21/06/2016 BBC Business Live


21/06/2016

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This is Business Live from BBC News with Aaron Heslehurst

:00:00.:00:07.

With just two days until the UK votes

:00:08.:00:12.

on its EU membership, all eyes are on the pound.

:00:13.:00:15.

The billionaire investor George Soros says it will sink

:00:16.:00:18.

like a stone if the UK leaves, but those supporting a Brexit

:00:19.:00:22.

Live from London, that's our top story

:00:23.:00:29.

the EU would lead to the pound dropping by at least

:00:30.:01:00.

They say he was wrong on joining the Euro

:01:01.:01:04.

Will be looking at all sides of the argument.

:01:05.:01:09.

Walmart seeks to make inroads in China.

:01:10.:01:11.

The global retail giant is going to give away its struggling

:01:12.:01:14.

website in the country in exchange for a 5% stake in China's

:01:15.:01:17.

And the markets after that over 3% climb for most major markets, today

:01:18.:01:26.

they have dipped slightly. So what's the feeling on the trading floors

:01:27.:01:30.

today in Europe? We will talk you through that.

:01:31.:01:31.

And do you fancy using your holiday this year to work on a farm, teach

:01:32.:01:35.

It might not be up your street but it's now a growing area

:01:36.:01:42.

We speak to the woman who's turned experiences

:01:43.:01:44.

So, on that note, when you travel is that your idea

:01:45.:01:49.

volunteering at a school in India, taking a cooking class in Nepal

:01:50.:01:55.

or even helping out on a farm in the Philippines?

:01:56.:01:57.

Let us know what you think - just use the hashtag #bbcbizlive

:01:58.:02:12.

Do send us your suggestions. I'm sure you've got some good ideas for

:02:13.:02:20.

holiday for Aaron. Let's talk about what is going on as far as the UK

:02:21.:02:24.

referendum is concerned today. The latest add his voice to the debate

:02:25.:02:26.

is George Soros, the investor who made

:02:27.:02:34.

$1 billion by betting against the pound on Black Wednesday

:02:35.:02:39.

in 1992, who has warned of a Black Friday if Britain votes

:02:40.:02:42.

to leave the European Union. Soros warns sterling could drop

:02:43.:02:44.

in value by more than 20% and says voters are "grossly underestimating"

:02:45.:02:47.

the risks of a Brexit. Vote Leave says Mr Soros

:02:48.:02:50.

is a long-standing advocate of giving the EU further control

:02:51.:02:52.

of Britain's finances. Yesterday the pound jumped the most

:02:53.:02:54.

against the dollar in seven years, the likelihood of the UK

:02:55.:02:57.

leaving the European Union. The currency rose by 2.43%

:02:58.:03:00.

after several polls suggested that the Leave campaign had

:03:01.:03:13.

lost its lead in the race, with both The former boss of Tesco Sir Terry

:03:14.:03:16.

Leahy and former head of Marks and Spencer Mark Bolland

:03:17.:03:19.

have also waded into the debate with the support of the shop

:03:20.:03:22.

workers' union Usdaw. They claim households

:03:23.:03:25.

would be at least ?584 worse off a year, because of an expected

:03:26.:03:30.

fall in the value of sterling dismissed the warnings,

:03:31.:03:34.

claiming EU membership has put up Supporters of a Brexit also argue

:03:35.:03:41.

that a weaker pound would benefit the UK because it would make

:03:42.:03:47.

Britain's exports cheaper. lets get more on this. Tim Martin is

:03:48.:04:01.

chairman of the JD Wetherspoon pub chain. He is a vocal proponent of

:04:02.:04:08.

leaving the EU. He joins us now from Exeter to talk all things EU

:04:09.:04:12.

referendum. Great to have you on the programme. I'm trying to understand

:04:13.:04:19.

why you are so for leaving because, for example, if the pundits have it

:04:20.:04:23.

right, if the average UK household would be done something like 550

:04:24.:04:28.

quid, that's 550 quid less to spend in your pubs. That's a voodoo

:04:29.:04:35.

economic said and George Soros calls a Black Wednesday but, of course, as

:04:36.:04:41.

most viewers will know, the name was changed to white Wednesday in 1992.

:04:42.:04:46.

We got kicked out of the exchange rate mechanism, the pound was

:04:47.:04:51.

overvalued and we started the magnificent recovery which lasted

:04:52.:04:53.

for years and defied those who suggested we should stay in the

:04:54.:05:00.

exchange rate mechanism. If we leave the EU, which is undemocratic and

:05:01.:05:03.

unsuccessful, with great problems in Greece, Portugal and elsewhere, the

:05:04.:05:08.

first thing that will happen is that in our pubs, food prices will go

:05:09.:05:12.

down because a lot of our food is bought from outside the EU. All our

:05:13.:05:19.

wine is bought from outside the EU and most of it has a tariff, so

:05:20.:05:25.

we'll lose the tariffs. Sorry to interrupt but if the UK leaves, as

:05:26.:05:30.

no doubt many will say and we know it, sterling will drop. Some say

:05:31.:05:34.

50%, some say 20 percentage top that's going to make importing goods

:05:35.:05:39.

more expensive. I just remember the huge problems in the early 1990s

:05:40.:05:45.

when the pound was going up. It was supposed to be our biggest problem

:05:46.:05:48.

and it was creating enormous problems the manufacturing industry.

:05:49.:05:53.

There are certain effects if the pound goes up or down, it's a

:05:54.:05:58.

floating currency. It goes up and down all the time, so does the stock

:05:59.:06:02.

market. And I don't think that you can say that that's the reason.

:06:03.:06:07.

Right out of the blue, the pound is going to go down? That's bad. Where

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has this come from? It's ridiculous. From your perspective... Sorry, this

:06:14.:06:17.

is Sally Bond at joining in. Many of your punters, I'm sure, have been

:06:18.:06:20.

talking to you about this referendum, and gauging the mood

:06:21.:06:25.

where you work, what are they saying to you? I think that they are

:06:26.:06:31.

starting to get their minds around the different issues. The key issue

:06:32.:06:35.

with the EU is that it's not democratic. It's increasingly

:06:36.:06:39.

undemocratic and if you look around the world, which I think most people

:06:40.:06:44.

now appreciate, Australia, New Zealand, North America, South Korea,

:06:45.:06:51.

it's always the democracies which do better, and since the EU has become

:06:52.:06:56.

more centralised and it has started to have a lot of economic problems,

:06:57.:07:00.

we are not talking about a very successful area. The further you are

:07:01.:07:05.

away from the centre of the EU, the more successful your economy is. The

:07:06.:07:11.

great problem is, we have to have this dogfight to stay out of the

:07:12.:07:18.

euro, not to have... To have opt outs on various things, to avoid a

:07:19.:07:22.

tampon tax. So it's not a very successful area. We need democracy,

:07:23.:07:28.

where laws are made in this country, like New Zealand, Australia, North

:07:29.:07:30.

America. It's not anything to profound. We appreciate your time.

:07:31.:07:35.

Thank you, mate, for joining us. Talk to you again sometime.

:07:36.:07:42.

Lots more on that story in a few minutes. Let's just squeeze in some

:07:43.:07:43.

other business news. Former Volkswagen boss

:07:44.:07:46.

Martin Winterkorn is under investigation in Germany

:07:47.:07:48.

for alleged market manipulation. German prosecutors have

:07:49.:07:50.

accused Mr Winterkorn and another former board member

:07:51.:07:52.

of withholding information from investors about

:07:53.:07:54.

VW's emissions scandal. Mr Winterkorn resigned last

:07:55.:07:56.

September, following revelations the firm cheated US diesel

:07:57.:07:58.

car emissions tests. But VW said the prosecutors have

:07:59.:08:02.

offered "no new facts The aviation industry could be one

:08:03.:08:04.

of the biggest beneficiaries of changes to India's strict

:08:05.:08:10.

foreign investment rules. The government has announced it

:08:11.:08:12.

will allow 100% foreign ownership of airlines and of some

:08:13.:08:15.

defence businesses too. And for foreign firms

:08:16.:08:19.

trying to get into retail, there's respite from a rule that

:08:20.:08:22.

required 30% of what they sold to be Let's take a look round the world

:08:23.:08:26.

at what's business stories We learnt today that the US

:08:27.:08:38.

retail giant Walmart is rethinking its digital strategy,

:08:39.:08:43.

to tap into the Chinese market. Mariko Oi has been

:08:44.:08:46.

following the story. Walmart that biggest retailer in the

:08:47.:09:06.

world looking at the biggest growth area in the world.

:09:07.:09:10.

Indeed. The company's name that you were looking at was Yihaodian, which

:09:11.:09:14.

is the online company that Walmart has in China. It targets wealthy

:09:15.:09:19.

customers, especially women, selling groceries, but it has really been

:09:20.:09:24.

struggling, so it has announced that it is going to sell that unit to the

:09:25.:09:29.

country's second-biggest be, is company, called Jaidee .com. In

:09:30.:09:34.

return, Walmart will have a five per stake in that company and will be

:09:35.:09:38.

listed as a preferred seller. So the company hopes that this deal would

:09:39.:09:42.

give them greater exposure in other parts of China and investors seem to

:09:43.:09:47.

like the plan as shares of Walmart are rising on Wall Street after the

:09:48.:09:50.

news. Thanks a lot. Interesting story to

:09:51.:09:53.

keep alive, what Walmart is up to in China.

:09:54.:09:55.

Let's show you how markets fared in Asia. The main market in Japan by

:09:56.:10:03.

almost 1%. Hong Kong followed after a good night on Wall Street. This

:10:04.:10:07.

was on the back of reports showing that the Remain camp was seemingly

:10:08.:10:11.

ahead but now the polls are too close to call yet again. We all know

:10:12.:10:16.

how reliable polls are, don't we? But that's how things have been

:10:17.:10:20.

going in Asia. The yen strengthening a little. Some nerds out there. And

:10:21.:10:26.

this is Europe, really flat and fairly mixed. Massive jumps

:10:27.:10:30.

yesterday. If you look at the closing numbers for Europe, 3.5%

:10:31.:10:33.

higher for France, three percentile for London. Quite a big marked

:10:34.:10:40.

bounce on the market on Monday so no surprise they are flat. We will talk

:10:41.:10:42.

some more about the market sentiment in a few minutes.

:10:43.:10:46.

Samira Hussain has the details about what's ahead on Wall Street today.

:10:47.:10:49.

On Tuesday, chair of the US Federal reserve Janet Yellen will be

:10:50.:10:52.

This is Miss Yellen's semiannual appearance on Capitol Hill.

:10:53.:10:55.

She will be delivering remarks on monetary policy and then

:10:56.:10:58.

answer questions from congressional leaders.

:10:59.:10:59.

Separately, Miss Yellen and the US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew

:11:00.:11:04.

will attend the opening meeting of the Financial Stability

:11:05.:11:07.

The Fsoc, as it is often referred to, is responsible for monitoring

:11:08.:11:13.

And in other news, FedEx will be reporting earnings.

:11:14.:11:19.

Investors will want to hear all about its recent acquisition

:11:20.:11:22.

of the Dutch company TNT and, of course, preparations for this

:11:23.:11:27.

Hard to believe we're talking about Christmas when summer has only

:11:28.:11:32.

Good on you! We already thinking about Christmas?

:11:33.:11:48.

Are you thinking about Christmas? You are kidding me! I will pop my

:11:49.:11:50.

tree up! Joining us is independent

:11:51.:11:51.

economist Bronwyn Curtis. Actually, I haven't taken it down!

:11:52.:12:01.

Great to see you as always. Let's start with the big boss of the US

:12:02.:12:11.

central bank, Janet Yellen, she talks of the committee and we saw a

:12:12.:12:15.

change of mind is at the US Federal reserve. The way I think about it,

:12:16.:12:20.

they were talking about four rate hikes a year, approximately. Now I

:12:21.:12:28.

think about it as one rate a hike year for the next four years. Talk

:12:29.:12:33.

about change! So they are worried about the economy. Are they wrote to

:12:34.:12:38.

be worried? I think it's a big change. They've got closer to the

:12:39.:12:42.

market so should they be worried? I think we should all be worried

:12:43.:12:46.

because we either low growth, low inflation ran for a very long time.

:12:47.:12:49.

Bond yields are going to stay low, interest rates stay low, so it's not

:12:50.:12:54.

a pretty picture. The US was nice that was starting to perform. But

:12:55.:12:59.

wait until the end of next week. Nonfarm payrolls. They are coming at

:13:00.:13:05.

the end of next week. It was because they were bad last time that

:13:06.:13:09.

everybody said, it's not good, maybe they'll be better this time and

:13:10.:13:13.

we'll be going up a bit. Sally Watson talk about Brexit but first,

:13:14.:13:17.

will she continued in front of this community today? All bob absolutely,

:13:18.:13:22.

the same message. Give us your take on the mood right now because

:13:23.:13:25.

looking at you, markets are fairly flat. Treading water after a big

:13:26.:13:30.

bounce on Monday. I'm thinking about what George Soros has been saying

:13:31.:13:38.

today. Are you trading on the day -- where you trading on the day we left

:13:39.:13:42.

the RM? Roll I was. Markets hate uncertainty. The ERM was not really

:13:43.:13:49.

about the UK but about Europe and it was a big thing for the UK but not

:13:50.:13:54.

for Europe. This is huge. I've been doing this a long time and I'm with

:13:55.:14:00.

George Soros. The volatility that we will see... Markets hate

:14:01.:14:04.

uncertainty, so 15 or 20% in the sterling going down, I think that's

:14:05.:14:10.

likely. But let's not forget, he is a big Speculator. This kind of

:14:11.:14:15.

market is good for him. They love volatility and that's what we've

:14:16.:14:19.

got, at least until Friday. You are going to come back and tickets to

:14:20.:14:22.

the papers so we'll speak you very shortly. Still to come:

:14:23.:14:25.

Living like a local - we speak to one company that's

:14:26.:14:27.

turned the apatite for authentic home-grown experiences

:14:28.:14:29.

What would be your authentic holiday experience? Out of you when we come

:14:30.:14:42.

back! -- I'll tell you when we come back.

:14:43.:14:43.

You're with Business Live from BBC News.

:14:44.:14:48.

Do we need to say that? It says on the autocue it is two days to go

:14:49.:14:55.

until Britain votes on the EU referendum! Markets are looking

:14:56.:14:56.

jittery. Laith Khalaf, a senior analyst

:14:57.:14:57.

at Hargreaves Lansdown, has been keeping an eye on how

:14:58.:15:00.

investors are behaving Welcome to Business Live. I would

:15:01.:15:06.

imagine from your point of view it is all hands on deck now from now

:15:07.:15:11.

right through until the end of play on Friday. Markets have been really

:15:12.:15:17.

moody. We saw the FTSE rising yesterday on the back of a few polls

:15:18.:15:20.

and you are absolutely right, we are going to see more of that in the

:15:21.:15:23.

coming days because markets are being bombarded with a huge amount

:15:24.:15:27.

of information. They are trying to die just at all and that is going to

:15:28.:15:30.

run through up to the referendum and possibly after it as well.

:15:31.:15:39.

We talk about the pound dropping and markets crashing bla-bla-bla. If we

:15:40.:15:48.

stay in, do we see the opposite? We are not going to see a rise in the

:15:49.:15:54.

quid are we by 15% or 20%? You can tell which direction the markets

:15:55.:15:59.

will go in either outcome either up or down, remain or Brexit. What is

:16:00.:16:02.

really difficult is quantitifying how much. We have seen, you know,

:16:03.:16:06.

reports of the sterling crashing 15%. That could happen, but I don't

:16:07.:16:09.

think anyone really knows whether that's going to be the case. If you

:16:10.:16:16.

are a betting man and we stay in how much does the sterling rise roughly?

:16:17.:16:20.

I have no predictions because that's, you know, it is a real false

:16:21.:16:24.

economy to make predictions like that because no one knows what is

:16:25.:16:29.

going to happen on the day. The context of all we have got a fragile

:16:30.:16:33.

global economy and key to this is the fact that policy makers don't

:16:34.:16:35.

really have any room left because interest rates are so low. So if we

:16:36.:16:39.

get knocked off course in terms of economic growth, there is nothing

:16:40.:16:42.

really that they can do to stimulate the economy anymore.

:16:43.:16:45.

All right, we have got to leave it there. Thank you very much for your

:16:46.:16:52.

prospective. There is plenty, plenty more on our

:16:53.:16:56.

website, but there are other stories out there. Aaron found one. Talking

:16:57.:17:02.

about airline fees, printing a boarding pass, putting an extra bag

:17:03.:17:06.

on. The Civil Aviation Authority are looking at the rules on this to make

:17:07.:17:11.

sure the charges aren't tucked away, hidden. More transparent. More

:17:12.:17:18.

transparent, Sal. So you know what you're paying out.

:17:19.:17:21.

You're watching Business Live. Our top story:

:17:22.:17:25.

The billionaire investor has been wading in on the row over whether

:17:26.:17:30.

the UK should or shouldn't leave the European Union. His view is the

:17:31.:17:35.

pound will sink dramatically on Friday if the outcome is leave.

:17:36.:17:42.

The producers forgot to put that in and you just spoke it off the top of

:17:43.:17:44.

your head. Let's get the inside track now

:17:45.:17:46.

on a business that's trying to turn how we think of taking a holiday

:17:47.:17:49.

on its head. The travel and tourism industry

:17:50.:17:51.

generated $7.2 trillion last year while supporting 284 million

:17:52.:17:56.

across the globe. The sector is dominated by big

:17:57.:18:01.

players such as TUI Travel, Carnival Corp and Marriott

:18:02.:18:04.

International which make billions One company that's trying to shift

:18:05.:18:06.

the industry away from big players and towards the sharing economy

:18:07.:18:10.

is I Like Local. The business which is based

:18:11.:18:12.

on the sharing economy allows people to book accommodation and activities

:18:13.:18:17.

around the world with more than 450 experiences available

:18:18.:18:20.

in 15 countries. What they say separates them

:18:21.:18:22.

from their competitors is that 100% of the money asked by the locals

:18:23.:18:27.

for their activities is directly paid to them, ensuring

:18:28.:18:30.

that the local economy benefits. With me now is Sanne Meijboomm,

:18:31.:18:36.

the Founder of I Like Local. Great to have you with us in the

:18:37.:18:50.

studio. This started because you are a traveller, I believe, a little

:18:51.:18:52.

birdie told me and when you travelled you like to do the local

:18:53.:18:56.

thing and was that hard to do when you didn't have something like what

:18:57.:19:02.

you created? Well, like I travelled like over 42 countries and what I

:19:03.:19:07.

noticed and it was the reason why I start this business and I got this

:19:08.:19:11.

idea was that my best experiences were the encounters with local

:19:12.:19:20.

people. So at that time I was around 25, I still had loads of time to

:19:21.:19:25.

travel and so for me at that point it was not really difficult to find

:19:26.:19:32.

the experiences so I had loads of time. I started I Like Local mainly

:19:33.:19:40.

targeting people like women between 25, 35 who already have like

:19:41.:19:47.

experience with travelling but they didn't have the sufficient time to

:19:48.:19:52.

really start exploring. Just explain then how this website works. There

:19:53.:19:56.

are so many travel websites out there. True. There is huge

:19:57.:20:01.

competition. You have got your niche area. You are providing a local

:20:02.:20:04.

experience to people. We have just said that the people who provide

:20:05.:20:08.

that experience get all the money. So just explain how your website

:20:09.:20:11.

works and how you generate profits? Yeah. So the idea is that I really

:20:12.:20:17.

wanted to create like unique authentic experience for travellers

:20:18.:20:21.

because that's what something I noticed myself, but also like the

:20:22.:20:26.

research on more than 50 travellers. I Like Local is like a sustainable

:20:27.:20:31.

travel platform where travellers can book authentic experiences... But

:20:32.:20:35.

how do you make money? That's my question!

:20:36.:20:39.

It is a business programme, come on, how do you make your money? It works

:20:40.:20:45.

similar to Airbnb where Airbnb takes from both sides from travellers and

:20:46.:20:49.

hosts. We have the intention to support local communities as well.

:20:50.:20:50.

So we don't We appreciate your time.

:20:51.:22:43.

As part of our series where we've been asking small business leaders

:22:44.:22:46.

about their choice when it comes to Europe, here is the latest view from

:22:47.:22:53.

a shoemaker in Portugal. I am the managing director. Ighalo Portuguese

:22:54.:22:55.

shoemaker with a brand of 175 years. Our products are old and crafted

:22:56.:23:01.

with the best materials. In the last years we

:23:02.:23:04.

sold abroad in Japan, the United States of America,

:23:05.:23:11.

Germany and other countries. The recession in Portugal is very

:23:12.:23:16.

deep and it is difficult The Portuguese people don't have

:23:17.:23:20.

enough money to buy our shoes. We are planning to introduce our

:23:21.:23:27.

shoes in the UK market. It is one of the biggest

:23:28.:23:30.

markets in Europe. If the UK left the European Union

:23:31.:23:33.

it is difficult for us and for the Portuguese industry

:23:34.:23:36.

because there are additional costs and the customer procedures

:23:37.:23:40.

will cause delays in the exports. There are plenty more views on our

:23:41.:24:00.

website. We've talked to so many bosses about this.

:24:01.:24:04.

Bronwyn is back. Let's get into the papers. This is in the Insider. A

:24:05.:24:13.

start-up bank has raised ?1.5 million, just under $2.5 million, to

:24:14.:24:20.

build a bank for the young ones. The snap chat generation. Younger than

:24:21.:24:25.

us! It is interesting because they talk about it as a bank but they are

:24:26.:24:29.

not going for a full banking licence because most of the banking services

:24:30.:24:33.

they think can be done are prepay card but the reason they got off the

:24:34.:24:37.

ground was because they could provide overseas students with

:24:38.:24:41.

opening a bank really quickly, quicker than normal banks, and I

:24:42.:24:45.

think that's the big thing. That's their selling point. Plus they are

:24:46.:24:52.

going to give discounts on going to services and copies and all of that.

:24:53.:24:58.

Things are students like to do. It is another example of a start-up

:24:59.:25:04.

bank, a bank that is just for smart devices... We have the chief

:25:05.:25:08.

executive of Mondo on Business Live. Are they disrupt us, do you think?

:25:09.:25:12.

Are the big bounce you work for over the years worried about this? -- big

:25:13.:25:18.

banks. I think very are because they need to be on the phones and it is

:25:19.:25:23.

much harder. In terms of providing things like mortgages and overdrafts

:25:24.:25:25.

and all of that sort of thing, the big banks are there and these are

:25:26.:25:34.

long way from Matt. Would you go for sharing holiday?

:25:35.:25:39.

We have known you for a long time. Working on a farm in the

:25:40.:25:43.

Philippines, I think not. I work hard enough because I go out sailing

:25:44.:25:48.

and I go out and I worked really hard. My husband wouldn't burn an

:25:49.:25:53.

electric winch because he thought it was better than paying out for the

:25:54.:25:59.

gym so that's what I do. Thank you, sailor Bronwyn Curtis. We

:26:00.:26:02.

will see you tomorrow.

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