09/11/2015 Daily Politics


09/11/2015

Jo Coburn with the latest political news, including an interview with John Cridland of the CBI on EU renegotiation. Also, George Osborne's government cuts, and 'vintage Galloway'.


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Transcript


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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

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Four government departments say they've agreed to cut

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their day-to-day spending by an average of 30%.

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That's pleased the Chancellor, George Osborne, ahead of his

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But savings on welfare and at the home office could prove more

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Our Adam's been out and about finding out what you guys

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If you have a afford to have tattoos and smoke, why should you be

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claiming benefits? The Prime Minister says he's deadly

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serious about securing reform in Europe

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and has no emotional attachment to He likes to cut a dash

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and wants to be London Mayor. And that's not all,

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we'll be talking to George Galloway about his plans to enter

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the vintage clothing market. All that in the next hour

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and with us for the duration Conservative, Mark Field,

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and Labour's Peter Kyle. Now first today, let's talk

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about Jeremy Corbyn and the Chief of the Defence Staff,

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Sir Nicholas Houghton who yesterday exchanged a war of words, albeit

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on different television programmes. First off, let's hear from

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Sir Nicholas, who was interviewed on The whole thing about deterrence

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rests on the credibility of its use. When people say you were never going

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to use the deterrence, what I say is you use the deterrent every second

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of every minute of every day, and the purpose of a deterrent is that

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you don't have to use it because you successfully deterred. So no point

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in spending billions and billions of pounds? Because then terrorists are

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undermined. Well that didn't please

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Jeremy Corybn over much, who responded by accusing the general

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of breaching the constitutional principle that the military remains

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politically neutral. Let's listen to the Labour Leader

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speaking to Channel 4 News last I would gently say to him, with the

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greatest of respect, we live in a democracy where politicians are

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elected to Parliament in order to take political decisions. The Armed

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Forces, obviously, must advise, and obviously must put the point of view

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across, and obviously they have a great deal of access to the

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Secretary of State for Defence, the Prime Minister and every other MP

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and opposition members. I do not think it is helpful for them to

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start making political comments of a partisan and party political nature.

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And with us now former Labour Security Minister,

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First of all, is Jeremy Corbyn right? Did a Sir Nicholas Houghton

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breach his constitutional duty when he said he would be worried if

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Jeremy Corbyn's antinuclear views were translated into power? I think

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he was bluffed into seeing a little bit more about deterrence theory

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then he meant to say. I don't think he had any intention at all of

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saying that Jeremy Corbyn will do this and that is wrong and therefore

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he is not happy about them. I think he was gently bluffed into saying

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more than he should have done and at the end of it, he probably did say

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more than he should have done in a political sense. So he did cross

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that line? I think so but just. Let's say that if Jimmy had not said

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anything about it, it would have faded away without that much notice.

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I might be wrong. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn overreacted by saying

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that he would be writing to him and he was outraged by the breach? I

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think sometimes it is better to let some things run. Some things need to

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be reacted too but he clearly made the decision that he feels very

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strongly on this issue. On the substance, did you agree with Sir

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Nicholas Houghton that refusing to launch nuclear weapons, not press

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the button is the fact, undermining the deterrence? Deterrence, clearly

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it means that you are saying that if you do some pity me, I will do

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something back to you. Whilst I have admiration for individuals who are

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pacifists, I do not believe that is the way to run a country. What do

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you say to that, a lot of people would agree with that. If you say

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you will not press the button, you have undermined the deterrence that

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cost a lot of money. The more important question is the democratic

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question. It is all very well having the discussion about deterrence and

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I know there is more or less a convention that senior military

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figures do not tend to express their personal views on things, but he did

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go well beyond that and he did give the impression that Jeremy Corbyn

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was elected as Brown and Mr, if he was, and the word power must

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presumably refer to that, that he would have concerns. Jeremy Corbyn

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would only be elected as Prime Minister if the British people had

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voted in an election for him and his policies. I think it is absolutely

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inappropriate and that a senior military figure should put that

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question mark over a democratic decision by the British people. The

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question, what is absolutely right is, when a political party has been

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voted in, the job of the military, even if they do not like what the

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government is doing, is to do the best they can with a bad job. And

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you try to make sure that you can defend and look after the people of

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the nation and come up against any unforeseen circumstances with what

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you have got. And you don't say, I'm not going to do this because I don't

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like this particular party. That is absolutely right. And that has

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always been a tenet of military forces. Whoever is in power, they

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have been elected and they are the government and we are not a military

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dictatorship. The military are subordinate to government and they

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do as they are told. That aspect is absolutely right. Also, because Sir

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Nicholas Houghton is such a senior figure, that could give the

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impression that all military think that Trident, and replacing the

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nuclear deterrent, is a good idea, but in actual fact... Presumably

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they do? There are certainly some in the military, and some of the more

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senior armoury officers -- army officers who don't like Trident. And

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there is a debate about that. Probably the majority do like it and

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feel that it should be there. They don't like it, but they feel it

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should be there. And I have to say, I share that view. I have been

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deeply involved in the nuclear issue for 30 years. These arguments which

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the Labour Party have gone through, I have been through them so many

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times and I am convinced that disarmament is not our good idea.

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Would you resign that the Labour whip if they took the oath? It is

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highly likely that I would resign if they decided that we would become

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unilateral. Because I am not a member of the military serving as an

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officer so I have that luxury. But the military should get on with it,

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and I think they will. My late father was in the Army added to the

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purist view that he was there to fight for Queen and country and he

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never even voted in the general election although we had robust

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conservative views. I think there is a danger and it would be wrong to

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overstate this, I think he went slightly over the line to say that

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it was deservedly about Jeremy Corbyn. I think one of the strengths

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of the armed services, one of the reasons that along with the

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monarchy, it retains such a great public support, is that it is seen

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as being above politics. It needs to make sure it is that at all times.

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My frustration with this debate is we are talking about process and not

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about the issues. But process is quite important. It interesting,

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because Lord West explained frustration about someone stepping

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over the line but now we are having a debate about you potentially

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resigning the web. As a new MP, instinctively inclined to vote for

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renewal, I am open to debate on both sides and I want to listen to all

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the arguments, sides and I want to listen to all

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the range of opinions in the military. Jeremy has come into power

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the range of opinions in the and he will not be Prime Minister

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for another four and he will not be Prime Minister for another,. -- four

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and a half years. Except we have MPs who say that Labour will not have a

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settled view by that point. Kier Starmer said

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settled view by that point. Kier there could be a timing issue and

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that is the problem when there could be a timing issue and

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votes because Labour has not agreed. Which is why we need to get to the

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issues. There are a range of issues in the

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issues. There are a range of issues once debate. Let's have a

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issues. There are a range of issues learn from it. On that basis,

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issues. There are a range of issues think that Jeremy Corbyn could be

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persuaded to think that Jeremy Corbyn could be

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Party as a whole. Murray eagles has said that they are going

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Party as a whole. Murray eagles has debate in the Labour Party and that

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will start. But the Shadow Home Secretary is disagreeing with the

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Labour Party. Do you think you could change is mind? We have seen it

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before. The Lib Dems found out that when you never think you are going

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to be in power, you can say all sorts of nonsense. I am afraid that

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Jeremy, before he was elected, he was in that arena. Now you suddenly

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find you have got to actually do real things, and it is much harder.

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You have to focus. The Wilson government said that they were going

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to scrap the deterrent when they came into power, and when they got

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there, they had all the briefings and looked at it and they changed

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their mind. I think Jeremy Corbyn is the sort of chap who will have a

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debate and listen to it. I think there is a possibility we might

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change our mind. His electorate would not like to think that if they

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were all killed, and the children would not like to think that if they

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looking after them said he would turn the other cheek. I have been so

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closely involved in this for so long... And are encroached

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positions. But it goes beyond deterrence. Alan has touched on

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this, because there is the issue of a world where we are not able to

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spend endless amounts on defence, and the notion of ring fencing money

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spend endless amounts on defence, that would otherwise go to Trident

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to go to conventional warfare, that is part of the argument. I am with

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you. It want, is part of the argument. I am with

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we will be talking about that in a moment. Could this split the Labour

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Party? If we have the issue where the Shadow Defence Secretary says he

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agrees with Sir Nicholas Houghton rather than Jeremy Corbyn, is that a

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risk? Yes, but there are lots of risks that could split the party.

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Could it become your Europe? Now, because I think the issue will be

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settled by next summer. I think the issue will move forward and the

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party will move on. Lastly, do you think that Jeremy Corbyn's

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unilateralism mind is not changed, would make him unfit to to be Prime

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Minister? I think you could still be Prime Minister but it would be

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completely the wrong thing to do and I think it would be more dangerous

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for our people and our country. It would be up to the country to

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decide, wouldn't it? Thank you both. what is the House

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of Commons due to debate this week? Is it moving the UK parliament to

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Strasbourg whilst restoration work is carried out on the Palace

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of Westminster? Is it selling off Whitehall to build

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new homes. Or is it putting a pop up bar in

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the House of Lords? At the end of the show one

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of our guests, may just give us With the Spending Review just over

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a couple of weeks away these are Some conscientious ministers have

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already handed in their work, some wayward types appear to be

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leaving it to the last minute. George Osborne is demanding savings

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on day-to-day spending of between 25% and 40% by the end

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of this Parliament to help remove Some lucky ministers, including

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Education Secretary Nicky Morgan, International Development Secretary

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Justine Greening and Health's Jeremy Hunt, have some or all of

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their departments protected, meaning This morning the Chancellor has

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announced who is in his good books, Transport's Patrick McLoughlin,

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Environment Secretary Liz Truss and Greg Clarke from Communities and

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Local Government are the teachers pets as they,

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along with the Treasury, have worked Some ministers however have

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been less forthcoming. Home Secretary Theresa May is

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holding out, there are reports she's particularly concerned

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about cuts to police numbers. It's believed Mr Osborne is keen to

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use Mr Duncan Smith's budget to find the ?4 billion of savings that he

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would have made with tax credits. The Work and Pensions Secretary is

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said to be unhappy about the plans and there are reports

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of furious rows behind the scenes. One thing this morning we have

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learnt will be in the Spending Review is the building

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of nine new prisons at a cost of more than ?1 billion, although

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the Ministry of Justice hope it Speaking earlier,

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George Osborne said this. Why he believed further savings were

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necessary. We are still spending too much. We are set to borrow more than

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?70 billion this year, added to our current mountain of debt, currently

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over ?1.5 trillion. That national debt reached 80% of our national

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income this year. While that is high, our economic security is in

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danger. No one knows what the next economic crisis to hit our world

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will be or when it will come. But we know we haven't abolished boom and

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bust. We know we must prepare for whatever the world throws at us. We

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know that if we don't control spending, we run the risk of higher

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mortgage rates and a loss of confidence in our economy. And we

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know for certain that will lead to job losses, businesses closing down,

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homes being repossessed and the livelihoods of working people

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destroyed. And with us now is Paul Johnson from

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the Institute of Fiscal Studies. Able, The savings that we have heard

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about today is about day-to-day spending, what we call current

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spending, is it as big a deal as George Osborne says? The amount he

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has found is small. He is not looking at most of the transport

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budget, just the day-to-day spending and most of transport is capital

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spending. He is not even looking at most of local government spending.

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It is just a bit of what the department spends. The Treasury is

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small. The amount of billions he has found is not many. But it is an

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indication of scale we would expect for the rest of the Parliament. He

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is making a big show of these departments that have found the

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spending, but in a way it is the low hanging fruit of the departments. It

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is the little bits of departments. He has not settled with transport,

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because the big bit is capital and he has not settled with communities

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and local government, this is is not the main local government grant and

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does not tell us what total spending will be. A lot is paid for by

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Council Tax and business rates. George Osborne's argument is with

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debt at 80% of national income, the government needs to prepare for

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another crash. Is 80% too large a proportion? It is more than it has

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been at any time since the mid 1960s. So that is large in that

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perspective. If you look back to the Second World War we were over 200%

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of national income. The question is what are the risks that are

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associated with going into the 2020s with a debt at 80% if we had another

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big crash, that would take it up to 120% and is that too much or not? As

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ever with these things, there is a balance of risks. The risk he is

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taking is big cuts in spending and the risk by not taking it the

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potential for the trouble that could be caused by another recession with

:17:24.:17:30.

80% as debt. If you take those cuts into account, what would be the dept

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made to national debt? What we are looking at in getting to 2020 with a

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balanced budget or a surplus f you maintain, the debt comes down

:17:44.:17:48.

relatively quickly f the economy grows 2 or 3% a year. But it still

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above where it was before the recession. In the Financial Times it

:17:54.:18:00.

is reported there could be some wriggle room because of continued

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low interest rates that may extend into next year and 2017. How much

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does that give the Chancellor to play with? Difficult to sell now, we

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will wait for what the Office of Budget Responsibility says. He has

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had this benefit a couple of times in the past. A couple of years ago

:18:20.:18:26.

interest rates and inflation expectations were down. And looking

:18:27.:18:32.

forward the shocks won't always be in this direction. The low interest

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rate cuts both ways. We have had seven and half years and they don't

:18:41.:18:47.

need to raise much to have an impact on the debt pile. I think George

:18:48.:18:50.

Osborne is right, we need to actress this and there are -- address this

:18:51.:18:55.

and the economic clouds are darkening. . It is good to talk

:18:56.:19:04.

about debt. Because debt has risen And has risen despite the government

:19:05.:19:09.

boasting about bringing down the deficit in part. Debt has not come

:19:10.:19:14.

down. No, the deficit means you're adding to the debt each year. So the

:19:15.:19:19.

question even if you make the cuts, how much of a dent would it ma I can

:19:20.:19:23.

to the national debt. The issue is the confidence of the capital

:19:24.:19:28.

markets, because it has been one of the successes that George Osborne

:19:29.:19:33.

can point to compared to the other options that he has had the

:19:34.:19:36.

confidence of the markets and we have a plan and we are working on

:19:37.:19:41.

that plan. Why not bank that confidence in the capital markets if

:19:42.:19:47.

you like and use it to invest? Why include the capital part of the

:19:48.:19:52.

budget and not as John Macdonald said, use some of that to invest to

:19:53.:19:58.

grow the economy. I would watch what will happen on 25th November at the

:19:59.:20:02.

autumn review. I suspect there may be not on a huge scale, but elements

:20:03.:20:09.

of that there. And we have had a situation that actually the

:20:10.:20:13.

transport budget, the day-to-day budget, is neither here nor there,

:20:14.:20:17.

most of it is large long lasting projects. Do you think it wrong to

:20:18.:20:24.

have that fiscal charter which binds the government to balance the books

:20:25.:20:28.

and keep a surplus on both the budgets. No, it is the rights thing

:20:29.:20:33.

to do. Partly because of the confidence of markets and to make it

:20:34.:20:39.

clear we have a plan, OK, there will be some pragmatic flexibility in the

:20:40.:20:42.

plan from year-to-year. That has happened in the last government and

:20:43.:20:49.

will happen. The flexibility is towards the end of electoral cycle

:20:50.:20:53.

and that is what we have seen. It is interesting that each election that

:20:54.:20:59.

the Tories have Bon, have been done on an ideological platform but they

:21:00.:21:04.

come back to the darling plan by the end of the government. How would

:21:05.:21:09.

Labour cut the deficit. The thing about the dech sit is about --

:21:10.:21:16.

deficit is aimed for a balanced budget. How would you cut the

:21:17.:21:21.

deficit. John Macdonald said he would raise taxes. I

:21:22.:21:25.

deficit. John Macdonald said he paying down the debt

:21:26.:21:33.

deficit. John Macdonald said he growing and has been growing. Yes,

:21:34.:21:34.

but getting growing growing and has been growing. Yes,

:21:35.:21:40.

been bumping along the bottom... Both the last three years...

:21:41.:21:44.

Productivity is comes from a Both the last three years...

:21:45.:21:47.

specific part of the economy in the city of London. We don't

:21:48.:21:49.

specific part of the economy in the industrial platform or growth.

:21:50.:21:51.

specific part of the economy in the services as a whole. The

:21:52.:21:57.

of England, people who are unemployed are against it, small

:21:58.:22:03.

businesses, we have favs and high start ups, but we don't have the

:22:04.:22:09.

growth and that is where the real growth needs to come from. Should

:22:10.:22:13.

the money if there is wriggle room be used to lessen the impact of the

:22:14.:22:21.

cuts? It will be use fodder that. -- used for that. It will be utilised

:22:22.:22:27.

and we will touch on the tax credit. You think that is right. What about

:22:28.:22:29.

the building of prisons. Nine new You think that is right. What about

:22:30.:22:34.

prisons. In fairness part of that will

:22:35.:22:44.

central... Something like Pentonville you will build luxury

:22:45.:22:47.

flats on the site and relocate it and a lot of that will be

:22:48.:22:53.

investment, but will wash its face. We need to renew the physical side

:22:54.:22:57.

of Prison Service and to invest in the social side and make sure that

:22:58.:23:04.

we invest more in breaking the cycle of crime that goes on within

:23:05.:23:06.

prisons. You're going to of crime that goes on within

:23:07.:23:17.

us. What to the votersers think about what we spend on benefits. If

:23:18.:23:22.

only there was a way to find out. Well here is Adam. Everyone loves a

:23:23.:23:28.

discussion about the welfare state on the way to work. So are we

:23:29.:23:30.

spending too much on on the way to work. So are we

:23:31.:23:41.

benefits. A lot of people who are destitute. So too little. Grab a

:23:42.:23:47.

green ball. They have enough for us here, but it is so many that comes

:23:48.:23:51.

from abroad. I don't think that is enough. It spreads for too many

:23:52.:23:59.

people. If you can afford tattoos and smoke or things like that, why

:24:00.:24:05.

should you be claiming benefits? What would you increase? Maybe the

:24:06.:24:12.

tax credits. Controversial. People are suffering. I want you to picture

:24:13.:24:18.

the benefits bill. It is ?202 billion a year. Is that too much? No

:24:19.:24:23.

it is too little. How much more would you spend? Probably about

:24:24.:24:30.

another half again. Really? Yes, why not? I get all benefits, DLA and

:24:31.:24:42.

housing benefit and I have applied for extra benefit. Hopefully I will

:24:43.:24:46.

get that. Your benefits could be going up. Yes, why not. Grab a ball

:24:47.:24:53.

then. Pop it in. She had taken it and run away. You have to put it in

:24:54.:25:02.

the box. It is not a benefit! You put that in very forcefully. I

:25:03.:25:07.

believe strongly. I why do you think we spend too much? Because I think

:25:08.:25:11.

we can't afford it for a start. There are too many other things that

:25:12.:25:15.

we need to spend it on. I think we have fallen into a culture of all

:25:16.:25:22.

rights and no responsibilities. Nobody has a right to endless free

:25:23.:25:27.

living. Well people don't like discussing the welfare state on the

:25:28.:25:32.

way to work. We have an embarrassing meagre number of balls. I think this

:25:33.:25:38.

side's slightly in the lead though. Not much in it. How much of a hit do

:25:39.:25:42.

you think the welfare budget is going to have to take? Or will have

:25:43.:25:47.

to take? That is really largely been announced. The Chancellor announced

:25:48.:25:54.

12 billion of cuts in July. This is what causing him problems, for

:25:55.:26:01.

billion was to come from tax credit cut and it looks like there will be

:26:02.:26:06.

some rowing back from that as a result of vote in the House of

:26:07.:26:14.

Lords. But the 12 billion was in the manifesto and what is being

:26:15.:26:18.

delivered is less. We are aiming at 2020 and we are not sure if we will

:26:19.:26:22.

get the first four billion next year. Should they cut more from the

:26:23.:26:30.

welfare budget? You have got to realise the politics is the art of

:26:31.:26:34.

possible and what happened with the tax credit changes is a sign it will

:26:35.:26:38.

be difficult to get through not just the House of Lords, but the House of

:26:39.:26:43.

Commons. I have been right in favour of what we are doing on tax credits.

:26:44.:26:50.

It is one of the most pernicious elements of the Brown regime. It is

:26:51.:26:55.

negative income tax. Hang on. No, what it was you have to remember why

:26:56.:27:02.

we had tax credits, was that we brought in the minimum wage and your

:27:03.:27:07.

party opposed it. We needed to find a way, we couldn't have brought in

:27:08.:27:14.

the living wage and we needed to get the supplement. Minimum wage is a

:27:15.:27:22.

maximum wage. Don't talk over each other. Where I will extend an olive

:27:23.:27:29.

branch was to say we should have Tran sixed earlier and we --

:27:30.:27:35.

transitioned earlier we should have transitioned from a tax credits to

:27:36.:27:39.

increasing the minimum wage. Your party would have opposed it. We

:27:40.:27:43.

should have made that transition in government. But the problem is the

:27:44.:27:48.

transition now, you're going to cut tax credits and not supplement it

:27:49.:27:55.

with the so-called living wage for another three and a half or four

:27:56.:27:59.

years. So let's see what happens when George Osborne makes his

:28:00.:28:03.

statement. In the battle between George Osborne and Iain Duncan Smith

:28:04.:28:06.

you said you think he was doing the right thing with tax credits, whose

:28:07.:28:14.

side are you on if Iain Duncan Smith digs his heel in. That is up to

:28:15.:28:19.

them. They have got to work it out. Whose side are you on? I think we

:28:20.:28:24.

have got the welfare budget is too high and we need, because I think

:28:25.:28:28.

the economic clouds are darkening and we need to address this and

:28:29.:28:34.

particularly the whole tax credits. There is a irony in fairness one of

:28:35.:28:38.

reasons we have had the jobs miracle, because we have had tax

:28:39.:28:44.

credit and subsidised employment and keep employment levels up. Now you

:28:45.:28:47.

want the pull the rug in under people? Now we want to eget

:28:48.:28:55.

employers to realised a minimum wage shouldn't be a maximum wage.

:28:56.:29:00.

Although put the mood box to one side that said it was too much. The

:29:01.:29:06.

public tend to be on the side of cutting the welfare bill. Saying it

:29:07.:29:17.

is too expensive. The public want value for money and sensitive tot

:29:18.:29:23.

itive to the fact that their money is hard earn and they want the

:29:24.:29:27.

Government to spend the money wisely. But the public are sensitive

:29:28.:29:30.

to fairness and want to make sure that people in need of support get

:29:31.:29:35.

the support and that is why the mood box shows a more balanced view than

:29:36.:29:41.

two years ago. After this tax credit cuts problem, are you worried that

:29:42.:29:44.

George Osborne has lost his credibility? No it is a short-term

:29:45.:29:49.

thing. The issue is none of the options for getting out of this will

:29:50.:29:53.

be easy. He has made it clear that we are not going to ignore the House

:29:54.:29:59.

of Lords. I would be happy to support him continuing with this

:30:00.:30:05.

policy. My instinct is what might happen is that we cannot, this

:30:06.:30:10.

element of policy and bring in the changes for any new applicants. The

:30:11.:30:14.

truth that does leave a gap in what we are trying to achieve this

:30:15.:30:19.

getting the budget down. It only needs a another 0.2% growth and that

:30:20.:30:27.

can be bridged. What are the options in terms of tweaking the tax credits

:30:28.:30:32.

or putting money in, are those the things that are on offer to George

:30:33.:30:34.

Osborne? The trust in long-term savings, then

:30:35.:30:49.

just doing this for new applicants, or as you roll onto Universal

:30:50.:30:53.

Credit, don't change the system that was cut. The system that was cut.

:30:54.:30:58.

There were big. You could do nothing to the current system. And then once

:30:59.:31:02.

Universal Credit is in place, you have made the savings. But it is

:31:03.:31:06.

important to be clear that there is an issue here for the Chancellor,

:31:07.:31:09.

because he set himself a welfare cap for next year. Does the tax credit

:31:10.:31:16.

changes for 2016, he will likely bust the welfare cap, which means he

:31:17.:31:29.

will have to go back to back to Parliament to ask them to give him

:31:30.:31:32.

more money to spend on welfare, which of course he can do, but it

:31:33.:31:34.

might be a little bit embarrassing because there are constraints year.

:31:35.:31:37.

There is a constraint for 2016 and he is also got a overall budget

:31:38.:31:40.

constraint for 2020. And meeting the latter might be easier than meeting

:31:41.:31:41.

the former. Thank you. The Prime Minister has told the CBI

:31:42.:31:42.

annual conference that he is "deadly serious" about securing

:31:43.:31:44.

reform in Europe and has "no emotional attachment" to the

:31:45.:31:47.

institutions of the EU. In a speech this morning,

:31:48.:31:50.

Mr Cameron said he wasn't going to pretend for a second that Britain

:31:51.:31:53.

couldn't survive outside the EU and he stressed

:31:54.:31:55.

that the key goal was to secure Let's listen to what the PM had

:31:56.:31:58.

to say just a little earlier. The argument isn't whether Britain

:31:59.:32:11.

could survive outside the EU, of course it could. The argument is how

:32:12.:32:15.

are we going to be best off. That is the argument that I hope we're going

:32:16.:32:21.

to be making together after this successful negotiation. When it

:32:22.:32:26.

comes to the crucial issues, our prosperity, our national security,

:32:27.:32:28.

of course we can prosperity, our national security,

:32:29.:32:33.

those things outside the EU, and how we make ourselves more

:32:34.:32:39.

Joining me now is the UKIP MP Douglas Carswell.

:32:40.:32:42.

Welcome back to the Daily Politics. Mark, recent reports suggest the

:32:43.:32:49.

Prime Minister is preparing to watered-down plans to ban EU

:32:50.:32:55.

migrants from claiming in work benefits for four years. Would you

:32:56.:32:58.

like him to stick to the plan of four years? I would like him to put

:32:59.:33:03.

this forward but inevitably this is going to be a negotiation that will

:33:04.:33:07.

have to take place. The important thing about all of the reforms, the

:33:08.:33:11.

EU is clearly a body that needs reform. I am under no illusions

:33:12.:33:15.

about that. I don't think it is a perfect institution at all. However,

:33:16.:33:20.

we need to recognise that this is a down payment of reform. I hope we

:33:21.:33:24.

will get a package to be put to the electorate at some point in the next

:33:25.:33:32.

year or so but however, the truth is this has got to be not a destination

:33:33.:33:35.

but a process. I think in years to come, reform is something we need to

:33:36.:33:39.

look at and take EU members with an attorney. If like many of the other

:33:40.:33:42.

things on the shopping list, although we don't know the detail,

:33:43.:33:47.

David Cameron has been advised by civil senior servants that they are

:33:48.:33:51.

not achievable. As you say, it is a journey but will that be enough to

:33:52.:33:55.

convince people, on trust, an something happening down the line,

:33:56.:34:04.

that we might actually lay treble -- actually get something as important

:34:05.:34:08.

as reforming benefits? I think that is an important part of it. But with

:34:09.:34:13.

regards to the broader competitive agenda, making sure that Britain is

:34:14.:34:17.

capable and protected outside the euro zone, I think the important

:34:18.:34:22.

thing is that there is a package that David Cameron comes back with,

:34:23.:34:26.

not just for UK exceptionalism but for the reforms that needs to happen

:34:27.:34:30.

in the EU as a whole. Also, a programme of reform that will extend

:34:31.:34:33.

beyond the referendum. David Cameron says that a vote to leave the EU is

:34:34.:34:37.

not without risk. Did you accept that? The risky option would be to

:34:38.:34:42.

say that we would remain part of a group of countries

:34:43.:34:45.

say that we would remain part of a control. The EU cannot deal

:34:46.:34:46.

say that we would remain part of a huge economic and demographic and

:34:47.:34:49.

technological changes that are happening around the world.

:34:50.:34:52.

technological changes that are have lost control of the agenda.

:34:53.:34:55.

They cannot control currency or borders. The risky option would be

:34:56.:34:59.

to show our -- through our lot in with a feeling project. We need to

:35:00.:35:01.

take back control. But do you with a feeling project. We need to

:35:02.:35:06.

the point that it is not without risk to leave the EU? I think

:35:07.:35:13.

the point that it is not without less risky option is leave the EU.

:35:14.:35:17.

Is the more honest argument from the banister, as he says it is not about

:35:18.:35:22.

whether the UK can survive outside, because he accept that we can, but

:35:23.:35:25.

it is about which option will make the UK more prosperous and secure,

:35:26.:35:30.

so there is a more honest argument. If he was going to be honest he

:35:31.:35:34.

would be telling us that he is planning on having this in June and

:35:35.:35:37.

he's not going to get any significant new deal. I have to say,

:35:38.:35:43.

if there is honesty, I don't think the CBI is the forum to discuss it,

:35:44.:35:48.

given that they have been releasing some dodgy bowling. Will he

:35:49.:35:53.

presented as a big win? I think he will be candid about it and I think

:35:54.:35:56.

that they are looking at the other options. What are they? Can we see a

:35:57.:36:03.

list of the reforms? We are going to have a letter tomorrow and it will

:36:04.:36:06.

not be a bullet pointed list but it will look at the areas in which we

:36:07.:36:09.

are looking to continue to negotiate. I have been struck by

:36:10.:36:14.

David Cameron and Philip Hammond, because they have been out in many

:36:15.:36:17.

of the European capitals over the last few months, looking to build an

:36:18.:36:22.

alliance on to make this sort of reform. Everyone recognises that the

:36:23.:36:26.

EU needs these reforms. You have to look at the other options, you are

:36:27.:36:31.

right. The notion that we can restate the Commonwealth, I mean,

:36:32.:36:35.

the Indians laugh at the facility, how facile that prospect is.

:36:36.:36:38.

Australia, New Zealand, they see themselves as Asian nations. What

:36:39.:36:44.

has happened in Canada, we might be able to cut a deal with Stephen

:36:45.:36:50.

Harper but not Trudeau. I think it is perfectly possible for us to...

:36:51.:36:56.

Ascot the Norwegians and the Swiss. They trade outside the EU, and

:36:57.:37:02.

profitably. But the officials do not because they negotiate these

:37:03.:37:07.

conditions as a condition of joining. The problem you have is

:37:08.:37:10.

that the European Union you describe is unrecognisable to the millions of

:37:11.:37:14.

people... Let me finish. It is unrecognisable to the millions who

:37:15.:37:17.

visit Europe in the last couple of months. You have described something

:37:18.:37:23.

that is just destitute. Morally, economically and socially. This is a

:37:24.:37:32.

hyperbole... It is their to say that the Labour Party's position is to

:37:33.:37:37.

stay in, whatever the report. But also, the focus on the rapport. It

:37:38.:37:43.

comes down to the fact that people in this country are supportive of

:37:44.:37:47.

the European Union. -- focus on the reform. We will have a referendum

:37:48.:37:52.

and we will see. We don't want to stay in at any price... But let's

:37:53.:37:57.

see what the voters say. We were famously in the same lobby in 2011,

:37:58.:38:01.

voting in favour of the referendum. I think the public needs to have a

:38:02.:38:08.

say. We want the Europeans to stop meddling in details of the country,

:38:09.:38:09.

and focus on the big issues. Well David Cameron was speaking

:38:10.:38:14.

at the CBI conference in Their Director General,

:38:15.:38:16.

John Cridland joins us now. Welcome to the programme. The Prime

:38:17.:38:23.

Minister argues that a vote to leave the EU is not risk-free but he rules

:38:24.:38:28.

nothing out of the cannot secure necessary reform. Do you rule

:38:29.:38:32.

nothing out? I am encouraged that the Prime Minister is serious about

:38:33.:38:36.

that reform and that process is what we will need to convince British

:38:37.:38:40.

business and the public that Europe is the way forward. For me, reform

:38:41.:38:44.

is everything and we have heard from my own Prime Minister, committing to

:38:45.:38:49.

a strong reform agenda, and from the tee shot, the Minister of Ireland,

:38:50.:38:55.

how important it is that he helps Britain support that reform because

:38:56.:39:00.

Ireland wants Britain to be in. Most Britons want to stay in a reformed

:39:01.:39:11.

EU. That is the issue of the day. But if the majority of your members

:39:12.:39:16.

vote to leave, eight out of ten firms who attended the July meeting

:39:17.:39:20.

of the CBI Presidents committee are not actually allowed to support any

:39:21.:39:23.

political campaigning, so whose views do you represent? I represent

:39:24.:39:30.

the views of 190,000 businesses, which through our 140 trade

:39:31.:39:36.

associations, we speak for, employing 7 million workers. And the

:39:37.:39:40.

large majority of those want to remain in a reformed EU, not the EU

:39:41.:39:47.

of the status quo. And I am always happy to debate on the issues, but

:39:48.:39:51.

they don't seem to want to debate on the issues. They just want to debate

:39:52.:40:00.

on bits of process. John Criddle and saying that the majority of his

:40:01.:40:05.

members want to stay within the EU. -- Tabak. These CBI polls measure

:40:06.:40:12.

voter opinion in the way that Volkswagen measure emissions. They

:40:13.:40:16.

are inherently dodgy. They claim that eight out of ten... They have

:40:17.:40:20.

not actually said that, Douglas Carswell. Let's look at objective

:40:21.:40:27.

assessment. Ernst Young, the Federation of Small Businesses,

:40:28.:40:29.

business for Britain, they have produced calling data that produces

:40:30.:40:36.

the business -- that shows that business is divided. Douglas

:40:37.:40:39.

Carswell says dodgy, in terms of the way you do polling. I can speak with

:40:40.:40:45.

a strong mandate from my members, and I spent five years in this job.

:40:46.:40:49.

I don't think I would be doing this job if I was not speaking for the

:40:50.:40:54.

voice of British business. There are more than 1000 small and medium-size

:40:55.:40:58.

businesses in the room behind me and they have listened patiently and

:40:59.:41:02.

politely to political speakers who have debated this issue this

:41:03.:41:06.

morning. Of course, there are a variety of views and the more

:41:07.:41:09.

international business, the more likely they are to see the upside to

:41:10.:41:13.

Europe. The more domestic the business, the more likely they are

:41:14.:41:16.

to see the downside. So you would expect a different business

:41:17.:41:19.

organisations with different membership profiles to come up with

:41:20.:41:23.

different results. Let's look at these pictures because as the Prime

:41:24.:41:26.

Minister was speaking, some protesters unfurled a banner which

:41:27.:41:31.

said, CBI, the voice of Brussels. I think you can see that they are.

:41:32.:41:34.

They clearly do not think that you would never recommend to leave the

:41:35.:41:39.

EU. Whatever happens. Reform or not. Are they right to? The word two

:41:40.:41:45.

demonstrators and there were 1000 other people in the room. The

:41:46.:41:48.

demonstrators were politely heard, as I hope my views are. But you have

:41:49.:41:55.

not answered my question, and you said that you desperately want

:41:56.:41:59.

reform. If there is no substantial of reform, would you recommend

:42:00.:42:04.

voters leave to -- vote to leave the EU? I am confident that there will

:42:05.:42:07.

be reform but we will take that reform package back to CBI members

:42:08.:42:13.

and ask them for a renewed mandate. We are not unconditional on being in

:42:14.:42:17.

the EU, we want a reform package. If we get it, we will ask our members

:42:18.:42:23.

whether they are satisfied with it. Welcome to democracy. That is clear.

:42:24.:42:26.

They are going to ask the members again. Leaked members from the --

:42:27.:42:33.

minutes from the board meeting show that they are in at any price. They

:42:34.:42:36.

are possessed about promoting the EU. They wanted Britain to join the

:42:37.:42:40.

euro a decade ago and they wanted us to join the ERM in the 1980s. They

:42:41.:42:44.

were wrong then and they are wrong now. I will come back to you in a

:42:45.:42:49.

moment, John Cridland. I never believed in joining the euro. I am

:42:50.:42:56.

the Director General of the CBI and I speak for the organisation. The

:42:57.:43:00.

CBI is not in favour of joining the euro. What we want to do -- what you

:43:01.:43:08.

seem to want to do is talk over other people. Don't govern him,

:43:09.:43:13.

because we want to hear everybody. The question John Cridland said is

:43:14.:43:17.

even if the leadership of the CBI site that they would advocate to

:43:18.:43:20.

stay in, they are going to give their members a chance to have their

:43:21.:43:24.

say and judgment. Surely that enough? I think it is good that they

:43:25.:43:29.

will ask the members, but the poll that they have produced, showing

:43:30.:43:32.

that eight out of ten businesses support being in the EU is

:43:33.:43:36.

inherently dodgy. I think we have to question whether or not the

:43:37.:43:40.

leadership of the CBI generally reflects business opinion. There are

:43:41.:43:44.

other voices out there that have produced objective data that shows

:43:45.:43:49.

the business is divided. Companies that can afford to hire lobbyists in

:43:50.:43:53.

Brussels might like the system but others that cannot, organisations

:43:54.:43:58.

that are not big banks and lobbies, might recognise that actually the

:43:59.:44:02.

single market... The CBI exists to consult its members and to speak for

:44:03.:44:07.

its members. The idea that you want to... There are other organisations.

:44:08.:44:11.

I am sitting here with two bastions of conservatism and I am pretty

:44:12.:44:15.

proud that I am the only person to let finish a around here. 1-0 for

:44:16.:44:22.

public education. It is right that the CBI listens and represents its

:44:23.:44:25.

members. That is the right process to go through and I am proud that

:44:26.:44:28.

they are doing it. They need to speak with a voice and listen and

:44:29.:44:32.

consult. John does not exist to tell his members what to think, he exists

:44:33.:44:36.

to listen to them and speak for them. Douglas Carswell is obsessed

:44:37.:44:41.

with polling and the process of polling. Let's stick to the issue

:44:42.:44:43.

and let him speak for his members. But shouldn't they be transparent,

:44:44.:44:48.

as transparent as possible about the broad views of business?

:44:49.:44:52.

Absolutely. And John was trying to speak but he was spoken over the top

:44:53.:44:58.

of. You have made that point. As a pushy grammar schoolboy, I have to

:44:59.:45:05.

say... The difficulty of your stands, Douglas, you started by

:45:06.:45:09.

single thing was a sham and we would get no reform. We're going to get

:45:10.:45:13.

reform but you will say that is nothing like enough. You are going

:45:14.:45:17.

to say it is smoke and mirrors, come the referendum. I think we are going

:45:18.:45:23.

to get a package here. I hope there will be some exceptions, that we

:45:24.:45:26.

will be able to get a good deal for Britain but also, we all know that

:45:27.:45:30.

this institution does require reform. We are members of lots of

:45:31.:45:35.

institutions, like the UN, which disappoints us from time to time. We

:45:36.:45:39.

are members of NATO and various elements of that disappoint us. It

:45:40.:45:43.

does not mean we walk out, we want to play an ongoing role and try to

:45:44.:45:43.

make it better. John Cridland, you're stepping down

:45:44.:45:53.

and on our membership of the EU, are you at your successor at one? Yes.

:45:54.:45:58.

We want Europe to do more of what it does well and less of what it does

:45:59.:46:05.

badly. British business wants a better deal from Europe and Caroline

:46:06.:46:11.

will continue to represent the views of broad mass of business. Would you

:46:12.:46:16.

be a dpan of having the referendum in June? -- fan. I want to have the

:46:17.:46:21.

referendum when we have the reform package and so the public can make

:46:22.:46:26.

an informed choice. Thank you. Next June, you would be in favour of next

:46:27.:46:32.

June? I I want it as soon as possible. We are committed to having

:46:33.:46:40.

reform and it shouldn't be rushed. But for certainty let's get this

:46:41.:46:43.

done and But for certainty let's get this

:46:44.:46:51.

it is conducted honestly with honest polling.

:46:52.:46:55.

Now how's the political calendar shaping up this week?

:46:56.:47:00.

the Scottish Parliament, will complete its stages in the Commons

:47:01.:47:02.

And tomorrow the Trade Union Bill should also complete its final

:47:03.:47:07.

stages in the Commons before MPS pack up for a short recess.

:47:08.:47:10.

On Wednesday the European Union will hold

:47:11.:47:11.

And on Thursday Britain plays host to the Prime Minister of India,

:47:12.:47:16.

The first visit by an Indian Prime Minister for over ten years.

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Let's talk now to Kevin Maguire from the Mirror and Sam Coates

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There may are outside st houses of Parliament. The spending review, how

:47:27.:47:40.

tricky is this row going to be an Iain Duncan Smith and George

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Osborne. Will Iain Duncan Smith win or will he be forced to resign? If I

:47:44.:47:47.

knew that, I would be a rich man. But it is a live and quite personal

:47:48.:47:55.

row between these two. At stake is Iain Duncan Smith's flagship

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project, universal credit to help people to earn more in work. George

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Osborne has come into try and raid it and George Osborne wants between

:48:04.:48:08.

one and two billion out of project in order to pay for what was a mess

:48:09.:48:13.

up with tax credits after the House of Lords rejected the plans to cut

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about a thousand pounds from three million low paid households. I

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wouldn't expect Iain Duncan Smith to go without quite a fight. Whether he

:48:24.:48:29.

encourages George Osborne to back down, or points him in another

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direction of his budget for savings, we are still waiting to find out.

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They have got two weeks. There is in spending review times that is a long

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time. But it is one of most fraught bits of the review. Followed by

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Theresa May protecting cuts to police. Is that again going to be

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the battle symbolising for those departments that are unprotected?

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The Home Office is in a different place, we are not hearing the

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squeals of outrage you do from people around Iain Duncan Smith.

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Theresa May is a canny operator and knows the point that they cut police

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funding in the last Parliament and yet crime went down and not up. So

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there is little less squeamishness there about spending. There will be

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spending for intelligence agencies that will continue to go up. Part of

:49:25.:49:30.

that comes under the Home Office. It will be a mixed picture. But that I

:49:31.:49:36.

don't think feel like it is at the heart of a big battle. Now Jeremy

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Corbyn and Trident. It is difficult, he is outraged by what he calls a

:49:45.:49:50.

constitutional breach by Nicholas Houghton, but his shadow Defence

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Secretary seems to agree with the chief of defence. She did initially,

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not realising that Jeremy Corbyn would make a statement and Maria

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Eagle is all for Trident, which ever you want, he Jeremy Corbyn, isn't

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and Downing Street was clear they thought that Nicholas Houghton was

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entitled to say what he said, I suspect because they did because

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when another defence staff criticised the military strategy,

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David Cameron said I will do the talking, you do the fighting. ? A

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democracy he should not intervene. That is an error on his part and the

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Conservatives have criticised him and the principle of him intervening

:50:41.:50:44.

and I suspect the SNP are in the same boat and some Labour people who

:50:45.:50:48.

are for renewing Trident, but they will think it is wrong that the head

:50:49.:50:56.

of armed forces is intervening. What about the timings, because if as we

:50:57.:51:01.

were talking, there isn't a settled position on the Labour side, on

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Trident, one way or the other, before some key votes, that is going

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to be difficult? Is Yes Labour are in a mess on this. Jeremy Corbyn is

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against renewing Trident, the position of the party across the UK

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is to renew it. The Scottish Labour Party have voted against renewing it

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and in some ways he was saved from himself at the last Labour

:51:27.:51:29.

conference when it wasn't debated, because it would probably have voted

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to retain Trident and it would have meant if his new politics lets the

:51:36.:51:40.

party make policy, he then presumably would have had to troop

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into the lobby with the serves to renew Trident. In one way it suits

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Jeremy Corbyn that no decision is made and until and if it will go his

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way. Otherwise, he will be in embarrassing position. Worse than

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now. That will be the key, the timing of the votes. On George

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Osborne I asked about his credibility, how damaged is it or is

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it not by the tax credit row? Well I think it is too early to say it has

:52:15.:52:18.

damaged his chances for the leadership, because that is three

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years away and there will be a lot of ups and Down's before that. The

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tax credit measure is the biggest item, the biggest change at welfare

:52:31.:52:35.

that I can remember in ten years of covering Parliament and it changed

:52:36.:52:39.

eight million people and made them worse off, including three million

:52:40.:52:42.

who will lose an average of a thousand pounds a year. That is

:52:43.:52:46.

massive and it looks like George Osborne got the tactics wrong,

:52:47.:52:49.

because he put it through the lords as well. He got the strategy wrong

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and it was hurting hard working family and got the communication

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wrong by saying there maybe mitigation and many Tory MPs are

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baffled, because the things that George Osborne should be good at he

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didn't. Thank you. Now, he's made the Fedora

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his trademark accessory and he says Now former MP and London mayoral

:53:12.:53:14.

hopeful, George Galloway, has plans to open a shop

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specialising in vintage clothing. He's even put his money where his

:53:18.:53:21.

mouth is and bought a lease on one In a moment we'll be talking to

:53:22.:53:25.

the man himself but first a reminder of some other politicians

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that like to cut a dash. # You can win the admiration

:53:30.:53:39.

of the common population # You can be a star,

:53:40.:53:52.

long as you're looking good! # You have made the main connection,

:53:53.:53:56.

you can win the next election # Don't care who you are,

:53:57.:54:00.

just leave them mesmerised, # Long as you're looking good

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at how much you can get away with # You'll get treatment preferential

:54:04.:54:15.

your main credential # It's a rule rule that's still

:54:16.:54:20.

essentially iron-clad # Remember you can't look

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back, long as you're looking good! # They air-brushed me. Who is the best

:54:25.:54:40.

dressed politician apart from yourself. You showed a good cross

:54:41.:54:46.

section. Even the unlikely Ronald Reagan, who I thought was imMacyou

:54:47.:54:59.

latly -- well dressed. Even if his brain was missing. Both of your

:55:00.:55:04.

guests this morning in fact are well dressed, well turned out. I won't

:55:05.:55:08.

ask about me. What about Jeremy Corbyn? Well he is actually brushing

:55:09.:55:13.

himself up well now I think. You thought he was a scruff before. He

:55:14.:55:19.

looked fine at the Cenotaph in white tie and tails at the buck pas

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reception -- Buckingham Palace reception for the chps the Chinese

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president. He should have discovered this years ago. What about Zac

:55:31.:55:39.

Goldsmith? Yes and he wears vintage clothes and his billionaire father

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deceased, he wears his suits and wears him well. That is not Vince

:55:43.:55:50.

thaj. -- vintage. Everything I'm wearing apart from the underwear and

:55:51.:55:57.

socks is vintage. I buy my shirts which are bespoke British made, now

:55:58.:56:03.

long extinct English tailors for ?10 a pop. I buy shirts every week at

:56:04.:56:10.

?10 a time. You will pay ?100 for a new shirt made... You have to swap

:56:11.:56:16.

contacts and cards. Give these guys some tips. You mentioned Reagan and

:56:17.:56:22.

we focussed on Margaret Thatcher. Was she stylish. I may not be a

:56:23.:56:28.

gentleman, but I know how gentlemen behave and it was impolite to

:56:29.:56:32.

comment on any woman's dress. But no, I didn't. I thought he was going

:56:33.:56:40.

soft. Do you think the BMA were wrong to turn down the Chancellor? I

:56:41.:56:46.

thought it was lower middle class boredom. In a glass case. I am sure

:56:47.:56:52.

it was a commercial decision that Margaret Thatcher would have

:56:53.:56:55.

approved of. No one would have gone to see it. You know that is a point.

:56:56.:57:01.

What, is it important to look good for politicians? I don't think

:57:02.:57:06.

sharp, politicians need to look authentic. As I'm finished in the

:57:07.:57:16.

House I put jeans on. I dress for the occasion. I want to make sure

:57:17.:57:27.

your shop is a success. I like your suit and lapels. Don't worry I

:57:28.:57:33.

haven't given up politicians. suit and lapels. Don't worry I

:57:34.:57:38.

si Deek Khan be wok? Yes he is third place in the sattorial stakes. I'm

:57:39.:57:45.

third place in the sattorial stakes. I'm

:57:46.:57:54.

am on 33/1 today and Greens and Ukip are on 100/1. Me and Zac are out in

:57:55.:57:57.

front sattorially. Yes. The campaign's going from

:57:58.:58:04.

strength to strength. Have you decided about joining Labour, you

:58:05.:58:06.

wanted there been an invitation? There has

:58:07.:58:12.

been no invitation. It is a question of rescinding. They have to rescind

:58:13.:58:18.

my unjust expulsion opposed by Mr Foot and Mr Benn and Mr Corbyn. But

:58:19.:58:23.

they're showing no sign. Well, watch this space.

:58:24.:58:35.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

:58:36.:58:38.

The question was - what is the House of Commons due to debate this week?

:58:39.:58:42.

(A) Moving the UK parliament to Strasbourg whilst restoration work

:58:43.:58:46.

(B) Selling off Whitehall to build new homes.

:58:47.:58:48.

(D) Putting a pop up bar in the House of Lords.

:58:49.:58:51.

The knives are sharpened and the heat is on. It can only mean one thing.

:58:52.:59:06.

Britain's best chefs are back in town.

:59:07.:59:11.

They're here because they want this title. I'm really excited.

:59:12.:59:15.

Jo Coburn with the latest political news including an interview with John Cridland from the CBI conference on EU renegotiation. Also on the programme, can George Osborne pull government departments into line ahead of the spending review? And 'vintage Galloway'...


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