21/08/2017 BBC Business Live


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This is Business Live from BBC News with Ben Thompson and Ben Bland.


Walking a trade tightrope - round one of talks between the US,


But can the three nations do what it takes to hold Nafta together?


Live from London, that's our top story today,


The trading relationship is worth more than a trillion dollars a year,


so can the members of Nafta bridge their differences


Also in the programme, the world's biggest oil producer


gets cosy with it's fastest growing consumer, as Russia's Rosneft spends


Asian markets were down, with Japan at its lowest level


in four months over concerns for President Trump's


Europe is looking like this in the first half hour of trade.


And from Bumble to babies - we'll meet the woman who's behind


a networking app for new mums called Peanut to help them


Elon Musk has today issued a stark warning


about the risks of killer robots in the future.


Today, we want to know if you think Terminator type robots could be more


fact than fiction in the not too distant future?


We will get to the Nafta trade deal in a minute,


because we have just had some breaking business news.


Reuters News agency is reporting that China's Great Wall Motor


company is looking into making an offer for all or part


A big deal between two potentially huge car-makers making one even


bigger one. The agency sites two sources that


say the Chinese company has asked to meet with its US-European rival


about purchasing part We have been hearing potential


reports of this for a while. The Chinese company could be interested


in buying the Jeep brand, one of Fiat Chrysler's most lucrative. We


will keep a close eye whether Fiat Chrysler ends up with a new owner.


We're talking trade today as the US, Canada and Mexico finish their first


round of talks to overhaul North America's free trade


It comes after President Trump threatened to scrap the pact -


saying it's been a disaster for US workers.


The countries have pledged to reach an agreement by early next year,


but some trade experts have warned it could take much longer.


The US says it wants new promises that more vehicles


At the moment just over 62% of each vehicle must come from one


of the three countries, but the US hasn't yet explained how


it wants this changed to boost its own automotive sector.


With me is Cailin Birch, global analyst at the Economist


Welcome to the programme. Which is the most challenging for them to


reach a consensus? There are a number of areas that could be


promising for a potential agreement. One of the automotive industry. We


are seeing some disagreement about what the mechanisms will look like


for future trade disputes across the board. That is something that could


potentially be disruptive for the US- Canada relationship given that


there is a border in timber to begin with. We have seen some


disagreements between timber and dairy exports. They have just


finished the first round of talks. It would've been nice to be sitting


here talking about whatever breakthrough they have made,


whatever deal been done. But we are still talking about the hurdles and


challenges. Would it have been expecting too much to see much


progress after round one? I do. The parties came in with different


negotiating tactic macro. -- tax. The US started on a very difficult


negotiating tactic where they wanted to reverse the agreement and not


just changes around the margin. President Trump said it didn't work


for American workers. How much does -- has that raised the stakes in


coming to a deal and a deal that works specifically for the United


States? Like you said, he has approached most of the major


legislative questions with the exact same tactic, where he makes a bunch


of sweeping statements that would imply major changes. For example,


with health care there was a very sweeping, let's toss it out and hope


we can come up with a new programming two years because we


will have a gun to our head, essentially. Eventually lawmakers


were able to scale back. We will see a more reasoned response when we get


into the negotiations in round three. It is not going to benefit


any parties in the agreement if Nafta is to be dissolved or if it is


to be rushed as well. Another major thing to mention is that health care


probably failed because the timing was so short to come up with such a


dramatic change. Nafta is much older than health care. The conditions are


very different. But to rush negotiations of such an important


trade agreement, where there is a soft deadline of the end of 2017, is


pretty unrealistic. Thank you. Let's take a look at some of


the other stories making the news. The UK Government will publish its


pre-position paper on Brexit. The average pay packet for a FTSE 100


brokers has risen by 20% in the past year. The figure fell to $4.5


million. It appears that policies which were introduced appear to be


working. Elon Musk and other technology


leaders have issued a stark warning about so-called "killer robots",


urging the United Nations to act In an open letter to the UN,


they say lethal autonomous weapons threaten a "third


revolution in warfare". More than 100 robotics


and artificial intelligence industry Mr Musk has long spoken


out about the dangers Pretty terrifying thought. I don't


like the idea of killer robots. Maybe that is stating the obvious.


We have been asking you how you feel about killer robots. Robots in


general, not just killer robots! Send us your tweets. That is what


David has done. He only fears them taking over at BBC business life. So


do we! Also today, a big


money deal for oil. The Russian oil giant Rosneft is set


to announce a $13 billion deal to buy Indian private refiner


Essar Oil. The deal would give Rosneft access


to the world's fastest Essar Oil has 3,000


petrol stations in India. Sameer Hashmi is in Mumbai, he's


been following the story for us. Tauqir us through this deal?


Potentially brings together a huge market for consumers and one of the


world's biggest oil providers. It seems like a win, win. That is how


both sides have been selling the deal. There were various issues. As


far as the Russians are concerned, this deal gives them access to one


of the largest fuel consumer market in the world. India, as you know,


consumes a lot of oil. The demand has been increasing. It relies a lot


on imports. What is going to happen with this deal is they will get


access to this market. Esser already has a huge refinery where it


produces 400,000 barrels of oil a day. 3000 retail units is something


they will get with this deal. For Esser this deal is also important


because it is a huge conglomerate in India with huge debts. So by selling


this company there will be able to write off this debt. That is one of


the reasons why this deal got delayed. A lot of lenders were


blocking this deal. They wanted the debt paid beforehand. That is why it


has taken so much time. But it has finally happened. It will be


interesting to see how the Russians go ahead with it. This gives them an


important market to enter. Given all the US sanctions in the last couple


of years, this will be really, really positive news. Analysts say


it is a win, win deal for both India, because it will provide


imports, and for Russia, who get a new market. Thank you for explaining


all of that. Big-money deals and a lot at stake. I want to reiterate


the news we talked about at the start of the programme. China's


great Wall motor company asking for a meeting with Fiat Chrysler. This,


we understand, will be with a view to making an offer for all or part


of Fiat Chrysler. That is an Italian-American car-maker. Just


looking at shares, up 3.5% in Europe. Clearly, investors, in these


early stages, liking what they see. A lot of implications of that deal


was to get the go-ahead. A quick look at what happened in Asia. That


is the close in the US on Friday. The Nikki and Hang Seng down. --


Nikkei. Whether this means anything for a President Trump's economic


policies... Fiat Chrysler up 3.5%. The best looking pretty miserable at


the start of a new week. We will talk about why in just a moment.


Jeremy Cooke is with us. Let's find out what is happening on Wall


Street. The week that starts with the solar


eclipse will end with investors hoping that the annual Jacksonville


gathering sheds some light on monetary policy. Central bankers


from around the globe, including Janet Yellen, and Mario Draghi, will


meet in Wyoming beginning on Thursday. The Fed is expected to


reduce its balance sheet this year, selling off assets it required after


the financial crash. It hasn't set a specific schedule yet, which is why


Wall Street will be looking for any clues. Closer to home, this Monday,


the Chicago Federal reserve will release its activity index, a


barometer of economic activity. In corporate news, BHP Billiton is


expected to report earnings. Wall Street is looking for the minor to


show improvement and that commodity prices are picking up. More from


Michelle later. And we'll be hearing more


from Michelle later in the show, when she will be explaining how


companies plan to make big bucks out Joining us is Jeremy Cook,


chief economist at World First. Let's touch first on America. What


could the Jackson hold meeting -- what does the Jackson hold meeting


mean? It is in Wyoming in the United States. It is a talking shop central


bankers and policymakers. It has a significant importance for market in


that in the past five and six years, certainly throughout the global


financial crisis, central banks have used this to test out new policy


ideas, floating boat by saying, we might be looking at policy,


increased interest rates, for example. Janet Yellen and Mario


Draghi will be there. Expect them to suggest what their saddlebags could


be doing. One of the things that will be on Janet Yellen's mind is


the weak dollar? That is right, and how it feeds into inflation


expectations. We have seen some softening in inflation. The rate has


been risen three times in recent months. That hasn't been felt on the


US dollar. We talked about Nafta at the start of the programme. And


clearly, President Trump's threats to scrap it entirely. It will be


interesting, given what we have also heard this morning, that the Chinese


great Wall motor company are asking for a meeting with Fiat Chrysler,


will Trump be happy about this? Well, I don't know, is Trump happy


about anything at the moment? You would have to say not. This is


another thing he will want to try to protect, the great US manufacturing


economy. It is about the headline. Not necessarily the intricacies of


the deal. The psychological element? Another Chinese corporate raider


coming in for an American company, Chrysler. You look at all the cars,


the emotion behind that brand within the United States. Whether Trump de


facto dismisses it because he doesn't want to see the Chinese


taking over such a huge part of Americana. Moving forward, we look


at it in Brexit, Trump, China, trade is the thing. Businesses transacting


internationally trying to move money around the world, what politics goes


against that will be the major delineate of global growth going


forward. If we can free that up, everybody will be better.


Stay with us, still to come, we will meet the woman behind a networking


app for new mothers called Peanut to help them juggle careers and kids.


Stay tuned for that, that is coming up, you are with Business Live from


BBC News. Let's talk about our favourite story in the UK, house


prices. The average house price has soared


by nearly ?85,000 over the past five years,


according to research from Lloyds. The typical price paid by


home-movers is up 41% to ?290,000. Joining us now from


the Nottingham newsroom I just wonder how this breaks down


across the country. Well, it is a huge breakdown, and a bit of an


exaggerated price growth, because we had the height of the market in


2007, that then fell to 2009 through to about 2013 in most places, so


what we are picking up this price growth from the lower of the market.


So if you take the north-east, where they are looking at pricing creases,


if you compare prices today there'ss 2007, there is still a 9% fall and


deficit there. If you go to London, you are looking at areas that 40% or


80% up. So we hugely regional picture, but the last five years is


not the best barometer of house prices. I wanted to ask about that,


because so much as happened in the last 12 or 18 months that could


change some of the fundamentals for the market. You couldn't be more


right, the fundamentals of the property market are completely


changing, and I am not sure that the Government, industry or consumers


really quite and stand what is happening at there, but we can show


market whereby you have got one property on a street, maybe three


beds detached, going up in price, you have got collapsed on the other


end of the street which Dell haven't recovered to 2007 levels. -- which


still haven't recovered. Then you might have a property that has been


doing well but is now starting to fall in value. So what we are really


seeing is London, East Anglia and the south-east, they have had a


massive spurt, great growth, that has now come to a natural slowdown,


partly because of caps on mortgage lending. The Midlands not doing too


badly, but not performing anything like the rate it was before the


credit crunch. And in the north, not really seeing anything for ten


years. Really good to see you, thanks for talking us through all


that, a story we will talk much more about, I'm sure.


The French energy giant Total has significantly increased its presence


in the North Sea oil and gas industry, more on that online.


You with Business Live from BBC News. I just want to remind you of


the breaking news we brought you at the of the programme, Kvyat priser


shares are up 3.5%. -- be at Chrysler. A Chinese company, Great


Wall, are planning to make an offer for all or part of the company.


There are some reports that they may be after the Jeep brand, one of the


more lucrative brands in that stable. A quick look at how the


markets are faring, this is how they looked in Europe at the start of the


trading week. Let's turn our attention to


something entirely different. For most new mothers,


being at home caring for a new baby It's often hard to meet


like-minded people. So one new mum took matters


into her own hands and Peanut is kind of like


a dating app for new mums. It brings new mums together


who are going through the same It was co-founded


by former deputy chief executive of dating app Badoo,


Michelle Kennedy, and one of Deliveroo's


co-founders, Greg Orlowski. Kennedy started the app


after struggling to meet other mums she could relate to,


while also working. Her app, Peanut, is designed


to provide a network for mothers. Welcome to Business Live, based on


your own experience, but are people not getting to know each other over


things like WhatsApp, Facebook, all those existing networks? Why was


there a need for this? Two main reasons. When I had my little boy, I


have gone from working 1 million mph, working all of the time, all of


a sudden I was at home with him and feeling very much like I wasn't sure


where my life had gone in terms of social interaction. It is quite


hard, particularly in those initial days, you are not really going to


the baby classes, you are not leaving the house as much, and it


was winter for me, a double whammy. I really felt like I wanted to


connect with someone on my wavelength, and I didn't always want


to have a conversation about babies - sometimes I just wanted to have a


conversation about the usual stuff, something or nothing. None of my


girlfriends had had babies yet, so having worked in the dating


industry, it felt like a natural progression to take everything I


have lent, the dating algorithms that are traditionally used, and


apply it to women. So it is not just as simple as saying you have got a


new baby, let's go for a coffee, it is more complicated than that. I had


a lot of those experiences, you have to meet my friend, she has got a new


baby as well! Then you meet and have not thing in common. We take your


social graph, we take your location, and the more you use the app, the


more intelligent it becomes about the type of woman you want to meet.


Sometimes it will be related to your child, your pregnancy, some times it


will just be about you, your career, where you studied, what language you


speak. And is it just mums? Currently it is just for women, and


never say never, but that was the real focus that we had, that was the


thing I experienced. What is the main thing it does? You build this


network, the danger is people would meet their friends and move onto


other apps? A second pain point for me was we would meet connections,


you have these women around you, and now you are in... You mentioned


WhatsApp or any other group, and there are messages flying back and


forth, and you are trying to arrange dates to meet, maybe you want to go


for a glass of wine, or have the kids together, and before you know


it's there are 200 messages about it, so we have a scheduling feature


in the chat, you can vote on that, three clicks and you have arranged a


date to meet. Impressive start. Thank you. And you say it is android


as well as Apple? From today, yes. Thank you very much. In a minute, we


will look through the business pages, but first a reminder of how


you can get in touch. In a moment, we'll take a look


through the business pages, but first here's a quick reminder


of how to get in touch with us. The Business Live page


is where you can stay ahead with all the breaking businesses


of the day keep up to date with the latest details with insight


and analysis from the BBC's team And we want to hear


from you as well, get involved on our web page,


and on Twitter, Business Live, on TV and online,


whenever you need to know. The BBC's Dominic


O'Connell is with us. We are going to start with the


killer robots warning story. Why is Elon Musk putting this warning out?


He says there needs to be something like a Geneva Convention on the use


of killer robots or artificial intelligence getting involved in the


weapons business. You might say it already is, the US uses lots of


drones, we do as well, and they rely on very sophisticated technology,


including people, so where do you draw the line? Will you have


completely autonomous weapons that can kill people? Maybe the UN should


say whether they can do that. We already have things for chemical


weapons and nuclear weapons, why not on these as well? And a debate about


how more developed countries are more advanced in terms of this.


Absolutely, America will lead the way, they have the lead in that kind


of technology. We have been asking, do you embrace the robot future?


Robin says I am sure intelligent machines will hurt us at some point,


it is just about degree. Margaret says, I fear that robots will kill


human resources in the technology sector. Somebody says, put them in


supermarkets to stop queue jumpers! There are normal users for these


robots, this is about the militarisation. It is all about the


terminator films, if we know how this is going to go, just watch the


films, they will take over! We still need to be in control, that is the


issue. We want them to have intelligence, but it is where they


stopped taking on their own ideas. It is that scary Facebook trial, the


robots started communicating with each other in a language their


programmers could not understand, that is when you have to pull the


plug! Really nice to see you, thanks very much. We will be back at the


same time tomorrow, have a great day tomorrow.


This is a warm front moving north, and behind it is tropical air


boozing in which will make it feel quite humid for many of


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