Andrew Neil is joined by energy minister Andrea Leadsom and Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale to discuss the impending EU referendum.
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The final live debate of the EU referendum campaign took place
at Wembley Arena last night in front of thousands of people.
We talk to Andrea Leadsom from Leave and Kezia Dugdale from Remain.
Politicians are making their final pitch for votes in the last
day of campaigning, emphasising their main arguments
And we have a full guide explaining everything you need to know to get
Going to bed at seven o'clock in the evening and maybe waking up
You even get sleeping advice on this programme. I don't know what more we
can do as a public service broadcaster.
And with us for the whole of the programme today
are the Leader of the Labour Party in Scotland, Kezia Dugdale,
in the EU and the Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom,
Now just last night, Andrea was on the stage at Wembley Arena
debating live in front of thousands of people.
You must have quite some stamina to be on the Daily
The BBC's Great Debate featured almost two hours of questions
on immigration, the economy and sovereignty and Andrea was one
Let's give you a flavour of what happened.
They came not for a Bon Jovi concert or Spice Girls reunion
but for the BBC's Great Debate, and they came from everywhere.
4 million switched on at home and there were thousands in the arena.
We've got a massive stage, which has got six lecterns on it.
It perked up as the credits rolled and straightaway it was blue on blue
as the Conservative panellists clashed on the economy.
Small businesses are the backbone of our economy and I know that some
people can find the EU a bit frustrating and fussy but what it
does, it provides a level playing field so that you can't be
undercut by other companies in other parts of the world.
That's why eight out of ten of the CBI's small-business members
Most economies can agree free trade deals within two years.
The European Union is taking ten years or never at all.
Because 28 member states cannot even organise a takeaway curry,
let alone what they are going to do on free trade with the rest
And it was mayor on ex-mayor over war and peace.
It's not a choice between the EU and Nato or the EU and allies.
We can still have a special relationship with the USA and be
And tell me this, anyone of you, which one of our allies -
USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia...
Which one of the Nato members is encouraging us to leave the EU?
The European Union is not keeping up with the deal.
It is creating unemployment in Greece, it is outsourcing
It is undermining Nato by trying to duplicate the same structures.
And there was a to-do about the number of immigrants
And I think the Leave campaign are selling people a big con,
You have never promised to reduce numbers.
Has the Leave campaign ever promised to reduce numbers?
What we said is you take back control and you can decide.
On the second debate stage, there was definitely passion.
I think it's a bit rich that the Remain side are so devoid
of any arguments that they have to smear us as racists and bigots,
I went to a business in my constituency last Friday
and they are a small business, they are exporting to Romania.
They have a contract to provide play equipment over there.
That contract is entirely contingent - there is a clause in that contract
that if we vote Out on Friday, they lose that contract.
That is the case for hundreds of businesses across the country.
As the clock counted down to the finale, Boris
Johnson got the last word and a standing ovation.
If we stand up for democracy, we will be speaking up for hundreds
of millions of people around Europe who agree with us but who
And if we vote Leave and take back control, I believe that this
Thursday could be our country's Independence Day.
In the spin room, Leavers reckoned
they won on passion, Remainers felt they'd caught
The Brexiter campaign was predicated on standing on top of a cliff.
They don't know how deep, how steep the cliff is,
how large the drop is going to be or how deep the water
But they're going to jump all the same.
I think it's ridiculous that they can get at the Leave
campaign but they've got no solution themselves, either.
Even I managed to draw a huge audience!
Adam is there. A unique event. About 4 million people tuned into that
debate last night. Andrea, what was it like making an argument in front
of the 6000 people in the hall, let alone the others? There was a huge
amount of noise. That clip did not pick it up. I watched it live full
and you could sense there was a lot of noise but it did not stop us
understanding you all up on the platform. I'm glad to hear that.
With a very serious debate about whether we choose to control our own
economy, our own democracy or outsource it to Europe. It is a
fundamental one. We have 24 hours to go. Most of the pundits seem to
think that Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, was
the standout performer. I was very pleased with our performance. I
thought we made the case extremely well. Others were disappointed that
Ruth challenged me personally, in fact called me a liar, on the
subject of the number of rules and regulations that come out of the EU.
The House of Commons records show that in 2013 it was 60% of rules and
regulations, which is what I said. Not laws. No, I said rules. Were you
surprised when she called you a liar? She is the same party as you?
It is a blue on blue attack. Were you mistaken or got that wrong? None
of that, it was, effectively, you were a liar. It is not what I would
have done. I do not call people life of the people make mistakes from
time to time. On this, you believe it was not that you were lying but
you got the facts right on the number of statutory instruments and
regulations relating to the EU. The biggest cheer of the night was for
Boris Johnson at the very end. Were you surprised by that? Just a
little. The standout performer was Ruth Davidson. Scotland played so
well at Wembley. It has been a long time. It was a long time to tell
some cold, hard truths to Boris Johnson. I hear what Andrea says
that there was an implication to what you said about the number of
laws coming from Europe. I know you said rules and regulations that you
would like people at home to believe it is the bureaucrats in Brussels
and not asked. In the past few years, just 13% of our actual laws
even mention that. That is what your everyday voter thinks we mean by
legislation. As city minister and now as Energy Minister, all day long
I am told that you cannot do this, you cannot do that because of the
EU. If you want to make this policy decision we have to go to the EU for
state aid clearance which could take up to a year. In the meantime you
cannot do anything. All day long I am being told the EU is influencing
our ability to make decisions. Look at VAT on fuel bills. I want to talk
about last night's bait. Remain put up Siddique Khan and the head of the
TUC. Was that a conscious intent to try to galvanise the Labour vote is
to map their worries the Labour vote might not come out in numbers to win
this. It is very important to have a message which resonates particularly
with Labour voters or indeed trade unionists, workers across the
country. I find Frances O'Grady quite powerful at the moment. She
was saying that when you say red tape, what you mean is workers'
rights? That keeps people safe at work. That is incredibly important.
She was also keen to bash the bankers and blame them for the crash
of 2008. There is a strong case you could do that. The problem is most
of the bankers back her side. Most of the Vote Leave campaign has said
it is the fault of immigrants. The point I'm trying to make is the
blame culture throughout the campaign, we have had lots of people
saying it is a result of immigration. What we heard last
night was the other side of that. The pressures on housing and schools
was caused by the banks. During the debate last night, there was one
intervention from the Remains side, from Alan Sugar. He tweeted and we
can put it up on the screen. He tweeted...
That is from Alan Sugar, a Remains supporter. What you think about
that? It is disgusting and I do not want to be associated with these
remarks. It is a bit of a surprise, isn't it? A surprise from Alan
Sugar. People on both sides would call it out from what it is. Many
have done just that. Alan Sugar is now part of the Government. He is
the enterprise are for the Government. What do you say about
that? Gisela Stuart is one of the most lovely women I have come
across. Last night I two sons were therefore that they were looking
after her. They are as English as they come. -- her two sons. What
about the fact about the Enterprise capital letters are? Those remarks
were disgusting and he should take them back. -- Tsar. Gisela has done
this country a huge... I am asking whether Alan Sugar should remain
Enterprise Tsar. My view is I would certainly be questioning it.
Which piece of EU memorabilia history has
A) The giant Euro coin, used at the launch
B) Margaret Thatcher's Europe jumper worn in the 1975 referendum?
C) The pen Douglas Hurd used to sign the Maastricht Treaty?
Or D) The first prototype of the EU Flag.
At the end of the show, Andrea and Kezia will give
So, it is the last full day of campaigning today with politicians
making a last-minute push to get their messages out. Experts are
predicting it could be extremely close. David Cameron and Boris
Johnson and other prominent Leave campaign is trying to drum up as
much support as they can. It is not just politicians who are out there.
Over a thousand business leaders, including 50 of the UK's FTSE 100,
have written a letter in today's Times saying that leaving
the European Union would damage the British economy.
The signatories, including Virgin's Richard Branson
and Sir Charles Dunstone of Carphone Warehouse,
say Britain leaving the EU would lead to uncertainty, less
However one of the UK's oldest firms, Tate Lyle Sugars,
has written to its 800-strong staff saying that leaving the EU
would benefit the business, while entrepreneur Sir James Dyson
has described the vote as "the last opportunity to regain
Meanwhile, an advisor to the Turkish President Recep
Erdogan has told the BBC that Turkey feels betrayed by David Cameron,
saying that the country feels "taken in" as the Prime Minister had been
Turkey's "chief supporter" in its quest for EU membership.
As Sadiq Khan last night became the latest member of the Remain
campaign to accuse Leave of scaremongering with the "big fat
lie" that Turkey would soon join the EU.
Joining me now are our political correspondents,
Tom is with David Cameron on the Stronger In campaign bus
and Ben is with Boris Johnson in Leicestershire.
To you first, Tom. What is the Prime Minister doing today? What is the
mood with your camp? Welcome. You join us on the convoy. We have quite
a few buses. The Stronger In us just ahead of us with the Prime Minister,
with Sir John Major and Labour's Harriet Harman and this is a
frenetic final push. We were just on a building site with the Prime
Minister and we've been herded back onto this media bus and we are off
to the next destination. I think the message the Prime Minister has been
getting across today and will push even harder is about the economy.
We've heard it throughout this campaign and it was no surprise that
what he is spending the whole today doing is visiting small businesses.
We've just been on a construction site. People are working at the new
Honda plant down this road. They hammer that message to the voters.
We've had good cop, bad cop. Sir John Major the unlikely sledgehammer
during his speech earlier on. He was laying into his opponents in the
Leave campaign, accusing them of being the grave-diggers of Britain's
prosperity and saying that if there was a vote to leave today, they
would have questions answered. Thanks for that. Let's go to bed
now, who is with the Vote Leave with Boris Johnson. What are they up to
today? Ashley della Zouch in Leicestershire is now quiet again
after the Boris Johnson Circus bowled down the high street here. He
was here for about half an hour, a pit stop on his tour of England. He
began at Billingsgate market in London, then stopped in Essex, then
here, and will end the day up in Yorkshire. His message is all about
democracy, sovereignty, independence, and it's a message
that has cut through to a lot of voters. As we were walking down here
a couple of people shouted "Independence Day" at him. He does
later the crowd and wing it, unlike many politicians would do and it is
a campaign tactic that I think is quite different to the Remain
campaign. They will just pitch up in a high street, get out of the bus
all the cars and talk to people. This feels like quite a Leave
Leeming plays. Their union flags everywhere and the voters I've been
speaking to, the majority are convinced Britain needs to be out of
the EU. But Boris Johnson was harangued, particularly by one young
man who said that if there is an economic downturn, if the prospect
of young people are harmed in the future, then Boris Johnson will get
the blame. On the whole, though, his reception here was a supporter
wanted top Ben, just briefly, and it is a matter of feeling and of
instinct, really, with the Vote Leave people, do they feel that they
are now struggling obituary game the momentum they had maybe a week ago?
Do they feel they are coming from behind? -- to read gain the
momentum. I think they feel this is winnable but undoubtedly the
momentum that was felt at the beginning of last week was stopped
and they are having to read it now. They think this could go either way,
they feel it is exceptionally tight, that it is about turnout. My hunch
having talked to people here is that there are still a lot of undecided
voters. I've been speaking to people in shops, walking around the
streets, who say they've been looking at these competing
arguments, listening to them for weeks, confused by some of them, not
sure which way to go, and it will be a hunch they have when they get into
the polling booth tomorrow that will determine what box they take and I
think it's that... There appears to be huge number of undecided voters,
still, that make both campaigns realise this is very unpredictable,
very tight, too close for either to call with any confidence. Thank you
very much for that. Andrea Leadsom, there are clearly business people
who are on your side of the argument and renamed some of them in our
introduction but it is only fair to say that the majority of major
businesses in this country are for a vote to remain, aren't they? Yes,
they are and, of course, what we're talking about here is the senior
chief executive officers of big businesses. And let's be clear that
when Stuart Rose, who chairs the Stronger In campaign, appeared
before the Treasury committee to make the case for remain in, he
said, "The trouble with leaving is that it will mean a pay rise for
British workers, wages will go up for British workers," and, of
course, the point is that people who run big FTSE 100 countries do not
have to face the struggle against wages going down and for a good
school plays, for a doctor's appointment. They don't have the
same challenges as the people in this campaign. But it is more than
just the FTSE 100. Mainly the FTSE 100 have operations overseas anyway
so they are not necessarily were presented over British business
here. But 1285 business leaders, a lot more than the FTSE 100, they
employ 1.75 million people, they are backing Remain. They are not all fat
cats. Small and medium enterprises make up 99% of the businesses in the
United Kingdom and there are many surveys that show that 75% of them
believe that the UK should take back responsibility for negotiating free
trade, something that the EU has been disastrously bad at, and a
majority of small businesses on a broad scope, not on CBI numbers or
Federation of Small Businesses numbers, but actually the small
businesses of this country, they believe we will be better off or not
worse off if we leave the European Union and they, the small and medium
enterprises, employ 60 million people in this country, so they are
the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators, the people creating jobs.
It is not clear that the majority of them want to leave. I agree that
there is a high percentage that want to stay but the British Chambers of
Commerce, there is no sign there was a majority. The Remain team focused
on the economy last night and one of the big arguments has been, what
would our trading relationship be with Europe if we were to come out
of the EU, on what terms and conditions? The Remain people have
said they may not be added to just was, compared to what we have now,
but we learned today that the head of the German CBI, the Federation of
German industries, the equivalent of the CBI, has told the BBC that
erecting any post Brexit trade barriers would be, quote, very, very
foolish, and that what the German industry would want is a trade
regime that allows current trade to continue as it is. That's a powerful
lobby in Germany, as you will note it talk To continue as it is means
that there is a set of conditions that comes with that, for example
the free movement of people, which is what Andrea is trying to stop in
many senses. The economic argument is absolutely unanswerable. It is
compelling for why we should remain part of the EU, which is why the
Leave campaign have spent the last week, and was then the next few
hours, trying to get the debate back on issues of immigration. I want to
stick with trade because this would suggest, and you will know the
German industry Federation is much more powerful with the Christian
Democrat government than the CBI is with this Tory government, and there
you have the most powerful voice saying he would like trade, even if
Britain leaves, to continue on broadly the same terms. So that
would suggest that a lot of what your side has been saying may not
actually be true, that there could be a big constituency in Germany
that would like us, even if we come out, to continue trading on the same
basis. That's a very powerful boys but it is yet again just one of the
27 other nations of Europe that would have a view on this particular
issue. -- very powerful voice. It is for the Leave campaign to prosecute
the case here, much as it was the case for the camera crew yes
campaign in the Scottish referendum to make the case for change and
there is so much risk associated with what Andrea is arguing. Wrist
jobs, the economy, to works' writes. It is just not worth it. Vote Leave
is distributing leaflets that state on Turkey that it is, quote, "Set to
join the EU". It is not set to join the EU, is it? Well, our
government's policy is for Turkish accession. We in this country will
be paying up to ?2 billion between now and 2020 to contribute to the
preparations that those five accession countries to be able to
accede to the EU. And the European Commission, just in recent weeks,
has been saying they are going to speed up the access and
preparations, so... But even so, it is not set to join tiptop so far it
has passed one of the 35 hurdles it has to past. I understand that it
is... And rouble come on to whether Mr Cameron has been entirely honest
with us on this matter. I personally understand it is British policy that
the Turkish or join but if I'm set to do something, I'm about to do it
and we know that even with British support for joining, Turkey is not
set to join. So what we know is that the European Union, the eurozone, is
looking to do a transaction with Turkey that an ex--- in exchange for
sending migrants back to Turkey, which I've no idea if that is even
going to be legal, that Turkish citizens could get free movement in
the Schengen area, which doesn't include the UK, but there are
discussions through our diplomatic channels about giving special
passport holders in Turkey, 1.5 million of them, free movement of
the UK. Hold on, there has been a proposal, a suggestion, from the
deputy head of nation in Ankara. Are you saying that person counts for
nothing? No, I'm not, I'm saying that person, and it is a chic, does
not determine British Government policy on this. It was an idea
floated by a diplomat. Roll but can we be clear? This referendum is not
for the couple of years, so what time frame would be reasonable? If
this referendum is for a generation, which is what we understand it to
be, it has been 43 years since we last had a referendum on this
subject. Are you saying it is not going to happen in 43 years? I
didn't say that to you. I put the proposition to you, it is not set to
join. That terminology is very important because as you've just
said, the first chapter is being dealt with. We British taxpayers...
The chapters were opened in 1987! They've only made one of 35. The EU
repeat commission is speeding up their accession plans. -- the
European Commission. Isn't it interesting how when the EU gets in
a problem, as it has with migration, anything can happen? If it suits the
eurozone to deal with their migration crisis by allowing faster
Turkish accession, that is what they will do. They've made that very
clear. There's a problem. Leave may well be wrong that Turkey is quote
set to join", in other words it could be imminent by 2020, even by
2025, but there's a problem for the Remain people here and it's to do
with trusting the political elite, because Mr Cameron has said one
thing to the Turkish people - in 2010, he pledged to fight for their
membership, he was going to be the bridge between Ankara and the EU.
We've even heard from a Turkish diplomat on Newsnight last night,
"We thought Mr Cameron was our chief supporter in our quest for EU
membership. We are really flabbergasted he is now talking
about the year 3000". This goes to the heart of trusting the people who
govern us, doesn't it? I think that is a fair point it I think there is
a much more fundamental question here, which is how we as the
political class talk immigration in the round. Stick to Turkey. Are
that's exacting what I'm doing. They're up potentially 1.2 million
people in Turkey on their way to our borders now, they say, and that is a
tremendous thing for us all to consider and worry about but we need
to take a step back and say, EU migrants coming back to the United
Kingdom make a vibrant contribution. I want you to stick with Turkey.
There has been a tendency throughout this campaign on both sides, you ask
a question and you generalise it to graduate Morkel to blunt. Is at the
Labour Party's position that Turkey should join the EU? We are of the
opinion that the EU should be expanding. There are five accession
countries. As you said, chapter one of 35... But are you in favour of
Turkey joining the EU? I'm a passionate, proud pro-European
person and I believe in unity across Europe. So you are in favour of
Turkey joining the EU? I don't fear greater EU migration in the way that
Andrea does. Why can't you discover simple yes or no? Do you support
Turkey's membership of the EU? Right now no because I don't believe they
would pass the human rights test. 35 chapters, many of the most difficult
ones are yet to be resolved. I don't think anyone can feasibly save the
case has been made at this time. You are a supporter? You would want to
help? I am a supporter of the EU... I have one final question for you
because you said that politicians should be honest about migration.
When Jeremy Corbyn told the BBC on Sunday morning that you could have
no upper limit on migration if you have free movement, which is what we
have in the EU, that was honest, wasn't it? Yes. There could be no
upper limit on migration? Yes, and we should be honest about the value
of EU migration to our country. No upper limit? I just want to clarify,
no upper limit. What Jeremy Corbyn said on Sunday I believe is right.
So even if it was 500,000 net, 600,000 net, instead of the current
300, there would be no upper limit? Leave there are conditions tied to
that in terms of the benefits people are entitled to. The principle of
it, as articulated by Jeremy Corbyn, I believe to be right it It is easy
for you to say that because almost no migrants go to Scotland. 20% of
those live in the city that I'm proud to represent it that's why I
am able to say to you... It is easy for you to say because hardly any
migrants go to Scotland. None of the 260,000 net that came to Britain in
2014, how many went to Scotland? I don't have that figure. 8000 out of
two or 60,000. Why do so migrants to Scotland?
Why do most of them go? I would argue possibly London where there is
a very positive attitude. I do not think it is about geography.
Now, could the weather swing the vote tomorrow?
Popular belief is that rain keeps voters away but what will conditions
be like when polls are open between 7am and 10pm tomorrow?
Will the sun be shining in Kezia Dugdale's Edinburgh
or Andrea Leadsom's South Northamptonshire?
With polls so close, here's the BBC's Stav Danaos
with the all-important weather forecast.
Much of the country will start off on a fine, dry, bright
note on Thursday morning but the south-east corner will start
off with thunderstorms and heavy showers, the risk of some local
flooding from these through the morning period.
But the good news is, they will move away.
Things will dry up across the south-east.
Actually quite a good-looking afternoon for many.
Showers across the north-west corner, but a return to some
showers and thunderstorms across the south-east corner as it
becomes very warm and humid through the afternoon,
with temperatures reaching 24, 25 Celsius.
A bit more detail for southern parts of Northamptonshire,
we'll see early showers clearing away, with some dry spells
More showers, potentially some thunderstorms,
could develop in towards the evening period.
Further north, for much of Scotland it will be dry with some sunshine.
Very pleasant conditions there in Edinburgh, with 19 or 20
Celsius and some good spells of sunshine through the day.
Maybe an evening shower will move in from the south-west.
So to recap for Thursday, it's going to be quite a warm day
generally, up and down the UK, temperatures
The highest temperatures across the south-east,
where we are likely to see more thunderstorms later on in the day.
And for those eagle-eyed political anoraks among you,
you'll realise that those were the constituency
locations of prominent Remain and Leave campaigners,
David Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn, George Osborne, Michael Gove
Now, Professor John Curtice joins us now from the studio of tomorrow
night's referendum programme at BBC Elstree.
Does the weather make a difference to turn out? Very rarely. There have
been occasions with past general elections where one part of the
country has received the usual British rain and another part have
had a glimmer of sunshine but no perceptible impact on the level of
turnout. Unless the thunderstorms are actually disruptive and make it
difficult for people to get to a polling station, it is unlikely to
make much difference. When we spoke on this show last week, you said
that Remained were no longer favourites to win. There was a
serious possibility that the country would vote leave. Has Tsar grabbed
back some of the ground? -- has Remain grabbed back some of the
ground? It has grabbed back some of the ground but not all. What we may
need to worry about now is so far there is not any clear evidence that
the swing back to Remain because of the perceptions of risk that many
people were assuming would begin to be evident in the polls conducted in
the last week the campaign, so far at least that wingback is not in
evidence. So, last week we had the internet polls having the Leeds side
ahead. -- the Leave side ahead. The telephone poles last week it felt to
50/ 50. Now it is 51/49 in favour of Remain. Not as much division as
there was. If you split the difference between them, it is 50/
50. What about the pollsters who are undecided? What is the significance
or lack of significance about those who are undecided? That includes
people who don't care. There will be a disproportionate number of people
who will not bother to vote. Beyond that, it looks as though they are
rather more likely to vote Remain. Maybe in the order of 3/ two. Quite
a few of the opinion polls are factoring in these folk into their
headline estimates. Some opinion polls, once the folk have been
factored in, the numbers who do not know is minimal. One final thing. I
have been asked a number of times, there will be no Exeter pole
tomorrow night when the BBC goes live on air. -- exit poll. That was
such a watershed moment in the general election last year, people
will not forget that, particularly Paddy Ashdown for Dubya still has
not eaten his hat. There will not be an exit poll. Why not? We must go
wherever possible to the same polling stations we went to five
years previously that we know from the previous exit poll how those
places have voted. We now know how they have voted this year. The
methodology of the exit poll is about trying to estimate the change
in party support across the country on the base of that information. We
go down that route because I might most countries who do not have
precinct level characters. It is difficult to be sure if any polling
stations are representative of the country. Now there is no last time.
At least it was over 40 years ago and therefore irrelevant. We could
not replicate the methodology which is we will look at the results this
time and look what happened last time and use that information. There
is only a this time of that that means you are dependent on getting
the right sample of polling stations and we could not be confident in
doing that. Thank you for explaining that. Good luck tomorrow night. I
hope you will still be awake when I come on out on Friday morning. We
should probably know all the results by then. Y.
Here's our Ellie with a guide to everything you need to know.
It's the moment we've all been waiting for.
The results will be counted by local authority areas.
There are 382 counting areas in total.
Unlike a general election, there is no exit poll.
That's because, put simply, it's virtually impossible
The formal result isn't likely to be announced until 7am at the earliest
but there are certain things to look out for overnight,
and who better to ask about what to expect than the people
who've been busy practising what to expect?
Jeremy, hello, fancy seeing you here.
Ellie, in our Virtual Downing Street, how about that?
Can you walk me through what is going to happen on the night?
Come to this end because the first results we think will be classically
Sunderland, Newcastle, so we're going to start to see them
coming in at the end he and we have blue for Leave and
They will be building a path down Downing Street.
2am we think Oxford, a very Remainy kind of a place,
so we'll see whether they come in for Remain.
And then by 3am, interestingly, the City of Durham,
Interesting to see which way the wind is blowing there.
And then the big cities, the big numbers, Birmingham,
By 6am, Liverpool, we think, and then a result.
There is a dotted line along the floor by Number Ten,
which we'll put down there, which will be crossing the line.
I'm going to leave you to it because it is blowing my mind!
Luckily there are plenty of grapevines on this programme
So, John, for those poor people who have to go to work on Friday,
up early or should they just stay up late and then hope
Well, I think probably the best advice is, if you're the kind
of person who is capable of going to bed at seven or eight
in the evening, go and do that, set your alarm for no later
than about two o'clock and then, as a result, almost undoubtedly,
you'll be there as the results begin to kick in.
Now, it may be true that if the result is very close,
you may still not find out the final result until shortly before you have
to go to work but if, on the other hand, it's pretty clear
who is going to win, probably by not long after three
o'clock, you'll be able to go back to bed and get
Besides, there's far too much calculating to be done.
If you look at the electorate, look at the actual turnout that's
reported, and you then see whether the numbers within that
turnout have got to a point where one side has a lead
that cannot be overtaken by the other, you understand?
Mind you, if it was a dead heat, you'd be waiting
I don't know what the odds are but of course it could happen.
The results programme will be on until 9am.
The only thing that is certain in this referendum -
Kezia Dugdale, there are 32 accounting areas in Scotland. Mark
our hard for us. What area should we look for in Scotland when results
come which will be a good result for you, which would suggest you will
win? Everyone assumes Edinburgh will be very strongly Remain. Bookies
have stopped taking books. They think that the city will have the
largest Remain in the United Kingdom. More interesting,
Aberdeenshire. There is larger farming. And fishing. They have been
quite hostile. The Scottish Fishing Federation has been quite neutral.
They do not like the regulation but they like the free trade. On the
Scottish referendum, I think the borders were the first area to
declare. We always knew they would vote for the union but they did so
in such huge numbers that we began to think, maybe something is
happening here tonight. What would you be looking for that would guide
you? I am not an expert in this area at all. I generally think this is
close. People who want us to leave the EU and take back control have a
greater passion for it. Do you think they're more likely to turn out?
That will be my hope. South Northamptonshire visual
constituency. There are 382 accounting authorities altogether
across the United Kingdom. They have been listed on how likely they are
to vote to leave or remain. Where is South Northamptonshire? It used to
be about 50/50 early on. My experience of public debates and so
one has been overwhelmingly voting to leave. Your experience would seem
to be right. John has put your area is 134th most likely to leave which
means you are in the top 50% to leave. The answer to Lothian is
pretty easy, isn't it? I would hope is a strong Remain. It is coming in
at 322 out of 382, the top 15% or so are people who will vote to remain
in. I will be in Glasgow on the night. An area where there are so
many migrants is voting to remain. We were talking about statistics.
20% of EU migrants in Scotland live in the Edinburgh area. That includes
students, of which there are a lot. Where will you be on the night? I
will be in South Northamptonshire with a megaphone tomorrow and then
coming back to London tomorrow night. And a soapbox.
Soon all the discussion and debate will be over and we'll know
It seems as if we've been talking about it forever but the official
campaign only started just over two months ago.
Can you remember what happened in those two months though -
here's our look at the highs and lows of the campaign.
Three years ago, I committed to the British people that
I would renegotiate our position in the European Union and hold
I'm calling on behalf of the Vote Leave campaign.
The European Union, many warts and all, has proved itself to be
This is this morning's Sun headline -
I think it is wrong that money that should be spent on priorities
like the NHS is being spent on euro propaganda.
A vote to leave the European Union could have material
The shock to our economy after leaving Europe would tip
When I heard that, I did think of Pinocchio and the nose
Our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc of the European Union
to get a trade agreement done and the UK is going to be
Well, we can listen to the President of America if we choose to.
The last time we did, it was George W Bush telling us
You cannot sell bananas in bunches of more than two or three bananas.
I think the strain of the campaign is beginning to tell on him.
The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended war cemeteries
stand silent testimony to the price that this country has paid to help
Migration Watch forecasts net migration will exceed 250,000
I think their campaign is verging on the squalid.
I am staggered that Boris Johnson is standing here tonight,
still defending this ?350 million a week...
The European Union just isn't working any more.
There's a long way to go but we're in with a shout.
Campaigning for the referendum has been suspended and there's been
a vigil for Jo Cox at Westminster tonight.
And you can't win, you can't fight, if you're not in the room.
This Thursday can be our country's Independence Day.
Your campaign hasn't been Project Fear, it's been Project Hate
There's nothing patriotic about putting people's jobs at risk.
From the SSE Arena Wembley, good night from all of us.
So there we go, that might bring back some memories of this
referendum campaign. When this campaign started there were many
people who said, "I'm not that interested, turnout will be low, why
are we bothering to have it? It's essentially blue on blue arguments,
the Tories are divided on this, so let's have a referendum, the way
Labour was divided in 75 and had a referendum". It's actually turned
out to be a robust campaign. Yes, and it has become more lively in the
closing days, without question. It definitely hasn't had that same
atmosphere that the referendum campaign did Buddha think we'll see
the same novels of turnout tomorrow. I think that will be quite
interesting but there are parallels between the two referendums with
interventions from the IMF to Obama to David Beckham. You can almost
predict what's going to happen. There have been similarities but the
turnout in the Scottish referendum was unique. 85%, yes, and a very
compelling result as a consequence of that. You felt really that the
people had spoken. I hope we do get a strong turnout tomorrow because I
don't want to go through this again, I don't think many people do. We've
got but this issue to bed and get back normal politics. When it
started, the turnout in the last general election was 60s and the
scent and I wondered whether the turnout tomorrow would be in the
early 60s but after this campaign, it may be higher. It may be more
than the turnout in the general election. This is an issue about who
governs you. It is absolutely profound. It has much more of an
impact on our children and grandchildren's future than the
general election. This is a generation and remaining is an
incredibly risky option so people do need to weigh this up and see what
works for them. You still get these little bit in! I ask for a little
bit of analysis but you get the push of their site. -- side.
We're joined now from College Green by the political editor
of the Guardian, Anushka Asthana, and James Kirkup
Anushka Asthana, give me your impressions. What is your main
takeaway from it? That it got a lot messier than anyone expected it to
become. I don't think when David Cameron signed up for this he
expected it to be quite as it was. There were some panicked moments,
particularly last week, for the Stronger In camp and for Downing
Street. I think they thought first of all, might they lose it? And
secondly, did he really expect to be on the opposite side to Michael Gove
and Boris Johnson in such a vocal way? I have to say, we saw the Prime
Minister yesterday and I felt there was more confidence in the room.
They clearly think that it is swinging their way. James, what a
Mishra says is right, isn't it, that when David Cameron started in this
process, he never thought on the eve of the campaign, it would be too
close to call,, that he didn't have a decent lead. You never thought
he'd be fighting it without Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. This has
been a much tougher ex-political exercise for him and he ever
thought. That's absolutely true. Even when it became clear that there
were an awful lot more Conservatives on the other side than he realised,
I think some of the reactions on both sides have surprised everybody
in the party. The outstanding moment for me so far was the Tory backbench
response to George Osborne's exit budget last week. To have 60 plus
Tory MPs publicly - this is the thing, publicly - saying, "We will
not let you do this, George". We all knew long before that a lot of
Tories don't like George Osborne and are quite unfriendly towards him but
to do that publicly is... It crosses a very big line. I don't think
anybody, even the most as a mystic Tory, expected to get to their in
this campaign. Anushka, if we vote to leave, clearly it is a sea
change, a watershed in British politics, British political life.
But would I be right in thinking that even if we vote to remain and
we vote to remain by perhaps just a little bit that, actually, there's a
new story starts on Friday morning that this isn't over yet? I think
that David Cameron and George Osborne, as James was saying, have
tied themselves very, very closely to this remain campaign and they
have gone in very hard. That punishment budget that he was
talking about has infuriated backbenchers. Other things, too, the
?9 million on the leaflet, one MP telling me he was incandescent about
that. In some ways, the most dangerous outcome for David Cameron
on a personal level could be a very narrow Remain victory because
there's going to be a lot of people who are very, very upset about his
tactics. The question will be, can enough of them come forward to try
to actually destabilise his leadership? I think it will be very
difficult for him to pull the party together. That said, some people say
the Conservatives come together very quickly when they need to, which I
think normal people probably find quite difficult because politicians
seem to be able to do this. If I'd had a massive row with my friend for
the past couple of weeks, I think I'd be a bit grumpy about it. I know
the feeling, I'm exactly the same! Finally to you, James, a proposition
to you for a quick reaction. Regardless of what the Prime
Minister is saying at the moment, if it is vote to leave, the primaries
and the Chancellor will be certainly gone by the summer. It -- if it is
vote to remain by the small amount, they don't go straightaway but they
are both still the walking wounded, are they not? He said before the
election last year that he wasn't going to serve beyond the end of
this Parliament and that means he cannot go on. The chances are he'll
be gone by 2018 regardless of how this works out. I think it's quite
likely, as Anushka said, if we get that narrow vote it is perfectly
possible, given the strength of feeling in the party, given the
number of Tories who Frankie will not be happy with a remain Bob wrote
because they will feel the campaign was conducted unfairly and almost
illegitimately, I think that will stoke up potentially such anger in
the Tory party that if by the end of this year, even, you see David
Cameron making a statement saying, "I'm now beginning the process of my
retirement," it will not be a great surprise. We may well see some
statement on the beginning of the end before the year is out. We shall
see to it will for now. Now. Hope to see you both on the morning after
the night before. So how does getting the vote out
differ from the more usual general Well, referenda are a more common
affair in the United States - a lot of states have bladder sites
and they determine all sorts of things.
We are joined now by the American referendum
Powers are different? Because in an election, you got the party machines
that get the vote out? How does that work in a referendum? Well, first of
all thank you for having me back on your show. The first thing to talk
about is, what is the strategy to get out the vote in the next 24
hours before the election, and the strategy right now in the referendum
campaign has to be, how are we going to get our supporters out to vote?
And the time for persuasion is over. It's now a logistical matter? It is
over. People are starting to make their mind up with every minute that
goes by as we get closer and closer. How do you get the vote out? There's
a couple of things. Understanding what the strategy is, first of all,
and then the next part is that one of the ways of getting the blood of
out, there are a number of areas that I'm sure that the Remain site
and the Leave side are spending a lot of their human resources and
money on. One has to be canvassing. You've got to get groups of people
together, volunteers, and literally go out and talk to your supporters
with a very soft sell. It has to be, here is the address of your polling
station - please go out and vote tomorrow. And maybe one message
about what you are trying to to give it on your position. You are not
going to meet tens of millions of people with that so again, I
suspect, and no, actually, that both the Remain and the Leave have their
phone banks cranking. They should absolutely be calling everybody that
is on their IDE list as already being supporters. To galvanise them
to come out? At this point, forget about the people who are headed on
the other direction or are even on the persuasion listed top your job
is one thing, get them out through canvassing and through phones. And
the final pieces, the technology that is out there is absolutely
wonderful. With the list that people have, Leave.EU and Vote Leave Bob,
and the Remain site, I suggest they have got hundreds of thousands of
people on their database, e-mailing, text in, social media. All of this
digital stuff should be driving people up and you have to make it
easy. If you take all that, can you tell us, do we know yet whether vote
leave or Remain have the better getting out the vote infrastructure?
One of the things that I've seen is, I look at how many people they have
on the database and things like that and if you look at Vote Leave and
Leave.EU, that's 750,000 people in that database. More than Remain?
That's a lot. I believe it is more than Remain have in their database.
As long as they're able to understand not to your time and your
money on people that aren't worth it... The last pieces visibility.
You've got to have signed. It's a psychological impact it Very well.
Thank you. There's just time before we go
to find out the answer to our quiz. Which piece of EU
memorabilia history A) The giant Euro coin,
used at the launch B) Margaret Thatcher's Europe jumper
worn in the 1975 referendum? C) The pen Douglas Hurd used to sign
the Maastricht Treaty? Or D) The first prototype
of the EU Flag? What was it? I suspect it might be
that jumper. I'm going to have to say the jumper. It is that jumper
and look what I have here. I have the jumper! Would you like to wear
one? It's glorious! I think it might suit you both. Here you go. Wood
July to put it on? It's going to clash badly but it's got nice Vote
Leave colours. Of course that was for Remain in its day. I guess it
could be any side now. It hasn't got all the flags. We can do the back.
The Daily Politics isn't on for the rest of the week but I'll
be covering the referendum results in a special BBC programme
on Friday, and there'll be a two-hour Sunday Politics
special this weekend, starting at the earlier
Catch all the action from Euro 2016 across the BBC.
Radio 5 Live or the BBC Sport website.
You can also follow all the news and action from the Euros,
Andrew Neil is joined by energy minister Andrea Leadsom and Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale to discuss the impending EU referendum. There is also reaction to last night's BBC Great Debate at Wembley Arena.