21/05/2014 Daily Politics


21/05/2014

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Afternoon, folks, welcome to the Daily Politics.

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It's the final day of campaigning ahead of European

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The leaders are all still out and about, trying to pick up

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last-minute votes in what promises to be one of the most significant

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It wouldn't be an election without a few cock-ups,

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I'm live at the new library in Birmingham to find out how voters

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feel about the candidates in the European elections with less than 24

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hours to go. We'll talk about what not to do

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when you're trying to get elected. And with the polls all over

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the place - well, kind of - we turn the stars to get the real analysis

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our party political astrologer. And with us

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for this elections extravaganza is the pollster's pollster, a man who

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always checks his horoscope - He's conducted more surveys

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than you've had hot dinners. He's probably even run a poll

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about hot dinners. What was the outcome? People like

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them! That cost us ?10,000! So,

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the party leaders are having a busy Ed Miliband has embarked

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on a US-style ten-stop tour of the country, each stop designed to

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highlight a different Labour policy. buy some red roses for his wife

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Justine and promote his pledge to He'll be hoping to move on from

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several gaffes during interviews yesterday, including getting into

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a muddle over how much his flesh yesterday, including getting into

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a muddle over how much his And the Dave and Boris show has hit

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the road, pressing the flesh The Prime Minister didn't buy

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anything for SamCam but he bought Of course, Newark's the scene for

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a crucial by-election on the 5th of June, and the Tories are throwing

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the kitchen sink, which includes their biggest stars, like Boris,

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at the campaign to try to stop And Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg have

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been out on the airwaves, too. Of course, the BBC's going to be

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bringing you coverage of the local elections tomorrow night

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and then again on Friday afternoon. Then overnight on Sunday,

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we'll have those all-important And, as usual, Jeremy Vine has blown

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the Beeb's annual graphics budget. Here he is to explain what's up

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for grabs. The local elections will cover 36

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metropolitan boroughs. Let's look at the map. Most of them held by

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Labour. 19 unitary authorities and the 32 boroughs of London and you

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can see lots of places where people are not voting. If we have a look at

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the result last year you will see what happened and why it was quite

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stunning. This is projected national share as if the local elections had

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been The reason for this is the emergence

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of UKIP at 23% and the first time they have been on this craft. To

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give it some context, we can go back to 2007 and look at the local

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election results. 2007, Conservatives doing well. Labour in

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power. The governing party, as always, getting punished. Gordon

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Brown really struggling. 2010 is the year to focus on. These power seats

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that were up last week. What you see is almost a difficulty for Labour of

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really showing the Conservatives a clean pair of heels. And this is

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quite an unusual pattern, with all three parties here looking quite

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suppressed. Surely that is the effect of UKIP coming in and making

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such an impact. There are also elections to the European

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such an impact. There are also and here is the battle ground. 500

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million people in it! If we look at the UK last time, 12 regions with 73

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MEPs to be sent the UK last time, 12 regions with 73

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only one coloured read last time. the UK last time, 12 regions with 73

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But we can break it down in a slightly simple manner.

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But we can break it down in a UKIP purple where they are strongest

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and some Lib Dem orange as well. But clearly blue tells the story. The

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Conservatives, the overall winners. Half as many for UKIP and Labour.

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Conservatives, the overall winners. The Lib Dems on 11. They

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Conservatives, the overall winners. night. And two for the Greens. That

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was the result last time. What will happen this time? Well, look at the

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polls and what they say about voting intentions in European elections.

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You see an extraordinary intentions in European elections.

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UKIP. This time last intentions in European elections.

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in first place when it intentions in European elections.

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people will vote in a European intentions in European elections.

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and Labour powers through. The Lib Dems really struggling and the

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Conservatives a bit more robust than expected. But here we are at the

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end. And this is what we will be watching during this election. Who

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will take first? Could UKIP really put Labour into second?

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So that is what 21st century graphics look like! I have only seen

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hours! Ben, the polls are all over the place but they are not

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consistent. One thing they seem to be getting consistent is that UKIP

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is the first in the European polls? In most of them and there is one out

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today where people have them level pegging. But certainly UKIP are

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doing much better than last time. They were second last time and if

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they are second this time it will be by a very narrow margin. One thing

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we have to remember is that all polls have a margin of error

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attached to them. The average poll has at least a 3-point error rate.

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So it is getting almost too close to call between Labour and UKIP, but it

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will all be about the machine on the ground and whether you can get your

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voters out. And the postal vote? Yes, and Nigel Farage is hoping that

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will have Been cast before some of the cock ups of the last day or two.

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We have always known that Labour voters are a bit less likely,

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traditionally, to get out. They don't get out to the polling

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station. We will know in a little while. Is possible UKIP, Labour and

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the Tories could be quite close together? That the spread between

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the three will not be huge absolutely. Conservatives probably

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in third place but it is absolutely neck and neck between Labour and

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UKIP and anything could happen, to be quite honest. And pollsters have

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been asking how you would vote in the European elections and then the

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general or even the local tomorrow. What do the local... What do the

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polls tell us about the local elections? To be honest, there

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haven't been a great deal of polls about those because there are so

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many different local circumstances. Labour did pretty well last time. So

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we should see Labour, if they are going to do well at a general

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election, you would want to see them holding on. Trafford is

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interesting. Can Labour in a northern city take Trafford from the

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Conservatives crept -- Conservatives? But they could lose a

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few councillors next time, or on Thursday. Will the local election

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results, when we get them late tomorrow night, will they tell us

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more about the general election than the European election results? To be

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honest, because they are voting at the same time, they will tell us

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more about the European elections because this is the turnout and in

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general elections it is so much higher. One word of caution, these

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almost have no correlation with what happened that General elections.

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Tony Blair got beaten all over the shop by the Conservatives but then

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won handsomely. Who will come first in the European elections? UKIP but

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only probably. And it could change. There you go! He is hedging his

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bets. And I am right to do so! Now, on yesterday's show we were

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in Milton Keynes talking Today we've sent Adam to Britain's

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second biggest city He's there talking to people

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about tomorrow's European elections and he's visiting

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the city's brand new library. Hello, good to see you. Welcome to

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Birmingham and the brand-new library. Look at it glinting there

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in the beautiful summer sunshine. It opened last September and I am told

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it has 800,000 books and even a slightly smaller EU section which

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was empty today, apart from the Daily Politics producers, who were

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swatting up for this item! Out there is the West Midlands, with something

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like four and a bit million voters for the European elections. They

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will be sending seven MEPs to Strasbourg and Brussels as a result

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of this vote but how hard are the party is working to try to win

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voters over? If only there were a tried and tested way to work it out.

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We have brought our famous soapbox and voting box to the famous

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bullring. The question, have you had any contact with the parties? What

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kind have you had? The Conservatives. It was just the

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leaflet. What did you think? I thought it was quite good. What

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about the others? What did that make you think? It made me think, where

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are they? Can you remember anything that was said? I will lead them this

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evening because I have them ready to read. Have you had in the

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information from the political parties about the European

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elections? No. Nobody knocking at the door? No. Do think that is a bit

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weird? Definitely. Do you think it is a bit

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heard anything and there is a big election coming up? Yes! I didn't

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even know there was a big election coming up! Have you had any of the

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ration about the European elections? Everybody did the same tricks in the

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book. Really? Yeah! I've been away for 14 years. There's a lot to catch

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up! Tony Blair isn't here any more! Who has better leaflets? We have! We

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are a party! Free mascara! We have had people knocking at the door

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bothering us. It has been a bit intense. Pretty annoying, yeah. What

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if you got a tweet from a political party? Possibly. Or a Facebook...

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Have you had any contact from the political parties? Don't all come

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knocking at the door at once! It depends what they are saying.

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Picture this. David Cameron at the door? He would have to go right

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through the gate and over the wall! Have you seen any of the party

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election broadcast? Yes. Can you remember them? I was pretty

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impressed with the Labour one. I was pretty impressed. I know people have

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been criticising. So you have been two hustings at university. Do you

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think we need more of that around elections? Yes. I was surprised at

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how ruthless it was. Have we inspired you when you get home? Yes.

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Some have had contact but not a big majority by any means. Come on!

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People are waiting for a leaflet! And, conveniently, we have some

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politicians right here to ask them about it. We have Anthea McIntyre of

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the Conservatives and James Carver from UKIP. Can it really be true

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that the public haven't had any contact from any of you? I think

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that is surprisingly. We have sent an individual address to every

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elector. You haven't had as much it delivered experience getting out to

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the voters. The party has come a very long way in recent years. We

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have a record number of elections. 77% of the seats at this time.

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have a record number of elections. have the people to get out and I am

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very, very encouraged. And I will be running people to the polling

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station as a candidate. It is all very hands on deck and we are

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confident of a superb result. The Chancellor was saying that UKIP

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could wreck the economy. What does he mean by that? I think they will

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take votes he mean by that? I think they will

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cannot deliver on anything they promised. Only Conservatives can

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give promised. Only Conservatives can

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produce a sustainable growth in the economy. And a vote for UKIP is a

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protest that will just fly in the face of that. So if you want

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changing Europe and done in-out referendum, the only party to vote

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for is the Conservatives. -- and an. In last year's local elections,

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across-the-board on the first past the post elections, when the

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European Union was even raised, UKIP scored 24% of the vote. We are in a

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situation now with a Prime Minister in a difficult situation with his

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own party because of the motives of the British people. Much of our

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support comes from people who haven't voted in the previous

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elections so UKIP is invigorating the British public and not since the

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birth in the 1900 have people been so ready for a positive message.

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That's a big claim! Prime Minister is a big position. We have an

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improving economy, inward investment, growth is predicted to

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rise, we do not want to risk that with a protest vote with a party

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that cannot deliver anything. They like to make you think they can, but

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that cannot deliver anything. They give you a referendum is the Tories.

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The referendum will be in 2017, we are told, would you like it earlier

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than that? No, I would not. I want to see renegotiation and reform. I

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think we can make you are a lot better for the UK, and we have got

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think we can make you are a lot to try and do that and then we will

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have the referendum. I met a parrot the other day and the Conservatives

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sound just like that! I am sorry, the other day and the Conservatives

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Anthea... Let's have a sensible debate and not just insult! You are

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being insulting to the British people because

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being insulting to the British five years we should turn around and

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renegotiate. Have I interrupted you? You have, yet! Let us listen to

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what the vice president of the commission has said. He says there

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should be no renegotiation. Sun that is not true! Can I ask a question?

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should be no renegotiation. Sun that UKIP sense to MEPs to Brussels but

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they have resigned from the party, what has gone on? -- sent to MEPs.

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We are very confident we are going to do very well on May the 22nd and

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there is a precedent here. In 1999, in the first European elections, a

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former Labour MEP finished seventh. She stood as an independent Labour

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candidate and did not even save her deposit. This election is about

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political parties and the UKIP pound sign is on the ballot paper. If

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people want to say, we have had enough of Europe, they can vote

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UKIP. When I was doing the survey, the two politicians that people name

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are Nigel Farage... That is saying that Nigel Farage is doing a good

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job, he is going to reform. Tomorrow is not about that. The people who do

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the work, that turnout, endlessly voting on behalf of Britain, they

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are the Tories. UKIP vote against British interest. We are in a

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library. When did you last go to a library and what did you borrow?

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Probably Harry Potter! 1984, George Orwell. What does that say about you

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too? ! You can find out more about the candidates on the West Midlands

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pages on the BBC website. Thank you. A beautiful new library in the

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centre of Birmingham. I hope it means they can knock down the old

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library. There has been some breaking news while we have been on

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air. Public funding for the Police Federation is going to be stopped

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altogether from August. It currently gets ?190,000 per year from the

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taxpayer. The Home Secretary Theresa May said that it is going to stop.

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Now, every election campaign has its share of hiccups.

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The kind of moments that wake the spin doctors in the dead

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Who could forget Gordon Brown calling a Labour voter a bigot

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in 2010, little realising his microphone was switched on.

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Well, yesterday was a good day for fans of campaign blunders.

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Ed Miliband had already got into a spot of bother after telling

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an interviewer his family's weekly shop cost about ?70 or ?80,

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when the average family of four typically spends more than ?100.

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He then went on to give this interview to BBC Wiltshire.

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What do you make of Jean Grant? I beg your pardon? You think he has

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done a good job? I think lots of Labour representatives are doing a

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good job right across the country. With us now is George Pascoe-Watson,

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the former political editor of the With the benefit of hindsight, what

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should he have done? He should have prepared. If you prepare properly

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and you find yourself in that situation, it even if you had

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forgotten the name of the Labour leader, you would have remembered

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why you were in Swindon and you would have been able to say, it is a

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long day, you would excuse me if I had forgotten his name. What I do

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know is that he is fighting a strong campaign for as in Swindon on

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whatever the issue is. You have to do things that are genuine and not

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PR stunts which is where UKIP, of course, had their difficulties as

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well. Work out why I'm in Swindon, you do not need to be there for any

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other reason than to campaign. If you know that and prepare properly,

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you can be genuine and authentic. Ed Miliband has all these people around

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him, they travel with him, he has an entourage. Why did they not brief

:22:33.:22:38.

him? Where were they? It is local elections, it is a local radio

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programme, he should have been briefed by his people. It is a Tory

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controlled town, we are so number of seats behind, and the leader is

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called Jim. That is right, I am sure there is an inquest going on in the

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Labour machine about that kind of thing. You need to bear in mind that

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I have some sympathy with politicians. The election trail now

:23:04.:23:11.

is very long, and they are trying to pick up stuff. They are trying to

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focus on major international news which is happening. A microphone can

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be crossed in their face any time. Here is the difference perhaps. In

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the old days, he would have been in Swindon but on this, you were

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sitting in a studio in London and doing one local radio station after

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another. When you launch a book, that is what you do now. Maybe when

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you do that, and you are not going to the location, and you are not

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meeting anyone, you do not learn enough as you sure. And that is what

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I mean by being authentic and doing things that are true rather than

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presenting yourself as something you are not. I think what is really

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interesting about this, though, on the wider picture, is that this

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general election coming up next year is going to be the first digital

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one, where things happen at 1 million million mph. Cock ups are

:24:08.:24:19.

going to happen. Who is the guy, when they do make a clock up, is

:24:20.:24:26.

going to get out of it in humility, with a human touch, and sort of

:24:27.:24:31.

dance away from it? The Tories will take great heart from the fact that

:24:32.:24:36.

Ed Miliband looked a bit stuck. He was not the only one stuck in the

:24:37.:24:42.

wicket yesterday. UKIP decided to hold a multiracial carnival

:24:43.:24:47.

yesterday in Croydon. I thought you were going to say car crash! What

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could go wrong? Music and the people! Happiness! When did you

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first know this was a UKIP demonstration? When we first got

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here. Do you feel used? Slightly. I have heard they are not really

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racist, I do not know. Are they racist? I'm not sure. Successive

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governments have continued and still today, they fail to look after

:25:31.:25:34.

communities like Croydon. Croydon was once the place to be, the place

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to shop and it has now come a dump! Years standing in the Euro elections

:25:47.:25:50.

for the area. That is a novel way to win vote. Whereas you would not

:25:51.:25:55.

expect the Leader of the Opposition to get into that much trouble in a

:25:56.:26:00.

radio interview down the line to a local radio station, that had

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disaster written all over it before you got there, didn't it? It is back

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to planning and being authentic. PR stunts do not work because they are

:26:10.:26:15.

not authentic. You are only trying to be somebody you are not. That

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shines through and when things are not executed well planned route, it

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falls apart and the cracks appear. That is what happened here. For

:26:25.:26:31.

Nigel Farage, his whole plan has to be the anti-politician. Every time a

:26:32.:26:36.

clock up happens, he uses it to amplify the fact that he is a human

:26:37.:26:41.

being, things go wrong, and that strengthens the sense that he is

:26:42.:26:48.

just an odd guy. And die?! In terms of politics. -- an odd guy? ! A lot

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of this is about competence. It is about exaggerating things that

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people already have about them. Ed Miliband is photographed with a

:27:06.:27:09.

slightly gormless look as he eats a sandwich. It let's the persona

:27:10.:27:14.

slipped and reminds people about how they perceive you. The other point

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about Nigel Farage is that people like people like that. They like

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Charlie Kennedy, they like Boris. Do they want that person to become

:27:24.:27:29.

Prime Minister? Narrative begins to form about Ed Miliband.

:27:30.:27:32.

Prime Minister? Narrative begins to to clock ups? That is the really

:27:33.:27:38.

difficult thing if you are Labour. -- clock ups.

:27:39.:27:42.

Make sure he is a bit more nimble on his feet. There is a kind of Gotcha

:27:43.:27:55.

culture at the moment where we ask politicians about the price of

:27:56.:28:01.

bread. I would suggest that Winston Churchill did not know the price of

:28:02.:28:05.

bread but he saved us from the Nazis. The problem with Ed Miliband

:28:06.:28:09.

is that his whole plan has been about the cost of living and how it

:28:10.:28:13.

is hurting ordinary families. If you do not know what the cost of living

:28:14.:28:17.

is, how do you know what a crisis is? It reminds us that he is not

:28:18.:28:23.

like the rest of us. He does not do as much as David Cameron does but it

:28:24.:28:30.

does not help. The truth is, is it not, in their own different ways, Mr

:28:31.:28:34.

Cameron and Ed Miliband are out of touch. All politicians, because of

:28:35.:28:43.

where they are, they do not have time to go shopping and that is

:28:44.:28:47.

where authenticity comes in. It is about crafting a message. It is

:28:48.:28:54.

about saying, I am not going to pretend I push the trolley around in

:28:55.:28:58.

Morrisons. It is about saying who you are in having the guts and the

:28:59.:29:02.

balls to say it. A person like Boris is actually very good at disarming

:29:03.:29:07.

it. When Boris was asked, you said, I do not know, so what! We have got

:29:08.:29:15.

to go and move on but we all agree that Gordon Brown's blunder was one

:29:16.:29:21.

of the greatest blunders of modern times. It was a bad blunder at a bad

:29:22.:29:27.

time. It played to a narrative that people had already priced in. The

:29:28.:29:31.

question here is whether any of the gaffes yesterday will have a

:29:32.:29:34.

difference to tomorrow's boats. We shall see. Thank you. We talked

:29:35.:29:40.

about the campaigns run by the major parties, but what about the smaller

:29:41.:29:41.

parties? In the run-up to tomorrow's

:29:42.:29:43.

elections we've been speaking to parties that are standing eight or

:29:44.:29:46.

more candidates for the European Parliament, and Giles is

:29:47.:29:49.

on the green with two more. I am taking credit for the price of

:29:50.:29:58.

milk question. Let me introduce you to the public face of the Socialist

:29:59.:30:05.

equality party. Let me start with you. What does the National Liberal

:30:06.:30:11.

party stand for? It seems that it is a collection of people who believe

:30:12.:30:14.

in separatist movements around the world? Exactly. We are standing for

:30:15.:30:24.

self-determination for all nations. And at the same time, we are proud

:30:25.:30:30.

and I am proud to be British and to live in a British way of life here.

:30:31.:30:37.

We are working very hard here in the UK... Working hard to do what? What

:30:38.:30:44.

we do is work with communities to engage them in the political process

:30:45.:30:49.

here in the UK and in Europe as well, so that they can be effective

:30:50.:30:54.

and they can feel they are really part of this political process and

:30:55.:31:02.

part of society. The guy who tops your list for the elections, Graham

:31:03.:31:08.

Williamson, was once a founding member in a very large part of the

:31:09.:31:12.

National Front. You comfortable with that? Exactly. We are very proud to

:31:13.:31:17.

have him on the list. Because we have known these guys for years and

:31:18.:31:26.

years. He has tried to integrate all these communities into society. He

:31:27.:31:34.

has said many times it is a party of his history. 20, 30 years ago. And

:31:35.:31:40.

he said, I have made a mistake and it was when he was a young guy. So

:31:41.:31:45.

we have to be fair when we are judging on someone. I'm looking at

:31:46.:31:50.

your manifesto. One of the suggestions is that after three

:31:51.:31:55.

cases of alcohol-related anti-social disorder, you should go to prison.

:31:56.:32:00.

That doesn't sound very liberal. Exactly! So we don't say exactly you

:32:01.:32:05.

have to go to prison. But what we believe, this much has to be

:32:06.:32:10.

organised because we know it is affecting a large part of the

:32:11.:32:16.

community here in the UK. Many people would understand that. Many

:32:17.:32:22.

people come out and they are supporting this. Good luck with the

:32:23.:32:29.

elections. Let me introduce Chris. Socialist Equality Party. There are

:32:30.:32:32.

quite a lot of Socialists smaller parties. What is different about

:32:33.:32:38.

yours? Our policies are correct and we stand on the side of the working

:32:39.:32:43.

class and we have a perspective that defends the working class. Trotsky

:32:44.:32:50.

party is what I was looking for. We are a Trotsky party. And you would

:32:51.:32:55.

like to see the creation of the United Socialist States of Europe?

:32:56.:33:01.

Yes. Why would the British public want to vote for that and do they

:33:02.:33:05.

vote for that? They would certainly want to vote for that when you

:33:06.:33:08.

consider the savage attacks being made on jobs and social conditions

:33:09.:33:12.

at the behest of the European Union. And the drive to war in the Ukraine

:33:13.:33:18.

against Russia. We are advancing a perspective where the continent

:33:19.:33:21.

takes control of its own destiny and fights for something better. Isn't

:33:22.:33:25.

the problem with these elections that if the class you are talking

:33:26.:33:31.

about has shrunk, they therefore don't vote for this. So we would be

:33:32.:33:37.

talking about you in the same way we talk about UKIP and the Greens

:33:38.:33:41.

previously? The working class is as big as it ever was. Most people need

:33:42.:33:47.

to get by and they need an alternative. Our job is to convince

:33:48.:33:50.

them that socialism is that alternative. If all of the smaller

:33:51.:33:56.

Socialist parties got together would you not have a better chance of

:33:57.:33:59.

getting your argument across? Because you are not that far

:34:00.:34:03.

distant, are you? I think we are very far apart. Please tell me I am

:34:04.:34:13.

not first up when the winner comes! We will be talking to more

:34:14.:34:18.

candidates from the smaller parties. The health party and the Peace

:34:19.:34:23.

Party. Well, I for one can hardly wait!

:34:24.:34:26.

So, there are elections of various kinds

:34:27.:34:28.

across the country tomorrow, and Northern Ireland is no exception.

:34:29.:34:31.

Voters there will go to the polls to choose three MEPs

:34:32.:34:34.

Unionists and nationalists have different views on EU membership

:34:35.:34:38.

and migration, but the legacy of The Troubles and the arrest

:34:39.:34:41.

of one of Northern Ireland's most high-profile politicians has also

:34:42.:34:44.

Here's our Northern Ireland political editor, Mark Davenport.

:34:45.:34:52.

If I was to secure an interview with David Axelrod or Lynton Crosby and

:34:53.:35:00.

ask them for their top tips for a party leader facing into an election

:35:01.:35:04.

campaign, I reckon neither strategists would recommend getting

:35:05.:35:09.

arrested. Definitely not getting arrested for questioning about the

:35:10.:35:13.

murder of a mother of ten. But then politics in Northern Ireland is

:35:14.:35:16.

radically different to politics anywhere else.

:35:17.:35:20.

radically different to politics When Gerry Adams was questioned

:35:21.:35:23.

about Jean McConville's murder, his party claimed it was an

:35:24.:35:26.

about Jean McConville's murder, his damage their election chances. But

:35:27.:35:30.

since the police released the Sinn Fein president without charge,

:35:31.:35:34.

Republicans have changed tack. One of the immediate effects was that it

:35:35.:35:38.

has galvanised the Sinn Fein party and the broader public family, so if

:35:39.:35:45.

people weren't fighting a good campaign, they are very focused.

:35:46.:35:55.

Miss Anderson is the bookies favourite. The SDLP lost a decade

:35:56.:36:04.

ago and chances are far slimmer. There is a gathering opportunity now

:36:05.:36:08.

to change fundamentally our politics here at home and elect a strong and

:36:09.:36:13.

decisive, effective voice into the European Parliament. The Unionist

:36:14.:36:18.

field is pretty packed. Candidates range from a new moderate, pro-UK

:36:19.:36:23.

party to more traditional unionists who view the election as a

:36:24.:36:29.

referendum on a power-sharing government at Stormont. This is the

:36:30.:36:32.

perfect opportunity for people to pass their verdict on the

:36:33.:36:35.

revelations of the constant pandering to Sinn Fein and also on

:36:36.:36:40.

the dismal performance of Stormont. People want to have a stable

:36:41.:36:44.

Northern Ireland. They want it to be moving forward and they want a

:36:45.:36:49.

party, the only party, that is capable of keeping Sinn Fein to what

:36:50.:36:52.

has pledged to do and that is what BD you people that party position

:36:53.:37:02.

will be. -- the day you pea -- the Democratic Unionist Party position.

:37:03.:37:10.

In the last election, the Ulster Unionists banded together with the

:37:11.:37:14.

Conservatives. That relationship has ended in divorce, with the

:37:15.:37:16.

Conservatives putting forward their own candidate. You are convinced you

:37:17.:37:21.

can get elected without the own candidate. You are convinced you

:37:22.:37:29.

central office? I think we can be very efficient and effective. UKIP

:37:30.:37:35.

already have one member at the Stormont Assembly. Others contesting

:37:36.:37:38.

these elections include the Greens and the cross community Alliance

:37:39.:37:42.

Party. Their candidate was subject to racist abuse after calling for

:37:43.:37:47.

the removal of flags and paramilitary symbols on the street.

:37:48.:37:54.

I represent everyone. I represent a new face of Northern Ireland in

:37:55.:37:57.

Europe and I will be the best ambassador for Northern Ireland, to

:37:58.:38:01.

show the diversity in Northern Ireland. Apart from picking three

:38:02.:38:05.

MEPs, Northern Ireland's voters will choose who they want to sit on 11

:38:06.:38:10.

new district councils. The newly elected councillors will spend their

:38:11.:38:14.

first few months deciding where their headquarters should be and

:38:15.:38:17.

which flag, if any, should flutter over their buildings. Given the

:38:18.:38:22.

recent history at Belfast City Hall, that is something that could prove

:38:23.:38:26.

far from straightforward. That was Mark Davenport from Belfast.

:38:27.:38:31.

Northern Ireland is a micro-political system all of its

:38:32.:38:34.

own. When you do general election polling, do you do Northern Ireland?

:38:35.:38:39.

We don't, because it doesn't have much impact on what happens in

:38:40.:38:45.

Westminster. So we do opinion polls for Northern Ireland on what happens

:38:46.:38:48.

in Northern Ireland. It is so different what happens -- from what

:38:49.:38:56.

happens in the rest of the country. We will make some automatic

:38:57.:39:00.

assumptions and put it into the mix. But at another close election, we

:39:01.:39:02.

might have another look. OK. Adam's still there with more

:39:03.:39:08.

candidates for the European Hi. We are up here on the terrace of

:39:09.:39:21.

the brand-new library. It is very peaceful. Let's ruin that! Anybody

:39:22.:39:25.

the brand-new library. It is very excited about the European

:39:26.:39:28.

elections? European elections?! A blinding response! Other candidates

:39:29.:39:34.

standing here in the West Midlands, we have Nina Gale of Labour, and

:39:35.:39:41.

Philip... Phil Benyon. And Will Duckworth of the Green Party. I went

:39:42.:39:46.

out speaking to people in Birmingham yesterday. They mentioned Nigel

:39:47.:39:50.

Farage and David Cameron but nobody mentioned Ed Miliband. I was with Ed

:39:51.:39:56.

Miliband on Monday in Walsall. 500 people there, a huge audience, and

:39:57.:40:00.

people I have spoken to on the doorstep, they resonate with what Ed

:40:01.:40:05.

is saying on the cost of living crisis and where we need to go, so,

:40:06.:40:10.

you know, I don't know who you were speaking to, but certainly on the

:40:11.:40:15.

doorstep, I get a really positive message about what Ed Miliband is

:40:16.:40:19.

saying and what we need to do to put this country back into work. The

:40:20.:40:23.

message that people are concerned about is jobs, jobs, jobs. That's

:40:24.:40:28.

what they want from Europe and a government. We are in a region where

:40:29.:40:32.

we have the third-highest unemployment, so we really must

:40:33.:40:36.

address this issue straightaway. And that is what Labour and MEPs in

:40:37.:40:42.

Parliament have been doing and it is what Labour will do when we are in

:40:43.:40:46.

government. Have you met anybody on the doorstep who can explain Ed

:40:47.:40:51.

Miliband's position on a referendum in Europe? I think most people are

:40:52.:40:56.

not that concerned about Europe. Unfortunately! I have to admit that.

:40:57.:41:01.

Most people are saying, what does it mean for us? Do we need a referendum

:41:02.:41:07.

now? Not everybody thinks we need a referendum. They are feeling more

:41:08.:41:11.

concerned about how they are feeling squeezed in living, how they are

:41:12.:41:15.

feeling in relation to their health services at the moment. But our

:41:16.:41:18.

position is quite clear on the referendum. That if there is a new

:41:19.:41:23.

transfer of powers, we will hold a referendum. But we are not reckless.

:41:24.:41:27.

We don't need to hold a referendum just because, like David Cameron, we

:41:28.:41:35.

weak, and he has promised a referendum when there is no need to

:41:36.:41:39.

have one at this time. Why have a referendum now? And today, we have

:41:40.:41:44.

heard from the CBI... We will leave that there. When people answer the

:41:45.:41:51.

door, do they say, hurray, it is the man of the party of in? People are

:41:52.:41:58.

surprisingly friendly on the doorsteps. Obviously you have people

:41:59.:42:02.

who will be voting for UKIP but most people where we are knocking on the

:42:03.:42:05.

doors, they are very worried about jobs, as Nina says, and they are

:42:06.:42:11.

very worried also about environmental issues. What we have

:42:12.:42:15.

been doing in the European Union, we have not only been pushing the

:42:16.:42:19.

environmental agenda forward at a pace the economy can stand, but we

:42:20.:42:24.

have also been addressing the employment problem, particularly

:42:25.:42:27.

youth unemployment. We in the Liberal Democrats are a positive,

:42:28.:42:32.

pro-European, internationalist party that is pro-business as well as

:42:33.:42:36.

being green, and I think nobody else can claim that. With the jobs issue,

:42:37.:42:41.

I have been working on issues around apprenticeships. I go around the

:42:42.:42:45.

region trying to persuade small businesses, medium-size businesses

:42:46.:42:49.

to start apprenticeship schemes and we are getting some success. This is

:42:50.:42:57.

why unemployment is down to 6.8%. If you do really badly in these

:42:58.:43:01.

elections, will you be on the phone the next day to Nick Clegg saying,

:43:02.:43:07.

you must sort this out? I personally won't be but others will.

:43:08.:43:10.

you must sort this out? I personally they will? We won't be making any

:43:11.:43:15.

changes before the 2015 elections. We have a long time before then. I

:43:16.:43:19.

think we will have a reasonably good election, better than most people

:43:20.:43:22.

think. Certainly on the doorsteps it election, better than most people

:43:23.:43:26.

is better than in the polls. We will see when we get the results on

:43:27.:43:32.

Sunday. Why is it that when you meet loads of Green MEPs from other

:43:33.:43:36.

countries, you don't meet many from Great Britain? It takes a while for

:43:37.:43:41.

the general population to realise this is a proportional

:43:42.:43:45.

representation system and we can get people in. We already have MEPs in

:43:46.:43:49.

the south-east of London. We have a real chance in the south-west, the

:43:50.:43:53.

East, the north-west regions as well as here and there is a real chance

:43:54.:43:57.

we are overtaking the Lib Dems in many of the opinion polls. There is

:43:58.:44:03.

a real Eurosceptic mood around and people are concerned with those top

:44:04.:44:06.

issues people ask about but you want to be more generous in benefits to

:44:07.:44:14.

migrants? At the moment if you are trying to live on jobseeker's

:44:15.:44:18.

allowance, it is practically. People have tried it and it is practically

:44:19.:44:24.

impossible. We are demonising the poor and the unhealthy in this

:44:25.:44:28.

country quite unfairly. The vast majority of people who come over do

:44:29.:44:32.

not come for benefits. They come to work. And they are a vital resource.

:44:33.:44:37.

We need them. We should not just tolerate them but respect and

:44:38.:44:40.

appreciate the things they bring to this country. A quick final

:44:41.:44:45.

question. We are in this beautiful new library. What is your favourite

:44:46.:44:49.

political book? My favourite political book is probably... 1984.

:44:50.:44:59.

What does that say! Not because what I like what it says but because The

:45:00.:45:09.

Prince is quite exciting. I was going to say that, too! I have seen

:45:10.:45:14.

that! The last book I borrowed from a library was War And Peace. Are you

:45:15.:45:23.

still reading it? Did you get to the end? Yes, I did. Enjoy your last day

:45:24.:45:29.

of campaigning and being on the terrace. You can get all the

:45:30.:45:32.

candidates for this part of the world on the BBC News website. Back

:45:33.:45:38.

to you, Andrew. Thank you for that. We will have a

:45:39.:45:41.

test later to see if they have read any of these books.

:45:42.:45:45.

We've talked on the show before about how long

:45:46.:45:47.

and complicated the ballot papers for these elections are.

:45:48.:45:53.

127 candidates representing 17 different parties.

:45:54.:45:54.

And you get another ballot paper for local elections and

:45:55.:45:57.

Anthony Reubens is the BBC's head of statistics and he's here to tell

:45:58.:46:17.

Do people pick names that will get them high up the ballot paper? Well,

:46:18.:46:28.

I have not heard of anyone changing their name but there was a

:46:29.:46:32.

I have not heard of anyone changing done by some academics of all the

:46:33.:46:38.

local elections from 1973, and they suggested anecdotally

:46:39.:46:41.

local elections from 1973, and they effect was so big that some parties

:46:42.:46:44.

were favouring candidates with names higher up the alphabet and were

:46:45.:46:48.

choosing candidates raised on their names being higher up than their

:46:49.:46:54.

opponents. There was one interesting example at the moment. There was a

:46:55.:47:11.

party running in the election Independence From Europe. I suppose

:47:12.:47:18.

it gets Independence From Europe. I suppose

:47:19.:47:25.

alphabetically by surname. In European elections it is

:47:26.:47:29.

alphabetically by surname. In party name. This is a trick done

:47:30.:47:30.

before by Alex party name. This is a trick done

:47:31.:47:31.

The S M P changed its name to party name. This is a trick done

:47:32.:47:47.

Salmond. -- SMP. This is what academics call low information

:47:48.:47:49.

elections as we were finding out from Birmingham earlier stop it is

:47:50.:47:54.

where people cannot be bothered to find out about the candidates of the

:47:55.:47:57.

system of voting, so in elections where you are allowed more than one

:47:58.:48:02.

vote, people often only take one vote anyway, and it is the

:48:03.:48:08.

candidates higher up in the alphabet you will get those votes. I think we

:48:09.:48:16.

can show a ballot paper on screen. There it is on screen right now. In

:48:17.:48:21.

the local elections, you are voting for an individual, but in the

:48:22.:48:26.

European election, the party have chosen the candidates, and you are

:48:27.:48:31.

voting for the party. The higher up the person is on the party list, the

:48:32.:48:41.

more likely you are to choose them. If you are an individual, it is salt

:48:42.:48:52.

's law. I think this is something we should all be feeling strongly

:48:53.:48:56.

about. Do you feel this cremated against? I do have a friend who is

:48:57.:49:02.

standing in local elections and he feels discriminated against. There

:49:03.:49:06.

is a consultation going on in Scotland on this subject, and I

:49:07.:49:09.

spoke to the electoral commission this morning and they are watching

:49:10.:49:13.

carefully the result of this! In Australia, in parts of Tasmania,

:49:14.:49:18.

they have a random system where they print many different ballot papers.

:49:19.:49:25.

The order bias is well known so when we ask you to choose from a list, we

:49:26.:49:31.

would randomise it because of the bias. We can see it systematically.

:49:32.:49:37.

It is real, it does exist. Order bias? Yes. Can you take account of

:49:38.:49:48.

this in the polling? To be honest, I am not sure. It is marginal and

:49:49.:49:53.

where you have two candidates in a local election and there are three

:49:54.:49:59.

candidates from one party, the ones that hour the top of the list are

:50:00.:50:02.

more likely get chosen because you know so little about them. Whether

:50:03.:50:09.

it gets you to switch from party to party, the trick that was played in

:50:10.:50:17.

1994 by the Literal Democrats, that has been outlawed. They changed the

:50:18.:50:26.

law. Yes. You learn things on these programmes. Wacky for being with

:50:27.:50:27.

us. -- thank you for being with us. So it's a long ballot paper

:50:28.:50:33.

and that's because there are plenty of smaller new parties in addition

:50:34.:50:37.

to the big established lot. Earlier Giles spoke to two

:50:38.:50:41.

of them out on college green in And he's still there with

:50:42.:50:44.

the final two of the campaign. Andrew, we thought we would keep it

:50:45.:50:58.

simple for this bit, keep it light and easy with a feeling of

:50:59.:51:05.

well-being. We have the He's Party. John Morris, the Peace Party, I

:51:06.:51:11.

cannot think of any other parties that for war, what is unique?

:51:12.:51:19.

Unfortunately, all the other parties we have found have tucked away in

:51:20.:51:25.

their manifestoes that we must defend ourselves in some way, and

:51:26.:51:32.

that means bombs, weapons, aircraft. Does it mean scrapping the Ministry

:51:33.:51:36.

of Defence, that sort of thing? Absolutely, eventually. It will

:51:37.:51:40.

obviously take a long time because we have to convince people and

:51:41.:51:46.

convert people to work nonviolently together. You see the agency for all

:51:47.:51:53.

of this as the EU. You think they are the engine for promotion of

:51:54.:52:07.

peace rest are yes. --? Yes. It was set up for peaceful reasons and

:52:08.:52:10.

largely, it has done that for 60 years. You have probably seen the

:52:11.:52:16.

small party called UKIP, polling around 30% in the polls. It does not

:52:17.:52:21.

look like the electorate is ready for the EU as party for peace. Are

:52:22.:52:27.

they mistaken? They are missing something very important. Even

:52:28.:52:32.

Winston Churchill was for creating a political union for Europe and that

:52:33.:52:39.

is what I hope we can see as a step towards world peace. In all

:52:40.:52:45.

sincerity, lots of people might be thinking, what a nice worldview, but

:52:46.:52:49.

you know that you are not going to get masses of vote, why do you do

:52:50.:52:55.

it? I could not possibly vote for anybody else and I know there are

:52:56.:52:58.

lots of other people out there ringing the same. There were many

:52:59.:53:00.

people that do not ringing the same. There were many

:53:01.:53:03.

maybe there is a new option. Thank you. We know something about the

:53:04.:53:14.

National Health Action Party. You do what you say on the tin, what are

:53:15.:53:20.

you all about? We are funded by doctors, health workers and ordinary

:53:21.:53:26.

people. We are concerned about what is happening to the NHS, the

:53:27.:53:34.

top-down reorganisation. If we do not pay for it, if it is free at the

:53:35.:53:39.

point of delivery, the state is paying, is it privatisation or have

:53:40.:53:45.

we missed something? The definition of privatisation is when public

:53:46.:53:49.

services are handed over to private companies for profit. It is the

:53:50.:53:54.

World Health Organisation's definition. You are standing at the

:53:55.:54:02.

party. Labour have said they will repeal the act, should you vote for

:54:03.:54:09.

them? Labour have said they would not get rid of the privatisation

:54:10.:54:12.

that has happened and has not rejected the idea of a market within

:54:13.:54:18.

the NHS. They have not talked about PFI which is sapping billions out of

:54:19.:54:23.

hospitals. There is a long way to go before we can trust

:54:24.:54:29.

hospitals. There is a long way to go to the rescue of the NHS. We had the

:54:30.:54:32.

National Liberal Party, they are all to be found on the ballot papers, it

:54:33.:54:35.

is up to you to decide. Our guest of the day here Ben Page

:54:36.:54:40.

knows a thing or two And when it comes to elections he'll

:54:41.:54:44.

have a stab at predicting how Occasionally,

:54:45.:54:50.

he might even get it right. But in general he prefers to talk

:54:51.:54:53.

about trends rather than coming off the fence and telling us

:54:54.:54:56.

exactly what's going to happen. For that we've decided to turn to

:54:57.:55:00.

one of civilisation's oldest scholarly

:55:01.:55:02.

traditions ? yes, it's astrology. And to gaze into the political stars

:55:03.:55:04.

we're joined by Debbie Frank. Welcome to the programme. So, what

:55:05.:55:15.

do the stars foretell for Mr Cameron? He is a very slick and

:55:16.:55:20.

charming person, and he has that going for him but he is in a bit of

:55:21.:55:24.

a kick at the moment, under pressure. That comes from Nigel, the

:55:25.:55:30.

polar opposite to him, he is an Aries. His job is to shake

:55:31.:55:35.

everything up which he will continue to do until the next election in

:55:36.:55:41.

2015. Nigel is somebody who is outspoken, individual, and every

:55:42.:55:52.

settlement that happens with him is a positive thing. What about Ed

:55:53.:55:58.

Miliband? He is. He has Neptune on his Mars. He is in a state of

:55:59.:56:06.

bewilderment. It sounds painful! I advised him to do another

:56:07.:56:10.

supermarket shop because he is losing the plot. I think he might be

:56:11.:56:13.

happy about what is going on in the European election, temporarily, but

:56:14.:56:19.

his long-term stars show that he is losing grip a little bit and needs

:56:20.:56:23.

to stay focused. Another Capricorn, Nick Clegg. He looks like he's going

:56:24.:56:30.

to be a little with the result. It is interesting when you look at his

:56:31.:56:36.

chart. He is very connected with David Cameron and he wishes he was

:56:37.:56:41.

David Cameron. His chart is about having a strong wife, and his

:56:42.:56:45.

political life might change considerably. What about the leader

:56:46.:56:54.

of the Green Party? She is an Aquarius. She is of the people, and

:56:55.:57:06.

humanitarian. She is under pressure at the moment. Nigel is stealing her

:57:07.:57:10.

fire a little bit, but she is definitely the right person for the

:57:11.:57:15.

job. Natalie is doing what she was born to do, a great leader for the

:57:16.:57:20.

Green Party. On the European elections, who is going to come

:57:21.:57:26.

first? Nigel is going to have a big swing up here. He is totally front

:57:27.:57:29.

of House, basically. swing up here. He is totally front

:57:30.:57:35.

despite his little mishap, he swing up here. He is totally front

:57:36.:57:39.

going to be pretty happy. David Cameron is going

:57:40.:57:41.

going to be pretty happy. David and then he is going to come right

:57:42.:57:47.

back up in July. There you go, no caveats. What you say to that? The

:57:48.:57:50.

statistics tell caveats. What you say to that? The

:57:51.:57:52.

to call! That is caveats. What you say to that? The

:57:53.:57:56.

is boring but sometimes they are. caveats. What you say to that? The

:57:57.:58:03.

There is something called caveats. What you say to that? The

:58:04.:58:09.

all test. -- football. There was a 90% accuracy between the colour of

:58:10.:58:14.

the winners of the FA Cup and who actually wins. 95% of the time, it

:58:15.:58:18.

has been right since been Second has been right since been Second

:58:19.:58:23.

World War. It is my birthday today, what do the stars say about me?

:58:24.:58:28.

World War. It is my birthday today, are a tourist. -- Taures. It is all

:58:29.:58:44.

lovely. That is it for today, thank you to all our guests.

:58:45.:58:47.

The One O'clock News is starting over on BBC One now.

:58:48.:58:50.

Jo will be back here at noon tomorrow, election day,

:58:51.:58:53.

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