22/06/2016 Daily Politics

The final live debate of the EU referendum campaign took place

at Wembley Arena last night in front of thousands of people.

We talk to Andrea Leadsom from Leave and Kezia Dugdale from Remain.

Politicians are making their final pitch for votes in the last

day of campaigning, emphasising their main arguments

And we have a full guide explaining everything you need to know to get

Going to bed at seven o'clock in the evening and maybe waking up

You even get sleeping advice on this programme. I don't know what more we

can do as a public service broadcaster.

And with us for the whole of the programme today

are the Leader of the Labour Party in Scotland, Kezia Dugdale,

in the EU and the Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom,

Now just last night, Andrea was on the stage at Wembley Arena

debating live in front of thousands of people.

You must have quite some stamina to be on the Daily

The BBC's Great Debate featured almost two hours of questions

on immigration, the economy and sovereignty and Andrea was one

Let's give you a flavour of what happened.

They came not for a Bon Jovi concert or Spice Girls reunion

but for the BBC's Great Debate, and they came from everywhere.

4 million switched on at home and there were thousands in the arena.

We've got a massive stage, which has got six lecterns on it.

It perked up as the credits rolled and straightaway it was blue on blue

as the Conservative panellists clashed on the economy.

Small businesses are the backbone of our economy and I know that some

people can find the EU a bit frustrating and fussy but what it

does, it provides a level playing field so that you can't be

undercut by other companies in other parts of the world.

That's why eight out of ten of the CBI's small-business members

Most economies can agree free trade deals within two years.

The European Union is taking ten years or never at all.

Because 28 member states cannot even organise a takeaway curry,

let alone what they are going to do on free trade with the rest

And it was mayor on ex-mayor over war and peace.

It's not a choice between the EU and Nato or the EU and allies.

We can still have a special relationship with the USA and be

And tell me this, anyone of you, which one of our allies -

USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia...

Which one of the Nato members is encouraging us to leave the EU?

The European Union is not keeping up with the deal.

It is creating unemployment in Greece, it is outsourcing

It is undermining Nato by trying to duplicate the same structures.

And there was a to-do about the number of immigrants

And I think the Leave campaign are selling people a big con,

You have never promised to reduce numbers.

Has the Leave campaign ever promised to reduce numbers?

What we said is you take back control and you can decide.

On the second debate stage, there was definitely passion.

I think it's a bit rich that the Remain side are so devoid

of any arguments that they have to smear us as racists and bigots,

I went to a business in my constituency last Friday

and they are a small business, they are exporting to Romania.

They have a contract to provide play equipment over there.

That contract is entirely contingent - there is a clause in that contract

that if we vote Out on Friday, they lose that contract.

That is the case for hundreds of businesses across the country.

As the clock counted down to the finale, Boris

Johnson got the last word and a standing ovation.

If we stand up for democracy, we will be speaking up for hundreds

of millions of people around Europe who agree with us but who

And if we vote Leave and take back control, I believe that this

Thursday could be our country's Independence Day.

In the spin room, Leavers reckoned

they won on passion, Remainers felt they'd caught

The Brexiter campaign was predicated on standing on top of a cliff.

They don't know how deep, how steep the cliff is,

how large the drop is going to be or how deep the water

But they're going to jump all the same.

I think it's ridiculous that they can get at the Leave

campaign but they've got no solution themselves, either.

Even I managed to draw a huge audience!

Adam is there. A unique event. About 4 million people tuned into that

debate last night. Andrea, what was it like making an argument in front

of the 6000 people in the hall, let alone the others? There was a huge

amount of noise. That clip did not pick it up. I watched it live full

and you could sense there was a lot of noise but it did not stop us

understanding you all up on the platform. I'm glad to hear that.

With a very serious debate about whether we choose to control our own

economy, our own democracy or outsource it to Europe. It is a

fundamental one. We have 24 hours to go. Most of the pundits seem to

think that Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, was

the standout performer. I was very pleased with our performance. I

thought we made the case extremely well. Others were disappointed that

Ruth challenged me personally, in fact called me a liar, on the

subject of the number of rules and regulations that come out of the EU.

The House of Commons records show that in 2013 it was 60% of rules and

regulations, which is what I said. Not laws. No, I said rules. Were you

surprised when she called you a liar? She is the same party as you?

It is a blue on blue attack. Were you mistaken or got that wrong? None

of that, it was, effectively, you were a liar. It is not what I would

have done. I do not call people life of the people make mistakes from

time to time. On this, you believe it was not that you were lying but

you got the facts right on the number of statutory instruments and

regulations relating to the EU. The biggest cheer of the night was for

Boris Johnson at the very end. Were you surprised by that? Just a

little. The standout performer was Ruth Davidson. Scotland played so

well at Wembley. It has been a long time. It was a long time to tell

some cold, hard truths to Boris Johnson. I hear what Andrea says

that there was an implication to what you said about the number of

laws coming from Europe. I know you said rules and regulations that you

would like people at home to believe it is the bureaucrats in Brussels

and not asked. In the past few years, just 13% of our actual laws

even mention that. That is what your everyday voter thinks we mean by

legislation. As city minister and now as Energy Minister, all day long

I am told that you cannot do this, you cannot do that because of the

EU. If you want to make this policy decision we have to go to the EU for

state aid clearance which could take up to a year. In the meantime you

cannot do anything. All day long I am being told the EU is influencing

our ability to make decisions. Look at VAT on fuel bills. I want to talk

about last night's bait. Remain put up Siddique Khan and the head of the

TUC. Was that a conscious intent to try to galvanise the Labour vote is

to map their worries the Labour vote might not come out in numbers to win

this. It is very important to have a message which resonates particularly

with Labour voters or indeed trade unionists, workers across the

country. I find Frances O'Grady quite powerful at the moment. She

was saying that when you say red tape, what you mean is workers'

rights? That keeps people safe at work. That is incredibly important.

She was also keen to bash the bankers and blame them for the crash

of 2008. There is a strong case you could do that. The problem is most

of the bankers back her side. Most of the Vote Leave campaign has said

it is the fault of immigrants. The point I'm trying to make is the

blame culture throughout the campaign, we have had lots of people

saying it is a result of immigration. What we heard last

night was the other side of that. The pressures on housing and schools

was caused by the banks. During the debate last night, there was one

intervention from the Remains side, from Alan Sugar. He tweeted and we

can put it up on the screen. He tweeted...

That is from Alan Sugar, a Remains supporter. What you think about

that? It is disgusting and I do not want to be associated with these

remarks. It is a bit of a surprise, isn't it? A surprise from Alan

Sugar. People on both sides would call it out from what it is. Many

have done just that. Alan Sugar is now part of the Government. He is

the enterprise are for the Government. What do you say about

that? Gisela Stuart is one of the most lovely women I have come

across. Last night I two sons were therefore that they were looking

after her. They are as English as they come. -- her two sons. What

about the fact about the Enterprise capital letters are? Those remarks

were disgusting and he should take them back. -- Tsar. Gisela has done

this country a huge... I am asking whether Alan Sugar should remain

Enterprise Tsar. My view is I would certainly be questioning it.

Which piece of EU memorabilia history has

A) The giant Euro coin, used at the launch

B) Margaret Thatcher's Europe jumper worn in the 1975 referendum?

C) The pen Douglas Hurd used to sign the Maastricht Treaty?

Or D) The first prototype of the EU Flag.

At the end of the show, Andrea and Kezia will give

So, it is the last full day of campaigning today with politicians

making a last-minute push to get their messages out. Experts are

predicting it could be extremely close. David Cameron and Boris

Johnson and other prominent Leave campaign is trying to drum up as

much support as they can. It is not just politicians who are out there.

Over a thousand business leaders, including 50 of the UK's FTSE 100,

have written a letter in today's Times saying that leaving

the European Union would damage the British economy.

The signatories, including Virgin's Richard Branson

and Sir Charles Dunstone of Carphone Warehouse,

say Britain leaving the EU would lead to uncertainty, less

However one of the UK's oldest firms, Tate Lyle Sugars,

has written to its 800-strong staff saying that leaving the EU

would benefit the business, while entrepreneur Sir James Dyson

has described the vote as "the last opportunity to regain

Meanwhile, an advisor to the Turkish President Recep

Erdogan has told the BBC that Turkey feels betrayed by David Cameron,

saying that the country feels "taken in" as the Prime Minister had been

Turkey's "chief supporter" in its quest for EU membership.

As Sadiq Khan last night became the latest member of the Remain

campaign to accuse Leave of scaremongering with the "big fat

lie" that Turkey would soon join the EU.

Joining me now are our political correspondents,

Tom is with David Cameron on the Stronger In campaign bus

and Ben is with Boris Johnson in Leicestershire.

To you first, Tom. What is the Prime Minister doing today? What is the

mood with your camp? Welcome. You join us on the convoy. We have quite

a few buses. The Stronger In us just ahead of us with the Prime Minister,

with Sir John Major and Labour's Harriet Harman and this is a

frenetic final push. We were just on a building site with the Prime

Minister and we've been herded back onto this media bus and we are off

to the next destination. I think the message the Prime Minister has been

getting across today and will push even harder is about the economy.

We've heard it throughout this campaign and it was no surprise that

what he is spending the whole today doing is visiting small businesses.

We've just been on a construction site. People are working at the new

Honda plant down this road. They hammer that message to the voters.

We've had good cop, bad cop. Sir John Major the unlikely sledgehammer

during his speech earlier on. He was laying into his opponents in the

Leave campaign, accusing them of being the grave-diggers of Britain's

prosperity and saying that if there was a vote to leave today, they

would have questions answered. Thanks for that. Let's go to bed

now, who is with the Vote Leave with Boris Johnson. What are they up to

today? Ashley della Zouch in Leicestershire is now quiet again

after the Boris Johnson Circus bowled down the high street here. He

was here for about half an hour, a pit stop on his tour of England. He

began at Billingsgate market in London, then stopped in Essex, then

here, and will end the day up in Yorkshire. His message is all about

democracy, sovereignty, independence, and it's a message

that has cut through to a lot of voters. As we were walking down here

a couple of people shouted "Independence Day" at him. He does

later the crowd and wing it, unlike many politicians would do and it is

a campaign tactic that I think is quite different to the Remain

campaign. They will just pitch up in a high street, get out of the bus

all the cars and talk to people. This feels like quite a Leave

Leeming plays. Their union flags everywhere and the voters I've been

speaking to, the majority are convinced Britain needs to be out of

the EU. But Boris Johnson was harangued, particularly by one young

man who said that if there is an economic downturn, if the prospect

of young people are harmed in the future, then Boris Johnson will get

the blame. On the whole, though, his reception here was a supporter

wanted top Ben, just briefly, and it is a matter of feeling and of

instinct, really, with the Vote Leave people, do they feel that they

are now struggling obituary game the momentum they had maybe a week ago?

Do they feel they are coming from behind? -- to read gain the

momentum. I think they feel this is winnable but undoubtedly the

momentum that was felt at the beginning of last week was stopped

and they are having to read it now. They think this could go either way,

they feel it is exceptionally tight, that it is about turnout. My hunch

having talked to people here is that there are still a lot of undecided

voters. I've been speaking to people in shops, walking around the

streets, who say they've been looking at these competing

arguments, listening to them for weeks, confused by some of them, not

sure which way to go, and it will be a hunch they have when they get into

the polling booth tomorrow that will determine what box they take and I

think it's that... There appears to be huge number of undecided voters,

still, that make both campaigns realise this is very unpredictable,

very tight, too close for either to call with any confidence. Thank you

very much for that. Andrea Leadsom, there are clearly business people

who are on your side of the argument and renamed some of them in our

introduction but it is only fair to say that the majority of major

businesses in this country are for a vote to remain, aren't they? Yes,

they are and, of course, what we're talking about here is the senior

chief executive officers of big businesses. And let's be clear that

when Stuart Rose, who chairs the Stronger In campaign, appeared

before the Treasury committee to make the case for remain in, he

said, "The trouble with leaving is that it will mean a pay rise for

British workers, wages will go up for British workers," and, of

course, the point is that people who run big FTSE 100 countries do not

have to face the struggle against wages going down and for a good

school plays, for a doctor's appointment. They don't have the

same challenges as the people in this campaign. But it is more than

just the FTSE 100. Mainly the FTSE 100 have operations overseas anyway

so they are not necessarily were presented over British business

here. But 1285 business leaders, a lot more than the FTSE 100, they

employ 1.75 million people, they are backing Remain. They are not all fat

cats. Small and medium enterprises make up 99% of the businesses in the

United Kingdom and there are many surveys that show that 75% of them

believe that the UK should take back responsibility for negotiating free

trade, something that the EU has been disastrously bad at, and a

majority of small businesses on a broad scope, not on CBI numbers or

Federation of Small Businesses numbers, but actually the small

businesses of this country, they believe we will be better off or not

worse off if we leave the European Union and they, the small and medium

enterprises, employ 60 million people in this country, so they are

the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators, the people creating jobs.

It is not clear that the majority of them want to leave. I agree that

there is a high percentage that want to stay but the British Chambers of

Commerce, there is no sign there was a majority. The Remain team focused

on the economy last night and one of the big arguments has been, what

would our trading relationship be with Europe if we were to come out

of the EU, on what terms and conditions? The Remain people have

said they may not be added to just was, compared to what we have now,

but we learned today that the head of the German CBI, the Federation of

German industries, the equivalent of the CBI, has told the BBC that

erecting any post Brexit trade barriers would be, quote, very, very

foolish, and that what the German industry would want is a trade

regime that allows current trade to continue as it is. That's a powerful

lobby in Germany, as you will note it talk To continue as it is means

that there is a set of conditions that comes with that, for example

the free movement of people, which is what Andrea is trying to stop in

many senses. The economic argument is absolutely unanswerable. It is

compelling for why we should remain part of the EU, which is why the

Leave campaign have spent the last week, and was then the next few

hours, trying to get the debate back on issues of immigration. I want to

stick with trade because this would suggest, and you will know the

German industry Federation is much more powerful with the Christian

Democrat government than the CBI is with this Tory government, and there

you have the most powerful voice saying he would like trade, even if

Britain leaves, to continue on broadly the same terms. So that

would suggest that a lot of what your side has been saying may not

actually be true, that there could be a big constituency in Germany

that would like us, even if we come out, to continue trading on the same

basis. That's a very powerful boys but it is yet again just one of the

27 other nations of Europe that would have a view on this particular

issue. -- very powerful voice. It is for the Leave campaign to prosecute

the case here, much as it was the case for the camera crew yes

campaign in the Scottish referendum to make the case for change and

there is so much risk associated with what Andrea is arguing. Wrist

jobs, the economy, to works' writes. It is just not worth it. Vote Leave

is distributing leaflets that state on Turkey that it is, quote, "Set to

join the EU". It is not set to join the EU, is it? Well, our

government's policy is for Turkish accession. We in this country will

be paying up to ?2 billion between now and 2020 to contribute to the

preparations that those five accession countries to be able to

accede to the EU. And the European Commission, just in recent weeks,

has been saying they are going to speed up the access and

preparations, so... But even so, it is not set to join tiptop so far it

has passed one of the 35 hurdles it has to past. I understand that it

is... And rouble come on to whether Mr Cameron has been entirely honest

with us on this matter. I personally understand it is British policy that

the Turkish or join but if I'm set to do something, I'm about to do it

and we know that even with British support for joining, Turkey is not

set to join. So what we know is that the European Union, the eurozone, is

looking to do a transaction with Turkey that an ex--- in exchange for

sending migrants back to Turkey, which I've no idea if that is even

going to be legal, that Turkish citizens could get free movement in

the Schengen area, which doesn't include the UK, but there are

discussions through our diplomatic channels about giving special

passport holders in Turkey, 1.5 million of them, free movement of

the UK. Hold on, there has been a proposal, a suggestion, from the

deputy head of nation in Ankara. Are you saying that person counts for

nothing? No, I'm not, I'm saying that person, and it is a chic, does

not determine British Government policy on this. It was an idea

floated by a diplomat. Roll but can we be clear? This referendum is not

for the couple of years, so what time frame would be reasonable? If

this referendum is for a generation, which is what we understand it to

be, it has been 43 years since we last had a referendum on this

subject. Are you saying it is not going to happen in 43 years? I

didn't say that to you. I put the proposition to you, it is not set to

join. That terminology is very important because as you've just

said, the first chapter is being dealt with. We British taxpayers...

The chapters were opened in 1987! They've only made one of 35. The EU

repeat commission is speeding up their accession plans. -- the

European Commission. Isn't it interesting how when the EU gets in

a problem, as it has with migration, anything can happen? If it suits the

eurozone to deal with their migration crisis by allowing faster

Turkish accession, that is what they will do. They've made that very

clear. There's a problem. Leave may well be wrong that Turkey is quote

set to join", in other words it could be imminent by 2020, even by

2025, but there's a problem for the Remain people here and it's to do

with trusting the political elite, because Mr Cameron has said one

thing to the Turkish people - in 2010, he pledged to fight for their

membership, he was going to be the bridge between Ankara and the EU.

We've even heard from a Turkish diplomat on Newsnight last night,

"We thought Mr Cameron was our chief supporter in our quest for EU

membership. We are really flabbergasted he is now talking

about the year 3000". This goes to the heart of trusting the people who

govern us, doesn't it? I think that is a fair point it I think there is

a much more fundamental question here, which is how we as the

political class talk immigration in the round. Stick to Turkey. Are

that's exacting what I'm doing. They're up potentially 1.2 million

people in Turkey on their way to our borders now, they say, and that is a

tremendous thing for us all to consider and worry about but we need

to take a step back and say, EU migrants coming back to the United

Kingdom make a vibrant contribution. I want you to stick with Turkey.

There has been a tendency throughout this campaign on both sides, you ask

a question and you generalise it to graduate Morkel to blunt. Is at the

Labour Party's position that Turkey should join the EU? We are of the

opinion that the EU should be expanding. There are five accession

countries. As you said, chapter one of 35... But are you in favour of

Turkey joining the EU? I'm a passionate, proud pro-European

person and I believe in unity across Europe. So you are in favour of

Turkey joining the EU? I don't fear greater EU migration in the way that

Andrea does. Why can't you discover simple yes or no? Do you support

Turkey's membership of the EU? Right now no because I don't believe they

would pass the human rights test. 35 chapters, many of the most difficult

ones are yet to be resolved. I don't think anyone can feasibly save the

case has been made at this time. You are a supporter? You would want to

help? I am a supporter of the EU... I have one final question for you

because you said that politicians should be honest about migration.

When Jeremy Corbyn told the BBC on Sunday morning that you could have

no upper limit on migration if you have free movement, which is what we

have in the EU, that was honest, wasn't it? Yes. There could be no

upper limit on migration? Yes, and we should be honest about the value

of EU migration to our country. No upper limit? I just want to clarify,

no upper limit. What Jeremy Corbyn said on Sunday I believe is right.

So even if it was 500,000 net, 600,000 net, instead of the current

300, there would be no upper limit? Leave there are conditions tied to

that in terms of the benefits people are entitled to. The principle of

it, as articulated by Jeremy Corbyn, I believe to be right it It is easy

for you to say that because almost no migrants go to Scotland. 20% of

those live in the city that I'm proud to represent it that's why I

am able to say to you... It is easy for you to say because hardly any

migrants go to Scotland. None of the 260,000 net that came to Britain in

2014, how many went to Scotland? I don't have that figure. 8000 out of

two or 60,000. Why do so migrants to Scotland?

Why do most of them go? I would argue possibly London where there is

a very positive attitude. I do not think it is about geography.

Now, could the weather swing the vote tomorrow?

Popular belief is that rain keeps voters away but what will conditions

be like when polls are open between 7am and 10pm tomorrow?

Will the sun be shining in Kezia Dugdale's Edinburgh

or Andrea Leadsom's South Northamptonshire?

With polls so close, here's the BBC's Stav Danaos

with the all-important weather forecast.

Much of the country will start off on a fine, dry, bright

note on Thursday morning but the south-east corner will start

off with thunderstorms and heavy showers, the risk of some local

flooding from these through the morning period.

But the good news is, they will move away.

Things will dry up across the south-east.

Actually quite a good-looking afternoon for many.

Showers across the north-west corner, but a return to some

showers and thunderstorms across the south-east corner as it

becomes very warm and humid through the afternoon,

with temperatures reaching 24, 25 Celsius.

A bit more detail for southern parts of Northamptonshire,

we'll see early showers clearing away, with some dry spells

More showers, potentially some thunderstorms,

could develop in towards the evening period.

Further north, for much of Scotland it will be dry with some sunshine.

Very pleasant conditions there in Edinburgh, with 19 or 20

Celsius and some good spells of sunshine through the day.

Maybe an evening shower will move in from the south-west.

So to recap for Thursday, it's going to be quite a warm day

generally, up and down the UK, temperatures

The highest temperatures across the south-east,

where we are likely to see more thunderstorms later on in the day.

And for those eagle-eyed political anoraks among you,

you'll realise that those were the constituency

locations of prominent Remain and Leave campaigners,

David Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn, George Osborne, Michael Gove

Now, Professor John Curtice joins us now from the studio of tomorrow

night's referendum programme at BBC Elstree.

Does the weather make a difference to turn out? Very rarely. There have

been occasions with past general elections where one part of the

country has received the usual British rain and another part have

had a glimmer of sunshine but no perceptible impact on the level of

turnout. Unless the thunderstorms are actually disruptive and make it

difficult for people to get to a polling station, it is unlikely to

make much difference. When we spoke on this show last week, you said

that Remained were no longer favourites to win. There was a

serious possibility that the country would vote leave. Has Tsar grabbed

back some of the ground? -- has Remain grabbed back some of the

ground? It has grabbed back some of the ground but not all. What we may

need to worry about now is so far there is not any clear evidence that

the swing back to Remain because of the perceptions of risk that many

people were assuming would begin to be evident in the polls conducted in

the last week the campaign, so far at least that wingback is not in

evidence. So, last week we had the internet polls having the Leeds side

ahead. -- the Leave side ahead. The telephone poles last week it felt to

50/ 50. Now it is 51/49 in favour of Remain. Not as much division as

there was. If you split the difference between them, it is 50/

50. What about the pollsters who are undecided? What is the significance

or lack of significance about those who are undecided? That includes

people who don't care. There will be a disproportionate number of people

who will not bother to vote. Beyond that, it looks as though they are

rather more likely to vote Remain. Maybe in the order of 3/ two. Quite

a few of the opinion polls are factoring in these folk into their

headline estimates. Some opinion polls, once the folk have been

factored in, the numbers who do not know is minimal. One final thing. I

have been asked a number of times, there will be no Exeter pole

tomorrow night when the BBC goes live on air. -- exit poll. That was

such a watershed moment in the general election last year, people

will not forget that, particularly Paddy Ashdown for Dubya still has

not eaten his hat. There will not be an exit poll. Why not? We must go

wherever possible to the same polling stations we went to five

years previously that we know from the previous exit poll how those

places have voted. We now know how they have voted this year. The

methodology of the exit poll is about trying to estimate the change

in party support across the country on the base of that information. We

go down that route because I might most countries who do not have

precinct level characters. It is difficult to be sure if any polling

stations are representative of the country. Now there is no last time.

At least it was over 40 years ago and therefore irrelevant. We could

not replicate the methodology which is we will look at the results this

time and look what happened last time and use that information. There

is only a this time of that that means you are dependent on getting

the right sample of polling stations and we could not be confident in

doing that. Thank you for explaining that. Good luck tomorrow night. I

hope you will still be awake when I come on out on Friday morning. We

should probably know all the results by then. Y.

Here's our Ellie with a guide to everything you need to know.

It's the moment we've all been waiting for.

The results will be counted by local authority areas.

There are 382 counting areas in total.

Unlike a general election, there is no exit poll.

That's because, put simply, it's virtually impossible

The formal result isn't likely to be announced until 7am at the earliest

but there are certain things to look out for overnight,

and who better to ask about what to expect than the people

who've been busy practising what to expect?

Jeremy, hello, fancy seeing you here.

Ellie, in our Virtual Downing Street, how about that?

Can you walk me through what is going to happen on the night?

Come to this end because the first results we think will be classically

Sunderland, Newcastle, so we're going to start to see them

coming in at the end he and we have blue for Leave and

They will be building a path down Downing Street.

2am we think Oxford, a very Remainy kind of a place,

so we'll see whether they come in for Remain.

And then by 3am, interestingly, the City of Durham,

Interesting to see which way the wind is blowing there.

And then the big cities, the big numbers, Birmingham,

By 6am, Liverpool, we think, and then a result.

There is a dotted line along the floor by Number Ten,

which we'll put down there, which will be crossing the line.

I'm going to leave you to it because it is blowing my mind!

Luckily there are plenty of grapevines on this programme

So, John, for those poor people who have to go to work on Friday,

up early or should they just stay up late and then hope

Well, I think probably the best advice is, if you're the kind

of person who is capable of going to bed at seven or eight

in the evening, go and do that, set your alarm for no later

than about two o'clock and then, as a result, almost undoubtedly,

you'll be there as the results begin to kick in.

Now, it may be true that if the result is very close,

you may still not find out the final result until shortly before you have

to go to work but if, on the other hand, it's pretty clear

who is going to win, probably by not long after three

o'clock, you'll be able to go back to bed and get

Besides, there's far too much calculating to be done.

If you look at the electorate, look at the actual turnout that's

reported, and you then see whether the numbers within that

turnout have got to a point where one side has a lead

that cannot be overtaken by the other, you understand?

Mind you, if it was a dead heat, you'd be waiting

I don't know what the odds are but of course it could happen.

The results programme will be on until 9am.

The only thing that is certain in this referendum -

Kezia Dugdale, there are 32 accounting areas in Scotland. Mark

our hard for us. What area should we look for in Scotland when results

come which will be a good result for you, which would suggest you will

win? Everyone assumes Edinburgh will be very strongly Remain. Bookies

have stopped taking books. They think that the city will have the

largest Remain in the United Kingdom. More interesting,

Aberdeenshire. There is larger farming. And fishing. They have been

quite hostile. The Scottish Fishing Federation has been quite neutral.

They do not like the regulation but they like the free trade. On the

Scottish referendum, I think the borders were the first area to

declare. We always knew they would vote for the union but they did so

in such huge numbers that we began to think, maybe something is

happening here tonight. What would you be looking for that would guide

you? I am not an expert in this area at all. I generally think this is

close. People who want us to leave the EU and take back control have a

greater passion for it. Do you think they're more likely to turn out?

That will be my hope. South Northamptonshire visual

constituency. There are 382 accounting authorities altogether

across the United Kingdom. They have been listed on how likely they are

to vote to leave or remain. Where is South Northamptonshire? It used to

be about 50/50 early on. My experience of public debates and so

one has been overwhelmingly voting to leave. Your experience would seem

to be right. John has put your area is 134th most likely to leave which

means you are in the top 50% to leave. The answer to Lothian is

pretty easy, isn't it? I would hope is a strong Remain. It is coming in

at 322 out of 382, the top 15% or so are people who will vote to remain

in. I will be in Glasgow on the night. An area where there are so

many migrants is voting to remain. We were talking about statistics.

20% of EU migrants in Scotland live in the Edinburgh area. That includes

students, of which there are a lot. Where will you be on the night? I

will be in South Northamptonshire with a megaphone tomorrow and then

coming back to London tomorrow night. And a soapbox.

Soon all the discussion and debate will be over and we'll know

It seems as if we've been talking about it forever but the official

campaign only started just over two months ago.

Can you remember what happened in those two months though -

here's our look at the highs and lows of the campaign.

Three years ago, I committed to the British people that

I would renegotiate our position in the European Union and hold

I'm calling on behalf of the Vote Leave campaign.

The European Union, many warts and all, has proved itself to be

This is this morning's Sun headline -

I think it is wrong that money that should be spent on priorities

like the NHS is being spent on euro propaganda.

A vote to leave the European Union could have material

The shock to our economy after leaving Europe would tip

When I heard that, I did think of Pinocchio and the nose

Our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc of the European Union

to get a trade agreement done and the UK is going to be

Well, we can listen to the President of America if we choose to.

The last time we did, it was George W Bush telling us

You cannot sell bananas in bunches of more than two or three bananas.

I think the strain of the campaign is beginning to tell on him.

The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended war cemeteries

stand silent testimony to the price that this country has paid to help

Migration Watch forecasts net migration will exceed 250,000

I think their campaign is verging on the squalid.

I am staggered that Boris Johnson is standing here tonight,

still defending this ?350 million a week...

The European Union just isn't working any more.

There's a long way to go but we're in with a shout.

Campaigning for the referendum has been suspended and there's been

a vigil for Jo Cox at Westminster tonight.

And you can't win, you can't fight, if you're not in the room.

This Thursday can be our country's Independence Day.

Your campaign hasn't been Project Fear, it's been Project Hate

There's nothing patriotic about putting people's jobs at risk.

From the SSE Arena Wembley, good night from all of us.

So there we go, that might bring back some memories of this

referendum campaign. When this campaign started there were many

people who said, "I'm not that interested, turnout will be low, why

are we bothering to have it? It's essentially blue on blue arguments,

the Tories are divided on this, so let's have a referendum, the way

Labour was divided in 75 and had a referendum". It's actually turned

out to be a robust campaign. Yes, and it has become more lively in the

closing days, without question. It definitely hasn't had that same

atmosphere that the referendum campaign did Buddha think we'll see

the same novels of turnout tomorrow. I think that will be quite

interesting but there are parallels between the two referendums with

interventions from the IMF to Obama to David Beckham. You can almost

predict what's going to happen. There have been similarities but the

turnout in the Scottish referendum was unique. 85%, yes, and a very

compelling result as a consequence of that. You felt really that the

people had spoken. I hope we do get a strong turnout tomorrow because I

don't want to go through this again, I don't think many people do. We've

got but this issue to bed and get back normal politics. When it

started, the turnout in the last general election was 60s and the

scent and I wondered whether the turnout tomorrow would be in the

early 60s but after this campaign, it may be higher. It may be more

than the turnout in the general election. This is an issue about who

governs you. It is absolutely profound. It has much more of an

impact on our children and grandchildren's future than the

general election. This is a generation and remaining is an

incredibly risky option so people do need to weigh this up and see what

works for them. You still get these little bit in! I ask for a little

bit of analysis but you get the push of their site. -- side.

We're joined now from College Green by the political editor

of the Guardian, Anushka Asthana, and James Kirkup

Anushka Asthana, give me your impressions. What is your main

takeaway from it? That it got a lot messier than anyone expected it to

become. I don't think when David Cameron signed up for this he

expected it to be quite as it was. There were some panicked moments,

particularly last week, for the Stronger In camp and for Downing

Street. I think they thought first of all, might they lose it? And

secondly, did he really expect to be on the opposite side to Michael Gove

and Boris Johnson in such a vocal way? I have to say, we saw the Prime

Minister yesterday and I felt there was more confidence in the room.

They clearly think that it is swinging their way. James, what a

Mishra says is right, isn't it, that when David Cameron started in this

process, he never thought on the eve of the campaign, it would be too

close to call,, that he didn't have a decent lead. You never thought

he'd be fighting it without Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. This has

been a much tougher ex-political exercise for him and he ever

thought. That's absolutely true. Even when it became clear that there

were an awful lot more Conservatives on the other side than he realised,

I think some of the reactions on both sides have surprised everybody

in the party. The outstanding moment for me so far was the Tory backbench

response to George Osborne's exit budget last week. To have 60 plus

Tory MPs publicly - this is the thing, publicly - saying, "We will

not let you do this, George". We all knew long before that a lot of

Tories don't like George Osborne and are quite unfriendly towards him but

to do that publicly is... It crosses a very big line. I don't think

anybody, even the most as a mystic Tory, expected to get to their in

this campaign. Anushka, if we vote to leave, clearly it is a sea

change, a watershed in British politics, British political life.

But would I be right in thinking that even if we vote to remain and

we vote to remain by perhaps just a little bit that, actually, there's a

new story starts on Friday morning that this isn't over yet? I think

that David Cameron and George Osborne, as James was saying, have

tied themselves very, very closely to this remain campaign and they

have gone in very hard. That punishment budget that he was

talking about has infuriated backbenchers. Other things, too, the

?9 million on the leaflet, one MP telling me he was incandescent about

that. In some ways, the most dangerous outcome for David Cameron

on a personal level could be a very narrow Remain victory because

there's going to be a lot of people who are very, very upset about his

tactics. The question will be, can enough of them come forward to try

to actually destabilise his leadership? I think it will be very

difficult for him to pull the party together. That said, some people say

the Conservatives come together very quickly when they need to, which I

think normal people probably find quite difficult because politicians

seem to be able to do this. If I'd had a massive row with my friend for

the past couple of weeks, I think I'd be a bit grumpy about it. I know

the feeling, I'm exactly the same! Finally to you, James, a proposition

to you for a quick reaction. Regardless of what the Prime

Minister is saying at the moment, if it is vote to leave, the primaries

and the Chancellor will be certainly gone by the summer. It -- if it is

vote to remain by the small amount, they don't go straightaway but they

are both still the walking wounded, are they not? He said before the

election last year that he wasn't going to serve beyond the end of

this Parliament and that means he cannot go on. The chances are he'll

be gone by 2018 regardless of how this works out. I think it's quite

likely, as Anushka said, if we get that narrow vote it is perfectly

possible, given the strength of feeling in the party, given the

number of Tories who Frankie will not be happy with a remain Bob wrote

because they will feel the campaign was conducted unfairly and almost

illegitimately, I think that will stoke up potentially such anger in

the Tory party that if by the end of this year, even, you see David

Cameron making a statement saying, "I'm now beginning the process of my

retirement," it will not be a great surprise. We may well see some

statement on the beginning of the end before the year is out. We shall

see to it will for now. Now. Hope to see you both on the morning after

the night before. So how does getting the vote out

differ from the more usual general Well, referenda are a more common

affair in the United States - a lot of states have bladder sites

and they determine all sorts of things.

We are joined now by the American referendum

Powers are different? Because in an election, you got the party machines

that get the vote out? How does that work in a referendum? Well, first of

all thank you for having me back on your show. The first thing to talk

about is, what is the strategy to get out the vote in the next 24

hours before the election, and the strategy right now in the referendum

campaign has to be, how are we going to get our supporters out to vote?

And the time for persuasion is over. It's now a logistical matter? It is

over. People are starting to make their mind up with every minute that

goes by as we get closer and closer. How do you get the vote out? There's

a couple of things. Understanding what the strategy is, first of all,

and then the next part is that one of the ways of getting the blood of

out, there are a number of areas that I'm sure that the Remain site

and the Leave side are spending a lot of their human resources and

money on. One has to be canvassing. You've got to get groups of people

together, volunteers, and literally go out and talk to your supporters

with a very soft sell. It has to be, here is the address of your polling

station - please go out and vote tomorrow. And maybe one message

about what you are trying to to give it on your position. You are not

going to meet tens of millions of people with that so again, I

suspect, and no, actually, that both the Remain and the Leave have their

phone banks cranking. They should absolutely be calling everybody that

is on their IDE list as already being supporters. To galvanise them

to come out? At this point, forget about the people who are headed on

the other direction or are even on the persuasion listed top your job

is one thing, get them out through canvassing and through phones. And

the final pieces, the technology that is out there is absolutely

wonderful. With the list that people have, Leave.EU and Vote Leave Bob,

and the Remain site, I suggest they have got hundreds of thousands of

people on their database, e-mailing, text in, social media. All of this

digital stuff should be driving people up and you have to make it

easy. If you take all that, can you tell us, do we know yet whether vote

leave or Remain have the better getting out the vote infrastructure?

One of the things that I've seen is, I look at how many people they have

on the database and things like that and if you look at Vote Leave and

Leave.EU, that's 750,000 people in that database. More than Remain?

That's a lot. I believe it is more than Remain have in their database.

As long as they're able to understand not to your time and your

money on people that aren't worth it... The last pieces visibility.

You've got to have signed. It's a psychological impact it Very well.

Thank you. There's just time before we go

to find out the answer to our quiz. Which piece of EU

memorabilia history A) The giant Euro coin,

used at the launch B) Margaret Thatcher's Europe jumper

worn in the 1975 referendum? C) The pen Douglas Hurd used to sign

the Maastricht Treaty? Or D) The first prototype

of the EU Flag? What was it? I suspect it might be

that jumper. I'm going to have to say the jumper. It is that jumper

and look what I have here. I have the jumper! Would you like to wear

one? It's glorious! I think it might suit you both. Here you go. Wood

July to put it on? It's going to clash badly but it's got nice Vote

Leave colours. Of course that was for Remain in its day. I guess it

could be any side now. It hasn't got all the flags. We can do the back.

The Daily Politics isn't on for the rest of the week but I'll

be covering the referendum results in a special BBC programme

on Friday, and there'll be a two-hour Sunday Politics

special this weekend, starting at the earlier

Catch all the action from Euro 2016 across the BBC.

Radio 5 Live or the BBC Sport website.

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