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Welcome to this BBC News Special on the Chancellor's Autumn Statement. | :00:32. | :00:40. | |
Forgive the sound of my voice. I have plenty of lozenges to get us | :00:41. | :00:46. | |
through. Today's Autumn Statement is the | :00:47. | :00:55. | |
first financial set-piece since Britain decided to leave | :00:56. | :00:57. | |
the European Union The new Chancellor says he wants | :00:58. | :00:59. | |
the country to be "match fit" for the opportunities | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
and challenges ahead. I'm in poverties mouth, one of the | :01:04. | :01:10. | |
key industrial hub on the south koe.s I will be talking to | :01:11. | :01:13. | |
businesses here, large and small about what they make of the | :01:14. | :01:15. | |
Chancellor's businesses here, large and small | :01:16. | :01:17. | |
about what they make of the Chancellor's statementp | :01:18. | :01:19. | |
I'll be responding to your e-mails, texts and tweets about what the | :01:20. | :01:23. | |
Autumn Statement means for you and your family. I'm in the what the of | :01:24. | :01:29. | |
the City of London there.s' been market volitility ever since the | :01:30. | :01:32. | |
referendum. How will the same markets respond today? And I'm house | :01:33. | :01:35. | |
Parliament getting the thoughts of politicians from the major parties | :01:36. | :01:39. | |
and their assessment of the new Chancellor's performance. | :01:40. | :01:47. | |
And all that over the course of the next four hours here on BBC2 | :01:48. | :01:50. | |
and we're also joined by viewers on the BBC News Channel. | :01:51. | :01:53. | |
With me throughout are the BBC's political | :01:54. | :01:54. | |
and our economics editor, Kamal Ahmed. | :01:55. | :02:00. | |
Well, Philip Hammond left Number 11 Downing Street just | :02:01. | :02:04. | |
He says the public finances face a "sharp challenge" | :02:05. | :02:10. | |
and that he wants to make the economy "watertight". | :02:11. | :02:12. | |
His boss in Number Ten says she wants a country | :02:13. | :02:18. | |
that works for everyone, in particular those people "just | :02:19. | :02:23. | |
But with growth next year expected to be lower then previously | :02:24. | :02:30. | |
forecast, how will Mr Hammond be able to meet these twin challenges? | :02:31. | :02:36. | |
Well, the last time a Chancellor stood at the Despatch Box to deliver | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
a financial statement, it was a chap called George Osborne | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
Remember him? No giggling at the back. | :02:44. | :02:54. | |
All the forecasts back in March assumed we would be staying | :02:55. | :02:57. | |
Britain will be stronger, safer and better off, | :02:58. | :03:07. | |
possible scenarios, which could, possibly, | :03:08. | :03:16. | |
The British people have spoken and the answer is - we're out. | :03:17. | :03:24. | |
I think the country requires fresh leadership. | :03:25. | :03:45. | |
We don't see any need for an emergency Budget. | :03:46. | :03:48. | |
I expect to make an Autumn Statement in the usual way. | :03:49. | :03:59. | |
We are ready to take whatever steps are necessary to protect this | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
We are going to go through a period of volitility now. | :04:03. | :04:28. | |
The UK economy grew faster than expected in the three months | :04:29. | :04:31. | |
I've been here for 25 years and I hope it's going to be | :04:32. | :04:49. | |
A reminder of some of the remarkable things that have been going on this | :04:50. | :05:16. | |
year alone. Laura, in the run-up to this Autumn Statement, he get the | :05:17. | :05:19. | |
impression there was a the bit of, how should I put it, bargaining | :05:20. | :05:25. | |
between Number 10 Downing Street and Number 11? Indeed. Classic tension, | :05:26. | :05:29. | |
how account Treasury make Downing Street's rhetoric add up to reality. | :05:30. | :05:36. | |
Repeatedly May hae has made her sell to the British public that she wants | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
to stand up for people who are finding it hard it get by, the | :05:41. | :05:44. | |
Treasury, however, despite everything that has changed, all the | :05:45. | :05:50. | |
uncertainty is focussed on how to pare back spending. Phil Hammond has | :05:51. | :05:56. | |
a more relaxed approach to get the deficit down but don't be under any | :05:57. | :05:59. | |
illusion, we are still in hard times. So Number 10, and Number 1 | :06:00. | :06:08. | |
#1, I think it would be an overexaggeration to say daggers | :06:09. | :06:11. | |
drawn, but there is still tension. We are going to look at what has | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
been proposed, not what ministers talk b the giveaways, the briefing | :06:17. | :06:19. | |
that comes out, but the takeaways in the afternoon. And perhaps the | :06:20. | :06:24. | |
Treasury now not as around as it was under Gordon Brown or George | :06:25. | :06:27. | |
Osborne? Absolutely. It is one of the biggest changes in this new | :06:28. | :06:31. | |
administration. David Cameron and George Osborne and before that, | :06:32. | :06:35. | |
Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, who's relationship was different, but in | :06:36. | :06:39. | |
terms of having two big alpha beasts around the Cabinet table was the | :06:40. | :06:43. | |
same. We had the two duets who were almost as powerful as each other, | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
George Osborne and David Cameron used to basically preagree | :06:48. | :06:49. | |
everything between the two of them before the rest of Government had a | :06:50. | :06:52. | |
chance to get in the room. Things are very different now. Number 11 is | :06:53. | :06:58. | |
one of the Prime Minister's ministries, rather than being part | :06:59. | :07:04. | |
of this, sort of super-power cupel. Interesting -- couple. | :07:05. | :07:07. | |
Interestingly, Phil Hammond started off thinking that's how it should | :07:08. | :07:10. | |
be, he started thinking that the Treasury should be a finance | :07:11. | :07:13. | |
department, he is the chief finance officer in a business but in terms | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
of politics, as things have got going I'm in the so sure everyone at | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
the Treasury is as happy at being a bit less important. He seems relaxed | :07:23. | :07:26. | |
#6789d we have a picture of him -- he seems relaxed. We have a picture | :07:27. | :07:30. | |
of him reading his own Autumn Statement, that clearly taken on the | :07:31. | :07:34. | |
run, not in anyway a posed picture for the media! He has a semi-on his | :07:35. | :07:41. | |
face, which we don't often see, probably realising the ludicrous | :07:42. | :07:46. | |
nature of these pictures but he has this uncertainty of the consequences | :07:47. | :07:51. | |
of Brexit next year. That's a real difficult problem. It is a hugely | :07:52. | :07:57. | |
difficult problem. And, as everything with this Government, | :07:58. | :07:59. | |
that's the backdrop to the lot. You know, they don't want to be defined | :08:00. | :08:03. | |
by Brexit but like it or not, that's the backdrop to the lot and whatever | :08:04. | :08:11. | |
measures the Treasury come forward with, everybody knows, the probably | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
biggest headline will be how bad the outlook looks, in terms of the | :08:17. | :08:19. | |
economy. Worth remembering, though n recent months, the Treasury has been | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
proved wrong in terms of what they predicted for the immediate | :08:24. | :08:26. | |
aftermath of the referendum vote. So, as ever, you have to have a | :08:27. | :08:31. | |
pretty heavy dose of salt in terms of the forecasts. Absolutely: | :08:32. | :08:37. | |
So that's the political backdrop to today. | :08:38. | :08:39. | |
A key part of the Chancellor's statement will be the new set | :08:40. | :08:44. | |
of independent forecasts provided by the Office for Budget | :08:45. | :08:46. | |
The last set in March were predicated on official | :08:47. | :08:52. | |
Government policy which, at the time, was to remain | :08:53. | :08:56. | |
Official Government policy is now to leave the EU. | :08:57. | :09:05. | |
So, Kamal, what should we be looking out for? | :09:06. | :09:07. | |
No change really, there. Starting off, let's take all forecasts with a | :09:08. | :09:14. | |
degree of scepticism, I think, they are a path, a possible journey, only | :09:15. | :09:17. | |
a possible journey, other things could happen. But let's start but | :09:18. | :09:22. | |
looking they deficit protections. -- projections. | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
That's what the Government spends over what it earns - | :09:28. | :09:30. | |
These are the forecasts from the Office for | :09:31. | :09:33. | |
Budget Responsibility, the independent economic watchdog, | :09:34. | :09:34. | |
published at the time of the Budget in March. | :09:35. | :09:36. | |
They show that budget coming down every year, pretty sharply. 55 | :09:37. | :09:43. | |
billion, in the year of borrowing. The important figure | :09:44. | :09:54. | |
is that last one. George Osborne said he wanted | :09:55. | :09:56. | |
to achieve a budget surplus by 2020, that moment when the Government | :09:57. | :09:59. | |
starts earning more than it spends. Since then we've had the referendum, | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
the fall in sterling and a downgrade That has changed the numbers we | :10:04. | :10:15. | |
expect the OBR to publish today. You can see the Institute for Fiscal | :10:16. | :10:18. | |
Studies forecast of what the OBR's forecast might be. It is a forecast | :10:19. | :10:22. | |
of a forecast but it shows that although borrow something falling | :10:23. | :10:25. | |
every year, city, look at that 2019-20 figure now. It is still | :10:26. | :10:33. | |
borrowing. Still a deficit by 2019-20. | :10:34. | :10:53. | |
Of it is pro-Brexit but there are other problems, the Chinese economy, | :10:54. | :11:01. | |
etc. But what is the Government going to do now for hitting a dead | :11:02. | :11:06. | |
lain and what deadline for the books will it set? And it'll be a small | :11:07. | :11:12. | |
percentage of GDP, below the mass rate of 3%. But am I right in | :11:13. | :11:16. | |
thinking some of the reason for the slower deficit reduction, one of the | :11:17. | :11:19. | |
reasons is that the forecasters are assuming lower economic growth? Yes, | :11:20. | :11:22. | |
that's right. So the level of economic growth in a country is | :11:23. | :11:25. | |
absolutely linked to the public finances. The better growth, the | :11:26. | :11:29. | |
better the public finances, because you get better tax receipts, in | :11:30. | :11:33. | |
particular. So, today we will get the new economic growth forecast | :11:34. | :11:36. | |
from the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR basis its | :11:37. | :11:45. | |
forecast on Government policy. It'll be interesting how much that changes | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
now that the Government policy is to leave the Budget urge about. Letsd' | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
remind ourselves what the OBR said in March 2016, George Osborne's last | :11:55. | :11:57. | |
budget. They suggested that growth this year would be 2%. Now, as you | :11:58. | :12:03. | |
say, Andrew, actually, the economy has done better than many people | :12:04. | :12:07. | |
expected, despite the referendum vote. There is a lot of momentum in | :12:08. | :12:12. | |
the economy. And the Bank of England, in November, actually | :12:13. | :12:14. | |
upgraded the growth forecast for the year, which is good for the public | :12:15. | :12:17. | |
finances. After having downgraded them Yes, so | :12:18. | :12:26. | |
actually saying the economy this year would be performing better. | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
But, as you say, Andrew, since then, economic forecasts have become | :12:31. | :12:33. | |
gloomier. Some sand Brexit. The majority of that is because they | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
believe Brexit and uncertainty will lead to lower growth. Let's look at | :12:38. | :12:44. | |
suggestions for next year. The OBR in 2006 said growth next year would | :12:45. | :12:48. | |
be 2.2%. But let's lack at what the Bank of England now believes next | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
year will look at. They are saying quite a sharp downgrade, 1.4%. Of | :12:53. | :12:57. | |
course, as ever, these are just forecasts, not definite facts that | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
will happen. The Bank of England is now suggesting that overall, by the | :13:02. | :13:09. | |
end of 2018, the economy will be 2.5% smaller than it would have been | :13:10. | :13:13. | |
if we'd voted to stay in the European Union. I think we always | :13:14. | :13:17. | |
need to say, though, Andrew, that it is not just Brexit, necessarily, | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
there are other issues with the UK economy that are not connected to us | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
leaving the European Union. Kemal, what about inflation? We | :13:26. | :13:28. | |
haven't had much of that recently? We haven't. We have had a benign | :13:29. | :13:34. | |
inflation situation in the UK, really since two years after the | :13:35. | :13:39. | |
financial crisis of 2008-9. That situation is changing slowly. So | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
let's have a look at that. This year, inflation at the moment is | :13:45. | :13:52. | |
0.9%. That actually was a decline. But, the path is upwards and, the | :13:53. | :13:57. | |
important bit today is we will see the predictions for inflation for | :13:58. | :14:00. | |
next year. And this is where prices and the voters might start feeling | :14:01. | :14:05. | |
the impact in their pocket. So, before the referendum in June, this | :14:06. | :14:10. | |
is the Treasury's estimate of inflation for next year, 1.9%. An | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
increase, but relatively modest. Right, let's look at what the Bank | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
of England then has suggested. This, now, since the referendum result, | :14:20. | :14:23. | |
since the stall in sterling and the fall in sterling has increased the | :14:24. | :14:26. | |
costing of food and fuel imports into the UK. They believe, now, | :14:27. | :14:33. | |
inflation will go up to 2.7%. Quite a rapid rise on that 0.9%. And that | :14:34. | :14:39. | |
really raises this squeezed living standard issue, because wage | :14:40. | :14:42. | |
inflation in the UK at the moment is running just about 2%. If inflation | :14:43. | :14:47. | |
starts going above, that real incomes start falling. OK. We are | :14:48. | :14:54. | |
going to give away a Daily Politics' mug for anybody who can tell us when | :14:55. | :14:59. | |
the Bank of England got a inflation forecast back? Only one. All we can | :15:00. | :15:01. | |
afford, it is tough times. Well, what's the story | :15:02. | :15:05. | |
on the financial markets? Our Business Editor, | :15:06. | :15:07. | |
Simon Jack, is in Markets can react quite violently to | :15:08. | :15:17. | |
economic pronouncements. I was stood in this spot when this happened, | :15:18. | :15:21. | |
post-referendum, the fall in the value of sterling and it has | :15:22. | :15:24. | |
continued to be pretty volatile and moved down. That was a big surprise, | :15:25. | :15:29. | |
the markets got that forecast catastrophically wrong. Today the | :15:30. | :15:33. | |
question is how much scope there is for surprise. We are expecting | :15:34. | :15:38. | |
slower growth, lower tax receipts, which means higher borrowing for the | :15:39. | :15:42. | |
government. The more you borrow, the worse credit you are, the worse your | :15:43. | :15:46. | |
credit rating is. And we have seen the price, the cost of government | :15:47. | :15:52. | |
borrowing begin to creep up lately. So what are markets expecting today, | :15:53. | :15:55. | |
what capacities do they have for shock? Big picture, you are braced | :15:56. | :16:03. | |
for this, aren't you? Braced for some pretty bad news. Certainly | :16:04. | :16:06. | |
braced for bad news, economic growth will be lower next year than had | :16:07. | :16:11. | |
hitherto been forecast. Sterling is a lot weaker. We will see the impact | :16:12. | :16:16. | |
of the inflationary effects of lower sterling come through. That will eat | :16:17. | :16:21. | |
into people's spending power. So, we know that. We know that we are going | :16:22. | :16:26. | |
to be borrowing more. And that means there's less room the Chancellor to | :16:27. | :16:31. | |
give giveaways to the public to ease some of those concerns of lower | :16:32. | :16:35. | |
growth, what that's going to mean for the man in the street. Before we | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
talk about what he may or may not do, what he's got up his sleeve, | :16:41. | :16:44. | |
some people may say we've had gloomy economic forecast before, we were | :16:45. | :16:48. | |
promised a nightmare after the referendum, but in fact we are on | :16:49. | :16:51. | |
target to hit pre-referendum growth targets for 2016 - 2017. You are | :16:52. | :16:57. | |
absolutely right that the forecasts for this year's economic activity | :16:58. | :17:03. | |
have been remarkably robust. What we haven't really seen is the impact of | :17:04. | :17:07. | |
the decision to leave the EU. We are still part of it. It hasn't really | :17:08. | :17:13. | |
weighed on consumer spending. Confidence is still reasonably | :17:14. | :17:16. | |
robust. What we are likely to see into the future is more of the real | :17:17. | :17:22. | |
impact as we trigger article 50 and we see consumers react to that | :17:23. | :17:26. | |
higher inflation. Within the stock market there have been some movers, | :17:27. | :17:30. | |
some big estate agents have seen their shares it as there is this | :17:31. | :17:34. | |
measure to ban them charging tenants for extra fees, so we have seen some | :17:35. | :17:39. | |
activity, what's been going on? That's right, there's always a | :17:40. | :17:42. | |
little bit of leaking of what will be announced by the Chancellor had | :17:43. | :17:47. | |
12:30pm. One of the things that he's announced if this move to stop | :17:48. | :17:52. | |
tenants having to pay the fees, and to push that onto either the estate | :17:53. | :17:56. | |
agents or the landlords. So that has hit the estate agents this morning. | :17:57. | :18:02. | |
Thanks, Sue. We'll be catching up with you again. Countrywide and | :18:03. | :18:06. | |
Foxton is both seeing sharp falls in share prices and we are seeing some | :18:07. | :18:10. | |
market reaction to what we are expecting in the budget. The pound | :18:11. | :18:15. | |
is very stable at the moment. Does it have the capacity to shock? Let's | :18:16. | :18:17. | |
see. Of course when the share price of | :18:18. | :18:24. | |
estate agent falls, the nation is in mourning. What about the wide | :18:25. | :18:27. | |
economy? Jo Coburn is in Portsmouth for us | :18:28. | :18:29. | |
today, gauging business reaction Yes, Andrew, I'm a Land Rover BA | :18:30. | :18:39. | |
are, here where they are building this rather amazing catamaran which | :18:40. | :18:42. | |
is going to be ready to hit the waters around Bermuda by next | :18:43. | :18:48. | |
spring. All sounds very exotic. Let's talk to the man who runs the | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
show, Martin Whitmarsh. The Chancellor has said he wants to make | :18:54. | :18:56. | |
the economy watertight, excuse the pun, in the event of choppy waters | :18:57. | :19:01. | |
ahead. What would you like to hear from him? We don't like some | :19:02. | :19:05. | |
certainty post Brexit but what we mustn't do in the clamour for | :19:06. | :19:08. | |
certainty is compromise the government. They've got to get the | :19:09. | :19:12. | |
best deal they can for the economy. In the meanwhile be only thing that | :19:13. | :19:17. | |
we can have that encourages investment in RND, any tax break | :19:18. | :19:23. | |
enables companies to have the confidence to invest, that would be | :19:24. | :19:28. | |
the most positive thing we could have delivered this afternoon. Is | :19:29. | :19:32. | |
there evidence that businesses are holding onto their cash and waiting | :19:33. | :19:36. | |
before they actually use or invest in projects? I think all of the | :19:37. | :19:41. | |
volatility post Brexit, the exchange rate, that has caused everyone a bit | :19:42. | :19:47. | |
of a slow up. We sense it in our partners and these big companies | :19:48. | :19:50. | |
that invest in our programme. They are just wondering what direction we | :19:51. | :19:53. | |
are going to go and how they conserve a bit of cash through | :19:54. | :19:58. | |
whatever challenges they have. We've got to live with it. It's how it is. | :19:59. | :20:02. | |
In the meanwhile anything that could stabilise that, give us some | :20:03. | :20:07. | |
confidence that we can invest and certainly have our partners invest | :20:08. | :20:09. | |
in research and development, marketing and infrastructure. Martin | :20:10. | :20:14. | |
Whitmarsh, thank you very much. And that is the theme of the people we | :20:15. | :20:18. | |
will be talking to down here. While they may see the Brexit world as an | :20:19. | :20:22. | |
opportunity, they would like to see some certainty so they can make | :20:23. | :20:26. | |
decisions about investment for the future, or investing in new staff, | :20:27. | :20:30. | |
trying to recruit people with the right sorts of skills. I'll be | :20:31. | :20:33. | |
talking to businesses here in Portsmouth large and small about | :20:34. | :20:38. | |
what they are looking for from Philip Hammond. You run an online | :20:39. | :20:46. | |
cashmere company, wearing one of their beautiful scarves. What would | :20:47. | :20:49. | |
you I to hear from Philip Hammond? The obvious things like the | :20:50. | :20:56. | |
alliance, increasing or reducing the VAT, and corporation tax being | :20:57. | :21:01. | |
reduced. And then we need a plan. There are lots of big companies out | :21:02. | :21:04. | |
there that have teams of people that are managing the whole pre-empting | :21:05. | :21:09. | |
of Brexit. We are not, there are ten of us. Working away and not knowing | :21:10. | :21:15. | |
what to do next. I've got a January strategy meeting. I'd like to know | :21:16. | :21:19. | |
what countries that we are looking at to export to. So at the moment we | :21:20. | :21:24. | |
are doing 50% to a domestic audience, selling online, 50% of our | :21:25. | :21:29. | |
business is export. Has that been helped by the fall in the value of | :21:30. | :21:33. | |
the pound? Massively, the Americans are buying from us in droves at the | :21:34. | :21:39. | |
moment. Around Brexit there was nervousness, some brand GB | :21:40. | :21:42. | |
uncertainty and that did not help us. That was the only month | :21:43. | :21:45. | |
Marseille when we saw a dip in growth. But we kind of need to know | :21:46. | :21:49. | |
basically what's going to happen next. I don't spec them to show | :21:50. | :21:53. | |
their hand completely but it would be nice to know whether we should | :21:54. | :21:58. | |
continue targeting export or rein it in and look at the domestic market. | :21:59. | :22:05. | |
Thank you. Let's hear from our personal finance expert with what | :22:06. | :22:09. | |
she has for the day here in Portsmouth. We already have some | :22:10. | :22:13. | |
details from the Treasury about what you can expect from the Chancellor | :22:14. | :22:15. | |
which will affect your personal finances. He's going to reduce the | :22:16. | :22:20. | |
rate at which benefits are withdrawn for people when they start work. At | :22:21. | :22:25. | |
the moment if you get universal credit, then once you reach a | :22:26. | :22:29. | |
certain amount of earnings, 65p per every ?1 you burn is taken away, | :22:30. | :22:36. | |
that's going to go down to 63p. The National Living Wage paid to people | :22:37. | :22:40. | |
aged 25 and over will also be increased in April from ?7.20 to | :22:41. | :22:47. | |
?7.50. Although that is lower than other people out. A decrease in fuel | :22:48. | :22:53. | |
duty and passenger air duty may also be looked at, making the cost of | :22:54. | :22:57. | |
holidays cheap. You can get in touch in many different ways. | :22:58. | :23:05. | |
Andrew. Thanks, Ruth. Joanna Gosling is outside the House of Commons. | :23:06. | :23:19. | |
Thank you. With me Oliver Dowden, Tory MP and Jonathan Reynolds, the | :23:20. | :23:24. | |
shadow economic Secretary. Thank you both for joining us. Oliver Dowden, | :23:25. | :23:27. | |
when the Chancellor talks about eye watering Lee high public debt | :23:28. | :23:31. | |
levels, can he afford to be doing anything intimate of helping people? | :23:32. | :23:36. | |
It is important the Chancellor sticks with a plan that has been | :23:37. | :23:40. | |
working. We have reduced borrowing by two thirds, created 3 million | :23:41. | :23:44. | |
jobs. I want to see him continue to do that. He is not sticking with the | :23:45. | :23:48. | |
plan, is he? The plan has changed. The original plan was to be in | :23:49. | :23:52. | |
surplus by the end of the parliament, that has gone. It | :23:53. | :23:55. | |
continues to be the plan to reduce the deficit year on year. It is | :23:56. | :23:59. | |
important that we continue to have that confidence. At the same time | :24:00. | :24:03. | |
their escape, because we have taken difficult decisions through the last | :24:04. | :24:07. | |
Parliament, to show some flexibility so we are properly prepared for the | :24:08. | :24:11. | |
challenges that face us in years ahead. I'm particularly interested | :24:12. | :24:18. | |
in what the Chancellor will be doing around infrastructure, making sure | :24:19. | :24:20. | |
we've got the roads and railways in place, so we match fit and ready for | :24:21. | :24:23. | |
when Britain leaves the European Union. How do you see the challenges | :24:24. | :24:27. | |
facing the Chancellor? The first plan was to clear the deficit before | :24:28. | :24:31. | |
the end the last Parliament, clearly that hasn't happened and we've had | :24:32. | :24:35. | |
six wasted years. We need a plan to make sure this company is | :24:36. | :24:40. | |
successful. Post Brexit that is more challenging. It is not about | :24:41. | :24:42. | |
gimmicks and bits of money here and there, it is about a serious new set | :24:43. | :24:46. | |
of fiscal rules that allow investment to take place. Bring down | :24:47. | :24:50. | |
the day-to-day spending to equal the taxes coming in, but do the rules so | :24:51. | :24:56. | |
investment can take place. When you say six wasted years in terms of | :24:57. | :24:58. | |
paying down the deficit, and looking ahead to more uncertainty, what is | :24:59. | :25:04. | |
your answer? It sounds like more spending. Not spending on the costs | :25:05. | :25:12. | |
of failure. What would you spend on? Bridges, railways, the energy | :25:13. | :25:16. | |
system, broadband connections. But we want fiscal rules that will allow | :25:17. | :25:20. | |
people to do that. On the measures the Chancellor could introduce, | :25:21. | :25:26. | |
there has been lots of talk about Jams, the big news today seems to be | :25:27. | :25:31. | |
that cuts to universal credit will go ahead, the working poor who go | :25:32. | :25:35. | |
out and earn a low wage will be hit. Fiscal rules, in terms of how you | :25:36. | :25:40. | |
diverged, just describe what you would identify the fiscal rules to | :25:41. | :25:45. | |
be in a nutshell. Labour would like a focus on the deficit, the things | :25:46. | :25:51. | |
the government spends money on, but excluding investment. So you take | :25:52. | :25:56. | |
out, you don't borrow for day-to-day spending. What would the target | :25:57. | :26:00. | |
beyond cutting the deficit? Over a five-year rolling period, you have | :26:01. | :26:04. | |
to get it down on day-to-day spending, but why include investment | :26:05. | :26:10. | |
spending? Does that add up? Jonathan talks very reasonably about this but | :26:11. | :26:16. | |
his boss, the Shadow Chancellor, is proposing ?500 billion of additional | :26:17. | :26:19. | |
spending, an extraordinary about of money. There is no fiscal | :26:20. | :26:24. | |
discipline. The contrast with us, because we made those difficult | :26:25. | :26:26. | |
decisions to the Parliament, it gives us scope to have more | :26:27. | :26:30. | |
flexibility as we face Brexit to invest in infrastructure, and help | :26:31. | :26:35. | |
struggling people to get by. To be clear on what Oliver has said, | :26:36. | :26:38. | |
Oliver is adding capital investment over ten years and adding an extra | :26:39. | :26:48. | |
?250 billion. Your national infrastructure plan is for ?483 | :26:49. | :26:55. | |
billion. Capital spending plus leveraging from the private markets | :26:56. | :26:58. | |
for a national investment bank. All of that spending is against the | :26:59. | :27:02. | |
backdrop, with a figure of ?1.6 trillion of UK debt, the picture | :27:03. | :27:09. | |
will just get worse, won't it? That's the situation we are in. When | :27:10. | :27:13. | |
they said we had to bring the deficit down in one Parliament, they | :27:14. | :27:19. | |
ignored economic advice and this is what has happened. We are right out | :27:20. | :27:25. | |
of time. Thank you both. STUDIO: Thanks. A lot of talk of fiscal | :27:26. | :27:32. | |
rules, there. Mr Hammond may have some fiscal rules of his own. There | :27:33. | :27:35. | |
have been 12 fiscal rules since 1997, ten of them have been broken. | :27:36. | :27:44. | |
There is expert analysis on the website. | :27:45. | :27:49. | |
And if you're on Twitter you can join the conversation | :27:50. | :27:52. | |
There's our live shot of Big Ben, there, two minutes to 12. Very soon | :27:53. | :28:02. | |
we'll be going over as we always do on Wednesday to the House of Commons | :28:03. | :28:04. | |
for prime ministers questions. And that will be followed | :28:05. | :28:10. | |
by the chancellor's statement. Always a beautiful picture of | :28:11. | :28:18. | |
Westminster, there. Laura, a difficult one for the Chancellor | :28:19. | :28:23. | |
because he has to base what he tells us today on forecasts lovably | :28:24. | :28:28. | |
roughly the consensus forecast that we heard from the city, from people | :28:29. | :28:34. | |
who, in the past, have been wrong in their forecasts. Indeed, and on | :28:35. | :28:38. | |
these big set piece days when you get the Treasury's big statements, | :28:39. | :28:42. | |
even though they use independent numbers from the Office for Budget | :28:43. | :28:46. | |
Responsibility, he is to do and then knowing his audience is deeply | :28:47. | :28:49. | |
sceptical about what is being put forward. He has to base it on that. | :28:50. | :28:54. | |
Particularly for the Treasury, who take quite a downbeat view on what | :28:55. | :28:57. | |
the uncertainty around Brexit will mean, it is extreme the difficult | :28:58. | :29:02. | |
for them to stand up and not sound like the world is about to come to | :29:03. | :29:07. | |
an end, but at the same time... One of the interesting things about | :29:08. | :29:10. | |
Philip Hammond has been in the last few months, he is certainly not a | :29:11. | :29:15. | |
flashy politician, not somebody who enjoys hogging the limelight. But in | :29:16. | :29:19. | |
his own downbeat way he has had some quite extraordinary things. He has | :29:20. | :29:23. | |
said that we are in for a roller-coaster, he has said debt is | :29:24. | :29:27. | |
at eye watering levels. How does he calibrate that with wanting to | :29:28. | :29:31. | |
present a steady, cautious course which is what we are all told that | :29:32. | :29:37. | |
he will put forward. I think the issue will be when and if the | :29:38. | :29:41. | |
government will balance its books. It has been interesting that Theresa | :29:42. | :29:44. | |
May has talked about still hitting a surplus, ie the government earns | :29:45. | :29:49. | |
more than it spends. Philip Hammond has been much more careful, he has | :29:50. | :29:52. | |
only talked about balancing the books. However it happens, and you | :29:53. | :29:57. | |
are right, forecasts are only that, but they do show a pathway. And | :29:58. | :30:02. | |
although the direct, precise numbers may not be hit in the end, they show | :30:03. | :30:08. | |
this kind of journey that the country's economy is on, and Philip | :30:09. | :30:13. | |
Hammond has to take on board what that forecast says. What will be | :30:14. | :30:16. | |
fascinating is what the Office for Budget Responsibility says about | :30:17. | :30:21. | |
Brexit, how much of the effect on the economy, if there is an effect | :30:22. | :30:25. | |
on the year, me, as we leave the European Union, is down to the | :30:26. | :30:30. | |
issue, and how much is it down to all the other issues that the | :30:31. | :30:33. | |
economy is grappling with anyway. That will be one of the key issues | :30:34. | :30:39. | |
to look for, what the OBR says about Brexit, what the government needs to | :30:40. | :30:41. | |
borrow extra to account for that, and other issues, and also what the | :30:42. | :30:46. | |
overall debt position will be. The Treasury is certainly clear that | :30:47. | :30:51. | |
that debt position is going to be a very, very big number that is going | :30:52. | :30:52. | |
to be pretty frightening. And it'll not be the headline that | :30:53. | :31:04. | |
everybody gets, it'll be the Budget bubbling, their big numbers that | :31:05. | :31:07. | |
will dominate the debate. Well, let's go straight over to the House | :31:08. | :31:09. | |
of Commons for Prime Minister's Questions. | :31:10. | :31:12. | |
Number one, please, Mr Speaker. Mr Speaker, this morning I had | :31:13. | :31:15. | |
meetings with ministerial colleagues and others n addition to my duties | :31:16. | :31:19. | |
in this House, I shall have further such meetings later | :31:20. | :31:20. | |
in this House, I shall have further such meetings later today. | :31:21. | :31:24. | |
Thank you, Mr Speaker. A report recently produced by a number of | :31:25. | :31:30. | |
organisations, including guy Gingerbread and sit zeens advice in | :31:31. | :31:33. | |
Fife found one-third of families that should have been claiming child | :31:34. | :31:37. | |
maintenance support did not apply but a major barrier to application | :31:38. | :31:41. | |
was the ?20 application fee and that the 4% collection fee had a serious | :31:42. | :31:47. | |
impact on family budgets. Will the Prime Minister undertake to review | :31:48. | :31:51. | |
these unfair charges? The issues of trying to ensure that those who are | :31:52. | :31:56. | |
responsible for children tally pay for their children when a family has | :31:57. | :32:01. | |
broken up has been one that is a long-standing question which this | :32:02. | :32:04. | |
House has addressed. There have been various ways of dealing with it | :32:05. | :32:07. | |
through the agency that has been responsible. I think it is right | :32:08. | :32:09. | |
that the changes have that been introduced are on a more level basis | :32:10. | :32:13. | |
and that more people are able to access the support that they need as | :32:14. | :32:20. | |
a result. The Government is rightly focussed on economic growth, jobs | :32:21. | :32:23. | |
and prosperity, something that all of us on these benches can get | :32:24. | :32:29. | |
behind. With that in mind, will she back our highly-competitive bid for | :32:30. | :32:40. | |
funding for the north-west relief road in Shrewsbury which will | :32:41. | :32:43. | |
relieve the congestion our town is facing but dove-tail into that | :32:44. | :32:48. | |
narrative I know that relief road has been an issue that is of | :32:49. | :32:51. | |
particular concern to him and a priority for him and has received | :32:52. | :32:56. | |
local backing. I understand the a bid has been put in for feesibility | :32:57. | :33:00. | |
funding so a business case can be prepared for the scheme. What I can | :33:01. | :33:05. | |
say at the moment, the announcement of the successful bids for | :33:06. | :33:08. | |
feasibility funding is expected very shortly indeed. THE SPEAKER: Jeremy | :33:09. | :33:17. | |
Corbyn. Thank you, Mr Speaker. Thank you, Mr Speaker. The Government's | :33:18. | :33:23. | |
sustainability and transformation plans for the National Health | :33:24. | :33:28. | |
Service hide ?22 billion of cuts from our service, according to | :33:29. | :33:34. | |
research by the BMA. That risks and I quote, "Starving services of | :33:35. | :33:37. | |
resources and patients of vital care." That comes from Dr Mark | :33:38. | :33:42. | |
Porter of the BMA. When he calls this process a mess, | :33:43. | :33:49. | |
where is he wrong? The National Health Service is | :33:50. | :33:53. | |
indeed looking for savings within the NHS which will be reinvested in | :33:54. | :34:00. | |
the NHS. And I would remind the right | :34:01. | :34:02. | |
honourable gentleman it is this Government that is providing, not | :34:03. | :34:07. | |
just the ?8 billion of extra funding the NHS requested but ?10 billion of | :34:08. | :34:12. | |
extra funding requested by the National Health Service and the | :34:13. | :34:15. | |
sustainability and transformation plans are being developed at local | :34:16. | :34:19. | |
levels, in the interests of local people by local clinicians. | :34:20. | :34:24. | |
It's very strange the Prime Minister should say, that Mr Speaker, because | :34:25. | :34:30. | |
the Health Select Committee, chaired by the honourable friend the member | :34:31. | :34:36. | |
for Totnes says it is ?4.5 billion, not ?10 billion. There is quite a | :34:37. | :34:40. | |
big difference there. Mr Speaker, part of the reason for the strain on | :34:41. | :34:44. | |
the National Health Service is more than 1 million people are not | :34:45. | :34:46. | |
receiving the social care that they need. As a result of this, there has | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
been an increase in emergency admissions for older patients. | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
Margaret wrote to me this week saying... It's not funny. | :34:56. | :35:07. | |
She described how her 89-year-old mother suffered two falls, leading | :35:08. | :35:11. | |
to hospital admissions, due to the lack of nursing care and went on to | :35:12. | :35:17. | |
say, "My mother is worth more than this." What action will the Prime | :35:18. | :35:23. | |
Minister take to stop the neglect of older people, which ends up forcing | :35:24. | :35:27. | |
them to take A admissions when they should be cared for, at home or | :35:28. | :35:32. | |
in a care home? Well, of course social care is an | :35:33. | :35:36. | |
area of concern and social care is a key issue for many people. That's | :35:37. | :35:40. | |
why the Government has introduced the Better Care Fund and why the | :35:41. | :35:46. | |
Government has introduced the Social Care precept for local authorities | :35:47. | :35:49. | |
and we are encouraged the working together of the health service and | :35:50. | :35:53. | |
local authorities to deal with precisely the issues he has raised | :35:54. | :35:57. | |
on social care and bedblocking. But I will just say this to the right | :35:58. | :36:02. | |
honourable gentleman. We've introduced the Better Fund and | :36:03. | :36:05. | |
social care precept. Let's look at what Labour did in their 13 years. | :36:06. | :36:17. | |
They said they'd deal with social care in the 97 manifesto. Introduced | :36:18. | :36:22. | |
a Royal Commission in 1999. A Greene Paper in 2005. A review in 2006. | :36:23. | :36:33. | |
Another Paper in 2007, and another green Paper in 2009. Three years and | :36:34. | :36:39. | |
they did nothing. Mr Speaker, as the Prime Minister | :36:40. | :36:44. | |
well knows, health spending trebled under the last Labour Government. | :36:45. | :36:54. | |
And the levels of satisfaction with the National Health Service were at | :36:55. | :37:01. | |
their highest, ever, in 2010. This Government's choice was to cut | :37:02. | :37:07. | |
social care by 4.6 billion pounds in the last Parliament. At the same | :37:08. | :37:12. | |
time, as they found the space, shall we say, to cut billions in corporate | :37:13. | :37:19. | |
taxation bills. That means it's affecting patients leaving hospital | :37:20. | :37:24. | |
as well. In the last four years, the number of patients unable to be | :37:25. | :37:28. | |
transferred from hospital, due to the lack of adequate social care, | :37:29. | :37:35. | |
has increased by one-third. Will the Prime Minister ensure her Government | :37:36. | :37:38. | |
guarantees all of our elderly people, the dignity they deserve? | :37:39. | :37:45. | |
I recognise the importance of caring for elderly people and providing | :37:46. | :37:48. | |
them with the dignity that they deserve. He says that this | :37:49. | :37:53. | |
Government has done nothing on social care, I repeat, we have | :37:54. | :37:57. | |
introduced the social care preset, that is being made use of by my | :37:58. | :38:01. | |
local authority and by his local authority. We have also introduced | :38:02. | :38:06. | |
the Better Care Fund. He talks about support for elderly people. Which | :38:07. | :38:11. | |
Government is it that has put the triple lock in place for pensioners, | :38:12. | :38:15. | |
to ensure the largest increase in pensions for elderly people. The | :38:16. | :38:19. | |
precept is a drop in the ocean compared to what is necessary for | :38:20. | :38:21. | |
social care. I will give you an example, Mr | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
Speaker, the whole House I'm sure would have been appalled in the | :38:27. | :38:30. | |
revelations in the BBC Panorama programme this week, showing older | :38:31. | :38:35. | |
people systematically mistreated. The Care Quality Commission's | :38:36. | :38:42. | |
assessment that care homes, run by the Mall, ey Group require | :38:43. | :38:45. | |
improvement and have issued notices. The commission goes on to say that | :38:46. | :38:50. | |
the owner has allowed sfrs to deteriorate further and has "Utterly | :38:51. | :38:53. | |
neglected the duty of care to the residents of these homes." What | :38:54. | :38:57. | |
action is her Government going to take to protect the residents of | :38:58. | :39:04. | |
those homes? The right honourable gentleman raises the issue of the | :39:05. | :39:07. | |
quality of care that is provided in homes and the way in which elderly | :39:08. | :39:10. | |
people are treated. I'm sure everybody is appalled when we see | :39:11. | :39:14. | |
examples of poor and terrible treatment that is be given to | :39:15. | :39:17. | |
elderly and vulnerable people in care homes. What we do about it is | :39:18. | :39:23. | |
ensure that we have the CQC, which is able it step in, which takes | :39:24. | :39:28. | |
action, which has powers to make sure that nobody, nobody in the | :39:29. | :39:31. | |
chain of responsibility is immune from legal accountability but we | :39:32. | :39:35. | |
know that there is more that can be done and that's why the CQC is | :39:36. | :39:40. | |
looking into ways in which it can improve its processes, increase its | :39:41. | :39:43. | |
efficiency. My honourable friend, the minister for community health | :39:44. | :39:48. | |
and care is going to be writing to the CQC shortly, to look at how we | :39:49. | :39:54. | |
can seek to improve what they do. It is the CQC that deals with these | :39:55. | :39:58. | |
issues, we have that in place. Is there more we can do? Yes. And we | :39:59. | :40:03. | |
are doing it. Mr Speaker, the problem seems to be that that home | :40:04. | :40:08. | |
was understaffed and we shouldn't be blamingp often underpaid and | :40:09. | :40:11. | |
hard-pressed care workers, he with should be ensuring there are enough | :40:12. | :40:15. | |
of them, properly paid in all of those homes. There was a serious | :40:16. | :40:18. | |
problem of understaffing and it was the last Labour Government that | :40:19. | :40:27. | |
established the CQC. I think a warning notice is insufficient. We | :40:28. | :40:30. | |
stronger action. Yesterday the Government proposed patients may | :40:31. | :40:34. | |
have to show passports or other ID to access non-emergency health care. | :40:35. | :40:38. | |
Has the Government considered that the impact of this on elderly | :40:39. | :40:43. | |
people? The last census showed us 9.5 million people in this country | :40:44. | :40:49. | |
don't have passports. Rather than distracting people with divisive and | :40:50. | :40:52. | |
impractical policies, could the Prime Minister provide the NHS and | :40:53. | :40:56. | |
social care with the money this it needs to care for the people who | :40:57. | :41:02. | |
need the support? Over the course of this Parliament, the Government will | :41:03. | :41:07. | |
be spending half a trillion pounds on the national health service. The | :41:08. | :41:12. | |
right honourable gentleman asks about a process to ensure that | :41:13. | :41:16. | |
people who are receiving NHS treatment are entitled to receive | :41:17. | :41:21. | |
that NHS treatment. For many years there has been a concern about | :41:22. | :41:26. | |
health tourism, about people turning up in the UK, accessing health | :41:27. | :41:29. | |
services and not paying for them. We want it make sure that those who are | :41:30. | :41:37. | |
entitled to use the services are indeed able to have those free at | :41:38. | :41:41. | |
the point of delivery but we deal with health tourism and those who | :41:42. | :41:44. | |
should be paying for the use of our health service. Mr Speaker, Sir | :41:45. | :41:49. | |
Simon Stevens told us two weeks ago that the next three years are going | :41:50. | :41:54. | |
to be the toughest ever for NHS funding and that 2018 would see | :41:55. | :41:58. | |
health spending per person cut for the first time ever in this country. | :41:59. | :42:05. | |
. The NAO reported that the cost of health tourism is over 100 times | :42:06. | :42:10. | |
less than the ?22 billion of cuts the NHS is facing from this | :42:11. | :42:14. | |
Government. The reality is, Mr Speaker, under this Government, | :42:15. | :42:18. | |
there are 6,000 fewer mental health nurses. There are a record 3.9 | :42:19. | :42:25. | |
million people on NHS waiting lists. All of us who visit A departments | :42:26. | :42:29. | |
know the stress the staff are under and that the waiting time is getting | :42:30. | :42:34. | |
longer and longer and that there are 1 million people in this country not | :42:35. | :42:38. | |
receiving the social care that they need. So, instead of looking for | :42:39. | :42:43. | |
excuses and scapegoats, shouldn't the Prime Minister be ensuring that | :42:44. | :42:47. | |
health and social care is properly resourced and properly funded to | :42:48. | :42:52. | |
take away the stress and fear that people face in old age, over social | :42:53. | :42:57. | |
care and the stress that is placed on our very hard-working NHS and | :42:58. | :43:05. | |
social care staff? Billions of pounds extra into social care | :43:06. | :43:10. | |
through the social care precept and the Better Care Fund. Half a | :43:11. | :43:14. | |
trillion being spented on the National Health Service. A record | :43:15. | :43:17. | |
level of investment in mental health in the National Health Service. THE | :43:18. | :43:23. | |
SPEAKER: Order. Members must not shout down or attempt to shout down | :43:24. | :43:27. | |
the Prime Minister. The question has been asked and it was heard and the | :43:28. | :43:30. | |
answer must be heard. The Prime Minister. | :43:31. | :43:33. | |
Well, there is a fundamental point that the right honourable gentleman | :43:34. | :43:36. | |
refrains from mentioning, and it is this: We can only afford to pay for | :43:37. | :43:42. | |
the National Health Service and for social care if we have a strong | :43:43. | :43:46. | |
economy, creating wealth. And that's precisely what he is going to hear | :43:47. | :43:50. | |
Chancellor of the Exchequer in a few minutes' time. Thank you, Mr | :43:51. | :43:59. | |
Speaker. On the 23rd June, my constituents voted by a margin of | :44:00. | :44:05. | |
62% to 38% to leave the European Union. | :44:06. | :44:14. | |
Many of those people are unhappy and frustrated at what they see are | :44:15. | :44:18. | |
delaying tactics by some remainers who don't seem to understand the | :44:19. | :44:22. | |
meaning of the word democracy. THE SPEAKER: Order, this is very | :44:23. | :44:25. | |
discourteous. The honourable gentleman has a legitimate question | :44:26. | :44:30. | |
and that question and every other question should be fully and with | :44:31. | :44:33. | |
politeness, heard. The honourable gentleman. | :44:34. | :44:39. | |
Thank you, Mr Speaker. I will repeat it. Remainers who | :44:40. | :44:47. | |
don't seem to understand the meaning of the word "democracy" which I | :44:48. | :44:52. | |
would remind them, government by the people, especially rule of the | :44:53. | :44:55. | |
majority. With that in mind, what reassurance can my right honourable | :44:56. | :44:58. | |
friend give my constituents and me that Article 50 will be triggered by | :44:59. | :44:59. | |
March next year? That we will trigger article 50 by | :45:00. | :45:14. | |
March next year. My honourable friend is right. The referendum was | :45:15. | :45:20. | |
decided by this Parliament 6-1 that people should have the opportunity | :45:21. | :45:24. | |
to vote on membership of the European Union, the vote was held, | :45:25. | :45:28. | |
the turnout was high, public gave their verdict. There must be no | :45:29. | :45:31. | |
second referendum, no attempt to weasel out of it, this is the | :45:32. | :45:34. | |
government that will deliver on the vote of the British people. Mr | :45:35. | :45:40. | |
Speaker, we on these benches have repeatedly brought up the | :45:41. | :45:44. | |
devastating impact on disabled people from the UK benefits system. | :45:45. | :45:51. | |
The government plans to cut support for people with long-term health | :45:52. | :45:54. | |
difficulties by ?30 per week. Last week might SNP colleague proposed a | :45:55. | :45:59. | |
motion which was passed by this house with support from both Labour | :46:00. | :46:04. | |
and Conservative members for these cuts to be postponed. Will the Prime | :46:05. | :46:09. | |
Minister act on the vote of this house? Let me say to the Right | :46:10. | :46:13. | |
Honourable gentleman what we've been doing in relation to benefits for | :46:14. | :46:18. | |
disabled people. The overall funding for disability benefits will be | :46:19. | :46:23. | |
higher in every year up to 2020 than it was in 2010. We have been | :46:24. | :46:26. | |
focusing support on those who most need it, those who are not able to | :46:27. | :46:31. | |
get into the workplace. For those who are able at some stage to get | :46:32. | :46:34. | |
into the workplace we have been providing a wider package of | :46:35. | :46:39. | |
support. I'm pleased to say over the last three years nearly 600,000 more | :46:40. | :46:43. | |
disabled people are in the workplace with the dignity of having a job, | :46:44. | :46:46. | |
which is what many people with disabilities want to have. We are | :46:47. | :46:52. | |
focusing on help for those who need it and helping those that want to | :46:53. | :46:55. | |
get into the workplace to do that. It was widely trailed that the Prime | :46:56. | :47:00. | |
Minister will make changes impacting on benefit recipients in work, will | :47:01. | :47:04. | |
the Prime Minister confirmed she has no intention of helping people with | :47:05. | :47:08. | |
disabilities and medical conditions? Why should people who are unable to | :47:09. | :47:13. | |
earn a living it punished for their disability or illness by losing ?30 | :47:14. | :47:17. | |
a week? Does she have any intention of changing that. I have just set | :47:18. | :47:21. | |
out for the right honourable gentleman the ways in which we are | :47:22. | :47:26. | |
providing support and help for those people who have disabilities. As I | :47:27. | :47:32. | |
said, the overall funding for spending on disability benefits will | :47:33. | :47:35. | |
be higher in every year to 2020 than it was in 2010. What it is also | :47:36. | :47:39. | |
important to recognise that when we give support for people with | :47:40. | :47:43. | |
disabilities it isn't simply about the benefits system and how much | :47:44. | :47:47. | |
money they are given, for those who are able to get into work, and on | :47:48. | :47:52. | |
that part of the EASA, we provide packages that are outside benefits | :47:53. | :47:56. | |
as well, as we recognise that people want the dignity of getting into the | :47:57. | :48:00. | |
workplace. That's what we are helping people with disabilities who | :48:01. | :48:11. | |
can work to do. Simon Burns. Will my right honourable friend agree that | :48:12. | :48:16. | |
thousands of road commuters, including many of my constituents | :48:17. | :48:20. | |
who use the a 12, are travelling on roads that need to be repaired and | :48:21. | :48:27. | |
upgraded? To improve connectivity and to speed up daily commute times, | :48:28. | :48:31. | |
would my right honourable friend accept that the proposed ?1.3 | :48:32. | :48:38. | |
billion investment in improving our road network is warmly welcomed and | :48:39. | :48:44. | |
will do a great deal to enhance connectivity in the country? My | :48:45. | :48:51. | |
honourable friend is absolutely right. The importance of | :48:52. | :48:56. | |
infrastructure expenditure in helping to deal with the issue of | :48:57. | :49:01. | |
productivity in our economy, and I'm pleased that that ?1.3 billion for | :49:02. | :49:05. | |
new roads does show us investing in the long-term future for Britain. It | :49:06. | :49:09. | |
is about delivering jobs, delivering economic growth, it is about making | :49:10. | :49:13. | |
sure that this is an economy that works for everyone. It's just one | :49:14. | :49:18. | |
part of the package that we are proposing. Of course my right | :49:19. | :49:21. | |
honourable friend the Chancellor will be setting our proposals out | :49:22. | :49:28. | |
more clearly in a few minutes time. One of my constituents is imprisoned | :49:29. | :49:34. | |
in Iran. A British national has been separated from her husband and her | :49:35. | :49:37. | |
two-year-old daughter for eight months now. She has been on hunger | :49:38. | :49:43. | |
strike and is now suicidal. The Prime Minister needs to reunite this | :49:44. | :49:47. | |
mother, this daughter, this wife with her family. Mr Speaker, will it | :49:48. | :49:58. | |
take her death for the government to start taking her seriously? | :49:59. | :50:03. | |
Obviously this is a very difficult time for the whole family and I'm | :50:04. | :50:06. | |
sure we are all concerned about the reports of the impact that detention | :50:07. | :50:13. | |
is having on her health as she is in detention in Errani. This has been | :50:14. | :50:21. | |
repeatedly raised with the Iranians government. I personally raised it | :50:22. | :50:27. | |
on the 20th of September in New York when I stressed the importance of | :50:28. | :50:30. | |
finding a resolution as soon as possible. I have requested | :50:31. | :50:41. | |
assurances that Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe will be allowed | :50:42. | :50:48. | |
representation and contact with her family. The British government | :50:49. | :50:53. | |
remains ready to help bringing Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's daughter back to | :50:54. | :50:58. | |
Britain if that is the request. Does my right honourable friend that most | :50:59. | :51:01. | |
of our social problems are either caused or aggravated by the acute | :51:02. | :51:08. | |
shortage of housing? So even if, as I hope, we managed to reduce the net | :51:09. | :51:12. | |
immigration to this country, we will have to build far more new homes. So | :51:13. | :51:17. | |
isn't the decision, the recommendation by the European | :51:18. | :51:20. | |
banking authority, to increase by 50% the reserves banks must hold | :51:21. | :51:27. | |
against house-building, making it even more costly for them to land | :51:28. | :51:30. | |
for housing than for unsecured credit cards, profoundly unhelpful | :51:31. | :51:39. | |
and perverse? Well I'm sure my right honourable friend will recognise | :51:40. | :51:43. | |
that we, of course, are subject to our own regulation authorities. The | :51:44. | :51:47. | |
point he makes about the importance of house-building is absolutely | :51:48. | :51:50. | |
correct, we do need to build more homes. That is something the | :51:51. | :51:54. | |
government has been doing, we've seen something like 900,000 new | :51:55. | :51:59. | |
homes built since 2010, but there is more for us to do and that is what | :52:00. | :52:04. | |
this government is working on. Brexit secretary and the Foreign | :52:05. | :52:07. | |
Secretary are described by a senior German politician as having no idea | :52:08. | :52:14. | |
what Brexit really means. The Times reports today that EU ambassadors | :52:15. | :52:20. | |
think the Foreign Secretary's more colourful outbursts are damaging our | :52:21. | :52:26. | |
relationship with member states. When is the Prime Minister going to | :52:27. | :52:30. | |
get a grip on her ministers and when is she going to demonstrate to the | :52:31. | :52:35. | |
country and to our EU colleagues that she has a coherent, workable | :52:36. | :52:44. | |
plan for Brexit? I've been very clear in this house on many | :52:45. | :52:47. | |
occasions about the plan that we have for Brexit. Crucially we will | :52:48. | :52:52. | |
be leaving the European Union and we will be triggering article 50 by the | :52:53. | :52:55. | |
end of March next year and that's when the formal negotiations will | :52:56. | :53:00. | |
start. But it is absolutely right that we do not set out, at this | :53:01. | :53:03. | |
stage, every single detail of our proposed negotiating strategy, | :53:04. | :53:07. | |
because that would be the best way to get the worst possible deal for | :53:08. | :53:14. | |
Britain. As we leave the European Union, maintaining the UK's cutting | :53:15. | :53:20. | |
edge in world leadership in scientific and technological | :53:21. | :53:22. | |
discovery is of paramount importance to our industries and universities. | :53:23. | :53:27. | |
Can I welcome the Prime Minister's announcement that each year we will | :53:28. | :53:30. | |
invest a further ?2 billion in investment and of element to boost | :53:31. | :53:34. | |
our science and engineering base. Isn't this just the type of vital | :53:35. | :53:39. | |
support that our businesses and researchers need, rather than the | :53:40. | :53:43. | |
threats from the Labour Party to slash the research and development | :53:44. | :53:45. | |
tax credits that would hamper innovation and harm our economy? My | :53:46. | :53:51. | |
right honourable friend is absolutely right. The extra | :53:52. | :53:54. | |
investment we will be putting into research and development is a | :53:55. | :53:59. | |
crucial part of the long-term task we have of ensuring that we have the | :54:00. | :54:02. | |
economy and the growth and prosperity in this country that we | :54:03. | :54:08. | |
need. The new funds will be able to put us at the cutting edge of | :54:09. | :54:12. | |
scientific discovery, which I saw for myself, we are already doing | :54:13. | :54:17. | |
this. I was at the Wellcome genomics campus in Cambridge on Monday, able | :54:18. | :54:22. | |
to see the really exciting, really transformational work that is being | :54:23. | :54:26. | |
done, coming out of the knowledge base and scientific research here in | :54:27. | :54:29. | |
the United Kingdom. We want to see more of that and that is why we will | :54:30. | :54:35. | |
be reinvesting in it. Aleppo's hospitals are destroyed, Syrians who | :54:36. | :54:40. | |
avoid the barrel bombs and chlorine gas are starving from the Russian | :54:41. | :54:46. | |
blockade. We must do more. So will she revisit the prospect for a | :54:47. | :54:53. | |
strops, and will she looked at backing the campaign to stop this | :54:54. | :54:58. | |
daily perpetrator of war crimes of stripping them of its right to hold | :54:59. | :55:07. | |
the 2018 World Cup -- will she revisit the prospect of aid drops. | :55:08. | :55:10. | |
The honourable gentleman is correct to raise the appalling itches taking | :55:11. | :55:13. | |
place in Aleppo and it is right that we, along with our international | :55:14. | :55:17. | |
allies, should be doing all we can to bring this to a stop. He will | :55:18. | :55:22. | |
recognise that the issue of who hosts sporting events is not in the | :55:23. | :55:26. | |
government's remit. What we are doing is working with our | :55:27. | :55:28. | |
international allies to put more pressure on Russia to stop the | :55:29. | :55:33. | |
appalling atrocities, the appalling attacks taking place in Aleppo. What | :55:34. | :55:39. | |
we want to see is an agreement for a political transition to a Syria | :55:40. | :55:44. | |
without President Assad. Does my right honourable friend agree that | :55:45. | :55:48. | |
if the UK is to remain competitive, and our citizens are to enjoy the | :55:49. | :55:52. | |
benefits of a digital revolution, it is essential that we should be at | :55:53. | :55:56. | |
the forefront of deployment of both ultra fast broadband and five G | :55:57. | :56:01. | |
mobile connectivity? Can I therefore welcome the announcement that we are | :56:02. | :56:07. | |
led to believe may be made shortly of a ?1 billion investment to | :56:08. | :56:12. | |
achieve this. Well, my right honourable friend will, of course, | :56:13. | :56:17. | |
be waiting in anticipation for my right honourable friend the | :56:18. | :56:21. | |
Chancellor's Autumn Statement, but he's absolutely right that as we | :56:22. | :56:24. | |
look at improving collectivity in this country, as we look to the | :56:25. | :56:29. | |
economy of the future, the provision of superfast broadband, the | :56:30. | :56:32. | |
provision of those new technological opportunities for people is | :56:33. | :56:35. | |
absolutely a crucial part of that, and that is something this | :56:36. | :56:39. | |
government recognises and will act on. One day last week four police | :56:40. | :56:44. | |
officers in my constituency were assaulted over a single 24 hour | :56:45. | :56:49. | |
period. There are over 23,000 assaults on police officers last | :56:50. | :56:52. | |
year. An assault on a police officer is an assault on society. What will | :56:53. | :56:57. | |
the Prime Minister do to make sure the toughest deterrence are in place | :56:58. | :57:00. | |
to reduce attacks on from mine officers, and restore the number of | :57:01. | :57:08. | |
police on our streets? Can I send our best wishes to those police | :57:09. | :57:11. | |
officers who were assaulted in her constituency last week. It is | :57:12. | :57:16. | |
important that we recognise, when police officers go out on duty, and | :57:17. | :57:22. | |
indeed off-duty, they sometimes find themselves intervening in situations | :57:23. | :57:25. | |
where they find themselves on the receiving end of assaults and | :57:26. | :57:28. | |
violence against them. They are willing to go forward in the line of | :57:29. | :57:33. | |
duty where others are not. And we recognise that. What we have done in | :57:34. | :57:37. | |
relation to this is, one of the things we want to do is to actually | :57:38. | :57:41. | |
identify rather better the number of assaults taking place. That's why | :57:42. | :57:45. | |
last year we issued some provisional figures, we are improving those | :57:46. | :57:48. | |
figures this year. Sentencing guidelines already allow for an | :57:49. | :57:52. | |
assault on a police officer to be taken as an aggravating factor into | :57:53. | :57:57. | |
account. Newton elements like body worn video cameras help to provide | :57:58. | :58:04. | |
evidence to make sure people can be brought to justice and deter | :58:05. | :58:07. | |
assaults in the first place. I know the Prime Minister shares my concern | :58:08. | :58:12. | |
at the level of Acute Hospital bed blocking. But she agree with me that | :58:13. | :58:18. | |
part of the solution is to promote Community Hospital beds in places | :58:19. | :58:22. | |
where they still exist in places like Warminster and Shaftesbury as | :58:23. | :58:28. | |
part of a stability process. As regards the best EP process, that | :58:29. | :58:34. | |
will take place at local level that these proposals will be considered | :58:35. | :58:37. | |
and put forward by local clinicians. But the concept of being able to | :58:38. | :58:41. | |
deal with bed blocking in a variety of ways is absolutely right. There | :58:42. | :58:44. | |
are good examples around the country where having those step-down beds | :58:45. | :58:50. | |
available is actually resolving the problem of bed blocking. There are | :58:51. | :58:54. | |
other ways in which it is being done, in parts of the country social | :58:55. | :58:58. | |
workers are employed by hospital trusts for example. It is good to | :58:59. | :59:01. | |
recognise the good practice when it is being done and we should see more | :59:02. | :59:05. | |
of that across the country. Earlier this month IRA man turned lawyer | :59:06. | :59:11. | |
Kieran Conway confessed to the BBC that he took part in robberies, | :59:12. | :59:16. | |
bombings and gun attacks that murdered British soldiers. He stated | :59:17. | :59:21. | |
he will never disclose information on any fellow IRA man despite | :59:22. | :59:25. | |
knowing details of IRA actions that he himself defined as constituting | :59:26. | :59:30. | |
war crimes. Can the Prime Minister assure me that Her Majesty 's | :59:31. | :59:33. | |
government will apply for the extradition of this terrorist for | :59:34. | :59:36. | |
questioning from the Republic of Ireland? The question as to whether | :59:37. | :59:42. | |
or not an individual would be extradited or a request would be put | :59:43. | :59:46. | |
in for extradition would be for the appropriate prosecution and | :59:47. | :59:51. | |
investigation authorities to take. What I do say to the honourable | :59:52. | :59:55. | |
gentleman is that we do of course recognise the concerns for those | :59:56. | :00:00. | |
cases where it is still possible to bring people to justice, and | :00:01. | :00:03. | |
obviously want to see that being done. Mr Speaker, during the last | :00:04. | :00:09. | |
six years we've had three major referendums all with varying degrees | :00:10. | :00:13. | |
of excitement. Would the Prime Minister agree with me that you can | :00:14. | :00:17. | |
have too much excitement, will see therefore rule out any further | :00:18. | :00:18. | |
referendums in this Parliament? Well, my honourable friend is trying | :00:19. | :00:30. | |
to set me down a route. One thing I will certainly rule out is a second | :00:31. | :00:33. | |
referendum on whether or not we leave the European Union. | :00:34. | :00:44. | |
Mr Speaker, there has been a financial appeal launched because of | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
the increasing numbers of people finding themselves homeless as the | :00:49. | :00:53. | |
direct result of the UK Government's pursuit of austerity. How account | :00:54. | :00:58. | |
Prime Minister sleep in her warm bed at night, knowing her Government | :00:59. | :01:03. | |
policies have confined people to a cold Christmas? The Government is | :01:04. | :01:07. | |
taking action in a variety of aof ways to address homelessness. We | :01:08. | :01:11. | |
need it make sure we see more homes being built in this country. I say | :01:12. | :01:15. | |
this to the honourable lady. She talks about austerity in the tone | :01:16. | :01:19. | |
she refers to T actually austerity is about us living within our means. | :01:20. | :01:29. | |
And we should always remember, when we are talking about Government | :01:30. | :01:32. | |
providing support for individuals, that tax payers have to pay for that | :01:33. | :01:37. | |
support and many tax payers are themselves struggling to get by. | :01:38. | :01:41. | |
Thank you, Mr Speaker. The Prime Minister will be aware | :01:42. | :01:45. | |
that yesterday the peninsula rail task force launched its report which | :01:46. | :01:48. | |
was commissioned following the storms which serviced Devon and | :01:49. | :01:52. | |
Cornwall's vital rail link as it was severed again, this time by | :01:53. | :01:55. | |
flooding. Does she welcome the report and will she commit the | :01:56. | :02:00. | |
Government to ensuring the vision it outlines is delivered? I thank my | :02:01. | :02:04. | |
honourable friend for his question. Can I suggest he exercises a little | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
more patience and listens very carefully to what my right | :02:08. | :02:09. | |
honourable friend the Chancellor will have to say. | :02:10. | :02:17. | |
Mr Speaker, in these uncertain times, we all should agree that | :02:18. | :02:22. | |
Britain needs strong defence. How account Prime Minister justify her | :02:23. | :02:29. | |
Government's decision to scrap all the Navy's heavyweight surface to | :02:30. | :02:34. | |
surface guided missiles without any replacement? I don't accept the | :02:35. | :02:40. | |
picture the honourable gentleman represents of the Armed Forces, we | :02:41. | :02:44. | |
are investing billions of pounds to ensuring our Armed Forces have the | :02:45. | :02:48. | |
missiles, the boats, the ships for the royal navy and other pieces of | :02:49. | :02:50. | |
equipment for the other Armed Forces. So the picture he presents | :02:51. | :02:54. | |
is not the picture I recognise. Thank you, Mr Speaker. | :02:55. | :02:59. | |
Would my right honourable friend agree that it would be good for | :03:00. | :03:07. | |
confidence in the rule of law if judges did not enter into | :03:08. | :03:10. | |
speculative public thoughts on cases that they are about to hear? We | :03:11. | :03:18. | |
value n this country, the independence of our judiciary. -- in | :03:19. | :03:24. | |
this country. That's the independence for the judiciary when | :03:25. | :03:27. | |
they come to make their judgments in court but also they are independent | :03:28. | :03:30. | |
and it is for them to determine what they choose to put in their speechts | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
or not, not for the Government to tell them what to do. Mr Speaker, as | :03:35. | :03:45. | |
millions of public sector workers face another year of suppressed pay. | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
After another week of shambolic Brexit negotiations, and with a | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
National Health Service facing an winter crisis, facing ap winter | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
crisis and crying out for cash, does the Prime Minister worry that her | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
Government is only just about managing? | :04:03. | :04:11. | |
Well, I have to say to the right honourable gentleman that we are | :04:12. | :04:13. | |
very clear about the amounts of money we are putting into the | :04:14. | :04:17. | |
National Health Service. He talks about the negotiations, actually the | :04:18. | :04:20. | |
negotiations for us leaving the European Union don't formally start | :04:21. | :04:24. | |
until we trigger Article 50. We will be triggering Article 50 by the end | :04:25. | :04:29. | |
of March next year. What the right honourable gentleman wants to do is | :04:30. | :04:33. | |
to stop us from leaving the European Union by denying the people, the | :04:34. | :04:38. | |
decision and deliverability of the vote they took, rightly on, 23rd | :04:39. | :04:42. | |
June. He wants to deny people what they want, we are going to give it | :04:43. | :04:47. | |
to them. May I raise with the Prime Minister the concerns of millions of | :04:48. | :04:50. | |
drivers and hauliers across the United Kingdom who worry about the | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
cost of driving, cost of fuel duty, whether her Government will look at | :04:55. | :04:58. | |
keeping that down and also at the pump pricing and how forecourt | :04:59. | :05:04. | |
pricing is worked as oil prices change, prices jump like a rocket | :05:05. | :05:08. | |
and fall like a feather. I recognise, as my honourable friend | :05:09. | :05:11. | |
says many people look with very great concern about the cost of | :05:12. | :05:14. | |
motoring in this country. I suggest, as I have done, to some of my other | :05:15. | :05:19. | |
honourable friends, he is a little more patient and waits for the | :05:20. | :05:21. | |
Chancellor's Autumn Statement. Thank you, Mr Speaker. The Prime | :05:22. | :05:27. | |
Minister has talked about her worries with social care but surely | :05:28. | :05:33. | |
we have to judge her by her actions. In the last six years there's been a | :05:34. | :05:38. | |
37%, on average, cut in local authority funding. 57% in my area. | :05:39. | :05:42. | |
And nearly one-quarter of all of those older people in need of social | :05:43. | :05:46. | |
care have been denied any help at all. What is she going to do about | :05:47. | :05:55. | |
it? The Right Honourable lady might have noticed I have been asked | :05:56. | :05:59. | |
several questions about social care and I will give the answer... | :06:00. | :06:03. | |
I will give the answer I have given previously. What this Government is | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
doing about social care is putting more in through the Better Care | :06:08. | :06:10. | |
Fund, giving local authorities the opportunity through the social care | :06:11. | :06:13. | |
preset and making sure that health and social care come together to | :06:14. | :06:16. | |
ensure that we deal with the issue of bedblocking. | :06:17. | :06:21. | |
Thank you, Mr Speaker. Mr Speaker, how many of us would charge into a | :06:22. | :06:29. | |
darkened store at night knowing that inside there three masked-wearing | :06:30. | :06:32. | |
crow-war wielding thugs trying to rob a store My two constituents, | :06:33. | :06:38. | |
Nigel and Grant did just that and by intervening, the thugs fled, leaving | :06:39. | :06:43. | |
the money, the staff were hurt less, and one of the gentlemen was hurt | :06:44. | :06:46. | |
himself. Will my right honourable friend join me in praising their | :06:47. | :06:53. | |
courage and selflessness in this extraordinary act of bravado? I | :06:54. | :07:02. | |
absolutely... I absolutely agree with my | :07:03. | :07:07. | |
honourable friend and I commend the bravery and courage that was shown | :07:08. | :07:12. | |
by those two individuals. I think he said Nigel and Grant who stepped | :07:13. | :07:14. | |
into that situation who ensure that it was not as bad as it might have | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
been. That is incredible bravery. There are many members of the public | :07:20. | :07:22. | |
who would not have been willing to step forward in that way. Can he | :07:23. | :07:28. | |
pass my best wishes and I'm sure the best wishes of the House on to those | :07:29. | :07:31. | |
individuals. Does the Prime Minister believe that | :07:32. | :07:36. | |
big companies should put a woke on the board? I believe that we should | :07:37. | :07:42. | |
see workers representation on boards and I make no apology for the fact | :07:43. | :07:45. | |
that this Government is going to deliver on that. | :07:46. | :07:50. | |
For all their years in Government, the Labour Party did nothing. Speak | :07:51. | :07:59. | |
speck order. -- THE SPEAKER: Order. Statement the First Secretary of | :08:00. | :08:02. | |
State and Chancellor of the Exchequer. | :08:03. | :08:09. | |
Chancellor Phil Hammond. Mr Speaker, it is a privilege to | :08:10. | :08:14. | |
report today on an economy which the IMF predicts will be the | :08:15. | :08:17. | |
fastest-growing major advanced economy in the world this year. | :08:18. | :08:23. | |
An economy with employment at a record high and unemployment at an | :08:24. | :08:26. | |
11-year low. An economy which, through the hard | :08:27. | :08:30. | |
work of the British people, has bounced back from the depths of | :08:31. | :08:36. | |
Labour's recession. And an economy, which has confounded | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
commentators at hem and abroad wits strengths and its resilience -- at | :08:42. | :08:46. | |
home and abroad with its sfrenges and resilience since the British | :08:47. | :08:49. | |
people decided to leave the European Union and chart a new future for our | :08:50. | :08:57. | |
country. M Mr Speaker that will change the course of history, it has | :08:58. | :09:03. | |
thrown into sharp relieve the economy that will ensure our | :09:04. | :09:06. | |
success. The global reach of our services industries, the strength of | :09:07. | :09:10. | |
our science and hi-tech manufacturing base and the cutting | :09:11. | :09:13. | |
edge British businesses that are he had looking the world in disruptive | :09:14. | :09:16. | |
technologies. But it is a decision that also makes more urgent, than | :09:17. | :09:22. | |
ever, the need to tackle our economy's long-term weaknesses, like | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
the productivity gap, the housing challenge and the damaging imbalance | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
in economic growth and prosperity across our country. | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
Mr Speaker, we resolve today to conp front those challenges head on. -- | :09:36. | :09:38. | |
confront those challenges head on. To prepare our country to seize the | :09:39. | :09:43. | |
opportunities ahead. And in doing so, to build an economy that works | :09:44. | :09:51. | |
for everyone. A an economy where every corner of | :09:52. | :09:55. | |
this United Kingdom is part of our national success. Mr Speaker, I want | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
to pay tribute to my predecessor, my right honourable friend, the member | :10:01. | :10:07. | |
for Tatton. My style, Mr Speaker, will, of | :10:08. | :10:14. | |
course be different from his. I suspect I will prove no more adept | :10:15. | :10:19. | |
at pulling rabbits from hats than my successor at Foreign Secretary has | :10:20. | :10:22. | |
been from retrieving balls from the back of scrums. But my focus on | :10:23. | :10:28. | |
building Britain's long-term future will be the same. He took over an | :10:29. | :10:36. | |
economy on the brink of collapse. With the highest budget deficit in | :10:37. | :10:47. | |
our history and brought it down by two-thirds. That is a record of | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
which he should be proud but times have moved on and the task now is to | :10:53. | :10:58. | |
prepare the economy for the exit of the EU and match fit for the | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
transition that will follow. We will contain our commitment for fiscal | :11:03. | :11:07. | |
discipline, while recognising the need for investment to drive | :11:08. | :11:10. | |
productivity. And fiscal head room to support the | :11:11. | :11:13. | |
economy through the transition. Mr Speaker, let me turn now to the | :11:14. | :11:21. | |
forecast. Since 2010, the Office for Budget Responsibility has provided | :11:22. | :11:24. | |
an independent economic and fiscal forecast to which the Government | :11:25. | :11:28. | |
must respond. Gone are the days when the Chancellor could mark his own | :11:29. | :11:33. | |
homework. I thank Robert Choalk and his team for their hard work. | :11:34. | :11:39. | |
Today's OBR forecast is for growth to be 2.1% in 2016, high than | :11:40. | :11:46. | |
forecast in March N 2017, the OBR forecast growth to slow to 2.4%, | :11:47. | :11:52. | |
which they attribute to lobar investment and weaker consumer | :11:53. | :11:56. | |
demand driven respectively by greater uncertainty and by higher | :11:57. | :11:59. | |
inflation resulting from sterling depreciation. That is slower, of | :12:00. | :12:05. | |
course, than we would wish. But, still, equivalent to the IMF's | :12:06. | :12:08. | |
forecasts for Germany and higher than the forecast for growth in many | :12:09. | :12:13. | |
of our European neighbours, including France and Italy. A fact | :12:14. | :12:18. | |
that will, no doubt, be a source of very considerable irritation to | :12:19. | :12:23. | |
some. As the affects of uncertainty | :12:24. | :12:29. | |
diminish, the OBR's forecast growth recovering to 1.7% in 2018, 2.1% in | :12:30. | :12:37. | |
2019-2020 and 2% in 202 #. While the OBR is clear it cannot predict the | :12:38. | :12:42. | |
deal the UK will strike the EU, it's current view is that the referendum | :12:43. | :12:46. | |
decision means that potential growth over the forecast period is likely | :12:47. | :12:51. | |
to be 2.4% lower than would otherwise have been the case. | :12:52. | :12:57. | |
The OBR acknowledges that there is a higher degree of uncertainty around | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
these figures than usual. Despite slower growth, the UK labour | :13:02. | :13:07. | |
market is forecast to remain robust. We have delivered over 2.7 million | :13:08. | :13:12. | |
new jobs since 2010 and this forecast, this forecast, Mr Speaker, | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
shows that number growing in every year. | :13:17. | :13:22. | |
Another 500,000 jobs created over the OBR forecast, providing security | :13:23. | :13:26. | |
for working people across the length and breadth of Britain. | :13:27. | :13:31. | |
Mr Speaker, for those who claim that the recovery is just a south-east | :13:32. | :13:36. | |
phenomenon, I have some news. Over the past year, employment grew | :13:37. | :13:40. | |
fastest in the north-east, the claimant count fell fastest in | :13:41. | :13:43. | |
Northern Ireland. Pay grew most strongly in the West Midlands and | :13:44. | :13:47. | |
every UK nation and region saw a record number of people in work. | :13:48. | :13:54. | |
That, Mr Speaker, is a labour market recovery that is working for | :13:55. | :13:59. | |
everyone. Monetary policy has played an | :14:00. | :14:02. | |
important role in supporting growth since the referendum decision. But a | :14:03. | :14:08. | |
credible fiscal policy remains essential for maintaining market | :14:09. | :14:10. | |
confidence and restoring the economy to long-term hale. | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
In -- long-term hale. In view of the uncertainty facing the economy and | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
in the face of slower growth forecastings, we no longer seek to | :14:20. | :14:26. | |
deliver a surplus in 2019-20 but the Prime Minister and I - the Prime | :14:27. | :14:30. | |
Minister and I, Mr Speaker, remain firmly committed to seeing the | :14:31. | :14:36. | |
public finances returned to balance as soon as practicable, while | :14:37. | :14:43. | |
leaving enough flexibility... SHOUTS AND | :14:44. | :14:47. | |
JEERS While leaving enough flexibility to | :14:48. | :14:52. | |
sport economy in the near term. -- to support the economy. Today aim' | :14:53. | :14:59. | |
reporting a new draft charter with three fiscal rules: First the public | :15:00. | :15:02. | |
finances should be returned to balance as early as possible in the | :15:03. | :15:10. | |
next Parliament. And in the... And in the interim, Mr Speaker, sick | :15:11. | :15:14. | |
lickically adjusted borrowing should be below 2% by the end of this | :15:15. | :15:17. | |
Parliament. Second, public sector net debt as | :15:18. | :15:24. | |
share of GDP must be falling by the end of this Parliament. Welfare | :15:25. | :15:30. | |
spending must be within a cap set by the government and monitored by the | :15:31. | :15:34. | |
OBR. In the absence of an effective framework, the welfare bill in our | :15:35. | :15:38. | |
country spiralled out of control with spending on working age | :15:39. | :15:41. | |
benefits trebling in real terms between 1980 and 2010 as a result of | :15:42. | :15:48. | |
the action we have taken since 2010, that has now stabilised. The cat I | :15:49. | :15:54. | |
have announced takes into account the policy changes since the last | :15:55. | :16:01. | |
budget with a realistic baseline -- the cap. I confirm again today that | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
the government has no plans to introduce further welfare savings | :16:06. | :16:08. | |
measures in this Parliament beyond those already announced. I now turn, | :16:09. | :16:15. | |
Mr Speaker, to the OBR fiscal forecast. First I will set out key | :16:16. | :16:19. | |
drivers of changes since the budget. The post-budget changes that were | :16:20. | :16:22. | |
made to welfare and housing policies cost the Exchequer ?8.6 billion over | :16:23. | :16:31. | |
the forecast period. Expected ONS classification changes have added | :16:32. | :16:36. | |
?12 billion since the budget. Tax receipts have been lower than | :16:37. | :16:38. | |
expected this year, causing the OBR to revise down addicted revenues in | :16:39. | :16:45. | |
future. Added to this is a structural effect of rapidly rising | :16:46. | :16:49. | |
incorporation and self-employment, which further erodes revenues. | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
Combine in these pressures with the impact of forecast weaker growth and | :16:55. | :16:57. | |
taking account of the measures I shall announce today, the OBR now | :16:58. | :17:02. | |
forecasts that in cash terms borrowing is set to be ?68.2 billion | :17:03. | :17:08. | |
this year, falling to ?59 billion next year, ?46.5 billion in 18-19, | :17:09. | :17:22. | |
and then ?21.9 million, -- ?20.7 billion, and ?17.2 billion in 21-22. | :17:23. | :17:27. | |
Overall public sector net borrowing as a percentage of GDP will fall | :17:28. | :17:32. | |
from 4% last year to 3.5% this year and will continue to fall over the | :17:33. | :17:40. | |
parliament, reaching 0.7% in 21-22. This will be the lowest deficit as a | :17:41. | :17:47. | |
share of GDP in two decades. The OBR expects security adjusted public | :17:48. | :17:55. | |
sector net borrowing to be 0.8% of GDP in 20-21, comfortable in meeting | :17:56. | :18:01. | |
our target to it to less than 2% and importantly leaving significant | :18:02. | :18:04. | |
flexibility to respond to any headwinds the economy may encounter. | :18:05. | :18:10. | |
The OBR's forecast of higher borrowing and slow asset sales | :18:11. | :18:13. | |
together with the temporary effect of the Bank of England's action to | :18:14. | :18:18. | |
stimulate growth translates into an increased forecast the debt in the | :18:19. | :18:23. | |
near-term. The OBR forecasts that debt will rise from 84.2% of GDP | :18:24. | :18:30. | |
last year to 87.3% this year. Peeking at 90.2% in 2017-18, has the | :18:31. | :18:37. | |
Bank of England's monetary policy interventions approached their full | :18:38. | :18:43. | |
effect. In 2018-19 debt is projected to fall to 89.7% of national income, | :18:44. | :18:48. | |
a first fall in the national debt as a share of GDP since 2001- 02. And | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
it is forecast to continue falling thereafter. Members of the house may | :18:54. | :18:58. | |
be interested to know that stripping out the effects of the Bank of | :18:59. | :19:03. | |
England interventions underlying debt peaks this year at 82.4% of GDP | :19:04. | :19:10. | |
and falls thereafter to 77.7% by 21-22. This the Speaker, it is | :19:11. | :19:16. | |
customary in the run-up to the Autumn Statement to hear | :19:17. | :19:19. | |
representations from the Shadow Chancellor of the day, usually for | :19:20. | :19:24. | |
untenable levels of spending and borrowing. We used to think on this | :19:25. | :19:30. | |
side of the house that Ed Balls's demands were an extreme example, but | :19:31. | :19:36. | |
I have to say the current Shadow Chancellor has outperformed him in | :19:37. | :19:43. | |
the fiscal incompetent sweepstakes. What we don't know is whether he can | :19:44. | :19:54. | |
also dance. He can? Good, good. A second career awaits him, Mr | :19:55. | :20:00. | |
Speaker. I have received, Mr Speaker, some more measured | :20:01. | :20:03. | |
representations from a range of external bodies. Some of them | :20:04. | :20:07. | |
calling for fiscal expansion while others have suggested that there is | :20:08. | :20:11. | |
no need at all to respond to a changed economic outlook. And that | :20:12. | :20:14. | |
reflects, to be fair, the challenge that we face of resolving how best | :20:15. | :20:19. | |
to protect the recovery, build on the economy's manifest strengths, | :20:20. | :20:23. | |
yet at the same time respond appropriately to the warnings of a | :20:24. | :20:28. | |
more difficult period ahead. But with our debt forecast to peak at | :20:29. | :20:32. | |
over 90% next year and the deficit this year of 3.5%, I have reached my | :20:33. | :20:38. | |
own judgment. It is a judgment based on a sober analysis of our fiscal | :20:39. | :20:44. | |
position, but also a realistic appraisal of the weakness of UK | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
productivity, and the urgent need to address our fiscal challenge from | :20:49. | :20:52. | |
both ends. Continuing to control public expenditure but also growing | :20:53. | :20:58. | |
the potential of the economy and protecting the tax base. So we | :20:59. | :21:02. | |
choose in this Autumn Statement to prioritise additional high-value | :21:03. | :21:08. | |
investment, specifically in infrastructure and innovation, that | :21:09. | :21:12. | |
will directly contribute to raising Britain's productivity. And the key | :21:13. | :21:20. | |
judgment we make today is that our hard-won credibility on public | :21:21. | :21:23. | |
spending means that we can fund this commitment in the short-term from | :21:24. | :21:28. | |
additional borrowing while funding all other new policies announced in | :21:29. | :21:34. | |
this Autumn Statement through additional tax and spending | :21:35. | :21:38. | |
measures. That is the responsible way to secure our economy for the | :21:39. | :21:43. | |
long-term. Mr Speaker, the productivity gap is well known to | :21:44. | :21:47. | |
honourable and right Honourable members but shocking nonetheless. It | :21:48. | :21:54. | |
bears repeating, we lack the US and Germany by some 30 percentage points | :21:55. | :22:00. | |
in productivity, but we also lag France by 20 points and Italy by | :22:01. | :22:04. | |
eight points. Which means in the real world it takes a German worker | :22:05. | :22:09. | |
for days to produce what we make in five. And that means, in turn, that | :22:10. | :22:16. | |
too many British workers work longer hours for lower pay than their | :22:17. | :22:19. | |
counterparts, and that has to change if we are to build an economy that | :22:20. | :22:26. | |
works for everyone. So raising productivity, Mr Speaker, is | :22:27. | :22:29. | |
essential for the high wage, high skill economy that will deliver | :22:30. | :22:34. | |
higher living standards for working people across this country. As a | :22:35. | :22:38. | |
result of decisions taken by my predecessor, public investment is | :22:39. | :22:43. | |
high over this decade than it was over the whole of the period of the | :22:44. | :22:48. | |
last Labour government. But today I can go further. I can announce that | :22:49. | :22:51. | |
we are forming a new national productivity investment fund of ?23 | :22:52. | :22:57. | |
billion to be spent on innovation and infrastructure over the next | :22:58. | :23:03. | |
five years. Investing today for the economy of the future. Let me set | :23:04. | :23:09. | |
out for the house how this money will be used. Mr Speaker, we do not | :23:10. | :23:15. | |
invest enough in research, development and innovation. As the | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
pace of technology advances and competition from the rest of the | :23:21. | :23:23. | |
world increases, we must build on our strengths in science and tech | :23:24. | :23:28. | |
innovation to ensure that the next generation of discoveries is not | :23:29. | :23:32. | |
only made here, but is also developed and produced in Britain. | :23:33. | :23:36. | |
So today I can confirm the additional investment in R rising | :23:37. | :23:46. | |
to an extra ?2 billion by 2020-21. Mr Speaker, economic to productive | :23:47. | :23:51. | |
infrastructure directly benefits businesses. But families, too, rely | :23:52. | :23:56. | |
on road, rails, telecoms and especially housing. We've made good | :23:57. | :24:01. | |
progress with the number of new homes being built last year, hitting | :24:02. | :24:05. | |
an eight year high. But for too many the goal of homeownership remains | :24:06. | :24:11. | |
out of reach. In October my right honourable friend the Communities | :24:12. | :24:14. | |
Secretary launched the ?3 billion home builders fund to unlock over | :24:15. | :24:21. | |
200,000 homes and up to ?2 billion to accelerate construction on public | :24:22. | :24:24. | |
sector land. But we must further still. The challenge of delivering | :24:25. | :24:30. | |
the housing we so desperately need in the places where it is currently | :24:31. | :24:34. | |
least affordable is not, of course, a new one. At the effect of | :24:35. | :24:39. | |
unaffordable housing on our nation's productivity makes it an urgent one. | :24:40. | :24:43. | |
My right honourable friend the Communities Secretary will bring | :24:44. | :24:47. | |
forward a housing wide paper in due course addressing these long-term | :24:48. | :24:52. | |
challenges. But in the meantime we can take further steps. One of the | :24:53. | :24:58. | |
biggest objections to housing development as honourable and right | :24:59. | :25:00. | |
Honourable members will know from their own constituencies is often | :25:01. | :25:04. | |
the impact on local infrastructure. So we will focus government | :25:05. | :25:07. | |
infrastructure investment to unlock land for housing with a new ?2.3 | :25:08. | :25:12. | |
billion housing infrastructure fund to deliver infrastructure for up to | :25:13. | :25:18. | |
100,000 new homes in areas of high demand. And to provide a affordable | :25:19. | :25:25. | |
housing that supports a wide range of needs, we will invest a further | :25:26. | :25:30. | |
?1.4 billion to deliver 40,000 additional affordable homes. And I | :25:31. | :25:36. | |
will also relax restrictions on government grants to allow providers | :25:37. | :25:41. | |
to deliver wider of housing types. I can also announce a large-scale | :25:42. | :25:48. | |
regional roll-out of Right to buy for housing association tenants, and | :25:49. | :25:54. | |
continued support for homeownership through the help to buy equity loans | :25:55. | :26:00. | |
scheme and the help to buy ISA. Mr Speaker, this package means that | :26:01. | :26:02. | |
over the course of this Parliament the government expects to more than | :26:03. | :26:05. | |
double, in real terms, annual capital spending on housing. Coupled | :26:06. | :26:10. | |
with our resolve to tackle the long-term challenges of land supply, | :26:11. | :26:14. | |
this commitment to housing delivery represents a step change in our | :26:15. | :26:19. | |
ambition to increase the supply of homes for sale and for rent, to | :26:20. | :26:23. | |
deliver a housing market that works for everyone. Mr Speaker, reliable | :26:24. | :26:31. | |
transport networks are essential to growth and productivity. So this | :26:32. | :26:35. | |
Autumn Statement commits significant additional funding to help keep | :26:36. | :26:40. | |
Britain moving now and to invest in the transport networks and vehicles | :26:41. | :26:45. | |
of the future. I will commit an additional ?1.1 billion of | :26:46. | :26:48. | |
investment in English local transport networks where small | :26:49. | :26:52. | |
investments can often offer big wins. ?220 million additionally to | :26:53. | :27:00. | |
address traffic pinch points on strategic roads. ?450 million to | :27:01. | :27:04. | |
trial digital signalling on our railways to achieve a step change in | :27:05. | :27:09. | |
reliability and to squeeze more capacity out of our existing rail | :27:10. | :27:12. | |
infrastructure, something I know the Leader of the Opposition will | :27:13. | :27:20. | |
welcome. And finally, Mr Speaker, ?390 million to build on our | :27:21. | :27:23. | |
competitive advantage in low emission vehicles and the | :27:24. | :27:27. | |
development of connected autonomous vehicles. Plus 100% first-year | :27:28. | :27:32. | |
capital allowance for the installation of electric vehicle | :27:33. | :27:36. | |
charging infrastructure. The Department for Transport will | :27:37. | :27:39. | |
continue to work with transport for the North to develop detailed | :27:40. | :27:42. | |
options for the Northern Powerhouse rail. My right honourable friend the | :27:43. | :27:45. | |
Transport Secretary will set out more details of specific projects | :27:46. | :27:49. | |
and priorities over the coming weeks. Mr Speaker, our future | :27:50. | :27:54. | |
transport business and lifestyle needs will require world-class | :27:55. | :27:58. | |
digital infrastructure to underpin them. So, my ambition, it says here | :27:59. | :28:03. | |
because I wrote it here... So, my ambition, Mr Speaker, is for | :28:04. | :28:29. | |
the UK to be a world leader in 5G, which means a step change in speed | :28:30. | :28:34. | |
and reliability. We will invest over ?1 billion in our digital | :28:35. | :28:36. | |
infrastructure to catalyse private investment in fibre networks and to | :28:37. | :28:44. | |
support 5G trials. And from April we will introduce 100% business rates | :28:45. | :28:50. | |
relief for a five-year period on new fibre infrastructure. Supporting | :28:51. | :28:53. | |
further roll-out of fibre to homes and businesses. We have chosen, Mr | :28:54. | :29:01. | |
Speaker, to borrow, to kick-start a transformation in infrastructure and | :29:02. | :29:03. | |
innovation investment. But we must sustain this effort over the long | :29:04. | :29:09. | |
term if we are to make a lasting difference to the UK productivity | :29:10. | :29:13. | |
performance. So today I have written to the National infrastructure | :29:14. | :29:16. | |
commission to ask them to make their recommendations on the future | :29:17. | :29:19. | |
infrastructure needs of the country, using the assumption that the | :29:20. | :29:23. | |
government will invest between 1% and 1.2% of GDP every year from 2020 | :29:24. | :29:31. | |
in economic infrastructure covered by the commission. To put that in | :29:32. | :29:34. | |
context, will spend around 0.8% of GDP on the same definition this | :29:35. | :29:41. | |
year. I am also backing the commission's interim recommendations | :29:42. | :29:44. | |
on the Oxford Cambridge growth corridor published last week with | :29:45. | :29:48. | |
?110 million of funding for east-west rail and a commitment to | :29:49. | :29:52. | |
deliver the new Oxford Cambridge Expressway. But, Mr Speaker, this | :29:53. | :29:59. | |
project can be more than just a transport link. It can become a | :30:00. | :30:03. | |
transformational tech corridor, drawing on the world-class research | :30:04. | :30:06. | |
strengths of our two best-known universities. So I welcome the | :30:07. | :30:14. | |
commission's continuing work on delivering model options and we will | :30:15. | :30:17. | |
carefully consider its final recommendations in due course. | :30:18. | :30:22. | |
The major increase in infrastructure I have announced will represent a | :30:23. | :30:26. | |
significant increase in funding through the Barnett Formula of over | :30:27. | :30:32. | |
?250 million to the Northern Ireland executive, ?400 million to the Welsh | :30:33. | :30:36. | |
Government and ?800 million to the Scottish Government. | :30:37. | :30:45. | |
I'm sure he will in a moment. But, Mr Speaker, public investment | :30:46. | :30:55. | |
is only part of the picture. About half of our economic infrastructure | :30:56. | :30:59. | |
is financed by the private sector and we will continue to support that | :31:00. | :31:04. | |
investment through the UK guarantee scheme, which I am today extending | :31:05. | :31:09. | |
until at least 2026. The new capital investment I have announce Liberal | :31:10. | :31:14. | |
Democrat provide the financial backbone for the you Government's | :31:15. | :31:17. | |
industrial strategy which the Prime Minister spoke about on Monday, a | :31:18. | :31:21. | |
firm foundation upon which my right honourable friend the Business | :31:22. | :31:28. | |
Secretary will work, with industry, to build our ambition of an economy | :31:29. | :31:33. | |
that workser to you will A I can announce further measures it back | :31:34. | :31:37. | |
business. I'm doubling export capacity to make it easier for | :31:38. | :31:43. | |
British businesses to export and funding an initiative to boost | :31:44. | :31:45. | |
management skills across British businesses and taking a first step | :31:46. | :31:49. | |
to tack he will why the long-standing problem of our | :31:50. | :31:52. | |
fastest-growing start-up tech firms being snapped up by bigger | :31:53. | :31:56. | |
companies, rather than growing to scale, bin jecting an initial ?400 | :31:57. | :32:02. | |
million into venture capital funds, through the British business bank, | :32:03. | :32:05. | |
unlocking ?1 billion of new finance for growing firms. | :32:06. | :32:10. | |
And I'm also launching today, a Treasury-led review of the barriers | :32:11. | :32:15. | |
to accessing patient capital in the UK, so that we can take further | :32:16. | :32:20. | |
action to address them. Mr Speaker, this Government | :32:21. | :32:23. | |
recognises that for too long economic growth in our country has | :32:24. | :32:27. | |
been too concentrated in London and the south-east. That is not just a | :32:28. | :32:31. | |
social problem. It's an economic problem. London is one of the | :32:32. | :32:37. | |
highest productivity cities in the world and we should celebrate that | :32:38. | :32:41. | |
fact. But no other major developed economy has such a gap between the | :32:42. | :32:46. | |
productivity of its capital city and its second and third cities. So, we | :32:47. | :32:52. | |
must drive up the performance of our regional cities. Today, we publish | :32:53. | :32:57. | |
our strategy for addressing productivity barriers in the | :32:58. | :33:00. | |
northern powerhouse and give the go-ahead to a programme of major | :33:01. | :33:06. | |
road schemes in the north. Our Midlands engine strategy will follow | :33:07. | :33:10. | |
shortly but I am today providing funding that the evaluation study | :33:11. | :33:14. | |
for the Midlands rail hub can go ahead. In addition, we are investing | :33:15. | :33:18. | |
in local infrastructure in every region of England. I can announce | :33:19. | :33:23. | |
the allocation of ?1.8 billion from the local growth fund, to the | :33:24. | :33:29. | |
English regions. ?556 million to local enterprise partnerships in the | :33:30. | :33:34. | |
north of England, ?542 million to the Midlands and east of England | :33:35. | :33:40. | |
a?683 million to LEPs in the south-west, south-east and London. | :33:41. | :33:43. | |
We will announce the detailed breakdown of allocations to | :33:44. | :33:47. | |
individual LEPs shortly. Devolution, Mr Speaker, remains at the heart of | :33:48. | :33:51. | |
this Government's approach to supporting local growth. And we | :33:52. | :33:57. | |
recommit today to our city deals with Swansea, Edinburgh North Wales | :33:58. | :34:02. | |
and Tie Cities and I can announce today we are beginning negotiations | :34:03. | :34:07. | |
on a city deal for Stirling so every single city in Scotland will be on | :34:08. | :34:13. | |
course to have a city deal. To support new mayoral combined | :34:14. | :34:16. | |
authorities in England, I can announce that we will grant them new | :34:17. | :34:20. | |
borrowing powers, to reflect their new responsibilities. | :34:21. | :34:29. | |
And while we continue discussions in London and the West Midlands on | :34:30. | :34:32. | |
possible consideration of further devolution powers. I can relegal | :34:33. | :34:37. | |
that London will have its share of national affordable housing funding | :34:38. | :34:40. | |
to deliver a commitment of over ?90,000 affordable homes and also | :34:41. | :34:45. | |
that we are devolving to London, the adult education budget and giving | :34:46. | :34:48. | |
London greater control over the delivery of employment support | :34:49. | :34:52. | |
services for the hardest to help. Mr Speaker, I have deliberately | :34:53. | :34:57. | |
avoided making this statement into a long list of individual projects | :34:58. | :35:04. | |
being supported. But... But, I am going to make one | :35:05. | :35:11. | |
exception. I will act today with just seven | :35:12. | :35:18. | |
days to spare, to save one of the UK's most important historic houses, | :35:19. | :35:20. | |
Wentworth wood house neither Rotherham. | :35:21. | :35:27. | |
It is said to be the inspiration for Pemberley in Jane Austin's Pride | :35:28. | :35:32. | |
Prejudice but in 1946, in an extraordinary act of cultural | :35:33. | :35:37. | |
vandalism, the then Labour Government authorised extensive | :35:38. | :35:40. | |
open-cast coal mining, virtually up to the front door of this precious | :35:41. | :35:45. | |
property. Perhaps, Mr Speaker, that's Labour's idea of a northern | :35:46. | :35:51. | |
powerhouse. Wentworth Woodhouse is now at critical risk of being lost | :35:52. | :35:57. | |
to future... THE SPEAKER: It sounds very interesting indeed, the | :35:58. | :36:03. | |
Chancellor. WentworthWoodhouse is at critical | :36:04. | :36:07. | |
risk of being lost to future generations, a local effort has been | :36:08. | :36:12. | |
successful in securing millions of pounds 234 funding from various | :36:13. | :36:14. | |
foundations and charities, subject to the balance required to make the | :36:15. | :36:19. | |
house safe being found by November 30th. So, we will, today, provide a | :36:20. | :36:27. | |
?7.6 million grant towards urgent repairs to safeguard this key piece | :36:28. | :36:32. | |
of northern heritage, all but destroyed by a Labour Government, | :36:33. | :36:33. | |
saved by a Conservative one. I can, also, Mr Speaker, confirm | :36:34. | :36:58. | |
distribution of a further ?102 million of Libor bank fines to Armed | :36:59. | :37:03. | |
Forces and emergency services charities. | :37:04. | :37:06. | |
Including my honourable friends will be pleased to hear, ?20 million to | :37:07. | :37:12. | |
support the defence and national rehabilitation centre at Stamford | :37:13. | :37:16. | |
Hall in Nottinghamshire. As well as ?3 million from the tampon tax fund | :37:17. | :37:20. | |
for Comic Relief to distribute to a range of women's charities. | :37:21. | :37:26. | |
Mr Speaker, we choose to invest in our economic infrastructure, because | :37:27. | :37:29. | |
it can transform the growth potential of our economy, as well as | :37:30. | :37:34. | |
improving the quality of people's lives. But that investment is only | :37:35. | :37:39. | |
possible because we on this side of the House are prepared to take the | :37:40. | :37:44. | |
tough decisions to maintain control of current spending. Every one of | :37:45. | :37:49. | |
them opposed by the party opposite. When we took office in 2010, public | :37:50. | :37:56. | |
spending was 45% of GDP. This year, it is set to be 40%. | :37:57. | :38:00. | |
And during those six years, we've seen crime fall by more than | :38:01. | :38:05. | |
one-quarter. The highest proportion ever of goods or outstanding schools | :38:06. | :38:10. | |
-- good or outstanding schools. The number of doctors has increased by | :38:11. | :38:13. | |
10,000 in NHS. Pensioner poverty at lowest level ever. The lowest ever | :38:14. | :38:19. | |
number of children being raised in workless households and the | :38:20. | :38:22. | |
highest-ever, number of young people going on to study fulltime at | :38:23. | :38:26. | |
university. We have demonstrated, beyond doubt, | :38:27. | :38:31. | |
that controlling public spending is compatible with world class public | :38:32. | :38:33. | |
services, and social improvement. But as the OBR projections | :38:34. | :38:44. | |
demonstrate, we have more work to do to eliminate the deficit. So | :38:45. | :38:48. | |
departmental spending plans, set out in the Spending Review last autumn, | :38:49. | :38:55. | |
will remain in place. And departmental expenditure in 21-22, | :38:56. | :38:59. | |
will grow in line with inflation. The ?3.5 billion of savings to be | :39:00. | :39:03. | |
delivered through the efficiency review, announced at the budget and | :39:04. | :39:10. | |
led Miyamoto right honourable friend the Chief Secretary - and led by my | :39:11. | :39:15. | |
right honourable friend, the chief he can s must go through I have... | :39:16. | :39:24. | |
For increasing the number of prison officers by 2,500. Mr Speaker, | :39:25. | :39:29. | |
having run two large spending departments, in previous roles, I | :39:30. | :39:32. | |
came to this job with some very clear views about the relationship | :39:33. | :39:36. | |
between the Treasury and spending departments. | :39:37. | :39:41. | |
I want departments to be incentivised to drive efficiencies | :39:42. | :39:47. | |
and I want the Treasury to be an enabler for good, effective spending | :39:48. | :39:51. | |
across Government. O to kick start this new approach, I will allow up | :39:52. | :39:56. | |
to ?1 billion of the savings found by the efficiency review, to be | :39:57. | :40:03. | |
reinvested in 19-20 in priority areas and I have budgeted today | :40:04. | :40:07. | |
accordingly. Mr Speaker, we manage public spending so that we can | :40:08. | :40:12. | |
invest in the public's priorities. And this Government has underlined | :40:13. | :40:16. | |
those priorities with a series of commitments and were texts for the | :40:17. | :40:21. | |
duration of this Parliament. And I can confirm today that, despite the | :40:22. | :40:25. | |
fiscal pressure, we will meet our commitments to protect the budgets | :40:26. | :40:29. | |
of key public services and defence. We will keep our promise to the | :40:30. | :40:34. | |
world's poorest through our overseas' aid budget and we will | :40:35. | :40:37. | |
meet our pledge to our country's pensioners through the triple lock. | :40:38. | :40:41. | |
But as we look ahead to the next Parliament, we will need to ensure | :40:42. | :40:47. | |
that we tackle the challenges of rising longevity and fiscal | :40:48. | :40:51. | |
sustainability and, so, the Government will review public | :40:52. | :40:53. | |
spending priorities and other commitments for the next Parliament | :40:54. | :40:58. | |
in light of the evolving fiscal position at the next Spending | :40:59. | :41:00. | |
Review. Mr Speaker, I now turn to taxation. | :41:01. | :41:07. | |
Since 2010 this Government has put a business-led recovery at the heart | :41:08. | :41:12. | |
of our plan. We've cut corporation tax from 28% to 20%. Sending the | :41:13. | :41:17. | |
message that Britain is open for business. | :41:18. | :41:20. | |
The additional investment in productivity and infrastructure that | :41:21. | :41:24. | |
I have announced today, underscores that message, and the raft of | :41:25. | :41:33. | |
investments in the UK announced, since the referendum, by Soffbank, | :41:34. | :41:37. | |
glancing yes, Nissan and others confirms T -- Glaxo. My priority as | :41:38. | :41:43. | |
Chancellor is to ensure that Britain remains the number one destination | :41:44. | :41:46. | |
for business, creating the investment, jobs ands were | :41:47. | :41:51. | |
prosperity to protect our long-term future. I know how much business | :41:52. | :41:55. | |
values certainty and stability. So, I confirm today that we will stick | :41:56. | :41:59. | |
to the business tax road map that we set out in March. Corporation tax | :42:00. | :42:07. | |
will fall to 17%, by far the lowest overall rate of corporate tax in the | :42:08. | :42:10. | |
G20. We will deliver the commitments we have made to the oil and goes | :42:11. | :42:14. | |
sector. The carbon price support will continue to be capped out to | :42:15. | :42:20. | |
2020 and we'll implement the business rates reduction package | :42:21. | :42:24. | |
worth ?6.7 billion. I can also confirm today that, having consulted | :42:25. | :42:28. | |
further, my right honourable friend, the Communities' Secretary, will | :42:29. | :42:32. | |
lower the transitional relief cap from 45% next year, to 43% and from | :42:33. | :42:39. | |
50% to 32% the year after. That's complicated, but it is good news. | :42:40. | :42:52. | |
Just in case anybody wasn't sure, Mr Speaker. | :42:53. | :43:02. | |
InI will also increase, I will also increase the rural rate relief to | :43:03. | :43:08. | |
100%, giving small businesses in rural areas, a tax break worth up to | :43:09. | :43:15. | |
?2,900 per year. Mr Speaker, in return for these highly-competitive | :43:16. | :43:19. | |
tax rates, the tax base must be sustain bible. -- sustainable. | :43:20. | :43:29. | |
We'll align the employee, employer threshold at ?1. 57 per week. There | :43:30. | :43:33. | |
will be no cost to employees and the maximum cost to business will be an | :43:34. | :43:40. | |
annual ?7.18 per employee. Insurance premium tax in this | :43:41. | :43:44. | |
country is lower than in many other European countries and half the rate | :43:45. | :43:49. | |
of VAT. In order to raise revenue, which is required to fund the | :43:50. | :43:53. | |
spending commitments I am making today, it will rise from 10% | :43:54. | :44:00. | |
currently, to 12% from next June. At the same time, I can confirm that | :44:01. | :44:04. | |
the Government's commitment to legislate next year to end the | :44:05. | :44:09. | |
compensation culture surrounding whiplash claims, a major area of | :44:10. | :44:14. | |
insurance fraud and that will save drivers an average of ?40 on their | :44:15. | :44:19. | |
annual premiums. Mr Speaker, technological progress is changing | :44:20. | :44:22. | |
the way people live and the way they work. The tax system needs to keep | :44:23. | :44:28. | |
pace. For example, the OBR has highlighted today the growing cost | :44:29. | :44:33. | |
to the exchequer of incorporation. So, the Government will consider how | :44:34. | :44:37. | |
we can ensure that the taxation of different ways of working is fair | :44:38. | :44:42. | |
between different individuals doing essentially the same work and | :44:43. | :44:46. | |
sustain the tax base as the economy undergoes rapid change. We will | :44:47. | :44:50. | |
consult in due course on any proposed changes. | :44:51. | :44:53. | |
In the meantime, the Government will take action now, to reduce the | :44:54. | :44:57. | |
difference between the treatment of cash earnings and benefits. The | :44:58. | :45:03. | |
majority of employees pay tax on a cash salary, but some are able to | :45:04. | :45:08. | |
sacrifice salary by agreement with their employer, and pay much lower | :45:09. | :45:12. | |
tax on benefits in kind. This is unfair. And, so, from April 2017, | :45:13. | :45:20. | |
employers and employees who use these schemes, will pay the same | :45:21. | :45:22. | |
taxes as everyone else. Following consultation with | :45:23. | :45:31. | |
stakeholders, ultralow emission cars, pension savings, childcare and | :45:32. | :45:36. | |
the cycle to work scheme will be excluded from this change. And | :45:37. | :45:44. | |
certain long-term arrangements will be protected until April 20 21. For | :45:45. | :45:52. | |
pensions that have been drawn down, I will also reduce the ?4000 the | :45:53. | :45:56. | |
money purchase annual allowance to prevent inappropriate double tax | :45:57. | :46:02. | |
relief being gained. This government, Mr Speaker, has done | :46:03. | :46:06. | |
more than any other to tackle tax evasion, avoidance, and aggressive | :46:07. | :46:12. | |
tax planning. And the UK tax gap, it may surprise some honourable members | :46:13. | :46:16. | |
opposite to hear, is now one of the lowest in the world. But we must | :46:17. | :46:22. | |
constantly be alerted to new threats to our tax base and be willing to | :46:23. | :46:27. | |
move swiftly to counter them. At the budget we committed to removing the | :46:28. | :46:31. | |
tax benefits of disguised earnings for employees. And I'm now going to | :46:32. | :46:36. | |
do the same for the self-employed and employers, raising a further | :46:37. | :46:40. | |
?630 million over the forecast period. We will shut down | :46:41. | :46:45. | |
inappropriate use of the VAT flat rate scheme that was put in place to | :46:46. | :46:50. | |
help small businesses. We will abolish the tax advantages linked to | :46:51. | :46:53. | |
employee shareholder status in response to growing status that it | :46:54. | :46:57. | |
is being primarily used for tax planning purposes by high earning | :46:58. | :47:01. | |
individuals. And we will introduce a new penalty for those who enabled | :47:02. | :47:07. | |
the use of tax avoidance scheme that HMRC later challenges and defeats. | :47:08. | :47:12. | |
These measures and others set out in the Autumn Statement document raise | :47:13. | :47:17. | |
around ?2 billion over the forecast period. Mr Speaker, there is | :47:18. | :47:22. | |
understandable public concern that the pitch is tilted in favour of | :47:23. | :47:28. | |
large multinational groups. Which are able to use cross-border | :47:29. | :47:30. | |
structures to manage their tax liabilities. Following detailed | :47:31. | :47:36. | |
concentration Daly consultation I can confirm we will implement a | :47:37. | :47:43. | |
programme and reform the way that releases awarded for historic | :47:44. | :47:47. | |
losses. These measured scored at the budget 2016 will help to ensure | :47:48. | :47:51. | |
large businesses will always pay tax in years where they make substantial | :47:52. | :47:55. | |
profits. It will also mean that businesses cannot avoid tax by | :47:56. | :48:00. | |
borrowing excessively in the UK to fund their overseas activities. They | :48:01. | :48:05. | |
take effect in April and raise over ?5 billion from the largest | :48:06. | :48:10. | |
businesses in the UK. Mr Speaker, I said that the tax system must be | :48:11. | :48:14. | |
fair, and that means rewarding those who work hard by helping them to | :48:15. | :48:19. | |
keep more of what they earn. And there is one tax reform this | :48:20. | :48:23. | |
government has pursued since 2010 that has done more than any other to | :48:24. | :48:28. | |
improve the lot of working people, raising the tax-free personal | :48:29. | :48:33. | |
allowance. When we entered government in 2010 it was ?6,475. | :48:34. | :48:42. | |
Now after six years it is ?11,000 and will rise to ?11,500 in April. | :48:43. | :48:48. | |
As a result we have more than halved the tax bill of someone of a salary | :48:49. | :48:55. | |
with ?15,000 to just ?800. That is a massive boost to the incomes of low | :48:56. | :49:01. | |
and middle earners. Since 2010 we have cut income tax for 38 million | :49:02. | :49:11. | |
people and taken 4 million people out of income tax altogether. I can | :49:12. | :49:16. | |
confirm today that despite the talent in fiscal forecasts we will | :49:17. | :49:20. | |
deliver on our commitment to raising the allowance to ?12,500 and the | :49:21. | :49:25. | |
higher rate threshold to ?50,000 by the end of this Parliament. Once | :49:26. | :49:33. | |
that ?12,500 has been reached, Mr Speaker, the personal allowance will | :49:34. | :49:37. | |
rise automatically during the 20 20s in line with inflation rather than | :49:38. | :49:39. | |
the national minimum wage as currently planned. It will be for | :49:40. | :49:45. | |
the Chancellor to decide from year to year where the moor is | :49:46. | :49:50. | |
affordable. As well as taking millions of ordinary people out of | :49:51. | :49:53. | |
tax, we are the government that introduced the National Living Wage. | :49:54. | :50:00. | |
Gave a pay rise, Mr Speaker, to over a million workers. They don't like | :50:01. | :50:05. | |
it. A Tory government gave a pay rise to over a million of the lowest | :50:06. | :50:12. | |
paid workers. We are the government that introduced 15 hours a week of | :50:13. | :50:18. | |
free childcare for all three and four-year-olds and will double that | :50:19. | :50:22. | |
for working families from September. The government whose education | :50:23. | :50:24. | |
reforms have raised standards and expanded opportunity with 1.4 | :50:25. | :50:28. | |
million more children now in good or outstanding schools. The new capital | :50:29. | :50:34. | |
funding is provided today for grammar schools will help to | :50:35. | :50:40. | |
continue that trend. And we, Mr Speaker, are the government had | :50:41. | :50:44. | |
pledged to invest in our NHS, and we are delivering on that promise. Back | :50:45. | :50:48. | |
in the NHS five-year forward plan for the future with ?10 billion of | :50:49. | :50:56. | |
additional funding by the end of 2020-2021. But we recognise that | :50:57. | :51:00. | |
more needs to be done to help families make ends meet and to | :51:01. | :51:06. | |
ensure that every household has opportunities to prosper. So today I | :51:07. | :51:08. | |
can announce that the National Living Wage will increase from | :51:09. | :51:14. | |
?7.20, ?27.50 in April next year. That's a pay rise worth over ?500 to | :51:15. | :51:25. | |
a full time work. Mr Speaker, creating jobs, lowering taxes and | :51:26. | :51:30. | |
raising wages addresses directly the concerns of ordinary families. And | :51:31. | :51:34. | |
the revenue raising measures that I've announced today enable me to go | :51:35. | :51:39. | |
further to help families on low wages. Universal credit is an | :51:40. | :51:47. | |
important reform to our benefit system and is designed to make sure | :51:48. | :51:55. | |
that work always pays. We want to reinforce that position. I have | :51:56. | :51:59. | |
considered carefully the arguments made by my right honourable friend | :52:00. | :52:05. | |
's and wake them colourfully against the fiscal constraints we are | :52:06. | :52:10. | |
facing. -- weighed them carefully. I have concluded that from April we | :52:11. | :52:15. | |
can reduce the universal credit data rate from 65%, to 63%. This is | :52:16. | :52:21. | |
effectively a targeted tax cut worth ?700 million a year by 21-22 for | :52:22. | :52:28. | |
those in work on low incomes. It will increase the incentive to work | :52:29. | :52:35. | |
and encourage progression in work, and it will help 3 million | :52:36. | :52:40. | |
households across our country. Mr Speaker, we believe that a market | :52:41. | :52:45. | |
economy is the best way of delivering sustained prosperity for | :52:46. | :52:49. | |
the British people. We will always support a market led approach. But | :52:50. | :52:55. | |
we will not be afraid to intervene where there is evidence of market | :52:56. | :52:59. | |
failure. We will look carefully over the coming months and the | :53:00. | :53:05. | |
functioning of key markets including the retail energy market to make | :53:06. | :53:07. | |
sure they are functioning fairly for all consumers. And in the private | :53:08. | :53:12. | |
rental market, letting agents are currently able to charge unregulated | :53:13. | :53:18. | |
fees to tenants. We've seen these fees spiral despite attempts to | :53:19. | :53:26. | |
regulate them, often ?200. This is wrong. Landlords appoint letting | :53:27. | :53:32. | |
agents and landlords should meet their fees. We will ban fees to | :53:33. | :53:38. | |
tenants as soon as possible. And also, Mr Speaker, we will consult on | :53:39. | :53:43. | |
how best to ban pensions cold calling and a wider range of | :53:44. | :53:47. | |
pensions scams. We can also help today those who rely on income from | :53:48. | :53:51. | |
modest savings to get by. Low interest rates have helped our | :53:52. | :53:56. | |
economy recover but they've significantly reduced the interest | :53:57. | :53:59. | |
people can learn on their cash savings. So we will launch a new | :54:00. | :54:06. | |
market leading savings bond through endless and I. The detail will be | :54:07. | :54:10. | |
announced at the budget, but we expect our new investment bond will | :54:11. | :54:14. | |
have an interest rate of around 2.2% gross and a term of three years. | :54:15. | :54:20. | |
Savers will be able to deposit up to ?3000, and we expect around 2 | :54:21. | :54:27. | |
million people to benefit. The announcements I have made today | :54:28. | :54:32. | |
lower taxes on working people, boost wages, back Savers, and bear down on | :54:33. | :54:39. | |
bills. In early 2017, we will begin the roll-out of tax free childcare | :54:40. | :54:43. | |
across Britain providing up to ?2000 savings per child. Once rolled out, | :54:44. | :54:49. | |
we pledge to keep it under review to ensure that it is delivering the | :54:50. | :54:53. | |
support they need to working families. There is one further area | :54:54. | :54:59. | |
of household expenditure where the government can help. The oil price | :55:00. | :55:05. | |
has risen by over 60% since January and sterling has declined by 15% | :55:06. | :55:11. | |
against the dollar. That means significant pressure on prices at | :55:12. | :55:16. | |
the pumps here in Britain. So today we stand on the side of millions of | :55:17. | :55:20. | |
hard-working people in our country by cancelling the fuel duty rise for | :55:21. | :55:29. | |
the seventh successive year. In total this saves the average car | :55:30. | :55:33. | |
driver ?130 per year and the average fan driver ?350 per year. This is a | :55:34. | :55:43. | |
tax cut worth ?850 million next year, Mr Speaker, and means the | :55:44. | :55:47. | |
current fuel duty frees is the longest for 40 years. Mr Speaker, I | :55:48. | :55:56. | |
have one further announcement to make. This is my first Autumn | :55:57. | :56:00. | |
Statement as Chancellor. After careful consideration and detailed | :56:01. | :56:05. | |
discussion with the Prime Minister, I have decided that it will also be | :56:06. | :56:12. | |
my last. Mr Speaker, I am abolishing the Autumn Statement. No other major | :56:13. | :56:23. | |
economy makes hundreds of tax changes twice a year and neither | :56:24. | :56:29. | |
should we. So the spring budget in a few months will be the final spring | :56:30. | :56:34. | |
budget. Starting in autumn 2017 Britain will have an autumn budget | :56:35. | :56:41. | |
announcing tax changes well in advance of the start of the tax | :56:42. | :56:45. | |
year. From 2018 there will be a spring statement responding to the | :56:46. | :56:55. | |
forecast... LAUGHTER Perhaps they should have read their | :56:56. | :57:15. | |
briefing. What a great state of emotion, some people are very easily | :57:16. | :57:19. | |
humoured, but we must hear the Chancellor. Perhaps they should have | :57:20. | :57:23. | |
read their briefing because they might remember that Parliament has | :57:24. | :57:27. | |
mandated the Office for Budget Responsibility to produce a report | :57:28. | :57:32. | |
to Parliament twice a year and has mandated the government to reply to | :57:33. | :57:37. | |
it. From 2018 there will be a spring statement responding to the forecast | :57:38. | :57:40. | |
from the OBR but no major fiscal event. If unexpected changes in the | :57:41. | :57:46. | |
economy require it I will of course reserve the right to announce | :57:47. | :57:51. | |
actions at the spring statement, but I will not make significant changes | :57:52. | :57:55. | |
twice a year just for the sake of it. This change will allow for | :57:56. | :58:02. | |
greater parliamentary scrutiny of budget measures ahead of their | :58:03. | :58:07. | |
implementation. Mr Speaker, this is a long overdue reform to our tax | :58:08. | :58:13. | |
policy making process and brings the UK into line with best practice | :58:14. | :58:19. | |
recommended by the IMF, the ISS, the Institute for government and many | :58:20. | :58:26. | |
others. Mr Speaker, the OBR report today confirms the underlying | :58:27. | :58:29. | |
strength and resilience of the British economy. This Autumn | :58:30. | :58:34. | |
Statement responds to the challenge of building on that strength while | :58:35. | :58:39. | |
also heeding the warnings in the OBR's figures as we begin writing | :58:40. | :58:44. | |
this new chapter in our country's history. It restates our commitment | :58:45. | :58:50. | |
to living within our means and sets out our choice to invest in our | :58:51. | :58:57. | |
future. It sends a clear message to the world that Britain is open for | :58:58. | :59:02. | |
business and it provides help to those who need it now. So, Mr | :59:03. | :59:07. | |
Speaker, we have made our choices, we have set our course, we are great | :59:08. | :59:12. | |
nation. Bold in our vision, confident in our strengths, and | :59:13. | :59:19. | |
determined in our ambition to build a country that works for everyone. | :59:20. | :59:27. | |
STUDIO: So that was the Chancellor. This is now the Shadow Chancellor's | :59:28. | :59:32. | |
response. This morning we have heard the | :59:33. | :59:42. | |
verdict from the trial following the tragic murder of Jo Cox. Jo Cox's | :59:43. | :59:48. | |
murder robs this house of a fierce advocate for social justice and a | :59:49. | :59:54. | |
passionate campaigner. Her killing was an attack on democracy itself. | :59:55. | :59:59. | |
Our thoughts are with her family this morning. Mr Speaker, today's | :00:00. | :00:07. | |
statement places on record the abject failure of the last six | :00:08. | :00:14. | |
wasted years and offers no hope for the future. The figures speak for | :00:15. | :00:21. | |
themselves. Growth, down. Wage growth, down. Business investment, | :00:22. | :00:25. | |
down. And their own deficit target failed. | :00:26. | :00:38. | |
The debt target failed. The welfare cap failed. We have heard today, Mr | :00:39. | :00:49. | |
Speaker... If members on either side want to shout out, don't bother to | :00:50. | :00:52. | |
stand because he won't be called. I say that two members on both sides. | :00:53. | :00:59. | |
Stop it. It is juvenile, low-grade, and hugely deprecated by the public. | :01:00. | :01:04. | |
Whose support we should be seeking and whom we should try to impress, | :01:05. | :01:12. | |
not to repower. Thank you Mr Speaker. There will be more taxes, | :01:13. | :01:17. | |
more debt, and more borrowing. The verdict could not be clearer. The | :01:18. | :01:21. | |
so-called long-term economic plan has failed. As the Treasury is only | :01:22. | :01:28. | |
leaked paper failed, the government knew it had failed before the | :01:29. | :01:33. | |
referendum result was announced. And we now face Brexit. The greatest | :01:34. | :01:36. | |
economic challenge of a generation and we face it unprepared and | :01:37. | :01:41. | |
ill-equipped. The new Chancellor acknowledged the fact himself in | :01:42. | :01:48. | |
October when he promised a reset of economic policy. So today we | :01:49. | :01:54. | |
expected a change of direction after those six wasted years. Instead, we | :01:55. | :01:58. | |
have seen further cuts to earnings for those in work to Universal | :01:59. | :02:03. | |
Credit. And a living wage increase that is lower than expected under | :02:04. | :02:08. | |
the previous Chancellor. This is a new Conservative leadership with no | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
answers to the challenges facing our country following Brexit and no | :02:13. | :02:14. | |
vision to secure our future prosperity. Just turning to Brexit, | :02:15. | :02:20. | |
Labour respect the decision of the British people to leave the European | :02:21. | :02:24. | |
Union. But the Celtic Tory handling of Brexit threatens the future | :02:25. | :02:31. | |
prosperity of this country. The Chancellor must do the right thing | :02:32. | :02:34. | |
for British workers and businesses and incest on full tariff free | :02:35. | :02:41. | |
access to the single market. He and the Treasury know that's what will | :02:42. | :02:44. | |
give the best deal for jobs and prosperity here. I will just say it | :02:45. | :02:50. | |
may not be in the Chancellor's nature but I urge him to stand up to | :02:51. | :02:55. | |
the Prime Minister and the extreme Brexit fanatics in her Cabinet. If | :02:56. | :02:59. | |
he stands up for British businesses and jobs, fighting for single market | :03:00. | :03:04. | |
access, he will have our full support. After six wasted years, | :03:05. | :03:17. | |
wages are still lower than 2008. Self-employed people are on average | :03:18. | :03:21. | |
paid less than a generation ago. 6 million people are earning less than | :03:22. | :03:24. | |
the living wage. Too many people are having to worry about buying school | :03:25. | :03:29. | |
uniforms, affording a family holiday or paying the rent and mortgage. We | :03:30. | :03:35. | |
have had one month of briefing from the party opposite on those people | :03:36. | :03:41. | |
who are called Just About Managing, the Jams. To the party opposite, | :03:42. | :03:44. | |
these people are just a demographic. To us, they are our friends, | :03:45. | :03:52. | |
neighbours and the people we represent. Let me tell you what they | :03:53. | :04:01. | |
are, why they are just managing, it is the results of Tories imposing | :04:02. | :04:08. | |
austerity on the economy that couldn't bear the strain. We have | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
seen productivity stagnate. But there's nothing in this Autumn | :04:13. | :04:15. | |
Statement on the scale needed to overturn those six wasted years. If | :04:16. | :04:20. | |
the Chancellor really wants to make a fair tax system as well, we can | :04:21. | :04:23. | |
start by bringing back the 50p rate for the very richest in our country. | :04:24. | :04:31. | |
And it's familiar hollow rhetoric from the Tories on tax avoidance | :04:32. | :04:36. | |
when they have cut the resources at HMRC, the very people who collect | :04:37. | :04:42. | |
the taxes themselves. Resources available to HMRC today are 40% less | :04:43. | :04:50. | |
than they were in 2000. The Chancellor has frozen in work | :04:51. | :04:53. | |
benefits at a time when food prices are rising and we don't expect wages | :04:54. | :05:00. | |
to keep up. We need an economy that is fundamentally more prosperous and | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
where that prosperity is, yes, shared by all. The increase in the | :05:05. | :05:10. | |
national living wage announced today is actually lower than expected and | :05:11. | :05:13. | |
leave the poorest paid workers still earning less than they need to live | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
on. So I ask the Chancellor to adopt a real living wage level as Labour | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
has pledged to do and abandon his predecessors empty rhetoric. | :05:24. | :05:27. | |
Regrettably, the Chancellor is still going ahead with some of the cuts to | :05:28. | :05:33. | |
Universal Credit. Thanks to the pressure, I'd paid tribute to those | :05:34. | :05:37. | |
MPs on all sides of the house who have campaigned on this issue, | :05:38. | :05:40. | |
thanks to that pressure, is offering to soften the blow. We don't want to | :05:41. | :05:44. | |
blow softened. We wanted lifted altogether. Today's changes will | :05:45. | :05:51. | |
lead a single parent on average at least ?2300 worse off. These are the | :05:52. | :05:57. | |
very people who are working hard to deliver for their families and the | :05:58. | :06:05. | |
government is betraying them. As for the people on disability is put | :06:06. | :06:09. | |
through the ordeal of the discredited work capability | :06:10. | :06:11. | |
assessment, who are trying to get themselves ready to return to work, | :06:12. | :06:17. | |
just about managing, they still remain in the Chancellor's firing | :06:18. | :06:23. | |
line. Cutting ?30 a week from the support that these disabled people | :06:24. | :06:27. | |
receive. It is scandalous. In our society. Those who are just about | :06:28. | :06:36. | |
managing, also rely upon our public services. They send their children | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
to local schools, they depend on their local hospital, they rely on | :06:42. | :06:47. | |
their council services like cleaning the streets, tending to their parks | :06:48. | :06:50. | |
and playgrounds, and opening their libraries. But the reality, is, | :06:51. | :06:56. | |
after six wasted years, our public services are just not managing. | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
Today the childcare that parents rely on remains underfunded as the | :07:02. | :07:06. | |
Public Accounts Committee has reported and it will remain | :07:07. | :07:08. | |
underfunded even after the announcements today. I want to pay | :07:09. | :07:14. | |
tribute as well to the honourable members for Swansea East and | :07:15. | :07:18. | |
Thamesmead for their important work in bringing the issue of child | :07:19. | :07:22. | |
burial fees to public attention. And I ask the government to do the right | :07:23. | :07:29. | |
thing in child burial fees and reconsider making funding available | :07:30. | :07:31. | |
for families in these desperate circumstances. Councillors from all | :07:32. | :07:40. | |
political parties are reporting that they are at a tipping point in the | :07:41. | :07:47. | |
provision of social care. The previous Chancellor cut nearly ?5 | :07:48. | :07:50. | |
billion from social care meaning now that over 1 million people who need | :07:51. | :07:56. | |
care are not getting it. They are not even just about managing, and | :07:57. | :08:02. | |
they have got little help today. We call for additional support for | :08:03. | :08:07. | |
social care. But the funding being provided today is only a stopgap | :08:08. | :08:13. | |
measure. Our social care system will not be secured without long-term | :08:14. | :08:17. | |
funding. Tonight, many elderly people will remain trapped in their | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
homes isolated and lonely, lacking the care they need, because of this | :08:23. | :08:27. | |
continuing cut to social care. You can't cut social care without also | :08:28. | :08:34. | |
heading the NHS. The suppose it 10 billion funding allocated is a | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
restatement of an earlier commitment but the health select committee | :08:40. | :08:46. | |
described as trembling pound as, " misleading and incorrect -- ?10 | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
billion. The real amount is less than half that amount. The result, | :08:52. | :08:58. | |
we now have 3.9 million people on NHS waiting lists. More than ever. | :08:59. | :09:05. | |
Many of those at 3.9 million are waiting in pain and they have got no | :09:06. | :09:11. | |
relief today. No relief today. Across the country, hospitals are | :09:12. | :09:16. | |
facing losing their accident and emergency units, losing their | :09:17. | :09:19. | |
maternity units, and losing their specialist units. This Tory | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
government is failing patients and also failing the dedicated NHS staff | :09:25. | :09:29. | |
that service them so well. This is the first time health care spending | :09:30. | :09:35. | |
per head has declined since the NHS was created. I fear there will be a | :09:36. | :09:41. | |
crisis in funding in care over this Christmas. The NHS cares for us. We | :09:42. | :09:51. | |
should care for the NHS. On education, members of this | :09:52. | :09:54. | |
government have also overseen the biggest real terms cuts in education | :09:55. | :10:01. | |
for four decades. ?1 in every seven has been cut from college budgets | :10:02. | :10:07. | |
and Conservative policy has saddled a generation of students with a | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
lifetime of debt. How can a government seriously talk about | :10:12. | :10:15. | |
supporting a 21st-century economy when they are planning to put tens | :10:16. | :10:22. | |
of millions into the failed 20th-century policy of grammar | :10:23. | :10:25. | |
schools? Segregating our children at an early age. On housing, the | :10:26. | :10:33. | |
Chancellor announced today he is scrapping proposals on letting | :10:34. | :10:36. | |
agents fees. This U-turn is a victory for Labour's campaign | :10:37. | :10:39. | |
against both the tenant tax and letting fees. The Chancellor has | :10:40. | :10:46. | |
spoken before the dream of home ownership for the young. Nothing | :10:47. | :10:51. | |
announced today is the scale needed to suggest it will remain anything | :10:52. | :10:57. | |
other than a dream. The hard facts are these. The government, of which | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
he is a member, built fewer homes that anyone since the 1920s. They | :11:03. | :11:08. | |
are now a third of the fuel -- there are a third of a million homeowners | :11:09. | :11:12. | |
under 35. The Chancellor could have delivered today the scale of | :11:13. | :11:15. | |
investment required to build the homes we need and create a new | :11:16. | :11:20. | |
generation of home ownership. He significantly failed. I am grateful, | :11:21. | :11:26. | |
as a result of the campaign from the honourable member, that the | :11:27. | :11:33. | |
Wentworth building will be saved. I am grateful. The accusation was that | :11:34. | :11:39. | |
a Labour government opened an opencast mine near to it and | :11:40. | :11:43. | |
threatened it. That was a Labour government in 1947, I believe. I | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
just wish... LAUGHTER | :11:49. | :11:55. | |
I just wish... Some of the policies pursued by Tory governments since | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
the 1950s could be reversed so easily. The biggest failure of | :12:01. | :12:03. | |
investments is this. The Chancellor has failed to address properly this | :12:04. | :12:10. | |
government's most consistent shortcoming. His predecessor cut | :12:11. | :12:13. | |
public investment to the lowest it has been since the 1990s. Instead of | :12:14. | :12:18. | |
delivering the ambitious investment this economy needs, across the whole | :12:19. | :12:22. | |
country, the Chancellor has failed to recognise the scale of the | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
challenge today. He also risks repeating the mistakes from last | :12:27. | :12:31. | |
year with a national flood resilience plan failing to provide | :12:32. | :12:36. | |
the protection our communities need. Just one in five of the project in | :12:37. | :12:40. | |
the investment pipeline are under construction. And there are 82 | :12:41. | :12:47. | |
billion shovel ready projects still delayed. The infrastructure gap | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
between London and the rest remains unbridgeable top London was | :12:52. | :12:54. | |
scheduled to receive 12 times the public investment per head of the | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
North East of England. But the 1.1 billion of investment in transport | :13:00. | :13:05. | |
is a re-announcement, the Oxford to Cambridge rail link is delayed | :13:06. | :13:08. | |
significantly against Network Rail 's original planned completion date | :13:09. | :13:15. | |
of March 2000 and 19. There are just no new ideas here -- 2019. Just what | :13:16. | :13:21. | |
they've previously failed to deliver on. This is press release policy and | :13:22. | :13:27. | |
not provision. All we need now is the return of the high viz jacket. | :13:28. | :13:32. | |
The fourth Industrial Revolution will not be delivered on delays, on | :13:33. | :13:44. | |
old news and re-announcements. At last, the government has realised | :13:45. | :13:46. | |
its mistake and now talk about an industrial strategy, words that | :13:47. | :13:51. | |
ministers refused to even referred to in the past. But it isn't enough | :13:52. | :13:57. | |
to just change a few ministerial titles. The government and the | :13:58. | :14:00. | |
Chancellor need to deliver. But we have yet to see the proposed green | :14:01. | :14:03. | |
paper on industrial strategy promised over the summer. The same | :14:04. | :14:09. | |
government that no talks also of high-tech investment oversaw a ?1 | :14:10. | :14:15. | |
billion cut in real terms to funding in the last parliament for them the | :14:16. | :14:20. | |
OECD recommends developed countries should be spending 3% of GDP on | :14:21. | :14:25. | |
science. And what we have heard today, the new spending will lift | :14:26. | :14:31. | |
our expenditure from 1.7% of GDP to a mere 1.8%. And it's the same | :14:32. | :14:36. | |
familiar story for business. The Chancellor is continuing the race to | :14:37. | :14:40. | |
the bottom on corporation tax while continuing to cut public services, | :14:41. | :14:46. | |
the Chancellor is cutting taxes too busy business. -- big business. We | :14:47. | :14:52. | |
know it's not the headline tax rate which encourage long-term investment | :14:53. | :14:55. | |
from businesses. Business investment has been revised down every year | :14:56. | :15:00. | |
under this government. What encourages business investment is | :15:01. | :15:02. | |
knowing they have accessed as rule workers, world-class infrastructure | :15:03. | :15:09. | |
and a major market. Today's grim economic forecast show the challenge | :15:10. | :15:13. | |
ahead. The Chancellor admitted over the summer it was time for a change | :15:14. | :15:18. | |
of course. He has now had to abandon his government's fiscal charter with | :15:19. | :15:19. | |
its failed hard surplus Labour warned this would lack | :15:20. | :15:33. | |
flexibility to adapt or economic circumstances and the capacity to | :15:34. | :15:38. | |
allow investment. The U-turn today shows how right we have been over | :15:39. | :15:45. | |
the last year. In conclusion, only weeks ago, the Prime Minister | :15:46. | :15:50. | |
offered a hope of change. The Chancellor offered to reset economic | :15:51. | :15:55. | |
policy. Today we have seen the very people the Prime Minister promised | :15:56. | :16:00. | |
to champion betrayed. The Chancellor has failed to break with the | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
economic strategy of posterity. The country remains unprepared and | :16:06. | :16:08. | |
ill-equipped to meet the challenges are Brexit and ensure Britain's | :16:09. | :16:12. | |
future as a world leading economy. After all the sacrifices people have | :16:13. | :16:21. | |
made over the last six years, I feel today's statement has laid the | :16:22. | :16:25. | |
foundations for more wasted years. Only a Labour government will | :16:26. | :16:28. | |
deliver on the ambition and vision to rebuild and transform an economy | :16:29. | :16:39. | |
so that no one and no community is left behind. Mr Speaker, can I first | :16:40. | :16:46. | |
associate myself... We leave the House of | :16:47. | :16:56. | |
Commons but debate on the Autumn Statement continues in the chamber. | :16:57. | :17:05. | |
Let's take you through the headlines. We start with the growth | :17:06. | :17:09. | |
forecast. A lot follows from this. They are now forecasting growth of | :17:10. | :17:15. | |
2.1% a sheer, 1.4 next, 1.7, and then it goes back to 2.1, 2.1 and | :17:16. | :17:23. | |
then 2021, they do not really know but they say 2%. A dip in the next | :17:24. | :17:29. | |
two years and then back to trend in the outer years. Because of the dip | :17:30. | :17:32. | |
there are implications for borrowing. In every year, the | :17:33. | :17:37. | |
Chancellor has forecast more borrowing. 68 billion in 2016/17 and | :17:38. | :17:48. | |
then 59 and then 46.5 in 21 /20 two. That is well over ?100 billion he | :17:49. | :17:52. | |
plans to borrow between now and the start of the next decade. It then | :17:53. | :17:59. | |
follows because of that that government debt rises. You borrow | :18:00. | :18:03. | |
more, it all adds to the national debt. The national debt will now | :18:04. | :18:12. | |
peek at 90% of GDP, just over, by 2017/ 18. That means that 12 years | :18:13. | :18:18. | |
after the great crash, debt is still rising and only begins to fall after | :18:19. | :18:24. | |
that. 12 years of rising debt as a percentage of GDP. The new target | :18:25. | :18:28. | |
for debt now, though it is an old one as well, is to see it falling as | :18:29. | :18:35. | |
a share of GDP by the end of this Parliament. So it peaks up to 90%. | :18:36. | :18:41. | |
That is a lot of GDP and then begins to start to fall in the Algiers. | :18:42. | :18:45. | |
Cyclic Lee adjusted borrowing should be below 2% there's the Chancellor | :18:46. | :18:56. | |
by 2020. -- out years. He will start to get control of the deficit and | :18:57. | :19:01. | |
get it down. The National Living Wage will rise to ?7 50 an hour next | :19:02. | :19:06. | |
April. Fuel duty rise is cancelled. That seems to happen every year now. | :19:07. | :19:13. | |
Universal Credit taper, a marginal rate of tax that people on welfare | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
and working pay when they lose benefits and get more pay, that is | :19:18. | :19:23. | |
seduced by a very small amount from 65% to 63. -- that is reduced. What | :19:24. | :19:30. | |
was leaked in the papers this morning, the upfront letting agency | :19:31. | :19:34. | |
fees are banned in England. They have already been banned in | :19:35. | :19:38. | |
Scotland. A number of tax announcements. Corporation tax will | :19:39. | :19:43. | |
fall as the Government has told us before to 17%. It is currently I | :19:44. | :19:49. | |
think 20, maybe 19 has been reduced to, but it is going down to 17. He | :19:50. | :19:55. | |
hopes to raise another 2 billion by targeting more tax avoidance | :19:56. | :19:58. | |
schemes. That tends to be mentioned in every budget or Autumn Statement. | :19:59. | :20:10. | |
Because he is looking at ways to raise more money and not see that | :20:11. | :20:13. | |
deficit rise by even more, having to borrow more, he is increasing the | :20:14. | :20:16. | |
insurance premium tax to increase from 10% to 12%. You will pay that | :20:17. | :20:19. | |
from June of next year. On housing, we were told there would be a number | :20:20. | :20:24. | |
of announcements on housing. He is putting in 1.4 billion to help build | :20:25. | :20:30. | |
40,000 new affordable homes. That is spread over time. This year it was a | :20:31. | :20:34. | |
very small number of affordable homes being built. He has also | :20:35. | :20:40. | |
announced a 2.3 billion housing infrastructure fund to help build | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
thousands of new homes. That is spread over a number of years. Right | :20:45. | :20:50. | |
to buy was a policy of the previous Chancellor and of the Prime Minister | :20:51. | :20:53. | |
but they are not going ahead across the country. They are going to look | :20:54. | :20:59. | |
at a large scale regional pilot to allow housing association tenants to | :21:00. | :21:05. | |
buy their homes. On transport, he is a former Transport Secretary, so we | :21:06. | :21:10. | |
expected a fair bit on transport. He announced a 1.3 billion package to | :21:11. | :21:14. | |
improve English local transport. Sounds a lot but it is only .08% of | :21:15. | :21:22. | |
GDP. There will be 450 million for a trial of digital signalling on | :21:23. | :21:28. | |
railways, 394 low emission vehicles. The kind of thing that chancellors | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
always liked to pad out their budgets on their Autumn Statement | :21:34. | :21:39. | |
is. There are consequences of these announcements for the rest of the | :21:40. | :21:42. | |
UK. Under the devolution settlement is clad in Northern Ireland would | :21:43. | :21:47. | |
get an extra 250 million a year, Wales 400 and Scotland 800 million a | :21:48. | :21:52. | |
year. There is to be 1.8 billion from local growth elements for | :21:53. | :21:57. | |
infrastructure in the English regions. New borrowing powers for | :21:58. | :22:04. | |
mayoral combined authorities. The Government is trying to encourage | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
big cities to have elected mayors. Saying if you do that and combined | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
we will let you borrow more. For business, the Chancellor announced | :22:14. | :22:18. | |
there was a 6.7 billion package to reduce business rates. This ?23 | :22:19. | :22:25. | |
billion for the new productivity investment fund over five years. How | :22:26. | :22:29. | |
much of that is new money we will discuss. It works out at about 4.5 | :22:30. | :22:36. | |
billion a year. Looks a lot bigger when you save 23 billion. There will | :22:37. | :22:41. | |
be an extra 400 million to unlock a billion funding for start up tech | :22:42. | :22:45. | |
schemes. The kind of announcement we are used to seeing in these sort of | :22:46. | :22:50. | |
events. Other measures, we have a lot of measures. The Chancellor said | :22:51. | :22:54. | |
he was not going to make it a big deal but actually was. Billing | :22:55. | :23:02. | |
funding for digital infrastructure, including 5G mobile. -- billion | :23:03. | :23:10. | |
funding. Infrastructure will rise from 2020. That will leave the | :23:11. | :23:17. | |
United Kingdom still quite low. What we have already heard from the Prime | :23:18. | :23:21. | |
Minister, an extra 2 billion a year for research and develop and by | :23:22. | :23:26. | |
2020. So, it slowly builds up in the rest of this decade. Another 2 | :23:27. | :23:33. | |
billion for our and D. Kind of infrastructure, productivity, trying | :23:34. | :23:36. | |
to invest in the future. The Chancellor also announced that was | :23:37. | :23:42. | |
the last Autumn Statement. Quite an historic event, you might think. | :23:43. | :23:46. | |
Instead he said there would now be a spring statement, starting next | :23:47. | :23:50. | |
year. So, what she will ask of the budget? That is moving to the | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
autumn. So, in a way, nothing much really changes. We still have a | :23:57. | :24:00. | |
statement and a budget, one each, every year. We are joined by the man | :24:01. | :24:09. | |
who gets to mark the Chancellor's homework. We will come to him in a | :24:10. | :24:15. | |
minute. Laura, give me your overview of what we have heard? It was a | :24:16. | :24:20. | |
low-key presentation from a low-key Chancellor with quite a dramatic | :24:21. | :24:23. | |
picture behind it. The dramatic picture that, instead of being in | :24:24. | :24:27. | |
the black as was expected by the end of this Parliament, as the country | :24:28. | :24:31. | |
will be much more in the red. The surplus has gone and will be well | :24:32. | :24:35. | |
over more than 20 billion. The deficit still hanging around like a | :24:36. | :24:39. | |
bad spell as we head into the next general election, if these forecasts | :24:40. | :24:45. | |
are right. Borrowing is back. This looks very different from the | :24:46. | :24:50. | |
planned George Osborne put forward just a few short months ago. The | :24:51. | :24:55. | |
straitjacket on public spending is a bit looser. Those new rules, not | :24:56. | :24:59. | |
that different to those of Ed Miliband. Philip Hammond made a | :25:00. | :25:07. | |
concerted effort to try to show the long-term plan, long-term | :25:08. | :25:10. | |
infrastructure by his long-term ambitions for the economy. There was | :25:11. | :25:13. | |
a Conservative effort to make this add up to a political narrative. I | :25:14. | :25:17. | |
am not sure how convincing this is as a set of measures that will | :25:18. | :25:23. | |
really help people out there who, as Theresa May has identified, are just | :25:24. | :25:27. | |
managing to get by. Nothing very dramatic on the giveaway site. A lot | :25:28. | :25:32. | |
of drama on how the picture has changed. The thing that struck me, | :25:33. | :25:40. | |
he is now saying grows... OBR is saying economic growth will be 2.1% | :25:41. | :25:44. | |
this year, then it full is to one point for next year and 1.7 is | :25:45. | :25:49. | |
forecast the year after. Then it rises back up again to over 2%. His | :25:50. | :25:55. | |
financial position deteriorates because of the two coming years. If | :25:56. | :26:00. | |
the OBR is wrong and if it turns out that growth stays at around 2% to | :26:01. | :26:04. | |
almost every one of these figures he has given us today will turn out not | :26:05. | :26:11. | |
to be true. You are right. These are only forecasts. We are in an | :26:12. | :26:18. | |
incredibly uncertain period of time. It is not about giveaways or micro | :26:19. | :26:22. | |
economic issues. It was huge in macro terms. Those new debt to GDP | :26:23. | :26:29. | |
ratios are very high, going over 90% in three years' time. It shows the | :26:30. | :26:33. | |
Government will have to borrow a lot more. Its total borrowing amount by | :26:34. | :26:37. | |
the end of the forecast period will be just under ?2 trillion. Just | :26:38. | :26:48. | |
under. If our economy grows rapidly, and lots of economists say it is | :26:49. | :26:52. | |
perfectly sustainable, not maybe at 90% but as long as you have a | :26:53. | :26:57. | |
falling proportion of debt in proportion to GDP, that is | :26:58. | :27:01. | |
sustainable. What the Government has done as well, those new targets for | :27:02. | :27:05. | |
what Philip Hammond said were balancing the books, are flexible to | :27:06. | :27:12. | |
put it benignly. They could be possibly meaningless, to put it more | :27:13. | :27:16. | |
aggressively. They said they wanted to bring the budget back to balance | :27:17. | :27:25. | |
as early as possible in the next Parliament. Don't we all. One of | :27:26. | :27:30. | |
those rubber conditional words, possible, of course. One interesting | :27:31. | :27:36. | |
bit within the Office for Budget Responsibility's economic outlook is | :27:37. | :27:39. | |
they have done a whole chapter on what they call the no referendum | :27:40. | :27:45. | |
counter factual. What with their forecast have looked like if we had | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
not voted to leave the European Union? What does it say? It does say | :27:51. | :27:56. | |
that directly related to the referendum results, it suggests that | :27:57. | :28:04. | |
borrowing of ?3.5 billion this year, nearly ?10 billion next year, ?15.4 | :28:05. | :28:11. | |
billion in 2018/ 19th is attributable to the referendum | :28:12. | :28:14. | |
result because it suggests, it says that the referendum means there will | :28:15. | :28:19. | |
be a negative impact on the economy. The OBR, if it were concerned about | :28:20. | :28:24. | |
plunging into the debate, what effect would Brexit have questioned | :28:25. | :28:30. | |
it has not shown it in its work. It has put numbers on borrowing, stuck | :28:31. | :28:34. | |
them on the table and said everyone can have an argument about that. | :28:35. | :28:38. | |
There will be a huge argument and discussion about how much of the | :28:39. | :28:41. | |
picture changing is down to the vote to leave the European Union. | :28:42. | :28:46. | |
Fascinating leak at the start of his statement Philip Hammond placed in | :28:47. | :28:52. | |
that context. He said his statement was a consequence for the decision | :28:53. | :28:57. | |
we have made. He himself was quite clear, the decisions he has made are | :28:58. | :29:01. | |
down to the decision we have all made. About oil prices and other | :29:02. | :29:11. | |
global issues, they are in desperate not central. On the previous | :29:12. | :29:15. | |
forecast we were meant to borrow just over 55 billion this financial | :29:16. | :29:20. | |
year. Next year we were meant to borrow just under 39 billion and it | :29:21. | :29:26. | |
will now be 59 billion. And so it goes on. Is this deterioration in | :29:27. | :29:30. | |
our this school position worse than you thought it would be? -- fiscal | :29:31. | :29:40. | |
position. I think the OBR has been relatively optimistic compared with | :29:41. | :29:45. | |
the Bank of England. Figures up to 2020 are more optimistic on the | :29:46. | :29:50. | |
growth side and the public finances side. In terms of public finances | :29:51. | :29:53. | |
overall, numbers are very close to the numbers we put out a couple of | :29:54. | :29:57. | |
weeks ago in terms of our expectations. If they are more | :29:58. | :30:04. | |
optimistic on the growth side, and they may not be optimistic enough, | :30:05. | :30:07. | |
why does the borrowing deteriorate by so much? It is only 20 billion | :30:08. | :30:13. | |
behind where it was for the next couple of years. | :30:14. | :30:18. | |
borrowing is very sensitive to growth of the those aren't terribly | :30:19. | :30:25. | |
surprising relationships. There is clearly, as the OBR state, other | :30:26. | :30:28. | |
things going on, which has created problems and in particular this | :30:29. | :30:34. | |
year, the Chancellor has got even less in income tax revenues than he | :30:35. | :30:38. | |
expected to do, even given what happened to growth and wages and so | :30:39. | :30:42. | |
on. One of the things the OBR have drawn attention to Anna Chancellor | :30:43. | :30:46. | |
mentioned, he would consult on, this whole issue of what you might call | :30:47. | :30:51. | |
people who are no longer getting money as earnings, but instead are | :30:52. | :30:58. | |
self-employed or incorporating and if you are self-employed and | :30:59. | :31:02. | |
particularly if you call yourself a small company, you pay quite a bit | :31:03. | :31:05. | |
less tax than if you are an employee for the same amount of income, | :31:06. | :31:09. | |
something the OBR worried about in March. They seem to be worrying | :31:10. | :31:15. | |
about a lot more now. In a nerdy way, the Chancellor said he was | :31:16. | :31:19. | |
going to consult on changing the tax system or the way we define what is | :31:20. | :31:24. | |
self employed and that could have a big effect. The inflation figures | :31:25. | :31:30. | |
were interesting from the OBR because compared to the Bank of | :31:31. | :31:33. | |
England, they are not that bad. Inflation peaking at 2.5% in 2018. | :31:34. | :31:40. | |
If wage growth was to stay the way it is now, 2.3%, would be just a | :31:41. | :31:47. | |
little bit above, and then it falls down to 2%. If that is true, you | :31:48. | :31:52. | |
wouldn't get the same squeeze on real living standards that many had | :31:53. | :31:55. | |
feared because of the fall of the pound, and therefore maybe not the | :31:56. | :31:58. | |
same impact on growth. It wouldn't be so bad. Clearly the higher the | :31:59. | :32:04. | |
inflation is, the worse it is for living standards and the OBR along | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
with the bank is expecting a direct pass through into higher prices, a | :32:10. | :32:13. | |
bit less, but not that much less than the bank is expecting. If it | :32:14. | :32:21. | |
does turn out that we get prices at 2.5% and wages, 2.3%, in historical | :32:22. | :32:28. | |
terms, it's terrible. We usually see prices rising 2%, not 0.2%. | :32:29. | :32:33. | |
Irrespective of what happened on June 23, we've already had eight | :32:34. | :32:37. | |
years essentially with no growth in real earnings and... This could be a | :32:38. | :32:44. | |
return to it. It looks like we have got several more years of that and | :32:45. | :32:48. | |
we may well end up by the end of this decade with earnings no higher | :32:49. | :32:51. | |
than they were at the beginning of the decade. We have never seen that | :32:52. | :32:57. | |
before, certainly not since the war. Is it clear, so far, for the Just | :32:58. | :33:05. | |
About Managing, this new popular phrase, is it clear that the Just | :33:06. | :33:10. | |
About Managing are going to be any better off as a result of this? | :33:11. | :33:15. | |
There's not a lot here in terms of measures for the group. We do of | :33:16. | :33:18. | |
course have a national living wage rising to ?7 50 an hour in April, | :33:19. | :33:23. | |
quite a big increase on the minimum wage as it was a year ago. That will | :33:24. | :33:28. | |
help a lot in that group. Otherwise, we have got a small increase in the | :33:29. | :33:34. | |
generosity of Universal Credit when it finally comes in but nowhere near | :33:35. | :33:41. | |
offsetting the cuts announced back in June 2015, and no doubt we will | :33:42. | :33:46. | |
also be told against freezing fuel duties will help that group although | :33:47. | :33:49. | |
most of the money will go to better off people who tend to consume more | :33:50. | :33:55. | |
fuel, more petrol. There's not an enormous amount here I think for | :33:56. | :34:00. | |
that. We need to leave it there but we thank you for the initial | :34:01. | :34:04. | |
reaction for that we look forward to the more considered one tomorrow | :34:05. | :34:07. | |
when you have had a chance to go through the figures on that. Lets | :34:08. | :34:11. | |
get reaction to the Chancellor's statement from Simon Jack. Thanks, | :34:12. | :34:20. | |
Andrew. We have been monitoring the pound, usually the most sensitive | :34:21. | :34:24. | |
market to economic announcements like this and it started rising and | :34:25. | :34:29. | |
then falling and we've ended up pretty much back where we were. It's | :34:30. | :34:34. | |
a surprise because those borrowing numbers were more horrible than we | :34:35. | :34:39. | |
were expecting, ?122 billion more in debt over the five-year period. That | :34:40. | :34:45. | |
announcement that as a percentage of GDP will hit 90% in 2017-18 is the | :34:46. | :34:51. | |
highest it's been for 50 years. Given we were gloomy about growth | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
forecasts and those numbers are sensitive to those GDP numbers, but | :34:56. | :34:59. | |
perhaps it's not that surprising we braced ourselves for the worst. | :35:00. | :35:13. | |
First of all, on that big picture, 90% debt to GDP looks like a | :35:14. | :35:16. | |
horrible number. It is a horrible number and that's why people have | :35:17. | :35:21. | |
been constrained here. The surprising thing for me is the | :35:22. | :35:27. | |
growth forecast into the future. Although there is a huge amount of | :35:28. | :35:31. | |
uncertainty underpinning those, they are a bit better than people had | :35:32. | :35:35. | |
feared. A little bit more optimistic than some had feared but also what | :35:36. | :35:40. | |
was quite interesting in a statement from the OBR, they were looking at | :35:41. | :35:43. | |
how they came up with those assumptions, factoring in Brexit, | :35:44. | :35:49. | |
and they were clearly saying they thought trade volumes would be lower | :35:50. | :35:53. | |
and there would be a cost to Brexit. Yes, that is what they are factoring | :35:54. | :35:57. | |
in as one of the high inflation and the impact it will have on consumer | :35:58. | :36:02. | |
spending. It is those two things combined but maybe not as much of a | :36:03. | :36:07. | |
hit as people in the city had forecast for those numbers to be. | :36:08. | :36:11. | |
It's always thought you got to have a credible plan about debt and what | :36:12. | :36:14. | |
he said today was his going to balance the books as early as | :36:15. | :36:19. | |
possible in the next Parliament. Is that good enough? We will see from | :36:20. | :36:24. | |
the Stirling chance, and moved. He's in a difficult position trying to | :36:25. | :36:29. | |
engender growth in a period of great uncertainty, we don't know quite | :36:30. | :36:32. | |
what Brexit will bring as well as all the global phenomena going on. I | :36:33. | :36:39. | |
think it is a tough ask. There are other things other than Brexit | :36:40. | :36:46. | |
affecting the dynamic growth. Simon, a big emphasis on infrastructure and | :36:47. | :36:50. | |
productivity. That presumably chimed in with you. Yes, it's all tied | :36:51. | :36:58. | |
together and that figure, 30% less productive, in Britain than Germany | :36:59. | :37:03. | |
or USA, it's a real problem. What we know about this Chancellor, | :37:04. | :37:07. | |
addressing that is his number one priority and a lot of what we've | :37:08. | :37:11. | |
seen today is about that and he tied that into the infrastructure, | :37:12. | :37:17. | |
digital, housing, transport, and we are disappointed there's nothing on | :37:18. | :37:22. | |
capital allowances, the annual investment allowance because that | :37:23. | :37:29. | |
improves productivity. It's not as ambitious as might have been. | :37:30. | :37:33. | |
Ambition to invest here and now over the next year for businesses who are | :37:34. | :37:39. | |
uncertain and hesitant because we are being cautious. This'll be the | :37:40. | :37:44. | |
last Autumn Statement and will now be an autumn budget and then a | :37:45. | :37:48. | |
spring statement. This will be the big one. We will have a small | :37:49. | :37:54. | |
announcement in spring. If he doesn't tinker with things in | :37:55. | :37:57. | |
spring, we have one big budget a year and that's good for business | :37:58. | :38:01. | |
because this continual tinkering as to the workload for businesses. Yes, | :38:02. | :38:06. | |
it's to be welcomed, the fact you're going to an autumn budget gives | :38:07. | :38:10. | |
businesses more time to plan for the incoming tax year than they've had | :38:11. | :38:14. | |
with a Spring Budget. I think the fact we won't have fiscal events as | :38:15. | :38:19. | |
they are called the whole time, has to be good. One thing I thought I | :38:20. | :38:26. | |
heard was the death knell of the triple lock saying it was safe until | :38:27. | :38:31. | |
the end of 2020 but given changes in longevity might need looking at. Did | :38:32. | :38:36. | |
you hear that for pensions? I thought there was a hint of that, it | :38:37. | :38:40. | |
will be reviewed, and this is favouring a part of the community | :38:41. | :38:44. | |
which has been favoured a lot over the last ten years and we need to | :38:45. | :38:48. | |
address more to young people struggling in their first houses. On | :38:49. | :38:54. | |
the house-building, we got what we expected. Yes, and it will need to | :38:55. | :39:00. | |
be a continuing priority. We say it's freeing up planning regulation | :39:01. | :39:05. | |
that will really help people. Sue and Simon, thank you very much | :39:06. | :39:08. | |
indeed. The markets took this in their stride despite these horrible | :39:09. | :39:13. | |
numbers, people were expecting much gloomier growth forecasts. The city | :39:14. | :39:21. | |
today was braced for that news. Thank you, Simon. Let's speak to the | :39:22. | :39:27. | |
Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Welcome to the special programme. We | :39:28. | :39:31. | |
have got slower growth, higher inflation, weaker tax revenues, | :39:32. | :39:37. | |
squeezed living standards, spectacularly high borrowing. What | :39:38. | :39:43. | |
is the good news? It shouldn't come as surprise to anyone as they go | :39:44. | :39:47. | |
through a period of transition following the Brexit vote, that | :39:48. | :39:50. | |
there are challenges for the economy. I think the key thing is | :39:51. | :39:54. | |
that the government responds as is necessary. We have given ourselves | :39:55. | :39:59. | |
greater flexibility for that we are taking steps to improve | :40:00. | :40:03. | |
productivity. We're also doing this in a way that maintains credibility | :40:04. | :40:08. | |
in our public finances. How can it be credible? It's only November. In | :40:09. | :40:13. | |
March this year, you told us what he planned to borrow for the next five | :40:14. | :40:19. | |
years. You are now going to borrow ?122 billion more than you told us | :40:20. | :40:25. | |
you would borrow six or seven months ago. That is the OBR's estimate and | :40:26. | :40:30. | |
they are clear in their explanation as to why that is. They | :40:31. | :40:36. | |
predominantly put that down to the consequences of the Brexit vote. And | :40:37. | :40:40. | |
the uncertainty that follows from that leading to reduced investment | :40:41. | :40:47. | |
and therefore slower growth over this period of time. Than also some | :40:48. | :40:52. | |
structural challenges we face about different ways of working and the | :40:53. | :40:58. | |
fact it brings in fewer tax receipts than we would otherwise have, so, | :40:59. | :41:02. | |
yes, we face challenges but the difference between March and | :41:03. | :41:05. | |
November, quite a lot hasn't happened between them. In 2010, you | :41:06. | :41:12. | |
told us he would balance the budget by 2015. That didn't happen. By | :41:13. | :41:17. | |
2015, you told us it would balance the budget by 2020. That's not going | :41:18. | :41:21. | |
to happen. Now you can't tell us when it's going to be balanced. | :41:22. | :41:27. | |
Correct? Circumstances have changed. The OBR said, had we had the Brexit | :41:28. | :41:32. | |
vote go the other way, they say we would still be on course to have a | :41:33. | :41:38. | |
surplus by 2019-20 but the circumstances are no different and | :41:39. | :41:41. | |
we have to respond to those circumstances and that's exactly | :41:42. | :41:46. | |
what the Chancellor set out to do. Do you feel, being in a government, | :41:47. | :41:51. | |
supposedly a fiscally conservative government, that, by the end of this | :41:52. | :41:54. | |
decade, we will probably have increased the national debt to | :41:55. | :42:04. | |
macro-?2,000,000,000,000? -- ?2 trillion. You have to look at why | :42:05. | :42:11. | |
that has happened. We inherited an economy where we borrowed a record | :42:12. | :42:16. | |
amount. What was a national debt when you inherited it? Debt has gone | :42:17. | :42:22. | |
up, Andrew, very significantly over a period of time. Debt is | :42:23. | :42:27. | |
essentially the team elation of borrowing. We brought borrowing down | :42:28. | :42:32. | |
through a period of time which has been a festival difficult because of | :42:33. | :42:35. | |
a performance of the world economy, we actually wear on course to | :42:36. | :42:41. | |
eliminate the deficit by the end... We will never know now. That is what | :42:42. | :42:47. | |
the OBR said today. You are doing more than doubling the national | :42:48. | :42:52. | |
debt. Well and trillion when you came to powerful that it could | :42:53. | :42:55. | |
easily be macro-2,000,000,000,000 by 2020. -- 2 trillion by 2020. It has | :42:56. | :43:05. | |
inflicted huge austerities on this country and yet you still have 2 | :43:06. | :43:10. | |
trillion debt. In other countries, people would be resigning over these | :43:11. | :43:15. | |
figures. What is the argument, Andrew? We have done too much or | :43:16. | :43:19. | |
done too little because other critics often say you have cut too | :43:20. | :43:22. | |
much and there's been too much austerity and then complain about | :43:23. | :43:27. | |
the fact... The argument is you haven't done what you have said you | :43:28. | :43:30. | |
would done. We've made a number of difficult decisions that has brought | :43:31. | :43:36. | |
our deficit down by almost two thirds full there was a time I | :43:37. | :43:39. | |
remember in 2010 when people thought we have to bring the IMF into | :43:40. | :43:45. | |
bailiffs out. Really? I do remember that. Ken Clarke and George Osborne | :43:46. | :43:51. | |
said at a press conference a few days before the general election. I | :43:52. | :43:56. | |
can remember others as well. The point is we faced a crisis in 2010 | :43:57. | :44:03. | |
but restored credibility. That was six years ago and you're still | :44:04. | :44:06. | |
borrowing more than ever. Because of the scale of the challenge we face | :44:07. | :44:13. | |
today. We did maintain the confidence of the markets in the UK, | :44:14. | :44:17. | |
which is not a given in 2010. I'm sure you would agree. Now we face | :44:18. | :44:22. | |
new challenges for the question is, how does the government sort this | :44:23. | :44:29. | |
out? Should we chase the 2010 surplus target? A la judgment is | :44:30. | :44:32. | |
that the wrong thing to do, it would be too harsh on the economy given | :44:33. | :44:39. | |
the uncertainty we now face. This is an entirely pragmatic sensible | :44:40. | :44:42. | |
response to the circumstances we are in and that involves borrowing more | :44:43. | :44:47. | |
for economic infrastructure. ?23 billion. You are borrowing 122 | :44:48. | :44:55. | |
billion more. As Andrew are suggesting, you have been failing | :44:56. | :44:58. | |
your own tests and the location from today is you are go into the next | :44:59. | :45:03. | |
general election unable to tell the general public when you will balance | :45:04. | :45:08. | |
the books. We are unable to say when we will balance the books at this | :45:09. | :45:12. | |
point as the Chancellor made clear, the rule is we will have the | :45:13. | :45:18. | |
structural deficit below 2% by the end of this Parliament at this | :45:19. | :45:24. | |
point. What we are saying is we will be in overall surplus at some point | :45:25. | :45:27. | |
in the next Parliament. As soon as possible. | :45:28. | :45:34. | |
Our viewers should not expect going into the next general election | :45:35. | :45:39. | |
without being able to tell the public when you will have balanced | :45:40. | :45:44. | |
the books. What we will be able to say by the time we get to 2020 is | :45:45. | :45:49. | |
difficult to judge at the moment. We are entering into a period of | :45:50. | :45:54. | |
uncertainty. The intention is to eliminate the overall deficit as | :45:55. | :45:56. | |
soon as possible in the next Parliament. We should have that | :45:57. | :46:05. | |
flexibility at the moment. By 2020 you will give a much more definite | :46:06. | :46:10. | |
signal to the public who voted for you on the basis you are there to | :46:11. | :46:14. | |
fix the public finances. The answer is, we do not know at this stage. We | :46:15. | :46:20. | |
are going into a period of uncertainty. It is right, during a | :46:21. | :46:25. | |
period of uncertainty, the pragmatic thing is to have that flexibility to | :46:26. | :46:31. | |
respond to events. Where we will be by 2020, of course, we don't | :46:32. | :46:38. | |
precisely know. George Osborne said a debt to GDP ratio of 90% was not | :46:39. | :46:44. | |
sustainable. That is the bigger your going to hit next year. Presumably, | :46:45. | :46:49. | |
it is not sustainable. One of the factors in now, as the Chancellor | :46:50. | :46:53. | |
made clear, our debt numbers are made worse by some of the | :46:54. | :46:58. | |
allegations of the Bank of England operations, which are necessary. I | :46:59. | :47:01. | |
am making the point that has boosted the debt number. There is an | :47:02. | :47:06. | |
important point that we do have to bring down debt. I would like to | :47:07. | :47:12. | |
bring debt down earlier and faster but we have to respond to the | :47:13. | :47:16. | |
circumstances that exist in the economy. The circumstances that | :47:17. | :47:21. | |
exist at the moment, a period of uncertainty whereby we need | :47:22. | :47:24. | |
flexibility to respond. That is what the Chancellor is saying. That is a | :47:25. | :47:29. | |
pragmatic response to the circumstances. One intriguing hint | :47:30. | :47:32. | |
towards the end of the statement. The Chancellor suggested the | :47:33. | :47:35. | |
governance might look at spending protections for some departments. In | :47:36. | :47:42. | |
other words can he was suspect he might lose the triple lock on | :47:43. | :47:46. | |
pensions and get rid of the ring fence on NHS spending. They have | :47:47. | :47:51. | |
made commitments for this parliament which the Chancellor reaffirmed. We | :47:52. | :47:55. | |
always make these commitments Parliament by Parliament. That was a | :47:56. | :47:59. | |
pretty clear hint they have a sell by date. The commitments we will | :48:00. | :48:03. | |
make for the next Parliament will be made at the next spending review. | :48:04. | :48:09. | |
They are not to be made now. At the point of the next spending review we | :48:10. | :48:13. | |
will have to look at how the economy is doing and what is affordable. Let | :48:14. | :48:19. | |
me ask you, that just about managing classes. Your government is the one | :48:20. | :48:23. | |
that puts them at the centre of everything. They are just about | :48:24. | :48:29. | |
managing. Is it not clear, from everything that is happening to the | :48:30. | :48:33. | |
economy in what was announced today, that at the end of this decade, the | :48:34. | :48:38. | |
just about managing classes will be worse off than they are today? I | :48:39. | :48:44. | |
don't think it is just about clear. If you look at it, we have just had | :48:45. | :48:51. | |
a period of time where growth in living standards have actually been | :48:52. | :48:55. | |
pretty high, the last couple of years in particular we have seen | :48:56. | :48:59. | |
living standards growing very fast. It is the case, given that we are | :49:00. | :49:04. | |
likely to see higher inflation, there will be a squeeze over the | :49:05. | :49:09. | |
next couple of years. And benefits are frozen. From 2018, we will see | :49:10. | :49:14. | |
earnings rising again. That is what the OBR is predicting. Let's get | :49:15. | :49:21. | |
this point clear. Even if inflation does not cover as badly as you | :49:22. | :49:26. | |
think, it does not matter for them. The benefits of frozen. Whatever the | :49:27. | :49:31. | |
inflation rate, they are worse off. I think what you will find I | :49:32. | :49:35. | |
appreciate not having a chance to go through all the numbers yet but what | :49:36. | :49:39. | |
you will find with the information we have, living standards will be | :49:40. | :49:42. | |
higher by the end of this parliament and they were at the beginning. I | :49:43. | :49:49. | |
would suggest to you, minister, just about managing. People who really | :49:50. | :49:56. | |
fit into that working families needing Universal Credit to top up | :49:57. | :50:00. | |
because they are not being paid enough to be able to survive. They | :50:01. | :50:04. | |
get some extra welfare benefits and they are still just about managing. | :50:05. | :50:11. | |
Even when you take into account the rise in the National Living Wage | :50:12. | :50:14. | |
that is planned, the income tax cuts. Some of them, come out of | :50:15. | :50:19. | |
income tax altogether. Free childcare as we have talked about. | :50:20. | :50:24. | |
Working families will be, on average, ?800 worse off by the end | :50:25. | :50:31. | |
of the decade. ?1300, when you take in the impact of the benefit freeze. | :50:32. | :50:36. | |
I am not sure I recognise those numbers. One of the things we have | :50:37. | :50:44. | |
announced today has been in -- reduction of the tape are rate. 2p. | :50:45. | :50:50. | |
To give an example, a couple with the highest earner on 30,000, two | :50:51. | :50:55. | |
children, the housing element of Universal Credit, they will benefit | :50:56. | :51:04. | |
from the 2p matter by ?420 a year. I have taken the 2% take that into | :51:05. | :51:09. | |
account. The fact is, whatever way you cut it, working families on | :51:10. | :51:14. | |
Universal Credit will be worse off by the end of this decade. You could | :51:15. | :51:21. | |
argue that may be one of the prices that has to be paid to stop | :51:22. | :51:27. | |
borrowing get way out of hand. Your government may do just about | :51:28. | :51:31. | |
managing the centrepiece of this government and they will be worse | :51:32. | :51:34. | |
off. I don't particularly recognise those numbers but it is important to | :51:35. | :51:41. | |
say, coming back to our earlier conversation, we do have to get | :51:42. | :51:45. | |
public finances under control. You have raised perfidy fairly criticism | :51:46. | :51:50. | |
of you should be going faster. We have to strike a balance between | :51:51. | :51:55. | |
critical credibility, reducing the deficit but also ensuring we have an | :51:56. | :52:02. | |
economy that can withstand this and help the just about managing. You | :52:03. | :52:10. | |
cannot say you're going to make the just about managing the centrepiece | :52:11. | :52:13. | |
of your policies and they end up most. -- worse off. Let me make this | :52:14. | :52:22. | |
point. One of the ways in which, ultimately, we raise living | :52:23. | :52:27. | |
standards, and we have an economy which can afford world-class public | :52:28. | :52:32. | |
services, it is by ensuring we have stronger productivity. That is a big | :52:33. | :52:35. | |
focus of what the Chancellor was saying today. About productivity and | :52:36. | :52:41. | |
research and development and transport infrastructure and | :52:42. | :52:43. | |
housing. These are all measures which can ensure the UK economy can | :52:44. | :52:48. | |
grow more and prosper more, improve productivity and wages and salaries. | :52:49. | :52:52. | |
That is ultimately the way in which you help all of the people in this | :52:53. | :52:58. | |
country. That is very clearly what the Chancellor was arguing today. I | :52:59. | :53:03. | |
was going to say, the problem you have with that today, is Number 10, | :53:04. | :53:09. | |
the Prime Minister has set up a political aspiration, her political | :53:10. | :53:12. | |
aspiration, that she will help people directly and feel it in their | :53:13. | :53:17. | |
pockets. The Chancellor may feel it is better to prioritise the | :53:18. | :53:21. | |
long-term economy and infrastructure but you have a mismatch. The | :53:22. | :53:24. | |
rhetoric of the Prime Minister and the reality of what this statement | :53:25. | :53:29. | |
has put forward. I do not accept that. When you look at what we have | :53:30. | :53:32. | |
just announced in terms of the Universal Credit taper, if you look | :53:33. | :53:38. | |
at what we have done with fuel duty and all of the things in terms of | :53:39. | :53:43. | |
housing, the additional ?1.4 billion for affordable housing, those are | :53:44. | :53:48. | |
all measures that are going to help ordinary, working class families in | :53:49. | :53:53. | |
a period of uncertainty and difficulty, which we can discuss the | :53:54. | :53:59. | |
reasons behind that a little bit. It is a balance has to be struck. The | :54:00. | :54:05. | |
long-term credibility of our public finances. The long-term growth of | :54:06. | :54:09. | |
the economy through better infrastructure, etc come and also | :54:10. | :54:15. | |
helping the British public through potentially a difficult year or two. | :54:16. | :54:19. | |
The Chancellor has struck that balanced very well today. Meanwhile, | :54:20. | :54:25. | |
the just about managing will have to continue just about managing. Thank | :54:26. | :54:29. | |
you for being with us. I know it is a busy day for you as well as the | :54:30. | :54:31. | |
Chancellor. Let's go back to Jo | :54:32. | :54:33. | |
Coburn in Portsmouth. Andrew, I am sheltering underneath a | :54:34. | :54:44. | |
child catamaran, here at the home of where they build this racing vote in | :54:45. | :54:52. | |
Portsmouth. One of the points that would have been very relevant for | :54:53. | :54:55. | |
this part of the UK was when Philip Hammond said he felt too much | :54:56. | :55:00. | |
economic growth have been focused on London and the south-east at the | :55:01. | :55:04. | |
expense of cities like Portsmouth. Who better to discuss that point | :55:05. | :55:09. | |
with them than Donna Jones, the Conservative leader of Portsmouth | :55:10. | :55:13. | |
City Council. How big is that gap between cities like Portsmouth and | :55:14. | :55:17. | |
London and the South East? Here in Hampshire and the Isle of Wight we | :55:18. | :55:21. | |
have a productivity gap with the remainder of the south-east of | :55:22. | :55:25. | |
England and even greater into the tens of billions if compared to | :55:26. | :55:29. | |
London. I do welcome some of the announcements today. Was that money | :55:30. | :55:32. | |
is needed in the north of the country to make the economy grow, we | :55:33. | :55:36. | |
also need infrastructure in the south-east as well. Have you been | :55:37. | :55:42. | |
jealous of the northern Powerhouse? Could something like that be done | :55:43. | :55:48. | |
here? We have been working on a sale and combined authority. The money | :55:49. | :55:51. | |
that comes through from government to enable local authorities to build | :55:52. | :55:58. | |
motorways. Key infrastructure is vital. How badly do you need new | :55:59. | :56:03. | |
roads and new infrastructure? The Tunstall talked about new | :56:04. | :56:07. | |
investment. It does not sound like much. -- the Chancellor. We are | :56:08. | :56:17. | |
still in an austerity programme and have a deficit nationally. I welcome | :56:18. | :56:22. | |
the announcement for the ?3.7 billion has been announced for | :56:23. | :56:24. | |
infrastructure to aid housing delivery and roads specifically. We | :56:25. | :56:31. | |
have not had any investment in rail infrastructure since the 60s and we | :56:32. | :56:34. | |
need to rebuild part of the motorway in Portsmouth. To deliver the | :56:35. | :56:41. | |
thousands of homes we need to build, we need some more infrastructure in | :56:42. | :56:46. | |
roads and rail. Otherwise you cannot deliver those homes? It makes it | :56:47. | :56:50. | |
difficult. What about affordable housing? This is much less than is | :56:51. | :56:58. | |
actually needed across the country. It is a very good start. I welcome | :56:59. | :57:04. | |
the fact the Chancellor has taken a pragmatic approach to budget | :57:05. | :57:06. | |
neutrality, today making the announcement that we will not repeat | :57:07. | :57:15. | |
a budget neutral position by 2020 but it will be achieved at some | :57:16. | :57:20. | |
point beyond that. I think that is realistic. I have looked at the OBR | :57:21. | :57:25. | |
forecast for the next five years. Today was a very sensible budget. We | :57:26. | :57:30. | |
need more money and growth infrastructure. The keyword for me | :57:31. | :57:34. | |
is a ramp built. Build more homes were build more roads and create | :57:35. | :57:42. | |
over 500,000 new jobs. -- around Guild. You said you would welcome | :57:43. | :57:47. | |
flexibility in terms of balancing the books. What does that mean about | :57:48. | :57:51. | |
the state of public finances which will affect you as a council? There | :57:52. | :57:57. | |
have been upsides and downsides. I welcome the increase in the personal | :57:58. | :58:01. | |
allowance for tax payers. Taking over 2 million people out of tax | :58:02. | :58:09. | |
with the increased to ?11,500 by 2018. Putting money back into | :58:10. | :58:16. | |
pockets. The increase in the National Living Wage will have an | :58:17. | :58:20. | |
effect. We do have people through care contracts we award looking | :58:21. | :58:22. | |
after elderly people who will be paid around the living wage and that | :58:23. | :58:27. | |
will have a slight effect on our balance sheets. John McDonnell said | :58:28. | :58:32. | |
was nothing from his perspective boosting social care and never be | :58:33. | :58:39. | |
more pressure on the NHS. We were anticipating an increase in the | :58:40. | :58:43. | |
adult care precept. I think that announcement may come in the next | :58:44. | :58:49. | |
b-day. It was not included today in the Chancellor's budget but that is | :58:50. | :58:52. | |
the sort of thing that we will be looking very closely at, the details | :58:53. | :58:58. | |
of the implications from today's Autumn Statement. Donna mentioned | :58:59. | :59:03. | |
the families who will just be managing. Those who are only just | :59:04. | :59:07. | |
about managing to pay their bills, pay their rent is, perhaps pay | :59:08. | :59:12. | |
mortgages. Let's talk to our personal finance experts, Ruth | :59:13. | :59:16. | |
Alexander, about some of the issues affecting them. Was there much in | :59:17. | :59:20. | |
this budget to help those who are just about managing? There was a | :59:21. | :59:24. | |
little bit. I do not think anyone will see their lives massively | :59:25. | :59:27. | |
transformed by what was announced. We would talking about the personal | :59:28. | :59:31. | |
allowance increasing. That was announced before. It is the point at | :59:32. | :59:36. | |
which you have to pay tax. It will increase to ?12,500. ?12,500 by the | :59:37. | :59:45. | |
end of the Parliament. By 2020, 20 21. It will take some people out of | :59:46. | :59:50. | |
tax altogether and help others. The higher rate tax threshold will go to | :59:51. | :59:58. | |
?50 million -- ?50,000 by the end of parliament. It will help savers. At | :59:59. | :00:02. | |
the moment you cannot get any sort of decent interest rate on savings. | :00:03. | :00:06. | |
It is so hard. The Government has said it will have a market leading | :00:07. | :00:11. | |
savings bond. Most of the detail will be in the budget that they | :00:12. | :00:15. | |
expect it will have an interest rate of 2.2% of that not a huge amount. | :00:16. | :00:20. | |
You will be able to save up to ?3000. The fact that fuel duty will | :00:21. | :00:27. | |
be frozen for the seventh year in a row will be good news to anyone | :00:28. | :00:33. | |
worried it could get a bit higher. I had an e-mail from Kate Hugh asks, | :00:34. | :00:39. | |
will wages for 16-17 -year-olds increase? Yes, but I'm not sure this | :00:40. | :00:43. | |
is the news she was hoping for. I'm afraid by just 5p an hour. The | :00:44. | :00:48. | |
reason she was asking is there's been a lot of talk and in fact it | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
was confirmed that the national living wages going to go up for | :00:52. | :00:57. | |
people who are aged 25 and over. That is going from ?7 20 up to ?7 50 | :00:58. | :01:03. | |
from April. It sounds good but earlier in the year it is expected | :01:04. | :01:06. | |
it would go up a little bit more. So that's not great. Daniel and Darren | :01:07. | :01:13. | |
have asked, letting agents fees, when will the fees coming? It's | :01:14. | :01:17. | |
going to be as soon as possible. Darren is renegotiating a contact at | :01:18. | :01:22. | |
the moment and they want to charge a fee for that. He says, does this | :01:23. | :01:28. | |
mean I won't have to do? When do you think we will find when that will | :01:29. | :01:32. | |
come in? As soon as possible, maybe in the next month or so. Of course, | :01:33. | :01:37. | |
the bigger news Philip Hammond announced was that this will be the | :01:38. | :01:40. | |
last ever Autumn Statement. Back to you, Andrew. | :01:41. | :01:46. | |
We are in mourning here for it. But we are buoyed by the idea that there | :01:47. | :01:52. | |
will be a spring statement instead. Viewers in Scotland leave us now for | :01:53. | :01:54. | |
more on the impact of the Autumn Statement. If you are just joining | :01:55. | :02:02. | |
us, wondering what happened, let's give you a recap from the Autumn | :02:03. | :02:07. | |
Statement, the first major financial statement by the new Chancellor | :02:08. | :02:11. | |
Philip Hammond. Economic forecast. The government is predicting debt, | :02:12. | :02:17. | |
our total national accumulated debt, will reach 90% of our overall wealth | :02:18. | :02:24. | |
of GDP by 2017-18. Borrowing is going to increase. The idea of a | :02:25. | :02:30. | |
budget surplus is not going to be reached by the end of this decade. | :02:31. | :02:33. | |
Indeed, there is no word when it will be reached now. The growth | :02:34. | :02:41. | |
forecast is falling to 1.4% next year. They get a little bit better | :02:42. | :02:46. | |
the year after that and then rise again so next year the OBR, a lot of | :02:47. | :02:50. | |
pressure on the OBR to see the growth forecast right, because a lot | :02:51. | :02:56. | |
has fallen from it. Main measures the Chancellor announced, the | :02:57. | :03:00. | |
National living wage will rise to ?7 50 an hour by April. That was in the | :03:01. | :03:06. | |
pipeline so no surprise there. Fuel duty rises, cancelled. The seventh | :03:07. | :03:14. | |
year in a row. He's cancelled the automatic rise in fuel duty. | :03:15. | :03:20. | |
Insurance Premium Tax will increase to 12%. It's one of the taxes | :03:21. | :03:26. | |
chancellors think they can nudge up without anybody noticing too much | :03:27. | :03:31. | |
until the and arrives. He announced 23 billion for a new national | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
productivity investment fund and that is spread over five years but, | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
by the end of five years, there will be several billion more going into | :03:43. | :03:49. | |
productivity investment. A few other measures, Universal Credit taper is | :03:50. | :03:59. | |
reduced from 65-63p for every ?1. A marginal adjustment for those who | :04:00. | :04:03. | |
lose benefits. Another 1.4 billion to help 40,000 new homes, only in | :04:04. | :04:08. | |
England, but that's a problem because it is spread over a number | :04:09. | :04:15. | |
of years. Northern Ireland, 250 million, Wales, 400, Scotland, 800. | :04:16. | :04:21. | |
As we said earlier, the Autumn Statement is being abolished. Which, | :04:22. | :04:27. | |
for people like me, is a very sad day indeed. We have got a spring | :04:28. | :04:34. | |
statement instead so hurray for that. Lets go back to Joanna on | :04:35. | :04:41. | |
College Green. Yes, thank you for that with metres Tim Farron and Tim | :04:42. | :04:49. | |
reckless. We heard from the Chancellor talk about the underlying | :04:50. | :04:53. | |
resilience of the economy and eye watering levels of debt and the | :04:54. | :05:00. | |
figure is ?122 billion additional borrowing. How would you assess the | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
state of the nation 's finances from what you have heard? I think we have | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
just seen the epitaph of the fact over the last five months all of the | :05:10. | :05:12. | |
good work we did on financial stability in the coalition has been | :05:13. | :05:16. | |
undone and the Chancellor will say he had no alternative but the OBR's | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
figure is 220 billion. Brexit means an increase of unemployment, lower | :05:23. | :05:31. | |
growth, lower living standards and spiralling debt. If we believe that | :05:32. | :05:36. | |
this is a disaster Britain should avoid, particularly the hard Brexit | :05:37. | :05:39. | |
nobody voted for, but we deserve better than the white flag the | :05:40. | :05:43. | |
Labour Party is waving this afternoon. I would say if the | :05:44. | :05:49. | |
epitaph for the 3 million jobs like, people like Tim Farron telling us 3 | :05:50. | :05:54. | |
million jobs would be at risk if we left the EU and receive the official | :05:55. | :05:57. | |
forecast for unemployment, after we're left the EU is just 860,000. | :05:58. | :06:04. | |
What about those debt figures, ?122 billion of borrowing extra, GDP not | :06:05. | :06:12. | |
doing as well as anticipated, and the overall level of debt not going | :06:13. | :06:17. | |
down? The growth forecast is reasonably good but the government | :06:18. | :06:21. | |
is borrowing too much. They talk a tough game on austerity but their | :06:22. | :06:24. | |
words are not matched with deed. What would you say? We will | :06:25. | :06:31. | |
accelerate leaving the European Union. Every month we are in, it's | :06:32. | :06:37. | |
?1 billion we have to pay. A cliff edge fall in our contributions are | :06:38. | :06:40. | |
no more contributions to the EU after the set December 2018 | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
according to the statement. We like to make savings on overseas aid, | :06:46. | :06:52. | |
humanitarian disaster relief, scrap HS2, look at the green subsidies and | :06:53. | :06:56. | |
bleeding of the public finances in order. What we have discovered in | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
terms of the black hole within the Chancellor's budget, 220 -- ?220 | :07:02. | :07:10. | |
million, that increases attacks across the board and at the same | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
time, since the 23rd of June, it seems every day has been a good day | :07:16. | :07:18. | |
to bury bad news and the worst news has been within the national health | :07:19. | :07:22. | |
and social care services. There wasn't an extra penny given to the | :07:23. | :07:26. | |
NHS today. The problem is, whilst we head towards a hard Brexit which | :07:27. | :07:32. | |
nobody voted for, and an exit from the single market, we are seeing | :07:33. | :07:37. | |
less income into the Exchequer, less money for the health service and | :07:38. | :07:43. | |
schools. The savings Mark Reckless talks about? I admire him for | :07:44. | :07:50. | |
carrying on repeating what was on the side of our bus. It's a delight | :07:51. | :07:56. | |
to hear somebody standing by it but you're the only person on the planet | :07:57. | :08:01. | |
is still believes that. We have had some truth today. The gap between | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
what we could have had and will have is a quarter of ?1 trillion over | :08:06. | :08:09. | |
this parliament. Can you imagine the number of nurses, doctors, social | :08:10. | :08:13. | |
workers, teachers, police officers and soldiers we could pay for if | :08:14. | :08:16. | |
this government hadn't gone for a hard Brexit nobody voted for? What | :08:17. | :08:25. | |
would happen to the economy at Brexit had not happened? You talk | :08:26. | :08:27. | |
much about it increase in unemployment and it's going the | :08:28. | :08:33. | |
other way. ?220 billion hole in the public finances, we will see what | :08:34. | :08:36. | |
that will lead to. The worst thing in the world is to be in opposition | :08:37. | :08:40. | |
wanting things to go badly to prove your case. I don't want that. I want | :08:41. | :08:46. | |
Britain to be strong which is why I think his announcement on | :08:47. | :08:50. | |
infrastructure, are actually encouraging at a time of low | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
interest rates. We should be spending but the problem is that | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
because of making a choice of hard Brexit but nobody voted for, he has | :09:00. | :09:03. | |
put himself in a position where that good work you could be doing on | :09:04. | :09:06. | |
infrastructure investment will be swamped and dwarfed other black hole | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
he is creating. We are in a period of complete uncertainty and | :09:13. | :09:18. | |
unpredictable it in terms of these predictions we are hearing today and | :09:19. | :09:21. | |
predictions are not always right. We don't really what the impact will be | :09:22. | :09:27. | |
once Britain leads the youth. We had the Treasury suggesting six months | :09:28. | :09:31. | |
ago telling us if we left, unemployment would be 1.2 million, | :09:32. | :09:35. | |
1.3 million next year and now we hear from the independent office | :09:36. | :09:42. | |
from budget was once ability, it will be 860,000. We get more | :09:43. | :09:49. | |
certainty that contribution to the EU budget stopped in 2018 assembler, | :09:50. | :09:54. | |
and there are no tariffs going forward with the European Union so | :09:55. | :09:57. | |
that's good news in terms of official position and business can | :09:58. | :10:02. | |
plan on the business they won't be tariffs with the EU and we have | :10:03. | :10:05. | |
savings online and the outlook is pretty good. A wonderful piece of | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
spin. The reality is the one figure we can't ignore, it is obvious, | :10:12. | :10:17. | |
there are 500 million consumers in the European Union in a single | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
market, the largest most prosperous market on earth, and a major reason | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
for that enormous black hole it it will affect every public service, | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
family in this country, because Britain is heading outside of that | :10:30. | :10:35. | |
single market so to access it is nonsense for that North Korea has | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
got the access to the single market. Membership will be the difference in | :10:40. | :10:41. | |
this country floundering and growing. Tariff free access to the | :10:42. | :10:48. | |
single market is probably what would agree is desirable. Why would that | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
happen without freedom of movement? According to the official forecast, | :10:54. | :10:56. | |
it will and they don't expect revenue from tariffs which would be | :10:57. | :11:02. | |
far more from us than us and it's not in interest. I don't that will | :11:03. | :11:09. | |
happen. What we have heard today and the fact that the borrowing figures | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
are where they are, would the last years of austerity of being a waste | :11:14. | :11:16. | |
of time because people out there will think I have been hit so hard | :11:17. | :11:21. | |
and the nation 's finances are still in a state? For five years, the Lib | :11:22. | :11:25. | |
Dems not making ourselves popular in the process, fought to make sure | :11:26. | :11:29. | |
there was famous while we put the lid on excessive spending to get the | :11:30. | :11:33. | |
finances in order. The last five months, completely undone the fourth | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
reputation for fiscal responsibility is out the window as a consequence. | :11:39. | :11:42. | |
It is more depressing for the people around the country who have suffered | :11:43. | :11:46. | |
the consequences of that and, yes, austerity... It's nothing about what | :11:47. | :11:50. | |
may come if we don't maintain membership of the single market. A | :11:51. | :11:57. | |
soft Brexit if possible. Give the British people a say on the final | :11:58. | :12:01. | |
terms. The Chancellor says he can afford to do what he's doing because | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
of the reputation hilltop with austerity and the management of the | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
economy. He is putting out these new fiscal rules. What do you think of | :12:11. | :12:15. | |
those? We've been asking for some time and that's what we encourage | :12:16. | :12:18. | |
when we were in government. The problem is, the good stuff in this | :12:19. | :12:26. | |
Autumn Statement, essentially the investment in our infrastructure, | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
it's far too small, it is dwarfed by is needed, and also massively | :12:30. | :12:34. | |
dwarfed by the enormous black hole and damage done by the impending | :12:35. | :12:40. | |
hard Brexit which nobody voted for. The infrastructure spend is too | :12:41. | :12:46. | |
small a. Lets get on the shovel ready local projects, improve the | :12:47. | :12:48. | |
Manchester to Liverpool line, scrap the tolls on the crossings of the | :12:49. | :12:53. | |
Severn Bridge, the Mersey Tunnel and the Dartford Crossing, and we can | :12:54. | :12:59. | |
pay for that by cutting HS2, as you'd think in a juju, reduce | :13:00. | :13:04. | |
overseas aid and makes an savings. Thank you both very much. Back to | :13:05. | :13:11. | |
you, Andrew. Thanks, Laura, what are the politics | :13:12. | :13:16. | |
of this? How will this go down with a Tory backbenchers? In a funny way, | :13:17. | :13:20. | |
they may have some irritation on both sides of the Eurosceptic right | :13:21. | :13:25. | |
end and also those more liberal conservatives. The sort of tweaking | :13:26. | :13:32. | |
of the cuts to Universal Credit don't make much difference and there | :13:33. | :13:35. | |
has been a lot of strong feeling on the Tory benches about making that | :13:36. | :13:40. | |
change in order to make that message about helping people who are having | :13:41. | :13:46. | |
a good hard time ring true. At the other end, some people really | :13:47. | :13:48. | |
believe the Tories should have gone further and harder in cutting the | :13:49. | :13:54. | |
first time around and the idea of pushing out paying down the deficit | :13:55. | :13:57. | |
even further is also not going to be very popular. More broadly, though, | :13:58. | :14:02. | |
I think we are in a period where the Tory backbenchers are maybe a bit | :14:03. | :14:07. | |
grumpy around the edges but not massively restive. Broadly, I don't | :14:08. | :14:11. | |
think there is going to be uprisings and public theory to any great | :14:12. | :14:16. | |
extent about today. You have discovered an interesting figure. | :14:17. | :14:20. | |
Buried in one of the document is a figure for how much it might cost | :14:21. | :14:24. | |
Whitehall to go through the process of us leaving the European Union. | :14:25. | :14:27. | |
There's been a lot of concern in recent days about how many civil | :14:28. | :14:32. | |
servants we will need, is Whitehall up to it? The statement reveals | :14:33. | :14:37. | |
expect ?412 million to be the cost just in Whitehall of getting through | :14:38. | :14:44. | |
our departure from the EU. Nothing to do with a potential consequences | :14:45. | :14:47. | |
for the economy. Actually what it will cost central government to get | :14:48. | :14:53. | |
this done. At a time they have to look for savings all over the place, | :14:54. | :14:58. | |
a billion quid just on admin, quite a big lot of money. To what extent, | :14:59. | :15:06. | |
you are a new Chancellor, so maybe you have a benchmark, get the worst | :15:07. | :15:12. | |
out first. And everything gets better. Should we look at it like | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
that? Absolutely. He's like a new Chief Executive. You come in, you | :15:18. | :15:25. | |
make sure that your bottom line, you're not going to minute belated, | :15:26. | :15:29. | |
but it is as gloomy as possible because then things can look better. | :15:30. | :15:34. | |
I don't think Philip Hammond will be looking to the headlines tomorrow or | :15:35. | :15:42. | |
tonight, or next month, but don't forget 2020, and a general election, | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
we just chatted with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, who did | :15:48. | :15:50. | |
not rule out making that budget balance target much more distinct | :15:51. | :15:57. | |
either time of 2020. He had a vague notion about it now but by the | :15:58. | :16:01. | |
election, he could be more confident about where things are going. | :16:02. | :16:09. | |
The Government cannot let cuts and people on benefits take more of the | :16:10. | :16:15. | |
pain. George Osborne was getting to the point where the Conservative | :16:16. | :16:19. | |
Party were clear on voting down many of his tax credit changes. Philip | :16:20. | :16:23. | |
Hammond needs to be a Chancellor who does what very few chancellors have | :16:24. | :16:29. | |
managed to do over the decades and improve our economic performance | :16:30. | :16:32. | |
will improve productivity. The other thing can not just about managing | :16:33. | :16:36. | |
families are people getting onto the housing ladder, they have announced | :16:37. | :16:40. | |
the group policies around house-building they hope will | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
kick-start the housing market. These are incredibly slow, long-term, | :16:46. | :16:49. | |
deeply entrenched problems. Philip Hammond knows in his gut they will | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
be the test of his Chancellor ship rather than the state of the public | :16:55. | :17:04. | |
finances. Let's get more political reaction now. | :17:05. | :17:14. | |
We will go to the SNP Stuart Hovey. Every little helps. There is a 15, | :17:15. | :17:32. | |
16% capital cut. All of that is helpful. The big story today was the | :17:33. | :17:40. | |
way in which the 2010 promised to be fulfilled in 2015 numbers in | :17:41. | :17:43. | |
deficit, debt and borrowing will not be met and the end of this | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
Parliament. In the caves of the debt figure, not at all for it confirms | :17:48. | :17:51. | |
what we have been saying for some time this decade of posterity has | :17:52. | :17:57. | |
been an unmitigated disaster if the intention were to turn the numbers | :17:58. | :18:07. | |
around -- austerity. Scotland's deficit is about 10% of GDP cost you | :18:08. | :18:11. | |
are not really in a position to lecture the Chancellor, are you? | :18:12. | :18:17. | |
Most of Scotland's con is run from London. -- economy is run from | :18:18. | :18:27. | |
London. Whilst useful, it is not the whole amount, far from it. The | :18:28. | :18:33. | |
deficit is driven by economic policy here. I am delighted that the | :18:34. | :18:37. | |
Chancellor has changed tack by some extent. You must have seen some of | :18:38. | :18:44. | |
this money coming. Have you given any thought as to how you will spend | :18:45. | :18:50. | |
it? There were lots of rumours about what he might do in terms of | :18:51. | :18:55. | |
capital, in terms of releasing the purse strings or not releasing the | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
purse strings. Lots of mixed messages. The Government will | :19:01. | :19:04. | |
determine before the Scottish Government budget does with the | :19:05. | :19:07. | |
money and when they will get it. I am in no position to spend Scottish | :19:08. | :19:14. | |
Government finances. I understand that. You have some new welfare | :19:15. | :19:18. | |
powers and you have been highly critical of the Government's | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
approach to disabled claimants. Would you start to top up these | :19:24. | :19:29. | |
amounts herself in Scotland? That is a set of measures to be announced in | :19:30. | :19:34. | |
the budget precisely how the powers are used and what level of | :19:35. | :19:38. | |
mitigation might be possible in certain circumstances. I would not | :19:39. | :19:43. | |
want to prejudge a budget statement that has not been made in Holyrood. | :19:44. | :19:48. | |
That would be completely wrong. I understand that. Do you think some | :19:49. | :19:53. | |
of your supporters would be blamed if they felt disappointed you are | :19:54. | :19:57. | |
not rushing ahead to use the new powers you have? You seem to be | :19:58. | :20:02. | |
taking your time overtaking them up, having campaigned so aggressively | :20:03. | :20:07. | |
for them. As the First Minister has said, we will take the powers when | :20:08. | :20:11. | |
offered and use them when we are able. The welfare system needs to be | :20:12. | :20:16. | |
put into place to look to deliver a Social Security system that is fit | :20:17. | :20:21. | |
for purpose. Given we have just had a UK statement, it might be slightly | :20:22. | :20:26. | |
better to remind ourselves what he did today in terms of Social | :20:27. | :20:29. | |
Security was change the taper, the amount of money people can take | :20:30. | :20:33. | |
before they start to lose their benefits by 2p in the pound. On the | :20:34. | :20:38. | |
minimum wage but that is about 14p an hour, not a king's runs and might | :20:39. | :20:48. | |
be to turn lives around. What about the City deal? I understand every | :20:49. | :20:50. | |
city in Scotland will now have a city deal? We have been calling for | :20:51. | :20:58. | |
this. Fans have been laid. I spoke to the team a month ago. -- plans. | :20:59. | :21:05. | |
What is done with that in terms of outcome and jobs needs to be fully | :21:06. | :21:11. | |
packaged. That is a sellable deal. We will need to make sure that is | :21:12. | :21:17. | |
delivered in full and on time. I am sure that Dundee, Perth and Angus | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
and East Fife will benefit greatly from it. An extraordinary job has | :21:23. | :21:33. | |
been done. Congratulations to them. Let's get more reaction from our | :21:34. | :21:38. | |
business editor. The cities have been very important in the Autumn | :21:39. | :21:42. | |
Statement given the post Brexit situation. Let's go back to Simon | :21:43. | :21:46. | |
Jack. We have been looking at markets and how they have been | :21:47. | :21:50. | |
reacting to what they have heard. The big thing today is what the | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
public finances will look like. We have 90% debt as a percentage of GDP | :21:55. | :22:01. | |
in 2017/18, the highest it has been for 50 years of this chart here | :22:02. | :22:04. | |
tells us what the Government has to pay to borrow money over ten years. | :22:05. | :22:11. | |
It has gone from 1.36% this morning to 1.4%. In fixed income terms, in | :22:12. | :22:17. | |
bond terms, that is a big move. We are close to a total debt bill of | :22:18. | :22:25. | |
people to see what they have taken away from the Autumn Statement. | :22:26. | :22:36. | |
First of all, what jumped out at you from today's statement? Thinking of | :22:37. | :22:42. | |
our front page tomorrow, it has to be the underlying economic | :22:43. | :22:46. | |
conditions. It seems to be and in case of increased debt. Borrowing | :22:47. | :22:52. | |
will be back. Almost Keynesian in some levels. Huge pledges of | :22:53. | :22:57. | |
investment in certain sectors. Lower growth, lower tax receipts and | :22:58. | :23:01. | |
higher borrowing. There were not huge numbers of rabbits out of the | :23:02. | :23:05. | |
hat. There were some cheeky tax rises. We have had some angry | :23:06. | :23:10. | |
insurance company bosses on the phone about a particular tax rise | :23:11. | :23:15. | |
from 10% to 12% on insurance premiums. Gloomy, underlying | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
economic conditions. He said the target to eliminate the deficit went | :23:21. | :23:23. | |
at other windows some time ago. That was unrealistic. The new target to | :23:24. | :23:29. | |
balance the books sometimes in the next parliament, or as as soon as | :23:30. | :23:33. | |
possible. Osborne had his fiscal rules and failed to meet those. | :23:34. | :23:42. | |
Hamilton has created several more. -- Hammond. The debt has been | :23:43. | :23:51. | |
described as eye watering. It is an eye watering situation. Those are | :23:52. | :23:54. | |
the conditions we have to operate in. A big emphasis on the spending | :23:55. | :24:02. | |
he did announce today. A big emphasis on infrastructure and | :24:03. | :24:05. | |
productivity. What did you make of it? A welcome down payment on future | :24:06. | :24:13. | |
productivity of the economy. ?23 billion fund focusing on local | :24:14. | :24:16. | |
infrastructure. That was something new. Local pinch points. Unlocking | :24:17. | :24:24. | |
of regional growth. Plans announced on Monday with research and | :24:25. | :24:27. | |
development. Also the developer had of new ideas in the UK. And of | :24:28. | :24:32. | |
course broadband. That is something businesses are talking a lot about | :24:33. | :24:38. | |
in terms of productivity. Also, unlocking the housing piece of this | :24:39. | :24:42. | |
is difficult without roads and infrastructure to support new | :24:43. | :24:45. | |
building. There was a renewed focus on that. Did you hear enough? We | :24:46. | :24:52. | |
were pleased to see that. And was a connection between housing and | :24:53. | :24:54. | |
transport and a commitment to building new homes. All types of | :24:55. | :24:59. | |
different homes. Some emphasis on ownership has been replaced by | :25:00. | :25:03. | |
recognition that there needs to be a range of different kinds of housing. | :25:04. | :25:09. | |
That was very good news. I did not hear keeping the capital allowances | :25:10. | :25:13. | |
piece very high for businesses. That is the tax-free amount they can | :25:14. | :25:17. | |
invest in new plant, machinery and processes. He could have gone | :25:18. | :25:22. | |
further. Given we have the downgrade for next year, close to the CBI | :25:23. | :25:26. | |
forecasts that you are facing uncertainty. Businesses are facing | :25:27. | :25:30. | |
higher prices coming through. There was nothing in now for the | :25:31. | :25:34. | |
short-term investment picture. We think the Chancellor should have a | :25:35. | :25:40. | |
watching brief on that. No further cuts to corporation tax. There was | :25:41. | :25:45. | |
chat that if we want the lowest corporation tax in the world and Mr | :25:46. | :25:49. | |
Trump cuts it, we would go lower than 17, which is the aspiration | :25:50. | :25:56. | |
through this Parliament to 15. Izzy your -- do you think it is not | :25:57. | :26:02. | |
uppermost in your minds? Business it would rather the business road map | :26:03. | :26:06. | |
was confirmed and the 17% is confirmed. And not hearing huge | :26:07. | :26:09. | |
calls for it to go lower. We are hearing for some of the investment | :26:10. | :26:14. | |
allowances and incentives to invest on the infrastructure challenges to | :26:15. | :26:18. | |
be to hire up on the left bank Corporation tax. I heard Christian | :26:19. | :26:24. | |
saying the triple lock is saved till 2020 but then we will have to think | :26:25. | :26:29. | |
again. He hinted at that. Given the enormous fiscal consolidation which | :26:30. | :26:33. | |
is pencilled in, that is code for cuts down the line. If there is a | :26:34. | :26:37. | |
serious suggestion they will do that at the same time as telling | :26:38. | :26:40. | |
pensioners we are coming for your perks, I am not sure anyone in | :26:41. | :26:44. | |
government wants to go into an election even if facing Jeremy | :26:45. | :26:51. | |
Corbyn, with those kinds of pledges. Thank you both. Government borrowing | :26:52. | :26:55. | |
costs getting a bit more expensive today as we look to a bleaker fiscal | :26:56. | :26:59. | |
picture going forward. The pound is pretty steady but the city was | :27:00. | :27:03. | |
braced for gloomy economic forecasts and that is what they got. | :27:04. | :27:07. | |
We can get Labour's view on the statement. | :27:08. | :27:13. | |
Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Rebecca | :27:14. | :27:16. | |
We carried John McDonnell's critique to the Autumn Statement in full. Do | :27:17. | :27:27. | |
you want to balance the books? Certainly. We would have liked to | :27:28. | :27:32. | |
have seen more certainty from the Chancellor today. He has abandoned | :27:33. | :27:37. | |
George Osborne's suppers rule, which we thought was in achievable but he | :27:38. | :27:41. | |
has not given us a date in terms of bringing down the deficit. We have a | :27:42. | :27:47. | |
fiscal credibility rule. George Osborne is to couple capital | :27:48. | :27:53. | |
expenditure with public spending. We would separate that. You would not | :27:54. | :27:57. | |
need to borrow in terms of public spending. That would come out of tax | :27:58. | :28:01. | |
receipts. Capital expenditure would be kept separate. At the same time, | :28:02. | :28:09. | |
you would bring down the deficit. You are promising to spend a lot | :28:10. | :28:13. | |
more on current spending. You have called for the reversal of the | :28:14. | :28:18. | |
Universal Credit cuts, at least 3 billion. You want much more money | :28:19. | :28:24. | |
for the NHS and full social care. That is a multi-billion current | :28:25. | :28:28. | |
spending as well. There are a number of other areas in welfare you where | :28:29. | :28:32. | |
you want to spend more or restore the cuts that have been made. I | :28:33. | :28:35. | |
don't understand McGivern you're going to add all of that to current | :28:36. | :28:40. | |
spending, when you would balance that. We would not have cut capital | :28:41. | :28:48. | |
gains tax or slashed inheritance tax for the most wealthy in society and | :28:49. | :28:53. | |
expected the most vulnerable in society having to shoulder the | :28:54. | :28:59. | |
burden. In terms of raising further revenue through taxes, we have a tax | :29:00. | :29:04. | |
avoidance transparency programme that we would enforce. How much | :29:05. | :29:09. | |
would that raise? ?5 billion is what the Government intends to recoup. | :29:10. | :29:13. | |
Pundits outside of government estimate anything between 70 billion | :29:14. | :29:21. | |
to 130 billion going out of the country in terms of tax avoidance. | :29:22. | :29:25. | |
We would have to examine that. The problem we have at the moment is the | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
Government is getting back on the resources it has within HMR see. It | :29:30. | :29:34. | |
is cutting the number of offices it has and employees in each | :29:35. | :29:37. | |
department. In order to get an accurate vision on how much money we | :29:38. | :29:42. | |
are using each year, the Government does not have those resources. We | :29:43. | :29:46. | |
would make sure that HMRC was adequately resourced. In terms of | :29:47. | :29:52. | |
increasing tax revenue, we must surely get productivity levels up. | :29:53. | :29:57. | |
The OBR report today at horrific productivity predictions yet again. | :29:58. | :30:01. | |
The title referred to in his speech can match the fact he appreciated | :30:02. | :30:05. | |
there was a productivity problem. Something is not going well for this | :30:06. | :30:09. | |
government. They are not investing in industry infrastructure or | :30:10. | :30:12. | |
creating the high-paid, high skilled jobs of the future which would | :30:13. | :30:16. | |
result in future tax returns for the Government. Why do you want to | :30:17. | :30:22. | |
balance the books? It is fiscally responsible to so do. You cannot | :30:23. | :30:25. | |
pluck money from the money tree. It is responsible for the Government to | :30:26. | :30:28. | |
invest in the future. What other government does it, | :30:29. | :30:38. | |
balance the books around the western world? There are a number of fiscal | :30:39. | :30:41. | |
positions taken by other governments around the world. It's difficult to | :30:42. | :30:47. | |
pinpoint particular governments who have a 0% deficit. Germany. They | :30:48. | :30:54. | |
have had a long-term strategy. As I look at Italy, France, Spain, United | :30:55. | :31:01. | |
States, they are not planning to balance the books. I wondered why... | :31:02. | :31:07. | |
No, it's fiscally responsible to balance the books but can't do it at | :31:08. | :31:11. | |
the expense of not investing in the future and your future | :31:12. | :31:12. | |
infrastructure because you have to balance the books of the same time | :31:13. | :31:16. | |
as ensuring future productivity and tax receipts. What would you do? We | :31:17. | :31:21. | |
would invest in infrastructure on a larger scale. What the Chancellor | :31:22. | :31:26. | |
said today was welcome and some of it is a repeat of what his | :31:27. | :31:28. | |
predecessor had put forward. That takes a long time for infrastructure | :31:29. | :31:35. | |
investment to happen and to have an impact. What would you do to raise | :31:36. | :31:39. | |
it in the next couple of years? There's a large number of shovel | :31:40. | :31:43. | |
ready project in the pipeline and we didn't hear many of those. I've got | :31:44. | :31:47. | |
a massively long list I could e-mail across to you. We've got HS2 which | :31:48. | :31:53. | |
doesn't seem to be progressing. That is not shovel ready. We have got a | :31:54. | :31:59. | |
vast number of them and they are available on the government website. | :32:00. | :32:04. | |
I understand the website is full of infrastructure projects. A lot of | :32:05. | :32:10. | |
them have not been lamented but give me an infrastructure project that is | :32:11. | :32:16. | |
shovel ready. Swansea tidal lagoon. That will take years to plan. It | :32:17. | :32:19. | |
hasn't even got planning permission yet. If you look on the government | :32:20. | :32:24. | |
website, you can see a long list of the shovel ready projects if you are | :32:25. | :32:30. | |
interest to do so. No, the point is this. What I see on the government | :32:31. | :32:35. | |
website, hold on, what I see on the government website is a long list of | :32:36. | :32:38. | |
infrastructure projects, but what I don't see is shovel ready. I will | :32:39. | :32:44. | |
give you an example. HS2 is approved, eight years ago, hardly | :32:45. | :32:49. | |
shovel ready. The diggers turned up last week to begin part of the | :32:50. | :32:54. | |
building but didn't have the right local authority permits and they | :32:55. | :32:58. | |
were sent away and they won't be allowed back until the New Year. It | :32:59. | :33:03. | |
is not shovel ready. I appreciate a number of local issues on particular | :33:04. | :33:08. | |
projects and they need to be addressed as quickly as possible but | :33:09. | :33:12. | |
there's a number of projects if the Chancellor did further investigation | :33:13. | :33:15. | |
on, he would find they were shovel ready. If you look of the government | :33:16. | :33:18. | |
website, there's a long list of those available. I do appreciate | :33:19. | :33:23. | |
there are some affected by local considerations but the point is, the | :33:24. | :33:27. | |
Chancellor has not even touch the side in what we need to secure | :33:28. | :33:31. | |
further productivity increases in this country and it's not just | :33:32. | :33:34. | |
talking about shovel body project but investing in skills and | :33:35. | :33:38. | |
education. We've seen horrific cuts to education in the last few years | :33:39. | :33:41. | |
and we are not making art workforce skilled for the future. Do you buy | :33:42. | :33:49. | |
the OBR's verdict the government will end up borrowing a lot more | :33:50. | :33:53. | |
money because of the impact of Brexit? Does Labour accept that? We | :33:54. | :34:00. | |
are in uncertain times and we've seen chaos on the government so far. | :34:01. | :34:05. | |
In terms of our red Line, we want tariff free access at the least to | :34:06. | :34:08. | |
the single market and I think that's what business is calling for, as | :34:09. | :34:11. | |
well. We have seen nothing to suggest that will be pushed forward | :34:12. | :34:14. | |
by this government coming forward and in terms of borrowing, I | :34:15. | :34:17. | |
couldn't hazard a guess at the amount of money the government would | :34:18. | :34:21. | |
have to borrow in terms of a worsening Brexit situation. The OBR | :34:22. | :34:26. | |
of said there will be ?58 billion extra borrowing they put down to | :34:27. | :34:32. | |
Brexit and that is the biggest fact the OBR forecast today. Do you | :34:33. | :34:37. | |
accept the impact of the economy of our decision? It is a forecast and | :34:38. | :34:45. | |
the caveat about in the report is a forecast dependent on the | :34:46. | :34:48. | |
government's ongoing negotiations. The government can put in place | :34:49. | :34:51. | |
initiatives now to try and alleviate any need to do that. That would be | :34:52. | :34:56. | |
demanding tariff free access to the single market for a start. We just | :34:57. | :35:00. | |
want some certainty going forward and we know we have got certainty on | :35:01. | :35:06. | |
corporation tax. As the CBI mentioned earlier, we just want to | :35:07. | :35:08. | |
see more certainty going forward in terms of what other terms for exit | :35:09. | :35:13. | |
in the EU are going to be. At the very least, some red lines for | :35:14. | :35:19. | |
business. The public finances. Given that if you win in 2020 will be | :35:20. | :35:24. | |
taking over a government where the debt to GDP ratio would be flirting | :35:25. | :35:30. | |
with 90%, do you still think, at that point, the markets and | :35:31. | :35:36. | |
investors in debt would support Labour borrowing more money? I think | :35:37. | :35:42. | |
Mark Carney made a statement not so long ago when he said we rely on our | :35:43. | :35:48. | |
friends overseas, the kindness of strangers. The longer our situation | :35:49. | :35:52. | |
is uncertain, the longer that kindness goes away... I'm wondering, | :35:53. | :35:57. | |
given the downgrading of the public finances by the Office for Budget | :35:58. | :36:02. | |
Responsibility today, do you stick to the notion that the markets would | :36:03. | :36:05. | |
still support a Labour government borrowing more money given that in | :36:06. | :36:11. | |
2020 the public finances are going to be in far worse state than you | :36:12. | :36:16. | |
thought you were going to inherit if you are the election? We really hope | :36:17. | :36:21. | |
they are not and we need to see some business Red Line 's. Do you think | :36:22. | :36:26. | |
you can borrow more? You need to borrow to invest in infrastructure. | :36:27. | :36:31. | |
You think you could borrow more even though the ratio... We would have to | :36:32. | :36:34. | |
assess the public finances at the time you could cut off your arms | :36:35. | :36:38. | |
you'd have to make sure you are securing future productivity for the | :36:39. | :36:42. | |
country but without a crystal ball, but I couldn't make an assessment of | :36:43. | :36:45. | |
the fiscal situation at the time we exit of the EU, but I really do | :36:46. | :36:50. | |
implore the Chancellor to start pushing for tariff free access to | :36:51. | :36:53. | |
the single market because it's imperative. He should also be | :36:54. | :36:58. | |
pushing for the financial passport. Even though we have seen borrowing | :36:59. | :37:04. | |
costs for the government today slowly rising, and inflation risk in | :37:05. | :37:07. | |
particular, do you store think the market will support you borrowing | :37:08. | :37:11. | |
more on top of what the OBR is saying already? As I said, we have | :37:12. | :37:17. | |
do assess the fiscal situation at the time. I would not want us to be | :37:18. | :37:20. | |
in a worsening financial situation and we will be if this government | :37:21. | :37:24. | |
doesn't take strong action in terms of Brexit. We have to assess the | :37:25. | :37:28. | |
financial situation of the time to specify the amounts we would borrow | :37:29. | :37:32. | |
and you are right in what you say, the amount of debt we are inward | :37:33. | :37:38. | |
effect that. Do you want the government to outline its red lines | :37:39. | :37:45. | |
on Brexit? Understandable position. It's the job of the opposition to do | :37:46. | :37:50. | |
that. What is your Red Line? Would you leave membership of the single | :37:51. | :37:54. | |
market? We wouldn't want to leave membership of the single market but | :37:55. | :37:57. | |
we would want tariff free access. You said you wouldn't leave | :37:58. | :38:02. | |
membership of the single market. We wouldn't like to. Whether that's on | :38:03. | :38:07. | |
the card or not, remains to be seen, but we want at least a guarantee | :38:08. | :38:10. | |
from the government they will maintain some degree of access. I | :38:11. | :38:16. | |
understand, that's a question for the government, I understand that. I | :38:17. | :38:19. | |
want to know Labour's position because these matters could be | :38:20. | :38:23. | |
unresolved. You have said that you would want to remain a member of the | :38:24. | :38:29. | |
single market? Our bare minimum is access to a single market, tariff | :38:30. | :38:33. | |
free. Would you be prepared to remain as a member? Whether that's | :38:34. | :38:38. | |
achievable or not is another matter. What about the customs union? Yes, | :38:39. | :38:43. | |
we think it's imperative to remain. You would accept by doing that this | :38:44. | :38:46. | |
country couldn't make its own free-trade deals? Well, I mean, all | :38:47. | :38:56. | |
things are negotiable. We would demand to remain part of a customs | :38:57. | :39:00. | |
union because it would have a detrimental impact. There's no | :39:01. | :39:04. | |
member of the customs union who makes its own free-trade deals, so | :39:05. | :39:07. | |
you would accept that we could not then do free-trade deals with | :39:08. | :39:11. | |
Canada, America, Australia, India? If Labour's policy sticks. Because | :39:12. | :39:17. | |
it hasn't happened so far doesn't mean it might not be able to happen | :39:18. | :39:22. | |
in the future, Andrew. We are in politically uncertain times at the | :39:23. | :39:25. | |
moment and if you are told me we would be out of the EU six months | :39:26. | :39:28. | |
ago I would have laughed. The customs union is quite clear on | :39:29. | :39:35. | |
trade goods. The whole point of being in the customs union is the | :39:36. | :39:39. | |
customs union does that free-trade deals so you can't have both. Do you | :39:40. | :39:44. | |
understand that? We would want to remain part of a customs union and | :39:45. | :39:47. | |
then we'll see what the government puts forward on that. OK, we believe | :39:48. | :39:51. | |
that therefore suffering to very much. | :39:52. | :39:52. | |
Let's go over to Northern Ireland now and our political editor | :39:53. | :39:55. | |
What has been the reaction in Northern Ireland? I think initially | :39:56. | :40:02. | |
welcomed to the increase there's going to be in capital spending on | :40:03. | :40:05. | |
infrastructure because of course that trickles down to the regions | :40:06. | :40:10. | |
like Northern Ireland. We are due over the next four years for a ?250 | :40:11. | :40:17. | |
million increase in capital spending on infrastructure and so that will | :40:18. | :40:20. | |
be welcomed by the construction industry locally. And properly by | :40:21. | :40:23. | |
most politicians. This has been an area where there's been a | :40:24. | :40:26. | |
traditional amount of debate about whether we would miss out, not being | :40:27. | :40:30. | |
able to build much-needed road schemes because of Brexit, because | :40:31. | :40:34. | |
the local executive was implying for funding, planning to apply for | :40:35. | :40:37. | |
funding from the European Union in relation to that, so I think over | :40:38. | :40:41. | |
the next few weeks, we are expecting our local budget in the middle of | :40:42. | :40:45. | |
December, to have a debate about what the Chancellor has announced | :40:46. | :40:52. | |
today and whether it plug the gap. Let's go back to College Green. | :40:53. | :40:57. | |
Caroline Lucas from the Green party and Jonathan Edwards from Plaid | :40:58. | :41:03. | |
Cymru. What is your overall reaction, Caroline? At a time when | :41:04. | :41:08. | |
economic times, the country is moving into uncharted waters of | :41:09. | :41:11. | |
levels of insecurity higher than ever before, I was hoping from this | :41:12. | :41:16. | |
Chancellor without more policies to protect my constituents in Brighton | :41:17. | :41:20. | |
much better. We are seeing instead of Chancellor committed to give tax | :41:21. | :41:24. | |
breaks to the richest, to corporations, and is taking away | :41:25. | :41:28. | |
from the poorest in order to spend on that. When you add to that the | :41:29. | :41:31. | |
fact this is a Chancellor who didn't once mention the words climate | :41:32. | :41:35. | |
change, in the year on record as the hottest ever, a year when we know | :41:36. | :41:41. | |
that we absolutely could be investing in energy efficiency, | :41:42. | :41:44. | |
creating jobs, getting emissions down, getting peoples fuel bills | :41:45. | :41:48. | |
down, there was some win-win situations which could of been good | :41:49. | :41:51. | |
for people and the environment and he just blew it. Jonathan, what is | :41:52. | :41:57. | |
the Plaid Cymru V1 this? The mythical Tory long-term plan was | :41:58. | :42:02. | |
shelved in a short-term economic scramble on the back of a declining | :42:03. | :42:07. | |
OBR forecast over five years. It's not as bad news for public finances | :42:08. | :42:14. | |
but in terms of weakening job prospects, especially women look at | :42:15. | :42:17. | |
the inflation forecast. One of the big striking aspects of the | :42:18. | :42:22. | |
statement is there was no indication from the Chancellor on what is | :42:23. | :42:25. | |
position will be in terms of the single market and the customs union | :42:26. | :42:29. | |
going forward. An extra 400 million for the Welsh government in this. | :42:30. | :42:35. | |
Any ideas how you will spend it? We've lost 400 million over five | :42:36. | :42:39. | |
years, of course. It will be spent on renovating Buckingham Palace, and | :42:40. | :42:46. | |
the place behind me, it wasn't a serious fiscal intervention because | :42:47. | :42:49. | |
if you go back to the levels of infrastructure investment prior to | :42:50. | :42:57. | |
the crash in 2008, 1% extra pair and GDP, 20 billion across the UK and a | :42:58. | :43:01. | |
billion per annum for Wales, so the money announced, although welcome, | :43:02. | :43:05. | |
isn't a serious economic intention. Philip Hammond confirmed the | :43:06. | :43:12. | |
starting rate, 40% tax break, would rise by 2020 up to 50,000. John | :43:13. | :43:17. | |
McDonnell from Labour has backed that. The Green party is opposed to | :43:18. | :43:22. | |
that. A lot of people who would benefit are not rich, moderately | :43:23. | :43:29. | |
affluent at most. Teachers, police officers, other public sector | :43:30. | :43:33. | |
workers. Why would you be against them getting a fairer deal? I'm | :43:34. | :43:38. | |
against it because it's essentially being paid for by some of the | :43:39. | :43:41. | |
poorest people, who are seeing changes on Universal Credit but not | :43:42. | :43:50. | |
going to help them. Is being paid for off the backs of the poorest | :43:51. | :43:54. | |
people and that's why we are objecting to it. Essentially, this | :43:55. | :43:57. | |
is a budget yet again for the more wealthy in spite of the fact only a | :43:58. | :44:01. | |
few months ago Theresa May were standing on the doorstep of Downing | :44:02. | :44:04. | |
Street promising as this was going to be a budget and a country under | :44:05. | :44:09. | |
government putting some of the poorest working class people at its | :44:10. | :44:11. | |
heart. This budget demonstrates that was a myth. Caroline Lucas and | :44:12. | :44:17. | |
Jonathan Edwards, thank you very much for joining us from College | :44:18. | :44:27. | |
Green. I want to go to Kamal full so we should get an international | :44:28. | :44:31. | |
context. The government fiscal politician in this country is | :44:32. | :44:33. | |
listening, but we are not alone. The US budget deficit ended on October | :44:34. | :44:41. | |
the 1st, it is up 36% year-on-year. The French budget deficit is rising. | :44:42. | :44:46. | |
The commission has said to the Spanish and Portuguese, we will not | :44:47. | :44:51. | |
penalised you even though you are not sticking to the Maastricht | :44:52. | :44:56. | |
rules. The Italian budget deficit is in some trouble. Could be in more | :44:57. | :45:01. | |
trouble in a couple of weeks. I would suggest what Mr Hammond has | :45:02. | :45:07. | |
done, intentional or not, he's moving with the flow with fiscal | :45:08. | :45:10. | |
policy is once again taking centre stage? | :45:11. | :45:16. | |
I think the issue for Philip Hammond will be, do the markets believe, is | :45:17. | :45:23. | |
invest in our debt, that the position he is outlining is | :45:24. | :45:29. | |
sustainable? At 90%, many economists judge that a 90% debt to GDP ratio, | :45:30. | :45:34. | |
that sustainability issue is questionable. Why can the Italians | :45:35. | :45:42. | |
borrow under 2%? They do not have the same financial city issues we | :45:43. | :45:48. | |
have. They have not spent the amounts of money we have two rescue | :45:49. | :45:55. | |
our banks. Governments generally are in a pretty benign situation at the | :45:56. | :46:01. | |
moment. The big issue is the interest being charged on all | :46:02. | :46:06. | |
government debt, in the next five years, will rise. We spend over ?30 | :46:07. | :46:12. | |
billion a year servicing our debt. That is why it matters. You asked | :46:13. | :46:19. | |
Labour, why does it matter about balancing the books? I was surprised | :46:20. | :46:22. | |
you didn't say, you need to balance the books or bring in a surplus to | :46:23. | :46:26. | |
bring debt stands you can spend less money servicing the debt and spend | :46:27. | :46:33. | |
money on schools. That is why fiscal discipline is important for this | :46:34. | :46:39. | |
government. If those interest rates start to rise as inflation risk | :46:40. | :46:45. | |
start to rise and premiums start to rise, the costs go up and up and up. | :46:46. | :46:49. | |
Mat ads to your borrowing and creates an economic problem for you | :46:50. | :46:56. | |
as a government. -- that adds to your borrowing. Yes, you are right. | :46:57. | :47:01. | |
In these benign times, fiscal policy can take more of the weight of the | :47:02. | :47:06. | |
problem. The issue is that economies are not performing well enough to | :47:07. | :47:11. | |
create wealth for people across all the income spectrum. It is becoming | :47:12. | :47:17. | |
more expensive for governments to borrow Billy across the western | :47:18. | :47:22. | |
world now. The British government is finding that out and now the man | :47:23. | :47:26. | |
government as well. Let's go back to Joe coe born -- JoCo in Portsmouth. | :47:27. | :47:40. | |
I'm here with the guys working in the racing catamaran. They are | :47:41. | :47:46. | |
putting the finishing touches to this vote, making it watertight and | :47:47. | :47:50. | |
ready to hit the waters around the media for the America's Cup next | :47:51. | :47:54. | |
spring. While they are busy working here in Portsmouth, Philip Hammond | :47:55. | :47:58. | |
says he is worried about productivity levels generally across | :47:59. | :48:02. | |
the UK. We are behind France, Germany and the US. Many British | :48:03. | :48:06. | |
people are working longer hours for not very much pain. He confirmed the | :48:07. | :48:10. | |
announcement that the National Living Wage would go up from ?7 20 | :48:11. | :48:20. | |
to ?7.50 an hour. That is, of course, may be good news for some of | :48:21. | :48:24. | |
your employees. How will it impact to you? It has gone up 80p, which is | :48:25. | :48:31. | |
a lot considering our profit has still outweigh that of the staff | :48:32. | :48:36. | |
costs. We are employing anyone from 25 plus at ?7.50. One of two things | :48:37. | :48:46. | |
will happen. Our wage bill will keep increasing and we will employ young | :48:47. | :48:51. | |
people. So, you will need to make up the costs. Will you put prices up to | :48:52. | :48:57. | |
your customers? No. That is one thing I will try my best not to do. | :48:58. | :49:02. | |
Even though we are currently playing a 5% to 12% increase already on our | :49:03. | :49:08. | |
imports... You have already experienced higher prices you are | :49:09. | :49:16. | |
having to pay. Up to 12%. When did that stop happening? About two | :49:17. | :49:20. | |
months ago. Higher prices of feeding three. There are warnings of higher | :49:21. | :49:24. | |
inflation down the line. How will you make the balancing act happen? | :49:25. | :49:32. | |
It will be hard. I intend to stock from local suppliers make sure we | :49:33. | :49:35. | |
are getting the best prices possible. What are you most worried | :49:36. | :49:42. | |
about going forward as a small business? That the Government will | :49:43. | :49:48. | |
push for changes and not imply them. They will not see what we are | :49:49. | :49:53. | |
struggling with. It is tough now and you are worrying it will get more | :49:54. | :49:57. | |
difficult in the future. You are not the only business in Portsmouth. To | :49:58. | :50:01. | |
get a broader view of other businesses in the area and right | :50:02. | :50:03. | |
across the county on the south coast, let's speak to Mr Dunne from | :50:04. | :50:08. | |
the Chambers of commerce. What do you make of the statement today? It | :50:09. | :50:14. | |
seems solid and reliable and much expected statement. It is when you | :50:15. | :50:18. | |
delve down into the detail and we have got to see a lot of that yet. | :50:19. | :50:23. | |
It is about what it means for Hampshire and the. Whilst we welcome | :50:24. | :50:29. | |
am obviously, infrastructure and digital instructor at that, there | :50:30. | :50:32. | |
are questions as to whether some of that funding will be going. -- | :50:33. | :50:37. | |
infrastructure. How badly is that needed? Infrastructure in the south | :50:38. | :50:44. | |
is creaking in terms of rail network and the East - West connection | :50:45. | :50:48. | |
between Portsmouth and Southampton. They are in a desperate state of | :50:49. | :50:53. | |
affairs. If that were improved, it would bring traffic off the M25 on. | :50:54. | :50:59. | |
Do you think there has been too much focus on the northern powerhouse? It | :51:00. | :51:04. | |
was the focus of George Osborne and Philip Hammond wants to continue | :51:05. | :51:09. | |
that. Has that been at the expense of areas like Portsmouth and | :51:10. | :51:19. | |
Hampshire? I welcome that for our friends in the north. The Southern | :51:20. | :51:24. | |
powerhouse is generating a lot of money and needs to be supported. | :51:25. | :51:29. | |
That is why the infrastructure in digital, particularly. We have | :51:30. | :51:34. | |
businesses and business parts in Southampton and Portsmouth and they | :51:35. | :51:39. | |
which are reporting unacceptable even slow speeds. That is not a way | :51:40. | :51:44. | |
to boost productivity. Philip Hammond has said he will inject | :51:45. | :51:48. | |
money into the digital infrastructure, into 5G mobile and | :51:49. | :51:52. | |
into some of the road and rail networks. What are some of the other | :51:53. | :51:58. | |
concerns? We would like further clarity on the apprenticeship levy. | :51:59. | :52:02. | |
They're looking at that what it means to them and how it will be | :52:03. | :52:08. | |
implemented. Skills is a huge issue. Everyone is finding it difficult to | :52:09. | :52:12. | |
recruit. We have an ageing workforce will stop we need to make sure that | :52:13. | :52:16. | |
the skills for the future are actually and funded and businesses | :52:17. | :52:23. | |
need support and education needs support. What about skills of people | :52:24. | :52:27. | |
here and skills from people abroad? Are their concerns about what will | :52:28. | :52:33. | |
happen post-Brexit when we leave the EU in terms of people you might be | :52:34. | :52:38. | |
able to employ? There are huge concerns about EU nationals who are | :52:39. | :52:42. | |
here, who are contributing and ensuring we have a skilled | :52:43. | :52:47. | |
workforce. We take them out of the equation and bring in the ageing | :52:48. | :52:52. | |
workforce and record employment and record unemployment in terms of | :52:53. | :52:54. | |
numbers and we have a real cocktail of a problem. Are you optimistic | :52:55. | :53:00. | |
broadly about the future? When you look at growth forecasts, they dip | :53:01. | :53:04. | |
over the next couple of years. Then they pick up again towards 2020. | :53:05. | :53:10. | |
Borrowing will go up and debt will peak around 2018. Are you optimistic | :53:11. | :53:14. | |
than that the Chancellor can balance the books and at the same time allow | :53:15. | :53:19. | |
businesses you know to grow? It was a very good plan. It reflects Brexit | :53:20. | :53:28. | |
and the short-term problems but reflects the long-term opportunities | :53:29. | :53:33. | |
we are seeking to take. I think we could have done more for exporters, | :53:34. | :53:36. | |
first-time exporters, to give incentives. There was the doubling | :53:37. | :53:41. | |
of the allowance on finance but I think we could have done more to | :53:42. | :53:46. | |
actually open up new markets and help the Department of International | :53:47. | :53:50. | |
trade and the overseas Chambers to get out there and open up new | :53:51. | :53:54. | |
markets of innovation, science and technology, where we can actually | :53:55. | :54:00. | |
export these services, these goods, out to other markets. That can only | :54:01. | :54:08. | |
be done to some extent once we have left be you. Do you think those | :54:09. | :54:11. | |
businesses are ready to wait for a period of time until it becomes | :54:12. | :54:13. | |
clearer what the Government's van will be? We can go and export to | :54:14. | :54:20. | |
other areas and we need to get there. That is it from us here in | :54:21. | :54:28. | |
Portsmouth. With that, back to you, Andrew, in the studio. | :54:29. | :54:33. | |
You're just about coming to the end of our coverage. Let's take you | :54:34. | :54:40. | |
through the headlines of Chancellor Hammond's Autumn Statement. The | :54:41. | :54:43. | |
economic forecast the Government debt will peak at just over 90% of | :54:44. | :54:48. | |
GDP in the next financial year. A lot more than was thought in the | :54:49. | :54:54. | |
March budget. There will be ?122 of additional borrowing over the next | :54:55. | :54:58. | |
five years. No sign of being able to get to budget surplus. It will not | :54:59. | :55:04. | |
be reached by 2020. There is no date by which it will be reached at the | :55:05. | :55:09. | |
Government, the OBR, is saying that growth over 2% this year is expected | :55:10. | :55:15. | |
to fall to 1.4% next year. Quite a lot hangs on that particular | :55:16. | :55:20. | |
forecast. Household budgets, the national living rage will rise to | :55:21. | :55:25. | |
?7.50 an hour in April. Fuel duty rise cancelled. That tends to happen | :55:26. | :55:29. | |
in budgets, in the autumn statements. Upfront, letting agency | :55:30. | :55:42. | |
fees are abandoned in England, as they are already in Scotland. The | :55:43. | :55:46. | |
insurance premium tax will increase from 10% to 12% next June. Northern | :55:47. | :55:52. | |
Ireland to receive extra money, Wales extra money and Scotland extra | :55:53. | :55:57. | |
money as well. Another ?1.4 billion to build more affordable homes. | :55:58. | :56:01. | |
Another 1.3 billion to improve transport networks. | :56:02. | :56:07. | |
The Chancellor has given himself more flexibility. He is borrowing | :56:08. | :56:14. | |
more, a lot more than we expected a few months ago full study is looking | :56:15. | :56:19. | |
at a different economic picture. For the Tory government, who had been in | :56:20. | :56:23. | |
charge since 2010, they are looking to basically get a whole decade, ten | :56:24. | :56:31. | |
years, without having been able to complete the Central mission of | :56:32. | :56:35. | |
being able to balance the books. That in itself is quite an | :56:36. | :56:40. | |
extraordinary fact. For Theresa May, with her ambition to help people | :56:41. | :56:43. | |
having a hard time trying to make ends meet, there is really very | :56:44. | :56:49. | |
little in today's they do adds up to a coherent message of some kind of | :56:50. | :56:53. | |
big thing that will really filter through that people will feel as a | :56:54. | :56:58. | |
benefit in their pockets. Neither of those things really, the Chancellor | :56:59. | :57:01. | |
having to deal with a much harder picture and not coming up with | :57:02. | :57:05. | |
measures to tickle the tummies of Middle England. Neither of those | :57:06. | :57:08. | |
credits for the Government. Not the most drastic day but big | :57:09. | :57:16. | |
implications on those things. I will try not to spluttered through your | :57:17. | :57:21. | |
final thoughts. Two words never very comfortable with a Conservative | :57:22. | :57:28. | |
Chancellor, debt up, debt forward. Some not very sexy areas which are | :57:29. | :57:33. | |
vitally important. Productivity and house-building. Philip Hammond has | :57:34. | :57:37. | |
given a nod to that. Transfers over the ages have tried to fix frankly | :57:38. | :57:42. | |
the economic performance of Britain not being strong enough to allow | :57:43. | :57:44. | |
people to increase their wages and to bring wealth to more of those | :57:45. | :57:50. | |
just managing families. The big picture is, 2008 and the financial | :57:51. | :57:59. | |
crisis, we are still paying today. Eight bit like my costs. More than | :58:00. | :58:10. | |
anyone expected in 2008. -- cough. The Government has not been able to | :58:11. | :58:17. | |
fix this. Debt to GDP ratio of 90% is of great concern. Dick Kelly when | :58:18. | :58:20. | |
government borrowing costs will increase over the next five years. | :58:21. | :58:26. | |
Thank you both. We will leave it there. That is it for our coverage | :58:27. | :58:32. | |
of the Autumn Statement. On the day we discover our official forecast | :58:33. | :58:36. | |
does not accept we are heading to recession and growth is continuing | :58:37. | :58:39. | |
and the Government will borrow a lot more. Thank you for joining us. | :58:40. | :58:41. | |
Goodbye. to signify the Africans | :58:42. | :59:04. | |
who were here. | :59:05. | :59:09. |