23/01/2013 CF99


23/01/2013

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Transcript


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Hello and welcome to CF99 live from Cardiff Bay.

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On tonight's programme:

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In or out?

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That's the choice if David Cameron gets his referendum on Europe.

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I think agriculture will lose out if we leave Europe.

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A lot of money comes into Britain and agriculture from Europe.

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The chaos over banks.

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The parties compete to have their say on loans to small businesses.

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I wouldn't say this is a conspiracy.

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It's great to see three parties in Wales ready to do this.

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Having battled through the snow to join us is Baroness Eluned Morgan,

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the former Labour MEP.

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The political commentator Gareth Hughes

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and in our Westminster studio is the Conservative MP, Glyn Davies.

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Welcome, bienvenue and willkommen to you three.

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That brings us to David Cameron's big speech on the future

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of Britain's relationship with the EU.

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He promised there would be a referendum to decide

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whether we should remain within the EU or not.

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That only if the Tories win the next election

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and after a period of consultation.

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But what will influence the vote if there is one?

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Aled ap Dafydd has been asking the public.

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1975.

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David Essex was at his height and the question was black and white.

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In or out of the European Union?

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Two thirds of us were in favour of sticking

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with our Continental cousins.

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But jump forward 40 years

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and David Cameron is resurrecting the referendum.

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This is the bargain.

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The next Conservative manifesto in 2015,

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will ask for a mandate from the British people

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for a Conservative government to negotiate

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a new settlement with our European partners in the next parliament.

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It will be a relationship with the single market at its heart.

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And when we have negotiated that new settlement we will give

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the British people a referendum with a very simple in or out choice.

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To those who follow the history of the European debate,

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the hysteria which rears its head every now and then hides the facts.

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Europe isn't the question but rather the Prime Minister's appeal.

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One of the reasons why Europe has come back to the forefront recently

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is that David Cameron's leadership of the Conservative party

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is under scrutiny.

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He has to respond to that.

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So we have to interpret what's happened today in that context.

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He is responding, not so much to the European question,

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although he is doing that, but responding to those

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within the Conservative party who are sceptical of his leadership.

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On this farm in Carmarthenshire

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there is a definite opinion on Europe.

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Hello, Brian. How are you?

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-Let's go and see the cattle.

-Brilliant.

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European aid worth an average £15,000 a year

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to 16,000 farmers in Wales which keeps the agricultural industry

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on its feet.

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Brian Walters remembers the referendum in 1975

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and he voted in favour of Britain joining the European Union.

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That opinion has not changed.

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We would lose out in agriculture if we leave Europe.

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A lot of money comes into Britain from Europe and into agriculture.

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Maybe it isn't shared fairly

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but money is coming in and that helps rural economy.

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Emyr Owen wasn't even born in 1975.

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But he has seen the free market interfering

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in the growth of the family business.

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The ability to do business with half a billion customers

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is one of the common market's attributes

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but for Owens Logistics haulage business

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that is the biggest problem as well.

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They spend £12 million a year on diesel and lose out on work

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when lorries enter Britain full of cheaper diesel

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and offer a better price for similar work.

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The biggest problem we have is the competition

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from over in Europe and the big companies that come over

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and do all the work throughout the week and then go back to Europe

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at the weekend.

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The costs they pay are much less than what we have to pay.

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David Cameron's hope is to re-nationalise powers

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to make sure that the business world isn't obstructed by Europe.

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But Carwyn Jones harshly criticised the speech.

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When I go to other countries and look for investment

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from those countries, they know that we are a member of European Union.

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That's the market for them. The UK is too small, Wales is too small.

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What they want to know is if there is a way into the European market

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if we're in Wales. If that's not available they won't come here.

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There were 14 months between the promise

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and delivery of the referendum. It is quite a longer game this time.

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Questions are yet to be answered.

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In 1975, it was said that the debate would be settled once and for all.

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But the campaigning is just about to start again.

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I have never seen Margaret Thatcher in such a jumper!

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Glyn Davies, back in October,

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you said that a referendum in-or-out would be a huge mistake.

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Have you changed your mind?

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I think things have changed.

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For the first time now, a British prime minister has said

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if the British people will want to leave the European Union

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he is ready to do that.

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The problem for me before was

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I did not believe that people were ready to leave.

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If people want to leave, the Prime Minister will have to do that.

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For the first time David Cameron has said he is ready to do that.

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But isn't it strange that he says he will hold a referendum

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and if he wins it he'll be in discussions

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with other European Union members,

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and then he says he will fight for staying in Europe.

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What'll happen if the other European members aren't ready to do the deal?

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Will he be campaigning for a no vote?

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What David Cameron knows is that the relationship

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between the European Union and the UK,

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it is more fragile now than it has ever been.

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He wants to renegotiate things, renegotiate the relationship.

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After that, David Cameron thinks it is important

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we remain in the European Union.

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I am not sure myself which way I will vote yet.

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I remember the last time, I was against.

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I also remember when the campaign started in 1975

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the majority of people wanted to leave.

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But when the vote came, the majority voted to remain in.

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I expect the same thing this time.

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If I can pick up on that with you, Gareth,

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because you remember 1975 like me and Glyn but Eluned doesn't.

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What Harold Wilson did was buy time.

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He bought time before the referendum.

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Groups like the CBI went out and warned about the dangers.

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We're seeing the same thing again. Is it the same tactic?

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I think that is one big difference between 1975 and now.

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The fact is, there was a majority in the Labour Party back then

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that wanted to stay in the Union

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and the Conservative Party wanted to stay in.

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The campaign wasn't very fair for those who wanted out.

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I think that is the difference this time.

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Half of the Conservative party want to leave.

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Whatever the Cameron says,

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there is strong element within the members who want to leave.

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That makes a difference to the dynamics.

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I think we have had two opinion polls that suggest

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for the first time in years,

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when the question was asked how would you vote in a referendum,

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already there's a suggestion that remaining in the Union

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is leading the way.

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Yes, I think that will increase as the campaign goes on.

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But what I think is very sobering from what was said today

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is the fact that this uncertainty will effect on our economy.

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Carwyn Jones is correct.

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Who would want their headquarters in Wales or England or in Scotland

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if they think there's any possibility

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they won't be able to be in that free market.

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Eluned, you also move in the business circles

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as well as being a member of the Lords.

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What are you hearing from business people?

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As we heard from Mr Owens from Owens Logistics,

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there are business people who aren't happy

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with how Europe affects business.

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There are. What people haven't heard

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is this debate about the market.

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This is the biggest market we have. This is where our exports go.

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We export more to Ireland than we do to Russia, China and India combined.

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The Eurosceptics within the Conservative Party like that market.

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They will say, "that is what we were in favour of in 1975."

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What they are not in favour of are these laws about health and safety,

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workers' rights, this interference in matters

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that should be British matters.

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But what we have here is a club. There are rules in the club.

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What you can't do if you join a club is choose which parts of the club

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you want to be part of.

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That is the problem here.

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He has started a discussion now with a gun to the heads

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of the people he wants to negotiate with within the EU.

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He has said do what we want or we leave.

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That isn't something that will attract people

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in the Europe Union to his side.

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Isn't there a debate, if he worded it differently,

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some countries are within the Eurozone

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and there are countries in the Union that aren't.

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It makes sense for us to have a discussion at the different rules

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for the two sets of countries rather than just exceptions for Britain.

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I think everyone is quite happy to see improvements

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in the way the European Union works.

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What was interesting today

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was the sort of thing he was talking about were very indistinct,

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there was nothing concrete or definite

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within what he was talking about.

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I don't think that anyone would disagree

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with the sort of things he was talking about.

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But, the question is, would everyone else within the European Union

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be happy for us to say, that part will benefit our economy.

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We are competing with these countries

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and they are not going to be happy to give parts

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and give us more in order to compete better than them.

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What will happen if Angela Merkel, whether France turned round

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and said, look you are outside the Eurozone

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we are happy to have different rules for those outside the eurozone,

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but no special rules for Britain.

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It is possible they will say that.

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But we have to remember that every party within the Eurozone

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will have to change their relationship with the EU

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because it is going to...

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..well, move closer to the Eurozone.

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That happens to every other party.

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If we do that, Britain has no problem with that.

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I think Angela Merkel will in the end will be ready to see

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the relationship changing.

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Whether the change is enough for the British people to vote to remain,

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we will have to see.

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Another point is, Gareth says that more than half of Conservative MPs

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want to leave Europe. I don't think that is true at all.

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Half aren't happy with the relationship now.

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They think the European Union is interfering in everything.

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That is true.

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But I don't think that 50 percent want out.

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I don't think that will happen when the referendum comes.

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But what you have to remember is we're not talking about one country

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saying, yes you can have that deal.

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Every one of the 26 countries has to agree on this.

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I don't see that's possible in the next few years.

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We are coming up to the question of uncertainty.

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While this uncertainty continues nobody will be investing in Britain.

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Let's discuss what Ed Miliband should do.

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Ed Miliband has withstood the temptation to jump in before Cameron.

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But will he have to say we have to have this vote?

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We have to settle this matter once and for all.

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In the long term,

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I think if you change something completely, you will have to.

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But I think the tactics of saying,

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we want to change things and if we don't have our way we are leaving.

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It's like a child saying if he can't have the ball, he is not playing.

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It is an appalling tactic

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if you are trying to have some kind of influence on the club.

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I think that is wrong.

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That is why Ed Miliband is going to be wise by saying, no,

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we're not going to say that now.

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We want changes but I am not going to threaten to leave the Union.

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That's the correct tactic here.

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Is the lesson here, if the UK just like many European countries

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had held regular votes before treaties like Maastrich came in,

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we would not be in this situation.

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What has happened, our frustrations because people have seen other

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countries like Ireland, Denmark and so one getting these referendums.

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I don't think that makes sense.

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What we have, the type of way we vote in this country

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means that we elect leaders to make those decisions for us.

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In the long term, if we know what we are voting for

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maybe we will have to have a referendum.

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It makes no sense to offer that at the moment

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and to have this time of uncertainty.

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Many thanks to you.

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You know how it is, you wait a long time for an announcement

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on help for small businesses and then three come all at once.

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Yes, three announcements about making it easier for businesses

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to borrow money within days of each other.

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Coincidence or competition?

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The government were out of the blocks first.

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There will be reviewed chaired by a prominent Conservative member.

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There are always stories about how difficult it is

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for small businesses in Wales to have money

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to develop and grow business.

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But one of the things we don't have are facts.

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Appointing Dylan Jones Evans has surprised some.

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But there are no problems for his party, according to him.

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The Welsh government has announced that this review will take place

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but it will take about nine months before we will know

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the conclusions of that report.

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Small businesses want support now.

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The Welsh Government has to act now.

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At the beginning of the week the Conservatives launched

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their idea, six regional banks to lend money to businesses.

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At the same time Plaid Cymru were asking for a new bank,

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a Welsh bank, to do similar work.

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Who would have thought we wanted to annoy the Tories.

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Our ideas come from work we have done over the last few months

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and we are trying to perfect those ideas to have definite ideas

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in place through our economic commission.

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They had asked me this back in November to chair this review.

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But as you understand, sometimes the civil service machine

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moves very slow.

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It is more of a cock up than a conspiracy,

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the fact that in the same week we had the government coming out

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with the announcement that we were having this review,

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the Conservatives coming out with their West Wales policy.

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That was supposed to be announced the week before.

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Then, Plaid Cymru came back to say they came up with this in 2009.

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There is something funny about all the parties competing.

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This must a good thing that three parties

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have seen there is a problem and tried to come out with ideas

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to answer that problem.

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I think everyone has recognised that there is a problem.

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All the plans make sense.

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Everyone acknowledges the problem exists.

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We should try to work something out between us

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and get the best deal for the situation.

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It is also interesting that there are sources available

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which are already available from the Welsh Government.

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I think there are £70m available from different sources.

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It is clear that that is there, but it has to work better.

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It is not working as it should at the moment.

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Andrew R T Davies said during Prime Minister's Questions,

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this is our policy, we are giving it to you.

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We are not rowing over this. They are just ideas

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and we could reach a consensus on it, is that possible?

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I'm not sure about that.

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I haven't gone through the details,

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but every party in the Assembly knows what the problem is.

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Small businesses are not able to get funding

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to invest in their businesses.

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They are looking at new ideas.

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If we can work together,

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then we need to talk to the other parties to get a consensus.

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If it is successful, then I would welcome that.

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I do not mind which party has the ideas,

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I just want it to work.

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I'm not sure about consensus.

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I don't think that they are right.

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If the banks, who are making money out of investment

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aren't giving money to small businesses, we have to ask why.

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They don't think there's profit to be made from this.

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Public money will be given to small businesses to keep them going.

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That doesn't make sense.

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The argument, as I understand it, is that the banks are not lending

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because of the rules.

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The reason they are not borrowing

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is because they do not believe the economy will grow soon.

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Without a growth in the economy, then this venture will fail.

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Glyn, you wanted to say something.

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Everyone would like to see the economy growing.

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We know the problems that have faced the coalition since we came in.

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It is very difficult and everyone are doing their best.

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You cannot say the economy will grow,

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we have to look at ideas which will work in the economy

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as it is in Wales.

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That is what every party is trying to do, and I welcome that.

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Can you explain to Gareth what I tried to explain,

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that it is not the business plans that are at fault?

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The banks have been directed to balance their accounts.

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They didn't have enough money when the recession came.

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They're being encouraged to build-up their funds.

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Until they get to the point where they are safe

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and the Government is happy,

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then you have the problem of contradictory lines

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coming from the Government.

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They gave money to the banks to lend,

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but somehow that money isn't being lent?

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It is not being lent for all kinds of reasons.

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I think one reason is they don't believe the economy will grow.

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When you have the situation where the economy is flat lining, then,

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They haven't got any faith in these businesses.

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I believe, you may be wasting public money with a scheme like this.

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Glyn, in your constituency,

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do you have businesses coming to you telling you they have plans,

0:21:390:21:45

but no-one is prepared to give them money?

0:21:450:21:48

You can see that in public life, this has been happening for years.

0:21:480:21:53

But that isn't more true so today

0:21:530:21:58

than ever before, but we have to see what happens.

0:21:580:22:05

Unemployment has gone down again today.

0:22:050:22:09

A lot of people can see that businesses are growing

0:22:090:22:14

and that is what is happening on the ground.

0:22:140:22:21

A lot of businesses get money, but we are trying to improve things.

0:22:210:22:28

Every party in the Assembly wants to improve the situation again.

0:22:280:22:34

Are we going to see a new Welsh Bank?

0:22:340:22:38

We will have to wait and see what this review comes up with.

0:22:380:22:42

I hope that we can reach a consensus,

0:22:420:22:45

because it seems every party wants to take action.

0:22:450:22:49

There is a responsibility on the Assembly.

0:22:490:22:54

The Welsh Assembly needs to invest and that is what is needed.

0:22:540:22:59

If we can help the private sector to grow, then that is the way forward.

0:22:590:23:05

There was a Welsh Bank, Julian Hodge established it.

0:23:050:23:11

That was very conservative when dealing with businesses.

0:23:110:23:15

You have to be careful that you don't establish a bank

0:23:150:23:18

and that it takes the same action as current banks.

0:23:180:23:21

It's going to look on the balance sheet

0:23:210:23:24

and say it's not sure whether to invest.

0:23:240:23:27

But banks that use public money will take a different stance?

0:23:270:23:32

I don't think so. They shouldn't.

0:23:320:23:35

If they're going to waste taxpayers' money,

0:23:350:23:38

then we are throwing money away.

0:23:380:23:41

As a voter, I wouldn't be very happy with that.

0:23:410:23:47

I thought you were from Bangor, not Ceredigion!

0:23:470:23:53

That is all for tonight. Thank you to our panel members.

0:23:530:23:56

I will be back at the same time next week.

0:23:560:24:01

For now, thank you for watching and good night.

0:24:010:24:07

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