14/03/2016 Daily Politics


14/03/2016

Jo Coburn is joined by former Europe ministers Graham Brady and Caroline Flint to discuss the latest news from Westminster. Includes discussion around the EU referendum.


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Transcript


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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:37.:00:40.

36 people are killed in a bomb attack in the Turkish capital

:00:41.:00:43.

Is the country in any position to help solve the EU migrant crisis?

:00:44.:00:49.

What's the relationship between the Labour's candidate

:00:50.:00:52.

for Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, and Babar Ahmad?

:00:53.:00:56.

The so-called cyber-jihadist speaks about their relationship

:00:57.:00:58.

Why Tories who voted to remain in 1975 are campaigning to leave,

:00:59.:01:10.

and Labour leavers in '75 are now for remain.

:01:11.:01:13.

And I ask Boris Johnson what his chances are

:01:14.:01:15.

You had a greater chance of being reincarnated as an olive...

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You remember, than you did about being

:01:19.:01:21.

Or a baked bean, or decapitated by Frisbee or locked

:01:22.:01:25.

And with us for the duration today, a former Europe Minister,

:01:26.:01:38.

And the Conservative MP, Graham Brady, who was once

:01:39.:01:41.

First this morning, 36 people have been killed in a suicide car bomb

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attack in the Turkish capital, Ankara.

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The bomb went off last night outside the main railway station

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The Turkish government are already pointing the finger at the outlawed

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One of the dead is said to be a known PKK militant.

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Last month, a bomb attack on a military convoy in Ankara

:02:10.:02:13.

killed 28 people and wounded dozens more, and in October more than 100

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people were killed at a peace rally in the city.

:02:18.:02:24.

Caroline Flint, how dangerous this unrest in Turkey for the rest of us?

:02:25.:02:32.

It is obviously very concerning pickers as well as these attacks we

:02:33.:02:36.

know that Turkey is obviously dealing with millions of refugees

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coming through their borders as well. And what is so sad for Turkey,

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too, and I've holidayed there many times, in fact I was there last

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summer, is the huge impact these things have not just in terms of a

:02:51.:02:54.

loss for the people involved are also on Turkey's economy. But the

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problem for Turkey and in some ways then relying on Turkey to stop the

:03:00.:03:03.

migrant crisis is that they are fighting a war on two fronts. They

:03:04.:03:08.

are still fighting an old and ongoing battle with the PKK and they

:03:09.:03:13.

are also part of this coalition to fight IS, are they really in a

:03:14.:03:17.

position to help us fight the migrant crisis? We have to depend on

:03:18.:03:22.

a working Turkey. Turkey is a critically important power in the

:03:23.:03:26.

region. In terms of helping with what is going on in Syria and other

:03:27.:03:31.

parts, but also our front line on the migrant crisis. Should we be

:03:32.:03:35.

relying on them and is this deal going to stick? The deal is another

:03:36.:03:39.

matter and I don't think the deal is going to make much difference. The

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fact is with one in, one outcome you do not discourage people from coming

:03:46.:03:49.

you are just providing a different dynamic in that same traffic. We

:03:50.:03:52.

don't really have an alternative, do we? We do have to work with Turkey

:03:53.:03:57.

because they are dealing with millions of refugees. Not only in

:03:58.:04:01.

terms of within Turkey but also the problem of traffickers taking people

:04:02.:04:05.

out of Turkey and into Greece as well. It is absolutely right that

:04:06.:04:08.

the government and other EU nations should be having this discussion.

:04:09.:04:13.

What the final deal will look like is yet to be negotiated. Do you

:04:14.:04:17.

think it will be done on Thursday? I don't know whether it will be done

:04:18.:04:25.

on Thursday but it will not be resolved, the problem will not be

:04:26.:04:27.

resolved until the EU recognises that free movement of people cannot

:04:28.:04:30.

underpin relationships between 28 countries across the continent of

:04:31.:04:34.

Europe. Realistically that's over anyway, freedom of movement for a

:04:35.:04:39.

lot of countries. Are you supporting the idea it should go altogether? A

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lot of European politicians say it is core to what they believe in. If

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people recognised it was over we might have a more meaningful

:04:50.:04:53.

negotiations. Is that the solution, to actually state officially that

:04:54.:04:57.

freedom of movement of people is over, as people have been erecting

:04:58.:05:00.

fences and walls to try to stop migrants coming through? Free

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movement does not mean a free for all, there are limitations on who

:05:05.:05:07.

can come into different parts of the EU and we are part of, we are not

:05:08.:05:12.

part of the Shannon zone so we will not be changing it any time soon.

:05:13.:05:18.

There is a recognition that the external borders of the EU need to

:05:19.:05:21.

be stronger than they are, and clearly what Angela Merkel said

:05:22.:05:24.

which is a sister party to Graham's in the last few months hasn't helped

:05:25.:05:30.

the situation and she is paying the price in the polls. Done very badly

:05:31.:05:33.

in those elections that have just happened. David Cameron said in 2014

:05:34.:05:40.

that he still would like Turkey to join the EU. Do you think he still

:05:41.:05:45.

feels like that? I don't know, but Britain has always been a strong

:05:46.:05:48.

supporter of the idea of Turkey joining the EU. I always used to say

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when I was shadowing Europe that can never happen until we have a very

:05:53.:05:55.

different kind of European Union, one that had updated concepts on

:05:56.:06:02.

open borders and so on. Let's hear what George Osborne had to say on

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this subject yesterday. We have a veto over

:06:05.:06:06.

whether Turkey joins or not. We have set conditions and we have

:06:07.:06:08.

made it absolutely clear that we will not accept new member

:06:09.:06:13.

states to the European Union and give them unfettered

:06:14.:06:15.

free movement of people unless their economies

:06:16.:06:17.

are much closer in size So Britain would block

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Turkish accession? We are absolutely clear that

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while countries might or might not accede, we have to make that

:06:24.:06:27.

decision at the time, they would only have free movement

:06:28.:06:29.

of people if the economies Is he right at the moment? Should it

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be something that would be put on hold? Would you want to see a veto

:06:43.:06:47.

exercised if, in talks on accession, the deal was that Turkey could

:06:48.:06:51.

quicken up its chances to become a member of the EU? That is part of

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Turkey's negotiation gambit in all this. To be honest I don't think

:06:57.:07:00.

there is any sign any time soon that Turkey will be part of the EU. As a

:07:01.:07:05.

country that wants to be it already has certain rights to trade and work

:07:06.:07:08.

with us but those rights are based on what we expect them to do. Apart

:07:09.:07:12.

from a whole number of other things, the other week we saw that a

:07:13.:07:16.

newspaper was shut down in Turkey. Beyond the economic side of things,

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part of being part of the EU is about freedom of speech, a free

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press and other things as well. Not just about Turkey but any country, I

:07:25.:07:29.

would say it has never been harder to become a member of the EU. If

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some of the tests were applied to day were applied before, there may

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be fewer countries in the EU. But Visa free travel for text has been

:07:40.:07:43.

discussed because there has to be a quid pro quo, and you can understand

:07:44.:07:46.

why Turkey would drive a hard bargain, they are the ones on the

:07:47.:07:50.

front line. Is it a price worth paying in order to get Turkey to

:07:51.:07:54.

deal with, to some extent, the flow of Syrian refugees and migrants? It

:07:55.:07:58.

doesn't work, Britain couldn't deliver it, neither could the French

:07:59.:08:02.

or Germans. We have seen how the German electorate are responding to

:08:03.:08:05.

the open borders policy Angela Merkel has had. It is something

:08:06.:08:09.

people on the continent of Europe have had enough of. People expect

:08:10.:08:13.

countries to restore control of the borders and to control the flows of

:08:14.:08:18.

migrants. Fundamentally it is not possible to do that while you are in

:08:19.:08:23.

the EU. We will come onto the EU in just a moment.

:08:24.:08:25.

Who or what did George Osborne ask to "keep it down"

:08:26.:08:30.

while he was writing his Budget in the House of Commons yesterday?

:08:31.:08:35.

Was it a) noisy protesters, b) squeaky House of Commons mice,

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or d) Top Gear, who were filming outside?

:08:40.:08:45.

At the end of the show, Caroline and Graham will give us

:08:46.:08:48.

Now, there have lots of questions in the media in recent weeks

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about the relationship between Labour's candidate

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for London Mayor, Sadiq Khan, and Babar Ahmad, the man known

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In an exclusive interview for the Victoria Derbyshire

:09:03.:09:09.

programme, Ahmad has talked for the first time about the nature

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In 2014, a US court sentenced Babar to 12.5 years in prison

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after admitting supporting terrorism.

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He and others ran an influential online operation, Azzam.com,

:09:32.:09:33.

propagating armed jihadist ideology from the late 1990s,

:09:34.:09:35.

Babar had spent 10 years in a British jail fighting

:09:36.:09:39.

During this time, Sadiq Khan met Mr Ahmad in jail and took

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The Labour MP for Tooting says he did this is his role

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as a constituency MP but acknowledges that he and Babar Ahmad

:09:50.:09:52.

In today's interview, Ahmad says he was "naive" to show

:09:53.:10:00.

support for the Taliban and had this to say about his relationship

:10:01.:10:02.

Sadiq Khan, he gave the same level of support to me that Zac Goldsmith

:10:03.:10:11.

and Boris Johnson said, which is basically that as a British

:10:12.:10:15.

citizen accused of crimes committed in this country,

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Was he visiting you as a friend, or a constituency MP?

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He was visiting me as a constituency MP.

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My family, and lots of people here in Tooting, they told him

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to come and visit me and he just came to visit me and see how I was.

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In my community, anyone who is not your enemy

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is a friend so in that sense, he is my friend.

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But I've never socialised with him or gone out to eat with him,

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He is probably an acquaintance more than a friend.

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How close were you before you were arrested in December 2003?

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I mean, Tooting is a small community.

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I remember every Saturday, he used to be standing at a stall

:11:03.:11:05.

for the Labour Party on Tooting High Street.

:11:06.:11:07.

If I saw him, I would go up to him and shake his hand.

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He is just someone that I knew, walking on the streets.

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In an interview in the last few days, Sadiq Khan said about you,

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"We were not close friends but we knew each other growing up".

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Have you met him since you arrived back in Britain in the last few

:11:23.:11:27.

Yes, I was travelling home one night on the tube with my lawyer

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and I bumped into him and shook his hand.

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You can watch the whole of that interview on the Victoria Derbyshire

:11:35.:11:37.

We asked for an interview with Sadiq Khan or one of his team,

:11:38.:11:45.

But we're joined now by Davis Lewin from the Foreign Policy Think Tank,

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What is your specific accusation against Sadiq Khan Chris Green we

:11:50.:11:55.

have to look at there is a matter of grave national

:11:56.:12:03.

security here with Babar Ahmad, many of whose assertions are open to

:12:04.:12:08.

significant challenge in terms of the interview he has given. No

:12:09.:12:11.

politician should have a relationship with a man such as

:12:12.:12:14.

this, certainly not campaigning for him in that way. I think there are

:12:15.:12:19.

some specific pieces that I question when it comes to Sadiq Khan and his

:12:20.:12:26.

past activities with Mr Ahmad. I think the most obvious one is the

:12:27.:12:28.

Rose report in which it is abundantly clear that Mr Khan had

:12:29.:12:34.

been registered to visit Mr Ahmad in prison as a friend long before he

:12:35.:12:38.

had been elected as an MP in that way. You say that no politician

:12:39.:12:43.

should ever have a relationship with someone like Babar Ahmad, but in the

:12:44.:12:47.

Sadiq Khan statement he says, he made it very clear that he was never

:12:48.:12:55.

a friend of Babar Ahmad's. He was a constituency MP, and that is when he

:12:56.:13:00.

visited Babar Ahmad, to represent him as a constituent, and Babar

:13:01.:13:03.

Ahmad has confirmed that is true. About Ahmad said in his interview

:13:04.:13:07.

that he received as much support from Zac Goldsmith and Boris Johnson

:13:08.:13:14.

as he did from Sadiq Khan, so what is the specific allegation apart

:13:15.:13:18.

from the fact that you perhaps don't like the fact that he visited him in

:13:19.:13:22.

jail? These are two completely different relationships. If we look

:13:23.:13:26.

at what the various politicians have done, there have been these claims,

:13:27.:13:31.

conservative politicians, Labour politicians meet with bad people, in

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the room with bad people and so forth. We have a clear case of a

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politician, it was not when he was an MP, it was before he was an MP,

:13:40.:13:44.

the police made that clear in their statement, he went to visit him as a

:13:45.:13:49.

friend, registered as a friend before that. The sister of Babar

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Ahmad is on the record as saying they were friends. We need to

:13:52.:13:55.

specify what you mean by friend. Because it is important, semantics

:13:56.:14:01.

and language here are very important. As we heard from Babar

:14:02.:14:05.

Ahmad in the interview he said, yes, we were friends because we were not

:14:06.:14:10.

enemies. They knew each other as childhood mates, they did not

:14:11.:14:13.

socialise together. They were not friends in the way that you might be

:14:14.:14:16.

with people that you see on a regular basis, do you accept that?

:14:17.:14:21.

If you have a convicted terrorist who, at the time sitting awaiting

:14:22.:14:26.

extradition, and he is being visited, and there is an

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extraordinarily clear protocol about who can visit under what

:14:30.:14:32.

circumstances, then I think the French bracket mean something. If

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you are registered to visit as a friend, this is not a generic term

:14:36.:14:41.

in that way, it is a specific thing. If I may say, Sadiq Khan wrote the

:14:42.:14:45.

foreword to a report that made outrageous claims, Franco propaganda

:14:46.:14:50.

as far as I am concerned, about the impact the Babar Ahmad case had on

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radicalisation in Britain, it had people like extremists even the

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Prime Minister has called out in it, in which he said he had known him

:15:01.:15:04.

for 15 years and he was a supporter of him. Let's look at the approved

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visitors scheme. It exempts a number of categories including legal

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advisers of categories including legal

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of Parliament, which would have prevented Sadiq Khan going as an MP,

:15:17.:15:20.

which is perhaps why the category of friend stayed rather than changed to

:15:21.:15:25.

be an MP because he would not have been able to visit him and he wanted

:15:26.:15:29.

to, because he was trying to fight extradition, which Boris Johnson was

:15:30.:15:33.

also doing. I do not see the differentiation between Boris

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Johnson and Sadiq Khan. This happened before he was an MP.

:15:35.:15:42.

When the police spoke to him, it was before he was elected as an MP which

:15:43.:15:46.

was later in the year. The interviews in the report before that

:15:47.:15:50.

and the police make clear he was forthcoming about it and it refers

:15:51.:15:53.

to a friend and a childhood friend and whatever else in that way. But

:15:54.:15:57.

there is a much broader issue at play. It is an extraordinarily grave

:15:58.:16:01.

issue of national security. This man is a convicted terrorist, there are

:16:02.:16:05.

no questions about no matter how they try to spin the interview or

:16:06.:16:08.

what happens in terms of seeking to make all sorts of claims about

:16:09.:16:11.

America and I don't know what an Sadiq Khan was one of the

:16:12.:16:14.

campaigners, among others, among some unsavoury groups, that had

:16:15.:16:18.

tried to paint this in a very different light. The categorical

:16:19.:16:22.

judgment of the US court, and this is absolutely clear, there can be no

:16:23.:16:27.

doubt he is a convicted terrorist. Why does it imply that Sadiq Khan

:16:28.:16:31.

had any sympathy for his views? He categorically state he did not, he

:16:32.:16:35.

did not support anything Babar Ahmad was accused of and later charged. He

:16:36.:16:40.

was representing him to some extent in the legal capacity. Yes, the term

:16:41.:16:44.

friend has been disputed, and then as an MP. There is nothing there

:16:45.:16:50.

that suggest Sadiq Khan sympathised, supported or had any connection with

:16:51.:16:54.

what Babar Ahmad was doing or has done since. You will have two asking

:16:55.:16:58.

yourself what exactly the relationship was and clearly he's

:16:59.:17:01.

not happy to come and tell you. Except he has said categorically

:17:02.:17:06.

they were not friends. Is he lying? I don't know if that is the right

:17:07.:17:09.

word. I know there are questions about the relation ship and I know

:17:10.:17:13.

the Rose report is clear about using the word friends. However, will say

:17:14.:17:25.

again, it's a matter of grave national security concern and one

:17:26.:17:27.

has to understand what the relationship was and we need to

:17:28.:17:29.

understand exactly why a politician would be in a relationship of that

:17:30.:17:31.

kind, supporting someone who ends up a convicted terrorist. Caroline

:17:32.:17:34.

Flint, do you accept that Sadiq Khan to be more forthcoming about the

:17:35.:17:36.

relationship? He has not come on today and not been as open and frank

:17:37.:17:39.

as he could be about the relationship or not that he had with

:17:40.:17:42.

Babar Ahmad. I think he's been very open. He can't come here because

:17:43.:17:46.

he's doing a visit in Bromley as part of his campaign but he has been

:17:47.:17:50.

open about this. To say something about this, before he was an MP,

:17:51.:17:54.

Sadiq Khan was a lawyer, involved with lots of human rights

:17:55.:18:00.

organisations and just like Zac Goldsmith and Boris Johnson, the

:18:01.:18:02.

three of them were against the changes to the extradition treaty

:18:03.:18:05.

between the UK and the US. That is why all three of them, in different

:18:06.:18:09.

ways, were questioning the detainment of this gentleman because

:18:10.:18:12.

he was being detained without trial pending extradition. Do you accept

:18:13.:18:19.

they were friends? No, I don't. But he did visit Babar Ahmad in the

:18:20.:18:23.

category of friend. As you pointed out, in order to get a visit, these

:18:24.:18:26.

things are about filling in forms and what have you. What I think is

:18:27.:18:36.

clear is that the man himself as they are not friends, since he's

:18:37.:18:39.

been back, he bumped into him on the tube late at night and I think there

:18:40.:18:42.

was something else when there was a community thing. Just to talk about

:18:43.:18:44.

Sadiq, he is a British Muslim who has faced demonstrations outside of

:18:45.:18:47.

mosques by more extreme views within Islam, as based step threats for

:18:48.:18:53.

supporting same-sex marriage -- has faced death threats. He has spoken

:18:54.:18:57.

against extremism and the negative campaigning we are hearing, not only

:18:58.:18:59.

from this gentleman but also from Zac Goldsmith during the Mayall

:19:00.:19:04.

contest is despicable. I think it is good to have British Muslims like

:19:05.:19:08.

Sadiq Khan willing to stand up and speak against extremism which is why

:19:09.:19:12.

he will be such a brilliant mayor for London. Has Sadiq Khan got a

:19:13.:19:17.

case to answer? I certainly think it's incumbent upon him to be as

:19:18.:19:21.

open and frank as possible. I think thereafter slightly different

:19:22.:19:24.

responses he has given in the past. My understanding is he told the new

:19:25.:19:28.

statement a year ago that Babar Ahmad, he saw him as a constituent

:19:29.:19:33.

and a friend. I think there has been a shading of the definitions. The

:19:34.:19:39.

thing is, Caroline Flint, you could view it that when it suited him,

:19:40.:19:43.

Siddique Khan has gained favour in his constituency by making a big

:19:44.:19:47.

deal of how well and long he has known Babar Ahmad and now it looks

:19:48.:19:51.

as though he's a liability to him becoming mayor of London, he's

:19:52.:19:56.

trying to distance himself? Identity there's anything that the has said

:19:57.:20:00.

in which he has supported what Babar Ahmad was accused of all defended

:20:01.:20:04.

his position, once he pleaded guilty and was extradited to America. I

:20:05.:20:10.

think Sadiq, as long as I've known him, has been very clear about how

:20:11.:20:14.

we have two fight extremism in Islam, which is affecting so many

:20:15.:20:18.

people in our country and elsewhere. He has talked about as mayor,

:20:19.:20:21.

standing up for better community integration but also being a figure

:20:22.:20:26.

who will stand up for the British Muslim community, to argue against

:20:27.:20:28.

those who spread such poison and hate within our country. When people

:20:29.:20:33.

are saying, why aren't we see more British Muslim standing up and

:20:34.:20:37.

saying that? He will stand up and say that, not just for British

:20:38.:20:40.

Muslims but for Londoners. I'm afraid the record is very different,

:20:41.:20:45.

let's look the at the record and the fax clearly. You can't say he did

:20:46.:20:50.

that wrong because it is the same wind of thing Babar Ahmad is saying

:20:51.:20:54.

about the US justice system. There are clear records. Babar Ahmad is a

:20:55.:20:57.

convicted terrorist and Sadiq Khan filled out a form to visit him in

:20:58.:21:01.

prison as a friend. These are facts on the record. When you look at the

:21:02.:21:04.

campaign about Babar Ahmad, it is clear that Sadiq Khan was a leading

:21:05.:21:07.

light in that campaign in terms of the way he spoke out and others did

:21:08.:21:12.

not. One of the things he indulged what the narrative that somehow, US

:21:13.:21:16.

justice is not good enough for a victor Mike that. But Boris Johnson

:21:17.:21:21.

and Zac Goldsmith said the same. -- a victim like that. The campaign had

:21:22.:21:25.

support from other quarters, not just the de Caen. You are trying to

:21:26.:21:30.

tarnish Sadiq Khan by association. I'm not trying to tarnish anybody,

:21:31.:21:34.

I'm trying to make sure the national security of this country is not put

:21:35.:21:37.

in the hands of people who have associations they should not have.

:21:38.:21:40.

What I'm saying very clearly because that is a very serious accusation is

:21:41.:21:43.

that the record shows there were people involved with the campaign,

:21:44.:21:47.

when it comes to the extradition but that is a separate matter. The

:21:48.:21:51.

extradition law at the time, the campaign is a separate matter to

:21:52.:21:59.

what happened about Babar Ahmad and the idea that US justice is not good

:22:00.:22:02.

enough. He has been convicted as a terrorist in the US court and Sadiq

:22:03.:22:04.

Khan wrote questionable things in that regard about whether we can

:22:05.:22:07.

trust the US justice system. But he was not alone. We have to finish

:22:08.:22:08.

there. Thank you. Now, they voted to remain in 1975.

:22:09.:22:10.

Now they're campaigning to leave. They voted to leave in 1975.

:22:11.:22:13.

Now they're campaigning to remain. Why have so many politicians swapped

:22:14.:22:16.

sides in the Europe debate? So, three weeks in and it

:22:17.:22:18.

feels like three months. The campaign ahead of the referendum

:22:19.:22:24.

on our membership of the EU Besides those who had pretty much

:22:25.:22:29.

made up their minds long before, it leaves many remaining baffled,

:22:30.:22:34.

bamboozled and bored. I need a break just trying

:22:35.:22:37.

to make sense of it all. Are people inners or outers

:22:38.:22:40.

based on sovereignty, security, patriotism,

:22:41.:22:43.

or is it something else? The centre of political

:22:44.:22:47.

gravity, in fact. Go back to 1975 and it was

:22:48.:22:55.

the Labour Party who A major chunk of the party

:22:56.:22:59.

wanted to keep out. They thought the EEC,

:23:00.:23:04.

as it was then, would be an obstacle to central planning,

:23:05.:23:07.

nationalisation and expansion The Conservatives, on the other

:23:08.:23:09.

hand, were pretty much united. The UK economy was in the doldrums

:23:10.:23:15.

and Europe, they thought, was a place of dynamism

:23:16.:23:19.

and enterprise. They hoped some of it

:23:20.:23:21.

would rub off on the UK. In the 1970s, it could be argued

:23:22.:23:25.

that two of our main political parties were to the left

:23:26.:23:29.

of the centre of gravity in the EEC, The Conservatives felt that

:23:30.:23:34.

continued membership of the EEC would drag the domestic centre

:23:35.:23:40.

of gravity to the right. What they thought they would get

:23:41.:23:43.

from Europe was That was why Margaret Thatcher

:23:44.:23:46.

was strongly in favour of Europe until really quite

:23:47.:23:50.

late in the 1980s. Her Euroscepticism came much later

:23:51.:23:53.

than many people think. Fast forward 41 years

:23:54.:23:58.

and the parties' roles are reversed. A large chunk of the Parliamentary

:23:59.:24:02.

party and grassroots want out. Brussels, they feel,

:24:03.:24:07.

is a brake on dynamism and economic growth and is holding back

:24:08.:24:09.

the free market. Immigration is

:24:10.:24:12.

uncontrollable from inside. Labour MPs, with a few notable

:24:13.:24:15.

exceptions, want us to stay They point to the social protections

:24:16.:24:18.

and defence of workers' rights. So what has happened

:24:19.:24:24.

in the intervening years? All this can be explained

:24:25.:24:27.

by gravity again. Mrs Thatcher takes the Conservative

:24:28.:24:33.

Party further to the right than the centre of gravity

:24:34.:24:35.

in the EEC and Europe. This leaves a vacuum which,

:24:36.:24:40.

under Neil Kinnock and Tony Blair, moves Labour closer to the European

:24:41.:24:43.

centre of gravity, in fact, pretty much ending up

:24:44.:24:47.

in exactly the same space. The key factor that changed

:24:48.:24:52.

Margaret Thatcher's attitude was a speech by Jacques Delors,

:24:53.:24:55.

the president of the European Commission, to the Trade

:24:56.:24:59.

Union Congress in 1988. He said that the trade unions

:25:00.:25:04.

could get benefits from Brussels that they had not been able

:25:05.:25:06.

to get from Westminster. That led Margaret Thatcher to say

:25:07.:25:10.

in her Bruges speech shortly afterwards that we had not expelled

:25:11.:25:13.

socialism by the front door in Britain, to have it brought

:25:14.:25:17.

in by the back door from Brussels. Since then, all parties'

:25:18.:25:22.

gravitational centres have I'm calling it Dilnot's Universal

:25:23.:25:23.

Law of Referendums. And we're joined now by Lord Lawson,

:25:24.:25:31.

who voted to remain in 1975 but is now campaigning to leave,

:25:32.:25:49.

and Neil Kinnock, who was an outer in 1975 but is now campaigning

:25:50.:25:52.

to remain in the EU. Bear with us! Why have you changed

:25:53.:26:03.

your mind? In the first place, the European Union has changed. I was

:26:04.:26:08.

already a little bit against it because in a way, although I was an

:26:09.:26:12.

MP, I refuse to campaign in the referendum campaign of 1975 but I

:26:13.:26:18.

did, and I make no bones about it, vote to remain. But what has changed

:26:19.:26:22.

is the European Union. The fundamental change, the Rubicon, the

:26:23.:26:28.

watershed was the introduction of the single currency. A single

:26:29.:26:31.

currency only makes sense if there is a fiscal union, which means a

:26:32.:26:35.

political union, which means the United States of Europe. That was

:26:36.:26:40.

when it changed? Absolutely. I remember a great argument I had with

:26:41.:26:45.

Hugh Gaskell, a little more than 15 years ago. He was passionately

:26:46.:26:50.

against joining the European Union because it would be a political

:26:51.:26:54.

union, and he said it would be the end of 1000 years of history for

:26:55.:26:58.

this country. I argued with him that it was largely about trade. I was

:26:59.:27:03.

wrong and he was right. Why have you changed your mind? Because the

:27:04.:27:07.

realities have changed. When I campaigned in 1975 to come out of

:27:08.:27:15.

the European Community and the common market, as we then called it,

:27:16.:27:19.

I was concerned to a degree about Parliamentary sovereignty, although

:27:20.:27:23.

not as much as many of my colleagues, including Michael foot

:27:24.:27:29.

and Tony Benn. My main preoccupation was the effect

:27:30.:27:33.

and Tony Benn. My main preoccupation Northern Europe would have in

:27:34.:27:34.

pulling away jobs and investment from the UK, notably of course, the

:27:35.:27:41.

part of it which I represented in South Wales. Over the intervening

:27:42.:27:46.

years, it has become clear, not just that the single market of the

:27:47.:27:49.

European Union has a strong social dimension, which is very appealing

:27:50.:27:54.

to working people and those that I represented, but even more

:27:55.:27:58.

importantly, that at the very time I was arguing about my concerns

:27:59.:28:02.

relating to the pull of jobs and investment, the European Community

:28:03.:28:10.

was developing a very well-developed regional policy in order to counter

:28:11.:28:18.

that effect. To the extent that now, something around 200,000 jobs in

:28:19.:28:23.

Wales relate directly to the single market. So they would go in your

:28:24.:28:27.

mind? I'm not saying that they would go but they relate directly to the

:28:28.:28:31.

kind of trade and investment religion chips that we have been

:28:32.:28:33.

able to establish and develop over 43 years and -- relationships. And

:28:34.:28:39.

in addition between the agricultural support payments under regional

:28:40.:28:42.

payments, Wales, on the periphery, as we used to call it, is getting

:28:43.:28:47.

roughly 1.7 billion per year directly from the European Union.

:28:48.:28:51.

Although interestingly, the polls show that quite a lot of people in

:28:52.:28:54.

Wales are Eurosceptic and would like to pull out. The case in 1975, I

:28:55.:28:59.

made an eyesore to articulated the arguments them, that I'm one of

:29:00.:29:03.

those -- and those who believe that Wales could be best served of

:29:04.:29:06.

pulling out of European Union I think are wrong. Graham Brady, has

:29:07.:29:10.

there been this political shift for both parties, if you like? These

:29:11.:29:14.

gentlemen have changed their minds and so have many of their

:29:15.:29:18.

compatriots. But generally, have both parties shifted to the right on

:29:19.:29:22.

this issue? I'm not sure they have both shifted to the right but I

:29:23.:29:25.

think there's been an enormous movement in the population here. But

:29:26.:29:30.

also in other European countries. There was a poll a couple of weeks

:29:31.:29:33.

ago that said 48% of Dutch people want to leave the European Union for

:29:34.:29:38.

precisely the reasons Nigel has articulated. People are seeing the

:29:39.:29:40.

fact this is now a very different thing. It does not fit with national

:29:41.:29:45.

democracy. It is taking choices away from people and preventing us from

:29:46.:29:48.

running our own countries in the way we want to run them. The problems

:29:49.:29:52.

they have got in the Eurozone, a crisis which is unresolved, the

:29:53.:29:55.

problem of dealing with migration which they have no way of resolving,

:29:56.:29:59.

it is coming home to people that the only way to settle these things is

:30:00.:30:03.

to change very profoundly from the settlement we have at the moment.

:30:04.:30:11.

Is there a point that actually in the 1970s the Tories were happy

:30:12.:30:19.

about the European project? They saw it as more entrepreneurial, more

:30:20.:30:22.

businesslike than this country was at that time during the turbulent

:30:23.:30:27.

1970s? Now they see it more as a left-wing venture, more socially

:30:28.:30:31.

cohesive, and that's why the Tories have gone off it? I do not think it

:30:32.:30:37.

is about left and right at all. What I would say about the change that

:30:38.:30:41.

has happened in the European Union, and also the fact it is quite right

:30:42.:30:47.

in theory as your correspondent pointed out that at that time the

:30:48.:30:52.

British economy was not doing very well, in the 70s. The European

:30:53.:30:55.

economy seemed to be doing very well. That carried an attraction.

:30:56.:31:00.

What has happened since then, thanks to the refunds of the Thatcher in

:31:01.:31:03.

error, we now have the strongest economy in Europe. -- the re-forms

:31:04.:31:10.

of the Thatcher era. Following the single currency the euro area is a

:31:11.:31:20.

disaster. I was Chancellor of the Exchequer for many years, I have had

:31:21.:31:24.

some responsibility for looking at economic policy and how economies

:31:25.:31:27.

work. In my considered judgment our success has got nothing to do with

:31:28.:31:32.

the European Union. Indeed we would do far better economic and if we

:31:33.:31:37.

were to leave. Any of the past that would be available after exit,

:31:38.:31:40.

whether it was the Norway option, Switzerland, Canadian or just

:31:41.:31:47.

relying on them would not give us adequate cover for the export of our

:31:48.:31:52.

services, including financial services to the remainder of the

:31:53.:31:55.

European Union and that could be devastating on its effect for the

:31:56.:31:59.

whole economy. As an ex-Chancellor, Nigel, you know very well that we

:32:00.:32:03.

depend very substantially, partly as a result of the changes that you

:32:04.:32:09.

referred to being made, very substantially on being a service

:32:10.:32:12.

economy with a very strong financial services sector. Even countries like

:32:13.:32:16.

Switzerland have not been able to negotiate. We would not have access

:32:17.:32:21.

the way we do if we left the European Union. Another country that

:32:22.:32:28.

has been able to negotiate for access? Forget all this nonsense.

:32:29.:32:32.

The great majority of the world is outside the European Union. The vast

:32:33.:32:37.

bulk of the world. Most of these countries now are doing well

:32:38.:32:40.

economic league, better than most of the countries in the European union.

:32:41.:32:46.

Take a service that is close to your heart, television programmes. Do you

:32:47.:32:51.

think suddenly it will be impossible to sell television programmes to the

:32:52.:32:54.

European Union? That is way above my pay grade. You are saying that we

:32:55.:33:00.

can get the access that we have now when we are not members of the

:33:01.:33:04.

European Union. We will do far better. Gentleman, hold fire. I am

:33:05.:33:12.

not prepared to gamble my grandchildren's future. You should

:33:13.:33:17.

be concerned about being a self-governing democracy. We are.

:33:18.:33:21.

That brings me back, on a self-governing authority, how much

:33:22.:33:24.

of this is about sovereignty, or is this to some extent a red herring?

:33:25.:33:29.

For you and some of your older colleagues in the Labour Party, they

:33:30.:33:32.

have gone on a political journey, are you surprised that there are

:33:33.:33:37.

hardly any in the Shadow Cabinet who would campaign vigorously to leave?

:33:38.:33:42.

I am not surprised. I think compared to 1975 we are in a different type

:33:43.:33:45.

of world, much more interconnected. And a different type of party? A

:33:46.:33:50.

different type of party but we more interconnected. It is about the

:33:51.:33:54.

economy but it is about security as well and things like the

:33:55.:33:57.

environment. We cannot put up Fortress Britain around our shores

:33:58.:34:03.

to deal with problems of pollution. But we are not part of the Schengen

:34:04.:34:09.

zone now. I hear this, we are not part of Schengen, we are not part of

:34:10.:34:16.

the euro, we can make decisions. I hate the whole project fear thing, I

:34:17.:34:20.

want us to have a debate about the real world. If we leave the European

:34:21.:34:24.

Union, the questions are still not being answered as to what the world

:34:25.:34:28.

would look like for Great Britain. Because if we want to trade like

:34:29.:34:31.

America, like other countries around the world, like the Canadians, the

:34:32.:34:36.

Swiss, the Norwegians, they will have to die loot what they can ask

:34:37.:34:38.

for in order to trade within the EU. A simple vision of what it looks

:34:39.:34:47.

like for Britain out, never mind comparisons with other countries who

:34:48.:34:50.

have their own arrangements, how would it be unique for Britain? A

:34:51.:34:57.

free democracy that makes its own laws can decide who governs them and

:34:58.:35:00.

boots out if they don't like them. And the ability to control our

:35:01.:35:04.

borders. But we do control our own borders. There are people coming

:35:05.:35:10.

into the United Kingdom without us having any control whatsoever. And

:35:11.:35:13.

when it comes to trade we're seeing service export is twice as fast to

:35:14.:35:19.

countries outside the EU compared to those inside. But if we had to rely

:35:20.:35:25.

entirely on World Trade Organisation arrangements we certainly would not

:35:26.:35:29.

get the kind of cover from those kind of arrangements that we get as

:35:30.:35:34.

being part of the European Union. Most services in this country will

:35:35.:35:40.

tell you, the single market has been resisted. It will happen. People

:35:41.:35:46.

have been saying that for 30 years. You know very well that ever since

:35:47.:35:49.

the establishment of the single market by the government of which

:35:50.:35:55.

Nigel was a part, and it was a great stride forward, there have been

:35:56.:36:00.

incremental improvements to extend the single market in services and

:36:01.:36:04.

that is ongoing at this very moment. It will continue and it will be

:36:05.:36:09.

achieved. One way it will not be achieved, of course, is if the

:36:10.:36:12.

United Kingdom is not there to argue for it. For we finish, can David

:36:13.:36:17.

Cameron survive as Prime Minister if the UK votes to leave? I hope the UK

:36:18.:36:24.

will vote to leave, and when that happens I think it is important that

:36:25.:36:27.

David Cameron remains Prime Minister, I would like a period of

:36:28.:36:31.

stability and calm. We should have a period of discussion about how we

:36:32.:36:36.

approach the renegotiation. Two years in which to renegotiate, I

:36:37.:36:41.

thought you would be arguing that the last thing you would want is

:36:42.:36:47.

huge uproar and upheaval when they are fighting for our country's life.

:36:48.:36:53.

Does Nigel Lawson agree? Should he and can he remain? It is his

:36:54.:36:56.

responsibility after a vote which I hope will come to leave the European

:36:57.:37:00.

Union, it is his responsibility to implement the will of the British

:37:01.:37:04.

people. Is it realistic for him to stay? Perfectly realistic. What

:37:05.:37:10.

about Jeremy Corbyn, do you think he is as enthusiastic about remaining

:37:11.:37:14.

as you are? He has made a strong commitment and he has made that very

:37:15.:37:18.

evident. Whether he has got the detailed engagement that I have been

:37:19.:37:22.

fortunate enough to have I do not know. But I do know that in terms of

:37:23.:37:25.

principles, opportunities, safeguarding the future of the

:37:26.:37:29.

British people, he is very favourable. Would you like to see

:37:30.:37:34.

him campaign a bit more visibly? He's got a certain preoccupation

:37:35.:37:38.

with the current elections. I anticipate that after those

:37:39.:37:41.

elections he and his colleagues will be fully engaged in arguing for a

:37:42.:37:47.

Remain vote. Gentleman, you are fully engaged in arguing for both

:37:48.:37:51.

sides of this argument. Now to Scotland.

:37:52.:37:54.

On Saturday, Nicola Sturgeon told the SNP spring conference that

:37:55.:37:56.

if her party was returned to government in May,

:37:57.:37:58.

the party would begin to build a new case for Scottish independence

:37:59.:38:01.

Here's the First Minister, telling conference about her

:38:02.:38:04.

"beautiful dream" of an independent Scotland.

:38:05.:38:09.

Our dream is for Scotland to become independent,

:38:10.:38:13.

to be in the driving seat of our own destiny,

:38:14.:38:16.

to shape our own future, and on the basis of

:38:17.:38:20.

equality, with our family across the British Isles

:38:21.:38:23.

and our friends across the globe, to play our part in building

:38:24.:38:26.

That is a beautiful dream and we believe in it.

:38:27.:38:34.

Can any of the Unionist parties stop her in pursuing that beautiful

:38:35.:38:48.

dream? And the Scottish Liberal Democrat

:38:49.:38:49.

Leader, Willie Rennie, The Liberal Democrats are heading

:38:50.:38:58.

for almost total wipe-out in Scotland. Could the Scottish Liberal

:38:59.:39:02.

Democrats become extinct? This is dismal tour, we have a great chance

:39:03.:39:08.

of growing. For two reasons. If you look at our team in Hollywood, we've

:39:09.:39:12.

punched well above our weight in holding the SNP to account on the

:39:13.:39:18.

police, investigating in colleges. Also the second thing, we've got a

:39:19.:39:21.

big, bold package for this election. We are standing up for an investment

:39:22.:39:27.

of a penny on income tax for education. Like Labour? Actually

:39:28.:39:32.

yes, like Labour, but we are proposing it for education, to have

:39:33.:39:37.

a transformational effect of ?475 million for a pupil premium for

:39:38.:39:41.

nursery education but also for our colleges. It is different from

:39:42.:39:44.

Labour but it is bold and I think it is progressive. It may be bold, but

:39:45.:39:50.

to anybody listening, policy suggestions might be eye-catching

:39:51.:39:53.

but where is the evidence people are listening to you to deliver it? The

:39:54.:39:58.

latest polls in February, Liberal Democrats polling four to 6%. We

:39:59.:40:02.

know the polls are not always correct but even so, where is your

:40:03.:40:09.

evidence? In different parts of Scotland our message is penetrating,

:40:10.:40:15.

and we can see it. How can you see it? Will it turn into seats? Yes, I

:40:16.:40:19.

believe we are going to go this time. How many? It would be wrong

:40:20.:40:23.

for me to start predicting. You sound very confident? I am, because

:40:24.:40:29.

we have a bold package and a team that punches above its weight. If

:40:30.:40:34.

you think it is a good idea to have the Scottish parliament dominated by

:40:35.:40:37.

the Scottish National party, you only have to look at some of the

:40:38.:40:40.

mistakes they've made in the last few years to realise that is not a

:40:41.:40:44.

good thing. We need diversity, a strong voice for liberal values that

:40:45.:40:48.

I stand up for. Would you ever consider joining any of the other

:40:49.:40:51.

parties in the Scottish parliament? If you are worried about the

:40:52.:40:56.

dominance of the SNP, and that shows no signs of abating, why not join

:40:57.:41:00.

another party? Because I am a Liberal Democrat. You could join

:41:01.:41:05.

forces. We work together on a variety of things. We worked

:41:06.:41:08.

together on the referendum, on budget. And you share this policy

:41:09.:41:12.

with Scottish Labour, who are also struggling, this idea of a penny on

:41:13.:41:16.

income tax. Wouldn't it be worthwhile in your bid to stop the

:41:17.:41:21.

rise of the SNP to join forces? The best way to get the most votes in

:41:22.:41:25.

the election is to be clear, distinct, and campaigned vigorously

:41:26.:41:28.

in the part of the country that you've got a great chance of

:41:29.:41:31.

winning, and that's exactly what we are doing. I'm not interesting in

:41:32.:41:38.

pre-election pact is, that's for other people to talk about. I am

:41:39.:41:40.

interested in making progress in this election. I think we have

:41:41.:41:44.

turned the corner. We had a difficult five years. But this time

:41:45.:41:48.

round with a bold package and a great team we have a great chance of

:41:49.:41:52.

progressing. So nobody has talked to you about joining forces on

:41:53.:41:55.

anything. What about if the Conservatives leapfrog labour? Ruth

:41:56.:41:59.

Davidson was putting that forward, cosy at a bail denied it would ever

:42:00.:42:04.

happen. Again, would you do a deal with the Conservatives? Is that a

:42:05.:42:09.

dismal prospect? Dismal prospect of having the Conservatives who talk

:42:10.:42:13.

about the SNP all the time, the SNP who talk about the Conservatives all

:42:14.:42:17.

the time, feeding off each other. One determined in part to break up

:42:18.:42:21.

the European Union, the other determined to break up the United

:42:22.:42:24.

Kingdom. We need parties that stand up for progressive politics and

:42:25.:42:29.

keeping our country together. If the EU referendum delivers a Leave vote

:42:30.:42:33.

in June, is there a scenario where the Scottish Liberal Democrats would

:42:34.:42:37.

support the idea of a second Scottish independence referendum? I

:42:38.:42:41.

want to stop all this, and that is the danger in the Conservatives just

:42:42.:42:44.

now with their divisions on Europe, they are really risking another

:42:45.:42:48.

independence referendum. We could end up using the two great unions of

:42:49.:42:52.

the United Kingdom, partly because the Conservatives are so divided on

:42:53.:42:56.

the issue, as we heard from Nicola Sturgeon in the clip, she is

:42:57.:42:59.

determined to have another independence referendum. We should

:43:00.:43:02.

be moving on for the next five years to talk about the big issues that

:43:03.:43:07.

face this country. It is about protecting the environment,

:43:08.:43:09.

investing in education, keeping what's best in our NHS, but also

:43:10.:43:14.

guaranteeing Civil Liberties. That's the focus for the next five years,

:43:15.:43:18.

not all this constitutional forever Meisel gave think that those two

:43:19.:43:22.

parties are determined to do. -- nasal gazing.

:43:23.:43:26.

Now, time to have a look at some of the stories coming up

:43:27.:43:29.

On Tuesday, the Leave and Remain campaigns with be marking 100 days

:43:30.:43:33.

until polling day in the EU referendum,

:43:34.:43:35.

Also on Tuesday, the Northern Powerhouse will be in the spotlight

:43:36.:43:38.

when Lord Adonis releases the final report of his

:43:39.:43:41.

National Infrastructure Commission ahead of the Budget.

:43:42.:43:44.

That's on Wednesday, when George Osborne when he says

:43:45.:43:46.

equivalent to 50p in every ?100 of Government spending.

:43:47.:43:53.

We'll have live coverage here on BBC2, of course.

:43:54.:43:57.

On Thursday, David Cameron will be meeting with other EU leaders

:43:58.:44:02.

in Brussels, where they are supposed to be finalising the deal

:44:03.:44:05.

We're joined now by Tom Newton Dunn from the Sun and The Guardian's

:44:06.:44:10.

Tom, let's start with your story about the Queen backing Brexit, was

:44:11.:44:25.

Michael Gove your source? Nice try. We never talk about our sources. At

:44:26.:44:29.

least I was open and transparent about it. He shut it down. So where

:44:30.:44:39.

does it go from here? Buckingham Palace has launched a formal

:44:40.:44:42.

complaint with the press watchdog and yet there are still stories that

:44:43.:44:48.

she was upset because of a so-called sermon and Nick Clegg, what say you?

:44:49.:44:52.

We say we standing by this, defending the complaint vigorously.

:44:53.:44:56.

We expect that want to be interesting as it plays out. I

:44:57.:44:59.

cannot tell you exactly what the Palace have complained about because

:45:00.:45:02.

it is confidential but it will be interesting when that emerges

:45:03.:45:06.

itself. We are taking the story on a little bit in our paper and have

:45:07.:45:09.

another account of the quite extraordinary exchange to win the

:45:10.:45:13.

Queen, Nick Clegg in Windsor Castle a few years ago. This time from a

:45:14.:45:17.

royal courtiers saying it was Nick Clegg that started the debate by

:45:18.:45:22.

giving the Queen sermon, and the Queen responded reasonably

:45:23.:45:25.

witheringly, so the story goes on. Of course there is the urgent

:45:26.:45:30.

question tabled by Tom Watson in the House of Commons just now, as we

:45:31.:45:33.

just discovered, about the Privy Council and various different

:45:34.:45:36.

infringements he believes have happened in it. So it will roll on

:45:37.:45:38.

and on. At least you know that one of the

:45:39.:45:47.

prime views of this show is the Queen so on Georges caught

:45:48.:45:51.

everything you just that. Could the budget be rather boring? Certainly,

:45:52.:45:54.

people have not been very interested so far, largely because, as you know

:45:55.:45:58.

we're right in the middle of the election and lots of the good

:45:59.:46:02.

stories, of course, Tom with the one around the Queen and we're looking

:46:03.:46:04.

forward to that confidential complaint, when the sun breaks it in

:46:05.:46:13.

the future! Do you? LAUGHTER I do think it is an important moment

:46:14.:46:17.

the George Osborne. He still has his eyes on the Tory crown and he will

:46:18.:46:21.

want to make a real statement on Wednesday, despite the fact he has

:46:22.:46:24.

been getting us ready for the fact there could be spending cuts,

:46:25.:46:28.

further spending cuts to come because of this ?4 billion of extra

:46:29.:46:32.

savings that they need to find. The thing he has been talking about is

:46:33.:46:35.

his manifesto promises to the British people. Really, he's going

:46:36.:46:40.

to want to make progress on that raising of the upper threshold, the

:46:41.:46:45.

raising of the personal allowance. I believe he is a political Chancellor

:46:46.:46:48.

and Isis Becky will want to pull out a rabbit of the hat. I'm sure he

:46:49.:46:52.

will and you are right but the problem is, he does not have much

:46:53.:46:55.

room for manoeuvre because of his own rules and wanting to get a

:46:56.:47:00.

surplus. Do you think he's beginning to regret that? He's written an

:47:01.:47:04.

awful lot of checks at the last general election in the Conservative

:47:05.:47:07.

Party manifesto, some of which we just heard about. Even in the good

:47:08.:47:11.

times, it was going to be hard to catch the Czechs, tax cuts for low

:47:12.:47:14.

income and higher income earners across the board. Now the times are

:47:15.:47:18.

even tighter, he's an even more physical trouble. Chancellors always

:47:19.:47:22.

find money from somewhere when they need it, that's the rule of all

:47:23.:47:26.

budgets but this one has a second dynamic which is the EU referendum

:47:27.:47:29.

which is pervading everything we say and do, tragically, down here. His

:47:30.:47:33.

issue is, he would love to do something bold, the first budget of

:47:34.:47:38.

a new parliament, the time to really cause trouble and dig in but he

:47:39.:47:41.

can't because the Tory MPs almost certainly won't back him if it's

:47:42.:47:45.

controversial. Also desperate to try to prove that the party is still

:47:46.:47:48.

working, the government is still united and they can still do

:47:49.:47:51.

interesting things but I think when it comes to it, he's going to on the

:47:52.:47:55.

side of caution and it will probably be most boring budget we have seen

:47:56.:47:59.

in a long time. -- he's going to go on the side of caution. Now I'm

:48:00.:48:04.

disappointed. Taking that into account, only ?4 billion worth of

:48:05.:48:09.

cuts, it may be tempting to raise fuel duty and it may be tempting to

:48:10.:48:13.

do something, as Tom alluded to, to throw some red meat to the Tory

:48:14.:48:18.

grassroots. That he's already been warned against taxing businesses

:48:19.:48:21.

further. Is it going to be mainly from welfare? I think the difficulty

:48:22.:48:27.

for him is where he finds the money. He's already backed off pension

:48:28.:48:31.

reforms because of Tory backbenchers. As you say, fuel duty,

:48:32.:48:35.

there were hints he might increase it by RPI but there are something

:48:36.:48:39.

like 160 backbenchers who will try to stop him from doing that,

:48:40.:48:43.

including a lot on his own backbenchers. One thing we already

:48:44.:48:47.

know is going to happen is the ?1.2 billion saving from reforms to

:48:48.:48:50.

disability benefits and I suspect that's an area where we will see a

:48:51.:48:54.

big push back from Labour and charities tomorrow, these reforms to

:48:55.:48:58.

the personal independence payment. Anywhere else that he tries to save

:48:59.:49:03.

money on something Labour will rake over. We can expect a lot of stealth

:49:04.:49:08.

taxes, like increases in insurance premiums, that are already going to

:49:09.:49:11.

annoy motorists so maybe he won't want to go further with fuel duty as

:49:12.:49:15.

well. Thank you for joining us. Enjoy it, anyway, even if it is not

:49:16.:49:17.

as exciting as you hoped. Now, are your ready

:49:18.:49:20.

for BoJo versus Obama? Boris Johnson has criticised

:49:21.:49:22.

Barack Obama, following reports that he is preparing to come

:49:23.:49:24.

to the UK to tell us to stay in the the EU, calling it

:49:25.:49:27.

"a piece of outrageous Now that would be a head-to-head

:49:28.:49:30.

debate worth watching! As he was born in the US,

:49:31.:49:38.

Boris is one of the few UK politicians

:49:39.:49:41.

eligible to become President. for a documentary that

:49:42.:49:45.

goes out tonight, I asked him about his

:49:46.:49:50.

ambitions closer to home. How has it changed,

:49:51.:49:54.

your relationship with the Prime Minister, since you decided

:49:55.:49:57.

to campaign for Leave? You know, you have got

:49:58.:49:59.

to understand that my relationships and friendships

:50:00.:50:01.

with government go back They are pretty much invulnerable.

:50:02.:50:02.

Are they? Yes, to any short-term,

:50:03.:50:09.

you know, disagreements So you are still friends?

:50:10.:50:11.

Yes, of course. You once said, which is true,

:50:12.:50:14.

that you had a greater chance of being reincarnated as an olive...

:50:15.:50:22.

Yes. You remember, than

:50:23.:50:24.

you did about being Or a baked bean, or decapitated

:50:25.:50:25.

by Frisbee or locked But actually, looking at it now,

:50:26.:50:29.

there's no one more likely to be Honestly, David Cameron

:50:30.:50:35.

is doing a great job, everyone knows that and there's

:50:36.:50:39.

a long way to go before And we're joined now

:50:40.:50:41.

by Boris Johnson's biogapher, Welcome to the show. Opposing David

:50:42.:50:53.

Cameron is one thing but do you think Boris has bitten off more than

:50:54.:50:57.

he can chew in having a go at Barack Obama? Orange Mokoka he's had a go

:50:58.:51:00.

at him before about parking fines, which the American Embassy in London

:51:01.:51:04.

refuses to pay. It is one of his best columns, actually, I think. It

:51:05.:51:08.

is a point which will have struck almost anyone who has been to

:51:09.:51:09.

America that they have a very strong almost anyone who has been to

:51:10.:51:13.

sense of nationhood and you can't do anything which infringes American

:51:14.:51:23.

sovereignty and yet, here they are, advising us to join the European

:51:24.:51:25.

Union. It's a completely contradictory position and Boris and

:51:26.:51:28.

many of us has bolted but he put it very trenchantly today. His speech

:51:29.:51:31.

on Brexit last week could only be described, I suppose as vintage

:51:32.:51:33.

Boris but is it the right approach to winning, first the referendum

:51:34.:51:37.

campaign and then that really do ship? I think he's a bit like the

:51:38.:51:41.

British Army, whenever we get in a war, we usually have several

:51:42.:51:44.

catastrophes before we get the hang of it. He's starting to get the hang

:51:45.:51:48.

of it, I think but he was in a mess to begin with because his initial

:51:49.:51:51.

pitch was he would do a better deal than Cameron and that was not

:51:52.:51:55.

sufficient differentiation. It certainly did not involve a

:51:56.:51:57.

trenchant defence of national sovereignty which many Tory

:51:58.:52:02.

Eurosceptics would think was at the heart of the argument. Do you think

:52:03.:52:07.

everything Boris does is seen through the prism of becoming Prime

:52:08.:52:11.

Minister? No, I think he also wants to amuse us. I would say most MPs, I

:52:12.:52:19.

don't know about present company but most MPs, the thought has

:52:20.:52:22.

occasionally crossed their minds, I think that they might and certainly,

:52:23.:52:25.

some of the most implausible candidates have stood for the

:52:26.:52:28.

leadership of both the Labour and Conservative Party in the past so I

:52:29.:52:31.

don't think you can hold it against Boris but he thinks about it as

:52:32.:52:35.

well. Sometimes implausible candidates win! Who are you thinking

:52:36.:52:40.

of? Are you running for the leadership? You will be the

:52:41.:52:46.

returning officer! That's not very ambitious. You could do better. It

:52:47.:52:54.

would sue John Mantle. But you say he had this motivation to amuse us.

:52:55.:52:59.

Would the public view him as an amusing mayor of London but

:53:00.:53:03.

certainly not someone they could consider as Prime Minister? Identity

:53:04.:53:07.

no because both as a journalist and a politician, he is extremely agile

:53:08.:53:11.

and that can be dismissed as opportunism and it can also be

:53:12.:53:14.

regarded as a kind of enlightened pragmatism, because when the story

:53:15.:53:18.

changes he changes his view. It depends what the want. But if the

:53:19.:53:24.

millions of undecided voters need reassurance at the moment, then

:53:25.:53:28.

Boris jumping about all over the place may not provide it. Was it

:53:29.:53:33.

risky, his decision? You know many people have accused him of not being

:53:34.:53:37.

authentic, that he was somebody who really was an instinctive inner. Do

:53:38.:53:43.

you believe that? It was risky but it was an unenviable choice. Either

:53:44.:53:48.

he became a loyal member of the Cameron - Osborne machine... But if

:53:49.:53:51.

that is what he believes, people say you should support what you believe

:53:52.:53:56.

rather than just be pragmatic? He believes he would be a lot better

:53:57.:54:00.

than George Osborne and indie David Cameron. He's a lot brighter and

:54:01.:54:03.

prepared to take the necessary risks, to drive a hard deal in

:54:04.:54:08.

Brussels. But will he get on the ballot paper? If that was the cow

:54:09.:54:10.

collision that he needed to guarantee being on the ballot, to

:54:11.:54:14.

differentiate himself between him and George Osborne before he went to

:54:15.:54:19.

the grassroots, do you think you will end up...? Identity no because

:54:20.:54:22.

the frontrunner has not won this race since 1955 when Anthony Eden

:54:23.:54:26.

succeeded Churchill so it's very unpredictable. If in the next few

:54:27.:54:30.

months, he confirms his position as the darling of many Tory activists,

:54:31.:54:34.

then many Tory MPs will be bitterly criticised if they don't make him

:54:35.:54:38.

one of the last two. Is Simon Heffer right when he says only a handful of

:54:39.:54:41.

MPs will support Boris before we get to the grassroots? I'm going to be

:54:42.:54:49.

very boring... Don't be boring! I am applying to be the returning officer

:54:50.:54:53.

so I don't think I should say. You have thought about this before you

:54:54.:55:00.

came on. I'm disappointed in you. Are there only a few MPs who would

:55:01.:55:04.

support Boris? I'm not even asking you, of your colleagues, would only

:55:05.:55:09.

a few of them support? I've no idea, it is entirely up to my colleagues.

:55:10.:55:14.

You must've had those conversations, surely. I have lots of private

:55:15.:55:19.

conversations. And the word Private is instructive. Does Boris on the

:55:20.:55:23.

mentally believe in anything? Yes, lots of things, I would say. --

:55:24.:55:29.

fundamentally believe. He's a merry England Conservative, let people

:55:30.:55:32.

enjoy themselves, he's completely uncensored aura is and he could not

:55:33.:55:35.

stand up for some thing like marriage. -- an censorious. He wants

:55:36.:55:42.

the genius of the induce people to be expressed in whatever way John

:55:43.:55:47.

Bull happens to think is a good idea at the time. Caroline Flint, do you

:55:48.:55:52.

find him using? On occasion and I have to say, some people like to

:55:53.:55:56.

portray Boris Johnson as some kind of buffoon. I've never

:55:57.:56:00.

underestimated him. I don't know him personally but I've always thought,

:56:01.:56:03.

the way in which he goes on zip wires and what have you is part of,

:56:04.:56:09.

I think, quite calculated, in some respects, it's part of his

:56:10.:56:11.

personality but it is also to deflect sometimes from other things

:56:12.:56:14.

that I think a more serious. It's interesting he's having a go at

:56:15.:56:18.

America and Barack Obama on the fact that they would say, we find it

:56:19.:56:22.

easier to deal with a block than different countries. When the people

:56:23.:56:27.

who want to leave the European Union wanted, they use America as an

:56:28.:56:29.

example of why we should leave and then we don't -- they don't like it

:56:30.:56:33.

when the American president says he likes working with the EU. I think

:56:34.:56:36.

it's a bit rich. Thank you for joining us.

:56:37.:56:38.

And viewers in London can watch the documentary,

:56:39.:56:40.

Boris: The London Years, on BBC One at 7:30pm.

:56:41.:56:42.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

:56:43.:56:46.

The question was, who or what did George Osborne ask to "keep it down"

:56:47.:56:50.

while he was writing his Budget in the House of Commons yesterday?

:56:51.:56:53.

Was it A - noisy protesters, B - squeaky House of Commons mice

:56:54.:56:56.

or D - Top Gear, who were filming outside?

:56:57.:57:00.

So Caroline and Graham, what's the correct answer?

:57:01.:57:02.

Matt LeBlanc, doing Top Gear outside. I think we can show you

:57:03.:57:10.

some footage, or maybe only the picture of the team. What do you

:57:11.:57:16.

think? No, here it is. Do you think it was inappropriate to film by the

:57:17.:57:21.

Senate after over the weekend -- by the Cenotaph. It looks a bit close

:57:22.:57:26.

for comfort. I've not seen this before. You would have said no? I

:57:27.:57:31.

think there should be an exclusion zone. The defence that was put out

:57:32.:57:36.

earlier was that it was a long lens and it was not near Cenotaph but

:57:37.:57:39.

unless it was a really long lens, it looked quite close. Had you seen it

:57:40.:57:45.

before? I saw the photographs but it looks very close to the Cenotaph,

:57:46.:57:49.

even closer than the better grass suggested. Presenter Chris Evans has

:57:50.:57:53.

said the footage will not be used following the complaints. Are you a

:57:54.:57:59.

fan of the programme anyway, Graham? Yes, I think it is usually fun. It

:58:00.:58:02.

is good that they push the boundaries but maybe sometimes they

:58:03.:58:06.

push them a bit too far. You are not a returning officer on this or you

:58:07.:58:11.

can safely say. What about you? I don't really watch it but hearing

:58:12.:58:18.

Jeremy Clarkson said we should stay European Union, how interesting is

:58:19.:58:24.

that? You brought it back to that! So Europe larks and fan? His family

:58:25.:58:29.

are from near my constituency. I've not seen him in my constituency in a

:58:30.:58:33.

genius but there you go. I bet you never thought that would be so

:58:34.:58:34.

fascinating. That's all for today.

:58:35.:58:36.

Thanks to our guests. The one o'clock news is starting

:58:37.:58:38.

over on BBC One now. I'll be here at noon tomorrow

:58:39.:58:41.

with all the big political stories And we will no doubt be talking

:58:42.:58:44.

about the EU and the budget. Do join me then.

:58:45.:58:52.

Goodbye.

:58:53.:58:54.

Jo Coburn is joined by former Europe ministers Graham Brady and Caroline Flint to discuss the latest news from Westminster. Includes discussion around the EU referendum, the latest on the terror attacks in Turkey and a look ahead to Wednesday's Budget.


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