14/06/2016 Daily Politics


14/06/2016

Jo Coburn is joined by Lord Digby Jones and Rachel Reeves MP to discuss Labour's efforts to get its vote out in the EU referendum and look-ahead to the by-election in Tooting.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:39.:00:40.

Labour lines up its big guns for a show of unity.

:00:41.:00:44.

Will it help get the party's vote out for Remain?

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Vote Leave highlight ?27 million spent by the EU on luxury

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hotels and resorts, restaurants and private jets.

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But is the spending which amounts to just one fortieth of one

:00:58.:01:00.

per cent of total EU spending really profligate?

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How will citizens in the home of Citizen Smith exercise

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their democratic rights when they go to the polls

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And we've asked Cass the Psychic Cat, we've

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asked the pollsters, but can the bookies give us a better

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idea of how Britain will vote in next week's referendum?

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All that in the next hour and with us for the whole

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of the programme today is the former Trade Minister in Gordon

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Brown's government of all the talents -

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He's now campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union.

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Now, they're not an alternative government of course,

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but Leave campaigners have today been setting out

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what they would like to be done with the money the UK pays

:01:50.:01:52.

to the EU, should voters opt to leave on 23rd June.

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In a letter, signed by Michael Gove and Boris Johnson, the Vote Leave

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campaign have pledged to protect the funding for farming, science

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and culture that they already receive from the EU until 2020.

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The letter goes on to argue that there would still be "billions

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more" to spend after those payments, and proposes putting ?5.5 billion

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into the NHS by 2020, or ?100 million a week.

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And use ?1.7 billion to abolish VAT on household energy bills.

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But Remain campaigners, including former Chancellor Alistair

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Darling, argue that the Leave campaign have already committed

:02:36.:02:38.

to more ?100 billion spending commitments

:02:39.:02:41.

with the money from the EU, and that leaving the EU

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would lead to a "black hole in the public finances",

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arguing that nine out of ten economists say it

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Under whose authority are vote lead campaign is making these

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commitments? I'm not part of the official campaign so I've no idea. I

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am definitely going to vote to leave but I'm reluctant in as much that I

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would love to stay in a reformed EU but I have no confidence in them

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doing that. My concern is that nobody on either side actually

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knows. They are peddling the possibilities on both sides as if it

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is fact. They are very close to doing a budget and an alternative

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budget. Is that what it sounds like? As you were reading that, I thought,

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this is like a Tuesday in March. What worries me is that, I know why

:03:43.:03:50.

they have to do it, because the economy is where Remain is trying

:03:51.:03:56.

hard to win. Do you think the Leave campaign has struggled on the

:03:57.:04:02.

economy? I think if Leave is winning on immigration and Remain is winning

:04:03.:04:06.

on the economy, the problem is with the economy is that nobody knows. I

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get frustrated by Remain who are saying this is going to happen and

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this is going to happen, I wouldn't trust an economist to run a bar! I

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remember I took the euro of the agenda at the CPI and I had 20

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economists writing saying it would be Armageddon if we don't join the

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Euro! And on that basis of don't know or both sides are peddling what

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they say are facts, how dangerous is it to have a list of spending

:04:41.:04:46.

commitments, this does come from Remain, but saying they have spent

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over and over again the money they say will be saved if we come out? I

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haven't gone through it any more than what you just said. If it

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doesn't stand up to the rigour, never use it, and I'm not sure

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Alistair Darling has done anything this morning other than what any

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politician would do. The trouble with politicians talking about this

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is they are skilled at getting people to vote, that is what they

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do. The first casualty in that fight is always the truth. I don't blame

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Johnson and Michael Gove for saying, if I saved this money, this is where

:05:29.:05:33.

I would spend it, and Remain saying you're not going to save that money.

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But we have to understand is that nobody knows. And one thing that

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nobody is saying is if you vote to remain, you are not voting for the

:05:45.:05:48.

status quo, you're voting for an entirely different sort of Europe.

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There will be an economic cost of staying in and of coming out. And if

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you're looking at the figures, and you are a businessman, if Vote Leave

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was a business... If the EU was a business it would be bust. And would

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Vote Leave be bussed if they have totalled up all these spending

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commitments from what is supposedly ?250 million a week. If it is true

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and I have pledged money they don't have, of course it won't happen. But

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who knows? We don't know, neither do they and neither do Remain. What I

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do know is that there will be an economic cost of hitching your wagon

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to yesterday's organisation in Asia's 21st century and there will

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be a market cost in the short term for coming out as well. If you think

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there will be a market cost, we will discuss that further, but on the

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politics, there is a Tory politician who has this morning said that Vote

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Leave can say that they're going to spend the money if Britain pulls out

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on these spending commitments because they have been made by Tory

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ministers so it can be true. Presumably he was making a political

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point and the answer is, politically, of course. Then you get

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into what we do in March which is listened to a budget and compare the

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alternative. I don't think it is right that politicians of both

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sides... I don't believe I want a Prime Minister who says I'm only

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looking after half the country. But you politicians on the other side

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saying it is a political debate. It isn't, it is about my grandchildren,

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which side of the world you want to working in their time. They should

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not be about an extra ?4.5 million should be available for subsidising

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theatres in five years' time. They are treating this as politics and

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immediate finances instead of looking out, down to microgeneration

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is about where Europe is, where is the economy, where is Asia's century

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and how you tool up for welfare, health care and pensions when the

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whole world is walking to the beat of a different drum. And both sides

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have had a go at things like pensions. We will talk about it

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further. The question for today is, what did

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European Council President Donald Tusk say Britain leaving the EU

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would lead to the destruction of? c) England's chances

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of winning Euro 2016. At the end of the show

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Digby will give Now, we have with us

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a former Trade Minister But while his former boss

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was strutting the stage yesterday, banging the drum for Remain,

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Digby is a businessman and former director general of the CBI,

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who is campaigning for Britain So what are the economic claims

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for and against our continued The Chancellor, George Osborne,

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has published Treasury analysis warning that a vote to leave

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is a vote for a DIY recession, with David Cameron later describing

:08:59.:09:01.

such a result as "a bomb under The Treasury analysis says that,

:09:02.:09:04.

in the worst circumstances, up to 820,000 jobs could be lost

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and growth could be up to 6% The IMF, OECD and IFS have also

:09:12.:09:14.

warned of a hit to the economy But the campaign group

:09:15.:09:24.

Economists for Brexit - made up of eight independent

:09:25.:09:29.

economists - suggests that leaving would see the UK economy

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actually grow more in 2020 They say that reduced EU regulation

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and better use of the money saved from not contributing to the EU

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budget would enable the UK The Remain campaign notes that,

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according to HMRC, 44% of British The Remainers say if we left

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that the EU could put up trade barriers, putting between 3

:09:52.:09:59.

and 4 million jobs linked to EU But critics say that

:10:00.:10:01.

because those jobs aren't linked directly to EU membership,

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we could do our own deal with the EU which would maintain levels of trade

:10:10.:10:12.

and safeguard employees. They also say that,

:10:13.:10:18.

while a member of the EU, the UK can't do its own trade deals

:10:19.:10:23.

with countries like America, India, or China - none of which currently

:10:24.:10:26.

have a trade deal with the EU. And the Leave side claim that EU

:10:27.:10:30.

regulation costs UK small businesses ?600 million a week and that

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removing this burden would allow Well, the Commons Business Committee

:10:34.:10:35.

has been talking to leading lights Here's a flavour of

:10:36.:10:45.

what they had to say. It is unprecedented to see so many

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FTSE 100 chairmen, chief executives, on behalf of their company,

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not in a personal capacity which is what they have done

:10:58.:11:00.

previously, to actually come out and say it is extraordinarily

:11:01.:11:03.

important for the future of Britain that we remain

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in the European Union. And of course these large businesses

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to employ 10 million people. It's 40% of all employment,

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over 50% of all turnover One of the things that concerns me

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about immigration, and I had this discussion with the Governor

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of the Bank of England a number of times last year,

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was about the downward Which at this point in the economic

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cycle should be rising now. I think for people in the country,

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that is one of the big concerns. Joining us to put the business

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case for remaining is Labour's Rachel Reeves,

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who shadowed both the Treasury and Work and Pensions departments

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during her frontbench career and is a former Bank

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of England economist. Welcome to the show. The CBI

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commissioned PWC to assist the economic impact of leaving the EU.

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If we remain, the economy could be 41% larger by 2030 but under one of

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the scenarios for leaving we strike free trade agreement and we would

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still grow by 39%. The difference is hardly game changing? It will be

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pretty game changing for people on ordinary incomes. If the economy

:12:23.:12:27.

grows more slowly than it would otherwise have done, that means less

:12:28.:12:30.

money at the end of the month to pay the rent and mortgage and the bills.

:12:31.:12:35.

But look at what will happen in the near term, what is already happening

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before we have even voted, and that is that sterling has fallen, stock

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markets have fallen, money is leaving the UK, business investment

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decisions are being postponed. What does it mean for ordinary people? We

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know what recessions mean because we saw it in 2008. Wages are falling or

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stagnating, people losing their homes and people losing their jobs.

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It is people on modest and middle incomes who always pay the highest

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price when economies falter and go into recession. If we make that

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decision in nine days, people should be under no illusions about what it

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means for the cost of living and jobs and growth. White should be

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risked even a slight shrinking in economic growth even if it is for

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the short term as the Vote Leave campaign is saying? Why should

:13:27.:13:28.

people be worried about the future of their jobs even in the short

:13:29.:13:33.

term? And if these scenarios are played out, there would be a

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shrinking and use it at the beginning you agreed. I see a

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perception causing a short-term job. Sterling has risen since March so

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please don't starve the alarmist about falling currency. It is at a

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two-month low. I said sterling and stock markets. It hasn't. Why did

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you say it has? It is at a two-month low. It is higher today than in

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March. But what happened before March? It has been fluctuating a

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lot. I want to deal in facts. Politicians come on here and save

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the pound has been falling, it hasn't. To answer your question,

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this is about the local competitiveness of our nation in

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Asia's century. We are hitched to an organisation that worked a treat

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between 1957 and 1990 and has failed - the 20 million people ever since.

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If we carry on like this, we will not be able to afford pensions and

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health care and welfare in 20 years' time will stop if somebody says, for

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a couple of years it's going to be not Armageddon and recession but

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difficult, but the reward is in 20 years you are globally competitive,

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it is very irresponsible of politicians... Would there be a

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reward after two years? Let's say there would be that short-term shock

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and sterling could fall and there might be some sort of downward

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pressure. If the economy was liberated, would that be something

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you could support? Look at what the Gordon Browner of

:15:20.:15:32.

the Bank of England has said: There will be a short-run cost to leaving

:15:33.:15:36.

the EU but there will be a long-run cost. We will no longer have access

:15:37.:15:39.

to the single market Yes you will. Brexit campaigners like Michael Gove

:15:40.:15:44.

and Boris Johnson say we will not be part of a single market. It doesn't

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mean we would not have access. You are either part of the single

:15:49.:15:53.

market, or you are not. ... You could negotiate access to it. Of

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course you can still trade but whether you have access in terms of

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a tariff-free trade, Brexiters are saying they don't want That if the

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single market means, what it means inner terms of wealth creation is

:16:09.:16:13.

zero tariff. Much more than that. On the services side, as you well know

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75% of our economy is services and the services directive isn't

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implemented in France, let alone anywhere else. The services

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directive doesn't work, Rachael. Don't talk over reach other. Go on,

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Rachael. In my constituency in Leeds, financial services is a huge

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part of our economy. Under the single market, there is pass porting

:16:33.:16:36.

rules, which means that companies who are registered here have access

:16:37.:16:42.

to be able to trade for the whole of the European Union. But it doesn't

:16:43.:16:46.

work. Well, explain the fact it doesn't work. I am on the board, one

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of my companies is an invoice company in London, we are trying to

:16:52.:16:56.

open in France. We have had French regulators say - we don't want

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British companies to do this. I have said there is a services directive,

:17:00.:17:04.

the single market. I hear Labour politicians tell me there is a

:17:05.:17:07.

single market I can make you. They say of course you can, take me to

:17:08.:17:12.

the court justice. I said I can't afford it. They say exactly. It is

:17:13.:17:16.

not going to happen. You don't know And neither do them. The single

:17:17.:17:21.

market is about zero tariff. It is much more than that. What would be

:17:22.:17:26.

the tariffs be? How high? At the moment, when there are tariffs,

:17:27.:17:30.

telepretty low No-one going to put them up from zero. The World Trade

:17:31.:17:36.

Organisation have said that it would be the worst-possible outcome - the

:17:37.:17:39.

worst possible outcome would be for us to leave the single market. What

:17:40.:17:44.

do they say the tariff levels would be? ? Different for different

:17:45.:17:49.

industries. In the car manufacturing it is between 10 and 12% Germany

:17:50.:17:54.

sell 1 million cars to British. The highest profit margin the in world

:17:55.:18:01.

is the British awe tow market dou. Think, Mercedes, BMW and Audi are

:18:02.:18:05.

going to I a plough Brussels to put a tariff on that, I don't think so.

:18:06.:18:10.

The point is, you have no idea what will happen? Neither have you and

:18:11.:18:15.

you sit well this aam laist stuff. You a typical middle age bloke who

:18:16.:18:19.

loves interrupting women. You don't know how to conduct yourself, Let me

:18:20.:18:23.

answer the question that Jo. Please answer the question and don't come

:18:24.:18:26.

out with all the stuff you normally do. There you go again. But,

:18:27.:18:31.

Rachael, answer. Off to your prejudice. Answer the specific

:18:32.:18:34.

question on tariffs. It is important, you don't know they would

:18:35.:18:38.

be put up to that level, either. The Brexiters like Gove and Johnson say

:18:39.:18:41.

they want to leave the single market, which means that we go on to

:18:42.:18:47.

WTO tariffs. Now we don't have, there is not a single example of a

:18:48.:18:50.

trade negotiation being done with the EU within two years. And of

:18:51.:18:54.

course, as soon as we leave the European Union, the Prime Minister

:18:55.:18:57.

says he will invoke article 50, which means in two years we will

:18:58.:19:00.

leave the European Union and after that period, we will be out of the

:19:01.:19:05.

single market, on the wcht TO tariffs We won't, we will negotiate

:19:06.:19:09.

T the German awe tow industry will never allow... And there is no

:19:10.:19:14.

example of... Let Digby finish. Go on. You finish that thought. Very

:19:15.:19:20.

kind of you. Tend of the day, the German motor industry is such an

:19:21.:19:25.

enormous lobbyist in Brussels it will never allow its awe tow

:19:26.:19:31.

industry not to tell into here on zero tariff, the auto industry. And

:19:32.:19:37.

the zero tariff, either in remain or leave, I have businesses where I

:19:38.:19:41.

want to get visas with Indians with engineering skills to come and work

:19:42.:19:46.

in my K I can't. Because you have a Government and the Labour Government

:19:47.:19:49.

would be the #15i78, they are saying - we are not going to give the visas

:19:50.:19:53.

outside, because we can't stop the ones coming inside. I couldn't care

:19:54.:19:58.

if they are Romanian engineers, it is not about where they come from,

:19:59.:20:02.

it is the skill. If you want competitiveness inside or outside,

:20:03.:20:04.

on a business footing, you have to allow us to fish in an immigration

:20:05.:20:10.

poof 100% of the world and not just 28%. It is an economic issue not

:20:11.:20:20.

immigration issue. One of the things raised by Tristan hunt on the

:20:21.:20:24.

discussion you had with him on is imrar ground is you wouldn't be able

:20:25.:20:29.

to get a deal with the EU unless you accept free movement of labour, do

:20:30.:20:33.

you think that's true? Yes. Why? Because, for example, with the

:20:34.:20:36.

Finance Minister in Germany and other countries have said - Digby

:20:37.:20:39.

says he wants to deal in facts, the fact is that no country has done a

:20:40.:20:43.

free trade agreement with the EU within two years. Canada has taken

:20:44.:20:46.

more than seven years. We are not Canada. And you would need the

:20:47.:20:49.

agreement of all 27 other Member States of the European Union to do

:20:50.:20:55.

any deal on access to their markets. Wouldn't that be a terrible

:20:56.:20:58.

disappointment for leave support zblerps if the country votes to

:20:59.:21:03.

leave the EU, a deal is for some sort of access, a good deal, on the

:21:04.:21:07.

single market but the quid pro quo has to be some sort of freedom of

:21:08.:21:12.

movement? And if there is a degree of freedom of movement based on

:21:13.:21:15.

skill what is wrong with that Free movement within the EU, you would

:21:16.:21:19.

sign up? I would tell you, if what was coming into Britain on offer,

:21:20.:21:23.

from inside or outside the EU was quality immigration and a lot of it,

:21:24.:21:28.

based on I will sk, I would put my hand up for, that it helps creating

:21:29.:21:31.

wealth to pay for schools Hain hospitals in Britain. What really

:21:32.:21:35.

does frustrate me is I have people in Brussels telling me that I can't

:21:36.:21:39.

fish in a pool of 100% of available labour and that diminishes my

:21:40.:21:42.

availability to be competitive and in 25 years' time, we will be doing

:21:43.:21:46.

stuff elsewhere and not Britain and you won't be able to afford the

:21:47.:21:49.

money you normally spend on your schools and hospitals. What do you

:21:50.:21:53.

say to that Well, I have two young children. I'm in my 30s, in 25

:21:54.:21:58.

years' time, I want my children to be able to go and live and work

:21:59.:22:01.

anywhere within the European Union. I want there to be good jobs and

:22:02.:22:05.

investment in this country and wanted to have first-rate public

:22:06.:22:08.

services. But at the moment, if you look like countries like Spain and

:22:09.:22:12.

Italy, for example and Greece, they all want to come here, the young

:22:13.:22:15.

people, because there are no jobs for them there at the moment. That's

:22:16.:22:19.

the reality Forestieri now? They are not skilled. There are huge problems

:22:20.:22:23.

within the European Union at the moment. I'm not saying everything is

:22:24.:22:27.

fievenlt I think this referendum is wake-up call to the European Union

:22:28.:22:29.

and British Government that things have to be done differently, on free

:22:30.:22:35.

dom of mo. , on jobs, on the whole approach to us a terry. - freedom of

:22:36.:22:41.

movement. We don't know what will happen if we walk away. If we leave,

:22:42.:22:44.

the European Union could fragment and break up and we will go back to

:22:45.:22:49.

the same situation that we saw in the 30s and 40s, and the instability

:22:50.:22:52.

there. If your plea that I don't interrupt you is valid, so is my

:22:53.:22:56.

request on on behalf of the viewers that you answer the question. The

:22:57.:23:01.

question was - why isn't business allowed to fish in a reservoir of

:23:02.:23:05.

100% of available talent in the world and why am I being told I can

:23:06.:23:11.

only get visa s for people who live in the European Union, or they don't

:23:12.:23:15.

need a veesia. If you look at net migration, there was more from this

:23:16.:23:18.

country from outside of the European Union. That's not the point. The

:23:19.:23:23.

point is I cannot get visaings on a universal basis. Would you want

:23:24.:23:27.

fewer people to come overall? No, I wouldn't. For me, it is not a

:23:28.:23:33.

numbers game. For me it is a skill, ability to create #w5e8, generate

:23:34.:23:36.

tax and pay for schools and Hobbings. -- create wealth. You are

:23:37.:23:43.

inhibiting businesses ability to create wealth by allowing anybody to

:23:44.:23:47.

come in from Europe and not allowed skilled people from overseas. I'm in

:23:48.:23:51.

the a Tory Government minister. Your Government did just the same. You

:23:52.:23:55.

were part of that Government Don't blame the Tories or Labour. This is

:23:56.:24:00.

not a tribal issue. It is the Tories who introduced a cap on numbers and

:24:01.:24:05.

have tried to squeeze out the number of non-EU migrants coming into the

:24:06.:24:09.

country. I think we need reform of free movement of labour. I don't

:24:10.:24:14.

think... Hang on a moment. While we have moved on to the territory of

:24:15.:24:17.

party politics. Stay with us, Rachael, because in the last half an

:24:18.:24:21.

hour, the Shadow Cabinet have gathered in a show of unity as they

:24:22.:24:28.

tried to press home Labour's message that Britain should remain inside

:24:29.:24:30.

the European Union. Conservatives Remainers have stepped

:24:31.:24:34.

aside this week amidst concern in their ranks that it's Labour

:24:35.:24:36.

voters who'll fail to turn out Here's what the Labour leader,

:24:37.:24:39.

Jeremy Corbyn, had to say. This is the Labour movement saying

:24:40.:24:42.

that we are voting to remain We are saying that because we want

:24:43.:24:45.

to defend the very many gains we have made by trade unions

:24:46.:24:53.

across Europe that have brought us better working conditions,

:24:54.:24:56.

longer holidays, less discrimination Jeremy Corbyn there. Franked by the

:24:57.:25:17.

shadow kab ne. Jeremy Corbyn has said he is only 7 to 7. Out of 10 on

:25:18.:25:25.

staying within the EU. Is he want of Leave's best assets? I don't think

:25:26.:25:28.

that's the answer he should have given. Others in the Shadow Cabinet

:25:29.:25:33.

are saying today that we are better off and Labour people are better off

:25:34.:25:36.

within the European Union because of the protection of workers' rights

:25:37.:25:40.

that are afforded by our membership of the European Union and because of

:25:41.:25:44.

the high-quality jobs that come to our country because of our

:25:45.:25:47.

membership. How worried are you, though, that Labour voters aren't

:25:48.:25:51.

going to turn out? It is a very real challenge. It is really important

:25:52.:25:55.

that Jeremy and the whole team are out there today, making the grossive

:25:56.:25:58.

case, the Labour case for our continued membership. -- the

:25:59.:26:03.

progressive case. What is it like for you on the doorsteps in your

:26:04.:26:08.

constituency? It is tough. My constituency in Leeds where averagep

:26:09.:26:11.

earnings are ?18,000 a year. A lot of people have seen over the last

:26:12.:26:15.

five-10 years, a real squeeze on living standards and income. Are

:26:16.:26:19.

they voting out? Many are. Is that Labour's failure? In many ways, it

:26:20.:26:24.

is. Because we need to make a compelling Labour case about

:26:25.:26:28.

good-quality jobs and investment, tackling some of the problems about

:26:29.:26:32.

wages being undercut and dealing, for example - one of the things we

:26:33.:26:37.

had in our last manifesto is no job should be able to advertise overseas

:26:38.:26:40.

before they are advertised in this country. Employment agencies and

:26:41.:26:43.

businesses are still able to do that. That means British workers not

:26:44.:26:48.

even having access to jobs. So it is really important in those last nine

:26:49.:26:51.

days, it is not just David Cameron and Osborne and the Tories making

:26:52.:26:54.

the case to stay in the European Union, but that we hear those Labour

:26:55.:26:57.

voices, including those trade union voices. What is the Labour message?

:26:58.:27:04.

Is it confused? You are a fan of ti. TP which is controversial for many

:27:05.:27:08.

within the Labour Party, whereas Jeremy Corbyn said he would veto

:27:09.:27:15.

that if it was a deal? So what is the Labour message on that? TITIP

:27:16.:27:20.

doesn't have to be a bad deal for Britain and British workers f it

:27:21.:27:25.

opens up jobs -- if it opens up jobs and investment it is a good thing

:27:26.:27:30.

for British export. Why is Jeremy Corbyn wanting to veto it? We said

:27:31.:27:34.

if it meant the privatisation of the NHS we would not support T we have

:27:35.:27:37.

had assurances from the United States and the European Union

:27:38.:27:40.

Commissioner that the health services, for example, will be

:27:41.:27:50.

exempt from those ti. -- from those TITIP laws. Well, he said he would

:27:51.:27:58.

veto it. Well, he hasn't. We want concern protections, for example,

:27:59.:28:00.

for the NHS and environment but let's not throw the baby out with

:28:01.:28:05.

the bath water. Free trade and bringing down the Paris barriers

:28:06.:28:10.

will mean cheapers prices for consumers, easing the cost of living

:28:11.:28:14.

pressures for many families and greater opportunities for British

:28:15.:28:17.

exspoerts but you asked me what was the labour case for staying in the

:28:18.:28:20.

European Union. It is about avoiding a race to the bottom b protecting

:28:21.:28:25.

workers' rights, crack down on tax avoidance as Gordon Brown said, and

:28:26.:28:32.

as Frances O'Grady, leader of the TUC said, about assuring

:28:33.:28:34.

high-quality jobs stay in the country. Can I ask you about it.

:28:35.:28:38.

ITIP? This makes people anxious about what it would mean in terms of

:28:39.:28:42.

opening up public services here. -- TITIP? Jeremy Corbyn has promised,

:28:43.:28:49.

so far, to veto T Rachael Reeve, certainly as it stands and if there

:28:50.:28:55.

was any indication that it might expose the NHS to American

:28:56.:28:58.

companies, for example? Where do you stand on this? In terms of the head

:28:59.:29:02.

looun I would be with right. I would say it has to be right to job your

:29:03.:29:07.

tariff barriers and to get more trade going to create in the medium

:29:08.:29:10.

term, more wealth for the country and therefore taxes and therefore,

:29:11.:29:13.

schools and hospitals. In terms of the NHS, which was the specific

:29:14.:29:17.

question, we all know that's a broken model. Not that it should,

:29:18.:29:21.

for a minute, ever go into the private sector but that we can't

:29:22.:29:25.

carry on with something created in 1947 to deal with a getting-older

:29:26.:29:29.

population. And people born today are going to live to be 100, you are

:29:30.:29:35.

not going to have 30-odd years with an organisation that wasn't built to

:29:36.:29:39.

do it. You have to change T the greatest way to change will be

:29:40.:29:41.

competition. You think done the right way, it would be the right

:29:42.:29:46.

thing to do I would use TITIP as a catalyst for getting change in the

:29:47.:29:49.

NHS. Could I ask you one question - when you said then - I want to stay

:29:50.:29:54.

in the European Union, to protect workers' rights, we have this most

:29:55.:29:59.

fabulous competitive automotive sector, fully unionised, completely

:30:00.:30:02.

unionised and applied Unite for the way they have dealt with our

:30:03.:30:07.

manufacturing. Ask the question. Nobody in their right mind is

:30:08.:30:13.

actually going to go back on the 40-hour week on agency directives

:30:14.:30:15.

and maternity and approximate ternity way. They woevenlt it is not

:30:16.:30:19.

in anybody's interests. There is no evidence. Why would any employer go

:30:20.:30:23.

back on that? And at the same time, when you are saying - we want it

:30:24.:30:27.

advertise jobs only in Britain, one of the things that free movement of

:30:28.:30:32.

labour at the moment is doing, is producing your race to the bottom

:30:33.:30:36.

because employers, especially small businesses are able to tap into poor

:30:37.:30:41.

people in Italy and Romania and give them low jobs. Answer that question.

:30:42.:30:45.

Well at the event we are talking about where Jeremy Corbyn is with

:30:46.:30:49.

the Shadow Cabinet Tom Watson has been talking to the BBC saying there

:30:50.:30:53.

should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants under any

:30:54.:30:55.

future Government. Is he right? Yes and I agree with what Ed balls

:30:56.:31:04.

said on this. Before the last election I talked about workers not

:31:05.:31:09.

having access to tax credits and benefit system until they have been

:31:10.:31:15.

here for at least four years. If you had to pay into the system before

:31:16.:31:20.

you draw down on it. You do need reform. Have wages being depressed?

:31:21.:31:25.

There are winners and losers from immigration and some people have

:31:26.:31:28.

lost out because they have been competing for jobs. This is a

:31:29.:31:32.

wake-up call to people and whatever the result in nine days, we need to

:31:33.:31:39.

reform the European Union. Workers' rights have been hard fought for and

:31:40.:31:44.

every step of the way... They have been opposed... There is no evidence

:31:45.:31:49.

that any Tory government or any government would roll back those

:31:50.:31:52.

rights. They are guaranteed because we are members of the EU. No,

:31:53.:31:56.

because the market would not have it any other way. Thank you for coming

:31:57.:32:00.

in. Now, if going to the polls once this

:32:01.:32:01.

month isn't enough for you, then you might envy the people

:32:02.:32:04.

of Tooting who have two opportunities to exercise

:32:05.:32:07.

their rights as citizens. The by-election that will be held

:32:08.:32:09.

there this Thursday was prompted by the elevation of its previous MP,

:32:10.:32:15.

Sadiq Khan, to the position And, as Adam reports,

:32:16.:32:18.

it's a part of South London that might be familiar to television

:32:19.:32:21.

viewers of a certain vintage as home to a certain, fictional,

:32:22.:32:24.

left-leaning citizen. This is where the BBC

:32:25.:32:27.

filmed the 70s sitcom about an old Marxist,

:32:28.:32:36.

Citizen Smith. Let's meet some of the people

:32:37.:32:41.

auditioning to be the area's new MP. Labour has tried to inject some

:32:42.:32:46.

adrenaline by selecting I'm going to be the lady that works

:32:47.:32:49.

with Sadiq Khan to make sure that we build affordable homes

:32:50.:32:56.

to buy and rent and I'm going to be Well, I am a Labour Party

:32:57.:33:00.

member, I am my own woman. This isn't about Corbyn or Cameron

:33:01.:33:08.

for me, it's about uniting as the Labour Party

:33:09.:33:11.

on the issues that matter. When the Tory candidate

:33:12.:33:13.

is not running for office, which he has done before,

:33:14.:33:15.

he runs a group that Generally it tends to be people

:33:16.:33:18.

in office jobs who want to go and get their hands dirty

:33:19.:33:22.

at the weekend and go and cut some It's good fun actually, going along,

:33:23.:33:26.

and any group that needs Setting up street festivals,

:33:27.:33:29.

those kinds of things, just to make the area a bit more fun

:33:30.:33:35.

and look a bit more spruce. Is that the lesser spotted Big

:33:36.:33:38.

Society? You might say that but I

:33:39.:33:41.

couldn't possibly comment. I found the Green candidate checking

:33:42.:33:46.

on a gadget she had installed It's a real problem,

:33:47.:33:48.

it's not just a fantasy Green problem, it's a problem

:33:49.:33:54.

that is affecting many people The state of the roads

:33:55.:33:57.

worries the Lib Dems too. We have been lobbying as a local

:33:58.:34:03.

party on those subjects, on safer streets, for years

:34:04.:34:06.

and nothing has been done. This is very much a Liberal topic

:34:07.:34:11.

and a Liberal vote to be made. Have you done one of those typical

:34:12.:34:17.

Lib Dem leaflets where you are pictured standing,

:34:18.:34:19.

pointing at a road? While the Ukip candidate will be

:34:20.:34:23.

glad when we are talking We have just had the GLA election,

:34:24.:34:32.

the mayoral election, and now we have the huge one

:34:33.:34:38.

on the 23rd of June so really this is like the little child,

:34:39.:34:42.

isn't it? But how will the contenders cope

:34:43.:34:44.

when I ask them to recreate the catchphrase of Tooting's

:34:45.:34:50.

favourite fictional son? The people of Tooting get the power

:34:51.:34:52.

to pick one of them on Thursday. And you can find a full list

:34:53.:35:23.

of candidates standing in the Tooting by-election

:35:24.:35:28.

on the BBC News website. EU officials have been accused

:35:29.:35:32.

of spending millions of pounds of taxpayers' money every year

:35:33.:35:35.

on "jollies and exorbitant An investigation by Vote Leave

:35:36.:35:37.

claims that the European Commission spent ?27 million on so-called

:35:38.:35:44.

"luxury" just in 2014. The claims included

:35:45.:35:49.

?347,863 on private jets, including ?17,565 on the five star

:35:50.:35:56.

Shangri La Hotel in Singapore, has dismissed the allegations

:35:57.:36:06.

as "simply absurd". Earlier I spoke to the

:36:07.:36:22.

Labour MEP and former European Council spokesman,

:36:23.:36:24.

Richard Corbett. I started by asking him what he made

:36:25.:36:29.

of the claims. Well, let's look at the source

:36:30.:36:33.

of this for a start. It's Vote Leave, it's the Vote Leave

:36:34.:36:36.

campaign which has come up with some pretty dodgy figures

:36:37.:36:39.

and statistics in the past. But even if some of them

:36:40.:36:41.

were true, and actually, if you look at some of them,

:36:42.:36:44.

they are stretching it a bit, yes, ministerial meetings

:36:45.:36:47.

sometimes happen in hotels. Yes, some of those hotels may

:36:48.:36:50.

offer massage facilities. It doesn't mean any ministers used

:36:51.:36:54.

those facilities for heavens sake. But even if some of these

:36:55.:36:57.

claims were correct, of course they should be

:36:58.:36:59.

investigated and clamped down on. You don't think it's right that EU

:37:00.:37:07.

officials spent 222,716 If that claim is correct,

:37:08.:37:10.

it needs to be checked. What I suspect it is,

:37:11.:37:15.

is that ministerial meetings took Yes, ministerial meetings

:37:16.:37:17.

across the world take No-one would argue with that

:37:18.:37:22.

but I think it is the amounts. Is it justifiable to talk

:37:23.:37:29.

about 5-star hotels Should EU taxpayers be paying

:37:30.:37:31.

for expenses like that? If there is any extra luxuries

:37:32.:37:38.

involved that are not connected That is why these things

:37:39.:37:40.

should be investigated. But let's not forget,

:37:41.:37:45.

the EU used to be pretty bad at this and things have got quite

:37:46.:37:48.

a lot better. So if I give you some

:37:49.:37:50.

more examples. I rather suspect that some

:37:51.:37:52.

of them are made up, I mean, on golf, you may well look

:37:53.:38:08.

into that and find that a hotel where a ministerial meeting took

:38:09.:38:17.

place, perhaps, had That doesn't mean they spent

:38:18.:38:19.

their time playing But it looks good, doesn't it,

:38:20.:38:22.

if you put it in a press release and say all this money

:38:23.:38:28.

was spent at a golf venue! What about, in your position

:38:29.:38:30.

as an adviser to Herman Van Rompuy, the former president

:38:31.:38:33.

of the European Council, Or is he happy with something

:38:34.:38:35.

a little less glamorous? He was a very modest man

:38:36.:38:42.

and never sought any glamour And so he did stay in 5-star

:38:43.:38:45.

hotels or did he stay When he went to the G8

:38:46.:38:52.

summit in Washington, hosted by President Obama,

:38:53.:38:58.

they stayed in Camp David. But it wasn't his

:38:59.:39:00.

choice of venue. Some of it is labelled as routine

:39:01.:39:02.

administrative expenditure and you are quite right,

:39:03.:39:08.

of course organisations have to spend some money

:39:09.:39:10.

in terms of going away, meeting with other

:39:11.:39:13.

dignitaries abroad. But have you ever come across,

:39:14.:39:17.

in your time, any egregious expenses Not personally but I have read

:39:18.:39:20.

of things and auditors reports have The important thing

:39:21.:39:29.

is to be able to clamp down And there, the record

:39:30.:39:32.

in recent years, is that when abuse has taken place,

:39:33.:39:37.

the EU has got a lot better at clamping down on things,

:39:38.:39:40.

partly thanks to MEPs and the European Parliament asking

:39:41.:39:42.

questions and pinning them down. Partly thanks to the Court

:39:43.:39:45.

of Auditors, appointed by the member states,

:39:46.:39:47.

remember, which goes through things

:39:48.:39:48.

with a fine tooth comb. And it has now signed off the EU

:39:49.:39:55.

Council for the last nearly ten years, whereas in the past,

:39:56.:40:00.

year after year it refused to sign off the accounts because they

:40:01.:40:03.

were not good enough. Now they are good enough

:40:04.:40:05.

and that's an improvement. It doesn't look good in the public

:40:06.:40:07.

imagination, does it? Which is exactly why Vote Leave put

:40:08.:40:16.

together this dossier. And looking at their track record

:40:17.:40:21.

of claims and allegations, indeed in some cases fibs,

:40:22.:40:26.

I would take with a pinch of salt every one of those allegations

:40:27.:40:29.

until I have looked through and checked if there was any

:40:30.:40:34.

truth in them at all. Do you think it will do any damage

:40:35.:40:36.

to the Remain campaign? That's what it intended to do

:40:37.:40:39.

by them, of course, to focus away from the big economic arguments,

:40:40.:40:42.

the fact that leaving the European Union, the economic

:40:43.:40:44.

impact of that on Britain Almost all economic forecasters,

:40:45.:40:47.

who are usually all over the place but for once they all agree,

:40:48.:40:53.

that this would be a disaster for Britain if we left

:40:54.:40:56.

the European Union. They want to take

:40:57.:40:58.

attention away from that. Do you think a bit about cheap shot

:40:59.:41:11.

by Vote Leave? The biggest problem for me is only ?931 on chocolate! I

:41:12.:41:17.

don't think it is a cheap shot because it is exploiting a bigger

:41:18.:41:22.

thing which it is whether ?300,000 in a private jet, that is not the

:41:23.:41:26.

issue, the issue is trust and transparency. It took an

:41:27.:41:28.

investigation to find these figures, they are not on a website. People

:41:29.:41:34.

thinking this fulfilled my prejudices, unaccountable people

:41:35.:41:40.

spending my money. Do you think it is that bad? I expected it to be

:41:41.:41:44.

worse than those figures. They do have to spend money but they are

:41:45.:41:49.

accountable. They are missing the big one, which is ?100 million a

:41:50.:41:56.

year of everybody's money to move the parliament once a month from

:41:57.:42:01.

Brussels to Strasbourg to satisfy French pride. ?100 million to do

:42:02.:42:07.

something you don't need to do! There are moves to stop that

:42:08.:42:10.

happening. The French will make it difficult. It is like Labour saying

:42:11.:42:15.

we need to stop some free movement and they are right but eastern

:42:16.:42:20.

Europe won't agree. The trouble is this organisation is that you cannot

:42:21.:42:24.

reform it. He is being very straight about it and saying of course we

:42:25.:42:28.

need to root it out. It is how you do it that is the problem.

:42:29.:42:30.

Now, back in 1975 most Trade Unions were in favour of Britain

:42:31.:42:33.

Today most are campaigning to stay in.

:42:34.:42:36.

But a small number of them are campaigning to leave and there's

:42:37.:42:39.

been a lively debate about whether EU membership really

:42:40.:42:41.

We've invited trade unionists from both sides of the debate

:42:42.:42:46.

First, Manuel Cortes of the Transport Union -

:42:47.:42:50.

Let's face it, on 24th June, if we leave the EU, we won't be

:42:51.:43:09.

a step closer to a socialist Nirvana.

:43:10.:43:16.

Instead, we will have a vicious, vicious Tory Government whose loony

:43:17.:43:19.

fringe would have been boosted and determined to destroy

:43:20.:43:21.

all the gains people have made through our membership

:43:22.:43:24.

From paid holidays to restrictions on working time.

:43:25.:43:32.

From safer work places to maternity and parental leave.

:43:33.:43:34.

In the case of rail workers, the EU protections they currently

:43:35.:43:41.

enjoy, that allows them to keep their hard-fought terms

:43:42.:43:48.

and conditions when franchises change hands, will be under severe,

:43:49.:43:50.

That's why I will be campaigning extremely

:43:51.:43:52.

But in doing so, I will also be looking to win hearts and minds.

:43:53.:43:58.

Hearts and minds to create another Europe.

:43:59.:44:00.

A social Europe that everyone deserves.

:44:01.:44:03.

I strongly urge you to vote to stay in.

:44:04.:44:06.

And by working together, with ordinary people

:44:07.:44:09.

across the continent, another Europe, for the many,

:44:10.:44:12.

not the few, is not only possible, but it is firmly,

:44:13.:44:15.

Manuel Cortes of the TSSA union there making the case for Remain.

:44:16.:44:31.

Now Mick Cash of the other transport union, the RMT, with

:44:32.:44:34.

My union, RMT, opposes the UK's membership of the EU because it has

:44:35.:44:51.

a negative impact on industry and for workers.

:44:52.:44:55.

Our members have seen the impact of EU policies of liberalisation,

:44:56.:44:58.

deregulation and privatisation, which have devastated

:44:59.:45:03.

industries, including the UK's coal and steel sectors.

:45:04.:45:05.

The Tory Prime Minister, John Major, broke up and privatised British Rail

:45:06.:45:08.

This is one example of the bonfire public services, demanded by the EU

:45:09.:45:14.

As a public service union, how can we support this

:45:15.:45:22.

The EU has promoted the undercutting of wages and the social

:45:23.:45:26.

dumping of cheap labour, leading to the decimation

:45:27.:45:28.

The same is happening in the offshore energy industry.

:45:29.:45:31.

EU directives also undermine our trade union collective

:45:32.:45:33.

Some argue that we should stay and fight for something better,

:45:34.:45:39.

The idea of a social Europe is a myth.

:45:40.:45:42.

For all these reasons, the RMT is calling

:45:43.:45:44.

And one of his colleagues, Alex Gordon, joins me now and we're

:45:45.:45:58.

also joined by Cath Speight of the GMB union who is

:45:59.:46:00.

Welcome to both you. Alex Gordon, the TUC general section, Franciso

:46:01.:46:13.

Grady is warning in a peach there will be less money available to fund

:46:14.:46:18.

the NHS if the UK votes to leave the EU. It is aern with aing reiterate

:46:19.:46:23.

by the Chief Executive of the NHS, so what assurances can you give that

:46:24.:46:27.

there will be money for a costly public service? It is a costly

:46:28.:46:30.

public service and a service we are proud of. Most people in this

:46:31.:46:33.

country want to invest in, through their taxes, the danger to the NHS,

:46:34.:46:36.

comes from remaining in the European Union, and from the threat of the

:46:37.:46:42.

transatlantic trade and investment partnership, the EU-US trade deal

:46:43.:46:45.

that will open up the NHS for private health care companies from

:46:46.:46:49.

America. What evidence do you have it'll do that? It is absolutely

:46:50.:46:54.

clear from the very few leaks made from the proceedings in the

:46:55.:46:57.

negotiations, that that is the ageneral daft American negotiators.

:46:58.:46:59.

We have not signed up to that deal, yet? We haven't but it is being done

:47:00.:47:08.

in -- that is the agenda of the American negotiators. We haven't

:47:09.:47:14.

signed up to it. What due say an the argument around this partnership

:47:15.:47:19.

between the EU and US many Labour and union supporters are worried

:47:20.:47:22.

about it. We are working hard with the Labour MEPs to make sure that

:47:23.:47:27.

public services are exempt from TITIP and our services are protected

:47:28.:47:32.

but Alex's argument, if we believe that a Brexit vote would make our

:47:33.:47:38.

NHS and public services safer, with the Tory Government, with probably

:47:39.:47:43.

Boris or Michael Gove in charge, the Tory Government are already

:47:44.:47:46.

privatised the NHS by stealth. And if we think a Brexit vote we will be

:47:47.:47:52.

safe safer and the NHS will be safer in the Tory Government's hands

:47:53.:47:55.

they... They will claim they are not privatising it by stealth and it was

:47:56.:47:58.

opened up under a Labour Government initially to some sort of

:47:59.:48:01.

competition but on Kath's broader point, why do you think the NHS

:48:02.:48:04.

would be safer, particularly with a British gfted that could be a

:48:05.:48:07.

Conservative Government, that you wouldn't support? Well, the NHS

:48:08.:48:10.

isn't safe in Tory hands but of course the best way it make sure it

:48:11.:48:15.

is not in Tory hands is to vote to come out of the European Union? Why?

:48:16.:48:18.

They have said they'll spend more money. The Leigh campaign says

:48:19.:48:24.

they'll spend the money that goes to the EU on the NHS? That's a fine

:48:25.:48:28.

promise but it is a Conservative r Conservative Government with a

:48:29.:48:31.

majority of 12, they are deeply split. If we vote to come out of the

:48:32.:48:37.

EU, Cameron is out of office, he will be sacked by his own party and

:48:38.:48:41.

we'll have a general election. A clear message from Labour figures

:48:42.:48:45.

like John McDonnell are saying a Tory Brexit would impose further

:48:46.:48:49.

austerity cuts. It would be workers who would suffer because the economy

:48:50.:48:54.

would shrink and a loss of workers' rights, is he wrong? I think he is

:48:55.:48:58.

wrong. The fact is austerity is the programme of the European Commission

:48:59.:49:03.

and European Union. They have driven it relentlessly from Greece to

:49:04.:49:06.

Portugal and every country in between. Britain is not ex-tempt

:49:07.:49:09.

from austerity measures because we are not part of the eurozone. We

:49:10.:49:13.

still have to be part of stability and growth agreement and follow the

:49:14.:49:17.

recommendations from the European Commission issued every November.

:49:18.:49:21.

Britain is facing austerity because of EU policies and directives. What

:49:22.:49:26.

do you say? The example of Greece is clear to everybody, they screamed

:49:27.:49:31.

austerity. The UK is the fifth largest economy until the world. So

:49:32.:49:36.

say we can be compared with Greece is a bit silly. On austerity, it is

:49:37.:49:42.

a political L it was the political will of the Coalition Government and

:49:43.:49:47.

now the Tory Government to impose us a terry. Austerity doesn't go, you

:49:48.:49:50.

know to the very richest. -- to impose austerity. It is the very

:49:51.:49:57.

poorest in our country who have paid for us a terry. When you can give

:49:58.:50:01.

tax cuts to the richest and take ?30 from disabled people... So what is

:50:02.:50:05.

the EU doing? You talking here about national politics. What is your

:50:06.:50:09.

argument for remaining in the EU to protect those people that you say

:50:10.:50:12.

has suffered as a result of austerity? The EU needs changes and

:50:13.:50:17.

reforming, we not saying in GMB it is perfect and we have to stay. We

:50:18.:50:22.

have to stay in it to reform T we want a social Europe that looks

:50:23.:50:25.

after workers, whether in the UK or Spain or Germany or anywhere else

:50:26.:50:28.

and that looks after the most vulnerable in society. Do you think

:50:29.:50:35.

workers, or British wages have been depressed, kept lower because of

:50:36.:50:41.

people coming from EU countries? Well, when a business can go to

:50:42.:50:47.

Romania or any other of the eastern European countries and advertise

:50:48.:50:50.

jobs there, before they have been advertised in this country, then,

:50:51.:50:54.

yes. That's why you are putting... Why do you want it stay in the EU?

:50:55.:50:59.

We are already looking at reform. The commission have agreed to look

:51:00.:51:02.

at the posting of workers' directive, which means that a woke

:51:03.:51:06.

coming from another part of the EU can be paid what they would have

:51:07.:51:10.

been paid in their own country, instead of being paid what they

:51:11.:51:13.

should be paid in this country. We are looking for an even playing

:51:14.:51:16.

field. Therefore, it is the exploiters we should go after, not

:51:17.:51:21.

the people being exploited. Let's look at sterling, Alex Gordon, you

:51:22.:51:25.

retweeted on June 11th that sterling fell by more than 1% against the

:51:26.:51:31.

dollar as traders showed the independent poll showing country

:51:32.:51:33.

vote towards the Leave. You are on record saying a fall in a pound

:51:34.:51:37.

would be a good thing. Why? It is overvalued. It makes exports very

:51:38.:51:43.

unaffordable. The fact is that the current exchange rate of ?1 is set

:51:44.:51:48.

for the interests of the City of London and the banks that want cheap

:51:49.:51:51.

money washing in and out. The interests of ordinary people in

:51:52.:51:54.

Britain is not the same as the interests of the banks. We should

:51:55.:51:56.

have healthy manufacturing sector that. Would be assisted by a fall in

:51:57.:52:00.

the value of the pound. All right. We are going to leave it there.

:52:01.:52:02.

Thank you both very much. Now, it probably hasn't escaped your

:52:03.:52:07.

notice that we're in the middle And there are strict rules

:52:08.:52:09.

for broadcasters to balance the arguments on each side

:52:10.:52:17.

of the debate. As you saw demonstrated earlier on

:52:18.:52:20.

in the show. So how does the BBC

:52:21.:52:22.

going about doing that? The BBC at Westminster

:52:23.:52:24.

on a Wednesday. It's midday and Prime Minister's

:52:25.:52:28.

Questions. Everyone is busy organising

:52:29.:52:30.

a disco for afterwards - you get the drinks I'll

:52:31.:52:36.

get the crisps. No, not that kind of disco,

:52:37.:52:40.

it is the shorthand we use to describe a discussion

:52:41.:52:48.

on a programme, but, how do you make sure

:52:49.:52:50.

you get the right people? In the Daily Politics' studio,

:52:51.:52:52.

like every Wednesday, two senior MPs standing by to say

:52:53.:52:54.

who won PMQs. We have to balance political

:52:55.:52:57.

parties and viewpoints, particularly in the run-up

:52:58.:53:01.

to something as important So today, for example we had

:53:02.:53:03.

Labour's Lisa Nandy, part of the Shadow Cabinet -

:53:04.:53:08.

firmly behind the Remain camp. And former Defence Secretary,

:53:09.:53:11.

Liam Fox for the Conservatives. Now although he is not a Cabinet

:53:12.:53:14.

minister, he represents the Leave We did the same last week

:53:15.:53:17.

but in reverse. We had a Conservative

:53:18.:53:22.

minister for Remain, Ed Vaizey and we had a Labour

:53:23.:53:25.

leaver, Kate Hoey. Kate Hoey has popped up again around

:53:26.:53:29.

the corner, she is discoing with Patrick McLaughlin,

:53:30.:53:32.

the Transport Secretary The World at One, this

:53:33.:53:33.

is Shaun Ley at Westminster. Hang on, there are hardly any

:53:34.:53:40.

of them left any more. How come he gets to sit

:53:41.:53:48.

at the top table? He's a former minister

:53:49.:53:51.

from the Coalition Government. He is one of the handful of plucky

:53:52.:53:53.

Liberal Democrat survivors Nonetheless, they are still

:53:54.:53:56.

a presence at Westminster and still obviously a political

:53:57.:54:01.

presence in the country. But if you were a listener

:54:02.:54:04.

who supported the Greens or SNP, for example, you wouldn't think

:54:05.:54:06.

that was a balanced panel. To which my response would be,

:54:07.:54:09.

we have hadded SNP on and They are now the third largest

:54:10.:54:12.

party at Westminster. It is absolutely right

:54:13.:54:15.

that they should be a regular They actually are probably

:54:16.:54:18.

on more frequently than That wouldn't have been the case

:54:19.:54:22.

in the last Parliament. As for Ukip, they got almost

:54:23.:54:26.

4 million votes but earned them a single MP, Douglas Carswell

:54:27.:54:30.

and so he has made one appearance on the World At One PMQs' panel

:54:31.:54:34.

in the past six months, although Ukipers have been

:54:35.:54:36.

interviewed for other Back in the office, the producers

:54:37.:54:38.

are grappling with how to fit a lot of politics

:54:39.:54:44.

into not a lot of air time. You cannot rely on the stopwatch

:54:45.:54:48.

rule of politics which says you give 30 seconds for him and 30

:54:49.:54:51.

seconds for her. In 30 seconds somebody might say

:54:52.:54:54.

all they need to say. In 30 seconds, somebody else

:54:55.:54:57.

might barely get going. And look, even the microphones

:54:58.:54:59.

in the studio are balanced We've had Cass the Psychic Cat,

:55:00.:55:04.

who plumped for Remain by the way, we've had the pollsters -

:55:05.:55:17.

they're sitting on the fence - but could it actually be

:55:18.:55:20.

the bookmakers who can most accurately predict the result

:55:21.:55:22.

of the EU referendum? Well, Matthew Shaddick,

:55:23.:55:26.

who runs political betting at Ladbrokes,

:55:27.:55:30.

is out on College Green Nice and big so I can read T what

:55:31.:55:39.

are the odds at the moment? We are currently showing 8-13 will he main

:55:40.:55:43.

and 5-4 Leave. Big move for Leave overnight. That implies we think

:55:44.:55:48.

there is a 42% chance that the UK is going to vote to Leave the European

:55:49.:55:52.

Union. As you say a major move, certainly since the last time I had

:55:53.:55:56.

a look at the odds. What due base that prediction on? . Mostly it is

:55:57.:56:00.

based on the amount of money taking from our customers, which has

:56:01.:56:02.

shifted heavily towards Leave over the last few days. That chance was

:56:03.:56:08.

only 25% on Monday and we're probably only one very good poll for

:56:09.:56:12.

Leave away from them becoming favourites to win the vote. What do

:56:13.:56:16.

you think is driving people to put money on Leave? The pos have been

:56:17.:56:20.

more favourable for them this week. I guess also the Sunjic coming out

:56:21.:56:25.

for Leave overnight -- the Sun coming out. No big surprise there.

:56:26.:56:30.

Who is placing the bet and does it skew the predictions? I don't think

:56:31.:56:34.

so. I think it is a wide cross section of Ladbrokes' customers and

:56:35.:56:37.

people betting for the first time. The nearer you get to the vote, the

:56:38.:56:42.

more we will see people who perhaps aren't that interested in politics,

:56:43.:56:45.

but perhaps have a strong view on this vote, coming out to have a bet.

:56:46.:56:49.

I guess those people are more likely to be on the Leave side. Let's test

:56:50.:56:53.

your track record. How well did you do in the general election? Not too

:56:54.:56:58.

bad on some days, on polling day, the polls were saying it would be a

:56:59.:57:01.

dead heat between Labour and the Tories but the betting market was

:57:02.:57:04.

saying there was an 80% chance that the Tories would be the biggest

:57:05.:57:09.

party. I can't say we did much better than anybody else at spotting

:57:10.:57:13.

the Tory majority. We didn't do well at that. That cost us about ?1

:57:14.:57:18.

million. It cost you ?1 million Yes, not a good day for us. Are you a

:57:19.:57:22.

betting man? Aim know not actually. I don't do that. Matthew... Will you

:57:23.:57:27.

on this occasion. I'm interested in this, do you have any big bets on

:57:28.:57:32.

either side. Don't tell me it is not our business on which side you went

:57:33.:57:37.

on. What is your biggest bet? This week we had somebody in a shop on

:57:38.:57:43.

Dover having ?10,000 on Leave. Numerous votes in the 10s and 20,000

:57:44.:57:49.

in Remain. Last week Nigel Farage popped into a shot and had ?1,000.

:57:50.:57:56.

The other question is What is the volume of money... We have run out

:57:57.:58:00.

of time. I'm the presenter. We have run out of time. You will have to

:58:01.:58:02.

ask that next time. And I mentioned earlier that Cass

:58:03.:58:05.

the Psychic Cat plumped for Remain But it's since emerged

:58:06.:58:08.

that the feline has failed at the first hurdle,

:58:09.:58:12.

incorrectly predicting an England win in last Saturday's

:58:13.:58:14.

match against Russia. There's just time before we go

:58:15.:58:15.

to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was, what did

:58:16.:58:20.

European Council President Donald Tusk say Britain leaving the EU

:58:21.:58:23.

would lead to the destruction of? c) England's chances

:58:24.:58:25.

of winning Euro 2016. I couldn't let the England team take

:58:26.:58:36.

my dog for a walk. They can't hang on to a lead! Boom, boom.

:58:37.:58:43.

Oh, dear Although grandiose and alarmist, it is the destruction of

:58:44.:58:47.

western civilisation. Do you think it might have been an everat the

:58:48.:58:51.

same time? Just a tad. That's it for today. Thank you to

:58:52.:58:56.

all of our guests, especially Digby for being Guest of the day. That's

:58:57.:58:59.

it from us, the 1.00 Hello. Today we're road-testing

:59:00.:59:01.

the BBC iPlayer Kids app.

:59:02.:59:05.

Jo Coburn is joined by Lord Digby Jones and Rachel Reeves MP to discuss Labour's efforts to get its vote out in the EU referendum, a look-ahead to the by-election in Tooting and the latest betting odds on a Leave or Remain result on 23 June.


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