10/05/2013 Daily Politics


10/05/2013

Andrew Neil with the latest political news, interviews and debate from Westminster, including Britain's EU membership and airport capacity in the south east.


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Politics. Nothing about Europe in the Queens speech. MPs could get a

:00:46.:00:50.

free vote on and on out EU referendum next week. Are we getting

:00:50.:00:57.

closer to a British exit? As a Prime Minister meet Vladimir

:00:57.:01:00.

Putin in Russia, Canada you'll be done to bring the Syrian conflict

:01:00.:01:06.

closer to a conclusion? A third runway at Heathrow? No, the

:01:06.:01:12.

airport needs four runways, says a committee of MPs, slamming Boris's

:01:12.:01:17.

idea of an estuary airport. And was it a mistake to welcome this

:01:17.:01:24.

man to Britain? Is his stand subhuman rights putting at risk our

:01:24.:01:31.

relationship with China? -- his stands on human rights.

:01:32.:01:36.

All that in the next hour. With us for the duration, Paul Waugh, editor

:01:36.:01:43.

of Politics Home, the website, and we hope to be joined by the editor

:01:43.:01:45.

of Prospect Magazine shortly, Bronwen Maddox, but she's stuck in

:01:45.:01:51.

traffic. Moment she arrives, we will whisper in. Let's start with the

:01:51.:01:56.

clear up with the coalition over the government's child -- flareup with

:01:56.:02:04.

the coalition over benefits reform. Some of the backbenchers were

:02:04.:02:08.

spitting with rage yesterday after Nick Clegg threatened plans to --

:02:08.:02:11.

threatened to veto plans to change the ratio for nurses and

:02:11.:02:16.

childminders. The BBC has obtained a leaked exchange of letters between

:02:16.:02:21.

the childcare Minister, Liz Truss, and Nick Clegg, from last December.

:02:21.:02:31.
:02:31.:02:49.

In a letter, Liz Truss warrens Lib Dems insist he was signing off a

:02:49.:02:52.

consultation, not the policy itself.

:02:52.:02:57.

But Liz Truss was not sure of that. Some conservatives are asking why he

:02:57.:03:02.

did not raise his concerns at the time. We decided the issue of

:03:02.:03:06.

whether central government should be involved in laying down by statute

:03:06.:03:15.

ratios of childcare staff to the toddlers, let's park that moment, it

:03:15.:03:18.

is something even the Swedes do not bother to do. What does this tell us

:03:18.:03:22.

about the state of the coalition? is interesting that we're talking

:03:22.:03:25.

about childcare but both sides are throwing their toys out of the pram.

:03:26.:03:32.

There is no overt stating that the bitterness felt by the Tories is

:03:32.:03:36.

quite keen on this one. They work getting into their stride over the

:03:36.:03:39.

Queens speech and then there was this flareup from Nick Clegg, going

:03:39.:03:47.

quite public with it. He left Liz Truss twisting in the wind. There is

:03:47.:03:52.

our sense on the Tory side that Nick Clegg knows that he is not the bees

:03:52.:03:57.

knees among the Lib Dem activists or the Tory backbenchers. Conference is

:03:57.:04:01.

not that far away. Is there a sense that he is throwing red meat to his

:04:01.:04:05.

activists? There is a sense among the Tories

:04:05.:04:09.

that the Lib Dems are trying to regain ground from what looked like

:04:09.:04:13.

an overwhelmingly blue Queens speech, with things like immigration

:04:13.:04:17.

at its heart. Not core issues for Lib Dem activists or voters, stuff

:04:17.:04:23.

like welfare. And Lib Dems pet projects, like the lobbyist

:04:23.:04:28.

register, has been dumped, plain packaging on cigarettes also

:04:28.:04:32.

dumped. The was a feeling that maybe the Lib Dems felt bruised and he

:04:32.:04:35.

felt that he had to make some capital. It makes for a scratchy

:04:35.:04:42.

government. But it is probably not enough on its own to stop the

:04:42.:04:46.

coalition in its tracks? Absolutely correct. Why should declare an

:04:46.:04:49.

interest because I have a bet of a Magnum of champagne with Ian Martin

:04:49.:04:54.

that the coalition will start -- will survive until 2015, but that is

:04:54.:05:00.

not to say that I wanted to. With Nick Clegg at the helm? Even if they

:05:00.:05:03.

come fourth or fifth in the European elections and headless chicken

:05:03.:05:05.

syndrome breaks out? There is mutually assured destruction going

:05:05.:05:09.

on here. Vince Cable in the background saying he could be doing

:05:09.:05:15.

better? There is no sense yet that the Lib Dems are in changing leader

:05:15.:05:18.

territory. They have made their bed and they are going to lie in it. The

:05:18.:05:21.

point of the coalition is to prove that they are grown-ups in

:05:21.:05:28.

government. Cameron and Clegg are wedded to the project. What kind of

:05:28.:05:31.

champagne? Ian wanted it to be vintage but I think it should be

:05:31.:05:36.

quite normal. It is time for the daily quiz. Michael Gove gave a

:05:36.:05:42.

speech yesterday when he criticised the use of comic characters to teach

:05:42.:05:45.

GCSE history lessons. Which of these has been used to study the black and

:05:45.:05:52.

the rise of the third Reich? Was it 1010, Nemo or the Mr Men

:05:52.:05:59.

characters? Or D, Bob the builder. -- was it 1010.

:05:59.:06:06.

By the end of the show, we will get the correct answer.

:06:06.:06:10.

20 bills in a seven and a half minute speech by the Queen but there

:06:10.:06:15.

was not one word which passed her lips on Wednesday about Europe. But

:06:15.:06:19.

that has not stopped everyone else talking about it. This week, members

:06:19.:06:22.

of the old Tory guard have come out fighting to say they want out of the

:06:22.:06:26.

EU. On Tuesday, Nigel Lawson said that the economic gains of leaving

:06:26.:06:36.

would substantially outweigh the costs. Last week -- last night,

:06:36.:06:39.

Michael Portillo told me that the problem in our relationship would be

:06:39.:06:45.

you cannot be solved by a little renegotiation. -- our relationship

:06:45.:06:49.

with the EU. Yesterday, nominal Mont told the BBC that the advantages of

:06:49.:06:54.

ownership were vastly overstated. Support for that position is growing

:06:54.:07:02.

on the home front. -- Norman Lamont. The times had a vote in which they

:07:02.:07:08.

discovered that if there was a referendum tomorrow, 46% would vote

:07:08.:07:13.

to quit the EU against 35% who would vote to stay in. And there is

:07:13.:07:17.

disquiet on the rearguard, too. A group of Conservative MPs say that

:07:17.:07:20.

they will table an amendment to the Queens speech yesterday -- next

:07:20.:07:26.

week, expressing regret that there is no EU referendum Bill. We're

:07:26.:07:29.

joined by one of those MPs behind the amendment, Phillip Hollobone,

:07:29.:07:39.
:07:39.:07:39.

and by Axelle Lemaire E, the French socialist MP. -- Axelle Lemaire. She

:07:39.:07:47.

is a French socialist MP for Northern Europe. This amendment, is

:07:47.:07:53.

it your understanding that the Tory whips will allow a free vote?

:07:53.:07:57.

also, because that will truly reflect the opinion of Conservative

:07:57.:08:01.

MPs and of the Conservative party. I'm know you would hope so, topping

:08:01.:08:05.

and happening can be something very different. Is it your understanding

:08:05.:08:09.

that there will be a free vote? have not been told that but whether

:08:09.:08:13.

it is a free vote or not, they will be a considerable number of

:08:13.:08:17.

Conservative MPs supporting it. if you are equipped to vote against

:08:17.:08:23.

this amendment, would you define a whip? Yes. And you believe a large

:08:23.:08:26.

number of colleagues will do the same? I should think very large

:08:26.:08:34.

number. There were 81 MPs rebelling the last time, and would not be

:08:34.:08:40.

surprised if the number is in excess of 100. Is there a sense that the

:08:40.:08:45.

promised will vote for the amendment? I don't think he will be

:08:45.:08:50.

here. That is convenient. Why is the amendment so polite? It is

:08:50.:08:56.

respectful regret? We have two table it in parliamentary language and the

:08:56.:08:59.

original motion is to thank Her Majesty for her speech. So any

:08:59.:09:04.

amendment has to be respectfully worded. Can you clarify what exactly

:09:04.:09:10.

it is that you want to happen on the referendum front? I want Britain to

:09:10.:09:14.

leave the European Union but I want urge people to have a say at some

:09:14.:09:19.

point, preferably sooner than later on whether we should leave or not.

:09:20.:09:23.

Is it your view that we should have a referendum before the election or

:09:23.:09:27.

on the day of the election? Either before or not on the day after. It

:09:27.:09:34.

has to be one of those. And is it your view, IU happy to have a

:09:34.:09:44.
:09:44.:09:45.

referendum on our existing status in Europe? The difference of dreamy and

:09:45.:09:50.

David Cameron is that if there were a -- the difference between me and

:09:50.:09:53.

David Cameron is that if there were a referendum today, he would vote to

:09:53.:09:58.

stay in and I would vote to leave. Is there anything the Prime Minister

:09:58.:10:02.

any terms of membership that would cause you to change your mind?

:10:02.:10:06.

for me but I suspect it would be a large number of people in the

:10:06.:10:09.

general population who might be persuaded if there were a

:10:09.:10:14.

substantial renegotiation. Is it possible that Conservative

:10:14.:10:20.

backbenchers will bring forward the referendum Bill calling for an

:10:20.:10:26.

immediate referendum? I think that is highly likely. There will be a

:10:26.:10:29.

ballot of Private members in the next few weeks and one of them will

:10:29.:10:33.

be a Conservative MP, and that Conservative MP will come under huge

:10:33.:10:39.

pressure to bring a referendum Bill. And then you will put the

:10:39.:10:41.

government in a difficult position because this government can pick and

:10:41.:10:47.

mix the legislation it supports. There has to be an agreement between

:10:47.:10:50.

the Lib Dem and conservative part of the coalition of what legislation it

:10:50.:10:54.

supports and the Lib Dems will not allow support for a bill like that.

:10:54.:10:59.

Correct? I don't think that's quite right. The government has to agree

:10:59.:11:02.

on what legislation the government brings forward? The Lib Dem part of

:11:02.:11:11.

the coalition block to the boundary bill. So if there were a referendum,

:11:11.:11:16.

I do not understand why government members could not support that.

:11:16.:11:19.

you believe as Michael Portillo implied, that the Prime Minister is

:11:19.:11:25.

not really for leaving under any terms? He would not thought to leave

:11:25.:11:31.

no, but I would. Think the prime could be persuaded. -- he would not

:11:31.:11:37.

vote to leave now. We had to give the people say, because that is the

:11:37.:11:40.

important thing, what they think. The question is when, and what

:11:40.:11:44.

terms? Bannister is making it clear that he wants a referendum by the

:11:44.:11:49.

end of 2017. Provided he wins.We had to hold his feet to the flames

:11:49.:11:53.

to make sure that comes up. And if he does not win, you will never get

:11:53.:11:59.

a referendum. What you make this? all sounds like a very foreign

:11:59.:12:08.

language to me. Well, it is. It is, but there is not only a channel

:12:08.:12:13.

between us, there is a world. I think as a French citizen, living in

:12:13.:12:22.

London, this debate on Europe sounds like a debate about a debate about a

:12:22.:12:30.

debate. Do not understand what is behind it, what kind of powers would

:12:30.:12:38.

be repatriated, and seen from the continent, our political priorities

:12:38.:12:44.

are jobs. We have high unemployment and we need to discover how to get

:12:44.:12:52.

the country out of recession. So, following the financial crisis, we

:12:52.:12:59.

feel that it is too much -- it is not the time to reopen the

:12:59.:13:03.

negotiation agenda on Europe. It is rather the opposite, we need to work

:13:03.:13:07.

towards greater integration to make sure that the crisis... But he knows

:13:07.:13:09.

that if there is greater integration, Britain will never be

:13:09.:13:15.

part of that. Well, that is entirely up to Britain. Under the current

:13:15.:13:21.

terms... Even the Lib Dems are -- and the increasingly pro-Europe

:13:21.:13:25.

Labour do not believe there should be integration. This is so clear to

:13:25.:13:31.

me. The Prime Minister sometimes says that he wants further political

:13:31.:13:37.

integration within the Eurozone. you, yes, but I am talking about

:13:37.:13:39.

Britain. I'm talking about the Eurozone countries, sorry. The fear

:13:39.:13:44.

in Britain is that the Eurozone, because of the mess it is in, and

:13:44.:13:48.

the absurd decision to have monetary union before you get anywhere near

:13:48.:13:51.

political union, the political union will have to follow. And that is the

:13:51.:13:56.

game in town. And that will dominate Europe for the next decade. And your

:13:56.:13:59.

economies are in such a mess that the argument of the Eurozone will

:14:00.:14:05.

dominate. And therefore, Britain is not part of that, and might as well

:14:05.:14:09.

go another way. That is your argument, correct? It is my

:14:09.:14:13.

argument. But Britain is part of that. When it comes to discussing

:14:13.:14:18.

the regulations on financial services, Britain is part of it at

:14:18.:14:28.
:14:28.:14:29.

the moment. But we usually lose! have a financial transaction tax

:14:29.:14:34.

which Britain did not want. It is a measure that will be permitted

:14:34.:14:37.

within the next few months in a positive way. Let me ask you, is

:14:37.:14:44.

Europe in a mood, Berlin or Paris, that's what matters, is Berlin or

:14:44.:14:50.

Paris in a mood to agree to any kind of meaningful renegotiation of

:14:50.:14:55.

powers back to London or Britain? is not a political priority at the

:14:55.:14:59.

moment. So he is right and you might as well have a referendum. Herman

:14:59.:15:05.

Van Rompuy said that it is difficult to even consider the go see it in

:15:05.:15:13.

with the country when you know that they have a hand on the exit handle.

:15:13.:15:19.

That is called a bargaining chip. What you say to it? I'm not sure

:15:19.:15:23.

that the actual beverage of negotiations is real. I'd do not

:15:23.:15:30.

think that there is any. Eurozone countries will ultimately

:15:30.:15:32.

become a United States of Europe. The British people do not want to be

:15:32.:15:42.
:15:42.:15:43.

part of that. The sooner we get out of it, the better. Mrs Merkel may

:15:43.:15:47.

have a different view from you on that. But if the mood in Europe is

:15:47.:15:54.

not to give any kind of repatriations that matters in

:15:54.:16:00.

negotiations, our Paris and Berlin aware that in a referendum, it is

:16:00.:16:07.

likely that Britain would vote to get out? I agree that that is a

:16:07.:16:11.

question to be decided by the British people and our political

:16:11.:16:18.

leaders. So I think there is concern about the potential results of such

:16:18.:16:23.

a referendum, because we are convinced that it would be harmful

:16:24.:16:32.

for the rest of the EU, but also for the United Kingdom. Almost 90% of

:16:32.:16:39.

the small businesses in this country trade with other EU countries.

:16:39.:16:49.
:16:49.:16:52.

Swiss businesses. Switzerland exports more to the EU than we do.

:16:52.:16:56.

Switzerland is an example of a country that does take advantage of

:16:56.:17:01.

the single market, but has no power negotiating. And they are so poor as

:17:01.:17:11.
:17:11.:17:17.

a result(!). Well, they are sitting on natural resources. If money is a

:17:17.:17:25.

matter resource! This is a nightmare for David Cameron. Cameron's problem

:17:25.:17:28.

in the renegotiation is, is he serious about walking away at the

:17:28.:17:38.

end of it and saying, we are out? It is obvious. People voting UKIP were

:17:38.:17:42.

determined to say it was a simple issue of in or out. The prime

:17:42.:17:45.

minister has complicated it with this attempt at renegotiation, which

:17:46.:17:50.

we are not sure of the definitions of, and it gets muddied. The

:17:50.:17:54.

difficulty for the PM is that next week, it is not the amendment we are

:17:54.:17:59.

talking about that will cause him trouble, it is the regret motion. He

:17:59.:18:03.

is pragmatic about that. That is why ministers will be able to vote for

:18:03.:18:07.

it. But the private members bill comes on Thursday. And as Phillips

:18:07.:18:11.

says, the government has no say over that. Will the government be trying

:18:11.:18:19.

to whip on that 's that is where it gets tricky from number ten. If the

:18:19.:18:21.

Euro-sceptic mood of the country deepens, even if the prime minister

:18:21.:18:27.

was to say, I brought back powers from Brussels, we should stay in on

:18:27.:18:32.

these new conditions, the British people might still say no thanks.

:18:32.:18:36.

my view, that is what the British people will do. They will not be

:18:36.:18:41.

convinced by renegotiation. That is what we heard from our friend here.

:18:41.:18:46.

The Europeans are in no mood to take Britain's exit threats seriously, so

:18:46.:18:56.
:18:56.:19:00.

we might have to give it a shot. voted against Lisbon. There is a

:19:00.:19:04.

pro-European consensus in France at the moment. But the National Front

:19:04.:19:12.

is more powerful in France than UKIP. We have no UKIP in France.You

:19:12.:19:18.

have something worse in the National Front. It is an equivalent.The

:19:18.:19:21.

French people voted against the Lisbon Treaty, and the French

:19:21.:19:26.

government ignored them and went ahead. So why would you want to

:19:26.:19:30.

consult the people? The treaty was transformed. But you are right in

:19:30.:19:34.

saying it puts a real challenge to political parties, and we have to

:19:34.:19:38.

address those. But I don't think a referendum is the answer. Jobs are

:19:38.:19:43.

the answer. Speaking of jobs, why has your president turned out to be

:19:43.:19:50.

so useless? Don't say that! Look at what we are doing. He has

:19:50.:19:54.

implemented more than half of the 60 proposals which were part of his

:19:54.:20:02.

manifesto a year ago. And how much has unemployment gone up since?

:20:02.:20:07.

is 10.6%. And among young people? But I must also remind you that the

:20:07.:20:12.

country's economy is not as bad as here. You are in a recession.The

:20:12.:20:22.
:20:22.:20:29.

French economy has grown more. We are all in this together. We are

:20:29.:20:38.

doing so much, but we can't see results in one year. We are forming

:20:38.:20:46.

the labour market. We have passed the banking law. I live in France.

:20:46.:20:51.

Reforming the labour market? You can't say things like that. I think

:20:51.:20:56.

we have just seen the new French presidential candidate! Thank you

:20:56.:21:03.

for coming in. " Syria first and foremost" ,

:21:03.:21:06.

according to the Kremlin press service, it is at the top of the

:21:06.:21:09.

agenda and the most important topic of conversation as David Cameron and

:21:09.:21:14.

Vladimir Putin meet in the southern Black Sea resort of Sochi today. But

:21:14.:21:18.

can the prime minister persuade Russia, a key ally of Syria's

:21:18.:21:21.

President Assad, to help bring the warring factions to the negotiating

:21:21.:21:26.

table and end a conflict which has caused the deaths of more than

:21:26.:21:31.

70,000 people? It is effectively a Syrian Civil War now. The BBC's

:21:31.:21:38.

Daniel Sandford is in Sochi. Are there any signs of the Russians

:21:38.:21:46.

moving, even imperceptibly, in their attitude towards Mr Assad's regime?

:21:46.:21:51.

There are just perceptible signs. There is a suggestion that they are

:21:51.:21:57.

a bit less likely to support him and a bit more likely to be able to see

:21:57.:22:02.

a Syria without him. But the key thing they have stuck to throughout

:22:02.:22:06.

the two-year conflict is that it should be the Syrian people who

:22:06.:22:09.

decide who should govern, and therefore, they don't want to see

:22:09.:22:14.

any settlement that says Mr Assad has to go first. That would leave

:22:14.:22:19.

open the possibility that the people of Syria may choose him to govern.

:22:19.:22:22.

It still remains a very difficult difference between Britain, America

:22:22.:22:26.

and France on the one hand and Russia on the other. David Cameron

:22:26.:22:32.

has come here in hope. He says he has spoken a couple of times to

:22:32.:22:37.

President Putin recently. The agenda here is more about repairing for the

:22:37.:22:43.

G8, the G20. Russia will take over as president of the G8. Both sides

:22:43.:22:49.

admit that at the top of that agenda is Syria. We were invited to see the

:22:49.:22:54.

beginning of their meeting. I thought it looked quite formal. The

:22:54.:22:58.

two don't really know each other well, but the words were very

:22:58.:23:05.

cordial and it was all about the Olympics and . Emit Putin saying he

:23:05.:23:08.

wants to take David Cameron and around the Olympic Park later. But

:23:08.:23:12.

David Cameron pointed out that one of his key issues is here. We will

:23:12.:23:19.

see what comes out of it. Have the British given any indication of what

:23:19.:23:26.

they could offer or what they could do to encourage the Russians to move

:23:26.:23:31.

more in the direction that Britain would like them to go? The language

:23:31.:23:38.

has changed. The language from John Kerry earlier this week changed when

:23:38.:23:41.

he met President Putin. And the language coming out of Downing

:23:41.:23:46.

Street briefings has changed. It was said to me that we will be saying to

:23:46.:23:51.

President Putin, yes, we understand your concern about extremists

:23:51.:23:55.

possibly taking over in Syria if President Assad were to stand aside.

:23:55.:24:01.

We have lots of common ground about what the solution to the Syrian

:24:01.:24:05.

conflict will be. It has to be a negotiated solution where all

:24:05.:24:10.

parties get round the table. They are trying to give open doors to

:24:10.:24:16.

Putin to walk through. But his position is that the outside world

:24:16.:24:21.

can't interfere in this in any significant way. He has become quite

:24:21.:24:25.

a long way from that position before anything meaningful can happen.

:24:25.:24:30.

Peace talks are due to happen this month, and at the G8 in Northern

:24:31.:24:34.

Ireland in June, everyone is hoping that by then, there may be something

:24:34.:24:40.

concrete. But I think it is still wishful thinking at the moment.

:24:41.:24:46.

Before I go, I should say that we are here in the residence, for many

:24:46.:24:50.

years, of Russian and Soviet leaders, beside the Black Sea in

:24:50.:24:54.

Sochi. As far as I know, you are the first people to broadcast live from

:24:54.:24:59.

inside the Russian leader's residence on the Black Sea. Another

:24:59.:25:08.

first for the Daily Politics. And it looks beautiful behind you. Have a

:25:08.:25:11.

good conference and get lots of information for Monday.

:25:11.:25:15.

Now, I am delighted to say that Bronwen Maddox has made it. You had

:25:15.:25:25.
:25:25.:25:25.

trouble with the traffic. London was not at its best for me. And we have

:25:25.:25:35.

the former Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind with us. You think we should

:25:35.:25:39.

be arming the rebels now? I have taken that view for the last 12

:25:39.:25:47.

months. That view came to me more easily than to the government. When

:25:47.:25:56.

you have crises of this kind, you look for a bad solution -- a good

:25:56.:26:02.

solution rather than a bad solution. But the longer this war goes on, the

:26:02.:26:10.

more people will die. 70,000 have died so far. It could go up to

:26:10.:26:14.

150,000 over the next year. Anything that stops that is preferable.

:26:14.:26:22.

Secondly, there is the rise of the Al-Qaeda-type organisation in

:26:23.:26:26.

north-eastern Syria. It is still a minority of the opposition, but it

:26:26.:26:29.

is undoubtedly the case that over the last year and a half, they have

:26:29.:26:33.

had access to arms and have been increasing their influence. They can

:26:34.:26:38.

control parts of the territory that have been removed from the control

:26:38.:26:42.

of the Syrian government. The more control they get, the more dangerous

:26:42.:26:48.

that becomes. Are you sure we would have the capability to be able to

:26:49.:26:52.

get the arms to what we would regard as the good guys rather than them

:26:52.:26:58.

falling into the hands of what we think are the bad guys? Quite a lot

:26:58.:27:05.

has happened over the last year and a half. We do now recognised the

:27:05.:27:10.

Syrian opposition as the legitimate voice of the Syrian people. There

:27:10.:27:17.

has been a lot of contact in Jordan and Turkey and elsewhere. The short

:27:18.:27:21.

answer is that you can't get it 100% right, but it would not be as

:27:21.:27:27.

difficult as it would have been in the past. What do you say to the

:27:27.:27:31.

idea that this would be like pouring petrol onto a fire, that the ethnic

:27:31.:27:35.

structure and rivalries in Syria make Iraq look like a simple nursery

:27:35.:27:41.

and the whole place would be a conflagration? Needs of the --

:27:41.:27:50.

neither the West nor Iran created the war. That war is happening. Many

:27:50.:27:54.

innocent people have died. It is not just a fire, it is already a

:27:54.:27:59.

conflagration. The question is how you can best bring this conflict to

:27:59.:28:03.

an end as soon as possible. Part of it will be diplomatic, part of it

:28:03.:28:06.

may be sanctions. But the most decisive consideration will be

:28:06.:28:11.

military. If the insurgents are able, because the Assad regime is

:28:11.:28:16.

not short of military hardware, because they started off with most

:28:16.:28:19.

of it and they have received some from Iran and possibly Russia over

:28:19.:28:24.

the last few years, and unless that balance is tipped in the right

:28:24.:28:28.

direction, this conflict goes on for another few years, we all ring our

:28:28.:28:32.

hands, and thousands more die and the Al-Qaeda-type people

:28:32.:28:37.

increasingly take power in parts of the country. Bronwyn, what do you

:28:37.:28:43.

say? Malcolm Rifkind has made two good points, the humanitarian one

:28:44.:28:48.

and the threat of Al-Qaeda rising. But your conclusion is wrong.

:28:48.:28:53.

Putting in more arms into this immensely unstable country is

:28:53.:29:01.

putting more fuel on the fire. Our record of picking the good guys has

:29:01.:29:04.

not been great. You can't be sure that the good guys will stay your

:29:04.:29:13.

friends. People can turn on you. The talks are fantastically frustrating

:29:13.:29:21.

as it is. Talks have begun to open up between Russia, John Kerry and

:29:21.:29:28.

Britain will stop there may be the chance of something different.

:29:28.:29:36.

Russia might be able to change position and save face. It is

:29:36.:29:42.

calling for international peace talks, and Russia could now say, we

:29:42.:29:49.

have tried this and we can now back away. There is at least an opening

:29:49.:29:53.

where Russia can begin to change its view. I don't necessarily disagree

:29:53.:29:58.

with that. It is not a stark choice of either pursuing a diplomatic

:29:58.:30:01.

route or giving greater help to the insurgents. The one would contribute

:30:01.:30:07.

to the other. You have to ask why it is now that Russia and the United

:30:07.:30:10.

States have come sufficiently close together to call for an

:30:10.:30:15.

international conference. That could be the beginnings of a date-type

:30:15.:30:19.

process that leads to a resolution. At in terms of putting pressure on

:30:19.:30:23.

the Assad regime to accept the need for a political solution to this,

:30:24.:30:29.

they will be influenced in the right direction if they realised the West

:30:29.:30:33.

is now prepared, in the absence of such a solution, to give material

:30:33.:30:37.

and military help to the insurgents. On the other hand, the

:30:37.:30:41.

opposition may be less willing to do any kind of deal if they think a

:30:41.:30:49.

giant shipment of arms is coming down way. The Let me add to that

:30:49.:30:53.

point. It may be possible for us to switch on and off that extra

:30:53.:30:59.

military help. If they is to cooperate. I cannot think of an

:30:59.:31:02.

example where you put a load of guns into a country and you can get them

:31:02.:31:06.

out again. They are not on strings. No, this does not happen overnight.

:31:07.:31:11.

The idea that you are the insurgents, it is not done in 24

:31:11.:31:18.

hours. It is a gradual build-up. -- arm the insurgents. At any stage,

:31:18.:31:21.

the process could be halted at the insurgents were acting unreasonably.

:31:21.:31:28.

I wish I agreed, but is -- it is an illusion of control. What would

:31:28.:31:36.

happen if the Russians responded with more weapons for Mr Assad, and

:31:36.:31:39.

the Iranians? A lot of his hardware at the moment is more powerful than

:31:39.:31:43.

what the rebels has but it goes back to Soviet times. What if they got

:31:43.:31:48.

some modern stuff? That is part of the problem. When we had an embargo

:31:48.:31:52.

in Bosnia, it was a UN embargo which applied to everyone. The only

:31:52.:31:55.

important that exists at the moment is an EU embargo on the Russians and

:31:55.:31:58.

Iranians have not only been supplying weapons, they have not

:31:58.:32:02.

been breaking any embargo to which they were party in doing so. I get

:32:02.:32:07.

the impression that there is a mood in the British Government,

:32:08.:32:12.

particularly in the Warren office, moving in Malcolm Rifkind 's

:32:12.:32:15.

direction. They are reaching towards what he has been suggesting will

:32:15.:32:20.

stop there is a twin track at the moment, the PM today making the

:32:20.:32:25.

point of making a attempt for a political settlement. That is the

:32:25.:32:31.

worst case scenario. -- making an attempt. Another ten are keen on

:32:31.:32:39.

leadership change. There was a hint this week that Russia were not tied

:32:39.:32:42.

to any one particular individual. The Foreign Office sees a glimmer of

:32:42.:32:47.

hope there. They are not naive but they want to push the weapons issue

:32:47.:32:51.

because it is a pretty good stick with which to beat President Assad.

:32:51.:32:59.

My Syrian friends tell me that the Al Whites around the regime will

:32:59.:33:02.

fight to the end because they know that if they do not, they believe

:33:02.:33:07.

they will all be killed. They do believe that, and there is a risk

:33:07.:33:11.

that that could happen. They are 15% of the population. They cannot

:33:11.:33:16.

prevent the other 85% of the population wanting a political

:33:16.:33:21.

change towards a more released and open society. That 85% is not

:33:21.:33:25.

homogeneous in any way. It is not in the objective of the West must be to

:33:25.:33:31.

put whatever pressure is needed on the Syrian opposition that will one

:33:31.:33:34.

day become the government to ensure that you respect the rights, not

:33:34.:33:41.

just of the Al Whites, but of other minorities, Christians and Kurds,

:33:41.:33:47.

that have serious and understandable concerns. Cos of all its gas and

:33:47.:33:50.

yes, the Assad regime played to these minorities. -- Alawites. That

:33:51.:33:58.

is where they got their support. That was not a spurious argument. It

:33:58.:34:04.

has to be taken into concern. a number of Christian supporters

:34:04.:34:09.

that were very worried. Let me bring you back to a matter more at home.

:34:09.:34:13.

What do you make of your former Cabinet colleagues sitting around a

:34:13.:34:17.

table, probably with a single European market at that is being

:34:17.:34:25.

negotiated? I will go through them, Mr Lassen, Mr Lamont, Michael

:34:25.:34:30.

Portillo. -- Mr Lassen. Why have you not join them two I have not joined

:34:30.:34:34.

them because I start with a different set of assumptions.

:34:34.:34:39.

have you not join them? I think of myself as a moderate. I do not want

:34:39.:34:42.

Britain to join the single currency but I do not accept the argument

:34:42.:34:47.

Nigel Lawson is using that you have a stark choice between either

:34:47.:34:51.

accepting gradual moves towards a federal Europe or leaving you as

:34:51.:34:56.

soon as possible. He is quite right to say that the consequence of the

:34:56.:35:01.

Eurozone crisis is that for at least 17 other countries, they will end up

:35:01.:35:06.

in a con federal system. That is a correct analysis. We already have a

:35:06.:35:10.

European Union that is very diverse with different kinds of membership.

:35:10.:35:16.

11 members are not members of the Eurozone. Some countries are not in

:35:16.:35:20.

-- participating with the fence because of neutral status. For the

:35:20.:35:23.

United Kingdom to seek to have greater assurances that it will not

:35:23.:35:27.

be pushed into further forms of social integration and domestic

:35:27.:35:31.

policy, that we will not tolerate, that is going to be difficult, but

:35:31.:35:37.

my second criticism of Nigel is when he rubbished or tried to rubbished

:35:37.:35:40.

David Cameron 's negotiating prospects. He should think back to

:35:40.:35:44.

the Prime Minister we served under, Margaret Thatcher. When she started

:35:45.:35:51.

negotiating, it was one against the world. And her negotiation started

:35:51.:35:54.

far more -- in a more difficult context than David Cameron's because

:35:54.:36:00.

every pound of rebate she won back, somebody else had to pay for. Every

:36:00.:36:03.

other member state was going to have to fork out more when she eventually

:36:03.:36:08.

won. So David Cameron is Margaret Thatcher? I'm saying that the kind

:36:08.:36:13.

of changes he is making, like getting us out of the working time

:36:13.:36:18.

directive, the way that doctors and nurses work in British hospitals, if

:36:18.:36:21.

you change it is does not have any effect on France, Germany, Spain,

:36:21.:36:29.

Italy. This is doctrinally stuff that we have been bound into. I am

:36:29.:36:32.

not saying it will be any easy negotiation but actually he is

:36:32.:36:36.

starting off with the task which is very difficult, but it is not as

:36:36.:36:41.

difficult as Thatcher had in the 1980s. I wonder about that. But they

:36:41.:36:45.

do not want to go there because I think she had one simple aim in

:36:45.:36:53.

mind, but he has to negotiate across a lot of issues. But it is worth

:36:53.:36:57.

bearing in mind that when a country has legitimate concerns, when they

:36:57.:37:00.

are put forward consistently and hopefully with courtesy, but with

:37:00.:37:10.
:37:10.:37:10.

strength, then ultimately other countries, every other head in

:37:10.:37:13.

Europe is domestically elected and understands that these are important

:37:13.:37:16.

issues that are divisive. Copper mines is the motherboard in thing.

:37:16.:37:20.

One final question, Michael Portillo was in the studio last night saying

:37:20.:37:30.

that he did not agree that they would get very much back but if they

:37:30.:37:35.

did not then David Cameron would still vote to stay in. -- compromise

:37:35.:37:42.

is the most important thing. I think that is likely, but it is not what

:37:42.:37:44.

the Prime Minister says that will determine the outcome. The

:37:44.:37:47.

comparison that Nigel Lawson was making was with Harold Wilson's

:37:47.:37:51.

because the ocean. He got nothing back. I know and notwithstanding

:37:51.:37:55.

that, at that particular time it was not too difficult for him to win a

:37:55.:37:59.

referendum. It will be more difficult. But every part of the

:38:00.:38:04.

media apart from the express in the morning Star backed him. And it is a

:38:04.:38:13.

different European Union now. I think David Cameron not only had to

:38:13.:38:16.

recommend staying in happy has renegotiated, but he has been

:38:16.:38:21.

achieved real substance as a result of the negotiation. I think it can

:38:21.:38:25.

be done but I am not pretending it will be easy. One final thing, if he

:38:25.:38:30.

came back with nothing and we had a referendum, how would you vote them?

:38:30.:38:34.

That is rather like saying if there was a referendum tomorrow. With lots

:38:34.:38:39.

of caveats and without any real enthusiasm, I would vote to stay in

:38:39.:38:44.

because for a range of reasons which I could happily tell you... Milk,

:38:44.:38:48.

no, we're running out of time. believe that now we have knocked

:38:48.:38:53.

out, and we are locked into a referendum if there is any proposal

:38:53.:38:58.

to -- to enhance powers in Europe, I could cope with that. So you are in.

:38:58.:39:08.
:39:08.:39:14.

Correct. It is to re-won so far. -- the re-won so far.

:39:14.:39:16.

Workers on the Transport Select Committee say that Heathrow need

:39:16.:39:20.

four runways and they have rubbished Boris Johnson's ideas they have

:39:20.:39:25.

export -- harbour airport in the Thames estuary. There is what Boris

:39:25.:39:29.

had to say about it. I think you have to look at what the MPs are

:39:29.:39:35.

saying about their solution. They want to create a fourth runway to

:39:35.:39:39.

the west of London, and move he wrote to the west. It might be

:39:39.:39:46.

cheaper to move London to the east. They are proposing things that are

:39:46.:39:50.

not costed. You have to look at the real long-term benefits from having

:39:50.:39:55.

a new airport to the east of London, avoiding millions of

:39:55.:40:00.

Londoners suffering from XS aircraft noise. There is no other great city

:40:00.:40:08.

in the world that would do this to its citizens and in trench a massive

:40:08.:40:15.

planning and location mistake of decades ago. That was Boris with --

:40:15.:40:19.

that is -- that was Boris and with us is the chair of the Transport

:40:19.:40:21.

Select Committee. Why did you conclude that Boris was wrong?

:40:21.:40:28.

looked at the possibility of building a new airport, and we need

:40:28.:40:32.

more help capacity. First, there is cost. There is not much information

:40:32.:40:39.

around but the commission shows it would cost up to �30 billion for

:40:39.:40:43.

infrastructure alone. Heathrow airport would have to close, with

:40:43.:40:47.

the massive disruption that that would involve. There are major

:40:47.:40:52.

environmental issues. The area is a habitat for 300,000 birds. There are

:40:52.:40:57.

major problems with finance dislocation and environment.

:40:57.:41:02.

billion, does that include not just the cost of building Boris Island,

:41:02.:41:08.

but does it include the massive cost of reconfiguring the infrastructure

:41:08.:41:12.

towards the east of London which it has not got at the moment? New

:41:12.:41:20.

motorways, new Rhyl were lines. was about access to the airport

:41:20.:41:25.

itself but it was only an assessment. There will also be

:41:25.:41:29.

compensation for closing down Heathrow. -- new railway lines.

:41:29.:41:33.

in the principle of the Scottish Parliament, I guess we can assumed

:41:33.:41:38.

that �30 billion would end up �60 billion or �160 billion. This is an

:41:39.:41:43.

assessment on a range of possibilities. If you rule out Boris

:41:43.:41:51.

Island, but you think we still need a single hub in the south-east, also

:41:52.:41:56.

-- almost by default is that Heathrow? We need increased hot

:41:56.:42:05.

capacity and that means it should be at Heathrow. -- hub. There is a

:42:05.:42:08.

strong case for an additional runway but we also think that we need to

:42:08.:42:14.

look at other things for the future. Did you take a view on where the

:42:14.:42:20.

third one we should be? We did not look at the detail of that. -- third

:42:21.:42:30.
:42:31.:42:34.

runway show. A number of proposals in the melting pot. To the west,

:42:34.:42:38.

next to Windsor Castle? Did you call the Queen? ! She should never have

:42:38.:42:44.

bought that hassle on the flightpath! This has been, if you

:42:44.:42:48.

were to stand back and look at things with out any party hat on,

:42:48.:42:51.

this has been a huge decision about the future of our country which the

:42:51.:42:58.

main parties have bought. Your party for the last election in favour of a

:42:59.:43:01.

third runway and lost, and then changed its mind. The Tories plotted

:43:01.:43:05.

against a third runway, and are clearly now trying to move towards

:43:06.:43:10.

something like a third runway. The parties have not covered themselves

:43:10.:43:16.

in glory. You are right. It is one of those issues that is too

:43:16.:43:20.

difficult. But it matters so much to the country in the economy and jobs.

:43:20.:43:23.

Somebody's going to have to grasp the nettle and the government has

:43:24.:43:28.

set up the Davis commission. It has told not to report until after the

:43:28.:43:35.

next general election. I wonder why(!) After that, somebody will

:43:35.:43:40.

have to take a decision. How do you read this, Paul Waugh? I think it

:43:40.:43:44.

will do a lot of the spadework for the Davis Commission, this work from

:43:44.:43:50.

today. I think you will be interested in the paragraphs that

:43:50.:43:54.

dismiss Boris Island. Some of his critics say that he is very good at

:43:54.:43:59.

splashing the cash on his own schemes and �30 billion is a lot of

:43:59.:44:03.

money for something that is basically what they say, just an

:44:03.:44:06.

issue about a few people in west London trying to protect their

:44:06.:44:12.

flight plans, rather than economic growth. Some of the Treasury are

:44:12.:44:15.

coming around to that. It is clear that that is where the party is

:44:15.:44:18.

going. Labour will have to come around to that opinion, too, by

:44:18.:44:23.

2015. Boris is in Belfast today, why? Because he's going to a factory

:44:23.:44:28.

urges going to build the new buses which are costing �350,000 each.

:44:28.:44:35.

Each. At least they are being done in Britain. Yes, but that is a lot

:44:35.:44:45.
:44:45.:44:45.

of money. Where are you on this?I think we have dismissed Boris Island

:44:45.:44:49.

too quickly. There was a marvellous couple of paragraphs, demolishing

:44:49.:44:53.

something that does not exist yet, but the KC has made, right, he wants

:44:53.:44:59.

to spend a lot of money and it is a set of plans for spending a lot of

:44:59.:45:02.

money in the Southeast. But he has a point that if you were starting from

:45:02.:45:06.

scratch, you would not put the major airports serving Britain and the

:45:06.:45:16.
:45:16.:45:16.

south-east where it is. But we are not starting from scratch. We would

:45:16.:45:19.

not have a monarchy if we were starting from scratch. That is an

:45:19.:45:28.

interesting question. But we have the chances that the chance with

:45:28.:45:32.

this to say, look, where are we going to build this? But we are not

:45:32.:45:36.

very good at these projects. We are not very good at the economics and

:45:36.:45:40.

the assessment of them, and this figure of �30 billion needs a lot of

:45:41.:45:44.

chipping away. I thought that �30 billion would be an absolute

:45:44.:45:50.

minimum. That came from an independent assessment made by the

:45:50.:45:54.

consultants. It was an assessment of the range of costs. All we could

:45:54.:45:58.

work on work proposals, not fully worked out, which are out there in a

:45:58.:46:05.

semipublic arena. It is a fallacy to think that there would be no

:46:05.:46:12.

problems with a new airport. It would not be. You would also have to

:46:12.:46:14.

have new infrastructure so the rest of Britain could get to that part of

:46:14.:46:18.

London. It is easy for the rest of Britain to get to the west of

:46:18.:46:25.

London, easier to get there than the east of London. I live in West

:46:25.:46:29.

London. We're not bad people. It is easier if you are in Merseyside MP

:46:29.:46:33.

to take this position. Is that fair? This is the view of the cross-party

:46:33.:46:38.

committee Conservatives again. any west London MPs are there on the

:46:38.:46:41.

committee? We do have some.I'm going to check! Thank you for

:46:42.:46:51.

coming. Now, Britain needs money, and China has got lots of it.

:46:51.:46:56.

David Cameron wants Britain to win export deals over the next two

:46:57.:47:00.

years, but can we do business with Beijing while criticising its human

:47:00.:47:08.

rights record, which is patchy? That is probably British understatement.

:47:08.:47:12.

Gerard Street, a delicious slice of China in the heart of London. The

:47:12.:47:17.

Chinese have been in Britain for centuries, and we, with varying

:47:17.:47:21.

degrees of friendliness, have been in China for as long. The upper hand

:47:21.:47:24.

in that relationship has changed from time to time, but these days,

:47:24.:47:30.

it is clear that we need them a lots more than they need us. This is the

:47:30.:47:33.

traditional manifestation of the Chinese in Britain, but their real

:47:33.:47:38.

power lies behind-the-scenes. investment side, last year was a

:47:38.:47:44.

record year. 10 million in sterling from China to various industries

:47:44.:47:50.

including infrastructure, which is important. Our trade was up 13.5%

:47:50.:47:54.

last year, more than any other EU country to China. There are exposed

:47:54.:47:59.

to as increased as well, so we are on track to a bilateral trading

:47:59.:48:04.

relationship of 100 billion sterling by 2015. There is even a feeling

:48:04.:48:10.

that if two of written's biggest infrastructure projects are to

:48:10.:48:15.

happen, Chinese investment will be vital. But there is a snag. China's

:48:15.:48:20.

human rights record does not stack up well. Over the years, Amnesty

:48:20.:48:24.

International have documented a wide range of human rights abuses ranging

:48:24.:48:29.

from the clamp-down on freedom of expression and freedom of assembly,

:48:29.:48:34.

freedom of religion, death penalty, torture, cruel treatment, the list

:48:34.:48:37.

goes on. Beijing took a dim view when the Dalai Lama was broke to

:48:37.:48:41.

Britain, leading to fears that political and trade links could be

:48:41.:48:44.

damaged. While Downing Street have played that down, some business

:48:44.:48:50.

leaders believe we do have a choice to make. As a nation, we have to

:48:50.:48:55.

decide whether we set out our stall by example and then get on and trade

:48:55.:48:59.

with the world, which we need to do to prosper and grow the economy, or

:48:59.:49:02.

or whether we preach to the rest of the world on how they should behave.

:49:02.:49:08.

But there is a danger in that. The UK is no longer an imperial nation.

:49:08.:49:11.

We are not in control of what the rest of the world does. All we can

:49:11.:49:18.

do is set out our stall by example. Bear in mind, this is high-stakes

:49:18.:49:21.

diplomacy. It is important to get the political relationship right. We

:49:21.:49:26.

have different views, so there will be differences of opinion, and both

:49:26.:49:29.

sides recognise that. We have to engage and work our way through them

:49:29.:49:34.

and make sure differences in political views don't interrupt the

:49:34.:49:38.

important trading relationship which is going so well. So how do we avoid

:49:38.:49:43.

rocking the boat too much, while still being able to speak our minds?

:49:43.:49:47.

It is about creating a dialogue with the Chinese on human rights. We have

:49:47.:49:51.

seen dramatic change in China over the years. We have seen an

:49:51.:49:54.

increasingly affluent middle-class arise, we have seen workers

:49:54.:49:58.

demonstrate on pay and working conditions. It is in the Chinese

:49:58.:50:03.

interest to embrace this and work with countries like the UK on how

:50:03.:50:07.

best to utilise all of that energy to promote good governance and human

:50:07.:50:11.

rights practice. One of our favourite Chinese imports, but

:50:11.:50:14.

generally pretty frustrating. The challenge for politicians dashed to

:50:14.:50:19.

make sure our trading relationship with China is a bit more productive

:50:19.:50:28.

than this guy has been so far. Here is the dilemma. Britain needs

:50:28.:50:32.

to export a lot more to China. Our record of doing so is pretty

:50:32.:50:37.

lamentable, and the Eurozone is on its back. So we need to get into the

:50:37.:50:43.

emerging markets. On the other hand, china's record in Tibet is barbaric

:50:43.:50:47.

and we, the British, feel we should be free to say that. How do you

:50:47.:50:53.

resolve it? Britain should hang tough on the human rights issue.

:50:53.:51:01.

Keep meeting the Dalai Lama, and so on. China has been keen to say that

:51:01.:51:06.

it is very big in Britain, but it does not have all the cards. It has

:51:06.:51:13.

its own problems, and its paranoia about the Dalai Lama is a sign of

:51:13.:51:18.

the concerns among the leadership about holding the country together.

:51:18.:51:22.

I think British companies are up to continuing to find their way in, as

:51:22.:51:26.

German companies have done the decades. Mrs Merkel has seen the

:51:26.:51:34.

Dalai Lama? A very good point.I am not sure. There is a historic tie

:51:34.:51:44.
:51:44.:51:44.

between China and Britain. Should our trade policy be hijacked by an

:51:45.:51:51.

unelected spiritual leader? Number ten both. You have to respect the

:51:51.:51:55.

demands for human rights in Tibet, while at the same time making sure

:51:55.:52:00.

you have a productive economic relationship. Mrs Merkel has met the

:52:00.:52:08.

Dalai Lama, she just called me to say so. This week, Malcolm Rifkind

:52:08.:52:13.

was helpful to David Cameron during the Queen's Speech. He intervened to

:52:13.:52:17.

give him the chance to offer an olive branch to China. The PM could

:52:18.:52:23.

say, we recognise china's sovereignty into debt. That was a

:52:23.:52:27.

clear signal to Beijing. Although we have met the Dalai Lama, we are

:52:27.:52:31.

still interested in a working relationship. That was significant.

:52:32.:52:35.

China has a choice at this point. Will it listen to some of the

:52:35.:52:38.

complaints that other countries have, for example over cyber

:52:38.:52:43.

hacking? Or is it going to say, we will be a superpower but we will not

:52:44.:52:48.

observe the rules or engage? There will be pressure on China coming

:52:48.:52:53.

from other governments as it gets bigger. It is possible to have it

:52:53.:52:56.

both ways, to keep making these points, because China will have to

:52:56.:53:01.

listen. Without further ceremony, an item

:53:01.:53:04.

even shorter than the Queen's Speech. Here is the week in 60

:53:04.:53:11.

seconds. Queen's Speech time this week, and

:53:11.:53:15.

surprise appearances included Charles and Camilla. Not so

:53:15.:53:18.

surprised appearances? A raft of Bill's critics claimed were designed

:53:18.:53:25.

to appeal -- appease you give voters. The Dean Doris was taken off

:53:25.:53:29.

the naughty step and reinstated as a Tory MP -- Nadine Dorries. Talking

:53:29.:53:39.
:53:39.:53:40.

of naughty steps, Nick Clegg criticised the plan over childcare.

:53:40.:53:45.

Any of us would find it tough to look after two-year-olds. There was

:53:45.:53:50.

more excitement to Prince Charles on Wednesday after he heard that a

:53:50.:53:54.

lengthy and distinguished reign was coming to an end. But his hopes were

:53:55.:54:00.

dashed when David Moyes was appointed to replace Alex Ferguson.

:54:00.:54:03.

Ed and Dave could not resist getting in on the act, tweeting their views

:54:03.:54:13.
:54:13.:54:16.

at two in the morning. Really, lads? But the week is not over yet,

:54:16.:54:20.

because we are getting news this morning that Abu Qatada's lawyers

:54:20.:54:24.

have told the British court that if the Jordanian parliament ratifies

:54:24.:54:32.

this agreement that no evidence obtained by torture can be

:54:32.:54:38.

admissible in a Jordanian court, he will go back to Jordan, an

:54:38.:54:42.

interesting development. Is this the final breakthrough, or his lawyers

:54:42.:54:46.

up to something? The Home Office are hopeful that this could be a proper

:54:46.:54:50.

breakthrough. They have put a lot of effort into getting this agreement

:54:50.:54:55.

with the Jordanians, and now even Abu Qatada's lawyers are saying, if

:54:55.:54:59.

you can pin it down, he will go back of his own free will. It is a

:54:59.:55:04.

win-win for Theresa May. Why would he agree to do this? I can't see

:55:04.:55:09.

why. I am not sure it is the end of the story at all. I know Belmarsh is

:55:09.:55:13.

not the nicest place, but I am sure it is better than a Jordanian jail.

:55:13.:55:17.

This does not feel like the end of the story to me. It does not add

:55:17.:55:27.
:55:27.:55:28.

up. Exactly.Even if they don't use evidence obtained under torture, the

:55:28.:55:32.

chances are that he is still going down in Jordan. You would have

:55:32.:55:36.

thought so, but maybe there is some arrangement we don't know about with

:55:36.:55:39.

the Jordanians whereby he is concerned kind of assurances through

:55:39.:55:47.

his lawyers that he will have a sentence, but not so severe. We need

:55:47.:55:57.
:55:57.:55:59.

to find out more. I am simply going to nod. Where do the Tories all go

:55:59.:56:05.

on this referendum now? David Cameron has created this huge

:56:05.:56:09.

problem for himself. The year ago, he was whipping his own MPs against

:56:10.:56:14.

a European in-out referendum. Now the policy has shifted, not

:56:14.:56:18.

necessarily because of UKIP. It shifted at the beginning of the year

:56:18.:56:21.

towards and in-out referendum, but they have not quite got to the

:56:22.:56:24.

position where they believe in it. A lot of backbenchers have a clear

:56:24.:56:32.

position saying out, all very strict conditions if they were going to

:56:32.:56:36.

stay in. It is messy at the moment. It is not easy to communicate to the

:56:36.:56:41.

voters. The Tory strategy is to say to voters that if you want a

:56:41.:56:45.

referendum, you can only get it by voting Conservative and giving the

:56:45.:56:49.

Tories an overall majority. Do you detect any signs that either Labour

:56:49.:56:55.

or the Lib Dems could shoot that Fox by saying, all right, we will give

:56:55.:57:04.

you a referendum? This does not show David Cameron as a good politician.

:57:04.:57:09.

He has fallen into a trap and has been running scared of supposedly

:57:09.:57:13.

integration that the euro zone might achieve. The Eurozone has not got a

:57:13.:57:22.

clue as to how it will get there. is going into the next election with

:57:22.:57:26.

an economic record which is nowhere near the kind he hoped he would be

:57:26.:57:30.

heading to 2015 with. It will not be a job done economic record by any

:57:31.:57:36.

means, so he needs something else. Europe will firstly hope to see off

:57:36.:57:40.

UKIP, he hopes, but it is also a good debating point for him with the

:57:41.:57:47.

campaign? It is. He is trying to park Europe as an issue in a way.

:57:47.:57:51.

The next general election will be decided on economic growth and jobs.

:57:51.:57:55.

They are crossing their fingers that growth will go up a bit next year.

:57:55.:58:00.

And there on the -- there are indications that it could happen.

:58:00.:58:05.

Time to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was, Michael Gove

:58:05.:58:09.

has criticised the use of children's characters in a GCSE history lesson

:58:09.:58:18.

plan about the Nazis. Who was he talking about? Mr Men? Specifically,

:58:18.:58:28.
:58:28.:58:28.

Mr topsy-turvy. And this is not in the nursery, this is for GCSEs?

:58:28.:58:34.

GCSEs teaching Hitler. You couldn't make it up. Why didn't they choose

:58:34.:58:40.

Mr Strong? He did not have the moustache. That is it today. Thanks

:58:40.:58:45.

to our guests. The one o'clock News is starting on BBC One. I will be

:58:45.:58:48.

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