02/06/2014 Daily Politics


02/06/2014

Jo Coburn with the latest news and debate from Westminster, including a look at Conservative plans to offer Scotland control of income tax and the forthcoming Newark by-election.


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but will any of them tickle the electorate's taste buds?

:00:36.:01:20.

He could be running the EU soon, in which case David Cameron won't be

:01:21.:01:31.

How accurate were you? I am very pleased that you mentioned that.

:01:32.:01:56.

Basically, our poll was not conducted on the eve of the

:01:57.:01:59.

election, it was conducted a week in advance. Subsequently we found that

:02:00.:02:08.

a fifth of those who said that they voted in the European elections said

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that they made up their mind in that last week before the election. So,

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an average error of 2.8%, we got the five parties in the right order.

:02:18.:02:23.

Actually, we were one of the first to predict that UKIP was going to

:02:24.:02:25.

come first in the European elections, which we are pleased

:02:26.:02:30.

with. But obviously, it is not an eve of the election poll, it was a

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snapshot point in time rather than a prediction. You say you were the

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first company to say that UKIP would top the poll, but you did

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overestimate the share of the vote that they would get, and you think

:02:43.:02:46.

the reason for that is that it was not done on the eve of the

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election? That's right. Everything narrowed a bit towards the election.

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Actually, you people that conducted their polling closer to the election

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were much more accurate. It was a point in time, rather than the

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predictive element. Looking at Labour and the Conservatives, they

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were much closer in the end, were you surprised by that, that they

:03:10.:03:15.

narrowed towards the end? Not necessarily. I think people were

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making up their minds until that point in time, and further out,

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people were potentially trying to be a little bit more, there were trying

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to protest in their vote, in the voting intentions polls, but when it

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came to it, they decided to vote for the main two parties. What do you

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think worthy influences in those last few days? Because we had been

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discussing the main issues for months beforehand... It was very

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difficult, there were a lot of difficult stories regarding UKIP,

:03:55.:04:01.

regarding the other parties. It is difficult to say what actually swung

:04:02.:04:05.

it. But as it was, it was a great result for UKIP. And we did predict

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them to come first. What about the Liberal Democrats, because they

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imploded? What do you think that says, one year out from the general

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election? It shows that it is going to be very, very difficult for them.

:04:21.:04:23.

We have done focus groups among people who voted Lib Dem in 2010,

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and they feel really very betrayed by the party. And I think the

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polling showed that just it is going to be very difficult, but actually,

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we need to take into consideration factors such as incumbents in, so,

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although it was a bad result, it is yet to be seen how bad it will be

:04:46.:04:51.

next year. There has been plenty of discussion about the leadership of

:04:52.:04:54.

Nick Clegg, so do you think he will stay? I think it is going to be

:04:55.:04:59.

difficult to oust him. Certainly, the failed coup last week showed

:05:00.:05:07.

that. But I think it is going to change as we come towards the

:05:08.:05:12.

election. That will focus minds. But in the European election, everything

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was focused on the Lib Dem is, rather than Labour. What about the

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state of Labour in the Conservatives and of the general election? And

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think it is fair to say that Labour would have liked to be much further

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ahead than they were. As everybody keeps saying, this general election

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is about momentum. We have got a year, it is going to be the longest

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campaign ever, and with Labour not having that momentum behind it in

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the European elections, it will be difficult for them going into party

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conference. Yesterday,

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the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown was on the telly and he was

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asked about the plot to get rid of Nick Clegg following the party's

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disastrous election performance. And he appeared to compare the

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Business Secretary, Vince Cable, to Was it a) Romeo b) Iago c)

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Richard III or d) Macbeth? And in a bit, Katharine will

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give us the correct answer. The Conservative Party are

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considering offering Scotland full control of income tax as part of a

:06:22.:06:23.

devolution sweetener if Scots choose to reject the offer of independence

:06:24.:06:27.

in September's referendum. It would mark a significant U-turn

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for the party, who have always resisted further

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devolution, including voting against the setting up

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of the Scottish Parliament in 1999. Last year, Ruth Davidson,

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the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, set up a commission

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chaired by Lord Strathclyde to look at the issue of further powers

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for the Scottish Parliament. It recommends that all income

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tax-raising powers should be transferred to Holyrood, giving the

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Scottish Parliament responsibility Writing in the Scotland on Sunday

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over the weekend, Ms Davidson described the current limited powers

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over tax were destabilising and akin Scotland currently has

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the power to vary the existing income tax bands by up to 3%, and

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this will increase to 10% from 2016 The Tories are the last of the main

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parties to outline their plans, with Labour planning devolution of three

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quarters of the 20p tax rate and control over housing benefit and

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more powers for Scotland's islands. Meanwhile the Lib Dems have proposed

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that Holyrood should raise 50% of the money it spends

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and have control over income, Joining me now from our Glasgow

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newsroom is our politIcal How significant is this? I think it

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is significant. The Conservatives started out opposing devolution

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altogether, and they have certainly not been at the forefront of pushing

:08:14.:08:17.

the boundaries of it over the last 15 years. This looks to be a bit

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different. The headline measure, the full devolution of income tax, is

:08:23.:08:25.

actually slightly more radical than what the Labour Party is proposing,

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if there is a no vote in September. Ruth Davidson, the leader of the

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Conservative Party in Scotland, was elected to that position talking of

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a line in the sand, that the powers which are coming to the Scottish

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Parliament regardless of the independence referendum vote, that

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these should be a line in the sand, and that there should not be further

:08:51.:08:54.

development of devolution. But now she is saying, and the proposals of

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this draft guide commission are covering this, and saying that these

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should be in the Conservatives' manifesto for 2015. How much impact

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do you think all of this discussion about tax-raising powers will have

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on undecided voters in Scotland? I think the parties advocating

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Scotland's continuing relationship with the rest of the UK, advocating

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a no vote in the referendum, by which I mean Labour, the

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Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, are all determined not to

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be seen as the parties of no change. And so, they have all been

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developing these proposals for further devolution if there is a no

:09:38.:09:43.

vote. And I think they have done that in part because most opinion

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polls suggest that whilst there is not yet a majority for

:09:48.:09:55.

independence, most polls do suggest that there is an appetite for the

:09:56.:10:02.

Scottish Parliament to take greater control over the domestic affairs of

:10:03.:10:07.

Scotland. And the Conservatives are saying, giving it full control over

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income tax would be about accountability, making the

:10:12.:10:16.

parliament accountable for raising much more of the money which it

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spends. With us now from Edinburgh is Marco

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Biagi from the SNP, and the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth

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Davidson, joins us from Glasgow. Starting with you, Marco Biagi, do

:10:26.:10:41.

you welcome this? We welcome that there is now a consensus which says

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Scotland needs more powers, it is good to see the Tories joining in

:10:46.:10:49.

with that. But the question now is the scale of those powers, and who

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can be trusted to deliver them. With a yes vote, we do not just get

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income tax, we get control over all things, most importantly our oil

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revenues, which continue to flow south, even under these proposals.

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But also there is the question of whether the Tories can be depended

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upon to follow through on these. You have already referred to was

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Davidson's line in the sand statement, and the fact that a few

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extra powers have been mooted. That was following a long process of

:11:23.:11:27.

liberation by the three no campaign parties to decide what they wanted

:11:28.:11:34.

to offer extra. Surely the Tories would not come out as publicly as

:11:35.:11:38.

this if they were not serious about it? Well, they have had form on

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doing that, in 1979, they did precisely that. But you have to ask,

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what has changed between the Calman commission reporting a few extra

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powers, stamp duty and landfill tax, and now, an independence

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referendum, that is what has changed, and these parties have an

:11:58.:12:01.

incentive to try to offer the minimum possible they can to try to

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win this. You have to ask, can you really trust the Tories as a party

:12:07.:12:10.

which has always been against devolution? The only option is with

:12:11.:12:16.

a yes vote. Adam Tomkins, respond to the fact that there is not much

:12:17.:12:20.

trust with the Conservatives, is this not just a straightforward

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bribe? Not at all. The Conservative Party now has an established record

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of delivering with devolution. The Conservative government delivered

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the Scotland act 2012, which allowed for the biggest fiscal transfer in

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British fiscal history. It is the Conservative government after 2015,

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should they win, who will deliver the proposals that the Strathclyde

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commission has published this morning. And those proposals are

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designed simultaneously to strengthen the union, the family of

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nations in this country, and also to give Scots autonomy over their

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domestic affairs, which they are reported to crave in opinion poll

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after opinion poll. Scots do not want independence, they want crater,

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enhanced devolution. There are those who say it would be easier to shift

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the blame if things go wrong if Scottish people control more of

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their tax-raising powers. It would be harder for an SNP government to

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blame Westminster? That's right. At the moment, the Scottish Parliament

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is responsible for a very large amount of money, ?35 billion, about

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60%, more than that, of identifiable public expenditure in Scotland, is

:13:38.:13:41.

already the responsibility Holyrood. But even under the

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Scotland Act 2012, the Scottish Government is not responsible for

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raising much of the money it spends. It is true, isn't it, most

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people in Scotland want more powers, they do not want full

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independence? The polls are closing in favour of yes at the moment. But

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all this conversation seems to be about tax, not so much about areas

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of response ability. Where are the promises over support for business,

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new powers to help improve state pension or to extend childcare and

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gain revenue from its? These are areas which are absent, as far as I

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can see, from the Conservative proposals, but things we would be

:14:26.:14:29.

able to do with a yes vote. But actually you have some tax-raising

:14:30.:14:30.

powers already, able to do with a yes vote. But

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actually you have which you choose not to use, and yet you want to

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continue with things like free prescription charges, neo- tuition

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fees, a certain amount of social care paid for. You would have to pay

:14:42.:14:45.

for these things, so would you be able to do it?

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moment, there have been substantial changes. The income tax powers were

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set up in 1997 to try to be almost impossible. If we wanted to move it

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up down, most of it would be swallowed up by an administration

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charge by HMRC. There is a danger that we go down the same path if

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similar canard is put up to try to persuade people that these are real

:15:17.:15:21.

powers when, in fact, the great majority of power, the areas of

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responsibility where any normal parliament would be able to deliver

:15:25.:15:29.

for its people, are continued to be denied to Scotland. Eight "yes" vote

:15:30.:15:33.

means we have power over all areas. But it is about how you run things

:15:34.:15:38.

economically as far as both people involved on both sides would argue.

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As Ruth Davidson is calling for, the way income tax has gone is not

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different from the offer of independence massively because you

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would have your own currency and wouldn't be setting your own

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interest rates. -- wouldn't have your own currency. There are three

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key areas where we wouldn't have control, even under Ruth Davidson's

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proposals. The idea that we are putting forward is of two sovereign

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nations in partnership so yes, where we agree on things and can get

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common interest, on things like currency or anything else, we have

:16:20.:16:22.

two sovereign nations working in partnership. We do take different

:16:23.:16:27.

approaches and have different priorities in some places, and we

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can do things differently. It's interesting how the SNP can't answer

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that question. Enhanced devolution is what the majority of Scots want.

:16:36.:16:40.

There is no great enthusiasm in Scotland for independence, there is

:16:41.:16:44.

no great enthusiasm for the constitutional status quo. The only

:16:45.:16:47.

party not to have recognised this is the SNP. Labour, Lib Dems and now

:16:48.:16:52.

the Scottish Conservatives have all but forward very ambitious proposals

:16:53.:16:58.

for home rule for Scotland within the UK and that is what the majority

:16:59.:17:02.

of Scots want and only eight no vote will deliver that. A yes vote will

:17:03.:17:05.

deliver not more devolution but the end of devolution. What about the

:17:06.:17:11.

point Marco Biagi makes that you are talking about tax-raising powers but

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what about the area of responsibility like pensions? The

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Strathclyde commission looked at pensions and we took the view, which

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is also the view of the vast majority of Scots who respond to

:17:23.:17:26.

things like the Scottish social attitudes survey, that there is no

:17:27.:17:30.

great appetite for the state pension to be different in Scotland from the

:17:31.:17:33.

rest of the UK, nor is there any great ambition among Scottish

:17:34.:17:38.

taxpayers that they alone should have to fund the state pension in

:17:39.:17:41.

Scotland. There is a very important part of the fabric of our union

:17:42.:17:45.

which is that you are able to retire anywhere in the UK irrespective of

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where you worked, irrespective of where you paid tax when you were a

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wage earner. To break that apart, I think, is in nobody's interests at

:17:54.:17:59.

all. Thank you both very much. Katharine, looking at the polls

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mentioned by Marco Biagi from the SNP, have they moved much? There is

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a lot of difference between different polling organisations in

:18:08.:18:13.

terms of yes and no votes. Certainly the no vote is ahead but by how

:18:14.:18:18.

much, it really depends. Who is going to impact the outcome are the

:18:19.:18:21.

people who say they don't know. They are the crucial ones we need to look

:18:22.:18:26.

at. In terms of that figure, how many people are we talking about?

:18:27.:18:31.

It's fairly substantial, isn't it? At least one in five people. So it

:18:32.:18:35.

could tip the vote one way or the other, bearing in mind how close the

:18:36.:18:41.

campaigns have become. That's right. But looking at options such as Devo

:18:42.:18:46.

Max, that has always been quite popular in Scotland. What you see

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now is with all the parties are lining more or less on increased

:18:51.:18:56.

devolution powers, a no vote is almost a default vote for increased

:18:57.:19:01.

devolution and powers. So the goalposts are changing somewhat. Do

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you think that's going to make it harder for the yes campaign to get

:19:06.:19:10.

any more in terms of votes from the underside? It's difficult to tell at

:19:11.:19:13.

this stage but I would expect that it is going to make the no vote more

:19:14.:19:17.

attractive because it has removed some of the risks involved.

:19:18.:19:22.

In the run-up to the European and local elections, the Daily Politics

:19:23.:19:24.

interviewed rather a lot of politicians from rather a lot of

:19:25.:19:30.

parties. One took exception to this on the eve of polling day. Isn't it

:19:31.:19:34.

a problem in these elections that the class you are talking about is

:19:35.:19:38.

actually shrunk in recent years and, actually, you and I know they don't

:19:39.:19:43.

vote for this. Otherwise we would be talking about you in the same way

:19:44.:19:46.

they have been talking about UKIP, the Greens and whatever. The working

:19:47.:19:50.

class hasn't shrunk. The working class is as big as it ever was, if

:19:51.:19:54.

not bigger. Most people are struggling to get by and need an

:19:55.:19:59.

alternative. Our job is to convince them that socialism is that

:20:00.:20:03.

alternative. If all the socialist parties got together, wouldn't you

:20:04.:20:07.

have a better chance of getting your arguments across? You aren't that

:20:08.:20:13.

far distant, are you? I think we're very different from those. We are a

:20:14.:20:17.

revolution is so sherry party. They are like a ginger group in the

:20:18.:20:23.

Labour Party. Well, we're joined now by Chris

:20:24.:20:27.

Marsden from the Socialist Equality Party. Tell us why you are upset by

:20:28.:20:33.

that interview. Well, I thought the crack at the end was uncalled for

:20:34.:20:38.

and demonstrated bias and it trivialised something which was

:20:39.:20:42.

quite serious. If you consider that at the moment, you have a situation

:20:43.:20:46.

in which the government, and senior figures in the government, are

:20:47.:20:51.

calling for Alan Rusbridger to be prosecuted for publishing material

:20:52.:20:56.

from Edward Snowden, and then it's suggested that socialists are in

:20:57.:20:58.

favour of persecution of journalists, that's obviously false.

:20:59.:21:03.

That was a joke. It was the end of the interview... There was a lot of

:21:04.:21:08.

schoolboy humour in the interview but the point about it is that I

:21:09.:21:16.

believe that your viewers deserve better. These are important

:21:17.:21:20.

elections, under conditions in which many, many millions of people are

:21:21.:21:24.

struggling to get by. You've got a 12% decline in people's living

:21:25.:21:29.

standards, austerities measures being imposed across Europe... How

:21:30.:21:31.

many other TV interviews did you have? This is the only TV interview

:21:32.:21:37.

I did. I did several other radio interviews. You could argue the

:21:38.:21:40.

programme does take it seriously and we do interview the smaller parties.

:21:41.:21:44.

I'm just trying to find out whether you really did take offence at that

:21:45.:21:47.

time or whether it was something that came afterwards that you

:21:48.:21:50.

thought was belittling the party in some way. I thought it was

:21:51.:21:56.

belittling immediately. The reference was from Citizen Smith.

:21:57.:22:01.

Against the wall and that sort of thing. The socialism we believe in

:22:02.:22:05.

is a democratic ego Terry and mass movement of the working class that

:22:06.:22:11.

is not about suppressing journalists. -- ego Terry. I

:22:12.:22:20.

disagree with being associated with it. It is one thing to interview

:22:21.:22:26.

small parties, it's another thing... What is the purpose of

:22:27.:22:31.

this? We are fighting to represent the working class under conditions

:22:32.:22:37.

in which no one seeking to represent the working class. Lots of parties

:22:38.:22:42.

claim to represent the working class. They may be wrong in your

:22:43.:22:46.

eyes but they do claim to represent the working class. None of the mass

:22:47.:22:50.

parties do, including the Labour Party. They are committed to

:22:51.:22:58.

austerity, two cuts, to militarism, like the conflict developing in

:22:59.:23:00.

Ukraine, which is extremely dangerous for the working class of

:23:01.:23:05.

Europe. They're pushing Russia into conditions in which they could

:23:06.:23:10.

develop into a war in Europe. You came 10th out of 15 parties and you

:23:11.:23:14.

were beaten by the Cama group pirates Party. Do you still think

:23:15.:23:21.

it's worth the effort? -- the Pirate Party. In different circumstances,

:23:22.:23:27.

we would have got a better vote. But we are not a Parliamentary party. We

:23:28.:23:32.

base ourselves on the class struggle. Our aim is to give a voice

:23:33.:23:36.

and perspective to the working class. Our party's growth is

:23:37.:23:41.

conditioned on the extent to which the working class moves into

:23:42.:23:43.

political struggle and if you don't think that's going to happen, you

:23:44.:23:47.

are blind because this situation cannot continue. We can't have the

:23:48.:23:51.

rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer out in an item

:23:52.:23:55.

without there being a serious shift in the political conscience of broad

:23:56.:24:02.

layers of working class. Thank you. Newark is a Nottinghamshire town

:24:03.:24:05.

used to being under siege. During the English Civil War, it was a

:24:06.:24:09.

royalist stronghold. The parliamentarians laid siege to it

:24:10.:24:11.

three times before it eventually surrendered. Over the last week,

:24:12.:24:16.

Parliament and the press have done it again. Why? The small matter of a

:24:17.:24:20.

rather important by-election this Thursday. Here's Adam.

:24:21.:24:28.

Newark's distinctly damp option market. They're having a by-election

:24:29.:24:32.

here because their previous MP, Patrick Mercer, offered himself to

:24:33.:24:36.

sail for some reporters posing as lobbyists. The mood here is a bit

:24:37.:24:40.

wet. Did you know the by-election was happening? No. I don't take any

:24:41.:24:45.

notice of them. They're was happening? No. I don't take any

:24:46.:24:50.

to me. Is there a sense of by-election fever? I haven't noticed

:24:51.:24:54.

it. But there has been a total deluge of politicians thought for

:24:55.:24:55.

the Lib Dems, David Watts. Michael deluge of politicians thought for

:24:56.:25:02.

Payne for Labour. UKIP's Roger Helmer, hoping to capitalise on his

:25:03.:25:06.

party's victory in the European elections. The Conservative Robert

:25:07.:25:11.

Jenrick is fighting back with a different VIP by his side almost

:25:12.:25:15.

every day. All in a constituency that is part countryside, part

:25:16.:25:20.

market town. It's steeped in history, especially the English

:25:21.:25:23.

Civil War. He is a piece of political trivia for you. William

:25:24.:25:27.

Gladstone was first elected as an MP in this constituency. He gave his

:25:28.:25:31.

victory speech from the balcony of that hotel, which gives me an idea

:25:32.:25:35.

for a Daily Politics by-election candidate quiz.

:25:36.:25:38.

Who is your favourite Prime Minister from history and why? William

:25:39.:25:42.

Gladstone was a fantastic MP for Newark. He didn't stay here very

:25:43.:25:46.

long after falling out with the juke of Newcastle who controlled

:25:47.:25:49.

elections in those days so it was easier to be elected in Newark in

:25:50.:25:53.

the 19th-century than today. I don't think I have a favourite Prime

:25:54.:25:56.

Minister because all of them have outlaws. I think my favourite

:25:57.:25:59.

politician was Paddy Ashdown, who should have been Prime Minister but

:26:00.:26:03.

never quite made it. It's got to be so Winston Churchill, hasn't it? He

:26:04.:26:09.

made a difference in the last century that probably no other Prime

:26:10.:26:11.

Minister has made. He saved our country. It might sound cliche but I

:26:12.:26:15.

think it's got to be Clement Attlee. After seeing a world that

:26:16.:26:19.

was fighting, he realised we had to rebuild the country. Proud of the

:26:20.:26:23.

NHS. I was at the Newark hospital today. You didn't say David

:26:24.:26:28.

Cameron. The prime and it has been very supportive. We've had him three

:26:29.:26:31.

times in the constituency and are grateful for that. We're not going

:26:32.:26:36.

to see Prime Minister Nigel Farage, are we? Well, I wouldn't be so

:26:37.:26:37.

sure. No Blair or brown? are we? Well, I wouldn't be so

:26:38.:26:50.

country. Aww, you all get a prize! Apparently the blues are in the lead

:26:51.:26:52.

up this bakery Apparently the blues are in the lead

:26:53.:26:57.

is, can the purples taste victory in a Westminster election for the first

:26:58.:27:00.

time ever? Delicious! There are 11 candidates

:27:01.:27:04.

standing in the Newark by-election. The BBC website has all the details.

:27:05.:27:07.

Chris Mason is in Newark, The BBC website has all the details.

:27:08.:27:13.

who your favourite Prime Minister was or how many buttons you might

:27:14.:27:17.

have eaten but over to you, Chris. -- bonds.

:27:18.:27:22.

have eaten but over to you, Chris. Good afternoon. We have been a bit

:27:23.:27:24.

more lucky with the weather than Adam was the other day. This square

:27:25.:27:29.

is absolutely groaning with politicians. If you popped in for

:27:30.:27:31.

your cabbages or tomatoes or duck politicians. If you popped in for

:27:32.:27:37.

eggs - ?1 9412 - the chances are, you are going to get badgered by

:27:38.:27:42.

rosette wearing politicians. The UKIP caravan turned up at about

:27:43.:27:47.

8:30am but there are more Conservative MPs here, I suspect,

:27:48.:27:51.

than there are Westminster. It has the feel of an election race that

:27:52.:27:56.

isn't in a safe seat, despite the Conservative majority last time

:27:57.:28:00.

being more than 16,000. Adam has his mood balls when he goes out and

:28:01.:28:05.

about testing public opinion well, your heart out, because I've got the

:28:06.:28:09.

Daily Politics whiteboard. I've been doing a word association game with

:28:10.:28:12.

voters in the square, asking what they think when I name the main

:28:13.:28:16.

parties will top Conservative - not interested in me or nothing. This is

:28:17.:28:20.

not remedy scientific. interested in me or nothing. This is

:28:21.:28:22.

different, useless, interested in me or nothing. This is

:28:23.:28:26.

dividing opinion - makes more interested in me or nothing. This is

:28:27.:28:30.

to me, reminds me of Australia's policy on immigration. Policies are

:28:31.:28:35.

a bit extreme. Nick Clegg has work to do. Clegg

:28:36.:28:36.

a bit extreme. Nick Clegg has work to do. is an unashamed barefaced

:28:37.:28:42.

liar, said one correspondent. Let's talk to Dan Churcher, the news

:28:43.:28:46.

correspondent at the Newark Advertiser.

:28:47.:28:48.

Let's talk to Dan Churcher, the news correspondent at the Newark We're

:28:49.:28:50.

awash with senior politicians at the moment. It is unprecedented. This

:28:51.:28:58.

by-election came about in strange circumstances but we have the Prime

:28:59.:29:00.

Minister four times, the Foreign Secretary three. Ed Miliband last

:29:01.:29:07.

week, as well. Things are starting to heat up. It's interesting. How do

:29:08.:29:12.

you read this by-election? You look at the numbers from last time - a

:29:13.:29:17.

whopping majority for the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are

:29:18.:29:19.

stacked up 10,000 or so Conservatives. The Lib Dems are

:29:20.:29:23.

may be plenty of those are up for grabs by the other parties if recent

:29:24.:29:25.

election performance is anything to go by. Is it as close as this market

:29:26.:29:31.

square suggests? You've got to ask yourself whether there is such a

:29:32.:29:35.

thing as a safe seat now, with UKIP. Straight off the back of their

:29:36.:29:39.

very successful result in the euros, I expect, or would

:29:40.:29:44.

anticipate, that the Conservative majority will be hit very hard by

:29:45.:29:50.

UKIP and as to whether they retain the seat, I believe they probably

:29:51.:29:53.

will but with a much reduced majority. Have you had Nigel Farage

:29:54.:30:01.

at the door of the newspaper? No, he was in town on Saturday but we

:30:02.:30:05.

haven't seen him in our offices. We have had the Prime Minister in and

:30:06.:30:08.

William Hague and Ed Miliband last week. How much enthusiasm is there

:30:09.:30:14.

from people in the constituency for the election? Firstly, it's a

:30:15.:30:19.

by-election. Historically, the turnout would be quite low. And

:30:20.:30:22.

people were at the polling stations a matter of days ago for the local

:30:23.:30:27.

and European elections. It will be interesting, I think, to see what

:30:28.:30:32.

the turnout is. Last time we had 71%, which is a high number, but I

:30:33.:30:38.

think there is a real sense here that these are exciting times. We

:30:39.:30:46.

never expected to be here and with the E major and soggy UKIP doing so

:30:47.:30:51.

well, people want to be involved in that, wants to be a part of it, in

:30:52.:30:55.

determining what happens with politics nationally. We're grateful

:30:56.:31:01.

to you. Dan Churcher from the Newark Advertiser, a busy man with an

:31:02.:31:05.

addition to butt out on Thursday. No doubt all of the analysis will be

:31:06.:31:09.

the week after. This square is groaning with politicians, rosette

:31:10.:31:14.

and journalists. I have to say, if I was coming out to my shopping and I

:31:15.:31:19.

Newark, I might give the square quite a wide berth.

:31:20.:31:29.

Just to pick up on a couple of those points, Katharine, the question of

:31:30.:31:37.

con is there such a thing as a safe seat? It would be a mammoth task to

:31:38.:31:42.

overturn that Conservative majority, yes. The one poll we have

:31:43.:31:46.

had so far does put the Conservatives ahead, however, he

:31:47.:31:50.

begins a massive swing to UKIP. In both Corby and easterly, the UKIP

:31:51.:31:56.

vote share has been underestimated by the polls. We have got another

:31:57.:32:01.

one coming out this afternoon. It is going to be really important to look

:32:02.:32:05.

at all of the factors, including turnout, but it could be a perfect

:32:06.:32:15.

storm for UKIP. They have got the wrangling in the European Commission

:32:16.:32:18.

at the moment, they have got Labour doing not as well as they should be

:32:19.:32:22.

doing as the party of protest, and essentially, it could be seen to be

:32:23.:32:28.

something of a free vote to express dissatisfaction with the Tories.

:32:29.:32:33.

What about intentions? Is there any polling to indicate anything

:32:34.:32:44.

regarding this by-election? There is. Last week we did some to show

:32:45.:32:48.

that actually, UKIP voters in the European elections do intend to vote

:32:49.:32:53.

in the same way in the general election. However, the point is,

:32:54.:32:57.

this is a by-election, and people will feel more free to vote for

:32:58.:33:03.

perhaps an alternative. Listening to Chris Mason, and that stream of

:33:04.:33:09.

senior Tory politicians who have come into Newark to try to

:33:10.:33:12.

consolidate that Tory majority, I mean, they are going to fight very

:33:13.:33:17.

hard to keep a sizeable majority, aren't they? Absolutely, and it is

:33:18.:33:22.

very much in their favour at the moment. However, there could be this

:33:23.:33:27.

major upset, because UKIP are really gaining through these by-elections

:33:28.:33:32.

since 2010. Is Labour featuring in this by-election, in terms of votes

:33:33.:33:41.

which could perhaps swing it? King at the poll over the weekend, they

:33:42.:33:44.

were just one point behind UKIP. However, taking into account all of

:33:45.:33:52.

the other fact is, I think UKIP would expect to be building this

:33:53.:33:56.

week. In case you have forgotten, there is just time before you go to

:33:57.:34:01.

give us the answer to and the question was, yesterday, Paddy

:34:02.:34:07.

Ashdown appeared to be likening the Business Secretary, Vince Cable, to

:34:08.:34:10.

a Shakespearean character, but who was it? I am embarrassed to say, I

:34:11.:34:20.

have got absolutely no idea. Have a guess, if we were thinking of

:34:21.:34:35.

alleged treachery? Iago? Well done. Thank you very much for coming onto

:34:36.:34:40.

the programme. So, what is in store for us this week. Tony Blair has

:34:41.:34:45.

the programme. So, what is in store this morning, outlining his vision

:34:46.:34:55.

for Europe. On Wednesday, MPs return to the Commons for the big event of

:34:56.:35:00.

the week, the Queen's Speech, when the Government announces its

:35:01.:35:03.

legislative programme for the coming year. On Thursday, voters go to the

:35:04.:35:08.

polls in the Newark by-election. Joining us now from College Green,

:35:09.:35:15.

James Lyons and Holly Watt. First of all, Holly Watt, how critical is

:35:16.:35:25.

this Newark by-election? This polls put the Conservatives ahead at the

:35:26.:35:29.

moment, and as we have seen, they are taking no chances. I think they

:35:30.:35:33.

are probably very keen to avoid losing too many votes to UKIP, which

:35:34.:35:38.

would terrify the Tories in marginal seats. Will this be seen as a

:35:39.:35:42.

weather vane ahead of the general election? I think it will be seen as

:35:43.:35:49.

a pointer, certainly, yes. What will be interesting to see is how close

:35:50.:35:53.

UKIP can run them, if they cannot actually take the seat. It looks

:35:54.:36:00.

like the Conservatives are on course to retain at least a little of that

:36:01.:36:06.

huge majority. And David Cameron is there today. But if UKIP are still

:36:07.:36:14.

holding up well after the European elections, which many Tories hope

:36:15.:36:19.

will be their high watermark, then there will be a lot of rattled

:36:20.:36:22.

backbenchers. What about the Queen's Speech, Holly, what is in it? Well,

:36:23.:36:27.

there is quite a wide range of things. Labour has been throwing

:36:28.:36:33.

this zombie Parliament criticism at the Conservatives and Lib Dems,

:36:34.:36:36.

insisting that they have still got lots of legislation coming through.

:36:37.:36:42.

They are looking at people being able to plan terrorism in Syria,

:36:43.:36:46.

pension reforms, all sorts of things, really. But they may well

:36:47.:36:52.

bring out something which surprises people, simply to prove that they

:36:53.:36:55.

are not a zombie Parliament at this point. Yes, and that has been the

:36:56.:37:00.

criticism, hasn't it, that they have run out of in terms of legislation,

:37:01.:37:07.

so do you think we will be proved wrong on that? They are certainly

:37:08.:37:13.

dredging the ideas box. We have heard talk of heroism bills,

:37:14.:37:17.

exempting good Samaritans from certain things, and ideas of

:37:18.:37:22.

fracking. But the point remains, when the MP 's comeback this week to

:37:23.:37:26.

Westminster for the Queen's Speech, they will just have an extra week's

:37:27.:37:30.

holiday, because they have got so little to do. I feel that what the

:37:31.:37:36.

coalition wants is a kind of steady as she goes Queen's Speech. They

:37:37.:37:42.

want the focus to be on the economy. Her Majesty I think will actually

:37:43.:37:47.

say the words long term economic plan. We have seen the King of Spain

:37:48.:37:48.

abdicating today, and I am sure if abdicating today, and I am sure if

:37:49.:37:55.

she is forced to say that on Wednesday,

:37:56.:38:05.

she is forced to say that on what do you think will now

:38:06.:38:05.

choreography for the next year, none of us are used to having this extra

:38:06.:38:11.

year, so how of us are used to having this extra

:38:12.:38:16.

feel at Westminster? I think both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems

:38:17.:38:20.

are hoping to have a managed separation, a conscious uncoupling,

:38:21.:38:25.

I suppose, but whether they manage that, who knows. There have been

:38:26.:38:30.

signs in recent weeks that that may not happen. The Lib

:38:31.:38:32.

signs in recent weeks that that may in a bit of a meltdown themselves.

:38:33.:38:36.

They are probably not going to do very well at all in Newark. It

:38:37.:38:42.

They are probably not going to do interesting. Reflate, let's talk

:38:43.:38:48.

They are probably not going to do about FIFA, the World Cup, and Qatar

:38:49.:38:53.

- do you think there should be a rerun of the

:38:54.:38:57.

- do you think there should be a host the World Cup in 2022?

:38:58.:38:59.

- do you think there should be a meetings going on today. And we

:39:00.:39:05.

- do you think there should be a had the allegations over the weekend

:39:06.:39:10.

which will be top of the agenda. The powers

:39:11.:39:12.

which will be top of the agenda. The quite limited, so where we go from

:39:13.:39:17.

here is difficult to see, but there is going to have to be a thorough

:39:18.:39:23.

investigation, and I would not be surprised if

:39:24.:39:24.

investigation, and I would not be rerun of the vote. That might

:39:25.:39:30.

investigation, and I would not be that we might have too reopened the

:39:31.:39:34.

decision regarding 2018, where obviously England were robbed, and

:39:35.:39:37.

the tournament went to Russia. This is usually embarrassing for FIFA. We

:39:38.:39:45.

have heard Lord Goldsmith, who were Tony Blair's top lawyer, saying

:39:46.:39:51.

today that there is a serious case to answer,

:39:52.:39:54.

today that there is a serious case allegations do stack up, then it

:39:55.:39:57.

will have to be rerun. Everything is pointing in that direction. Thank

:39:58.:40:04.

you both very much. For the rest of today's programme, we have four new,

:40:05.:40:08.

wonderful, female MEPs, or beautiful, all intelligent. Joey

:40:09.:40:13.

Barton, eat your heart out. Joining us now are Vicky Ford, Anneliese

:40:14.:40:25.

Dodds, Jane Collins and Catherine Bearder. Anneliese Dodds, have you

:40:26.:40:31.

had to give up a job to do this and become an MEP? Well, my life changed

:40:32.:40:38.

anyway last year because I gave birth to a little boy, so I have

:40:39.:40:42.

been on maternity leave. I normally work as a senior lecturer, so I have

:40:43.:40:47.

been off, and I am very grateful to my employer, Aston University. And

:40:48.:40:58.

what about you, what happens now? It is going to be very interesting,

:40:59.:41:02.

because there is now a wave of new UKIP MEPs coming in, so there will

:41:03.:41:07.

be stronger representation for the Eurosceptic voice over there. Let's

:41:08.:41:13.

get down to it, then - there have been discussions already about the

:41:14.:41:16.

European Commission president rumbling on, and reports that David

:41:17.:41:20.

Cameron has made threats that the UK would have to leave if Jean-Claude

:41:21.:41:25.

Yunker became the president. Who would be your candidate? I want to

:41:26.:41:31.

see a reformer. We have said a number of times that our

:41:32.:41:33.

relationship with Europe once to change. Names that we have heard

:41:34.:41:42.

include the Finnish candidate, and the Irish one. Christine Lagarde has

:41:43.:41:53.

also been a name which has come up. Funnily enough, Francois Hollande

:41:54.:41:56.

does not seem to be wanting to be challenged by the Right in France. I

:41:57.:42:00.

want to see a reformer, anything else would be a backward step. Let's

:42:01.:42:05.

hear from another former Prime Minister, Tony Blair, earlier today.

:42:06.:42:16.

I am not a candidate, do not get my name mixed up with this, that is not

:42:17.:42:21.

going to happen. In respect of who should be the president, my view is

:42:22.:42:24.

that we should just look for the best doesn't do the job. There

:42:25.:42:28.

should not be any predisposition, we should just find the best person to

:42:29.:42:36.

do the job. It is an important job, and if you define it in the way that

:42:37.:42:40.

I am defining it, in other words, you want someone who is capable of

:42:41.:42:44.

driving through that big agenda, then that is the kind of person you

:42:45.:42:47.

should go for. Ought about Tony Blair?! This is the man who gave

:42:48.:42:52.

away the British rebate and handed more powers to Brussels. What the

:42:53.:42:56.

voters have said very firmly in my region is, we do not want more of

:42:57.:43:00.

the same. And Kenny has pretty well said he is not up for it, and there

:43:01.:43:05.

are not that many more names up for it, are there? Again, he is totally

:43:06.:43:12.

against reform, he is almost Federalist, so that would be a

:43:13.:43:16.

disaster. I am so relieved to hear Tony Blair say he will not be a

:43:17.:43:20.

candidate. Because quite frankly, he is a megalomaniac and a warmonger.

:43:21.:43:27.

So who would you have, then? It is a difficult decision. There are not

:43:28.:43:30.

many names which appealed to me on the list. Whichever way you dress it

:43:31.:43:35.

up, they are all in favour of more integration into the EU, not what we

:43:36.:43:41.

are for. But the irony is that you are going to have bigger

:43:42.:43:44.

representation in an institution which you do not believe in, so is

:43:45.:43:49.

it going to be the role of UKIP to disrupt and create dissent in the

:43:50.:43:53.

European Union? No, I do not think that is the way we look at things.

:43:54.:43:58.

We are certainly not going over there to join the club, we are there

:43:59.:44:02.

to do a job, to be the eyes and the ears of the people that voted for

:44:03.:44:06.

us, and they voted very, very strongly in this last election.

:44:07.:44:11.

Catherine Bearder, how did you manage to succeed, since you are the

:44:12.:44:15.

only lip them MEP? If I knew what that was, I would bottle it and pass

:44:16.:44:22.

it around my colleagues. -- the only Liberal Democrat MEP.

:44:23.:44:24.

it around my colleagues. -- the only Liberal We were the only party to

:44:25.:44:28.

come out as the party of in, and it was the right thing to do. We knew

:44:29.:44:35.

once we went into government, which was also a brave decision, to go

:44:36.:44:41.

into government as a junior party, and governments always get a

:44:42.:44:44.

kicking, but we were the only one brave enough to stand up for in,

:44:45.:44:49.

which was absolutely the right thing come we have other parties which

:44:50.:44:55.

didn't. But that has been derided by the voters, your view, that the

:44:56.:45:05.

pro-European party of him, as you say it, has been completely honest?

:45:06.:45:11.

The Tories were kicking it into the long grass, and the Labour Party was

:45:12.:45:15.

just talking about national politics. What is Labour, then? We

:45:16.:45:22.

are the party of a Europe which is being reformed. We are upfront about

:45:23.:45:26.

it, unlike the coalition. We are the party that says, we need to have an

:45:27.:45:31.

EU which is more focused on jobs and growth. For a long time we have set

:45:32.:45:35.

out what we would like to see changing in the EU, which has not

:45:36.:45:38.

been the case with the other parties, which is very

:45:39.:45:42.

disappointing. But you cannot reform the main issue which people voted

:45:43.:45:48.

on, which is migration. While we are in the EU, there is no reform on

:45:49.:45:54.

migration. With respect, I did not interrupt you. People on the

:45:55.:45:58.

doorstep are very concerned about what is happening, particularly

:45:59.:46:01.

around their living standards. For some people, that is linked to

:46:02.:46:05.

migration. And Labour again has been the only party which says, we need

:46:06.:46:09.

to look at the standards that we need, so that people are not

:46:10.:46:12.

affected by competition from other countries. Your party has been

:46:13.:46:16.

against the minimum wage and against all measures which protect people

:46:17.:46:19.

from competition from migration, so we need to have an honest debate

:46:20.:46:23.

about this. Are you against the idea of limiting the freedom of movement

:46:24.:46:32.

of people within the EU? I think it has been very important for British

:46:33.:46:36.

people and migrants but we need safeguards so that it doesn't lead

:46:37.:46:39.

to a race to the bottom and in some areas, like housing and working

:46:40.:46:45.

rights, it has. Would you want to limit the freedom of movement? Would

:46:46.:46:48.

you want to have a cap on the number of people who could come from other

:46:49.:46:53.

EU countries into Britain? We've seen in this country how having a

:46:54.:46:56.

target on the number of migrants simply doesn't work. That's because

:46:57.:47:02.

we can't control the EU migration. I'm talking about the Government's

:47:03.:47:06.

overall target for migrants coming into the country. That hasn't worked

:47:07.:47:11.

for them. What Labour is saying that we need longer transitional periods

:47:12.:47:15.

for new countries coming in but the fundamental problem is that it isn't

:47:16.:47:18.

a migrants themselves but the potential impact they have on the

:47:19.:47:23.

labour market, on housing, and public services. We should deal with

:47:24.:47:26.

that and not demonise people coming into the country. You won't be able

:47:27.:47:30.

to hit that target on the levels of migration. I just find this whole

:47:31.:47:35.

argument from Labour trying to rewrite history. Labour was the

:47:36.:47:40.

government that presided over the economic collapse of this country

:47:41.:47:45.

and uncontrolled immigration. The economy was growing when we left

:47:46.:47:51.

office. Do you apologise or whether frontbenchers wrong to apologise?

:47:52.:47:58.

They have apologised for it. But was that apology right? Personally I

:47:59.:48:02.

feel that we a lot from migration but I think it's right to look at

:48:03.:48:05.

longer transitional controls for new countries coming in. But in relation

:48:06.:48:10.

to your first point, the economy was growing when we left office. There

:48:11.:48:14.

do need to be stronger controls on freedom of movement of people,

:48:15.:48:20.

especially in areas - I see it in parts of the east of the - where

:48:21.:48:24.

we've had some very big pockets of immigration and this is why the

:48:25.:48:29.

Prime Minister has said no more accession countries without looking

:48:30.:48:32.

at much more than just transition controls but other controls. A

:48:33.:48:37.

renegotiation on that issue is part of the whole package. That does not

:48:38.:48:43.

mean no immigration but it means you need to look at the whole ago Chez

:48:44.:48:51.

Chez. Isn't that what people want? There are over 2 million Brits

:48:52.:48:55.

living and working in the rest of Europe and others looking here.

:48:56.:49:02.

History will tell you that when there are difficult times, difficult

:49:03.:49:06.

decisions to be made, pressures on services and housing, it's very easy

:49:07.:49:14.

to say that it is their fault. Why is your argument falling on deaf

:49:15.:49:21.

ears? I was elected and we have... You were the only one. In a lot of

:49:22.:49:27.

places where we were working, we were winning councils and holding

:49:28.:49:30.

councils and doing really well in pockets. We got a kick in, like all

:49:31.:49:39.

the parties got a kicking, because... Conservatives and Labour

:49:40.:49:45.

got a drubbing. Labour should have come second. Best result since 1994.

:49:46.:49:57.

What about the renegotiation? There is pressure being put on David

:49:58.:50:02.

Cameron for firmer plans and policies in terms of repatriating

:50:03.:50:05.

powers. He's promised a referendum. In some extent, you've had your high

:50:06.:50:09.

point in the European elections, many critics will argue, and that

:50:10.:50:16.

will be that. The way the EU treats David Cameron, with great

:50:17.:50:18.

disrespect, and especially with people saying that David Cameron is

:50:19.:50:21.

trying to use blackmail if he becomes president, it shows how much

:50:22.:50:29.

clout we have in the EU. But there is no renegotiation or reform on

:50:30.:50:34.

migration if we're in the EU. But if John Claude Junker gets in, he will

:50:35.:50:38.

be part of a massive block. He is also with Merkel. That is going to

:50:39.:50:42.

have a great influence, no reform, and it will go to federalism. So if

:50:43.:50:47.

you ask me who I definitely didn't want to beat you president, Tony

:50:48.:50:52.

Blair and Mr Junker. What are you going to do if Mr Junker does become

:50:53.:50:57.

the President? The mandate that I believe people voted for in my part

:50:58.:51:01.

of the world where three Conservatives stood and three were

:51:02.:51:04.

elected, is that we want reform which works for business but we do

:51:05.:51:11.

need reforms on movement and... So the package of what we can negotiate

:51:12.:51:15.

will get put to the people in an in-out referendum. First of all...

:51:16.:51:26.

First of all, you have to have next year's general election. There will

:51:27.:51:29.

be a choice of voting for these two parties, which is more of the same,

:51:30.:51:34.

or of parties which give you a chance of a renegotiation and a

:51:35.:51:41.

referendum. There will be no chance of a referendum, will there, if John

:51:42.:51:48.

Claude Junker becomes the president. It is going to make it very

:51:49.:51:53.

difficult for David Cameron to get the reforms he wants. That's why I

:51:54.:51:56.

said electing him... Here's Angela Merkel's favourite. We spent the

:51:57.:52:03.

last year having a review of all the competencies that we have with the

:52:04.:52:06.

European Union and every single one has come out and said that we have a

:52:07.:52:13.

good level of competencies in the balance of our level of membership

:52:14.:52:17.

of the EU. There are a few reports going on but there is one that

:52:18.:52:20.

hasn't been released by David Cameron and that is the one on

:52:21.:52:24.

migration. I can bet some money here that says that it is saying it is

:52:25.:52:30.

fair and equitable. What it's saying is that what we do here, whether we

:52:31.:52:35.

don't enforce the legislation on minimum wages and housing is...

:52:36.:52:40.

Briefly, should Labour offer an in-out referendum? On the basis of

:52:41.:52:43.

the MEPs that were elected, the success of Eurosceptic parties. As I

:52:44.:52:49.

mentioned before, this is Labour's best result in a European elections

:52:50.:52:53.

for 20 years. Nonetheless we do need to listen to people and for a very

:52:54.:52:58.

long time, Labour has been saying we would offer people a referendum if

:52:59.:53:01.

it looked like the relationship with the rest of Europe was going to

:53:02.:53:05.

change. The difference is that we are completely clear on what we need

:53:06.:53:08.

to see changed in Europe and the Conservatives haven't come out on

:53:09.:53:13.

this have the right to know. You said you want more European taxes,

:53:14.:53:16.

more European spending. That is what I have heard. We argued against an

:53:17.:53:24.

increase in the budget and we said people needed to keep the rights to

:53:25.:53:27.

maternity and paternity leave, the social chapter, which you would

:53:28.:53:28.

jump. Let's hold it there. We can't get away from election

:53:29.:53:34.

fever on the Daily Politics. We can't stop analysing why

:53:35.:53:37.

people vote the way they do. In a moment we'll be talking to one

:53:38.:53:40.

professor who thinks voting habits may be hard-wired into us

:53:41.:53:44.

from birth. But first let's take a trip

:53:45.:53:46.

down memory lane. And against many expectations, Mr

:53:47.:53:54.

major has done it with the smallest Conservative majority since Winston

:53:55.:53:59.

Churchill's in 1951. Four consecutive victories for the

:54:00.:54:02.

Conservatives have been done for a hundred years. This is perhaps one

:54:03.:54:08.

of the most rheumatic nights, for many people the most dramatic night

:54:09.:54:13.

in British politics they've seen. It was like 1945 when Labour swept in,

:54:14.:54:19.

like 1979 when the Tories swept in. Let's have a look over here at our

:54:20.:54:24.

swing, tough. No swing at all from last time. There has been a very

:54:25.:54:30.

small squint of the Tories but the Labour Party has survived in their

:54:31.:54:36.

battle ground seats in the middle. Tony Blair back with a majority of

:54:37.:54:42.

66, with the smallest popular vote since the great reform act of 1832

:54:43.:54:49.

for an incoming government. In narrow political terms, it's been

:54:50.:54:52.

fascinating, not to see the country deliver a hung parliament but to

:54:53.:54:57.

vote in a way that has produced a political scenario of immense

:54:58.:55:03.

complexity. We'll see whether these elected politicians really are able

:55:04.:55:07.

to work together and are up to the job.

:55:08.:55:10.

And we're joined now by Dr Darren Schreiber from Exeter University,

:55:11.:55:13.

who has been been developing the new field of neuropolitics,

:55:14.:55:16.

Neuropolitics is based on the idea that your brain is built for

:55:17.:55:22.

politics so for the last 3 million years, we've been involved in a

:55:23.:55:26.

cognitive arms race. We are having a bigger, more expansive brain, that

:55:27.:55:31.

has been an advantage and it's strange because humans have such big

:55:32.:55:35.

brains in such relatively small bodies. The evidence seems to

:55:36.:55:38.

suggest our brains are built for politics. What are you saying? That

:55:39.:55:43.

we are born with the view is that we then have later on? The second

:55:44.:55:48.

chapter in my book argues that we're hard-wired not to be hard-wired

:55:49.:55:52.

because as you've seen in this conversation, politics is really

:55:53.:55:55.

complicated, so that's why we need such a huge brain. Dolphins,

:55:56.:55:59.

elephants, orangutans all have much larger brains than we might expect

:56:00.:56:04.

because they also have complex Coalition or politics. We have the

:56:05.:56:08.

most complex politics and the biggest brains to go along with it.

:56:09.:56:12.

That's the brains behind it, if you like, but what about the nurture

:56:13.:56:17.

argument, that, actually, if you are brought up in a certain area with a

:56:18.:56:21.

family that believes a certain political tribe, doesn't that have

:56:22.:56:25.

more influence over whether you're hard-wired or not? What your

:56:26.:56:28.

background is and where you come from does have a lot of influence

:56:29.:56:35.

but that predict about 69% of your political attitudes. If I brain

:56:36.:56:40.

image you as a Republican or Democrat in the USA, I can tell your

:56:41.:56:44.

party affiliation with about 80 to be sent accuracy, by brain imaging

:56:45.:56:49.

you while you do a gambling task force top that a significant be

:56:50.:56:51.

better than if I know the political affiliations of your parents. By

:56:52.:56:55.

knowing your parents I know your genetics and the environment that

:56:56.:56:59.

you are talking about in which we are raised. It isn't just biology

:57:00.:57:03.

but the effect the environment has on our brains that allows us to tell

:57:04.:57:05.

a lot about your political attitudes. Let's try some of this

:57:06.:57:11.

out on our guests. Do you think your political allegiances in your DNA or

:57:12.:57:16.

has it developed? Well, I'm married to a zoologist who studies monkeys,

:57:17.:57:20.

so nature and nurture is almost equal but if you are liberal and

:57:21.:57:25.

fair thinking and for fairness, you are Lib Dem. This is a little brief

:57:26.:57:31.

taste test. A little strip of paper I'm giving each guest, which have

:57:32.:57:35.

come from Darren Schreiber, not made by me. You put them in your mouth

:57:36.:57:40.

and give us your thoughts after a second or so. You can chew it. Just

:57:41.:57:47.

put it in your mouth. Don't worry. Any taste? Paper. Just paper. What

:57:48.:57:55.

is your response, Darren? There is preliminary evidence that people who

:57:56.:57:59.

are more Conservative taste a bitter taste. It's a small percentage of

:58:00.:58:03.

effect but what we're finding is that there is a slight probability

:58:04.:58:09.

of somebody being more Conservative who has a sharper taste. Different

:58:10.:58:13.

people have had pretty squeamish reactions. A sort of dry, papery

:58:14.:58:25.

taste. Nobody -- no bitter taste? Are you sure you ripped up

:58:26.:58:32.

taste. Nobody -- no bitter taste? bits of paper? It's more bitter than

:58:33.:58:32.

sweet but bits of paper? It's more bitter than

:58:33.:58:40.

more Conservative, then? I will, of course, have to remain completely

:58:41.:58:44.

impartial. I'll chew it afterwards but I won't give you the results.

:58:45.:58:48.

Thank you very much. Interesting that the ladies didn't really get

:58:49.:58:49.

the taste. The one o'clock news is

:58:50.:58:52.

starting over on BBC One now. as Britain's museums open up...

:58:53.:59:13.

at night.

:59:14.:59:17.

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