18/07/2012 CF99

Good evening and welcome to the last CF99 of the term.

Tonight after the scandal over the report on the future of the NHS,

the minister wins a vote of no confidence,

but a prominent Plaid Cymru member loses the whip.

And does the Assembly have power but no responsibility?

A look at how the wind is blowing in the Silk Commission

looking at the future of the Assembly.

Joining us for discussion tonight are AMs Keith Davies from Labour

and Suzy Davies from the Conservatives.

Myrddin Edwards is representing the Liberal Democrats

and MP Jonathan Edwards of Plaid Cymru is in our Carmarthen studio.

Welcome to you all.

There was no end of term concert or games for AMs at the end of term.

But a thorny political problem.

After being questioned by a committee this morning,

the Health Minister narrowly won a vote of no confidence this afternoon.

The former Plaid Cymru leader Dafydd Elis-Thomas

was not in the Senedd for the vote

and as a result he has temporarily lost the whip.

In the last few minutes he has confirmed that he will

argue that he was not absent without reason.

Here's James Williams.

In the political world, when you have a strong hand,

you have to make the most of it.

And that's what we saw the opposition parties trying to do

tonight in the Assembly.

When doubts were raised about the Marcus Longley report on the NHS,

the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrats

felt they had a trump card

so they presented a motion of no confidence in the Health Minister,

but some criticised them for playing their cards too early.

When you do something in the chamber itself,

it becomes political and then the Government

and government backbenchers support the minister.

Of course, they will support their own minister.

So the opposition parties can't win.

The sensible thing to do would be to drip, drip, drip,

make sure the minister is seen as weak and then go for the motion,

but not go for the jugular straight away.

But the motion tonight failed

because there was a joker in the pack.

It made no sense to me to leave this university

and go and vote against a Health Minister who has been very supportive

of us and of the reforms that have to take place

to raise the standard of the NHS across Wales

and especially here in North Wales.

I think it is high time we grew up as a party

and took a much more constructive viewpoint about our politics

rather than just calling votes of no confidence and being poodles

and playing second fiddle to the Conservatives.

What's the point of politics

if it's just a matter of being for or against the government?

I think we need more than that kind of politics in Wales.

We need a vision of what Wales could become

and that's not the way to achieve that.

Of the three opposition leaders,

Kirsty Williams of the Liberal Democrats

was the only one to get a concession from the Government so far

during budgetary discussions last year.

The other two leaders are new players.

Andrew RT Davies of the Conservatives

and Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood.

And the political gap between them suggests that co-operation is the exception, not the rule.

There is a pattern.

Leanne Wood won't work with the Tories too often.

She wants to be to the left of the Labour Party

and hopes to get the votes in the Valleys and she can't do that

if she is to the right of the Labour Party.

I would certainly say politically that there is more room for them

there than on the left.

The opposition parties lost the game today,

but are their chips up or down

after taking what many consider to be quite a political risk.

Myrddin Edwards, was it a gamble that failed?

You don't put a motion like this before the Assembly without

thinking about it deeply and that's what the three leaders did.

They thought about this carefully.

They weren't considering that the Health Minister could make

these changes that will come and will be difficult for the NHS

over the next weeks, months and years.

They had no confidence in her.

What caused that was the fact that she said that Marcus Longley's

report that James mentioned in that piece was an independent report.

It wasn't an independent report.

We saw the Government's fingerprints all over this report.

If she had said quite simply, "We've commissioned Marcus Longley

"to help us tell the people of Wales why we have to change services."

So the debate is over?

We would have lost the vote anyway, but the symbolism of all three

opposition leaders coming together and co-operating, as James said,

to get the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru co-operating

sends a strong message.

This wasn't a frivolous gesture.

Suzy Davies, Darren Millar went for the nuclear button at the beginning,

was it too early?

I don't think so.

There is no more important service to the Welsh people

than the NHS and over the last few months,

people have lost confidence and faith in the minister.

This is an important matter.

But that's not what you've been discussing for a fortnight,

but rather who said what in e-mails?

But this is important.

This is the end of the story in a way

because the matter of faith in the minister has been

going on for sometime and as Simon Thomas said,

we have reached this situation

because of what happened in the past, not just in the e-mails.

Keith Davies, the Health Minister has survived and won by one vote,

but the Government has to sell these changes.

Tonight we've had a taste of what will be

announced by the Betsi Cadwaladr Health Board.

You haven't had a chance to read it,

and I have only looked at the bullet points,

but there are controversial things,

accident and emergency departments are going to go,

including Blaenau Ffestiniog.

Glan Clwyd will lose out to Ysbyty Maelor and Ysbyty Gwynedd on emergency work.

These are hard things to sell and now the report the Government

was relying on to sell it, the Longley report,

there are question marks over it.

I don't think there are any questions over it.

No-one has complained about the report.

They are talking about some scheme.

I thought it was a weak step today

because Lesley Griffiths was not to blame.

She had done nothing to do with the report.

But nobody has argued against the report.

But thinking about the public,

I know that several weeks ago you took the Longley report

to a meeting in Llanelli and asked what people thought about it.

Do you think you could take that report to a meeting next week?

I'm disappointed by what happened today

because the public will have no faith in it.

When we discuss it with them, opposition parties will say

that you can't trust anybody and I think that is a terrible step.

So will opposition parties have succeeded?

We'll look at the plans and I know now that Hywel Dda

has put plans in front of us that won't be acceptable

to everybody in the area and they will be controversial,

but the public will say they can't trust anyone from now on.

-Jonathan Edwards, in Carmarthen, good evening.

-Good evening.

Dafydd Elis-Thomas, the big development tonight, losing the whip.

Why have they taken this step?

Once you are a member of any political group

you have individual responsibilities to that group.

Clearly, campaigning against the Labour Party's agenda

to centralise the NHS has been a part of Plaid Cymru's work

in the Assembly for several terms and has been a basis of the deal

in terms of Wales that we made in the third Assembly

with the partnership with the Labour Party,

that they yielded their policy of centralising health services.

So I think once an individual breaks the whip, breaks a clear policy

the party has, there are implications in terms of discipline.

We have had a response from Dafydd Elis-Thomas tonight

explaining clearly that he was not absent without reason.

He is the Chancellor of Bangor University

and he had a large audience of over 600

twice during the day and he had to be there as well.

The BBC comments have led to the whip being withdrawn today.

Dafydd Elis-Thomas is a great politician and I have immense

respect for him and the things he has achieved for Wales are great,

he created this new politics in Wales,

and he still has an important role within Plaid Cymru and Wales.

Many people campaign hard to defend their health services in local

hospitals and they will be disappointed

to see what happened today.

I can assure you as someone who reads the Llanelli Star every week

that my constituents will be very upset that he supported

this policy which will lead to the disruption of their services.

What does Dafydd Elis-Thomas have to do to regain the whip?

Like any politician, he has his own political agenda.

I think he has to decide whether he wants to obey the party

in the Assembly and I am sure there will be a disciplinary process.

We'll see what happens over the next few days,

but it is clear from what Dafydd Elis-Thomas said to you tonight,

I hadn't heard these comments before this programme,

that he is back-tracking a bit on what he said this afternoon.

Keith, are you tempted to try to tempt the Lord over to your ranks?

-He'd give you an outright majority.

-He might come, who knows.

The papers have talked about that over the last few months.

-I don't see it happening, but it could happen.

-Would you welcome it?

Of course, he is a very good socialist.

Suzy, we've seen the opposition parties

co-operating for the first time to all intents and purposes.

Is there a pattern developing, Leanne Wood today was unhappy

when someone suggested she was happy to co-operate with the Tories?

This isn't the first time we've agreed on something with them

and voted against the government.

It happens almost every week.

You disagreed over the Budget, didn't you?

Everyone was asking for different things

and the Lib Dems were the only ones who is got a concession in the end,

but there was more co-operation this time?

It is a possibility and it depends what happens.

The people of Wales are our priority.

And if we have common ground we can make the same response

so, of course, we will co-operate in those circumstances.

Myrddin, the split is 30/30,

but it doesn't seem that Carwyn Jones had any trouble

governing over the last few years.

Of course, there were disputes over the Budget

and the coalition agreement,

but why have the opposition parties failed to land many blows on him?

Is he slow with legislation

or have you failed to agree with the other opposition parties?

You've just answered my question.

The Government has not done much in the Assembly.

They haven't done much controversial or brought many Bills through to discuss.

They keep the controversial things to the end,

but for example with the Budget,

they worked with us and we got more money for poor children in Wales

and we were happy with that, but what happens next year?

They have to find someone else to make a deal with,

but as Vaughan said, not much has come into the Assembly.

They haven't found themselves in a difficult situation

where they need to depend on other parties.

Jonathan, Carwyn Jones is in a comfortable position, isn't he?

He gets his way in the Assembly without much trouble.

He can blame London for everything that goes wrong.

He is happy enough, isn't he?

I sometimes watch the Assembly on TV

if I can catch the highlights

and when you watch First Minister's Questions it worries me

a great deal that the presiding officer allows the First Minister

to answer questions by asking more questions.

That's not how the process should work.

AMs should ask a question and the First Minister should answer them.

He is a arrogant man in my opinion and we have an arrogant

Government in Wales on the basis of his personality.

To come back to this vote of no confidence,

I think it is more than just the e-mails which show

someone being paid to make a report on the basis

of what the Government wants to justify their own policy.

It is a vote of no confidence unfortunately in the Health Minister

and we have a Cabinet full of weak ministers

and she is out of her depth.

She is responsible for a £5 billion budget

and it's a disgrace how Wales is being governed at the moment.

You have to ask the question about lack of discipline

in your party in terms of the chance you have had to land a blow

on the Government and you have thrown that chance away.

I think next year in Welsh politics will be very interesting.

What we will increasingly see is the battle between the Tories

and Plaid Cymru to see who can make the best alternative choice

for the people of Wales in the next elections.

What about the lack of discipline in Plaid Cymru?

That will be solved through the channels stated tonight,

but the important thing is that it has been a very good week for the Assembly.

It is important that Elin Jones has agreed to be deputy

and that shows that groups are ready to lay the challenge

at Labour's door.

It is early days for Leanne Wood as leader,

but I can see that Plaid Cymru will create that alternative choice

and the Tories and the Lib Dems will find it much harder

because they are in power in Westminster

and they have to make the difficult choice

to distance themselves from the bad policies in London or support them.

The Welsh Government will be freer to go back

and develop a true opposition party in Wales.

Keith Davies, are you surprised by how comfortable things have been

for you over the last year?

Yes but the truth is that Carwyn Jones published

a programme for Government yesterday and nobody questioned it.

They accepted the programme.

If they accept our programme, it will be easy.

We've got some shocked expressions, here.

We've heard that some four times before.

We're fed up with what's in the programme.

Jonathan was talking about

unpopular policies coming from Westminster.

We heard early this week about £2 billion of investment

coming into Wales.

Electrifying the line up to Swansea. I don't call that a bad policy.

In 2009 it was part of our policy with Labour in Westminster.

We won't go into that!

It has been a busy nine months for the Silk Commission members

concerning the future of devolution as they travel across Wales,

assessing people's opinions about the Assembly's powers.

The process of collecting evidence is nearly over

and an opinion poll by the commission

has shown support for devolving income tax powers to Wales.

Elliw Gwawr reports.

At the moment the Assembly has to make cutbacks

as its only source of income comes from the Treasury,

but is it high time that was changed?

This is what the Silk Commission has been asking over the last few months.

According to Cheryl Gillian who set-up the commission,

with power comes responsibility

and it is high time, she says,

that the Assembly Government starts to pay its way

and take responsibility for raising some of the money it spends.

I think it is a responsible thing to ask any democratic body

to raise some of the money it spends.

That is essential and I think it will lead to

more mature discussion about policies in Wales

and also I think it will lead to better connections

between the Welsh Government and the world of business.

But the question of who is responsible for the public purse

worries many in the world of business.

Unfortunately if we have different taxes in Wales,

I think it will be difficult for the business world in England.

They will have to decide whether to relocate to Wales

with lower taxes or if it is the other way around with England.

What we want in the business world, in Wales especially,

is for things to be level for everybody.

That everyone has the same respect

and things don't change from year to year.

That's what has a negative effect on business.

The commission has gauged public opinion

and a recent poll said the majority supported

tax devolution to the Welsh Government.

64% of the 2,000 asked thought the Assembly should determine

the level of income tax,

but 81% thought it shouldn't be done without another referendum.

And if taxes were higher in Wales, only 28% still believed

they should be devolved.

But ICM, who ran the poll, said there was evidence

of lack of understanding of the current taxation system.

I think the subject is a complicated one.

One of the things we have to do in our report, I think,

is educate people on how things work and how things are at the moment.

Not everyone has faith in the process.

I think the Silk Commission is preparing the way for the first part

of their report which I think will come out in September or

October and that is so they can say then that they more or less

are doing what the people want.

So in a word, it is a fix.

The commission will publish its findings in the autumn,

but in the meantime, Westminster will decide what use

they wish to make of the information.

Elliw Gwawr.

Keith Davies, has this place got too much power without responsibility?

I think we in the Labour Party wants to raise some kind of taxes.

I think the Silk Commission is looking at it as well.

On things like waste disposal, and air travel but also on income tax.

But also, on income tax,

Trimsaran council can raise taxes, the Assembly cannot.

So this place should have that power?

In my opinion, we should have a referendum on it

and if the people of Wales are ready, as they are in Scotland,

then we will welcome it.

How would you vote in that referendum?

I would vote for tax raising powers.

If you have responsibility, the same as when you look at your

personal salary and expenditure, you perhaps make better priorities.

-Are you spending foolishly now?

-Yes. On some things, maybe.

What was that house in north Wales?

I don't remember the details now.

Suzie, do we still need a new referendum?

We can reform the House of Lords without a referendum.

Do we need another one?

I sympathise with what you say,

but we shouldn't jump ahead of what the Silk Commission will say.

A lot of ideas are coming into the pot at the moment and everything is

being considered and a referendum

is just one of the of the possibilities.

I don't know. It just depends on what the question is in the end.

Jonathan, do you want another referendum?

I don't think we need another referendum.

What the ICM poll clearly shows

is that the people of Wales are far ahead

of the parties and possibly ahead of the national party

in Wales and we need to catch up.

The referendum last year showed the vast majority

were in favour of more powers for Wales.

People weren't voting for section four of the 2006 Bill,

they were voting in favour of further powers in Wales.

We have to face a huge economic emergency at the moment.

And what is essential to improve the economy in Wales

is that we have the levers to create jobs

and political powers to change the economy.

To go back to the announcement on electrification, we welcome that.

I raised the matter 15 times in the House,

but to make the most of that investment in transport infrastructure,

we need the fiscal powers to make sure that manufacturing companies

make the most of the better links

and that's why those powers are important and we need them now,

not just talking about it for years and then having a referendum.

People in Wales are losing jobs while they discuss it.

There will be less in coffers unless Westminster still gives

more money according to the Barnett formula?

What is essential is that any new taxation system is cost neutral.

That's why I have some concern that the discussions about reforming

the block grant and borrowing powers are separate from this.

They should be part of the same process.

If you have taxation powers, you need borrowing powers to even

flatten out the peaks and troughs when taxation falls.

If I can just finish, if we have taxation powers,

it would mean the Welsh Government is forced to focus on creating

wealth to fund public services.

At the moment they are like little

children getting pocket money and giving it out as they want.

Apart from taxation, everyone here agrees about these borrowing powers.

Why does the commission need to determine them?

Would your Government in Westminster have been able to do it?

They are looking at many elements related to devolution and it is

important that we have a discussion over what powers the Assembly wants.

In our evidence to the Silk Commission,

we said we wanted taxation powers to come into Wales

and we'll see about the referendum, we'll see what happens.

Plenty to discuss in the next sitting.

Thanks for coming to us at the end of this session.

That's it for tonight and for the series.

Thanks for your company and we'll be back in September.

-Until then, have a good summer and good night.

-Good night.