02/05/2012 CF99

Hello and welcome here to the Senedd on the eve of the local elections.

Have you decided which way to vote tomorrow?

Or maybe you've had enough of politicians and intend to stay away.

Tonight, a final opportunity to go through what all four parties are offering

and for you to decide who deserves your cross and why.

We're joined by four hopeful candidates.

Sara Evans-Fear from Plaid Cymru. Huw Thomas from Labour.

The Liberal Democrat, Elgan Morgan.

And Oliver Owen from the Conservatives. Welcome to you all.

The weather forecast for tomorrow is wet and windy

but what about the hopes of the parties in the local elections?

James Williams has been looking back at the campaign

and looking ahead at what shape the parties will be in

by the end of the counting on Friday.

Carmarthen County Council is one of the largest councils in Wales.

Tomorrow, voters will have the opportunity to vote councillors,

not only into this chamber, but into chambers across Wales,

apart from Anglesey.

For the next five years, these are the people who will run many of the services we depend on daily.

The political climate has changed since the last local elections

and the four main parties have been trying to persuade voters

that they should run those services.

These local elections will be a big test

for the main parties for different reasons.

But who will be celebrating by the weekend?

I'm expecting a very good night for the Welsh Labour Party.

The opinion polls are looking very favourable for them

in Wales at the moment.

They're looking promising throughout Britain, but especially in Wales.

You also have to remember that the Labour Party

had a poor night the last time these elections were held.

2008 was a low point for the Labour Party.

So if you combine the fact that they started from a low point,

and the fact that the opinion polls are very favourable,

I expect them to win dozens of seats.

150 seats, maybe.

Since the Budget, it's been a difficult time for the Westminster Government.

An omni-shambles even.

And some say that could affect the performance

of the coalition parties.

If the elections had taken place two months ago,

I think the Tories and the Liberals may have done better

than they will do now.

The Budget is being blamed for a lot of things,

but it's not the budget as such that's the problem.

The problem is the fact that neither the Government or its ministers

have explained why they have reached the decisions

that are in the Budget.

If the Liberal Democrats stay where they are in Wales, that will be a miracle.

It is just not going to happen.

They have 25% fewer candidates in Wales this time around.

They don't have candidates in some of the seats that they hold at the moment.

So they have no hope of remaining where they are.

The question is, how badly will they do?

And what about Plaid Cymru?

They have a new leader, but what about a new beginning?

It's important for Plaid Cymru.

The results will be important with regard to the hopes

and expectations people have for the new leader.

If Plaid Cymru doesn't benefit and do relatively well

compared to last time, it shows a thumbs down to Leanne Wood.

If they have a disappointing night, which is a strong possibility, I think,

people outside Plaid Cymru will start pointing the finger

and use that as a stick to hit her with.

Of course, the results are important to all the parties

and the time to argue their case is running out.

Huw, there are local issues and we'll discuss those in a minute.

There are local patterns with regard to voting as well.

But it would be disappointing

if Labour didn't do very well tomorrow in the context that exists.

We're confident of having a good night to be honest

because as Richard Wyn Jones said, 2008 was a difficult year.

But now, we've fought a positive campaign.

Every local Labour council has a local manifesto and local promises

instead of having a one size fits all approach.

You say that, and there are local manifestoes,

but the consistent message from Peter Hain and Carwyn Jones is,

this is your opportunity to send a message to Westminster.

This is your opportunity to tell David Cameron and Nick Clegg what you think.

That suggests that it's they who are unpopular, rather than you who are popular.

The point is, the people of Wales are suffering

because of the most right wing government

we've seen for a generation.

That's having a real negative effect on the people of Wales.

I think it's perfectly right to say that this is an opportunity

to send a message to Westminster and say that the people would prefer

to see Labour government because they expect the cuts to be slowed down.

Elgan Morgan, if Labour get the main headlines on Friday morning,

the other main story is likely to be

how much of a hammering you've had as a party.

What do you expect?

I expect us to do better than everyone expects.

We'll talk later about local things,

but what people are often telling us is that they like the work

that Liberal Democrat councillors do locally in their communities.

We have to remember that this is a council election.

You're not offering an option for many people in Wales.

You have 25% fewer candidates this time.

What about your supporters who want to vote for you,

but there's nobody standing?

All the parties are finding it difficult to find candidates.

But every other party have increased their candidates.

But not one party puts candidates forward

in every seat in the country.

There are some seats where nobody puts anyone forward.

The important thing is that the Liberal Democrat councillors

work hard for the communities.

Oliver, James used that lovely word,

it might be a terrible word for a Tory, "omni-shambles".

How does that feel as a candidate?

You're out there, working hard, you've prepared your leaflets,

and then you see all this stuff on pasty tax, granny tax,

Jeremy Hunt and so on.

Does that dishearten you?

Being on the doorstep lifts your hopes.

People see us as local people who live in their communities.

They know we work hard for them

and we want to change things and work on their behalf.

But national politics does have an effect, doesn't it?

We saw that four years ago.

What I would say is that our traditional and ardent supporters

have faith in us at the moment.

They're still voting for us. I am completely sure about that.

Sara Evans-Fear, Leanne Wood has made it clear that this isn't about her.

She hasn't been in the job for very long.

And yet, if she doesn't break through

in places like your patch in the valleys

and where she comes from, that's a problem, isn't it?

I don't think so. I don't agree with you there.

Leanne has only been in the job for eight weeks, as you said.

I think we're breaking new ground here

with a prominent leader like Leanne, who has new and strong ideas.

I think it's an opportunity for us as a party to grow.

I don't think it'll be a criticism of her. As Elgan said, this...

But you have to break through more in the valleys

as a result of her appointment.

Yes, I would hope so, especially in the Rhondda

because that's where Leanne is from.

Of course, I would hope that would have an effect

because the effect on the doorstep has been very positive.

Oliver, let me come to you.

We saw this interesting poll. Marks out of 10 for all the leaders.

Carwyn Jones was at the top, Nick Clegg was at the bottom.

Leanne Wood was second.

But Andrew R.T. Davies is almost as unpopular as Nick Clegg.

Does that worry you?

I don't see that on the doorstep.

Nobody has talked about the Assembly during these local elections.

What I would say to Sara is that maybe Leanne Wood is not as popular

in some of the areas that I canvas in

as maybe she is in the valleys.

Maybe she's not.

If you're talking about the Queen's visit

to the cathedral in Llandaff last week,

Leanne Wood did not want to go,

and it was a point that was raised a lot.

Is it a point that's been raised?

It's been raised, but my response and what I say to people

is that there is a lot of cynicism in politics at the moment.

A lot of politicians say one thing

and do something completely different.

I think there's also a lot of respect towards Leanne

because she has this strong opinion about things like the Royal family.

She's republican of course, and she sticks to her opinion.

A lot of people respect her for that

and people can see both sides of the debate.

Huw Thomas, Carwyn Jones came out on top of that poll Vaughan referred to,

but what about Ed Miliband?

He's not an asset on the doorstep, is he?

Of course he is.

Ed was in Merthyr Tydfil recently and he had a great reception.

I think people recognise that he is a genuine man

and when they talk to him, they find him to be

an extremely intelligent man who knows all the facts thoroughly.

It is possible that the Labour Party will do better in Wales

than in the rest of Britain, and yet, this omni-shambles suggests

that Ed Miliband should be doing better.

Labour will do well in Wales

because Labour is the natural party of Wales.

But I think Labour will do well in England as well

because people will realise, not just with the omni-shambles,

but how much they're suffering from not having a Labour government.

Elgan, let me raise a point with you.

In the last elections,

there were only four councils where one party won over half the seats.

Two for Labour and two for the Conservatives.

Deals will be needed again this time around.

How are you going to deal with Oliver's party,

taking into account that you are in a coalition in Westminster

and is it possible for you to deal with Huw's party after the elections

when cabinets need to be formed in the councils?

One thing that happened four years ago

was that different groups from parties came together,

depending on what part of the country they were in.

I think that will have to happen again.

Local councillors will have to make these decisions for themselves.

From my point of view, I would never say,

we have to work with this party or we won't work with that party.

Like here and like in Westminster, it depends on the numbers.

But when you are sitting there in City Hall, are you thinking,

well, we're not going to win a majority

and working with Plaid Cymru may not give us a majority.

So who would appeal most to you? Mr Owen there, or Mr Thomas here?

We'd have to talk to all three parties

and any independents that have been elected

to see who would be willing to work with us

and who we'd be willing to work with.

Sera, as a representative of a party which is not in power here or in Westminster,

if people do decide to use the local elections as a protest vote,

you should attract a lot of votes

as the only party in Wales which is not in power.

Do you see that happening?

We're very positive about tomorrow and the results.

We feel we did very well in 2008

and there is scope for us to build on that success.

As you've said,

I think the fact that we're not in power is going to be positive.

-Does it help on the doorstep?

-I think it does.

Because you can kick everybody.

People are turning to us to see

if we have something more positive to offer, and we have.

We discussed this question with Elgan.

Do you share your leader's opinion

about not doing any deals with the Conservatives?

Yes, I share Leanne's opinion there.

But of course, you have to remember what Leanne said.

She said that in order to build our communities

and in order to build stronger communities

and concentrate on the important things in local areas, like the economy,

we should look to work in informal coalitions

with parties that have prominent policies.

We have not seen much of that so far.

Huw, this is your problem, isn't it?

In a lot of councils, there are a lot of places where you have to win control, win over half,

because coalitions are difficult for you.

Your party refuses to work with the Conservatives

and there's not much love lost between you and the Liberal Democrats.

That's true.

It's important to remember that the Tories

are the second largest party in Wales.

So what we have in Newport, what we have in Swansea

and maybe, unfortunately, what we could have in Cardiff

is a coalition between the Tories and the Liberal Democrats,

like we have in England.

I know that a lot of people don't want that.

Oliver, would you be willing to work with anyone?

We're keeping every door open at the moment.

What I would say is that we don't take any votes for granted.

We'd never say we are the country's natural party, like Labour do.

We work hard for everybody.

Thank you very much.

For those voters who are faithful to a party,

deciding who to support in an election can be easy.

But for others, it is an interesting choice.

This week, a group of people got together in Caerphilly

to take part on Radio Cymru's 'Hawl i Holi' programme.

We went over to ask some members of the audience

which issues were important to them.

Education, mainly. Social services as well.

Transport and economic development.

In county council elections, I think the area is important

and then there are local matters that are important to me.

Things like facilities in the area, facilities for the youth.

Education at the county level is very important.

But on the other hand, I think the national picture counts as well.

I will be interested to see the results

to see how the different parties have done.

Without a doubt, unemployment, especially among young people.

That's the most important issue in my mind.

I hope people will send a clear message to Westminster.

We're not pleased with what's happening at the moment.

Local factors should persuade people who to vote for.

In Pembrokeshire, they're almost all independent.

They vote for the person down there and not the party.

Maybe the local candidate there is very important.

There are counties with many independent candidates

and in that case, people go for them personally.

So maybe, at a county level, you think about the individual.

You don't always agree with his party but you admire him,

and support some of the things he does and says at a county level.

The opinion from Caerphilly.

Elgan Morgan, what does come up on the doorstep?

What's the main issue that comes up time and time again?

Local issues.

People are very clear that they want somebody to represent them

on the county council.

Last year, in the Assembly elections,

Westminster came up very often.

-This year, I've not heard half as much about it.

-What? Education?

Education. Everything from education and jobs

to the pothole at the bottom of the road.

-And you promise the world to them all.

-Pardon?

-You promise to fix everything for everyone.

-We try!

We'll sort the local things.

At a city level, we've raised the money that will go to our schools

and we try and work to bring more jobs to the city.

Are you kicked because you are the party in power in Cardiff?

-No.

-That makes it difficult to promise things, doesn't it?

Not really.

People can see that their communities and the city

has changed a lot in the last eight years.

Huw, what do you hear on the doorstep?

The same issues, or is there something different?

A combination of local issues,

very often micro-local, and national issues as well.

Very often, we hear that people are tired of their local council here in Cardiff,

that it doesn't listen to them and does what it likes.

That comes over time and time again.

A dozen people came up to me this afternoon and said,

the sooner you get rid of those people in Westminster the better.

So I think there's a combination of both to be honest.

What's the main local issue? Education? Planning? What?

Here in Cardiff, there is a lack of housing

which has been made worse by the lack of LDP we have here.

Housing comes up very often.

The fact that the bus station has been knocked down

with no plans in place for a new one comes up often.

And local issues like potholes and dog mess as well.

-Dog mess.

-Dog mess always comes up.

-Oliver, does Cameron come up? Osborne? The Budget?

-Not very often.

What comes up most often with us

is the state of the roads and pavements.

They're awful in our area so that comes up time and time again.

But are people saying, it's your Government in Westminster,

because of your cuts,

that's affecting how much money the council has to spend?

Not at all. They tell us that their current councillors

aren't responding to their problems.

That's what they're worried about.

It's all about this blame game.

If somebody is unhappy, for example with the local primary school,

who do they blame for that?

The council? The Government here? The Government in Westminster?

I think they look locally.

Of course, they go to their local councillor first

and if not much is done about it,

they can blame the fact that the council hasn't taken action.

With regard to the issues I'm hearing about on the doorstep,

it's about protecting local facilities.

For example, a swimming pool has been closed in the Rhondda.

A lot of people are also very unhappy

that their working terms and conditions have been cut and changed

under the current local government that we have,

without any consultation and discussion

with the workers themselves.

The one that stands out to me is,

I would have expected after the PISA figures and so on,

that you'd all say that people are worried

about the education of their children.

But it doesn't seem that that stands out.

There are schools in Cardiff

where a very low percentage of children succeed. That's true.

But that's not true in my area

so I can't say that it does come up on the doorstep.

Maybe it does in some areas, I'm not sure.

But are people differentiating between the curriculum

that comes from here and the standards,

and the buildings and the restructuring

that comes from councillors?

In Cardiff, the Liberal Democrats

have increased the amount of money that goes to every school.

We're the second best placed in Wales,

considering the average of every child.

People know that we as a council put a lot of work into education.

But people are worried about education in Wales

in general, aren't they?

Of course.

People think the curriculum is something for the whole of Wales,

but the condition of buildings

and how the school works from day to day is more local.

But certainly, education is important for the people of Wales.

It is always an important issue.

With regard to the Welshness of the British parties, if you like,

Nick Bourne was very careful to make the party more Welsh

and to create that clear blue water.

Andrew R.T. Davies, to a lesser extent maybe.

On the doorstep, are you emphasising the Britishness of your party

or the Welshness of your party?

People meet us and we let them make their own decision.

I speak to many people on the doorstep in Welsh

and they see that we are people from Wales.

Many of us are Welsh speakers. So it doesn't come up.

Huw, I know you haven't talked about education

and if you want to talk about that, feel free to do so.

But you used the term, the 'natural party of Wales'

when you talked about the Labour Party earlier on.

At the start of the campaign, I interviewed Peter Hain

and he said it was important Labour didn't go back to the old days

where they took people for granted

and the council could just tell people what to do.

Labour should remember the lessons of the last 10 years.

Is there a danger that you are forgetting that?

No, I disagree. That's what happened in 2008, possibly, to some extent.

Maybe we took those votes for granted

and we paid the price for it.

I think there's a new generation growing now within Labour Party

that realises that you've got to work

and talk to people on the doorstep.

But just saying, "We're the natural party of Wales", sounds a little arrogant, doesn't it?

What I mean by that is that only Labour can represent people

across the whole of Wales.

We're the only party that seriously competes across Wales.

I don't think any other party can say that, apart from Labour.

On education, the Labour Assembly Government

is going to invest more in buildings

than any other system since devolution.

So we're investing in education.

We're spending on buildings

and standards within the curriculum itself.

Sara, a word on one of your main issues as a party - independence.

Does something like that come up,

especially following the appointment of Leanne?

Is independence something that comes up?

-No, that hasn't come up on the doorstep.

-Do you raise it?

Sometimes.

I raise it sometimes to find out the general opinion about it

but to be honest, this is a local election

so local issues like the bus stop down the road or dog mess,

things like that are very emotive issues the people.

That's what they focus on in these elections

and that's the right thing for them to do.

We only have around a minute left.

two of you are re-standing

and two of you are standing for the first time.

How important is it for you to get your faces seen?

Is the personality of a candidate important these days?

I think it is to some extent.

People know the name and see the name on the ballot card

and vote that way.

But I think people tend to know what a party stands for

and I still think that people vote for their party.

-Is the personality important?

-I think it is all-important.

If you have a good record of making sure that you can get things done within the ward,

within the local area, I think that goes in your favour.

-Elgan, the same question?

-I agree with Sera.

What people are looking for are councillors from any party

that will work for their communities.

-The last word to Oliver.

-It is all-important.

People are fed up of leaflets, they've had a lot of them,

and they want to know who will represent them.

Good luck to you all. That's it for tonight.

Vaughan will be keeping Dewi Llwyd company tomorrow night

on Radio Cymru at 11:30pm

on the results programme of the local elections.

We'll be back at 9:30pm next Wednesday night.

-Good night.

-Good night.