31/05/2017 BBC Business Live


31/05/2017

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track to remain the fastest-growing economy in the world. Why from

:00:00.:00:00.

London, it's our top story today on Wednesday the 31st of May.

:00:00.:00:20.

India removed nearly 80% of bank notes from circulation but it hasn't

:00:21.:00:27.

so far dented growth. We'll explain what happened and get the latest

:00:28.:00:30.

figures from the Indian government a little later today.

:00:31.:00:41.

One leading charity says half of all gamers have been harassed or

:00:42.:00:46.

received threats. Markets are looking like this. The pound has

:00:47.:00:50.

fallen sharply after fears that the Conservatives might not get the

:00:51.:00:53.

majority in the general election that many are thinking may happen.

:00:54.:00:59.

Hi Claire Castle may be better known as the filming location for down to

:01:00.:01:06.

Gnabry but it's also home to Europe's most successful horse

:01:07.:01:11.

racing ownership company. We'll get the inside track with Harry Herbert.

:01:12.:01:19.

And it's been revealed the Bank of England's staff have been studying

:01:20.:01:26.

Dr Seuss to brush up on communication skills because he has

:01:27.:01:30.

been described as a master of using simple language. With like to know

:01:31.:01:34.

what business language you think would benefit from the Dr Seuss

:01:35.:01:35.

treatment. We promise no jargon here on

:01:36.:02:04.

business Live. India has retained its crown as the fastest growing

:02:05.:02:07.

major economy in the world. Economists are predicting Indian

:02:08.:02:11.

economy grew by 7.1%, that's in the first three months of this year. But

:02:12.:02:16.

would be faster than China which is currently at 6.9%.

:02:17.:02:21.

The resilience of the Indian economy will be welcome news

:02:22.:02:24.

for Prime Minister Narendra Modi following the country's landmark

:02:25.:02:26.

That was when - at the end of last year -

:02:27.:02:29.

the government removed around 86% of all banknotes from circulation

:02:30.:02:32.

It led to widespread disruption and queues outside

:02:33.:02:36.

banks and cashpoints, but the shock announcement seems to

:02:37.:02:38.

And there could be more good news for the Indian economy next month

:02:39.:02:45.

when consumers will see major tax reforms.

:02:46.:02:48.

From July, all purchases will fall under a single "goods and services

:02:49.:02:51.

tax" and that's lower the average rate charged now.

:02:52.:02:59.

Sameer Hashmi has been following the story

:03:00.:03:01.

You've been witness to those huge queueing and chaos that interviewed

:03:02.:03:14.

after the banknotes were withdrawn. Many are expressing surprise about

:03:15.:03:19.

these growth predictions, given how badly small businesses in particular

:03:20.:03:26.

suffered. That's right. If these figures as estimated turnout to be

:03:27.:03:30.

true it will be a bit of a surprise. The impact was huge after 86% of the

:03:31.:03:38.

notes were banned especially small and medium-sized businesses were

:03:39.:03:41.

badly hit. There are two reasons for these good numbers. Now the

:03:42.:03:46.

government is using a new methodology to measure GDP. Just

:03:47.:03:52.

explain that in simple terms, industrial output, the way they were

:03:53.:03:58.

measured until now, didn't accurately capture the total picture

:03:59.:04:03.

across the country. The government says the new methodology is going to

:04:04.:04:08.

give a much clearer picture. Analysts say the new methodology is

:04:09.:04:13.

more favourable when it comes to big businesses and doesn't reflect the

:04:14.:04:17.

true picture when it comes to small businesses. That's why the number

:04:18.:04:21.

that will come out today is going to be on the high side which is

:04:22.:04:24.

expected to be 7.1. This figure is also for the period of January to

:04:25.:04:28.

March which is when the real impact March which is when the real impact

:04:29.:04:33.

took place. I was talking to one analyst who told me that if the

:04:34.:04:37.

government would have measured this data, how they have been doing all

:04:38.:04:43.

the while, the number wouldn't have been lower than that. Most are

:04:44.:04:49.

expecting 7.1. The government says it introduced this radical measure

:04:50.:04:52.

to try and cut down on corruption. Is there a sign this has happened

:04:53.:04:57.

and what impact has there been an inward investment as a result? It's

:04:58.:05:05.

still too early to say that the whole exercise has had any real

:05:06.:05:11.

impact on corruption. The reason the government went ahead with that move

:05:12.:05:14.

was because there is a lot of unaccounted wealth in this country,

:05:15.:05:17.

which means a lot of people don't pay taxes. The government was trying

:05:18.:05:22.

to bring all those people into the banking system so they can crack

:05:23.:05:26.

those people and whether they are paying taxes or not. So far, the

:05:27.:05:31.

data the central government has, it doesn't really give us exactly how

:05:32.:05:35.

much of the money that was sucked out of the system was unaccounted

:05:36.:05:39.

wealth. The tax authorities are still trying to chase people who

:05:40.:05:46.

have declared investments, on how much amount they didn't pay the

:05:47.:05:50.

taxes. It's still too early to say. As far as investments go, the

:05:51.:05:54.

government has taken a lot of steps but private investment is still low.

:05:55.:05:58.

Public spending has been driving the economy forward. Thank you for the

:05:59.:06:00.

update. Let's take a look at some of

:06:01.:06:03.

the other stories making the news. The pound has fallen more than 0.5%

:06:04.:06:06.

against the dollar after a new poll found that the ruling

:06:07.:06:09.

Conservative Party could fall short of an overall majority in next

:06:10.:06:11.

month's general election. Previous polls suggest

:06:12.:06:15.

Prime Minister Theresa May and her Conservative Party

:06:16.:06:16.

would massively Shares in online retail giant Amazon

:06:17.:06:18.

have risen above the $1,000 Back in 1997, the firm

:06:19.:06:26.

listed its shares for just $18 each. The rise in share price now values

:06:27.:06:33.

Amazon at $478 billion, Amazon is now the fourth-largest US

:06:34.:06:38.

company, behind Apple, Uber has fired the engineer accused

:06:39.:06:42.

of stealing secrets from Google's parent company Alphabet

:06:43.:06:49.

after he failed to assist Anthony Levandowski,

:06:50.:06:51.

previously worked on self-driving car technology at Waymo,

:06:52.:06:56.

owned by Alphabet. He is accused of downloading 14,000

:06:57.:06:59.

confidential files before leaving Uber denies it is using

:07:00.:07:05.

stolen technology. Manchester United is the most

:07:06.:07:13.

valuable football club in Europe, According to figures from KPMG it

:07:14.:07:15.

puts it ahead of Spanish giants The study looked at broadcasting

:07:16.:07:23.

rights, profitability, popularity, sporting potential

:07:24.:07:27.

and stadium ownership. In the study of 32 teams,

:07:28.:07:32.

English clubs dominate, If you're buttering your toes this

:07:33.:07:52.

morning or making your sandwiches, butter consumption is rising

:07:53.:07:58.

sharply. The cost rising 40% because wholesale prices are up more than

:07:59.:08:02.

80%. That's because of global demand for butter. Everybody loves the

:08:03.:08:07.

yellow stuff around the world. I like the quote, "I think the move

:08:08.:08:11.

back to butter is only going to grow".

:08:12.:08:14.

An investigation has been launched into the leak

:08:15.:08:16.

of details of a new bank levy, which led to sharp falls in the

:08:17.:08:19.

Tell us more about this leak and the bank levy. It all goes back three

:08:20.:08:33.

weeks ago and the budget in Australia, with a surprise

:08:34.:08:36.

banks. A surprise but not completely banks. A surprise but not completely

:08:37.:08:41.

unheralded. In the 24 hours before the budget, they started to

:08:42.:08:45.

circulate, it was reported the night before and the morning off in

:08:46.:08:47.

different media. It seems that led to a big sell-off in shares of the

:08:48.:08:54.

four big banks. Regulators say they want to check whether there was any

:08:55.:08:58.

short selling and they want to know the provenance of the leak, how this

:08:59.:09:00.

information reached the media before the Treasurer stood on his seat in

:09:01.:09:06.

Parliament. The chair of the committee saying, we will hunt this

:09:07.:09:10.

down, trying to make sure no one has profited from having this

:09:11.:09:13.

information before it was made public. The levy is still

:09:14.:09:16.

controversial, the banks still trying to fight it off. Thank you

:09:17.:09:21.

for staying across that for us in Sydney.

:09:22.:09:25.

Shares in Japan down slightly on Wednesday following that weaker

:09:26.:09:27.

lead from the US and falling oil prices dragging down

:09:28.:09:29.

We'll talk about that more in a moment.

:09:30.:09:42.

But the story has been that fall in the pound after a new poll showed

:09:43.:09:45.

Minister Theresa and the ruling Conservative Party in the UK risks

:09:46.:09:48.

falling short of an overall majority in next month's national election.

:09:49.:09:51.

The vote in Britain, political uncertainties in Italy

:09:52.:09:55.

and doubts over debt relief for Greece all weighing

:09:56.:09:58.

More on that in a moment, but first let's head Stateside

:09:59.:10:14.

and Samira has the details about what's ahead on Wall Street.

:10:15.:10:18.

Happening on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve, that is America's Central

:10:19.:10:25.

bank, will be issuing its Facebook. This is a collection of anecdotes on

:10:26.:10:29.

the help of the economy that is taken from the central bank sources

:10:30.:10:33.

across the country. It will likely show the US economy is continuing to

:10:34.:10:37.

gain strength, as the central bank prepares to raise interest rates

:10:38.:10:41.

again, possibly as soon as the next meeting which happens in just a

:10:42.:10:46.

couple of weeks. In earnings news, you would think that cyber security

:10:47.:10:52.

firm would be doing pretty well these days especially in the wake of

:10:53.:10:56.

so many ransomware attacks. But the firm Palo Alto Networks is expected

:10:57.:11:01.

to report a fall in profits when it reports on Wednesday. The company

:11:02.:11:05.

has faced rising competition in a hotly contested industry and is

:11:06.:11:08.

struggling with issues with its sales force.

:11:09.:11:10.

Maike Currie, investment director at Fidelity International.

:11:11.:11:15.

We are talking about the market movements in more detail. It seems

:11:16.:11:21.

as though its political concerns that are driving market sentiment,

:11:22.:11:25.

particularly when you see how sterling is performing. Absolutely.

:11:26.:11:29.

The election was expected to be a blip on the radar. The result was

:11:30.:11:34.

going to be a foregone conclusion, Theresa May was going to increase

:11:35.:11:38.

her majority in Parliament and that would enhance her Brexit-lite go

:11:39.:11:42.

shooting hand. Now that seems to have changed, and it's weighing on

:11:43.:11:49.

the currency. Now the pound is much weaker which is good news for the

:11:50.:11:54.

FTSE 100. It's a stock market of overseas owners and if the pound

:11:55.:11:58.

weakens that's good for those overseas exporters. This is only one

:11:59.:12:02.

poll saying there could potentially be a hung Parliament. How much

:12:03.:12:06.

confidence should investors have in polls given what has happened in

:12:07.:12:10.

previous elections? The polls do get it wrong and of course, betting on

:12:11.:12:15.

currencies is a zero sum game. While a weaker pound is good news for the

:12:16.:12:21.

FTSE 100, it's bad news for the FTSE 250, the stock market of

:12:22.:12:25.

medium-sized companies that optimistically focused. The best

:12:26.:12:29.

thing investors can do is ignore the short-term noise. Quickly, what

:12:30.:12:33.

happens if she doesn't get the big majority, what does it mean for

:12:34.:12:38.

Brexit? It means that we could have a hung Parliament and that means

:12:39.:12:43.

that the whole Brexit negotiating process, which is already clouded by

:12:44.:12:47.

uncertainty becomes more uncertain. That will weigh on markets. Markets

:12:48.:12:52.

height and macro hate uncertainty and Brexit is a huge unknown.

:12:53.:12:59.

We meet the man behind one of Europe's most successful

:13:00.:13:04.

horse racing companies and ask just how you buy

:13:05.:13:06.

You're with Business Live from BBC News.

:13:07.:13:19.

We're all feeling a bit more confident about the future,

:13:20.:13:22.

but still worried about the economy, according to the latest data.

:13:23.:13:28.

Research says rising inflation is proving a worry

:13:29.:13:30.

Joe Staton is head of market dynamics at GFK.

:13:31.:13:36.

You carried out this survey and people are still feeling quite

:13:37.:13:45.

optimistic. Do you think that is justified? It is interesting, we

:13:46.:13:50.

have done this survey since the 70s, on behalf of the EU so we have a

:13:51.:13:54.

long track record on what consumers are feeling and behaving will stop

:13:55.:14:01.

this is a consumer what we think and feel, not Mark Carney, Angela Merkel

:14:02.:14:05.

telling us what to think and feel and what is interesting there is

:14:06.:14:10.

still a lot of confidence. Your last presenter talked about uncertainty,

:14:11.:14:14.

in the face of uncertainty, there is a high degree of consumer confidence

:14:15.:14:20.

in the data we are reporting. Should we be surprised by uncertainty

:14:21.:14:23.

because there are so many things going on at the moment it is hard to

:14:24.:14:28.

know which way the economy is headed. How do you navigate that? I

:14:29.:14:35.

think what is going on, there is hard data, GDP data, and soft data,

:14:36.:14:40.

such as the consumer confidence survey we run. What is going on is

:14:41.:14:47.

the two are matching. We see a level of confidence. It is just bumping

:14:48.:14:53.

along the negative. After Brexit we saw it dropped dramatically, minus

:14:54.:14:59.

12. The lowest it has been is the low 30s, during the beginning of the

:15:00.:15:07.

last financial cycle. Consumer confidence is depressed but stable.

:15:08.:15:10.

Not jumping around as one might expect. OK. Thanks for the update on

:15:11.:15:17.

the consumer confidence survey. It seems we are generally not

:15:18.:15:22.

optimistic but not getting more pessimistic. Perhaps because we have

:15:23.:15:28.

some quite good numbers as far as exports are concerned. Excuse the

:15:29.:15:35.

picture. This is salmon. One of the things we sell around the world. The

:15:36.:15:41.

first three months of the year. Exports are up by 8.3%, ?4.9

:15:42.:15:49.

billion, that is the largest first-quarter figure on record so

:15:50.:15:52.

good news as far as exports from the UK are concerned. Details on the

:15:53.:15:54.

website. You're watching Business Live -

:15:55.:15:59.

our top story - official figures are expected to show that India has

:16:00.:16:02.

retained its crown as the fastest Economists are predicting that

:16:03.:16:05.

India's economy grew by 7.1% in the first three months

:16:06.:16:13.

of the year. We will get those figures later.

:16:14.:16:23.

This is what Europe is doing at this point in the morning. Sterling down

:16:24.:16:29.

against the dollar after a poll that suggests Theresa May might not get

:16:30.:16:35.

the majority expected. But it is one poll and they have been wrong in the

:16:36.:16:36.

past. Now, you might enjoy a flutter

:16:37.:16:37.

on the horses from time to time. Maybe at the Grand

:16:38.:16:40.

National, or the Derby. But what about if you owned

:16:41.:16:42.

a stake not in a race - Well, our next guest knows a thing

:16:43.:16:45.

or two about doing just that. He's the founder and boss

:16:46.:16:49.

of Highclere Thoroughbred Racing. It's one of Europe's most successful

:16:50.:16:52.

horse racing ownership companies. It was founded in 1992 -

:16:53.:16:56.

and since then has produced And when the horses do

:16:57.:16:59.

well, so do the owners. It's raked in nearly

:17:00.:17:03.

$8.5 million in prize money. Harry Herbert - the boss and founder

:17:04.:17:09.

of Highclere - joins me now. Hello. Who buys stake in a

:17:10.:17:21.

racehorse? Just how expensive is it?. As long as you can afford it,

:17:22.:17:30.

it is how long is a piece of string? Shares go from ?5,000 to up to

:17:31.:17:34.

?50,000 depending on which syndicate to come into but you can get

:17:35.:17:40.

involved for a few hundred pounds in a racing club. Owning a part of a

:17:41.:17:44.

racehorse is exciting and generates a buzz. I worked in Kentucky in the

:17:45.:17:56.

state said it was just starting there in the 80s. Ownership and

:17:57.:18:02.

racing of horses becoming more expensive, so their hat to be a

:18:03.:18:05.

better way to do it and ideally a way that would not take away the

:18:06.:18:09.

excitement of owning through fractional ownership done well and

:18:10.:18:12.

with really good management and using the best trainers. That you

:18:13.:18:19.

could come up with a concept that would make it fun. And he would not

:18:20.:18:25.

have to spend a fortune. Do you do it as an investor for the love all

:18:26.:18:32.

the money? The laugh. This is not an investment -- the love of it. If you

:18:33.:18:39.

are lucky enough to get a really good racehorse and we have been

:18:40.:18:42.

fortunate with a few champions and other good horses, they are worth an

:18:43.:18:49.

enormous sum of money. The horse who won the Derby was bought for 75,000

:18:50.:19:03.

unsold for millions. It is possible but you do not come into a syndicate

:19:04.:19:08.

and thing, I am just going to have Dobbin. What is the relationship

:19:09.:19:15.

like, do they become friends, do they fall at? We treat everybody as

:19:16.:19:21.

if they own the horse out right. The amazing thing is you can put the

:19:22.:19:25.

most abstract group of people together and the horse, it is the

:19:26.:19:29.

glue that binds everyone together. Naturally people say I won't know

:19:30.:19:35.

anyone, it might feel like I own the horse but it is the opposite. You

:19:36.:19:39.

see people who would never meet in everyday life having the best time

:19:40.:19:46.

imaginable. And they trot into the winner's enclosure together?

:19:47.:19:52.

You talk about the highs and lows but your job involves tears. Job

:19:53.:19:59.

satisfaction of seeing may be a FTSE 100 company chairman, chairwoman,

:20:00.:20:05.

big is this person, in floods of tears when a horse wins. It brings

:20:06.:20:08.

out an emotion that is completely alien to most people. It is

:20:09.:20:14.

primeval, I think. It is the best part of the job. Just to say, they

:20:15.:20:19.

are tears of happiness. Mostly tears of happiness, there are a few tears

:20:20.:20:25.

of, oh, my God, not again! Is why the Queen does it, and so on. What

:20:26.:20:34.

has it been like to see how Highclere Castle has been

:20:35.:20:36.

transformed from when you were trying to sell cream teas to

:20:37.:20:40.

renovate the building to now a global phenomenon? It is incredible.

:20:41.:20:48.

My brother and sister-in-law, they run it now and have done for

:20:49.:20:54.

sometime. I was involved and it was incredible. The transformation

:20:55.:20:58.

between hanging baskets, cream teas, to suddenly having amazing events at

:20:59.:21:03.

the castle and opening up the corporate angle. Movies. Tom Cruise

:21:04.:21:08.

there, Nicole Kidman. The first cricket match South Africa played

:21:09.:21:17.

was a Highclere. It has been phenomenal and Downton is a game

:21:18.:21:25.

changer for Highclere and any stately home that get something like

:21:26.:21:28.

it. Thanks for coming in. Best of luck.

:21:29.:21:31.

New research shows that abuse and bullying in video games

:21:32.:21:34.

The anti-bullying charity Ditch the Label said one in two gamers it

:21:35.:21:42.

spoke to had been bullied or received threats.

:21:43.:21:44.

Here's our technology correspondent Rory Cellan-Jones.

:21:45.:21:50.

For 16-year-old Bailey, video games have been a big part

:21:51.:21:53.

of his life and were once an escape when he was getting

:21:54.:21:57.

He enjoys pitting his skills against other players online,

:21:58.:22:01.

but what he doesn't like is the abuse he sometimes

:22:02.:22:03.

He first experienced bullying in games when he was ten and it's

:22:04.:22:07.

If I'm playing a game and I score a goal, I've literally been

:22:08.:22:13.

If you're being bullied at school, you come home and play your computer

:22:14.:22:21.

and you are just getting more abuse thrown at you.

:22:22.:22:23.

It's just going to put you off doing anything social.

:22:24.:22:26.

The charity Ditch The Label surveyed 2,500 young gamers.

:22:27.:22:28.

57% said they had been subjected to hate speech in an online game.

:22:29.:22:32.

47% had received threats and 40% had had unwanted sexual contact.

:22:33.:22:37.

What's changed over the last decade is that more and more games

:22:38.:22:40.

are played online and that means young gamers are encountering

:22:41.:22:44.

anonymous people from around the world and chatting with them.

:22:45.:22:49.

That can, of course, be very positive, but it also lays them open

:22:50.:22:52.

for the kind of dangers we've seen elsewhere in the online world.

:22:53.:22:55.

The anti-bullying charity worked with the online game

:22:56.:22:57.

Habbo Hotel to research young gamers' experiences.

:22:58.:23:00.

I think what's so shocking is the fact that it's

:23:01.:23:04.

We had gamers telling us this was just part

:23:05.:23:09.

Bailey says he has now learned not to let abuse get to him,

:23:10.:23:16.

but he wants the games companies to do more to watch over

:23:17.:23:18.

what happens online and to act to stop the bullies.

:23:19.:23:21.

We can now talk through some of the stories in the business pages. We

:23:22.:23:34.

have asked people to get in touch about the story Bank of England has

:23:35.:23:40.

used children's books for lessons in clarity. It is fair to say that

:23:41.:23:47.

financial sector has jargon words. I love this story because there is so

:23:48.:23:53.

much jargon and dry language used. And it was the former deputy

:23:54.:23:59.

governor who said they studied Dr Seuss to see how they could use

:24:00.:24:02.

simpler language to engage the public. At a time of political

:24:03.:24:10.

populism, this is the way forward, to engage people. Maybe without the

:24:11.:24:15.

tongue twisters. I am used to reading Dr Seuss to my children and

:24:16.:24:18.

at times it can be quite complicated.

:24:19.:24:22.

A very good point. They talk about the quarterly inflation report, it

:24:23.:24:25.

is about that thick and a challenge to get through it. It is about

:24:26.:24:31.

telling stories simply. That is so important. To get people to engage

:24:32.:24:38.

with finances, that is the only way. Mobile phones. There is a proposal

:24:39.:24:41.

in London on the Underground you might be able to use your mobile

:24:42.:24:46.

phone and some people around the world will find it astonishing that

:24:47.:24:50.

you cannot at the moment where in Hong Kong and parts of China it is

:24:51.:24:54.

the norm. I quite like not being able to use it on the Underground.

:24:55.:24:58.

It is downtime. The tube is where you see people reading a book, not

:24:59.:25:03.

senselessly browsing on their phone and playing games. There are flip

:25:04.:25:08.

sides. We should probably have technology on the tube because

:25:09.:25:12.

places like Paris and Tokyo have had it for years but the downtime is

:25:13.:25:17.

valuable. Nobody speaks to you on the tube and if you have nothing to

:25:18.:25:23.

read, you are a bit stuck. Gary says, I cannot stand business

:25:24.:25:31.

jargon. Ice for redundancy. And in voluntary career event. Let's get

:25:32.:25:37.

rid of that. Thanks for your company today. We will see you tomorrow.

:25:38.:25:47.

Good morning. It was a cold start today across northern parts

:25:48.:25:55.

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