24/11/2016 Daily Politics


24/11/2016

Jo Coburn is joined by economist and broadcaster Linda Yueh to discuss the Autumn Statement, Article 50 and what the US-China relationship will be like under Donald Trump.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:37.:00:40.

Brexit will cost the UK economy almost ?60 billion,

:00:41.:00:43.

according to figures unveiled by the Chancellor yesterday,

:00:44.:00:46.

but have forecasters taken too gloomy a view of the UK's ability

:00:47.:00:50.

Thomas Mair was given a whole life sentence by a judge

:00:51.:00:56.

at the Old Bailey yesterday for the brutal murder of MP Jo Cox,

:00:57.:01:00.

but is enough being done to combat far-right extremism?

:01:01.:01:06.

Donald Trump says he'll scrap a Pacific Trade deal on the first

:01:07.:01:08.

So will President Trump use hard - rather than soft -

:01:09.:01:15.

power to restrain the growing power of China?

:01:16.:01:18.

It was the Shadow Chancellor's big moment at the despatch box yesterday

:01:19.:01:23.

and Labour MPs were transfixed - by their mobile phones.

:01:24.:01:27.

Have they got something to learn about mobile phone etiquette?

:01:28.:01:35.

And with us for the whole of the programme today is a purveyor

:01:36.:01:46.

of what's been described as the "dismal science",

:01:47.:01:48.

Now, the Government has been defending the economic forecasts

:01:49.:01:52.

that were used in yesterday's Autumn Statement.

:01:53.:01:56.

The forecasts were produced by the independent Office

:01:57.:01:59.

for Budget Responsibility - and they think that the Government

:02:00.:02:02.

will have to borrow billions more because of the Brexit vote.

:02:03.:02:05.

But that view has been condemned as far too gloomy

:02:06.:02:07.

by Brexit-supporting MPs and economists.

:02:08.:02:11.

So let's remind ourselves what we learnt yesterday,

:02:12.:02:14.

when the Chancellor Philip Hammond got to the despatch box.

:02:15.:02:19.

Between now and 2021, the Government is forecast

:02:20.:02:24.

to borrow ?122 billion more than was originally predicted back

:02:25.:02:27.

Nearly half of that extra borrowing, ?58.7 billion, is due

:02:28.:02:35.

That's because of economic factors like lower migration

:02:36.:02:43.

and higher inflation which, the OBR says, are linked to Brexit.

:02:44.:02:46.

All that extra borrowing is obviously going to mean more debt.

:02:47.:02:52.

The public finances are forecast to be nearly ?2 trillion

:02:53.:02:54.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is also heading upwards.

:02:55.:03:02.

It's set to peak at 90.2% in the next financial year,

:03:03.:03:05.

And Philip Hammond said that the Government will now get rid

:03:06.:03:13.

of the deficit "as soon as practicable" in

:03:14.:03:15.

Philip Hammond has been talking about those forecasts this morning.

:03:16.:03:19.

There are lots of uncertainties in the world and economic

:03:20.:03:26.

forecasters have to try and make forecasts, notwithstanding

:03:27.:03:28.

Our job is to respond to the forecasts and,

:03:29.:03:35.

as I tried to do yesterday, to set out a path that builds

:03:36.:03:38.

on the strengths of our economy, that invests in the future,

:03:39.:03:42.

but also puts a little bit aside, creates a little bit

:03:43.:03:45.

of reserve firepower, just in case things do

:03:46.:03:48.

So that the Government is there and able to step

:03:49.:03:52.

We're joined now by Patrick Minford - of Economists for Brexit.

:03:53.:04:05.

And shortly by the Conservative MP Nadhim Zahawi, and the Shadow Chief

:04:06.:04:16.

Secretary to the Treasur, Rebecca Long Bailey, who is here.

:04:17.:04:21.

You'll have to borrow around ?60 billion according to the OBR, you'd

:04:22.:04:26.

think that number is wrong, what in your mind is the correct figure? It

:04:27.:04:31.

is less because Brexit will cause higher and not lower growth because

:04:32.:04:36.

of the policies of free-trade being pursued by the Government with

:04:37.:04:41.

respect to the rest of the world and the EU. That is the big error in the

:04:42.:04:48.

OBR's forecast, figure at the trade policy is wrong and have assumed

:04:49.:04:51.

that trade policies and the effects of uncertainty, which has already

:04:52.:04:57.

been disproved by the very strong reactions of GDP in the second and

:04:58.:05:02.

third quarter of the year which came in strongly and well above the

:05:03.:05:07.

Treasury's on forecasts. On the trade steals, you say in the

:05:08.:05:12.

long-term, Deluxe set they could be right over the next five years

:05:13.:05:15.

that's because of Brexit, there could be a case of borrowing ?60

:05:16.:05:21.

billion to compensate while we leave the EU and in the long term, you are

:05:22.:05:26.

right and the money will be made up? Not really, they have assumed the

:05:27.:05:32.

long-term effects of ex-expectations in the short term through investment

:05:33.:05:35.

cost of spending falling, and that outcomes. Of that, they have put

:05:36.:05:41.

this uncertainty effect for which there is no basis and having assumed

:05:42.:05:47.

the exchange rate to drop instead of stimulating the economy, dump is

:05:48.:05:49.

great in the economy, which is against what we know from modelling

:05:50.:05:56.

practice and evidence. Linda Yueh, Dupree, have the OBR got it wrong?

:05:57.:06:00.

They did not have much to work with because they did not have that much

:06:01.:06:06.

from the Government in the first place -- do you agree. OBR forecasts

:06:07.:06:11.

have been wrong in the past so could Patrick be right or is the OBR

:06:12.:06:17.

right? I think the OBR forecast is in line with other forecasts, the

:06:18.:06:21.

Bank of England, the International monetary fund is, they see a

:06:22.:06:24.

negative hit from Brexit because of uncertainty. The difficulty of

:06:25.:06:31.

assessing it is this, I treat uncertainty different than you. So

:06:32.:06:36.

if you supported, let's not use Brexit, let's use kittens versus

:06:37.:06:40.

poppies. He would be much more enthusiastic if you got your way but

:06:41.:06:44.

businesses are cutting back on investment and they are worried

:06:45.:06:48.

about the economic uncertainty so in that respect, I think the OBR has

:06:49.:06:52.

set out almost a worst-case scenario about a permanent hit the growth

:06:53.:06:57.

taking growth to just over 2% over the next 3-5 years. As they say, a

:06:58.:07:01.

lot of the forecasts are wrong because it is hard to forecast

:07:02.:07:05.

period when you do not know the Government's plans. And the

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Government agrees, they say you might have to take them forecasts

:07:10.:07:15.

broadly and they did not use the expression a pinch of salt but they

:07:16.:07:18.

did say it could be the worst case scenario. Are you just upset as many

:07:19.:07:23.

supporting Brexit are because you think the Bank of England as the OBR

:07:24.:07:28.

are part of the Pro-remain establishment? Yes, I do and they

:07:29.:07:33.

fought against Brexit and they are fighting for a soft Brexit. The

:07:34.:07:37.

Chancellor is fighting for a soft Brexit and that tells you the

:07:38.:07:44.

uncertainty is spurious. If we go for a soft Brexit, we will have the

:07:45.:07:48.

status quo which leaves growth exactly where it would have been,

:07:49.:07:53.

and a hard Brexit leads to free trade which is a good long-term

:07:54.:07:58.

boost to the economy. As every schoolboy and first-year economics

:07:59.:08:02.

student knows. Uncertainty is all positive here. Let's ask this

:08:03.:08:06.

economics student here, I do not know if you are! Is a soft Brexit

:08:07.:08:12.

gloom and doom and a hard Brexit on leases the UK economy and the

:08:13.:08:16.

free-trade deals? I am an engineer, not an economist! My view is that of

:08:17.:08:22.

the Chancellor and the Prime Minister, let's be prudent here.

:08:23.:08:29.

Forecast. As the OBR right? No, they forecasts and you forecast a

:08:30.:08:33.

worst-case scenario. They do not know what deal we will get and I

:08:34.:08:35.

think the Prime Minister will negotiate a good deal and forecasts

:08:36.:08:39.

will have to be adjusted. It is right for Phillip Hammond to be

:08:40.:08:44.

prudent, which is why he is talking about a ?20 billion the structure

:08:45.:08:53.

and productive fund. What about a 100 Dorien pound fund? We are being

:08:54.:08:57.

prudent and running a deficit of 2% beyond 2020. I think that is what

:08:58.:09:02.

business expects to hear, what boardrooms around the country expect

:09:03.:09:07.

to hear, a chance for and Prime Minister that are realistic and will

:09:08.:09:12.

do what is best for the country. -- Chancellor. The Autumn Statement was

:09:13.:09:16.

to make sure we have a country that is fit for purpose, to deal with us

:09:17.:09:20.

coming out of the EU and negotiate the best deal. We will see if the

:09:21.:09:25.

country is that because one of the things that has been levelled

:09:26.:09:28.

justifiably is what has happened is the prudent? There is nothing

:09:29.:09:33.

prudent, you will borrow ?122 billion more, the deficit is still

:09:34.:09:37.

there and will remain beyond 2020. There was a promise in the Tory

:09:38.:09:45.

manifesto to deal the debt, which will now be ?2 trillion by 2020,

:09:46.:09:48.

there is nothing prudent about what this Government is doing all the

:09:49.:09:51.

Autumn Statement. The lending markets, Linda will talk about that,

:09:52.:09:55.

will decide if he is being prudent, I think he is very prudent... What

:09:56.:10:02.

is prudent about ?122 billion extra borrowing that George Osborne said

:10:03.:10:06.

would not and should not happen? Maybe it is right to borrow this

:10:07.:10:10.

amount, are you happy those are the figures and the debt will spiral to

:10:11.:10:14.

nearly ?2 trillion? It is what you are borrowing to do the money...

:10:15.:10:21.

Investing in infrastructure, assets for UK pillows -- assets for UK plc

:10:22.:10:24.

is good and bringing down the deficit to 2% is the right thing to

:10:25.:10:29.

do. I think the markets will look at that as a prudent decision by the

:10:30.:10:33.

Chancellor and Prime Minister. The Labour to say we can borrow ?500

:10:34.:10:40.

billion, they need to explain that not only to the Houses of Parliament

:10:41.:10:44.

and to the markets. How can you bring down the deficit to 2%? You

:10:45.:10:48.

say you want to balance the books, how? If the debt is ?2 trillion and

:10:49.:10:53.

Labour wins the election and you will add another ?500 billion in

:10:54.:10:57.

infrastructure spending, how do you balance the books? It is interesting

:10:58.:11:00.

you should mention the borrowing, the figures you have just shown that

:11:01.:11:04.

the Government is about to run a cumulative deficit of 122 billion by

:11:05.:11:12.

2021 and they have links that directly to Brexit. The rest is

:11:13.:11:16.

attributable to mismanagement of the economy and the mood has not

:11:17.:11:20.

invested in infrastructure to the levels we need, and skills and

:11:21.:11:24.

education, the building blocks required to increase productivity.

:11:25.:11:27.

How to ?500 billion helped to bring down the deficit and the debt? That

:11:28.:11:32.

is the figure put forward by the CBI, think tanks such as the Policy

:11:33.:11:36.

Exchange, as the number required to put us on a level footing with other

:11:37.:11:41.

countries across the world. How does that help to bring down the debt? It

:11:42.:11:45.

creates high skilled, highly paid jobs to return higher tax receipts

:11:46.:11:49.

so the Treasury in the long term provides businesses with the

:11:50.:11:53.

opportunity to grow their operations and diversify so that they again

:11:54.:11:58.

campaign more in terms of taxes. That leads to increased public

:11:59.:12:03.

spending figures. So you are trying to aim, Labour, with smaller money,

:12:04.:12:08.

because you have admitted you should spend more on infrastructure and

:12:09.:12:11.

grow the economy and you are catching up after George Osborne,

:12:12.:12:15.

having choked on consumer demand to a certain expense is not paid down

:12:16.:12:20.

the deficit. Now you are spending on infrastructure and it is a drop in

:12:21.:12:24.

the ocean. George Osborne brought down... He has not eliminated it. By

:12:25.:12:30.

two thirds. It allows us to be in a place where the country is fit for

:12:31.:12:37.

purpose to invest in the programme of 23 billion in productivity. I

:12:38.:12:40.

spent a year as the previous premise to's adviser on apprenticeships to

:12:41.:12:45.

talk about the skills agenda. We have pioneered that, 3 million

:12:46.:12:49.

apprenticeships by the start of this Parliament. 2.3 billion in the last

:12:50.:12:54.

Parliament invested in apprenticeships including degree

:12:55.:12:57.

apprenticeships. So the high skilled, high investment is coming

:12:58.:13:00.

from a Conservative Government being prudent and the markets will reward

:13:01.:13:05.

us for this prudence. Should the Conservative Party apologised to the

:13:06.:13:08.

British public for failing to get rid of the deficit and for the

:13:09.:13:11.

spiralling debt? I don't agree with you, I think the Chancellor has to

:13:12.:13:16.

do what is necessary for the country, things have changed. We

:13:17.:13:21.

have had a Brexit vote. Do you blame Brexit for this extra ?60 billion

:13:22.:13:26.

that the OBR says the country has the borrow? No, is we have to act in

:13:27.:13:33.

a way like any steward of any plc, make sure that the country is bit to

:13:34.:13:37.

take on the challenges of the future. The current forecasts from

:13:38.:13:41.

the OBR gives you the numbers you have rehearsed with Patrick Minford

:13:42.:13:44.

but that could be wrong because the premise is fighting for a good deal.

:13:45.:13:49.

Let's go back to Patrick, you have said this morning the OBR is wrong

:13:50.:13:54.

to assume a spending slowdown, due to lower migration. But during the

:13:55.:13:59.

referendum campaign, that was one of the centrepieces, lower migration.

:14:00.:14:02.

One of the main arguments for Brexit. I had a discussion with you

:14:03.:14:08.

about it as I recall and I pointed out on skilled migration caused

:14:09.:14:11.

negative effects for our growth because it cost so much in terms of

:14:12.:14:16.

welfare. That is really the focus of the referendum campaign. It was not

:14:17.:14:20.

on skilled migration but migration of unskilled workers. But lower

:14:21.:14:26.

migration numbers. Yes, but the point about the OBR's forecasts, if

:14:27.:14:31.

they talk about constraining on skilled migration, that would have

:14:32.:14:35.

given them a plus and not a minus. So the whole point is that there is

:14:36.:14:39.

nothing wrong with the prudence of the Chancellor, what is wrong is the

:14:40.:14:44.

negative tone he has taken over Brexit, where he is in charge of

:14:45.:14:47.

policy with the Government and are committed to giving the best

:14:48.:14:52.

policies. Free trade and so forth including controlling on skilled

:14:53.:14:59.

migration which creates a negative. The turn that into a positive. What

:15:00.:15:02.

the problem is, the tone of this Autumn Statement is totally negative

:15:03.:15:05.

in the most crucial area which is Brexit policy. That is a real crime

:15:06.:15:10.

by the Chancellor. So not just the OBR, in your mind. He did not have

:15:11.:15:16.

to accept the OBR. They are the independent OBR and the Government's

:15:17.:15:18.

independent armour. He could have said I am not -1

:15:19.:15:37.

Brexit, we will pursue the policies that will be good for this country.

:15:38.:15:41.

He has confidence in that. Instead of which he said it is going to be

:15:42.:15:48.

bad and I'm going to be prudent. Let's move on because there was

:15:49.:15:50.

another area where many people feel it was negative, in terms of

:15:51.:15:57.

people's prospects, and that is the JAMs, the term for people just about

:15:58.:16:00.

managing. Theresa May said they would be a government for everyone

:16:01.:16:03.

but let's have a look at some of the figures because the Resolution

:16:04.:16:06.

foundation have looked at the effect of the Autumn Statement on a typical

:16:07.:16:12.

family. Policies like free childcare are raising the tax threshold would

:16:13.:16:16.

save those families ?190 a year, plus 190.

:16:17.:16:24.

But they will lose ?1970 come as though a net loss of ?1780. There it

:16:25.:16:33.

is, black and white. Those families will be worse off. They will be a

:16:34.:16:37.

lot worse. Nothing about helping the people who are just managing. Well,

:16:38.:16:43.

we have not looked at freezing fuel duties, many of those families will

:16:44.:16:48.

save money. It is not going to make ?1780. But you can't select --

:16:49.:16:52.

selectively choose something and say that is the number when you have not

:16:53.:16:56.

taken the whole of the Autumn Statement, including the freeze on

:16:57.:17:03.

fuel duties, relief on council tax, affordable housing, all of these

:17:04.:17:06.

things will make a difference. The net effect on those types of

:17:07.:17:10.

families, those are the figures. They will be losing ?1780. You want

:17:11.:17:16.

to put in your frozen fuel Judeo can take it down a little bit more come

:17:17.:17:20.

but they are not being helped. Whichever way you cut it, Nadhim

:17:21.:17:24.

Zahawi, they are losing. Over the past six years of you look at who

:17:25.:17:28.

has shouldered the large burden in terms of both wage increase, so

:17:29.:17:31.

those people have seen their wages go up, because of the national

:17:32.:17:34.

living wage, which is going up in April against a ?7 50, worth

:17:35.:17:38.

reminding of that, if you take the last six years, the wealthiest

:17:39.:17:43.

people in our country has shouldered the largest burden of the belt

:17:44.:17:47.

tightening we have had to take since the crash of 2008-9. That is the

:17:48.:17:52.

difference. You are looking at a single year and saying the numbers

:17:53.:17:56.

look like they are not doing... But the Chancellor has tried to help

:17:57.:18:00.

because of the move on universal benefits, universal credit, that is

:18:01.:18:04.

actually helped. A little bit. The move on universal credit will soften

:18:05.:18:08.

the blow, it is no way going to reverse the cuts. I must come to

:18:09.:18:14.

Rebecca. People who have shouldered the greatest responsibility to get

:18:15.:18:19.

the economy back on its feet are the wealthiest in our country, any

:18:20.:18:22.

economist will tell you that. So now you are going to hit the one to

:18:23.:18:25.

answer well. The figures speak for themselves. Rebecca, when with

:18:26.:18:31.

Labour eradicated episode? We would have taken very different decisions

:18:32.:18:35.

to this government. We certainly would not have made cuts to the most

:18:36.:18:41.

wealthiest in society's taxes, in terms of inheritance tax, capital

:18:42.:18:46.

gains tax. We would have invested in our economy. So when would you have

:18:47.:18:51.

eradicated the deficit? We have a fiscal credibility rule that has

:18:52.:18:56.

been put together by world leading economists, and over five years we

:18:57.:19:03.

would separate topic spinning and capital spending. The rolling

:19:04.:19:05.

deficit-reduction plans, so when would it be react -- eradicated?

:19:06.:19:11.

Within a period of five years, by the end of the next parliament after

:19:12.:19:17.

we had taken over, yes. So 2025? Guess, unless there were situations

:19:18.:19:21.

through the world economically, extremely adverse conditions. Do you

:19:22.:19:27.

agree on having an overall cap on welfare spending? I think the cap

:19:28.:19:30.

that the government has so far is not productive at all. I don't think

:19:31.:19:35.

the decisions the government have been made have been morally correct.

:19:36.:19:39.

Would there be a cat, with Labour would you cap the overall spend on

:19:40.:19:44.

welfare? We are against the welfare cap generally that we would have the

:19:45.:19:47.

USS welfare spend because you wanted to be there for everybody, to make

:19:48.:19:50.

sure everybody pays their fair share, but equally want to make sure

:19:51.:19:54.

people have enough to live on. So sounds like you are not in favour of

:19:55.:19:58.

having a cap. At the same time he would make sure you had a housing

:19:59.:20:02.

system where rents went sky high and people could afford to live, where

:20:03.:20:05.

people could afford to buy their own homes. Everyone would agree with

:20:06.:20:10.

that, at some stage you might be asked to put a cap on spending full

:20:11.:20:15.

stop Linda Yueh, back on the Brexit point, you think Patrick Minford,

:20:16.:20:21.

his argument, the reason he is so annoyed, is based also the fact that

:20:22.:20:25.

the pro-Remain camp -- pro Remain camp argued so this firstly that

:20:26.:20:30.

there would be an immediate recession, and immediate crash in

:20:31.:20:35.

terms of economic perspective it hasn't happened? Yes, and I think

:20:36.:20:38.

that is probably when the Remain camp oversold how confident they

:20:39.:20:42.

could be about economic forecasts and assessments. But I think it

:20:43.:20:45.

doesn't change the longer term point, which is it is going to be

:20:46.:20:48.

years before we know what our relationship with the rest of the

:20:49.:20:52.

world is, and our growth depends a great deal on getting into other

:20:53.:20:57.

markets. So we use the term free trade a lot but free trade is not

:20:58.:21:00.

free full stop you cannot get into a market unless you have an agreement

:21:01.:21:03.

open at market, and that is why most economists would say we have now

:21:04.:21:07.

entered a period of economic uncertainty and it is going to be

:21:08.:21:10.

harder to get us back to where we are. But that's not the same thing

:21:11.:21:14.

as saying obviously that immediately we will lose half a million jobs,

:21:15.:21:18.

which I always thought was, you can't be too confident in any of

:21:19.:21:23.

these economic assessments. CHUCKLING

:21:24.:21:25.

All right, Patrick Minford, I will have to say goodbye to you and

:21:26.:21:29.

Nadhim Zahawi and Rebecca Long Bailey, thank you all of you.

:21:30.:21:36.

What was Nigel Farage photographed with last night

:21:37.:21:41.

Was it - a) Donald Trump's daughter, Ivanka?

:21:42.:21:44.

Or d) A recently acquired American passport?

:21:45.:21:49.

At the end of the show, Linda will give us

:21:50.:21:53.

Now the something altogether different and a lot more serious.

:21:54.:21:59.

Yesterday, Thomas Mair was convicted of the brutal murder

:22:00.:22:01.

He was given a whole life sentence for his crime.

:22:02.:22:06.

Only a Home Secretary can agree to his release from prison,

:22:07.:22:09.

because of the "exceptional seriousness" of the crime.

:22:10.:22:11.

The judge said that he was inspired by admiration for Nazis

:22:12.:22:13.

and similar anti-democratic white supremacist creeds.

:22:14.:22:15.

The Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, was asked

:22:16.:22:17.

about Thomas Mair's conviction this morning.

:22:18.:22:23.

I think all of us - and it isn't just politicians,

:22:24.:22:26.

it's the whole of society now - have to look at how

:22:27.:22:28.

Yes, some of the violent nature of our politics at the moment.

:22:29.:22:38.

Jo's was a terrible extreme example, but if you look at the abuse that

:22:39.:22:46.

some people have suffered - in the past, we've had it,

:22:47.:22:49.

Not just against migrants, but we've had hate crime rise

:22:50.:22:54.

And so I think what we have to be careful about in all walks

:22:55.:22:59.

of life now is to see how we can unite people.

:23:00.:23:02.

And even on this Brexit vote, you know, it's divided society,

:23:03.:23:04.

We're joined now by the Labour MP and chair of the Home

:23:05.:23:11.

Affairs Select Committee, Yvette Cooper.

:23:12.:23:14.

Welcome to the Daily Politics. Would you describe the murder of Jo Cox as

:23:15.:23:23.

a terrorist incident? Guess, I think so. It was a political assassination

:23:24.:23:28.

and as much a terrorist act as other kinds of either far right extremism

:23:29.:23:31.

or Islamist extremism, and we should face that is what it was. Jo Cox was

:23:32.:23:36.

murdered because of her views, because of what she believed in and

:23:37.:23:40.

it was a deliberate attempt to pursue a political agenda. Now

:23:41.:23:46.

actually I think, as Jo's husband Brendan Cox said yesterday, it is

:23:47.:23:50.

also an attack that failed in its terrorist objectives, because what

:23:51.:23:54.

it led to was the huge outpouring across West Yorkshire and across the

:23:55.:23:58.

country of support not just for Jo and her family but for a lot of the

:23:59.:24:02.

ideas that she stood for as well. Right, so you dismiss the idea that

:24:03.:24:06.

he was in some way a lone wolf? I mean he was a loan move, that

:24:07.:24:11.

inspired by the ideology you have outlined -- he was a lone wolf. Do

:24:12.:24:15.

you think at the time some politicians and campaigners were

:24:16.:24:22.

accused of trying to politicise Jo's murder? We were right in the middle

:24:23.:24:25.

of that frenetic campaign. Do you think somehow there was hate whipped

:24:26.:24:31.

up by the EU referendum campaign? I think you have two separate out the

:24:32.:24:34.

referendum itself, and the way in which people behave around it,

:24:35.:24:38.

because it has to be legitimate to have referenda, to have proper

:24:39.:24:43.

public debates and arguments about things in a democracy. That is what

:24:44.:24:47.

the Moxey is all about. What I think Thomas Mair added, though, was an

:24:48.:24:53.

assault on democracy, an attack on obviously a democratically elected

:24:54.:24:56.

member of Parliament but it was an assault on democracy, not an

:24:57.:25:00.

expression of democracy, which is what the referendum was all about.

:25:01.:25:03.

We have been looking at issues around hate crime in Taiwan, and

:25:04.:25:11.

some of the escalation of hate crime, and reports of hate crime in

:25:12.:25:14.

the run-up to and immediately after the referendum and concerns people

:25:15.:25:19.

have raised about the way in which some people were whipping up hatred

:25:20.:25:22.

is part of the campaign. That is separate, I think, from the fact of

:25:23.:25:27.

having a referendum itself. OK, because you talked about the day

:25:28.:25:31.

afterwards on the today programme, the day after Jo Cox was murdered

:25:32.:25:36.

about the vitriol in the campaign and the nasty this, but do you think

:25:37.:25:42.

that is the sort of thing that led someone like Thomas Mair to carry

:25:43.:25:45.

out something they had perhaps been thinking about for a long time? It

:25:46.:25:49.

was clear with Thomas Mair that he had been investigating far right

:25:50.:25:54.

extremist websites, white supremacists, neo-Nazi, really vile

:25:55.:25:59.

ideology for a very long time. One of the groups that gave evidence to

:26:00.:26:05.

our select committee said, hope not hate, they said it was not that

:26:06.:26:10.

these sorts of political events increased the number of people who

:26:11.:26:14.

expressed hatred, but that those who were already may be extreme racists

:26:15.:26:24.

all advocates of violence somehow became involved in, and there is a

:26:25.:26:27.

difference between those two, but it shows we have to be vigilant and

:26:28.:26:31.

stand up for that. Do you think politicians have not been vigilant

:26:32.:26:35.

enough, because there has been a lot of talk and coverage about the risks

:26:36.:26:38.

of Islamic terrorism and ideology poisoning the minds of young

:26:39.:26:46.

Muslims, but has the threat been completely underestimated?

:26:47.:26:49.

Interestingly, this is the third violent attack in recent years,

:26:50.:26:53.

because there was the attack in North Wales, an attempt to behead

:26:54.:26:59.

someone by a far right extremist, and also the murder of Mohammed

:27:00.:27:03.

Salim, who was murdered simply for being Muslim, again by a far right

:27:04.:27:07.

extremist. So I think we have to take these attacks extremely

:27:08.:27:10.

seriously, and it is right that the police should do so as part of

:27:11.:27:14.

preventing extremism as well. Of course, these are crimes, which

:27:15.:27:18.

would be tried and prosecuted anyway, but in terms of the spread

:27:19.:27:21.

of an ideology driving those sorts of crimes, has that been

:27:22.:27:25.

underestimated? Some of the figures from Prevent, the government's

:27:26.:27:29.

counter radicalisation strategy, are saying that in certain parts of the

:27:30.:27:32.

country that actually the rise, there has been a significant

:27:33.:27:38.

increase in far right extremist either attacks were protests, and

:27:39.:27:43.

they are growing. Nationwide they still say Islamic terrorism is the

:27:44.:27:47.

bigger problem but perhaps this has been overlooked. And it is in

:27:48.:27:52.

particular areas as well. Small, very nasty groups of neo-Nazi

:27:53.:27:57.

organisations as well. And small organisations in different parts of

:27:58.:28:01.

the country that I'd have different focuses. I think the police need to

:28:02.:28:07.

take it very seriously. But there is also a wider responsibility on all

:28:08.:28:11.

of us not to take democracy for granted and to promote the sort of

:28:12.:28:15.

values that I suppose actually Jo Cox stood for, the more in common

:28:16.:28:21.

campaign that Jo's family have setup is to tackle that kind of hatred at

:28:22.:28:25.

its source before it can escalate and spread. Is there a danger of

:28:26.:28:34.

linking populist right-wing ideologies with far right extremist?

:28:35.:28:39.

So you could look at the alt right in the strip -- in the States. They

:28:40.:28:44.

seem to be feeling more comfortable with Donald Trump was not associated

:28:45.:28:49.

with them in anyway. Do you have to be careful not to link the two? I

:28:50.:28:54.

think all politicians, and that includes the President elect of the

:28:55.:28:57.

United States, have to be really careful not to give licence to these

:28:58.:29:03.

far right extremists, white supremacists, bile organisations.

:29:04.:29:07.

And I think that is the risk. You are right, we should not just merge

:29:08.:29:12.

things were mediocre about it, but equally that means in every

:29:13.:29:18.

organisation for Donald Trump right now, but similarly for politicians

:29:19.:29:21.

right here, they have to be very careful not to whip up hatred and

:29:22.:29:25.

give licence to it. Does that include the accusations of just

:29:26.:29:28.

dismissing or ignoring the claims of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party? I

:29:29.:29:33.

have always said we should do much more to deal with anti-Semitism in

:29:34.:29:36.

the Labour Party and across the country. So when John McDonald talks

:29:37.:29:40.

about unity and trying to bring people together, does he and do

:29:41.:29:46.

Jeremy Corbyn have to do more? -- John McDonnell. Ulverston. That is

:29:47.:29:52.

why I have said whether it is in the Labour Party or other political

:29:53.:29:55.

parties across the country, we also have to do more -- wall of us do. We

:29:56.:30:01.

also have to do more to challenge online hatred because that can go

:30:02.:30:03.

into something much worse as well. Thank you.

:30:04.:30:08.

On Tuesday, Donald Trump confirmed that he will be abandoning

:30:09.:30:10.

something called TPP, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

:30:11.:30:12.

It's a trade deal with other countries in the Pacific region,

:30:13.:30:14.

but while TTP's about trade, it was also about challenging

:30:15.:30:17.

So what does abandoning it mean for the balance of power in

:30:18.:30:21.

If Donald Trump's victory was an anti-globalisation vote,

:30:22.:30:29.

then his pledge to scrap big trade deals was the rallying call.

:30:30.:30:37.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is another disaster,

:30:38.:30:38.

done and pushed by special interests, who want

:30:39.:30:42.

Just a continuing rape of our country.

:30:43.:30:46.

On Tuesday, President-elect Trump made good on that promise,

:30:47.:30:55.

in a YouTube video setting out his plans for his first

:30:56.:30:58.

I am going to issue our notification of intent to withdraw

:30:59.:31:02.

from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a potential disaster

:31:03.:31:03.

Instead, we will negotiate fair, bilateral trade deals that bring

:31:04.:31:09.

jobs and industry back onto American shores.

:31:10.:31:15.

The partnership was supposed to unite 12 countries and 40%

:31:16.:31:19.

of the world economy, in a giant single market,

:31:20.:31:21.

Known as TPP for short, to its fans, it spelled prosperity

:31:22.:31:29.

and an increase in living standards across the globe.

:31:30.:31:34.

To critics, it could cost jobs and was too helpful to corporations.

:31:35.:31:37.

China is now pushing its own rival partnership programme,

:31:38.:31:39.

This week, the Chinese Premier was selling the idea in South America.

:31:40.:31:46.

There's no better illustration of China's expansionary instincts

:31:47.:31:51.

than the artificial islands it's building in the Pacific,

:31:52.:31:55.

potentially for use as military bases.

:31:56.:31:59.

President Obama was already committed to expanding the US

:32:00.:32:03.

presence in the Pacific, with plans for 60% of the American Navy to be

:32:04.:32:06.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership was partly designed as a way

:32:07.:32:15.

of countering their economic and military might.

:32:16.:32:22.

With that trade deal dead in the water, how

:32:23.:32:24.

will Trump's America stand up to them now?

:32:25.:32:26.

We're joined now by Leslie Vinajamuri, from Foreign Affairs

:32:27.:32:29.

think tank Chatham House, and the economist Linda Yueh

:32:30.:32:31.

Leslie, how important was the Trans-Pacific Partnership to Obama's

:32:32.:32:41.

China strategy? It was absolutely central, a central piece of the US

:32:42.:32:45.

pivot to Asia and it was seen as a way of containing the rise of China

:32:46.:32:51.

and securing America's role in the region and integrating the Asian

:32:52.:32:54.

economies through trade. It was central, so this is a big lose for

:32:55.:33:00.

the Obama administration. A big ruse for the Obama administration, is it

:33:01.:33:04.

a big clues for America? I think it is, in many ways, America's standing

:33:05.:33:10.

in the world is not just about trade but influence in all parts of the

:33:11.:33:14.

world and that is what the Obama administration was trying to cement

:33:15.:33:17.

and move away from the Middle East and towards Asia which is faster

:33:18.:33:21.

growing. So the fact that President-elect Trump is going to

:33:22.:33:27.

turn them inward, he will concede ground to China in terms of global

:33:28.:33:32.

influence. And President Obama knows how hard it is to save TPP, there

:33:33.:33:36.

were three things he wanted to save with Donald Trump in the first

:33:37.:33:41.

meeting, the Iran deal, climate change and Obamacare, trade did not

:33:42.:33:44.

make it onto the list, which shows you how much of his legacy is at

:33:45.:33:48.

risk. He was facing towards the Pacific and many felt he had

:33:49.:33:51.

abandoned the Middle East and the conflicts that because he was going

:33:52.:33:56.

to face it differently in his administration. Can it survive

:33:57.:34:00.

without the US, the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Is there any point to

:34:01.:34:05.

it? No, and it is interesting, it is very unlikely and China has put its

:34:06.:34:11.

own deal on the table for a regional and comprehensive and economic

:34:12.:34:13.

strategy. There will now be an opening for China to act as a leader

:34:14.:34:18.

in the region and to unite trade and economic claims more generally. What

:34:19.:34:23.

about militarily, will there be an opportunity, will the Chinese take

:34:24.:34:27.

the opportunity in terms of trying to at least flex their muscles

:34:28.:34:31.

militarily now they see there is an opening? Yes, China has been more

:34:32.:34:35.

assertive in the South China Seas and the big unknown is that Trump is

:34:36.:34:42.

unknown and his people still. It is whether they tried to pursue a more

:34:43.:34:48.

aggressive and assertive policy strategy of containment through

:34:49.:34:50.

military build-up in the region, or whether there is a complete

:34:51.:34:54.

withdrawal, which seems unlikely. But the rhetoric has been all over

:34:55.:34:58.

the map and it is difficult to predict, very uncertain. What does

:34:59.:35:04.

Donald Trump do if he wants to constrain growing Chinese power? Is

:35:05.:35:07.

he just going to use soft power to do that? I think the fear is he

:35:08.:35:12.

might go harder. And what you don't want is a renewal of military

:35:13.:35:16.

tensions above all else. So one of the worrying thing is about Trump is

:35:17.:35:21.

we know he is closer to regimes such as Russia than his predecessors and

:35:22.:35:25.

that raises the prospect is that you have a very different view of how

:35:26.:35:30.

you integrate the world. Is it about positioning yourself for influence

:35:31.:35:39.

or about integrating and linking and we don't know enough about

:35:40.:35:41.

President-elect Trump to know which way he will go? Looking inward, I am

:35:42.:35:44.

sure it will not be helpful for the accommodate in America which he

:35:45.:35:47.

wants to double the growth rate of, America needs to be part of the girl

:35:48.:35:51.

-- global system. If China sets the terms of trade, that does not help

:35:52.:35:57.

America. Thinking in the UK, one of the things Trump is worried about is

:35:58.:36:02.

the negative impact on American wages of dealing with American --

:36:03.:36:05.

developing countries and that is less of a case with developed

:36:06.:36:09.

countries. He has already said Britain will not be at the back of

:36:10.:36:14.

the queue. We would be comparable. Is this the end of the multilateral

:36:15.:36:21.

trade deals? If Trump on pics or at least ratifies these multilateral

:36:22.:36:26.

trade deals, it will be about bilateral trade deals? It was

:36:27.:36:32.

already moving that way in terms of bilateral, multilateral is the World

:36:33.:36:34.

Trade Organisation doing another massive round. People would argue

:36:35.:36:41.

they don't always achieve that much. No, and probably the difficult of

:36:42.:36:44.

multilateral ones now is that trade is so much more complicated and is

:36:45.:36:48.

about investment and services. Even though economists would like to see

:36:49.:36:52.

a big multilateral trade deal, it takes two long and so now they will

:36:53.:36:55.

be more specific about what is negotiated like services. And China

:36:56.:37:03.

is interesting because they initiated the Asia infrastructure

:37:04.:37:05.

investment bank which the United States did not join, the UK did. It

:37:06.:37:11.

is another effort to think regionally and collaboratively and

:37:12.:37:15.

to displace the US leadership and power and standards and norms, which

:37:16.:37:19.

is a grave threat to the US leadership role in the world. As

:37:20.:37:24.

Linda said, if the soft power is going to be put to one side on the

:37:25.:37:29.

trade deal, one will look at some of the military signs and Trump has

:37:30.:37:34.

said he wants to expand the US Navy, and build up the number of ships,

:37:35.:37:39.

what is the significance of that? I think the concern is that if you

:37:40.:37:44.

pursue a strategy that focuses on hard power without integrating trade

:37:45.:37:48.

and soft power and diplomacy to the centre, it sets you up to have a

:37:49.:37:51.

more contentious relationship with the region. And as we know in the

:37:52.:37:57.

campaign, the commitment to the US commitment to Japan and Korea was

:37:58.:38:01.

not on the table firmly so even with the military build-up, there is a

:38:02.:38:05.

lot of uncertainty about what that means for America's one standing

:38:06.:38:09.

allies. Some of these countries already jumping at the chance of a

:38:10.:38:13.

bilateral, Chile for example, they see it as an opportunity as well?

:38:14.:38:19.

Yes, and the route which hosted the summit were China, they immediately

:38:20.:38:23.

asked to sign up to a Chinese lead free trade area -- and the roof.

:38:24.:38:27.

Thank you very much. Now, in less than a fortnight,

:38:28.:38:33.

the Supreme Court will be hearing the most important case

:38:34.:38:36.

in a generation. At stake, whether the Government

:38:37.:38:37.

alone can decide to trigger the process of our exit

:38:38.:38:40.

from the European Union, or whether Parliament needs

:38:41.:38:42.

to approve the process first. Earlier this month, three High Court

:38:43.:38:45.

judges sided with campaigners, telling the Government that it

:38:46.:38:48.

would have to get the approval of Parliament before

:38:49.:38:51.

triggering Article 50. Theresa May wants to trigger Article

:38:52.:38:52.

50, starting the UK's divorce negotiations

:38:53.:38:55.

with the European Union, Talks are supposed to last two

:38:56.:38:56.

years, so that would mean the UK So the Government has appealed

:38:57.:39:06.

to the Supreme Court and, next month, 11 judges

:39:07.:39:16.

there will have to decide whether to uphold or overturn

:39:17.:39:18.

the High Court Ruling. Last week, the Court also decided

:39:19.:39:27.

that the senior law officers from Scotland and Wales will be

:39:28.:39:31.

allowed to address the Court At stake is whether triggering

:39:32.:39:33.

Article 50 leads inevitably to the repeal of the 1972

:39:34.:39:37.

European Communities Act. Normally, only MPs and peers

:39:38.:39:41.

have the power to repeal The Government is planning

:39:42.:39:44.

to introduce what they are calling "The Great Repeal Bill"

:39:45.:39:54.

in the spring, but that faces the prospect of months of debates,

:39:55.:39:56.

amendments and votes in the Commons and the Lords,

:39:57.:40:00.

so approval for that could be We're joined now from Cambridge

:40:01.:40:03.

by Professor Christopher Forsyth, who is a professor of Public Law

:40:04.:40:07.

at Cambridge University, and the SNP MP Joanna Cherry,

:40:08.:40:10.

who is on the Brexit Select Welcome to both of you. Christopher,

:40:11.:40:24.

does the triggering of Article 50 ultimately leads to the repeal of

:40:25.:40:34.

the 1972 act? No, it does not. It may read irrevocably to our

:40:35.:40:39.

departure from the EU but it does not do anything about repealing the

:40:40.:40:45.

EU act. Can you look into the camera? Perfect. Why do you say

:40:46.:40:50.

that? That was the position of the Government lawyers, as well as the

:40:51.:40:53.

person who brought the case, Gina Malone. We may be talking about a

:40:54.:40:59.

technical difference here. We could cease to be members of the EU and

:41:00.:41:03.

the treaties would no longer apply, but unless Parliament legislated to

:41:04.:41:09.

remove the 1972 act from the statute book, it would remain on the statute

:41:10.:41:13.

book. That is the sense in which it is not being repealed and we would

:41:14.:41:17.

cease to be members of the EU. The point being made is that we would

:41:18.:41:21.

lose rights, we would lose rights that would be lost for ever and that

:41:22.:41:26.

cannot happen unless Parliament, both the Commons and the Lords, have

:41:27.:41:31.

a say in those rights being repealed or lost. That is absolutely right.

:41:32.:41:36.

But it is from a slightly different principle. The prerogative should

:41:37.:41:42.

not be used to frustrate Parliamentary legislation. And that

:41:43.:41:46.

is what would be happening, so the argument for the claimants goes, in

:41:47.:41:51.

the current case. That is what would be happening if we cease to be

:41:52.:41:56.

members of the EU, it would effectively amounts to the repeal of

:41:57.:42:01.

the act. In your view, once Article 50 is triggered, it is it

:42:02.:42:06.

reversible? Well, the High Court found it was irrevocable and the

:42:07.:42:10.

Government lawyers conceded that in the High Court. As a matter of law,

:42:11.:42:13.

it is open to the Government lawyers to withdraw their concession to the

:42:14.:42:17.

Supreme Court and it may be difficult for them to do so. It

:42:18.:42:20.

would involve political difficulties for the Government because of

:42:21.:42:25.

Article 50 triggering which is not remarkable and Brexiter does not

:42:26.:42:28.

mean Brexit. And Parliament does not have to give its approval?

:42:29.:42:35.

Ultimately, the question of whether Article 50 is irrevocable is a

:42:36.:42:38.

matter for the European Court of Justice and it would be rather

:42:39.:42:40.

embarrassing for the British Government giving it stands and

:42:41.:42:47.

reluctance to exist -- to accept the justice and Luxembourg, to refer the

:42:48.:42:52.

question of Article 50 to Luxembourg. You have tried to

:42:53.:42:56.

compare it to the Brexit vote. The Brexit vote was a referendum, it was

:42:57.:43:02.

one... I have not compared to the vote, this is illegal and is not

:43:03.:43:07.

political matter. You have tried to say Brexit would not mean Brexit.

:43:08.:43:13.

Let me just explained. So that people understand. One is a

:43:14.:43:18.

political answer to a question. That can be interpreted in whatever way,

:43:19.:43:23.

but everyone is broadly agreed. Actually, people said they wanted to

:43:24.:43:28.

leave the EU. Even if they say... It was a UK referendum. Indeed, but I

:43:29.:43:33.

am here as a Scottish MP and I want to talk about the fact that 62% of

:43:34.:43:39.

Scots voted to remain. It was not a devolved issue. 72% in my

:43:40.:43:44.

constituency. The EU is written into the Scotland Act which founded the

:43:45.:43:50.

Scotland Parliament and European law affects citizens in Scotland and

:43:51.:43:55.

indeed businesses. And so there is a very strong argument that triggering

:43:56.:43:58.

Article 50 will affect the rights of individuals in Scotland, this is

:43:59.:44:03.

where Scotland comes in. Let's put that to Christopher, do you agree on

:44:04.:44:09.

that? I agree that the question of whether the Article 50 notice can be

:44:10.:44:13.

revoked is an important question. And there is a respectable case for

:44:14.:44:17.

suggesting that it could be revoked, based upon a technical argument to

:44:18.:44:21.

do with the Vienna Law of treaties. But if the UK could revoke the

:44:22.:44:27.

notice once it is given, it would completely transform the position

:44:28.:44:30.

because it would mean if we did not like the deal we got at the end of

:44:31.:44:34.

the process, we could walk away from it by revoking our notice. And of

:44:35.:44:38.

course, it would completely undermine the argument that the

:44:39.:44:43.

triggering of the notice removes rights. Of course, as Joanna has

:44:44.:44:52.

just remarked, that would cause difficulties for the Government

:44:53.:44:57.

because it is ultimately a question of EU law and would require

:44:58.:45:02.

reference to the EU Court, meaning delays of up to two years and you

:45:03.:45:07.

could imagine the political consequences of a EU court denying

:45:08.:45:13.

us Brexit! On that basis, do you think the Government lawyers have

:45:14.:45:15.

employed the wrong arguments by making their case here?

:45:16.:45:22.

I think that is perhaps so, I think it was for political reasons they

:45:23.:45:29.

conceded the point about revocable at it, but the other grounds they

:45:30.:45:33.

conceded that they shouldn't have. The one that strikes you most

:45:34.:45:40.

obviously is the status of the 2015 referendum act, the act under which

:45:41.:45:45.

the referendum took place was that that is the act which forms the

:45:46.:45:49.

foundation of the proposition that the outcome of the referendum is

:45:50.:45:54.

only advisory. Now I'm not sure that that's absolutely right, because it

:45:55.:46:00.

seems to me that you can argue that by the 2015 act, Parliament

:46:01.:46:04.

delegated to the people the right to decide this question, and the people

:46:05.:46:09.

have decided it. Right, then if following on from that, do you think

:46:10.:46:14.

this is an example, Christopher Forsyth, of a broader trend of

:46:15.:46:19.

judicial activism? Now, I certainly don't think that. The judgment of

:46:20.:46:25.

the court below is commendably orthodox, it upholds the supremacy

:46:26.:46:32.

and constitutional law in an understandable way. It is arguable

:46:33.:46:36.

that some of those principles have been randomly applied, and this is

:46:37.:46:42.

by the government may be successful on appeal, but it is a commendably

:46:43.:46:46.

orthodox judgment and there is nothing wrong with... I'd deprecate

:46:47.:46:51.

the attacks on the judges made as a result. Let me come back to you on

:46:52.:46:58.

the idea of Scotland getting a separate deal, Joanna Cherry, do you

:46:59.:47:02.

think that is paid in the water now, there is no indication from the EU

:47:03.:47:07.

that could happen? Scotland getting a separate deal is ultimately a

:47:08.:47:10.

matter to discuss between the Scottish and the British government

:47:11.:47:12.

in the first instance, and then the UK Government would go to the EU to

:47:13.:47:16.

say this is the deal we want, and I don't think it is dead in the water

:47:17.:47:20.

and the Scottish Government will shortly be coming forward with their

:47:21.:47:24.

detailed proposals. But it is all about the right of Scottish voters

:47:25.:47:27.

through the Scottish Parliament to be consulted, and this is why the

:47:28.:47:31.

Lord Advocate James Weir off QC has sought to intervene on behalf of the

:47:32.:47:35.

Scottish Government and the Supreme Court have allowed him to make

:47:36.:47:41.

submissions about points arising from Scottish constitutional law,

:47:42.:47:43.

which may be relevant to the case. Of course in the high case, -- in

:47:44.:47:48.

the High Court was no proper argument, and the High Court made

:47:49.:47:52.

the assumption that the constitutional them in Wales and

:47:53.:47:54.

Scotland is the same, which we would argue is not the case. Thank you

:47:55.:47:56.

very much, Joanna Cherry. The government has been heavily

:47:57.:48:00.

criticised for its lack of planning for a vote to leave

:48:01.:48:02.

the European Union, and Bernard Jenkin, the Chair

:48:03.:48:05.

of Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs

:48:06.:48:07.

Committee, has laid the blame on civil servants, who he says

:48:08.:48:09.

"are not emotionally Here he is speaking

:48:10.:48:11.

in a Westminster Hall A lot of the civil service

:48:12.:48:14.

is struggling to catch up with the absence of preparation

:48:15.:48:20.

for the outcome of the referendum, which I think is one of the lessons

:48:21.:48:24.

we must take from this referendum. It is unforgivable for a government

:48:25.:48:28.

to call a referendum and remain completely unprepared for one

:48:29.:48:31.

of the possible eventualities. And therefore, there are a lot

:48:32.:48:36.

of officials who are rapidly trying to get their brains around -

:48:37.:48:41.

perhaps in a scenario that they're not emotionally attracted to anyway

:48:42.:48:43.

- some very, very difficult and complicated questions,

:48:44.:48:46.

and it's taking some time. And I'm joined now by Bernard

:48:47.:48:51.

Jenkin, and the Liberal Democrat MP So you're blaming the civil service

:48:52.:49:04.

for everything and they are not emotionally attracted to Brexit, why

:49:05.:49:08.

do you have to be? Of course civil servants are impartial and are not

:49:09.:49:14.

blaming civil servants. You are. You're putting words in my mouth. I

:49:15.:49:19.

thought I was being rather tactful. Even by your standards. The problem

:49:20.:49:23.

was it was the Prime Minister of the day that forbade civil servants to

:49:24.:49:27.

make any preparations for a leave vote, and I am not admiring of the

:49:28.:49:33.

Cabinet Secretary who in fact kind of illicitly good and awayday with

:49:34.:49:36.

the permanent secretaries during the final weeks of the referendum

:49:37.:49:40.

campaign when nobody was looking in order to say if there is a leave

:49:41.:49:44.

vote what should we actually do? I am very pleased we have an impartial

:49:45.:49:48.

civil service that does not do what ministers and others want them to do

:49:49.:49:51.

if they think it is in the interest of the nation. You can't have it

:49:52.:49:54.

both ways, but you still haven't been what does it mean not

:49:55.:49:59.

emotionally attracted? I should imagine quite a lot more civil

:50:00.:50:04.

servants voted remain as opposed to leave, the thing that is a surprise.

:50:05.:50:09.

Listening to Bernard, I'm afraid my mind goes back to the fantastic yes

:50:10.:50:17.

Minister sketch where he says he had served 11 government in 30 years

:50:18.:50:20.

that if he had believed everything all his political masters had ever

:50:21.:50:23.

believed, he would have been in favour of going in and coming out of

:50:24.:50:28.

the common market. He would have been in favour of Keynesian economic

:50:29.:50:33.

is, they destroy and a preserve of grammar schools. He says Bob Wells,

:50:34.:50:37.

Bernard, not you obviously, above all else Bernard, he says, I would

:50:38.:50:41.

have been stark, staring, raving mad. That maybe so, but that is the

:50:42.:50:46.

impartiality of the civil servants. Do you think they should have had a

:50:47.:50:52.

nice big file that said Brexit plan? Vote to leave committee is the plan

:50:53.:50:57.

that will follow on 24th of June if they win? I will tell you exactly

:50:58.:51:01.

what I thought should have happened. Before a general election, months

:51:02.:51:07.

before, the main opposition party will go and see the civil servants

:51:08.:51:11.

in private and say this is our manifesto, this is what we would

:51:12.:51:14.

expect you to be able to implement if we were elected. And I think

:51:15.:51:18.

there is a very strong case for, even though a Leave campaign is not

:51:19.:51:23.

a prospective government, for there to have been formal engagement. Did

:51:24.:51:27.

you try? Now, it was absolutely off-limits! Did you have anything

:51:28.:51:33.

even to share them if you had got in contact? Yes, there was a very large

:51:34.:51:38.

volume produced by business for Britain could change or go, and you

:51:39.:51:40.

would have heard of it, and that went into a great deal of the detail

:51:41.:51:44.

that civil servants are having to now grapple with. There was a great

:51:45.:51:48.

deal of legal discussion amongst members of Parliament about what

:51:49.:51:54.

Article 50 meant and what would have to be negotiated, and how a free

:51:55.:51:57.

trade agreement might be constructed. And a great deal of

:51:58.:52:02.

work was done. But you did not have the opportunity. We always made it

:52:03.:52:07.

clear that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market. Lots of

:52:08.:52:10.

people said lots of different things. Now, we were very clear.

:52:11.:52:15.

Alistair Carmichael, if Bernard Jenkin is blaming the government of

:52:16.:52:21.

the day. His own government. Then should there have been preparation?

:52:22.:52:24.

Would it not have been a lot easier if there had been a proper look and

:52:25.:52:28.

investigation? Actually, now I don't. When I was in government and

:52:29.:52:33.

we were going through the Scottish referendum preparation we said we

:52:34.:52:35.

are not going to plan for something that we do not want to happen. This

:52:36.:52:40.

is not government policy, we will of course respect the outcome as indeed

:52:41.:52:43.

we did but we're not going to plan the something we do not want to

:52:44.:52:49.

happen. Bernard does have a point, though, in that since the 23rd of

:52:50.:52:51.

June there should have been planning, there should have been

:52:52.:52:56.

political dimension given to the civil service, and as a member of

:52:57.:53:01.

the select committee, meeting the senior management team a couple of

:53:02.:53:04.

weeks ago, it is painfully obvious that even now, five months down the

:53:05.:53:08.

line, none of that is happening. Do you think as an observer, Linda

:53:09.:53:13.

Yueh, that there was a plan? Do you think the government has an idea

:53:14.:53:15.

that it wants to do at this stage you not? I think there is probably

:53:16.:53:21.

different tools within government about what Brexit is when they say

:53:22.:53:25.

Brexit means Brexit, but I think the capacity timber and what they want

:53:26.:53:28.

is probably something that needs to Bielik that much more -- different

:53:29.:53:32.

views. We have not had trade negotiations for 40 years in

:53:33.:53:35.

government because that is done by the European Union. We don't have

:53:36.:53:39.

specialist lawyers, those who can advise us on how you get out for

:53:40.:53:45.

instance of current trade deals. Like the Canadians, they have

:53:46.:53:48.

negotiated a free-trade deal with the EU, they said they expect the UK

:53:49.:53:51.

to be in this trade deal but when we leave the EU they would want to

:53:52.:53:54.

discuss us keeping that trade deal on similar terms and I think that is

:53:55.:53:58.

the kind of expertise you cannot build up very quickly. Right, so

:53:59.:54:04.

there is a frantic chase to get new stuff and people on board and lots

:54:05.:54:10.

of money is being spent? Buried in the OBE are documents those a few

:54:11.:54:13.

bob in their meant for just the cost of admin of Brexit. So it will be

:54:14.:54:19.

costly. The sort of sea change that has been spoken about would not have

:54:20.:54:22.

been any more achievable if it had started in March rather than June.

:54:23.:54:25.

The alarming thing is that in November it still has not started

:54:26.:54:30.

yet. And in that sense if all of that money is going to be spent on

:54:31.:54:33.

some of your Brexit colleagues say it won't cost any more in terms of

:54:34.:54:37.

admin, it will cost a little bit more, do you think now there will be

:54:38.:54:41.

needed some serious investment in the rights of the people to deliver

:54:42.:54:45.

free-trade deals but Munster do? We will need to acquire, I'm in Canada

:54:46.:54:50.

has some hundreds of trade negotiators, and we will need to

:54:51.:54:53.

manage their trading relationships with the rest of the world and the

:54:54.:54:56.

United Kingdom will need a similar department, which is why the

:54:57.:55:00.

government has established a department for international trade,

:55:01.:55:03.

and it is taking time to build up that apartment -- department. But

:55:04.:55:07.

the civil service will have to adapt to, people tend to Allied order this

:55:08.:55:11.

into some great big messy plot. There are some things which the

:55:12.:55:15.

government needs to decide now, in preparation for negotiations and

:55:16.:55:19.

some things that actually need to be decided in the agreement. Most of

:55:20.:55:23.

what people are discussing is what to do after we have left. And still

:55:24.:55:28.

the question about whether it was clear on leaving or not? That is the

:55:29.:55:41.

next time. Michael Gove on the Andrew Marr programme made it

:55:42.:55:44.

absolutely clip. Stephen Phillips had to leave Parliament, it was that

:55:45.:55:45.

clear. There's just time before we go to

:55:46.:55:50.

find out the answer to our quiz. The question was: what was

:55:51.:55:53.

Nigel Farage photographed with last Was it a) Donald Trump's

:55:54.:55:56.

daughter, Ivanka? or d) a recently acquired

:55:57.:55:59.

American passport? So, Linda, what's

:56:00.:56:03.

the correct answer? And actually why haven't we got a

:56:04.:56:13.

nice big pile of fellow La Rochelle here? There we go, we have. He looks

:56:14.:56:18.

very pleased with himself, doesn't it? Well done, you got the right

:56:19.:56:23.

answer to stop hang on a second. I had better take this call.

:56:24.:56:28.

When is it OK to stop concentrating on what's happening around you,

:56:29.:56:31.

and start enjoying the world vicariously through your

:56:32.:56:33.

Well, yesterday, when Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell

:56:34.:56:39.

was delivering his very important response to Philip Hammond's Autumn

:56:40.:56:41.

Statement, it wasn't holding the full attention of Labour

:56:42.:56:43.

No fewer than 21 MPs sitting behind John McDonnell in the chamber can be

:56:44.:56:48.

seen fiddling with their mobile phones, instead of concentrating

:56:49.:56:50.

fully on what their esteemed colleague was saying.

:56:51.:56:56.

So was this a gross discourtesy to the Shadow Chancellor, or is it

:56:57.:56:59.

Who better to ask than etiquette coach, Jean Broke Smith?

:57:00.:57:09.

What you make of this image, they are all intensely looking at their

:57:10.:57:19.

messages. Horrified. I counted about 20. There was the Shadow Chancellor

:57:20.:57:23.

responding, and I don't know what they were doing, perhaps they

:57:24.:57:28.

were... Online shopping? Sorry be a little bit day-to-day. -- bit late.

:57:29.:57:35.

And they were spreading the Labour leadership is Mac message, which

:57:36.:57:38.

would have been a very important one on the day of the Autumn Statement,

:57:39.:57:42.

I suppose isn't that the waves of things are these days? We hope so.

:57:43.:57:46.

Mobile phones, as much as we need them, it has taken over our lives

:57:47.:57:50.

completely. You go to a restaurant and you never see to people having

:57:51.:57:54.

a, session. They are either under the table or they are actually

:57:55.:58:00.

speaking loudly. I mean something happened to me two days ago, I was

:58:01.:58:04.

walking down my road, just minding my end business, somebody was loudly

:58:05.:58:08.

speaking on the phone, waving the arms around, walked straight into me

:58:09.:58:11.

like that and look to me as if I should not have been on the

:58:12.:58:16.

pavement. Yes, do you think now we have lost sight of General courtesy,

:58:17.:58:20.

day-to-day manners when it comes to mobile phones? I think there was a

:58:21.:58:23.

lot of truth to that. In Parliament I think it is completely egregious.

:58:24.:58:29.

I know John McDonnell said they were treating up -- treating up messages

:58:30.:58:32.

but he also said public perception matters. I suppose it is not quite

:58:33.:58:37.

as bad as the Norwegian Prime Minister who was caught playing

:58:38.:58:40.

Pokemon Go on her mobile phone during a session of Parliament. I

:58:41.:58:45.

could not believe that at first. It was so extraordinary. I was just

:58:46.:58:50.

thinking this morning, about when Cameron was in five or six years

:58:51.:58:54.

ago, the band mobile phones from Cabinet meetings. I was asked what I

:58:55.:59:02.

thought and I said well done. But the Norwegian situation, I read it

:59:03.:59:08.

and thought this can't be. Pokemon Go and food ninja. Anyway, I am

:59:09.:59:16.

pleased to say we don't allow phones only for the particular purpose of

:59:17.:59:19.

that item. Thank you to all of our guests for coming in.

:59:20.:59:23.

The one o'clock news is starting over on BBC One now.

:59:24.:59:25.

Andrew will be here on BBC One tonight with Michael Portillo,

:59:26.:59:28.

Liz Kendall, Dan Hodges, Tim Shipman, John Nicolson

:59:29.:59:30.

and Stewart Lee joining on This Week from 11.45pm.

:59:31.:59:32.

And the Daily Politics will be back at noon tomorrow with all the big

:59:33.:59:36.

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