22/06/2016 Daily Politics


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The final live debate of the EU referendum campaign took place


at Wembley Arena last night in front of thousands of people.


We talk to Andrea Leadsom from Leave and Kezia Dugdale from Remain.


Politicians are making their final pitch for votes in the last


day of campaigning, emphasising their main arguments


And we have a full guide explaining everything you need to know to get


Going to bed at seven o'clock in the evening and maybe waking up


You even get sleeping advice on this programme. I don't know what more we


can do as a public service broadcaster.


And with us for the whole of the programme today


are the Leader of the Labour Party in Scotland, Kezia Dugdale,


in the EU and the Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom,


Now just last night, Andrea was on the stage at Wembley Arena


debating live in front of thousands of people.


You must have quite some stamina to be on the Daily


The BBC's Great Debate featured almost two hours of questions


on immigration, the economy and sovereignty and Andrea was one


Let's give you a flavour of what happened.


They came not for a Bon Jovi concert or Spice Girls reunion


but for the BBC's Great Debate, and they came from everywhere.


4 million switched on at home and there were thousands in the arena.


We've got a massive stage, which has got six lecterns on it.


It perked up as the credits rolled and straightaway it was blue on blue


as the Conservative panellists clashed on the economy.


Small businesses are the backbone of our economy and I know that some


people can find the EU a bit frustrating and fussy but what it


does, it provides a level playing field so that you can't be


undercut by other companies in other parts of the world.


That's why eight out of ten of the CBI's small-business members


Most economies can agree free trade deals within two years.


The European Union is taking ten years or never at all.


Because 28 member states cannot even organise a takeaway curry,


let alone what they are going to do on free trade with the rest


And it was mayor on ex-mayor over war and peace.


It's not a choice between the EU and Nato or the EU and allies.


We can still have a special relationship with the USA and be


And tell me this, anyone of you, which one of our allies -


USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia...


Which one of the Nato members is encouraging us to leave the EU?


The European Union is not keeping up with the deal.


It is creating unemployment in Greece, it is outsourcing


It is undermining Nato by trying to duplicate the same structures.


And there was a to-do about the number of immigrants


And I think the Leave campaign are selling people a big con,


You have never promised to reduce numbers.


Has the Leave campaign ever promised to reduce numbers?


What we said is you take back control and you can decide.


On the second debate stage, there was definitely passion.


I think it's a bit rich that the Remain side are so devoid


of any arguments that they have to smear us as racists and bigots,


I went to a business in my constituency last Friday


and they are a small business, they are exporting to Romania.


They have a contract to provide play equipment over there.


That contract is entirely contingent - there is a clause in that contract


that if we vote Out on Friday, they lose that contract.


That is the case for hundreds of businesses across the country.


As the clock counted down to the finale, Boris


Johnson got the last word and a standing ovation.


If we stand up for democracy, we will be speaking up for hundreds


of millions of people around Europe who agree with us but who


And if we vote Leave and take back control, I believe that this


Thursday could be our country's Independence Day.


In the spin room, Leavers reckoned


they won on passion, Remainers felt they'd caught


The Brexiter campaign was predicated on standing on top of a cliff.


They don't know how deep, how steep the cliff is,


how large the drop is going to be or how deep the water


But they're going to jump all the same.


I think it's ridiculous that they can get at the Leave


campaign but they've got no solution themselves, either.


Even I managed to draw a huge audience!


Adam is there. A unique event. About 4 million people tuned into that


debate last night. Andrea, what was it like making an argument in front


of the 6000 people in the hall, let alone the others? There was a huge


amount of noise. That clip did not pick it up. I watched it live full


and you could sense there was a lot of noise but it did not stop us


understanding you all up on the platform. I'm glad to hear that.


With a very serious debate about whether we choose to control our own


economy, our own democracy or outsource it to Europe. It is a


fundamental one. We have 24 hours to go. Most of the pundits seem to


think that Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, was


the standout performer. I was very pleased with our performance. I


thought we made the case extremely well. Others were disappointed that


Ruth challenged me personally, in fact called me a liar, on the


subject of the number of rules and regulations that come out of the EU.


The House of Commons records show that in 2013 it was 60% of rules and


regulations, which is what I said. Not laws. No, I said rules. Were you


surprised when she called you a liar? She is the same party as you?


It is a blue on blue attack. Were you mistaken or got that wrong? None


of that, it was, effectively, you were a liar. It is not what I would


have done. I do not call people life of the people make mistakes from


time to time. On this, you believe it was not that you were lying but


you got the facts right on the number of statutory instruments and


regulations relating to the EU. The biggest cheer of the night was for


Boris Johnson at the very end. Were you surprised by that? Just a


little. The standout performer was Ruth Davidson. Scotland played so


well at Wembley. It has been a long time. It was a long time to tell


some cold, hard truths to Boris Johnson. I hear what Andrea says


that there was an implication to what you said about the number of


laws coming from Europe. I know you said rules and regulations that you


would like people at home to believe it is the bureaucrats in Brussels


and not asked. In the past few years, just 13% of our actual laws


even mention that. That is what your everyday voter thinks we mean by


legislation. As city minister and now as Energy Minister, all day long


I am told that you cannot do this, you cannot do that because of the


EU. If you want to make this policy decision we have to go to the EU for


state aid clearance which could take up to a year. In the meantime you


cannot do anything. All day long I am being told the EU is influencing


our ability to make decisions. Look at VAT on fuel bills. I want to talk


about last night's bait. Remain put up Siddique Khan and the head of the


TUC. Was that a conscious intent to try to galvanise the Labour vote is


to map their worries the Labour vote might not come out in numbers to win


this. It is very important to have a message which resonates particularly


with Labour voters or indeed trade unionists, workers across the


country. I find Frances O'Grady quite powerful at the moment. She


was saying that when you say red tape, what you mean is workers'


rights? That keeps people safe at work. That is incredibly important.


She was also keen to bash the bankers and blame them for the crash


of 2008. There is a strong case you could do that. The problem is most


of the bankers back her side. Most of the Vote Leave campaign has said


it is the fault of immigrants. The point I'm trying to make is the


blame culture throughout the campaign, we have had lots of people


saying it is a result of immigration. What we heard last


night was the other side of that. The pressures on housing and schools


was caused by the banks. During the debate last night, there was one


intervention from the Remains side, from Alan Sugar. He tweeted and we


can put it up on the screen. He tweeted...


That is from Alan Sugar, a Remains supporter. What you think about


that? It is disgusting and I do not want to be associated with these


remarks. It is a bit of a surprise, isn't it? A surprise from Alan


Sugar. People on both sides would call it out from what it is. Many


have done just that. Alan Sugar is now part of the Government. He is


the enterprise are for the Government. What do you say about


that? Gisela Stuart is one of the most lovely women I have come


across. Last night I two sons were therefore that they were looking


after her. They are as English as they come. -- her two sons. What


about the fact about the Enterprise capital letters are? Those remarks


were disgusting and he should take them back. -- Tsar. Gisela has done


this country a huge... I am asking whether Alan Sugar should remain


Enterprise Tsar. My view is I would certainly be questioning it.


Which piece of EU memorabilia history has


A) The giant Euro coin, used at the launch


B) Margaret Thatcher's Europe jumper worn in the 1975 referendum?


C) The pen Douglas Hurd used to sign the Maastricht Treaty?


Or D) The first prototype of the EU Flag.


At the end of the show, Andrea and Kezia will give


So, it is the last full day of campaigning today with politicians


making a last-minute push to get their messages out. Experts are


predicting it could be extremely close. David Cameron and Boris


Johnson and other prominent Leave campaign is trying to drum up as


much support as they can. It is not just politicians who are out there.


Over a thousand business leaders, including 50 of the UK's FTSE 100,


have written a letter in today's Times saying that leaving


the European Union would damage the British economy.


The signatories, including Virgin's Richard Branson


and Sir Charles Dunstone of Carphone Warehouse,


say Britain leaving the EU would lead to uncertainty, less


However one of the UK's oldest firms, Tate Lyle Sugars,


has written to its 800-strong staff saying that leaving the EU


would benefit the business, while entrepreneur Sir James Dyson


has described the vote as "the last opportunity to regain


Meanwhile, an advisor to the Turkish President Recep


Erdogan has told the BBC that Turkey feels betrayed by David Cameron,


saying that the country feels "taken in" as the Prime Minister had been


Turkey's "chief supporter" in its quest for EU membership.


As Sadiq Khan last night became the latest member of the Remain


campaign to accuse Leave of scaremongering with the "big fat


lie" that Turkey would soon join the EU.


Joining me now are our political correspondents,


Tom is with David Cameron on the Stronger In campaign bus


and Ben is with Boris Johnson in Leicestershire.


To you first, Tom. What is the Prime Minister doing today? What is the


mood with your camp? Welcome. You join us on the convoy. We have quite


a few buses. The Stronger In us just ahead of us with the Prime Minister,


with Sir John Major and Labour's Harriet Harman and this is a


frenetic final push. We were just on a building site with the Prime


Minister and we've been herded back onto this media bus and we are off


to the next destination. I think the message the Prime Minister has been


getting across today and will push even harder is about the economy.


We've heard it throughout this campaign and it was no surprise that


what he is spending the whole today doing is visiting small businesses.


We've just been on a construction site. People are working at the new


Honda plant down this road. They hammer that message to the voters.


We've had good cop, bad cop. Sir John Major the unlikely sledgehammer


during his speech earlier on. He was laying into his opponents in the


Leave campaign, accusing them of being the grave-diggers of Britain's


prosperity and saying that if there was a vote to leave today, they


would have questions answered. Thanks for that. Let's go to bed


now, who is with the Vote Leave with Boris Johnson. What are they up to


today? Ashley della Zouch in Leicestershire is now quiet again


after the Boris Johnson Circus bowled down the high street here. He


was here for about half an hour, a pit stop on his tour of England. He


began at Billingsgate market in London, then stopped in Essex, then


here, and will end the day up in Yorkshire. His message is all about


democracy, sovereignty, independence, and it's a message


that has cut through to a lot of voters. As we were walking down here


a couple of people shouted "Independence Day" at him. He does


later the crowd and wing it, unlike many politicians would do and it is


a campaign tactic that I think is quite different to the Remain


campaign. They will just pitch up in a high street, get out of the bus


all the cars and talk to people. This feels like quite a Leave


Leeming plays. Their union flags everywhere and the voters I've been


speaking to, the majority are convinced Britain needs to be out of


the EU. But Boris Johnson was harangued, particularly by one young


man who said that if there is an economic downturn, if the prospect


of young people are harmed in the future, then Boris Johnson will get


the blame. On the whole, though, his reception here was a supporter


wanted top Ben, just briefly, and it is a matter of feeling and of


instinct, really, with the Vote Leave people, do they feel that they


are now struggling obituary game the momentum they had maybe a week ago?


Do they feel they are coming from behind? -- to read gain the


momentum. I think they feel this is winnable but undoubtedly the


momentum that was felt at the beginning of last week was stopped


and they are having to read it now. They think this could go either way,


they feel it is exceptionally tight, that it is about turnout. My hunch


having talked to people here is that there are still a lot of undecided


voters. I've been speaking to people in shops, walking around the


streets, who say they've been looking at these competing


arguments, listening to them for weeks, confused by some of them, not


sure which way to go, and it will be a hunch they have when they get into


the polling booth tomorrow that will determine what box they take and I


think it's that... There appears to be huge number of undecided voters,


still, that make both campaigns realise this is very unpredictable,


very tight, too close for either to call with any confidence. Thank you


very much for that. Andrea Leadsom, there are clearly business people


who are on your side of the argument and renamed some of them in our


introduction but it is only fair to say that the majority of major


businesses in this country are for a vote to remain, aren't they? Yes,


they are and, of course, what we're talking about here is the senior


chief executive officers of big businesses. And let's be clear that


when Stuart Rose, who chairs the Stronger In campaign, appeared


before the Treasury committee to make the case for remain in, he


said, "The trouble with leaving is that it will mean a pay rise for


British workers, wages will go up for British workers," and, of


course, the point is that people who run big FTSE 100 countries do not


have to face the struggle against wages going down and for a good


school plays, for a doctor's appointment. They don't have the


same challenges as the people in this campaign. But it is more than


just the FTSE 100. Mainly the FTSE 100 have operations overseas anyway


so they are not necessarily were presented over British business


here. But 1285 business leaders, a lot more than the FTSE 100, they


employ 1.75 million people, they are backing Remain. They are not all fat


cats. Small and medium enterprises make up 99% of the businesses in the


United Kingdom and there are many surveys that show that 75% of them


believe that the UK should take back responsibility for negotiating free


trade, something that the EU has been disastrously bad at, and a


majority of small businesses on a broad scope, not on CBI numbers or


Federation of Small Businesses numbers, but actually the small


businesses of this country, they believe we will be better off or not


worse off if we leave the European Union and they, the small and medium


enterprises, employ 60 million people in this country, so they are


the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators, the people creating jobs.


It is not clear that the majority of them want to leave. I agree that


there is a high percentage that want to stay but the British Chambers of


Commerce, there is no sign there was a majority. The Remain team focused


on the economy last night and one of the big arguments has been, what


would our trading relationship be with Europe if we were to come out


of the EU, on what terms and conditions? The Remain people have


said they may not be added to just was, compared to what we have now,


but we learned today that the head of the German CBI, the Federation of


German industries, the equivalent of the CBI, has told the BBC that


erecting any post Brexit trade barriers would be, quote, very, very


foolish, and that what the German industry would want is a trade


regime that allows current trade to continue as it is. That's a powerful


lobby in Germany, as you will note it talk To continue as it is means


that there is a set of conditions that comes with that, for example


the free movement of people, which is what Andrea is trying to stop in


many senses. The economic argument is absolutely unanswerable. It is


compelling for why we should remain part of the EU, which is why the


Leave campaign have spent the last week, and was then the next few


hours, trying to get the debate back on issues of immigration. I want to


stick with trade because this would suggest, and you will know the


German industry Federation is much more powerful with the Christian


Democrat government than the CBI is with this Tory government, and there


you have the most powerful voice saying he would like trade, even if


Britain leaves, to continue on broadly the same terms. So that


would suggest that a lot of what your side has been saying may not


actually be true, that there could be a big constituency in Germany


that would like us, even if we come out, to continue trading on the same


basis. That's a very powerful boys but it is yet again just one of the


27 other nations of Europe that would have a view on this particular


issue. -- very powerful voice. It is for the Leave campaign to prosecute


the case here, much as it was the case for the camera crew yes


campaign in the Scottish referendum to make the case for change and


there is so much risk associated with what Andrea is arguing. Wrist


jobs, the economy, to works' writes. It is just not worth it. Vote Leave


is distributing leaflets that state on Turkey that it is, quote, "Set to


join the EU". It is not set to join the EU, is it? Well, our


government's policy is for Turkish accession. We in this country will


be paying up to ?2 billion between now and 2020 to contribute to the


preparations that those five accession countries to be able to


accede to the EU. And the European Commission, just in recent weeks,


has been saying they are going to speed up the access and


preparations, so... But even so, it is not set to join tiptop so far it


has passed one of the 35 hurdles it has to past. I understand that it


is... And rouble come on to whether Mr Cameron has been entirely honest


with us on this matter. I personally understand it is British policy that


the Turkish or join but if I'm set to do something, I'm about to do it


and we know that even with British support for joining, Turkey is not


set to join. So what we know is that the European Union, the eurozone, is


looking to do a transaction with Turkey that an ex--- in exchange for


sending migrants back to Turkey, which I've no idea if that is even


going to be legal, that Turkish citizens could get free movement in


the Schengen area, which doesn't include the UK, but there are


discussions through our diplomatic channels about giving special


passport holders in Turkey, 1.5 million of them, free movement of


the UK. Hold on, there has been a proposal, a suggestion, from the


deputy head of nation in Ankara. Are you saying that person counts for


nothing? No, I'm not, I'm saying that person, and it is a chic, does


not determine British Government policy on this. It was an idea


floated by a diplomat. Roll but can we be clear? This referendum is not


for the couple of years, so what time frame would be reasonable? If


this referendum is for a generation, which is what we understand it to


be, it has been 43 years since we last had a referendum on this


subject. Are you saying it is not going to happen in 43 years? I


didn't say that to you. I put the proposition to you, it is not set to


join. That terminology is very important because as you've just


said, the first chapter is being dealt with. We British taxpayers...


The chapters were opened in 1987! They've only made one of 35. The EU


repeat commission is speeding up their accession plans. -- the


European Commission. Isn't it interesting how when the EU gets in


a problem, as it has with migration, anything can happen? If it suits the


eurozone to deal with their migration crisis by allowing faster


Turkish accession, that is what they will do. They've made that very


clear. There's a problem. Leave may well be wrong that Turkey is quote


set to join", in other words it could be imminent by 2020, even by


2025, but there's a problem for the Remain people here and it's to do


with trusting the political elite, because Mr Cameron has said one


thing to the Turkish people - in 2010, he pledged to fight for their


membership, he was going to be the bridge between Ankara and the EU.


We've even heard from a Turkish diplomat on Newsnight last night,


"We thought Mr Cameron was our chief supporter in our quest for EU


membership. We are really flabbergasted he is now talking


about the year 3000". This goes to the heart of trusting the people who


govern us, doesn't it? I think that is a fair point it I think there is


a much more fundamental question here, which is how we as the


political class talk immigration in the round. Stick to Turkey. Are


that's exacting what I'm doing. They're up potentially 1.2 million


people in Turkey on their way to our borders now, they say, and that is a


tremendous thing for us all to consider and worry about but we need


to take a step back and say, EU migrants coming back to the United


Kingdom make a vibrant contribution. I want you to stick with Turkey.


There has been a tendency throughout this campaign on both sides, you ask


a question and you generalise it to graduate Morkel to blunt. Is at the


Labour Party's position that Turkey should join the EU? We are of the


opinion that the EU should be expanding. There are five accession


countries. As you said, chapter one of 35... But are you in favour of


Turkey joining the EU? I'm a passionate, proud pro-European


person and I believe in unity across Europe. So you are in favour of


Turkey joining the EU? I don't fear greater EU migration in the way that


Andrea does. Why can't you discover simple yes or no? Do you support


Turkey's membership of the EU? Right now no because I don't believe they


would pass the human rights test. 35 chapters, many of the most difficult


ones are yet to be resolved. I don't think anyone can feasibly save the


case has been made at this time. You are a supporter? You would want to


help? I am a supporter of the EU... I have one final question for you


because you said that politicians should be honest about migration.


When Jeremy Corbyn told the BBC on Sunday morning that you could have


no upper limit on migration if you have free movement, which is what we


have in the EU, that was honest, wasn't it? Yes. There could be no


upper limit on migration? Yes, and we should be honest about the value


of EU migration to our country. No upper limit? I just want to clarify,


no upper limit. What Jeremy Corbyn said on Sunday I believe is right.


So even if it was 500,000 net, 600,000 net, instead of the current


300, there would be no upper limit? Leave there are conditions tied to


that in terms of the benefits people are entitled to. The principle of


it, as articulated by Jeremy Corbyn, I believe to be right it It is easy


for you to say that because almost no migrants go to Scotland. 20% of


those live in the city that I'm proud to represent it that's why I


am able to say to you... It is easy for you to say because hardly any


migrants go to Scotland. None of the 260,000 net that came to Britain in


2014, how many went to Scotland? I don't have that figure. 8000 out of


two or 60,000. Why do so migrants to Scotland?


Why do most of them go? I would argue possibly London where there is


a very positive attitude. I do not think it is about geography.


Now, could the weather swing the vote tomorrow?


Popular belief is that rain keeps voters away but what will conditions


be like when polls are open between 7am and 10pm tomorrow?


Will the sun be shining in Kezia Dugdale's Edinburgh


or Andrea Leadsom's South Northamptonshire?


With polls so close, here's the BBC's Stav Danaos


with the all-important weather forecast.


Much of the country will start off on a fine, dry, bright


note on Thursday morning but the south-east corner will start


off with thunderstorms and heavy showers, the risk of some local


flooding from these through the morning period.


But the good news is, they will move away.


Things will dry up across the south-east.


Actually quite a good-looking afternoon for many.


Showers across the north-west corner, but a return to some


showers and thunderstorms across the south-east corner as it


becomes very warm and humid through the afternoon,


with temperatures reaching 24, 25 Celsius.


A bit more detail for southern parts of Northamptonshire,


we'll see early showers clearing away, with some dry spells


More showers, potentially some thunderstorms,


could develop in towards the evening period.


Further north, for much of Scotland it will be dry with some sunshine.


Very pleasant conditions there in Edinburgh, with 19 or 20


Celsius and some good spells of sunshine through the day.


Maybe an evening shower will move in from the south-west.


So to recap for Thursday, it's going to be quite a warm day


generally, up and down the UK, temperatures


The highest temperatures across the south-east,


where we are likely to see more thunderstorms later on in the day.


And for those eagle-eyed political anoraks among you,


you'll realise that those were the constituency


locations of prominent Remain and Leave campaigners,


David Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn, George Osborne, Michael Gove


Now, Professor John Curtice joins us now from the studio of tomorrow


night's referendum programme at BBC Elstree.


Does the weather make a difference to turn out? Very rarely. There have


been occasions with past general elections where one part of the


country has received the usual British rain and another part have


had a glimmer of sunshine but no perceptible impact on the level of


turnout. Unless the thunderstorms are actually disruptive and make it


difficult for people to get to a polling station, it is unlikely to


make much difference. When we spoke on this show last week, you said


that Remained were no longer favourites to win. There was a


serious possibility that the country would vote leave. Has Tsar grabbed


back some of the ground? -- has Remain grabbed back some of the


ground? It has grabbed back some of the ground but not all. What we may


need to worry about now is so far there is not any clear evidence that


the swing back to Remain because of the perceptions of risk that many


people were assuming would begin to be evident in the polls conducted in


the last week the campaign, so far at least that wingback is not in


evidence. So, last week we had the internet polls having the Leeds side


ahead. -- the Leave side ahead. The telephone poles last week it felt to


50/ 50. Now it is 51/49 in favour of Remain. Not as much division as


there was. If you split the difference between them, it is 50/


50. What about the pollsters who are undecided? What is the significance


or lack of significance about those who are undecided? That includes


people who don't care. There will be a disproportionate number of people


who will not bother to vote. Beyond that, it looks as though they are


rather more likely to vote Remain. Maybe in the order of 3/ two. Quite


a few of the opinion polls are factoring in these folk into their


headline estimates. Some opinion polls, once the folk have been


factored in, the numbers who do not know is minimal. One final thing. I


have been asked a number of times, there will be no Exeter pole


tomorrow night when the BBC goes live on air. -- exit poll. That was


such a watershed moment in the general election last year, people


will not forget that, particularly Paddy Ashdown for Dubya still has


not eaten his hat. There will not be an exit poll. Why not? We must go


wherever possible to the same polling stations we went to five


years previously that we know from the previous exit poll how those


places have voted. We now know how they have voted this year. The


methodology of the exit poll is about trying to estimate the change


in party support across the country on the base of that information. We


go down that route because I might most countries who do not have


precinct level characters. It is difficult to be sure if any polling


stations are representative of the country. Now there is no last time.


At least it was over 40 years ago and therefore irrelevant. We could


not replicate the methodology which is we will look at the results this


time and look what happened last time and use that information. There


is only a this time of that that means you are dependent on getting


the right sample of polling stations and we could not be confident in


doing that. Thank you for explaining that. Good luck tomorrow night. I


hope you will still be awake when I come on out on Friday morning. We


should probably know all the results by then. Y.


Here's our Ellie with a guide to everything you need to know.


It's the moment we've all been waiting for.


The results will be counted by local authority areas.


There are 382 counting areas in total.


Unlike a general election, there is no exit poll.


That's because, put simply, it's virtually impossible


The formal result isn't likely to be announced until 7am at the earliest


but there are certain things to look out for overnight,


and who better to ask about what to expect than the people


who've been busy practising what to expect?


Jeremy, hello, fancy seeing you here.


Ellie, in our Virtual Downing Street, how about that?


Can you walk me through what is going to happen on the night?


Come to this end because the first results we think will be classically


Sunderland, Newcastle, so we're going to start to see them


coming in at the end he and we have blue for Leave and


They will be building a path down Downing Street.


2am we think Oxford, a very Remainy kind of a place,


so we'll see whether they come in for Remain.


And then by 3am, interestingly, the City of Durham,


Interesting to see which way the wind is blowing there.


And then the big cities, the big numbers, Birmingham,


By 6am, Liverpool, we think, and then a result.


There is a dotted line along the floor by Number Ten,


which we'll put down there, which will be crossing the line.


I'm going to leave you to it because it is blowing my mind!


Luckily there are plenty of grapevines on this programme


So, John, for those poor people who have to go to work on Friday,


up early or should they just stay up late and then hope


Well, I think probably the best advice is, if you're the kind


of person who is capable of going to bed at seven or eight


in the evening, go and do that, set your alarm for no later


than about two o'clock and then, as a result, almost undoubtedly,


you'll be there as the results begin to kick in.


Now, it may be true that if the result is very close,


you may still not find out the final result until shortly before you have


to go to work but if, on the other hand, it's pretty clear


who is going to win, probably by not long after three


o'clock, you'll be able to go back to bed and get


Besides, there's far too much calculating to be done.


If you look at the electorate, look at the actual turnout that's


reported, and you then see whether the numbers within that


turnout have got to a point where one side has a lead


that cannot be overtaken by the other, you understand?


Mind you, if it was a dead heat, you'd be waiting


I don't know what the odds are but of course it could happen.


The results programme will be on until 9am.


The only thing that is certain in this referendum -


Kezia Dugdale, there are 32 accounting areas in Scotland. Mark


our hard for us. What area should we look for in Scotland when results


come which will be a good result for you, which would suggest you will


win? Everyone assumes Edinburgh will be very strongly Remain. Bookies


have stopped taking books. They think that the city will have the


largest Remain in the United Kingdom. More interesting,


Aberdeenshire. There is larger farming. And fishing. They have been


quite hostile. The Scottish Fishing Federation has been quite neutral.


They do not like the regulation but they like the free trade. On the


Scottish referendum, I think the borders were the first area to


declare. We always knew they would vote for the union but they did so


in such huge numbers that we began to think, maybe something is


happening here tonight. What would you be looking for that would guide


you? I am not an expert in this area at all. I generally think this is


close. People who want us to leave the EU and take back control have a


greater passion for it. Do you think they're more likely to turn out?


That will be my hope. South Northamptonshire visual


constituency. There are 382 accounting authorities altogether


across the United Kingdom. They have been listed on how likely they are


to vote to leave or remain. Where is South Northamptonshire? It used to


be about 50/50 early on. My experience of public debates and so


one has been overwhelmingly voting to leave. Your experience would seem


to be right. John has put your area is 134th most likely to leave which


means you are in the top 50% to leave. The answer to Lothian is


pretty easy, isn't it? I would hope is a strong Remain. It is coming in


at 322 out of 382, the top 15% or so are people who will vote to remain


in. I will be in Glasgow on the night. An area where there are so


many migrants is voting to remain. We were talking about statistics.


20% of EU migrants in Scotland live in the Edinburgh area. That includes


students, of which there are a lot. Where will you be on the night? I


will be in South Northamptonshire with a megaphone tomorrow and then


coming back to London tomorrow night. And a soapbox.


Soon all the discussion and debate will be over and we'll know


It seems as if we've been talking about it forever but the official


campaign only started just over two months ago.


Can you remember what happened in those two months though -


here's our look at the highs and lows of the campaign.


Three years ago, I committed to the British people that


I would renegotiate our position in the European Union and hold


I'm calling on behalf of the Vote Leave campaign.


The European Union, many warts and all, has proved itself to be


This is this morning's Sun headline -


I think it is wrong that money that should be spent on priorities


like the NHS is being spent on euro propaganda.


A vote to leave the European Union could have material


The shock to our economy after leaving Europe would tip


When I heard that, I did think of Pinocchio and the nose


Our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc of the European Union


to get a trade agreement done and the UK is going to be


Well, we can listen to the President of America if we choose to.


The last time we did, it was George W Bush telling us


You cannot sell bananas in bunches of more than two or three bananas.


I think the strain of the campaign is beginning to tell on him.


The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended war cemeteries


stand silent testimony to the price that this country has paid to help


Migration Watch forecasts net migration will exceed 250,000


I think their campaign is verging on the squalid.


I am staggered that Boris Johnson is standing here tonight,


still defending this ?350 million a week...


The European Union just isn't working any more.


There's a long way to go but we're in with a shout.


Campaigning for the referendum has been suspended and there's been


a vigil for Jo Cox at Westminster tonight.


And you can't win, you can't fight, if you're not in the room.


This Thursday can be our country's Independence Day.


Your campaign hasn't been Project Fear, it's been Project Hate


There's nothing patriotic about putting people's jobs at risk.


From the SSE Arena Wembley, good night from all of us.


So there we go, that might bring back some memories of this


referendum campaign. When this campaign started there were many


people who said, "I'm not that interested, turnout will be low, why


are we bothering to have it? It's essentially blue on blue arguments,


the Tories are divided on this, so let's have a referendum, the way


Labour was divided in 75 and had a referendum". It's actually turned


out to be a robust campaign. Yes, and it has become more lively in the


closing days, without question. It definitely hasn't had that same


atmosphere that the referendum campaign did Buddha think we'll see


the same novels of turnout tomorrow. I think that will be quite


interesting but there are parallels between the two referendums with


interventions from the IMF to Obama to David Beckham. You can almost


predict what's going to happen. There have been similarities but the


turnout in the Scottish referendum was unique. 85%, yes, and a very


compelling result as a consequence of that. You felt really that the


people had spoken. I hope we do get a strong turnout tomorrow because I


don't want to go through this again, I don't think many people do. We've


got but this issue to bed and get back normal politics. When it


started, the turnout in the last general election was 60s and the


scent and I wondered whether the turnout tomorrow would be in the


early 60s but after this campaign, it may be higher. It may be more


than the turnout in the general election. This is an issue about who


governs you. It is absolutely profound. It has much more of an


impact on our children and grandchildren's future than the


general election. This is a generation and remaining is an


incredibly risky option so people do need to weigh this up and see what


works for them. You still get these little bit in! I ask for a little


bit of analysis but you get the push of their site. -- side.


We're joined now from College Green by the political editor


of the Guardian, Anushka Asthana, and James Kirkup


Anushka Asthana, give me your impressions. What is your main


takeaway from it? That it got a lot messier than anyone expected it to


become. I don't think when David Cameron signed up for this he


expected it to be quite as it was. There were some panicked moments,


particularly last week, for the Stronger In camp and for Downing


Street. I think they thought first of all, might they lose it? And


secondly, did he really expect to be on the opposite side to Michael Gove


and Boris Johnson in such a vocal way? I have to say, we saw the Prime


Minister yesterday and I felt there was more confidence in the room.


They clearly think that it is swinging their way. James, what a


Mishra says is right, isn't it, that when David Cameron started in this


process, he never thought on the eve of the campaign, it would be too


close to call,, that he didn't have a decent lead. You never thought


he'd be fighting it without Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. This has


been a much tougher ex-political exercise for him and he ever


thought. That's absolutely true. Even when it became clear that there


were an awful lot more Conservatives on the other side than he realised,


I think some of the reactions on both sides have surprised everybody


in the party. The outstanding moment for me so far was the Tory backbench


response to George Osborne's exit budget last week. To have 60 plus


Tory MPs publicly - this is the thing, publicly - saying, "We will


not let you do this, George". We all knew long before that a lot of


Tories don't like George Osborne and are quite unfriendly towards him but


to do that publicly is... It crosses a very big line. I don't think


anybody, even the most as a mystic Tory, expected to get to their in


this campaign. Anushka, if we vote to leave, clearly it is a sea


change, a watershed in British politics, British political life.


But would I be right in thinking that even if we vote to remain and


we vote to remain by perhaps just a little bit that, actually, there's a


new story starts on Friday morning that this isn't over yet? I think


that David Cameron and George Osborne, as James was saying, have


tied themselves very, very closely to this remain campaign and they


have gone in very hard. That punishment budget that he was


talking about has infuriated backbenchers. Other things, too, the


?9 million on the leaflet, one MP telling me he was incandescent about


that. In some ways, the most dangerous outcome for David Cameron


on a personal level could be a very narrow Remain victory because


there's going to be a lot of people who are very, very upset about his


tactics. The question will be, can enough of them come forward to try


to actually destabilise his leadership? I think it will be very


difficult for him to pull the party together. That said, some people say


the Conservatives come together very quickly when they need to, which I


think normal people probably find quite difficult because politicians


seem to be able to do this. If I'd had a massive row with my friend for


the past couple of weeks, I think I'd be a bit grumpy about it. I know


the feeling, I'm exactly the same! Finally to you, James, a proposition


to you for a quick reaction. Regardless of what the Prime


Minister is saying at the moment, if it is vote to leave, the primaries


and the Chancellor will be certainly gone by the summer. It -- if it is


vote to remain by the small amount, they don't go straightaway but they


are both still the walking wounded, are they not? He said before the


election last year that he wasn't going to serve beyond the end of


this Parliament and that means he cannot go on. The chances are he'll


be gone by 2018 regardless of how this works out. I think it's quite


likely, as Anushka said, if we get that narrow vote it is perfectly


possible, given the strength of feeling in the party, given the


number of Tories who Frankie will not be happy with a remain Bob wrote


because they will feel the campaign was conducted unfairly and almost


illegitimately, I think that will stoke up potentially such anger in


the Tory party that if by the end of this year, even, you see David


Cameron making a statement saying, "I'm now beginning the process of my


retirement," it will not be a great surprise. We may well see some


statement on the beginning of the end before the year is out. We shall


see to it will for now. Now. Hope to see you both on the morning after


the night before. So how does getting the vote out


differ from the more usual general Well, referenda are a more common


affair in the United States - a lot of states have bladder sites


and they determine all sorts of things.


We are joined now by the American referendum


Powers are different? Because in an election, you got the party machines


that get the vote out? How does that work in a referendum? Well, first of


all thank you for having me back on your show. The first thing to talk


about is, what is the strategy to get out the vote in the next 24


hours before the election, and the strategy right now in the referendum


campaign has to be, how are we going to get our supporters out to vote?


And the time for persuasion is over. It's now a logistical matter? It is


over. People are starting to make their mind up with every minute that


goes by as we get closer and closer. How do you get the vote out? There's


a couple of things. Understanding what the strategy is, first of all,


and then the next part is that one of the ways of getting the blood of


out, there are a number of areas that I'm sure that the Remain site


and the Leave side are spending a lot of their human resources and


money on. One has to be canvassing. You've got to get groups of people


together, volunteers, and literally go out and talk to your supporters


with a very soft sell. It has to be, here is the address of your polling


station - please go out and vote tomorrow. And maybe one message


about what you are trying to to give it on your position. You are not


going to meet tens of millions of people with that so again, I


suspect, and no, actually, that both the Remain and the Leave have their


phone banks cranking. They should absolutely be calling everybody that


is on their IDE list as already being supporters. To galvanise them


to come out? At this point, forget about the people who are headed on


the other direction or are even on the persuasion listed top your job


is one thing, get them out through canvassing and through phones. And


the final pieces, the technology that is out there is absolutely


wonderful. With the list that people have, Leave.EU and Vote Leave Bob,


and the Remain site, I suggest they have got hundreds of thousands of


people on their database, e-mailing, text in, social media. All of this


digital stuff should be driving people up and you have to make it


easy. If you take all that, can you tell us, do we know yet whether vote


leave or Remain have the better getting out the vote infrastructure?


One of the things that I've seen is, I look at how many people they have


on the database and things like that and if you look at Vote Leave and


Leave.EU, that's 750,000 people in that database. More than Remain?


That's a lot. I believe it is more than Remain have in their database.


As long as they're able to understand not to your time and your


money on people that aren't worth it... The last pieces visibility.


You've got to have signed. It's a psychological impact it Very well.


Thank you. There's just time before we go


to find out the answer to our quiz. Which piece of EU


memorabilia history A) The giant Euro coin,


used at the launch B) Margaret Thatcher's Europe jumper


worn in the 1975 referendum? C) The pen Douglas Hurd used to sign


the Maastricht Treaty? Or D) The first prototype


of the EU Flag? What was it? I suspect it might be


that jumper. I'm going to have to say the jumper. It is that jumper


and look what I have here. I have the jumper! Would you like to wear


one? It's glorious! I think it might suit you both. Here you go. Wood


July to put it on? It's going to clash badly but it's got nice Vote


Leave colours. Of course that was for Remain in its day. I guess it


could be any side now. It hasn't got all the flags. We can do the back.


The Daily Politics isn't on for the rest of the week but I'll


be covering the referendum results in a special BBC programme


on Friday, and there'll be a two-hour Sunday Politics


special this weekend, starting at the earlier


Catch all the action from Euro 2016 across the BBC.


Radio 5 Live or the BBC Sport website.


You can also follow all the news and action from the Euros,


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