26/05/2016 Daily Politics


26/05/2016

Jo Coburn and Andrew Neil are joined by Iain Duncan Smith to discuss EU migration, benefits sanctions and meritocracy.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

Afternoon folks - Welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:36.:00:38.

Immigration is front and centre of the referendum campaign today

:00:39.:00:41.

as new figures show net migration to the UK rises to the second

:00:42.:00:44.

Leave campaigners say it shows that "immigration is out of control".

:00:45.:00:55.

Those who want us to remain in the EU warn against the creation

:00:56.:00:58.

The Government says it's considering far-reaching changes

:00:59.:01:04.

to pension rules as a means of saving the UK's steel industry.

:01:05.:01:07.

Salford's new Mayor says the Government's welfare reforms

:01:08.:01:13.

are having a detrimental impact on vulnerable people in his area.

:01:14.:01:15.

And, can this woman save us from alien invasion?

:01:16.:01:23.

We reveal the sci-fi cameo of Scotland's First Minister.

:01:24.:01:31.

All that in the next hour and with us for the whole programme

:01:32.:01:34.

today is the former Work and Pensions Secretary

:01:35.:01:36.

Now, if Iain was still doing that job he'd probably be far too busy

:01:37.:01:40.

But, in case you were unaware, Iain rather spectacularly relieved

:01:41.:01:45.

himself of the burden of public office which means he's now free

:01:46.:01:48.

to devote all his efforts to the referendum campaign

:01:49.:01:50.

and appear on little programmes like this one.

:01:51.:01:53.

As we come on air the Business Secretary Sajid Javid is making

:01:54.:02:02.

a statement to the House of Commons about the future of

:02:03.:02:05.

Ministers have been considering changes

:02:06.:02:08.

to pensions benefits in order to cut the liabilities

:02:09.:02:11.

of the old British Steel pension fund which is now owned by Tata.

:02:12.:02:16.

It's thought the size of the pension deficit has been a major

:02:17.:02:19.

deterrent to potential buyers of the steel business.

:02:20.:02:24.

One of the options is to switch the rate that the pensions keep pace

:02:25.:02:27.

with prices from the higher RPI measure to the lower CPI measure.

:02:28.:02:32.

Former Lib Dem pensions minister, Steve Webb, had this warning

:02:33.:02:34.

about the wider implications for other pensioners

:02:35.:02:36.

It's not the use of the lower Consumer Prices Index

:02:37.:02:46.

that's really the issue - it's a perfectly good

:02:47.:02:48.

It's more that the steelworkers had a right, in their scheme,

:02:49.:02:52.

to a higher measure of inflation and once you take away the principle

:02:53.:02:55.

that the rights you have already built up can be taken away,

:02:56.:02:58.

That's really the issue, rather than how we measure inflation.

:02:59.:03:02.

You worked with Steve Webb in the work and pensions department, and he

:03:03.:03:08.

is something of an expert on pensions. So he knows what he's

:03:09.:03:12.

talking about. He does. I enjoyed working with him. Good colleague. Is

:03:13.:03:17.

he right about the dangerous precedent which would be set? I have

:03:18.:03:21.

not seen what the government is proposing. I would say that there is

:03:22.:03:28.

an element in what Steve said this morning, which is a concern, which

:03:29.:03:33.

is... I can understand the need to find some sort of solution to the

:03:34.:03:37.

steel industry problem. And to get those debts down. But there is just

:03:38.:03:43.

an element he is talking about, once you start one exception, then all of

:03:44.:03:47.

a sudden you get a line-up of exceptions. They say if it is OK to

:03:48.:03:50.

the steel industry, then what about us? And because there is a huge

:03:51.:03:55.

deficit out there, and this is a huge problem overhanging a lot of

:03:56.:04:00.

industries... Do you agree with him? It may not work. I don't know how

:04:01.:04:07.

they will ring fence or isolate this as a single issue problem. If they

:04:08.:04:10.

are doing that and they have found a way I am happy to listen, but I'm

:04:11.:04:14.

not sure that is what is happening. If the government can unilaterally

:04:15.:04:20.

change the terms of a scheme for those who are working and those who

:04:21.:04:23.

have retired in the steel industry, so they have worked all of their

:04:24.:04:27.

lives, they are nearly 80, they have their pensions, then what would

:04:28.:04:31.

there be to stop the government from doing it to other industries? That

:04:32.:04:36.

is the bit I want to be certain about... When you operate pensions

:04:37.:04:39.

you operate for future pensions and existing pensions. The existing ones

:04:40.:04:44.

are vulnerable. They are the ones that have no ability to change their

:04:45.:04:47.

circumstances because they are fixed, the income is fixed, so if it

:04:48.:04:51.

falls to magically, something happens to it, their lifelines

:04:52.:05:00.

cannot be replaced. I came here this morning to hear that this is a

:05:01.:05:03.

proposal. I haven't seen the proposition. Would you say that

:05:04.:05:09.

would be dangerous? I would be concerned until I am satisfied that

:05:10.:05:14.

what they are proposing to do is singular and isn't extendable

:05:15.:05:17.

across-the-board, the more people who line-up to do it. In other

:05:18.:05:21.

words, if this is a short-term measure to get stability in that

:05:22.:05:23.

particular industry then it may be worth looking at. What can it be

:05:24.:05:29.

that is short-term and singular that then could not be cited as an

:05:30.:05:34.

example that other industries could do? I can see the dilemma for the

:05:35.:05:39.

government in terms of wanting to find a buyer. With changing -- would

:05:40.:05:49.

it completely change things? I don't know. People are in bits saying this

:05:50.:05:53.

cannot happen until this happens. You have to find out the real bottom

:05:54.:05:57.

line. Is this a reality, or is it possible to do it without changing

:05:58.:06:00.

anything? I don't know because I'm not close enough to it. The pensions

:06:01.:06:08.

system, the deficits and the issues, it is all a complex thing so we have

:06:09.:06:13.

to tread carefully. Short-term measures can often have long-term

:06:14.:06:16.

consequences. These things, invariably, have to be sorted out. I

:06:17.:06:22.

recognise the need for speed. Do you think the government is desperate

:06:23.:06:27.

about it? I think so, because they want to protect the industry, there

:06:28.:06:30.

are lots of jobs to think about, and livelihoods at stake. It is about

:06:31.:06:34.

getting the balance right. I am open to persuasion on this one. But I

:06:35.:06:38.

would like to know what kind of protections are in place, like

:06:39.:06:42.

Steve. We will bring you the latest on what Sajid Javid has said when we

:06:43.:06:44.

get it. The question for today is how

:06:45.:06:45.

did our guest Iain Duncan Smith Was it a) invented by

:06:46.:06:49.

Clive Woodward during his school b) given to him by fellow students

:06:50.:06:56.

at Merchant Navy college in Wales, c) dreamt up by his

:06:57.:07:00.

old army colleagues, or d) thought up by Conservative

:07:01.:07:02.

press officer Mike Penning to help At the end of the show IDS will give

:07:03.:07:05.

us the correct answer. Will he?

:07:06.:07:20.

I hope so. I thought it was something else. This is the worst

:07:21.:07:25.

quiz I've ever seen, those are his initials. I thought it was the sun

:07:26.:07:29.

newspaper. Immigration, let's talk about immigration.

:07:30.:07:33.

Immigration moves front and centre of the EU

:07:34.:07:34.

referendum campaign today, with the Office of National

:07:35.:07:36.

Statistics releasing the last tranche of migration data

:07:37.:07:38.

And the figures show that, in 2015, net inward migration reached

:07:39.:07:42.

Immigration moves front and centre of the EU

:07:43.:07:48.

referendum campaign today, with the Office of National

:07:49.:07:50.

Statistics releasing the last tranche of migration data

:07:51.:07:52.

The numbers show a marked increase in the number of migrants coming

:07:53.:08:01.

With net migration at 333,000 in the year to December 20 15. That is up

:08:02.:08:12.

by 20,000 from the previous year. And of particular note will be

:08:13.:08:14.

the number of migrants from the EU. Net numbers now stand at 184,000, up

:08:15.:08:27.

by 10,000 from the previous year. The figures also show a record

:08:28.:08:31.

number of people emigrating for work, a record 8000, with 58% having

:08:32.:08:41.

a definite job to go to. The ONS has provided more details on the number

:08:42.:08:45.

of National Insurance numbers issued to EU nationals. 630,000 in the year

:08:46.:08:53.

to March. And the ONS also released new projections of England's

:08:54.:08:56.

population which shows the country set for a surge of more than 4

:08:57.:08:58.

million by 2024. Immigration is set to account

:08:59.:09:00.

for almost half that growth, which will see London

:09:01.:09:03.

pass the 10 million mark for the first time

:09:04.:09:14.

between 2017 and 2018. The projections, which do not

:09:15.:09:16.

include Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland,

:09:17.:09:18.

suggest some inner cities However some areas in northern

:09:19.:09:19.

England are expected to see their populations fall,

:09:20.:09:23.

with the largest expected to be in Barrow-in-Furness in Cumbria,

:09:24.:09:26.

which could drop by 4.3%. This morning, Immigration Minister

:09:27.:09:28.

James Brokenshire had this to say: I'm not going to pretend that these

:09:29.:09:30.

figures today aren't disappointing. It underlines the challenge

:09:31.:09:33.

that we continue to face, but we remain committed to reducing

:09:34.:09:35.

net migration to the long-term What isn't the answer,

:09:36.:09:38.

as some may suggest today, That would wreck the economy,

:09:39.:09:41.

threaten jobs, virtually be equivalent to throwing the baby out

:09:42.:09:47.

with the bath water. We need to continue the reforms

:09:48.:09:50.

to reduce net migration from outside of Europe, which still maintains

:09:51.:09:54.

the majority, but also to follow through on the Prime Minister's

:09:55.:09:57.

renegotiation to deal with those factors that act

:09:58.:09:59.

as a draw to the UK, such as benefits, and seeing

:10:00.:10:02.

that work always pays. We're joined now by former

:10:03.:10:06.

Labour Home Secretary Jacqui Smith. Welcome to the programme. For how

:10:07.:10:19.

long can we continue to bring in a net rise of 330,000 migrants? It

:10:20.:10:28.

depends on the extent to which we believe those people are

:10:29.:10:32.

contributing to our net economy. I think they almost certainly are at

:10:33.:10:37.

the moment. But quite often it is those macroeconomic figures which

:10:38.:10:41.

are important, but how they feel about their work, how they feel

:10:42.:10:46.

about the welfare system... Sure, but are you saying there is no

:10:47.:10:50.

problem as long as they are contributing? I'm not saying there

:10:51.:10:58.

is no problem. For how long can we do it? I understand people are

:10:59.:11:03.

concerned about the levels. My opinion on the debate is that I

:11:04.:11:07.

don't believe that promising a person A. Respect is that leaving

:11:08.:11:15.

the EU will give us a chance to control migration in a way we

:11:16.:11:17.

haven't been able to before is the answer. -- a person thinking about

:11:18.:11:30.

leaving the EU. What is important is that we are able to ensure people

:11:31.:11:37.

have jobs, that they feel confident about public services... It is also

:11:38.:11:40.

quite important for our viewers that you answer the question. Is it too

:11:41.:11:45.

big, or is it not too big that we have a net migration of almost

:11:46.:11:50.

300,000 per year? As long as we can provide the public services for

:11:51.:11:55.

people. Quite often migrants are contributing to those services. If

:11:56.:11:58.

we can ensure people have decent work, if we can have a welfare

:11:59.:12:02.

system that is fair to everybody, into which people contribute, that,

:12:03.:12:07.

rather more than a crude number, or a crude cap which this government

:12:08.:12:12.

has consistently failed to meet, other more important issues. So it

:12:13.:12:18.

is not an issue? What we have seen in the failure to meet the cat... I

:12:19.:12:23.

am asking for your view, we will get the government in a moment. There

:12:24.:12:28.

are people in this country who feel that... Who feel concerned about

:12:29.:12:32.

their work, who feel concerned about whether or not there are too many

:12:33.:12:36.

people here. What I am clear about is if we are to respond to these

:12:37.:12:43.

concerns, we are much better doing it alongside our European partners

:12:44.:12:46.

in a way that will enable us to have sensible controls in place. Also,

:12:47.:12:51.

immigration is an issue brought about by massive international

:12:52.:12:55.

changes, economic and geopolitical forces. We are much more likely to

:12:56.:12:59.

be able to respond to those if we are in a strong relationship with

:13:00.:13:03.

our European Union colleagues. If we left the European Union, this idea

:13:04.:13:07.

that we would be able to propose controls over immigration, is a

:13:08.:13:14.

false thing. I didn't ask you about Europe, but you brought it up. Being

:13:15.:13:19.

outside the European Union, it doesn't necessarily give us better

:13:20.:13:23.

control of the numbers coming here. I don't see how that could possibly

:13:24.:13:28.

be the case. If you have a border with 500 million people open, in

:13:29.:13:34.

other words people coming in self select, you cannot stop people. Even

:13:35.:13:37.

if they have a criminal record you cannot say no unless they pose an

:13:38.:13:43.

immediate threat. So people come here, what ever four, jobs,

:13:44.:13:46.

whatever, they come here self select. The Bank of England made it

:13:47.:13:52.

clear that the migration from the European Union is by and large

:13:53.:13:57.

looking for low skill low wage jobs. That puts pressure on people in the

:13:58.:14:03.

UK looking for those jobs already. I think there is an extra 1.4 million

:14:04.:14:08.

people who have come in on short term, up to 52 weeks, and they put a

:14:09.:14:13.

huge downward pressure on salaries and wages. The economy is growing,

:14:14.:14:17.

British unemployment is very low by international standards now. The

:14:18.:14:22.

economy, relatively successful convert to the rest of Europe, would

:14:23.:14:29.

seem to need this extra labour to continue to succeed. I don't agree

:14:30.:14:32.

with that. There is always a requirement for certain skills. If

:14:33.:14:37.

you have a controlled set of borders than what you do is look for the

:14:38.:14:42.

skills that are necessary. The biggest problem the UK economy faces

:14:43.:14:47.

a certain skills like engineering, software engineering, all of those

:14:48.:14:50.

areas, you would like to be able to say people who do that can come

:14:51.:14:55.

because it would improve the productivity of the economy. What we

:14:56.:14:59.

don't need is large numbers of self select people, competing for low

:15:00.:15:03.

income jobs, because there are still plenty of people in Britain capable

:15:04.:15:06.

of doing those jobs and they simply get priced out of the market. That

:15:07.:15:08.

is a fact of life. We're all worried about people whose

:15:09.:15:16.

pay and jobs are being undermined. You will Work and Pensions Secretary

:15:17.:15:20.

and, frankly, if you'd been that worried, you could've improved

:15:21.:15:22.

enforcement of minimum wage legislation. That is a total red

:15:23.:15:29.

herring. There is no way that workers in this country are going to

:15:30.:15:34.

be better off from leaving the EU, with the risk that that poses to

:15:35.:15:37.

their jobs, to the prices of the goods that they buy. And

:15:38.:15:41.

incidentally, if we're talking about whether or not our borders are

:15:42.:15:45.

secure, how can it be a better way to control immigration to

:15:46.:15:49.

effectively, as we would have to if we left the EU, repatriate our

:15:50.:15:53.

border to the UK, rather than being able to carry out the border checks

:15:54.:15:56.

that we are able to carry out in France? Let me come back to this

:15:57.:16:04.

issue of the minimum wage. What do you say to Jacqui Smith's argument

:16:05.:16:07.

that if the minimum wage was properly implemented and enforced,

:16:08.:16:10.

that would reduce the numbers coming? It simply wouldn't reduce

:16:11.:16:14.

the numbers by any noticeable degree. There has been a huge

:16:15.:16:18.

increase enforcement in the last six years, and about the Coalition

:16:19.:16:21.

Government and the current government, and you can go on doing

:16:22.:16:25.

that and of course you should but this is to miss the whole point. You

:16:26.:16:29.

have an open border with the European Union and the vast majority

:16:30.:16:33.

of people coming in from the EU are not coming in to do illegal levels

:16:34.:16:41.

of work. They're coming in mostly to do legal jobs. I am in east London

:16:42.:16:46.

MP. When Neil Nick Park was being built and I travelled around, I used

:16:47.:16:50.

to meet in the job centre is plenty of people who were plumbers and

:16:51.:16:54.

electricians and they couldn't get work on the Olympic Park because

:16:55.:16:58.

they were undercut by people coming in, hot bedding in bedsits, staying

:16:59.:17:03.

for about seven or eight or nine months. They were undercut because

:17:04.:17:06.

they didn't have those family cost that they had and they could take

:17:07.:17:09.

lower salaries and then they would go back to where they came from and

:17:10.:17:12.

come back a few months later. That is the problem. In that case, why is

:17:13.:17:17.

it that there are senior people in the Leave campaign making proposals

:17:18.:17:20.

such as, we should maintain free movement of people in western

:17:21.:17:24.

Europe? How would it be possible to in the Schengen system? There are

:17:25.:17:29.

people making promises... I have no idea who you are talking about.

:17:30.:17:34.

Senior people in the Leave campaign have suggested that you might want

:17:35.:17:38.

to have free movement within Western Europe. Who suggested that? I don't

:17:39.:17:44.

know precisely. That is not the position of the Leave campaign at

:17:45.:17:48.

all. There have also been people who have suggested that there might be

:17:49.:17:51.

the possibility of opening up more widely to people coming from

:17:52.:17:54.

Commonwealth countries. All of those things have been positive... Hang

:17:55.:18:00.

on. The debate is, do you control the level of migration and the

:18:01.:18:04.

quality of that migration? Here, I'm saying to you, if there are software

:18:05.:18:08.

engineers in India who want to come to jobs that need software

:18:09.:18:11.

engineers, then the Government looks at the balance of that and says,

:18:12.:18:16.

"We'll take them". That is or it possible with the integration system

:18:17.:18:20.

at the moment. The second highest net migration figure since records

:18:21.:18:24.

began at the moment and the reality is, it is self selective. We have a

:18:25.:18:28.

vast number of people coming in from the EU, mostly doing low-paid jobs,

:18:29.:18:32.

which means you have to tighten right up on the skilled areas of

:18:33.:18:35.

work which you may want coming from young software engineers who would

:18:36.:18:40.

actually add productivity. So it is the case that you would want to

:18:41.:18:44.

increase immigration from outside the EU? I want to have controlled

:18:45.:18:48.

immigration. An elected government that has a proposal from migration

:18:49.:18:52.

system to limit to tens of thousands has to control its borders. If they

:18:53.:18:56.

do that and are elected on that, the public that the next general

:18:57.:18:59.

election will say, "You did or didn't achieve that, I want you out

:19:00.:19:06.

or I want you to stay". You need to answer a few questions about how you

:19:07.:19:08.

would implement your immigration policy. Questions like... I'm asking

:19:09.:19:15.

the questions. I'd like to ask you a question. You say we all want

:19:16.:19:22.

controlled immigration, so if we stay in the EU, how would you

:19:23.:19:26.

control it? Firstly, I actually think some of the reforms that David

:19:27.:19:30.

Cameron has the go she hated around the welfare system are right. I

:19:31.:19:33.

think it's right if people come to this country that they should make a

:19:34.:19:37.

contribution before they receive welfare benefits. All the research

:19:38.:19:42.

suggests that will make almost no difference at all, in particular

:19:43.:19:46.

when you add in the rise in the minimum wage That's part of the

:19:47.:19:53.

reason why I think they're significant macroeconomic benefits

:19:54.:19:56.

from migration into this country but what there also are our considerable

:19:57.:20:00.

concerns amongst individuals about their pay levels. You said, we all

:20:01.:20:06.

want to control immigration. I assume you include yourself so I'm

:20:07.:20:11.

asking you, if we remain in the EU, how would you control immigration

:20:12.:20:15.

from the EU? I think our immigration is better controlled by having

:20:16.:20:20.

border controls in France, which, of course, was negotiated by David

:20:21.:20:24.

Blunkett, because of our close relationship with our European

:20:25.:20:27.

colleagues. It was everything to do with the EU. It's a bilateral

:20:28.:20:34.

arrangement. The Home Office minister in France said, "We would

:20:35.:20:39.

keep that even if Britain left, because it suits our purposes".

:20:40.:20:43.

Having worked closely on the Justice and home affairs council, and is

:20:44.:20:46.

David Blunkett has said, I really do not believe we would have got that

:20:47.:20:50.

agreement had we not be working alongside our European colleagues.

:20:51.:20:54.

You accepted a bilateral treaty, not an EU treaty? I believe it has come

:20:55.:20:59.

about because... Legally, it is not an EU treaty, correct? It is

:21:00.:21:08.

bilateral. Iain Duncan Smith... No, no, I'm going to ask Iain Duncan

:21:09.:21:13.

Smith question now. You've been part of the government, until recently,

:21:14.:21:16.

that for six years has promised to get net migration below 100,000 and,

:21:17.:21:20.

this, you've spectacularly fails to do that and part of the blame you

:21:21.:21:24.

give is because you can't control numbers coming from the EU. But you

:21:25.:21:29.

can control numbers coming from outside the EU and even when you

:21:30.:21:33.

take none you, net migration in the last year was almost 150,000. So

:21:34.:21:38.

even if you stopped everybody coming from the EU, you would still be 50%

:21:39.:21:45.

above your target. Why? Because we need to take more action to reduce

:21:46.:21:49.

net migration. If you have a plan to cut migration by tens of thousands,

:21:50.:21:55.

we are missing that. If you look at Australia and other countries, they

:21:56.:21:58.

have points systems, where they say certain skills come in and the rest

:21:59.:22:03.

don't. That is what you have to do. You said that if we took in fewer

:22:04.:22:09.

from the EU, you would have control. We are probably taking more with the

:22:10.:22:13.

right skills from outside the EU. I said your overall migration policy

:22:14.:22:17.

is then set for what the skills that you need in the UK to improve that

:22:18.:22:21.

but the net number that come in versus those who believe would

:22:22.:22:26.

actually fall. That is the purpose. You set yourself a target and you

:22:27.:22:33.

achieve that target. Would it be 100,000? The policy that we set

:22:34.:22:37.

ourselves, I am a believer in. If you have a manifesto pledge, you

:22:38.:22:41.

stick to it. You never this economy, at its current growth rate and job

:22:42.:22:45.

generation, which is more than the rest of the eurozone put together,

:22:46.:22:49.

could not survive if we only had immigration at 100,000. Our policy

:22:50.:22:55.

at the last election is to have... I know that your policy, it doesn't

:22:56.:22:59.

make it right. The British people voted for that. Shouldn't you just

:23:00.:23:06.

drop the promise? I believe if you got a promise, you stick to it. We

:23:07.:23:12.

have to leave it there. Sorry. We've had an affair out in on that. Jacqui

:23:13.:23:16.

Smith, thank you for being with us. But we're not leaving the debate.

:23:17.:23:26.

Tonight sees the first referendum TV debate -

:23:27.:23:28.

it's in Glasgow and is being hosted by Victoria Derbyshire

:23:29.:23:30.

in front of a live audience of 18 to 29 year-olds.

:23:31.:23:33.

Our reporter Christian Fraser is at the venue in Glasgow.

:23:34.:23:35.

That's right. We're on the banks of the Clyde. The crew are stored

:23:36.:23:40.

tightening up all the bolts and making the final preparations and

:23:41.:23:43.

another spotlight, former First Minister Alex Salmond, who is very

:23:44.:23:48.

much in the Remain camp. Alongside him, Alan Johnson's labour, Liam

:23:49.:23:51.

Fox, the former Defence Secretary, from Conservatives. He is backing

:23:52.:23:56.

the Leave campaign and next to him will be Diane Jones, one of the four

:23:57.:24:00.

Ukip MEPs but it is the audience that is the most fascinating. We

:24:01.:24:04.

don't often hear the views and thoughts of a young audience and you

:24:05.:24:07.

will see the title behind the stage, "How should I go?" That is because

:24:08.:24:12.

they're still, unbelievably, a lot of undecided voters in the 18

:24:13.:24:16.

29-year-old age-group and it is crucial, particularly to the Remain

:24:17.:24:20.

camp, that they get that vote out because polls tell us about 50% of

:24:21.:24:23.

young people will vote but more people vote the older they get, so

:24:24.:24:26.

these young people could be crucial to the Remain camp. Interesting

:24:27.:24:31.

views, we are likely to get. I don't think they will be focusing, as you

:24:32.:24:36.

are, on migration or procurement law in Europe. They want to know about

:24:37.:24:40.

jobs, universities, how Brexit might affect their opportunities within

:24:41.:24:43.

Europe, where they may go to find work later in their lives. Since

:24:44.:24:47.

we're in Scotland, let's broadly talk about the polls here. They seem

:24:48.:24:51.

to be leaving quite firmly towards remain. Nobody here is going to take

:24:52.:24:55.

anything for granted because we've had the independence vote, a general

:24:56.:25:00.

election, the important elections at the beginning of May, so nobody can

:25:01.:25:03.

really guess what turnout might be. Will it be as high as we expect it

:25:04.:25:08.

to be or are people just tired of going to the ballot box?

:25:09.:25:13.

Thanks for that. We look forward to it.

:25:14.:25:14.

Well, one of the key issues in the referendum debate

:25:15.:25:17.

Those on the Leave side suggest we can easily negotiate a free trade

:25:18.:25:21.

agreement with the EU and be free to negotiate with other

:25:22.:25:24.

emerging economies in the Far East and Latin America.

:25:25.:25:26.

Those arguing to remain, however, suggest that being in the EU gives

:25:27.:25:29.

us preferential access to a market of 500 million people.

:25:30.:25:31.

One of those is Miriam Gonzalez Durantez -

:25:32.:25:35.

She is, of course, the wife of former

:25:36.:25:39.

But she is also a lawyer who specialises in free

:25:40.:25:43.

Welcome to the programme. Iain Duncan Smith, first of all, in terms

:25:44.:25:54.

of trade with countries like the US and China, what would be so

:25:55.:25:58.

dramatically different if we left the EU? First of all, you would

:25:59.:26:04.

carry on trading with them. We have a trade balance which is pretty much

:26:05.:26:11.

in balance with the United States. We want to get on and try and make

:26:12.:26:15.

trade deals with countries which have free trade deals, like

:26:16.:26:17.

Australia made with the United States, which took about two years

:26:18.:26:21.

to sort out, and the same goes with countries we've had historic ties

:26:22.:26:25.

with like India and Japan, so what we would want to do is get on and

:26:26.:26:29.

start that process. We do trade with countries like the US and China. So

:26:30.:26:33.

the EU doesn't stop the UK doing that. Nobody ever said it stops it.

:26:34.:26:39.

Just to clarify. The point is we want to make that trade even easier

:26:40.:26:43.

and it is taking forever for the EU to get what I think is a bad trade

:26:44.:26:50.

deal in TTIP with the United States, which I am not in favour of. How

:26:51.:26:54.

much quicker do think it would be and how much would it increase by?

:26:55.:27:00.

I'm not sure how much it would increase by but I think it would

:27:01.:27:03.

increase trade to top the reality is that you will increase your trade if

:27:04.:27:07.

those barriers, whatever barriers they are, come down. How high are

:27:08.:27:13.

they at the moment? They average about 1.5 percentage top I think one

:27:14.:27:20.

presented the average. In some areas it is five percentage top the

:27:21.:27:23.

question you are asking is almost an irrelevance. It is not a relevant.

:27:24.:27:28.

It is not relevant to find out how much more trade we would have if we

:27:29.:27:32.

left the EU. It is a very relevant question. -- it is not irrelevant.

:27:33.:27:38.

Some people have said would be a golden age of trade and I want to

:27:39.:27:42.

know how much more. It depends on how you get your free trade deal but

:27:43.:27:46.

the fact of life in all free trade deals that exist between countries

:27:47.:27:49.

show significant increases in their trade. Australia was one. There is

:27:50.:27:56.

no overarching court. They have no barriers on either side. What would

:27:57.:28:01.

be the problem? We would be free to make trade agreements, individual

:28:02.:28:04.

trade agreements, and it actually would improve with these other

:28:05.:28:06.

countries, some of whom we can't trade with the tall at the moment

:28:07.:28:11.

individually. You are making, if I may, both of you are making a series

:28:12.:28:14.

of assumptions that are little bit wishful thinking. The UK visitor can

:28:15.:28:20.

continue trading but it will continue trading under very

:28:21.:28:23.

different terms. The EU and the UK within the EU is currently protected

:28:24.:28:31.

by a wide network of agreements that have been concluded or are in

:28:32.:28:34.

negotiations and they offer preferential treatment to British

:28:35.:28:37.

companies, wherever they are going. That would go. It can be

:28:38.:28:44.

renegotiated but that would go. So that's thinking of, we are going to

:28:45.:28:48.

be able to trade more, if you want better terms than we have right now,

:28:49.:28:55.

it it is an incredibly complex situation. Renegotiation... There is

:28:56.:29:02.

one of the agreements here so you can see what it is. This is one of

:29:03.:29:07.

the simple agreements. There are many more which are much more

:29:08.:29:12.

complicated. You would need to renegotiate 30 to 50 of these. Let

:29:13.:29:17.

me say, by the way, that I have been a trade negotiator in my past life

:29:18.:29:23.

and in bilateral negotiations. They are not really British trade because

:29:24.:29:28.

shooters here in the government. How long does it take to negotiate

:29:29.:29:33.

something like that? Things are getting more and more complicated

:29:34.:29:40.

right now, partly because of fears that the UK exports mostly services

:29:41.:29:43.

and for services, you need to negotiate later for financial

:29:44.:29:49.

services. Five years, beginning to end, is a reasonable time. Five

:29:50.:29:54.

years for every single trade agreement? Would you be perpetual

:29:55.:29:58.

that? I have been an industry and I have negotiated contract and trade

:29:59.:30:02.

deals with countries abroad so I have to tell you something very

:30:03.:30:08.

simple. The reason why you have this stack of papers is because in the

:30:09.:30:12.

EU, all these different nations require, in the course of those

:30:13.:30:16.

negotiations, incredible limitations on what happens. For example, the

:30:17.:30:21.

TTIP negotiation, one of the areas they Rowling about, is whether

:30:22.:30:24.

America can call their feta cheese feta cheese or whether the rights

:30:25.:30:28.

have the -- whether the Greeks have the right to call it feta cheese.

:30:29.:30:32.

You have a simpler process if it is dealing with one country. The second

:30:33.:30:36.

thing is, any external trade deals that the EU has made, legally, it is

:30:37.:30:40.

up to the country they made the deal with to decide whether it supplies

:30:41.:30:46.

that trade deal to the UK or not. If that country says, "I am content

:30:47.:30:50.

that we will continue to trade on this terms with the UK," then that

:30:51.:30:53.

trade deal stands. That is legally the case.

:30:54.:30:58.

I have negotiated with you, for example, you are offering me 500

:30:59.:31:05.

million customers, and now I am offering to you 67 million

:31:06.:31:09.

customers. This is in breach of contract. It is up to them... Of

:31:10.:31:14.

course it is up to them... I let you speak earlier... It is up to them to

:31:15.:31:20.

decide if they are going to apply them or not. I wouldn't be

:31:21.:31:24.

surprised. They would be mad not to open it. Isn't it the will of the

:31:25.:31:29.

other countries, and the fact we don't know? Put those two words

:31:30.:31:39.

aside, then you get down to the concrete point, these nations want

:31:40.:31:44.

to deal with us as we want to deal with them. But they will want a

:31:45.:31:48.

preferential deal... The first and in point is you would already have a

:31:49.:31:52.

trade deal. When you speak to these countries you say you are content,

:31:53.:31:56.

if that is what we want to do as a government, to stay with the deal as

:31:57.:32:01.

we have it now. Are you content? If they say yes, finds asked to carry,

:32:02.:32:06.

then we do. -- the first concrete point is. We don't have a trade deal

:32:07.:32:12.

with the US after 30 years. It doesn't have a decent trade deal

:32:13.:32:16.

with India, one of our biggest and oldest friends. -- it doesn't have a

:32:17.:32:21.

trade deal with the US after 30 years. We would have to do a deal

:32:22.:32:24.

with them individually. It is about control. Leave are saying the UK

:32:25.:32:30.

would control those the gauche orations. They would choose who they

:32:31.:32:34.

would like to negotiate with and their terms would also be done on a

:32:35.:32:39.

preferential basis. That would be the advantage of the out of the year

:32:40.:32:43.

as a block. I know that this seems to be the whole Brexit debate,

:32:44.:32:48.

control of everything. It is, isn't it? It is difficult to control it

:32:49.:32:54.

completely. It doesn't work like that. This is about a trade between

:32:55.:33:03.

your control for every bit, and what you get with 500 million customers

:33:04.:33:07.

that you have when you negotiate. It is out of the question that the UK

:33:08.:33:11.

would be able to get the same terms. If it is offering 67 million

:33:12.:33:15.

customers, if it is offering 5 million customers. Would it be

:33:16.:33:23.

impossible? Very difficult. I won't ask you to do the negotiations. We

:33:24.:33:26.

have that clear. LAUGHTER

:33:27.:33:31.

When I was in business, you argue for those things. The point is, this

:33:32.:33:37.

idea that all of this stuff means you cannot do it... Sleep, years ago

:33:38.:33:43.

we would not have wanted to do it, it is just too difficult. --

:33:44.:33:48.

honestly, years ago. We have got to get our own agreements for Britain,

:33:49.:33:57.

and that must be better. Bilateral agreements are my bread-and-butter.

:33:58.:34:01.

There are no negotiations in the government who have free trade

:34:02.:34:08.

deals. Important negotiate is... With respect, they are bad at it. 30

:34:09.:34:13.

years are discussing a trade deal with the US and they still don't

:34:14.:34:19.

have it... How about Joe Hart? I don't think that is pretty good. --

:34:20.:34:23.

Doha. You could join other countries,

:34:24.:34:30.

Iceland, Norway, literature and Steyn, you would have access to

:34:31.:34:38.

their trade deals, as well -- Liechtenstein. It could be lots of

:34:39.:34:46.

different other models like that one. I don't accept the whole

:34:47.:34:50.

internal market, or not, because that includes freedom of movement?

:34:51.:34:54.

And the different thing is an agreement with third parties. That

:34:55.:34:59.

issue is still on the table. We have to leave it. Thank you. If you do

:35:00.:35:02.

ever end up working for him, do tell us.

:35:03.:35:07.

Lots of trees died in that, I hope it was worth it. We have offered

:35:08.:35:18.

politicians from all parties to take the soapboxes.

:35:19.:35:22.

So to start off the series, here's Conservative MP -

:35:23.:35:24.

and former policing minister - Nick Herbert on why you should

:35:25.:35:27.

The Conservatives took Britain into the single market

:35:28.:35:44.

That's given us the best of both worlds, and being outside Europe's

:35:45.:35:53.

passport-free area means we control our borders.

:35:54.:35:56.

Thanks to the Prime Minister's new deal, Britain is exempt

:35:57.:35:58.

from ever-closer union, so we'll never be part

:35:59.:36:00.

I'm proud of our record of rebuilding our economy,

:36:01.:36:03.

creating 2.4 million jobs and restoring stability.

:36:04.:36:13.

But we mustn't put our economic security at risk

:36:14.:36:15.

by turning our backs on our largest trading partner.

:36:16.:36:17.

A vote to leave is a vote for risk and uncertainty,

:36:18.:36:20.

affecting jobs, prices and mortgage payments for families.

:36:21.:36:22.

Independent experts warn that Britain could take a serious

:36:23.:36:24.

economic hit by leaving, meaning less funding for public

:36:25.:36:26.

The cost would be equivalent to ?4,300 for every

:36:27.:36:32.

Families can't afford to pay this price.

:36:33.:36:35.

That's why Britain is stronger, safer and better off in the EU.

:36:36.:36:56.

So that was Nick Herbert making the Conservative 'remain' case.

:36:57.:36:59.

But as you might have noticed, not everyone in the Conservative

:37:00.:37:01.

party agrees - Nusrat Ghani MP explains why she'll be voting

:37:02.:37:04.

On June 23rd, Britain has a chance to vote for a bold, positive future,

:37:05.:37:26.

as an independent country in control of its own destiny.

:37:27.:37:32.

I am proud that our nation stands tall in the world.

:37:33.:37:35.

We have the world's fifth biggest economy and the fourth

:37:36.:37:38.

We have a chance to liberate our economy from a declining corner

:37:39.:37:43.

of the world and spread our wings to the whole globe.

:37:44.:37:48.

Today, business regulation is dictated by the EU's unelected

:37:49.:37:50.

Their red tape costs our economy billions every year and it's small

:37:51.:37:57.

If we take back control of our democracy, we can set

:37:58.:38:03.

sensible rules to suit Britain, not Brussels.

:38:04.:38:07.

We can then do our own trade deals, worldwide, to bring

:38:08.:38:10.

We can take back control of our borders and decide

:38:11.:38:14.

on the skills and expertise needed to help our country flourish.

:38:15.:38:20.

We get a lousy deal for our membership fee of ?350 million

:38:21.:38:23.

Let's get it back and spend it on our priorities.

:38:24.:38:29.

Let's get back control of our country.

:38:30.:38:32.

Nusrat Ghani making the Conservative case for Leave.

:38:33.:38:47.

Both those films are available on our twitter feed.

:38:48.:38:51.

And we've done films with all the main parties

:38:52.:38:54.

which we will be playing in the run-up to the referendum.

:38:55.:38:57.

We asked Nick Herbert if he would come in and debate his

:38:58.:39:00.

arguments with Iain Duncan Smith, but Mr Herbert wants to avoid

:39:01.:39:02.

But we do have former Conservative MP Laura Sandys who is campaigning

:39:03.:39:09.

I am glad you are not frightened to come on. Welcomer long. David

:39:10.:39:22.

Cameron's former blue skies thinker worked with him at number ten claims

:39:23.:39:26.

the PM is a closet Brexiteer. He would have liked to have left. Do

:39:27.:39:34.

you believe him? I don't. I think the longer the Prime Minister has

:39:35.:39:39.

been in his post he has actually seen really the true opportunities

:39:40.:39:42.

Europe offers us from a power point of view. If you talk to ministers

:39:43.:39:46.

they see the letter which we have, and don't believe we are a victim of

:39:47.:39:52.

Europe, and that we are actually a true and leading partner. If you

:39:53.:40:02.

read the whole quote from Steve Hilton, actually, as Prime Minister,

:40:03.:40:06.

David Cameron has changed his view, that you can be an ideological

:40:07.:40:10.

backbencher, like yourself, then it is easy to be a League campaign. But

:40:11.:40:14.

when you are in power you are looking at the interests of the

:40:15.:40:24.

whole country. -- Leave. I decided a while ago. As power kept slipping I

:40:25.:40:32.

changed my mind. I said we would end up with a final decision which is,

:40:33.:40:35.

can you stay or can you leave because you will see more powers go.

:40:36.:40:40.

More and more the treaties convinced me this was the case. Coming back to

:40:41.:40:44.

the PM, we don't have an idea, I don't have a window into his soul.

:40:45.:40:48.

Buddy you see what still Hilton is saying, can you believe that

:40:49.:40:52.

becoming Prime Minister changes your perspective? -- but can you see.

:40:53.:40:58.

Being in government changed my perspective. If I was edging towards

:40:59.:41:02.

Lees, being in government, dealing with the people in Brussels, it

:41:03.:41:06.

would make me want to leave as fast as possible. -- Leave. The amount of

:41:07.:41:13.

times we were in fact it because we disagreed over social policy, and

:41:14.:41:15.

they are trying to take control of social policy, I thought if anything

:41:16.:41:20.

tells you you want to get out it would make me want to go the other

:41:21.:41:24.

way dealing with them. The majority of Cabinet ministers want to stay

:41:25.:41:29.

in. They had a different experience. You say that but a lot of Cabinet

:41:30.:41:33.

ministers have tempered their opinions because of collective

:41:34.:41:35.

responsibility, even though they were allowed to choose as they

:41:36.:41:39.

wanted. We are moving into the last stage of this. We need to look at

:41:40.:41:44.

the vision of the country. Churchill had his concentric circles where the

:41:45.:41:49.

UK was positioned on the continent of Europe with an extraordinary

:41:50.:41:52.

relationship with the US, and also with our links to the Commonwealth.

:41:53.:41:58.

When the last conversation about trade happened, we offered the

:41:59.:42:01.

Commonwealth preferential treatment into the EU market and that's why

:42:02.:42:06.

the Commonwealth want us to stay in because we are their platform. We

:42:07.:42:11.

have got this extraordinary position. To lose one of the legs of

:42:12.:42:15.

the three legged stool seems crazy at this particular moment. You said

:42:16.:42:19.

we are coming to the closing weeks of this debate. The vitriol has been

:42:20.:42:24.

quite amazing in terms of levels of abuse that have been chucked by both

:42:25.:42:29.

sides at both sides. You called the Chancellor Pinocchio. Boris Johnson

:42:30.:42:35.

called... Have you forgotten? The PM said Penny Morden was absolutely

:42:36.:42:38.

wrong about Turkey. Are you surprised at the level of vitriol?

:42:39.:42:46.

It is politics. Within one party? You cannot have a debate without

:42:47.:42:51.

passions rising. It is the most important vote people will make as

:42:52.:42:56.

to the destiny of your country. You will have bits and pieces. The key

:42:57.:42:59.

thing is getting down to the reality and the facts about what are you

:43:00.:43:05.

voting about. My view is that the Remain site have talked about the

:43:06.:43:08.

economy, marketplace... I don't know of any other place in the world that

:43:09.:43:18.

has a marketplace decided upon by so many bureaucrats. I have a second

:43:19.:43:22.

point. If you talk to people in Europe this is not about the

:43:23.:43:26.

marketplace. This is about their overarching dream to have this

:43:27.:43:30.

federal state called Europe. Can we let Laura respond. I don't

:43:31.:43:36.

understand about this Europe holding us back. Belgium sold more to India

:43:37.:43:40.

than the UK. Germany sells to countries our Foreign Office can

:43:41.:43:44.

hardly even spell. When you start to look at this it is about this

:43:45.:43:47.

country but it is also about the things we need to do within this

:43:48.:43:52.

country. We need up skill, not worry about migrants coming in and taking

:43:53.:43:56.

low skilled jobs, we should be making sure our domestic citizens

:43:57.:43:59.

have much better skills. We should be looking at trade and making sure

:44:00.:44:06.

we are trading around the world. But the EU is not holding us back. What

:44:07.:44:09.

it is is it is one of the platforms of which I am not embarrassed to be

:44:10.:44:17.

a member of. Let me ask Iain Duncan Smith about the fact there are

:44:18.:44:22.

reports of 50 different people willing to sign up to a

:44:23.:44:25.

no-confidence vote in David Cameron. Are you one of them, do you know

:44:26.:44:30.

about it? This is not the Prime Minister, this is about whether we

:44:31.:44:34.

stay in the EU or not. We have another for Magri years to govern.

:44:35.:44:40.

You have a vote, if the vote to leave, which I hope it will be, then

:44:41.:44:43.

the government has to operate on the basis that we have to now leave. --

:44:44.:44:49.

if the vote is to leave. So you know nothing about this. I don't. What

:44:50.:44:55.

would you say to your colleagues on the list? Not bothered. The

:44:56.:44:59.

government will have to operate on the basis of the result. If the

:45:00.:45:03.

British people say leave them the PM has to get on and get us out. But

:45:04.:45:09.

this is the risk of having a divided party. It is a risk, isn't it? If

:45:10.:45:11.

there are names ready to sign up. 70% of Conservative MPs are not that

:45:12.:45:21.

interested in the E word. What they're looking for on the 24th is a

:45:22.:45:26.

strong agenda talking about social inclusion, talking about the

:45:27.:45:30.

domestic issues. We're all forced to have a view about Europe as some

:45:31.:45:34.

sort of polemic state and actually, ultimately, I think that we have a

:45:35.:45:38.

very strong agenda without the E word mentioned whatever, following

:45:39.:45:42.

on from this referendum. We've all got to kiss and make up. You should

:45:43.:45:46.

vote to leave a menu will never have to mention the E word again. -- and

:45:47.:45:54.

then you will never have to. Why does Belgium export more to India? I

:45:55.:46:00.

don't know why it does. Because Antwerp is the diamond capital of

:46:01.:46:04.

the world and 70% Belgium's exports to India are diamonds. It doesn't

:46:05.:46:09.

actually create a lot of jobs manufacturing industry. But the

:46:10.:46:13.

point is that the EU is not holding them back. It is a false figure

:46:14.:46:20.

because it is diamonds. It's like many of the propaganda figures we

:46:21.:46:22.

get from both sides of this debate. A new report conducted

:46:23.:46:24.

by Salford City Council claims that benefits sanctions are plunging

:46:25.:46:27.

the poor and desperate The city's new mayor,

:46:28.:46:29.

Labour's Paul Dennett, says some local people

:46:30.:46:31.

are struggling to afford food, heating and essential costs,

:46:32.:46:34.

and the problem is particularly Mr Dennett joins us

:46:35.:46:36.

now from Salford. Welcome to the programme. What are

:46:37.:46:48.

the main findings? What are your main concerns as a result of this

:46:49.:46:51.

report and what you've found in Salford? Our main findings are that

:46:52.:46:55.

the vulnerable people in the city especially being impacted by

:46:56.:47:00.

conditionality and benefit sanctions, so people with mental

:47:01.:47:04.

health issues, people with learning difficulties, lone parents, young

:47:05.:47:07.

people and disabled people are especially being impacted by benefit

:47:08.:47:11.

sanctions and conditionality regimes from the DWP. And have the reforms

:47:12.:47:16.

that this government introduced, both the Coalition, and is

:47:17.:47:20.

continuing to do so, as that made things worse? In my opinion, it

:47:21.:47:26.

absolutely has made things worse. We've created an industry almost

:47:27.:47:29.

around unemployment, where people are struggling to make ends meet but

:47:30.:47:31.

also struggling with the labour market. The jobs these people are

:47:32.:47:36.

acquiring are part-time, low paid jobs to top they're in and out of

:47:37.:47:40.

work and the DWP aren't really interested in trying to understand

:47:41.:47:43.

what's going on in the labour market in terms of that labour market churn

:47:44.:47:46.

and the consequences of that for people's lies within our city. Ian

:47:47.:47:51.

Duncan Smith, you were responsible for many of these changes. What do

:47:52.:47:55.

you say to Paul Dummett? It is not the picture I see across the country

:47:56.:47:59.

and what you will find is that universal credit is rolled out to be

:48:00.:48:04.

employed. The point about universal credit you don't just go into a

:48:05.:48:09.

low-paid job and then leave the job centre. You now stay with the job

:48:10.:48:12.

adviser who knocks you find better income and gets you want a higher

:48:13.:48:15.

salary, longer hours and a more permanent job. That is what is

:48:16.:48:19.

happening. As regards the disability benefit side of things, the reality

:48:20.:48:23.

is that if you were on disability benefits, you are not sanctioned. In

:48:24.:48:27.

actual fact, you can work but you are not forced to work. That is part

:48:28.:48:31.

of the deal. Those benefits have all risen and we've put extra money

:48:32.:48:36.

down, over ?350 million went out to local councils to help sort their

:48:37.:48:39.

problems out over housing and getting families to move and change.

:48:40.:48:45.

There has been a huge amount of assistance to local authorities to

:48:46.:48:49.

get the focus down to them, to help them get those jobs and get those

:48:50.:48:52.

people back to work and that is what has been going on. What do you say?

:48:53.:48:56.

In my opinion, there hasn't been huge amount of assistance to local

:48:57.:49:00.

authorities. What we're actually seeing is people falling through

:49:01.:49:02.

welfare safety net, so people basically falling out of the benefit

:49:03.:49:06.

system together, relying on friends and family to make ends meet. They

:49:07.:49:12.

are potentially existing in the informal economy. There is a

:49:13.:49:14.

fundamental problem here with the Government's statistics. We don't

:49:15.:49:21.

manufacture the statistics. The ONS but the statistics together and they

:49:22.:49:24.

are done independently. What we've seen is that poverty levels have

:49:25.:49:27.

fallen and we've seen the levels of people's income rise as they get

:49:28.:49:31.

back into work. That is not perfect, there is more to do. But in Salford

:49:32.:49:36.

there has been a huge rise in referrals to the Salford central

:49:37.:49:41.

food bank. 62% made by people who had had their benefits stopped. The

:49:42.:49:45.

whole point about this, and this is what we said at the time, there is a

:49:46.:49:49.

contract and they sign that contract on arrival at the job centre. Most

:49:50.:49:53.

people recognise that if you are in receipt of benefits, you are

:49:54.:49:57.

required and expected, at that time, to be looking for work and you are

:49:58.:50:00.

meant to do everything you can to find work and take those jobs that

:50:01.:50:04.

are available. People are not sanctioned simply because the job

:50:05.:50:07.

centre dislikes them, they are sanctioned only after a series of

:50:08.:50:11.

warnings and checks that say, if you don't change what you are doing and

:50:12.:50:14.

don't get on and do the job you are meant to be doing, which is finding

:50:15.:50:18.

work, then you will be sanctioned. Most of the public accept, in all

:50:19.:50:21.

the polling, that this is a contract. We want you to find work,

:50:22.:50:25.

we will support you with money, but you are supposed to seek work. But

:50:26.:50:29.

according to the DWP, more than half of the claimants sanctioned between

:50:30.:50:33.

April 20 14th and March 2015 had mental health problems, either

:50:34.:50:39.

caused or worsened by sanctions. The department has always said that as

:50:40.:50:42.

soon as anybody is able to demonstrate that they have a

:50:43.:50:45.

sickness or illness or a mental health problem, they are immediately

:50:46.:50:48.

taken across to the employment support allowance and they get an

:50:49.:50:51.

application to get onto that, where they will not be sanctioned and will

:50:52.:50:55.

be in the support group. The vast majority of those do. And not saying

:50:56.:50:58.

the system is perfect and people aren't going to fall through it but

:50:59.:51:01.

the system is meant to pick people up and get them through and local

:51:02.:51:04.

authorities, working closely with the DWP, are actually doing that.

:51:05.:51:08.

The number of sanctions has fallen over the last two years. Are

:51:09.:51:12.

sanctions falling in numbers in your area? According to the Government,

:51:13.:51:17.

the sanctions are falling, so the official statistics suggest that,

:51:18.:51:20.

but the reality is, they are falling out of the system so we are not

:51:21.:51:24.

capturing the data. I don't know what Iain Duncan Smith is talking

:51:25.:51:27.

about because we've got young people with dyslexia unable to complete

:51:28.:51:31.

diaries sanctioned. 31-year-old in the city with severe mental health

:51:32.:51:37.

issues sanctioned. 60-year-old lady on TSA failed her work capability

:51:38.:51:40.

assessment, taken at a benefits and reliant upon our system. This is on

:51:41.:51:45.

top of local governor cuts. 171 million has been taken out of our

:51:46.:51:49.

budget in 2010, 46% of our budget taken away from us. This is what the

:51:50.:51:54.

government would consider as non-statutory so we get no penny

:51:55.:51:57.

whatsoever through the revenue support grant to deliver these

:51:58.:52:01.

services in our city so we have to work with partners in our city to

:52:02.:52:04.

try and tackle what is a really Draconian and punitive system here.

:52:05.:52:09.

The examples Paul Dummett gives, it would seem to me, are quite

:52:10.:52:14.

concerning. Any example of something that is not working is always a

:52:15.:52:17.

concern but the point I'm saying is, you can always, in every system,

:52:18.:52:21.

find injury jewel cases where things are wrong and if those are raised,

:52:22.:52:24.

they have to be dealt with individually. When the government

:52:25.:52:29.

came in, the levels of unemployment was staggeringly high in places like

:52:30.:52:32.

Salford and getting people back to work is the single first thing you

:52:33.:52:36.

have to do to get them to be able to control their lives and get the

:52:37.:52:39.

right level of income. The budget for welfare when we walked in the

:52:40.:52:43.

door had risen by 60% on the period before and unemployment was high and

:52:44.:52:47.

child poverty had risen. These figures have come down. Not

:52:48.:52:51.

everything is absolutely perfect. There will always be individual

:52:52.:52:54.

cases. But the reality is that the system as it is now is more likely

:52:55.:52:57.

to help people get back into work and assist them when they are in

:52:58.:53:01.

work and it was before. And the work capability assessment that he speaks

:53:02.:53:04.

about was introduced by the Labour government at the time because they

:53:05.:53:08.

said this would help. I want to change it and perform it, which is

:53:09.:53:11.

one of the things I wanted to do before I left, but it will be

:53:12.:53:14.

reformed because a doesn't function exactly as it should. Thank you. We

:53:15.:53:21.

have to leave it there. I assume people can read this report online.

:53:22.:53:26.

Yes, absolutely, they can. Thank you for being with us.

:53:27.:53:31.

Now, it seems the end of the world is nigh. Have we got a hole in our

:53:32.:53:35.

roof? It's time to talk

:53:36.:53:39.

terrifying alien invasions Award-winning crime writer

:53:40.:53:41.

Val McDermid has written a Radio 4 adaption of John Wyndham's classic

:53:42.:53:44.

1953 sci-fi novel Dangerous It stars Tamsin Greig, Paul Higgins

:53:45.:53:48.

and a rather special guest. Every day, I check whether there's

:53:49.:53:59.

anything on the radio. This is the Scottish

:54:00.:54:06.

Broadcasting Commission. And now, a message

:54:07.:54:08.

from the First Minister. We are proud today that we have

:54:09.:54:13.

restored radio broadcasting Standing here on the Castle

:54:14.:54:16.

Esplanade, I want to say that your government has not lost

:54:17.:54:22.

sight of the need to fight back against those

:54:23.:54:26.

who would destroy us. That was First Minister Nicola

:54:27.:54:32.

Sturgeon starring as herself, and with us now to tell us

:54:33.:54:47.

about the play is its writer, Val McDermid, live

:54:48.:54:50.

from our Edinburgh studio. Welcome to the programme. Why did

:54:51.:54:58.

you decide to adopt this novel? I've always been a fan of John Wyndham

:54:59.:55:01.

and have enjoyed his works as I was a teenager. It seemed to me that,

:55:02.:55:05.

unlike a lot of sci-fi, it stands up well to the passage of time because

:55:06.:55:08.

what he concentrated on was character and how people behave

:55:09.:55:11.

under pressure and stress and that doesn't change when circumstances

:55:12.:55:16.

change. So you've been able to adapt it with modern day scary stories or

:55:17.:55:20.

scenarios that could come upon us now? Yes. I think when the book was

:55:21.:55:25.

written, there was a limited understanding of climate science and

:55:26.:55:28.

what would happen in circumstances like this but now we have a much

:55:29.:55:31.

greater understanding of what would happen if the icecaps melted, if the

:55:32.:55:36.

sea waters rise, and that allowed me to write, I suppose, a more

:55:37.:55:43.

apocalyptic vision. Yes, I'm sure it is apocalyptic. As we've just played

:55:44.:55:47.

for the audience, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon playing herself. How

:55:48.:55:51.

did that come about? In the initial book, the protagonist escaped to

:55:52.:55:57.

Cornwall but an expert I spoke to said that Cornwall wouldn't be there

:55:58.:56:01.

any more, most of England wouldn't be there any more, but Scotland

:56:02.:56:04.

would lose its population centres but most of the Highlands would

:56:05.:56:08.

still be there. So it seems to me to be the case that if civil government

:56:09.:56:12.

lasted anywhere, it would probably last in Scotland, so I thought I

:56:13.:56:15.

would ask the First Minister - nothing ventured, nothing gained.

:56:16.:56:20.

What did you do, write her a note and say, "Would you lie to play a

:56:21.:56:25.

part in this adaptation"? I sent her an e-mail which said, "I've written

:56:26.:56:30.

this script - do you fancy doing it?" I centre the script so she

:56:31.:56:34.

could see she was getting into anything controversial and she said

:56:35.:56:40.

yes. She trusted you, clearly. It does sound very dramatic - Cornwall

:56:41.:56:44.

disappearing, maybe parts of Scotland to. When can we hear the

:56:45.:56:48.

first instalment? The first instalment goes out on Radio 4 on

:56:49.:56:52.

Saturday afternoon and then next week the second instalment will go

:56:53.:56:54.

out and that is the instalment that features the First Minister. That

:56:55.:56:59.

was good, promoting a head. Should we be very scared? Very scared, yes.

:57:00.:57:05.

Thanks. Stay with us. Are you going to be listening? For a minute, I

:57:06.:57:10.

actually thought this was going to be one of those government

:57:11.:57:13.

programmes saying, "If you leave the EU, this is going to happen," so I

:57:14.:57:18.

was about to say, "Oh, my goodness, has the Government now said another

:57:19.:57:22.

plague is upon us"? But I'm glad it is fiction. Val McDermid, I have to

:57:23.:57:28.

congratulate you. I hope there isn't anything about the repeat in union

:57:29.:57:32.

in this script anywhere. I don't think there is. We wouldn't have

:57:33.:57:35.

been allowed to broadcast it if it was. We had to postpone broadcast

:57:36.:57:38.

anyway until after the Scottish elections. Compliance said that it

:57:39.:57:43.

gives the impression that Nicola Sturgeon would still be First

:57:44.:57:47.

Minister. So even you have had to be careful with your politics!

:57:48.:57:53.

You got that right! You would have been safe. Thanks

:57:54.:57:58.

very much for joining us and good luck. Thank you.

:57:59.:58:01.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

:58:02.:58:05.

The question was, how did our guest Iain Duncan Smith

:58:06.:58:07.

They are your initials, I take your point, Andrew.

:58:08.:58:13.

Was it a) invented by Clive Woodward during his school

:58:14.:58:15.

b) given to him by fellow students at Merchant Navy college in Wales,

:58:16.:58:19.

c) dreamt up by his old army colleagues,

:58:20.:58:21.

or d) thought up by conservative press officer Mike Penning to help

:58:22.:58:24.

I don't know any of those but I think the press office. It is the

:58:25.:58:29.

initials and it is the press office but it is the fact that Iain Duncan

:58:30.:58:33.

Smith became known as IDS. It was supposed to give you a profile.

:58:34.:58:38.

She doesn't get out much these days! These things excite her! Thanks

:58:39.:58:43.

Barry much to all our guests, even those with the initials IDS.

:58:44.:58:48.

I will be on This Week tonight with Michael Portillo,

:58:49.:58:50.

Jess Phillips, Nick Clegg, Helen Lewis, Brian Blessed

:58:51.:58:53.

and Francis Boulle from Made in Chelsea, and I'll be here at noon

:58:54.:58:56.

tomorrow with all the big political stories of the day -

:58:57.:58:59.

Jo Coburn and Andrew Neil are joined by Iain Duncan Smith to discuss EU migration, benefits sanctions and meritocracy.

Plus, writer Val McDermid on her new adaptation of a sci-fi classic featuring Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon.


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