13/12/2013 Daily Politics


13/12/2013

Andrew Neil with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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Afternoon, folks, welcome to the Daily Politics. On the show today:

:00:37.:00:41.

Iain Duncan Smith tells people on benefits that they must speak

:00:42.:00:44.

English or see their payments cut. We will have the details.

:00:45.:00:48.

Could Britain become Europe's top destination for prostitution? That's

:00:49.:00:53.

the warning from a Labour politician who says the law should change. We

:00:54.:00:57.

will talk to her, and a former sex worker.

:00:58.:01:00.

Jo reports from Berlin on Angela Merkel's new coalition government,

:01:01.:01:03.

which should get a final go-ahead this weekend. What does it mean for

:01:04.:01:09.

Europe? Could the world be turned upside

:01:10.:01:15.

down in 2014? We will be gazing into the Daily Politics crystal ball and

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giving you our top political predictions for the year ahead.

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All that in the next hour. And with us for the next half an hour is

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Carla Buzasi, editor in chief of the online newspaper Huffington Post UK.

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Welcome. Let's start this morning by talking about the government's plans

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to cut down on benefits tourism. The Work and Pensions Secretary, Iain

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Duncan Smith, says that migrants whose English is deemed to be so

:01:45.:01:48.

poor that they would struggle to find work in this country could be

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denied benefits. The announcement comes just a couple of weeks before

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restrictions on immigration from Romania and Bulgaria are lifted.

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Our correspondent joins me now. Can you give us an idea of what is being

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proposed here? It is not just being proposed, it is being rolled out in

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Jobcentres across England, Scotland and Wales this week and next. It is

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a tougher habit jewel residents' test which migrants who come into

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the country will have to pass before they can claim benefits. The idea

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was to make sure people are coming here because they want to contribute

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to the economy, not take advantage of the benefits system. The staff in

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the Jobcentres will now be able to introduce a new range of questions.

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One of them will be about whether the person's grasp of English is

:02:54.:02:58.

good enough for them to have a realistic chance of getting work

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here. The staff will also be able to look at things like that family

:03:03.:03:06.

connections, housing arrangements, how long they have been in the

:03:07.:03:11.

country and so on. So clearly, someone with little English who does

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not seem to have been making an effort to look for work before they

:03:16.:03:18.

come into the country, has nowhere to live and has no family to stay

:03:19.:03:25.

with is unlikely to get sufficient documentation to claim benefits,

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whereas if you have obviously been looking for work, you have job

:03:31.:03:35.

interviews coming up, somewhere to stay and relatives you can stay

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with, you are more likely to get it. This is about what Iain Duncan

:03:39.:03:43.

Smith calls cracking down on benefits tourism, which many people

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have argued about how much there is. Has the government given an

:03:51.:03:55.

indication that it is sure this would be legal under the Treaty of

:03:56.:03:59.

Rome free movement of labour provisions? Well, even the old test

:04:00.:04:05.

is already being challenged by officials in the European

:04:06.:04:08.

Commission. They are already planning to take the UK to court

:04:09.:04:13.

because they feel it discriminates against workers from other parts of

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the European Union. Iain Duncan Smith's people say they will fight

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that robustly, and they are confident that their new test can

:04:22.:04:32.

also be defended. Is the requirement to speak English properly going to

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apply to British people as well? It is not applied to British people at

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the moment, but there is a wider look at the whole benefit system

:04:43.:04:44.

going on ahead of the next election. George Osborne said to the select

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committee yesterday that billions more would have to be found from

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benefits. One thing they are looking at is the benefits cap, whether it

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could be brought down from the current level of 26,000. That is

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being considered. What do you make of this? I am

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terrified about the rhetoric around this. People are coming here as

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tourists, it is all a sop to the people's fears, and yet we know

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migrants are great for this country. I feel it is a knee jerk

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political reaction rather than looking at the issues. But they are

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clearly worried that a lot of Bulgarians and Romanians are going

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to come. They don't know, but they are terrified that it will fall back

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on them. We have interviewed people in those countries. We have spoken

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to someone who is coming and already has interviews lined up, and we are

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going to follow her through next year, because we want to see what

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the reality is. There is the idea that we are going to be flooded by

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people from other countries who will take our benefits, and nobody is

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interrogating whether that is true. Do you think they should be able to

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speak English? It will obviously help get a job. But what about our

:06:11.:06:14.

people who retire to Spain. They can't speak Spanish. But they are

:06:15.:06:22.

not taking benefits. But they need access to benefits they get over

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there. They have access to the health care system, that is a quid

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pro quo. We have to be careful that it is not one rule for us and

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another for everyone else. What is wrong with that? Right, time for a

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quiz. What does David Cameron want for Christmas? A new smartphone with

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megapixel camera? A Nigella Lawson cookbook? A Mumford Sons CD?

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Awesome squidgy tennis balls? Do you know the answer? I could have a

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guess. Don't. Now, should it be illegal to pay for sex? Last week,

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France became the latest European country to decide it should be. The

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French government is following the so-called Nordic model where it is

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the purchaser and not the seller of sex who faces criminal action. In

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the UK, paying for a prostitute is not illegal, but soliciting, curb

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crawling and running a brothel are. Our laws are increasingly out of

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step with the rest of Europe, with more countries like France and

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Northern Ireland following the example of Sweden, which changed its

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laws in 1998 and is said to have cut street prostitution by two thirds.

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Even countries like the Netherlands and Germany, where prostitution has

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been legal for a number of years, are becoming disillusioned and are

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considering tightening their laws. It means the UK could be out of step

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with the rest of Europe and a number of MPs, peers and women's groups

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said Britain could become a magnet for prostitution unless we change

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our laws. It could put pressure on Theresa May to tighten prostitution

:08:10.:08:12.

laws as part of the government 's human trafficking bill due to be

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published this month. But senior police officers are already warning

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that any change in the law would be difficult to enforce. I am joined

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now by the Labour MEP Mary Honeyball, who wants the UK to

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follow the rest of Europe in changing our laws, and Charlie

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Daniels, a former sex worker who wrote a book on her experiences.

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Mary Honeyball, the police chief in charge of dealing with prostitution

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in England and Wales says changing the law to prosecute those buying

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sex will" drive prostitutes into dark and unsafe areas of our

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cities". Well, they already are often in dark and unsafe areas. Of

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course, the police will have a respect on this, but as you said in

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the introduction, a lot of European governments as well as myself now

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believe that we should be looking at reducing prostitution and at the

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same time reducing human trafficking, which is closely linked

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to it. Some statistics say as much as 90% of those women who work in

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prosecution have been trafficked. But prostitution and trafficking are

:09:30.:09:32.

of course connected, but they are also separate issues. Trafficking is

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illegal. Prostitution has a different set of laws. We have the

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power at the moment to deal with trafficking if we choose to do so.

:09:43.:09:47.

You want to change the law on prostitution. There is evidence from

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Sweden, where they have had this law since 1996, that if you criminalise

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the buyer, usually a man, the number of women trafficked will go down.

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But the evidence is that they are off the streets, but they could have

:10:03.:10:08.

gone elsewhere. The Danish are not keen on this. But the police officer

:10:09.:10:16.

who made those comments, it is the streets that are the dark and

:10:17.:10:21.

dangerous places. What do you think? I am not a former sex worker, I am a

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current sex worker and I defend the right of any woman who chooses to

:10:27.:10:32.

sell her body behind closed doors, causing no other in legal issues.

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And what is your attitude to the changes that Mary wants to see? I am

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jaded with this argument. I have had 20 years of people suggesting

:10:43.:10:47.

decriminalisation, changing this or that law. There is an obvious

:10:48.:10:51.

solution. But it does not suit politicians. It is positive

:10:52.:10:55.

intervention with young people in care. 90% of young people in care

:10:56.:11:02.

who are in institutes and prisons and the street girls, have spent

:11:03.:11:10.

time in care. We need to prevent, not cure. But, clarify, are you

:11:11.:11:22.

against those who pay for sex? I am against the criminalisation of

:11:23.:11:27.

clients for the indoor markets. I do feel that there might be some

:11:28.:11:30.

discussion that is feasible for those women who work on the streets,

:11:31.:11:34.

because the clients who are outdoors those who want a woman without a

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condom or want to kill women or want the woman in a vulnerable situation.

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There is no room for those clients. The Mary Honeyball, how would you

:11:47.:11:48.

enforce this if you were to criminalise the client? In the end,

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this is an act between two people. There is money involved, but there

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has to be consent as well. If neither of them is prepared to admit

:12:00.:12:04.

to money passing hands, how do you enforce it? It is being enforced in

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Sweden, so there are lessons to be learnt from that. Also, I totally

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take what Charlie is saying about sex workers who work indoors. That

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is maybe a different market. But in street prostitution, there is a lot

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of violent and rape involved. There are crimes continually being

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committed. If you look at the trafficking side, that is a crime as

:12:31.:12:35.

well. So there is a huge amount of criminal behaviour happening which

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is already persecuted. In a sense, criminalising the buyer is part of

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that package. The police manage to deal with the other parts of it, so

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this is a case of the police creating difficulty which may not be

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there. I know we have some common ground here, so forgive me, but

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don't you think that if we strip all this back and look at the women who

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are exploited, raped, trafficked and abused, we don't seem to be

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concentrating on them. There is a core of lobbyists who are feminist.

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Forgive me for saying, but you said on your own blog that you don't find

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the sale of sex acceptable. So the problem is that as long as the

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debate is not looking at these serious issues, trafficking is a

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problem that has happened with immigration. Women from other

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countries are already here for commercial reasons because of the

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pound and the euro. Where is the proof that there is going to be a

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big rush? They are here. I have quadrupled in numbers because of lax

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immigration laws. A lot of that is right, and that concerns me. You are

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also right to say that I don't think it is right that women should be

:14:01.:14:04.

able to sell their bodies. I come at it from that aspect of. But you

:14:05.:14:14.

don't want to criminalise that? Why criminalise my clients if I choose

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to sell my body? Because there was a big issue society needs to tackle,

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which is that prostitution in any society which allows women to sell

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their bodies makes women I meet all. I think you are taking away a

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woman's choice. I don't ask for the vote, I have never voted in my life,

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but these respect the fact that I choose to sell my body and are

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thousands of women who do. Carla, what is your view? It is

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fascinating. We were talking before the show about what side of the

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argument I was on, and I find that on both sides... , oh, no! Women

:14:57.:15:07.

need to be protected. If you criminalise this further, it will

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force people down those alleyways. It is the oldest profession in the

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books. I think men will always find a way to pay for sex, and if we

:15:16.:15:19.

criminalise it, will we put more women at risk 's --? What would

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happen to the porn industry? It is very closely linked. It involves

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pavement... The thing about the porn industry... We need to look at it

:15:45.:15:49.

more closely than we are. There's a lot of evidence coming out that

:15:50.:15:53.

teenagers who look at porn actually get very unrealistic

:15:54.:15:57.

expectations... I agree with you, I've seen it with the younger

:15:58.:16:02.

clients. We do need to educate men about sex and respectability. You've

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seen the impact of younger people looking at porn? Absolutely. I've

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had younger clients who think it is appropriate to spit on someone

:16:13.:16:16.

because they've seen that in a movie. Completely inappropriate. We

:16:17.:16:21.

do need to protect the vulnerable women in the industry. I completely

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agree with you all stop I've talked to quite a lot of survivors, most of

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whom have come from that sort of background, have come from care, who

:16:30.:16:36.

were exploited. I came from care but I choose to do this now. Respect

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that decision. What do the words "digital switchover" mean to you?

:16:42.:16:45.

It's likely you're thinking of the move of terrestrial TV from analogue

:16:46.:16:48.

to digital. But there's another digital switchover in the offing -

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for radio. It was originally slated to happen in 2015, but in a speech

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next week the Culture Minister, Ed Vaizey, is expected to announce the

:16:56.:16:59.

date has been pushed back. Here's Giles.

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Digital radio. No more hiss, crystal clear sound, lots of choice, but AM

:17:09.:17:17.

and FM switch off. That was the deal. But in terms of that process,

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government, manufacturers and broadcasters have had to go back to

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the drawing board and adapt the plan, because building public

:17:27.:17:29.

interest from scratch as proved harder than expected. Here at Pure

:17:30.:17:39.

Radio's headquarters, they made a commercial decision to create set

:17:40.:17:44.

that get both signals. If you go back about ten years, it became very

:17:45.:17:50.

clear very quickly that not only the UK but all international markets,

:17:51.:17:54.

the transition to digital would be a relatively slow process with many

:17:55.:17:59.

steps along the way, as networks roll-out. It was important that

:18:00.:18:04.

there was the capability for radios to take care of the digital signal

:18:05.:18:08.

but also the analogue signal as well. That's a recognition that even

:18:09.:18:12.

though they are world leaders in digital radio, and that this country

:18:13.:18:16.

leads the world in hardware and software inside them, in terms of

:18:17.:18:20.

the method of transmission, which they don't control, the public seem

:18:21.:18:24.

not to be entirely on the same wavelength. The original idea was

:18:25.:18:28.

that when digital listening reached 50%, people would have two years to

:18:29.:18:34.

switch over. Now digital listening is below that, so what I'm saying is

:18:35.:18:38.

I don't think we should give people this narrow two your window.

:18:39.:18:43.

Instead, we should look for digital listening to be 75% before we decide

:18:44.:18:49.

on the switchover term. So far, only a fifth of us have switched. Just

:18:50.:18:54.

one in 20 of us have it in our cars. Smaller FM stations have complained

:18:55.:18:57.

at the much higher cost of broadcast, and our coverage areas is

:18:58.:19:01.

patchy. And if you don't have a digital set, if analogue is switched

:19:02.:19:05.

off you will have to buy one. In the middle of a cost of living crisis, I

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think that's a cost that people don't need. It might cost somebody

:19:10.:19:44.

between ?20 to ?50 at, and ?100 to convert their car. That is quite a

:19:45.:19:47.

lot of money. The digital will be the future, that's not in doubt.

:19:48.:19:49.

Next week, the government announces plans for that timetable and the

:19:50.:19:51.

industry, a UK success story, is wary. When it comes to processor

:19:52.:19:54.

core technology, the kind of electronics that's driving this

:19:55.:19:56.

graphics programme and makes digital radios work, Britain leads the

:19:57.:19:58.

world. But when it comes to business, and all businesses, the

:19:59.:20:00.

last thing they want and need is unc ertainty. With uncertainty, a

:20:01.:20:02.

business like ourselves can plan around that. But the with

:20:03.:20:04.

uncertainty, a business like ourselves can plan around that. But

:20:05.:20:06.

preparing their product range and strategies and delivery of digital

:20:07.:20:08.

radio stations and retailers can plan around that and make sure they

:20:09.:20:10.

are preparing their product range and strategies and delivery of ready

:20:11.:20:13.

for the consumer, but consumer. If we are able to give a certainty to

:20:14.:20:15.

digital switchover, consumers can make sure that when they are buying

:20:16.:20:18.

a new product that digital is standard within that product what is

:20:19.:20:20.

in the best interest of the consumer. If we are able to give a

:20:21.:20:23.

certainty to digital switchover, consumers can make sure that when

:20:24.:20:25.

they are buying a new product that digital is standard within that And

:20:26.:20:33.

we've been joined by Ford Ennals, who, as the chief executive of

:20:34.:20:36.

Digital Radio UK, is responsible for preparing the ground for digital

:20:37.:20:40.

switchover. In the world of digital radio, politicking has potential

:20:41.:20:42.

risks, and nobody wants the idea to become a complete Ed Vaizey will be

:20:43.:20:49.

making a speech at the BBC on Monday. He will digital is the

:20:50.:20:56.

future for radio. He will say we are planning a digital switchover. What

:20:57.:21:00.

he won't say is he is setting a date. He will say that there will be

:21:01.:21:04.

government digital is the future for radio. He will say we are planning a

:21:05.:21:07.

digital switchover. What he won't say is he is setting a date. He will

:21:08.:21:19.

say that there will be DA people love DAV if they've got great

:21:20.:21:23.

reception. If they happened, they are concerned. We need to make sure

:21:24.:21:34.

that people will get a robust signal people love DAV if they've got great

:21:35.:21:36.

reception. If they happened, they are concerned. We need to make sure

:21:37.:21:39.

that people will get a robust signal. Just as we did with TV, we

:21:40.:21:44.

built transmitter so everyone could get the will mean. What the

:21:45.:21:47.

government will confirm on Monday is they are going to sustain it hit

:21:48.:21:56.

will happen on radio as well. You asked a question about FM and what

:21:57.:21:58.

it will mean. What the government will confirm on Monday is they are

:21:59.:22:01.

going to sustain, and the Minister will say it is not happening in 20,

:22:02.:22:04.

and the Minister will say it is not happening in 2015

:22:05.:22:47.

The digital radios you get today have FM as well.

:22:48.:22:54.

The local stations will stay on FM. But I am talking about the national

:22:55.:23:01.

stations. You need to get a digital set or listen on your iPad or your

:23:02.:23:06.

iPhone. But we are talking about seven years away, and think about

:23:07.:23:10.

the trans-formation we have already seen. Almost half of homes have a

:23:11.:23:15.

Diaby radio already. So you are right, there will be a transition of

:23:16.:23:23.

the national BBC services from FM to digital and other platforms. But

:23:24.:23:28.

will cricket still be on the long wait 's that is for the BBC to

:23:29.:23:32.

decide. No call has been made on that. This could be the game

:23:33.:23:40.

changer! You are on a fine edge here. At the moment, you can listen

:23:41.:23:45.

to the cricket overnight on 5 Live sports extra. If you compare that

:23:46.:23:51.

with trying to listen on medium wave, where the quality is very

:23:52.:23:57.

poor... Do people still listen to medium wave? They do. 7 million

:23:58.:24:02.

still listen to talk sport and 5 Live. But you would not want music

:24:03.:24:09.

on medium wave. There is some music. Absolute have music on there. But we

:24:10.:24:12.

would expect to see a transition from medium wave to FM and digital.

:24:13.:24:27.

But it is a lot of money to replace all the radios in different rooms.

:24:28.:24:38.

In the home, there are about two radios that everybody is using, and

:24:39.:24:39.

many others that are dormant. Freeview is digital as well. The big

:24:40.:25:02.

talk was that is going to go to the mobile phone companies for 4G. They

:25:03.:25:07.

will need new equipment. That will cause a new row as well. I don't

:25:08.:25:11.

think there's any announcement about that yet. What we are focusing on is

:25:12.:25:19.

this transition over a period of time. Digital radio is now lost...

:25:20.:25:26.

I've got a digital radio in my car. The quality is not that great. It

:25:27.:25:33.

will be where you have great reception and coverage. But that's

:25:34.:25:37.

true of FM as well. What will be announced on Monday by the Minister

:25:38.:25:41.

is an investment in hundreds of transmitters that will improve

:25:42.:25:45.

coverage, particularly on road networks. Good. You are in a perfect

:25:46.:25:50.

position to lobby to make sure that the cricket is still on the right

:25:51.:25:59.

wave. Are you ready? Do you listen to radio on the radio? I don't, I

:26:00.:26:04.

don't use radio now. I get it all through my tablet and smartphone. I

:26:05.:26:10.

love it. Menu to tablet and smartphone, but I've also got one of

:26:11.:26:15.

these boxes that you put your iPhone in as well. That allows you to get

:26:16.:26:22.

better sound. An old steam radio, whose death has been predicted again

:26:23.:26:26.

and again, the more ways you can listen to radio, whether through

:26:27.:26:30.

your satellite system, Freeview or through the tablets and all the rest

:26:31.:26:34.

of it, I think the more people are listening to radio. Radio has been

:26:35.:26:39.

incredibly robust, over 90% of people still listen to radio every

:26:40.:26:43.

week. But we can't stand still. We do need to make this transition

:26:44.:26:47.

towards digital. We need to discuss that on Monday and work to deliver

:26:48.:26:58.

it over the next seven years. Good luck, because there's going to be a

:26:59.:27:01.

huge row. You never mess with the radio for audience, you know that!

:27:02.:27:11.

It's 2014, the decorations are packed away, you've recovered from

:27:12.:27:16.

your festive hangovers and that unfortunate incident with the

:27:17.:27:19.

eggnog. But what does the world look like now, and what are the odds on a

:27:20.:27:23.

happy political New Year? In a moment, we will talk to Philip

:27:24.:27:28.

Coggan, who makes predictions for the Economist. Now let's cross to

:27:29.:27:34.

College Green. Give us the odds for next year, Alex. The one I think

:27:35.:27:38.

would be most relevant to you is the Scottish independence. For- one.

:27:39.:27:52.

That was 5-1 we've cut the odds. I've got people who work for me, you

:27:53.:27:56.

know. There's growing confidence. At first the odds were quite long. We

:27:57.:28:01.

thought it was almost certain to be no. But there seems to be more

:28:02.:28:05.

confidence returning to the yes. One man in Scotland yesterday put

:28:06.:28:10.

?10,000 down. Was that Alex Salmond? I'm not sure. Still against

:28:11.:28:18.

independence. You put up ?1 down and you get ?4 back if the Scots vote to

:28:19.:28:23.

go. You look pretty clear that UKIP is in with a very good chance of

:28:24.:28:29.

coming top of the poll. Absolutely. Even money favourite. They've been

:28:30.:28:32.

the favourite for quite a long time. Labour just behind them. When I was

:28:33.:28:37.

speaking to our political compiler yesterday, he says that of all the

:28:38.:28:40.

bets on the board here today, this is the best bet. Take us through all

:28:41.:28:50.

the other odds you've got there. Millar interest rates to rise, 4-6.

:28:51.:28:57.

That's the most likely to happen. 11-10 the other side. Ed Balls will

:28:58.:29:01.

be replaced at 3-1. That would suggest he is probably fairly safe.

:29:02.:29:05.

Boris Johnson to be parachuted into the House of Commons at 5-1. That

:29:06.:29:12.

should be 10-1. Looking at things that have real outside chances,

:29:13.:29:17.

England to win the World Cup, 33 - one. That should be 50-1! What are

:29:18.:29:23.

the odds on us winning the third test? You name your price, I don't

:29:24.:29:34.

think that's happening. We are joined by Philip Coggan, from the

:29:35.:29:38.

Economist magazine. You do this every year will stop what did you

:29:39.:29:44.

get wrong about 2013? Golly. I'm sure we got lots wrong. I can't

:29:45.:29:52.

remember. It's the best thing not to remember. I think it's important we

:29:53.:29:58.

work that out, so we can work that if we listen to you in 2014. What do

:29:59.:30:02.

you think the themes will be for next year? The big theme is the

:30:03.:30:08.

threat to Western democracy. We are seeing a bottom-up problem, voters

:30:09.:30:12.

are not getting the improvements and prosperity they expect. They are

:30:13.:30:15.

seeing years of austerity and are turning to extremes. There is a

:30:16.:30:19.

top-down problem, which is that the decisions people make up being taken

:30:20.:30:23.

not out of the hands of voters but out of the hands of elected

:30:24.:30:43.

representatives. Central bankers are the most powerful people in the

:30:44.:30:45.

world. Fiscal policy in Europe is moving out of the hands of

:30:46.:30:47.

governments and towards Brussels. If you add in the courts, which are

:30:48.:30:50.

often on a European wide basis, the IMF is a very powerful force, then

:30:51.:30:53.

voters vote, but do they really decide on who the powerful people

:30:54.:30:55.

are who get into office? You were pro-European, probing new row for a

:30:56.:30:58.

while as well. But we are in favour of a reformed EU. We all want that.

:30:59.:31:03.

Whether David Cameron can get that is a different matter. Marine Le Pen

:31:04.:31:08.

to do very well in next year's elections in France. UKIP, as we've

:31:09.:31:12.

just seen in the odds, are to do well. There could be about 35% of

:31:13.:31:17.

the European Parliament by next summer who will be outside the

:31:18.:31:23.

mainstream right and sometimes the hard right. Absolutely, you have far

:31:24.:31:32.

right parties in Scandinavia, the Netherlands and Austria. There was

:31:33.:31:39.

one in Italy. There is a vote in most of these countries of a quarter

:31:40.:31:43.

to a third of people who are willing to try something new. In Ireland,

:31:44.:31:50.

21% of the vote is going to Sinn Fein. In recent years, you have

:31:51.:31:56.

chucked out governance of the centre-left or centre-right, put in

:31:57.:32:00.

the opposition and got exactly the same policies, and people are fed up

:32:01.:32:03.

with it. They don't see a difference between the two main parties, and

:32:04.:32:08.

they are looking at who can offer something new. What about our

:32:09.:32:11.

backyard? Cameron, Clegg and Miliband? Starting with Cameron,

:32:12.:32:17.

everything depends on the state of the economy. Recent figures have

:32:18.:32:22.

been quite good. We worry that too much of it is based on consumption

:32:23.:32:28.

and not enough on revival and manufacturing. That is right, in

:32:29.:32:32.

terms of the electoral cycle, he may get away with that for most of

:32:33.:32:38.

2014. Yes, if anything goes wrong with that, it is more likely to be a

:32:39.:32:42.

year or so ahead. It is very unlikely that interest rates will

:32:43.:32:46.

rise next year, which means housing will not come under pressure. What

:32:47.:32:53.

is the having post-prediction for 2014? There are similarities in

:32:54.:33:01.

terms of the non-mainstream parties. They will rise next year. My concern

:33:02.:33:05.

is where young people are being mobilised. They are totally turned

:33:06.:33:09.

off politics. They don't believe in people elected by their parents and

:33:10.:33:13.

generations before them. We have big personalities saying, don't bother

:33:14.:33:18.

voting, it doesn't make a difference. I passionately hope

:33:19.:33:22.

politicians will start talking to young people. They do. In France,

:33:23.:33:29.

the largest percentage of young people in the 18-30 group of voting

:33:30.:33:33.

for the National Front. They have tapped into the youth vote . Is that

:33:34.:33:40.

because those are the only politicians talking to young

:33:41.:33:44.

people? And the centralist parties who have held power have got

:33:45.:33:48.

complacent and stopped talking to the generations coming up and are

:33:49.:33:52.

just worried about those who did or did not vote for them last time.

:33:53.:33:56.

Young people don't vote, old people do, and old people are getting the

:33:57.:34:02.

benefits out of the pension and state, and young people have to pay

:34:03.:34:06.

for it. If you are an established petition, you are drawn to appeal to

:34:07.:34:12.

the elderly. If you look at youth unemployment, 60% in Spain, 30% in

:34:13.:34:17.

France, it is remarkable that the extremes have not done better. Yes,

:34:18.:34:23.

we are lucky in that they often appear a bit thuggish. And they are

:34:24.:34:30.

not socially liberal, so that cuts them down. In Greece, you have 27%

:34:31.:34:38.

or 28% voting for the far left. Thank you for that. Now, time to get

:34:39.:34:42.

the answer to our question. What does David Cameron want for

:34:43.:34:45.

Christmas? A smartphone, a Nigella Lawson cookbook, a Mumford Sons CD

:34:46.:34:53.

or some squidgy tennis balls? I will go for the squidgy tennis balls.

:34:54.:35:03.

What does that mean? I don't know. Neither do I, but he says that is

:35:04.:35:06.

what he wants to play with his kids. Coming up in a moment, our

:35:07.:35:12.

regular look at what has been going on in European politics. For now,

:35:13.:35:15.

can't say goodbye my guest of the day, Carla.

:35:16.:35:21.

So, for the next half-hour we will be focusing on Europe. We will

:35:22.:35:25.

discuss the situation in Ukraine. The new coalition government in

:35:26.:35:29.

Germany, and the reform of the European fisheries policy. First,

:35:30.:35:32.

our guide to the latest from Europe in 60 seconds.

:35:33.:35:41.

Good news for plug-in air passengers. The European Commission

:35:42.:35:45.

says that in the future, devices like smartphones, tablets and

:35:46.:35:48.

e-readers can be kept on in-flight mode during taxiing, take-off and

:35:49.:35:54.

landing. The Maltese approved a controversial plan to sell their

:35:55.:35:56.

passport for more than half ?1 million a time, in effect allowing

:35:57.:36:00.

wealthy people to buy you citizenship.

:36:01.:36:05.

-- EU citizenship. Pro-EU Ukrainians were attacked by

:36:06.:36:11.

riot police during a visit by European foreign holiday chief

:36:12.:36:13.

Baroness Ashton. The European Parliament approved a

:36:14.:36:17.

new plan for trading power in mission credits. They are hoping to

:36:18.:36:24.

encourage industries to cut back on greenhouse gas emissions.

:36:25.:36:29.

Finally, MEPs agreed changes to the common fisheries policy. From

:36:30.:36:33.

January, overfishing and growing edible fish back into the sea will

:36:34.:36:43.

be banned. With us now for the next 30 minutes,

:36:44.:36:47.

I have enjoined by the new leader of the Conservative MEPs, Syed Kamall,

:36:48.:36:51.

and by the Lib Dem MEP Chris Davies. Let's look at one of those stories

:36:52.:36:55.

the European Parliament on fishing. You have been campaigning for

:36:56.:37:03.

changes. Are you happy? It is a work in progress. There will be loopholes

:37:04.:37:08.

that have to be tightened, but it is a dramatic transformation. The CFP,

:37:09.:37:13.

the common fisheries policy, has been condemned for years because of

:37:14.:37:18.

overfishing and the like. At the heart of the CFP reform is a legal

:37:19.:37:22.

requirement to rebuild fish stocks when setting annual quotas and to

:37:23.:37:29.

end the discarding of fish. What is the timescale? The discarding ban

:37:30.:37:35.

comes in from 2015 . The rest of the policy will be implemented as soon

:37:36.:37:40.

as possible. Syed Kamall, are you happy? Yes, it has been one of those

:37:41.:37:44.

issues which has got consensus across political groups. We both

:37:45.:37:49.

agree that more power should be brought back to member state. We

:37:50.:37:56.

also agree on trying to end the process of discarding. So this is a

:37:57.:38:02.

reform that has happened. Of all the issues people hate about the EU, the

:38:03.:38:07.

CF he is at the top. This is a demonstration that it is possible to

:38:08.:38:11.

bring about sensible reform and rebuild Europe's fish stocks. Now,

:38:12.:38:16.

let's look at the situation in Ukraine. This week, pro-EU citizens

:38:17.:38:20.

have continued their protests in the capital city of Kiev against the

:38:21.:38:24.

decision of the Ukrainian government not to sign a deal on closer in you

:38:25.:38:29.

ties. Riot police confronted the protesters, tearing down are caves.

:38:30.:38:33.

The confrontation started when President Viktor Yanukovych

:38:34.:38:37.

announced last month that he would not sign an agreement on free trade

:38:38.:38:43.

with the EU, despite years of negotiations. His change of heart

:38:44.:38:50.

came after pressure from Russia. You's -- pee you's high

:38:51.:38:53.

representative on foreign affairs, Cathy Ashton, has been to Kiev this

:38:54.:38:57.

week for talks with the president. She says he told her he intends to

:38:58.:39:03.

sign the agreement after all. President Yanukovych made it clear

:39:04.:39:06.

to me that he intends to sign the agreement. He talked about the

:39:07.:39:10.

short-term economic issues that the country faces. It is my view that

:39:11.:39:15.

those challenges, which are real, can be addressed by the support that

:39:16.:39:21.

not only comes from the European Union institutions, but by showing

:39:22.:39:28.

that he has a serious economic plan inside the agreement, which will

:39:29.:39:33.

help to bring in investment. We are joined now by Ian Bond, director of

:39:34.:39:38.

foreign policy at the think-tank, the Centre for European Reform. His

:39:39.:39:43.

President Yanukovych really going to sign this? We think his family is

:39:44.:39:48.

involved in some of these deals. Will he do it? He has said he is

:39:49.:39:53.

going to do it. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Will

:39:54.:39:58.

the Russians allow him to do it? That is neither here nor there. He

:39:59.:40:04.

is not dependent on Russian gas as he was a few years ago. The fact

:40:05.:40:12.

that the EU has brokered a deal to open the pipelines from Slovakia

:40:13.:40:15.

back into the Ukraine means that he has more options there. But if the

:40:16.:40:20.

Kremlin turn nasty, they could make life unpleasant or Ukraine. They

:40:21.:40:26.

could in the short-term, but in the long-term, that is more likely to

:40:27.:40:31.

drive Ukraine Westwood stands as wedding them to stick with Russia.

:40:32.:40:39.

President Yanukovych is an old-style autocrat, isn't it? He is not the

:40:40.:40:44.

ideal man to be trying to do business with. Is that what we call

:40:45.:40:52.

a British understatement? Weak probably. But he was the elected

:40:53.:41:01.

leader in 2010 and his term runs until 2015. So unless some

:41:02.:41:04.

constitutional way is found for the opposition to take over from him, we

:41:05.:41:07.

have no option but to deal with him. But there economy is shot to

:41:08.:41:21.

hell. That is one of the drivers for Ukraine to get a better relationship

:41:22.:41:24.

with the EU. They need to get a deal with the IMF, and the best way to do

:41:25.:41:29.

that is with the help of EU. They want a lot of money from Europe. I

:41:30.:41:34.

don't think they will get the 20 billion euros they are asking for,

:41:35.:41:37.

but if they get more trade with Europe, we will buy things from them

:41:38.:41:40.

and they will certainly buy more things from European Union

:41:41.:41:44.

countries, which means they will buy less from Russia. And who buys

:41:45.:41:51.

anything from Russia other than gas or oil? They don't make anything.

:41:52.:41:58.

Russia regards Ukraine as their sphere of influence. Looking at the

:41:59.:42:05.

way they behaved to Georgia and threats they have made to other

:42:06.:42:08.

places, I would have thought this has the potential to be a major

:42:09.:42:16.

international crisis. There was a possibility there. The relationship

:42:17.:42:18.

between Russia and Ukraine is more balanced than you might think. There

:42:19.:42:26.

are a lot of producers in eastern Ukraine who still supply the Russian

:42:27.:42:29.

defence industry. So there is a limit to how far the Russians would

:42:30.:42:33.

want to go to damage Ukrainian industry. We know that the West is

:42:34.:42:42.

more westward looking. The young people are protesting in favour of

:42:43.:42:47.

Europe and so on. We know the East is more Russians teaching and more

:42:48.:42:51.

looking towards Moscow. Is there a possibility but the country could

:42:52.:42:55.

split? That is unlikely. The Russians underestimate the extent to

:42:56.:42:59.

which people, regardless of the language they speak, feel

:43:00.:43:05.

Ukrainian. The polling supports that. How big a deal is this for

:43:06.:43:15.

Europe? It is a big deal. We are not getting letters from constituents

:43:16.:43:21.

saying this is important, but the EU feels on the back foot because of

:43:22.:43:25.

the economic crisis. But here we have, in Kiev, people waving EU

:43:26.:43:31.

flags and saying, our future is with the European Union. And pulling down

:43:32.:43:37.

statues of Lenin. Very interesting. You thought you would see that 20

:43:38.:43:42.

years ago. President Yanukovych tried to play off Russia against the

:43:43.:43:46.

EU in order to get money, and it has not worked. Both Russia and the EU

:43:47.:43:56.

think they are moving closer to their position. Will Europe have to

:43:57.:44:02.

send development aid to Ukraine? I don't think so. Opening up trading

:44:03.:44:08.

possibilities, lowering tariffs barriers and so on will help the

:44:09.:44:14.

Ukrainian economy. There might have to be some short-term bridging

:44:15.:44:20.

loans, but the main economic input has to come from the IMF. But it is

:44:21.:44:25.

not just about trade, it is also about democratic reforms and

:44:26.:44:29.

respecting pluralism and European values, as well as a more prosperous

:44:30.:44:36.

economy. There was a time when Ukraine was considerably more

:44:37.:44:39.

prosperous than Poland. Now Poland is considerably more prosperous than

:44:40.:44:44.

Ukraine. You could say the glass is half full rather than half empty.

:44:45.:44:48.

There is huge ground it could make up. Absolutely. For years, is the

:44:49.:44:54.

Ukraine was a breadbasket for the old countries of the Soviet Union.

:44:55.:44:59.

There is a lot of ground to make up, but Ukraine has to decide which way

:45:00.:45:04.

to go. Optimistic? Cautiously positive. Back in September, German

:45:05.:45:14.

voters went to the polls to elect a new government. And now with

:45:15.:45:17.

Christmas just around the corner, Germany could be about to get a new

:45:18.:45:21.

government, a coalition of the conservative CDU and the social

:45:22.:45:23.

democratic SPD. This grand coalition is expected to get the final

:45:24.:45:33.

go-ahead this weekend. But will an alliance of parties from the left

:45:34.:45:37.

and right herald a new direction for the European Union? Jo Coburn went

:45:38.:45:48.

to Berlin to investigate. The result of the election here in Germany back

:45:49.:45:53.

in September saw Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats emerge as the

:45:54.:45:56.

largest party, but still in need of coalition partners in order to form

:45:57.:46:02.

a government. After almost 90 days of negotiation, it looks as if that

:46:03.:46:05.

coalition is about to be formed between the left and right here in

:46:06.:46:10.

Germany. But will the news bring any festive cheer to the people here and

:46:11.:46:12.

across Europe? So the picture of government here

:46:13.:46:35.

will look different in 2014. And it's clear which political direction

:46:36.:46:39.

the social Democrats are taking the coalition. Even though the

:46:40.:46:43.

Conservatives on the majority party in this coalition, everything is

:46:44.:46:46.

moving towards the left. For example, we are going to see a

:46:47.:46:50.

minimum wage being instituted here in Germany, and expansion of

:46:51.:46:56.

pensions. So possibly big changes on the cards policy wise at home in

:46:57.:47:00.

Germany, but what about relations with other European countries? In

:47:01.:47:05.

Britain, David Cameron's attempts to take back powers from Brussels

:47:06.:47:09.

certainly isn't going down well with many Social Democrats here. They

:47:10.:47:17.

hate it. In Germany, not only by the Democrats, but especially with them,

:47:18.:47:21.

there's a widespread feeling that England is cutting loose from Europe

:47:22.:47:24.

and going its own way with the dreaded United States. That is very

:47:25.:47:28.

widespread opinion. The Prime Minister may find common ground with

:47:29.:47:32.

Angela Merkel's sister party in the coalition, the CSU. Particularly

:47:33.:47:36.

when it comes to the issue of EU and benefits. We are in line with

:47:37.:47:44.

Cameron, concerned with restriction of migration in our social security

:47:45.:47:51.

systems. But we would not generally restrict the freedom -- the freedom

:47:52.:47:59.

of movement, but prevent people from Romania and Bulgaria, for example,

:48:00.:48:06.

to come to Germany only to benefit from our social security systems.

:48:07.:48:11.

David Cameron's working relationship with Angela Merkel will be critical

:48:12.:48:16.

to any future reform of the EU. I think she is quite open to support

:48:17.:48:21.

Cameron if it comes to really pragmatic improvements. But if it

:48:22.:48:27.

comes to give the Brits a special... Special treatment because

:48:28.:48:32.

his domestic constituency is demanding for it, but if it doesn't

:48:33.:48:36.

make sense in practical terms she will strictly oppose it. So Great

:48:37.:48:40.

Britain and the rest of Europe will watch with interest as Germany's new

:48:41.:48:45.

government gets to work, and see how much influence the left wing part of

:48:46.:48:49.

the coalition has an daily life. Every coalition partner has impact

:48:50.:48:54.

on the direction of this government. However, the

:48:55.:49:01.

Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is very strong in all European issues. The

:49:02.:49:06.

powerhouse of Europe is heralding in a new grand coalition in time for

:49:07.:49:10.

Christmas. But any change in political direction for Germany is

:49:11.:49:13.

unlikely to be dramatic at this stage, as all eyes will be on the

:49:14.:49:22.

European elections next spring. One of the dangers of this

:49:23.:49:26.

coalition, we will come to the implications for Britain in a

:49:27.:49:30.

minute, but one of the dangers for Germany is it could be a recipe for

:49:31.:49:34.

rigor mortis. It could be. The agreement is 185 pages long. We have

:49:35.:49:41.

to get used to the idea that we have to give our politicians more time to

:49:42.:49:44.

forge a coalition agreement in future. It could be. On the other

:49:45.:49:49.

hand, it's a fascinating partnership. You have the CDU trying

:49:50.:49:52.

to drive forward the economic enterprise. Then you have the others

:49:53.:49:58.

saying a higher minimum wage and the like. A stronger economy, fairer

:49:59.:50:04.

society. Unlike the Conservatives in this country, Mrs Merkel was never

:50:05.:50:09.

ideological opposed to the minimum wage. She was quite sympathetic to

:50:10.:50:15.

it. We look at Germany, the latest German industrial production figures

:50:16.:50:19.

are terrible. We look at Germany as the one economic success story. But

:50:20.:50:24.

it has two major problems. A huge productivity problem because the

:50:25.:50:27.

population is ageing and collapsing, there will be 6 million

:50:28.:50:31.

fewer Germans by 2030. And they have an energy policy which is proving to

:50:32.:50:35.

be a disaster. The one really successful heavy industry country in

:50:36.:50:40.

Europe and the energy policy doesn't match. I suggest to you that the

:50:41.:50:44.

coalition will do nothing to tackle these two fundamental issues. I

:50:45.:50:48.

wonder about that. What often happens, politicians go into an

:50:49.:50:52.

election with all sorts of claims, then you knuckle down and get down

:50:53.:50:56.

to the reality, not only of coalition politics but also the

:50:57.:51:00.

world outside. Think about the way that Francois Hollande has tackled

:51:01.:51:03.

some issues in a completely unexpected way. Reality will bite.

:51:04.:51:09.

Conservative MEPs using Francois Hollande as an example of good

:51:10.:51:13.

things that might happen to Germany, can you explain how that is going to

:51:14.:51:17.

work? Merkel has been looking over her shoulder at the position on

:51:18.:51:23.

nuclear power, for example. She was looking at the leader of the SDP and

:51:24.:51:29.

saying, I don't want to be attacked by him. Now they are together and

:51:30.:51:34.

they had to sort out this energy policy. And they are building more

:51:35.:51:40.

coal-fired stations. It's madness. Subsidising solar power and building

:51:41.:51:45.

the new stations. And they are using the dirtiest possible coal

:51:46.:51:48.

imaginable. Here's the rub for Mr Cameron. There were a lot of

:51:49.:51:52.

indications that Mrs Merkel was prepared to help Mr Cameron

:51:53.:51:57.

repatriate, in his repatriating mission, no details but she seemed

:51:58.:52:01.

reasonably sympathetic. We know the social Democrats have no sympathy

:52:02.:52:05.

with this. This is a problem for the British Prime Minister. Cameron has

:52:06.:52:09.

talked more about reformed and repatriation. Both Merkel and

:52:10.:52:16.

Cameron, if you look at the situation they both face, they are

:52:17.:52:19.

both strong leaders at the head of coalitions. They will make sure, by

:52:20.:52:23.

working together, that they achieve as much of that reform as they can.

:52:24.:52:27.

I would suggest the real significance is not the fact that a

:52:28.:52:33.

grand coalition has been formed. It is that the institution that has run

:52:34.:52:36.

Europe for 60 years, the Franco German alliance, has broken down.

:52:37.:52:43.

Yes, it has. The leader of the left within the new Hjohlman coalition, I

:52:44.:52:46.

doubt he has much time for Francois Hollande. It's just a matter of who

:52:47.:52:53.

is credible. This is no longer a Europe of 15, it is 28 nations. They

:52:54.:52:58.

have potential for building new alliances. You know that what gave

:52:59.:53:03.

Europe its drive, the summit their direction and what decisions was the

:53:04.:53:07.

fact that Paris and Berlin... But that was then and this is now. New

:53:08.:53:14.

member states, Poland, getting stronger and stronger. No proper

:53:15.:53:19.

banking union. The banking union, a major step was taken this week. The

:53:20.:53:26.

risk is still with sovereigns. Indeed. It gives us a huge

:53:27.:53:31.

opportunity for the reform agenda, led by Cameron and Merkel. As we

:53:32.:53:34.

were discussing earlier, the European Union's foreign policy

:53:35.:53:37.

supremo Cathy Ashton has been making headlines in recent weeks, getting

:53:38.:53:40.

involved in the crisis in Ukraine as well as recently brokering an

:53:41.:53:44.

international deal on Iran. She heads up an organisation called the

:53:45.:53:49.

External Action Service. Never heard of it? Never fear. Here's Adam. It

:53:50.:54:06.

is in Europe but not in the EU, so Switzerland has an outpost of the

:54:07.:54:11.

External Action Service. The union's three-year-old diplomatic

:54:12.:54:14.

corps. Around 2000 people, about two thirds of the service, are stationed

:54:15.:54:20.

in outposts abroad. Brussels man in Byrne is Richard Jones, on

:54:21.:54:23.

secondment from the Foreign Office after a stint in Iraq. Basra,

:54:24.:54:29.

Brussels, any similarities? They both begin with B but apart from

:54:30.:54:35.

that, no. First up, a meeting of diplomats from the 28 member states.

:54:36.:54:42.

There isn't a name for a group of ambassadors, but critics say there

:54:43.:54:48.

is one too many here. Why can't they just represent what the EU with?

:54:49.:54:52.

They are the members of the EU. That is what we used to do. The

:54:53.:54:56.

difficulty was that the presidency of the Council is a resident for six

:54:57.:55:01.

months. It was like a relay race with people passing the battle

:55:02.:55:05.

over. There's only so much you can do in six months. Then we are off to

:55:06.:55:09.

the Swiss parliament for a chat with MPs, because next year there will be

:55:10.:55:12.

a referendum on limiting migration from the EU. My job here has been to

:55:13.:55:19.

set out the facts as we see them. The arguments which perhaps they

:55:20.:55:24.

wouldn't hear if we didn't have a delegation here to explain them. If

:55:25.:55:29.

that is the EU's relations with one country, here is where they have

:55:30.:55:33.

them with the whole world. This is the headquarters of the UN in

:55:34.:55:39.

Geneva. Working the corridors is the Italian diplomat who heads the

:55:40.:55:46.

mission here. Today she is giving Europe's response to a not exactly

:55:47.:55:49.

thrilling report about development. Every word agreed by EU members in

:55:50.:55:55.

advance. I have the honour to speak on behalf of the European Union and

:55:56.:55:59.

its member states. Britain guards its relations with other countries

:56:00.:56:02.

pretty jealously. When I ask about us, Marie Angela is diplomatic.

:56:03.:56:09.

Sometimes it is a little bit difficult. But I think in the end

:56:10.:56:18.

there is one quality that the UK expresses at least here, and I try

:56:19.:56:21.

to take advantage of that and make of that also my own policy, which is

:56:22.:56:30.

being pragmatic. Don't lose too much time in discussing what we can do or

:56:31.:56:35.

not. But even cheerleaders at the time has been wasted in admin

:56:36.:56:39.

problems in bureaucratic turf wars in setting up the External Action

:56:40.:56:43.

Service. So what is it really like to work for? I read into Brett that

:56:44.:56:48.

you are meant to call an ambassador your Excellency. Do I have to call

:56:49.:56:54.

you that? No, you call me Richard. Do you go to lots of cocktail

:56:55.:57:01.

parties? Guess. Do you get off with lots of parking fines? Absolutely

:57:02.:57:06.

not, I paid a speeding fine yesterday. Is this just a huge

:57:07.:57:10.

bureaucracy, jobs for diplomats around the world is it doing

:57:11.:57:16.

anything? I think it is amazing that the External Action Service is an

:57:17.:57:20.

unknown term. When the Lisbon Treaty was being negotiated, UKIP and

:57:21.:57:24.

others were saying this is the end of the British foreign service. Here

:57:25.:57:28.

we have an organisation which is trying to pull together all these 28

:57:29.:57:31.

different foreign ministers so we are speaking with one voice. It

:57:32.:57:36.

seems a perfectly sensible way to go forward for me. We've not spoken

:57:37.:57:40.

with one voice in Syria or the French intervention in Mali or even

:57:41.:57:46.

in Libya. It's a pretty limited number of issues in which we do

:57:47.:57:51.

speak with one voice. Exactly. And that's what demonstrates why member

:57:52.:57:54.

states have to have a strong foreign service. When it was originally set

:57:55.:57:59.

up, it was supposed to be cost neutral. No extra money from the EU

:58:00.:58:04.

budget. It has cost extra money, 420 million altogether. Some of it was

:58:05.:58:10.

existing resources. It's also got 140 missions around the world, does

:58:11.:58:13.

it need them, particularly when it is trying to duplicate the work of

:58:14.:58:18.

the foreign offices? No, but we should be sharing missions in some

:58:19.:58:21.

places. There were some countries around the world, different

:58:22.:58:27.

countries in the European Union trying to maintain offices there

:58:28.:58:30.

instead of sharing facilities. It is Cathy Ashton, is she leaving on a

:58:31.:58:39.

bit of a hike? She is, no question. A good girl from Wigan. No one

:58:40.:58:45.

expected her to get the job. She was utterly astonished when she got the

:58:46.:58:50.

job. She has had a very rough couple of years. But now, with Iraq and

:58:51.:58:54.

Kosovo and the like, she is on a high. I think people have been very

:58:55.:59:00.

unkind to Cathy Ashton, sometimes justifiably so. But I think she has

:59:01.:59:05.

proved herself with Iran. Her softly softly approach seems to be working.

:59:06.:59:10.

She hasn't got long to go. We will see who gets the job next. That's

:59:11.:59:15.

all for today. Thanks to my guests, Syed Kamall and Chris Davies. Hope

:59:16.:59:21.

to see you again soon. Bye bye.

:59:22.:59:24.

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