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Afternoon, folks. Welcome to the Daily Politics. The programme for | :00:42. | :00:46. | |
those of you who could not find Yorke remote-controlled and could | :00:46. | :00:55. | |
not go to BBC One for the tennis. The UK economy shrank again towards | :00:55. | :00:58. | |
the end of last year, and stagnated overall in 2012. Chancellor George | :00:58. | :01:00. | |
Osborne has presided over yet another dip in economic growth. At | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
minus 0.3%, it's even worse than expected for the final quarter of | :01:03. | :01:12. | |
last year. But it's not my fault, guv! Deputy Prime Minister Nick | :01:12. | :01:15. | |
Clegg now says the Coalition cut public investment too hard and too | :01:15. | :01:19. | |
fast. Boris tells George to stop talking up austerity, and even the | :01:19. | :01:23. | |
IMF says it's time to ease up. But will the government really change | :01:23. | :01:26. | |
course? Would allowing 16 year-olds the right to vote help bring | :01:26. | :01:30. | |
Parliament into the 21st Century? Or is this, as one MP put it | :01:30. | :01:32. | |
yesterday, simply a 'pathetic attempt' by his colleagues to look | :01:32. | :01:42. | |
:01:42. | :01:58. | ||
'trendy in their constituencies'? All that in the next hour or so. On | :01:58. | :02:02. | |
Tuesday the latest borrowing figures are were published with | :02:02. | :02:12. | |
December's borrowing coming in higher at �15.4 billion. If that is | :02:12. | :02:15. | |
a trend that continues it would see the government overshoot the Office | :02:15. | :02:17. | |
for Budget Responsibility's borrowing forecast for the year. On | :02:17. | :02:19. | |
Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
forecasts for the UK, predicting the country's economy will only | :02:21. | :02:30. | |
grow by 1% in 2012-13, and by 1.9% next year. That's about a third of | :02:30. | :02:33. | |
1% less than they'd been predicting before. But Wednesday did see good | :02:33. | :02:37. | |
news for the Government on the jobs front. The number of people out of | :02:37. | :02:44. | |
work fell by 37,000 to 2.49 million in the three months to November. | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
But this morning there was that really worrying news that the | :02:47. | :02:50. | |
economy contracted by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2012, according to | :02:50. | :03:00. | |
:03:00. | :03:01. | ||
the Office of National Statistics. That's worse than most of the | :03:01. | :03:05. | |
forecasters had hoped. If it shrinks again in the next three | :03:05. | :03:09. | |
months we will officially be back in recession. Well, in Davos, the | :03:10. | :03:12. | |
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne gave his reaction to | :03:12. | :03:20. | |
today's figures. We have a reminder today that Britain faces a very | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
difficult economic situation. A reminder that last year was | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
particularly difficult. We face problems at home with the debts | :03:27. | :03:32. | |
built up over many years, and problems abroad with the Eurozone | :03:32. | :03:35. | |
where we export our products which is deep in recession. We can either | :03:35. | :03:39. | |
run away from the problems or confront them. I am determined to | :03:39. | :03:45. | |
confront them so we can create jobs for the people of this country. | :03:45. | :03:52. | |
That was the Chancellor. With this in here is Craig Wood House and | :03:52. | :04:01. | |
Mary Riddell. Welcome to you both. First, Danny Alexander joins me now. | :04:01. | :04:08. | |
He did not go to Davos, and got to come on hearing stead. What is it | :04:08. | :04:12. | |
like to preside over the worst recovery in 100 years? The figures | :04:12. | :04:15. | |
are a reminder of the severity and difficulty of the challenges we | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
face as a country. They are disappointing figures, but not | :04:19. | :04:27. | |
surprising. It is what the OBR forecast in the last month. The two | :04:27. | :04:30. | |
is the overall picture I'm looking up. By some calculations, this is | :04:30. | :04:37. | |
the worst recovery since the 1830s. There is no recovery, is there? | :04:37. | :04:40. | |
recover at -- economy is recovering from the deepest recession and | :04:40. | :04:44. | |
worst financial crisis since the Second World War, or some would | :04:44. | :04:49. | |
argue before that. We are doing so in eight World Environment, whereas | :04:49. | :04:55. | |
you have said before, as the Chancellor said as well, that the | :04:55. | :04:58. | |
Eurozone is going through major difficulties. That is the major | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
export market and that is slowing the economy down. The impact of the | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
banking crisis is deeper than we thought. But where we are also | :05:06. | :05:11. | |
seeing, as you fairly observed, not just the deficit falling over the | :05:11. | :05:16. | |
first two and a half years. But also employment, over one million | :05:16. | :05:21. | |
jobs created. In 2012 it was the most number of jobs created in the | :05:21. | :05:25. | |
private sector in the British economy since 1989. There are | :05:25. | :05:28. | |
positives as well as the grave difficulties. You talk about | :05:28. | :05:33. | |
recovery, but the economy is not recovering. Effectively, the | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
economy is no bigger as we sit here today and it was when he formed the | :05:38. | :05:44. | |
coalition. It is stagnating. Correct? That is a consequence of | :05:44. | :05:47. | |
the severe problems we are dealing with as a country. When we came | :05:47. | :05:51. | |
into office, we inherited from the Labour Party a huge mess in public | :05:51. | :05:57. | |
finances, and unbalanced economy. All the emphasis had been on the | :05:57. | :06:00. | |
banking in the City of London to drive growth, and that is the part | :06:00. | :06:04. | |
of the economy that collapsed. We put in place policies, whether it | :06:04. | :06:10. | |
was guarantees for infrastructure, or capital spending on transport, | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
investing in apprenticeships, things designed to make the British | :06:14. | :06:18. | |
economy more competitive. The you knew you had inherited a mess. That | :06:18. | :06:25. | |
is why you formed a coalition. But having no new inherited the mess | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
you proceeded on the basis that the economy would have grown by 6%, and | :06:29. | :06:33. | |
it hasn't grown at all. I don't understand why you knew what was a | :06:34. | :06:39. | |
mess but she thought it would grow by 6%. Now you say it is a mess and | :06:39. | :06:47. | |
it hasn't grown tall. We set up the OBR. -- at all. They produced an | :06:47. | :06:51. | |
economic forecast and that is what we worked on at the time. They | :06:51. | :06:54. | |
produced an assessment of why the forecasts were wrong. The factors | :06:54. | :06:59. | |
they cited are the ones I have mentioned. The crisis in the | :06:59. | :07:03. | |
Eurozone, and the impact it had on the British economy. The impact of | :07:03. | :07:08. | |
the financial crisis on the economy as a whole. High inflation in the | :07:08. | :07:12. | |
earlier part of the parliament. All of those things meant that the | :07:12. | :07:14. | |
circumstances were even more difficult than we expected. That | :07:14. | :07:18. | |
does not mean that the path of repairing the public finances and | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
trying to make economy more competitive and investing in the | :07:22. | :07:27. | |
things we need, like infrastructure and skills, is the wrong mix. Yes, | :07:27. | :07:34. | |
the road is difficult. I think that is the right mix. More of the same | :07:34. | :07:39. | |
then? If you think about this coming year, you have the largest | :07:39. | :07:42. | |
income tax cut coming through the pipeline in a generation, something | :07:42. | :07:46. | |
they came from the Liberal Democrat election manifesto. The guarantees | :07:46. | :07:51. | |
put in place for infrastructure and housing coming through the system. | :07:51. | :07:58. | |
The it still you say the economy will only grow by 1%? -- but still. | :07:58. | :08:00. | |
The Green Investment Bank we have established, all of these things | :08:00. | :08:04. | |
are designed to support the economy through these difficult | :08:04. | :08:09. | |
circumstances. But it is not growing, Mr Alexander. It is not | :08:09. | :08:15. | |
working. You have no recovery. It is not working. As I say, we are | :08:15. | :08:19. | |
facing severe challenges in the country. If anything should remind | :08:19. | :08:23. | |
us of the severity of those challenges, it is today's figures. | :08:23. | :08:28. | |
That mix of policies I have described, we have to get the | :08:28. | :08:35. | |
finances under control. But the deficit is rising again, correct? | :08:35. | :08:41. | |
For this financial year, April to December, the deficit is �7 billion | :08:41. | :08:46. | |
higher than the same period last year. Correct? If you look at the | :08:46. | :08:49. | |
financial year we are in, the OBR produced a forecast last month | :08:49. | :08:57. | |
where they said the deficit would fall. But the OBR is famous for | :08:57. | :09:03. | |
getting everything wrong. That is why you were in a mess. Why don't | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
you fire the OBR? They keep giving you the wrong predictions. I think | :09:07. | :09:13. | |
it is important we have independent people doing this. Even when they | :09:13. | :09:16. | |
are wrong? I think other independent forecasters made | :09:16. | :09:23. | |
similar errors for similar reasons. It is a real blow to you if the | :09:23. | :09:28. | |
deficit keeps rising. You keep asking me questions and I can only | :09:28. | :09:33. | |
get a third of it out as an answer. I'm still trying to answer three | :09:33. | :09:38. | |
questions ago. Let me just finish the point. Do you accept that the | :09:38. | :09:43. | |
deficit will be higher this year than last year? I accept the | :09:43. | :09:46. | |
forecast that the OBR produced a month ago, setting out what they | :09:46. | :09:50. | |
expect the deficit to beat. You know as well as I do that the | :09:50. | :09:55. | |
monthly figures for all of these things very. I April to December is | :09:55. | :10:01. | |
a lot of mums. I want to bring in my guess -- a lot of mums. Do you | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
share the regret from at Nick Clegg that he cut the capital spending | :10:05. | :10:13. | |
too fast and too deep? We inherited the plans for deeper cuts. If you | :10:13. | :10:18. | |
look at the spending review in 2010, we added �2 billion the year to | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
capital spending. And in the Autumn Statement there was another 5 | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
billion. And just last December another 5 billion. I agree that | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
extra capital investment is important for the economy. We have | :10:29. | :10:33. | |
made decisions that, in the context of the difficulties we face, put | :10:33. | :10:39. | |
more capital spending into the system. But did you cut it too fast | :10:39. | :10:47. | |
and too deep? We added to it. He's absolutely right to say that the | :10:47. | :10:51. | |
cuts Labour had planned were too deep, which is why we added to it | :10:51. | :10:56. | |
in the spending review and in the Autumn Statement. But he is saying | :10:56. | :11:01. | |
that we still cut too fast and too deep. I don't think he does say | :11:01. | :11:07. | |
that, actually. I've read the interview. Lead me just answer the | :11:07. | :11:15. | |
point. But - let me. When we came in, looking at the Capital plans we | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
inherited, looking at the financial pressures we face, we will try and | :11:18. | :11:23. | |
do more. We were able to Addy in in the spending review an extra �2 | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
billion per year and were able to spend money on more that mattered | :11:27. | :11:32. | |
to the economy. For example, we are spending more on transport | :11:32. | :11:36. | |
investment, which is one of the best things for the economy than | :11:36. | :11:40. | |
our predecessors did in the last five years. Our guarantees on | :11:40. | :11:45. | |
housing is something that no governments have done before. | :11:45. | :11:53. | |
aren't building them. Which GCSE economics textbook had you not read | :11:53. | :11:59. | |
it that if you cut capital spending it would hit the economy? Why is it | :11:59. | :12:03. | |
taking so long to realise, when any student with telly, that is what is | :12:03. | :12:11. | |
happening? -- would tell you. From 2010 when we set out the parliament | :12:11. | :12:16. | |
that view, we had to be prudent and careful. In the end the biggest | :12:16. | :12:21. | |
economic problem we faced was the fact we were spending �150 billion | :12:21. | :12:24. | |
more than we were raising. In that context, we had to be careful about | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
where we put money. But also, subsequently, in the Autumn | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
Statement where we made tough decisions about welfare benefits, | :12:33. | :12:36. | |
and in the short term, have reinvested some of the money to | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
have further investment in transport and broadband and new | :12:40. | :12:45. | |
schools and housing. Mary is jumping to ask a question. It would | :12:45. | :12:51. | |
seem to me that this is a catastrophic figure. The fact we | :12:51. | :12:57. | |
have had a lack of growth for four out of five quarters with the | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
exception being the quarter with the Olympic Games. Clearly we are | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
not going to have one of those every year. Andrew is right, of | :13:03. | :13:11. | |
course, that this is the worst four year period since pre-Victorian | :13:11. | :13:17. | |
times. Give him a question. The question is, is not part of the | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
problem that you have sucked so much demand out of things with | :13:21. | :13:28. | |
welfare cuts, the lack of capital spending, to which Nick Clegg | :13:28. | :13:37. | |
alluded, with tax rises and so on. We need a question. A what are you | :13:37. | :13:45. | |
going to do to remedy that? interrupt your other guests less | :13:45. | :13:51. | |
than you do me. I agree with Mary that we inherited the most | :13:51. | :13:55. | |
catastrophic series of figures in terms of the deficit we had to deal | :13:56. | :14:01. | |
with, the lack of competitiveness and the economy. The competitive | :14:01. | :14:05. | |
deficit, if you like. The lack of capital over many years. The | :14:05. | :14:08. | |
welfare system that was spending out of control. All those things | :14:08. | :14:13. | |
had to be dealt with. In the end, one of the most important things we | :14:13. | :14:16. | |
have done as a government is re- establish confidence and | :14:16. | :14:20. | |
credibility in Britain's ability to deal with public finances. Getting | :14:20. | :14:24. | |
interest rates down benefits millions of people and businesses | :14:24. | :14:28. | |
in the country. You mention the international view of what we are | :14:28. | :14:31. | |
doing, but the sign is we could lose the triple A credit rating, | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
and everything you have bet the farm on has then gone out the | :14:34. | :14:40. | |
window. Is there anything you can do? Looking at the figures today, | :14:40. | :14:46. | |
are we looking at a depression rather than a recession? These | :14:46. | :14:49. | |
figures are a reminder of the difficult challenges we continue to | :14:49. | :14:54. | |
face, to deal with the catastrophic mess we inherited when we came into | :14:54. | :14:59. | |
office. I think it is important we are clear that we will continue to | :14:59. | :15:03. | |
take the difficult decisions that are necessary. I have always said | :15:03. | :15:06. | |
that the credit rating agencies are not the be-all and end-all. What | :15:06. | :15:10. | |
matters in the end is having the right policy mix to ensure that the | :15:10. | :15:13. | |
country continues to be able to command credibility and keep the | :15:13. | :15:19. | |
interest rates low. That is what we are determined to do. That is what | :15:19. | :15:22. | |
a further difficult decisions be made in the autumn statement | :15:22. | :15:26. | |
demonstrated, and we need to continue to demonstrate that to | :15:26. | :15:29. | |
maintain the benefits of that credibility to this country. Do you | :15:29. | :15:35. | |
wish you had gone to Davos? very glad I came here, Andrew! | :15:35. | :15:39. | |
are delighted you came. You would have had fun in Davos. Have you | :15:39. | :15:45. | |
ever been? I've never been. Sure we go together next year? We can go | :15:45. | :15:49. | |
next year and do the interview there. Thank you for coming in this | :15:49. | :15:55. | |
morning. Good to see you. Joining us now from Nottingham is Labour's | :15:55. | :16:00. | |
Shadow Treasury spokesman Chris Leslie. When you look at what the | :16:00. | :16:04. | |
OBR said in 2010, it said that under Alastair Darling you cut the | :16:04. | :16:08. | |
deficit by a quarter, and that is what the government has done, so is | :16:08. | :16:11. | |
there that much difference between what the government is doing and | :16:11. | :16:16. | |
what she planned to do if you stayed in power? -- what you | :16:16. | :16:21. | |
planned to do. I a big gap, and I think the question to Danny | :16:21. | :16:23. | |
Alexander hit the nail on their head. They have not cut the deficit | :16:23. | :16:28. | |
in the way they have spinning. When you look at the figures and | :16:28. | :16:32. | |
performance for this year, the deficit is widening. Borrowing is | :16:32. | :16:36. | |
going up and it is adding to the debt burden. Why's that? Because we | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
have not got the engine of economic growth to make sure we have revenue | :16:40. | :16:45. | |
coming into the Treasury and to get some of the public expenditure on | :16:45. | :16:47. | |
welfare lowered. That is the fundamental problem with the | :16:47. | :16:54. | |
figures today. If you have a flat economy, or worse, it shrinks back, | :16:54. | :16:59. | |
it will make solving the deficit issue far more difficult. All we | :16:59. | :17:04. | |
heard from Danny Alexander was, more of the same, we will continue. | :17:04. | :17:07. | |
They claim that is a strong thing to do. Actually, that is the | :17:07. | :17:11. | |
cowardly thing to do. If they don't have the strength to say that they | :17:11. | :17:18. | |
were wrong and they should not have raised VAT and snub doubt the | :17:18. | :17:20. | |
conference in the economy, and should not have been cutting tax | :17:20. | :17:25. | |
credits -- snubbed belt. That is what has been partly responsible | :17:25. | :17:30. | |
for the problems with the economy today. Do you agree with Nick Clegg | :17:30. | :17:33. | |
that the coalition was wrong to inherit and then implement the | :17:33. | :17:38. | |
Labour cuts to capital spending? They like to keep characterising | :17:38. | :17:42. | |
the previous Government's plans as somehow a course that they were | :17:42. | :17:46. | |
pursuing. In fact, the OBR has said that they have cut capital | :17:46. | :17:53. | |
expenditure much further. planned to cut it by 50%? We know | :17:53. | :17:59. | |
the figures, they are there, you planned to cut it by 50% and this | :17:59. | :18:04. | |
coalition Wendt and cut it by 50%. Was it wrong to do so? Should it | :18:04. | :18:08. | |
have ripped your plans up? I think it is clear we would have taken a | :18:08. | :18:11. | |
different course. I have been on your programme, how many times, | :18:12. | :18:16. | |
it's becoming far too repetitious, we are coming back, almost year | :18:16. | :18:21. | |
after year, to this flat lining economy with growth figures and the | :18:21. | :18:25. | |
borrowing figures getting worse and worse. How many more times we are | :18:25. | :18:29. | |
going to have to do this? What will it take for the government to wake | :18:29. | :18:33. | |
up and realise they have to change course? This is the most | :18:33. | :18:37. | |
frustrating thing. It is not just the Labour Party saying this, you | :18:37. | :18:43. | |
have commentators from Right and Left of centre, the IMF, even that | :18:43. | :18:48. | |
Nick Clegg showed us what he really knew to be the truth of how he | :18:48. | :18:53. | |
needed to mobilise public investment. I'm interested in you | :18:53. | :18:58. | |
saying that Labour was wrong in retrospect to cut capital spending | :18:58. | :19:03. | |
by 50%. The deficit is still currently running at an annual rate | :19:03. | :19:08. | |
of around �120 billion, maybe more than that. And it is certainly more | :19:08. | :19:14. | |
than last year. So if we have a deficit of 120 billion and the | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
economy is not growing at all, how much bigger does the deficit had to | :19:17. | :19:22. | |
become to get some growth? How much bigger would you make it? I think | :19:22. | :19:27. | |
it Danny Alexander it had come on the programme today and said they | :19:27. | :19:30. | |
would have a change in fiscal policy to stimulate the economy, if | :19:30. | :19:36. | |
that had meant borrowing in order to get growth going, people might | :19:36. | :19:41. | |
have given him the benefit of the doubt. But he has not said that. He | :19:41. | :19:46. | |
said he would just continue that. did not ask what Danny Alexander | :19:46. | :19:52. | |
was saying. I'm asking what you were doing. If the deficit of over | :19:52. | :19:58. | |
120 billion still results in that no growth, contrary to what most of | :19:58. | :20:01. | |
Keynesian economics tells us, how big does it have to be to get | :20:01. | :20:08. | |
growth? How big would you make it? My point is this. There are some | :20:08. | :20:10. | |
aspects of publics -- bending the contribute to growth, especially | :20:10. | :20:16. | |
with Investment in infrastructure - - public spending. That is not what | :20:16. | :20:19. | |
the Government is borrowing for. Their borrowing will pay the cost | :20:19. | :20:24. | |
of economic failure. It is going on those costs of welfare, keeping | :20:24. | :20:28. | |
people in low-paid jobs. The reason the growth figures matter today is | :20:28. | :20:36. | |
not because of a macro economic statistic. Fire understand that, | :20:36. | :20:40. | |
but you're not answering the question. Could I have an answer to | :20:40. | :20:50. | |
:20:50. | :20:57. | ||
Of course, that is a difficult choice to make, but I think it is | :20:57. | :21:00. | |
better to do something, rather than nothing. Whereas Danny Alexander | :21:00. | :21:04. | |
has confirmed to you that it is business as usual, no change. We | :21:04. | :21:10. | |
are now joined by the writer and broadcaster Max Kaiser. Welcome | :21:11. | :21:20. | |
:21:21. | :21:21. | ||
back to the programme. What do you make of it all? Well, the UK is | :21:21. | :21:27. | |
screwed. What does that mean? coalition made the wrong bet. They | :21:27. | :21:32. | |
supported the bond market, instead of the real economy. That strategic | :21:32. | :21:40. | |
mistake is now having its after- effects. They could have done | :21:40. | :21:42. | |
something to increase the competitiveness of the country, but | :21:42. | :21:46. | |
instead, they supported the bond market, they supported the bankers, | :21:46. | :21:54. | |
they supported bail-outs. They supported bankers being able to | :21:54. | :21:58. | |
support things like rent seeking. As a result, they have squeezed out | :21:58. | :22:02. | |
the real economy. Here is the joke - the bond market is now on the | :22:02. | :22:09. | |
verge of a major correction. mean British Government gilts? | :22:09. | :22:18. | |
gilt market. It was at a 300-year high. And the cost of insuring | :22:18. | :22:26. | |
British debt is rising. That's correct. And sterling parity is | :22:26. | :22:32. | |
slipping. So, there is a sense that these markets are now saying, hey, | :22:32. | :22:37. | |
this government's fiscal stance has no credibility. Absolutely. The | :22:37. | :22:43. | |
gilt market is starting to move down. Yields are moving up, but the | :22:43. | :22:49. | |
overall trend in this market, when you see a bond market like this, | :22:49. | :22:56. | |
trading at 300-year highs... your view, if the financial markets, | :22:56. | :23:01. | |
the people who lend us money to pay for this huge deficit, if they | :23:01. | :23:08. | |
start to lose... The one thing the Government has always said, is, | :23:08. | :23:12. | |
interest rates are low, people are lending us money, we have got | :23:12. | :23:16. | |
confidence, but if that confidence goes, and as you say, there are | :23:16. | :23:21. | |
straws in the wind. The rating agencies are saying they are going | :23:21. | :23:27. | |
to downgrade British debt. So, what is the consequence? The markets are | :23:27. | :23:31. | |
poised to attack the British pound double what are the consequences? | :23:31. | :23:37. | |
That the cost of funding will be sharply revised upwards by 200 base | :23:37. | :23:42. | |
points, which will mean the cost of funding, a big part of the debt is | :23:42. | :23:45. | |
the interest costs, and that will go up substantially. So, mortgages | :23:46. | :23:52. | |
will go up. Yes, and a lot of people are on tracker funds, which | :23:52. | :23:56. | |
will trigger another real-estate crisis. I wonder whether this is | :23:56. | :24:01. | |
all very theoretical and high and mighty. It seems to me that no-one | :24:01. | :24:04. | |
else in the world is doing much better, so where will the bond | :24:04. | :24:09. | |
market go? If everybody is being downgraded, are we not all in the | :24:09. | :24:14. | |
same place? Welcome what's happening is, every single currency | :24:14. | :24:18. | |
in the world is depreciating against gold and silver. Gold is | :24:18. | :24:22. | |
now becoming the de facto global currency. That's why Germany and | :24:22. | :24:26. | |
the Netherlands are repatriating their gold. And also of France. | :24:26. | :24:29. | |
Because they do not trust each other. That is why these bond | :24:29. | :24:33. | |
markets are problematic, they do not trust each other, they want | :24:33. | :24:43. | |
their gold back in the vault. That's where these funds are going. | :24:43. | :24:48. | |
I have been saying for five a six years to position in gold and | :24:48. | :24:53. | |
silver, because these policies are completely irresponsible. There is | :24:53. | :24:57. | |
too much kowtowing to the City, too much largesse to the banks. They | :24:57. | :25:01. | |
have squeezed out the real economy, and now, the day of reckoning is | :25:01. | :25:11. | |
:25:11. | :25:12. | ||
upon us. It all sounds very apocalyptic. The bond apocalypse! | :25:12. | :25:16. | |
But to get back to your original proposition, where does this end, | :25:17. | :25:22. | |
as far as the ordinary voter is concerned? I was watching The | :25:22. | :25:26. | |
Politics Show last night, and Michael Portillo was talking about | :25:26. | :25:32. | |
the British pound devaluing. Bass already under way. Well, it is | :25:32. | :25:37. | |
going to get shopper. A lot of people think, that is good for | :25:37. | :25:43. | |
exports, but the pound was devalued by almost 20% after 2008, and | :25:43. | :25:48. | |
exports are up nominally. The That's right. That is a misnomer. | :25:48. | :25:52. | |
The cost of imports goes up, and there has been no net gain in | :25:52. | :25:59. | |
exports.. I had better let you go and count your gold. Excellent! | :25:59. | :26:03. | |
Come back and see us. Thank you very much. How old should you be to | :26:03. | :26:08. | |
have the vote? In next week's Scottish referendum, 16-year-olds | :26:08. | :26:12. | |
and 17-year-olds will be allowed to take part, we think. In most other | :26:12. | :26:18. | |
areas of Britain, you have to be 18. There has been a proposal by a Lib | :26:18. | :26:23. | |
Dem MP on lowering the voting age for all citizens. He says | :26:23. | :26:32. | |
citizenship buttons in schools have made young people better-informed. | :26:32. | :26:35. | |
This generation of young people have hard all of the educational | :26:35. | :26:39. | |
opportunities to understand the democratic system, yet we continue | :26:39. | :26:41. | |
to withhold from them the opportunity to put that knowledge | :26:41. | :26:46. | |
into practice. We should not continue to withhold the vote from | :26:46. | :26:51. | |
the best-educated generation of young people. I have been in | :26:51. | :26:56. | |
command of soldiers aged 16 and 17 who are desperate to go on | :26:56. | :26:59. | |
operations, but they are not allowed to do so because this | :26:59. | :27:02. | |
country considers them to be children still. Now, you are | :27:02. | :27:07. | |
suggesting... Forgive me, the Honourable Gentleman is suggesting | :27:07. | :27:11. | |
that a 16-year-old should be able to vote presumably to send soldiers | :27:11. | :27:15. | |
to war, but cannot go to war himself or herself until the age of | :27:15. | :27:21. | |
18. Extraordinary. Extending the franchise has historically always | :27:21. | :27:25. | |
been a good thing, and in a democracy, people should have the | :27:25. | :27:28. | |
right to shake the decisions which affect them, unless there is a | :27:28. | :27:34. | |
really good reason why not. So, my starting point is not why lower the | :27:34. | :27:39. | |
voting age, but actually, why not? Why prevent people from voting at | :27:39. | :27:49. | |
:27:49. | :27:52. | ||
the age of 16? The Scottish referendum actually gives us an | :27:52. | :27:57. | |
opportunity to see how this can work. Why don't we use the Scottish | :27:57. | :28:03. | |
referendum as a pilot to make sure that 16, 17, 18-year-olds have | :28:03. | :28:07. | |
their say in that referendum, and then we will have a look back on | :28:07. | :28:11. | |
how that referendum goes. Because actually, I agree, the genie is out | :28:11. | :28:14. | |
of the bottle once you have 16- year-olds voting in a referendum. | :28:14. | :28:18. | |
Then, to say to them, as soon as the general election happens next | :28:18. | :28:23. | |
year, to deny them the vote, that would be very difficult. There is | :28:23. | :28:27. | |
nothing so nauseating and ridiculous as seeing MPs trying to | :28:27. | :28:33. | |
court the youth vote, trying to appear trendy, by wanting to pursue | :28:33. | :28:36. | |
these kind of youth issues. That is what this is all about, MPs trying | :28:37. | :28:41. | |
to look trendy and youthful. It is rather pathetic. It would at least | :28:41. | :28:45. | |
be better if they had some sound logic behind her views, that they | :28:45. | :28:50. | |
really did trust 16-year-old to make decisions. But what we have | :28:50. | :28:55. | |
heard today is, we believe 16-year- olds are capable of voting, but | :28:55. | :28:57. | |
they are not capable of making other decisions which affect their | :28:57. | :29:05. | |
lives. At the end of the debate, MPs voted in favour of reducing the | :29:05. | :29:14. | |
voting age to 16, and they did so by 119 votes to 46. But of course, | :29:14. | :29:21. | |
the decision is not binding on the Government. It is likely to be | :29:21. | :29:26. | |
taken up in the near future. Before we go on, I can tell you, Andy | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
Murray has won against Federer in Australia, and he goes on to the | :29:29. | :29:36. | |
final on Sunday morning. Having caused us problems with The Daily | :29:36. | :29:40. | |
Politics, he will now do so with The Sunday Politics on Sunday | :29:40. | :29:46. | |
lunchtime! We wish him well in the final. With us now, Professor of | :29:46. | :29:51. | |
parliamentary government from the University of Nottingham, Messi, | :29:51. | :29:56. | |
and Rhammel Afflick, from the British Youth Council, who has been | :29:56. | :30:01. | |
on before. I do not detect any great clamour from youths to vote | :30:01. | :30:07. | |
at 16, is there? You will not find young people demonstrating and | :30:07. | :30:10. | |
doing all those sorts of things, because actually, a lot of young | :30:11. | :30:17. | |
people, as has been shown with the younger voters, who can vote at the | :30:17. | :30:20. | |
moment, they may not be as interested in politics as they | :30:20. | :30:24. | |
should be, perhaps. And so this is the reason why some and you would | :30:24. | :30:28. | |
find that sort of thing happening with this issue. And also, there | :30:28. | :30:35. | |
are a lot of other issues at the moment for young people. What is | :30:35. | :30:42. | |
the reason for nut -- not cutting the voting age? There are lots of | :30:42. | :30:46. | |
reasons, but the number one reason from my point of view would be that | :30:46. | :30:49. | |
this is the only bit of the British constitution which people | :30:49. | :30:53. | |
understand and support. There was a survey a couple of years ago which | :30:53. | :30:56. | |
looked at 11 different aspects of the British constitution and found | :30:57. | :31:01. | |
only one which most people said they understood and supported, and | :31:01. | :31:07. | |
that was votes at 18. So, all of this debate yesterday was about | :31:07. | :31:10. | |
reinvigorating politics. That was the argument given by Stephen | :31:10. | :31:16. | |
Williams, who moved the debate. It seems to me to be bizarre to start | :31:16. | :31:21. | |
doing that by taking the one bit that people like and changing it. | :31:21. | :31:26. | |
This is opposed by a 70% to 80% of the public. What a strange way to | :31:26. | :31:30. | |
reinvigorate democracy O. If there is no great clamour for it in the | :31:30. | :31:35. | |
first place, why would giving people something that they are not | :31:35. | :31:43. | |
desperate for reinvigorate politics? My argument is not that | :31:43. | :31:47. | |
giving 16-year-old the vote would suddenly make them want to vote. | :31:47. | :31:52. | |
That is a separate issue, which needs to be tackled. I think that | :31:52. | :31:56. | |
actually, maybe a lot of the older generation might not want 16-year- | :31:56. | :32:00. | |
old to be voting, but at the end of the day, they are not in that | :32:00. | :32:04. | |
position. They are not, for example, living independently in a situation | :32:04. | :32:09. | |
where they have no real say in maybe the local council and what | :32:09. | :32:14. | |
they are doing. At the moment, you can leave school, you can start | :32:14. | :32:21. | |
earning a proper salary from 16. Nobody ever wants the British | :32:21. | :32:27. | |
constitution changed. That is why we are stuck back in the... But we | :32:27. | :32:31. | |
have changed the constitution or the time - Scottish devolution, | :32:31. | :32:36. | |
Welsh devolution, referendum on proportional representation... | :32:36. | :32:41. | |
Nobody in his ever crying out for it. But on the broader point, I am | :32:41. | :32:47. | |
all for votes at 16. The point made in the debate was quite patronising, | :32:48. | :32:53. | |
that people have better citizenship classes and so on, as if the older | :32:53. | :32:57. | |
voter has some peculiar monopoly on sagacity and wisdom. But also, I | :32:58. | :33:02. | |
think a lot of what goes down in politics is aimed specifically at | :33:02. | :33:07. | |
very young people. In Tony Blair's talent, we had ASBOs, we had all of | :33:07. | :33:11. | |
these statutes which were specifically aimed at children and | :33:11. | :33:16. | |
young people. Now, we have got university tuition fees, which of | :33:16. | :33:20. | |
course affect exactly your generation. Child benefit is aimed | :33:20. | :33:25. | |
at children, we do not give them the vote. Of course, you have to | :33:25. | :33:32. | |
draw a reasonable, pragmatic line. 16 seems to be about right. Many of | :33:32. | :33:35. | |
the arguments Mary has just used would apply to 14-year-olds. So you | :33:35. | :33:40. | |
draw the line somewhere. When you look at the other ages at which we | :33:40. | :33:43. | |
are now beginning to allow people to do things, actually, those ages | :33:43. | :33:49. | |
are moving up to 18, not down to 16. Many people in that debate | :33:49. | :33:53. | |
yesterday in recent years voted not to allow people to buy fireworks | :33:53. | :33:58. | |
until 18, not to be able to go into tanning booths. Ages are going up, | :33:58. | :34:05. | |
not down. That is a crucial thing. This is a solution looking for a | :34:05. | :34:09. | |
problem. You only have to look at the people sat on the green benches | :34:09. | :34:13. | |
to see that. If we are going to tackle this issue, we have to look | :34:13. | :34:18. | |
across the board, what can you do at 16, 17 and 18. We have just | :34:18. | :34:21. | |
spent 20 minutes talking about the state of the economy. That has got | :34:21. | :34:25. | |
to be the priority. So therefore why not let young people have a | :34:25. | :34:28. | |
vote on the state of the economy since their futures will be | :34:28. | :34:36. | |
affected by it? Are we seriously going to spend days, weeks, months, | :34:36. | :34:42. | |
are arguing about this in Parliament? I think it is | :34:42. | :34:47. | |
interesting. It is now more likely to happen, then it was, not because | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
of yesterday's non-binding motion, with only 25% of MPs taking part, | :34:51. | :34:54. | |
but because of the fact that the Labour Party has begun to shift on | :34:54. | :35:00. | |
this. I think that is the key bit about yesterday's debate.. | :35:00. | :35:04. | |
Labour form the majority government after 2015, you think this could be | :35:04. | :35:08. | |
on the agenda? I think it is very likely to be in the manifesto.. | :35:09. | :35:13. | |
you think they would put it in the manifesto? I would not be at all | :35:13. | :35:20. | |
surprised. It is absolutely right. Miliband was a supporter before. | :35:20. | :35:25. | |
And of course, not even just a majority Labour government, but a | :35:25. | :35:29. | |
deal with the Lib Dems, who have long supported votes for 17-year- | :35:29. | :35:38. | |
olds. Researchers have been digging deeply, and it seems that all the | :35:38. | :35:41. | |
Channel Islands, they have it, Austria might have it, and Cuba, | :35:41. | :35:49. | |
but very few of the world's democracies - Cuba does not really | :35:49. | :35:56. | |
count - have votes at 16. Surprising, in a way. To have no we | :35:56. | :35:59. | |
should lead the way, and actually, if you look for examples within | :35:59. | :36:02. | |
political parties, for example, if it was a member of the | :36:02. | :36:06. | |
Conservatives, I could vote David Cameron to be leader of the | :36:06. | :36:10. | |
Conservatives, but I could not fur his party to be in government. So, | :36:10. | :36:17. | |
there is that argument as well. For me at the moment, I run my own | :36:17. | :36:25. | |
business. I am 18, almost 19. Immaculately dressed, compared to | :36:25. | :36:30. | |
most of the MPs that come in here. Will you come back and see us? | :36:30. | :36:34. | |
Definitely. Nottingham still the best politics department in the | :36:34. | :36:39. | |
country? Of course. Thank you both. It has been quite a week, starting | :36:39. | :36:43. | |
with the most appalling tragedy in the Algerian desert, moving on to | :36:43. | :36:47. | |
the inauguration speech in Washington, culminating with David | :36:47. | :36:51. | |
Cameron announcing the policy which would define his premiership, the | :36:51. | :37:01. | |
:37:01. | :37:02. | ||
in-out referendum in Europe. Here it all is in 60 seconds. This week, | :37:02. | :37:07. | |
that long awaited speech on Europe was made by David Cameron, giving | :37:07. | :37:10. | |
Conservative Euro-sceptics of the red meet they had been longing for. | :37:10. | :37:15. | |
To stay in the European Union on these new terms or to come out | :37:15. | :37:19. | |
altogether. It will be an in-out referendum.. However, they will | :37:19. | :37:24. | |
have to wait until after the next election forehead, and get the EU | :37:24. | :37:28. | |
to renegotiate first. Prince Harry headed back from Afghanistan, and | :37:28. | :37:32. | |
the MoD announced plans to cut more than 5,000. But there was good news | :37:32. | :37:36. | |
for UK jobs, with unemployment falling to its lowest level for 18 | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
months. The Deputy Prime Minister has been revealing yet more | :37:39. | :37:44. | |
information than he probably wanted to in his weekly phone-in show. | :37:44. | :37:49. | |
This time he did not rule out sending his son to private school. | :37:49. | :37:55. | |
And it was all stars and Blair as President Obama celebrated his | :37:55. | :38:05. | |
:38:05. | :38:10. | ||
So, plenty of political controversy in the week just gone. In the week | :38:10. | :38:14. | |
coming up, there will be a vote on Tory plans to change the | :38:14. | :38:17. | |
parliamentary boundaries, which they are likely to lose, I would | :38:17. | :38:23. | |
suspect. MPs will also be voting on gay marriage. Now, the week is | :38:23. | :38:26. | |
ending badly because of his economic figures. In the middle of | :38:26. | :38:30. | |
it, it was a good week for Mr Cameron, because suddenly, the Tory | :38:30. | :38:36. | |
press was actually on his side! And Labour is slightly, no more than | :38:36. | :38:41. | |
that, but slightly discombobulated by this referendum, are they not? | :38:41. | :38:46. | |
Yes, my guess is that Ed Miliband is not personally discombobulated, | :38:46. | :38:50. | |
but I think there is a very strong strand of opinion in the Labour | :38:50. | :38:54. | |
Party which would dearly have liked him to have announced his own | :38:54. | :39:00. | |
referendum, not on exit but on consent. That feeling that people | :39:00. | :39:04. | |
should be consulted is very strong in Labour, and I think it is very | :39:04. | :39:08. | |
difficult, the line of attack which is building up for them, which is | :39:08. | :39:12. | |
that Labour is the party which does not want to hear what the people | :39:12. | :39:16. | |
once. I think that will be difficult for Labour. I think it | :39:16. | :39:20. | |
slightly through them, and their message was a bit mixed. When you | :39:20. | :39:24. | |
look at the course of the economy, at this moment, you would have to | :39:24. | :39:30. | |
guess that come the election in 2015, the Tories in particular, and | :39:30. | :39:34. | |
a coalition, are not going to have a great story to tell. The economy | :39:34. | :39:38. | |
is hardly going to be in fine fettle, so you need something else | :39:38. | :39:41. | |
which you think will be popular, hence, we will give you a | :39:41. | :39:46. | |
referendum, they built not. Desk, and I think that message is very | :39:46. | :39:50. | |
simple to get across. As soon as Ed Miliband stood up in the Commons | :39:50. | :39:53. | |
and said, we do not believe in the referendum, the Tories immediately | :39:53. | :39:58. | |
said, this is a party which does not trust the people. You're right, | :39:58. | :40:05. | |
they will have to find things, the Tory party. But even for people who | :40:05. | :40:10. | |
may care deeply about Europe, or they may be strongly Euro-sceptic, | :40:10. | :40:13. | |
we have jobs, living standards, economic growth, having money to | :40:13. | :40:18. | |
put food on the table, these things matter more. Of course they do. | :40:18. | :40:23. | |
Europe comes 9th or 10th in the list of people's concerns. So did | :40:23. | :40:28. | |
the Scottish Parliament, but they still got devolution! True, but | :40:28. | :40:31. | |
while it might play well for Cameron in the short term, and buy | :40:31. | :40:37. | |
him some time, nonetheless, he has got boundary changes coming up, | :40:37. | :40:40. | |
discontented backbenchers who will be losing seats, and equally, gay | :40:40. | :40:44. | |
marriage, which will be a knotty issue for the Tories. So, | :40:44. | :40:47. | |
tactically he has played it very well in the short term, but I think | :40:47. | :40:51. | |
in the medium to long-term, all bets are off for him. | :40:51. | :40:56. | |
politically it works for him quite well, because it discombobulated | :40:56. | :41:04. | |
Labour a bit, and it kind of tackles UKIP, but also, he gets | :41:04. | :41:08. | |
nice headlines in the Tory press, including no, in the paper - when | :41:08. | :41:13. | |
did we last see that? That is Drincic, but he has ratcheted up | :41:13. | :41:18. | |
the potential consequences if he fails on it. -- that is true. If he | :41:18. | :41:22. | |
cannot get what he wants, if he comes back with what has been | :41:22. | :41:25. | |
described as a box of tiddly Binks from Europe, then everybody will be | :41:25. | :41:34. | |
unhappy. And he has to win the next election. That's it for today. | :41:34. | :41:38. | |
Thanks to both of you for being with us. Sorry we were a bit late | :41:38. | :41:43. | |
in starting but we got there in the end. And Andy Murray won, and he | :41:43. | :41:46. | |
will be in the final in Australia on Sunday morning. The One O'Clock | :41:46. | :41:51. |