13/07/2012 Daily Politics


13/07/2012

Andrew Neil has the top political stories of the day.


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Afternoon folks, welcome to the Daily Politics. Details emerge of

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the Parliamentary Commission into Banking Standards this morning, and

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one member of the Treasury Select Committee has already branded it a

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"whitewash". We'll have the latest from Westminster.

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Almost a year on from the riots - the government announce plans to

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speed up the courts process. We'll ask the criminal justice minister

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how it will work and whether it will serve or rush justice.

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And we'll ask the question that really matters to voters - will the

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gloomy economic weather ever improve?

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And it's 50 years since this kindly looking gentleman did in seven of

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his cabinet colleagues. We'll remember Harold Macmillan and the

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:01:24.:01:32.

All that in the next hour. And senses it is the final programme

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from the poor September -- until September, we have spared no

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expense. We have paid for Allister Heath, and Jackie Ashley. You don't

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get that on Newsnight! Let's start with that Parliamentary Commission

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on Banking Standards formed amid some controversy in the wake of the

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LIBOR scandal. We have some detail of what it will look at and who

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will do the looking. Let's go over to Carole Walker for the latest.

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Understand there is already a row about the composition of this

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investigation. It hasn't had the easiest of launchers. We heard this

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morning that the five MPs are going to be from the Treasury Select

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Committee, as we expected, chaired by Andrew Tyrie. He is going to be

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joined by Mark Garnier, a Conservative MP, for Labour there

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is going to be Andy Love and Pat McFadden, and John Thurso will be

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there for the Lib Dems. But there are no places for people like John

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Mann, the rather outspoken Labour member of the committee, others who

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had talked frankly about the committee failing to pin down Bob

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Diamond. People like David Ruffley, who is known as a pugnacious

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questioner, or Jesse Norman who clashed with the Prime Minister

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over Lords reform recently. John Mann has already said that he

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thinks the whole thing is a total joke and a whitewash, he is

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threatening to set up his own alternative inquiry. Given that

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Labour wanted a different inquiry from the start, they wanted an

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independent commission led by a judge, it certainly has not been

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the easiest of launches for this effort to try and get to the bottom

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of what has gone wrong with our banks. Thanks to that. An excellent

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summary of what the situation is. Allister Heath, John Mann can be a

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bit of a grandstand up. I understand that. But you do want

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some trouble makers, and they have kept off all the troublemakers on

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the right and the left. There are could be members of the House of

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Lords, we don't know who debt are. I bet you they are not

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troublemakers! But at least they have got a barrister. I would like

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to see some answers. I am sick of the political showcasing and

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grandstanding, bullying in front of cameras, what we really need are

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answers, and we have had too few answers. But I agree it is a bad

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start. On the other hand, Andrew Tyrie is someone who will want to

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build a name for himself, so I don't think it is a whitewash.

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John Mann was the people's voice, Jackie Ashley, they are not on it?

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At the is odd, the people who have been left off. I think John Mann

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does a lot of the insults, he isn't really getting into the forensic

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evidence. He is the Tom Watson of the select committee! People are

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saying that maybe Nigel Lawson might come on in the Lords, that

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could be interesting. But where are the women? We have got John Thurso,

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Andy Love... I am so glad you're noticing this! I have been noticing

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these things for years. He appointed the first female editor

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of the Scotsman? Don't start me! Pat McFadden is a man for those who

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don't know. We will wait to see. The point I'm making is, it doesn't

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seem the most high-powered committee, into a world which can

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cover you in cotton wool. In many ways, that is the problem with MPs.

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Not many are knowledgeable about the intricacies of high-level

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banking and so on. So maybe they will appoint other experts later.

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I think we have to hope for the Lords. They understand the banking

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industry, not many people do. talking about criminals now.

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Criminals could go through the justice system in a matter of hours

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under new plans drawn up by the government. Ministers say they were

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impressed by how quickly the courts dealt with the riots last year, and

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they're keen to use this experience to speed up the system in general.

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This morning the Ministry of Justice published a white paper

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with the title "Swift and Sure Justice", which details a number of

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proposals to get things moving quicker. Court hours will be more

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flexible, with magistrates sitting at weekends and bank holidays, and

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there will be more use of technology with police, defendants

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and witnesses being able to give evidence by video link. Magistrates

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could sit outside courts in places like community centres for low-

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level uncontested cases, and neighbourhood justice panels will

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be brought in to deal with anti- social behaviour and other minor

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offences. What's more, there will be a new "Justice Test" to help

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police officers on the beat make decisions on how to deal with

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offenders and magistrates will be able to scrutinise police use of

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cautions and penalty notices. Ministers hope shoplifting cases

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that currently take five weeks will be dealt with in 13 days or fewer

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in future, and some uncontested cases could take just a matter of

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hours. Joining me now is the Police and Criminal Justice Minister Nick

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Herbert who launched the white paper this morning. Is this about

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speeding up justice or saving money? No, it is about speeding up

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justice. We were impressed by the speed that justice was delivered

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after the riots, and the significance of that was it didn't

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require any legal changes, didn't compromise the rights of defendants.

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There was an in-built culture of delay that was applying in normal

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operation of criminal justice, and victims reedy lost out. It sent a

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clear message to offenders if these issues are brought to justice as

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soon as possible. We know that in many cases, because the majority of

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cases are uncontested, simple, don't involve going to trial, that

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can happen within hours and days, particularly through the use of new

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technology. But some of the rulings, some of the justice after the riots,

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it may have been something to do with the speed, they were out of

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kilter with the sentences normally handed out for that kind of

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behaviour. They were much longer. They were exemplary sentences,

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handed down by eight judges he thought it was necessary to send

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out a signal. That wasn't a speedy issue. It did clear and very clear

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message to the offenders, and they were upheld by the Court of Appeal,

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significantly. I think the public broadly judged that was right. When

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we were studying why cases are taking so long, and from the

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commission of an offence to it been sentenced in a magistrate's course,

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-- Court, it takes five months on average two. In the 16 weeks of

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time in court, there were six hours of actual work involved, the rest

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of the time was just delayed. So there was a cultural problem. So we

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can bring these cases board much more quickly, which I think is what

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the public wants. You are more likely to get things wrong, we all

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do, the more we tried to read things quickly, the more prone we

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are to mistakes. That must be a danger to the court system as well.

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Things go wrong at the moment. day will go more wrong? But can you

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imagine if you run an airline or any other organisation... Not in

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the normal course of things, you don't. There may be some

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cancellations, but not half of the and. There are problems at the

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moment, it is about making sure resources are allocated sensibly,

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and the judiciary are going to bring forward more straightforward

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cases and guilty pleas sooner, that is in the interests of justice.

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you have the court on your side on this? They are famous for going

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slowly, they run for the benefit of those to work in the courts rather

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than the public, do you have their agreement? Are they going to say

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you can do this if you give them more dosh? We are giving a stronger

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role for the magistracy, Victim Support welcomes this proposal. I

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don't think it is surprising, because I think victims of the big

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losers. Justice delayed is justice denied. The Magna Carter said just

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as it should not be delayed, and it is unnecessarily delayed in this

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country. I think he could be something more about the hours that

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the court said, because from what I understand, they sit for about in

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the morning and a couple of hours in the afternoon. Surely that is an

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easy way of getting more courses -- case it into court, rather than

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having this rather bizarre idea of community sentences. That is what

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we are putting, more flexible hours. That fits in with today's work

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patterns, and also fits in with where crime may be committed. We

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are piloting later openings in the evenings and opening on Sunday,

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which could eat a lot of the demand that sometimes comes in over the

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weekend. So it is about smarter working, modern employment

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practices, and the rights to show that if you have a concentration of

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cases, it is so important that offenders understand that sure

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justice will be applied. They will be dealt with immediately. It is

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not just about to Verity, it is about certainty that the system is

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going to deal with you properly. think it is good to speed the

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springs up, but I'm sure -- concerned about costs, and having

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looked at how other countries do it? Have they managed to

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successfully accelerate the process? But did you think there

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are going to be issues with the cost? It I think you're right there

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is a danger with cost, that is why we are putting these schemes, but

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the criminal justice system costs �20 billion a year, it is what the

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most expensive in the world. Generally, our systems that are

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inefficient are ones that are spending money wisely. Other

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systems have realised that they have to change working patterns in

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order to adapt. Have any other countries managed to speed up

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justice to the degree that you of trying to do can have you gone

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abroad? There is a limit to the amount we should do that, because

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of what we dog would do is undermine our principles of justice,

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that it is always fair, the people could have their day in court.

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We're not going to get rid of a jury trial, we have other ways we

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think we can deter cases answers are already coming to court without

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undermining that fundamental right. So it is about real issues of

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efficiency that we can look at. It is not just a question of saying

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that we are going to have caught open during the week and opening

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longer, criminals don't observe these hours. Some do, there are

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quite lazy criminals! The big question is this, when these

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magistrates going to the community to dish out justice, can you give

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us a guarantee the security will not be provided by brute force?

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Just to say that up and down the country, there are private sector

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organisations delivering criminal- justice services at this moment for

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police forces and prisons and courts transport, initiated by the

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last government. I just came in behind a plan that would have been

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transporting this -- prisoners to jail, police forces use the private

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sector to run their cells, this all happened very successfully, it

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reduces cost and provides a better service for the public. So is that

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a yes or a note? A I wasn't answering your question, of course!

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A I knew that! I am trying to make a wider point, I do think there is

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a difference between the Olympics, a huge one soft -- one-off event.

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This may work, but I find it hard to believe that if it does, people

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are going to have to work longer hours, you will need more people to

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speed things up, but in the end it will cost more money. Other expect

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-- I don't accept for dealing with inefficiency costs money. We have

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got to make sure of this. The justice system must be run in the

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interests of victims and the public. It is not run for the convenience

:15:09.:15:19.
:15:19.:15:21.

of the professionals, that is a Do not go away. You don't need to

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understand quantitative easing, bond markets, futures trading or

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interest rates to know we have been in tricky economic times recently

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and most of us just want to know one thing... When might it get

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better? Some say growth and confidence will return late next

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year, others that we'll feel gloomy for much longer. Giles has been

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testing the economic weather and tried a bit of forecasting. NPower

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lots of us, asking the question, when will it all end, is a bit like

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the question we have all been asking about the weather? For some

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of us, it seems as if the prospects are really very gloomy indeed.

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signs are not good. It looks like we may still be in recession at the

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moment. Even if we do struck growing again, there is no signs it

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will be at previous levels. -- start growing. When Mervyn King

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says we're halfway through a ten- year period, that makes me very

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worried. When you trawl back through history and look at cans of

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recession stories, those continue a long time after the recession has

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actually ended. -- counts. problem here is not everyone's

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forecast is the same. Some would say things are a lot brighter and

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sunnier than you might expect economically. Some have a vested

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interest in saying that. Others point to significant independent

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figures suggesting things could get a lot better than we might think.

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am very optimistic. We have a good base to build on. Where the second

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largest exporter of services. We have a great base to build on. --

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we are the second. The Government recognises some of the challenges

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we are facing. One way it will feel better is the squeeze on household

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incomes we have had in recent years will go away. We think there will

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be some growth in real earnings over the next couple of years. Over

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the last four years, he had seen a decline of 7% in household income.

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-- we have seen. The real problem comes the sunshine and showers.

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Could it be that politicians will not tell us when the financial

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crisis may come to an end because the honest truth is they have no

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idea? I think every forecast it ever looked at, nine times out of

:18:06.:18:11.

10, it was incorrect. It is very difficult to try to predict what

:18:11.:18:16.

would happen. That is right. It is hard to make predictions about

:18:16.:18:23.

where the economy will be next week. They predict both good and bad

:18:23.:18:28.

anyway. Why might they want to float a more gloomy outlook past us

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poor punters? It is better to set people's expectations low and be

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positively surprised on the upside. Possibly you can take some credit

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for that surprise. And Nick Herbert is still with us. Why has our

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recovery been the more lacklustre of the G8 economies? All sorts of

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factors, including performance of the eurozone. That makes recovery

:18:56.:19:03.

slower than Germany and France. had a huge allowance of -- on

:19:03.:19:08.

financial services. It is the principal export market of Germany

:19:08.:19:13.

as well. It is not all gloom. That was drawn attention to buy some who

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were interviewed. If you look the Shia at the performance of our car

:19:21.:19:28.

industry, new investment and new jobs. -- this year. There was an

:19:28.:19:33.

improvement and narrowing of the trade deficit. That export was to

:19:33.:19:40.

none eurozone countries, like China. In the last two years we have

:19:40.:19:44.

created 800 Paras and private sector jobs. A lot of them part-

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time! -- 800,000. These are not people who wanted part-time jobs.

:19:53.:20:00.

They want full-time jobs. There have been successes. Though should

:20:00.:20:06.

be talked about as well. We have a situation where we have got on top

:20:06.:20:11.

of the deficit. That has been reduced by a quarter. The action we

:20:11.:20:15.

have taken has enabled historically low interest rates, which is

:20:15.:20:21.

incredibly important. Can I just remind you in this picture of the

:20:21.:20:29.

booming economy you are painting - overall the big picture is what

:20:29.:20:34.

matters? Living standards have been squeezed for longer and more deeply

:20:34.:20:40.

than any time since the 1920s. Unemployment is 2.5 million. There

:20:40.:20:46.

has been a growth in this economy since she came to power. There

:20:46.:20:50.

prospect of it in the foreseeable future. No one is in any doubt it

:20:50.:20:57.

was a damaging recession. We were particularly exposed to it because

:20:57.:21:00.

of our reliance on financial- services. We were ill prepared for

:21:00.:21:06.

it because we had a budget deficit. That was one problem the last

:21:06.:21:12.

government bequeathed asked. We had a massive spending problem. The

:21:12.:21:15.

bigger argument is about how to deal with these problems and the

:21:15.:21:21.

fact we have got on top of the deficit and built a strong

:21:21.:21:27.

foundations. We have produced it by a quarter. What will the deficit ft

:21:27.:21:36.

by 2015? I cannot tell you. -- deficit be. It will be higher than

:21:36.:21:43.

France and Italy and Germany today. Let me finish the point. It will

:21:43.:21:49.

still be the highest deficit of any G eight country by 2015. You know

:21:49.:21:55.

that we have a plan to eliminate the bulk of the deficit by the end

:21:55.:22:00.

of this Parliament. That is an incredibly challenging thing to do

:22:00.:22:04.

- requiring reductions in public spending. They have been opposed

:22:04.:22:09.

that at every turn by the Labour Party. When you came to power, you

:22:09.:22:14.

said you have sorted the deficit fell by 2015. In the pre-Budget

:22:14.:22:22.

report, you told us I need another two years - I need to have 2017.

:22:22.:22:25.

The Cabinet Secretary and the Governor of the Bank of England say

:22:25.:22:32.

it will wait till 2020. He did not say that about the deficit. I am

:22:32.:22:36.

reminded me of that the significant progress we have already made.

:22:36.:22:41.

is the economy not growing battle? There have been a combination of

:22:41.:22:47.

things, haven't they? -- at all. The problem in the eurozone is

:22:47.:22:54.

really serious and the collapse of demand. Very high commodity prices

:22:54.:22:58.

and this general issue of confidence. We have to be careful

:22:58.:23:03.

about talking down the things that are done. The situation is

:23:03.:23:07.

depressing. The economy is shrinking. Who knows what will

:23:07.:23:11.

happen in the third quarter? It might shrink. The Olympics will

:23:11.:23:17.

make it shrink. They're having a lot of negative effect. The

:23:17.:23:22.

Government has not done enough to boost the competitiveness of the

:23:22.:23:27.

economy. There has been too much of the old policies when it comes to

:23:27.:23:33.

many things, including monetary policy. Inflation has been too high.

:23:33.:23:38.

Inflation has started to fall a bit. Too much of the policy is about

:23:38.:23:42.

monetary policy and the idea we need to boost credit by bank

:23:42.:23:47.

lending and so on were not doing enough when it comes to the tax

:23:47.:23:53.

system and regulation. -- while not doing. The airport business is a

:23:53.:23:59.

big blunder. Planning has been made easier. I cannot see that. It is

:23:59.:24:06.

the same as before. The national debt is going up. I cannot see how

:24:06.:24:12.

we can have a proper recovery. I can't see how the forecasts of

:24:12.:24:16.

George Osborne will materialise. you sum up what is being said, you

:24:16.:24:22.

could hit the 2015 election with no growth in this economy, correct?

:24:22.:24:28.

will challenge some of those things. There have been important changes.

:24:28.:24:33.

We eliminated the jobs touch and reduced national insurance.

:24:33.:24:41.

still went up. -- jobs tax. We have reduced the amount of corporation

:24:41.:24:47.

tax. There have been apprenticeships. Changes to the way

:24:47.:24:52.

in which we employ people. It is incredibly important for

:24:52.:24:56.

competitiveness. It is wrong to suggest nothing has been done in

:24:56.:25:06.

these areas. You have put up capital gains tax and VAT. There is

:25:06.:25:11.

a massive budget deficit that has to be dealt with. We have secured a

:25:11.:25:19.

reduction in that by reducing public spending. Excuse me,

:25:19.:25:25.

minister! The figures up on your own government red boat. Most of

:25:25.:25:35.

the production in the deficit has been done by raising taxes. -- Red

:25:35.:25:40.

Book. Far too many people are out of the job -- a job as a result of

:25:40.:25:46.

spending cuts. The programme to reduce spending actually is

:25:46.:25:51.

something that has been opposed at every turn by the left and by the

:25:51.:25:56.

Labour Party. And yet it is the thing that has enabled us to build

:25:56.:26:04.

a foundation of market confidence. I think it has been perfectly clear

:26:04.:26:08.

over the last couple of years that austerity measures happened too far

:26:08.:26:13.

and too fast. There is no growth. There is no sign of anything yet,

:26:13.:26:19.

is there? I gave a list of things where there were signs. What we

:26:19.:26:24.

should do now is to increase public spending and have more borrowing

:26:24.:26:29.

with all the consequences that will have in terms of market confidence.

:26:29.:26:33.

As a consequence of that a rise in interest rates will be the worst

:26:33.:26:40.

thing we can do. What a bad if unemployment keeps going up? --

:26:40.:26:46.

what about. I talked about the creation of private sector jobs. We

:26:46.:26:52.

heard a big structural problem of youth unemployment, even in the

:26:52.:26:58.

good years. -- had. There are fundamental problems we need to

:26:58.:27:03.

address. That is linked to welfare reforms. All of these measures are

:27:03.:27:10.

incredibly important. We have brought forward the structure.

:27:10.:27:16.

You're in an interesting position. One person wants a lot more supply-

:27:16.:27:24.

side reform. Someone else who wants a more traditional Keynesian

:27:24.:27:34.
:27:34.:27:35.

stimulus. You do not satisfy either of these. What they're doing is not

:27:35.:27:41.

working. There is a different stimulus. There are considerable

:27:41.:27:47.

military activities going on to release credit into the economy. --

:27:47.:27:53.

monetary. The pundits warned they said that would have inflationary

:27:53.:27:58.

consequences. It is coming down. We have an National Loans guarantee

:27:58.:28:02.

scheme. There is a new lending scheme in order to try to get

:28:02.:28:08.

lending to business. Lending is still not coming through. There has

:28:08.:28:13.

been a huge problem with that. We have announced a new scheme with

:28:13.:28:21.

that. This 325 billion and another 50 that has gone into the economy,

:28:21.:28:29.

where is that money? There is a problem that banks have not been

:28:29.:28:34.

lending to small businesses. We have set up the loan guarantee

:28:34.:28:44.
:28:44.:28:45.

scheme in order to incentivised that. -- incentivised. Where is the

:28:45.:28:52.

325 billion? Where has it gone? is in the economy. Somewhere but no

:28:52.:28:59.

one can find it. It is not in the pay-off of Bob Diamond, is it? You

:28:59.:29:09.
:29:09.:29:11.

have been a good sport. They are very hostile. I apologise. He is a

:29:11.:29:16.

feminist. We are off now! Thanks for coming in. If I do not see you

:29:16.:29:20.

again, have a good summer. Government plans to clean up

:29:20.:29:23.

lobbying have been thrown into doubt today. A scathing report from

:29:23.:29:25.

the Political and Constitutional Affairs Committee says the

:29:25.:29:28.

Government's plans will only scratch the surface and do little

:29:28.:29:30.

to improve transparency. The Government is planning to introduce

:29:30.:29:33.

a statutory register of all those who lobby on behalf of third

:29:33.:29:36.

parties. But the committee says this plan should be scrapped and,

:29:36.:29:38.

instead, regulations should be introduced to cover all those who

:29:38.:29:48.

lobby professionally. Not just businesses but charities, trade

:29:48.:29:51.

unions and so on. You may remember that, before he became Prime

:29:51.:29:54.

Minister, David Cameron identified lobbying as a major problem and

:29:54.:30:01.

pledged to sort it out. Let's look at what he said: It is the next big

:30:01.:30:07.

scandal waiting to happen. It is an issue which crosses party lines and

:30:07.:30:12.

has tainted politics for too long. It exposes the far too cosy

:30:12.:30:18.

relationship between politics, government, business and money. I

:30:18.:30:25.

am talking about lobbying. We know how it works - the lunches, the

:30:25.:30:30.

hospitality - advisers for hire. Helping big business to get its way.

:30:30.:30:36.

In this party we believe in competition and not cronyism. We

:30:36.:30:41.

believe in market economics and not crony capitalism. We must sort this

:30:41.:30:47.

Joining me now from Cardiff is the Labour MP Paul Flynn who sits on

:30:47.:30:56.

the Committee, and here. Let me come to you first. But the

:30:56.:31:00.

committee doesn't like would be government plans because you don't

:31:00.:31:05.

think it goes far enough. expression we news is that it only

:31:06.:31:11.

scratches the surface. 95% of lobbyists will be left off the hook.

:31:12.:31:19.

We heard the words of David Cameron, he was a lobbyist in his previous

:31:19.:31:24.

incarnation, had he says it means money buying power and PoW fishing

:31:25.:31:29.

for money. What has he done in a government? Absolutely nothing to

:31:29.:31:36.

reform it. The great crusade against lobbying has sunk his snout

:31:36.:31:40.

so deeply into the trough that or you can see are the sort of his

:31:40.:31:46.

Gucci shoes. We have seen scandal after scandal, at the worst was

:31:46.:31:51.

decried as a scandal, when it included buying a place to sit at

:31:51.:31:58.

David Cameron's table, �250,000 was the charge made it you wanted to

:31:58.:32:03.

dine with the Prime Minister. We have seen the scandals over Liam

:32:03.:32:07.

Fox, what was going on with a lobbyist influencing... I didn't

:32:07.:32:11.

want you to get everything knock on won't answer! For me the biggest

:32:11.:32:19.

revelation was that you pick the Prime Minister wears Gucci shoes!

:32:19.:32:29.

He is up to his... Jane Wilson, using to be happy -- you seemed to

:32:29.:32:33.

be happy that they go to drop his plan to register them. We were in

:32:33.:32:36.

the unusual position when we gave evidence one said this proposal

:32:36.:32:42.

didn't go far enough, but it did scratch the surface. The committee

:32:42.:32:49.

came back as they have and we think if a register has to be universal,

:32:49.:32:55.

everyone who lobbies professionally. What would be wrong with that?

:32:55.:33:00.

agree with that very much, this is support from all parties, and

:33:00.:33:05.

virtually all witnesses. The Tory majority on the committee agree

:33:05.:33:09.

that the government proposal doesn't go far enough, and the

:33:09.:33:14.

lobbyists who gave evidence also do same thing. That we must have root-

:33:15.:33:18.

and-branch reform of lobbying, or we will continue to have a

:33:18.:33:23.

government that is up for sale to stop there is a claim that �92

:33:23.:33:28.

million was spent by the financial industry last year it in order to

:33:28.:33:33.

subvert government policy. What we see his policies are been corrupted

:33:33.:33:38.

by the influence of lobbyists, the government are leaning over and

:33:38.:33:42.

taking the money from the lobbyists and altering their policies

:33:42.:33:49.

accordingly. There is a very good system for non for profit pensions,

:33:49.:33:54.

and that was watered down because of the cash spent by the financial

:33:54.:34:00.

industry to subvert government. me bringing Jane Wilson here. Do

:34:00.:34:05.

you want a register of lobbyists? Or we think the government is

:34:05.:34:12.

intent on registering lobbyists. What is your policy? We think a

:34:12.:34:16.

register could improve transparency, it could be a good thing, and did

:34:16.:34:20.

the problem is transparency, this could go some way to preventing it.

:34:20.:34:25.

Do you think everybody should be on this register, she did include a --

:34:25.:34:33.

charities, who are huge lobbyists in their own right? We used to it

:34:33.:34:36.

frees are no good cause exemptions. We think the financial burden

:34:36.:34:43.

should be looked at, but charitable organisations, with the Charities

:34:43.:34:50.

Act been overturned, they have them as campaigners. The I think they

:34:50.:34:55.

should all be registered, wheelie bin transparent times, and I think

:34:55.:34:59.

it is time we should have everybody registered. I did something

:34:59.:35:03.

ridiculous is happening, which is that all the pressure from

:35:03.:35:06.

businesses is happening privately, it should have been publicly. They

:35:06.:35:11.

should be an open debate about political stop I'm a business

:35:11.:35:16.

journalist, they never talk on the record but they spend money on

:35:16.:35:21.

lobbyists. What do you think will happen next? There will be an

:35:21.:35:24.

announcement next week and I think the Government will stick to an

:35:24.:35:30.

inadequate policy. But I believe that all parties, all of the

:35:30.:35:34.

witnesses who came before our committees said the same thing. We

:35:34.:35:40.

need a reform similar to what they have had in the US and Canada,

:35:40.:35:43.

otherwise they might well be a collapse of trust in the political

:35:43.:35:53.
:35:53.:35:53.

system. We shall see what happens. Both of you, thank you very much.

:35:53.:35:59.

It was a political whodunnit that wasn't hard to sort of. Because it

:35:59.:36:06.

was the Prime Minister in Number 10, the night of a very long knife.

:36:06.:36:09.

It's 50 years ago today - Friday 13th - since mild-mannered Harold

:36:09.:36:11.

Macmillan carried out the most brutal reshuffle in British

:36:11.:36:15.

political history. We'll discuss that - and whether David Cameron

:36:15.:36:18.

might have a reshuffle up his sleeve - in a moment, but first

:36:18.:36:22.

here's a familiar face who had a ringside seat on the Night of the

:36:22.:36:32.
:36:32.:36:37.

50 years ago the Prime Minister Harold Bellman and carried out one

:36:37.:36:43.

of the most dramatic and bloody reshuffles in political history, he

:36:43.:36:47.

sacked seven of his Cabinet. The most prominent was the Chancellor

:36:47.:36:53.

of the Exchequer. I was working as a young intern for Selwyn Lloyd, so

:36:53.:37:03.
:37:03.:37:04.

The day started with me bringing in the newspapers to Selwyn Lloyd in

:37:05.:37:11.

his flat, about 745 at him, and suddenly our eyes: the headline in

:37:11.:37:18.

the Daily Mail. It it's at least said, the Chancellor is going to be

:37:18.:37:23.

sacked. He said this was just a journalist pasha. Then there was a

:37:24.:37:30.

big surprise mid-morning. Suddenly there appeared in the Chancellor's

:37:30.:37:35.

office the private sector -- secretary of the Prime Minister. He

:37:35.:37:39.

astonished us by saying, I'm afraid my master has some bad news for

:37:40.:37:45.

your master. De Prime Minister has decided to after be charged led to

:37:45.:37:50.

resign. I wonder if you wouldn't mind breaking this bad news 2

:37:50.:37:57.

Selwyn Lloyd? I said, bloody well tell him yourself! He didn't want

:37:57.:38:07.
:38:07.:38:07.

to pass this on pre- 19-year-old student. Macmillan himself called

:38:07.:38:10.

Selwyn Lloyd the most loyal colleague he had ever had, they

:38:10.:38:14.

have been close colleagues for a long time. I spent the evening with

:38:14.:38:19.

a man who was shattered, several whiskies were poured out, suddenly

:38:19.:38:23.

the door bell rang, and the person at the door was the Post Office

:38:23.:38:28.

engineer he said, I have come to remove the high-security scrambler

:38:28.:38:38.
:38:38.:38:38.

telephone. I remember thinking, how quickly power fades. It was botched

:38:38.:38:46.

because it was done not in a carefully planned operation,

:38:46.:38:50.

scheduled in Manila in's mind, it had to be brought forward in a

:38:50.:38:54.

great panic because of the leak. Harold Goodman ended badly and

:38:54.:39:01.

whose belief. -- Harold Macmillan. The first lesson is, don't rush

:39:01.:39:07.

into it. It is not a bad idea to rejuvenate a government. But if

:39:07.:39:12.

you're going to do it, do it more skilfully and thoughtfully and

:39:13.:39:21.

strategically than the Night of the I'm joined now by Jonathan Aitken

:39:21.:39:28.

and by Peter Riddell from the Institute for Government. Let's

:39:28.:39:33.

just remember what the context was. The Tories had been in power for 11

:39:33.:39:39.

years by then. The government seemed to be belonging to a

:39:39.:39:45.

different Britain, the government wasn't that popular, there were

:39:45.:39:49.

problems with inflation and strikes. Harold Macmillan seemed to belong

:39:49.:39:55.

to the Edwardian age to stop this was a dramatic attempt at to

:39:55.:40:02.

Cardiff could the government into the 1960s? It was, but no one

:40:02.:40:06.

needed dragging more than Harold Macmillan himself, who was the

:40:06.:40:11.

personification of it, and in that interview I tried to reconstruct

:40:11.:40:18.

between self and -- Selvan Lloyd and him, Selwyn Lloyd said to him,

:40:18.:40:27.

of course of my job is disposable, but by air for a great worry that I

:40:27.:40:34.

will turn out to be Strafford to your King Charles at first. That is

:40:34.:40:39.

what turned out to happen. But in the end, in a centre it almost

:40:39.:40:46.

worked. Because the Tories did change things, picking someone with

:40:46.:40:54.

an even bigger grasp for image. They brought in Douglas-Home. Be

:40:54.:41:00.

brought in to be younger names. By 1964, after 13 years of Tory rule,

:41:00.:41:06.

in a vastly changing Britain, Harold Wilson managed to win by

:41:06.:41:12.

Annie four seats. You have given an interesting point, everyone looks

:41:12.:41:18.

at the drama, the mistakes made, but the key to reshuffles is, do

:41:18.:41:25.

they result in a change of policy? Objection to Selwyn Lloyd was the

:41:25.:41:33.

sense that he was too much a cautious Chancellor. What happened

:41:33.:41:36.

was that led to an expansionary policy, that is really what

:41:36.:41:41.

produced such a close result, because there was an enormous boom.

:41:41.:41:48.

The Hanover last of for the rest of the Sixties. Most people don't care

:41:48.:41:55.

who moved, but if it results in a change of policy, that is where the

:41:55.:41:59.

evidence shows. This was a reshuffle that did have that impact.

:41:59.:42:04.

Would any Prime Minister attempt to do this sort of thing to date?

:42:04.:42:10.

Margaret Thatcher, when she moved Geoffrey Howe out of the foreign

:42:11.:42:15.

office, that was a botched job for all kinds of reasons, there was a

:42:15.:42:22.

row about who was going to live in which house, but seven other

:42:22.:42:25.

cabinet ministers changed jobs, it camouflaged the fact that she was

:42:25.:42:32.

really getting rid of one. I have seen reshuffles go wrong again.

:42:32.:42:38.

many lessons, I would suggest for David Cameron. Do you see any

:42:38.:42:43.

reshuffle? I think even this morning, people are saying, is it

:42:43.:42:49.

coming this side of the recess? think he will. The problem for

:42:49.:42:53.

David Cameron is he would love to reshuffle some of the Lib Dems! But

:42:53.:42:58.

of course he can't. So he was stuck with those elements. Should he

:42:59.:43:04.

change his Chancellor? I think there is a growing case, I think by

:43:04.:43:07.

September or October he's going to have to think about that carefully.

:43:07.:43:11.

I'm not advocating what we saw in those days, but I don't think

:43:11.:43:19.

they'd Cameron says it is sticking to along to the same people to stop

:43:19.:43:27.

even though the policies are not working. I think the fault in the

:43:27.:43:34.

years between Blair and Gordon Brown was the constant her labour.

:43:34.:43:39.

-- turnover. You have got to balance out not only the people but

:43:39.:43:42.

also the jobs. If you make the business secretary a Tory, when are

:43:43.:43:47.

you going to get an Lib-Dem? That is why many conditions have very

:43:47.:43:51.

few reshuffles. The Germans didn't know what the reshuffle meant, they

:43:51.:43:55.

thought it was some weird British thing. In the Scottish coalition,

:43:55.:44:00.

they hardly had any. The headline, Night of the Long Knives, that was

:44:00.:44:08.

in the Express at the time? I think it was. That is the days it was the

:44:08.:44:14.

most influential paper in the country. I think it brought back

:44:14.:44:18.

memories of Nazi Germany, as well? I think that is where the original

:44:18.:44:23.

phrase came from, it was at an episode of German history when all

:44:23.:44:31.

sorts of people were butchered. But he made a brilliant comeback, a

:44:31.:44:35.

great lesson for how to behave after you are sacked. Most people

:44:35.:44:41.

get bitter and angry, but Selwyn Lloyd was impeccable. People kept

:44:41.:44:45.

saying, he is behaving so well. He has been badly done by the stock

:44:45.:44:50.

must be a way of bringing him back. That is exactly what happened.

:44:51.:44:55.

Although this was an attempt to modernise the Macmillan

:44:55.:45:00.

Conservatives at the time, when it came to the succession to Macmillan

:45:00.:45:04.

himself, Iain Macleod was still able to write that this was

:45:04.:45:08.

entirely a magic circle of old Etonians that had taken the

:45:08.:45:17.

decision to bring in Alec Douglas- Home. But another thing was Butler,

:45:17.:45:22.

who was the source of the Daily Mail story. Do we know that for

:45:22.:45:32.

sure? Absolutely. He was a Labour supporter? By a clutch of course

:45:32.:45:38.

wanted to do everything -- but of course wanted to do everything he

:45:38.:45:48.
:45:48.:45:52.

could. Macmillan wanted to exclude Do not go away. We are sticking

:45:52.:46:02.
:46:02.:46:04.

with a theme. It is Friday the 13th. Today can be a man lacking day. --

:46:04.:46:12.

an unlucky day. What better than a Daily Politics celebration of the

:46:12.:46:22.
:46:22.:46:28.

There are plenty of elections around the world where candidates

:46:28.:46:38.
:46:38.:46:40.

are cheated of victory by cheating. But when you are standing for the

:46:40.:46:44.

most important office in the world, you don't expect to lose the race

:46:44.:46:47.

on a technical glitch - foiled by hanging cads - despite getting more

:46:47.:46:50.

votes than the other guy! -- chads. You're the front runner. The MPs

:46:50.:46:53.

have voted for you, the party members have voted for you. And

:46:53.:47:00.

then on the final transfer of votes you get beaten by your kid brother.

:47:00.:47:06.

Never more have the words you are so getting Bob quashed after this

:47:06.:47:14.

being carefully whispered. The career of Michael Portillo was

:47:14.:47:19.

interrupted by the voters of Enfield. By the time he finally did

:47:19.:47:29.
:47:29.:47:33.

get to run for the leadership, he missed the train and came in third.

:47:33.:47:35.

Speaking of which, meet William Huskisson, Liverpool MP and former

:47:36.:47:39.

President of the Board of Trade, who went to Manchester to open the

:47:39.:47:42.

world's first passenger railway and while doing so got run over by one

:47:42.:47:45.

becoming the world's first railway casualty, the first person to be

:47:45.:47:47.

taken to hospital on a train and the first railway fatality!

:47:48.:47:50.

Portillo should make a programme about him. And, finally, why keep

:47:50.:47:58.

all the bad luck to yourself, when you can redistribute it? Mate Lib

:47:58.:48:03.

Dem Lem bit opaque. He backed Charles Kennedy. He lost his own

:48:03.:48:10.

seat despite a large swing to the Lib Dems nationally. -- at Lembit

:48:10.:48:20.
:48:20.:48:23.

Jonathan Aitken and Peter Red Rock are still with us. Napoleon said he

:48:23.:48:27.

needed lucky generals and not just military experts. Politicians need

:48:28.:48:34.

to be lucky as well, don't they? Timing is key. You want to go into

:48:34.:48:40.

Parliament on the upswing for your party. We have had two long periods

:48:40.:48:44.

of one-party rule. A lot of Labour politicians never made it to the

:48:45.:48:49.

Cabinet. They did not have ministerial careers at all. 18

:48:49.:48:56.

years later, they were in that early Forties. They were touching

:48:56.:49:06.
:49:06.:49:06.

60 and did not have Koreas. Exactly 60 and did not have Koreas. Exactly

:49:06.:49:16.
:49:16.:49:21.

. Margaret Thatcher had Arthur Scargill running the coal miners'

:49:21.:49:28.

union. She was lucky in enemies. She had a counter of bailing

:49:28.:49:35.

tendency which was incredible tenacity. Another politician on the

:49:35.:49:40.

other side of the Atlantic, Richard Nixon, was very unhappy at one

:49:40.:49:47.

stage. He won the election in 1960. That was very bad luck. He fought

:49:47.:49:55.

back against continuous faults. In the end he got elected. Then he had

:49:55.:50:01.

some rotten luck over Watergate. Where you are unlucky or lucky as a

:50:01.:50:07.

politician? I made my own luck. Sometimes events for the away.

:50:07.:50:12.

Sometimes you can help events to for your way. Sometimes you can be

:50:12.:50:15.

caught but something that - as a good buy something that really is

:50:15.:50:25.

bad luck. Two-year member Neil Kinnock on the beach? -- caught by

:50:25.:50:31.

something that really is bad luck. Little things like that, it is

:50:31.:50:36.

really bad luck. They took you for years to come these images. Tony

:50:36.:50:41.

Blair was quite lucky as a politician to begin with. He says

:50:41.:50:47.

he had the bad luck of some vehicle Gordon Brown next door. He also

:50:47.:50:57.
:50:57.:51:02.

chose his luck. I still think it is about management ability and

:51:02.:51:08.

choices. In recent times, who has been a lucky politician? I agree,

:51:08.:51:17.

Tony Blair. He got out at the right time. There was an element of

:51:17.:51:24.

Margaret Thatcher. Tony Blair had more perfect timing. I nominate

:51:24.:51:30.

John Major. He was fairly obscure as a Cabinet minister. Raptures at

:51:30.:51:40.
:51:40.:51:42.

the top and he shot up. All things to all men! -- ructions. Then of

:51:42.:51:48.

course he had something wrong with him when he had to step up.

:51:48.:51:54.

wisdom teeth! That was lucky. Great fun to go with these things. Back

:51:54.:52:00.

to modern times. It has been another seven days in coalition

:52:00.:52:10.
:52:10.:52:12.

land. Here it is ever fresher of the be combined in 60 seconds. --

:52:12.:52:17.

the week gone by. The Buckley's rate fixing scandal rumbled on.

:52:17.:52:24.

George Osborne tried to pin it on to the last Labour government. Was

:52:24.:52:30.

it the Chancellor's finest hour? No answer. Tory MPs are revolting. Ask

:52:30.:52:37.

David Cameron. 91 of his troops rebelled over reform. The PM was

:52:37.:52:45.

ready to point the finger at the ringleader. It turned at G4S had

:52:45.:52:50.

provided the few and not the many in terms of security staff for the

:52:50.:52:56.

Olympic site. He called in the Army. PMQs is normally pretty rowdy but

:52:56.:53:06.
:53:06.:53:07.

the volume turned up to 11 this week. Did not quite catch that!

:53:07.:53:16.

High time for a bit of recess banter. Watch out for the arm!

:53:16.:53:25.

Where does the coalition go from here? There used to be talk of a

:53:25.:53:33.

so-called coalition 2.0. On that front, things have gone curiously

:53:33.:53:39.

quiet. Is it possible the idea has been quietly dropped? We are joined

:53:39.:53:47.

by Linda Jack, who may be able to shed some light. As far as I

:53:47.:53:54.

understand it, there will be a mid- term review. It will look at how

:53:55.:53:59.

the coalition has come along in terms of the objectives. Whether

:53:59.:54:04.

they have been met or not. It is about embedding those objectives.

:54:04.:54:12.

The whole idea of actually having a follow-up coalition 2.0 has been

:54:12.:54:17.

dropped. That is a bit sad really. Isn't the reason they are doing

:54:17.:54:22.

this because they cannot agree on anything to go forward? The one

:54:22.:54:28.

thing they have stuck to together has been deficit reduction. Despite

:54:28.:54:31.

people like me trying committee cannot get a cigarette paper

:54:31.:54:35.

between the two party leaders and their spokesmen on that. They have

:54:36.:54:39.

discovered that is about the only thing they agree on. There is

:54:39.:54:43.

probably an element of truth in that. I was not in favour of the

:54:43.:54:51.

coalition agreement. You wanted another agreement on Mark 2? If we

:54:51.:54:58.

were going to be stuck there, we ought to have a Mark 2. It is

:54:58.:55:02.

important for us. When we were discussing it, the feeling was it

:55:02.:55:08.

would give us more leverage if there was an agreement. We a seeing

:55:08.:55:12.

people like Michael Gove coming out with another announcement. They

:55:12.:55:16.

will get their policies in through the back door. Who pulled the plug

:55:16.:55:26.
:55:26.:55:28.

on there? I have no idea. I do! You do! I presume the quartet. Which

:55:28.:55:38.
:55:38.:55:38.

one Aberu Kebede in the quartet? A tall, angular chap. -- which one in

:55:38.:55:45.

the quartet? It was Danny Alexander who told us that the plug had been

:55:45.:55:53.

pulled. The problem, at the moment, they have either implemented bits

:55:53.:55:59.

of the original agreement or they are unable to do House of Lords

:55:59.:56:03.

reform. It is kind of done. They have still have another three years

:56:03.:56:08.

to go before the next election. Without a programme they are more

:56:08.:56:13.

of a Mikey just to fight all the time. What will make do for the

:56:13.:56:21.

next few years? -- more likely just to fight. The idea it is just going

:56:21.:56:26.

to the House of Lords for the next three years has gone out of the

:56:26.:56:29.

window. The Conservatives are still insisting that the Lib Dems have

:56:29.:56:33.

done brilliantly out of this. They have all their demands and the

:56:34.:56:42.

Tories have nothing. The dilemma we have at the moment is I think we

:56:42.:56:46.

are continually being caught on the back foot. Another idea comes out

:56:46.:56:50.

and we just have to make a public denouncement of it all just go

:56:51.:56:55.

along with it. At least the coalition agreement has some

:56:55.:56:59.

framework around it. You could say it was not in the coalition

:56:59.:57:04.

agreement. The Lib Dems are not coming up with their own ideas.

:57:04.:57:08.

is frustrating for those of us who work on the committee. A lot of

:57:09.:57:14.

work went into the mid-term review. Some of them you will see at

:57:14.:57:20.

conference. Was it the idea Beth they should go forward to make up a

:57:20.:57:26.

new coalition agreement? -- that. The committee and the conference

:57:26.:57:31.

could vote on it - whether they liked it or not. You would not be

:57:31.:57:38.

able to determine what was inept. will come to you in a second. -- in

:57:38.:57:43.

it. Denny think it's more likely that some time in 2014, you will

:57:43.:57:47.

both go your separate ways? Not that that will provoke an election.

:57:47.:57:52.

The Conservatives will continue as a minority government. You will

:57:52.:57:56.

both go your separate ways and you will both want to say you can re-

:57:56.:58:06.

establish its own individual identities. That is quite important.

:58:06.:58:15.

I would like it done tomorrow. it will happen in 2014, why not

:58:15.:58:19.

2013? When you start to talk about it all the time you have a big

:58:20.:58:25.

issue. The first ticking time bomb is the economy. Budget deficit may

:58:26.:58:31.

be increasing again and the economy shrinking. The second thing is

:58:31.:58:36.

Europe. What will happen with that and any new constitutional treaty?

:58:36.:58:43.

What will the UK do about it. is it for today. Thank you to all

:58:43.:58:50.

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