Wed, 13 Jul 2011 CF99

Good evening and welcome to the programme.

Tonight, what next for devolution in Wales?

David Cameron announces a new commission

but will Scotland shape the discussion in Wales?

Joining us is Helen Mary Jones the former AM for Plaid Cymru,

political commentator, Rod Richards

and Jon Owen Jones, a former Labour minister.

The Rupert Murdoch story has been in the headlines in Westminster,

but Carwyn Jones' view on devolution has been hitting the headlines here.

David Cameron has announced there will be a commission

to look at the future of Welsh devolution

so what next for the Assembly?

With power, you have accountability according to Mr Cameron.

Does that mean tax-raising powers?

In Scotland, the ambition of the SNP is clear

a referendum on independence.

So to what extent will that discussion in Scotland

shape the discussions here in Wales? Owain Clarke reports.

On this programme, we are always eager to find stories

that fire your imagination.

In the context of British politics at the moment,

you won't get a better story than what is happening down there.

On some occasions, the political excitement can be felt.

The political landscape can move in front of your eyes.

For everything there is a season and a time.

For Scotland, for this Parliament,

this can be a good season and a good time.

Who would have thought in 2003 when the SNP won

that eight years later it would accomplish one of its main goals,

holding a referendum on independence.

Most of the SNP members

in the Scottish Parliament are seismic.

They can pass policies which they couldn't do before.

People will wait and see what will happen in the next three years.

The system in Scotland means that no-one can have a majority.

The SNP knocked out of the ballpark with the latest results.

After the vote, Alex Salmond wanted to appear presidential

but what was the secret?

A lot of people voted for the SNP, not for independence,

but for the best team to run the country.

The SNP is amazing as a machine.

On top of that in Salmond they have one of the most

charismatic political figures of our age.

He was a year ahead of me at St Andrew's University.

We were both a little smaller in build than we are now.

He has charisma.

Alex Salmond's charisma is part of the problem.

It is what the Australians call tall poppy syndrome.

The fact he is such a big presence in a military country like Scotland

that is an advantage.

He is a real Marmite man, you either love him or you hate him.

Marmite or not, one Edinburgh lady who has lived here for years

offers a new theory.

I thought a lot of him.

I don't know why, he's not handsome. He hasn't got any sex appeal,

but we all like him.

He doesn't frighten women, at your peril.

Normal things are important for him.

Things to do with children and family and heritage.

From the north downwards, Scotland doesn't want to lose that.

But if there's room for argument about the reason,

there is no doubt about the effect.

The opinion polls suggest at the moment that most voters

are against independence.

Salmond's Government will do everything to try and persuade them.

Does this mean that Scottish people are about to decide

that independence is something that is within their reach?

And that is it something that they want?

Or have they decided that this is an effective way

to see what they can get from Westminster?

If that is the aim, the SNP has already succeeded.

With one eye on their own referendum,

the UK Government has agreed to devolve important financial powers.

A test of the political truth maybe that power does count.

Some say that casts a shadow over Wales.

The problem for Labour in Wales

is that there is conservative constitution in its manifesto.

The referendum was over and they didn't want to go back to it

because it created internal problems.

The problem Carwyn Jones has is, because of Alex Salmond and the SNP,

constitutional questions are at the top of the agenda.

Alex Salmond doesn't just want a referendum on independence,

but he wants concessions.

The British Government must give concessions.

In Plaid Cymru, you've a comparison with its sister party,

which makes members feel uncomfortable.

It underlines how disappointing their performance was in 2011.

Geography can often offer convenient political comparisons.

Yes, Scottish political enthusiasm reaches far beyond Holyrood.

The question is whether the momentum will gather pace or not.

Helen Mary Jones,

there are many differences between Wales and Scotland,

but one of the big differences is that charismatic figure,

the leader of the SNP.

That is true. In the current context,

we can compare Alex Salmond and Carwyn Jones.

The two First Ministers.

One of them has big ambitions for his country,

putting Cameron and others on the spot saying,

"You need to offer financial powers."

The other is not very ambitious at all,

and is unclear as to what it is he wants to do in Wales.

We'll return to that point, we have plenty of time.

It appears to me as though you have a man who is a leader,

he has a strategy, and so does his party.

There isn't a comparison to be made between that

and Plaid Cymru's situation,

where Plaid Cymru enjoyed being in power but didn't have a strategy

to gain power.

There's no doubt that Alex Salmond is a very special figure,

a once-in-a-generation type figure, if that.

As a party we need to accept that fact.

We didn't take advantage of all the good work we did in government.

We must also remember that Plaid Cymru

is more than a power-seeking party.

It was important we played a part in the government

to secure a referendum

so that we could take a step towards a better Welsh government.

I can say one thing to you,

and I don't mean to rake up an old argument,

but Alex Salmond wouldn't have chosen to be deputy first minister,

instead of first minister.

It's a difficult question, and it was a difficult question in 2007.

We should respect Ieuan for sacrificing becoming First Minister

to take the constitutional step that was necessary

so that ruling Wales would become clearer.

What we have to do now as a party, and the process is in place,

is to secure we develop that clear strategy

and that we then select a new leader.

Ieuan's said that there's a process in place for him to step down,

as Rhodri Morgan did.

Then we'll know which path we want to follow

and which path we want to make sure the country follows,

then we'll select the right person to bring that forward.

Jon Owen Jones, you know Alex Salmond,

you've seen him perform in parliament.

Rod Richards, what about you?

Could you see the prospective first minister on those benches?

I saw the way he behaved in Westminster as very similar

to the way he's behaved as Scottish first minister.

In Westminster, one thing about him was that his reason for being there

was always very clear in his mind.

He wasn't there to act as opposition to the serving government,

he was there to represent Scotland in Westminster.

What we now see in Scotland is that he's there

to be in the Scottish Government,

not to be in opposition to the Tories and Liberals in Westminster.

That is the biggest difference, I would say,

between him and Carwyn Jones.

Carwyn Jones behaves like an opposition party in Westminster,

rather than being in government in Wales.

If I may add to that, if you look at other European countries,

even though they have different opinions,

they don't fall out with each other publicly.

I'm sure they do in private, but in public, they respect each other.

That's where the Welsh Government falls down,

it behaves like an opposition party.

David Cameron was here yesterday.

Carwyn Jones said they'd had some very successful meetings.

Does Alex Salmond have any lessons to teach Carwyn Jones?

If I can respond to what's been said about Alex Salmond,

I agree that Alex Salmond is unique.

He always held everyone's attention at the House of Commons.

To do that, you need to demand respect, even if you're not liked.

My understanding of what you were referring to with Helen,

to do with who was ready to become deputy first minister,

rather than first minister,

my understanding was that Ieuan had no party that would follow him.

Alex Salmond's situation was different.

Even though Alex Salmond is charismatic anda strong leader,

the biggest difference is that the SNP's strategy

over the coming ten years is totally different to Plaid Cymru's.

Plaid Cymru is trying to be the voice of Wales,

through leading a strategy to the left of Labour.

The SNP is the voice of Scotland,

aiming straight down the middle.

-That's much more important...

-Can I just respond?

It isn't right to say the party wasn't willing to follow Ieuan.

That's not true because the vote wasn't taken.

It's no secret that I was against the idea.

Had a vote been taken, I'm sure people would have supported him.

He's cleverer than you.

Look at what he's doing in Scotland with the Royal Family.

Most SNP supporters are probably republicans,

but they don't say so publicly.

They show respect for the Royal Family. You don't do that.

-That's part of the strategy.

-Individuals don't do that.

Allow me to raise a related point.

Wait a moment. Wait a moment, Jon.

This lack of respect.

There was a lack of respect for David Cameron yesterday.

Perhaps in contrast to what Rod said about foreign countries,

these politicians get on well inside Carwyn's office.

But Labour members looked down, didn't applaud,

didn't rise to their feet as Cameron left,

Bethan Jenkins heckled him.

That isn't mature politics, is it?

Well, no. I don't think it was...

The thing you need to consider,

if you want to talk about the majority of people,

you need to be sure you don't insult people.

Even though I myself am a republican,

I never would have done what some people in Plaid Cymru did,

because I would have thought about some of the people who support me

who could maybe take offence to that.

But what about the Prime Minister?

Whatever you think of the Queen,

the British Prime Minister is elected.

You have to show him some respect.

We need to operate on two levels.

Had David Cameron come here to explain this commission,

as everybody expected him to do,

he had kept his nose out of devolved matters,

perhaps AMs, I can't speak on their behalf...

-Who told you what he was to say?

-He told the press.

It's true, Rod. You can look shocked if you like.

If we can just return to Scotland.

To what extent is the argument in Scotland over independence,

and Alex Salmond is clear over independence,

where your party isn't,

even though people like Adam Price are calling on you to be clearer,

to what extent will that argument shape the one here?

One thing that's been consistent in opinion polls since devolution

is that if you ask people whether they want the same powers

as Scotland, they say yes, perhaps without knowing what they are.

If people in Scotland decide to take it forward,

as it said in the package, the fact that the SNP has a majority

doesn't necessarily mean the SNP will win the referendum.

Alex Salmond won't hold the referendum if he might not win.

I think there'll be a knock-on effect.

It's important we bear in mind other factors,

the fact that the press is independent in Scotland.

But does an honesty belong to the SNP which doesn't belong to your party?

I don't think honesty is the word but clarity.

Perhaps we haven't been clear. It's been in every manifesto.

Perhaps we didn't make it prominent.

I think the SNP have been very intelligent.

They say, of course we support independence but we also discuss

housing, schools, energy and much more.

They put it out there, park it and then they can't be accused

of not doing anything.

I agree with Adam Price here. This is the time to be honest

and to say that our dream as a party is independence.

I and a lot of others inside the party have been doing that.

And the leadership not listening?

No, not listening because you can't blame individuals.

I think that we have been a little bit too cautious in the party.

I think that the way forward

is to park is as the SNP's doing.

We could say, of course we'll look at it in the future

but today we are discussing housing or the welfare state.

John, is there a problem for Labour here?

Scotland will have much more powers.

They can't have independence but they have have Devo Max.

Isn't there a danger Welsh Labour are looking a bit conservative

in the things they are asking for?

The fact is that in 50 years,

and since we started talking about devolution,

Scotland has lead the way. Wales has followed suit.

We never would have won the first referendum

if Scotland hadn't done it first.

Things are starting to form a pattern.

You say that Welsh Labour have been more conservative,

perhaps this reflects what the people of Wales are like,

because they are more conservative with constitutional change.

I'm not sure whether the Scots will support a referendum

on independence or not.

But I would never have thought that the SNP would win a majority,

so I'm not sure.

People understand that it's natural for the Labour Party to want

to discuss this issue again.

We've had the devolution, do we want to discuss this issue again?

But it's impossible to avoid discussing the issue

because of Scotland, but when so many people don't know

if they want corporate tax or if they want a separate court system.

Should he give leadership?

We had leadership in the referendum, they didn't discuss it at all!

If I was in Carwyn's shoes, I would do exactly the same thing.

He is trying to work out the affect on Wales.

This would be very complicated for Wales, especially financing it.

It would be very easy to box you into a corner

where you would be in a bad position financially.

Let's look at corporate tax for example,

if Scotland and Northern Ireland can reduce it,

and we can't, it's obvious that this isn't fair.

If Carwyn isn't convinced that this isn't the right thing to do,

he should say that

The fact that he is a bit flaky, he comes out of these meetings

looking like he can't make his mind up.

Can we forget the pennies for a while and talk about the big money,

which is the welfare state.

It's going to cost £9 billion a year.

Adam Price needs to sit down for half an hour with Eurfyl ap Gwilym

and he needs to explain why independence is an option

during our time.

I remember you saying that devolution wasn't an option either!

I never said that.

After '79, that is what you said.

-I never said that!

-You are wrong again!

You are lying!

Rod Richards, what did Cameron mean yesterday

when he said that more power means more accountability?

Do you see a scenario maybe where the Government in London

will offer this place the power to vary taxes

but Carwyn Jones saying, "No, we don't want it."

That would suit David Cameron down to a tee

if the Assembly had to raise money through taxes,

income tax, or something similar.

On one hand, Carwyn Jones wouldn't want to see it happen

because there would be more accountability and responsibility

with tax raising policies.

Also, from David Cameron's point of view, he could sell that in England.

He could say, "Everything you read about what's happening in Wales,

"they have to pay for it themselves."

If that scenario does arise, Jon Owen Jones, what would Carwyn Jones say?

No thanks. I'll take the pocket money, but I don't want to raise it.

The big problem we've had since the start of the discussion

on devolution, is that Wales is relatively poor.

The area of England which has the biggest population is very rich.

What we need to do within the United Kingdom

is to distribute the money so that it reaches the people who need it.

But in order to do that,

you need the support of the area with the big population,

who will elect the MPs and keeping the balance is extremely difficult.

Scotland has several advantages over Wales.

The biggest advantage is that they can say, we've got money in the sea.

We've got oil, so we can afford do things.

Going back to 1997,

one of the things that was said about devolution

was that it would create a new confidence in Wales.

That this idea of everyone picking on Wales,

and those old, nasty Tories taking everything away,

that that would disappear.

But it seems to me that it hasn't happened.

There's a sign of victimhood in what all the parties are saying.

That is the great pity.

It could have happened if the Welsh Government, the Assembly Government,

during the last 12 years, had gone ahead and changed the things

that are genuinely and vitally important like education and health.

The difficult things. But they haven't done that.

As Carwyn announced yesterday,

they've stuck to things that are relatively simple to do.

They haven't done the difficult things

like reorganising local government.

Everyone said it needed to be reorganised,

but Carwyn hasn't done it.

Rod has a point there. I think confidence has increased.

But we've had over 10 years of devolution, we've had an opportunity

when there was enough public money available and money from Europe,

and what we haven't done is transform the economy

to the extent that we can deal with some of the issues ourselves.

And your leader was responsible for the economy for the last four years.

He spent most of that time sorting out the problems in that department

that had been managed by Labour for eight years.

There's a new scheme in place now.

If we can implement that scheme, we can transform the economy.

Is there an obsession here with process instead of results?

The process of devolution, the constitutional journey if you like.

Carwyn Jones yesterday talked about jobs

but you don't need legislation to tackle jobs.

He's been saying that for some years in one form or another.

But is there a problem, specifically with your party,

because you've been concentrating too much on the constitutional process?

You just accused us of not being clear enough

about what we want to do constitutionally.

Now you're saying we've concentrated on it too much.

But it's the process, whether it ends in independence or not,

it's the process you concentrate on, isn't it?

It's all about what will work,

what will deliver, what will make things better.

Although I agree with Jon about the fact that Wales is poor,

why is Wales still poor after receiving so much European money?

If we want to do things differently,

we have to reach the point where we can pay for it.

But we shouldn't do things differently just to be different.

-No, you're right.

-And we have done that.

We have to end it there. We've run out of time. Thank you.

That's it for tonight and for this series. Thanks for your company.

We'll be back in September when the politicians will also be back

after working hard over the holidays.

-Until then, enjoy your holidays and good night.

-Good night.