12/02/2016 Daily Politics


12/02/2016

Andrew Neil with the latest political news and debate from Westminster. Includes a look at turmoil in the financial markets. Andrew is joined by Anne McElvoy and Kelvin MacKenzie.


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17 nations broker a cessation of hostilities in Syria.

:00:38.:00:44.

Certain military action is meant to stop by next weekend.

:00:45.:00:47.

But the Russians reserve the right to carry on bombing

:00:48.:00:53.

and allied air-strikes against ISIS will continue.

:00:54.:00:55.

Equalities Minister Nicky Morgan announces plans to publish league

:00:56.:01:00.

tables of the pay gap between men and women employed by

:01:01.:01:03.

European stocks have rallied this morning, but after a week of global

:01:04.:01:15.

What does it mean for the economy here and abroad?

:01:16.:01:19.

And we continue our series profiling the great offices of states,

:01:20.:01:22.

as Giles finds out what it takes to be the Secretary of State ...

:01:23.:01:25.

No Prime Minister is going to forget the responsibilities of defence. And

:01:26.:01:42.

no Defence Secretary should be naive enough to think that you are

:01:43.:01:43.

operating out there on your own. All that in the next hour,

:01:44.:01:50.

and with us for the duration former editor of the Sun, Kelvin MacKenzie

:01:51.:01:54.

and Anne McElvoy of the Economist. First, the news that world powers

:01:55.:02:00.

have agreed a nationwide "cessation of hostilities" in Syria to begin

:02:01.:02:05.

next weekend, after The agreement allows for continued

:02:06.:02:07.

allied air-strikes against islamic State fighters and Russia insists it

:02:08.:02:26.

will still bomb terrorists. The Syrian government has said it's

:02:27.:02:32.

still "cloudy" whether the agreement will trigger a new

:02:33.:02:34.

round of peace talks. They stalled in Geneva earlier this

:02:35.:02:41.

month. The Syrian army, backed

:02:42.:02:43.

by Russian air strikes, is still advancing

:02:44.:02:45.

in Aleppo province. Here's US Secretary of State,

:02:46.:02:53.

a somewhat wary John Kerry. We have agreed to implement a

:02:54.:03:08.

nationwide cessation of hostilities to begin in a target of one week's

:03:09.:03:15.

time. That is ambitious, but everyone is determined to move as

:03:16.:03:19.

rapidly as possible to try to achieve this. This will apply to any

:03:20.:03:25.

and all parties in Syria, with the exception of the terrorist

:03:26.:03:31.

organisations Daesh and Almers row. If you listen to what Mr Kerry said

:03:32.:03:41.

and what Philip Hammond said, they are clearly tentative. They have

:03:42.:03:46.

done a deal, but it is not clear that it will take off. I'm a bit

:03:47.:03:51.

cynical about this deal. I think it is an attempt by John Kerry and the

:03:52.:03:55.

British government to get back involved in a situation in Syria

:03:56.:03:59.

where, frankly, they left the door open for the Russians to take the

:04:00.:04:02.

leading role and we have already heard Moscow say today in clear

:04:03.:04:06.

terms that they do not see this as an instruction to stop bombing. What

:04:07.:04:13.

they describe as IS targets which seems to range widely for targeting

:04:14.:04:17.

a terror group. They don't seem to be bombing IS at all. It is a

:04:18.:04:22.

declaration of interest to get together around a table and that

:04:23.:04:25.

hasn't happened seriously on Syria for a long time but the Russians

:04:26.:04:28.

have the momentum there and it rather looks as though the West is

:04:29.:04:33.

playing catch up. The interesting thing although the humanitarian aid

:04:34.:04:37.

is meant to get in this weekend, the news is concentrating on Aleppo.

:04:38.:04:43.

There are 12 towns under siege, but the ceasefire, or cessation of

:04:44.:04:48.

hostilities does not begin until the following week giving the Russian

:04:49.:04:53.

forces another week. The reality is we should welcome anything with the

:04:54.:04:57.

word piece involved in it. Whether this turns out to be anything or not

:04:58.:05:01.

is not the point, it's the beginning of something and, by the way there

:05:02.:05:06.

will be no change in a week's time. Vladimir Putin doesn't care what

:05:07.:05:10.

anybody thinks about anything and Iran doesn't care and Isis doesn't

:05:11.:05:17.

care, however the majors of our world, they want peace there.

:05:18.:05:20.

Cameron will be praying for peace because if there is peace then maybe

:05:21.:05:24.

the migration issue doesn't get worse. I suspect it won't change

:05:25.:05:31.

very much. I am even more bearish than Kelvin. This is not peace in

:05:32.:05:40.

any meaningful sense. Peace in our time? It is Munich. The battle for

:05:41.:05:45.

Aleppo is now crucial. And when the president Assad forces retake that,

:05:46.:05:49.

that will show that a lot of it has been for nothing. He will still be

:05:50.:05:53.

there and backed by the Russians and I think the migration crisis, there

:05:54.:05:58.

are not that many more people to flood out of Syria who have not

:05:59.:06:03.

gone. There are 600,000 in Aleppo. We will see an emptying of Aleppo

:06:04.:06:06.

and the migration crisis has a way to go. The agreement does not

:06:07.:06:10.

mention the status of Mr Assad at all. Philip Hammond is on the Andrew

:06:11.:06:20.

Marr Show on Sunday and he will be talking about Syria and we will

:06:21.:06:24.

follow up what he has to say on the Sunday politics.

:06:25.:06:26.

It's all about a call by Lib Dem leader Tim Farron to

:06:27.:06:30.

But what is it he'd like to be made legal?

:06:31.:06:35.

b) Using a hoverboard on the pavement?

:06:36.:06:41.

At the end of the show, Anne and Kelvin will give us

:06:42.:06:49.

If they don't, because it is so easy, they will be fired.

:06:50.:06:57.

The Women and Equalities Minister Nicky Morgan has announced plans

:06:58.:06:59.

today for new league tables that will highlight the gender pay gap

:07:00.:07:02.

in companies with more than 250 employees.

:07:03.:07:06.

The new regulations are expected to affect about 8,000

:07:07.:07:08.

employers across the UK, who will also have to publish

:07:09.:07:11.

their company's gender pay gap on their website.

:07:12.:07:15.

Businesses will have to start compiling the information about pay

:07:16.:07:19.

differences from April 2017 - 12 months before the first

:07:20.:07:21.

Here's Nicky Morgan talking about what effects the new

:07:22.:07:27.

One is that companies will hopefully, and

:07:28.:07:35.

we expect them from the response we have had, to think a lot harder

:07:36.:07:38.

about where women are in their workforce, how

:07:39.:07:41.

they are distributed and what they are being paid.

:07:42.:07:44.

But I think it will also drive applications to work in certain

:07:45.:07:47.

organisations, because I think that women will look and see,

:07:48.:07:53.

what is the gender pay gap in this organisation?

:07:54.:07:55.

We've been joined by Kate Andrews from the Adam Smith Institute.

:07:56.:08:05.

And we did ask for an interview with Nicky Morgan or another

:08:06.:08:08.

government minister on this issue, but none was available.

:08:09.:08:10.

Instead, they suggested we talk to the Conservative backbencher

:08:11.:08:12.

Mims Davies who is a member Women and Equalities Committee in

:08:13.:08:15.

So we did, and she joins us from Southampton welcome

:08:16.:08:19.

If it is such a good idea, why does it take so long to implement? Isn't

:08:20.:08:35.

that complicated. I think it is complicated that the equality needs

:08:36.:08:39.

to be what women are looking for. There are lots of factors affecting

:08:40.:08:44.

women. I am asking why it will take so long to simply compile the data.

:08:45.:08:48.

The companies already have the pay data of their employees. You could

:08:49.:08:53.

do it in a month. There are some people trailblazing on this, but

:08:54.:08:58.

some people are putting it in there too difficult box, so it's right

:08:59.:09:00.

that the government holds their feet to the fire. You are not holding

:09:01.:09:04.

their feet to the fire, you are saying you don't have to do it until

:09:05.:09:08.

2018. Why don't you tell them to do it by September? Most companies have

:09:09.:09:13.

a fair idea of where they are on this and it is right that we give

:09:14.:09:17.

companies the time to look at their procedures. Certainly the women and

:09:18.:09:22.

equality is select committee, there are some people who find it very

:09:23.:09:25.

easy and they are attracting the right wing into the workforce. Some

:09:26.:09:31.

people think it is not important to them -- the right women. As

:09:32.:09:34.

government we have to explain why it's important for men and women and

:09:35.:09:39.

the public sector and private sector to get this right. I am a mother of

:09:40.:09:43.

two daughters and I want merit and ability to come through in people

:09:44.:09:48.

succeeding. I know the case for doing it, I'm just trying to get you

:09:49.:09:52.

to address the time it is taking. Is it an attempt to name and shame? On

:09:53.:09:58.

the select committee which started this term in Parliament, we have

:09:59.:10:04.

been highlighting areas where people feel they are not doing the right

:10:05.:10:08.

work and bringing them into a Parliament and explaining it. There

:10:09.:10:12.

are people who think it doesn't go far enough and there are people who

:10:13.:10:15.

think there is no need to do it. Give us an example of a company that

:10:16.:10:20.

does well in the area and a company doing badly? Off the top of my head

:10:21.:10:24.

I can't think of anyone very bad, but there are certain sectors where

:10:25.:10:28.

it is a little bit more shady to get in to see what they are doing. You

:10:29.:10:33.

cannot give me a company doing badly in an area in which you specialise?

:10:34.:10:37.

You cannot name a company that is not doing well? I would below is to

:10:38.:10:43.

point out one person in this. I'm not asking for a person, I'm asking

:10:44.:10:48.

for company. I would below is to do that directly, because it is

:10:49.:10:53.

important we get everybody on the same page which is why the

:10:54.:10:55.

government is giving time for people to consider it. You are going to be

:10:56.:11:00.

able to make a public by 2018 anyway, so

:11:01.:11:02.

able to make a public by 2018 identify them. If you have done some

:11:03.:11:06.

work now, I'm asking for an example of where they are not doing so well.

:11:07.:11:12.

In terms of trailblazers, I know understand young's name came up in

:11:13.:11:15.

the committee when we heard from Nicky Morgan and this is the reason

:11:16.:11:20.

that the government -- Ernst and Young. Some companies are doing it

:11:21.:11:26.

and they are seeing the value. How annoyed are you with what companies

:11:27.:11:31.

are doing on the gender pay gap? We want equality in the workplace. We

:11:32.:11:35.

take that for granted. What is wrong with publishing a list? The problem

:11:36.:11:40.

is the regulations the government set out have created manipulated

:11:41.:11:45.

statistics that the businesses will put on their website. We submitted

:11:46.:11:49.

to the consultation saying, if you want to look at the way companies

:11:50.:11:51.

break down want to look at the way companies

:11:52.:11:56.

have to have control jobs like for like, control people doing the same

:11:57.:12:00.

job and control the hours worked. What the government has put forward

:12:01.:12:03.

is the worst way one could possibly try to come up with the gender pay

:12:04.:12:07.

gap issue. Just looking at the medium and mean of female employees

:12:08.:12:13.

and male employees will compare the chief executive of the receptionist

:12:14.:12:18.

and people working in marketing, to resources, to engineering. We have

:12:19.:12:21.

no idea if the men and women in those sectors should be getting paid

:12:22.:12:24.

the same because they have different jobs. What do you say to that? There

:12:25.:12:30.

are arguments that this is not detailed enough and I understand it,

:12:31.:12:34.

but the government acting on this is very important. Not if they will

:12:35.:12:39.

come up with a bad number. It's not that it's not detailed enough, it's

:12:40.:12:43.

that the numbers will produce very manipulated statistics that people

:12:44.:12:46.

will take for granted and use all the time. It will further the idea

:12:47.:12:51.

that week -- women are victimised in the workplace and it doesn't help

:12:52.:12:55.

Sally in marketing find out if she's being paid unfairly compared to

:12:56.:13:03.

mark. It doesn't help women being sexist Lee treated in the workplace.

:13:04.:13:08.

We heard evidence in the committee that it was important that if you

:13:09.:13:12.

were in marketing or leadership, you had the same opportunities to

:13:13.:13:15.

progress in a company. If it is out there how much people are being paid

:13:16.:13:19.

and how the company handles men and women, we will see real progress for

:13:20.:13:26.

women and the parity. And the progress that the Prime Minister was

:13:27.:13:29.

talking about at his conference speech. It is right we are doing it.

:13:30.:13:33.

I understand some people feel it's not detailed enough but I think by

:13:34.:13:37.

2018 people will be shining a light on this and this is what the

:13:38.:13:41.

government wants. How bad is the gender pay gap? My apologies, I was

:13:42.:13:48.

asking Kate Andrews but I will come to you as well. Here in the UK if

:13:49.:13:53.

you are a woman between the ages of 22 and 40 you are earning equal or

:13:54.:13:58.

slightly more. So it is actually against men in that group? Once you

:13:59.:14:04.

hit 40 drops. It is no surprise that this normally has to do with taking

:14:05.:14:08.

time off to raise children. There is no pay gap between men and women in

:14:09.:14:11.

the UK, there is a mother would pay gap between mothers and non-mothers.

:14:12.:14:15.

We should talk about that. We should be focusing on that, but forcing

:14:16.:14:22.

employers to publish statistics like this is just attacking employers who

:14:23.:14:26.

actually, on average, if women are as experienced as men and working

:14:27.:14:29.

the same amount of hours, employers like to promote women and pay them

:14:30.:14:33.

more, so the real issue is whether or not women take that time of work.

:14:34.:14:39.

Maybe the husband should be staying home a bit more. These are the

:14:40.:14:44.

conversations we should have. Kelvin MacKenzie, you are nodding in

:14:45.:14:49.

agreement. I've been an employer for 35 years, and the idea that you give

:14:50.:14:54.

somebody more less money based on the agenda is absolutely absurd.

:14:55.:14:58.

Mind you, I've only been in the media, so perhaps that is a

:14:59.:15:02.

different kind of industry from the norm. The truth about the matter

:15:03.:15:08.

today, if I looked at my daughter, an English teacher, my stepdaughter

:15:09.:15:12.

in the insurance business, the toughest and cleverest people I

:15:13.:15:15.

know. The idea that a male manager would hold them back is ludicrous.

:15:16.:15:22.

And honestly, I agree with your point, I actually do believe that

:15:23.:15:26.

men actually want to promote women even at the expense of their male

:15:27.:15:28.

employees. It has completely turned. Dream on, Kelvin, really! Actually,

:15:29.:15:41.

the data we have tells a different story. Young women, yes, are doing

:15:42.:15:47.

really well. There is a falloff just before 40 years of age. By the time

:15:48.:15:51.

you get into your 40s, and certainly in your 50s, as a woman, the pay gap

:15:52.:15:57.

has gone wider. To say this is just because women have taken time out,

:15:58.:16:01.

for me, is not to look at the question is, how are women being

:16:02.:16:04.

rewarded if they work part-time, and how do they get back up the tree

:16:05.:16:10.

again? To take young women and say, this is going to continue on a line

:16:11.:16:14.

going upwards is not what the data shows, not in America and not here.

:16:15.:16:18.

If for instance you have a very modestly paid guest here, now, if I

:16:19.:16:26.

were to be a presenter, or indeed Andrew's editor, a job to which

:16:27.:16:33.

everyone aspires, when I have come back into the workplace, then

:16:34.:16:36.

clearly I am not going to be in the gender pay gap in the same way. So

:16:37.:16:39.

it is often about what women get the chance to do when they come back

:16:40.:16:45.

into the workforce after motherhood. I completely agree. That is the

:16:46.:16:49.

fundamental problem. It is lifestyle choices which many women want to

:16:50.:16:54.

make, which mean they take time off for their career and do not have the

:16:55.:16:57.

same opportunities when they come back. I think a lot of women are

:16:58.:17:01.

pressured into making those choices and they do not feel they have the

:17:02.:17:06.

flexibility. It is not an issue for the government. Let me give the

:17:07.:17:13.

final word to Mims Davies. Absolutely we are looking at all of

:17:14.:17:19.

that - part-time working, agile working and the fact that women over

:17:20.:17:24.

40 are more penalised. So, this is a package of measures which the

:17:25.:17:27.

government is taking and recognising. Absolutely, I do think

:17:28.:17:30.

men want to promote women. Real equality would be the school run,

:17:31.:17:37.

dads at the plays, dads able to take time off to look after children as

:17:38.:17:41.

well. That is real equality. I am delighted that business is so much

:17:42.:17:46.

behind this as well. There are some great examples out there. We can do

:17:47.:17:56.

more! Big news has been breaking in the media world. The Independent and

:17:57.:18:02.

the Independent on Sunday are to close as print titles. The baby

:18:03.:18:10.

sister, i, is being bought by a big regional newspaper company, Johnson

:18:11.:18:15.

press, which owns the Yorkshire Post in Leeds and The Scotsman in

:18:16.:18:20.

Edinburgh. But as print publications, the Independent and

:18:21.:18:25.

the Independent on Sunday are too close. Let me get the reaction of

:18:26.:18:28.

two distinguished journalists with me now. Well, it will not be any sad

:18:29.:18:36.

, to be honest. We have a fantastic array of print products every

:18:37.:18:40.

morning. The i was not one of them. And the independent has not been one

:18:41.:18:44.

of them for the last 10-15 years. Can they survive as digital

:18:45.:18:46.

publications only? Definitely not. Can they survive as digital

:18:47.:18:52.

It is very expensive actually to produce good digital news products.

:18:53.:18:57.

It is not a good online offering, and there will be no users, and

:18:58.:19:01.

therefore no advertisers. I'm afraid it is good night. I am a bit more

:19:02.:19:06.

sympathetic, partly because I used to work for the independent. It is

:19:07.:19:10.

all my fault! But it did feel a gap in terms of liberal thinking, which

:19:11.:19:14.

was not as far to the left as the Guardian. More centre-left. It

:19:15.:19:20.

became so, but actually, when it was founded, it was former City

:19:21.:19:24.

journalists... Quite centrist. Something which is missing in our

:19:25.:19:29.

debate, it is a kind of free-market liberalism. The further left it has

:19:30.:19:33.

gone, the further it has collapsed. There may be some truth in that. The

:19:34.:19:38.

i however was cheaper and aimed at young readers. It took the content

:19:39.:19:45.

of The Independent. It did. Johnson press have not said they would do

:19:46.:19:50.

that as a digital product. No, they are buying it as a paper. At how

:19:51.:19:54.

will they fill it with content? Well, they have explained. They're

:19:55.:19:59.

going to use their regional journalists, which is perfectly all

:20:00.:20:03.

right, but there is no role for the i with a load of stories about

:20:04.:20:06.

Walsall and Preston and various other places. I'm afraid I do not

:20:07.:20:14.

agree with the CEO of Johnson press. I think there is a question mark

:20:15.:20:17.

about whether he survives with that 24 million gone. It is the Russians

:20:18.:20:23.

who own these papers. They have sold the i, they are closing the print

:20:24.:20:30.

versions of the Independent and the Independent on Sunday. So what

:20:31.:20:33.

happens to the London standard? They were spreading the costs all over.

:20:34.:20:38.

Would that not make the it extended an economic? I would not have

:20:39.:20:44.

thought so, although I should declare that I do write a column in

:20:45.:20:48.

the Evening Standard. The problem is that they were spread bit too thin,

:20:49.:20:52.

and they had also invested in this television station, London Live. I

:20:53.:20:57.

would have thought they seem to be committed to the standard. They have

:20:58.:21:02.

got the losses down. The problem was that the Independent was leeching

:21:03.:21:06.

money. They now seem to have got what looks like a very good

:21:07.:21:13.

financial deal for the Independent. So, breaking news there.

:21:14.:21:19.

Global markets faced another difficult day yesterday as selloffs

:21:20.:21:22.

in Asia, Europe and America pulled the world market

:21:23.:21:24.

The turmoil has been sparked over investor fears surrounding the cost

:21:25.:21:28.

to banks of negative borrowing rates imposed by central banks

:21:29.:21:31.

as well as concerns over the market and currency volatility

:21:32.:21:33.

This week has seen significant developments on the global economic

:21:34.:21:41.

The US Federal Reserve warned of "increased volatility"

:21:42.:21:45.

The FTSE lost 2.4% overnight, with the Nikkei in Japan

:21:46.:21:52.

And Sweden joined Japan in cutting interest rates deeper

:21:53.:22:07.

So, you pay the bank to take your money.

:22:08.:22:15.

We're joined now by Linda Yueh from Oxford University.

:22:16.:22:19.

She used to be the BBC's chief business correspondent, but now

:22:20.:22:27.

she's respectable! Let me just get to what I think is the kernel of

:22:28.:22:31.

this. It has been clear since the end of the last year, and

:22:32.:22:34.

increasingly this year, but the markets have lost faith in the

:22:35.:22:40.

central banks, that they know what they are doing? And I would add to

:22:41.:22:44.

that, policymakers in emerging markets. You look at the two big

:22:45.:22:49.

drivers, it is uncertainty over what the Federal Reserve is going to do

:22:50.:22:52.

next, what major central banks are doing. And this is depressing bank

:22:53.:22:56.

shares. The other big uncertainty is around what China and other emerging

:22:57.:23:01.

markets are doing. Are they going to be able to manage a slowdown? That

:23:02.:23:05.

is hitting commodities and minerals. If you luck at these of two sectors,

:23:06.:23:10.

they are leading the decline. That is why the British stock market is

:23:11.:23:14.

in a bear market, and globally, stock markets are also in a bear

:23:15.:23:18.

market, down 20% from their peak. But I should also emphasise that

:23:19.:23:25.

cheap money, since 2008, a lot of it has gone into equities. So the FTSE

:23:26.:23:31.

had a record high last April. So even if it has topped by 20%, it is

:23:32.:23:35.

still very high relative to what it was before the crisis. If you are

:23:36.:23:42.

thinking, I'm not sure what is going to happen with interest rates or

:23:43.:23:42.

global growth, then maybe you should take a little bit of your money out

:23:43.:23:47.

of the market, what is called profit-taking, and see how it goes.

:23:48.:23:51.

That is what people are doing, people are buying bills in America,

:23:52.:23:58.

gilts in Britain, and buying gold. If not a huge amount. Are they right

:23:59.:24:03.

to do that? I think if you wanted to diversify your portfolio, I would

:24:04.:24:10.

say yes. By the way, the UK is not as bad as the United States. The

:24:11.:24:13.

number of record highs which has been hit by the SNP, by the down

:24:14.:24:18.

Jones, that market was always going to deflate. So taking some of your

:24:19.:24:21.

money out and putting it into government bonds, as you mentioned,

:24:22.:24:26.

you get low returns but the volatility will be less. That being

:24:27.:24:29.

said, interest rates of course also affect government bonds, the

:24:30.:24:34.

interest that government pays. And so there is I think quite a lot of

:24:35.:24:39.

volatility and into all of these classes. The big question, of course

:24:40.:24:46.

cash is a better thing to be in now if there is no inflation, because it

:24:47.:24:50.

does not lose its value, even with derisory interest rates. But the big

:24:51.:24:54.

question which I think a lot of our viewers would like to know is this -

:24:55.:25:00.

these collapses of the stock exchanges, are they a harbinger of

:25:01.:25:03.

another recession on the way this year or not? That is what we want to

:25:04.:25:09.

know! Because we know the stock exchanges have predicted nine of the

:25:10.:25:13.

last five recessions. Yes, five of the last nine. Absolutely. In the

:25:14.:25:20.

US, a stock market is... Actually it is nine of the last five, because

:25:21.:25:24.

they predicted a lot more than actually happened! That is a nice

:25:25.:25:29.

way of putting it. In the US, they are known as a leading indicator.

:25:30.:25:33.

But in Europe it has not had a similar track record. So I would not

:25:34.:25:38.

necessarily say that... So are we heading for a recession? Not

:25:39.:25:41.

necessarily because of the stock markets. Obviously, if things get

:25:42.:25:45.

much worse in the stock market, you cannot divorce the two. But right

:25:46.:25:48.

now if you look at the underlying health of the British economy, the

:25:49.:25:53.

Eurozone, the American economy, it is not stellar but it is not clear

:25:54.:25:57.

that there is any real economy drivers pushing them into recession

:25:58.:26:01.

again. That being said, however, if the stock market plunges too far, or

:26:02.:26:06.

if China has a hard landing, or if the emerging markets really have

:26:07.:26:10.

problems, of course the two cannot be divorced for too long. The

:26:11.:26:14.

reality was that we were printing money with no basis for it. Rupert

:26:15.:26:19.

Murdoch, give him his credit, nine months ago forecast all of this. He

:26:20.:26:23.

said, there is too much money splashing around. These shares are

:26:24.:26:26.

miles too high in Wall Street and they are coming down. Businessmen

:26:27.:26:30.

and women have got to get on with it. That is the truth about the

:26:31.:26:33.

matter. Things go up and they go down. Mining has been ridiculous,

:26:34.:26:41.

oil has been $113, it is now at $30. Who can tell? It is great news for

:26:42.:26:46.

us, the consumer. It is not great news if you are a stockholder in

:26:47.:26:50.

some big oil company. The collapse of oil prices is like a massive tax

:26:51.:26:55.

cut but it is not having an impact on the growing economies. It affects

:26:56.:26:59.

liquidity in lots of different areas, that is true. But the fact

:27:00.:27:02.

is, we are not in bad shape in our country. The US is doing well. Doing

:27:03.:27:09.

OK. Yes, but it is doing well. How well do we expect it to be? We do

:27:10.:27:13.

not expect China to grow at 7-10% any more. They are becoming like us.

:27:14.:27:19.

Truth is, we should not get too knocked out of bed by all of this.

:27:20.:27:23.

Someone who might is George Osborne. He came in after the election

:27:24.:27:26.

suggesting that if he simply held his course, the message was that

:27:27.:27:30.

things were going a lot better. Then I noticed, when he spoke at the

:27:31.:27:35.

World Economic Forum at Davos, the message had changed quite abruptly

:27:36.:27:39.

to global gloom, which is the Chancellor or code for, it is not my

:27:40.:27:44.

fault if the economy starts to falter. He has got a five year

:27:45.:27:48.

parliament, he has got a majority. Labour is really nowhere on the

:27:49.:27:52.

economy at the moment, for most people anyway. So he can do with it

:27:53.:27:57.

at a time when things are bad and bumpy. But he does need to keep that

:27:58.:28:00.

narrative going, that it has been worth it. That the cuts in public

:28:01.:28:06.

spending are actually getting us somewhere, that our productivity is

:28:07.:28:10.

improving. If he cannot make back argument at the very time when he

:28:11.:28:13.

wants to run for the leadership, I suspect, then he could have a

:28:14.:28:18.

slightly bumpy ride. The Chinese economy is slowing down, but even

:28:19.:28:22.

more importantly, it is moving from a smokestack to a consumer driven

:28:23.:28:26.

economy. The emerging markets are now part of the problem, not the

:28:27.:28:31.

solution, unlike in 2008, when they were part of the solution. The

:28:32.:28:37.

Eurozone is growing by 1%, confirmed by figures today. The British

:28:38.:28:41.

economy is struggling to stay over 2%, so is the American economy. You

:28:42.:28:45.

add all of that up and we are fragile. It would only take one

:28:46.:28:49.

major shock to blow that fragility apart, is it not the case? I think

:28:50.:28:54.

it is absolutely the case. That's why if you are worried that we could

:28:55.:28:57.

be facing recession... The thing with crises is that they will never

:28:58.:29:03.

be foreseen. Or we foresee the wrong one! But can policymakers do

:29:04.:29:08.

anything about it? And the reason we keep talking about negative interest

:29:09.:29:11.

rates is because interest rates are barely 0%. They are being cut

:29:12.:29:18.

further to try to get growth up. If you have a big crisis, how much more

:29:19.:29:21.

ammunition could central banks do, and the tools they have have really

:29:22.:29:29.

fuelled, I think... Cheap cash has fuelled for instance equity markets.

:29:30.:29:33.

So I think the answer is fiscal. Now, fiscal is all about politics.

:29:34.:29:37.

Are you willing to use government spending to boost the economy,

:29:38.:29:40.

should the economy go into recession? And that economy and

:29:41.:29:44.

think will be no for major economies. This will be the real

:29:45.:29:48.

problem. Very quickly, on the recession for the UK, I think the

:29:49.:29:52.

indicator to watches actually interest rates, because the high

:29:53.:29:55.

amount of household debt in Britain is more likely to be... The markets

:29:56.:30:02.

do not think until 2019. Exactly. So what is the point of Mark Carney? I

:30:03.:30:08.

don't know! Why has he spent three years telling us, you have got to

:30:09.:30:11.

get your mortgage settled in and all of that? No point asking me! Why is

:30:12.:30:18.

he still in a job? He has been wrong. Trying to predict markets is

:30:19.:30:24.

a fool's game. You might as well go into the betting shop. The man has

:30:25.:30:27.

been a disaster. I hope he goes back to Canada. On that friendly view of

:30:28.:30:32.

the Governor of the Bank of England, we will thank Linda and move on!

:30:33.:30:36.

Now, the row over whether Britain should remain in or leave the EU

:30:37.:30:39.

was never going to be overly-friendly, and this week we've

:30:40.:30:42.

seen accusations from both sides that the other has resorted

:30:43.:30:44.

to scaremongering to make their case.

:30:45.:30:46.

And earlier this week it turned out that even the prime minister,

:30:47.:30:48.

the man who once proclaimed that sunshine could win the day,

:30:49.:30:51.

wasn't above issuing a gloomy warning.

:30:52.:30:53.

Here's what he had to say about what would happen to British

:30:54.:30:55.

On the issue of Europe and our borders, look,

:30:56.:31:01.

Yes, this is a bilateral agreement, it is a good agreement.

:31:02.:31:06.

It is an agreement which means that our borders are effectively

:31:07.:31:09.

in Calais, not in Dover.

:31:10.:31:11.

I work very hard with my French counterparts, as does

:31:12.:31:17.

the Home Secretary, to make sure we do keep that.

:31:18.:31:20.

That is why we have helped with financing, why we have helped

:31:21.:31:23.

with finances, with border guards and co-operation

:31:24.:31:25.

But the fact is, there are an awful lot of opposition politicians

:31:26.:31:31.

in France who would love an excuse to tear up that treaty,

:31:32.:31:34.

and who would like the border not to be in France

:31:35.:31:37.

I do not want to give people an excuse to do that.

:31:38.:31:44.

And we're joined now by James McGrory, head

:31:45.:31:47.

of communications for Britain Stronger in Europe,

:31:48.:31:49.

and Richard Tice, founder and CEO of Leave.eu.

:31:50.:31:55.

So after all these accusations and counter-accusations

:31:56.:31:58.

of scaremongering we've devised a Daily Politics quiz,

:31:59.:32:02.

loosely inspired by the Generation Game,

:32:03.:32:07.

to try and get to the bottom of some of these stories.

:32:08.:32:10.

James, Richard, you're going to see a series of images,

:32:11.:32:16.

and as they pass by on the conveyor belt, I want you to identify

:32:17.:32:19.

which scare stories have been pushed by which campaign.

:32:20.:32:25.

Here we go. There we go. OK. 4% inflation. Biscuits, which one is

:32:26.:32:47.

that? The NHS. These. One of hours I think. Mr Putin. One of yours. So

:32:48.:32:57.

you did identify some of them. I think were mainly on the remaining

:32:58.:33:03.

side. Got to be for each, it's the BBC. Which ones were the remaining

:33:04.:33:11.

scare stories? This is tough, you have to remember what they are.

:33:12.:33:19.

Football was ours. What was the point though? You couldn't buy

:33:20.:33:26.

players any more. You were allowed to travel freely in the EU and

:33:27.:33:31.

footballers, like Hector Bellerin at Arsenal, he would not be allowed to

:33:32.:33:38.

play. Remember, they are scare stories. 4% were city banks saying

:33:39.:33:42.

that inflation would go to 4% if we left. Who knows where Citibank got

:33:43.:33:52.

that figure? The Bees, that was the remain campaign, something to do

:33:53.:33:58.

with the European bees. Mr Putin was Remain because he would love us to

:33:59.:34:06.

leave. The out stories were Turkey, that flag would be flying over

:34:07.:34:10.

Downing Street. Biscuits, interfering with how we prepare

:34:11.:34:14.

biscuits. The NHS would have to privatise unless we got out. And the

:34:15.:34:19.

Eurozone. That is a perennial scare story. It's the most important one.

:34:20.:34:29.

So, James, how many votes do you think there are in warning people

:34:30.:34:34.

that it is bad for British bees? I don't think it's the be all and end

:34:35.:34:40.

all. It's got nothing to do with our membership. The bee population will

:34:41.:34:47.

decline across the world, and you have to take action whether you are

:34:48.:34:51.

in or out. But the future of the country should not be determined on

:34:52.:34:54.

the bee population? I think it will be about the economy and security.

:34:55.:34:58.

How many votes are there in biscuits? There are no votes in

:34:59.:35:05.

biscuits. Why make it an issue? The reality is people want to focus on

:35:06.:35:10.

issues like sovereignty and security. So why are both sides

:35:11.:35:15.

focusing on this? These are trivial issues. The big issues are

:35:16.:35:22.

sovereignty and economics. Why is the Prime Minister scaremongering as

:35:23.:35:26.

he was earlier, suggesting migrant camps are coming? The Prime Minister

:35:27.:35:33.

implied that the reason we had the Calle arrangement was because of

:35:34.:35:36.

membership of the EU and if we left the EU that would be ripped up and

:35:37.:35:40.

the camps would move to Kent. We know none of that is true. The camps

:35:41.:35:46.

RA result of the bilateral arrangement by France and Britain

:35:47.:35:50.

and even if we did stay in the EU, France could rip the treaty up

:35:51.:35:55.

tomorrow if it wanted to. It is not connected with EU membership. There

:35:56.:35:59.

is a greater risk they would rip it up if we left the EU. The former

:36:00.:36:03.

head of the UK border end and she -- agency said that. French politicians

:36:04.:36:09.

are queueing up to say the same thing. Hold on, the French

:36:10.:36:13.

politicians are queueing up to say that regardless of whether we are in

:36:14.:36:17.

or out, Nicolas Sarkozy says he will rip up the agreement, regardless of

:36:18.:36:22.

whether Britain is in or out of the EU, so the membership is not the

:36:23.:36:26.

factor. He's already saying he would do it. The guy who ran the borders

:36:27.:36:33.

in this country... He doesn't run France, and Mr Sarkozy could be the

:36:34.:36:37.

next president. He says he will do it even if we stay in. It was a

:36:38.:36:40.

deliberate attempt by the Prime Minister to scare the British

:36:41.:36:44.

people. He is bullying his cabinet ministers and frightening his junior

:36:45.:36:49.

ministers. And now he's trying to terrify the British public with

:36:50.:36:56.

suggestions of tents all over Kent. And you are saying people will be

:36:57.:37:01.

overrun by Turks if we stay in. We are not trying to terrify people.

:37:02.:37:05.

It's a clear thing about whether we want to stay in or out. There is no

:37:06.:37:11.

prospect of Turkey joining. You ask some people on the Remain side... We

:37:12.:37:15.

have seen the transcript of the Turkish resident dealing with Mr

:37:16.:37:22.

Task, and the biggest complaint was that in 30 years they have made no

:37:23.:37:28.

progress. -- Mr Task. Why are you scaring people? I have not been

:37:29.:37:34.

scaring people. Your side has. Others might have done. Are you

:37:35.:37:40.

elevated by the debate on the future of the nation? Not particularly but

:37:41.:37:43.

you expect a big scrap, and if you have a referendum, you have a big

:37:44.:37:48.

punch-up. I'm not appalled either. It is interesting given Mr Cameron's

:37:49.:37:53.

position on renegotiation I hadn't expected him to go into

:37:54.:37:57.

scaremongering so early. I think he knows he has perhaps he has a bit

:37:58.:38:04.

more to do, bit more worried than we anticipated and to respond quickly

:38:05.:38:08.

to the fact that the renegotiation deal is broadly seen as pro-or

:38:09.:38:13.

anti-as not much of a deal, so he has to move the argument elsewhere.

:38:14.:38:20.

I agree with that. I was astonished. This is the kind of throw of the

:38:21.:38:24.

dice I would expect with ten days to go, but four months in advance, I

:38:25.:38:29.

reckon his own private polling is telling him that things look very

:38:30.:38:33.

gloomy and the other aspect is, it gives the members of the league

:38:34.:38:38.

campaign a push, because if they say that the Prime Minister is running

:38:39.:38:43.

the race and migrants argument, I will run my own race and migrants

:38:44.:38:47.

argument. Look at those 11 million people from Syria. Either way, they

:38:48.:38:49.

are making their way the A2. I people from Syria. Either way, they

:38:50.:38:56.

by him. He is flogging himself to death, seven days a week, and even

:38:57.:39:01.

fronting up prison reform is right in the middle of these negotiations.

:39:02.:39:05.

I think he is overworking. He is overstretched. He is scaring people

:39:06.:39:11.

at a time when he gags his own ministers. We love the

:39:12.:39:13.

scaremongering because the truth is that the British people will not be

:39:14.:39:17.

bullied, we will not be scared or threatened and I am convinced we

:39:18.:39:23.

will vote to leave. When will we move on, and in your case, when will

:39:24.:39:28.

we start to hear the positive, uplifting case for remaining in the

:39:29.:39:34.

European Union? I try to make it every day, the economic benefits

:39:35.:39:38.

from being in the EU, the jobs linked to the membership, lower

:39:39.:39:41.

prices in the shops and the huge amount of investment we get in the

:39:42.:39:43.

country because big companies know they can trade to the world's

:39:44.:39:49.

largest trading block on their doorstep. I'd rather talk about that

:39:50.:39:54.

than biscuits or bees. When will we get a clear idea of what sort of

:39:55.:39:57.

nation we would be if we are no longer in the EU? We make the

:39:58.:40:04.

message all the time. Britain would be outward facing, globally facing.

:40:05.:40:08.

Big businesses, when they address the issues, they realise, forget the

:40:09.:40:14.

myths, there are no concerns about jobs and their investment and plans

:40:15.:40:18.

for the UK. Take Toyota, Nissan, Vauxhall, they all said they would

:40:19.:40:23.

make more. We have run out of time but you can see it is actually more

:40:24.:40:28.

interesting that we get onto the important issues and then we will

:40:29.:40:33.

come back and forget about the bees. Or the birds.

:40:34.:40:38.

If you're an assiduous follower of the Daily Politics,

:40:39.:40:40.

you'll know by now that Giles has recently been rubbing shoulders

:40:41.:40:42.

with huge numbers of the great and good.

:40:43.:40:44.

He's talked to handfuls of former home secretaries,

:40:45.:40:46.

oodles of former health secretaries, and a smattering

:40:47.:40:48.

Today, in the latest of our series, "So you want to be a Secretary

:40:49.:40:53.

of State?", Giles has been getting to grips with the job of Defence

:40:54.:40:56.

Whitehall, the heart of government, but could you be in charge of the

:40:57.:41:16.

Army, Navy and air force and still be responsible for all the nuclear

:41:17.:41:20.

weapons and the lives of all service personnel, so you want to be

:41:21.:41:27.

Secretary of State for Defence. It's the only department where I can

:41:28.:41:29.

remember even if I was walking down the corridor, even civil servant

:41:30.:41:34.

would say good morning, sir. I walked down Downing Street as Shadow

:41:35.:41:39.

Secretary of State for Scotland with a staff of three, and I walked back

:41:40.:41:43.

down the Secretary of State for Defence with 383,000 employees.

:41:44.:41:48.

Being dropped out of the helicopter onto the flat deck of a submarine

:41:49.:41:58.

was not wholly fun. No Prime Minister will forget the

:41:59.:42:06.

responsibilities of the Secretary of State for Defence and no Prime

:42:07.:42:09.

Minister -- Secretary of State should think they are operating on

:42:10.:42:12.

the right. I could not say anything about the fiancee of my friend being

:42:13.:42:16.

killed. Without a shadow of a doubt, that was the low point. Jill Rutten

:42:17.:42:21.

was a senior civil servant and is now at the Institute for local

:42:22.:42:24.

government. She says being Defence Secretary is about being strategic.

:42:25.:42:30.

To be a good Secretary of State for Defence you've basically got to

:42:31.:42:34.

fight on three fronts. Get a grip of a big department, big budgets. By

:42:35.:42:39.

watering numbers. Still, you have to be credible with the military and

:42:40.:42:42.

the interesting thing about the military is they have direct access

:42:43.:42:46.

very often to the Prime Minister and the media. And you also want to be a

:42:47.:42:52.

player in the debates the government is having about national security,

:42:53.:42:55.

and the best Secretary of State of defence are the people who can win

:42:56.:42:59.

all those three fronts at the same time. General Guthrie, the first

:43:00.:43:03.

chief of defence staff when I arrived in October 1999, described

:43:04.:43:09.

the Ministry of Defence is a three legged install. I found that an

:43:10.:43:13.

attractive description of the military, civil servants and

:43:14.:43:18.

politicians. They all had to work together to keep this stool up

:43:19.:43:23.

right. But in a sense they were struggling to argue their case.

:43:24.:43:28.

In defence, the general rule is, know your enemy. But it isn't always

:43:29.:43:35.

do you think. We often used to say when ministers of defence met

:43:36.:43:42.

together that the common enemy was not an external enemy, it was the

:43:43.:43:47.

ministries of finance. When you have a very big budget it's not just the

:43:48.:43:51.

Treasury who are after your money, pretty well every other department

:43:52.:43:55.

is as well. But the MoD has its ways of fighting back. The ministry are

:43:56.:44:02.

very professional. They know the dangers and they have what I think

:44:03.:44:11.

is called a long-term costing, I think, the next ten years every

:44:12.:44:14.

penny has been spent. They will tell you exactly where it is going, and

:44:15.:44:19.

they do that so they can say to the Treasury there is no money left.

:44:20.:44:22.

Until they want something different, and then they change it. It is not

:44:23.:44:28.

just the civil servants who have their ploys. Part of what the chief

:44:29.:44:34.

of staff does is to give military advice, but they are also the trade

:44:35.:44:37.

union representatives of the uniformed personnel that they are

:44:38.:44:42.

ahead of. They are fighting for their own particular profession's

:44:43.:44:46.

interest. That will often be in the public interest and easy to support,

:44:47.:44:50.

but sometimes it will not necessarily be in the public

:44:51.:44:53.

interest any more than the views of the British Medical Association as

:44:54.:44:56.

to what doctors should have and receive and how they should be

:44:57.:44:59.

treated. It's not always in the interest of the wider public. Liam

:45:00.:45:03.

Fox came into the job in 2010 with a mission to cut budgets and Project

:45:04.:45:09.

overspends, and that was going to -- upset both civil servants and the

:45:10.:45:10.

military. Some of my colleagues spoke about

:45:11.:45:18.

the difficulty of the relationship with the civil service. And I said,

:45:19.:45:23.

times two, for what you get in defence. I generally found that at

:45:24.:45:27.

the top, it was a fairly good relationship. But further down you

:45:28.:45:31.

had enormous resistance to change. And we brought in a tsunami of

:45:32.:45:36.

change with us in 2010. He is soon decided to scrap the improvement

:45:37.:45:40.

project to the RAF's Nimrod aircraft. And he had to take action

:45:41.:45:46.

to prove he meant it. I was met the next day with a little campaign

:45:47.:45:50.

which said, there is going to be a campaign to save the Nimrod. Having

:45:51.:45:55.

just been elected, I said, not if we cut the wings of it, there will not.

:45:56.:46:01.

So we did cut the wings of them. Make it very clear, when this

:46:02.:46:05.

government said it was going to do something, we had to make it clear

:46:06.:46:10.

that it would do it. Liam Fox was a doctor, not a soldier. But once upon

:46:11.:46:13.

a time the job was often taken by someone who had been in the

:46:14.:46:20.

military. In my day, when I was the Secretary of State for Defence and

:46:21.:46:23.

foreign secretary and so on, we had all really, or almost all of us, had

:46:24.:46:28.

been in the Second World War. And so we understood a bit about it and

:46:29.:46:32.

were concerned about it and knew a bit about defence. I think the more

:46:33.:46:39.

remote the Second World War becomes, the more difficult it is for

:46:40.:46:43.

ministers who know nothing whatever about it, who have never been in the

:46:44.:46:50.

services, to adjust to it. But actually, today, some ministers

:46:51.:46:55.

think that lack of military experience can be an advantage. I

:46:56.:47:01.

have never been a soldier. I was a little bit nervous at first as to

:47:02.:47:04.

how the chiefs of staff would react to a Secretary of State who had

:47:05.:47:08.

never served in the Armed Forces. In fact I found they were relieved,

:47:09.:47:14.

because a number of my predecessors had been captains, majors, thought

:47:15.:47:18.

they knew it all, thought they could tell the generals how to run an

:47:19.:47:21.

army, and did not have that degree of experience. I didn't have no

:47:22.:47:26.

illusions of that kind. Of course, there is one area which does not

:47:27.:47:32.

give room for illusions. It is a hard reality. What a lot happened on

:47:33.:47:38.

my watch. And you never, ever do it lightly. You never, ever take a

:47:39.:47:44.

casual view about sending people into what is known as harm's way.

:47:45.:47:48.

Because you know the responsible at Eli is on your shoulders. -- the

:47:49.:47:59.

responsibility lies. I established the idea of having repatriations

:48:00.:48:04.

ceremonies, and rightly, I went to the first one, I went to a number of

:48:05.:48:08.

them. And afterwards I went to see the families of those who had died,

:48:09.:48:13.

in some cases only a matter of days after their loss. That was probably

:48:14.:48:16.

the most difficult thing I have ever had to do in my life. The Prime

:48:17.:48:21.

Minister is commander-in-chief and makes the decision whether to commit

:48:22.:48:24.

troops. But if anyone doubted the importance of defence, one Labour

:48:25.:48:29.

Secretary of State is clear - electorally, there are warnings from

:48:30.:48:33.

history. You do not play politics unnecessarily in defence. In my

:48:34.:48:39.

subsequent career, I used to tell a lot of countries, don't play

:48:40.:48:43.

politics with defence. The Labour Party did and went out of power for

:48:44.:48:47.

18 years. Whoever is in government, defence is an office which involves

:48:48.:48:51.

great burdens, budgets and bureaucracy. And yet those who have

:48:52.:48:56.

done it often say it is one of the most fascinating honours of their

:48:57.:48:57.

career. Now in case you missed

:48:58.:49:01.

it earlier this week, there was quite a result

:49:02.:49:04.

in the New Hampshire primary over Both the Republican and Democrat

:49:05.:49:07.

parties are in the process of choosing who their candidate

:49:08.:49:13.

will be for the presidential And on Tuesday night Hilary Clinton

:49:14.:49:16.

suffered a set-back, In the Republican race Donald Trump

:49:17.:49:20.

exceeded expectations, Here are the two winners

:49:21.:49:23.

from Tuesday night. We are going to make

:49:24.:49:30.

America great again, but we're going to do it

:49:31.:49:37.

the old-fashioned way. We're going to beat China,

:49:38.:49:39.

Japan, we're going to We're going to beat all of these

:49:40.:49:42.

countries that are taking so much of our money away from

:49:43.:49:49.

us on a daily basis. Given the enormous

:49:50.:49:52.

crises facing our country, it is just too

:49:53.:50:04.

late for the same old, same old establishment

:50:05.:50:08.

politics and establishment We've been joined in the studio

:50:09.:50:12.

by Jan Halper, chairman of the UK branch of Republicans Overseas,

:50:13.:50:24.

and in our Oxford studios by none other than the brother

:50:25.:50:27.

of Bernie Sanders, who has this week just been made the Green Party's

:50:28.:50:33.

health spokesman, Larry Sanders. That is the Green Party here in

:50:34.:50:42.

Britain. Let's begin by looking at some

:50:43.:50:44.

of the Republican Donald Trump, 69, is a billionaire

:50:45.:50:48.

business mogul worth He leads the polls nationally

:50:49.:50:52.

and in some key states. As Daily Politics viewers know,

:50:53.:51:01.

his comments about muslims have caused some controversy,

:51:02.:51:03.

though not with Katie Hopkins! Ted Cruz is a Texas Senator

:51:04.:51:06.

who shot to fame in 2014 for speaking for 24

:51:07.:51:14.

hours against Obamacare. He gained a surprise victory

:51:15.:51:15.

in the Iowa caucuses last week. He came third in New Hampshire -

:51:16.:51:24.

respectable. 44-year-old Macro Rubio

:51:25.:51:28.

was born in Miami to He's been a Florida senator since

:51:29.:51:30.

2011 during which time his part in a bipartisan immigration reform

:51:31.:51:36.

package is thought to have cost him He has since changed his views on

:51:37.:51:52.

that during the primaries. And now look at the Democratic Party

:51:53.:51:54.

frontrunners, there is only two of them.

:51:55.:51:58.

Hilary Clinton first came to the world's attention

:51:59.:52:00.

She is seen as the Democrat's front runner and was President Obama's

:52:01.:52:04.

in the New Hampshire primary shows, not least is Bernie Sanders

:52:05.:52:14.

a self-defined democratic socialist and has been in Congress for more

:52:15.:52:17.

So, these are the runners and riders on the Republican side. Let me come

:52:18.:52:36.

to you first, Larry Sanders. New Hampshire is overwhelmingly white.

:52:37.:52:42.

He did very well amongst the white liberals. The race now moves to

:52:43.:52:47.

Carolina. He does not do so well among Hispanics or black voters -

:52:48.:52:52.

why is that? Hello. I don't know and I'm not sure it will be true. That

:52:53.:52:57.

is the reason for the campaign. He does not just do well among white

:52:58.:53:01.

liberals. That I think it is very important, and the experts seem to

:53:02.:53:06.

have missed it, what Bernard is doing, for the first time for a

:53:07.:53:10.

left-wing politician in America for a long time, he is reaching to the

:53:11.:53:15.

lower paid people, the people who have been called moderates. But I

:53:16.:53:19.

think they are not moderates, they want a decent way of life. And the

:53:20.:53:23.

way this economy has been stacked, they have not been getting at. So I

:53:24.:53:26.

think something very new is happening. Well, that makes Nevada,

:53:27.:53:33.

where there are lots of low paid Hispanic voters, and South Carolina,

:53:34.:53:36.

where there are lots of low paid black voters, that makes it a real

:53:37.:53:40.

test for him. He needs to get their votes to be the man who will carry

:53:41.:53:44.

the Democratic nomination? Well, of course they are both very important

:53:45.:53:49.

states. This nomination process I think will go on for a long time.

:53:50.:53:53.

They are not the beginning and end of all things but they are very

:53:54.:53:58.

important. What is worrying is that the Clinton camp now is trying to

:53:59.:54:08.

suggest that Bernard is not really concerned with black voters. It is

:54:09.:54:13.

not true. He cut his teeth as a very young man in the civil rights

:54:14.:54:18.

movement. He played an important role, not a major role, but an

:54:19.:54:24.

important role in Chicago, in desegregating the university housing

:54:25.:54:27.

stock. His whole career is based on support for people who need more,

:54:28.:54:31.

and in many areas, black people fit that bill. So if they succeed in

:54:32.:54:37.

splitting that, the white working class off from the black working

:54:38.:54:40.

class, there are bad times ahead. Stay with us. I want to bring in Jan

:54:41.:54:47.

Halper now on the Republican side. Wasn't New Hampshire just about the

:54:48.:54:50.

worst possible result for the Republican establishment? The one

:54:51.:54:54.

they want to stop, Mr Trump, won by a large margin. Their favourite son,

:54:55.:55:00.

Marco Rubio, came up poor fifth. And there are still about five or six

:55:01.:55:04.

candidates in the race, which means that the anti-Trump forces still

:55:05.:55:08.

cannot coalesce around a single candidate? Not at all. And you're

:55:09.:55:12.

not going to see that. Because right now, they have nothing to lose and

:55:13.:55:16.

they're going to stay in the race through Super-G was day. That is

:55:17.:55:21.

what I mean, that is not what the party wanted? It is not, and Bush

:55:22.:55:29.

has his brother campaigning with him in South Carolina, and I'm not sure

:55:30.:55:33.

that is a good thing. Because the contrast of how folksy George is,

:55:34.:55:40.

versus Jeb... Low-energy, Mr Trump has called him. Exactly. But Mr Bush

:55:41.:55:46.

is well-organised in South Carolina. Ted Cruz is the most organised

:55:47.:55:52.

throughout the South. Mr Trump did not win in Iowa, was not really

:55:53.:55:57.

expecting to. He won the time in New Hampshire. What has he got to do in

:55:58.:56:00.

South Carolina to remain the front runner? As he said in his acceptance

:56:01.:56:05.

speech in new doctor, he has finally understood the ground game. And so

:56:06.:56:10.

he has hired some of the best people to extend the ground game. He

:56:11.:56:16.

realises it is not just these rallies of 10-15,000 people. And so

:56:17.:56:20.

he is starting to balance traditional ways with

:56:21.:56:28.

nontraditional. Mr Sanders, is your brother now thinking, I really could

:56:29.:56:32.

be the Democratic nominee? Yes, I am sure he is. And not only that he can

:56:33.:56:38.

be the Democratic nominee, that will be the hard part, but that he will

:56:39.:56:42.

be the president. He must be aware that if that was to happen, almost

:56:43.:56:46.

none of the things he wants to do could ever get through Congress?

:56:47.:56:51.

Well, his view is that you do not win by giving up - first. First you

:56:52.:56:57.

go and fight. And he will be a very formidable opponent. He is working

:56:58.:57:05.

in a real situation. We have had 40 years in which the wealth and income

:57:06.:57:08.

of the country has been flowing from the bulk of the population to the

:57:09.:57:12.

very rich. There are millions of millions of people who know that.

:57:13.:57:15.

That is where he is strong. Thank you for that. And Donald Trump has

:57:16.:57:21.

gone from being almost like, oh, he will burn out by the autumn of 2015,

:57:22.:57:27.

to, now, the Republican candidate who is the one to beat, the

:57:28.:57:31.

favourite - will he get the nomination, in your view? The issue

:57:32.:57:39.

is, our super delegates. And 168 of them are part of the Republican

:57:40.:57:43.

National Committee. Which is more the establishment. Exactly. But I

:57:44.:57:47.

was at the Charleston debate, and we had the committee meet, and every

:57:48.:57:53.

night people were going around the table, if you had to vote today, who

:57:54.:57:56.

would you vote for? And they said Trump. Well, we will see. It is

:57:57.:58:02.

certainly the strangest American race I have ever covered, which also

:58:03.:58:06.

makes it the most interesting, certainly since the days of the

:58:07.:58:09.

Vietnam War. Thank you both for joining us. Is trump going to get

:58:10.:58:14.

the nomination? Yes, definitely, it is going to be great. Clinton must

:58:15.:58:20.

still be favourite but Sanders is doing well? I would still put big

:58:21.:58:26.

money on Hillary Clinton, however. Can you remember what Tim Farron

:58:27.:58:32.

called to be legalised? It is the quiz question. It is easy... Well,

:58:33.:58:37.

he was following our cover this week in saying that cannabis should be

:58:38.:58:41.

legalised, and here is how to do it. Yes. Thanks to all of my guests. I

:58:42.:58:48.

will be back on Sunday with The Sunday Politics on BBC One at 11

:58:49.:58:52.

o'clock. I will be speaking to Matt Hancock. We will be testing how many

:58:53.:58:56.

promises the Tories have kept so far, and how many they have broken.

:58:57.:58:58.

BBC One, Sunday morning. As Ireland head to France

:58:59.:59:07.

in search of a first victory, As Ireland head to France

:59:08.:59:09.

in search of a first victory, can Wales use home advantage

:59:10.:59:15.

to beat a deflated Scotland? And jubilant England enter

:59:16.:59:19.

the Stadio Olimpico

:59:20.:59:22.

Andrew Neil with the latest political news and debate from Westminster. Includes a look at turmoil in the global financial markets, scaremongering by both sides campaigning in the EU referendum, and Green Party councillor Larry Sanders talking about his brother and US presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders. Andrew is joined by guests including the journalists Anne McElvoy and Kelvin MacKenzie.


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