Wed, 21 Sep 2011 CF99

Hello and welcome to the Welsh Government building.

Tonight on CF99, a correct decision which wasn't easy.

That's what Clegg said about getting into bed with the Conservatives.

what effect will this have on the Welsh Liberal Democrats?

As the Assembly Members settle back in the Chamber,

what makes an effective Opposition party?

Co-operation or attack?

Three guests having their say tonight are:

Aled Roberts AM from the Liberal Democrats,

Elin Jones AM of Plaid Cymru

and former Conservative Minister Rod Richards.

Welcome to you all.

Nick Clegg's message to party supporters in Birmingham today

was that the pain would be worth it in the end.

He said the road would be difficult but the correct one.

There would be no change in direction.

Kirsty Williams has said that there were lessons to be learned

from the One Wales coalition.

She said the party must make it clear it is making a difference.

Elliw Gwawr reports from the conference.

Difficult times for the Liberal Democrats.

Their faces say it all.

They were punished in last May's election for co-operating

with the Conservatives.

They had heavy losses in Scotland and England.

Then they lost the alternative vote referendum.

This has been a difficult year for the party

but the atmosphere at the conference is very positive.

If anyone was in doubt over what the fate of the party would be,

this was Nick Clegg's message to them earlier today.

We put aside party differences for the sake of the national interest.

People before politics, nation before party.

Let me tell you this:

You don't play politics at a time of national crisis.

You don't play politics with the economy

and you never ever play politics with people's jobs.

It's true that the Liberal Democrats have faced

worse problems in their history and survived them.

For the party in Wales, the challenge is more urgent

as they face another electoral challenge next May.

How should they go about avoiding what some predict will be a beating?

I have been a member of the Liberal and Lib Dem parties for years.

I remember much worse times than this.

I remember getting one percentage point in an opinion poll.

I can remember the Jeremy Thorpe scandal.

Liberalism isn't a temporary thing, it is a deep-rooted ideology

and it is at the hearts of people in Wales.

People can see that this party has belief.

When you are in a coalition, sometimes you have to compromise.

That doesn't please us or the voters.

We had some very bad results in May,

but in my constituency it was quite positive.

People know how strong the party is in my constituency.

Next year, voters will look at what people have to offer locally

for the council elections.

People won't be looking at the wider British issues as much.

The reaction on people's doorsteps has been positive.

People can see that what we do is making a difference in their lives.

We will see next May whether or not this is a temporary problem

or whether it is a sign of a serious drop in support for the party.

Aled Roberts, the truth is that a beating is on the cards.

Things may have improved by the next general election.

But the next year is going to be very difficult.

It will be difficult

but I'm sure you predicted that ahead of the Assembly elections.

We must accept responsibility. We're part of a coalition.

The party voted in favour of that.

There are difficult decisions being made in Westminster.

But I think our record,

especially in the County Councils, is a very strong one.

We have to show the electorate what we have done in their area.

Looking at the party's history in the last 20 years or so,

you have been moving forward ward by ward

and you have been winning wards and leading councils gradually.

A lot of that is long-term and slow growth

and a lot of that has been lost?

No, the work that we have put in is long-term.

We can look at the individual records of those councillors.

I believe results in Wales will be better than you anticipate.

Elin Jones, Nick Clegg has tried to put

some clear yellow water between them and the Tories.

You did the same as the little brother in the coalition.

Kirsty Williams said lessons can be learned from the coalition in Wales.

She said the smaller party has to trumpet its achievements.

Is that possible in coalition?

Can you differentiate?

Plaid Cymru tried to do it during the election

but we didn't do it well enough.

We achieved so much in our period in Government.

It was important for Plaid Cymru and Wales.

We held the referendum on further powers in Wales.

That was one of the main goals we had in mind.

If we look at the reasons the Lib Dems went into coalition,

for example, the AV referendum, they lost that.

They can't take anything out of that.

When you share power, can you see now

whether there was wisdom in attacking the bigger brother?

Plaid Cymru and the Labour Party in Wales did fight the election

over our individual records and what we wanted to achieve.

Plaid Cymru didn't do that successfully enough.

But we did achieve a lot of what we wanted to do during that time.

We look back on it with pride.

I'm not sure whether the Liberal Democrats will be able to look back

with pride on tuition fees and the AV referendum and so on.

Is the problem, especially for the Welsh Liberal Democrats,

that many things the Liberal Democrats are taking credit for

are things that are only taking place in England?

Perhaps all we can see that we get from the Liberal Democrats

in Westminster is cuts in spending?

I don't think they will be able to differentiate their fate

from what is going to happen in Westminster.

Listening to Nick Clegg and Kirsty Williams today,

you can tell Kirsty Williams isn't a fan of the coalition,

but it is there.

Their speeches have been quite similar in several ways.

They are trained to defend being in a Coalition Government.

Then they are trying to look at the party's contribution

towards Government policies.

Difficult decisions need to be made and, at the end of the day,

the price is winning the election.

That is the case, if the policy works.

If you look at the IMF, they have been saying that

all the measures we have taken to save the country aren't working.

Nick Clegg and Vince Cable are trying to forecast

whether these measures will work in the long-term.

That is how they sold the policies.

What if they're right about what they said before the election

as opposed to what they have been saying now that this is a mistake?

That is political opinion.

We will see in time whether they made the right decision.

These measures are affecting people in Wales

such as changes to income tax.

It is difficult for a minority party in any coalition.

What is important is that the minority party

accepts responsibility for the difficult decisions

and I think Plaid Cymru tried to avoid that.

Every Government is a coalition.

If you look back over the last 30 years,

you had Brownites and Blairites.

We had pro Europe and anti Europe with John Major.

There are always two sides to it.

The Liberals don't have experience of being in Government

and then in a fractured Cabinet.

It was predicted that Nick Clegg would face a difficult time.

Nick Clegg said that people hadn't turned on their leader

when he was on stage.

They haven't turned on him, the party is behind him.

I think several people have been making speeches

which may be considered as setting things up

for when Nick Clegg may not be in such a strong position.

But he was speaking to the Liberal Democrats today.

If I can return to the point on whether the Liberal Democrats

and Tories have got it right in terms of their economic policy,

there is now independent evidence from the IMF which shows

British economic growth is lower

than that which Vince Cable predicted.

There is a basic weakness in the economy.

At the moment, the injection of public investment isn't working.

It isn't coming from the Government in Westminster

and that endangers our economic status according to the IMF.

Last week's IMF report said that they were more confident

in Britain's economic policies

compared to other Western European countries.

-Germany? I don't think so.

-That's what the report said.

The evenings are closing in and the politicians are back in Cardiff Bay.

The opposition could have a number of opportunities

to have a bash at the Government.

Will they? Carl Roberts reports.

Autumn, a time to light a fire and play conkers.

As the leaves are falling,

the Government will announce a legislative programme

and try to gain support for its budget.

There are a number of political games of conkers on the horizon.

Five years ago, Rhodri Government had a tough time gaining support.

The opposition parties threatened to form a coalition at the time.

The Government is expected to announce a draft report

within a fortnight.

But will the opposition parties work together with them?

I don't see these politicians working together for several years.

I think the Conservatives have quite a right-wing leader

and Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats

are trying to position themselves as left of centre-left parties.

I don't think it will be easy for them to co-operate.

But don't politicians have a responsibility to work together?

To me, what matters is patients, not the figures.

We should start talking about patience and the services

which are available and the ones which may disappear.

I don't think it is a problem

that the Government doesn't have a majority.

The other parties might be able to unite

in order to get policies through.

At the same time, where things may not fit

into the Government's agenda, that is where it is important

that the other parties should work together despite their differences.

The Government will be able to use full legislative powers

for the first time within a few months

and the Government will set out what they wish to achieve.

Once the political argument is out of the way,

I think all parties will have an influence on legislation.

There's nothing partisan in the legislation, some say it's anadine.

When you play conkers, the idea is to break the other person's weapon.

Although everyone might not agree, politics isn't a game.

You are back in opposition.

Has your experience of being in power changed the way

you now operate on the opposition benches?

I don't think so.

In Government, we wanted to do what was best for the people of Wales

and that is what we will do as an opposition party.

I don't foresee there will be a time

when opposition parties will work together officially.

There will be occasions when we are united against the Government

and other times when we aren't.

But you have seen the other side of the fence.

Do you now know where to attack Carwyn Jones?

Will you behave differently?

I could see Carwyn Jones' weaknesses in Government

and I can see them outside Government.

I think he has a lack of dynamism, inspiration and passion

to deliver for Wales.

Since we returned to the Assembly after the election,

we've seen that he hasn't looked pragmatically

at devolving important powers that are important to Wales,

powers in areas such as broadcasting and energy.

We are anxious to see those decisions being made.

Carwyn often prefers to see Tory or Lib Dem ministers

in Westminster with these powers.

What is the most effective way to behave?

There are two issues here.

I will return to Plaid Cymru soon

because that side will be very interesting over the coming months

for various reasons.

From a Tory standpoint, it is important they hunt in packs.

All of the members know exactly what the leader is aiming for.

When they come into the Senedd, everybody brings their question.

At the moment, people aren't listening to what's being said.

They just want to have their voices heard.

It is important that the Tories listen to the answers.

If Carwyn Jones says something, and they spot an opportunity,

they should drop their question and go after it.

For Plaid Cymru, it will all be about the sideshow.

They will have leadership candidates asking questions.

You will have someone like Dafydd Elis Thomas,

who wants to be part of the government,

he'll be asking questions to suit that.

You will have others who are looking to go after independence.

Elin Jones and her supporters will be asking questions

that go along that route.

It is almost inevitable that this Government will lose a few votes.

They could've lost one on maternity services this week.

The Government has to prepare a Budget.

It can't afford to lose that vote.

Will it be possible to get consensus between two or three parties?

Or do you think there will be such a big difference of opinion

that Labour will find it very difficult?

It depends what attitude the Labour Party take.

I think they could reach consensus if they discuss with other parties.

I won't set out to oppose them, and neither will Plaid Cymru,

but if Labour are hard-headed

and they pursue their own manifesto agenda without discussion,

they can expect opposition.

I sensed that I could see some kind of shopping lists.

It was interesting to see Ieuan Wyn Jones

mentioning the need to increase spending on economic development

because of the economic downturn.

Perhaps the Liberal Democrats would choose education.

There are areas in which they could secure support.

And the Labour Party is aware of its own situation.

They will have to respond to one party or another

to get their budget through.

I have been in coalition with Labour and the Tories in Wrexham

before now and this is the political situation we are in at the Senedd.

Elin, is there a danger that you as a party will be naval gazing

rather than attacking?

You will be holding a leadership race,

you yourself are a candidate,

and that will be a distraction for your party?

Assembly Members such as myself have day-to-day jobs to do.

Mine is to be in opposition and to challenge the Government.

I have decided to take on a second job

and become a candidate for the leadership race.

That will take place outside all of this.

It's clear that Plaid Cymru has a leader for the time being

and the work that Ieuan has been doing,

challenging Carwyn Jones on the Budget and devolution,

he has been leading that debate.

Our current leader will continue in that job

until the new leader is appointed in March,

whoever he or she may be.

Rod Richards, you have described the Senedd before now

as a pussycat parlour.

Pussycat parlour.

That there wasn't enough confrontation at the Assembly.

Is ding-dong politics what people actually want to hear?

Or is there an appetite for consensus politics?

There is a world of difference between confrontational politics

and ding-dong politics.

We have had too much consensus here and there hasn't been

a realistic opposition to the Labour Government or the coalition

for 12 years,

and that is one of the Assembly's biggest issues.

In my opinion, that is why the Assembly hasn't delivered.

There are plenty of opportunities for the opposition parties

to raise issues over our disgraceful public services.

Allow me to raise a point over one thing that could

change the dynamics here after the election.

If the Westminster coalition Government

decided to change the electoral system here,

they could reduce the number of constituency members to 30

and 30 regional list members, possibly national list.

There seems to have been a lot of talk about that.

-Do you expect that to happen?

-I'm not aware of that talk, no.

We haven't heard anything within our party.

I'm not sure whether they, whoever they are,

will be able to achieve that before the next Assembly election.

There will be practical considerations

for the different parties,

considering here are 30 electoral regions in Westminster

and 40 in the Assembly and they have different boundaries.

I think we will need to look at national lists

rather than regional ones.

I think it's a chance for us to look at that.

We would have to consider the whole picture.

It's more naval gazing and it won't make any difference to this place.

Thank you all for joining us.

There will be plenty to discuss over the coming weeks.

That's all from CF99 tonight.

We will be back at 10.00pm next week.

I hope you will join us then.

-Until then, goodnight.

-Goodnight.

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