21/05/2014 Daily Politics


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Afternoon, folks, welcome to the Daily Politics.


It's the final day of campaigning ahead of European


The leaders are all still out and about, trying to pick up


last-minute votes in what promises to be one of the most significant


It wouldn't be an election without a few cock-ups,


I'm live at the new library in Birmingham to find out how voters


feel about the candidates in the European elections with less than 24


hours to go. We'll talk about what not to do


when you're trying to get elected. And with the polls all over


the place - well, kind of - we turn the stars to get the real analysis


our party political astrologer. And with us


for this elections extravaganza is the pollster's pollster, a man who


always checks his horoscope - He's conducted more surveys


than you've had hot dinners. He's probably even run a poll


about hot dinners. What was the outcome? People like


them! That cost us ?10,000! So,


the party leaders are having a busy Ed Miliband has embarked


on a US-style ten-stop tour of the country, each stop designed to


highlight a different Labour policy. buy some red roses for his wife


Justine and promote his pledge to He'll be hoping to move on from


several gaffes during interviews yesterday, including getting into


a muddle over how much his flesh yesterday, including getting into


a muddle over how much his And the Dave and Boris show has hit


the road, pressing the flesh The Prime Minister didn't buy


anything for SamCam but he bought Of course, Newark's the scene for


a crucial by-election on the 5th of June, and the Tories are throwing


the kitchen sink, which includes their biggest stars, like Boris,


at the campaign to try to stop And Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg have


been out on the airwaves, too. Of course, the BBC's going to be


bringing you coverage of the local elections tomorrow night


and then again on Friday afternoon. Then overnight on Sunday,


we'll have those all-important And, as usual, Jeremy Vine has blown


the Beeb's annual graphics budget. Here he is to explain what's up


for grabs. The local elections will cover 36


metropolitan boroughs. Let's look at the map. Most of them held by


Labour. 19 unitary authorities and the 32 boroughs of London and you


can see lots of places where people are not voting. If we have a look at


the result last year you will see what happened and why it was quite


stunning. This is projected national share as if the local elections had


been The reason for this is the emergence


of UKIP at 23% and the first time they have been on this craft. To


give it some context, we can go back to 2007 and look at the local


election results. 2007, Conservatives doing well. Labour in


power. The governing party, as always, getting punished. Gordon


Brown really struggling. 2010 is the year to focus on. These power seats


that were up last week. What you see is almost a difficulty for Labour of


really showing the Conservatives a clean pair of heels. And this is


quite an unusual pattern, with all three parties here looking quite


suppressed. Surely that is the effect of UKIP coming in and making


such an impact. There are also elections to the European


such an impact. There are also and here is the battle ground. 500


million people in it! If we look at the UK last time, 12 regions with 73


MEPs to be sent the UK last time, 12 regions with 73


only one coloured read last time. the UK last time, 12 regions with 73


But we can break it down in a slightly simple manner.


But we can break it down in a UKIP purple where they are strongest


and some Lib Dem orange as well. But clearly blue tells the story. The


Conservatives, the overall winners. Half as many for UKIP and Labour.


Conservatives, the overall winners. The Lib Dems on 11. They


Conservatives, the overall winners. night. And two for the Greens. That


was the result last time. What will happen this time? Well, look at the


polls and what they say about voting intentions in European elections.


You see an extraordinary intentions in European elections.


UKIP. This time last intentions in European elections.


in first place when it intentions in European elections.


people will vote in a European intentions in European elections.


and Labour powers through. The Lib Dems really struggling and the


Conservatives a bit more robust than expected. But here we are at the


end. And this is what we will be watching during this election. Who


will take first? Could UKIP really put Labour into second?


So that is what 21st century graphics look like! I have only seen


hours! Ben, the polls are all over the place but they are not


consistent. One thing they seem to be getting consistent is that UKIP


is the first in the European polls? In most of them and there is one out


today where people have them level pegging. But certainly UKIP are


doing much better than last time. They were second last time and if


they are second this time it will be by a very narrow margin. One thing


we have to remember is that all polls have a margin of error


attached to them. The average poll has at least a 3-point error rate.


So it is getting almost too close to call between Labour and UKIP, but it


will all be about the machine on the ground and whether you can get your


voters out. And the postal vote? Yes, and Nigel Farage is hoping that


will have Been cast before some of the cock ups of the last day or two.


We have always known that Labour voters are a bit less likely,


traditionally, to get out. They don't get out to the polling


station. We will know in a little while. Is possible UKIP, Labour and


the Tories could be quite close together? That the spread between


the three will not be huge absolutely. Conservatives probably


in third place but it is absolutely neck and neck between Labour and


UKIP and anything could happen, to be quite honest. And pollsters have


been asking how you would vote in the European elections and then the


general or even the local tomorrow. What do the local... What do the


polls tell us about the local elections? To be honest, there


haven't been a great deal of polls about those because there are so


many different local circumstances. Labour did pretty well last time. So


we should see Labour, if they are going to do well at a general


election, you would want to see them holding on. Trafford is


interesting. Can Labour in a northern city take Trafford from the


Conservatives crept -- Conservatives? But they could lose a


few councillors next time, or on Thursday. Will the local election


results, when we get them late tomorrow night, will they tell us


more about the general election than the European election results? To be


honest, because they are voting at the same time, they will tell us


more about the European elections because this is the turnout and in


general elections it is so much higher. One word of caution, these


almost have no correlation with what happened that General elections.


Tony Blair got beaten all over the shop by the Conservatives but then


won handsomely. Who will come first in the European elections? UKIP but


only probably. And it could change. There you go! He is hedging his


bets. And I am right to do so! Now, on yesterday's show we were


in Milton Keynes talking Today we've sent Adam to Britain's


second biggest city He's there talking to people


about tomorrow's European elections and he's visiting


the city's brand new library. Hello, good to see you. Welcome to


Birmingham and the brand-new library. Look at it glinting there


in the beautiful summer sunshine. It opened last September and I am told


it has 800,000 books and even a slightly smaller EU section which


was empty today, apart from the Daily Politics producers, who were


swatting up for this item! Out there is the West Midlands, with something


like four and a bit million voters for the European elections. They


will be sending seven MEPs to Strasbourg and Brussels as a result


of this vote but how hard are the party is working to try to win


voters over? If only there were a tried and tested way to work it out.


We have brought our famous soapbox and voting box to the famous


bullring. The question, have you had any contact with the parties? What


kind have you had? The Conservatives. It was just the


leaflet. What did you think? I thought it was quite good. What


about the others? What did that make you think? It made me think, where


are they? Can you remember anything that was said? I will lead them this


evening because I have them ready to read. Have you had in the


information from the political parties about the European


elections? No. Nobody knocking at the door? No. Do think that is a bit


weird? Definitely. Do you think it is a bit


heard anything and there is a big election coming up? Yes! I didn't


even know there was a big election coming up! Have you had any of the


ration about the European elections? Everybody did the same tricks in the


book. Really? Yeah! I've been away for 14 years. There's a lot to catch


up! Tony Blair isn't here any more! Who has better leaflets? We have! We


are a party! Free mascara! We have had people knocking at the door


bothering us. It has been a bit intense. Pretty annoying, yeah. What


if you got a tweet from a political party? Possibly. Or a Facebook...


Have you had any contact from the political parties? Don't all come


knocking at the door at once! It depends what they are saying.


Picture this. David Cameron at the door? He would have to go right


through the gate and over the wall! Have you seen any of the party


election broadcast? Yes. Can you remember them? I was pretty


impressed with the Labour one. I was pretty impressed. I know people have


been criticising. So you have been two hustings at university. Do you


think we need more of that around elections? Yes. I was surprised at


how ruthless it was. Have we inspired you when you get home? Yes.


Some have had contact but not a big majority by any means. Come on!


People are waiting for a leaflet! And, conveniently, we have some


politicians right here to ask them about it. We have Anthea McIntyre of


the Conservatives and James Carver from UKIP. Can it really be true


that the public haven't had any contact from any of you? I think


that is surprisingly. We have sent an individual address to every


elector. You haven't had as much it delivered experience getting out to


the voters. The party has come a very long way in recent years. We


have a record number of elections. 77% of the seats at this time.


have a record number of elections. have the people to get out and I am


very, very encouraged. And I will be running people to the polling


station as a candidate. It is all very hands on deck and we are


confident of a superb result. The Chancellor was saying that UKIP


could wreck the economy. What does he mean by that? I think they will


take votes he mean by that? I think they will


cannot deliver on anything they promised. Only Conservatives can


give promised. Only Conservatives can


produce a sustainable growth in the economy. And a vote for UKIP is a


protest that will just fly in the face of that. So if you want


changing Europe and done in-out referendum, the only party to vote


for is the Conservatives. -- and an. In last year's local elections,


across-the-board on the first past the post elections, when the


European Union was even raised, UKIP scored 24% of the vote. We are in a


situation now with a Prime Minister in a difficult situation with his


own party because of the motives of the British people. Much of our


support comes from people who haven't voted in the previous


elections so UKIP is invigorating the British public and not since the


birth in the 1900 have people been so ready for a positive message.


That's a big claim! Prime Minister is a big position. We have an


improving economy, inward investment, growth is predicted to


rise, we do not want to risk that with a protest vote with a party


that cannot deliver anything. They like to make you think they can, but


that cannot deliver anything. They give you a referendum is the Tories.


The referendum will be in 2017, we are told, would you like it earlier


than that? No, I would not. I want to see renegotiation and reform. I


think we can make you are a lot better for the UK, and we have got


think we can make you are a lot to try and do that and then we will


have the referendum. I met a parrot the other day and the Conservatives


sound just like that! I am sorry, the other day and the Conservatives


Anthea... Let's have a sensible debate and not just insult! You are


being insulting to the British people because


being insulting to the British five years we should turn around and


renegotiate. Have I interrupted you? You have, yet! Let us listen to


what the vice president of the commission has said. He says there


should be no renegotiation. Sun that is not true! Can I ask a question?


should be no renegotiation. Sun that UKIP sense to MEPs to Brussels but


they have resigned from the party, what has gone on? -- sent to MEPs.


We are very confident we are going to do very well on May the 22nd and


there is a precedent here. In 1999, in the first European elections, a


former Labour MEP finished seventh. She stood as an independent Labour


candidate and did not even save her deposit. This election is about


political parties and the UKIP pound sign is on the ballot paper. If


people want to say, we have had enough of Europe, they can vote


UKIP. When I was doing the survey, the two politicians that people name


are Nigel Farage... That is saying that Nigel Farage is doing a good


job, he is going to reform. Tomorrow is not about that. The people who do


the work, that turnout, endlessly voting on behalf of Britain, they


are the Tories. UKIP vote against British interest. We are in a


library. When did you last go to a library and what did you borrow?


Probably Harry Potter! 1984, George Orwell. What does that say about you


too? ! You can find out more about the candidates on the West Midlands


pages on the BBC website. Thank you. A beautiful new library in the


centre of Birmingham. I hope it means they can knock down the old


library. There has been some breaking news while we have been on


air. Public funding for the Police Federation is going to be stopped


altogether from August. It currently gets ?190,000 per year from the


taxpayer. The Home Secretary Theresa May said that it is going to stop.


Now, every election campaign has its share of hiccups.


The kind of moments that wake the spin doctors in the dead


Who could forget Gordon Brown calling a Labour voter a bigot


in 2010, little realising his microphone was switched on.


Well, yesterday was a good day for fans of campaign blunders.


Ed Miliband had already got into a spot of bother after telling


an interviewer his family's weekly shop cost about ?70 or ?80,


when the average family of four typically spends more than ?100.


He then went on to give this interview to BBC Wiltshire.


What do you make of Jean Grant? I beg your pardon? You think he has


done a good job? I think lots of Labour representatives are doing a


good job right across the country. With us now is George Pascoe-Watson,


the former political editor of the With the benefit of hindsight, what


should he have done? He should have prepared. If you prepare properly


and you find yourself in that situation, it even if you had


forgotten the name of the Labour leader, you would have remembered


why you were in Swindon and you would have been able to say, it is a


long day, you would excuse me if I had forgotten his name. What I do


know is that he is fighting a strong campaign for as in Swindon on


whatever the issue is. You have to do things that are genuine and not


PR stunts which is where UKIP, of course, had their difficulties as


well. Work out why I'm in Swindon, you do not need to be there for any


other reason than to campaign. If you know that and prepare properly,


you can be genuine and authentic. Ed Miliband has all these people around


him, they travel with him, he has an entourage. Why did they not brief


him? Where were they? It is local elections, it is a local radio


programme, he should have been briefed by his people. It is a Tory


controlled town, we are so number of seats behind, and the leader is


called Jim. That is right, I am sure there is an inquest going on in the


Labour machine about that kind of thing. You need to bear in mind that


I have some sympathy with politicians. The election trail now


is very long, and they are trying to pick up stuff. They are trying to


focus on major international news which is happening. A microphone can


be crossed in their face any time. Here is the difference perhaps. In


the old days, he would have been in Swindon but on this, you were


sitting in a studio in London and doing one local radio station after


another. When you launch a book, that is what you do now. Maybe when


you do that, and you are not going to the location, and you are not


meeting anyone, you do not learn enough as you sure. And that is what


I mean by being authentic and doing things that are true rather than


presenting yourself as something you are not. I think what is really


interesting about this, though, on the wider picture, is that this


general election coming up next year is going to be the first digital


one, where things happen at 1 million million mph. Cock ups are


going to happen. Who is the guy, when they do make a clock up, is


going to get out of it in humility, with a human touch, and sort of


dance away from it? The Tories will take great heart from the fact that


Ed Miliband looked a bit stuck. He was not the only one stuck in the


wicket yesterday. UKIP decided to hold a multiracial carnival


yesterday in Croydon. I thought you were going to say car crash! What


could go wrong? Music and the people! Happiness! When did you


first know this was a UKIP demonstration? When we first got


here. Do you feel used? Slightly. I have heard they are not really


racist, I do not know. Are they racist? I'm not sure. Successive


governments have continued and still today, they fail to look after


communities like Croydon. Croydon was once the place to be, the place


to shop and it has now come a dump! Years standing in the Euro elections


for the area. That is a novel way to win vote. Whereas you would not


expect the Leader of the Opposition to get into that much trouble in a


radio interview down the line to a local radio station, that had


disaster written all over it before you got there, didn't it? It is back


to planning and being authentic. PR stunts do not work because they are


not authentic. You are only trying to be somebody you are not. That


shines through and when things are not executed well planned route, it


falls apart and the cracks appear. That is what happened here. For


Nigel Farage, his whole plan has to be the anti-politician. Every time a


clock up happens, he uses it to amplify the fact that he is a human


being, things go wrong, and that strengthens the sense that he is


just an odd guy. And die?! In terms of politics. -- an odd guy? ! A lot


of this is about competence. It is about exaggerating things that


people already have about them. Ed Miliband is photographed with a


slightly gormless look as he eats a sandwich. It let's the persona


slipped and reminds people about how they perceive you. The other point


about Nigel Farage is that people like people like that. They like


Charlie Kennedy, they like Boris. Do they want that person to become


Prime Minister? Narrative begins to form about Ed Miliband.


Prime Minister? Narrative begins to to clock ups? That is the really


difficult thing if you are Labour. -- clock ups.


Make sure he is a bit more nimble on his feet. There is a kind of Gotcha


culture at the moment where we ask politicians about the price of


bread. I would suggest that Winston Churchill did not know the price of


bread but he saved us from the Nazis. The problem with Ed Miliband


is that his whole plan has been about the cost of living and how it


is hurting ordinary families. If you do not know what the cost of living


is, how do you know what a crisis is? It reminds us that he is not


like the rest of us. He does not do as much as David Cameron does but it


does not help. The truth is, is it not, in their own different ways, Mr


Cameron and Ed Miliband are out of touch. All politicians, because of


where they are, they do not have time to go shopping and that is


where authenticity comes in. It is about crafting a message. It is


about saying, I am not going to pretend I push the trolley around in


Morrisons. It is about saying who you are in having the guts and the


balls to say it. A person like Boris is actually very good at disarming


it. When Boris was asked, you said, I do not know, so what! We have got


to go and move on but we all agree that Gordon Brown's blunder was one


of the greatest blunders of modern times. It was a bad blunder at a bad


time. It played to a narrative that people had already priced in. The


question here is whether any of the gaffes yesterday will have a


difference to tomorrow's boats. We shall see. Thank you. We talked


about the campaigns run by the major parties, but what about the smaller


parties? In the run-up to tomorrow's


elections we've been speaking to parties that are standing eight or


more candidates for the European Parliament, and Giles is


on the green with two more. I am taking credit for the price of


milk question. Let me introduce you to the public face of the Socialist


equality party. Let me start with you. What does the National Liberal


party stand for? It seems that it is a collection of people who believe


in separatist movements around the world? Exactly. We are standing for


self-determination for all nations. And at the same time, we are proud


and I am proud to be British and to live in a British way of life here.


We are working very hard here in the UK... Working hard to do what? What


we do is work with communities to engage them in the political process


here in the UK and in Europe as well, so that they can be effective


and they can feel they are really part of this political process and


part of society. The guy who tops your list for the elections, Graham


Williamson, was once a founding member in a very large part of the


National Front. You comfortable with that? Exactly. We are very proud to


have him on the list. Because we have known these guys for years and


years. He has tried to integrate all these communities into society. He


has said many times it is a party of his history. 20, 30 years ago. And


he said, I have made a mistake and it was when he was a young guy. So


we have to be fair when we are judging on someone. I'm looking at


your manifesto. One of the suggestions is that after three


cases of alcohol-related anti-social disorder, you should go to prison.


That doesn't sound very liberal. Exactly! So we don't say exactly you


have to go to prison. But what we believe, this much has to be


organised because we know it is affecting a large part of the


community here in the UK. Many people would understand that. Many


people come out and they are supporting this. Good luck with the


elections. Let me introduce Chris. Socialist Equality Party. There are


quite a lot of Socialists smaller parties. What is different about


yours? Our policies are correct and we stand on the side of the working


class and we have a perspective that defends the working class. Trotsky


party is what I was looking for. We are a Trotsky party. And you would


like to see the creation of the United Socialist States of Europe?


Yes. Why would the British public want to vote for that and do they


vote for that? They would certainly want to vote for that when you


consider the savage attacks being made on jobs and social conditions


at the behest of the European Union. And the drive to war in the Ukraine


against Russia. We are advancing a perspective where the continent


takes control of its own destiny and fights for something better. Isn't


the problem with these elections that if the class you are talking


about has shrunk, they therefore don't vote for this. So we would be


talking about you in the same way we talk about UKIP and the Greens


previously? The working class is as big as it ever was. Most people need


to get by and they need an alternative. Our job is to convince


them that socialism is that alternative. If all of the smaller


Socialist parties got together would you not have a better chance of


getting your argument across? Because you are not that far


distant, are you? I think we are very far apart. Please tell me I am


not first up when the winner comes! We will be talking to more


candidates from the smaller parties. The health party and the Peace


Party. Well, I for one can hardly wait!


So, there are elections of various kinds


across the country tomorrow, and Northern Ireland is no exception.


Voters there will go to the polls to choose three MEPs


Unionists and nationalists have different views on EU membership


and migration, but the legacy of The Troubles and the arrest


of one of Northern Ireland's most high-profile politicians has also


Here's our Northern Ireland political editor, Mark Davenport.


If I was to secure an interview with David Axelrod or Lynton Crosby and


ask them for their top tips for a party leader facing into an election


campaign, I reckon neither strategists would recommend getting


arrested. Definitely not getting arrested for questioning about the


murder of a mother of ten. But then politics in Northern Ireland is


radically different to politics anywhere else.


radically different to politics When Gerry Adams was questioned


about Jean McConville's murder, his party claimed it was an


about Jean McConville's murder, his damage their election chances. But


since the police released the Sinn Fein president without charge,


Republicans have changed tack. One of the immediate effects was that it


has galvanised the Sinn Fein party and the broader public family, so if


people weren't fighting a good campaign, they are very focused.


Miss Anderson is the bookies favourite. The SDLP lost a decade


ago and chances are far slimmer. There is a gathering opportunity now


to change fundamentally our politics here at home and elect a strong and


decisive, effective voice into the European Parliament. The Unionist


field is pretty packed. Candidates range from a new moderate, pro-UK


party to more traditional unionists who view the election as a


referendum on a power-sharing government at Stormont. This is the


perfect opportunity for people to pass their verdict on the


revelations of the constant pandering to Sinn Fein and also on


the dismal performance of Stormont. People want to have a stable


Northern Ireland. They want it to be moving forward and they want a


party, the only party, that is capable of keeping Sinn Fein to what


has pledged to do and that is what BD you people that party position


will be. -- the day you pea -- the Democratic Unionist Party position.


In the last election, the Ulster Unionists banded together with the


Conservatives. That relationship has ended in divorce, with the


Conservatives putting forward their own candidate. You are convinced you


can get elected without the own candidate. You are convinced you


central office? I think we can be very efficient and effective. UKIP


already have one member at the Stormont Assembly. Others contesting


these elections include the Greens and the cross community Alliance


Party. Their candidate was subject to racist abuse after calling for


the removal of flags and paramilitary symbols on the street.


I represent everyone. I represent a new face of Northern Ireland in


Europe and I will be the best ambassador for Northern Ireland, to


show the diversity in Northern Ireland. Apart from picking three


MEPs, Northern Ireland's voters will choose who they want to sit on 11


new district councils. The newly elected councillors will spend their


first few months deciding where their headquarters should be and


which flag, if any, should flutter over their buildings. Given the


recent history at Belfast City Hall, that is something that could prove


far from straightforward. That was Mark Davenport from Belfast.


Northern Ireland is a micro-political system all of its


own. When you do general election polling, do you do Northern Ireland?


We don't, because it doesn't have much impact on what happens in


Westminster. So we do opinion polls for Northern Ireland on what happens


in Northern Ireland. It is so different what happens -- from what


happens in the rest of the country. We will make some automatic


assumptions and put it into the mix. But at another close election, we


might have another look. OK. Adam's still there with more


candidates for the European Hi. We are up here on the terrace of


the brand-new library. It is very peaceful. Let's ruin that! Anybody


the brand-new library. It is very excited about the European


elections? European elections?! A blinding response! Other candidates


standing here in the West Midlands, we have Nina Gale of Labour, and


Philip... Phil Benyon. And Will Duckworth of the Green Party. I went


out speaking to people in Birmingham yesterday. They mentioned Nigel


Farage and David Cameron but nobody mentioned Ed Miliband. I was with Ed


Miliband on Monday in Walsall. 500 people there, a huge audience, and


people I have spoken to on the doorstep, they resonate with what Ed


is saying on the cost of living crisis and where we need to go, so,


you know, I don't know who you were speaking to, but certainly on the


doorstep, I get a really positive message about what Ed Miliband is


saying and what we need to do to put this country back into work. The


message that people are concerned about is jobs, jobs, jobs. That's


what they want from Europe and a government. We are in a region where


we have the third-highest unemployment, so we really must


address this issue straightaway. And that is what Labour and MEPs in


Parliament have been doing and it is what Labour will do when we are in


government. Have you met anybody on the doorstep who can explain Ed


Miliband's position on a referendum in Europe? I think most people are


not that concerned about Europe. Unfortunately! I have to admit that.


Most people are saying, what does it mean for us? Do we need a referendum


now? Not everybody thinks we need a referendum. They are feeling more


concerned about how they are feeling squeezed in living, how they are


feeling in relation to their health services at the moment. But our


position is quite clear on the referendum. That if there is a new


transfer of powers, we will hold a referendum. But we are not reckless.


We don't need to hold a referendum just because, like David Cameron, we


weak, and he has promised a referendum when there is no need to


have one at this time. Why have a referendum now? And today, we have


heard from the CBI... We will leave that there. When people answer the


door, do they say, hurray, it is the man of the party of in? People are


surprisingly friendly on the doorsteps. Obviously you have people


who will be voting for UKIP but most people where we are knocking on the


doors, they are very worried about jobs, as Nina says, and they are


very worried also about environmental issues. What we have


been doing in the European Union, we have not only been pushing the


environmental agenda forward at a pace the economy can stand, but we


have also been addressing the employment problem, particularly


youth unemployment. We in the Liberal Democrats are a positive,


pro-European, internationalist party that is pro-business as well as


being green, and I think nobody else can claim that. With the jobs issue,


I have been working on issues around apprenticeships. I go around the


region trying to persuade small businesses, medium-size businesses


to start apprenticeship schemes and we are getting some success. This is


why unemployment is down to 6.8%. If you do really badly in these


elections, will you be on the phone the next day to Nick Clegg saying,


you must sort this out? I personally won't be but others will.


you must sort this out? I personally they will? We won't be making any


changes before the 2015 elections. We have a long time before then. I


think we will have a reasonably good election, better than most people


think. Certainly on the doorsteps it election, better than most people


is better than in the polls. We will see when we get the results on


Sunday. Why is it that when you meet loads of Green MEPs from other


countries, you don't meet many from Great Britain? It takes a while for


the general population to realise this is a proportional


representation system and we can get people in. We already have MEPs in


the south-east of London. We have a real chance in the south-west, the


East, the north-west regions as well as here and there is a real chance


we are overtaking the Lib Dems in many of the opinion polls. There is


a real Eurosceptic mood around and people are concerned with those top


issues people ask about but you want to be more generous in benefits to


migrants? At the moment if you are trying to live on jobseeker's


allowance, it is practically. People have tried it and it is practically


impossible. We are demonising the poor and the unhealthy in this


country quite unfairly. The vast majority of people who come over do


not come for benefits. They come to work. And they are a vital resource.


We need them. We should not just tolerate them but respect and


appreciate the things they bring to this country. A quick final


question. We are in this beautiful new library. What is your favourite


political book? My favourite political book is probably... 1984.


What does that say! Not because what I like what it says but because The


Prince is quite exciting. I was going to say that, too! I have seen


that! The last book I borrowed from a library was War And Peace. Are you


still reading it? Did you get to the end? Yes, I did. Enjoy your last day


of campaigning and being on the terrace. You can get all the


candidates for this part of the world on the BBC News website. Back


to you, Andrew. Thank you for that. We will have a


test later to see if they have read any of these books.


We've talked on the show before about how long


and complicated the ballot papers for these elections are.


127 candidates representing 17 different parties.


And you get another ballot paper for local elections and


Anthony Reubens is the BBC's head of statistics and he's here to tell


Do people pick names that will get them high up the ballot paper? Well,


I have not heard of anyone changing their name but there was a


I have not heard of anyone changing done by some academics of all the


local elections from 1973, and they suggested anecdotally


local elections from 1973, and they effect was so big that some parties


were favouring candidates with names higher up the alphabet and were


choosing candidates raised on their names being higher up than their


opponents. There was one interesting example at the moment. There was a


party running in the election Independence From Europe. I suppose


it gets Independence From Europe. I suppose


alphabetically by surname. In European elections it is


alphabetically by surname. In party name. This is a trick done


before by Alex party name. This is a trick done


The S M P changed its name to party name. This is a trick done


Salmond. -- SMP. This is what academics call low information


elections as we were finding out from Birmingham earlier stop it is


where people cannot be bothered to find out about the candidates of the


system of voting, so in elections where you are allowed more than one


vote, people often only take one vote anyway, and it is the


candidates higher up in the alphabet you will get those votes. I think we


can show a ballot paper on screen. There it is on screen right now. In


the local elections, you are voting for an individual, but in the


European election, the party have chosen the candidates, and you are


voting for the party. The higher up the person is on the party list, the


more likely you are to choose them. If you are an individual, it is salt


's law. I think this is something we should all be feeling strongly


about. Do you feel this cremated against? I do have a friend who is


standing in local elections and he feels discriminated against. There


is a consultation going on in Scotland on this subject, and I


spoke to the electoral commission this morning and they are watching


carefully the result of this! In Australia, in parts of Tasmania,


they have a random system where they print many different ballot papers.


The order bias is well known so when we ask you to choose from a list, we


would randomise it because of the bias. We can see it systematically.


It is real, it does exist. Order bias? Yes. Can you take account of


this in the polling? To be honest, I am not sure. It is marginal and


where you have two candidates in a local election and there are three


candidates from one party, the ones that hour the top of the list are


more likely get chosen because you know so little about them. Whether


it gets you to switch from party to party, the trick that was played in


1994 by the Literal Democrats, that has been outlawed. They changed the


law. Yes. You learn things on these programmes. Wacky for being with


us. -- thank you for being with us. So it's a long ballot paper


and that's because there are plenty of smaller new parties in addition


to the big established lot. Earlier Giles spoke to two


of them out on college green in And he's still there with


the final two of the campaign. Andrew, we thought we would keep it


simple for this bit, keep it light and easy with a feeling of


well-being. We have the He's Party. John Morris, the Peace Party, I


cannot think of any other parties that for war, what is unique?


Unfortunately, all the other parties we have found have tucked away in


their manifestoes that we must defend ourselves in some way, and


that means bombs, weapons, aircraft. Does it mean scrapping the Ministry


of Defence, that sort of thing? Absolutely, eventually. It will


obviously take a long time because we have to convince people and


convert people to work nonviolently together. You see the agency for all


of this as the EU. You think they are the engine for promotion of


peace rest are yes. --? Yes. It was set up for peaceful reasons and


largely, it has done that for 60 years. You have probably seen the


small party called UKIP, polling around 30% in the polls. It does not


look like the electorate is ready for the EU as party for peace. Are


they mistaken? They are missing something very important. Even


Winston Churchill was for creating a political union for Europe and that


is what I hope we can see as a step towards world peace. In all


sincerity, lots of people might be thinking, what a nice worldview, but


you know that you are not going to get masses of vote, why do you do


it? I could not possibly vote for anybody else and I know there are


lots of other people out there ringing the same. There were many


people that do not ringing the same. There were many


maybe there is a new option. Thank you. We know something about the


National Health Action Party. You do what you say on the tin, what are


you all about? We are funded by doctors, health workers and ordinary


people. We are concerned about what is happening to the NHS, the


top-down reorganisation. If we do not pay for it, if it is free at the


point of delivery, the state is paying, is it privatisation or have


we missed something? The definition of privatisation is when public


services are handed over to private companies for profit. It is the


World Health Organisation's definition. You are standing at the


party. Labour have said they will repeal the act, should you vote for


them? Labour have said they would not get rid of the privatisation


that has happened and has not rejected the idea of a market within


the NHS. They have not talked about PFI which is sapping billions out of


hospitals. There is a long way to go before we can trust


hospitals. There is a long way to go to the rescue of the NHS. We had the


National Liberal Party, they are all to be found on the ballot papers, it


is up to you to decide. Our guest of the day here Ben Page


knows a thing or two And when it comes to elections he'll


have a stab at predicting how Occasionally,


he might even get it right. But in general he prefers to talk


about trends rather than coming off the fence and telling us


exactly what's going to happen. For that we've decided to turn to


one of civilisation's oldest scholarly


traditions ? yes, it's astrology. And to gaze into the political stars


we're joined by Debbie Frank. Welcome to the programme. So, what


do the stars foretell for Mr Cameron? He is a very slick and


charming person, and he has that going for him but he is in a bit of


a kick at the moment, under pressure. That comes from Nigel, the


polar opposite to him, he is an Aries. His job is to shake


everything up which he will continue to do until the next election in


2015. Nigel is somebody who is outspoken, individual, and every


settlement that happens with him is a positive thing. What about Ed


Miliband? He is. He has Neptune on his Mars. He is in a state of


bewilderment. It sounds painful! I advised him to do another


supermarket shop because he is losing the plot. I think he might be


happy about what is going on in the European election, temporarily, but


his long-term stars show that he is losing grip a little bit and needs


to stay focused. Another Capricorn, Nick Clegg. He looks like he's going


to be a little with the result. It is interesting when you look at his


chart. He is very connected with David Cameron and he wishes he was


David Cameron. His chart is about having a strong wife, and his


political life might change considerably. What about the leader


of the Green Party? She is an Aquarius. She is of the people, and


humanitarian. She is under pressure at the moment. Nigel is stealing her


fire a little bit, but she is definitely the right person for the


job. Natalie is doing what she was born to do, a great leader for the


Green Party. On the European elections, who is going to come


first? Nigel is going to have a big swing up here. He is totally front


of House, basically. swing up here. He is totally front


despite his little mishap, he swing up here. He is totally front


going to be pretty happy. David Cameron is going


going to be pretty happy. David and then he is going to come right


back up in July. There you go, no caveats. What you say to that? The


statistics tell caveats. What you say to that? The


to call! That is caveats. What you say to that? The


is boring but sometimes they are. caveats. What you say to that? The


There is something called caveats. What you say to that? The


all test. -- football. There was a 90% accuracy between the colour of


the winners of the FA Cup and who actually wins. 95% of the time, it


has been right since been Second has been right since been Second


World War. It is my birthday today, what do the stars say about me?


World War. It is my birthday today, are a tourist. -- Taures. It is all


lovely. That is it for today, thank you to all our guests.


The One O'clock News is starting over on BBC One now.


Jo will be back here at noon tomorrow, election day,


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