21/04/2017 BBC Business Live


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This is Business Live from BBC News with Aaron


High security in France after the gun attack in Paris


that left one policeman dead and two more seriously wounded.


It's a tense time for a nation on the brink of an election.


Live from London, that's our top story.


Yes - it's a historic moment for France as voters go to the polls


on Sunday for its closest election in living memory and one that'll


have consequences far beyond its own borders,


posing major risks for the European project.


Also in the programme, we're going to find out why America thinks


cheap steel from Asia is a threat to national security.


And we will bring to the latest market action as investors wrap up


another trading week. And we'll be getting


the inside track on global economic challenges and the threat


of protectionism - words of warning from the IMF's


boss Christine Lagarde. All this and more with our economics


correspondent Andrew Walker. Online shoppers in the UK spend more


per household than consumers We start in France,


where the shooting in Paris has interrupted final campaigning


in what was already being called the most unpredictable Presidential


election in living memory. Centrist favourite Emmanuel Macron


and far-Right Marine Le Pen look likely to go through after Sunday's


vote to a run-off on May 7th. But they are closely


followed by conservative Francois Fillon and far-left


candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon Socialist Benoit Hamon, though,


is being given little chance Security is of course right back


at the top of the agenda. But there are other huge issues


for financial markets. Number one is the fate


of the single currency. Le Pen wants to abandon it


and bring back the Franc. Melenchon says it should be reformed


and the independence of the European Macron and Fillon are supporters


of the euro and want to see So does Melenchon unless, he says,


Europe agrees to his reforms. Macron wants a stronger EU


and Fillon wants more control The other major issue


for the business world - labour reform, and France's famous


35-hour working week. Melenchon wants to cut


the working week even At the other end of the spectrum,


Fillon wants to scrap the 35-hour limit altogether and make it easier


to hire and fire. Douglas Webber is a professor


of political science at Insead. I have to start by asking you, after


last night's shooting, what is the mood light in Paris this morning? I


think the mood is rather sombre and of course people are asking what


impact if any disc attack last night will have on the election result on


Sunday. The financial markets are nervous, they really don't know


which way this election is going to go and the different outcomes could


have a very different impact on the euro, couldn't they? That is quite


correct, you have described very neatly and very well the contrasting


positions of the major candidates, two on the radical left and the


radical right would certainly risk taking France out of the euro zone,


out of the EU. Emmanuel Macron is pro-European and wants to strengthen


European integration, Francois Fillon is somewhere between them and


Europe. What about the issue of labour reform that Aaron mentioned?


Two opposing views from the main candidates, Melenchon wants to cut


the working week, Fillon looking to scrap the 35 hour limit. Here in the


UK we are always hearing the French are more productive than we are. If


France is so productive, why is the working week even an election issue?


Well, France has a very high level of unemployment, around 10%, it is


twice the size of countries such as the UK, the US and Germany, and the


candidates are competing about which policies could best bring down the


high-level of mass unemployment, about 3.5 million, 2.5 million


French people have been out of work for more than a year, about 20% of


young people, and the contrast between the candidates is strong,


the two radical candidates want to take France back to pre-euro days,


if you'd like, stimulate the economy by increasing public spending,


whereas Francois Fillon on the other side of the spectrum is offering a


kind of French shock therapy. You might describe him perhaps as a


French Margaret Thatcher. I am not sure if you would be able to change


all that much because if you were to be elected then he would still have


the corruption scandals around his neck and any attempt he would make


to radically reform French labour law would certainly provide major


protests and strikes. OK, Douglas Webber, thank you very much for your


time this morning from Paris. In other news, online shoppers


in the UK spend more per household than consumers in any other country,


a report says, amid a shift UK households spent the equivalent


of $5,900 using payment cards online in 2015 -


that's according to the UK This was higher than Norway's


$5,400, and the US at $4,500, Uber has extended its internal


investigation into sexual harassment The investigation, led by former US


Attorney General Eric Holder, was sparked by charges of sexual


harassment by a former female engineer as well as charges


of a wider cultural The ride-hailing app


says an internal report A fall in sales of Barbie dolls has


added to a slump at the world's It reported sales down more


than 15% in the first three months of the year -


the biggest drop in seven years That is a fascinating story because


in the first nine months of last year Barbie sales went up because


they brought out a whole new range. We will be doing more on this story


at the end of the programme so keep an eye on that.


President Donald Trump is chipping away at a campaign promise to tackle


His latest - a federal investigation into whether dependence on cheap


foreign steel is a threat to national security.


What more can you tell us? Cheap steel from China has been


blamed for many things, including winding down the market price as


well as the loss of jobs in the UK, for example, but President Trump has


actually invoked a law from more than 50 years ago which allows the


US government to restrict imports if it threatens national security, and


his argument is that steel is too crucial to the US economy and


military that the country cannot be too dependent on foreign countries.


As you said, this is one of many election promises that he wants to


put America first but it does send a mixed signal to Beijing because just


last week when the two Presidents, President Trump and President Shi,


met, President Trump avoided labelling China as a currency


manipulator, despite his repeated pledge that he would do so during


the election campaign, so those of us who brought tensions might not be


rising might have to think again. There we go, thank you. I wanted to


ask what she bought online, if she ask what she bought online, if she


shops online. Let's stay with the markets.


That is the Dow from yesterday but mostly on a positive note, shrugging


off the US trade report into cheap imported steel, but investors with


their eyes on geopolitical concerns, quite a few of them, in several


corners of the world. If we look at Europe, we expected it would open


more muted so no surprises there. The French election is a focus,


dominating a lot of the European markets. The euro remaining on edge,


that is quite volatile, so again all eyes on the first round of


presidential elections on Sunday in France. What does the US have in


store? Here is similar insane. -- here is Samira Hussain.


A few companies will be reporting earnings on Friday,


including General Electric, Honeywell and Schlumberger -


the world's number one oilfield services provider.


Now, although the price of oil is back up, the company


was hurt in the last quarter because of the cost associated


with reactivating idled rigs and equipment.


And the stabilising of oil prices will help Honeywell long-term,


but earnings for this quarter will suffer because of some


Investors in General Electric will be looking for the company


to cut costs and lift profits in order to hit targets


Finally, happening in Washington, will finance leaders will be


gathering for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund


Trade protectionist policies will likely be a major team.


Joining us is Jane Sydenham, Investment Director,


Thank you for coming in, let's look at the market in context of the


French presidential elections. The euro could be vulnerable, couldn't


it? It could, stock markets have been relatively stable, where we


bond markets, said the yield on bond markets, said the yield on


French government bonds have risen, so people are a bit nervous... So


the return on investment has gone up? Yes. But if we saw a second


round run-off between Melenchon and le Pen, the markets would be worried


because the implication is possibly an exit from the eurozone. At the


moment the polls are saying around 11% probability of that and you


think, well, that seems rather low, but go back to last year, the same


poll said 30% probability of Donald Trump winning at the same kind of


stage. -- is 13% probability. One thing we have learned is that we do


not listen to the polls any more! Let's talk about Tesla, voluntary


X and Model S, they say only 2% of global recall of the


X and Model S, they say only 2% of cars are struggling with this


problem but they are recalling them all voluntarily. Yes, they seem to


be aware of customer service, recalling 53,000 cards is quite a


task and you can argue it is the way to handle customer service when you


think about what happened with United airlines recently, they will


preserve their brand value by doing that. Even some of the big recall is


previously from car companies, like Toyota, some of them have mishandled


the recall is and they have been dented. Some of them have been quite


slow and have waited until problems have arisen. Tesla are trying to be


on the front foot, get out there and do this. We will have the bag at the


end of the programme, have a think about what you spend online!


Still to come, riding the economic cycle.


The IMF says global growth is finally moving up a gear -


we'll find out what issues will be on the agenda as the world's finance


You are with Business Live from BBC News.


Tomorrow marks the 10th global annual Record Store Day,


the event that celebrates the culture of independent


Hundreds of record stores around the UK will be holding parties


There are now over 380 independent record shops in the UK.


And vinyl sales are worth ?65.6 million, up over 5000%,


over the last ten years, representing 14% of total spend


Let's get more with Jon Tolley, who runs Banquet Records.


That is quite a turnaround! What do you think has prompted it? Might


immediately is it is just a reply to how much MP3s and streaming is our


big disposable, and if you really love something you want to own it


and keep it and have it for ever, make it an emotional experience.


Have we reached a balance between the digital music and physical


music, so downloading and buying albums? I don't think they are in


competition with each other, I download and stream but also want to


buy CDs and records, there is another space in the market for all


a bit but we are seeing that vinyl is on the up for the reasons I


mentioned. I am being told in my ear that you


have some records in your hand. What are they, and what is your


favourite? I have my favourites here, and all-time favourite of mine


that I only got on the CD when it first came out. It is rereleased


with special coloured vinyl. Here is The Cute, acoustic kits, acoustic


versions of the classics you have heard from The Cure. And Toto,


Africa, a continent shaped disc. I know you said it was not in


competition, but which is most affordable? This is not comparable.


That is my point. It is not just about price, it is not about the


cheapest option. You cannot compare a beautiful piece of art, like a


record, with a stream or MP3. A new vinyl album would be ?16 or ?18. We


will have to leave it there. Thank you very much for your time.


Hello! I didn't think I was in vision, there.


You're watching Business Live - our top story...


France prepares for the closest election in living memory,


posing major risks for the Euro and the EU itself.


A quick look at how markets are faring...


It is all about France and the presidential elections. You can see


the FTSE is up, as is the market in France.


We are waiting to see what will happen. Far left, far right, that is


my prediction. It is going to shake up the markets. Like Trump. There


you go. This week, the IMF Spring meetings


in Washington have us clues The IMF's boss Christine


Lagarde warned about Of course the French economy


is in the headlines as voters head to the polls at the weekend,


but there a political Let's get more with our economics


correspondent Andrew Walker. Thanks for joining us. What did the


IMF tell us? In terms of their general assessment of the shape of


the global economy, the tone is a lot more positive than I have heard


for several years, perhaps going back to the financial crisis. It


wasn't long ago that Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director,


coined the phrase the new mediocre. She was worried we were in for a


period of protracted sluggish performance, with little prospect of


improvement of living standards. The tone has changed quite differently.


The report earlier this week was called Gaining Momentum. There was a


question mark on the end of that title, I have to admit. But they do


think something has possibly changed in the last six months or so. The


chief economist was saying that maybe we are at a turning point.


There are risks, of course. But do we even care about the IMF!? They


are constantly changing. They say one thing, they said Brexit will be


the worst thing for the UK, the UK economy is going to come out. Then


they go, actually, it is doing better than we thought. On the UK


economy, they described two different scenarios. One was


recession, one was a significant slowdown. I think they would argue


that what we saw was slightly slower performance. In the forecast, we are


one of the fastest-growing economies in the G20? Yes, but slower than the


IMF was forecasting a year ago. What do we do with these forecasts? I


don't understand, why should we care about them? Do institutions... Well,


in a way, it is a fair question. The fact is, we do need to have some


idea of what we are expecting in the coming years. Is the IMF any worse


than anybody else? I would say absolutely not. And protectionism,


right? That is the big worry. We are not seen that, even though we


thought with Trump... The Trump administration has certainly been


making a lot of noise is. In terms of concrete action, the things that


people like the IMF were concerned about have not happened. What we had


last night, and you have already been talking about this review of


steel, the way in which it might bear on security issues, clearly


there is the possibility of the end of out of measures to restrict steel


imports. I think the IMF would be worried about that. So far, all they


are doing, all President Trump has called for, is a review of the


situation. There is certainly nothing in the WTO rules, which I


happen to have brought with me. Your holiday reading? Yes, which prevents


them from doing anything. These are the 500 pages of the basics of the


rule book. HE SNORES. That is the core of it. If you want to get


across it... The results of the Euro negotiations. Their coffee stains


you do read is on holiday? I would not be allowed to take it on holiday


with me. Donald Trump, overnight, about steel, at the minute it is


just about a review. Can he do anything about it? Under US


legislation committee can. World Trade Organisation rules,


restricting imports beyond what you have committed to in WTO


negotiations is generally inconsistent with the rules. There


are some exceptions on national security issues in this book. I


emphasise I am not a lawyer. But having read them, I would be quite


surprised if they are much use to President Trump, if he wanted to


impose restrictions. If he did, you might face action within the WTO and


the possibility of retaliation from trade partners. Having said that, if


he wanted to do it, there is no question he could. It is a question


of whether he would be able to pay that international trade price for


it. Thank you, enjoy your reading! Let's go to Shanghai,


China now where the annual It's a huge event -


China has been the world's top car market for almost a decade and well


over a thousand new But Volkswagen told Robin Brant that


combustion engines are not dead. We just saw the Cedric


unveiled to Shanghai. A man talked about air


purifiers inside the car. I live here with my three children,


there are plenty of cars in China, lots of them yours, the place


is smog hit. Isn't the problem that there are too


many cars in this country? The pollution is a big problem,


it also has climatic reasons. In China, we have some problematic


areas. We have one of the most modern car


fleets in the world. The government is really


driving down pollution. It's a really big city, the public


transportation can't cope. What we have to do is make our cars


more environmentally friendly, and electric cars are,


it looks like, the chosen option for the local authorities and it


will be also by the customers. Even though it is a huge market,


everyone here wants an SUV. I mean, in terms of sales,


they are going through the roof. People just love the riding


height of these vehicles, So we have a trend


towards SUVs worldwide, Now was the first month, I think,


that SUVs with the most We are going to look at the papers.


We start with the UK spending more money online shopping than any other


country in the world. Thank you for your tweets. Ryan says I buy most


stuff online, something like clothes, I would go into the store.


He uses Amazon Prime. Don't we all? These figures don't even include the


spend on Amazon. That is even more. Another says I buy my model trains


online. This is from Johan, I buy books, electronics and appliances.


What do you buy? Cat food! Do you have cats? Can I just checked? You


can buy a kind of cat food online you cannot get anywhere else. Why


you buying more than anywhere else? Maybe we do not like sitting in


queues, in car parks, crowds. It has definitely taken hold. Culturally,


it has taken hold. The convenience is a premium. Let's talk about


Mattel. Barbie sales were up, they have had a dismal performance? The


introduction of more varieties, tall, curvy, petite, it seemed to


work. But the battle with screen -based toys for children, they seem


to be struggling. They lost a contract to Hasbro to make Disney


princesses. If you think about the popularity of the dolls from Frozen,


Christmas time, that is what my nieces want. Sales related to films


are so important. Losing anything like that will have a huge impact.


Then there is stock overhang, and life gets more difficult. Thank you


for joining us. Aaron, please do not wind in your online spending. Are


you supporting the economy? I've been buying razor blades online. You


can get anything. Moisturiser. When did you last go to a shop? I'm not


saying anything. Things have been fairly quiet of late, that is what


we take into the weekend.


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