21/01/2016 Daily Politics


21/01/2016

Tim Montgomerie from The Times joins Andrew Neil and Jo Coburn throughout the programme. They take a look at the implications of the fall in the markets.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:38.:00:39.

Are we heading for another financial economic crisis?

:00:40.:00:43.

Billions of pounds have been wiped off shares here and abroad,

:00:44.:00:46.

in response to a collapse in oil prices and growing concern

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The IMF and other major institutions have all downgraded

:00:50.:00:54.

Or are we heading for a major downturn?

:00:55.:01:06.

Some of the biggest political beasts have done the job,

:01:07.:01:08.

but what does it take to be a good Secretary of State for Health?

:01:09.:01:12.

Labour spent nearly ?5,000 on this snazzy little number

:01:13.:01:14.

at the General Election, but was it money well spent?

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It is all going to be done, no slanging matches, just say - what

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awful weather we are having. And loathe them or loathe them,

:01:29.:01:34.

the Home Secretary announces she's killing off the friendly

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traffic warden. All that in the next hour of TV

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gold, which swept the board at last night's National

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Television Awards. And with us for the duration,

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the former Chairman of Conservative Home,

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Tim Montgomerie. He also writes for

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the Times you know. At the moment he's upped sticks

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and lives in Washington DC, Now first today, to the public

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inquiry into the killing of the former Russian spy,

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Alexander Litvinenko in 2006. The inquiry found that his murder

:02:05.:02:06.

was probably approved by President The report found it was

:02:07.:02:09.

likely that the two men who put a radioactive

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substance in his tea at a London hotel, were acting

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under the direction of the Russian Secret Service,

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overseen by Mr Putin. Theresa May has been giving a

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statement in the House of Commons and has obviously said not only was

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this not a surprise but they have taken action, because this was ten

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years ago. Because there isn't much more they can do, is there? There is

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plenty they could do if they wanted to. We are sat in, I think probably

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the greatest city on Earth at the moment, London, but one of the

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reasons why it has had so much money from abroad coming in, is we are

:02:53.:02:55.

very tolerant of where people get their money from. People buying

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properties in London and Kensington and some of the more desire

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properties in London. Bout through shell companies. We have no idea who

:03:04.:03:07.

is behind the shell companies. A lot of those people are the people

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supposedly subject to sanctions. Britain could do an awful lot more

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to investigate the money that's flowing into London and stop some of

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the rich Russians who are behind some of the deeds we are complaining

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about, from getting here. Right. You say they could do more, as you say

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the problem is there are reasons that they probably won't do much

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more, except Theresa May has said that obviously they'll continue to

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chase the two suspects and that they are going to freeze the assets of

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those two chief suspects. But in a statement from the Prime Minister's

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spokesman, they have to weigh carefully the need to take measures

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and respond with the need to work with Russia, not just domestically

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but also in foreign affairs. That's the great truth, Jo. We feel,

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Britain feels, the Foreign Office feels we need to work with the

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Russians at the moment in the battle against ISIS, which means cuddling

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up to Assad, not annoying the rush yabs. So, it is the battle against

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ISIS, more than anything else that is stopping us taking any action

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against Russia. Assad, who I think was the cause of the Syrian civil

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war, we are keeping him in place, keeping close to the Russians. It is

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an una attractive set of real politics situations.

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The world's financial markets have settled down a lttile this morning

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but it's still the worst start to a year since the 2008 financial

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crisis, with investors dumping equities because of the slide

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in the price of oil and about China's stalling economic growth.

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Both are taken as indications that the world economy

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Yesterday, at one point, more than ?50 billion

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was wiped from the value of Britain's biggest businesses,

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as the UK stock market plunged to its lowest level in four years.

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The FTSE 100 is down 20% since it's peak last April.

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Well, world leaders are meeting in Davos, at the World Economic

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From there let's talk to our Correspondent,

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You are full of bankers and global businessmen there. What are they

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say? How worried are they about prospects for 2016?

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# Well, Andrew, it looks picture perfect here. Those moments in the

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markets you were talking about cast a big shadow over this shindig in

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the Alps yesterday. As you say the FTSE 100 followed her major indices,

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down 20%. That meanses in a bare market, the direction of travel is

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down. People are worried about where the global growth is coming from.

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You say China is decelerating. Who will take over the baton? Is India

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ready to do that? Without global growth, the value of the companies

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on the followcy 100 justify the valuations put on them, or have the

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markets been pumped up and discourt torted by quantitative easing and

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will he interest rates. Now the direction of travel on that has

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changed, do they have the fundamentals to fall back on and

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that's what people are worried about. How worried are they about

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the Chinese economy, one of the main reasons why global equity markets

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have gone the way they have gone this month? Well, there is some

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scepticism about the official figures. I spoke to the former

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number 2 at the Central Bank of China yesterday. He said - look, we

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have put our numbers together by generally accepted international

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standards. Yes, we are slowing but there is no reason to suspect that

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the growth rate there is not 7%. I think what is more worrying in the

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Chinese economy is things like the property market which has boomed,

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propped up by a massive increase in credit. If those house can't be sold

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you might get a property bust which can spread throughout the financial

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system. That's the warning light there. But there are waves of nausea

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coming off, thinking, is this just a shock market correction, the kind of

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thing that happens once in a while after a long wrong, or does it say

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down the road there is something more unpleasant coming to the global

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economy. Markets often predict what is going to happen in a few months'

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time or a year's time in the real economy. It happened in 2008 and

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some big hitters are saying we are heading for a 2008-type scenario.

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Most of the people I speak to here say they cannot see a global

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recession but the question is - does the stock market, is it worth the

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valuations it is getting, or is this the moment of reckoning, when people

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have a reality check and say prospects

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have a reality check and say you very much for, that enjoy your

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time in Davos, it is a good place to meet be everybody. Let's pick up on

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some of these points. And with us now, the former

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International Development Minister, Alan Duncan and Labour MP,

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Stephen Kinnock, who used to work Alan, Duncan, the stock markets are

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reacting in the way they do, Alan, Duncan, the stock markets are

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they are concerned about the course of the world economy. They look at

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the price of oil and see of the world economy. They look at

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demand. They look at what is of the world economy. They look at

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too. Are they right? Are they right to be worried that the global

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economy is in danger of recession? I think they probably

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economy is in danger of recession? I of the problems of analysts at the

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moment is they are underestimating moment is they are underestimating

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the significance of the collapse in oil which has been so dramatic and

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relatively quick. Although this is great for ?1 at the pumps, it is

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going to have very, very tough effects else where. Fist of all, it

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is as much a political problem in most Gov-producing companies need

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$80 to pay their way. They'll face political turmoil them. 'Have

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$80 to pay their way. They'll face suck a lot of money from Western

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markets to pay the deficit which will put pressure on liquidity and

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interest rates. You will look at companies like Shell that don't have

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dividends for pensions. The North Sea Oil is falling to bits. I think

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you will see a lot of pressure on companies and company debt. I think

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we'll see big corporate failures, not just in the oil sector but also

:09:09.:09:12.

elsewhere, because of all of this. This is a big problem. Economic in

:09:13.:09:16.

many respects, but deeply political, in a whole global context. Do you

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foresee 2016 being the year recession returns? I think there are

:09:23.:09:26.

some real risks. What we are seeing is the fundamentals of the economy

:09:27.:09:29.

are not strong enough. You are seeing a shift in China from being a

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country that has been the safer, to being an spender. They are trying to

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stimulate domestic consumption. Still a massive safer, though.

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Absolutely but I think that transition is painful and there are

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growing pains. So it reflects an imbalance. I think we are also

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seeing, in the UK, exposure because our economy is imbalanced. Look at

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our trade deficit and productivity crisis. What major economy, perhaps

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other than America s in better shape than perhaps the British economy? It

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depends on how you define "better shape." Give me one. The quantity of

:10:08.:10:12.

growth fine, the question for me is about the quaulted of growth.

:10:13.:10:15.

Unemployment figures going down but what sort of jobs are we creating.

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Productivity crisis the worst it has been in living memory. That is

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depends on the industry. Productivity in the car industry is

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one of the highest in the world and never been higher. I'm more

:10:30.:10:33.

concerned about signs of resechlingts you is both seem to

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think it is on the who are eye zovenlt when you look at the

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economic fundamentals, of course economic growth, global growth is

:10:40.:10:44.

hardly sparkling but nor is any major region with the exception of a

:10:45.:10:48.

couple of emerging markets in recession. What the is to stop us

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just continuing to go along at 2% to 3% growth. If you go back to 2006/7,

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people didn't see Liamen brothers coming but it came. An economy like

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the UK, we are far too reliable on consumer-driven debt rather than

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domestic growth. Household debts will be lower than in 2008. It is

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massive. Well relative to assets it is not. I'm puzzled to see the gloom

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and doom here. I could see you couldn't write a boom scenario for

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the global economy, the IMF, World Bank, OECD have downgraded its

:11:32.:11:34.

forecasts but China is still growing, maybe less than before.

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India is growing faster than it has for sometime. Even the eurozone is

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now going to get about 1% growth. The American economy is still at

:11:42.:11:45.

2.5%. We are expected to grow by 2.5%. Where does the recession come

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from? I think we, as the UK, are in a comparatively strong position. I

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think we are fairly well underpinned. The point I make is not

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so much that we are going to go into a 2008 collapse and recession, as

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that oil prices at this level are not an automatic stimulus to good,

:12:04.:12:11.

broad economic global growth and that accompanying dramatic collapse

:12:12.:12:17.

will be real political pressures. Already Venezuela is almost

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bankrupt. That's marginal compared to the global economy. Brazil is in

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marginal state in GDP terms? You are in the oil market. You were in the

:12:29.:12:32.

oil market. Let me ask you this - oil is cyclical. What we will see

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this year, the Russians already talking about cutting production.

:12:36.:12:40.

Partly because they can't get it out, for other reasons as W Shale in

:12:41.:12:47.

America will take a dive in America because the price has fallen. When

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do you think the oil price starts it tick up again? There is a lot in

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storage which has to be consumed. Iran is coming onstream with an

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extra one or two million barrels a day. Libya if there is a political

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settlement could go up from 250,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million. The

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volumes stand to be over the next year or two, still a lot larger than

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consumer demand. My view isn't so much that we will see complete

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economic collapse as that accompanying the fall in oil and

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commodity prices, there is no automatic stimulus and there is

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massive political danger in already the region, the turmoil, adding to

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the turmoil in the region that's there already. Thats' my main point.

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It is not universal good news is all I'm saying. If we were to ties

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another downturn as a result of external factors -- if we were to

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face. We are vulnerable to all sorts of

:13:40.:13:45.

external forces F that was to provoke another downturn, what

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weapons should the Government, whether Labour or Government, deploy

:13:49.:13:52.

to deal with that downturn? For me, the watchword is resilience. You

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need to build an economy that has the flexibility to absorb a shock

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and bounce back. In order to do that I think you need a proper active

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industrial policy. We unfortunately have a Secretary of State for

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Business and innovative skills. What is an active policy Proper

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investment in skills, infrastructure, energy. The whole

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basis for an economy that actually starts it make things again. These

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are all long-term issues. I want to bring Tim Montgomerie in. They are

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long-term reforms you are advocating. What should the

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Government macroeconomic response be if we hit a downturn caused by

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external force this is year? Really there aren't that many moneyly it

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levers left. Interest rates are as will he as they can be. You could go

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negative. They could. Switzerland is negative and Sweden and the ECB. The

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borrowing costs are higher than the headline interests. Still

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historically. We are short of weapons. That's why a more Keynesen

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approach is the way forward. You are in the United States. The American

:14:58.:15:03.

economy is chugging along, I put it no higher than that. It has been

:15:04.:15:08.

said it is growing but no momentum. Where do you think we are in terms

:15:09.:15:12.

of the economic cycle. Does the market ties another downturn? Good

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and bad. India benefits from the lower oil prices and mucher Europe.

:15:19.:15:21.

Alan is right it talk about the problems in the Middle East but a

:15:22.:15:25.

lot of the world economy will benefit. The key question is the one

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that you ask - we spent an awful lot of money, borrowed a lot to get us

:15:30.:15:34.

out of the last crash. We are only half way to get right of the

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deficit. For example in Britain, in the Autumn Statement last year,

:15:39.:15:40.

George Osborne gambled on growth continuing to get there.

:15:41.:15:46.

He spent the ?27 billion he found down the back of the sofa. The other

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issue is quantitative easing, you asked about America and there are

:15:54.:15:58.

now huge questions about inequality. A lot of Republican and Democrat

:15:59.:16:06.

opposition are using that. The United States has begun the rise in

:16:07.:16:10.

interest rates before sorting out the bad news, will it continue

:16:11.:16:16.

rising rates? They will wait. No, and we have to keep calm and carry

:16:17.:16:20.

on. I agree that they won't. Thank you for joining us. It's a very

:16:21.:16:25.

large sofa that George Osborne has got. It must be to have 27 billion

:16:26.:16:28.

in it! Well, David Cameron's due to make

:16:29.:16:31.

a speech in Davos in just over The Prime Minister's expected

:16:32.:16:34.

to call on business leaders to make the case for the UK to remain

:16:35.:16:38.

inside a reformed European Union. He's pledged to hold a referendum

:16:39.:16:41.

on the UK's membership, once he's finished his attempts

:16:42.:16:43.

to negotiate changes. Let's talk now to our

:16:44.:16:45.

Correspondent, Eleanor Garnier. Tell us first about the latest news

:16:46.:16:55.

on timing and choreography once he has the negotiated settlement he is

:16:56.:17:01.

looking for? Well, David Cameron said his ministers will be allowed

:17:02.:17:05.

to campaign to leave the EU but only after the government has come to an

:17:06.:17:08.

agreed position and it will have to be made at a cabinet meeting. The

:17:09.:17:13.

summit is happening on Thursday and Friday, but a Cabinet meeting is

:17:14.:17:19.

held on choose day so Euro sceptics worry that the 48 hours could be

:17:20.:17:24.

critical will stop and David Cameron may have an advantage over the

:17:25.:17:27.

weekend because he could come back and say, I have got a deal in Europe

:17:28.:17:33.

and been victorious, and he can make his case to stay in Europe. The

:17:34.:17:37.

Eurosceptics will have dessert on their hands because the government

:17:38.:17:40.

will not yet have come to an agreed position. Downing Street are saying

:17:41.:17:46.

today that actually there will be a Cabinet soon after a deal has been

:17:47.:17:51.

done, so we could see one on Saturday or even Sunday. We don't

:17:52.:17:58.

know yet. They are not giving a time or a day. During the campaign or the

:17:59.:18:02.

renegotiation, David Cameron and his team have had to rebuff claims that

:18:03.:18:07.

actually this referendum has been rigged and it's all been far too

:18:08.:18:11.

easy. Downing Street don't want to be seen to be taking advantage of

:18:12.:18:16.

the weekend so they will give the Eurosceptics what they want even

:18:17.:18:19.

though we don't yet have a date and time. Thank you very much.

:18:20.:18:22.

Joining us now is the Executive Director for Britain Stronger

:18:23.:18:24.

Welcome to the Daily Politics. First of all, just picking up on that,

:18:25.:18:32.

what do you make of the change in how they will choreograph the post

:18:33.:18:36.

negotiated settlement Cabinet meeting? Those 72 hours after David

:18:37.:18:41.

Cameron comes back are incredibly important. First impressions really

:18:42.:18:46.

count, lots of people are waiting for the renegotiation is -- the

:18:47.:18:59.

renegotiation outcome. If he can get the sceptics do say that he has a

:19:00.:19:02.

brilliant deal that could settle in the public mind and if the Cabinet

:19:03.:19:06.

Eurosceptics aren't able to speak until Monday or Tuesday after words,

:19:07.:19:12.

again, the one-sided debate that the Prime Minister has set up continues.

:19:13.:19:17.

The danger is that there will be resignations from the Cabinet if the

:19:18.:19:20.

Cabinet meeting doesn't happen very early after renegotiation. It

:19:21.:19:24.

doesn't sound like the arrangement would hold anyway because they would

:19:25.:19:30.

speak out anyway. Will they? Are you sure that the Eurosceptic Cabinet

:19:31.:19:33.

ministers are actually going to speak out, even when the veil of

:19:34.:19:40.

silence has been lifted? There are at least five Cabinet ministers who

:19:41.:19:46.

will definitely campaign for an exit. Chris Grayling, Iain Duncan

:19:47.:19:50.

Smith, Theresa Villiers, Priti Patel, and John Whittingdale. The

:19:51.:19:55.

people in the balance are people like Sajid Javid. If the Business

:19:56.:20:01.

Secretary says that Britain will survive outside the EU, that is

:20:02.:20:05.

significant. I would not be optimistic about Boris Johnson, I'm

:20:06.:20:07.

pretty sure he will be on optimistic about Boris Johnson, I'm

:20:08.:20:19.

out campaign ten points ahead? Will that make a difference

:20:20.:20:22.

out campaign ten points ahead? Will Johnson? It

:20:23.:20:24.

out campaign ten points ahead? Will lots of them will not want to be on

:20:25.:20:28.

the losing side. Are you disappointed that that is the case?

:20:29.:20:30.

the losing side. Are you Boris Johnson would certainly give

:20:31.:20:37.

them a boost. I am a past unit supporter of Britain becoming

:20:38.:20:40.

independent like Australia, Canada, Japan. These nations run their own

:20:41.:20:45.

affairs and Britain should as well. Ministers have said privately and

:20:46.:20:47.

publicly over the years that unless there is significant change they

:20:48.:20:56.

would campaign for an exit. In future leadership elections for the

:20:57.:21:01.

Conservative Party, there could be consequences if they don't.

:21:02.:21:03.

Listening to that, let's talk about Labour. We spoke to the co-chair of

:21:04.:21:08.

the Labour campaign to leave the EU and she said around 25-30-0 MPs --

:21:09.:21:25.

Labour MPs would support Brexit. Well over 90% have been signed up by

:21:26.:21:32.

Alan Johnson to his in campaign. Most Labour MPs have moved their

:21:33.:21:35.

mind Andy made up their mind clearly. Jeremy Corbyn is clear

:21:36.:21:41.

about his position. Alan Johnson has been working with Labour MPs around

:21:42.:21:46.

Britain. Of course in the cross-party campaign we have people

:21:47.:21:50.

from Labour, SNP, Greens, the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, all

:21:51.:21:57.

working to keep Britain in the European Union. Should MPs have a

:21:58.:22:02.

free vote? Kate Hoey was adamant that it should be and it will

:22:03.:22:07.

happen. That is a matter for Jeremy Corbyn. Should it be? People have

:22:08.:22:11.

strong convictions and should be allowed to set out what their

:22:12.:22:15.

convictions are. I don't think it is likely to particularly split the

:22:16.:22:20.

Labour Party as things stand. I don't see the issue with that. There

:22:21.:22:24.

are big issues at stake about what is best for Britain and how to

:22:25.:22:28.

ensure that jobs can be created in the future and what is best for our

:22:29.:22:33.

security. These are serious issues. Over the last week we have had a lot

:22:34.:22:38.

of momentum on our side. I haven't received it and I don't know where

:22:39.:22:45.

it is,... Just a matter of time! Is that a promise or a warning? Let's

:22:46.:22:49.

look at the details. Newspaper reports as adjusting there are

:22:50.:22:53.

errors as I'm sure you know. The claim is that EU membership is worth

:22:54.:23:00.

?3000 to the average partnership are year -- the average household per

:23:01.:23:04.

year. They looked at a range of peer-reviewed studies setting out

:23:05.:23:08.

what the economic benefits are to the UK from being in the European

:23:09.:23:11.

Union compared to a scenario where we had not joined in the mid-70s and

:23:12.:23:16.

they divided that by the number of households. It's not a precise

:23:17.:23:20.

figure. It's an average of different studies but here is the point, you

:23:21.:23:24.

will hear a lot from the leave campaign is about the costs of

:23:25.:23:29.

membership, ?340 for the average household per year, and paired to

:23:30.:23:34.

that ?3000 figure. Even if that is a rough average we are talking eight

:23:35.:23:40.

or nine to one in terms of the ratio. The figures work both ways. A

:23:41.:23:46.

study done for Ukip said there was in the region of ?165 billion to be

:23:47.:23:52.

saved which you would dispute. Does it help anyone to have these very

:23:53.:23:58.

bold claims? But they are statistics? We could have a

:23:59.:24:01.

disagreement on statistics and it would turn off everybody. We are

:24:02.:24:06.

putting up a wall if we are to leave the European Union, we would still

:24:07.:24:11.

trade with Europe and a lot of those benefits in the CBI numbers would

:24:12.:24:14.

still exist because we would still be trading with European Union

:24:15.:24:19.

partners. What we would get by leaving Europe, the net contribution

:24:20.:24:25.

is rising year-on-year on year. We can repatriate the money and spend

:24:26.:24:29.

it on the NHS and having our own trade posts all over the world. What

:24:30.:24:34.

we don't know is what the trading relationship would look like, this

:24:35.:24:39.

week Daniel Hannan said he supports the Norway option whereas Dominic

:24:40.:24:44.

Cummings who runs the leave campaign says that they don't want the

:24:45.:24:49.

Norwegian model. Will we retain access to the single market and if

:24:50.:24:53.

so we would have to pay budget contributions and accept rules and

:24:54.:24:56.

regulations and free movement and all of those things would be true.

:24:57.:25:01.

It is absolutely true that there is risk in leaving but staying in as

:25:02.:25:06.

well. Everyone knows that since we joined the European economic

:25:07.:25:09.

community it has changed beyond recognition. If Britain stays, they

:25:10.:25:13.

will take as the granted for years. I don't think that's right. There

:25:14.:25:20.

will be the possibility of a refugee union and there will be consequences

:25:21.:25:25.

for staying in. It's a choice of two risks. The access to the European

:25:26.:25:30.

market, 500 million, would have to accept free movement of people. With

:25:31.:25:35.

Norway and Switzerland who are in the European economic area, who do

:25:36.:25:40.

have the access, they still have to accept the free movement of people

:25:41.:25:43.

as well. The rate of immigration into Norway and Switzerland is

:25:44.:25:50.

higher than in the UK. People need to be honest about what they want

:25:51.:25:54.

like Tim has been, free movement would stay and you would still

:25:55.:25:58.

accept rules and regulations. We will have to leave it there. The

:25:59.:26:03.

Pope is now coming out. He is on our side and we have the farmers! I

:26:04.:26:09.

don't think he has a vote. The Vatican is not in. He should join

:26:10.:26:15.

himself. You are very right. What are you guessing would be the

:26:16.:26:18.

referendum date? There is a growing view that it will be June 23 but it

:26:19.:26:24.

will be contingent upon an agreement will stop I would say so. -- an

:26:25.:26:27.

agreement. June 23, don't be away. Now chicken suits, a bright pink

:26:28.:26:34.

bus and a helicopter Not your head but a politician's

:26:35.:26:36.

head. Yesterday the Electoral Commission

:26:37.:26:43.

published figures revealing exactly how much and how the different

:26:44.:26:45.

political parties spent their money during last year's

:26:46.:26:48.

General Election campaign. So Jo, how much did

:26:49.:26:50.

Harriet Harman's bus cost? The Labour party spent nearly ?5,000

:26:51.:26:59.

on Harriet Harman's 'Pink Bus' I didn't know they were so

:27:00.:27:05.

expensive. But the infamous Ed Stone wasn't

:27:06.:27:10.

included in the party's finances. Labour say the eight foot six

:27:11.:27:13.

monument was left out due The Conservatives spent a total

:27:14.:27:16.

of ?15.5 million on the campaign, Their costs included ?487,000 on

:27:17.:27:23.

private jets to get senior Tories across the country, ?2.4 million

:27:24.:27:31.

for election guru Lynton Crosby and ?40,000 for a personal

:27:32.:27:41.

photographer to trail the PM. The SNP spent ?1.5 million

:27:42.:27:47.

on the General Election campaign - including more

:27:48.:27:49.

than ?35,000 on a helicopter And UKIP spent nearly ?3

:27:50.:27:51.

million including ?10,000 for copies The Lib Dems spent ?3.5 million

:27:52.:27:57.

and the Greens spent just So, which party got most bang

:27:58.:28:04.

for their buck? The figures suggest the Conservative

:28:05.:28:10.

campaign cost ?1.38 per vote, Labour spent ?1.29 but the winners

:28:11.:28:13.

were Ukip who spent 73p for each Thanks. If you do it by MPs then the

:28:14.:28:30.

Scottish Nationalists got the biggest bang for their buck.

:28:31.:28:35.

And with us now Labour's John McTernan, who has run numerous,

:28:36.:28:38.

dare I say it, not entirely successful campaigns

:28:39.:28:41.

Would it be fair or unfair to say that it didn't matter how Labour

:28:42.:28:51.

spend money in the last election, it wasn't going to win? I don't agree.

:28:52.:28:56.

If I had my time again in Scotland we would spend all of our money on

:28:57.:29:01.

social media. Labour were routed in Scotland by the SNP on social media

:29:02.:29:06.

and in the UK on social media by the Conservatives. You really think it

:29:07.:29:12.

is that important? Labour spend more in a single advert in the FT than

:29:13.:29:19.

social media in the entire campaign, not many swing voters are reading

:29:20.:29:24.

the FT. We have breaking news on the subject we are talking about, it has

:29:25.:29:29.

been revealed by the Labour Party that the Ed Stone cost ?8,000, more

:29:30.:29:46.

than the pink bus. It was the most ridiculous and disastrous political

:29:47.:29:48.

stunt in my lifetime but for the humour that it has given since then

:29:49.:29:54.

it is a bargain. I tell you, I have had any number of offers from people

:29:55.:29:57.

in the Australian Labour Party wishing to buy it for more than

:29:58.:30:02.

?8,000. It is in south-east London somewhere. They haven't broken it

:30:03.:30:06.

up? It is somewhere in a gigantic yard. That will set everyone off

:30:07.:30:12.

looking for it again if that is the case.

:30:13.:30:20.

?2.4 million played to Linton cross by. Sir Linton. We don't use titles

:30:21.:30:28.

on this programme. Tim. Sorry, Sir Andrew. We don't use titles. Should

:30:29.:30:36.

he have been given a hereditary peerage for stopping Ed Miliband

:30:37.:30:40.

from becoming Prime Minister. It was extraordinarily well-spent money.

:30:41.:30:44.

Linton cross by is a very successful campaigner. Agree with what a lot of

:30:45.:30:50.

John said, the wisest way in which the Conservative Party spent money

:30:51.:30:52.

was on social media. It is interesting in America at the moment

:30:53.:30:57.

watching Fox News and the Wall Street Journal trying to stop the

:30:58.:31:02.

Donald Trump phenomenon and not succeeding, American vote remembers

:31:03.:31:06.

getting an increasing proportion of their news from there and other

:31:07.:31:10.

people and getting a recommendation from a friend a more powerful

:31:11.:31:13.

reading it on a newspaper leader or television show. That's the future

:31:14.:31:17.

for political campaigning. Sometimes money doesn't matter that much. Even

:31:18.:31:23.

the Labour Party's own internal investigation suggested that that

:31:24.:31:33.

Salmond's pocket had quite a big effect on voters in England to get

:31:34.:31:34.

them to go back to the effect on voters in England to get

:31:35.:31:38.

and that cost ?950. That's a effect on voters in England to get

:31:39.:31:43.

tribute, I think, to Crosby. Not just him. The Saatchis. The texter,

:31:44.:31:50.

who is a brilliant pollster, he heard the concerns of people in the

:31:51.:31:54.

focus groups. Turned it into a image. You play back to people their

:31:55.:31:59.

fears and concerns, a great image like a great line goes around the

:32:00.:32:05.

world quickly. Basically, it is the inspiration of finding the right

:32:06.:32:08.

words and then the image that captures it. And sticking at T

:32:09.:32:14.

Labour had too many messages. Linton Crosby's one of his great advantages

:32:15.:32:19.

he brings to a campaign, he sits on people. Politicians want to say new

:32:20.:32:22.

things to people like you Andrew, they want to be interesting. A lot

:32:23.:32:24.

about winning being repettively dull. They were.

:32:25.:32:32.

Long-term economic plan. The 2000 election, American election, the

:32:33.:32:37.

George Bush's first election, I remember being on the campaign and

:32:38.:32:38.

we were all complaining that he was remember being on the campaign and

:32:39.:32:43.

giving the same speech again and again and Carol Rove same and said -

:32:44.:32:47.

he will continue to give this speech until everyone in the country has

:32:48.:32:51.

he will continue to give this speech memorised it. What is your major

:32:52.:32:55.

take away from Labour on what to learn? Labour had less money than

:32:56.:32:58.

the Conservatives, not huge but still a measurable amount less. What

:32:59.:33:03.

is the main take away for you You shouldn't fight the last war. In the

:33:04.:33:06.

last election the Labour Party basically spent all its money on

:33:07.:33:11.

troops on the ground, canvassing, believing that that was - that that

:33:12.:33:14.

would get across the swing voters. You have to put your money into

:33:15.:33:17.

really good polling and good communication, disciplined

:33:18.:33:23.

communication. To people where they are. And actually Tim is completely

:33:24.:33:27.

right. A recommendation from a friend is far better than a stranger

:33:28.:33:31.

knocking on your door. I think it is going back to that - how do we

:33:32.:33:35.

persuade other people to listen to us and then to change their minds?

:33:36.:33:37.

Thank you very much. Now, there are few jobs in

:33:38.:33:40.

Government that are as challenging But as Ministers try to settle

:33:41.:33:46.

the Junior Doctors dispute, what does it take to manage one

:33:47.:33:49.

of the biggest budgets in Whitehall and one of the largest

:33:50.:33:53.

workforces on Earth? As well as being held responsible

:33:54.:33:54.

for every health scare and routine Here he is with the second

:33:55.:33:57.

in our series of 'So you want to be Whitehall - the heart of Government.

:33:58.:34:19.

But could you balance the needs of patients with those of doctors,

:34:20.:34:22.

nurses and surgeons and still be responsible for one of the largest

:34:23.:34:28.

employers in the world? So, you want to be Health Secretary? You know you

:34:29.:34:32.

do some things at the start that you probably wouldn't do at the end and

:34:33.:34:36.

you definitely do some things at the end that you wouldn't do at the

:34:37.:34:39.

start. In the Conservative Party there are lots of people who know

:34:40.:34:43.

about defence and foreign affairs. Turned out there were relatively few

:34:44.:34:47.

who knew about health. The BMA had posters of me all over the country

:34:48.:34:52.

attacking me. When I went on holiday nurse has wanted posters for me at

:34:53.:34:56.

the airport asking people to search for the missing minister. The BMA

:34:57.:35:00.

had a great guy who was their lead negotiator. I called him Scargill

:35:01.:35:06.

with a sket scope. -- stethoscope. He was brilliant. I think I'm the

:35:07.:35:10.

first, the only person ever who went into the Department of Health and

:35:11.:35:15.

had a World Health pandemic declared within four days of arriving in the

:35:16.:35:20.

department. Jill Rutter is a former civil servant, now with the

:35:21.:35:24.

Institute for the Government who says whichever party is in charge,

:35:25.:35:28.

the issue of running the Department of health are much the same Being

:35:29.:35:32.

Secretary of State for Health, you have the giant budget, second

:35:33.:35:34.

biggest in Government. You have a small department but you are

:35:35.:35:39.

basically accountable for this really giant organisation called the

:35:40.:35:41.

National Health Service. But you don't run it. So that is the key

:35:42.:35:47.

relationship you have to get right. The second thing is that you are

:35:48.:35:52.

dealing with doctors and nurses, effectively some of the most

:35:53.:35:54.

effective trade unions in the country. They have very high

:35:55.:35:58.

credibility. You are a politician, you have very low credibility. How

:35:59.:36:02.

are you going to deal with them? Just expect all hell let loose. The

:36:03.:36:08.

public, the political class, the media get more worked up about

:36:09.:36:11.

health issues than anything else. Any Secretary of State finds that he

:36:12.:36:17.

or she is embroiled in constant battle with one group or another. It

:36:18.:36:21.

requires a great deal of reform and change to keep up with changing in

:36:22.:36:25.

demands and so on. Every time you want to change something, it is

:36:26.:36:29.

fought bitterly by some interest group or other and the people who

:36:30.:36:34.

are most resistant to change are the general public, who want a better

:36:35.:36:40.

health service but not varied in anyway from that which they are

:36:41.:36:43.

familiar. The fact is that process of change never seems to end. The

:36:44.:36:47.

National Health Service is like continually digging a hole under

:36:48.:36:49.

yourself and you have to continually move forward. It is one of the great

:36:50.:36:54.

challenges, that the success of the NHS, presents it with an

:36:55.:36:57.

ever-greater challenge. And there has always been a price to pay for

:36:58.:37:03.

the Health Secretary. Much so much so, one didn't much like the look of

:37:04.:37:07.

the job. I had done health in opposition. I had opposed Barbara

:37:08.:37:13.

cap castle. -- Barbara cap castle. We had a hairy time. She was having

:37:14.:37:18.

a hairy time. I was in Opposition. She was having a hairy time again

:37:19.:37:23.

with the medical establishment and BMA and had to be rescued almost to

:37:24.:37:29.

her complete horror by Lord Goodman, you saw then, this was a Labour

:37:30.:37:32.

Secretary of State, you saw then how difficult it was to make progress.

:37:33.:37:37.

One of the reasons why, in the health service there had been so

:37:38.:37:41.

many reform programmes, is because most of them, people have been hit

:37:42.:37:47.

hard and pulled back. And they have been half-baked. You know the table

:37:48.:37:52.

is the littered with half-baked reforms. The point was to try and

:37:53.:37:56.

accomplish the baking the whole thing.

:37:57.:38:01.

The opposition to most reforms has come most often over the

:38:02.:38:06.

controversial issue of who else, apart from the NSH can provide

:38:07.:38:10.

services My goodness, Dave Prentis and I used to have ding dong

:38:11.:38:16.

arguments with officials and special advisors sitting there wincing away

:38:17.:38:22.

as we went hammer and tongs. He didn't believe in alternative

:38:23.:38:27.

providers on the NHS. I did. We weren't going to reach agreement.

:38:28.:38:30.

You have a situation in our country, it'll always be like this. That 95%

:38:31.:38:35.

of care is provided by the public sector. It is neuro. If you can

:38:36.:38:42.

bring in private sector players who have expertise, knowledge and

:38:43.:38:46.

capacity and capability who can greet NHS patients for free,

:38:47.:38:50.

according to their needs, not on the be availability to pay, why wouldn't

:38:51.:38:54.

you do that. For Andrew Lansley, those who argued you shouldn't were

:38:55.:39:00.

NHS managers. They had been proposed when Alan Milburn brought it in and

:39:01.:39:04.

Patricia Hewitt legislated to it, and they continued and are probably

:39:05.:39:08.

opposed to it, to this day. But there are many politicians, and

:39:09.:39:12.

people, who sing the same tune, and they are not shy about telling you.

:39:13.:39:16.

If your colleagues in the House, other MPs, are concerned about

:39:17.:39:20.

health in their patch, they will get you. And it is no good saying to

:39:21.:39:25.

them - go and seat guy from NHS England -- see the guy. They expect

:39:26.:39:30.

you to sort it out. I remember a woman once coming to my surgery

:39:31.:39:33.

asking me it write it the Health Secretary on her behalf T I was the

:39:34.:39:36.

Health Secretary. She didn't realise. -- I said - yes, of course,

:39:37.:39:41.

I should be able to do that in the next couple of days. For one

:39:42.:39:44.

Secretary of State, the department was more than just treating the

:39:45.:39:50.

sick. Day 1, Department of Health, I said to the masked ranks of the

:39:51.:39:53.

senior people in the Department of Health - from now on physical

:39:54.:39:57.

activity is going to be the core business of this department and I

:39:58.:40:00.

think it is fair to say a tumbleweed went across the table. They were

:40:01.:40:06.

thinking - no, that's DCMS. I knew the Department of health culture was

:40:07.:40:12.

- oh, yes, we like buying pills and Sir rings and, you know, scalpels,

:40:13.:40:18.

and aprons but we don't invest in running machines or, you know,

:40:19.:40:22.

because that's the DH kind of culture, actually. It is - we'll

:40:23.:40:26.

pick up the pieces when you are ill. It truly isn't, to be fair, a

:40:27.:40:29.

Department of Health. You know, promoting health.

:40:30.:40:34.

Perhaps the largest reform of the NHS and most controversial was

:40:35.:40:38.

brought in in 2010 and many people said it had been sprung on the NHS,

:40:39.:40:44.

breaking a promise Somebody and I have not to this day yet, found

:40:45.:40:48.

somebody who will own up to t put into the coalition programme -- up

:40:49.:40:53.

to it, a reference to no more topdown reorganisation, on the basis

:40:54.:40:56.

that the Prime Minister said it in 2006, therefore it must be true in

:40:57.:41:01.

2010. Well, in between we had the manifesto. It wasn't in the

:41:02.:41:04.

Conservative manifesto. Those words didn't appear. They didn't apear in

:41:05.:41:10.

the Liberal Democrat manifesto. Somebody thought theyed should be in

:41:11.:41:15.

the coalition programme, notwithstanding the fact they were

:41:16.:41:23.

neither not in either manifesto. So that simple fact, regardless of me,

:41:24.:41:28.

was very damaging. As today's Health Secretary, junior doctors and

:41:29.:41:31.

patients know, right now, the job of providing hale in this country is

:41:32.:41:35.

not easy at the frontline. -- providing health. But it doesn't

:41:36.:41:40.

Well us is clear who used to be Whitehall.

:41:41.:41:53.

Well us is clear who used to be Chair of the royal College of GPs.

:41:54.:41:57.

It is such an enormous job. It seems impossible to get it right. It is an

:41:58.:42:02.

enormous job. I would be interested in whether those Secretary of

:42:03.:42:05.

States, that you had in that programme, got together and asked

:42:06.:42:09.

themselves why many of them got it so wrong. It is as if, with due

:42:10.:42:13.

respect, they get the portfolio of health, it is like a new train set,

:42:14.:42:17.

they take it out and play around with it and then what they then do,

:42:18.:42:22.

is use another analogy, they plant a plant, dig it up a few weeks' later

:42:23.:42:27.

to see how it is getting on. Maybe with such a complex organisation,

:42:28.:42:30.

such as the NHS, who deals with people who are sick and dying, maybe

:42:31.:42:36.

it beholds to them just to let evolutionary process take its place,

:42:37.:42:40.

rather than think we have this enormous revolution and everything

:42:41.:42:42.

is going to be all right. Do you admit, then, on the side of

:42:43.:42:48.

evolution, you and others, the BMA have sometimes be been a block and

:42:49.:42:51.

obstacle to reform and change? Well, with respect to myself, I think many

:42:52.:42:57.

would now say that I was absolutely right with my opposition and my

:42:58.:43:01.

vocal opposition that the Royal College of GPs had around the 2012

:43:02.:43:10.

NHS Act and also many of the other policies that the BMA have spoken

:43:11.:43:18.

publicly about, the private sprieders, and Ken Clarke's

:43:19.:43:21.

initiative that has brought in. So the BMA does not oppose just for

:43:22.:43:25.

opposition sake. It is there to represent doctors but it also

:43:26.:43:28.

represents patients and funnelledmentally

:43:29.:43:32.

represents patients and right. It is not really her or the

:43:33.:43:36.

group she represented at the time, or the BMA's fault there are

:43:37.:43:40.

politicians like Andrew Lansley, for example, introducing what they saw

:43:41.:43:44.

as an unnecessary and damaging topdown reorganisation. Yes, but if

:43:45.:43:47.

they really believe that, of course they should oppose a reform that

:43:48.:43:50.

they think is not in the interests of the health service. The overall

:43:51.:43:56.

thrust, I find a lot of the health reforms that have taken place under

:43:57.:44:00.

both Labour and Conservative confusing, but the general thrust

:44:01.:44:03.

has been to give more power to professionals. I think that's the

:44:04.:44:07.

general belief, the general aim of the Lansley reforms and it is what

:44:08.:44:11.

Alan Milburn did when he was Health Secretary. So it would be wrong to

:44:12.:44:14.

get the impression that politicians are always trying to tinker in the

:44:15.:44:17.

detail. They have done too many reorganisations, that's true.

:44:18.:44:20.

detail. They have done too many think the Lansley reforms were

:44:21.:44:24.

regrettable. I don't think they got at the heart of why

:44:25.:44:27.

regrettable. I don't think they got facing financial pressures but the

:44:28.:44:31.

thrust with foundation hospitals and more power for GP purchasing is

:44:32.:44:35.

pushing #130b89 towards the professionals we can trust. The

:44:36.:44:38.

problem there, I think it was Ken Clarke, I can't remember, who said -

:44:39.:44:43.

politicians pulled back sometimes for major change so it

:44:44.:44:47.

politicians pulled back sometimes as being tinkering at the edges

:44:48.:44:50.

because of the resistance from health unions, the college of GPs or

:44:51.:44:53.

If I ask you to pull down your house BMA.

:44:54.:45:00.

If I ask you to pull down your house every two years because it is in

:45:01.:45:04.

your best interests and rebuild it every two years you would think I

:45:05.:45:09.

was mad. What we need now, what we said is that we need stability and

:45:10.:45:13.

we need to make sure we make the NHS safe, going through its biggest

:45:14.:45:18.

crisis for decades at the moment and probably does need ironically some

:45:19.:45:22.

reorganisation at this stage. But I don't think we can blame the BMA, an

:45:23.:45:28.

organisation that has been there for 200 years nearly, supporting health

:45:29.:45:34.

care and since the onset of the NHS supporting the NHS. That is rather

:45:35.:45:39.

invidious. But on their side, the public do have this glorified view

:45:40.:45:51.

of doctors and nurses, less than 30 years ago. Alan Johnson described

:45:52.:45:55.

one commentator as Scargill with a stethoscope. Was that fair? I don't

:45:56.:46:02.

know specifically but there are examples now with the junior doctors

:46:03.:46:05.

dispute where some of the people involved in the BMA are also members

:46:06.:46:10.

of the Labour Party. That doesn't help the BMA's case when they allow

:46:11.:46:16.

people who have other agendas to pollute their message. That is so

:46:17.:46:21.

unfair, we have this McCarthy era where we are looking for Reds under

:46:22.:46:30.

our hospital beds. You can't deny that? I am an NHS activist and

:46:31.:46:36.

Labour speaks to protecting the NHS. As far as my political views, that

:46:37.:46:42.

is what I'm interested in, the NHS. Our junior doctors are some of the

:46:43.:46:46.

most obedient and hard-working individuals we have in society, far

:46:47.:46:50.

from being militants. We should be looking at them as those that want

:46:51.:46:55.

to care for us. Who was sure favourite Health Secretary? Steven

:46:56.:46:57.

Donnelly. -- Now, around this time next

:46:58.:47:05.

year the next President of the United States will take

:47:06.:47:07.

office. But between now and then,

:47:08.:47:09.

the country will embark on a long, complicated and unique democratic

:47:10.:47:12.

process to determine Right now, it's anyone's guess,

:47:13.:47:13.

since the field of candidates in both major parties

:47:14.:47:19.

is still very large. # Living in America. Donald Trump is

:47:20.:47:39.

calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the

:47:40.:47:40.

United States. And I have decided I'm a candidate

:47:41.:47:53.

for president of the United States of America. I will be the youngest

:47:54.:47:59.

woman president in the history of the United States. When I am

:48:00.:48:04.

president we are going to win the war on Isis and if we capture any of

:48:05.:48:09.

them alive they are getting a one-way ticket to Guantanamo Bay,

:48:10.:48:14.

Cuba. I would not advocate putting a Muslim in charge of this nation.

:48:15.:48:24.

I do not like them, I do not like Greenock is an ham. -- green eggs

:48:25.:48:40.

and Ham. Our government belongs to all of us, not just a handful of

:48:41.:48:47.

billionaires. Are you ready for a commander-in-chief who will kick

:48:48.:48:58.

Isis's... That was American television news.

:48:59.:48:59.

And with us now from our Oxford Studio, William Barnard,

:49:00.:49:01.

who's the UK Chair of Deomcrats Abroad.

:49:02.:49:04.

You could argue that the Republicans have too many candidates in the

:49:05.:49:18.

primary election system, do the Democrats have too few? Just a

:49:19.:49:22.

correction, I am the former chair. Bernie Sanders is there on the

:49:23.:49:26.

Democratic side and although he is moving up he is seen as running

:49:27.:49:31.

behind. There is some energy there on the Republican side. It is true

:49:32.:49:37.

that the establishment track the candidate is running on that track

:49:38.:49:41.

are swinging the vote so cleanly and neatly that Trump is at the top of

:49:42.:49:49.

the heap. Are you surprised Bernie Sanders, the main challenger to

:49:50.:49:53.

Hillary Clinton, has had a second wind and could do well in Iowa and

:49:54.:49:59.

New Hampshire? Not really. The primary as we get closer to the

:50:00.:50:06.

date. They are unique, times when voters know they are not choosing

:50:07.:50:10.

the person to hold office but choosing people to send a message

:50:11.:50:14.

sometimes. There is a great deal of frustration and anxiety towards the

:50:15.:50:21.

national system in the United States, and Bernie Sanders is

:50:22.:50:24.

representing that. A number of Republicans are in fact supporting

:50:25.:50:27.

Donald Trump. I would make the point that most people in the UK don't

:50:28.:50:31.

realise that American citizens who live in the UK can vote on super

:50:32.:50:41.

Jews they. -- super Tuesday. I will come back to that in a minute. If

:50:42.:50:46.

the campaign was to be derailed for Hillary Clinton, perhaps because of

:50:47.:50:50.

the increasing scandal about e-mails, or something just comes to

:50:51.:50:55.

blow her out of the water in this way, what with the Democratic

:50:56.:50:58.

establishment do? I wish you may would not want to go into the

:50:59.:51:01.

election with Bernie Sanders as their candidate? The Democratic

:51:02.:51:07.

establishment so-called does not really run the party, it is the

:51:08.:51:11.

voters in the primary 's who control the delegation, and it will be

:51:12.:51:23.

decided in primarys to come. The primary after New Hampshire tends to

:51:24.:51:28.

favour the Clinton candidacy but we will have to wait and see. The GOP

:51:29.:51:34.

establishment is waiting to work out who is the most likely candidate to

:51:35.:51:42.

see off Donald Trump or even Mr Cruz. Who is it likely to be? Marco

:51:43.:51:50.

Rubio is a senator from Florida, he is Cuban. His campaign has not

:51:51.:51:55.

caught fire and in New Hampshire he needs to be the second-place

:51:56.:51:59.

candidate to Donald Trump if Trump wins in New Hampshire. You have

:52:00.:52:04.

other leading Republicans and moderates like John Casey from Ohio,

:52:05.:52:08.

even Jeb Bush is coming back a little bit. Not from much? Yes, a

:52:09.:52:14.

low base, but they are all around ten points. It is the establishment

:52:15.:52:19.

track that is giving Donald Trump the advantage that he has at the

:52:20.:52:24.

moment. Who would the Democrats least like to see as the Republican

:52:25.:52:30.

nominee? I suspect they think curiously Rubio or John Casey would

:52:31.:52:37.

be a serious contender. There is still the feeling that the American

:52:38.:52:40.

people as they enter the fall and get closer to the election and

:52:41.:52:43.

realise the gravity of their choice, they will go away from a bluster rat

:52:44.:52:55.

like Trump. Cruz is very ideological. He will be feared by a

:52:56.:53:03.

good number. In terms of difficulty of winning, Rubio, probably, but

:53:04.:53:10.

that is for the Republicans to decide. Finally, will we get to know

:53:11.:53:16.

when the Democrats in the UK, the registered Democrats get to vote on

:53:17.:53:19.

super Tuesday, will we get to know what the split on the vote was? You

:53:20.:53:24.

will indeed, there will be partial returns because the votes counted on

:53:25.:53:29.

March the 1st and fifth in London and elsewhere in Edinburgh and

:53:30.:53:32.

Cambridge and St Andrews, those will be cast by mail and e-mail will not

:53:33.:53:43.

be available but you will know the returns from the voting centre.

:53:44.:53:45.

Thank you for joining us. One of our cameramen went behind the

:53:46.:53:59.

scenes to see what the Metropolitan Police have up their sleeves, this

:54:00.:54:03.

fine body of 50-year-olds, the average age, are the first of the

:54:04.:54:09.

new traffic wardens to keep traffic flowing. They have finished their

:54:10.:54:13.

basic training. How can we prevent increasing traffic causing a jam?

:54:14.:54:19.

Parking metres in the City of Westminster have done something but

:54:20.:54:22.

there are still scores of streets being turned into an official car

:54:23.:54:27.

parks. You have to park somewhere. All right, but not in the wrong

:54:28.:54:32.

places say Scotland Yard. From now on traffic wardens will see the

:54:33.:54:35.

rules are observed as well as informing motorists where they can

:54:36.:54:41.

park and coming down on those who do so in forbidden spots. It will be

:54:42.:54:45.

done courteously, no slanging matches. Just say, what awful

:54:46.:54:48.

weather we're having, and fine him ?2. Take his number, out with the

:54:49.:54:57.

fine blog, and when the driver comes back he must send the money by post.

:54:58.:55:04.

Other offences carry a fine of ?2. You know that was a long time ago,

:55:05.:55:07.

?2! Yes, the humble traffic warden,

:55:08.:55:08.

who 55 years ago issued But that's not all they did,

:55:09.:55:10.

they were also supposed to help the public

:55:11.:55:14.

find parking places. Only 18 remain today,

:55:15.:55:16.

but yesterday the Home Secretary, Theresa May, announced

:55:17.:55:20.

she was phasing them out in favour Well, with us to lament

:55:21.:55:22.

their demise, the motoring Is this a sad day or something to

:55:23.:55:35.

celebrate? It's probably a sad day, I never thought I would say this but

:55:36.:55:38.

they had legitimacy and accountability because they were

:55:39.:55:42.

employed by the police and trained to keep traffic flowing. When it was

:55:43.:55:47.

decriminalised and handed to local councils in the 90s we have seen

:55:48.:55:54.

parking revenue go up and up. From 2013-14 it was up by 12%, ?700

:55:55.:56:00.

million, parking profit for councils. That means that consumers,

:56:01.:56:04.

and I will call them consumers because they are, have spent ?1

:56:05.:56:09.

billion a year on parking fines that is not spent on the local economy

:56:10.:56:14.

and that is the issue. We all detest parking regulations, they are too

:56:15.:56:19.

Draconian. The point is that this enforcement is taking money out of

:56:20.:56:21.

the economy. You had a more enforcement is taking money out of

:56:22.:56:25.

view because of their connection to the police rather than the council?

:56:26.:56:33.

It seems to be about profit. As it said, you have the park somewhere

:56:34.:56:37.

and you must do it legally. Council tax has been frozen year after year

:56:38.:56:40.

by most councils in the country and this is one of the ways like

:56:41.:56:45.

planning applications, they have found stealthy ways of getting money

:56:46.:56:48.

from people that they don't get from the usual place. It is stopping the

:56:49.:56:50.

high Street functioning and the usual place. It is stopping the

:56:51.:56:55.

people buying things in local shops and they shop online. Let's go back

:56:56.:56:59.

to the idea of the traffic warden as such. Did it make a difference that

:57:00.:57:05.

they were billed as courteous and friendly? Many people do find civil

:57:06.:57:09.

enforcement officers lacking a bit of charm. They had an ability to

:57:10.:57:13.

reason with you and they were approachable and more friendly

:57:14.:57:20.

because they were accountable. This lot and everybody seems to have the

:57:21.:57:22.

same lament, are less than courteous and open to reason. Have you ever

:57:23.:57:27.

had a fight with a traffic warden? I don't drive which is a terrible

:57:28.:57:33.

thing to admit here! You can't say anything in this discussion. I bet

:57:34.:57:38.

you have had fights. Arguments, not flights. I did not mean fisticuffs.

:57:39.:57:47.

I said to want outside my local school -- I said to want outside my

:57:48.:57:51.

local school... You have been antagonising this traffic warden,

:57:52.:57:56.

said the police. It is not a job I would like. You become the least

:57:57.:58:01.

popular person. These people are just doing their job. And we are

:58:02.:58:06.

just trying to go to work and school and to the doctors and hospital.

:58:07.:58:11.

Let's make it easier. Make them a little less implacable and a little

:58:12.:58:15.

less inflexible. Why are there 18 left? They are literally a hangover.

:58:16.:58:27.

I thought they had gone. So did I. It is always best to leave

:58:28.:58:29.

altercations to 1's driver! The one o'clock news is starting

:58:30.:58:36.

over on BBC One now. I'll be back at 11.45 this

:58:37.:58:42.

evening for This Week, where I'll be joined

:58:43.:58:44.

by Michael Portillo, Labour MP Liz Kendall,

:58:45.:58:46.

Yasmin Alibhai-Brown and American He is a director of this

:58:47.:58:57.

Oscar-nominated movie The Big Short. I will be back tomorrow.

:58:58.:59:10.

Celebrate a country 4,000 years in the making.

:59:11.:59:12.

Tim Montgomerie from The Times joins Andrew Neil and Jo Coburn throughout the programme. They take a look at the implications of the fall in the markets, and analyse what the parties spent their money on during the general election campaign with former Labour strategist John McTernan. They also discuss the runners and riders in the US Presidential race, and speak to motoring journalist Quentin Wilson on the news that traffic wardens could be on the way out.


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