24/02/2017 Daily Politics


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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.


Jeremy Corbyn enters his own winter as Copland lose the by-election to


the Conservatives. UKIP's leader Paul Nuttall failed


in his attempt to win the other seat up for grabs last night in Stoke -


despite a fall in Labour's We've got reaction and analysis


of last night's results. Also on today's programme -


we look at the prospects for power-sharing in Stormont


after the snap elections And is the drive to get more women


working in science putting unnecessary pressure on girls


at school? All that in the next hour


and with us for the whole of the programme today,


the Guardian's Rafael Behr, and Cristina Odone from


the Legatum Institute. So - it was a by-election night that


both Labour and UKIP In the Cumbrian constituency


of Copeland - held by Labour for eighty years -


Jeremy Corbyn's party suffered a historic defeat


to the Conservatives. The Conservative candidate,


Trudy Harrison, was elected Compared to the 2015 general


election, the Conservative share of the vote increased by 8% -


a huge achievement, given that governing parties normally


struggle in by-elections. Usually their share of the vote goes


down. In fact it's the first time


since 1982 that a governing party It was a different story for Labour


- their vote was down by 5% compared to 2015,


meaning that their candidate Third and fourth place went


to the Liberal Democrats The Lib Dem vote was up by 4%


while UKIP's vote fell by 9%. In Stoke the Labour candidate,


Gareth Snell, staved off the UKIP challenge -


winning the seat with 7,853 The Labour vote was


actually down 2% on 2015. The UKIP leader, Paul Nuttall,


came second with 5,233 votes. The UKIP vote was up by 2%,


but they were hoping for a much bigger swing in order


to win the seat. The Conservatives came


a very close third. Their candidate got just 79


fewer votes than UKIP. And in fourth place


we have the Liberal Democrats. Just like in Copeland, their vote


here in Stoke-on-Central went up, compared to the general


election in 2015. Jeremy Corbyn has been taking


questions from the media at an event in london this morning -


including our reporter Mark Lobel. REPORTER: Mr Corbyn,


is defeat in Copeland a disaster I've been talking to people


there this morning. We campaigned to win it back,


we campaigned to deliver for the people of Copeland


the health service Theresa May has not given any


guarantees whatsoever We can and we will,


and we will deliver an NHS for all. We are the party that founded


the NHS, we are the party that believes in health care free


at the point of use That was the Labour leader's


reaction. Speaking after the result


was announced in Stoke, the UKIP leader said


he was disappointed, but... This seat was number


72 on our hit list. There's a lot more


which will happen. We are not going anywhere,


I am not going anywhere. So therefore we move


on and our time will come. The Conservative Party Chairman,


Patrick McLoughlin, gave his reaction to the result


in Copeland this morning: Well, I think we've had a very good


candidate in Trudy Harrison who has been a superb candidate and now


Member of Parliament I think the leadership


which the Prime Minister has given since she's become Prime Minister,


and the clear way in which she said she wants to look at the issues


which face the United Kingdom For them to lose a seat


to the governing party, And that is a show of the way


in which the Labour Party is just out of contact


with what people are thinking. That is some of the reaction to last


night's two by-elections. In Westminster people are still trying


to come to terms with what it all means. Clearly a significant event


in British politics. We will do more of that in the next hour on the


Daily Politics give me your initial reaction to this. Copland and Stokes


are different seats. The one thing that overwhelmingly comes across if


you campaign to there is that Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour


Party, made it harder in Stoke. People felt they were lucky Paul


Nuttall threw away an opportunity, that he had a stronger chance at the


beginning of the campaign. Adding Copland, traditional Labour


supporters, were saying on the doorstep to campaigners, you are


insulting us with this man. -- and in Copeland. They said that he


doesn't appear to want it. Anybody who campaigned for Labour in either


of those seats will have come back under no illusions that the big


problem for the party is that they have a leader nobody will ever make


Prime Minister. Big implications for Labour. Conservatives delighted to


win Copeland. De Paul not all throw this away? Absolutely. -- did Paul


Nuttall. They were overwhelmingly in favour of Paul Nuttall there. They


wanted to show that even though Ukip at won the referendum they still


wanted to show they have something at its core. It wasn't forthcoming.


I think he lost it, really. Last night, a crisis for the Labour


Party. And Ukip. Certainly, people were saying, I spoke to people this


morning who said that at the beginning of February they were


worried Paul Nuttall would take the seat. But somebody described it as


an anti-UKIP firewall in Stoke and it stops them cutting through.


Christine is right, they are struggling to find a purpose.


Theresa May deserves credit for this. It takes somebody to win a


by-election as well as lose it. The fact people are expressing, whatever


it is they are expressing by voting Conservative, we are used to saying


there is this antiestablishment insurgency, well, hang on a moment,


the people are voting for the vicar's daughter and taking the seat


away from a Labour stronghold that it has been the years. Outside the


very wealthy, the Richmonds in Yorkshire, the shire areas, Copeland


is not one of those areas. It is an average income constituency. It has


problems of low pay, not naturally fertile Conservative territory. And


that is why I totally agree with you. It has been an extraordinary


victory. Not only for the Conservatives but for Theresa May. I


would not be surprised if this absolutely gives her the surge, the


kind of emboldening effect that come who knows, snap election? No, do you


think so? It is extraordinary. -- that, who knows. It is her style.


But they will be looking at the numbers in Westminster. If Jeremy


Corbyn stays he has a get out of jail free card. One Tory MPs said to


me last night that the longer Mr Corbyn remains lead at the Labour


Party, they thought the more damage would be done, and the longer it


would take Labour to ever recover. It was they, kind of, brutal


approach to things. Because the Labour brand starts to suffer.


Starts? Let's be honest. The more liberal minded former remaining MPs


were desperate for Labour to recover. They are saying we need the


Labour Party to be on our side so that we have some threat to hang


over the Prime Minister, saying you've got to give us more of what


we want. That is the view in London. Our correspondent Iain Watson


is in Whitehaven, in the heart The one that produced such a massive


upset last night. It is the morning after the night before, give us a


postmortem. I suppose it is. Calm after the


storm. A closely fought election campaign, as you know, Andrew. I was


told before midnight last night that Labour had lost. But the scale of


the loss is quite surprising. They were hoping that the NHS campaign


would have stemmed it but it wasn't the case. There are three


interlinked problems. The first and most serious is trust. Jeremy Corbyn


said what people wanted to hear. He said he was in favour of new nuclear


capacity. A shift from him and his campaign in 2015. Sellafield is the


biggest employer. There are problems over a new potential capacity at


Moorside. He said that. People didn't trust him. The second thing


is Jeremy Corbyn himself. There are Labour MPs out knocking on the


doorsteps. They were saying that prompted his leadership came up and


not in a good way. And the third, a slightly interesting one, which I've


been finding out this morning, which is that Jeremy Corbyn is railing


against the establishment. The outsider come if you like. But here


he was seen as part of the problem. The town is rundown, Labour's done


nothing about it. He was coming across as incumbent. You out those


problems together, it doesn't bode well for the next general election,


a swing against Labour here would lose them a further 50 seats. What


on earth do they do now is to mark they have had a vote of no


confidence in him. -- what on earth do they do now? I'm glad to see that


Storm Doris has disappeared and there is sunshine behind you. Such a


significant result last night there. The other important constituency, in


the Midlands, Stoke, neighbour got a reduced share of the vote and Ukip


was probably as big a story as anything else. There were more


cameras on Paul Nuttall after the result than there were on the Labour


candidate who had won and become MP. Our assistant political editor


Norman Smith is in Stoke. Give us your latest on the mood now


in Stoke. Some comfort for Labour in Stoke,


not just because they won but they managed to repulse the perceived


threat of Ukip. Many Labour MPs are drawing a huge sigh of relief. There


was a view that Ukip were poised to due to labour in the North exactly


what happened in Scotland. That is a big plus. For Ukip, you must say


that it is a bad result, however you cut it. Although they are saying


this is their 72nd target seat, it was a dirty campaign. Labour threw


everything at it. Make no mistake, this was a pretty much must win for


Ukip. Remember, Nigel Farage pretty much said as much. He said it was a


fundamental that Paul Nuttall won here. He hasn't. He didn't get close


to winning in a big pro Brexit seat. And it raises a number of questions.


One, where on earth did Ukip go now? Theresa May has consolidated the


Tory party. It's difficult to see Ukip making any further inroads into


the Tory vote. Paul Nuttall's big idea was to hoover up fragmented


disintegrated Labour voters. This is the sort of seat which should have


been a prime target for him to do exactly that. Yet it simply hasn't


happened. There is much more of a problem, and that is, what is the


point of Ukip? We have had the referendum. People voted for Brexit.


Theresa May is going full steam ahead with it, why do you need Ukip?


And I'm not entirely sure they have an answer. We have covered Ukip for


many years. I think we know enough. There is going to be a pretty bloody


and nasty postmortem on this campaign. And Paul Nuttall will be


in the eye of the storm on this, do you agree?


It is not just Ukip which has taken a big hit, Paul Nuttall as leader.


He has suffered a really damaging few weeks which I think will last.


It is hard to see him recovering his sense of drive, ambition and


confidence for the party. The more you look at Ukip, I am


increasingly of the view Nigel Farage was what gave them their


whole momentum. Without him, they have struggled from people who have


been elected leader then chucked it in, people who did not want to be


leader, the person who is leader but could not make progress. Without


Nigel Farage, their central mission of Brexit, they are really beginning


to struggle. I wonder whether their fate is like that of so many


minority parties, they have their moment, then they go into terminal


decline. Thank you. Let us get more labour


reaction. We've been joined now


by the Labour MP John Woodcock whose constituency of Barrow


and Furness is next What are your Parliamentary Labour


colleagues saying? Some are saying Copeland is marginal, it is no big


deal you lost it? No, it isn't. Now, and I don't think


it does anybody any favours to downplay what has happened here.


This needs to be a massive rocket to the Labour Party.


And to everyone in it. This is a seat which we have been blessed with


as returned Labour MPs since the 1930s. And was actually the seat


which recorded the biggest swing to Labour after eight years of a Labour


Government in 2005 and maintained a very big majority in 2010 despite


taking in Tory leaning Keswick. This is an earthquake. It is a


terrible reversal for us. We all need to see it as such.


Trying to say, oh, well, it was all very difficult, or it was simply one


single issue, nuclear, just ignores the fact we are, for the Labour


Party, we are in an historically vulnerable and parlous position now.


We are trailing in the polls in a way which would have been


unthinkable midterm against a Government which is frankly flailing


around on the issue of exiting the EU, which it did by mistake against


its own wishes, as a Government. So, you know, we have to understand the


seriousness of this and do better. Look, it was a Labour held seat, and


as you say had been for a long time. A by-election with a Conservative


Government in power, that is usually hugely to the opposition's advantage


in a by-election. The election was fought on Jeremy Corbyn's chosen


political weapon, the NHS. And yet you at that altogether and you still


lost. Why? Well, I wouldn't use the word,


weapon. Let us dwell for a moment on the West Cumberland Hospital. This


is a community in Whitehaven which is similar to mine in Barrow and


Furness, which has its hospital, has a maternity unit and accident and


emergency which is seen as under threat. The alternative is to travel


on very difficult road for many miles.


I understand that, we have covered all that.


So it was a strong case, you had a strong candidate with experience of


the NHS. My point is, he still lost. Well, yes, indeed. Well... No one


can ignore the issue of leadership. It would be fatuous to do so. I


don't think anyone, I hope, is suggesting that it wasn't an issue


on the doorstep. But I think it is important that when we are deciding


as a party what we do next, that we don't simply pin this all on one,


this is not about the competence or capabilities of one individual at


the top. This is about the direction of the party, and people currently


do not think that the direction we have set is making us a credible


opposition at what is such a fundamentally important time for the


future of our country. And that has to be a wake up call, or we will be


suffering possibly an existential white out at the next general


election. John MacDonald, the Shadow


Chancellor, confident of Jeremy Corbyn. He says is people like you


who are to blame for this. And Tony Blair. And Peter Mandelson. They


give all these interviews. And they make all the speeches. It puts


across the impression the -- Labour is deeply divided, no-confidence in


the leader. People don't like divided political parties which is


why we are not doing so well. You are part of the problem rather than


the solution is what he is saying. Well, I did listen to some of what


Mr McDonald, our Shadow Chancellor, said this morning. I was a little


puzzled by his description of Labour having been disunited of late. For


all of the obviously well-publicised difficulties in the summer, what you


have seen since Jeremy wants his real election leadership campaign is


a real willingness by people who of course have had real misgivings, but


we have all united exactly as he is calling us to do now. The issue is


not unity in the party. It is direction, or lack of direction. And


I really hope that John MacDonald and Jeremy and everyone else who


claims that we will be able to close a polling gap by the end of the


year. I say, great, to that, but it is time now rather than blaming


people who left the political scene ten years ago, to set out how we


will do that as a party now. Thank you for joining us.


Joining us now from Newcastle is Labour's campaigns and


Thank you for joining us. The daily Mirror is probably your biggest,


Labour's biggest ally on Slate Street, solid Labour supporting


tabloid newspaper. Its editorial today reads, the two words which


best described by devastated Labour humiliatingly lost the northern


stronghold are Jeremy and Corbyn. What do you say?


Listen, this wasn't in any way an election on the leadership of the


Labour Party but a by-election in Copeland on the coast will stop and


the two main issues in Copeland where the NHS, and, indeed, the


nuclear industry. It wasn't a ballot or indication on whether Jeremy


Corbyn should or should not be the leader of the Labour Party. Jeremy


Corbyn is a leader of one of the biggest is not the biggest political


parties in Europe, we have got nearly 600,000 members.


What is the point of having all these members if you cannot win a


by-election in ACTU have held since 1935?


We have held it since 1934. Let me tell you I am absolutely


disappointed to say the least with the result in Copeland last night. I


will be knocking on the doors in Copeland. I have had some positive


and negative responses. I have been speaking to people, they have been


fabulous. It is a real problem in areas like Copeland, they feel


disenfranchised from politics, they feel left behind by politicians.


Jeremy Corbyn wasn't something that cropped up on the doorstop when I


was visiting Copeland. It was the fact it was a distrust in


politicians. So why did they vote tall green --


vote Tory if they distrust politicians?


We have democratic process voting for what they thought was in their


best interest. They won by just over 2000 votes. That is the Democratic


recess. What they do distrust is Labour and


Jeremy Corbyn which is why the first time in living memory they have


elected a non-Labour MP. I certainly do not share those


views. I assure you that is being spewed out in the media but this is


focused on why everybody should -- but we should focus on the facts


Jeremy Corbyn is one of the most popular politicians in the country


at this time. The issues in Copeland were about the jobs, and about the


economy. People were worried about those. And


it was about the NHS. Both Mr Corbyn and your candidate, a doctor and an


added as driver, knows a lot about the NHS, by all accounts fought a


good campaign, put the NHS at the heart of the campaign, it is meant


to be the issue for you and Mr Corbyn. And you still lost, you lost


big. So what went wrong? What went wrong


is the fact that the people in Copeland, like many constituencies


up and down the country, feel let down and left behind by the


politicians in Westminster. And what people were looking for at the


election, what they voted for, what they saw as secure enjoyment in the


nuclear industry, a future for themselves and their children. That,


in many ways, outshone the problems they have got with regards to the


founding NHS in that area. When you look at it, the issue in Copeland


was by and large uniquely to do with the nuclear industry. Let us say it


once more, the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, did, and we were the only


party prepared to underwrite the future of the new nuclear facility,


and also we did say that we were desperate to ensure the nuclear


industry continued in a balanced portfolio for the future for this


country. We supported it. Unfortunately, the people in


Copeland chose not to accept the views of the Labour Party.


They didn't believe you, didn't trust you, because Jeremy Corbyn


said in 2011, I say no nuclear power, not just that, decommission


the stations we have got. That is what Mr Corbyn really thinks, that


is what he has fought his whole life about nuclear power. They did not


trust your leader on an issue which is of vital importance to the people


of Copeland. It is an absolute critical


importance for the people of Copeland and that is why the Labour


Party gave that undertaking. The Labour Party... Theresa May was


asked on her visit whether she would give an undertaking with regard to


the future of nuclear. She refused to do so on numerous questions. We


did, we get that undertaking as a party.


They didn't believe you. It is Labour Party policy to support


Trident, to support the nuclear industry.


Yes, but the problem people have and it goes to the heart of


Labourconundrum is you say it is Labour Party policy to support


Trident, to support nuclear power generation, and everybody knows your


leader does not believe in either. It is not a credible position to


have policies that you stand for, and a leader who spends his whole


life opposing them. And that is why the people of Copeland would not


vote for your party for the first time in four generations.


I'll say it again because you are continually ignoring the reality of


the democratic process within the Labour Party. The conference decides


policy, the conference decides the direction of the Labour Party. And


the Labour Party Conference supports the nuclear industry. They agreed


nuclear has a role to play in a balanced energy portfolio.


But your leader... Your leader has only changed because he has had to.


Your leader has always been against it, and those are his true views.


Jeremy Corbyn has been consistent on many things the 35 years, why would


he change his mind on this? That is why people don't trust him. In


Copeland, people thought you were saying this because you wanted to


get elected and they did not trust you. They didn't trust the party


that they had always made their representatives in Parliament. It is


a seismic change. I think it is a lot deeper than


that, Andrew. As I said earlier, there's lots of problems in


constituencies up and down the country where politicians and the


general public seem to be disenfranchised. The real issue is


jobs and the economy in these constituencies and we have got to


listen, we had to decide policies for the future, look at what is


happening in Copeland and Stoke, to have a clear assessment on how we go


forward. Can you remember a worse by-election


result the Labour than this one? To me, if you lose a by-election by


one vote, it is a disaster. I am not saying anything other than that.


Can you remember a worse one? I am of a firm view we should have


retained Copeland. I am not trying to say anything other. We didn't. We


have to learn from it and go forward. We have too tried to regain


the likes of constituencies like Copeland and earned the trust of the


people, ensure we have policies which are quite distinct from other


parties. We don't have the divine right, no political party has, to


survive. We have got to have the right policies, distinct, different,


bold, imaginative, to reach the hearts of people up and down this


country. A big challenge we face. You are at 27%. What is all of that


rhetoric? You've got -- that's got nothing to do with it. You face an


existential crisis, one of your own Labour MPs has said that, and you


were going on about things like that when your poll ratings continue to


die and you cannot even win the Copeland by-election! -- dive. I'm


not blustering. I'm talking about the issues facing real people. But


it does not sound like they are listening. The reality is that


people in this country are living in despair, frightened of them are good


jobs, frightened about the failed economy, they want a future which


the politicians would listen to and develop in the future. That is our


promise. I'm sorry if you disagree with that. It is not a matter of


disagreeing it is what the people think. If they are so frightened and


jobs are an issue in Coupland, no question, the NHS was an issue, they


are frightened of these things. The Labour Party have tried to make this


an issue but they are still not voting for you, what you do for an


encore? -- Copeland. The intention of this interview is to damage the


leader of the Labour Party. I'm not talking to you about Jeremy Corbyn's


future. We will get in and listen to the views of the people, listen to


their concerns, change their future in terms of despair to hope. We will


begin to deliver what they want by listening to what they say, rather


than the other way around. We have fantastic policies. We are in the


process of developing some brilliant policies, which I hope will address


the many needs of the very many people up and down this country. I


know it's been a long night for everybody. Thank you for your time


and for joining us there at the BBC in the north-east. What do you make


of what you have heard? I thought that was crucifixion. Pour him, that


was hard. Of course he is wrong, this is about Corbyn. For all the


blustering and, you know, the last-minute U-turns, Jeremy Corbyn


is an unreconstructed, antinuclear, anti-EU, anti-everything, kind of


man. And the people have spoken. They don't trust. They don't think


he wants to be a leader. They don't see him as a leader. There was a


problem in Copeland because the nuclear issue. But what they think


is broadly in line with the rest of the UK. It is not just a Copeland


issue, or a Jeremy Corbyn issue, either. Social Democratic parties


across Europe, including the Democrat in the US, most of them are


in trouble. I thought that's right. And the interview was interesting.


People in the Labour Party have learnt the lesson from last year


when they went after Jeremy Corbyn. They attacked him after the


referendum because they were so frustrated. They thought his


leadership was dire. They had one bullet in the chamber, they fired


it, Jeremy Corbyn was still leader, and they also antagonised many of


the people who supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought he was brilliant,


he was their choice of leader. He demonstrated that they sort of


understood that. But there are still members of the Labour Party who


still want the Jeremy Corbyn project to work. But also, there is not much


point in removing Jeremy Corbyn if you don't address the important


issue of what is a party of the Centre left do in the 21st century


when all of the industrialists who have always supported the Labour


Party and labour movement across party, the nature of the economy and


infrastructure has changed. It isn't obvious what they call social


Democratic politician looks like any more. -- what a core. There is


really who is articulating that answer. But they know that the


answer isn't Jeremy Corbyn. The Greek Socialist party has been


pretty much wiped out. The Italian one has... Germany might have a


chance. The French Socialists are about to be wiped out. The German


social Democrats may have been given a new lease of life by their new


candidate and Angela Merkel is on the back foot. But that seems like a


change of personnel rather than a change of policy. Britain isn't


alone in working out what they stand for. They are quite common problems.


One of them seems to be a big gap between what became the common sort


of, I hate this term, but Metropolitan, liberal steering


committee of the left, and the, sort of, storm trooper basis of


industrial working class which always drove the labour movement


forward through trade unions. You need that coalition to form power.


But culturally those two constituencies have driven further


apart. Between Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn's leaderships, they


have broken up completely. In Stoke Labour played the Patriot Lock card.


And was is holding its nose. Because on their leaflet they had a Saint


Georges flag. -- patriotic card. The industrial left on the centre-left


does not stand for the patriotism which is common in the working


class. Absolutely. The old working-class socialist


parties in France are going to Marine Le Pen. This isn't happening


as much in Germany because the antibodies and inoculation between


nationalism and Germany is so much stronger. Of course. Well, that's


labour, let's turn to Ukip. We did ask for an interview from one of


them spokes people -- we did ask an interview from one of their


spokespeople but they did not want to.


The former Ukip leader Diane James is with us now.


She was in charge for 18 days last autumn before


Because of Copeland label was a loser last night. It did win Stoke.


Much relief there. The other big story was Ukip and Paul Nuttall.


What is your question? I would like you to comment. Paul has gone


through a horrible experience. He has gone through a tough learning


curve. He has seen first-hand, experienced it first hand, the


issues Nigel faced all the time he was trying to get into Westminster.


What I don't doubt happened was that Labour was absolutely focused on


assuring Ukip didn't take Stoke. I think they sacrificed Copeland as a


result. In doing so they had three strands to their focus. One, they


had to stop Ukip in the West Midlands. Two, they had to undermine


Paul as leader of Ukip. Three, they had to undermine him personally.


They have achieved all three of those. I don't believe they have


undermined him fatally. I don't expect Paul to resign. I don't want


to see that. Knives will be out for him. I don't think so. Nigel said


that he had to win that. One of the biggest bankroll is said he wasn't a


fan of Paul Nuttall. OK... His leadership must be under question.


First, I am now an independent, I am no longer a Ukip member. To refer to


your situation, giving me the possessive doesn't apply to stop


Nigel made some statements. I don't think to suddenly infer from those


statements that Paul should fall on his sword just because of the result


that came out of Stoke. But it has been a bruising experience for him.


Indeed. He was fighting on all fronts. In many cases he was his own


worst enemy. And labour were out to do him. It wouldn't be surprising if


he decided he did not want to go on. Possibly, but I don't think that is


going to happen. Paul has stood to lead the party. He has achieved one


fundamental aim. He has unified the party. By this experience he has


identified that this has come at a cost. Maybe there will be casualties


in terms of the team he has around him, who you will be reviewing this


result with over the weekend, over the coming days, and a side may be


some new faces need to be brought in. Maybe some new approaches need


to come in. The good thing, from my point of view, as an observer, an


independent observer, is he's gone through a tough call. He hasn't


achieved his aim. But he has learnt a lot. And so has the party. As an


independent, I emphasise, they will go forward with this. Except even in


the good times Ukip has had the ability to rip itself to pieces. Now


that it is going through some bad times, that propensity to rip itself


to pieces must surely be enhanced. I don't think it goes anywhere near to


what the Labour Party is doing. Labour hasn't gone through the


number of leaders you have. I'll go back to my point. Paul, in the last


few months, has brought the party together. We haven't heard the


narrative. The media tried to portray that the party wasn't


unified, that people were smiting, stabbing each other in the back, I


think he's done a good job there. What he is now seeing. He will learn


from this experience. Where does he need to move on the chessboard the


people around him so this doesn't happen again. Let's put this into


perspective. Even I understand the comment he made. This was 72nd on


the list of targets. The risk he took was high risk. Why did he


stand, then? He must be ruing the day, thinking that was a misguided


risk. But that is the benefit of hindsight, Andrew. It was possible


to win. Given the high Brexit vote within the constituency. Given,


although there had been problems with the Labour candidate, he was a


Remain politician and his tweets were embarrassing. One of the


reasons Paul was elected, he had to win over working-class voters


disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn, Brexit voters, and he had to get


Tories to vote tactically to put labour out. Neither happened. It was


a total strategic failure. I'm not going to agree that it was a total


strategic failure. It wasn't a good outcome. I'm going to sit here and


appreciate that point honestly. Let's go back to some clear markers.


Just as you just put some down. Labour through the book at Stoke. It


was strategically so pivotal to them they had to keep it. But that is


what happens at by-elections. Paul made mistakes. Politicians do that.


When it came down to it, the tactical voting you just explained


did not happen. You can put into context that some of the issues


surrounding Paul's campaign contributed to that. I've heard


comments that Hillsborough was being raised on the doorsteps. But going


forward, all of that is now in the public domain, Paul has time to


recoup, reenergise himself. Has he? I believe so. It is my instinct that


this weekend knives will be out for him. The Sunday papers, in


particular, what do you think,? What Ukip have consistency lacked --


consistently lack is a message. Nigel Farage could get some support


but could not win a seat. Labour have the rusty machine. But when


they start it up it does get people out. It is a practical problem for


Ukip. But it points to the question, what is the purpose of this party


now that Theresa May has given people who have voted for them in


the past exactly what they want? Absolutely right. What Theresa May


has done with her heart Brexit, she has moved her tanks into Paul


Michael's garden, yard, whatever you want, the territory. -- into Paul


Nuttall's. I don't think the Prime Minister has made her position clear


on whether it is a hard or soft Brexit at all. I think it needs to


be a clean Brexit. You could interpret that as hard. She hasn't,


Angie. If we have the detail that would signify either soft or hard,


the movements and criticism won't be going on. -- Andrew. What hasn't she


told you that you want to know? I have no idea what her position is on


the ECJ. She has made it clear that if she gets her way we will not be


under the jurisdiction of it. She hasn't. She has given us a topline


comment. She hasn't given us the detail. We still don't know what


will happen with freedom of movement of people, services and goods. We


don't know what will happen to European citizens here. She is in a


bargaining situation led by the EU in terms of... You are dancing on


the head of a pin on this. I'm not. Even staunch Tory Eurosceptics


disagree... You have illustrated what Ukip's real problem is right


now. Because it is clear that Tory inclined Ukip voters, those who were


Tories and have now moved to Ukip, they are pretty much back in the


Tory fold now. They have confidence in Theresa May. Ukip cannot attract


those Labour voters they were hoping to get. You're not getting votes


from the Tories or Labour. I can't comment on Ukip strategy.


What I have seen happen in the last few weeks is two clear by elections.


Labour absolutely focused on taking out Paul and Ukip. The Tories gave


them a free rein, the Tories once they have destroyed Labour will then


switch to Ukip. At the moment Labour is taking on that mantle.


I am just seeing pictures of the Prime Minister who has arrived in


Copeland, and the Conservative candidate, now the new Members of


Parliament for Copeland is standing beside her on the left of the


screen. Let us hear what she is saying.


The Conservative Party will deliver the people across the whole country,


a country that works for everyone, not just the privileged fruit, and


Trudy will be a fantastic MP, delivering for the people of


Copeland -- not just the privileged few.


A wonderful victory. Please, I am sure you have something to say to


people. CHEERING Well, I would really like


to take this opportunity to thank the people of Copeland the voting


for me, having faith in and also for the volunteers who have travelled to


help us when this historic election. I am ruling looking forward to


getting on with the job and very much looking forward to going down


to London on Monday and making sure we deliver on the plan I have been


pledging for the last four weeks. Thank you very much, Copeland.


CHEERING There we go, Trudy Harrison, the new member of


Parliament, Conservative Members of Parliament for Copeland, with the


Prime Minister who has gone up to bathe in the glory of her victory.


Apparently she went to bed and was awoken by a text that the


Conservatives had one Copeland. She was so excited by her standards,


that she woke her husband. I am sure she was, he was very grateful.


That was a real display of expression.


Next week voters in Northern Ireland return to the polls for the second


The snap election was triggered when Sinn Fein announced it would no


longer work with the DUP in the power-sharing executive,


following a scandal involving subsidies for renewable energy.


Like all good scandals, it's got several catchy names.


The idea was to increase Northern Ireland's consumption


But it ended up meaning businesses like, say,


this Ferrari dealership on the outskirts of Belfast,


It has landed the taxpayer with an unexpected bill


Oh, and it brought down the Government.


Also, it seems, watchers of Stormont see the scandal more


This isn't just about a heating scandal, there is much to it.


The RHI scandal, the renewable heat incentive, is a political


opportunity, a smokescreen for larger issues


Things like the Irish Language Act, the broader equality context.


And trying to make sure their supporters don't feel the DUP


This is an opportunity for Sinn Fein to redress that.


The Northern Ireland Assembly was established


following a referendum on the Good Friday


Sinn Fein were part of power-sharing from the start.


As a result, the DUP refused to take part,


accusing the British Government and the unionists of


Nevertheless, the executive operated for several years.


But stumbled repeatedly over how to deal with the past.


After four years' suspension and direct rule from Westminster,


the St Andrew's Agreement in 2006 set out a timetable


I affirm the terms of the pledge of office.


With power shared by the largest parties, the polar opposites


If your definition of working is, does it keep


Does it work in the sense of frequently passing legislation


that has a profound impact on the lives Northern


Probably not, because not an awful lot gets done.


It divides on the one side the Protestant Shankhill area


and on the other side the Catholic Falls community.


Now, those two communities are still largely separate,


But, while divisions here are not as stark


or as violent as they used to be, it's also unlikely many voters


will change their allegiances in the next election.


Do you think anything will change after the election?


No, probably not, just the same people.


It needs somebody to work it all out.


I don't think this will do any good, I don't think it will change.


They will fight about something else.


This will be the second election they get to vote in,


Not exactly a sign of healthy politics but it could be a good


Something massive happens and then we take a step forward.


Something sounds quite bad, so we have a scandal,


We have another agreement around a set of issues.


Legacy issues have been rumbling on for years.


They've nearly been agreed two, three times.


This perhaps is the opportunity to actually make that happen.


After the election, the main parties have three weeks to form


a power-sharing government and agree a way forward.


If they don't, there could be another election or a period


So, the stakes are high, when Northern Ireland goes


And we've been joined from Belfast by our Northern Ireland political


Is there not a danger that the people of Northern Ireland go to the


polls and they end up producing roughly the same result as before


they went to the polls, and doesn't resolve anything?


How will that work out? It is entirely possible we might


have a similar balance of power at Stormont after these elections as


before. It seems quite a long way to go for the opposition parties on


either side of the divide here, the Ulster Unionists or the SDLP, to


overtake either the DUP or Sinn Fein. There might be a little bit of


change in terms of the balance of power in as much as the DUP might


lose its ability to veto anything it doesn't


like. But it seems a long shot for any


kind of a wholesale change to the system here. That means we could


have some difficult talks on the other side of this election. Once


the election is out of the way, we know the results, the new members


take their seats, the process is they then sit down again to try and


recreate a power-sharing Government, that is how it works?


That is right. We have a three-week timetable after this election the


them to once again vote in a first and Deputy First Minister which they


need to, to get devolution up and running properly here.


Most people are sceptical as to whether they can do that because


Sinn Fein has specified in particular that the DUP leader


Arlene Foster at the centre of this storm over the so-called renewable


heat scandal, they don't want to share power with her until an


inquiring which will take at least six months has concluded into this.


That means it is really hard to imagine they will be able to piece


it together in three weeks which is why there is a lot of expectation we


may end up having a period of direct rule with Westminster appointing


ministers running day-to-day affairs here.


I got the impression from the report, I may be wrong, tell me,


that the people in Northern Ireland haven't got much enthusiasm for this


election, is that right or is it unfair?


I certainly think they did get interested in the renewable heat


scandal because when that was explained in the autumn to them,


everybody immediately added it up in relation to that. So there was a lot


of interest in that. It is an uncertain question whether we will


have turnout going down because the voters, 1.2 million of them, will


say, a plague on their houses, or whether the anger particularly over


the renewable heat scandal will manifest itself in an increased


turnout. Thank you for being with us today.


We have had a statement from Nigel Farage to the result instead, he


says the party message on immigration wasn't strong enough in


Stoke which I guess is an interdict attack on Paul Nuttall. He says the


campaign wasn't targeted as well as it could have been or tough enough


with immigration policy. He said the Ukip current leader, the party


candidates, in Stoke had a tough time and finished in a tough


position. But he says he will get through it. He says Mr Knott also


has his full support and was the right person to lead Ukip. -- Says


Paul Nuttall still has his full support.


He also says people currently trust Theresa May on Brexit. A little


different from what Diane James was saying.


Nigel Farage was speaking from Washington, not in the north-east of


England, but another Washington. Washington, DC.


Time now for our look back at the political week -


The PM swept into Parliament on Monday, but she wasn't heading


Theresa May perched on the steps of the throne to listen to peers


debating the bill to withdraw from the EU.


Later, protesters gathered outside Parliament to demonstrate


Inside, MPs debated the petition calling for his state


We are seven days into his presidency.


He is invited to have the full panoply of a state visit.


On Tuesday, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said


the UK would face a very hefty bill for leaving the EU.


The talking point at Prime Minister's Questions wasn't


the May-Corbyn exchanges, but the peformance by Labour's


And finally, Copeland went Tory after more than 80 years in the red.


But Labour held on to Stoke Central, seeing off a challenge from the Ukip


Thanks to Cristina, Rafael and all my guests.


The One O'Clock News is starting over on BBC One now.


I'll be back on Sunday with the Sunday Politics


Donald Trump's first 100 days in the White House


are defining how he'll deal with the rest of the world.


the UK is stepping up the formal business of Brexit.


As the new President strives to deliver


on his promise to put America first...


..Prime Minister Theresa May is setting out


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