,


even though he is a billionaire! Pledges are otherwise, if you cast


your mind back over the rhetoric that we heard interest Donald Trump,


a lot of it is protectionist and a lot of people would say that's not


good for the US economy, but the US economy already is quite


protectionist, just overnight they slapped a load of extra tariff on


countries for trade around the world. How different would a Trump


presidency and an economy under Trump really be from what we are


seeing already? I think his red ricket on trade is quite


protectionist. He targets China and the currency. But I do wonder on


that, whether or not when he comes into, if he were to come into


office, whether or not, as he has already said, most of his pledges


are flexible, in general Republicans like him tend to be more pro-free


trade than Democrats and that's usually, Obama, you can argue is


more like a Clinton, Bill Clinton, not Hillary Clinton, much more open


on trade. So I think on that front, he is his rhetoric is not going to


help and I think one of the things that he is probably raising a lot of


concerns for countries around the world is his stance on trade and


actually foreign policy in general. Of course immigration policy is


another one, but I suppose my favourite Trump pledge at the moment


is on immigration, he wants to build a wall between the US and Mexico and


he wants Mexico to pay for it! I don't think we can take what he says


on the campaign trail at this point to be gospel, but it is becoming one


of the big debating points for Trump. There is an off the record


chat he had with the New York Times where he revealed to say, he said


well, when you're in office, you have to negotiate with Congress and


secretly, I think, people are beginning to think he is more


flexible than his more staunch stances would suggest. It will be a


very entertaining few months ahead. Thank you very much, Linda, for


coming in and giving us your prospective on what Donald Trump


stands for at the moment, but it is changing all the time and we will


focus next on Hillary Clinton's policies. That will be in another


Business Live in the near future. Hopefully tomorrow.


The oil giant Shell is being sued in London for the second time


in five years over spills in the Niger Delta.


Two communities are claiming compensation and want Shell to clean


Shell said it is at an "early stage" in reviewing the claims


and that the case should be heard in Nigeria.


The US ratings agency Moody's has cut its outlook for China


The debt rating, however, was left unchanged.


But the agency warned that reforms were needed to avoid a downgrade.


Moody's said the change in outlook was based on expectations that


Beijing's fiscal strength would continue to decline.


New data shows China's economy is continuing to lose steam.


Qualcomm has been fined for hiring relatives. The First Minister


provided gifts and travel and entertainment to influence


officials. The company did not admit or deny the allegations and this


would be between 2002 and 120. 2012. Lots more on the Business Live page.


This is a story that caught our attention. Brexit would shrink UK


financial services industry so says BlackRock.


Could the worst of the global commodity rout be over?


Well, we had a hopeful sign from Australia.


Its economy outpaced all forecasts to grow at the fastest pace


For more, our Asia business correspondent Karishma Vaswani


Always lovely to see you. So there, is quite a glimmer of hope, isn't


it? Some sunny news from Australia. Indeed, Sally. Australians must be


feeling pretty smug about the way their economy is going these days.


Now, despite that collapse in global commodity prices that you were


talking about, Australia has managed to escape recession yet again,


confirming that it is the cliche of all cliches, the lucky country after


all. Let's talk you through the numbers. The economy grew by 3% in


the three months ending December 2015, that's compared to the same


period a year ago and remember, this comes against the backdrop as one


analyst put it to me, the greatest mining pull back in Australia's


lifetime. Now, compared to the third quarter, growth was up about 0.6%,


that beat market expectations, so what are Australians getting right


Sally? Well, I was there on a recent reporting trip and looking at the


economy there and how badly it has been hurt by the apparent end of the


mining boom, but one that really struck me, many in the industry told


me that even though low global prices are hurting the mining


sector, Australia still has one of the most low-cost, and hi-tech


mining sectors in the world. So mining sectors in the world. So


that's certainly helping it. Thank you so much.


Data out from the US shows that perhaps the picture on manufacturing


We've seen solid buying across the region.


The Nikkei closing at highs of the day.


The yen is weaker. This is how things have opened up at


the moment. Just a fraction higher, about a third higher.


Let's hear from Michelle Fleury about what's ahead on Wall Street


We will get the jobs report and we will get a taste of the labour


market, February's ADP report on private payrolls should show an


increase of 190,000 jobs, but that's down slightly from January's figure.


The latest collection of economic anecdotes from the Federal Reserve's


12 regional banks will be released in the afternoon, the beige book may


show the world's largest continues to flash mixed signals. Look out for


reports from aber copl bee and Fich. These two may have seen their


revenues dragged down by unsees bleu warm weather this winter.


He's an Investment Director at Fidelity Worldwide Investment.


Everywhere is going up. We have had a strong session on Wall Street. It


is happening at the moment in Europe. And yet, China being


highlighted as a risk from Moody's which doesn't seem to be affecting


people's sentiment today? Well, the bull markets always climb a wall of


worry. Wall Street has set the tone last night and I think what is


happening there, you know, over the first couple of months of this year,


there was a growing fear of recession led by the United States.


I think the data that we're getting coming through now suggests that is


less likely so the manufacturing figures, they were not great, but


they were better than expected. Inflation is beginning to nudge up.


So I think the feeling is that interest rates probably will start


to push higher this year. There was a fear that maybe they wouldn't rise


at all. That's good for the banks. We have seen the oil price rise.


That's good for the energy companies. So generally speaking, I


think the mood is just lightening a bit. There is a sort of sell-off


fatigue after two months of ropey markets. Do you think the worst is


over in terms of that big sell off that we have seen at the start of


the year? Well, that is certainly the implication of the data that


we've got and the mood in the markets. These sell office can only


go on for so long and two months is a long time. Markets fell a lotment


we had a bear market in many markets around the worldmed we had one in


the UK. Yes, I do. Just quickly, of course, what's the


next thing coming up that could cause the mood change? On Friday we


have got the jobs report in the United States. People are now


talking again, aren't they, about when rates could go up in the US? It


seemed to be off the agenda not long ago. Even last week, to be honest.


There has been a rapid change in sentiment, but you're right, we've


got the jobs figures on Friday, that's important. On 16th March, we


have got the next Federal Reserve meeting. That's going to be


important. It is unlikely that we will see that second rate rise in


the US in March, but I think the chance of a rate rise in June now


looks much more likely. OK, thank you, Tom. We will see Tom in five


minutes, he will be back to talk through some other stories in the


papers. Still to come:


Mid-week office blues? Got mine here! Yes, we got them


here. Stay tuned for our next guest,


the boss of recruitment giant How does his firm


handle 50 million job You're with Business


Live from BBC News. Let's take a look at a few


of the business stories from around Britain's financial services


industry could shrink if the UK That's according to the world's


biggest fund manager, The firm warned that Britain's


economy would be hit hard by a vote to leave the EU, with equities,


the pound and the London property BlackRock also warned that UK


companies could be blocked from the single market,


if the EU decides to penalise Britain's farming industry


is calling for a contingency plan for agriculture IF we leave


the European Union in Farms in the UK currently receive


around ?3 billion in EU Steph is in the Brecon Beacons


in Wales to find out more. It is looking very dark there, are


you inside somewhere, I assume? Good morning, good morning everybody, let


me just show you where I am. It is lambing season at the moment, and


these guys around me, the mothers and their little lambs, that guy


there is just a day old. Just getting used to life here on the


farm. This is one of 300,000 farms across the UK, and of course one of


the big concerns for them is if we leave the European Union, if the UK


leaves, what will it mean for things like their subsidies? Farms like


these get subsidies, and it helps to keep things steady through the ups


and downs of farming life. Some of them are worried that they will lose


this subsidy if we leave the EU, other farmers are telling me today


that they think, well, actually could it make things less


conjugated, will it be easier to do trade and the money will go directly


to farmers rather than via the EU? These are things I have been talking


to farmers about throughout the morning. They are expecting 30


births here. You can see lots more of the little lambs around me. Last


week, in one day, they had 200 births, would you believe? That is


all from me here on the farm. Is it a bit too brutal to mention


mint sauce, roast potatoes? Smells good! Lots of stories.


Poundland says its Chief Executive Jim McCarthy is to retire. He will


be succeeded by Kevin O'Byrne, the former boss of B You are with


Business Live. You're watching Business Live,


our top story, it was the biggest night of voting so far


on the campaign trail. To find the nominees for the


Republican and Democratic party in the United States. And so far the


result tell us that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are the front


runners. Of course it will take them a little bit closer to winning the


nomination for their parties for the battles to the White House. Lots


more on that on the website. It's Wednesday - also


known as hump day - meaning it's a particularly


important day if you're not really enjoying your job -


the bulk of the working week is over Recruitment is big business,


and Reed Group has been making the most of it for generations -


it is the largest family-owned jobs James became Chief


Executive in 1997. His father, Sir Alec Reed,


set up the business in 1960. The company has offices in more than


a dozen countries around the world with over 3500 staff, and eg it


receives a whopping 50 million job applications, helping 140,000 people


find work. And James is with us in the studio to give us the inside


track on the business. Nice to see you. Thanks for coming in.


There are so much to discuss, and I imagine our viewers all over the


world have many questions, especially in the current


environment, trying to find work. Your key audience as it were our


young, I understand, 18 to 30s. And in Europe that is a critical age


facing real challenges. It certainly is, in fact we are there to help


anyone who was on a hump Wednesday, we want people to love Mondays, that


is our message, because we want people to enjoy their work. It is a


particularly important for young people, so we do a lot of work with


young people especially. In Europe in particular, youth unemployment is


chronic. Certainly in countries like Spain, Italy, for example, and is


something that governance have been trying to fix and discuss for many


years, and yet they don't seem to have found the magic bullet, as it


were. And there are lots of different views as to what should be


done. In the end, what we have seen in the labour market is that people


are much more mobile. So it is possible to move from Spain or move


within Spain to get a job somewhere else and were seeing more and more


example, it is a magnet for people example, it is a magnet for people


from all over Europe to come the work. Therefore how much of a


consent of the people you work with, these 18 to 30-year-olds, who would


like to work elsewhere, perhaps in London, perhaps they are watching


from Spain for example, how concerned are they by the threat of


exit, Britain leaving the EU, and the general fragmentation across


Europe we are seeing? We have just done a big survey of job-seekers,


and the majority that responded were very much in favour of remaining in


Europe, but that was particularly true of Europe. 68%, in fact. Then I


think that is because if we were to leave Europe, it closes a lots of


opportunities for young people who could currently work in Germany,


Spain, Greece, or wherever in the 27 countries, and that works both ways.


People might want to come here to work but similarly people from here


looking for opportunities elsewhere. Your company started back in 1960,


and I guess you grew up with it because your dad was running it and


now you are running it. Recruitment has changed phenomenally in that


time, and I must admit when I heard about you coming in, I kind of


thoughtful people looking for work now, there are so many different


avenues, and a recruitment agency is just one of many ways -- many ways


to find work. How have you had to change to remain relevant? The


biggest and most obvious has been in technology, which began with the


internet but moving onto mobile technology as well. People can look


for jobs from their phone, on the tube, on an act. It is easy to find


vacancies but it is a lot more -- on an app. It is very competitive, and


there has also done quite a lot of pressure on wages. So wages haven't


been growing in the way that they used to. Because there are more jobs


available, one is beginning to see that but it is early days. Just


quickly on that, what are you seeing with wages? How have people


responded to the fact wages have remained pretty much flat for a long


time? Since 2009 wages have been pretty flat but they are beginning


to go up now in the more buoyant parts of the labour market, we are


seeing them to increase to .5% on the jobs advertised. Job-seekers are


looking for more than that and I'm hoping they will get it! Wages are


beginning to move upwards but it is very early days. Thank you for


coming in, it has been fascinating having you on the programme. We will


share some of your thoughts on that as well, I know you have been


sending us messages, that to come. On today's programme,


when you hear class-action lawsuit, do you think of the movie


We'll talk to one legal beagle who helps ordinary people take


Now to the revs and roar of the Geneva Motor Show,


where the auto industry is showing off its latest models.


Self-driving - or driver-assisted - cars are making waves.


But it is not always for the right reasons. There have been a few bumps


along the way. Well, we've heard a handful


of stories about safety concerns, most recently Google's car


that crashed into a bus. But the boss of auto


giant Renault-Nissan, Carlos Ghosn, tells us consumers


are ready for for this In terms of safety, it has a lot of


benefit. 95% of accidents on the road are due to human error. So if


you limit interaction between man and machine, you will get a lot of


results, in terms of safety. On top of this, it is about pleasure, it is


about productivity when you are in a car. There are a lot of benefits,


where all our tests are showing the consumers are ready for this


technology and it will bring a lot. You sound very confident but how can


you be sure that customers actually want driverless cars, because after


all you have to sell the cars they drive is want to buy? Exactly, first


we make tests, we have a lot of surveys. Second, as you know all our


research is showing that consumers are extremely interested not only on


the safety side, but on the fact that they will gain back the time


that they decide to gain back while they are driving the car, because


this is not about replacing the driver, it is empowering the driver


and putting them in a condition where the driver can decide whenever


he wants to drive them when he doesn't want to drive. That was the


chief executive of Renault Nissan. Tom Stevenson is back. Lots to chat


about. Not least this story that is actually quite worrying about drones


hitting aeroplanes will stop there have been a number of near misses,


and it is quite concerning what could happen if one went in and


engine, for example. If you think about the damage a bird can cause


when it goes in there and engine, you can imagine the damage that what


is effectively an unmanned aircraft could do. With lithium batteries


inside. Absolutely, which could potentially cause an explosion. So I


can see where the concern comes from, and also I can see the growth


in this market is potentially enormous because the commercial


imperative is to use these drones is very significant, whether you are


Amazon delivering goods within the hour to your customers, or a friend


of mine is a photographer, and he brought a drone, it cost less than


?1000, so they are very cheap. They are, and it's quite scary. Thank you


so much. There will be more business news


throughout the day on the BBC Live webpage, and on World


Business Report. Some of us woke up to a lovely sunny


dawn, others it has been happening, some snow, thunder and lightning and


some hail. Through


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