Browse content similar to 24/11/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics. | :00:37. | :00:40. | |
Brexit will cost the UK economy almost ?60 billion, | :00:41. | :00:43. | |
according to figures unveiled by the Chancellor yesterday, | :00:44. | :00:46. | |
but have forecasters taken too gloomy a view of the UK's ability | :00:47. | :00:50. | |
Thomas Mair was given a whole life sentence by a judge | :00:51. | :00:56. | |
at the Old Bailey yesterday for the brutal murder of MP Jo Cox, | :00:57. | :01:00. | |
but is enough being done to combat far-right extremism? | :01:01. | :01:06. | |
Donald Trump says he'll scrap a Pacific Trade deal on the first | :01:07. | :01:08. | |
So will President Trump use hard - rather than soft - | :01:09. | :01:15. | |
power to restrain the growing power of China? | :01:16. | :01:18. | |
It was the Shadow Chancellor's big moment at the despatch box yesterday | :01:19. | :01:23. | |
and Labour MPs were transfixed - by their mobile phones. | :01:24. | :01:27. | |
Have they got something to learn about mobile phone etiquette? | :01:28. | :01:35. | |
And with us for the whole of the programme today is a purveyor | :01:36. | :01:46. | |
of what's been described as the "dismal science", | :01:47. | :01:48. | |
Now, the Government has been defending the economic forecasts | :01:49. | :01:52. | |
that were used in yesterday's Autumn Statement. | :01:53. | :01:56. | |
The forecasts were produced by the independent Office | :01:57. | :01:59. | |
for Budget Responsibility - and they think that the Government | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
will have to borrow billions more because of the Brexit vote. | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
But that view has been condemned as far too gloomy | :02:06. | :02:07. | |
by Brexit-supporting MPs and economists. | :02:08. | :02:11. | |
So let's remind ourselves what we learnt yesterday, | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
when the Chancellor Philip Hammond got to the despatch box. | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
Between now and 2021, the Government is forecast | :02:20. | :02:24. | |
to borrow ?122 billion more than was originally predicted back | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
Nearly half of that extra borrowing, ?58.7 billion, is due | :02:28. | :02:35. | |
That's because of economic factors like lower migration | :02:36. | :02:43. | |
and higher inflation which, the OBR says, are linked to Brexit. | :02:44. | :02:46. | |
All that extra borrowing is obviously going to mean more debt. | :02:47. | :02:52. | |
The public finances are forecast to be nearly ?2 trillion | :02:53. | :02:54. | |
The debt-to-GDP ratio is also heading upwards. | :02:55. | :03:02. | |
It's set to peak at 90.2% in the next financial year, | :03:03. | :03:05. | |
And Philip Hammond said that the Government will now get rid | :03:06. | :03:13. | |
of the deficit "as soon as practicable" in | :03:14. | :03:15. | |
Philip Hammond has been talking about those forecasts this morning. | :03:16. | :03:19. | |
There are lots of uncertainties in the world and economic | :03:20. | :03:26. | |
forecasters have to try and make forecasts, notwithstanding | :03:27. | :03:28. | |
Our job is to respond to the forecasts and, | :03:29. | :03:35. | |
as I tried to do yesterday, to set out a path that builds | :03:36. | :03:38. | |
on the strengths of our economy, that invests in the future, | :03:39. | :03:42. | |
but also puts a little bit aside, creates a little bit | :03:43. | :03:45. | |
of reserve firepower, just in case things do | :03:46. | :03:48. | |
So that the Government is there and able to step | :03:49. | :03:52. | |
We're joined now by Patrick Minford - of Economists for Brexit. | :03:53. | :04:05. | |
And shortly by the Conservative MP Nadhim Zahawi, and the Shadow Chief | :04:06. | :04:16. | |
Secretary to the Treasur, Rebecca Long Bailey, who is here. | :04:17. | :04:21. | |
You'll have to borrow around ?60 billion according to the OBR, you'd | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
think that number is wrong, what in your mind is the correct figure? It | :04:27. | :04:31. | |
is less because Brexit will cause higher and not lower growth because | :04:32. | :04:36. | |
of the policies of free-trade being pursued by the Government with | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
respect to the rest of the world and the EU. That is the big error in the | :04:42. | :04:48. | |
OBR's forecast, figure at the trade policy is wrong and have assumed | :04:49. | :04:51. | |
that trade policies and the effects of uncertainty, which has already | :04:52. | :04:57. | |
been disproved by the very strong reactions of GDP in the second and | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
third quarter of the year which came in strongly and well above the | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
Treasury's on forecasts. On the trade steals, you say in the | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
long-term, Deluxe set they could be right over the next five years | :05:13. | :05:15. | |
that's because of Brexit, there could be a case of borrowing ?60 | :05:16. | :05:21. | |
billion to compensate while we leave the EU and in the long term, you are | :05:22. | :05:26. | |
right and the money will be made up? Not really, they have assumed the | :05:27. | :05:32. | |
long-term effects of ex-expectations in the short term through investment | :05:33. | :05:35. | |
cost of spending falling, and that outcomes. Of that, they have put | :05:36. | :05:41. | |
this uncertainty effect for which there is no basis and having assumed | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
the exchange rate to drop instead of stimulating the economy, dump is | :05:48. | :05:49. | |
great in the economy, which is against what we know from modelling | :05:50. | :05:56. | |
practice and evidence. Linda Yueh, Dupree, have the OBR got it wrong? | :05:57. | :06:00. | |
They did not have much to work with because they did not have that much | :06:01. | :06:06. | |
from the Government in the first place -- do you agree. OBR forecasts | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
have been wrong in the past so could Patrick be right or is the OBR | :06:12. | :06:17. | |
right? I think the OBR forecast is in line with other forecasts, the | :06:18. | :06:21. | |
Bank of England, the International monetary fund is, they see a | :06:22. | :06:24. | |
negative hit from Brexit because of uncertainty. The difficulty of | :06:25. | :06:31. | |
assessing it is this, I treat uncertainty different than you. So | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
if you supported, let's not use Brexit, let's use kittens versus | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
poppies. He would be much more enthusiastic if you got your way but | :06:41. | :06:44. | |
businesses are cutting back on investment and they are worried | :06:45. | :06:48. | |
about the economic uncertainty so in that respect, I think the OBR has | :06:49. | :06:52. | |
set out almost a worst-case scenario about a permanent hit the growth | :06:53. | :06:57. | |
taking growth to just over 2% over the next 3-5 years. As they say, a | :06:58. | :07:01. | |
lot of the forecasts are wrong because it is hard to forecast | :07:02. | :07:05. | |
period when you do not know the Government's plans. And the | :07:06. | :07:09. | |
Government agrees, they say you might have to take them forecasts | :07:10. | :07:15. | |
broadly and they did not use the expression a pinch of salt but they | :07:16. | :07:18. | |
did say it could be the worst case scenario. Are you just upset as many | :07:19. | :07:23. | |
supporting Brexit are because you think the Bank of England as the OBR | :07:24. | :07:28. | |
are part of the Pro-remain establishment? Yes, I do and they | :07:29. | :07:33. | |
fought against Brexit and they are fighting for a soft Brexit. The | :07:34. | :07:37. | |
Chancellor is fighting for a soft Brexit and that tells you the | :07:38. | :07:44. | |
uncertainty is spurious. If we go for a soft Brexit, we will have the | :07:45. | :07:48. | |
status quo which leaves growth exactly where it would have been, | :07:49. | :07:53. | |
and a hard Brexit leads to free trade which is a good long-term | :07:54. | :07:58. | |
boost to the economy. As every schoolboy and first-year economics | :07:59. | :08:02. | |
student knows. Uncertainty is all positive here. Let's ask this | :08:03. | :08:06. | |
economics student here, I do not know if you are! Is a soft Brexit | :08:07. | :08:12. | |
gloom and doom and a hard Brexit on leases the UK economy and the | :08:13. | :08:16. | |
free-trade deals? I am an engineer, not an economist! My view is that of | :08:17. | :08:22. | |
the Chancellor and the Prime Minister, let's be prudent here. | :08:23. | :08:29. | |
Forecast. As the OBR right? No, they forecasts and you forecast a | :08:30. | :08:33. | |
worst-case scenario. They do not know what deal we will get and I | :08:34. | :08:35. | |
think the Prime Minister will negotiate a good deal and forecasts | :08:36. | :08:39. | |
will have to be adjusted. It is right for Phillip Hammond to be | :08:40. | :08:44. | |
prudent, which is why he is talking about a ?20 billion the structure | :08:45. | :08:53. | |
and productive fund. What about a 100 Dorien pound fund? We are being | :08:54. | :08:57. | |
prudent and running a deficit of 2% beyond 2020. I think that is what | :08:58. | :09:02. | |
business expects to hear, what boardrooms around the country expect | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
to hear, a chance for and Prime Minister that are realistic and will | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
do what is best for the country. -- Chancellor. The Autumn Statement was | :09:13. | :09:16. | |
to make sure we have a country that is fit for purpose, to deal with us | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
coming out of the EU and negotiate the best deal. We will see if the | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
country is that because one of the things that has been levelled | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
justifiably is what has happened is the prudent? There is nothing | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
prudent, you will borrow ?122 billion more, the deficit is still | :09:34. | :09:37. | |
there and will remain beyond 2020. There was a promise in the Tory | :09:38. | :09:45. | |
manifesto to deal the debt, which will now be ?2 trillion by 2020, | :09:46. | :09:48. | |
there is nothing prudent about what this Government is doing all the | :09:49. | :09:51. | |
Autumn Statement. The lending markets, Linda will talk about that, | :09:52. | :09:55. | |
will decide if he is being prudent, I think he is very prudent... What | :09:56. | :10:02. | |
is prudent about ?122 billion extra borrowing that George Osborne said | :10:03. | :10:06. | |
would not and should not happen? Maybe it is right to borrow this | :10:07. | :10:10. | |
amount, are you happy those are the figures and the debt will spiral to | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
nearly ?2 trillion? It is what you are borrowing to do the money... | :10:15. | :10:21. | |
Investing in infrastructure, assets for UK pillows -- assets for UK plc | :10:22. | :10:24. | |
is good and bringing down the deficit to 2% is the right thing to | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
do. I think the markets will look at that as a prudent decision by the | :10:30. | :10:33. | |
Chancellor and Prime Minister. The Labour to say we can borrow ?500 | :10:34. | :10:40. | |
billion, they need to explain that not only to the Houses of Parliament | :10:41. | :10:44. | |
and to the markets. How can you bring down the deficit to 2%? You | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
say you want to balance the books, how? If the debt is ?2 trillion and | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
Labour wins the election and you will add another ?500 billion in | :10:54. | :10:57. | |
infrastructure spending, how do you balance the books? It is interesting | :10:58. | :11:00. | |
you should mention the borrowing, the figures you have just shown that | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
the Government is about to run a cumulative deficit of 122 billion by | :11:05. | :11:12. | |
2021 and they have links that directly to Brexit. The rest is | :11:13. | :11:16. | |
attributable to mismanagement of the economy and the mood has not | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
invested in infrastructure to the levels we need, and skills and | :11:21. | :11:24. | |
education, the building blocks required to increase productivity. | :11:25. | :11:27. | |
How to ?500 billion helped to bring down the deficit and the debt? That | :11:28. | :11:32. | |
is the figure put forward by the CBI, think tanks such as the Policy | :11:33. | :11:36. | |
Exchange, as the number required to put us on a level footing with other | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
countries across the world. How does that help to bring down the debt? It | :11:42. | :11:45. | |
creates high skilled, highly paid jobs to return higher tax receipts | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
so the Treasury in the long term provides businesses with the | :11:50. | :11:53. | |
opportunity to grow their operations and diversify so that they again | :11:54. | :11:58. | |
campaign more in terms of taxes. That leads to increased public | :11:59. | :12:03. | |
spending figures. So you are trying to aim, Labour, with smaller money, | :12:04. | :12:08. | |
because you have admitted you should spend more on infrastructure and | :12:09. | :12:11. | |
grow the economy and you are catching up after George Osborne, | :12:12. | :12:15. | |
having choked on consumer demand to a certain expense is not paid down | :12:16. | :12:20. | |
the deficit. Now you are spending on infrastructure and it is a drop in | :12:21. | :12:24. | |
the ocean. George Osborne brought down... He has not eliminated it. By | :12:25. | :12:30. | |
two thirds. It allows us to be in a place where the country is fit for | :12:31. | :12:37. | |
purpose to invest in the programme of 23 billion in productivity. I | :12:38. | :12:40. | |
spent a year as the previous premise to's adviser on apprenticeships to | :12:41. | :12:45. | |
talk about the skills agenda. We have pioneered that, 3 million | :12:46. | :12:49. | |
apprenticeships by the start of this Parliament. 2.3 billion in the last | :12:50. | :12:54. | |
Parliament invested in apprenticeships including degree | :12:55. | :12:57. | |
apprenticeships. So the high skilled, high investment is coming | :12:58. | :13:00. | |
from a Conservative Government being prudent and the markets will reward | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
us for this prudence. Should the Conservative Party apologised to the | :13:06. | :13:08. | |
British public for failing to get rid of the deficit and for the | :13:09. | :13:11. | |
spiralling debt? I don't agree with you, I think the Chancellor has to | :13:12. | :13:16. | |
do what is necessary for the country, things have changed. We | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
have had a Brexit vote. Do you blame Brexit for this extra ?60 billion | :13:22. | :13:26. | |
that the OBR says the country has the borrow? No, is we have to act in | :13:27. | :13:33. | |
a way like any steward of any plc, make sure that the country is bit to | :13:34. | :13:37. | |
take on the challenges of the future. The current forecasts from | :13:38. | :13:41. | |
the OBR gives you the numbers you have rehearsed with Patrick Minford | :13:42. | :13:44. | |
but that could be wrong because the premise is fighting for a good deal. | :13:45. | :13:49. | |
Let's go back to Patrick, you have said this morning the OBR is wrong | :13:50. | :13:54. | |
to assume a spending slowdown, due to lower migration. But during the | :13:55. | :13:59. | |
referendum campaign, that was one of the centrepieces, lower migration. | :14:00. | :14:02. | |
One of the main arguments for Brexit. I had a discussion with you | :14:03. | :14:08. | |
about it as I recall and I pointed out on skilled migration caused | :14:09. | :14:11. | |
negative effects for our growth because it cost so much in terms of | :14:12. | :14:16. | |
welfare. That is really the focus of the referendum campaign. It was not | :14:17. | :14:20. | |
on skilled migration but migration of unskilled workers. But lower | :14:21. | :14:26. | |
migration numbers. Yes, but the point about the OBR's forecasts, if | :14:27. | :14:31. | |
they talk about constraining on skilled migration, that would have | :14:32. | :14:35. | |
given them a plus and not a minus. So the whole point is that there is | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
nothing wrong with the prudence of the Chancellor, what is wrong is the | :14:40. | :14:44. | |
negative tone he has taken over Brexit, where he is in charge of | :14:45. | :14:47. | |
policy with the Government and are committed to giving the best | :14:48. | :14:52. | |
policies. Free trade and so forth including controlling on skilled | :14:53. | :14:59. | |
migration which creates a negative. The turn that into a positive. What | :15:00. | :15:02. | |
the problem is, the tone of this Autumn Statement is totally negative | :15:03. | :15:05. | |
in the most crucial area which is Brexit policy. That is a real crime | :15:06. | :15:10. | |
by the Chancellor. So not just the OBR, in your mind. He did not have | :15:11. | :15:16. | |
to accept the OBR. They are the independent OBR and the Government's | :15:17. | :15:18. | |
independent armour. He could have said I am not -1 | :15:19. | :15:37. | |
Brexit, we will pursue the policies that will be good for this country. | :15:38. | :15:41. | |
He has confidence in that. Instead of which he said it is going to be | :15:42. | :15:48. | |
bad and I'm going to be prudent. Let's move on because there was | :15:49. | :15:50. | |
another area where many people feel it was negative, in terms of | :15:51. | :15:57. | |
people's prospects, and that is the JAMs, the term for people just about | :15:58. | :16:00. | |
managing. Theresa May said they would be a government for everyone | :16:01. | :16:03. | |
but let's have a look at some of the figures because the Resolution | :16:04. | :16:06. | |
foundation have looked at the effect of the Autumn Statement on a typical | :16:07. | :16:12. | |
family. Policies like free childcare are raising the tax threshold would | :16:13. | :16:16. | |
save those families ?190 a year, plus 190. | :16:17. | :16:24. | |
But they will lose ?1970 come as though a net loss of ?1780. There it | :16:25. | :16:33. | |
is, black and white. Those families will be worse off. They will be a | :16:34. | :16:37. | |
lot worse. Nothing about helping the people who are just managing. Well, | :16:38. | :16:43. | |
we have not looked at freezing fuel duties, many of those families will | :16:44. | :16:48. | |
save money. It is not going to make ?1780. But you can't select -- | :16:49. | :16:52. | |
selectively choose something and say that is the number when you have not | :16:53. | :16:56. | |
taken the whole of the Autumn Statement, including the freeze on | :16:57. | :17:03. | |
fuel duties, relief on council tax, affordable housing, all of these | :17:04. | :17:06. | |
things will make a difference. The net effect on those types of | :17:07. | :17:10. | |
families, those are the figures. They will be losing ?1780. You want | :17:11. | :17:16. | |
to put in your frozen fuel Judeo can take it down a little bit more come | :17:17. | :17:20. | |
but they are not being helped. Whichever way you cut it, Nadhim | :17:21. | :17:24. | |
Zahawi, they are losing. Over the past six years of you look at who | :17:25. | :17:28. | |
has shouldered the large burden in terms of both wage increase, so | :17:29. | :17:31. | |
those people have seen their wages go up, because of the national | :17:32. | :17:34. | |
living wage, which is going up in April against a ?7 50, worth | :17:35. | :17:38. | |
reminding of that, if you take the last six years, the wealthiest | :17:39. | :17:43. | |
people in our country has shouldered the largest burden of the belt | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
tightening we have had to take since the crash of 2008-9. That is the | :17:48. | :17:52. | |
difference. You are looking at a single year and saying the numbers | :17:53. | :17:56. | |
look like they are not doing... But the Chancellor has tried to help | :17:57. | :18:00. | |
because of the move on universal benefits, universal credit, that is | :18:01. | :18:04. | |
actually helped. A little bit. The move on universal credit will soften | :18:05. | :18:08. | |
the blow, it is no way going to reverse the cuts. I must come to | :18:09. | :18:14. | |
Rebecca. People who have shouldered the greatest responsibility to get | :18:15. | :18:19. | |
the economy back on its feet are the wealthiest in our country, any | :18:20. | :18:22. | |
economist will tell you that. So now you are going to hit the one to | :18:23. | :18:25. | |
answer well. The figures speak for themselves. Rebecca, when with | :18:26. | :18:31. | |
Labour eradicated episode? We would have taken very different decisions | :18:32. | :18:35. | |
to this government. We certainly would not have made cuts to the most | :18:36. | :18:41. | |
wealthiest in society's taxes, in terms of inheritance tax, capital | :18:42. | :18:46. | |
gains tax. We would have invested in our economy. So when would you have | :18:47. | :18:51. | |
eradicated the deficit? We have a fiscal credibility rule that has | :18:52. | :18:56. | |
been put together by world leading economists, and over five years we | :18:57. | :19:03. | |
would separate topic spinning and capital spending. The rolling | :19:04. | :19:05. | |
deficit-reduction plans, so when would it be react -- eradicated? | :19:06. | :19:11. | |
Within a period of five years, by the end of the next parliament after | :19:12. | :19:17. | |
we had taken over, yes. So 2025? Guess, unless there were situations | :19:18. | :19:21. | |
through the world economically, extremely adverse conditions. Do you | :19:22. | :19:27. | |
agree on having an overall cap on welfare spending? I think the cap | :19:28. | :19:30. | |
that the government has so far is not productive at all. I don't think | :19:31. | :19:35. | |
the decisions the government have been made have been morally correct. | :19:36. | :19:39. | |
Would there be a cat, with Labour would you cap the overall spend on | :19:40. | :19:44. | |
welfare? We are against the welfare cap generally that we would have the | :19:45. | :19:47. | |
USS welfare spend because you wanted to be there for everybody, to make | :19:48. | :19:50. | |
sure everybody pays their fair share, but equally want to make sure | :19:51. | :19:54. | |
people have enough to live on. So sounds like you are not in favour of | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
having a cap. At the same time he would make sure you had a housing | :19:59. | :20:02. | |
system where rents went sky high and people could afford to live, where | :20:03. | :20:05. | |
people could afford to buy their own homes. Everyone would agree with | :20:06. | :20:10. | |
that, at some stage you might be asked to put a cap on spending full | :20:11. | :20:15. | |
stop Linda Yueh, back on the Brexit point, you think Patrick Minford, | :20:16. | :20:21. | |
his argument, the reason he is so annoyed, is based also the fact that | :20:22. | :20:25. | |
the pro-Remain camp -- pro Remain camp argued so this firstly that | :20:26. | :20:30. | |
there would be an immediate recession, and immediate crash in | :20:31. | :20:35. | |
terms of economic perspective it hasn't happened? Yes, and I think | :20:36. | :20:38. | |
that is probably when the Remain camp oversold how confident they | :20:39. | :20:42. | |
could be about economic forecasts and assessments. But I think it | :20:43. | :20:45. | |
doesn't change the longer term point, which is it is going to be | :20:46. | :20:48. | |
years before we know what our relationship with the rest of the | :20:49. | :20:52. | |
world is, and our growth depends a great deal on getting into other | :20:53. | :20:57. | |
markets. So we use the term free trade a lot but free trade is not | :20:58. | :21:00. | |
free full stop you cannot get into a market unless you have an agreement | :21:01. | :21:03. | |
open at market, and that is why most economists would say we have now | :21:04. | :21:07. | |
entered a period of economic uncertainty and it is going to be | :21:08. | :21:10. | |
harder to get us back to where we are. But that's not the same thing | :21:11. | :21:14. | |
as saying obviously that immediately we will lose half a million jobs, | :21:15. | :21:18. | |
which I always thought was, you can't be too confident in any of | :21:19. | :21:23. | |
these economic assessments. CHUCKLING | :21:24. | :21:25. | |
All right, Patrick Minford, I will have to say goodbye to you and | :21:26. | :21:29. | |
Nadhim Zahawi and Rebecca Long Bailey, thank you all of you. | :21:30. | :21:36. | |
What was Nigel Farage photographed with last night | :21:37. | :21:41. | |
Was it - a) Donald Trump's daughter, Ivanka? | :21:42. | :21:44. | |
Or d) A recently acquired American passport? | :21:45. | :21:49. | |
At the end of the show, Linda will give us | :21:50. | :21:53. | |
Now the something altogether different and a lot more serious. | :21:54. | :21:59. | |
Yesterday, Thomas Mair was convicted of the brutal murder | :22:00. | :22:01. | |
He was given a whole life sentence for his crime. | :22:02. | :22:06. | |
Only a Home Secretary can agree to his release from prison, | :22:07. | :22:09. | |
because of the "exceptional seriousness" of the crime. | :22:10. | :22:11. | |
The judge said that he was inspired by admiration for Nazis | :22:12. | :22:13. | |
and similar anti-democratic white supremacist creeds. | :22:14. | :22:15. | |
The Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, was asked | :22:16. | :22:17. | |
about Thomas Mair's conviction this morning. | :22:18. | :22:23. | |
I think all of us - and it isn't just politicians, | :22:24. | :22:26. | |
it's the whole of society now - have to look at how | :22:27. | :22:28. | |
Yes, some of the violent nature of our politics at the moment. | :22:29. | :22:38. | |
Jo's was a terrible extreme example, but if you look at the abuse that | :22:39. | :22:46. | |
some people have suffered - in the past, we've had it, | :22:47. | :22:49. | |
Not just against migrants, but we've had hate crime rise | :22:50. | :22:54. | |
And so I think what we have to be careful about in all walks | :22:55. | :22:59. | |
of life now is to see how we can unite people. | :23:00. | :23:02. | |
And even on this Brexit vote, you know, it's divided society, | :23:03. | :23:04. | |
We're joined now by the Labour MP and chair of the Home | :23:05. | :23:11. | |
Affairs Select Committee, Yvette Cooper. | :23:12. | :23:14. | |
Welcome to the Daily Politics. Would you describe the murder of Jo Cox as | :23:15. | :23:23. | |
a terrorist incident? Guess, I think so. It was a political assassination | :23:24. | :23:28. | |
and as much a terrorist act as other kinds of either far right extremism | :23:29. | :23:31. | |
or Islamist extremism, and we should face that is what it was. Jo Cox was | :23:32. | :23:36. | |
murdered because of her views, because of what she believed in and | :23:37. | :23:40. | |
it was a deliberate attempt to pursue a political agenda. Now | :23:41. | :23:46. | |
actually I think, as Jo's husband Brendan Cox said yesterday, it is | :23:47. | :23:50. | |
also an attack that failed in its terrorist objectives, because what | :23:51. | :23:54. | |
it led to was the huge outpouring across West Yorkshire and across the | :23:55. | :23:58. | |
country of support not just for Jo and her family but for a lot of the | :23:59. | :24:02. | |
ideas that she stood for as well. Right, so you dismiss the idea that | :24:03. | :24:06. | |
he was in some way a lone wolf? I mean he was a loan move, that | :24:07. | :24:11. | |
inspired by the ideology you have outlined -- he was a lone wolf. Do | :24:12. | :24:15. | |
you think at the time some politicians and campaigners were | :24:16. | :24:22. | |
accused of trying to politicise Jo's murder? We were right in the middle | :24:23. | :24:25. | |
of that frenetic campaign. Do you think somehow there was hate whipped | :24:26. | :24:31. | |
up by the EU referendum campaign? I think you have two separate out the | :24:32. | :24:34. | |
referendum itself, and the way in which people behave around it, | :24:35. | :24:38. | |
because it has to be legitimate to have referenda, to have proper | :24:39. | :24:43. | |
public debates and arguments about things in a democracy. That is what | :24:44. | :24:47. | |
the Moxey is all about. What I think Thomas Mair added, though, was an | :24:48. | :24:53. | |
assault on democracy, an attack on obviously a democratically elected | :24:54. | :24:56. | |
member of Parliament but it was an assault on democracy, not an | :24:57. | :25:00. | |
expression of democracy, which is what the referendum was all about. | :25:01. | :25:03. | |
We have been looking at issues around hate crime in Taiwan, and | :25:04. | :25:11. | |
some of the escalation of hate crime, and reports of hate crime in | :25:12. | :25:14. | |
the run-up to and immediately after the referendum and concerns people | :25:15. | :25:19. | |
have raised about the way in which some people were whipping up hatred | :25:20. | :25:22. | |
is part of the campaign. That is separate, I think, from the fact of | :25:23. | :25:27. | |
having a referendum itself. OK, because you talked about the day | :25:28. | :25:31. | |
afterwards on the today programme, the day after Jo Cox was murdered | :25:32. | :25:36. | |
about the vitriol in the campaign and the nasty this, but do you think | :25:37. | :25:42. | |
that is the sort of thing that led someone like Thomas Mair to carry | :25:43. | :25:45. | |
out something they had perhaps been thinking about for a long time? It | :25:46. | :25:49. | |
was clear with Thomas Mair that he had been investigating far right | :25:50. | :25:54. | |
extremist websites, white supremacists, neo-Nazi, really vile | :25:55. | :25:59. | |
ideology for a very long time. One of the groups that gave evidence to | :26:00. | :26:05. | |
our select committee said, hope not hate, they said it was not that | :26:06. | :26:10. | |
these sorts of political events increased the number of people who | :26:11. | :26:14. | |
expressed hatred, but that those who were already may be extreme racists | :26:15. | :26:24. | |
all advocates of violence somehow became involved in, and there is a | :26:25. | :26:27. | |
difference between those two, but it shows we have to be vigilant and | :26:28. | :26:31. | |
stand up for that. Do you think politicians have not been vigilant | :26:32. | :26:35. | |
enough, because there has been a lot of talk and coverage about the risks | :26:36. | :26:38. | |
of Islamic terrorism and ideology poisoning the minds of young | :26:39. | :26:46. | |
Muslims, but has the threat been completely underestimated? | :26:47. | :26:49. | |
Interestingly, this is the third violent attack in recent years, | :26:50. | :26:53. | |
because there was the attack in North Wales, an attempt to behead | :26:54. | :26:59. | |
someone by a far right extremist, and also the murder of Mohammed | :27:00. | :27:03. | |
Salim, who was murdered simply for being Muslim, again by a far right | :27:04. | :27:07. | |
extremist. So I think we have to take these attacks extremely | :27:08. | :27:10. | |
seriously, and it is right that the police should do so as part of | :27:11. | :27:14. | |
preventing extremism as well. Of course, these are crimes, which | :27:15. | :27:18. | |
would be tried and prosecuted anyway, but in terms of the spread | :27:19. | :27:21. | |
of an ideology driving those sorts of crimes, has that been | :27:22. | :27:25. | |
underestimated? Some of the figures from Prevent, the government's | :27:26. | :27:29. | |
counter radicalisation strategy, are saying that in certain parts of the | :27:30. | :27:32. | |
country that actually the rise, there has been a significant | :27:33. | :27:38. | |
increase in far right extremist either attacks were protests, and | :27:39. | :27:43. | |
they are growing. Nationwide they still say Islamic terrorism is the | :27:44. | :27:47. | |
bigger problem but perhaps this has been overlooked. And it is in | :27:48. | :27:52. | |
particular areas as well. Small, very nasty groups of neo-Nazi | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
organisations as well. And small organisations in different parts of | :27:58. | :28:01. | |
the country that I'd have different focuses. I think the police need to | :28:02. | :28:07. | |
take it very seriously. But there is also a wider responsibility on all | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
of us not to take democracy for granted and to promote the sort of | :28:12. | :28:15. | |
values that I suppose actually Jo Cox stood for, the more in common | :28:16. | :28:21. | |
campaign that Jo's family have setup is to tackle that kind of hatred at | :28:22. | :28:25. | |
its source before it can escalate and spread. Is there a danger of | :28:26. | :28:34. | |
linking populist right-wing ideologies with far right extremist? | :28:35. | :28:39. | |
So you could look at the alt right in the strip -- in the States. They | :28:40. | :28:44. | |
seem to be feeling more comfortable with Donald Trump was not associated | :28:45. | :28:49. | |
with them in anyway. Do you have to be careful not to link the two? I | :28:50. | :28:54. | |
think all politicians, and that includes the President elect of the | :28:55. | :28:57. | |
United States, have to be really careful not to give licence to these | :28:58. | :29:03. | |
far right extremists, white supremacists, bile organisations. | :29:04. | :29:07. | |
And I think that is the risk. You are right, we should not just merge | :29:08. | :29:12. | |
things were mediocre about it, but equally that means in every | :29:13. | :29:18. | |
organisation for Donald Trump right now, but similarly for politicians | :29:19. | :29:21. | |
right here, they have to be very careful not to whip up hatred and | :29:22. | :29:25. | |
give licence to it. Does that include the accusations of just | :29:26. | :29:28. | |
dismissing or ignoring the claims of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party? I | :29:29. | :29:33. | |
have always said we should do much more to deal with anti-Semitism in | :29:34. | :29:36. | |
the Labour Party and across the country. So when John McDonald talks | :29:37. | :29:40. | |
about unity and trying to bring people together, does he and do | :29:41. | :29:46. | |
Jeremy Corbyn have to do more? -- John McDonnell. Ulverston. That is | :29:47. | :29:52. | |
why I have said whether it is in the Labour Party or other political | :29:53. | :29:55. | |
parties across the country, we also have to do more -- wall of us do. We | :29:56. | :30:01. | |
also have to do more to challenge online hatred because that can go | :30:02. | :30:03. | |
into something much worse as well. Thank you. | :30:04. | :30:08. | |
On Tuesday, Donald Trump confirmed that he will be abandoning | :30:09. | :30:10. | |
something called TPP, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. | :30:11. | :30:12. | |
It's a trade deal with other countries in the Pacific region, | :30:13. | :30:14. | |
but while TTP's about trade, it was also about challenging | :30:15. | :30:17. | |
So what does abandoning it mean for the balance of power in | :30:18. | :30:21. | |
If Donald Trump's victory was an anti-globalisation vote, | :30:22. | :30:29. | |
then his pledge to scrap big trade deals was the rallying call. | :30:30. | :30:37. | |
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is another disaster, | :30:38. | :30:38. | |
done and pushed by special interests, who want | :30:39. | :30:42. | |
Just a continuing rape of our country. | :30:43. | :30:46. | |
On Tuesday, President-elect Trump made good on that promise, | :30:47. | :30:55. | |
in a YouTube video setting out his plans for his first | :30:56. | :30:58. | |
I am going to issue our notification of intent to withdraw | :30:59. | :31:02. | |
from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a potential disaster | :31:03. | :31:03. | |
Instead, we will negotiate fair, bilateral trade deals that bring | :31:04. | :31:09. | |
jobs and industry back onto American shores. | :31:10. | :31:15. | |
The partnership was supposed to unite 12 countries and 40% | :31:16. | :31:19. | |
of the world economy, in a giant single market, | :31:20. | :31:21. | |
Known as TPP for short, to its fans, it spelled prosperity | :31:22. | :31:29. | |
and an increase in living standards across the globe. | :31:30. | :31:34. | |
To critics, it could cost jobs and was too helpful to corporations. | :31:35. | :31:37. | |
China is now pushing its own rival partnership programme, | :31:38. | :31:39. | |
This week, the Chinese Premier was selling the idea in South America. | :31:40. | :31:46. | |
There's no better illustration of China's expansionary instincts | :31:47. | :31:51. | |
than the artificial islands it's building in the Pacific, | :31:52. | :31:55. | |
potentially for use as military bases. | :31:56. | :31:59. | |
President Obama was already committed to expanding the US | :32:00. | :32:03. | |
presence in the Pacific, with plans for 60% of the American Navy to be | :32:04. | :32:06. | |
The Trans-Pacific Partnership was partly designed as a way | :32:07. | :32:15. | |
of countering their economic and military might. | :32:16. | :32:22. | |
With that trade deal dead in the water, how | :32:23. | :32:24. | |
will Trump's America stand up to them now? | :32:25. | :32:26. | |
We're joined now by Leslie Vinajamuri, from Foreign Affairs | :32:27. | :32:29. | |
think tank Chatham House, and the economist Linda Yueh | :32:30. | :32:31. | |
Leslie, how important was the Trans-Pacific Partnership to Obama's | :32:32. | :32:41. | |
China strategy? It was absolutely central, a central piece of the US | :32:42. | :32:45. | |
pivot to Asia and it was seen as a way of containing the rise of China | :32:46. | :32:51. | |
and securing America's role in the region and integrating the Asian | :32:52. | :32:54. | |
economies through trade. It was central, so this is a big lose for | :32:55. | :33:00. | |
the Obama administration. A big ruse for the Obama administration, is it | :33:01. | :33:04. | |
a big clues for America? I think it is, in many ways, America's standing | :33:05. | :33:10. | |
in the world is not just about trade but influence in all parts of the | :33:11. | :33:14. | |
world and that is what the Obama administration was trying to cement | :33:15. | :33:17. | |
and move away from the Middle East and towards Asia which is faster | :33:18. | :33:21. | |
growing. So the fact that President-elect Trump is going to | :33:22. | :33:27. | |
turn them inward, he will concede ground to China in terms of global | :33:28. | :33:32. | |
influence. And President Obama knows how hard it is to save TPP, there | :33:33. | :33:36. | |
were three things he wanted to save with Donald Trump in the first | :33:37. | :33:41. | |
meeting, the Iran deal, climate change and Obamacare, trade did not | :33:42. | :33:44. | |
make it onto the list, which shows you how much of his legacy is at | :33:45. | :33:48. | |
risk. He was facing towards the Pacific and many felt he had | :33:49. | :33:51. | |
abandoned the Middle East and the conflicts that because he was going | :33:52. | :33:56. | |
to face it differently in his administration. Can it survive | :33:57. | :34:00. | |
without the US, the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Is there any point to | :34:01. | :34:05. | |
it? No, and it is interesting, it is very unlikely and China has put its | :34:06. | :34:11. | |
own deal on the table for a regional and comprehensive and economic | :34:12. | :34:13. | |
strategy. There will now be an opening for China to act as a leader | :34:14. | :34:18. | |
in the region and to unite trade and economic claims more generally. What | :34:19. | :34:23. | |
about militarily, will there be an opportunity, will the Chinese take | :34:24. | :34:27. | |
the opportunity in terms of trying to at least flex their muscles | :34:28. | :34:31. | |
militarily now they see there is an opening? Yes, China has been more | :34:32. | :34:35. | |
assertive in the South China Seas and the big unknown is that Trump is | :34:36. | :34:42. | |
unknown and his people still. It is whether they tried to pursue a more | :34:43. | :34:48. | |
aggressive and assertive policy strategy of containment through | :34:49. | :34:50. | |
military build-up in the region, or whether there is a complete | :34:51. | :34:54. | |
withdrawal, which seems unlikely. But the rhetoric has been all over | :34:55. | :34:58. | |
the map and it is difficult to predict, very uncertain. What does | :34:59. | :35:04. | |
Donald Trump do if he wants to constrain growing Chinese power? Is | :35:05. | :35:07. | |
he just going to use soft power to do that? I think the fear is he | :35:08. | :35:12. | |
might go harder. And what you don't want is a renewal of military | :35:13. | :35:16. | |
tensions above all else. So one of the worrying thing is about Trump is | :35:17. | :35:21. | |
we know he is closer to regimes such as Russia than his predecessors and | :35:22. | :35:25. | |
that raises the prospect is that you have a very different view of how | :35:26. | :35:30. | |
you integrate the world. Is it about positioning yourself for influence | :35:31. | :35:39. | |
or about integrating and linking and we don't know enough about | :35:40. | :35:41. | |
President-elect Trump to know which way he will go? Looking inward, I am | :35:42. | :35:44. | |
sure it will not be helpful for the accommodate in America which he | :35:45. | :35:47. | |
wants to double the growth rate of, America needs to be part of the girl | :35:48. | :35:51. | |
-- global system. If China sets the terms of trade, that does not help | :35:52. | :35:57. | |
America. Thinking in the UK, one of the things Trump is worried about is | :35:58. | :36:02. | |
the negative impact on American wages of dealing with American -- | :36:03. | :36:05. | |
developing countries and that is less of a case with developed | :36:06. | :36:09. | |
countries. He has already said Britain will not be at the back of | :36:10. | :36:14. | |
the queue. We would be comparable. Is this the end of the multilateral | :36:15. | :36:21. | |
trade deals? If Trump on pics or at least ratifies these multilateral | :36:22. | :36:26. | |
trade deals, it will be about bilateral trade deals? It was | :36:27. | :36:32. | |
already moving that way in terms of bilateral, multilateral is the World | :36:33. | :36:34. | |
Trade Organisation doing another massive round. People would argue | :36:35. | :36:41. | |
they don't always achieve that much. No, and probably the difficult of | :36:42. | :36:44. | |
multilateral ones now is that trade is so much more complicated and is | :36:45. | :36:48. | |
about investment and services. Even though economists would like to see | :36:49. | :36:52. | |
a big multilateral trade deal, it takes two long and so now they will | :36:53. | :36:55. | |
be more specific about what is negotiated like services. And China | :36:56. | :37:03. | |
is interesting because they initiated the Asia infrastructure | :37:04. | :37:05. | |
investment bank which the United States did not join, the UK did. It | :37:06. | :37:11. | |
is another effort to think regionally and collaboratively and | :37:12. | :37:15. | |
to displace the US leadership and power and standards and norms, which | :37:16. | :37:19. | |
is a grave threat to the US leadership role in the world. As | :37:20. | :37:24. | |
Linda said, if the soft power is going to be put to one side on the | :37:25. | :37:29. | |
trade deal, one will look at some of the military signs and Trump has | :37:30. | :37:34. | |
said he wants to expand the US Navy, and build up the number of ships, | :37:35. | :37:39. | |
what is the significance of that? I think the concern is that if you | :37:40. | :37:44. | |
pursue a strategy that focuses on hard power without integrating trade | :37:45. | :37:48. | |
and soft power and diplomacy to the centre, it sets you up to have a | :37:49. | :37:51. | |
more contentious relationship with the region. And as we know in the | :37:52. | :37:57. | |
campaign, the commitment to the US commitment to Japan and Korea was | :37:58. | :38:01. | |
not on the table firmly so even with the military build-up, there is a | :38:02. | :38:05. | |
lot of uncertainty about what that means for America's one standing | :38:06. | :38:09. | |
allies. Some of these countries already jumping at the chance of a | :38:10. | :38:13. | |
bilateral, Chile for example, they see it as an opportunity as well? | :38:14. | :38:19. | |
Yes, and the route which hosted the summit were China, they immediately | :38:20. | :38:23. | |
asked to sign up to a Chinese lead free trade area -- and the roof. | :38:24. | :38:27. | |
Thank you very much. Now, in less than a fortnight, | :38:28. | :38:33. | |
the Supreme Court will be hearing the most important case | :38:34. | :38:36. | |
in a generation. At stake, whether the Government | :38:37. | :38:37. | |
alone can decide to trigger the process of our exit | :38:38. | :38:40. | |
from the European Union, or whether Parliament needs | :38:41. | :38:42. | |
to approve the process first. Earlier this month, three High Court | :38:43. | :38:45. | |
judges sided with campaigners, telling the Government that it | :38:46. | :38:48. | |
would have to get the approval of Parliament before | :38:49. | :38:51. | |
triggering Article 50. Theresa May wants to trigger Article | :38:52. | :38:52. | |
50, starting the UK's divorce negotiations | :38:53. | :38:55. | |
with the European Union, Talks are supposed to last two | :38:56. | :38:56. | |
years, so that would mean the UK So the Government has appealed | :38:57. | :39:06. | |
to the Supreme Court and, next month, 11 judges | :39:07. | :39:16. | |
there will have to decide whether to uphold or overturn | :39:17. | :39:18. | |
the High Court Ruling. Last week, the Court also decided | :39:19. | :39:27. | |
that the senior law officers from Scotland and Wales will be | :39:28. | :39:31. | |
allowed to address the Court At stake is whether triggering | :39:32. | :39:33. | |
Article 50 leads inevitably to the repeal of the 1972 | :39:34. | :39:37. | |
European Communities Act. Normally, only MPs and peers | :39:38. | :39:41. | |
have the power to repeal The Government is planning | :39:42. | :39:44. | |
to introduce what they are calling "The Great Repeal Bill" | :39:45. | :39:54. | |
in the spring, but that faces the prospect of months of debates, | :39:55. | :39:56. | |
amendments and votes in the Commons and the Lords, | :39:57. | :40:00. | |
so approval for that could be We're joined now from Cambridge | :40:01. | :40:03. | |
by Professor Christopher Forsyth, who is a professor of Public Law | :40:04. | :40:07. | |
at Cambridge University, and the SNP MP Joanna Cherry, | :40:08. | :40:10. | |
who is on the Brexit Select Welcome to both of you. Christopher, | :40:11. | :40:24. | |
does the triggering of Article 50 ultimately leads to the repeal of | :40:25. | :40:34. | |
the 1972 act? No, it does not. It may read irrevocably to our | :40:35. | :40:39. | |
departure from the EU but it does not do anything about repealing the | :40:40. | :40:45. | |
EU act. Can you look into the camera? Perfect. Why do you say | :40:46. | :40:50. | |
that? That was the position of the Government lawyers, as well as the | :40:51. | :40:53. | |
person who brought the case, Gina Malone. We may be talking about a | :40:54. | :40:59. | |
technical difference here. We could cease to be members of the EU and | :41:00. | :41:03. | |
the treaties would no longer apply, but unless Parliament legislated to | :41:04. | :41:09. | |
remove the 1972 act from the statute book, it would remain on the statute | :41:10. | :41:13. | |
book. That is the sense in which it is not being repealed and we would | :41:14. | :41:17. | |
cease to be members of the EU. The point being made is that we would | :41:18. | :41:21. | |
lose rights, we would lose rights that would be lost for ever and that | :41:22. | :41:26. | |
cannot happen unless Parliament, both the Commons and the Lords, have | :41:27. | :41:31. | |
a say in those rights being repealed or lost. That is absolutely right. | :41:32. | :41:36. | |
But it is from a slightly different principle. The prerogative should | :41:37. | :41:42. | |
not be used to frustrate Parliamentary legislation. And that | :41:43. | :41:46. | |
is what would be happening, so the argument for the claimants goes, in | :41:47. | :41:51. | |
the current case. That is what would be happening if we cease to be | :41:52. | :41:56. | |
members of the EU, it would effectively amounts to the repeal of | :41:57. | :42:01. | |
the act. In your view, once Article 50 is triggered, it is it | :42:02. | :42:06. | |
reversible? Well, the High Court found it was irrevocable and the | :42:07. | :42:10. | |
Government lawyers conceded that in the High Court. As a matter of law, | :42:11. | :42:13. | |
it is open to the Government lawyers to withdraw their concession to the | :42:14. | :42:17. | |
Supreme Court and it may be difficult for them to do so. It | :42:18. | :42:20. | |
would involve political difficulties for the Government because of | :42:21. | :42:25. | |
Article 50 triggering which is not remarkable and Brexiter does not | :42:26. | :42:28. | |
mean Brexit. And Parliament does not have to give its approval? | :42:29. | :42:35. | |
Ultimately, the question of whether Article 50 is irrevocable is a | :42:36. | :42:38. | |
matter for the European Court of Justice and it would be rather | :42:39. | :42:40. | |
embarrassing for the British Government giving it stands and | :42:41. | :42:47. | |
reluctance to exist -- to accept the justice and Luxembourg, to refer the | :42:48. | :42:52. | |
question of Article 50 to Luxembourg. You have tried to | :42:53. | :42:56. | |
compare it to the Brexit vote. The Brexit vote was a referendum, it was | :42:57. | :43:02. | |
one... I have not compared to the vote, this is illegal and is not | :43:03. | :43:07. | |
political matter. You have tried to say Brexit would not mean Brexit. | :43:08. | :43:13. | |
Let me just explained. So that people understand. One is a | :43:14. | :43:18. | |
political answer to a question. That can be interpreted in whatever way, | :43:19. | :43:23. | |
but everyone is broadly agreed. Actually, people said they wanted to | :43:24. | :43:28. | |
leave the EU. Even if they say... It was a UK referendum. Indeed, but I | :43:29. | :43:33. | |
am here as a Scottish MP and I want to talk about the fact that 62% of | :43:34. | :43:39. | |
Scots voted to remain. It was not a devolved issue. 72% in my | :43:40. | :43:44. | |
constituency. The EU is written into the Scotland Act which founded the | :43:45. | :43:50. | |
Scotland Parliament and European law affects citizens in Scotland and | :43:51. | :43:55. | |
indeed businesses. And so there is a very strong argument that triggering | :43:56. | :43:58. | |
Article 50 will affect the rights of individuals in Scotland, this is | :43:59. | :44:03. | |
where Scotland comes in. Let's put that to Christopher, do you agree on | :44:04. | :44:09. | |
that? I agree that the question of whether the Article 50 notice can be | :44:10. | :44:13. | |
revoked is an important question. And there is a respectable case for | :44:14. | :44:17. | |
suggesting that it could be revoked, based upon a technical argument to | :44:18. | :44:21. | |
do with the Vienna Law of treaties. But if the UK could revoke the | :44:22. | :44:27. | |
notice once it is given, it would completely transform the position | :44:28. | :44:30. | |
because it would mean if we did not like the deal we got at the end of | :44:31. | :44:34. | |
the process, we could walk away from it by revoking our notice. And of | :44:35. | :44:38. | |
course, it would completely undermine the argument that the | :44:39. | :44:43. | |
triggering of the notice removes rights. Of course, as Joanna has | :44:44. | :44:52. | |
just remarked, that would cause difficulties for the Government | :44:53. | :44:57. | |
because it is ultimately a question of EU law and would require | :44:58. | :45:02. | |
reference to the EU Court, meaning delays of up to two years and you | :45:03. | :45:07. | |
could imagine the political consequences of a EU court denying | :45:08. | :45:13. | |
us Brexit! On that basis, do you think the Government lawyers have | :45:14. | :45:15. | |
employed the wrong arguments by making their case here? | :45:16. | :45:22. | |
I think that is perhaps so, I think it was for political reasons they | :45:23. | :45:29. | |
conceded the point about revocable at it, but the other grounds they | :45:30. | :45:33. | |
conceded that they shouldn't have. The one that strikes you most | :45:34. | :45:40. | |
obviously is the status of the 2015 referendum act, the act under which | :45:41. | :45:45. | |
the referendum took place was that that is the act which forms the | :45:46. | :45:49. | |
foundation of the proposition that the outcome of the referendum is | :45:50. | :45:54. | |
only advisory. Now I'm not sure that that's absolutely right, because it | :45:55. | :46:00. | |
seems to me that you can argue that by the 2015 act, Parliament | :46:01. | :46:04. | |
delegated to the people the right to decide this question, and the people | :46:05. | :46:09. | |
have decided it. Right, then if following on from that, do you think | :46:10. | :46:14. | |
this is an example, Christopher Forsyth, of a broader trend of | :46:15. | :46:19. | |
judicial activism? Now, I certainly don't think that. The judgment of | :46:20. | :46:25. | |
the court below is commendably orthodox, it upholds the supremacy | :46:26. | :46:32. | |
and constitutional law in an understandable way. It is arguable | :46:33. | :46:36. | |
that some of those principles have been randomly applied, and this is | :46:37. | :46:42. | |
by the government may be successful on appeal, but it is a commendably | :46:43. | :46:46. | |
orthodox judgment and there is nothing wrong with... I'd deprecate | :46:47. | :46:51. | |
the attacks on the judges made as a result. Let me come back to you on | :46:52. | :46:58. | |
the idea of Scotland getting a separate deal, Joanna Cherry, do you | :46:59. | :47:02. | |
think that is paid in the water now, there is no indication from the EU | :47:03. | :47:07. | |
that could happen? Scotland getting a separate deal is ultimately a | :47:08. | :47:10. | |
matter to discuss between the Scottish and the British government | :47:11. | :47:12. | |
in the first instance, and then the UK Government would go to the EU to | :47:13. | :47:16. | |
say this is the deal we want, and I don't think it is dead in the water | :47:17. | :47:20. | |
and the Scottish Government will shortly be coming forward with their | :47:21. | :47:24. | |
detailed proposals. But it is all about the right of Scottish voters | :47:25. | :47:27. | |
through the Scottish Parliament to be consulted, and this is why the | :47:28. | :47:31. | |
Lord Advocate James Weir off QC has sought to intervene on behalf of the | :47:32. | :47:35. | |
Scottish Government and the Supreme Court have allowed him to make | :47:36. | :47:41. | |
submissions about points arising from Scottish constitutional law, | :47:42. | :47:43. | |
which may be relevant to the case. Of course in the high case, -- in | :47:44. | :47:48. | |
the High Court was no proper argument, and the High Court made | :47:49. | :47:52. | |
the assumption that the constitutional them in Wales and | :47:53. | :47:54. | |
Scotland is the same, which we would argue is not the case. Thank you | :47:55. | :47:56. | |
very much, Joanna Cherry. The government has been heavily | :47:57. | :48:00. | |
criticised for its lack of planning for a vote to leave | :48:01. | :48:02. | |
the European Union, and Bernard Jenkin, the Chair | :48:03. | :48:05. | |
of Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs | :48:06. | :48:07. | |
Committee, has laid the blame on civil servants, who he says | :48:08. | :48:09. | |
"are not emotionally Here he is speaking | :48:10. | :48:11. | |
in a Westminster Hall A lot of the civil service | :48:12. | :48:14. | |
is struggling to catch up with the absence of preparation | :48:15. | :48:20. | |
for the outcome of the referendum, which I think is one of the lessons | :48:21. | :48:24. | |
we must take from this referendum. It is unforgivable for a government | :48:25. | :48:28. | |
to call a referendum and remain completely unprepared for one | :48:29. | :48:31. | |
of the possible eventualities. And therefore, there are a lot | :48:32. | :48:36. | |
of officials who are rapidly trying to get their brains around - | :48:37. | :48:41. | |
perhaps in a scenario that they're not emotionally attracted to anyway | :48:42. | :48:43. | |
- some very, very difficult and complicated questions, | :48:44. | :48:46. | |
and it's taking some time. And I'm joined now by Bernard | :48:47. | :48:51. | |
Jenkin, and the Liberal Democrat MP So you're blaming the civil service | :48:52. | :49:04. | |
for everything and they are not emotionally attracted to Brexit, why | :49:05. | :49:08. | |
do you have to be? Of course civil servants are impartial and are not | :49:09. | :49:14. | |
blaming civil servants. You are. You're putting words in my mouth. I | :49:15. | :49:19. | |
thought I was being rather tactful. Even by your standards. The problem | :49:20. | :49:23. | |
was it was the Prime Minister of the day that forbade civil servants to | :49:24. | :49:27. | |
make any preparations for a leave vote, and I am not admiring of the | :49:28. | :49:33. | |
Cabinet Secretary who in fact kind of illicitly good and awayday with | :49:34. | :49:36. | |
the permanent secretaries during the final weeks of the referendum | :49:37. | :49:40. | |
campaign when nobody was looking in order to say if there is a leave | :49:41. | :49:44. | |
vote what should we actually do? I am very pleased we have an impartial | :49:45. | :49:48. | |
civil service that does not do what ministers and others want them to do | :49:49. | :49:51. | |
if they think it is in the interest of the nation. You can't have it | :49:52. | :49:54. | |
both ways, but you still haven't been what does it mean not | :49:55. | :49:59. | |
emotionally attracted? I should imagine quite a lot more civil | :50:00. | :50:04. | |
servants voted remain as opposed to leave, the thing that is a surprise. | :50:05. | :50:09. | |
Listening to Bernard, I'm afraid my mind goes back to the fantastic yes | :50:10. | :50:17. | |
Minister sketch where he says he had served 11 government in 30 years | :50:18. | :50:20. | |
that if he had believed everything all his political masters had ever | :50:21. | :50:23. | |
believed, he would have been in favour of going in and coming out of | :50:24. | :50:28. | |
the common market. He would have been in favour of Keynesian economic | :50:29. | :50:33. | |
is, they destroy and a preserve of grammar schools. He says Bob Wells, | :50:34. | :50:37. | |
Bernard, not you obviously, above all else Bernard, he says, I would | :50:38. | :50:41. | |
have been stark, staring, raving mad. That maybe so, but that is the | :50:42. | :50:46. | |
impartiality of the civil servants. Do you think they should have had a | :50:47. | :50:52. | |
nice big file that said Brexit plan? Vote to leave committee is the plan | :50:53. | :50:57. | |
that will follow on 24th of June if they win? I will tell you exactly | :50:58. | :51:01. | |
what I thought should have happened. Before a general election, months | :51:02. | :51:07. | |
before, the main opposition party will go and see the civil servants | :51:08. | :51:11. | |
in private and say this is our manifesto, this is what we would | :51:12. | :51:14. | |
expect you to be able to implement if we were elected. And I think | :51:15. | :51:18. | |
there is a very strong case for, even though a Leave campaign is not | :51:19. | :51:23. | |
a prospective government, for there to have been formal engagement. Did | :51:24. | :51:27. | |
you try? Now, it was absolutely off-limits! Did you have anything | :51:28. | :51:33. | |
even to share them if you had got in contact? Yes, there was a very large | :51:34. | :51:38. | |
volume produced by business for Britain could change or go, and you | :51:39. | :51:40. | |
would have heard of it, and that went into a great deal of the detail | :51:41. | :51:44. | |
that civil servants are having to now grapple with. There was a great | :51:45. | :51:48. | |
deal of legal discussion amongst members of Parliament about what | :51:49. | :51:54. | |
Article 50 meant and what would have to be negotiated, and how a free | :51:55. | :51:57. | |
trade agreement might be constructed. And a great deal of | :51:58. | :52:02. | |
work was done. But you did not have the opportunity. We always made it | :52:03. | :52:07. | |
clear that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market. Lots of | :52:08. | :52:10. | |
people said lots of different things. Now, we were very clear. | :52:11. | :52:15. | |
Alistair Carmichael, if Bernard Jenkin is blaming the government of | :52:16. | :52:21. | |
the day. His own government. Then should there have been preparation? | :52:22. | :52:24. | |
Would it not have been a lot easier if there had been a proper look and | :52:25. | :52:28. | |
investigation? Actually, now I don't. When I was in government and | :52:29. | :52:33. | |
we were going through the Scottish referendum preparation we said we | :52:34. | :52:35. | |
are not going to plan for something that we do not want to happen. This | :52:36. | :52:40. | |
is not government policy, we will of course respect the outcome as indeed | :52:41. | :52:43. | |
we did but we're not going to plan the something we do not want to | :52:44. | :52:49. | |
happen. Bernard does have a point, though, in that since the 23rd of | :52:50. | :52:51. | |
June there should have been planning, there should have been | :52:52. | :52:56. | |
political dimension given to the civil service, and as a member of | :52:57. | :53:01. | |
the select committee, meeting the senior management team a couple of | :53:02. | :53:04. | |
weeks ago, it is painfully obvious that even now, five months down the | :53:05. | :53:08. | |
line, none of that is happening. Do you think as an observer, Linda | :53:09. | :53:13. | |
Yueh, that there was a plan? Do you think the government has an idea | :53:14. | :53:15. | |
that it wants to do at this stage you not? I think there is probably | :53:16. | :53:21. | |
different tools within government about what Brexit is when they say | :53:22. | :53:25. | |
Brexit means Brexit, but I think the capacity timber and what they want | :53:26. | :53:28. | |
is probably something that needs to Bielik that much more -- different | :53:29. | :53:32. | |
views. We have not had trade negotiations for 40 years in | :53:33. | :53:35. | |
government because that is done by the European Union. We don't have | :53:36. | :53:39. | |
specialist lawyers, those who can advise us on how you get out for | :53:40. | :53:45. | |
instance of current trade deals. Like the Canadians, they have | :53:46. | :53:48. | |
negotiated a free-trade deal with the EU, they said they expect the UK | :53:49. | :53:51. | |
to be in this trade deal but when we leave the EU they would want to | :53:52. | :53:54. | |
discuss us keeping that trade deal on similar terms and I think that is | :53:55. | :53:58. | |
the kind of expertise you cannot build up very quickly. Right, so | :53:59. | :54:04. | |
there is a frantic chase to get new stuff and people on board and lots | :54:05. | :54:10. | |
of money is being spent? Buried in the OBE are documents those a few | :54:11. | :54:13. | |
bob in their meant for just the cost of admin of Brexit. So it will be | :54:14. | :54:19. | |
costly. The sort of sea change that has been spoken about would not have | :54:20. | :54:22. | |
been any more achievable if it had started in March rather than June. | :54:23. | :54:25. | |
The alarming thing is that in November it still has not started | :54:26. | :54:30. | |
yet. And in that sense if all of that money is going to be spent on | :54:31. | :54:33. | |
some of your Brexit colleagues say it won't cost any more in terms of | :54:34. | :54:37. | |
admin, it will cost a little bit more, do you think now there will be | :54:38. | :54:41. | |
needed some serious investment in the rights of the people to deliver | :54:42. | :54:45. | |
free-trade deals but Munster do? We will need to acquire, I'm in Canada | :54:46. | :54:50. | |
has some hundreds of trade negotiators, and we will need to | :54:51. | :54:53. | |
manage their trading relationships with the rest of the world and the | :54:54. | :54:56. | |
United Kingdom will need a similar department, which is why the | :54:57. | :55:00. | |
government has established a department for international trade, | :55:01. | :55:03. | |
and it is taking time to build up that apartment -- department. But | :55:04. | :55:07. | |
the civil service will have to adapt to, people tend to Allied order this | :55:08. | :55:11. | |
into some great big messy plot. There are some things which the | :55:12. | :55:15. | |
government needs to decide now, in preparation for negotiations and | :55:16. | :55:19. | |
some things that actually need to be decided in the agreement. Most of | :55:20. | :55:23. | |
what people are discussing is what to do after we have left. And still | :55:24. | :55:28. | |
the question about whether it was clear on leaving or not? That is the | :55:29. | :55:41. | |
next time. Michael Gove on the Andrew Marr programme made it | :55:42. | :55:44. | |
absolutely clip. Stephen Phillips had to leave Parliament, it was that | :55:45. | :55:45. | |
clear. There's just time before we go to | :55:46. | :55:50. | |
find out the answer to our quiz. The question was: what was | :55:51. | :55:53. | |
Nigel Farage photographed with last Was it a) Donald Trump's | :55:54. | :55:56. | |
daughter, Ivanka? or d) a recently acquired | :55:57. | :55:59. | |
American passport? So, Linda, what's | :56:00. | :56:03. | |
the correct answer? And actually why haven't we got a | :56:04. | :56:13. | |
nice big pile of fellow La Rochelle here? There we go, we have. He looks | :56:14. | :56:18. | |
very pleased with himself, doesn't it? Well done, you got the right | :56:19. | :56:23. | |
answer to stop hang on a second. I had better take this call. | :56:24. | :56:28. | |
When is it OK to stop concentrating on what's happening around you, | :56:29. | :56:31. | |
and start enjoying the world vicariously through your | :56:32. | :56:33. | |
Well, yesterday, when Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell | :56:34. | :56:39. | |
was delivering his very important response to Philip Hammond's Autumn | :56:40. | :56:41. | |
Statement, it wasn't holding the full attention of Labour | :56:42. | :56:43. | |
No fewer than 21 MPs sitting behind John McDonnell in the chamber can be | :56:44. | :56:48. | |
seen fiddling with their mobile phones, instead of concentrating | :56:49. | :56:50. | |
fully on what their esteemed colleague was saying. | :56:51. | :56:56. | |
So was this a gross discourtesy to the Shadow Chancellor, or is it | :56:57. | :56:59. | |
Who better to ask than etiquette coach, Jean Broke Smith? | :57:00. | :57:09. | |
What you make of this image, they are all intensely looking at their | :57:10. | :57:19. | |
messages. Horrified. I counted about 20. There was the Shadow Chancellor | :57:20. | :57:23. | |
responding, and I don't know what they were doing, perhaps they | :57:24. | :57:28. | |
were... Online shopping? Sorry be a little bit day-to-day. -- bit late. | :57:29. | :57:35. | |
And they were spreading the Labour leadership is Mac message, which | :57:36. | :57:38. | |
would have been a very important one on the day of the Autumn Statement, | :57:39. | :57:42. | |
I suppose isn't that the waves of things are these days? We hope so. | :57:43. | :57:46. | |
Mobile phones, as much as we need them, it has taken over our lives | :57:47. | :57:50. | |
completely. You go to a restaurant and you never see to people having | :57:51. | :57:54. | |
a, session. They are either under the table or they are actually | :57:55. | :58:00. | |
speaking loudly. I mean something happened to me two days ago, I was | :58:01. | :58:04. | |
walking down my road, just minding my end business, somebody was loudly | :58:05. | :58:08. | |
speaking on the phone, waving the arms around, walked straight into me | :58:09. | :58:11. | |
like that and look to me as if I should not have been on the | :58:12. | :58:16. | |
pavement. Yes, do you think now we have lost sight of General courtesy, | :58:17. | :58:20. | |
day-to-day manners when it comes to mobile phones? I think there was a | :58:21. | :58:23. | |
lot of truth to that. In Parliament I think it is completely egregious. | :58:24. | :58:29. | |
I know John McDonnell said they were treating up -- treating up messages | :58:30. | :58:32. | |
but he also said public perception matters. I suppose it is not quite | :58:33. | :58:37. | |
as bad as the Norwegian Prime Minister who was caught playing | :58:38. | :58:40. | |
Pokemon Go on her mobile phone during a session of Parliament. I | :58:41. | :58:45. | |
could not believe that at first. It was so extraordinary. I was just | :58:46. | :58:50. | |
thinking this morning, about when Cameron was in five or six years | :58:51. | :58:54. | |
ago, the band mobile phones from Cabinet meetings. I was asked what I | :58:55. | :59:02. | |
thought and I said well done. But the Norwegian situation, I read it | :59:03. | :59:08. | |
and thought this can't be. Pokemon Go and food ninja. Anyway, I am | :59:09. | :59:16. | |
pleased to say we don't allow phones only for the particular purpose of | :59:17. | :59:19. | |
that item. Thank you to all of our guests for coming in. | :59:20. | :59:23. | |
The one o'clock news is starting over on BBC One now. | :59:24. | :59:25. | |
Andrew will be here on BBC One tonight with Michael Portillo, | :59:26. | :59:28. | |
Liz Kendall, Dan Hodges, Tim Shipman, John Nicolson | :59:29. | :59:30. | |
and Stewart Lee joining on This Week from 11.45pm. | :59:31. | :59:32. | |
And the Daily Politics will be back at noon tomorrow with all the big | :59:33. | :59:36. |