20/06/2017 Daily Politics


20/06/2017

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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:39.:00:40.

The Chancellor Philip Hammond says Britain is 'weary' of austerity

:00:41.:00:42.

and promises he will pursue stronger economic growth to pay

:00:43.:00:45.

David Davis promises he'll deliver a Brexit deal "like no other

:00:46.:00:51.

in history" after his first formal meeting with the EU's chief

:00:52.:00:54.

Ahead of the state opening of parliament tomorrow,

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Theresa May continues to negotiate a deal with the DUP to get her plans

:01:04.:01:06.

We'll take a look at what's likely to make the cut

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It's Ed Miliband, I'm sitting in for Jeremy Vine.

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And Ed Miliband moonlights as a DJ on Radio 2 -

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we'll review the former leader of the Labour Party's

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We are joined by a radio critic and fellow broadcaster Nigel Farage.

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and with us for the whole of the programme today

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the businessman and former minister in Gordon Brown's

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So, this morning the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has been

:01:45.:01:55.

giving his assessment of the economic picture

:01:56.:01:57.

Mr Hammond made it clear he wants to put the economy at the heart

:01:58.:02:02.

of the Brexit negotiations but he also talked of the need

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for his government to convince the public that they should trust

:02:05.:02:07.

the Conservatives with the nation's finances ...

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Stronger growth is the only sustainable way to deliver

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better public services, higher real wages and

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I thought we'd won that argument, but I learned in the general

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But we must make anew the case for a market economy

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And we need to explain again how stronger growth must be delivered

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Do you agree with Philip Hammond that the Tories failed to make a

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case for a rising economy, hence the support for the Labour Party.

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Absolutely right, I was amazed at the appalling campaign, how they

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didn't start saying, we can't be trusted with the economy, they

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cannot and it's the old classic way of campaigning and they ignored it

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completely. -- we can. If you don't have businesses investing in its

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people and its kit we -- you will not achieve productivity

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enhancement, you will not compete in the world, you will not make money

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and if you don't make money you don't pay tax, if you don't pay taxi

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don't have a public sector. People are fed up with austerity,

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campaigning on what many people felt was league outlook for more

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austerity was wrong. If that were end you have people saying I'm going

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to keep this group down and make life difficult for you and on the

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other hand you have Marxists with their mates in the cookie jar at

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saying you can't have everything, prizes every day... But isn't that

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what the Conservatives are going to do now? This is not a zero-sum game

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of austerity or no austerity, you can have a well-managed economy

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without giving everything away when you haven't got it, Robert, go bust,

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call in the IMF. There is a happy medium, I thought Philip Hammond was

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spot-on. He said we have to have growth -- growth, you said you need

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tax receipts, Odrick services to a good quality standard of the

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prospects for growth don't look strong. The CBI prediction thinks

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the British economy will slow in the coming years, they say it's because

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of political uncertainty because of the result of the election, partly

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because of Brexit and they said the economy going to 1.6% in 2018 will

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be rather subdued. I think they are wrong and by the way, I used to be a

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trade journal of the CBI so it's not personal to them but a lot of these

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forecasts turn out to be wrong. What I do think and they haven't added,

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business doesn't like uncertainty, and we've got two years of

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uncertainty coming down the line. I think more about Brexit, while this

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is happening it's not going to be easy. But... So for the economy has

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confounded all the critics, not just Brexit but in terms, two years ago

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and this year, it's doing better and one thing we must do, must do, is

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keep the door open with the welcome mat to international investment

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coming in, running businesses here, generating welfare and paying tax,

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therefore you need low taxes and you need government help to build your

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infrastructure, that's how you get it done. Including things like

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housing and transport but one of the problems... And education. But one

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of the problems for the voting public is rising inflation, wages

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remaining low because real incomes are being cut and that's a

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problem... It's not a consequence. But wages haven't gone up... For

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jihad is a feeling that the economy is going here and I am not going

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with it, let's look an alternative but the challenge will be to hammer

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down on inflation, that's for certain. You can afford wage

:06:10.:06:14.

increases if you match with productivity, productivity comes

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from better skills, better investment in kid, those two things

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will lead due to having better real wage rises and it will also curb

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inflation. The question for today is,

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what present did Michel Barnier - the EU's Chief Brexit negotiator -

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give to David Davis, at the start of the Brexit

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negotiations yesterday? b) A pair of binoculars

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themed hot air balloon c) A vinyl

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copy of the EU anthem, Ode to Joy At the end of the show

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Digby will hopefully give So right on schedule David Davis

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formally opened negotiations Following a lunch with his opposite

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number, Michel Barnier, the two men gave a press

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conference in Brussels. They both said the talks had got off

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to a constructive start... I've been encouraged by the

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constructive approach that both sides have taken. We've laid a solid

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foundation for future discussions with an ambitious but eminently

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achievable timetable. And it's clear from the opening that both of us

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want to achieve the best possible outcome and the strongest support

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partnership. One that works for the UK and for the youth. Our objective

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is to agree on the main principles on the key challenges for the UK's

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withdrawal as soon as possible. This includes citizens rights, the single

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financial settlement and the question of orders, in particular in

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Ireland. This morning Michel Barnier

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travelled to Luxembourg for a meeting of the EU's

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General Affairs Council to brief Europe Ministers

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on the start of the brexit We can talk now to our

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Europe Reporter, Adam Fleming ... You are there in the sunshine.

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Michel Barnier telling all the member states what he and David

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Davis talked about, what happens next? Greetings from an absolute the

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scorching Luxembourg, who knew it could get some hot? Michel Barnier

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will meet Europe ministers from the other 27 EU countries in about an

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hour's time to update them on what happened yesterday, the talks with

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David Davis. The ministers will have a discussion in the margins of this

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meeting about the process for relocating two of the EU agencies

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that look after banking and pharmaceuticals based in London.

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What will happen to them after Brexit, a big competition from other

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countries to host them. On the issue of citizens rights Iwobi movement

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soon on that whole thing about what happens to EU nationals living in

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the UK and UK nationals living on the continent, there's going to be

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an EU summit of leaders on Thursday in Brussels, Theresa May will update

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her counterparts and the UK's proposals on that issue and in the

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UK on Monday document will be published with much more detail

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about the UK's pitch on that particular subject. Going forward

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for the Brexit talks as a whole, we got the terms of reference

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yesterday, there will be a week of talks every month until October.

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There will be a mixture of plenary sessions which is where well said

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Michel Barnier on one side of the table, David Davis on the other like

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we saw yesterday in Brussels and there will be a series of smaller

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negotiating groups dedicated to three main topics, citizens rights,

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the issue of how much money the UK should pay to leave the EU and

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thumping euphemistically called other withdrawal issues. Then the

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big issue of what happens to the border between Northern Ireland and

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Ireland, will be the subject of something called a continuing

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dialogue which will be done by the Sherpas, David Davis and Michel

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Barnier's deputies will discuss that and we heard that might take right

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up until the end of the Brexit process to sort out. It will be a

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long, hot and busy summer for you and the other EU countries but will

:10:15.:10:18.

we get updates from all those meetings, will there be regular

:10:19.:10:22.

press conferences, will we know the content of those meetings and what's

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decided? That's actually very interesting, Michel Barnier's people

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says he wants to do press conferences throughout this process

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of the thing we saw yesterday with him and David Davis, talking about

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what they had done, that's going to be a regular feature. Part of the

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terms of reference yesterday, released, about transparency and the

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line there is that both sides will be as transparent as default, they

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are keen to get as much paperwork and facts and figures and

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negotiating positions out there as possible, however there is a caveat

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in the terms of reference, each side can specify that wants documents to

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be held back from public consumption or to be passed around by everyone

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else. I think that's a sort of note leaking clause then of course the EU

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requires lots of meetings with people different countries are

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updated like what's happening today. My big hope for today is that I will

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be able to corners of Europe ministers on their way out of here

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and they will give me some gossip about what happened yesterday. Adam,

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happy hunting. Bebe Jones, the meeting was presented yesterday by

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Michel Barnier as a win for them with David Davis, the Brexit

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negotiator for the UK linking first in terms of the phase negotiations

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to the talks. Do I care? I negotiated 20 years as a corporate

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lawyer, don't go and waste ammunition on stuff that doesn't

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matter, if you want to talk about divorce costs first trade

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afterwards, by all means, avid, I don't care. What I really hope she

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does on Thursday as I hope she makes a big announcement in public that

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says if you are in EU citizen, you are in work in Britain you are not

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only safe but welcome. It looks as if that might happen. I don't want

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anything in return in other words, a unilateral... That change the EU and

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puts them into a position that says how about you. I'm far more

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interested in ensuring we stop and ensure that this is seen to be no's

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interests because we mattered to them and they matter to us.

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You'd think just after a general election you could look

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at the winning party's manifesto and that would be a good guide

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to what's going to be in the Queen's Speech.

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However with no majority in the Commons, the deal

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with the DUP yet to be agreed and some of Theresa May's

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own backbenchers in a rebellious mood it's harder to predict.

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Brexit is of course likely to be the central theme,

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and I predict we'll see a Great Repeal Bill,

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which will turn all EU laws currently have affecting us

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which will turn all EU laws currently affecting

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During the election campaign Theresa May promised legislation

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to tackle terrorism, that could mean a change in human

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rights laws so that tougher restrictions could be

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Trailed this morning are plans for a series of transport

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infrastructure bills, including allowing the extension

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of the HS2 rail line as well as more charging points for electric cars.

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Plans to put a cap on household energy bills could also appear,

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especially as it may well be supported by Labour MPs.

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We could also see a new housing bill that will free up land

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for more houses to be built, and I expect proposed legislation

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However now the visions become less clear, the Conservatives

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did have a number of controversial proposals including dropping

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the pensions triple lock and making people to fund their social

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care with their homes, with a lack of support there's

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a strong chance these won't make it into the speech.

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Finally the Conservatives were keen

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but with no overall majority, and many dissenting backbenchers,

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that could disappear in a puff of smoke.

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We can talk now to our deputy political

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editor John Pienaar, who's in Downing Street ...

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John, this agreement to deal with the DUP in order to give Theresa May

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and the Conservatives a working majority, is it going to happen?

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stop I think it is a matter of when, not if, both sides wanted to happen.

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The Prime Minister does not talk about strength any more for obvious

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reasons, she talks about stability and certainty. There are no

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certainty that all left in British politics at the moment, but a deal

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with the Democratic Unionists, signed and sealed, so the DUP say in

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advance that they will back the Government on those make or break

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votes, that would at least give Theresa May's Lovemark more

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stability than otherwise. I think we will see that unveiled within the

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next few days. There some uncomfortable choreography. On we

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go. With the Government still living a precarious situation and Theresa

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May's situation still more precarious. Could she have called

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the bluff of the DUP? She did not need any formal arrangement ordeal

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and as commentators have said it is unlikely that the DUP would support

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Labour, so why has she bothered to spend so much time on this? I don't

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think there was any real likelihood of the Democratic Unionist Party

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being put in a position where they could then be Government's arms

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behind their back. Hostility to Jeremy Corbyn is well and real. The

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Government would not have had the DUP lined up against them in the

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Queen's Speech, but to have a formal deal in the eyes of those behind me

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gives you that extra bit of stability. The talks leading up to a

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deal, when unveiled, will give the Government something of a heads up

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of what they can and cannot do as they marched through the coming

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parliamentary session. The DUP will not want them to carry on with their

:16:21.:16:26.

plans to water down the guarantee to pensioners or change universal

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rights to benefits for those getting the winter allowance just at the

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moment. There are other things. We will have those clearly mapped out,

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they might have suspected them. They will carry on but it does not mean

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life will be secure from now on, certainly not Theresa May's, because

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it is not. We know there will be a Lib Dem

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leadership contest, he was standing? Said Vince Cable has thrown his hat

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into the ring. Vince Cable, the great sage of the Liberal Democrat

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party, joined the battle. Norman Lammers ready and waiting, Ed Davey,

:17:02.:17:05.

a former Cabinet minister like Vince Cable and Norman Lamb. Now that Jo

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Swinson has said that she is not doing it, the way is clear for Ed

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Davey, I expected to say he is in. Maybe some more horses will also

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join the race. Thank you, John Pienaar.

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We've been joined by Labour's shadow trade secretary

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Barry Gardiner, and by the former Conservative Chief

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Do my prediction is that right? Not too far away. I don't know, as far

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as I can see the speech will be dominated to some extent by Brexit,

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the conversation you just had with Digby, the bill is necessary to

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deliver us leaving the EU and some very important domestic matters. You

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mention transport infrastructure, that is really important to make

:17:58.:18:00.

sure the economy fires on all cylinders. And also issues like

:18:01.:18:06.

updating mental health legislation to make sure that the country works

:18:07.:18:10.

for everybody, those are really important things that will bring the

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country together. Do you accept broadly, as your colleague David

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Davis has said, that because of the election result your Queen's Speech

:18:19.:18:25.

will be pruned somewhat? We need to listen, the Prime Minister was very

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clear, the result is not what we would have wanted, in a democratic

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country you need to listen to the election result and the Prime

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Minister will reflect on our manifesto commitments and what we

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should put in the Queen's Speech. We have had a big decision last year on

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leaving the European Union, we have had a general election and I think

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the public wants us to deal with a hand we have, the Government should

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get on with governing in the national interest, that is what the

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Prime Minister is doing. Barry Gardiner, will you let them go than

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with the Queen's Speech that we made some suggestions? The interesting

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thing about Mark referred to in how Brexit will dominate things in the

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future is if you listen to what Philip Hammond said this morning,

:19:09.:19:14.

the Mansion House speech, he has swallowed entirely the Labour

:19:15.:19:19.

playbook. And our Labour manifesto came out loud and clear. It was fair

:19:20.:19:27.

and managed migration, it was about a jobs first Brexit, it was about no

:19:28.:19:33.

deal being a very, very bad deal for the UK. The nationalisation of

:19:34.:19:42.

water, electricity and railways?! You are a wonderful commentator but

:19:43.:19:45.

you are on the sidelines. Are we talking about Brexit? About Brexit,

:19:46.:19:52.

absolutely. He has even said today that he would look at remaining in

:19:53.:19:58.

the customs union. I take your point that you are saying that he has, in

:19:59.:20:03.

your mind, taken on board some of the recommendations you made, but

:20:04.:20:07.

she said that freedom of movement should end in terms of Brexit, you

:20:08.:20:13.

said that in you're manifesto? We said that when you leave the

:20:14.:20:17.

European Union you leave the internal market, meaning that all

:20:18.:20:22.

four freedoms end. That is the same as the Government? That is just the

:20:23.:20:27.

mechanics. That is what Labour has said, that is what the Conservatives

:20:28.:20:34.

say. We would put in plays fair and manage... Sure... The result is the

:20:35.:20:42.

same. On the customs union the Labour manifesto says the UK will be

:20:43.:20:47.

the customs union and not remain in it, has that change? We said we

:20:48.:20:54.

would focus on the outcomes and the structures are secondary. What we

:20:55.:20:58.

want are the benefits without all the additional bureaucratic burdens

:20:59.:21:03.

at the Borders, all the benefits of that, we said that whether that is

:21:04.:21:10.

done in a new bilateral relationship with the European Union, a bespoke

:21:11.:21:14.

deal, or whether it is done through some modifications... Have you

:21:15.:21:21.

swallowed the entire Labour manifesto, as Barry Gardner puts it,

:21:22.:21:25.

regarding Brexit? I read Philip Hammond's speech that he delivered

:21:26.:21:29.

this morning, it is completely consistent with the Prime Minister's

:21:30.:21:34.

Lancaster house speech. If you go through her 12 negotiations, it is

:21:35.:21:39.

what we said. We want a special partnership with the EU, we want a

:21:40.:21:43.

free trade deal, we want frictionless borders, that has been

:21:44.:21:46.

the position from the beginning, particularly making sure we have a

:21:47.:21:50.

frictionless border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern

:21:51.:21:53.

Ireland. That is very important for both countries and the peace

:21:54.:21:58.

process. It is one of the great virtues that that would

:21:59.:22:01.

facilitate... There are plenty of other ways of dealing with it and we

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are clear that you have to leave the single market when you leave the EU

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otherwise you are bound by freedom of movement, the court and playing

:22:14.:22:15.

in huge contributions. I think if you stayed in the single market the

:22:16.:22:18.

public would not think you have left the EU. It is getting a good deal...

:22:19.:22:22.

The Chancellor made the case for a new form of customs agreement with

:22:23.:22:24.

the current border arrangement which presumably means agreeing to some

:22:25.:22:29.

form of the EU oversight for some years following Britain's exit from

:22:30.:22:35.

the union? The Prime Minister was clear in Lancaster Harwich speech

:22:36.:22:39.

that she wanted to see a phased implementation Brexit, which is exec

:22:40.:22:42.

another chance is that this morning -- in the Lancaster house speech. We

:22:43.:22:47.

want a smooth exit, we want to make sure we get a good deal for British

:22:48.:22:51.

business to consider being successful. Digby Jones, do you not

:22:52.:22:55.

think there has been a change, at least in tone and in terms of trying

:22:56.:23:00.

to reach out to the EU partners? Philip Hammond has said the economy

:23:01.:23:05.

must be at the centre, ahead of immigration concerns? Is he right?

:23:06.:23:10.

As I listen to these gentlemen I was thinking that the average person

:23:11.:23:15.

watching would say this is precisely why we hate

:23:16.:23:27.

politicians. Labour said this, Tories want this... Why don't you

:23:28.:23:31.

think, this is in the national interest that you bury your party

:23:32.:23:33.

differences, you had your scrap at the general election and the nation

:23:34.:23:36.

once the deal to be done. There is so much common ground between you, I

:23:37.:23:38.

actually don't care if Philip Hammond spoke out if your playbook.

:23:39.:23:41.

It is irrelevant whether you are delighted. It is irrelevant whether

:23:42.:23:44.

he did not. What is important is that the bulk of the country are

:23:45.:23:48.

looking for you guys to show a bit of maturity and blessed tribalism.

:23:49.:23:53.

Let slip that the arithmetic, you have to get a Queen's Speech through

:23:54.:23:58.

-- let's look at the arithmetic. You know what this is about, if we are

:23:59.:24:02.

looking ahead to important votes like the Great Repeal Bill, and I

:24:03.:24:06.

will ask Barry on the Labour position on that, will you reach out

:24:07.:24:11.

to pro-Brexit Labour MPs to come on board, not you personally, but the

:24:12.:24:16.

Tories, in order to get through this important legislation without a

:24:17.:24:21.

majority? Responding to Digby, in answer to your first question I said

:24:22.:24:25.

that the whole point about Theresa May forming a Government was to go

:24:26.:24:29.

than in the national interest, implementing the Brexit decision and

:24:30.:24:34.

the result of the election. The interpretation of that decision has

:24:35.:24:38.

been reopened because she did not get a decisive victory. So my

:24:39.:24:40.

question about the party arithmetic... We put the Queen's

:24:41.:24:48.

Speech forward. On the Great Repeal Bill, essentially taking existing EU

:24:49.:24:53.

legislation, putting it in British legislation so that when we leave

:24:54.:24:56.

the EU business the public know what the deal is, we will not be changing

:24:57.:25:01.

policy, we will copy across what we have. I don't think there is a

:25:02.:25:05.

massive difference between us and Labour. Arguing about what we change

:25:06.:25:09.

that too is for subsequent political debate, copying across to protect

:25:10.:25:13.

workers' rights, protect the environment, I don't think there

:25:14.:25:15.

would be a massive difference and we would expect to get their support.

:25:16.:25:20.

Labour will support the Government in the Queen's Speech? What we said

:25:21.:25:25.

about the repeal Bill is that we entirely accept that on day one the

:25:26.:25:30.

Government has repeatedly said it, on day one the rights and

:25:31.:25:33.

protections currently existing in EU law will be transposed into UK law.

:25:34.:25:38.

The difference is that they will be transposed into UK law and they will

:25:39.:25:44.

not have the protection of primary UK law. Would you support it? We

:25:45.:25:50.

will promote your reservations, but in order for these things to pass,

:25:51.:25:55.

will Labour support it or not? There is a better way of doing it, that is

:25:56.:25:59.

what we will put forward. We do not think it is right to have those

:26:00.:26:05.

protections at the whim of a Secretary of State who through

:26:06.:26:07.

secondary legislation could abolish... You will seek to amend

:26:08.:26:12.

it? We will seek to do what they say they are doing, to take them with

:26:13.:26:15.

the same strength as they have in Europe and the same force, because

:26:16.:26:20.

of the umbrella of protection in Europe provides, into UK law and

:26:21.:26:24.

ensure they are embedded their... This is a potential problem. Barry

:26:25.:26:29.

Gardiner is part of the opposition, that is what oppositions do, they

:26:30.:26:33.

oppose things that they say are still in the national interest. We

:26:34.:26:38.

oppose them in the national interest because we believe... They say the

:26:39.:26:43.

national interest, you may say they are not being responsible, but it

:26:44.:26:47.

leaves you with a problem? It will be an interesting test for Labour

:26:48.:26:50.

whether they meant what they said about respecting the result of the

:26:51.:26:54.

reprimand on implementing Brexit. If every time we bring forward

:26:55.:26:58.

legislation we are simply putting the rules in legislation and we will

:26:59.:27:02.

be setting out why we are doing that to give business a clear steer when

:27:03.:27:10.

we read so everyone knows the rules, if Labour opposes those sort of

:27:11.:27:13.

things then the public will conclude they are not in favour of delivering

:27:14.:27:16.

Brexit at all. You will be painted as an irresponsible opposition?

:27:17.:27:22.

There are rights and protections currently existing in Europe which

:27:23.:27:27.

we know for a fact senior government ministers have opposed. We are

:27:28.:27:31.

talking about the clean-air act, for example. The clean air directive

:27:32.:27:35.

which repeatedly this Government has failed to act upon in the interests

:27:36.:27:40.

of this country. We are talking about the habitats directive which

:27:41.:27:47.

Government ministers... The new Secretary of State for the

:27:48.:27:49.

environment has previously gone on the record as saying that he is

:27:50.:27:53.

against it. These are precisely the very important environmental and

:27:54.:28:00.

social protections... Barry, you arrogantly say that people like me

:28:01.:28:04.

sit on the sidelines. We, the business community, pay your wages.

:28:05.:28:09.

We create the wealth that pays the tax that build schools and

:28:10.:28:13.

hospitals. We don't sit on the sidelines, my friend. Do they not

:28:14.:28:16.

have a right to oppose...? ALL TALK AT ONCE Barry, wait a

:28:17.:28:25.

moment. The question was would you get the

:28:26.:28:28.

Great Repeal Bill through so business can say we are starting? I

:28:29.:28:32.

don't want a conversation about whether you approve of the Habitat

:28:33.:28:36.

directive for the so-and-so directive, it was a simple question,

:28:37.:28:40.

can business think we are on our way? If all I get is a political

:28:41.:28:44.

answer it is not quite what we on the sidelines want to hear. The

:28:45.:28:49.

first response is that neither Digby or I have been actually businessmen

:28:50.:28:56.

for about 20 years. As we speak I chair six companies, I think that

:28:57.:29:00.

qualifies me. Let's not compete, answer the question. The whole point

:29:01.:29:07.

about what Digby says is he is very happy to see certain protections

:29:08.:29:11.

that exist in European legislation done away with and the whole

:29:12.:29:14.

argument that Mark is putting forward is that on day one all these

:29:15.:29:18.

rights and protections will be the same, what we do thereafter is a

:29:19.:29:23.

matter for them, but it is not. It is a slippery slope and without the

:29:24.:29:28.

solid protections of being in primary legislation, all the social

:29:29.:29:34.

protections, the Labour protections will be deregulated away, that is

:29:35.:29:39.

the signal... Let Mark reply. Can you guarantee that these protections

:29:40.:29:43.

will be saved? We and the Prime Minister have been very clear both

:29:44.:29:47.

in the Lancaster house speech at the manifesto that as far as workers'

:29:48.:29:50.

rights, environmental protection, all of that legislation is being

:29:51.:29:55.

copied from European legislation into UK legislation so that when we

:29:56.:30:00.

leave, all of those things... Let him finish. For future debates,

:30:01.:30:05.

clearly we can all debate about what should employment law and

:30:06.:30:10.

environmental law look like, but when we beat everything will be the

:30:11.:30:14.

same so that business has the certainty to plan and continue to be

:30:15.:30:17.

successful. I think Barry is not being straight with people when he

:30:18.:30:20.

suggests that somehow we will change all these things.

:30:21.:30:25.

If you are saying you are sticking broadly to the commitments that you

:30:26.:30:32.

make, why is Theresa May still locked in talks with the DUP, it's

:30:33.:30:36.

pretty clear they would not support the Labour Party and of labour were

:30:37.:30:39.

going to form a government in terms of numbers come off she continuing

:30:40.:30:44.

with the DUP, why doesn't she just called their bluff and said support

:30:45.:30:49.

the Queen's speech. I am not involved in the discussions, I am a

:30:50.:30:53.

backbencher but my guess is she is trying to go through, work out what

:30:54.:30:57.

we can deliver, maximise what we can deliver from the manifesto and have

:30:58.:31:01.

that conversation with the DUP. They broadly share our views on things

:31:02.:31:05.

like defence and security and things like that, they've been clear about

:31:06.:31:08.

the overall position but we want to make sure we can maximise what we

:31:09.:31:15.

can deliver. Taking a Digby's point on the national interest. Barry, I

:31:16.:31:18.

am going to have to leave it there, you have both had a good crack at

:31:19.:31:20.

this, Barry, yes you have! Tomorrow will be the Queen's

:31:21.:31:23.

64th Queen's Speech. But it might look at bit different

:31:24.:31:25.

to normal as our Ellie For the second time since he came to

:31:26.:31:37.

the throne, His Majesty The King... The sovereign leads Buckingham

:31:38.:31:42.

Palace, escorted by the household cab, that's just under 120 horses,

:31:43.:31:48.

just the same for well under a century, since 1852, before they'd

:31:49.:31:52.

even invented the Daily Politics. The king or for the best part of the

:31:53.:31:56.

last seven decades, the Queen arrives at Parliament in order to

:31:57.:32:00.

deliver his or her speech, the list written by ministers of the law is

:32:01.:32:03.

the government hopes to get approved by parliament over the coming

:32:04.:32:07.

session. But this time things will be a little different. This year

:32:08.:32:11.

they are scaling things back, the Queen will turn up your two

:32:12.:32:15.

sovereigns gate in a posh car rather than her gold carriage, there won't

:32:16.:32:23.

be a horse inside. The dress code is different too. The Queen won't be in

:32:24.:32:27.

her ceremonial garb, it will be day dress rather than robes, that also

:32:28.:32:32.

means she won't mean any page boys to help her with all that material.

:32:33.:32:36.

She won for her crime either but don't worry, it was ill be there,

:32:37.:32:40.

having arrived in its own car and placed on a table next to her. And

:32:41.:32:45.

the peers watching will still wear their ermine, perfectly for the 34

:32:46.:32:49.

degrees forecast for tomorrow. Last time there was a scaled back Queen's

:32:50.:32:56.

Speech was in 1974 following Ted Heath's snap election. Buckingham

:32:57.:33:00.

Palace, the government and parliamentary parties agreed to do

:33:01.:33:02.

the same this year because there wasn't enough time to rehearse with

:33:03.:33:05.

the horses hangs to trooping the colour last weekend. So the goings

:33:06.:33:10.

on in Parliament may be less flashy than normal, a temporary studios

:33:11.:33:15.

belonging to the broadcasters certainly are not, this year's

:33:16.:33:19.

Queen's Speech may be less of the pomp of the circumstances mean it

:33:20.:33:22.

will be as closely scrutinised as ever.

:33:23.:33:23.

We've been joined by the royal historian Kate Williams.

:33:24.:33:29.

Are you disappointed it's not going to be the full regalia? We have seen

:33:30.:33:36.

this before, we soared in 1974 after Edward Heath called a snap election.

:33:37.:33:40.

I'm more disappointed we are not having a Queen's Speech next year,

:33:41.:33:43.

because the principle is it's going to be dressed down this year because

:33:44.:33:48.

of trooping the colour, the Crown is going in a car, not on the Queen's

:33:49.:33:54.

head, but the Palace says we will have a dressed down setup and next

:33:55.:33:57.

year we are back to the full regalia but that's not going to happen.

:33:58.:34:01.

Because we have to Magarira your session based on Brexit but critics

:34:02.:34:06.

might say it is because they are worried they might get through

:34:07.:34:09.

another Queen's Speech. We gave you the broad outline, will it be

:34:10.:34:13.

totally different? It will be totally different, we won't see the

:34:14.:34:17.

horse and carriage, we won't see what we expect to see the tourists

:34:18.:34:22.

lined up to see, she will be in a car, dressed down, no page boys and

:34:23.:34:26.

the Crown will be carried in as opposed to being actually worn. In

:34:27.:34:32.

1974 we had the cap of maintenance and the sword and Crown weren't even

:34:33.:34:37.

carried in, at least we get the crown even though it's not on her

:34:38.:34:41.

head. There are other traditions that will carry on this time, an MP

:34:42.:34:46.

is always taken hostage if you like in the Palace, explain the

:34:47.:34:49.

background. The MP is taken hostage in the Palace, usually one of the

:34:50.:34:54.

backbenchers and this is because the monarch is not allowed to enter

:34:55.:34:58.

Parliament, dating back to the time of Charles and at the monarch was to

:34:59.:35:03.

stay was to cause chaos then that MP is a hostage. They are hostage to

:35:04.:35:08.

fortune, sitting in Buckingham Palace, watching the television over

:35:09.:35:11.

there. Amazing that tradition continues. And the great tradition,

:35:12.:35:16.

searching the Palace of Westminster for the gunpowder plot bombs, I

:35:17.:35:22.

mean, the tradition that we have dates back to Edward VII, he was the

:35:23.:35:26.

one who bought in to all the pomp and ceremony, Queen Dettori opened

:35:27.:35:31.

Parliament, less so after Prince Albert died but the pomp and

:35:32.:35:34.

ceremony and circumstance was brought in by Edward VII, it's quite

:35:35.:35:40.

an old tradition. Yes, it is. One of the other things that struck me,

:35:41.:35:44.

debate about when it was going to happen, and the date hadn't been

:35:45.:35:48.

clarified that was an argument put forward that's because it takes a

:35:49.:35:54.

long time for the Inc to dry on the goatskin parchment? But it's not

:35:55.:35:57.

actually goatskin. It's not made of gold, it's a special parchment, a

:35:58.:36:03.

vegan parchment made specially to last 500 years, I don't know how

:36:04.:36:06.

they can guarantee that, I don't know how we can test that or take it

:36:07.:36:11.

back if it didn't but this is a special parchment made of paper that

:36:12.:36:15.

is called goatskin. It's supposed to last 500 years so? That's correct,

:36:16.:36:22.

I've been where they have the rules, it lasts just as well as those ones

:36:23.:36:27.

from the 17th century. Are you going to miss it? Not really, I am quite a

:36:28.:36:34.

pomp and ceremony sort of person but sitting in 34 degrees of heat in

:36:35.:36:38.

this massive cloak, I have to say, if we are going to do it for obvious

:36:39.:36:43.

reasons, let's do it all, let's have a day when none of this happens, I

:36:44.:36:48.

get that, although I quite like the pomp and circumstance, I quite enjoy

:36:49.:36:52.

it. You would like some fashion, summer and winter uniform? For two

:36:53.:36:57.

or three reasons you mention, we are dressing down, that stressed I'm

:36:58.:37:02.

completely this time but then... Shorts and T-shirts? Trainers? Why

:37:03.:37:09.

not? Put your shades on. It's a bit half baked, hip but not there, I

:37:10.:37:14.

would do the whole thing for good reasons or not. Personally I would

:37:15.:37:18.

carry on as Edward VII intended but if not, the Crown is not there, yet

:37:19.:37:25.

it is, it's coming in a car. You can imagine some newspaper carrying some

:37:26.:37:30.

satire about the crime's day, I got picked up in a car, I sat next to

:37:31.:37:35.

Her Majesty. And it will be very hot. It is, you saw guards men

:37:36.:37:41.

fainting at trooping the colour, Her Majesty is the strongest of all is

:37:42.:37:45.

all but she's still is in her 90s. But I do think it's rather a shame,

:37:46.:37:49.

increasingly we are seeing her handing more of her duties and this

:37:50.:37:55.

is a key duty for her, it is vital, she is head of state and it is vital

:37:56.:37:59.

duty but still, as we start to move towards thinking that we may begin

:38:00.:38:02.

to see some of her final state openings because she may get the job

:38:03.:38:07.

to Prince Charles eventually, it is rather a shame that we are seeing

:38:08.:38:10.

rather fewer but there have been times before then they dressed down.

:38:11.:38:14.

Queen Victoria complained in 1880 some of the ladies were not dressed

:38:15.:38:17.

correctly and children were allowed in. God forbid, never worked with

:38:18.:38:24.

children and animals. That's because we are getting old, Kate Williams,

:38:25.:38:25.

thank you. Now, following the terror attack

:38:26.:38:27.

on a mosque in London yesterday, we spoke to Miqdaad Versi

:38:28.:38:29.

from the Muslim Council of Britain. While Mr Versi praised

:38:30.:38:32.

the response to the attack, he was critical of anti-Muslim

:38:33.:38:34.

sentiment which, he said, could lead to this kind

:38:35.:38:36.

of violent Islamophobia. We've talked very much about hate

:38:37.:38:38.

speakers being unacceptable, And now we know that the BBC

:38:39.:38:46.

and many others will not have Anjem Choudary and others on the TV,

:38:47.:38:52.

despite having had them in the past. What about the same

:38:53.:38:55.

people on the right? What about the people

:38:56.:38:57.

like Douglas Murray, who just last week came on the show

:38:58.:38:59.

and said less Islam That kind of attitude

:39:00.:39:02.

within even the BBC, within a show like this,

:39:03.:39:06.

giving a platform to people like that to spread their

:39:07.:39:08.

hate is unacceptable. Well, nobody from the Henry Jackson

:39:09.:39:11.

Society was with us for that discussion yesterday,

:39:12.:39:17.

but we are joined now by Tom Wilson, who is a Fellow

:39:18.:39:19.

at the Henry Jackson Society Centre for the Response to

:39:20.:39:22.

Radicalisation and Terrorism. Welcome to the Daily Politics, you

:39:23.:39:33.

heard the comments made, what was your comments to what was said? I

:39:34.:39:37.

think it's an accept the ball that people like Douglas Murray and those

:39:38.:39:42.

of us in the Henry Jackson Society who had been focused on countering

:39:43.:39:46.

extremism and extremist ideology, of defending liberal values and Chrissy

:39:47.:39:52.

should be equated with extremists like Anjem Choudary. It undermines

:39:53.:39:57.

the attire effort to undermine extremism. Except Douglas Murray

:39:58.:40:01.

said Les Islam in general is obviously a good thing, he was

:40:02.:40:06.

drawing parallels a few weeks ago on Sunday Politics when I interviewed

:40:07.:40:09.

him between the number of Muslims in the country and the rate of

:40:10.:40:13.

terrorist attacks. Is that not hate speech? No, I think as you know from

:40:14.:40:17.

that programme he was talking about extremists and radicals, he said how

:40:18.:40:23.

much he acts the Liberals, the moderates... He said they are in a

:40:24.:40:26.

minority and he didn't think they would succeed and therefore he

:40:27.:40:30.

didn't think more Islam was a good thing which in some people's minds

:40:31.:40:34.

sounds like some set of closing process. Not at all, at the Henry

:40:35.:40:38.

Jackson Society we've been quite clear about combating a whole range

:40:39.:40:43.

of extremism on the far right as well as among Islamist and that's

:40:44.:40:46.

why we support the government's prevent programme focusing on

:40:47.:40:49.

tackling far right but the goal is Asian as well as within the Islamic

:40:50.:40:55.

community as well. Do you accept that Douglas Murray's comments about

:40:56.:41:00.

having less Islam is inflammatory? I don't think it was inflammatory

:41:01.:41:04.

because I think what he was saying, if we look at this country work we

:41:05.:41:08.

have a large Muslim community and a wide spectrum of different police,

:41:09.:41:12.

on the far end, the most extreme ends there are problematic views and

:41:13.:41:15.

we would want a lot less of that kind of Islam, I think that's what

:41:16.:41:20.

Douglas has always focused his career on, seeking to combat.

:41:21.:41:25.

Except, B Jones, let me read you the quality made in the original

:41:26.:41:29.

interview, he said Eastern Europe doesn't have an Islamic terrorism

:41:30.:41:31.

problem because it doesn't have much Islam. France has the worst problem

:41:32.:41:38.

because it has the most Islam. Now he doesn't say it's all to do with

:41:39.:41:42.

extremism, he is talking about Islam, are we ever he says going to

:41:43.:41:46.

draw any lessons from this, apparently not? Douglas Murray, is

:41:47.:41:52.

he right? I am not saying he intentionally or didn't

:41:53.:41:56.

intentionally forget, what this country needs less fundamental

:41:57.:41:59.

Islam. If he was talking about it generically I think he's completely

:42:00.:42:04.

wrong because you can't... You don't want less or more of Judaism, less

:42:05.:42:08.

or more Catholicism, less or more of any... Buddhism or Hindu... What it

:42:09.:42:15.

is, I think the Islamic community house two sort itself out better to

:42:16.:42:20.

deal with its own problem of fundamentalism and statistically, if

:42:21.:42:24.

you have a large Muslim community, almost statistically by definition

:42:25.:42:27.

you will have more extremism simply because there will be a percentage

:42:28.:42:31.

of the population, of the community but it's not a function, it's a

:42:32.:42:36.

statement of fact, if you have more of a certain type you will have more

:42:37.:42:39.

of the extreme of that certain type but I don't think it's on to say

:42:40.:42:45.

that a nation needs more or less of a belief. What it was need is less

:42:46.:42:51.

of a damaging... End of it which is fundamentalism and as you say, that

:42:52.:42:54.

could be the far right as much as it could be Islam. Do you agree? I

:42:55.:42:59.

think what was specifically so problematic about these comments was

:43:00.:43:02.

the equation with Anjem Choudary, who is a hate preacher, who supports

:43:03.:43:07.

Islamic State Anderson prison, comparing somebody like that to

:43:08.:43:09.

Douglas who tries to counter extremism is it that macro

:43:10.:43:13.

concerning, the Muslim Council of Britain haphazard that Racal has had

:43:14.:43:18.

its problems in the past, and they are trying to defame and silence

:43:19.:43:20.

those who are trying to combat the problem. Do you think right-wing

:43:21.:43:25.

extremism is dealt with equally to Islamic fundamentalism? Certainly in

:43:26.:43:30.

the government's counter extremism strategy it is, they seek to combat

:43:31.:43:35.

that two ideologies but the National conversation hasn't focused as much

:43:36.:43:39.

as it could do on the far right as it needs to, particularly as we've

:43:40.:43:43.

seen a rise in hate crimes against Muslims as well as recently with

:43:44.:43:48.

this attack on Jo Cox, it's a serious problem. It's a problem

:43:49.:43:52.

which critics might argue and maybe the Muslim Council of Britain would

:43:53.:43:55.

say the government has taken its eye off the ball because of the focus

:43:56.:44:00.

rightly on Islamic extremism and fundamentalism. You think the Henry

:44:01.:44:04.

Jackson Society has played a role in that perhaps focusing too much on

:44:05.:44:08.

one side of extremism and not the other? We've produced research on

:44:09.:44:11.

countering the far right on campus and we've been supportive of the

:44:12.:44:15.

government strategy prevent which focuses on far right referrals as

:44:16.:44:19.

well as Islamist ones and we say it's correct to do both of those. Do

:44:20.:44:24.

you think America -- in your mind they are treated both equally in the

:44:25.:44:28.

pub in mind? No, I was thinking this this morning, there are many

:44:29.:44:33.

reasons, one is more global than the other, I think it's fur to say, one

:44:34.:44:37.

has a bigger infrastructure than the other and one is more in the public

:44:38.:44:40.

mind because there have been more incidents of terrorism caused more

:44:41.:44:43.

by one than the other and that's factual. The terrorism response

:44:44.:44:47.

tends to be guided to one because statistically there is more of it

:44:48.:44:50.

but I don't think the public mind sees it in the same way and I

:44:51.:44:53.

thought this morning, I forget his name, the guy in Norway... And are

:44:54.:45:00.

spearing braided. That had nothing to do... That had to do with far

:45:01.:45:05.

right extremism and socialism, and that was evil and disgusting and had

:45:06.:45:10.

nothing to do with Islam and he murdered 60... War, I think,

:45:11.:45:15.

actually. But was just so utterly disgraceful and was nothing to do

:45:16.:45:19.

with Islam. So we have got to understand there is this and the

:45:20.:45:24.

more you have won the more you have the other and I think our society

:45:25.:45:28.

needs to understand that more and I think France probably has the same

:45:29.:45:31.

problem, for all the obvious political reasons. I keep very much

:45:32.:45:35.

for coming in from the Henry Jackson Society. We are getting the ports

:45:36.:45:40.

that the deal, the agreement with the DUP, this would be ahead of the

:45:41.:45:44.

Queen's Speech tomorrow is beginning to take for Maurice almost agreed

:45:45.:45:47.

and will bring you confirmation of that as and when it happens.

:45:48.:45:50.

Ed Miliband's career took a surprising turn yesterday -

:45:51.:45:52.

the former Labour leader made his debut as a radio

:45:53.:45:54.

presenter, standing in for Jeremy Vine on Radio 2.

:45:55.:45:57.

Next week the former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith will take

:45:58.:45:59.

Let's hear how Ed Miliband got on yesterday afternoon.

:46:00.:46:05.

It's Ed Miliband, I'm sitting in for Jeremy Vine.

:46:06.:46:08.

A year after the referendum, today is the day Brexit

:46:09.:46:12.

Are you someone who is optimistic about the outcome and says people

:46:13.:46:16.

We've got some comments from our listeners.

:46:17.:46:21.

Liam e-mails with a particularly personal one for me.

:46:22.:46:23.

I met you in the Mallard in Cusworth..."

:46:24.:46:30.

- I can recommend it - "..the other week while you

:46:31.:46:32.

I'm a Labour voter but voted Leave on the back of all

:46:33.:46:36.

Alistair from Isla Island in Scotland joins,

:46:37.:46:39.

I think that's just Isla, actually, in Scotland.

:46:40.:46:41.

Mr Vine's made the odd mistake as well, so don't worry.

:46:42.:46:48.

Because this is so important, Ed, that my mum is not

:46:49.:46:52.

a prejudiced person, and that's why I find Brexit

:46:53.:46:54.

and talking to my mum about Brexit so difficult.

:46:55.:46:56.

Andy, we are incredibly grateful to you both

:46:57.:46:59.

for sharing your story and your emotion.

:47:00.:47:02.

And we've been joined by the Telegraph's radio

:47:03.:47:12.

critic Gillian Reynolds, and the presenter of

:47:13.:47:14.

The Nigel Farage Show on LBC - he may also be familiar to some

:47:15.:47:18.

of you from his former career in politics...

:47:19.:47:23.

Or maybe not so former, but we will ask that later! Is somebody

:47:24.:47:30.

experienced as a radio presenter, how did he get on? Not bad.

:47:31.:47:36.

Politicians should be good at this in one way because we are used to

:47:37.:47:40.

dealing with arguments, we are used to one side of an argument, a

:47:41.:47:44.

counterargument, whenever you do an interview with devious like you you

:47:45.:47:48.

think, what will be that argument be? The problem a lot of politicians

:47:49.:47:53.

have is that they are so scripted. They stand up, read from an autocue,

:47:54.:48:00.

it is all a bit... Politics these days is a bit wooden. To make the

:48:01.:48:03.

transition from being a party leader to present you have to lose that and

:48:04.:48:06.

listen up. You did not think he was natural

:48:07.:48:12.

enough? It was his birthday. I will not be unkind... You can be, there

:48:13.:48:17.

are no rules. Let judge him on Friday. I have been doing it for six

:48:18.:48:22.

months, I am very inexperienced, but I feel I give it best when I am very

:48:23.:48:26.

laid back and relaxed and it is almost like you are chatting to a

:48:27.:48:31.

friend at home. Radio presenting has to be conversational? They are very

:48:32.:48:36.

different shows, Mr Farage's shows are the one-man band, constantly

:48:37.:48:40.

talking, the Jeremy Vine show is very structured and largely run by

:48:41.:48:46.

the editor, he will be on his years saying go to the music, or whatever,

:48:47.:48:51.

he has to play records, take the calls, run to time. It is very

:48:52.:48:56.

tightly structured with a very experienced editor, it is quite

:48:57.:49:00.

different. What did you think? He was not bad at all, I think he

:49:01.:49:04.

exceeded expectations. He was better than I thought he would be in terms

:49:05.:49:10.

of the sounds of it. He ran a tremendous risk, because like yours,

:49:11.:49:17.

Mr Farage, he has a voice that impressionists love! Is that a bad

:49:18.:49:21.

thing? Is it the real thing?! You did not think it was him? I think

:49:22.:49:28.

introducing records is quite hard, having done it myself along with the

:49:29.:49:32.

current affairs programme. I was hopeless at doing the music. Of

:49:33.:49:37.

course there are the records, when you are a BBC presenter you are not

:49:38.:49:42.

allowed to have an opinion. Now, what I do with LBC, I am allowed an

:49:43.:49:48.

opinion. And off, rules I can say pretty much what I want but I had to

:49:49.:49:54.

invite the other side of it. -- under off rules. It makes a big

:49:55.:49:58.

difference if you are free to speak your mind, especially with the type

:49:59.:50:02.

of show you are doing. I do not think I would last very long on the

:50:03.:50:07.

BBC. I am not sure you will ever find out! Is it a good idea for

:50:08.:50:11.

former and current politicians to do this? Ed Miliband is yesterday,

:50:12.:50:17.

politically, so he has the freedom... And Iain Duncan Smith is

:50:18.:50:27.

tomorrow?! You ought to be a politician! Nigel, your politics

:50:28.:50:31.

career is over so it gives you bigger freedom. I am not sure

:50:32.:50:36.

Edwards taking a risk because he is yesterday... He has nothing to use.

:50:37.:50:42.

-- nothing to lose. But Nigel, you made a good point that politics

:50:43.:50:46.

these days, it is so scripted, you must do this and bad. That is why

:50:47.:50:54.

Macron, Trump, Farage, Corbyn appeal. You and Corbyn could not be

:50:55.:50:59.

further apart but you appeal to the public because you are not the

:51:00.:51:03.

traditional scripted politician. Ed Miliband was. Are the listeners

:51:04.:51:09.

being well served by Nigel and Ed? Yes, I think so, except Nigel, I am

:51:10.:51:15.

sure he will not mind me saying, is a bit of a one trick pony here

:51:16.:51:19.

because he has one issue and he goes on and on about it. Everyone tells

:51:20.:51:25.

me I have the best job in the world and then I point out to them but I

:51:26.:51:30.

have to listen to you at least once a week. And then they quail. Because

:51:31.:51:36.

when people bring up and say you were wrong about this and that you

:51:37.:51:39.

say that was very interesting, next call. Are you cutting people off who

:51:40.:51:46.

do not agree with you?! There are other presenters on that show who

:51:47.:51:51.

demean people who have an alternative opinion. The only time I

:51:52.:51:56.

would cut somebody off... You are mercilessly polite. I am. What about

:51:57.:52:02.

this former political career, is it definitely former? Lord Jones has

:52:03.:52:08.

written me off, that is the end of it! Don't get out of it that way,

:52:09.:52:14.

would you stand for leader? Will you get back into politics? I am leading

:52:15.:52:18.

a group in the European Parliament, I am still in politics. That is

:52:19.:52:22.

where the re-negotiations of the British Steel will take place. I am

:52:23.:52:27.

in a very good position to oversee it. Will you stand for Ukip leader

:52:28.:52:34.

again? I have not decided. It is not ruled out. There is a fabulous wine

:52:35.:52:42.

cellar at brussels, we should make a part of the renegotiation, you said?

:52:43.:52:50.

Could you advise? One final piece of advice, the British public who voted

:52:51.:52:55.

Ukip actually voted away to make sure this deal was done, and I think

:52:56.:53:00.

you have a moral as well as possibly representational obligation to those

:53:01.:53:05.

who voted Ukip to ensure that we come out holding the feet to the

:53:06.:53:14.

fire, you would be very good. Far fewer people voted for Ukip... I was

:53:15.:53:19.

trying to take it away from party politics. You are seen as Brexit.

:53:20.:53:24.

Which is why I will see this thing through 42-macro years in the

:53:25.:53:27.

European Parliament. As far as Ukip is concerned, I am still thinking.

:53:28.:53:31.

Tellers when you have made up mind, thank you both.

:53:32.:53:33.

So, in the run up to this month's general election the opinion polls

:53:34.:53:36.

were divided on what would be the likely outcome, but most

:53:37.:53:39.

were predicting an outright win for the Conservatives and suggesting

:53:40.:53:41.

a significant Parliamentary majority for Theresa May.

:53:42.:53:43.

That, as we now know, wasn't correct.

:53:44.:53:45.

The polling company Ipsos MORI has been looking at how different groups

:53:46.:53:49.

of voters actually voted when faced with a ballot box.

:53:50.:53:51.

While Labour targeted young people in this campaign,

:53:52.:53:53.

the stark contrast between young and old was the biggest

:53:54.:53:55.

since the 1970s, with the swing to Labour coming from those under

:53:56.:53:59.

the age of 44, whereas the swing to the Conservatives

:54:00.:54:01.

Perhaps less expected was the class divisions,

:54:02.:54:09.

with more middle class voters favouring Labour and working

:54:10.:54:12.

class voters moving towards the Conservatives.

:54:13.:54:16.

Theresa May's party also had a large lead amongst those with no

:54:17.:54:19.

education qualifications, while graduates favoured Labour.

:54:20.:54:24.

But Labour took the lead amongst those who voted Remain in last

:54:25.:54:27.

year's Brexit referendum, with a majority of Leave voters

:54:28.:54:29.

From the other parties, the Lib Dems vote share remained steady,

:54:30.:54:36.

although only half of their voters had also backed them

:54:37.:54:41.

in 2015, compared to Labour and the Conservatives who held

:54:42.:54:43.

on to nine out of ten of their voters from the last election.

:54:44.:54:48.

And we've been joined by Gideon Skinner from Ipsos MORI.

:54:49.:54:55.

You still predicted a win for the Conservatives. Did you get your

:54:56.:55:00.

calculations wrong on the number of young people who turned out to vote?

:55:01.:55:05.

We think that was one of the things that made this underestimate Labour,

:55:06.:55:10.

we got most of the other parties pretty much correct but we

:55:11.:55:13.

underestimated Labour is one of the things we think we may have made a

:55:14.:55:17.

mistake is that we adjusted for turnout, in previous elections we

:55:18.:55:20.

had always seen young people were much less likely to turn out, but

:55:21.:55:24.

latest data suggests they did and that was an increase. It was not

:55:25.:55:33.

just the 18 to 24, it was the under 35s? Yes, the eye-catching rise is

:55:34.:55:37.

among 18 to 24, Labour always does better among the very youngest.

:55:38.:55:41.

There was a swing to Labour among the 25 to 34 age group and the 34 to

:55:42.:55:48.

44. I mentioned the class divide, did that stick out? Certainly. We

:55:49.:55:53.

have produced these estimates since 1979 and have never seen Labour get

:55:54.:55:58.

as high a score among middle classes as in 2017, never seen the

:55:59.:56:00.

Conservatives get as high score amongst the working classes as we

:56:01.:56:16.

have seen these estimates. Both parties increased their bowled

:56:17.:56:18.

share, it was not just one side or the other, but they did well among

:56:19.:56:21.

the class they are perhaps traditionally not associated with.

:56:22.:56:23.

It was interpreted by some as a protest election and revenge of the

:56:24.:56:26.

Remainers, did you see it like that? There is a difference by Remain and

:56:27.:56:32.

Leave vote, Remain war more likely to vote Labour and Leave

:56:33.:56:37.

Conservative. And graduates more -- were more likely to vote Labour and

:56:38.:56:43.

people without qualification is more likely to vote Conservative.

:56:44.:56:45.

Although Brexit was one of the most important issues it was not the only

:56:46.:56:50.

one, we saw concerns about NHS rise to one of the highest we have seen,

:56:51.:56:54.

concern about education being the third most important, it was not

:56:55.:56:58.

just Brexit. What about a shift in voter

:56:59.:57:03.

alignment? There was a move, middle-class voters going to Labour,

:57:04.:57:07.

working-class in some parts of the country to the Conservatives. Has

:57:08.:57:12.

that been a permanent shift, do you think? Has there been a realignment

:57:13.:57:17.

in support? There has been a long-term pattern of class being

:57:18.:57:21.

less of a predictable and in the 70s or 80s, that has changed over the

:57:22.:57:24.

years. Tony Blair did very well among the middle classes. It is not

:57:25.:57:28.

new but it seems to accelerate and when you say middle class and

:57:29.:57:33.

working class they are -- there are very different groups, the

:57:34.:57:36.

metropolitan elites and the older Conservative groups. Doesn't that

:57:37.:57:41.

make it more difficult to predict? You can't say middle class and

:57:42.:57:45.

working class, it is rural, metropolitan and all sorts of other

:57:46.:57:49.

factors? One of the big problems unions have had in the private

:57:50.:57:52.

sector is that lots of the battles have been won and the idea of the

:57:53.:57:58.

TUC, Labour, it is not what it was because you get so much more

:57:59.:58:01.

aspirational behaviour. I have welcomed and relished the day that I

:58:02.:58:06.

can look at you, I was asked so many times in various things that I do,

:58:07.:58:11.

call it. I said I do not go with a landslide but I will go with 58. And

:58:12.:58:16.

that is because people like you said it would be a 20 or 22% lead. If you

:58:17.:58:22.

said it was 5% or 6% I would not have done that. Why did you get it

:58:23.:58:27.

so badly wrong? I am afraid we will have to leave it, saved by the Bell.

:58:28.:58:30.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

:58:31.:58:33.

The question was what present did Michel Barnier -

:58:34.:58:35.

the EU's Chief Brexit negotiator - give to David Davis

:58:36.:58:37.

at the start of the Brexit negotiations yesterday?

:58:38.:58:39.

A, a ride in an EU-themed hot air balloon?

:58:40.:58:42.

C, a vinyl copy of the EU anthem, Ode to Joy?

:58:43.:58:46.

It is B or deed, I will go with the wooden hiking stick. You would be

:58:47.:58:53.

right, well done. Maybe he was trying to say take a hide in the

:58:54.:58:55.

most polite way! Thanks to all our guests,

:58:56.:58:56.

especially Digby Jones. The one o'clock news is starting

:58:57.:58:59.

over on BBC One now. We won't be here tomorrow as it's

:59:00.:59:02.

the State Opening of Parliament - you can watch all the coverage live

:59:03.:59:05.

on BBC One from 10:30am. MUSIC: Power

:59:06.:59:21.

by Kanye West

:59:22.:59:24.

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