11/07/2012 CF99

Hello and welcome to half an hour of politics chat.

Tonight, the row about the report on health service reforms.

What does it mean for the credibility of the report and the minister?

And as dairy farmers protest in Westminster, figures show that

almost a third have left the industry in Wales in the last five years.

Here to discuss these matters are Llyr Roberts

of the Cardiff Business School, Assembly Member and Plaid Cymru's

health spokesperson, Elin Jones and the Labour councillor Huw Thomas.

Welcome, all three of you.

The pressure on the health minister is increasing as the row

continues over the credibility of a controversial report

on health service reform in Wales.

Opposition parties say the report by Professor Marcus Longley can

no longer be described as independent after emails have emerged,

linked to government ministers, asking for advice

and assistance on how to put the report together.

Professor Longley and the Welsh Government

insist the report remains independent.

Elliw Gwawr reports.

Government changes to the health service are highly controversial.

People are naturally set against changes to services

in their area but in recent years, we've seen many protests

here on the steps of the Senedd against local hospital closures.

The independent report

was meant to present impartial clinical evidence.

It would persuade politicians and the public that they were

making the right decisions for the right reasons.

Here's what Professor Marcus Longley had to say on the

Glamorgan University blog after the report was published in May.

"In order to introduce evidence to this argument,

"we were commissioned by the Health Service in Wales to collect

"and review evidence on the standard of care in our hospitals,

"the state of the workplace and access to care in our hospitals

"and then come to a conclusion supported

"by the evidence on the best model for the hospital model in Wales."

But the results of the report were controversial.

"We can be relatively sure that many services

(particularly in trauma, general emergency care,

"some aspects of stroke care, specialist operations)

"are clearly far from being of the highest standard

"and it would be reasonable to conclude

"that people suffer from disability and even death as a result of this."

But the emails between Professor Longley

and civil servants show that he had asked for key facts

to support the argument in favour of reform,

and opposition parties say he has undermined

the independence of his report.

It's clear that the government has been holding talks.

If the health minister knew about this,

it's clear she'll have to step down

because this report isn't independent.

If she didn't know about these communications,

it's clear that she doesn't know

what's going on in her own department.

And in an unusual step, we understand that opposition leaders

have met to discuss how to deal with this row.

Kirsty Williams first went downstairs do meet with

Leanne Wood of Plaid Cymru, before going down the corridor

to the Conservative leader, Andrew RT Davies.

This was the minister's response to the claims in the chamber yesterday.

This is a blatant political attack that seeks to undermine my leadership

of the NHS in Wales at the expense of the hard-earned reputations

of two people who have done nothing

but work hard to improve the NHS in Wales.

But despite the Government's efforts,

pressure is mounting on the Health Secretary,

with the British Medical Association saying that the report is a cynical

attempt to influence the opinion of health workers and the public.

Opposition parties are now working together to table

a vote of no confidence in the minister next week.

Her position at the moment is untenable.

That's why the three party leaders have taken this serious step.

They haven't made the decision lightly.

They've considered the matter

and I think it's testament to the severity of the situation.

But for most people receiving care through the health service,

it's the impact on services that matters, not the political upheaval.

Elin Jones, a simple question. Why a vote of no confidence?

The minister had the opportunity yesterday to defend

why she thought that she could present the report

as an independent document when,

as is evident from the emails that have emerged,

that the report was not politically independent

because of the communications

ab out the content of the report that had gone on between

her ministers and the report's author and even editorial advice

for the report's author by the health minister's officials.

The minister then chose on the 9th of May

to present the report as an independent one.

And it's clear to us that wasn't true.

And her defence yesterday was not sufficient.

But why a vote of no confidence?

You're not likely to win and even if you were to win,

it wouldn't mean anything.

Why use that particular tool?

I remember when this place started up.

I remember this happening time after time to Christine Gwyther.

It made no difference. So why resurrect this old, pointless tactic?

We're taking this matter seriously. It is a very important matter.

It has driven an ordinary Assembly Member like me to support,

at the moment, a vote of no confidence in the health minister.

We haven't taken this step lightly.

The changes on the horizon that are being introduced in hospitals

across Wales are far-reaching.

The health minister is spearheading those changes

so they need to be a credible person to make those decisions.

At the moment, she has mislead the beginning of that

discussion by presenting this report as independent

and that report, or she had hoped that the report

would be central to legitimising these changes to the health service.

Huw Thomas, why don't we look at the content of these e-mails.

It's one thing to ask for facts,

and many people acknowledge that Marcus Longley had to ask

the government for information as they store that information.

But he also asked for assistance on how to introduce that evidence.

Was that taking it too far?

I disagree. I think the other parties have overreacted.

The e-mails ask for advice on a draft of the report.

But why ask the government for advice?

-He was asking for their response.

-Why?

Because they're professionals and they're part of the government.

But the government didn't commission this report.

Why ask the government's advice on a report

that was supposed to be independent?

The report is independent. That's the truth of the matter.

If you ask people who work in the health service for information,

it's reasonable to also ask their opinion.

You suggested then, Llyr, that there had been an overreaction.

Have all sides overreacted to an extent?

That is, in conversation with Bethan, Darren Millar said

all sorts of big things not only about the government

but also Marcus Longley and then Labour reacted fiercely.

-Does everybody just need to calm down?

-That's how I feel.

This is such a sensitive topic for the people of Wales.

People are really concerned about these changes.

The public is genuinely worried about what's happening

to their local services.

I'm worried that this row has spiralled out of control,

that Darren Millar has overreacted and the government's had to

respond in kind at the Assembly on Tuesday morning.

And then I think this motion of no confidence is a step too far

and is a nuclear weapon that shouldn't be used so early on.

What about the credibility of the report?

Not the minister's credibility but that of the report?

Is it central to these reforms?

I don't see that there's anything wrong

with what the civil servants have done here.

I don't see that they've done anything wrong,

trying to influence Marcus Longley's report.

That's their job, to try to get a better spin on this report.

There are issues in how some people have tried to frame this report

as independent and also maybe with some of Marcus Longley's e-mails.

Personally, I wouldn't have written them in such a chummy way.

I would have been worried that it could bring my academic

independence into question.

Elin Jones, when you were minister you weren't privy

to every communication that came out of your office.

Do you think Leslie Griffiths should have been

aware of the contents of all of these emails?

Was it like that for you as minister?

No and no I don't expect Leslie Griffiths

to be aware of the contents of every e-mail her officials write.

Of course, it is those same officials

that would have cleared the written confirmation

that Leslie Griffiths signed on May 9th

when she presented the report as independent of government.

Those same officials knew full well that they had discussed

the contents of that report with the author

and in that statement on May 9th, the government and the public,

who are concerned about the future of their hospitals

and want to know that there's a credible person leading

the hospital reform programme in Wales, were mislead.

That is where the blame lies.

That's why I accept the point that Llyr made that perhaps

we are rushing into a vote of no confidence

but as for the next step in this process,

what I want to see is the health committee on Wednesday morning

scrutinise the minister again, to give her another opportunity

to appear before us and I hope tomorrow,

we can establish that the health minister will be called

to the health committee on Wednesday morning.

Could that lead to a withdrawal of the vote of no confidence?

It's up to the health minister to present her case.

She will then have another opportunity to persuade

Assembly Members that she is worthy of the Assembly's trust

so she'll have two opportunities.

Huw Thomas, reading between the lines of what Elin has said,

it appears to me that opposition parties are withdrawing somewhat.

Isn't it true that such difficult decisions are being

made in the health service that some kind of consensus is necessary,

at least in terms of the starting point, what are the facts?

Then that debate can be held to convince the public

that these changes are beneficial.

It's certainly true to say that the health service needs reforming.

The situation in medicine is changing from day-to-day.

We need a service that can look after

the people of Wales in this day and age.

That's the significance of the report,

to look at why we need that change.

The Labour Party is trying to get in with the job in hand

and that's what we're going to do.

Elin talks about looking at the matter as a committee.

OK, we can do that but that will take up time that could be

spent on getting on with reforming the health service.

The other parties are welcome to play end-of-term politics

if that's what they want to do.

That's the problem we've got.

As elected representatives we are not playing at politics

when we discuss the future of the health service.

In this context I'm the Ceredigion AM

and I will be discussing the future of Bronglais Hospital,

where a mental health ward has closed overnight.

Llyr.

There are questions to be asked here

and the right place to do that is the Assembly's investigative

committee next week and I hope the minister does appear before it

just to get everything out in the open because that's the correct

process and I think the vote of no confidence is an inappropriate step.

Thank you.

Almost a third of dairy farms have disappeared in the last five

years, according to government figures.

Unsustainable pricing is to blame for the difficulties

in the industry according to farming unions.

Some of the largest milk processors have recently threatened to

cut prices one again in August.

Hundreds of Welsh farmers turned up in Westminster today to press

the government to take action on behalf of the industry.

James Williams reports.

It's milking time on Wyn Davies' farm near Fishguard,

where the family have been farming for generations.

Many things have changed in that time,

including the price of the milk they produce.

We've got three main milk buyers; Dairy Crest, Wiseman and Arla.

They are competing for a slice of the market

and the only way they do that is by cutting the price

and that's what's caused the situation we're in now.

There is a future in the industry but I don't know

whether this generation will see the country turn around.

When you step back and think that a bottle of water costs more

than a bottle of milk, something's gone wrong.

Many in the industry believe the contracts

between the farmers and processors are at the root of the problem.

Because of these contracts,

processors can cut their prices at short notice

while farmers are tied to these contracts for up to 18 months.

That is what has happened in this period.

The processing companies have cut their prices in June

and intend to do the same again on 1 August.

As a result, on average,

farmers would receive less than 25p per litre of milk

which costs more than 30p a litre to produce.

The regular practice of lower pricing means

many farmers have left the industry.

The number of farms in Wales has fallen

from just over 2,700 in 2006 to around 1,900 in 2011.

There are more than 75,000 fewer cows compared with five years ago.

It makes sense, according to some.

If you have a farm with 150 dairy cows

producing 1.5 million litres of milk,

a cut of 1p per litre amounts to £10,000.

It is quite a substantial hit.

Some have had 4p removed from the price of milk.

If we weren't making money before, we're going to make much less now.

They are not going to head into this winter to lose money,

to get up early in the morning and to work hard just to lose money.

That's not going to happen.

Today, Wyn Davies joined thousands of farmers from Wales and England

to voice their concerns

to the Westminster Agriculture Minister, Jim Paice.

He said he was close to an agreement

on a new voluntary code for milk contracts.

That is what the Welsh Government wants to see.

I haven't given up hope that there will be a practical code

for processors and farmers which will work.

That is something my officials here in Wales are working on

with DEFRA officials at the moment.

We've had conversations about it.

I'm confident we can reach an agreement on this at some point.

If not, we'll have to legislate. We don't want to do that.

But we can't let down the dairy farmers.

Back in 2000, there were fierce protests about the price of milk.

Once again, there is a threat by farmers to pour their milk away

and to even disrupt the Olympic Games if there isn't any change.

But tomorrow morning, Wyn Davies will be milking his cows as usual.

He hopes changes are afoot to make the effort worthwhile once more.

Llyr Roberts, you've carried out research on fair trade.

It's something we usually think of as being on the other side of the world.

Is there a problem here? Are the farmers getting a fair deal here?

No, there's a systemic problem in the market.

You have four milk processors who have too much power over the market.

It seems to me the way they've all cut their prices at the same time

will lead someone to believe the farmers are disadvantaged.

What's going to happen if we cut the amount the farmers get,

the smaller producers will not be able to survive.

We're then going to have these huge, unhealthy, unsustainable farms

and we'll lose the community and social value our small farms.

But it is a strange contract system.

The buyer can continually change the price.

But the seller is tied to that contract.

As you said, it has parallels with the fair trade industry.

The point is that we're trying to change the balance

and give more power to the producer

and get a fairer deal between the producer and the buyer.

So some of the aspects we see in Fair Trade, for example,

setting a bottom rate to the prices and setting a premium,

could we have something like that?

We can already see aspects of that with some of the supermarkets

offering a premium to the farmers who supply them directly.

I believe we need elements like that.

I hope the supermarkets ombudsman and others

will help to realise that.

Elin Jones, as a former Agriculture Minister,

the supermarket is always the spectre.

That is the image we have. But some buy directly.

Some are better than others.

So there is some good practice there, is there?

Yes, there is good practice.

The supermarkets will emphasise the good practice that they do

but those are direct contracts

with a relatively small percentage of the dairy sector.

Most dairy farmers sell their milk to the sector as a whole,

to the bulk market.

Those farmers are in a weak position within the market.

They are weaker than any other farmers

because their produce cannot be kept on the farm for a fortnight

and then be offered to another buyer.

The produce perishes within a day or two.

So they are restricted to their buyer.

-The buyer has the power.

-What's the answer?

That's why you need the Government

to intervene in this particular market.

The Deputy Minister there talked about contracts

and a possible best practice code, which would be voluntary.

I'm not confident that a voluntary one would work.

We may have to move towards a statutory code in the long term.

We're talking here about a process which has gone on for decades.

Farms have been getting bigger and more efficient.

That is what the market does

and Mrs Jones is glad to get her milk at a cheap price.

I believe things have got out of hand

since the Milk Marketing Board was abolished in 1994.

After that, farmers lost their power to make deals collectively.

That is one thing we'd like to encourage to return

so that farmers can make deals collectively.

Alun Davies has said,

if we can have a strong voluntary code which works,

and one which the supermarkets and the processors follow,

then that would be great.

If not then we must be ready to legislate.

Alun Davies has said if the Westminster Government fails,

the Assembly will be ready to do so.

Are you expecting Westminster to fail?

I'm always expecting a Tory Government to fail!

Elin Jones, when I was a Parliamentary correspondent,

Bob Parry from the FUW was on the doorstep at Downing Street

protesting about something every day, as were the NFU, of course.

There are fewer rural protests in London at the moment.

Is devolution the reason for this?

There are fewer protests by farmers in general

over the last five years, I would say.

Market prices have been better,

which gives the farmer more confidence in the farm's future.

So it is quite a substantial step that farmers have taken today

to resurrect the protest, as it where,

and there is real concern within the dairy sector.

That sector is facing high prices

because of the imports to the dairy sector.

That pressure and the margins are very tight.

Will farmers begin throwing away milk?

If you reach the point where it costs more to produce it

then it is unsustainable.

It is an unfair market.

It is a problem which is particular to this market.

We're talking about a particular problem which is happening now.

But people would say that, in truth, we need to take a step back,

that food in general is too cheap.

We're facing climate change

and there are problems with food safety and we should be

looking at the entire food industry in a different way than we do now.

I would tend to agree with that.

An interesting point was made earlier about bringing fair trade

into our food production here in Britain.

I believe, if we look at agriculture production in Britain,

it has grown and grown and grown.

But we must realise that this comes at a price.

Supermarkets will be putting pressure on the producers.

That is what is completely unfair, the different prices

the producers sell it at and what we pay in the shops.

But when things are tight,

we all want the cheapest milk price possible.

Can we change the mindset of the shopper?

It was said in the film that a bottle of water

is more expensive than a bottle of milk,

while the cost of manufacturing a bottle of water is going to be less

than what it costs the farmer to produce a bottle of milk.

A cultural change is needed.

The free market cannot work properly in the context

of providing the required supply of food in our country.

That is why we must look at the food sector,

and the food production sector,

in a different manner to other businesses.

Thank you very much to all three of you for your company tonight.

That is it for tonight.

We'll be back at the same time next week

for the final programme of the term.

-Until then, good evening.

-Good evening.