10/10/2012 CF99


10/10/2012

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Hello and welcome to CF99.

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On tonight's programme, David Cameron closes

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the Conservative Conference insisting Britain is on the right track.

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We'll be discussing his leadership and the future of his party.

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Also, the fight for power in the Supreme Court.

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The governments of Wales and the UK go head-to-head.

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Joining is in the Senedd are Suzy Davies AM of the Conservatives

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and the economist Dr Martin Rhisiart of the University of Glamorgan.

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Hywel Williams MP of Plaid Cymru is in our Bangor newsroom. Welcome.

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Well, after weeks of speeches, promises and the odd policy,

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conference season is over.

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The Conservatives were the last party to gather

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and the messages in Birmingham this week were pretty serious.

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More cuts, an economy to save and tough times still ahead.

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But things used to be very different for the party,

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as Arwyn Jones reports.

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# Weren't they good days?

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# Weren't they good days?

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# Weren't they good days? #

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The golden era for the Conservatives in Wales was surely the 1980s

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when they won 14 seats

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and nearly a third of the vote under the leadership of Thatcher.

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Doesn't that please you? Doesn't it please any of you? Oh, cheer up!

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But as the conference-goers flocked to Birmingham this week,

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they were short of high spirits.

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The economy is a mess and the opinion polls on the whole are limp.

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The party faithful were informed by the Chancellor

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that there are further cuts to come.

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They say they were left a fragile economy by the previous Labour government.

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But in order to try and give workers a boost, there was a new plan.

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You, the company, give your employees shares in the business.

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You, the employee, replace your old rights of unfair dismissal

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and redundancy with new rights of ownership.

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Get shares and become owners of the company you work for.

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Owners, workers and the taxman, all in it together.

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The opposition parties insist fewer cuts and more investment

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are what is needed, but the Government is dismissing that. But it wasn't always that way.

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The National Library archive shows different ideas.

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This is a pamphlet by former chancellor Geoffrey Howe

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and former MP Tom Hooson, written for the party back in 1959.

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One of the points Jeffrey Howe made in this document in 1959

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was the Government needed to spend money

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on things like road-building.

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They talk about the M4 and building the Severn bridge,

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boosting the economy, using Government money

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and that of course, is very different from what George Osborne

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and David Cameron said during the conference.

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But the economy at the time was very different to today.

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David Cameron said this afternoon that Britain

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is in battle against other countries in terms of attracting businesses.

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He said there are hard days to come but his message was hopeful.

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Let us hear in this hall, here in this Government,

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together in this country make this pledge,

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let us build an aspiration nation.

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Let us get Britain on the rise, deficit paid down,

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tough decisions taken, growth fired up, aspiration backed all the way.

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We know what it takes to win in the tough world of today

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for all our people, to Britain for Britain,

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so let's get out there and do it.

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That was the secret of Margaret Thatcher's success,

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appealing to the ambitious aspirational voters.

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It'll be a challenge for David Cameron to emulate her success

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but today he started his attempt to do that.

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Suzie Davies, you were at the conference.

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The word we have seen most is "flat."

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It wasn't flat, but it was a sober atmosphere,

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you are right to say that, but as you saw in that package,

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at the end of the conference there was a sense of hope and optimism.

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But it appeared to me as if David Cameron and George Osborne

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were also risking everything politically

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on the hope that the economy will improve.

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Not just that there is no economic plan B

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but there is no political plan B.

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If the economy doesn't improve the party is in trouble.

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I don't agree.

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They said things are harder than people expected

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especially in terms of what's happened in the EU

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since the last general election.

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But to change from that path now would be a problem

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because the markets have said the only reason

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they have to look at the UK at the moment

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and keeping the cost of borrowing low

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is that the coalition government is following this path.

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It's worth remembering that the deficit the Government

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inherited from the previous one was the biggest one in Europe.

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But we've got the lowest borrowing costs.

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Martin Rhisiart, is plan A working?

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It's not working because we're in a double dip recession.

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One of the things the Chancellor depended on

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was that we'd come out of the last recession

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and this austerity plan would work and the economy would grow.

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2% was what they were predicting for 2012.

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And we are ending 2012 having shrunk 100.4% according to the IMF.

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So, it's not working and its ironic

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that because the economy isn't growing,

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it's taking away the Government's ability to pay back the deficit.

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But some economists say there are signs of recovery

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and that the green shoots are on the horizon, you don't?

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There are some signs, but having said that,

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if we take what the IMF said this week,

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that we need to loosen this austerity plan,

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they are now saying Osborne should change his plans

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because it's affecting the economy's potential to grow.

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I think they have to listen to that important message.

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Hywel Williams, there's a difference between what you do in terms

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of policy and how you present those policies to the public.

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Perhaps George Osborne and David Cameron don't want people

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to think they've changed the policy,

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but they could change it in substantial enough ways

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by saying they are adapting it to deal with circumstances?

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I thought it was a very sober conference.

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Sometimes I don't think I even live on the same planet as Cameron

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and Osborne let alone the planet.

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They are changing the policy due to some circumstances.

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Harold Macmillan said "events dear boy"

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about what drives the economy and they have to respond.

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But that's different from having a plan thought out beforehand

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and putting that into action quickly.

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What is David Cameron's vision?

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He's forgotten about hugging hoodies now and the "big society".

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He seems to be changing with the direction of the wind.

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He talks about constitutional change,

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although he's signing an agreement with Alex Salmond.

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He's changed emphasis. He was much better in his speech I thought.

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Suzy, on that point, where is his vision?

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I don't think it's changed at all.

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Cameron's vision and that of the party has been the same for years.

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We're talking about hard work. This was a central theme in the speech.

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Personal responsibility as well and co-responsibility.

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-That's Miliband's One Nation.

-We mentioned the economy earlier.

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What is the point in having a One Nation party that borrows money?

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That's not the answer.

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That's the Thatcherite message.

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There's another tradition within the Conservative Party,

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a tradition that uses Keynesen principles

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that existed for decades from the Second World War.

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Should the party start to question whether Thatcherism

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is the only thing it has in its armoury?

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Every party should look at their economic philosophy.

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I think they are in a bit of a hole at the moment

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because they've put so much emphasis on this rhetoric of austerity

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and they don't think much beyond that.

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We've seen economic circles talking about neo-Thatcherism

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and neo-Liberalism in the '90s and today to some extent

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but there are signs that's coming to an end.

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Lastly, Hywel, would it be fair to look at these conference,

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the speech that created the most impression was Ed Miliband's?

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That was the most stylish. It was certainly better than Cameron's.

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That was a one-trick speech.

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At least Miliband talked about himself and outlined a vision.

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Do you remember Leanne Wood's speech?

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I do. She talked about One Nation and economic growth

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and the green economy.

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I could be here all night talking about that speech.

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Suzy Davies, there was one element of the speech that surprised me,

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Cameron doesn't talk much about himself.

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Ed Miliband gave some narrative.

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He talked about his son's death, but we haven't heard the story

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before about his father and his disability anywhere before.

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Was that a response to Miliband, with Cameron feeling

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that he has to show that he's more than a caricature

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of some posh boy, who only worries about posh boys?

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He mentioned cartoon conservatives in the speech.

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It was important for him

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to show people how he deals with the problems we have at the moment.

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He was completely clear that everyone has a chance to help

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with their own future, for example, he talked about a million new jobs

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from new companies coming in the private sector.

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I'd like to know where they are in Wales, though.

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But he was showing people that he wasn't a cartoon,

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that he's a Prime Minister.

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I'd like to compare him to Ed Miliband.

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He explained to his party who he was.

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He said that he was not here to defend wealth but to share it.

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Are there any signs that this Westminster Government

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is redistributing wealth?

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I don't see many signs of that, to be honest.

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Social capital has slowed down in the UK

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as it has in the United States.

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So, we seem to be stuck in terms of social capital

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and people improving themselves.

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What about the 2 million people that have come out of tax altogether?

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Haven't they been given something by this Government?

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They perhaps have, thanks to the Liberal Democrats.

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It's a coalition government.

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Well, when it suits them!

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The UK and Welsh Government have been going head-to-head this week,

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our Political Editor Betsan Powys was listening to the debate

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and I asked her earlier to paint a picture of how things look there.

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The High Court is a wonderful place with a high roof

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and an expensive carpet, expensive statues and so on.

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You have five judges facing 16 barristers and lawyers

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and an audience of some with interest,

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but the others were tourists looking confused when they left.

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And some experts here and there, who were listening to this debate,

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which was very detailed and technical,

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talking about lords dancing on the head of a pib.

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One Lord pressed forward and said even if the Secretary of State

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had the right and he wanted to use that right.

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If you were to deal with tattoo parlours in Swansea

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and he couldn't think of another exotic place,

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would you do that?

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It was quite a performance very detailed at the same time.

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It seemed surreal to me, we are talking about bye-laws

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to do with toilets in Rhyl and tattoo Parlours in obscure places.

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Why is the UK Government taking this so serious?

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Can't they leave it?

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That's why they have these occasional bits of conflict

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but the point being made very clearly with thick files

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and post-it notes everywhere, was that in the opinion

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of the Welsh Secretary and the Auditor General

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that it was all-important that the boundaries of devolution

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are set as clearly as possible.

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Perhaps it doesn't matter about tattoo parlours

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but perhaps next time it would matter about something different.

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The thing that surprised me was that the Welsh barrister was there

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as well as the UK barristers, but also representatives

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of the Northern Ireland Government, why was that?

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There was a technical point there.

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They felt if this was relevant to devolution in Wales,

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the same point apply in Northern Ireland,

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it was important that they gave their side of the argument,

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as they might be in the dock next time

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and it's possible we might be there again.

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The suggestion today is that the Attorney-General

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talks about the language equality measure.

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We could be there again.

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What hope is there for the organ donation measure?

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That won't go through without the same kind of trouble.

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And we criticised the first bill for being so easy.

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It seems unambitious but it is in trouble.

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It is difficult to imagine they will not look at that in great detail.

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-Betsan there with her tattoos.

-No chance!

-Glad to hear it!

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Suzy Davies, as a lawyer, is it disappointing to you

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that judges in the High Court determine where power exists here?

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To be honest, no. I'm not an expert on the constitution.

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What's important to me is that if we're going to see laws

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coming out of the Assembly, they have to be made properly.

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If there are other opinions they have to be tested in court.

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And that's what is happening here. There is more than one opinion.

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Was there anyway they could have come to agreement before coming to court?

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I think if there is a problem,

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it's the best way to deal with it, by changing the law

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to make sure that the problems are sorted.

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Hywel, they told people at the time of the referendum that the old order

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would go and there would be a simple system where everybody understood.

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And now we have one law at the High Court

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and talk of perhaps another one going there.

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This referendum and the Government of Wales Act

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was suppose to solve things, wasn't it?

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That's what we thought but since then

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we've had a new Welsh Secretary.

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I don't know how much influence he had on this case.

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I know David very well and I know he is a very careful lawyer

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and perhaps he's pinpointed a weakness in the settlement

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between London and Cardiff.

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There's also a weakness in the same way between Barcelona and Madrid.

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This is the kind of mess we are in. But we didn't explain this mess.

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The language Equality Act,

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the problem being raised by the UK Government

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is that the Assembly can legislate on the Welsh Language

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but as the act talks about the English language,

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is beyond their remit.

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This is ridiculous isn't it,

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it doesn't change anything in the English language.

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I would agree. There was an argue with committee members about this

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and David was a member of the committee

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that passed the right to Cardiff to legislate on language.

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It was a hot topic then and it is an open question

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because of the incomplete settlement we have.

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And looking from the outside, Martin,

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do you think this is a political game?

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Would this happen if the governments were the same colour in both places?

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It's possible but most people looking at the situation

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would think the important point is whether the Welsh government

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acts in a way which is consistent with the law

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and the will of this Senedd.

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I think the legal technicalities are being solved,

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we need to know what the ethos of the law is that they are presenting.

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There's always this conflict,

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so what will the public make of that?

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To some extent, this could be of benefit.

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It's important that a more positive infrastructure is put in place

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and there is understanding on both sides

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about what is being presented from Cardiff

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and what needs to be protected in Westminster.

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Suzy, for people at home, hearing about these cuts

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and worry being every penny they have going out,

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Betsan Powys said there were 18 lawyers and barristers there.

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They don't come cheap.

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There are hundreds of thousands,

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possibly millions of people who are wondering about this.

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It's not going to make sense to the public, is it?

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That is why it is important to get it right the first time.

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If there is a problem with this, this is the chance to sort it out.

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If there are more general problems with the Welsh Government

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the Silk Commission has made the process of devolution much simpler,

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so if we have problems with the legislation

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we need to sort it out now.

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And we need to see if there are problems in future

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because we don't want to spend much money on mistakes in future.

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That's fair enough, isn't it?

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A precedent has to be set here and the Welsh Government has to be sure

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that the UK Government isn't trying to gain power by the back door.

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The principle has to be set

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but it hasn't been completely agreed in the first place.

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This is what happened, by the way,

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when the Madrid decided it had the last word

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over the Catalan Government.

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As a result, 1.5 million people were out on the streets of Barcelona

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calling for independence, so the principle is very important.

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-Can you see that happening in Wales?

-I'd be marching in the park.

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Suzy, how do you get a system to stop this happening?

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We know that the Wales Office has been flagging these problems

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to the Welsh Government.

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They have been saying that there will be a problem

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and the Welsh Government has been saying things will be fine.

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Some kind of civilised relationship is needed between the Wales office

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and the Welsh Government to stop things like this from happening.

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If there are two opinions on the law they have to be tested in court.

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It's not just a matter of some kind of cosy agreement.

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The law has to be established.

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If there is more than one opinion on the law,

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then they have to go to court again.

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But would it have been possible for the Welsh Office to say

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they were happy to yield these powers they had

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and there wouldn't be a problem.

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But they can't just agree to make things easier for people.

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If the government has decided, then so be it.

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But what if they want to keep this power?

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But that is the situation with the law at the moment.

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It's not a political matter.

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It's a matter of law and it's important not to mix the two.

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-Who will win, Martin? Any idea?

-I don't know.

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The barristers will win in the end with their fees.

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-Would you agree with that?

-A fool only goes to court.

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I think it's much better to take the political route

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but I'm a politician so I would say that.

0:23:350:23:39

Thanks for joining us. The ruling will happen at the end of the a week.

0:23:390:23:44

I think there will be a delay. I think the debate will continue

0:23:440:23:48

and constitutional theorist also absolutely love it.

0:23:480:23:54

Thanks to all of you. That's all for tonight.

0:23:540:23:58

We'll be back at the same time next week. Until then, good night.

0:23:580:24:02

Good night.

0:24:020:24:04

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