18/12/2017 BBC Business Live

But does this herald a new era for

the distressed economy?

Live from London, that's our top

story on Business Live,

on Monday 18th December.

We're live in Johannesburg to assess

whether a new political future can

revive investor confidence

and kick-start the troubled economy.

Also in the programme...

Donald Trump's much-hyped tax

cuts move a step closer,

but will they really create jobs

and lure back big

business to the US?

And ahead of the holiday week -

traders sign off, but they'll be

keeping an eye on eurozone inflation

due later and US growth figures

expected later in the week.

And we'll be getting the inside

track on culture vultures -

and how technology has changed

the way we book tickets to concerts,

the cinema or theatre.

Also, we want to know...

Facebook finally admits social media

can harm mental health,

but says post more

to improve wellbeing -

what do you think?

Just use the hashtag BBCBizLive.

Let's get this right, Facebook says

it could harm mental health, but

also it says to solve that, you

should post more? Let us know what

you think, just use the hashtag and

we will be discussing this later in

the programme.

South Africa's ruling ANC party

is electing a new leader.

There are two candidates -

Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa,

or Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma,

a former cabinet minister

and ex-wife of President Zuma.

But whoever gets the job, faces

a monumental challenge of reviving

investor confidence in South Africa

and revitalising an economy which

has been left in tatters by Zuma.

The current president inherited

an economy in distress in 2009,

but he also made it worse.

Under his leadership -

which has been defined by corruption

and the weakening of

the country's institutions -

South Africa has endured two

economic recessions

in less than a decade.

Unemployment stands

at a whopping 27.7%.

The growth forecast

for this year is just 0.7%.

And government debt is more

than two trillion rand.

The dire state of the economy

and its level of debt have led S&P

and Fitch to cut SA's credit rating

to junk, while Moody's

is keeping it just above junk

status, but on review.

Lerato Mbele joins us

from Johannesburg.

It's good to see you. Bring us up to

date with the latest, as we said,

it's down to these final two

candidates. What can we expect to

hear later?

It has been an evening

of voting and early hours of voting

for delegates at the ANC conference.

A short while ago we were told that

one more region was due to cast

their votes and then counting would

begin. It is a slow and arduous

process but hopefully by the

mid-afternoon we should be hearing

who the new president of the ANC

will be, along with his five

officials who will lead the

organisation in what many expect to

be a new era. Of course, as you are

suggesting, there is a lot of

speculation as to who is likely to

win in a two horse race between

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Cyril

Ramaphosa. All bets, it seems, are

on Cyril Ramaphosa winning and to

that end we have seen the South

African rand recovering by nearly

70% overnight. While the voting has

been taking place, the round is at

its strongest level since September.

Traders are hoping the winner will

be the businessmen turned politician

Cyril Ramaphosa, but for us to get

confirmation, we still have a few

more hours to wait as the votes are

tallied.

Thank you, we know that you

will keep us up to date with events

there.

Ben Payton is the Head

of Africa Research at global risk

consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.

Welcome to the programme. You were

listening to all of that, what is

your thoughts? We were just talking

about the fact that the rand has

gained overnight, is that because

they are hoping that Cyril Ramaphosa

is going to get the job because they

know that this marks the ending of

President Zuma's rain?

I think it is

because investors are desperate for

Cyril Ramaphosa to win, it looks

like he is in strong possession,

there is a chance of upset.

Investors have been hoping for the

end of the Jacob Zuma error for a

long time and they will be looking

for Cyril Ramaphosa to signal a new

economic direction -- era. If he

takes over the ANC and institute a

period of do no harm economy.

He is

one of the wealthiest in South

Africa, he is the deputy leader of

the ANC at the moment. Is he free of

any questions surrounding

corruption? It isn't just President

Zuma seen as someone who has dodgy

dealings, as it were, but other

people within the ANC?

Cyril

Ramaphosa has had a successful

career as a trade unionist, what he

is accused of is failing to stand up

to Jacob Zuma. He has been the

deputy president for the last

several years and has kept fairly

quiet about the corruption and

cronyism state and a Jacob Zuma

until quite recently. But

personally, he is not tainted in the

same way by corruption.

And if he

were to get the job, Zouma will

remain president until 2019 unless

there is something going on after

Cyril Ramaphosa's appointment, what

is your hope of seeing a beginning

of a turnaround for the South

African economy, as Ben pointed out,

statistics right now are pretty

dire?

The economy is in bad shape,

that could be due to them pushing

Jacob Zuma out more quickly than we

expect. If Ramaphosa takes over the

ANC, in theory, it would be quite

easy for him to force Zuma out of

office and he can get on with the

job of turning the economy around

and a key point will be the budget

announced in February, the fiscal

deficit is now up to about 4% of

GDP. So, investors will be looking

for Ramaphosa to take steps to lower

that. That could be the last chance

to save South Africa's credit rating

with Moody 's.

Ben, thank you. Of

course, they want to try and win the

election in 2019, it's quite a task

on their hands.

Absolutely. Full coverage on that as

we get more news from South Africa.

Let's take a look at some of

the other stories making the news.

A power failure has

caused massive disruption

at the world's busiest airport -

Atlanta in the US.

The failure seems to have

been caused by a fire

in an underground plant.

Three major airlines, United,

American and South-West,

all suspended operations

at the airport.

The airport said power

has now been restored.

A UK think tank has proposed

a post-Brexit trading deal based

on the UK and the EU sharing

each other's markets.

The Institute for Public Policy

Research says it would expect

the two markets to share the same

rules and regulations but form

a new customs union similar

to the existing one.

Ryanair pilots have suspended

a one-day strike planned

for before Christmas.

The Impact union, which represents

Irish-based pilots, has agreed

to meet Ryanair's management

on Tuesday, ahead of the planned

action on Wednesday.

The strike could have caused misery

for thousands of travellers

as the great Christmas

getaway got underway.

The latest Star Wars movie,

The Last Jedi, has generated more

than $450 million in ticket sales

on its opening weekend.

In North America,

it's at second place

in the all-time box office list,

behind only Star Wars:

The Force Awakens,

released in 2015.

Time for a look at the markets... US

numbers finishing higher... As we

mentioned at the start, the rest

will pass tax reform plans, that

would cut business tax, down to 21%.

The big question is, will that be

enough to get funds to move back to

the US if they have moved overseas,

or actually create jobs? Using money

they saved from the tax bill to

invest in business? That's a

question a lot of investors are

banking on. The week before

Christmas is normally quiet but

there are things for us to watch out

for this week. Europe, let's get an

inflation of date. It is expected to

come in at 1.5%, slightly up from

1.4%. Remember, the European Central

Bank, like the Bank of England, has

a target of 2%, it's the opposite

problem here in the UK. The

president of the EU no sense -- the

president of the Central bank will

try and give this a notch. On

Thursday we get the revised

third-quarter figures in the US.

That's how the markets are looking.

Let's go over to Wall Street.

Everybody is waiting for President

Trump to sign the Republican tax

reform Bill. It's his first major

economic victory since taking

office. Companies are looking

forward to a Christmas gift in the

shape of a big reduction in

corporate tax rate. Figures will

also show how many construction

rejects were started in November and

they are expected to be a little

lower than in October. Sales of new

homes are likely to have slowed but

there might be some good news,

consumer spending numbers are

expected to have risen, and

companies releasing earnings this

week are package delivery firm FedEx

as well as Nike.

Joining us is Simon Derrick,

Chief Markets Strategist,

at the Bank of New York Mellon.

When you away for Christmas?

This

Thursday!

Nothing is happening in

the city on Friday?

It always

happens while I'm away!

LAUGHTER

Don't leave your desk on a Friday!

Simon is not around! We were talking

about various stories Aldi today,

Ben talking about record highs in

the States, a strong session in Asia

and looking at Europe now, following

this upward trend.

It is, a of it

has been driven by the excitement of

tax cuts or proposed tax cuts, this

will give an enormous boost to the

economy.

And earnings in particular,

some say a 15% rise in earnings

because of the corporate tax rate

coming down?

That's the theory but

I've struggled a little, and the

reason is over because of the last

five, six or seven years, the cost

of borrowing for companies has been

ultralow. If anybody wanted to make

advances for their companies, it was

incredibly easy for them to do so.

I'm not really certain that cutting

the corporate tax rate will do that.

The money has to come from

somewhere, we are talking about over

£1 trillion of tax cuts. That adds

to the US deficit, the money will be

borrowed, the pressure of borrowing

rates, that will make life a little

harder. It is like borrowing from

Peter to pay Paul. I'm not certain

it feeds through in the way that F1

is so excited about.

-- everyone is

so excited about. They do have a

point though, in some respects, for

business, it isn't immediately going

to translate?

That's the argument,

some tax cuts come in but on an

individual level, it will not start

to impact until late next year at

the earliest. In terms of an

immediate boost to spending,

probably not.

We will talk more

later...

Simon will give us his

response to a question we've had on

the programme. So many of you have

got in search with us, that Facebook

have admitted that social media is

bad for your mental health.

A lot of

comments coming in. Holly says that

her doctor told her this, but here

she is, on social media!

Maybe we

should have a social media free day?

That is my weekend!

You are quite

good at switching off over the

weekend. We cannot get hold of you!

Forget it!

Still to come, we speak to the boss

of one firm who lets you pay less

for the theatre. This is Business

Live on BBC News.

The Department for Work and Pensions

is set to publish its review

of automatic enrolment today.

Under new plans, workers

as young as 18 will be

auto-enroled into pensions,

in a bid to boost savings.

Joining us now is Nathan Long,

Senior Pension Analyst,

Hargreaves Lansdown.

It was in a lot of the Sunday papers

yesterday, this attempt to get more

young people saving from an earlier

age. That has got to be welcome news

because people simply are not

putting enough away?

Absolutely.

People are -- young people are being

auto enrolled earlier, 18 instead of

22. The other big change is for

people paying into their pension,

their contribution will start from

the first pounds note they earn. --

from the first pound they earn. That

would be a big benefit. We estimate

that someone an average earnings,

they will have £60,000 more in their

pension pot. Really positive

changes.

Can business afford this?

That is a good question. The change

in the contribution structure itself

we think will cost £176 per employee

for businesses. I think what we have

seen from the review is that it is

not going to be implemented

straightaway. They are talking about

mid-2000 and 20. Plenty of lead in

time for businesses. -- mid 2020s.

The bigger issue for businesses is

that from April of next year and

April 2019, the amount that needs to

be paid in by employers will be

increasing anywhere.

Thank you very

much, Nathan. Thank you for

explaining that. It is really

interesting, getting more of us to

save at an earlier age. Do you know

the story we have been following

about the honour of pound land?

Doubts over pounds and suppliers

after insurance caught. -- Cook.

Credit insurers reduced their cover

for the retailer. This is all after

one of its leading companies has

basically been called into question.

More detail on that story. Do take a

look when you have time.

You're watching Business Live -

our top story - South Africa's

economy under the spotlight

as its ruling party scrabbles

to find a new leader.

Looking for a new leader of the ANC

to take over from President Zuma.

Let's look at financial markets in

Europe. All extremely strong and

positive following a similar session

in Asia and record closes in Wall

Street on Friday. When we hear news

of who has been selected to lead the

ANC, we will let you know. I had a

very cultural week last week. I went

to the theatre twice and the cinema

once.

I have got social life envy

when it comes to Ben!

It's that time of year -

when we might think about a trip

to a concert, the cinema,

or the theatre.

And technology has been changing

the way we book tickets

for cultural events.

And it's a growing industry.

Box office income rose by 18%

between 2013 and 2016.

That growth is partly due to more

tickets being available but theatres

being able to fill more

seats, more easily.

One firm that's tapped

into that market is TodayTix.

It allows users to buy tickets

at the last minute or up

to a month in advance.

It's got 3.6 million users around

the world who've spent

$150 million on tickets.

But that's mostly in

the US so the company has

big plans to expand.

Merritt Baer is co-founder and Head

of Europe for TodayTix.

Welcome to the programme. You are

mostly in American cities. You are

in Toronto. You are also in London.

When did you establish your?

We

launched two and a half years ago.

We have a wonderful interface and a

user base of hundreds of thousands

of users. With an average age of 29.

A younger demographic.

How do you

compete in London? There are so many

different apps, websites, way to get

tickets rather than ringing the

theatre itself?

Sure. We have

focused on a preemie user

experience. Via our mobile app,

website. We make sure we have the

best prices, the best seats across

the West End and across culture.

Musicals, plays, opera, dance. With

these amazing access programmes we

work with a third of the shows in

the West End on lottery programmes,

maybe for £20 tickets for the front

row for a show. Where you can on the

day sign up first thing in the

morning and access tickets for the

best of the West End.

How does the

relationship you have with the

theatre work? Why is it not cheaper

for me just to call the theatre? Why

go through a middleman?

We work

directly with every theatre owner,

producer and director in the West

End to offer our customers the best

seats at the best prices. We have

great prices. Some of these access

programmes. You can see the RSC at

the Barbican for £10.

Does the

theatre, go to you and say, we have

got 50 seats still empty, we need to

get rid of them? Can they offer you

a cheaper rate?

We work in a variety

of ways with different shows.

Working with our partners and

finding out their needs. Do they

need more audience numbers for this

Tuesday? How do we help them with

fulfilling seats for weeks in

advance because they are already

sold out for this week?

I was

excited when I learned about your

app a week ago -- a year ago. I have

got three children. To take a big

party to the theatre is really

expensive. You want to expose your

children to the magic of theatre.

Yet you can't afford it. Yet every

time I went on your app to find

something, I couldn't find it for

four people or more. Lots of tickets

for one and Briton. I struggled to

get a booking for four or more. Is

that an issue? There are not many

tickets together.

I think it depends

on the show. It is whatever the show

has available. If you are looking

for tonight, if you look for maybe

this Saturday, the next anatomy,

even for the hottest shows, whether

that is Aladdin, maybe a few days

out we could find you four great

seats together.

Briefly, how did it

come about? You look dead Uber and

thought, we need this for theatres?

We found that the company about five

years ago. We were twentysomethings

at the time. We were inspired by a

bunch of other great user

experiences that are mobile. Brian

and I have produced Broadway shows

and working on the West End. We

thought, why is there not a similar

experience? That is how it came

about.

How does this compare to

putting on a Broadway show?

There

are two very different experiences.

We have an amazing team in London

and New York. It has been a

fantastic experience.

Thanks for

coming in today.

Thank you.

And staying with theatres

and cinemas - chances

are you've seen a movie lately

on a huge screen.

The cinema company IMAX has been

working with studios to shoot more

and more films especially

for their super-sized

screens - like Dunkirk

and the latest Star Wars.

But boss Richard Gelfond admits that

when he took over the firm,

he might have gone a little

over-board in promoting

the new technology.

The CEO's secret is don't try to

make people go into a new niche

business. Figure out a way to go

into a business they are used to,

not make people change what they do.

The strategy in general was to get

mainstream film-makers to film movie

in IMAX. And on the other hand to

get exhibition chains around the

world to build IMAX theatres. I will

never forget Stephen Spielberg, we

asked for a film in IMAX early on,

and he said, tell them to call me

when they have a thousand theatres.

We had less than 100. It was a

chicken and egg macro situation.

We figured out a way to take regular

films not needing the cameras, and

convert them to IMAX. We figured out

a way to take regular theatres and

developed new equipment to create

the IMAX image. So essentially we

went into their business rather than

the other way around.

I have never heard a news report

with such dramatic music.

Where have

you been?! They were talking about

Star Wars and Dunkirk. I've been

trying to do some work. Let's talk

about Facebook. Social media is bad

for your mental health, Facebook

admits. We have had such a huge

response. Most people say, yes.

I

think the truly remarkable bit is

the bit that Ben Pate up on at the

start. They say the solution to it

is to do more Facebook.

Clearly they

need to keep engagement. They make

money from the advertisers.

I have

to say, there are bits of social

media I absolutely love macro. I

love Instagram. And I love the

responses you get back. I love the

fact your family and friends...

You

see it as positive?

Absolutely. You

have to pick and choose. If you

become obsessive, that can be

different. If there is a bit that

fits in your life, like Instagram,

it is great.

They are here to stay,

social media. It is not like we're

going to stop using them. They are

around. Cos they invaluable.

For

everything we do it matters. Whether

you're talking about it on a

personal level, interacting with

clients, whether you're talking

about giving commentary about the

markets, it matters.

Thank you,

Simon. Have wonderful Christmas. And

you. We will see you tomorrow.

I

will see you