17/10/2012 CF99

Redrafting the constitution isn't child's play

but preparations for the Scottish referendum have already started.

Two days ago it was confirmed that London and Edinburgh

had reached an agreement.

There will be one question on the ballot paper, in or out.

London are obviously worried about Scotland

and the fact it could be independent.

London are worried about the situation in Northern Ireland

for other obvious reasons.

I don't think London are concerned about Wales at all.

Sometimes they even forget about Wales.

So, there's an inequality of power in this country

and I think Wales needs to start to think about how

we can be more powerful by ourselves in these discussions.

It's possible that Scotland will decide to remain

with the UK in the end.

But are further changes inevitable by now with more

and more powers moving slowly from London to Edinburgh and Cardiff?

I think there will be a momentum in Scotland

to secure more powers for the Scottish Parliament.

Even without full independence they want more ways of add to

powers for Scotland and we'll see that as an opportunity

to be part of the discussion for more tax raising powers

as well as further devolved powers on policing, for example, to Wales.

Plaid Cymru isn't the only party that feels further devolution

will happen for Wales whatever happens in Scotland.

There's a growing consensus that a new constitution is needed.

The constitutional convention

is a group of people coming together

to secure a new agreement about the way the United Kingdom

and parts of the United Kingdom is run in future

to safeguard its future and the state of the United Kingdom.

If the Welsh people want more powers devolved,

that's what I also want to see.

I want to support what Wales's people want

and I expect to see devolution moving forwards in future.

I don't know what the timetable will be

but I expect a bit more devolution in future.

I am a gradualist more than a revolutionary

but we can't stop something like that.

15 years ago many were confident that devolution would be

the end of the arguments.

But the opposite happened.

With Scotland now considering leaving the UK,

questions about Wales's future are building quicker than the answers.

Richard, there was no doubt an agreement would be

reached in Scotland.

But can we note that Britain is unique in allowing this

sort of thing to happen.

It's not allowed in Spain and it wouldn't be allowed in France.

The discussions would illegal.

There's recent history in Spain where generals

have been saying they'll send in the army to Barcelona.

If you go to Madrid and discuss devolution,

and I have done that, the civil servants

within the Spanish administration are fiercely against

any kind of idea of a Basque country,

especially Catalonia becoming independent.

You go to London and civil servants there say

if they want to do it let them. It's totally different.

Does that show maturity within the United Kingdom

and shouldn't that be an argument for keeping it?

Or it shows a lack of concern the middle.

You can say that it's maturity but England is 85% of the UK.

Scotland is about 7%.

The 85% is quite quiet and confident in itself.

We are the sidelines.

In Spain, Catalonia and the Basque areas

are the strongest economic areas.

It would be a bigger blow for Spain to see Catalonia

being independent than it would be for the UK to see Northern Ireland

or Wales or Scotland disappearing.

Paul Davies, the step has been taken.

David Cameron and this step legalises the referendum in Scotland.

There's one question, not a second question on devo max.

It's a gamble.

Why hasn't David Cameron allowed that?

The SNP has made it clear over the last few years

-they want to see a referendum.

-With two questions.

They want independence

and that's the question the people of Scotland will have to answer.

I don't think they will vote for independence.

They aren't going to leave the UK.

Today, the Scottish Liberal Democrats

announced their plans for self-governance in Scotland.

Federalism within the UK.

How would that work for Wales?

That's been our viewpoint for several years.

But it seems there's a problem because England is so big

compared with other countries.

But the slogan, I think it goes back to Gladstone,

home rule all round, that suggests some kind of home rule for England?

Or the old Liberal Democrat policy, regions for England. Either or.

But that's a matter for England.

Under the previous Labour government there wasn't much support

for that situation.

It is a problem. We've seen it with the exams recently over the summer.

It is a problem as to how Wales and Scotland deal with England.

But isn't the elephant in the room what will happen to England?

That is a basic and important question.

I think it will be interesting to see how successful

that part of Scotland will remain united.

At the moment they're not offering anything else.

We've got David Cameron saying

if you vote no we'll give you more devolution, without defining that.

You've got the Lib Dems talking about home rule.

At the moment Labour haven't offered anything.

They will have to because that's where

the majority of Scottish people lie.

They want more devolution.

At the moment the unionist parties don't offer that.

I'm sure they won't continue united if they say no for two years.

What's interesting there is it seems to me the answer David Cameron

is moving towards is the same answer Carwyn Jones is offering.

Some kind of a constitutional convention to discuss it all.

But you're asking people to vote for something pretty empty

if you say vote no if you want a convention.

That's why I want to see a real federal Britain.

I've come to that conclusion for years.

One way to defend the United Kingdom is to have a federal system.

We want a parliament in Scotland, parliament in England,

and a parliament in Northern Ireland and Wales.

Similar to the Liberal Democrats.

I don't accept this debate that England is too big.

That's the situation we've got now. You can argue England's too big.

If you have a truly federal system,

it then defends those areas within the United Kingdom.

Richard, what interests me here, too,

is that every time we think the devolution debate in Wales

has been settled, that it's over at least for a time,

it comes back almost immediately.

It's just over a year since we had that referendum,

and not just because of Scotland but also these court cases

about legislation here,

it seems to me that the Welsh settlement question is completely open.

There is no Welsh settlement. We haven't had a settlement.

I refuse to use the word "settlement," because it's been too unstable.

And of course, a month tomorrow, we're expecting the first Silk Commission report.

That'll say something about taxation powers,

and that report could easily be consolidated

before any of the suggestions are put into action.

As you say, the completely mad behaviour, as I see it,

of the Wales Office in London,

policing this place's legislative competence,

has already raised the question of changing the way powers are given to this place already,

which as far as I see...

I don't understand why David Jones is doing this from his own standpoint.

So we're still moving very fast on this.

And whatever is decided in Scotland, Aled Roberts,

won't the way this place is funded also be discussed?

Because if there was a "yes" vote, the Barnett Formula would be over.

The Barnett Formula is over anyway.

We'll have to do something different in terms of that formula.

What's interesting is if devo max had been put to the Scottish people,

the financial implications of that on Wales would have been worse still.

Paul, let me bring up the point Richard raised about the Wales Office,

and what's happened already, the court case last week

about a petty little bill relating to local government.

We're now hearing questions coming up about official language bills.

This is very strange.

Is the Wales Office trying to make the same mess of this settlement

as it made of the last one?

As I understand it, this is a legal matter, and I'm not a lawyer.

But of course if you speak to one lawyer they'll say one thing,

and another lawyer will say something completely different.

So we'll have to see what the High Court or the Supreme Court says.

Yes, but it's a decision...you know, there's a legal argument,

but it's a political decision to have that legal argument by going to court.

Because if no-one else had gone to court,

Pembrokeshire Council wouldn't have gone to court because of some row

about tattoo parlours in Haverfordwest, would they?

The UK Government has decided to take it to court.

Yes, and that's why I want to see a truly federal system in the UK,

because we wouldn't have this problem then,

because you'd have proper parliaments across the UK,

and we'd avoid problems like this in future.

Richard, going back to Scotland, if the people of Scotland do say no,

and that's what the opinion polls suggest at the moment,

what about the future of the SNP?

Well, there are two things to say.

Firstly, I wouldn't take it for granted that the Scottish people are going to say no at the moment.

They have two years, and anyone who underestimates the political capabilities of the SNP

has forgotten the lesson of the last election in Scotland,

where the SNP turned round what looked like a hopeless situation

four weeks before the vote.

They have two years to work on this.

But in terms of the SNP, we have a situation in Scotland where people differentiate

between their constitutional opinion

and who they want to see running the country.

And there's no doubt that the SNP at present

is far more popular as a governing power.

Not just because Alex Salmond is a popular politician,

but also because the SNP appears to govern far more effectively than its predecessors.

So it's very easy to imagine a situation where there was perhaps a "no" vote,

but the SNP won the election after that,

so the constitutional question would return to the agenda immediately.

-Groundhog Day.

-Exactly.

Over the weekend, a group of people will convene in Aberystwyth

to discuss the future of the Welsh language.

But there'll be no marching or loudspeakers anywhere near,

and no placards either, as the members of the new group, Dyfodol I'r Iaith,

meet for the first time.

The group aims to lobby to ensure that the language is at the centre of Welsh community and civic life.

Carl Roberts has more.

'Restoring the Welsh language in Wales

'is nothing less than a revolution.'

2012 is a historic year for the Welsh language.

Half a century since Saunders Lewis gave his "Tynged yr Iaith" speech,

and the 50th anniversary of Cymdeithas yr Iaith Gymraeg.

But amongst all the history, a new movement, Dyfodol I'r Iaith, has been founded.

It wants to steer clear of this kind of campaigning to concentrate on other methods of influencing opinion.

I don't believe Cymdeithas Yr Iaith has taken advantage

of the huge number of people in Wales

who have good will for the Welsh language,

but perhaps don't agree with lawbreaking, for instance,

and don't feel comfortable with that.

But another element has developed in the last ten years,

which is the agreement of all four main parties in Wales

about the language.

They are all now supportive of the Welsh language.

Of course, we do lobbying work already, and we welcome the fact

that a number of language movements do that,

and that more groups are coming into being to do that work.

As I said, there's already an umbrella group of language movements -

Celebrating Our Language - and we hope that through that forum

we can co-operate with new language movements being established.

There's plenty of choice between different groups,

with appeal for every kind of campaigner,

but at least one AM from Wales won't be joining any language movements.

Over the last 30 years, we've seen extraordinary developments

in terms of the status of the Welsh language,

but those developments have been primarily in the public sector,

in terms of people's rights to use the language in the workplace,

and yet what we've seen is the Welsh speaking communities not being defended and fading.

And without communities where Welsh is naturally a majority language,

I worry that all we're doing is ensuring the right for a minority to use the language

where the majority don't do so.

Cymdeithas Yr Iaith has 50 years of history,

and can claim many successes for the Welsh language.

But what would Dyfodol I'r Iaith consider a success after the first year?

I hope that we will have started to formulate policies and ideas.

I'm not saying that we have the only answer,

but formulating proposals and ideas in different fields,

with the Government's role in the centre,

so that the Government within a year realises that the Welsh language

isn't just a matter for a single minister,

but also in the economy, housing and so on.

Whatever the fate of these movements, only the fate of the language

will be the measure of their success.

Carl Roberts.

-Richard Wyn Jones, you'll be addressing the conference on Saturday.

-Yes.

What would you say the language needs at the moment?

We have a very strange situation at the moment in Wales,

where we have this place, the National Assembly,

we have the Welsh Government,

establishments which were created with the very enthusiastic support

of Welsh speakers, and especially those who love the language.

But nobody's made the best use of these establishments to fight for the language.

-We have...

-What would be the best use?

Here in Cardiff Bay at the moment, we have all kinds of interest groups represented,

lobbying for one thing or another, but there's no-one here

permanently lobbying for the Welsh language.

So you'd be content if Cymdeithas Yr Iaith had a smart office in the Bay?

Well, there's a significant conceptual difference here.

Cymdeithas Yr Iaith has existed for half a century -

happy birthday to Cymdeithas Yr Iaith, by the way -

and has followed this pattern of having local groups,

of concentrating its resources on acting in that way,

and what we're saying is, "Look, we've had these establishments for 15 years now,

"and they have all kinds of potential, and we're not making the best of them."

So it's a very simple idea, to tell the truth.

But, Paul Davies, if the four main parties, as Heini said,

are in favour of promoting the language,

shouldn't it be the parties generating these ideas?

Do you need a pressure group

or an external thinktank to do that work for you?

It's important that parties also offer ideas,

but I very much welcome this group.

There are some very illustrious people associated with it already!

And I hope some real ideas will come from the group,

and I'm sure they will,

because the irony at the moment is that we see in traditionally Welsh speaking areas

that use of the language is unfortunately decreasing,

and if you look at towns and cities, the Welsh language is growing.

And I think that's the irony now.

And that's what this new group, as I understand it, wants to do,

is ensure that the Welsh language

is truly a language of the community in Wales.

Is there room for everyone, Aled Roberts -

is it a good thing that more and more groups, like Arddel as well,

Dyfodol, Cymdeithas Yr Iaith...

Is there confusion or is it a good thing that they're flourishing like this?

It definitely is.

I think there are complex questions which come up in terms of...

Paul mentioned the growth of the language in education in towns and cities.

But there's a danger that the growth is only within schools.

There are big problems in terms of planning policies and so on,

and at present, the Welsh language isn't central to those debates.

Richard, what strikes me is that Dyfodol doesn't seem to be in much danger

of stepping on Cymdeithas Yr Iaith's toes,

but you're stepping on the toes of the Language Commissioner, aren't you?

Isn't all this policy work, proposing these ideas...

That's the Commissioner's remit, and she's paid a lot of money to do it.

Yes, but within any political regime, and with all due respect to the Language Commissioner,

you need people who push and say uncomfortable things sometimes.

We're a non-partisan body keeping an arm's length from the parties,

and I feel that when you keep at arm's length and don't depend on their funding and so on,

you can say things other people can't.

What about Cymdeithas Yr Iaith?

You were very critical of them in Barn recently.

Angharad Tomos hit back at you as well.

Is that a healthy thing to do, attacking each other publicly like that?

I don't think personal attacks help at all.

But there's an important conceptual difference -

where's your emphasis?

As I've said, Cymdeithas Yr Iaith has 50 years of tradition

of focusing on one way of organising,

and we're saying that there are new establishments in Wales,

that things have changed in those 50 years,

and these establishments have been created -

why aren't we making the best use of these establishments

to promote the Welsh language? It's very simple.

Who will politicians be more likely to listen to?

Well, I'd very much welcome the ideas

which will come from this group,

and I think it's important that politicians do listen to groups like this

if we want to see the Welsh language flourishing in our communities.

We want to see the language alive in our communities,

and as I said earlier, unfortunately,

in some traditionally Welsh speaking areas, the language is decreasing.

The danger, I'd imagine, Aled, is that we perhaps end up

with some kind of denominationalism developing within the language movements,

you know, that there's a large number of groups who all have broadly the same aims,

but disagree on the small details here and there,

like the Scotch Baptists arguing with Calvinist Methodists,

rather than bringing the gospel to the people, as it were.

Well, as an Independent...

No, I think there have always been different standpoints in terms of the language,

that some people support lawbreaking and some are uncomfortable with it.

I think that's always been the situation,

but I think it's quite healthy that there are now different groups coming to us.

We should listen to every one of them,

we won't agree with all of them, but every group brings ideas.

But is there a place for placards and marching, Richard Wyn Jones?

-Or do you want all that to be put aside?

-No...You know...

In the same spirit as Colin Nosworthy being ecumenical,

I'll be ecumenical too.

There's no...that is, there's room for different kinds of emphasis.

What I personally feel is that Cymdeithas Yr Iaith concentrates on one thing,

and opportunities are lost because of that,

so this is an attempt to make the best of those opportunities.

And there's no doubt that there's a radical chic to Cymdeithas Yr Iaith.

There's an appeal for Welsh speakers especially of...

You know, you see those images on screen and there's an excitement to it,

and perhaps people will say, "No, we don't want this kind of movement in future,

"you're not exciting enough," and perhaps the whole thing won't work.

But I think enough people instinctively understand that we need to use these establishments.

Perhaps they'll choose academic chic!

Exactly.

Thanks to you three.

That's it for another week.

We'll be back at the same time next Wednesday.

-Until then, goodnight.

-Goodnight.

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