16/07/2012 Daily Politics


16/07/2012

Jo Coburn with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

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David Cameron and Nick Clegg put on a show of unity as the two leaders

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announce a �9 billion investment in Britain's rail network, but work

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won't start for at least two years and Labour say rail passengers face

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higher fares to pay for it. Preparations for the Olympics reach

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fever pitch as the first of thousands of athletes arrive in the

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UK. Boris Johnson says London is ready.

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Should foreign students studying in the UK be counted in our

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immigration figures? With net immigration 250,000 per year, we'll

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debate the issue of student visas. And why are we having such a

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miserable summer? And can we blame politicians for

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the endless rain? We have been in this long, long recession and then

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you have the worst weather on history.

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No descent summer Nothing to lift you out of the mire.

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What a miserable pair! We will try and cheer you up.

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All that in the next hour. And with us for the whole programme today is

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the cross-bench peer, Jo Valentine, who runs the business organisation

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London First. Welcome to the Daily Politics. So, with just under two

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weeks to go, is Britain ready for the Olympics? Boris Johnson

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certainly thinks so. This is about sport. It is about achievement and

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effort and competition and supreme human endeavour and I think that's

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why people are so excited and what's going on now, you speak

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about the curtain up moment, actually we are at the last moment

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before curtain up and there is a bit of pre-curtain up for things to

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talk about. When the opening ceremony ceremony begins I think a

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lot of these issues that we are discussing will melt away and I

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think people's excitement at seeing London transform looking wonderful

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at the moment and in the eye of the world, we will be great indeed.

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Boris Johnson talking to BBC Breakfast today.

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Do you agree? Is London ready? Will it be all right on the night?

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can't predict, but we are doing as much as we can to prepare for it. I

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think it will be great and I think the mayor and Transport for London

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have been putting in rehearsal time and thinking through the issues,

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but none of us us knows how it is going to be.

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Do you think there has been a sense of shambles because of the recent

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security and transport problems with the M4 and GS4 on security?

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have to say, I do agree with Boris. I think we are at the pre-curtain

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up, nervous phase and there is little blips and the little blips

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will continue, but we need o keep going and and keep keep preparing.

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We can't do anything about the weather! Boris Johnson says it is

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his mission to ensure the �9 billion spent on the Games has a

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lasting effect. That's crucial, isn't it? Not just in terms of

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legacy, but how it will impact on Britain? And that's a long game

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really. We have seen this huge regeneration of the East End of

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London. We need to make sure that the soft things, the sport, we all

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keep enthuse astic about sport, we get the jobs in the jobs in the

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East End and the buildings and making sure the park bleeds out

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into the wider East End area. Are you confident that will happen?

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Talking about �9 billion, that's the same as the rail upgrade the

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Government announced today? It is difficult to put a measure on these

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thix. What -- things, what the Olympics will do for London, nobody

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knows until we are past past it. It is tremendous that we have this

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iconic event. Let's hope it puts London on the map and we have got

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an opportunity to take advantage of All right. It is time for our quiz.

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The question for today is, what piece of music has David Cameron

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said he would like to see as England's National Anthem? Is it

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Jerusalem, Land of Hope and Glory or Heaven Knows I'm Miserable Now

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by the Smiths? Yes Yes! Very appropriate!

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We'll give you the correct answer at the end of the show. Now after

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their troublesome tangle over Lords reform, the Prime Minister and his

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Lib Dem deputy are putting on a show of unity today. Pushing their

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plans for Britain's rail network and claiming it is evidence the

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coalition can deliver. Nick Clegg and David Cameron say it is the

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biggest investment snt railways since the age of steam. �9 billion

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will be invested over a five year period. That includes �5 billion

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for the completion of current schemes such as Crossrail and

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Thameslink and �4.2 billion for new projects. This will include a

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programme of major electification. Over 850 miles of electified track

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will be added to the network including the line from we had ford

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to to -- Bedford to Sheffield. There will be upgrade work, in

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particular the East Coast main line from London to Leeds and Newcastle.

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However, none of the building work will start until 2014. It is

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thought the plans could mean big fare rises for passengers. Fares

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are due to go up by 3% more than inflation in January and the same

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the following year. Speaking this morning, David Cameron and Nick

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Clegg said this plan was an essential part of the Government's

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overall programme. This is just one as aspect of the

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long-term mission of this coalition Government. The coalition has come

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into question. Some asking whether it has real momentum for the rest

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of the Parliament and others asking if it should end? I am I am more

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committed to making this coalition Government today than I was in May

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2010 when Nick Clegg and I formed this Government. Above all, that

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means accepting that there are no simple, quick, easy short cuts

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which secure instant political popularity. In fact, something that

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we have accepted in Government at this time we need to put short-term

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popularity to one side and get on with making the big, long-term

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reforms and changes that this country so des so desperately needs.

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Joining us from Leeds is Norman Baker. Here in the studio is the

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Shadow Transport Secretary, Maria Eagle and Stephen Joseph.

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Norman Baker, it is not a stimulus for now, is it? That is a bit

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churlish. We have five year plans for the railways and the present

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plan ends in 2014. There has been a massive investment

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programme going on in the railways. Everything that was on the stocks

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has been taken forward and more besides. This is another batch of

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investment programmes for the railways. We have got the biggest

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investment programme going on now than we have had since the 19th

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century. I suppose what passengers will say,

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if it is not starting or they are not going to see the benefits for a

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few years, but they are going to have to pay for it upfront, how

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much will a passenger expect to pay in fare rises?

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A lot of investment is going on now. There has been investment decisions

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taken in the autumn statement and the in 2010 Spending Review. This

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is the latest of the of the announcements... Sure, but how much

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will fares go up? We had ten years of above inflation rises under the

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last Labour Government. We inherited a position where Network

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Rail was inefficient and what we are doing is driving the

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inefficiencies out of Network Rail by 30% and that will release money

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which can be reinvested in the railways and keep fares down.

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Let's come to the breakdown. Can you tell us How much will come from

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the taxpayer? We know it will come from that and how much from the

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efficiency savings you have just set out? Well, that will be a

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matter for for negotiation negotiation between the Department

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of Transport and the Treasury. We need to concentrate on today's news.

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�9.4 billion. Electification of a line to Wales. We inherited a

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position where Wales is the only country apart from Albania that had

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no electified railway. This is major stuff and people should be

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pleased with the investment today. There will be a lot of people

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people pleased in the industry because they have been enkujing

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encouraging to do the improvements and many experts think they are

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more important than HS 2. Will that still be necessary? Of course. We

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need HS 2 and the investment in the investment in the existing

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infrastructure.. HS 2 is necessary. We have been successful and the

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last 15 years, the country has been successful in driving up passenger

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numbers, 64% up since 1997 that we have to get more capacity. That's

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good news. Norman Baker stay with us. What's

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your response, Stephen Joseph. Record numbers of passengers, can't

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get from Norman Baker the rises that passengers will expect. It is

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clear that as Norman said there, is good news from the point of view of

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investment. We wanted to see this electification and the other

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investments happen, but you are right to say that it seems to be

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coming on the back of large fare rises and if you look in the small

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print they talk about more fare rises beyond even the ones planned

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of RPI plus 3% for each of the next three years, that's a large fares

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increase and it contrasts with the way in which other countries do

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this which is they regard this as investment as a national asset and

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we would want to see this investment coming from taxpayer

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funding and from borrowing rather than having even more swinging

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fares rises. The Government will say there isn't

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the money. Just teen Greening said it is not -- Justine greening said

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it is not a money tree. On the issue of State owned rail companies

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bidding to win the the franchises is it right they should get the

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franchises and use the money to to plough into their railways? More

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investment for the network, without Government money being provided and

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the better service for the passenger. The pay the franchise is

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let is the key point rather than who gets a franchise for each

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individual train company. Maria Eagle, you must be pleased.

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These are major upgrades that are going on. Good news for Wales and

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the north? I am pleased there is investment for the railways, but

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let's be clear about this. Half of the money that is being announced

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today is to complete programmes that have been started like

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Thameslink and Crossrail. You are saying it is an old

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announcement? There is a lot of reannouncements and a lot of spin.

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The announcements that aren't completing old arrangements were

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announced mainly by Andrew Adonis in 2009 2009, and cut by the

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current Government and have been announced into the next Parliament.

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You are pleased that it is going to happen? Yes, but let's not be

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fooled by the charade we have seen today which is more about covering

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up splits in the coalition than it has been about improving the

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railways. No spending until after 2014, that does not help get jobs

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and growth now. Labour started some of these,

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announced some of the upgrades. Where would Labour get the money

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from if they weren't putting up fares? Taxpayers, what the current

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Government are doing, what the current Government is doing, �4

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billion goes into the railway, what the current Government is doing, is

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giving a postdated cheque, it is allowing Network Rail to borrow

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against assets. A lot of the money will be coming from borrowing by

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Network Rail. Would you support that? That's

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something that has been used in the past. It is unsustainable in the

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long-term and it is a question that you have to ask the Government, how

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much more money are they going to allow Network Rail to borrow? How

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much more are they going to be allowed to borrow? Fares going up

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is a contentious issues, but if the upgrades produce increased

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efficiency and higher speed trains, will it be worth it? The fare

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argument is one if you are travelling on the trains, you want

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to see the quality has gone up. There is an impossible balance

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which we have been touching on between taxpayers, borrowing and

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fares. Somebody has to pay for it and we are in an up happy position

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with the debt we have got in the UK. On the borrowing, I am pro

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borrowing. If you know you are likely to get economic benefit out

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of the investment then I think it needs prioritisation and one could

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go further and ring-fence borrowing into that investment.

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Can you, if you want to change the structure of the network, can you

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rule out nationalising the railways? We are looking at trying

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to get better value for money for the money that goes into the

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railways. There is no doubt the fragmented structure that we have

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is leading to extra costs up to �1.2 billion a year extra costs. We

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have not come to a final decision about how to get better value for

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money, but saying you are not going to look at the structure of the

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industry is ignoring a big elephant in the room. We need to make sure

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we get to get better value out of the money that's been spent.

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It would be unrealistic, wouldn't it, to imagine you could have the

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improved railways without passengers and taxpayers coughing

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up for it? Well, I think, you need to have taxpayers coughing up

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upfront, but there is a concern which London First shares which is

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London in the South East in particular and actually the country

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generally, has the highest fares in Europe and that the fares rises

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that have been talked about will actually add to that. So there

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comes a point where there is a competitiveness between London and

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other world cities about the fares that are coming. We argue actually

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that some of this investment will end up saving money and that some

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of the measures that have been talked about are reducing the

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contribution that taxpayers already make to the network. This is about

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investment and other countries as I say, regard that as something which

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the State pays for because there are wider benefits from it even non

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users benefit from having a good That press conference with David

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Cameron and Nick Clegg seemed to be more about, a statement about the

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coalition. It works very well, across departments, between parties,

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very well. So you are not at your colleagues throats about Lords

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reform? Of course not. We are two different parties of course but we

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work very well together, rather better than the last coalition

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between the Blairites and the Brown writes, I might say. Thank you.

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What does the 2011 census tell us about England and Wales? In a

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moment we will be finding out as the Office for National Statistics

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has just published the data. But why do we need to bother with one

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at all? Here's a reminder from 1951, with some graphics that we can only

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dream of producing on the Daily Politics.

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It is 20 years since we had a census and high time we had some

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up-to-date facts about ourselves! For instance, how many men of

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there? How many women? How old? What do we do for a living? So we

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are having a Stocktake. Reform is left for each household, and the

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head of the house is responsible for thrilling it in. Take your time

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and be sure to give the right answer -- for a filling it in. If

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in doubt, ask the person who does the form for his secrecy. Use the

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technical name for your job. If you are not sure, ask your employee at.

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See that someone is at home to handed over on Monday, April 9th.

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It is strictly confidential and your answers will draw a picture of

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the nation and its needs. How times have changed!

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I am joined now by Pete Benton, who is programme director from the

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Office for National Statistics. He was also deputy director of the

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2011 census. How many people are living in England and Wales? 56.1

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million people, the growth of about 7% since the last census. It is

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actually the biggest growth we have seen since we started doing them in

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1801. Is that surprising was that it is slightly more than we had

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estimated previously but only slightly, it is broadly in line

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with what we expected for stocks that that might have jumped high

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enough... We have been estimating the impact

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of migration so we are broadly in line. One in six of us are over 65

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now. So nothing to look forward to. Can you tell us anything about the

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immigration patterns in the last ten years? The detail will come up

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later in the year. We are publishing Dijk breakdown of

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nationally and by local authority - - publishing the breakdown. There

:18:59.:19:03.

are half-a-million more people living in England and Wales than

:19:03.:19:09.

suggested, this has been suggested. Do you expect that? It is very hard

:19:09.:19:15.

to measure and that is why we do a censor's once every ten years.

:19:15.:19:18.

Roughly half of the growth is probably due to migration and the

:19:18.:19:25.

other half is natural change. It is a mixed picture. How useful is this

:19:25.:19:32.

information? Absolutely critical. How much local authorities get to

:19:32.:19:36.

provide public services, how much the health service gets, it is

:19:36.:19:41.

obviously open to question but it is very helpful as a basic starting

:19:41.:19:46.

point. It would be very helpful if we had net migration statistics,

:19:46.:19:51.

and then we could have a factual argument about the net migration

:19:51.:19:55.

target. They don't measure one half of the target so I don't understand

:19:55.:20:03.

that. Are those figures possible to get? More detail later in the years.

:20:03.:20:07.

The census will not tell us the ins and outs. It measures the

:20:08.:20:11.

population now and we need to piece together what that means about the

:20:11.:20:17.

change. Do you think we still need to have a census? Is it something

:20:17.:20:22.

we need to continue to have? Absolutely. It is helpful across a

:20:22.:20:28.

whole range of public services. is a massive exercise, isn't it.

:20:28.:20:37.

sent out 23 million forms last year. We had 35,000 field staff. We have

:20:37.:20:40.

captured and process the data and we had billions of data items

:20:40.:20:46.

literally. Two billion keys were pressed back operators. To get the

:20:46.:20:52.

information out in 50 runs is a huge achievement. A people have a

:20:52.:20:57.

legal obligation to Phil Lane reforms. Yes, and 19 out of 20

:20:57.:21:04.

people did. -- people have a legal obligation to fill out the forms.

:21:04.:21:10.

Response rates were fantastic in 2011. How will we do it in the

:21:10.:21:15.

future? Every time we do a sense as we take a look at the best way to

:21:15.:21:21.

do it. I read a review in 2003. We are in the middle of the review for

:21:21.:21:25.

the future. It is too soon to say but we are looking at whether we

:21:25.:21:29.

can use information that is already collected.

:21:29.:21:32.

If you are a non-EU student, paying thousands of pounds for the

:21:33.:21:35.

privilege of studying at one of our universities, should you be classed

:21:36.:21:40.

as an immigrant? At the moment you are, but the government is coming

:21:40.:21:42.

under increasing pressure to exclude them from the net inward

:21:42.:21:46.

migration totals. Neat way of earning billions of pounds from

:21:46.:21:56.
:21:56.:22:02.

foreign scholars, or fiddling the Graduation day at the London School

:22:02.:22:06.

of Economics. They have come from all over the world for this moment

:22:06.:22:11.

and for many it is a proud finale for their time in the UK, but if

:22:11.:22:15.

you have spent years studying in this country, are you a visitor at

:22:15.:22:20.

or immigrant? The official answer is immigrant but it might depend on

:22:20.:22:25.

who you talk to. Rumour has it Downing Street is considering

:22:25.:22:30.

taking a non-EU students out of the Immigration totals. Business and

:22:30.:22:34.

education are for it, the Home Office, dead against. They say it

:22:34.:22:38.

would be fiddling the figures. Funnily enough you would think the

:22:38.:22:42.

Home Office would be keen. The government wants their inward

:22:42.:22:51.

migration to fall below 100,000. It is currently 250,000. 290,000 non-

:22:51.:22:58.

EU students in the UK. Students come here for one or two or three

:22:58.:23:03.

years. We know from figures, from studies at a Home Office have done,

:23:03.:23:09.

that 20% of them never actually leave. The United Nations thinks

:23:09.:23:13.

that is immigration. Of course it is part of immigration and they

:23:13.:23:16.

should be part of the immigration figures and it would be absurd for

:23:16.:23:21.

that not to be. Maybe, but when universities and ministers in

:23:21.:23:25.

business and education are looking at is what overseas students bring

:23:25.:23:30.

to the party's. It is not just the funding they bring but the broader

:23:30.:23:35.

economic benefit in the UK, which is estimated at about �8 billion

:23:35.:23:41.

plan and him and set to increase. This is a major export industry.

:23:41.:23:46.

Those in favour of change say they are just after a level playing

:23:46.:23:51.

field with the British universities. If you come on a temporary basis to

:23:51.:23:57.

study and least, most people would say you are not a migrant, but

:23:57.:24:01.

sadly our compared today's don't see it that way. International

:24:01.:24:05.

students are definitely in the temporary camp. Australia and

:24:05.:24:09.

Canada and the US has been aggressive in marketing themselves

:24:09.:24:12.

to international students and they are pulling ahead and we are

:24:12.:24:17.

getting left behind. Even if that is true, is it a good enough reason

:24:17.:24:26.

for not including non-EU students in the figures? Those who just --

:24:26.:24:31.

suggests they shouldn't be a two categories. The vested interests,

:24:31.:24:36.

the universities who think it will keep foreign students away. It is

:24:36.:24:41.

not, frankly. If you look at those applying to come this year, it is

:24:41.:24:47.

9% up. Nothing about the immigration debate is simple.

:24:47.:24:54.

Perhaps one day, someone will offer a degree in it. Post grad of course.

:24:54.:24:58.

David Thompson reporting. Jo Valentine is still with us, and we

:24:58.:25:00.

have been joined by the Conservative backbench MP Mark

:25:00.:25:06.

Reckless. Jo Valentine, why do you think there is a move to take

:25:06.:25:10.

students out of the immigration statistics? It is rather confusing

:25:10.:25:14.

because they come for a certain length of time. Nobody comes them

:25:14.:25:22.

out so we don't really know what is going on. -- counts them out. The

:25:22.:25:26.

government meets to know when the students actually leave and at the

:25:26.:25:31.

moment they don't. We heard that 20% of the non-EU students they

:25:31.:25:36.

never leave. I don't believe we have accurate data on that. What do

:25:36.:25:42.

you say to that? 20 dissent is about right I think. How do you

:25:43.:25:49.

know? -- 20 dissent. We have a net migration survey and that is when

:25:50.:25:59.

the statistics are sourced. We do not know precisely the numbers

:25:59.:26:02.

because they do not say why they are leaving. But what the

:26:02.:26:06.

government is doing is taking action on the student rude and the

:26:06.:26:11.

family wrote and business visas, and overall pressing down on

:26:11.:26:16.

immigration. What would your response be if the government did

:26:16.:26:21.

decide to take non-EU students out of those figures? I think that

:26:21.:26:28.

would be a mistake. A do you think they will do that? I have spoken to

:26:28.:26:33.

Damian Green and I think he is closest to it. It would technically

:26:33.:26:37.

be difficult to do. The government has cut out a lot of the abuse of

:26:37.:26:43.

the student visa, so where we should be seeing big reductions in

:26:43.:26:50.

net migration is for the student shall all because of the work they

:26:50.:26:55.

government has done. This is a big export of hours. What damage does

:26:55.:27:02.

this do, restricting the number? Metropolis, it is about perception

:27:02.:27:08.

as much as anything -- the trouble is. We need to be seen as a

:27:08.:27:13.

welcoming country. We want good international students. We want

:27:13.:27:16.

those international students to come here to study and trade with

:27:16.:27:21.

us in the future and add to the cultural life. Anything which sends

:27:21.:27:25.

the message that we are not as welcome as we were for students,

:27:25.:27:29.

and indeed more than half of the current students are saying they

:27:29.:27:37.

would not recommend the UK as a place to come, that was an NUS dead

:27:37.:27:41.

-- survey, that is the last thing we want. You don't want to cut off

:27:41.:27:46.

the supply of foreign money coming into the country. This section is

:27:46.:27:51.

an issue. I would ask Jo Valentine not to talk down the UK in this

:27:51.:27:55.

area because I think the government has brought him some sensible

:27:55.:28:00.

reforms, but people are coming for a degree at a recognised university

:28:00.:28:04.

and they can do that. They will still be allowed to stay on if they

:28:04.:28:10.

get a graduate job paying 20,000 or more. No where else apart from

:28:10.:28:15.

Australia do you do that, where you come some way to university and you

:28:15.:28:20.

are allowed to join the labour market after you finish your degree.

:28:20.:28:24.

But there is a lot of anecdotal evidence from foreign students

:28:24.:28:28.

saying either they don't feel welcome all it is much difficult to

:28:28.:28:34.

come here. Even Vince Cable has sympathies lying in that direction.

:28:34.:28:38.

It should be more difficult to come here because under the previous

:28:38.:28:44.

government, it was a gaping hole in the immigration system. Vast

:28:44.:28:48.

numbers were coming, either not to study or to work rather than to

:28:48.:28:53.

study, so tightening that up and focusing on universities, I think

:28:53.:28:58.

that is the right policy. I think the Home Office data needs to be a

:28:58.:29:03.

lot smarter than it currently is. We cannot differentiate between a

:29:03.:29:10.

good student and a bogus student. We are getting 5% of the visitors

:29:10.:29:15.

of Chinese students as the rest of Europe. That is because we have a

:29:15.:29:20.

very clunky system which does not differentiate between somebody

:29:20.:29:23.

trying to disappear into the undergrowth and a high-spending to

:29:23.:29:29.

rest. A using a sledgehammer to crack a nut. We have our own border

:29:29.:29:36.

controls. I do not want the EU to take over our border controls. We

:29:36.:29:40.

hear from universities and business but I want to speak for my

:29:40.:29:45.

constituents, who feel that for too long, net immigration at 200,000 a

:29:45.:29:50.

year, they want to see it back to where it was when we had a

:29:50.:29:55.

Conservative government and I think we should keep that promise. Do you

:29:55.:30:00.

suppose the idea of a migration cap completely? The problem is we have

:30:00.:30:07.

free migration within Europe. The vast majority come from there. I

:30:07.:30:12.

respected government's desire to regulate migration but do we need

:30:12.:30:18.

to get cleverer at it, we need to get people who add value, and we

:30:18.:30:22.

will be getting a lot more income into the UK if we allow migration

:30:22.:30:28.

to come in at the current 250,000 level for the future. We July

:30:28.:30:36.

Britain to sign up to border-free control? I do not think that is

:30:36.:30:42.

practical. If they are trying to go to continental Europe, the Chinese,

:30:42.:30:47.

I hope they would just be applied once, and then behind the scenes we

:30:47.:30:51.

can see what documents are processed. I would like to see them

:30:51.:30:56.

able to apply in their own language other than English. Do you think

:30:56.:31:00.

the government is going to hit its net migration target of tens of

:31:00.:31:06.

thousands by the next election? I hope it will be. I think it may

:31:06.:31:10.

be possible. We want to see a significant reduction in the net

:31:10.:31:16.

migration figure in the next few quarters. We want to see the

:31:16.:31:19.

reduction in student visas come through to the net migration

:31:19.:31:24.

figures and we have to keep bearing down on all channels. I am

:31:24.:31:27.

concerned that has study work is open to any graduate but the

:31:27.:31:36.

government has done a lot of work But non-EU immigration is 250,000.

:31:36.:31:41.

If you took the students out of it, you might get closer? I am not sure

:31:42.:31:45.

if that's right because we are doing a lot to bring down the

:31:45.:31:48.

student numbers. Do you agree with the Home Office that it would be

:31:48.:31:52.

fiddling the figures if the Government did that? I don't think

:31:52.:31:55.

we should do it because it would be fiddling the figures, but the

:31:55.:31:59.

students are here for several years. Many of them stay on after they

:31:59.:32:05.

have finished their education. My constituents want to see the

:32:05.:32:08.

overall numbers reduced to tens of thousands a year and not hundreds

:32:08.:32:13.

and hundreds of thousands as we saw in the previous Government.

:32:13.:32:22.

Thank you very much. Even though Parliament breaks up

:32:22.:32:25.

for the summer tomorrow there's still a lot going on in the world

:32:25.:32:27.

of politics. Later today, the Treasury Select Committee is taking

:32:28.:32:30.

further evidence on the LIBOR fixing scandal, they'll hear from

:32:30.:32:33.

amongst others Lord Turner, who is head of the Financial Services

:32:33.:32:35.

Authority. On Tuesday, Nick Buckles, the Chief Executive of G4S can

:32:36.:32:39.

expect a rather uncomfortable time in front of the Home Affairs Select

:32:39.:32:42.

Committee, MPs will be grilling him to find out just where it went

:32:42.:32:46.

wrong recruiting security staff. There will be no rest for the

:32:46.:32:49.

coalition leadership when Parliament breaks up. Nick Clegg

:32:49.:32:52.

and David Cameron face a fraught summer trying to work out a

:32:52.:33:01.

compromise on Lords reform. Well no easy task! Joining me now are the

:33:01.:33:03.

Mirror's Kevin Maguire and Pippa Crerar from the Evening Standard.

:33:03.:33:06.

Welcome to both of you. Kevin Maguire, yes, we have got Lord

:33:06.:33:10.

Turner in front of the Treasury Select Committee. Is there going to

:33:10.:33:14.

be a vote on the make-up of the committee holding the banking

:33:14.:33:21.

inquiry and there will be noticeable absences? Yes. A former

:33:21.:33:24.

banker or she worked in a financial services industry and admitted they

:33:24.:33:29.

never got to grips with Bob Diamond and John Mann who led the charge

:33:29.:33:32.

all the way. There is a lot of noses which have been put out of

:33:32.:33:36.

join and public support within both the main political parties for

:33:36.:33:39.

widening who is on the commission. So it is a fractious committee at

:33:39.:33:43.

the moment. Will it do the job that's required?

:33:43.:33:48.

Well, what is that job? Nobody is sure. But if there is a row over

:33:48.:33:52.

the composition it will make its task for difficult and I am sure

:33:53.:33:58.

Andrew Tyrie and the others did this election with the best of

:33:58.:34:01.

intentions and involved other people, however, there is a big

:34:01.:34:06.

question mark against who is on and particularly who isn't. And who is

:34:07.:34:16.
:34:17.:34:17.

off. Pipa, what about this discrepancy

:34:17.:34:20.

with Theresa May and the Home Office and when they did know that

:34:20.:34:28.

they weren't going to get the 3 3,500 people? Boris Johnson let the

:34:28.:34:31.

cat out of the bag by suggesting that Theresa May may have known

:34:32.:34:35.

sooner than she admitted to. So we will be wanting to get to the

:34:35.:34:39.

bottom of that later today. It has been terrible for them. The one

:34:39.:34:43.

thing with the Olympics that has to be right in the public's minds is

:34:44.:34:48.

security and the problems with this are just really damaging top London,

:34:48.:34:52.

London's reputation and the coalition's reputation around the

:34:52.:34:56.

world and that's bad news. And it will have long reaching

:34:56.:34:59.

ramifications particularly as G4 are the private security firm who

:34:59.:35:04.

are up for contract, I think it is nine private prisons and several

:35:04.:35:10.

police forces, they have dn dropped by by -- been dropped by Surrey

:35:10.:35:13.

Police and West Midlands could follow suit.

:35:13.:35:18.

What about it being described by Jeremy Hunt that it was a hitch and

:35:18.:35:23.

mistakes were made. Do you think that's an underat the same time? --

:35:23.:35:27.

under statement? The soldiers will be there to show you are you are

:35:27.:35:31.

seats. If I was a member of the armed forces having to give up my

:35:31.:35:35.

holiday with the prospect of my regiment being reduced in size, I

:35:35.:35:40.

wouldn't be that happy even if I got to see a bit of the athletics.

:35:40.:35:44.

Theresa May has been called to the House to be questioned. More about

:35:44.:35:48.

GS4 this afternoon. That will keep us busy!

:35:48.:35:53.

Moving on to the rail announcement, it turned into something of a

:35:53.:35:59.

restating of coalition vow, I felt, but is there a feeling that

:35:59.:36:04.

although MPs on both sides of the coalition maybe restless, the

:36:04.:36:12.

leadership, everything is is hunky- dory at the top? It was back to the

:36:12.:36:17.

Rose Garden. If I was Samantha or Miriam, I would be worried! They

:36:17.:36:21.

could be off this summer! Are they taking their parties with them. I

:36:21.:36:26.

have got my my doubts about that and we saw it with Gordon Brown and

:36:26.:36:31.

Tony Blair. You say, "Come on, everybody, this way, we're all

:36:31.:36:36.

together and they look over their shoulders and there is very few

:36:36.:36:41.

people following them. The difficulties have not gone away

:36:41.:36:45.

around House of Lords Reform. There will have to be a compromise, these

:36:45.:36:50.

current plans are dead, it is dead as a dodo and it is finished and it

:36:50.:36:55.

is gone. We got that! Can they take their parties with them? I don't

:36:55.:37:00.

see the coalition falling apart, but it has become unstable and it

:37:00.:37:04.

was sold at the beginning all about offering Britain a stable

:37:04.:37:10.

Government. Well, it is unstable and they cannot agree on a lot of

:37:10.:37:11.

important things other than austerity.

:37:11.:37:19.

Relations between MPs of either party have plummeted to the lowest

:37:19.:37:25.

depths and that isn't good for the future of the Government.

:37:25.:37:29.

Well, we have got three MPs, two from the coalition. We will see if

:37:29.:37:35.

their manage to keep their hands by their sides. It could be a busy

:37:35.:37:41.

summer. Do you think there is a chance of persuading enough Tory

:37:41.:37:45.

rebels to come on and vote through a timetable motion? That's what

:37:45.:37:49.

they are hoping for. If a timetable motion got defeated, there is

:37:49.:37:54.

closure motions that you could use to get past the filler bustering.

:37:54.:37:59.

You have senior Tory MPs such as Graham Brady suggesting that any

:37:59.:38:03.

element of an elected House would undermine the authorities of the

:38:03.:38:06.

House of Commons and the sentiment is so strong that David Cameron,

:38:06.:38:12.

even fe spends all summer, wing and wining and and dining and getting

:38:12.:38:17.

to to know the Lords rebels will find it difficult to win them over.

:38:17.:38:21.

Labour's position has to be looked at because you know, there isn't an

:38:21.:38:24.

easy choice, is there? Ed Miliband has to think hard, doesn't he,

:38:24.:38:29.

before he continues down that road of scuppering or seeming to help

:38:29.:38:33.

scupper Lords Reform, an issue close to Lib Dem hearts if he wants

:38:33.:38:37.

to go in coalition with them? think he is happy for it to fail

:38:37.:38:42.

this time, but he does not want to be seen to wield the dagger and he

:38:42.:38:47.

has a hidden problem, there are only 25 Labour MPs who rebelled,

:38:47.:38:53.

but there are dozen more who say when it comes to the crunch, they

:38:53.:38:58.

will not vote for Lords Reform, they think that voting for Lords

:38:58.:39:01.

Reform will help Nick Clegg and their hatred of Nick Clegg and it

:39:01.:39:06.

is a hatred, they feel he betrayed Labour and they were sick when he

:39:06.:39:11.

used to pose to a leader of the a party to the left of Labour and he

:39:11.:39:14.

goes into coalition, that means they will not back it when push

:39:14.:39:23.

comes to shove. And for the rest of the programme

:39:23.:39:25.

I've been joined by the Labour MP, Seema Malhotra, Conservative

:39:25.:39:28.

backbencher Rory Stewart and Duncan Hames for the Liberal Democrats.

:39:28.:39:30.

Welcome to the Daily Politics. It doesn't seem to be any hatred

:39:30.:39:33.

between you just yet. Rory, over the weekend we heard comments from

:39:33.:39:37.

within the Tory Party, Graham Brady warning the coalition will fracture

:39:38.:39:43.

before 2015. Do you agree? No, I don't. I think what you may see in

:39:43.:39:46.

the last year is the parties beginning to define themselves

:39:46.:39:49.

ready for the next election. It is difficult. We have been through a

:39:49.:39:52.

tricky time, but it is about relationships and it is about

:39:52.:39:55.

communication, it is about managing how two different parties relate to

:39:55.:39:59.

each other. Do you recognise the

:39:59.:40:02.

characterisation from our hacks saying they have never seen such

:40:02.:40:05.

hatred between Liberal Democrats and Tories, not just over Lords

:40:05.:40:10.

Reform, but over the state of the coalition? I need to bring in

:40:10.:40:13.

Duncan. Well, Rory and I get on very well.

:40:13.:40:16.

We were discussing our summer holiday plans.

:40:16.:40:21.

I am delighted for both of you! Is there that level of dislike now?

:40:21.:40:28.

Well, there is a lot of frustration. It is evident after two two years,

:40:28.:40:32.

the areas we don't agree, but we did have an agreement about what we

:40:32.:40:41.

would achieve in Government. What we would set out to achieve. We can

:40:41.:40:43.

only govern if we are prepared to work together and there is a

:40:43.:40:46.

determination to do that. Liberal Democrats in the coalition

:40:46.:40:49.

Government are able to deliver policies like cutting taxes for the

:40:49.:40:55.

lowest paid people in this country. The Conservatives won't help you

:40:55.:41:00.

deliver on Lords Reform. Liam Fox, a former Cabinet Minister says the

:41:00.:41:04.

Lib Dems only make up one sixth of the coalition, so you can't expect

:41:04.:41:08.

to get everything you want. accept we can't get everything we

:41:08.:41:12.

want. The coalition isn't what we would have wanted by any means.

:41:12.:41:17.

What do you say to that? Tory MPs, we have had a string of senior

:41:17.:41:20.

Liberal Democrats saying, "Can you expect Lib Dem MPs to walk with the

:41:20.:41:23.

Government in the division lobbies and vote for their seats to be

:41:23.:41:31.

scrapped in the boundary review when Tory MPs haven't delivered on

:41:31.:41:39.

Lords Reform?". I am a Lords rebel. This is about communication. These

:41:39.:41:43.

issues are deep in our parties. The Conservative Party feels deeply

:41:43.:41:47.

about the constitution in a particular way. Duncan feels deeply

:41:47.:41:50.

about the constitution in a different way. We disagree,

:41:50.:41:53.

strongly. You can't have a relationship whether it is a

:41:53.:41:57.

marriage or a coalition where you say, "I'm going to force you to do

:41:57.:42:00.

something you hate in return for you doing something I hate.".

:42:00.:42:05.

In terms of what Labour is doing, is this what is going on behindted

:42:05.:42:09.

behind the scenes, Ed Miliband trying to woo the Liberal

:42:09.:42:12.

Democrats? Is this the opportunity to get them on side ahead of the

:42:12.:42:15.

next election I don't think so. This is something that is clear

:42:15.:42:19.

about Labour's position we are saying that the House of Lords

:42:19.:42:25.

Reform needs to go beyond petty politics. This is important for the

:42:25.:42:28.

way we run our country and we want to see a referendum and no back

:42:28.:42:32.

room deals and an open and clear debate that people can participate

:42:32.:42:39.

in. I think this is a real turning point for the coalition because up

:42:39.:42:43.

until now, increasing the marriage analogy, the honeymoon period is

:42:43.:42:48.

over and there is a choice. I felt that looking at David Cameron

:42:48.:42:53.

yesterday in the Sunday Times piece it was an over ture to the Liberal

:42:53.:42:56.

Democrats more than it was to Tory rebels. And there is the fault line

:42:56.:42:58.

is emerging between the Conservatives and the Liberal

:42:58.:43:02.

Democrats. Does David Cameron need to do to

:43:02.:43:07.

win over rebels like yourself? as rebels need to do more to

:43:07.:43:12.

communicate. The Government needs to do more to communicate. I don't

:43:12.:43:16.

think it is faithal. There are things we disagree and we are

:43:16.:43:18.

different parties, different histories and different parties, it

:43:18.:43:22.

would be ludicrous if we didn't disagree. We are communicating and

:43:23.:43:27.

doing the important things on the economy above all.

:43:27.:43:30.

The come pen tators are saying David Cameron is in trouble. David

:43:30.:43:34.

Cameron is struggling to recapture his authority and confidence. Calls

:43:34.:43:40.

for George Osborne to be moved out of the of the teshry. Do you agree

:43:40.:43:44.

with think of these? We believe in an independent Parliament. The fact

:43:44.:43:48.

that out of 340 divisions there is one in which 92 people rebel

:43:48.:43:52.

shouldn't be the crisis, that ends the world. People who believe in

:43:52.:43:55.

independent parliaments should believe and there is a possibility

:43:55.:43:58.

of days greement, that shouldn't mean the collapse of the coalition,

:43:58.:44:01.

the Prime Minister and the Chancellor and I think it means web

:44:01.:44:06.

get on while disagreeing. We have got the summer to regroup.

:44:06.:44:09.

Do you remember the Government's cap on benefits? That's the plan to

:44:09.:44:12.

stop households from claiming more than �26,000 in benefits per year.

:44:12.:44:15.

Well, the cap hasn't yet come into force, but already the Work and

:44:15.:44:18.

Pensions Secretary, Iain Duncan Smith is claiming the policy is a

:44:18.:44:23.

success. He has released figures this morning which show that 1,700

:44:23.:44:26.

people who would have been affected by the cap, which comes into force

:44:26.:44:33.

next year, have now started working. How have they worked those figures

:44:33.:44:39.

out? They have written to everybody affected by the benefits cap. In

:44:39.:44:42.

Penrith, we have written to 82 people people we think who are

:44:42.:44:46.

affected and those people, they get three telephone calls and a letter

:44:46.:44:50.

and they get in touch in order to get support to help them get into

:44:50.:44:53.

work if they are worried about the benefits cap m

:44:53.:44:58.

They have managed to compile figures from people who were claim

:44:58.:45:01.

beyond the �26,000 and who are not, even though it is ahead of the cap

:45:02.:45:07.

coming in in.? They will continue to get the money until 2013, but

:45:07.:45:11.

they are warning them that they might not longer continue to see

:45:11.:45:19.

the money and offering them help to move on.

:45:19.:45:23.

1300 people have stopped claiming? They come down below the benefits

:45:23.:45:28.

cap. If the cap was lowered, you would save more money and force

:45:28.:45:38.
:45:38.:45:38.

What we have tried to do is choose a number that reflects the average

:45:38.:45:43.

income of the country. We disagreed with Labour because we believe that

:45:43.:45:47.

people earning more than the average income of working people in

:45:47.:45:52.

this country should not got any benefits. We have chosen the

:45:52.:46:00.

average as the cat. Even though some Tory MPs have figured a number

:46:00.:46:08.

of 20,000? It is working. There will be people seeking work all the

:46:08.:46:13.

time and going back to work. What is fundamental and Labour have been

:46:13.:46:18.

supportive of the benefit cap but saying it needs to be done in a

:46:18.:46:24.

different way, taking awareness of child poverty. We see it there is a

:46:24.:46:29.

crisis, long-term youth unemployment, a six-year

:46:29.:46:34.

unemployment high... But do you support the cat being �26,000 a

:46:34.:46:42.

year? There me to be variations. Labour has asked about a regional

:46:42.:46:47.

housing benefit cap, and do you determine that independently,

:46:47.:46:51.

having a commission that recognises that housing costs may be cheaper

:46:51.:46:55.

in different parts of the country. Absolutely everybody is in support

:46:55.:47:00.

of people going back to work. it is not the same as supporting a

:47:00.:47:05.

cap, which is very popular in the country and is obviously working.

:47:05.:47:09.

Labour supports the cap but would like to see regional variation, CU

:47:10.:47:15.

would be happy for families in Liverpool and Glasgow to be able to

:47:15.:47:19.

claim less than in your London constituency? We need to look at

:47:19.:47:24.

what the government is not telling you. The government is not saying

:47:24.:47:29.

that of the 56,000 families affected, over 29,000 have over

:47:30.:47:34.

four children. We have to see what the impact will be on child poverty

:47:34.:47:39.

and other social issues. Are the Liberal Democrats completely at

:47:39.:47:43.

ease with the cap and the effect it will have one large families

:47:43.:47:47.

squares match I voted for their benefits cat. But not all your

:47:48.:47:55.

colleagues did. No. But the proposals in that Bill were amended

:47:55.:47:59.

so people in the support group, people who are so ill that they

:47:59.:48:03.

cannot reasonably hope to go back to work, they are excluded from the

:48:03.:48:08.

benefit cap, and I think that is a way that we were able to take a

:48:08.:48:12.

policy that was Conservative invention to make it Seren, so we

:48:12.:48:19.

could have confidence in it. there is speculation, the measure

:48:19.:48:24.

will affect large families and that would impact 200,000 children. Are

:48:24.:48:29.

you happy with that? I understand that is a consequence because those

:48:29.:48:34.

families got in receipt of the largest amount of benefits. Our

:48:34.:48:37.

concern was the real way for them to raise their living standards was

:48:38.:48:42.

to get into work, and that this policy does not help those people

:48:42.:48:49.

who were not able to physically go to work, which is why we secured

:48:49.:48:54.

the exemption for the Support Group, which I was proud to do. How many

:48:54.:49:01.

households are affected? In your constituency, none I suppose.

:49:01.:49:07.

have 82... Sorry, we have eight. was going to say! I have not seen

:49:07.:49:12.

my figure in Wiltshire. We have won a council covering several

:49:12.:49:19.

constituencies. In your area and, quite a few. Yes, and we have

:49:19.:49:23.

12,000 on the waiting-list for housing in Hounslow so this issue

:49:23.:49:26.

will have wider ramifications in terms of its impacts.

:49:26.:49:30.

It's coming to the end of the show and we've got a few minutes left so

:49:30.:49:34.

what shall we talk about? I know, the weather! Yes, it's been a

:49:34.:49:37.

pretty miserable summer so far. So, what is all this rain doing to the

:49:38.:49:39.

national mood? Giles has been finding out.

:49:40.:49:46.

# Rainy days and Monday's always get me down #.

:49:46.:49:56.
:49:56.:49:56.

How does the weather make you feel? LAUGHTER. Depressed. I am from

:49:56.:50:04.

Israel, it is much hotter there. We get used to it. The British summer!

:50:04.:50:08.

We have been in this long recession and then you have the worst weather

:50:08.:50:15.

in history. No decency. Nothing to lift you out of the mire! For this

:50:15.:50:20.

country at this time, and the Olympics, everybody should be happy.

:50:20.:50:25.

It is something to make us smile. It will never happen again in our

:50:25.:50:28.

lifetime so blow the weather, we are the British and we will get

:50:28.:50:35.

through it! If I compare it to the war in Afghanistan, it is not a

:50:35.:50:40.

major issues. It would be nice to have a bit of sunshine. It makes

:50:40.:50:45.

you laugh that they spend all this money trying to get fake rain in

:50:45.:50:48.

Wembley for the Olympics and we will get the real stuff! It is

:50:49.:50:58.
:50:59.:51:04.

Giles Dilnot and the view of some Londoners. So are we ever going to

:51:04.:51:09.

get our summer? We can talk now to Laura Tobin in the BBC Weather

:51:09.:51:17.

Centre. Will we ever get a summer? It is the million dollar question.

:51:17.:51:21.

The long-range forecast suggests that there is no prolonged dry, hot,

:51:21.:51:27.

sunny spell in the forecast. But there may be a brief glimmer at the

:51:27.:51:31.

end of the tunnel. We are quietly optimistic that within the next

:51:32.:51:36.

couple of weeks, things will become a little more settled, a little

:51:36.:51:43.

less wet. Why has it been so bad? It is to do with the jet stream. We

:51:43.:51:48.

have been talking about it for quite a while. This is a fast

:51:48.:51:53.

moving band of their high up in the atmosphere and it drags the weather

:51:53.:51:58.

fronts from the United States the right to ask. In a normal summer,

:51:58.:52:02.

the jet stream should be to our North Sea. Keeping the wet and

:52:02.:52:08.

windy weather across small north- western areas. This year, the jet

:52:08.:52:12.

stream has been to the south, keeping six sessions of weather

:52:12.:52:21.

What about our neighbours? Why aren't they getting it, especially

:52:21.:52:26.

in northern Europe? For they are lucky because they are on the other

:52:26.:52:31.

side of the jet stream. They are on the warm side of things. They have

:52:31.:52:37.

had high pressure in eastern Europe, and across eastern parts of America.

:52:37.:52:40.

Where we have high pressure around the globe, we have had some

:52:41.:52:46.

excessive heat conditions. One many people that have been devastating.

:52:46.:52:50.

Of course. Who can we blame for pushing the jet stream that far

:52:50.:52:56.

south? At the moment, the main thing is the fact we have got the

:52:56.:53:00.

blocked area of high pressure in the States, pushing their jet

:53:00.:53:07.

stream north. There is also minute discussion as scientists will have

:53:07.:53:11.

around El Nino, climate change and the Arctic ice as well. Many

:53:11.:53:21.
:53:21.:53:24.

Duncan Hames, experts have begun to blame melting ice. Is there any

:53:24.:53:28.

evidence of this? I don't know if we can definitively say the

:53:28.:53:31.

position of the jet stream this year it is to do with climate

:53:31.:53:36.

change but it is a timely reminder that we normally enjoy better

:53:36.:53:40.

weather in the summer than our latitude would entitle us to

:53:40.:53:43.

because of this jet stream, and that means the climate in Britain

:53:43.:53:49.

is very fragile and if things like ice melting from the Greenland

:53:49.:53:52.

causes temperature changes which leads to the jet stream moving

:53:52.:53:57.

slightly, that could have a very big effect on us. Soon you are

:53:57.:54:02.

saying we will have more of this? Has the bad weather affected the

:54:02.:54:07.

mood in House of Commons? I think we have had more to affect the mood

:54:07.:54:12.

than the weather! We don't get to go outside very much! It affects me

:54:12.:54:17.

deeply because I have undertaken to walk 100 miles every week through

:54:17.:54:21.

my constituency in the next few weeks, so why will be doing it with

:54:21.:54:27.

a big umbrella. But the weather in your constituency is probably not

:54:27.:54:33.

as fine as down south or is it noticeably worse? It is! It is

:54:33.:54:37.

definitely colder. I could not believe I was in July yesterday and

:54:38.:54:43.

the thought I have 600 miles to go... We cannot blame the

:54:43.:54:47.

government for this! Always blame the government for everything, if

:54:47.:54:57.
:54:57.:55:00.

in any doubt. She is staying quiet! What about the Olympics? If it

:55:00.:55:06.

continues to reign over the Olympics, will its damage it?

:55:06.:55:10.

suggest people watched the swimming and diving. And maybe the velodrome.

:55:10.:55:15.

I don't think it will dampen spirits. One thing that is positive

:55:15.:55:18.

about the Olympics is that everybody seems to be excited about

:55:18.:55:25.

it. You don't think the weather will put people off coming here?

:55:25.:55:32.

When we had a torch coming through, we have the rain lashing and we had

:55:32.:55:38.

nearly double the population of the town watching good torch procession.

:55:38.:55:42.

There is a serious point about preparations if we are going to

:55:42.:55:47.

have more flash flooding and the sort of weather that has blighted

:55:47.:55:52.

your constituency. Should the government be doing more? We have

:55:52.:55:56.

done a big thing, we have changed the insurance situation. It is

:55:56.:56:01.

difficult to get flood insurance and we are on the cusp of a big

:56:01.:56:05.

deal with insurers that everybody should be able to get decent flood

:56:05.:56:09.

insurance. We have had other great schemes, communities working with

:56:09.:56:14.

government to get flood defences. Labour has been calling for an

:56:14.:56:19.

injection of cash to help the fly- tipped areas, particularly in the

:56:19.:56:24.

north-west and the Midlands. -- a flood hit areas. And for any

:56:24.:56:29.

development that you have, you should plan for where rainwater

:56:29.:56:33.

might growth. That has been lacking, in terms of natural defences, water

:56:33.:56:39.

being able to drain away so we do not see the floods we have seen.

:56:39.:56:45.

Should the government be planning now for future years? We must plan

:56:46.:56:49.

for the future but part of that planning must be about response

:56:49.:56:54.

because when you have flooding and the results of very heavy rain full

:56:54.:57:03.

initial periodof time, that causes problems. Traditional programmes of

:57:03.:57:07.

projects like the Thames barrier, those projects would do nothing to

:57:07.:57:11.

help those communities say we need to make sure we have a good

:57:11.:57:15.

response in place ready for when these events inevitably happen.

:57:15.:57:20.

what sort of response should that be? About how local service

:57:20.:57:23.

providers and people in the community can look after people

:57:23.:57:30.

that may find themselves excluded, and so that people know not to take

:57:30.:57:35.

dangerous chances. An example from been my constituency, we have flood

:57:35.:57:40.

wardens, everybody gets a text message, people now know how to

:57:40.:57:45.

evacuate and we have learnt this painfully. We are getting better.

:57:45.:57:48.

Mountain rescue has been amazing in their support.

:57:48.:57:52.

There is just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

:57:52.:57:56.

The question today was: What piece of music has David Cameron said he

:57:56.:58:06.
:58:06.:58:15.

would like to see as England's Or Heaven Knows I'm Miserable Now

:58:15.:58:25.
:58:25.:58:32.

I will not make all of using a rendition but can you tell me what

:58:32.:58:40.

the right answer is? Jerusalem. Jerusalem. The carpenters, rainy

:58:40.:58:46.

days on Mondays. That is not on the list! You are absolutely right.

:58:46.:58:48.

Jerusalem. That's all for today. Thanks to

:58:48.:58:51.

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