19/09/2012 CF99

Hello and welcome. It's great to be back after the long summer.

Assembly Members aren't back yet and Westminster is taking a break

for the conferences, but we have politics to discuss.

Tonight, after the Westminster Government announced

it wanted to turn its back on GCSEs,

would different qualifications in England and Wales

be a blessing or a curse?

And, it's the economy, stupid.

No, not Clinton, but Leanne Wood's priority at the party conference.

But how would the party create jobs?

There's no shortage of GCSEs or O-levels among our guests.

They're all prepared for tonight's examination.

Welcome to Conservative MP Alan Cairns,

Baroness Morgan of Ely, Eluned Morgan, from Labour,

and Treasurer of Plaid Cymru, Dr Dafydd Trystan,

who is also the registrar of Y Coleg Cymraeg.

Welcome.

There is plenty of discussion on GCSEs at the moment.

New results were announced in Wales today

after the Education Minister

insisted that the WJEC regraded English papers.

The Westminster Government has decided to say goodbye

to GCSEs in England in 2015

and replace them with an English baccalaureate.

But what are the implications for school children in Wales?

1987.

When clothes were colourful, hair was big

and shoulders were bigger still.

Margaret Thatcher was elected to No. 10 for the third time

and 16-year-olds sat O-level exams

for the last time in England and Wales.

GCSEs took their place with an emphasis on course work.

Now they're talking about a new system in England,

similar to the old O-level system.

No modules, but one exam at the end of the course.

The Westminster Government says the aim is to raise standards,

but what about us in Wales?

The danger is how people outside Wales, particularly,

but also in Wales - employers and universities and so on,

see Welsh qualifications if they are different to those in England.

I'm sure Wales can come up with qualifications which are strong

and appropriate for Welsh students.

The Welsh Government emphasised this decision couldn't be made quickly.

Leighton Andrews said Welsh Ministers had committed

to avoiding any changes to GCSEs until the results

of the review of 14-19 education are known in November.

There has been a mixed response to the Welsh Government's decision.

Aled Davies is a governor, a Conservative councillor

and a father who lives on the border between England and Wales.

It sends the message that Leighton Andrew is happy

to give Welsh children second best.

I want to see Welsh children having a good education.

The are 850 to 900 children in Llanfyllin at the moment.

About 150 children come over the border from England.

The numbers in Llanfyllin will fall very rapidly.

Sion Morgan was in the first year of pupils to take GCSEs

and his daughter will be the first to work for the new qualification.

If my children move to England to work

and try for jobs against people who have been through the Ebacc system

and employers in England

look at the Ebacc qualification before looking at the Welsh one

and favour it, it may not be beneficial to us.

It's not just about devolution, but a result of governments

with different values in Wales and England.

We have a Conservative-led government in London

and a Labour government in Wales

and they see the world in fundamentally different ways.

Devolution can do things like that and this is an inevitable result.

It's impossible to predict what education will be like

in five years' time,

but more than just Offa's Dyke will separate the two countries by 2017.

Siwan Richards reporting.

-Alun Cairns, did you do O-levels or GCSEs?

-O-levels.

-Better than GCSEs?

-I'm sure GCSEs were fine at the beginning.

The Tories introduced them.

But an Ofqual report published in May this year

says they have been undermined over the last decade

because there are so many modules and so many chances to resit

until the candidate comes up to an A or A*.

What's wrong with that?

It doesn't differentiate between the best and those who try hard to pass.

Employers and universities need to find out who the best are.

Schools have to work out who needs more help.

But why not have a discussion between Belfast, Cardiff Bay

and Westminster, saying, "We have problems.

"We'll review them and change what needs changing",

rather than throw it all out, saying,

"We're going back to a system where the work you do

"over the first 18 months doesn't count"?

GCSEs are failing our children.

It's not fair that everyone passes.

Employers and universities can't differentiate between candidates.

Some universities are asking that our children sit different exams

to find out who the best are and who needs more help.

But universities offer places on the basis of A-levels rather than GCSEs.

On the basis of qualifications as a whole.

They have to pass subjects like English and maths and science

and because they pass them at GCSE level, they have to find the best.

Eluned Morgan, what should the Welsh Government do?

Alun suggests Wales should follow suit. Is that right?

We need to consult and that's what they're doing.

They're consulting teachers, parents, professionals

and also the people who will employ these people.

What's important is that we have a system that doesn't differentiate

between people when they're 14.

We don't say, "You will win and you will lose", when they're 14.

Nobody wants that.

The other thing is, you need to have another system

where employers can say, "This is the most successful group."

That's not possible at the moment.

The perception is important.

If people think the Welsh qualification is easier,

-that is a problem isn't it?

-That will be a problem.

But what is important now, and I think the Westminster Government,

to some extent, has picked a fight here, because it hasn't consulted.

It has made a decision without consulting or respecting

the fact that we live in the United Kingdom

where it is important that the children

understand each other and go to each other's universities.

Dafydd Trystan, an exam is a measure, that's all.

That is, if an employer complains that someone arriving at 16

doesn't have the literacy and numeracy skills needed,

changing the way that's measured doesn't solve the problem.

Certainly not.

What's happened is that there's an ideological agenda in Westminster

and Michael Gove is pushing these changes through

for party political reasons without worrying about children

and without considering the credible options to improve the system.

I agree with Alun in terms of the emphasis on exams

rather than continuous assessment.

There has to be a place for exams and coursework, but...

Would Plaid Cymru keep GCSEs?

What we have argued for in Wales for more than a decade

is qualifications that are appropriate for Wales.

No, no, no. Qualifications for Wales...

What worries me is that we'll become insulated.

I want Welsh children to go out into the world,

not something inward-looking.

We have to have a system which is respected abroad.

The Education Minister, who is in your party, Leighton Andrews,

says he might not have a choice.

He doesn't believe the Ebacc will be appropriate for Wales

and he might not have a choice.

The most important thing is that we concentrate on fundamentals

and get literacy and numeracy standards up.

There is a problem there under your Government.

There is a problem and Leighton is now focused on that.

What's happened in the past?

I think they concentrated on the foundation phase

and the Welsh baccalaureate and took their eye off it.

-Your government. Were those mistakes?

-I think that was a mistake.

I think it's a problem and we need to make up for it.

And the children of Wales pay price?

I think Welsh children are paying the price at the moment

and we have to have a system that raises standards,

not just within Wales, but compared to the outside world.

We have to have a system which proves standards are improving

and qualifications are the important one.

The only model we have to compare with is the Welsh baccalaureate.

Some universities in England don't accept it

because they don't see that it's good enough.

We could have introduced the international baccalaureate,

but the Assembly Government wanted its a model in Wales.

That's what I'm worried we'll get with GCSEs.

We'll get Welsh GCSEs instead of the English baccalaureate

and universities and employers will look at the Ebacc

before they look at the Welsh GCSE.

Can I ask another question?

Before the bonfire of the quangos,

we had a body called ACAC, who oversaw exams in Wales.

Do you think it's right that the Education Minister who, perhaps,

has all kinds of motives and political interests,

is in charge of the WJEC?

There are questions about regulation and quangos like ACAC.

We have seen the effect of the disappearance of the WDA

over the last few years.

We have to ask whether this is the most appropriate system...

Some people will be very dubious

that a politician has the last word over exams.

I'm dubious about that. That's why we need regulators

who are at arm's length from any politicians.

The children are what's important.

We have to remember, talking about the quangos,

Dafydd spoke about the WDA and ACAC.

Plaid Cymru and the Labour Party supported getting rid of quangos.

We defended them because of the problems we have now.

Returning to Michael Gove's statement, Eluned Morgan,

one thing he did say was that he wanted to get rid of competition

between the exam boards.

One board examined one subject and there has been a race to the bottom.

Do you support that?

I think that has happened and has created problems.

I think there is enough evidence to show that was happening

and I think that makes sense.

How we're going to deal with that in Wales, I don't know,

but these questions are fundamental points.

And questions over the future of the WJEC,

which does a lot of its business on the other side of Offa's Dyke.

There are challenges, but we have a very good exam board in Wales.

It can meet our needs.

But if the system in England is different from Wales,

it is unlikely Michael Gove will be happy to see the WJEC

examining children in England.

And exam boards have partners not just in England and Wales

but in Scotland and beyond.

We have to move on.

The conference season has begun and Leanne Wood chose to focus

on the economy in her first big speech to the Plaid conference.

She promised to create thousands of jobs

by investing in the green economy.

But why no talk of independence?

Arwyn Jones reports.

The conference, where the faithful come to support the hard work,

prepare for battles to come and listen to speeches.

Lots of speeches.

The biggest attraction this year is the new leader.

In this place, 600 years ago this summer,

Owain Glyndwr won his last battle.

The great wizard, as Shakespeare called him,

is disappearing into the mist of history,

but his spirit is alive.

But if Owain Glyndwr's spirit was alive and well

during the Plaid Cymru conference this weekend,

the independence he and a number of Plaid Cymru members support

was not so obvious.

The subject did not come up once in Leanne Wood's speech.

That may reflect the new emphasis within the party.

According to one former leader who was listening to the new leader,

she is right not to focus on independence

until the situation in Scotland is clearer.

If Scotland gets independence, one set of questions follows.

If it doesn't get independence but England yields more power -

the devo max, as they say,

then there will be a question over Wales and Northern Ireland

getting the same powers.

I think we need to wait and see how that works out.

At the same time, the economic question is so fundamental

and such a challenge, Leanne was right to focus on that.

Machynlleth - the home of Owain Glyndwr's Senedd.

Everyone remembers his battle for independence,

if not his economic plans.

And perhaps there is confusion among Plaid Cymru supporters

over their stand on those subjects.

This is what it says on independence in the Plaid Cymru manifesto

for last year's elections.

The party has always believed that if the people of Wales

have more power to shape their future,

Wales becomes a stronger, more confident and successful country

and that's why we continue to be committed to an independent Wales.

That is, only when Wales is independent

will the economy strengthen.

But that has changed.

Leanne Wood said over the weekend

that the economy needs to be strong enough first,

before we start to talk about independence.

But details on the economy were thin on the ground in her speech.

Politicians have a tendency to look for short-term answers,

but what we need is a complete strategy,

not just to improve the Welsh economy, but to improve skills,

so that we can take advantage of those changes.

It will take time to improve the economy

and that message has hit home.

Creating a green economy is the aim

and Leanne Wood went along the canal to see what is possible.

Although supportive of Leanne Wood,

one supporter was doubtful of her plans.

To say we can build an economy on the basis of green energy,

especially tidal and wind energy and simple things like that,

without clear plans, there's a big hole in that policy.

I sense this is what we'll get from the other parties as well.

I want simple policies, saying how we'll support small rural business.

Leanne Wood knew she'd receive a warm welcome from conference-goers

but what's more important is the response of thousand of voters

who have turned their backs on the party over the last decade.

Dafydd Trystan, let's go back to Dafydd Wigley's point.

Until we know what happens in Scotland,

Plaid Cymru have to stay where they are.

It will frame everything for you.

It will frame things

because there's a lively debate in Scotland

and the dynamic going on between the English and Scottish governments

about different aspects of devolution.

I'm certain that whatever happens in the referendum,

in five years' time, devolution in Scotland will have moved on

and that is the first step. That has an effect.

But isn't it surprising that at a time when the question

of the relationship between different parts of UK

is at the top of the UK agenda, for the first time ever, perhaps,

Plaid Cymru chooses not to discuss it?

We have said a lot about it.

Leanne went to Edinburgh recently and gave a speech

about healthy relations between the nations of these islands.

Between Wales, England and Scotland,

and that is the kind of vision the party offers.

-We were at the conference, weren't we?

-Yes.

You said the economy is the priority,

but there was a feeling that you'd only just discovered

the economy is in trouble.

Ieuan Wyn Jones has been running the Welsh economy.

It's important to acknowledge where the economy is at the moment.

We have been thinking it is 15 years since the referendum

that established the Assembly.

What's happened since is the economy has shrunk

and that is obviously a challenge.

-With Plaid Cymru in charge.

-Only for four years.

But I think, as the party looks ahead,

it's all important that by 2016,

which is the period that we're talking about,

that the party has a credible programme to rebuild the economy.

That is the big challenge and discussion.

What will the Welsh Government have to offer?

What will Plaid Cymru offer?

What will other parties offer?

That is the challenge for us and other parties.

I haven't heard anything new about the economy from Plaid Cymru.

It is just the same things they have talked about in the past.

And that is spending public money to create jobs.

That is going to be impossible for the next five years.

What about investing in green energy?

It seems there are ideas coming out of all the parties

that are not so different from each other.

The idea of having regional banks.

The Tories have suggested that, as have Plaid Cymru.

I don't think Labour would oppose it.

Would not a mature discussion be possible on this?

Something like that would make a difference on the side lines,

but it wouldn't change the culture of the economy.

Or the way the economy grows.

It would just help what Finance Wales do at the moment.

But it won't transform everything.

The only way to transform everything

is to cut bureaucracy and taxes and support businesses to create wealth.

The attitude of Plaid Cymru and Labour is to keep the bureaucracy,

because they want to keep people in the public sector,

rather than create wealth in the private sector.

Let's bring Eluned in. Leanne Wood spoke about austerity.

Her exact words about the Tories, about Labour, were austerity-lite.

She insisted that Plaid Cymru offered something different.

First, I think it is worth saying

that this shift in terms of the constitution is good for them

and for Wales.

I think there is an economic crisis going on.

And we need to do what we can, because jobs are important now.

The question is, how do we create those jobs?

That is the difference between us as parties.

I think what happened in the conference

was that some very sketchy ideas

about the future of green energy in Wales were put forward.

They're not sketchy.

That is not so different from Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.

Politicians don't like tying their hands years before an election

because situations change, the details come closer to an election.

But I think there is a naivety to the way they go about it.

The fact that they want systems like Glas Cymru,

or the system for how water is controlled....

I like that, but the fact is that that is one way of doing things.

But the way to grow the economy is through the private sector.

But they don't talk about the private sector.

I cannot believe this accusation of naivety.

We have some of the best economic brains in Wales

running our economic commission.

To be fair, in the conference, there weren't many details

about this new green deal.

There were no details on co-ordinating skills

from the public and private sectors to push for a new Welsh deal.

Nobody could explain what that meant.

These are the exact things, if we had three hours,

we could talk a lot about them.

But that is exactly what the economic commission is look at.

And it is working out those details.

I'm sure in two or three years,

the party will have dealt with that issue.

That is why things like the new green deal are important.

That is how jobs are created.

That is why regional banks are important.

In a sentence what is the new green deal?

Lots of investment in green co-operative projects.

-Where will the money come from?

-From regional banks, for example.

We must leave it there. Thank you very much.

That's all for tonight.

We will be back at 10 o'clock next week.

We hope to have your company then.

We will be looking at the Liberal Democrat conference.

And hopefully, the debate will be as lively next week.

-Good night.

-Good night.

.