Jo Coburn looks at the prospects for Theresa May's government and the Labour leadership contest with the Spectator Magazine editor Fraser Nelson and commentator Steve Richards.
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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
More than 180,000 people have signed up to Labour in just two days,
but how many of them have joined to support Jeremy Corbyn,
Mr Corbyn has this morning launched his campaign
to remain as Labour leader, with a promise to crackdown on firms
His challenger Owen Smith appears to have a mountain to climb.
Theresa May begun talks with European leaders
about the terms of Britain's exit from the EU - yesterday she was in
Berlin with Angela Merkel, will she have a trickier time
One month on from the referendum result which stunned the world,
we'll hear from a Vote Leave campaign insider about
And as MPs pack up and leave Westminster until September,
what books will they take with them to the beach?
We'll bring you their definitive summer reading list.
All that in the next hour and with us for the whole
of the programme today two journalists who may look
like a highbrow pair, but really they're just
as accessible and ready for the beach as any
Think of them as the Dan Brown and James Patterson
of political journalism - only without the sales figures.
It's Steve Richards and Fraser Nelson.
So, Parliament rises for its annual summer recess today,
many MPs have already left Westminster for their constituencies
and plenty of them will be breathing a sigh of relief after a period
in politics which has been more turbulent than any in recent memory.
But while some of them will be getting a holiday, for others it's
going to be a long hot summer with plenty of hard work
For Labour members it will be an unsettled few months,
as Storm Owen Smith takes on Cyclone Jeremy Corbyn.
The two will be travelling the country, as ballot papers sweep
And the results will be announced at a special conference
Two other parties will also have leadership contests over the summer.
On the first weekend of September we will find out which
Green Party hopeful will have their time in the sun.
And next week we get the final list of Ukip leadership hopefuls,
who come mid-September, will replace the El Nino of UK
The Conservatives are experiencing a calmer front now their leadership
question is settled, or at least as calm as it gets
in the post-referendum world of politics.
Theresa May will be hoping the Trade Winds are favourable
as she grapples with preparations for the Brexit negotiations -
having committed to triggering Article 50 by the end of the year.
And she'll be hoping to avert predictions of gathering
economic grey clouds, as yesterday the Bank of England
reported many companies were adopting a "business
as usual" approach after last month's referendum result.
Well, the Prime Minister has been visiting European leaders
to discuss her approach to leaving the EU.
Today she's due to meet with President Hollande
That follows her meeting yesterday with German Chancellor,
Mrs Merkel agreed with Mrs May that the UK shouldn't
rush for the exit door, but should take its time
I want to work with Chancellor Merkel and my colleagues around
the European Council in a constructive spirit,
to make this a sensible and orderly departure.
All of us will need time to prepare for these negotiations
and the United Kingdom will not invoke Article 50
That is why I have said already this will not happen before
I understand this timescale will not please everyone but I think
it is important to provide clarity on that now.
We should strive for a solution which respects the decision
of British voters, but also respects the interests of our
Together we should maximise the opportunities for
We're joined now by the Conservative MP Mark Field.
Welcome to the Daily Politics. The last one before the recess. First
meetings, you could say always contain warm words and it seemed to
go well. But that doesn't necessarily mean it will be easy
from now on Think everyone knows it is going to be tough. In the
Conservative Party we know that and I think that Angela Merkel's team
out in Germany are well awhich are there will be difficulties as we try
to extricate ourselves from the European Union. It was a positive
first meeting and it has been remarked by a number of political
commentator that is there are profound similarities in the
political stale of the two ladies, and I think it'll go well. It is
quite amazing, I suppose, to see two women together at the top of
politics, it isn't often that you see that. I think we will see more
of it in the months and years to come. It is a good thing, isn't it?
Well, any Scot will be well-used to seeing women at the top of the
#35r789. Full of them. Can't move without them? In Scotland, it is
leading world politics, in having women, as presiding officers and
leading parties. It may be unusual here but in Holyrood people have
been used to it for sometime. It could be perhaps, Hillary Clinton in
and perhaps, a female President of France. Well, before that happens,
Francois Hollande is still there in France. How tricky is that meeting
going to be? He is going to be frosier, isn't he? I think it will
be fine. Theresa May is an emollient politician. In contrast to Gordon
Brown, nine years ago, he was almost bereft of ideas and a spent force.
What has surprised everyone with Theresa May, she is full of ideas,
firm ideas, on what she hopes to do, for example, to encourage social
mobility which seems to have gone downhill. She's not enthralled by
the way, Blair, Brown and Cameron and Osborne were with the City and
metropolitan values. There is a real sense of mission there. But she
doesn't know what she is going to do with Brexit and that at the moment
will be the defining issue. I think you are right about that in one
sense, however it is all the more reason why she has a domestic agenda
she is also looking to put together. We don't know how long the Brexit
issue will take. Don't get me wrong, I'm in the unreal it be, it is going
to be a dark cloud with difficulties for the political class. It is all
the more reason why what has been interesting, is she hasn't defined
the early days of her Prime Ministerier by Brexit. We know by
Mrs America Mark, she said to her own Parliament, that the UK can't
cherry pick. - Mrs Merkel. And that will be the potential pit
fall. I think it will be unrealistic to think that we can cherry pick on
single market and passporting without having to give some leeway
as far as free movement is concerned. However, I think you also
have to remember there is a lot of volitility throughout Europe. We
have elections in France and Germany. The Italian banks are in
deep trouble. Actually, we have to remember we are going to be having
this negotiation over the next two or three years once Article 50 is
triggered but that's not going to be taking place in a vacuum, it will be
being taking place in a volatile situation in the rest of Europe,
there are tremendous opportunities, pro-I had vooing we diplomatically
we grasp them. How do you assess her chances of getting a deal to sell to
the British people With great difficulty. This early period
reminds me of when John Major took over, it felt like a new Government
after a traumatic period for the Conservative Party. He moved away
from the past, abolishing things like the poll tax, which was
associated with the Thatcherite passed and the way that Theresa May
has moved away from the Cameroons now. But Europe hovered for John
Major in the form of the Maastricht Treaty. And Brexit hovers for
Theresa May and it is bigger and more problematic than max trict even
though it was a nightmare for John Major. Although it feels fresh and
new and she has moved into the job with poise. This is the honeymoon
period and Brexit does pose many, many nightmarish problems for her.
Immigration will be one of them. She restated about the commitment to
bring net migration down to tens of thousands. She said it would take
sometime. A realisation that perhaps it just isn't achievable. Well, not
for the next ten years, anyway. If you look at the projections, nobody
envisaging that happening. But interestingly she says will will
control free movement rather than abolish it. This relishes the
prospect... Of of a deal being done. Jiem' snot as gloomy as stee. There
are many ways of leaving the EU. Britain voted for a way. I don't
think there are many rocks ahead of her. But you have to satisfy many of
the people who voted for Brexit and who wouldn't control of movement.
But people voted for a different range of reasons. I think the schism
could be the eurozone verses the EU I think there is an opportunity if
we go down an down the Norwegian route, the EU-light approach, we
would have a situation like the Czechs and Swedes, over the next few
years. If it is achievable, of course. Let's look at the banking
industry. There are companies like that sector that have been able to
operate across the EU as long as they have a base in the UK called
passporting that. Will not continue until a new deal is arranged for
them as well? It'll continue until we know what will happen. Truth of
the matter is obviously that will be something that will have to be
negotiated to a certain extent. I think it is true to say... Are you
worried about it? Think it is true to say that the City of Europe will
lose some of that bishops it would be naive to think some won't go to
Dublin, Frankfurt or Paris. How big a hit will it be? There are
opportunities that also arise. One of the things about the City of
London and I was saying this before the referendum it is not an Joan
shore centre for Europe it is an off-shore centre for around the
world that brings problems as well but tlurnts as a global financial
centre. You have talked about them, but we don't know how they are going
to form, fair enough. In the meantime you would expect other EU
countries to jump in there. We have heard the French Prime Minister say
- we want it build the financial capital, you remember Boris Johnson
saying to the French businesses come to London, now they will do that in
reverse. The same arguments were put is a years ago when we didn't join
the euro. And the critical mass of London is stronger against Paris or
Frankfurt since that time. I'm in the naive thinking there will not be
difficulties but I don't think it is all doom and gloom and it won't be
easy for par toys reinvent itself as a financial global cap. A how much
goodwill is there across the EU to what Britain is trying to do? I
think it is wrong to look at it with good L I agree with Mark. It'll be
fine with France tonight, in tonal atmospherics, here is a new Prime
Minister. But they will have to calculate what is in their own
self-interest, so for example, the French presidential election will
play a bigger calculation in how France plays this over the next 12
months rather than goodwill on either side. Similarly the next
German election which will be uppermost in Merkel's mind. This is
where the game of chess gets so complicated. They will have to
calculate what their electorates are thinking... Are prepared to...
Prepared to accept. On the whole issue of free, movement, for
example, the rise of Le Pen in France, may well mean the French are
happy to row in behind some sort of hybrid deal we could be talking
about come the early part of 2017. So there are opportunities, the
diplomacy element and one thing I would say which has been evident, so
many European reads such perfect English and read our primary
sources. The one thing many of our ministers have to do is not spend
their time with a mega phone saying what they are going to end up doing.
The difficulty is so many people now read the Times and Telegraph on a
daily basis... And all publications. The The contrast we have, we pick up
once a month what is happening in the economist from Swedish politics
and you what is happening in Italy cops from a diplomat. I think we
need to, as I say we have a stronger hand that we might think and need to
play the diplomatic cards carefully. Well, thank you very much.
Now it's time for our daily quiz, and it's all about former
It's been reported this morning that before last year's general election
Mr Clegg spent two days and close to ?8,000 doing something
that the party hoped would show he could be "fun".
Did he, A) Go to a theme park in a baseball cap?
C) Film his own version of a pop video?
Or D) Erect a 'Cleggstone' in his back garden?
At the end of the show Steve and Fraser
The Labour Party is gearing up to spend a second consecutive summer
While last year's was all about Jeremy Corbyn's surge
from nowhere to beat his more established rivals, this year's
looks like being a hard-fought and bitterly divisive contest
between Mr Corbyn and his challenger Owen Smith, who is backed
The election, which ends in September, is being fought
on a one-member-one-vote basis, and there's been a scramble to sign
In the past 48 hours, an extra 183,000 people have paid
?25 to become registered supporters and vote in the ballot.
That means a total of more than ?4.5 million for the party coffers.
It's not clear how many people were signing up to vote
for or against Mr Corbyn, but a spokesman for Mr Corbyn has
said it is "reasonable to assume" that the majority
of the new registrations come from supporters of the
Well, Owen Smith is holding a rally in Birmingham later today,
and this morning he was asked whether he was worried
about lots of the new registrations being from Corbyn supporters.
Well, they might be, but we don't know, do we?
Let's be blunt, we don't know how those people have joined.
I've got friends who have joined, one or two, because they want
I'm sure a couple of Jeremy's friends have joined, as well.
If they do end up being on that side, it looks pretty difficult
for you, would that end up in a split of the party?
The reason I'm running is very simply because I think the party
is in danger of splitting and if we do split the Labour Party
So that was Owen Smith, let's listen now to Jeremy Corbyn
launching his re-election campaign in London just a short while ago.
I wish they were all on board and I wish they would play a full part in
the economic debate yesterday when euro John McDonnell -- when John
McDonnell was really putting this to the government. We have a government
creating worse divisions in our country, and it is their job to get
behind the campaign against this government. This party is going
places, it is strong and capable of winning a general election, and if
I'm leader of the party I will be that Prime Minister.
We're joined now by the Labour MP Kerry McCarthy, she's supporting
Owen Smith for leader, and Barbara Ntumy from Momentum
which is an organisation supporting Jeremy Corbyn.
Barbara, what is the evidence that the majority of new registrations
are Jeremy Corbyn supporters? Momentum had a lot of people engaged
and we did a lot of recruiting of getting people to sign up for just
?25 and we are very confident, even though we don't know the numbers,
but we are confident people have joined to support Jeremy. There was
also the saving Labour campaign, people were urging people to come
together to save the Labour Party because this is absolute crisis
point as Owen said, and there were people who signed up through that,
you can't assume that the people that voted for Jeremy last time are
going to vote for him this time. I've spoken to people in my
constituency who say they realised they did the wrong thing. It is
interesting. Just one example, one of the lobby correspondents said the
latest sampling of 183,000 new registrations are 60-40 in favour of
Owen Smith. That is a surprise, but there are many people already
members, Jeremy Hunt the support of many of the members, not just the ?3
voters, and in the next week we will have Jeremy and Owen putting their
manifesto forward, and I'm slightly worried that Owen is pitching to the
left, because Jeremy has changed the debate, so people know they have got
to say the things that people can hold onto. You say you are worried,
surely that would fill you with confidence? I'm worried he is
pitching to the left even though he is not that left, his record does
not show that he has been campaigning on these issues, he
abstained on the welfare debate, you can't abstain on very crucial things
which will affect millions of people. As Secretary of State for
Work and Pensions Owen led the charge against tax credits where we
got the government to do a U-turn, the government MPs voted against it.
This is a nonsense line which is being peddled, in the same way they
tried to cast aspersions on commitment to the NHS which is free
at the point of delivery, we have got to get away from that. We need a
genuine and honest debate about these candidates and what they stand
for and what they can do and what their abilities are. It is not just
what you say, it is what you do as a politician and whether you have a
strategy for dealing with the crisis the country finds itself in. I
agree, is what you do. I find it hard to believe that loads of people
that resign from the Shadow Cabinet are now saying they tried their best
to work with him, if you look at what has unfolded, it seems half the
effort was put in and the other half was thinking of a way to get rid of
him. It was not a spontaneous thing, it was very organised. You can't
spend time saying you are trying to work hard with someone, and then
throw that away at the drop of a hat. 80% of the Parliamentary Labour
Party, that spans all the politics which exists within the
Parliamentary Labour Party, certainly. I did not think he was
doing a great job as leader and I did not support him to become leader
but I recognised he had a mandate. In my case I was disappointed with
his lack of leadership, and it was obvious he was not fully on board
with the Remain campaign. There seemed a complete lack of concern,
used the phrase, we campaigned around the country but we were
ultimately unsuccessful, and that is all he said, but everyone else said
it was devastating, so many issues we need to be addressing. We are
looking to the leader to set out what happens next. We had a PLP
hustings on Monday and Jeremy said we have two years to trigger article
50 and that brings it home. That is not even true. He does not
understand... He does not understand anything about Brexit. Labour
supporters of voted to stay, it was Ukip and the Conservative supporters
who voted to leave, you cannot blame Brexit on Jeremy Corbyn. Don't talk
over each other. I'm not blaming Jeremy Corbyn for the referendum
result, but I do think he was very lacklustre during the campaign. What
I was looking for after the referendum result, a sign that he
was bothered about it, and he did not seem bothered at all, but also
that he had a sense of where we were going to go next. He called for
article 50, only him and Nigel Farage called for it to be triggered
immediately, and that shows he did not understand what the situation
was and the importance of triggering Article 50 and at the PLP hustings
on Monday he said we have two years to trigger article 50 which is not
the case. He doesn't understand and he doesn't really care about it. To
the nature of the campaign. Jeremy Corbyn says he doesn't want the
contest to end up in the gutter. We are going to put up a poster, pitch
of Jeremy Corbyn and Owen Smith, in a moment, does this represent not
going to the gutter? -- a picture. Owen Smith says he was invited to a
defence event because it was a significant employer in his
constituency, but he didn't go. Is that post-affair? I did not make the
poster. -- poster fair? Jeremy Corbyn supporters have done it.
Should it be called out? Definitely, it is not accept of all, but none of
this started with Jeremy and it will not end with Jeremy. People have
gone out of their way. It is never as nasty as this. Women are attacked
on Twitter for having certain politics. You don't think that the
intimidation of women MPs that has been cited by those women
themselves, you don't think that is exaggerated? Not saying it is worse,
it is something that has always existed and we should continue to
say it is an acceptable, but I'm very concerned when the narrative is
given that this is only happening because of Jeremy and he is
instigating it when that is not necessarily true. Is that really
fair? I've been a member of the Labour Party 25 years and all of my
colleagues that have been involved, they say it has never been as nasty
as this now. Social media exaggerates it because it is easier
to attack people and you have anonymous trolls, but it feels far
more on present than anything I can remember and I feel it is stoked up,
the narrative of betrayal. Everyone who doesn't support Jeremy is a
traitor, unprincipled, has no socialist values and no place in the
Labour Party. He has encouraged it. He says he would like to reach out
to Labour MPs and he would like them to come back into the Labour fold
which is growing under him because of the increasing party membership.
He said that again this morning. He also said he doesn't expect this
loyalty from MPs if he wins again and there is a threat there that
there would be increasing cause for the selection of MPs that don't
support him. Should that happen? -- calls. They need to decide how to
hold the representative to account. It feels like people are not willing
to put differences aside to try and work together as much as possible,
and constituencies should hold the elected representative to account.
Jeremy voted against the Labour whip over 500 times, he called for John
Smith to have a leadership challenge two months after he was elected,
with 91% of the vote. Those were the things he did then. Five days after
Black Wednesday and we were ahead in the polls. It seems to be one rule
for Jeremy and one for everyone else. What will happen in the
contest? I've just read the polls. Actually, Paul has which those
figures around, it is 60-40 in favour of Jeremy Corbyn. A
significant turnaround and that confirms a poll in the times on
their front page, yesterday. We must assume at this stage Jeremy Corbyn
starts miles ahead and they are highly effective at organising these
kind of events as we know from last summer. If that proves to be the
case it raises a number of questions about what the Labour MPs are trying
to achieve through this. I've been doing a 3-part series on Corbyn's
first year and the last goes out on Monday on Radio 4 and it is clear
that there was very little coordination amongst the dissenters
after the referendum. Margaret Hodge did one thing. Hilary Benn did
something else. The Shadow Cabinet did something else. When John
McDonnell said at a rally the other day, I won't repeat it exactly, but
he said they are not very good at organising. Use the supporters, yes.
That is proving to be the case so far. -- useless. It Jeremy Corbyn
wants this as a long-term project he needs a different parliamentary
party and the Parliamentary party needs a different leader, that much
is clear. In terms of the party, the figures are astounding, in terms of
new membership, the money that will be rolling into the Labour Party for
the first time in many years, that is also pretty astounding. There's
also the massive disconnect the mechanic a movement in the way that
Jeremy Corbyn and the grassroots supporters think without the
Parliamentary party? -- massive disconnect, but can it be a
movement. Yes, it can be, the people who have just signed up, that is
more than the Tory party membership, so it is a movement. Can it be a
government? That is not the aim of Jeremy Corbyn, his aim is to capture
the Labour Party with his hard left views. It is not hard left. The
thing is, we want to form a government and Jeremy has been very
effective in opposing the Tories and their cuts and he has been very
effective on issues of social justice. Actually fund education.
Many older people have the chance to go to education for free, the cost
of rising is -- the cost of living is rising. It is enough. Things can
be better and we want things to be better and we understand you need to
be in government to do that and that is what we are doing. We will knock
on the doors, we went out on our hundreds to knock on the doors for
Sadiq Khan to be the Mayor of London, we need to stop distort the
facts, we want Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister and we want the
country to be better for everyone and not just a few people. That is
the passion of view, Jeremy Corbyn can lead a Labour government into
the government. He's not electable, he's not a future Prime Minister,
and when I go... On the Bristol MP, there are parts of Bristol where he
goes down very well, amongst the former Green voters, people who are
in organisations, but if I go out to be more traditional Labour voters,
it is hard to convince them that he could be a Prime Minister. He wants
to speak to those people, the evidence is that Ed Miliband has
lost Labour loads of support, but Jeremy said... You said it would be
a disaster when he came, but he has not lost any by-elections. Can I ask
one question regarding the rules, is it right that the Jeremy Corbyn
supporters have offered to pay ?25 for anyone to back their leader? Is
that right? It was heartbreaking when I heard that the NEC had
decided... Shore. -- that is fine. The problem is, wider working class
people have to pay so much -- wider working class people have to pay so
much to be a member of the party? Thanks for joining us.
Today marks one month since Britain voted to leave the EU -
A result that surprised the pollsters, the pundits
Recently on the show we had an 'in' campaigner
reflecting on what went wrong, and today we're going to hear
from a central figure in the Leave campaign
Here's Vote Leave's chief executive, Matthew Elliott, with his account
So, Big Ben has struck 10.00pm, and we can now start
trying to discover which side thinks it's carried the day.
At 10.00pm on 23rd June, the consensus was that Vote
A contact of mine at Number 10 texted me to say,
And even Nigel Farage was predicting a Remain victory.
But after our final conference call with Boris Johnson, Michael Gove,
and Dominic Cummings, our campaign director,
Gisela Stuart and I were still upbeat.
People were talking that we'd lost, the evidence wasn't there.
And, of course, as the evening went by, it became clearer and clearer
that we were winning but I did not accept it until David Dimbleby said,
"We can now officially declare that Vote Leave has won."
I kept saying, "We need two speeches."
The UK has voted to leave the European Union.
I kept saying, "We need two speeches."
But this was not really reciprocated.
The mood was - we only need a speech to concede defeat gracefully,
but you and I didn't quite see it that way.
Getting to that point was a long road.
Five years ago I ran the "No to AV" referendum campaign.
I took on this challenge, the test run for a possible EU referendum.
We manageded to turn public opinion from being 2-1 in favour
of electoral reform, to being 2-1 against.
Alongside me at No to AV was Peter Crudder.
When I joined No to AV it was a bit political.
It needed that injection of business knowledge.
I think the same applied to Vote Leave.
What I brought was this business acumen.
Having the funding and the right campaign team in place
for Vote Leave was essential but we had three big
We were taking on the establishment, we were fighting Ukip.
And we had to overcome the natural bias in a referendum
To take on the establishment, we needed to recruit big
We needed to show swing voters that serious people from politics,
business and other walks of life, backed voting Leave.
If you look back to 1975, one of the reasons why the Leave
campaign then was so unsuccessful was because leading political
figures were seen as very much outliers, in some cases extremists.
So to demonstrate there were senior, centrist, moderate figures
campaigning to leave the European Union, I hope
made a real contribution to the result of the referendum.
But at the same time as taking on the establishment,
we were also fighting Ukip and Nigel Farage.
We knew that swing voters didn't want to feel they were voting
Resisting the overtures from Ukip, to create a properly
cross-party campaign, was probably the toughest
aspect of the referendum for the campaign team.
But at one point, the group closest to Ukip - Leave.EU -
sent out a statement to MPs and the media, saying that
Dominic Cummings and I couldn't run a sweet shop and Nigel Farage
appeared on the Daily Politics saying both of us should be sacked.
This was a massively stressful period and the pressure
A week before the referendum, we were riding high.
Vote Leave had punctured a hole in project fear by organising 60 MPs
to say they would vote against George Osborne's Brexit
budget and we had the wind in our sails but then Nigel Farage
unveiled the most controversial poster of the referendum.
The Breaking Point image was damaging enough
but in the context of Jo Cox's murder, it threatened
Thankfully it was clear to voters that Ukip was not
The final challenge we faced was to overcome the natural
status quo bias of any referendum campaign.
As was the case with the Alternative Vote,
or Scottish independence, the change side often loses
because people's natural caution kicks in.
We had to show how there was no status quo.
We highlighted the risk of Remain and we showed how Leave
Getting to what people feel, rather than what they say,
is where the future of research is and this is what we did
and the one key thing that emerged on this was the strength
of emotional connectivity with that "take control" argument.
So that single message was actually a decision of genius, in many ways,
because it was exactly what people could understand.
It was something that people just got.
It cut through straightaway to so many people.
At Vote Leave we were challenged for telling voters that the UK
is billed ?350 million each week for our membership of the EU.
It is a legitimate figure, it is entirely right.
We emblazoned this figure on our bus and on our literature and our
spokespeople repeated it again and again.
In direct comparison to the arguments for Remain,
around the perceived impact on the economy in a head-to-head
question, if you like, the ?350 million question won every
At heart, I'm a policy wonk before I'm a referendum campaigner.
At Vote Leave we probably achieved the biggest policy change, ever,
A month on, the repercussions from Vote leave victories have
The economic scares that people predicted haven't materialised.
British politics has been turned upside down.
And even the European Union is showing signs of reform.
As Liam Fox wrote on Vote Leave's white board on referendum night,
Is it true there was only one speech written for night? I was with Gisela
Stuart had seemed astounded by the are you, delighted but astounded and
the only speech that had been written was the one to condition
seed defeat. I think the most difficult speech to make was to
concede defeat. A victory speech was easier. Was there only one? There
was one but about midnight she started skripling away on her
victory acceptance speech. You say you were always confident but not
everyone in Vote Leave was so sure? From February, once we saw the deal
and terrain, we felt sure if it got to the final stage of the
referendum, it was still 50-50, still in contention, then we could
get across the line and win. We knew we had - our voters were more
enthusiastic and we felt our ground game was better. On the ground game.
Let's talk about a that ?350 #34i8 yob fichlingt you say you make no
aapproximately joy for t but you promised something you couldn't
deliver and you knew you couldn't deliver ?350 million being spent on
the NHS. So you lied, effectively. I disagree. A referendum campaign is
very different to an election, in the sense that... You don't have to
at the time truth... We are a campaign team, we are campaigning
for a certain result and we hoped that the Government would use that
money for the NHS. You didn't say, that you said "Lets avenue give our
NHS the ?350 million the EU takes every week." That was disputed that
?3 #r50 million was sent to the EU, in fact it was disproved but then to
promise that amount, which people distanced themselves from
immediately afterwards s dishonest. The key point was, it could have
been delivered by the Government, we would have liked it could have been
delivered by the Government but Vote leave didn't become the Government
afterwards. What about the in-fighting? You talked about that
and said it was difficult to deal with. Was it something that really
undermined the Vote Leave campaign? The key point was, we had the vision
of a cross-party business-led campaign involving senior people
from business, politics, the military other walks of life. It was
the best way of conadvicing swing voters it was a moderate, sensible,
mainstream thing to do, to vote Leave. It was why it was important
that we weren't dominated by Ukip and had a separate independent
campaign. You were on the Leave side, Fraser, were you surprised?
Yes, really surprised. I don't know any journalist o actually who
predicted that Leave would win. The polls repeatedly told us otherwise,
we knew not to trust them from last time around but you would think they
would have their house in order. The momentum seemed to be going with the
Government's side. Pretty much every single member of the establishment,
on behalf of the status quoe, the Government, blink and all economists
and you had a rag tag bag of insurgents on the other side. So, I
didn't know anybody who predicted a Brexit strike but one arrived in
what was certainly the most extraordinary political victory in
our living memory. It feels like a lifetime now since the vote, or it
does to us anyway. Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, key personalities in
that Leave campaign. They won the war, if you like, but they haven't
been anywhere in the piece? Well, Boris is Foreign Secretary. But one
of the extraordinary things about politics is what follow a tumultuous
event, like you have just brilliantly described, is never
logical. So you have a Remain Prime Minister in place, albeit one that
kept a very low-profile during the referendum. Michael Gove, nowhere to
be seen. If you like, Boris Johnson, it was a surprise even to him, I
think in the end. What, becoming Foreign Secretary? He had two
surprises, Michael Gove suddenly standing, an extraordinary
Shakespearean drama and then returning when many people were
saying, well he is going back to writing books. That was a major
weakness, I think in the campaign, that was there no follow-through.
The lack of organisation was jaw-dropping, staggering and I
think, indefensible. On that, looking ahead, what about a group
being formed to hold the Brexit department to account? To watch for
any, as you would no doubt see t backsliding? I think there is a need
for a group to work with the Government. You have groups like the
Centre for Social Justice who work closely with Iain Duncan Smith or
the networks that worked with Michael Gove when he was at the
Department for Education so there might be a need for a group to
expand on the idea. Do you think there should be one? I think so.
Would you be part of that? We will have to wait and see. This is what
is being talked about now, is holding Government it account.
Absolutely, the important thing to my mind, state of the EU immigrants,
throughout the campaign, everybody said there should be no question
that EU immigrants should stay here, no question of repatriation,
everyone said that, and Theresa May has put the skids under three
million nationals living in Britain. They are being sent letters up in
Scotland saying, you are OK for now. The lack of precision in the
immediate aftermath. I don't blame the Brexiteers, they had to win a
campaign and they won T I don't blame what you did in the NHS. All
is fair in a xavenlt I blame David Cameron for offering this in the
first place, as a binary referendum, on in or out, where no-ones with a
under any pressure to explain what out would mean in any great deat the
same time. You had a campaign to win, but that's a different
objective, which you did brilliantly and that is the problem with
referendums. I understand why he felt he had to call t but they are
dangerous devices because you then, once it is called, you just focus on
how you win it. And the threshold... And now face the consequences and
no-one is entirely sure what it is going to mean. Did you enjoy it? I
loved T However difficult it was. Would you have said that if you had
lost? Of it a tough year, it was a really tough year, but it feels a
great sense of achievement. Yes, because you won. I think it would
have been much tougher if we had lost. Well, you didn't so thank you
very much. Now, let's turn to the situation, in
Turkey. Following last Friday's failed army
coup, President Erdogan has declared a state of emergency in the country
for three months, giving him More than 50,000 state employees
have been rounded up, sacked or suspended in recent days,
as the government says it is attempting to root out
the "virus" behind the coup. Well let's speak now
to our correspondent Nick, have there been any further
developments? Well, the people are really trying to digest, now, the
news of this state of emergency. The President announced it late last
night, just before midnight. We know it'll last for three months. Under
the constitution it could have lasted significance months and some
of his critics are clutching at straws really, saying perhaps this
is not as bad as it could have been. Anyway, Turkey, since the coup, only
five or six days ago, has been living under a kind of de facto
state of emergency anyway, so some people, even critics of the
government are saying - better to know where we stand than to be in
this sort of legal quagmire. People, however, are also concerned, what
will happen now? The huge numbers you referred to, more than 50,000
people suspended from their jobs. Teachers called back from their
summer holidays to be told they are now under investigation. More than
6,000 arrests in the army, 100 top generals, more than one in four of
the top brass of the military here all under arrest. So a lot of
concern in society. A lot of worry but also a sense that this Turkey
just survived a coup. A military attacks on Parliament and police
headquarters, so there is also some understanding that clear, firm
measures are needed at a time like this. Thank you very much.
We're joined now by the Liberal Democrat peer Meral Hussein -
she sits on the all-party parliamentary group for Turkey.
It sounds devastating in terms of the scale of the state of emergency.
The state of emergency was five days late. As the president said last
night, Francis had a state of emergency since last November. --
France has had. People are still reeling from the repercussions of
the attempted coup and people in Turkey have memories of the last
four attempted coups and so they feel very much in favour of the
president, and the majority, that includes Kurds and secular wrists.
Looking at it very simply, it is the Muslims are more in favour of what
the President is saying, it has been said. People are coming together to
give support to the button which is unprecedented. Amnesty International
says there's a crackdown of exceptional proportions, do you
think they are wrong? It is exceptional, but we don't know... Is
it justified? We don't know. The people feel there is a conspiracy,
people in all sections of public life embedded who are sympathisers
who have had a hand in this coup, and the president has said he's
going to this out. The majority of people think this is a good thing
but it seems he is going way too far and we don't know what is going to
come out the other end, what kind of society is going to emerge. The
question is, has he always wanted to do this? We know from following his
government in Turkey, there have already been moves to clamp down on
certain freedoms in the press, for example. He's now doing what he
wants. He is, it is true that he was clamping down on freedom of the
media and journalists, but there was a strong indication that he was
moving against certain sections of the military and the other
establishment before the coup and people in Turkey I've spoken to have
said to me this coup was pre-empting what they thought he might have
done. Is this the beginning of the end of democratic rule in Turkey? It
looks as if he is taking this opportunity to clamp-down on away
which is staggering in scale -- a way. He's really going for the
academic and universities, teachers, everybody. An extraordinary
reaction. You are better placed to make judgments on internal targets
politics, but it seems the assessment early on was it was a
clumsy ill judged coup but it has been treated as if it was the most
extraordinary threat to this government. Clearly by implication,
people were involved in every walk of Turkish society, if he is going
to justify this level of clamp-down, but I think he's using it as a
excuse to seize control of every element of Turkish society. These
people involved in the coup, beyond the military, what should the EU do
question up we are doing this deal which has been successful in terms
of stemming the flow of migrants through grace -- what should the EU
do? We have given them billions in aid, to Turkey. The EU was pretty
useless before and it will be so now. Right now Germany, Italy, they
are terrified, so they are in a weak position if Erdogan loses, I cannot
see any punishment working at the moment. That is the problem with the
EU, it is great as a free-trade bloc, but as a political entity,
useless. What do you think is going to happen? I think it will go
further and I agree with Steve, he's Bubba be taking this as an
opportunity to get firmer control -- he's probably taking this as an
opportunity. The EU have lost any influence they have had, and the
fact the United Kingdom, after what happened in the Brexit campaign, in
which Turkey was the fight, because of the poster and all the rest of it
-- in which Turkey was vilified. I was talking to friends last night,
they say the majority of the Turkish public and they think the UK and the
United States are involved in a conspiracy to shut down their
democracy, they really believe this. They were slow to condemn the coup
and they don't seem to be taking it as serious way in terms of the
United States wanting a next edition, so there are many aspects
to this, layer upon layer. -- wanting an extradition. Thanks for
joining us. With Parliament rising MPs are
leaving Westminster until September. They'll be able to concentrate
on work in their constituencies, fight the odd leadership battle,
and in some cases even manage So what will they be reading
if they do make it as a far Come aboard London's floating book
shop for a selection from the MPs' Want to know more
about the Labour leader? How about Comrade Corbyn by former
lobby journalist Rosa Prince. Everyone is desperate for insight
into the new Prime Minister. Our Joe is a biography of the former
Conservative mayor of Birmingham in the 19th century,
Joseph Chamberlain. Written by Theresa May's chief
of staff Nick Timothy. We've recently increased our stock
of ex-prime ministers by one and here's a trio of prime
ministerial biographies. First of all this one of Tony Blair
by the investigative journalist Tom Bower,
called Broken Vows. And then there is this book
about Harold Wilson called What a nice way to celebrate 100
years since he was born. And finally this book about Disraeli
called The Novel Politician. If you want the insider account
of the last government, how about Coalition by the former
Liberal Democrat If you want to get really insidery,
how about the Black Door? It is all about how prime ministers
have interacted with 100 years since the Easter
uprising in Ireland. If you want to know about that,
Fearghal McGarry has drawn on 1700 If you want to visit the battlefield
of the Somme, Major and Mrs Holt have written
the definitive guide of where to go. If you fancy something
historical but a bit lighter, All about the epic task of keeping
Britain fed in the Second World War. I love visiting friends
in their posh mansions, and now you can read about it
in a book called The Long weekend: Life in the English Country
House Between The Wars. And if you can't bear the idea
of being away from Westminster, don't worry, you could always
read Mr Barry's War, all about rebuilding parliament
after it burnt down in 1834, or my colleague Ben Wright's book
about politics and alcohol. And Keith Simpson joins
us now to tell us more He's moved a branch of Waterstones
into the studio, have you read all of them? No, but a fair number. What
recommendations? I would start, not necessarily on the beach, but Nick
Timothy's Our Joe, Joseph Chamberlain's Conservative legacy,
Nick Timothy wrote this for the Conservative history group and he is
now the joint Chief of staff with Theresa May. You can see parts of
this went into her speech at Birmingham and then her speech
outside number ten. You will see a template for government under
Theresa May? I think you will. It is about what Joseph chamber and was
doing in Birmingham, to alleviate the lot of the people at the bottom
of the social ladder -- Joseph Chamberlain was doing in Birmingham.
You can see this has influenced her. It is also short, it would be a good
one to start with. There are some pictures. At the lighter end, a
wonderful book called the long weekend, life in the end this
country house between the wars and he combines the stories of amazingly
eccentric people. One of these country houses, they needed to put
wiring and the owner refused to have the floor pulled up, and they got
round it by putting a dead rabbit at one end and a ferret and they tied
to the ferret a string and the wire, and I'm not making that up. I
imagine that was very smelly. Looking at the list, as I did. It is
quite heavy. Even by your standards, quite a heavy list of books in terms
of content. It is serious, part and parcel of the time we are living in,
we are in a serious mood and Theresa May is a very serious politician and
Jeremy Corbyn is, as well. If someone else would like to produce
another list. The Lady Whipp said she was going to be choose a list of
chick lit but she has not got round to it. No one is going to compete
against you. What Angel fancy? The Nick Timothy Burke. -- what takes
your fancy? There are very few speeches from sick terry macro, but
we know Nick Timothy is probably more influential than any adviser in
the direction of government because she trusts so few people -- there
are very few speeches from Theresa May. What about for you Steve? The
Joe Chamberlain one and maybe the Harold Wilson won, because Harold
Wilson won a referendum on Europe in 1975 and he knew how to win. Maybe
you should have read that before the referendum. Maybe David Cameron
should. He knew how to win elections and keep his party at gully -- keep
his party united, skills which Theresa May and whoever leads Labour
will require. Any laughs? Yes, this one. I have stolen a review copy
from the Spectator. If you are a Scottish right-winger like me, this
is wonderful. That might be a niche market. There are a few others. All
reading this on the beach in the summer. It was funny comedy, sage
and with Ken Clarke. -- it was funny, the conversation with Ken
Clarke. I have put some books on the list, including Ken Clarke's memoirs
which is coming out in time for the party conference, and Denis
Healey's, he has a broad hinterland, you have him coming out, Ed Balls's
memoir and a view of politics, just in time for the Labour Party. The
title of his book? Putting the boot in. LAUGHTER
Actually, I can't remember. If I was a Labour member, there is a
biography of Clement Attlee coming out in time for the Labour Party
conference. There's just time before we go
to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was what did Nick Clegg
spend two says and nearly ?8,000 doing to show that he could be fun
during the last election campaign? A) Go to a theme park
in a baseball cap C) Film his own version
of a pop video Or D) Erect a 'Cleggstone'
in his back garden. It has got to be the pop video. It
is. But we have not seen it, of course.
That's all for today, and that's all from the Daily
We'll be back when Parliament returns on Monday 5th September -
Jo Coburn is joined by the editor of the Spectator Magazine, Fraser Nelson, and political commentator Steve Richards. They look at the prospects for Theresa May's government with Conservative MP Mark Field and discuss the Labour leadership contest with Labour MP Kerry McCarthy.
Matthew Elliott from Vote Leave reveals why he thinks his campaign was a success, and Liberal Democrat peer Baroness Hussein-Ece gives her thoughts on the situation in Turkey.
Conservative MP Keith Simpson recommends what books MPs should be taking with them on their summer holidays.