30/11/2017 Daily Politics


30/11/2017

Jo Coburn is joined by Tim Shipman to discuss British relations with America. Plus an interview with first minister of Wales Carwyn Jones about Wales and Brexit.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to

the Daily Politics.

0:00:370:00:41

Immigration falls by 80,000 in

the year following the referendum,

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with a sharp fall in the number

coming from the EU.

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Are we already seeing

the Brexit effect?

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Donald Trump takes aim at

Theresa May after the Prime Minister

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criticised the President

for re-tweeting anti-Muslim

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videos from a British

far-right political party.

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The Queen is due to roll out the

carpet for the President next year -

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should he be dis-invited?

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Theresa May called on the Saudis

to ease their blockade of Yemen,

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but should the UK be selling arms

to the controversial Arab Kingdom?

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And we take our balls to find out

whether you think a 40-odd billion

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Brexit divorce bill is bananas...

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Oh, I'd go bananas!

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Not paying all that out.

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We need it in this country.

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We need it for our

hospitals and that.

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All that in the next hour.

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With us for the whole

of the programme today

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is the Political Editor

of the Sunday Times and prolific

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chronicler of these unpredictable

political times, Tim Shipman.

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Welcome to the programme.

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First today, there's been a sharp

fall in net migration in the first

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set of figures that take in the full

year following the EU referendum.

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Net migration has fallen by 106,000,

from 336,000 to 230,000

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in the year ending June 2017 -

the largest annual

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decrease recorded.

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The Government has a target

of reducing net migration

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to less than 100,000 -

so the current level is still more

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than twice that figure.

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Statistically it is significant, the

drop. Over three quarters of the

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decrease in net migration can be

accounted for by EU citizens, is it

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politically significant?

I think so.

I think a lot of Brexiteers felt

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voting to leave the EU would allow

them to bring in new tougher rules

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which would allow us to control who

comes here. What appears to be

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happening, a political effect where

people decide not to come here

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instead. They think the government

will be drilling down into and to

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check is what sort of people are

trying to come here? The Visa regime

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they will tell us about next year

will be trying to encourage people

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with high-tech qualifications to

keep coming. They need to keep

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filling posts in the health service

and need qualified people. There

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will be a concern if it's those sort

of people deciding they'd no longer

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want to come here, because of what

they feel is a perceived sense that

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they are not welcome any more.

What

about the figures for non-EU

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nationals coming to the country?

With the prospective new trade

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deals, as we understand it from the

government being made, if the

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presumption those numbers may go up?

I think that is possible, and

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certainly if you're looking at

countries like Australia, New

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Zealand, Canada, they will want to

have a more liberal regime so that

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people who have been treated less

well than members of the EU until

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now will have a presumption may have

the same kind of rights to come

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here. It is certainly the case if

you start getting a load of people

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in from the subcontinent, for

example, to fill jobs that people

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from Poland on Hungary are no longer

coming here to do, it's not clear

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that what the people of Sunderland

were voting for.

And the target is

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to 100,000 for net migration.

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Now it's time for our daily quiz.

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The question for today is, where

have Mrs and Miss gone missing?

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Is it...

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In the classroom, at Wimbledon,

in the law courts,

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or in the council chamber?

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At the end of the show Tim

will hopefully give us

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the correct answer.

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Now, the extraordinary diplomatic

storm has developed over tweets

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from US President Donald Trump.

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Yesterday, he retweeted three

videos by Jayda Fransen -

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deputy leader of the far-right group

Britain First - which campaigns

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against what it calls the "rapid

growth of militant Islam".

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The videos purported to show

Muslims attacking Christians

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or destroying Christian icons.

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But the veracity of all three

has been questioned,

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with the Dutch Embassy in America

saying one video allegedly showing

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an immigrant offender actually

showed a man who was actually born

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in the Netherlands.

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Theresa May's spokesman said

it was "wrong" for the President

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to have done this, as Britain First

seeks to "divide communities"

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while peddling lies

and stoking tensions.

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And the spokesman said British

people "overwhelmingly reject"

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the prejudiced rhetoric

of the far-right.

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Sajid Javid, the only

Muslim cabinet minister,

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said the President

"endorsed the views of a vile,

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hate-filled racist organisation that

hates me and people like me".

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Well, Donald Trump's Press

Secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders,

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was asked about the President

retweeting videos whose

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circumstances he knew nothing about.

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Whether it's a real video,

the threat is real,

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and that is what the President

is talking about, that is

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what the President is focused on,

dealing with those real threats,

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and those are real, no

matter how you look at it.

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So it doesn't matter

that the video is fake?

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Look, I'm not talking

about the nature of the video.

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I think you're focusing

on the wrong thing.

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The threat is real.

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Well, last night Donald Trump

responded by tweeting

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at Theresa May:

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It's not the first time he's weighed

into British politics,

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and after the London Bridge attack,

he criticised Sadiq Khan on Twitter

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for allegedly telling people

in London there was

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"no reason to be alarmed" -

a remark the London Mayor says

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was taken out of context.

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And after the attempted terror

attack on the tube at Parsons Green

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station, he tweeted -

without any corroborating evidence -

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that the people responsible had been

"in the sights of Scotland Yard".

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Well, the Home Secretary

Amber Rudd has

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been speaking in the House

of Commons on this

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matter this morning...

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We have been very clear.

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President Donald Trump

was wrong to re-tweet videos

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posted by the far group,

Britain First.

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We have said so clearly in this

House, and the Prime Minister has

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said so clearly online.

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We will continue to speak freely

and frankly when it takes place.

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Let's talk to Drew Liquerman,

he's in Dundee and he's the chairman

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of Republicans Overseas

in Scotland.

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Welcome to the programme. Should

Donald Trump the retweeting fake

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news?

Should he be retweeting fake

news? I think he retweeted something

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from a well-known journalist.

Something she tweeted with a

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verified check mark. I'm not

defending him but I don't think he

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was willingly tweeting fake news...

Should he be retweeting something

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that hasn't been verified, and in

fact was contradicted by the Dutch

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embassy?

No, I said publicly before

I think he should undo the tweets of

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the three videos posted by the

deputy leader of Britain First.

Why

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is Donald Trump, in your mind,

publicly rebuking one of his closest

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allies by two criticising Theresa

May?

I'm not sure... I don't think

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he should involve himself with

inside, internal UK affairs. The

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same way I criticised Barack Obama

for trying to intervene in the

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Brexit referendum. I think Trump 's

best thing out of UK affairs.

This

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was a very personal tweet to the

Prime Minister of the United

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Kingdom. Was that wise?

It wasn't

wise I think Trump was trying to

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bring up serious concerns about

radicals and he went about in the

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wrong way, which serves to hurt his

cause. Those ways the US and UK

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could work together, and could come

across better than the weight did.

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He went about it the wrong way. He

had no idea what that account was

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that he retweeted. I think it was a

failure on Twitter yesterday, is how

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I would put it.

What point is he

trying to make?

I think Trump is

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trying to make the point that

radicals are a serious threat. The

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point about the UK was the UK

admitting Brits who went to fight

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for Islamic State in Syria back into

the country. Trying to make the

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point of unfettered immigration,

whether it is Islamic terror or MS

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13. I think he did not make the

point well. If anything, he served

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to hurt the point.

You think he's

done more harm than good?

Exactly. I

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think Trump wanted to bring up great

points and went about it the wrong

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way. He retweeted paper, didn't know

who they were or what

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organisation... Virtually nobody in

America has heard of Britain First.

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I have been very involved in UK

politics, I've lived in the UK and

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have never even heard of Jayda

Fransen, the leader...

You are not

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the President of the United States.

You have said it has done more harm

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than good and it might, to some

extent, have put pressure on if not

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risked the so-called special

relationship between the United

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Kingdom and the United States. The

Muslim cabinet minister here in the

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UK says the President of the United

States has endorsed the views of a

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vile hate filled organisation, a

group you and the president happened

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heard of, a group that hates me and

people like me. Do you think Donald

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Trump is a racist?

No, I don't think

Donald Trump is a racist. It is a

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term everyone would like to throw

around. He retweeted the video to

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try and bring up a serious concern.

He retweeted... Here they follows 45

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people on Twitter. One of the

journalists he followed retweeted is

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a man with a blue checkmark, he saw

the blue checkmark, and retweeted

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thinking it's certified news, which

it wasn't. I think it's a very big

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misunderstanding. I think another

part of the misunderstanding is

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people in the US... Britain First is

a very small fringe group. It is a

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group where a lot of people in the

US don't realise the gravity or

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seriousness of the group.

British

politicians are calling for the

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invite to Donald Trump to come to

Britain on a state visit or

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otherwise to be withdrawn. What do

you say?

No, I think that's a bit

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too far. Retweeting three tweets...

I've called an Trump to undo the

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retweet. Look at some of the people

the UK have invited to come to UK on

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state visits, Middle Eastern

leaders, Chinese leaders who have

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been grotesque people you cannot

compare to. That being said, if

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Jeremy Corbyn was Prime Minister of

the UK, he has referred to people of

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Hamas and Hezbollah as friends.

Killing innocent Jewish people, but

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I wouldn't say don't invite them to

the US.

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We're joined now by former

US assistant secretary

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of State, James Rubin.

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Welcome to the programme. Let's pick

up on that state visit. Do you think

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the invite should be withdrawn?

I

think it's a pretty dramatic step to

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withdraw the invite. I think what

clearly from the time this

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invitation was first put forward, I

had the feeling that Theresa May was

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making perhaps too much of a

personal relationship between the

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president and the Prime Minister and

now she is paying the price for

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that. They thought that Donald Trump

would be all impressed by going to

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see the Queen and staying at

Buckingham Palace and that would

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make it more likely that he would do

something on trade or something on a

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trade agreement. That's not going to

happen. Donald Trump is going to

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make decisions based on what he

thinks is right or wrong, not

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because he gets to sleep in

Buckingham Palace. I think they have

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over personalised it. I think to

cancel the visit would be again to

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over personalise the relationship.

It doesn't mean the British should

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have to agree with this horrendous

behaviour of our President.

How

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horrendous is it, in your mind?

I

was not a fan of the President

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during the campaign. Pretty much

everything that I worried about,

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feared about, the individual, not

just the policies but the

0:13:190:13:25

individual's behaviour, the

bragging, the lying, all that, has

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come to fruition. On the specifics,

it's a real problem. The problem is,

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terrorism is going to be resolved

through a process within the Islamic

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community. There are a billion

Muslims in the world. Moderate

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Muslim leaders have to be the one to

do this. Donald Trump does this kind

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of thing, makes their job much

harder.

This is a diplomatic

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nightmare, isn't it?

Very well put.

For the Prime Minister. Because she,

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in some peoples minds rather

hastily, offered this state visit to

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Donald Trump. Do you think she can

really cancel it purpose -- ASBO

0:14:050:14:09

that further?

I don't think the

British government wants to escalate

0:14:090:14:14

the matter by cancelling the trip.

It is supposed at the next year, we

0:14:140:14:19

don't know when. The problem Downing

Street has had if they

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understandably thought we needed to

get alongside the new US president.

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She didn't have to offer the state

visit?

No, and not straight out of

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the box. The problem has been made

try to treat Donald Trump like any

0:14:310:14:35

other politician and he's not like

any other politician. You hear

0:14:350:14:40

accounts of Theresa May on the

telephone with Donald Trump, and he

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bamboozles her all the time, sort of

blusters his way through the call.

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Theresa May find it difficult to get

to talking points across,

0:14:490:14:52

apparently, and we are seeing it

again. The guy can go on twitter and

0:14:520:14:55

change the whole terms of the debate

with one to beat.

What do you think

0:14:550:14:59

would be an appropriate response

from the British government? Theresa

0:14:590:15:03

May has tweeted. There has been

criticism from Downing Street, is it

0:15:030:15:06

enough?

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This issue of moderate Islam, the

leaders of the moderate Islamic

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community. What I would do is to

take the issue of empowering

0:15:160:15:24

extremist and fascist right-wing

groups, who are attacking Islam, and

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do some sort of report that shows

the American president all of the

0:15:280:15:30

steps we are doing here...

The

British government should do this?

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Right. And how the empowerment of

Fascist, right-wing groups harms the

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cause.

Do you think that would stop

Donald Trump tweeting?

I don't think

0:15:430:15:49

there is anything the British

government could do to mean that.

0:15:490:15:52

His chief of staff can't get him to

stop tweeting! One thing that they

0:15:520:15:57

could do, and this is probably in

the journalist world, and you never

0:15:570:16:02

supposed to tell journalists what to

do, so let me suggest something. I

0:16:020:16:06

don't think he rebuked her. If you

read the tweet, within the context

0:16:060:16:11

of tweet language, it wasn't a slam

on Theresa May. He said he disagrees

0:16:110:16:16

with her, focus on this problem. He

didn't say, Theresa May, wrong

0:16:160:16:21

again! He didn't do all the things

he does when he wants to slam

0:16:210:16:25

people.

I think it's extraordinary

when one leader is tweeting at

0:16:250:16:30

another. He didn't use the word sad,

so I suppose...

He is from you knock

0:16:300:16:37

fashionable New York. He likes this

sort of thing. I am saying that you

0:16:370:16:40

are going to have to get used to

this. This is going to happen over

0:16:400:16:46

and over again, big, strong, public

disagreements.

Isn't that the for

0:16:460:16:49

all the rhetoric and the words,

unless action is taken, like

0:16:490:16:56

withdrawing the invite or

alternative rebukes from Theresa

0:16:560:17:00

May, then the British government is

just going to have to live with it?

0:17:000:17:04

This is the case for some good

old-fashioned diplomacy, politeness

0:17:040:17:08

in public and blazing rows in

private. I think somebody should be

0:17:080:17:12

making clear that this is

unacceptable and the damage they are

0:17:120:17:16

doing to the position of Earth as a

leader at a time when she is

0:17:160:17:19

vulnerable. If he cares about that

relationship, then...

Of other

0:17:190:17:26

countries in Europe, just knowing

what I do of Mr Trump, he likes the

0:17:260:17:29

British. He likes this country. He

respects the reason why they gave

0:17:290:17:37

him the visit is because they knew

he'd like it.

But it will not change

0:17:370:17:41

his behaviour?

Is chief of staff

can't get him to stop tweeting.

0:17:410:17:47

Nobody can do that. He has been

tweaking things that are repulsive

0:17:470:17:51

for a long time.

Should the British

government be grateful that Donald

0:17:510:17:57

Trump likes the British and the

government?

No, but be aware of it,

0:17:570:18:03

try and deploy it, and remember that

the relationship between the US and

0:18:030:18:08

UK isn't just Donald Trump. It isn't

just Donald Trump and Theresa May.

0:18:080:18:12

There are deep and serious ties in

the intelligence community, in the

0:18:120:18:16

military sphere. If you want to

improve relations with the United

0:18:160:18:20

States, forget Donald Trump and get

back in the game of international

0:18:200:18:25

affairs, get your defence

capabilities built up and again be

0:18:250:18:27

the ally of the United States that

you had been for decades and

0:18:270:18:31

decades. That is how to do a better

job with the United States.

Thank

0:18:310:18:34

you.

0:18:340:18:36

Now, it's been widely reported

that the UK and the EU might be

0:18:360:18:39

near to agreeing a Brexit divorce

settlement at the cost

0:18:390:18:42

of between 40-50 billion euros -

that's about £44 billion.

0:18:420:18:46

The EU says negotiations can't move

onto trade talks until that,

0:18:460:18:54

and the issue of the Irish border

and citizen rights are resolved.

0:18:540:18:57

But never mind the Eurocrats.

0:18:570:18:58

What did the British public

make of the figures that

0:18:580:19:00

are being talked about?

0:19:000:19:01

Here's Lizzie with our

not-so-scientific moodbox.

0:19:010:19:07

This week, there were reports that

the government had decided to update

0:19:070:19:12

of their divorce bill offered to the

EU to about £44 billion. Boris

0:19:120:19:18

Johnson says, we will offer a fair

deal. Senior backbencher Robert

0:19:180:19:22

Halfon said the British public

wouldn't stand for that, in fact,

0:19:220:19:25

they would go bananas. We've come to

Eltham, one of the only London areas

0:19:250:19:32

to vote Leave, to find out what

people here really think.

I'd go

0:19:320:19:35

bananas! I'm not paying all of that

out. We need it in this country for

0:19:350:19:43

our hospitals and fat. Iron if it

means getting up, I think yes.

It's

0:19:430:19:49

disgusting. I don't see why we

should pay them a penny. We should

0:19:490:19:53

walk away and say enough is enough.

I am probably a bit biased as an EU

0:19:530:19:58

citizen. I would pay for the

I think

44 billion is quite a bit. I'd

0:19:580:20:06

prefer to stay.

Very expensive to

pay that to go out. I would say it

0:20:060:20:13

is bananas.

I like the she says

bananas.

Go bananas.

Can you put a

0:20:130:20:20

ball in the box? Thank you.

We

promised it so we should pay

0:20:200:20:26

something. To me, this is a fair

amount. I voted Leave and I knew

0:20:260:20:30

what I was voting for.

Go bananas, I

think.

We need the money here.

Well,

0:20:300:20:42

the bananas seem to be in the lead

at the moment. Let's try another

0:20:420:20:45

spot.

Go bananas.

Why?

It just

would.

I'd go bananas. But then

0:20:450:20:57

again, what's a banana between

friends?

I want to be out of it,

0:20:570:21:01

love. Oche however much you have to

pay its all right? Yet, we did all

0:21:010:21:09

right before we even started.

Go

fair is fair.

The dog thinks it's

0:21:090:21:14

fair.

I'm going to go bananas.

Everybody knows it's ridiculous,

0:21:140:21:20

even the government.

Go bananas.

Let's go for it. That's it.

You are

0:21:200:21:32

wanting us up!

My name is Elizabeth.

You do realise you got your

0:21:320:21:41

microphone upside down, don't you?

Well, the people else have spoken,

0:21:410:21:48

and they are definitely going

bananas. It's freezing. We are off

0:21:480:21:51

to get a hot chocolate.

Well done for braving the cold.

0:21:510:21:57

We're joined now by the former Work

and Pensions Secretary,

0:21:570:22:00

Iain Duncan Smith, who campaigned

to leave the EU.

0:22:000:22:03

Your Conservative colleague Robert

Halfon MP was right, wasn't he, when

0:22:030:22:08

he said that voters will go bananas

about the size of the Brexit Bill.

0:22:080:22:12

Can you justify it?

The reality is

that we have to put it into

0:22:120:22:18

perspective. The main point is that,

whatever they agree, and I don't

0:22:180:22:22

want to have to pay a penny more

than we have a legal bind, and

0:22:220:22:26

that's exactly it, I'd like to look

at what they agree at the end of the

0:22:260:22:29

day and decide if it has a legal

purpose but, notwithstanding, in the

0:22:290:22:33

course of the negotiations they come

up with a figure, and it is spread

0:22:330:22:37

over 40 years. At the same time, if

we hadn't left the EU over 40 years,

0:22:370:22:42

the net effect of that would have

been a contribution of hours of 400

0:22:420:22:46

billion. If you net that out, we are

still better off by 360 billion,

0:22:460:22:52

which allows us to spend that on

things like health and all the other

0:22:520:22:57

issues.

So it's a bargain?

Leaving

the EU is a bargain, and £360

0:22:570:23:04

billion is the net positive effect

of leaving the EU to the UK as and

0:23:040:23:08

when it happens. It isn't money we

suddenly plucking out of the budget.

0:23:080:23:12

It's coming out at the same time as

money coming back in.

When are we

0:23:120:23:18

going to start seeing the Brexit

dividend, that money coming back

0:23:180:23:22

that was promised during the

campaign?

When we leave. We are also

0:23:220:23:26

getting money back. I don't know why

this is hard to understand.

It isn't

0:23:260:23:32

hard.

Hold on, every year, we put

net a staggering amount of let's say

0:23:320:23:38

that the figure is £10 billion that

we contribute to the EU budget net.

0:23:380:23:44

Over 40 years, that becomes 400

billion that we have put into the EU

0:23:440:23:47

budget. In the same period, we will

be getting...

You have explained

0:23:470:23:51

that.

We will be contributing to

that means that net we get money

0:23:510:23:56

back.

We will not start get money

back for four to five years. It's

0:23:560:24:03

not when we leave.

When we no longer

contribute, that's why we get the

0:24:030:24:08

money back.

But your bus didn't say,

we only get that after a transition

0:24:080:24:13

period.

I would hope we get out

tomorrow, but the reality is that

0:24:130:24:18

what they will finally agree is a

settlement, the date we leave if the

0:24:180:24:23

data we no longer make contributions

to the EU budget.

Right, but the

0:24:230:24:29

government has caved in, hasn't it?

You've talked about what we hope

0:24:290:24:32

legally, but the House of Lords

committee says that we don't as a

0:24:320:24:36

matter of law oh anything, so you

have caved in.

I want to see what

0:24:360:24:40

they have agreed and why they've

agreed. The government thinks that

0:24:400:24:45

they do owe something, and that is

why there may be legal obligations

0:24:450:24:49

as regards to pensions and other

things. All I'm saying is let's get

0:24:490:24:53

this in perspective. Whatever the

final agreement, and remember that

0:24:530:24:56

20 billion of that is over the

implantation period. If there is no

0:24:560:25:01

implementation period, it would only

be about 20 billion let's be clear,

0:25:010:25:06

the reality is that what they agree

beyond the Inca meditation period is

0:25:060:25:10

about legality.

Is your support for

paying what we owe still

0:25:100:25:15

conditional?

In what regard?

On the

trade terms?

Completely. It's the

0:25:150:25:24

government 's position.

But I am

asking about you.

My government has

0:25:240:25:31

made it clear that, unless they get

a free trade arrangement, this money

0:25:310:25:35

is irrelevant, because the money is

off the table, and that is the key

0:25:350:25:39

point.

So you are paying for access

to trade.

No, because there is no

0:25:390:25:44

deal. The point is that the deal is

that the EU wants to know what our

0:25:440:25:49

commitment is in the future, and we

are arguing quite rightly, as the EU

0:25:490:25:54

has accepted, that nothing is agreed

until everything is agreed.

To use

0:25:540:25:58

your word...

If there is no

agreement, we would go to WTO and

0:25:580:26:03

not accept any binding requirement.

You told us it is absolutely hinged

0:26:030:26:09

on a free trade arrangement.

Which

is the original discussion under

0:26:090:26:13

Article 50.

That is paying for

access. You are prepared to pay up

0:26:130:26:18

to £44 billion for access to trade,

single market.

We are not paying

0:26:180:26:27

anything for access. What I'm saying

is that the two elements are part of

0:26:270:26:32

Article 50. Article 50 says all of

these elements have to be agreed at

0:26:320:26:36

the same time for the

I don't

understand what we are paying for.

0:26:360:26:42

We are not paying for something.

What the government is negotiating

0:26:420:26:44

is whether or not we have a legal

obligation with the commitments we

0:26:440:26:49

have made to make payments over a

period of time, such as things like

0:26:490:26:54

obligations to British citizens who

happen to work for the EU who get a

0:26:540:26:58

pension requirement.

But you are

saying we only pay it if we get a

0:26:580:27:01

trade deal.

If we get a deal... If

we don't get an arrangement and an

0:27:010:27:08

agreement, we leave under WTO, there

is no agreement to pay any money to

0:27:080:27:12

the EU. That is what this is about.

I think most people think, when you

0:27:120:27:17

say it is hinged on a deal, trade

being an important part of that,

0:27:170:27:21

which do some people will feel like

paying for access, which is

0:27:210:27:26

essentially a tariff, wouldn't it

just be better to pay the tariff and

0:27:260:27:30

trade with the EU on WTO terms?

I'd

be happy to do that, but the reality

0:27:300:27:36

is that their agreement under

Article 50, we have to agree all of

0:27:360:27:40

those things if the EU to do it. If

not, we will go to WTO and there

0:27:400:27:45

will not be an interim phase and we

will leave.

Why don't we just do

0:27:450:27:51

that now?

I'm not the government. I

am simply saying what their position

0:27:510:27:55

is. I have said all along that going

to the WTO, as the head of the WTO

0:27:550:28:00

said the other day, it's not a

nightmare or a problem, it's wholly

0:28:000:28:03

reasonable. I simply said the

government wants to get a free trade

0:28:030:28:09

arrangement and, if that is a decent

operable one that gives us good

0:28:090:28:13

access to financial services, on

balance, it may be a good thing to

0:28:130:28:16

do, in which case we are prepared to

accept it providing we don't go into

0:28:160:28:20

horse trading.

How does it look to

you, in terms of support from people

0:28:200:28:24

like Iain Duncan Smith for the

government? Does it look as if this

0:28:240:28:29

is buying or paying for access with

eagerness to get the Brexit date and

0:28:290:28:37

they will pay however much? Iron the

government has got itself in a

0:28:370:28:41

pickle because it keeps talking

about legal obligations.

What is

0:28:410:28:46

going on is political arrangement.

Up until 2020, they have a budget

0:28:460:28:50

predicated on us staying in. If we

want a transition period, which the

0:28:500:28:54

government has decided that we do,

because we are not ready to leave at

0:28:540:28:58

this point, there would be chaos,

they are buying time and they are

0:28:580:29:02

buying goodwill, and you can dress

it up as legal niceties and all of

0:29:020:29:06

the rest of it, but at the end of

the day they want our money and we

0:29:060:29:10

are prepared to grease the wheels to

get what we want.

You have to

0:29:100:29:15

separate these two out. There two

elements to this, and you have

0:29:150:29:21

elided them together. It's right

that implementation -- that an Inca

0:29:210:29:24

meditation period, the UK Government

has agreed to pay what it would

0:29:240:29:27

normally paid were it's still a

member. Separate that, because it

0:29:270:29:31

may well go down as the basis. It

says, we are happy to take it to

0:29:310:29:35

2020 because that was an obligation.

What comes next need a legal base,

0:29:350:29:40

which is to say the remaining money

is over 40 years, they need a legal

0:29:400:29:45

foundation or we can't pay them.

With things like pensions, is the

0:29:450:29:48

case.

So one is an agreement to

pay...

The issue is that they need

0:29:480:29:55

our money and we are finding ways to

provide it to them. Some of that is

0:29:550:30:00

the pensions money, which has a

legal basis, and some of that

0:30:000:30:04

frankly is goodwill money.

And

paying into some organisations and

0:30:040:30:07

institutions.

Where we remain a

member of certain things, like the

0:30:070:30:14

universities and science programmes,

we will pay a simple entry fee.

0:30:140:30:17

Let's look at what else you might

agree to do during an Inca

0:30:170:30:21

meditation period. Are you prepared

to see overseen by the jurisdiction

0:30:210:30:26

of the European Court of Justice

over those two years and be on?

No,

0:30:260:30:31

not at all. When we leave, we leave,

and the key element is leaving the

0:30:310:30:36

European Court of Justice. To me and

most people, it is the Court of

0:30:360:30:39

Justice which defines being a member

of the European Union, and by the

0:30:390:30:44

way this would set a historical

precedent, you'd have to go back to

0:30:440:30:47

the time when the British were in

China when you'd have a happy moment

0:30:470:30:51

when a foreign court ruled over the

courts of another country.

What

0:30:510:30:56

would you do at that point if the

government says we are going to

0:30:560:30:59

continue some sort of jurisdiction

from the European court?

I'm

0:30:590:31:04

fundamentally opposed, and I'm not

alone. The Prime Minister is opposed

0:31:040:31:07

to it as well because, in her

Lancaster house speech, she said

0:31:070:31:12

clearly that one of our red lines is

no longer being under the authority

0:31:120:31:16

of the European Court of Justice.

0:31:160:31:21

On Donald Trump, what do you think

the government should do about the

0:31:210:31:24

invite to Donald Trump?

Inviting the

head of the United States, the

0:31:240:31:30

President of the United States, of

course it has to go ahead. His

0:31:300:31:35

tweets, he tweets on everything at

the moment. I know there is a storm

0:31:350:31:38

about on the organisation he tweets

is an outrageous and appalling

0:31:380:31:43

organisation but I wouldn't centre

too much on that. I would centre on

0:31:430:31:45

the fact when it comes to the visit,

we are inviting the head of state of

0:31:450:31:50

a number one ally of hours and at of

whom we do the greatest level of

0:31:500:31:55

trade beyond the European Union.

The

British government just has to put

0:31:550:31:58

up with it?

They made their

complaints about and is right for us

0:31:580:32:03

to say it is unacceptable for him to

insinuate that the UK doesn't do

0:32:030:32:08

enough about Islamic terrorism. That

is a matter that should be done

0:32:080:32:11

behind closed doors and in

discussion with the Americans. But

0:32:110:32:15

there is a serious criticism about

Europe generally having a very poor

0:32:150:32:22

record, the Belgians another's, an

extremism and terrorism but this is

0:32:220:32:25

not the way to make it.

Thank you,

Iain Duncan Smith.

0:32:250:32:28

Now - take back control -

that was the oft repeated mantra

0:32:280:32:31

of the Vote Leave campaign.

0:32:310:32:32

But where should that control be

returned to after Brexit?

0:32:320:32:34

Westminster or the devolved

parliaments in Wales,

0:32:340:32:36

Scotland and Northern Ireland?

0:32:360:32:40

MPs will be debating this on Monday

as The Withdrawal Bill

0:32:400:32:43

continue its passage

through the Commons.

0:32:430:32:48

That's likely to cause ructions,

so to smooth the way,

0:32:480:32:50

First Secretary of State,

Damian Green, is meeting

0:32:500:32:52

the Scottish government this

afternoon and this morning has been

0:32:520:32:54

speaking to the First Minister

of Wales, Carwyn Jones,

0:32:540:32:57

who joins us now from Cardiff.

0:32:570:32:58

How did that meeting go?

It was a

positive meeting. We made some

0:32:580:33:05

progress, in terms of looking at

frameworks in areas like agriculture

0:33:050:33:09

and fisheries. But no progress in

terms of the amendments we put down

0:33:090:33:14

for the Withdrawal Bill that would

protect the people of Wales.

You

0:33:140:33:17

have concerns about what would

happen to the Welsh economy when

0:33:170:33:21

Britain leads the EU. Spell out for

us what those are.

Two thirds of our

0:33:210:33:28

exports go to the European single

market. 90% of our food and drink

0:33:280:33:33

exports go there. 70% of trade go

there. Whether it is a tariff

0:33:330:33:41

barrier nontariff barrier, if it

restricts our ability to send those

0:33:410:33:45

markets, is bad for Wales.

Are you

going to continue to block Brexit,

0:33:450:33:50

as your critics would see it?

No. We

put forward some positive proposals

0:33:500:33:54

as to what direction Brexit should

look like. We want the softest

0:33:540:34:02

Brexit. I don't accept when people

say the vote last year was the

0:34:020:34:07

hardest possible Brexit, that's

nonsense, they are putting their own

0:34:070:34:09

spin on it. People voted to leave

the EU and we are. There are ways to

0:34:090:34:13

do it that are less damaging than

others. We said it is hugely

0:34:130:34:18

important the UK has full access to

the single market. We wouldn't leave

0:34:180:34:21

the customs union and have put

forward what we think is a

0:34:210:34:25

reasonable and balanced position on

fair movement of people.

You would

0:34:250:34:28

continue some sort of freedom of

movement, and would you be prepared

0:34:280:34:34

to see the European Court of Justice

having oversight?

I have no problem

0:34:340:34:39

with that. The European Court of

Human Rights. Have oversight in

0:34:390:34:43

Britain, regardless of what happens.

What we suggest is this, similar to

0:34:430:34:47

what Norway does: Freedom movement

to go to a job and a short window

0:34:470:34:51

either side to look for a job, but

not an absolute freedom of movement.

0:34:510:34:55

That's what we think the regulations

say.

That is not Brexit, is it, in

0:34:550:35:02

the way that certainly the Prime

Minister has outlined, and nor the

0:35:020:35:06

majority of people in Wales voted

for?

People voted to leave the EU,

0:35:060:35:11

they didn't say how they wanted to

leave the EU.

If you don't, if you

0:35:110:35:17

continue with freedom of movement

and you want to have similar access

0:35:170:35:21

to the single market, then you

haven't left the EU, have you?

Well

0:35:210:35:25

you have, because Norway is not in

the EU and has those things. It

0:35:250:35:29

doesn't have full access to the

single market that that's his

0:35:290:35:32

choice. The reality is we can leave

the EU and still have full and

0:35:320:35:36

effective access in the single

market, which is important to us. We

0:35:360:35:39

can have a modified version of

freedom of movement and yet still

0:35:390:35:42

not be members of the EU and still

saddest -- satisfy the EU

0:35:420:35:49

referendum. They were asked to vote

on the concept and people are now

0:35:490:35:53

interpreting it in different ways.

We put forward ways we think are

0:35:530:35:57

pure common-sense.

When you say they

voted for a concept, they voting for

0:35:570:36:01

your concept? To like Norway?

Well,

it was mentioned. There were those

0:36:010:36:09

in the Leave campaign that mentioned

Norway as an example of what the UK

0:36:090:36:13

should do. So people did say Norway

is the model if the UK leads the EU.

0:36:130:36:18

It should be a surprise. The reality

is we don't know. People voted to

0:36:180:36:23

leave the EU. There will be

different views on how that is done.

0:36:230:36:26

To my mind, we have to do it in a

common-sense way that represents the

0:36:260:36:30

best outcome for Wales and Britain.

Would you withhold consent to the

0:36:300:36:34

deal that's done?

First of all, we

need to remove the problem that

0:36:340:36:42

exists, where powers that would

return to Wales under the current

0:36:420:36:47

bill would get sidetracked to

Whitehall with the decision as to

0:36:470:36:50

whether we get that decision or not.

We cannot accept that. If that

0:36:500:36:54

decision is done with, no problem.

If it is not, will you withhold

0:36:540:36:58

consent?

We're not going to prove it

now. What the UK Government is

0:36:580:37:03

asking us to do is to go to the

assembly are they there are powers

0:37:030:37:06

coming to us, would you agree to

those powers going to London

0:37:060:37:09

instead? And at some point they may

give us those powers back. No UK

0:37:090:37:14

Government, no Prime Minister would

ever stand up in Parliament and do

0:37:140:37:16

that and I'm not prepared to do that

in the Welsh Parliament. Who would

0:37:160:37:20

do that? There's a different way of

doing it. We understand what the UK

0:37:200:37:28

Government is trying to do, create

certainty, we understand that. I

0:37:280:37:30

think we can create that certainty

through agreement and not in

0:37:300:37:32

position. We have the scenario now,

for example, in areas devolved such

0:37:320:37:35

as farming and fisheries, the Welsh

would be restrained in what they

0:37:350:37:40

could do but the other ministers

could do what they wanted.

You are

0:37:400:37:46

facing questions into how you handle

the claims against Labour's Carl

0:37:460:37:50

Sargent, who was found dead after

being sacked about comments he made

0:37:500:37:55

about women.

Howdy respond to that?

His funeral is tomorrow. There is a

0:37:550:38:00

time and place the questions and

answers but today is not that time,

0:38:000:38:03

I don't think it would be right.

Thank you for joining us, Colin

0:38:030:38:07

Jones. What is your view about what

we decide on how the Prime Minister

0:38:070:38:13

would respond?

All these sort of

different groups that have a view

0:38:130:38:19

and Welsh and Scottish governments

are quite powerful and have an

0:38:190:38:22

ability to put a spanner in the

works, along with some of the MPs

0:38:220:38:25

who supported remain who are trying

to steer things in the direction of

0:38:250:38:30

a soft Brexit. I was very

interested, when you asked him the

0:38:300:38:33

question, are you going to block

this deal? In the same way as you

0:38:330:38:38

ask MPs who supported remain whether

ultimately they would vote down any

0:38:380:38:42

deal Theresa May doesn't Europe,

they are in a difficult position.

0:38:420:38:45

They don't want answer the question.

The alternative to the deal Theresa

0:38:450:38:49

May does is not better deal but no

deal at all and going to WTO rules.

0:38:490:38:55

Hard to see the Welsh or Scottish

oil remain MPs ever voting for that.

0:38:550:39:00

Let's leave it there.

0:39:000:39:02

Theresa May is currently

touring the Middle East

0:39:020:39:04

and yesterday she held meetings

with Crown Prince Mohammed bin

0:39:040:39:07

Salman, the de facto

leader of Saudi Arabia.

0:39:070:39:09

The Prime Minister has faced

criticism for not being tougher

0:39:090:39:11

on the Kingdom for its continued

involvement in the

0:39:110:39:13

civil war in Yemen.

0:39:130:39:16

Saudi Arabia has imposed a blockade

on Yemen's borders, causing huge

0:39:160:39:19

shortages with 2.5 million people

currently not having access to clean

0:39:190:39:21

water and around 7 million

being totally dependent

0:39:210:39:23

on food assistance.

0:39:230:39:27

What's more, the Saudi government

is leading a coalition supporting

0:39:270:39:30

the Yemeni government

against Iranian backed Houthi

0:39:300:39:31

rebels, and there have been reports

of thousands of civilian casualties.

0:39:310:39:35

Britain is a major exporter

of arms to the Kingdom.

0:39:350:39:40

Speaking yesterday, Mrs May said

would be speaking to Saudi Arabia

0:39:400:39:43

about the situation in Yemen.

0:39:430:39:45

I'm very concerned about

the humanitarian crisis that

0:39:450:39:48

has developed in Yemen,

particularly most recently.

0:39:480:39:52

That's why the strong message I'll

be giving to Saudi Arabia tonight

0:39:520:39:55

is that we want to see Hodeida port

opened for humanitarian

0:39:550:39:59

and commercial access.

0:39:590:40:00

That's important.

0:40:000:40:03

I think the international

community is concerned

0:40:030:40:04

about the humanitarian

crisis in Yemen.

0:40:040:40:07

That access for commercial

and humanitarian goods is important

0:40:070:40:09

through Hodeida port.

0:40:090:40:12

We're joined now by the Shadow

Defence Secretary, Nia Griffith.

0:40:120:40:17

Welcome to the programme. Would

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, be

0:40:170:40:23

visiting Saudi Arabia if he was the

Prime Minister?

He would be trying

0:40:230:40:27

to influence the Saudi government. I

think it is very, very important

0:40:270:40:30

that we have a proper, competitive

and independent UN led investigation

0:40:300:40:36

into what exactly is happening in

Yemen at the moment, and in

0:40:360:40:40

particular we want them to lift that

blockade, so that humanitarian aid

0:40:400:40:45

can get in through the ports.

Worked

the best way to do that be to visit

0:40:450:40:49

the country and hold talks?

Certainly it is one way forward. We

0:40:490:40:54

have also said we should suspend

arms sales to Saudi Arabia, pending

0:40:540:40:59

that UN investigation. Again, I

think it is very important that we

0:40:590:41:04

have a responsible relationship with

Saudi Arabia. They're not just an

0:41:040:41:07

export partner for us but also a

coalition partner in the Middle

0:41:070:41:10

East. We need to be frank with our

partners like that and say when we

0:41:100:41:16

want to call them out and don't

accept...

You would halt arms

0:41:160:41:20

exports to Saudi Arabia whilst you

carried out that investigation. How

0:41:200:41:24

would that help relations with the

country?

I think it's very, very

0:41:240:41:28

important we play with Saudi Arabia

what is not acceptable. Whilst we

0:41:280:41:31

are having an investigation, where

they could have been breaches of

0:41:310:41:36

international humanitarian law, it's

very important that we show that we

0:41:360:41:38

take very seriously.

By holding arms

exporter and cutting any ties?

I

0:41:380:41:45

think it's very important we show a

clear message...

How do you do that?

0:41:450:41:51

By halting the arms export. We have

a very clear licensing system in

0:41:510:41:56

this country and responsible

employers, responsible companies

0:41:560:41:58

understand why we have that.

Would

you cut diplomatic ties was that

0:41:580:42:03

investigation is going on?

What we

need to look at is what kind of

0:42:030:42:07

response we get from Saudi Arabia.

It's very important we keep channels

0:42:070:42:10

of communication open but that we

make it very clear what we do not

0:42:100:42:14

accept in their behaviour.

Your

party isn't united on this issue,

0:42:140:42:19

though, or this policy that you have

just spoken on. More than 100 Labour

0:42:190:42:26

MPs abstained when it was put

forward in the Commons.

The

0:42:260:42:30

important thing is there are

different ways of wedding motions.

0:42:300:42:33

The important thing is...

You are

the Shadow Defence Secretary that

0:42:330:42:38

you haven't got the support of 100

Labour MPs on it.

It is very

0:42:380:42:41

important we take very seriously

what's happening in Yemen and we

0:42:410:42:44

deal with the issue in Yemen, but

that we do recognise that in the

0:42:440:42:50

broader the delays, Saudi Arabia has

been a very important coalition

0:42:500:42:52

partner. So it is very important we

keep those channels of communication

0:42:520:42:58

open and we can call out Saudi

Arabia for what we understand and

0:42:580:43:02

see that it's doing wrong.

Would

that not, as you just said, you see

0:43:020:43:06

them as an important coalition

partner, would that not risk the

0:43:060:43:10

relationship with Saudi Arabia and

lose influence in the region? Not

0:43:100:43:14

even during party supports the line.

I think it's important to stand up

0:43:140:43:18

for what's right.

So those 100

Labour MPs are wrong? Empty gesture

0:43:180:43:24

politics is what John Woodcock said

at the time.

What you have to look

0:43:240:43:28

at is the actual wording of the

resolution. It wasn't something that

0:43:280:43:31

perhaps was universally easy to get

behind. Because it referenced the

0:43:310:43:39

coalition and what we want to be

very clear about is that we keep the

0:43:390:43:44

dialogue open with Saudi Arabia but

we call them out where there are

0:43:440:43:47

things that are totally

unacceptable. So we want a proper

0:43:470:43:51

investigation, to see exactly what

happened, to see what breaches of

0:43:510:43:54

law there have been and pending that

investigation, the result of that

0:43:540:43:58

investigation, we have said we would

want to see arms sales suspended to

0:43:580:44:02

Saudi.

What you say when the High

Court ruled the arms were perfectly

0:44:020:44:06

legal?

Sales can be legal but the

question we are asking is whether it

0:44:060:44:11

is a sale we want to make when we

are seeing something happening in

0:44:110:44:16

Yemen which is shocking people in

this country. I think the crisis

0:44:160:44:20

that is in Yemen at the moment is

one of the worst things we've seen,

0:44:200:44:25

and people are really concerned

about that. So they are very, very

0:44:250:44:30

concerned that we should be doing

anything which, if you like, shores

0:44:300:44:34

up that. An investigation will

reveal exactly what is going on.

0:44:340:44:38

That is why we are calling for it,

and then we can see where we proceed

0:44:380:44:42

from there. It is important we are

prepared to speak up to those allies

0:44:420:44:46

that we sometimes think I'm not

doing the right thing.

By halting

0:44:460:44:51

arms exports to Saudi Arabia do you

accept you would be putting at risk

0:44:510:44:54

thousands of jobs, many of them in

Labour held areas?

As I said, the

0:44:540:44:59

talks I've had with the companies,

they do understand why we want to

0:44:590:45:03

have a responsible arms export

company.

They are prepared for those

0:45:030:45:06

jobs to be put at risk?

They

understand why we have proper

0:45:060:45:10

licensing and they do understand

that sometimes it is necessary to

0:45:100:45:13

call out specific countries on

specific actions they are taking.

Do

0:45:130:45:17

you think, Tim Shipman, Theresa May

will revise the relationship with

0:45:170:45:21

Saudi Arabia and Roback on contact?

I don't think there is any prospect

0:45:210:45:27

of that, thankfully. There is a

close security relationship with

0:45:270:45:30

Saudi Arabia which Theresa May, been

a silent Home Secretary for six

0:45:300:45:34

years knows all about. There's a lot

of intelligence exchange. Theresa

0:45:340:45:37

May hasn't done a lot in foreign

affairs. One of the things she did

0:45:370:45:42

do last December is go to the golf

Corporation cars, the first female

0:45:420:45:46

leader ever to address it, and she

sees cooperation with Saudi Arabia

0:45:460:45:49

as a sort of a key cornerstone of

her foreign policy. They have some

0:45:490:45:54

hope the new Crown Prince is

liberalising things and is someone

0:45:540:45:57

they can do business with. I don't

think there's any prospect of them

0:45:570:46:00

doing what the Labour Party wants at

this point.

,

0:46:000:46:02

Nia Griffith, thank you.

0:46:050:46:07

Now, to say it's been

an unpredictable year

0:46:080:46:09

in British politics is a bit,

well, predictable.

0:46:090:46:11

Our guest of the day, Tim Shipman,

has written this weighty

0:46:110:46:14

tome taking the reader

through Theresa May's tumultuous

0:46:140:46:16

12 months or so.

0:46:160:46:17

But don't worry, if time's

short - here's most of

0:46:170:46:19

what happened in two minutes.

0:46:190:46:21

The Article 50 process

is now under way and,

0:46:210:46:24

in accordance with the wishes

of the British people,

0:46:240:46:27

the United Kingdom is leaving

the European Union.

0:46:270:46:31

Today, as we face this

critical election for our

0:46:320:46:34

country, I launch my manifesto

for Britain's future.

0:46:340:46:40

General election.

0:46:400:46:41

You're joking!

0:46:410:46:42

Not another one?!

0:46:420:46:46

You have just announced

a significant change to what was

0:46:460:46:49

offered in your manifesto,

saying there will now be

0:46:490:46:52

the possibility of

a cap on social care.

0:46:520:46:55

That was not in the plans

that were announced

0:46:550:46:57

just four days ago.

0:46:570:46:58

That doesn't look so strong

and stable, Prime Minister, does it?

0:46:580:47:01

Nothing has changed.

0:47:010:47:03

Nothing has changed.

0:47:040:47:07

And what we are saying

is, the Conservatives

0:47:070:47:09

are the largest party.

0:47:090:47:11

Note they don't have an overall

majority at this stage.

0:47:110:47:15

At counts across the country,

Conservative dreams

0:47:150:47:18

of a thumping majority crumbled.

0:47:180:47:20

# We'll keep the red

flag flying here...#

0:47:200:47:24

CHANTING: No peace!

No justice!

0:47:240:47:28

CHANTING: May must go! May must go!

0:47:280:47:31

I'm not hearing any whistling,

just the clock ticking.

0:47:350:47:42

# I'm a survivor, I'm not

going to give up...#

0:47:430:47:47

Today, we have reached an agreement

with the Conservative Party

0:47:470:47:53

on support for government in

Parliament.

0:47:530:47:58

Boris is absolutely behind

the Florence speech and the

0:47:590:48:01

line that we have taken.

0:48:010:48:03

Is he unsackable?

0:48:030:48:03

SHE LAUGHS.

0:48:030:48:06

While our opponents

flirt with a foreign

0:48:060:48:10

policy of neutrality...

0:48:100:48:14

It sounds as if my

voice isn't on track.

0:48:140:48:16

SHE COUGHS.

0:48:160:48:19

# I'm a survivor, keep on survivor.

0:48:190:48:23

We're joined now by Theresa May's

former strategy director

0:48:260:48:28

and chief speech writer,

Chris Wilkins.

0:48:280:48:31

He was so important,

there's a whole appendix devoted

0:48:310:48:33

to him in Tim's book.

0:48:330:48:39

I have that book it, weighing down

the table. Where did you find time

0:48:390:48:45

to write it?

If Theresa May and

Margaret Thatcher can get by on four

0:48:450:48:49

hour sleep, why should journalists

be different!

You spoke to over 100

0:48:490:48:54

people when you are writing this,

explaining how the referendum

0:48:540:48:56

plunged Britain into a year of

mayhem. What are the key moments?

0:48:560:49:03

The first part of the book is about

the debates in the cabinet up until

0:49:030:49:08

the declaration of Article 50, the

timing of it and how they did it,

0:49:080:49:12

then about the general election and

then the leadership that followed

0:49:120:49:17

it, and how Theresa May finally got

herself en route to delivering some

0:49:170:49:21

of that Brexit stuff.

What juicy

revelations did you find out?

Having

0:49:210:49:28

interviewed over 100 people, and ask

every single Tory who was in charge

0:49:280:49:32

of the election campaign, not one of

them was able to give me a straight

0:49:320:49:35

answer. That was an interesting

moment. You have a whole campaign

0:49:350:49:40

throughout the last autumn

portraying Theresa May in a

0:49:400:49:45

particular way but, when they came

to the election campaign, they

0:49:450:49:49

portrayed her in a different way,

and it didn't work so well.

0:49:490:49:54

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and

she blew it in terms of the election

0:49:540:49:58

and the majority. Should she have

called it? Was she right to call it?

0:49:580:50:04

Absolutely, I think she was right to

call it. I counselled her to call it

0:50:040:50:08

and I think there were several

reasons for doing so. It didn't work

0:50:080:50:12

out how we wanted and there were

missteps along the way and some bad

0:50:120:50:16

decisions made in terms of campaign

strategy and the communication

0:50:160:50:20

strategy behind it, which was quite

updated -- outdated. The underlying

0:50:200:50:25

reasons for calling the election

were sound, in terms of getting a

0:50:250:50:28

mandate for change and physically

putting back the Brexit timetable so

0:50:280:50:31

we didn't have it in 2020 -- an

election in 2020.

Who do you blame

0:50:310:50:40

for what went wrong?

We all have to

take the blame. There were hundreds

0:50:400:50:45

of things. Underpinned by probably

two things. The campaign strategy

0:50:450:50:48

which the campaign team decided

would pitch the Conservative Party

0:50:480:50:53

and the Prime Minister as the status

quo in an election that I think was

0:50:530:51:00

about change, and the communication

strategy, which was outdated, in my

0:51:000:51:04

view. In modern campaigns, you have

to speak to people's emotions and

0:51:040:51:08

feelings and we thought, if you came

up with a feud phrases, it would

0:51:080:51:12

convince them that I don't think it

worked.

Who was to blame in your

0:51:120:51:17

mind for deciding it should be a

presidential style election, when

0:51:170:51:21

many would argue actually get

exposed weaknesses of Theresa May?

0:51:210:51:26

There were two camps in the election

campaign, the Timothy Amber Rudd

0:51:260:51:31

Theresa May...

Seen as the brains.

-- the Timothy campaign. Some

0:51:310:51:42

research found that Theresa May was

a popular figure in should be put at

0:51:420:51:46

the heart of the campaign. I think

they didn't mind that, they thought

0:51:460:51:50

she was a transformational leader,

and she was put at the heart of it.

0:51:500:51:55

500 pages of reasons to blame one

person or another. I think Nick

0:51:550:52:00

would acknowledge that the manifesto

he wrote was a problem and, if you

0:52:000:52:03

look at the internal polling, things

got off a cliff halfway through the

0:52:030:52:08

campaign but, after that had

happened, the Prime Minister herself

0:52:080:52:11

was unable to raise the game and

deal with the TB exchanges that she

0:52:110:52:15

had, and I think people who looked

at her and had seen somebody who was

0:52:150:52:21

a different kind of Conservative,

portraying herself a strong and

0:52:210:52:24

stable, they looked at her and said,

you don't seem to like being at the

0:52:240:52:28

heart of all of this. Ultimately,

there were problems with the

0:52:280:52:31

strategy and the personnel, and the

person in a position to be able to

0:52:310:52:35

make decisions about who was doing

those jobs, that was the Prime

0:52:350:52:38

Minister herself. You can't blame

Lynton Crosby for it. If you don't

0:52:380:52:44

like the campaign, don't hire him.

Let's talk about the manifesto. You

0:52:440:52:47

talked about nick Timothy being

behind the social care policy. How

0:52:470:52:54

big a mistake was that?

We went into

the election thinking was about

0:52:540:52:58

change and we needed a mandate to

deliver bad and we set out to

0:52:580:53:02

deliver a manifesto to give us that

mandate. I don't see the point of

0:53:020:53:06

having an election and not putting

things in that. I think there were a

0:53:060:53:10

couple of things. First, it was

clearly a big policy, we didn't

0:53:100:53:19

communicate around the policy, and

that was because the campaign team

0:53:190:53:21

decided they didn't want to

concentrate on policy. The broader

0:53:210:53:27

problem with the manifesto actually,

to be fair, was what wasn't in it

0:53:270:53:31

rather than what was. I was

surprised when I saw it that there

0:53:310:53:34

were things I thought would appear

that would have been more retail

0:53:340:53:37

friendly, that were not there. In my

view, it was the absence of certain

0:53:370:53:42

things, rather than the particular

fact that one policy was in there.

0:53:420:53:47

Would that have delivered a

different result?

I think, it's not

0:53:470:53:52

all about the manifesto, but the

manifesto was a symptom of the wider

0:53:520:53:56

problem. We went into the campaign

and research which delivered a

0:53:560:54:01

strategy that was all about change

and the big changes we wanted to

0:54:010:54:04

bring to the country in the context

of the referendum. As soon as the

0:54:040:54:09

election campaign was called, we

stretched strategy completely and

0:54:090:54:11

became the candidate of the status

quo. -- we switched strategy board

0:54:110:54:17

so the manifesto was a halfway house

with some big ideas but not many,

0:54:170:54:21

and it stemmed back to the original

decision. I think that was

0:54:210:54:26

fundamentally bad thing.

Did it also

showed that people didn't know

0:54:260:54:28

Theresa May? If they thought she'd

be up to handle and carried the sort

0:54:280:54:35

of campaign that had been designed

for her by Lynton Crosby and others,

0:54:350:54:39

did the people around her

overestimate her?

I think some of

0:54:390:54:44

them perhaps, but what they had

successfully done at the Home Office

0:54:440:54:47

was run a strategy where she kept

her head down and appeared once in a

0:54:470:54:51

while and did big set piece things,

and everybody I talked to said that

0:54:510:54:55

she and her team delivered these big

set piece speeches really

0:54:550:55:00

effectively. She isn't so good at

adapting to changing circumstances

0:55:000:55:03

and events that move quicker than

those decision maces --

0:55:030:55:09

decision-making processes move. She

likes to take her time. When events

0:55:090:55:12

happen that need an instinctive

response, it isn't always clear

0:55:120:55:16

there is one.

Do you think the

Brexit strategy has been successful

0:55:160:55:21

so far?

I think where we are at the

end of this year with the strategy

0:55:210:55:24

is about where we thought we would

be. A lot has been written about it,

0:55:240:55:28

but actually we are pretty much on

track to where we thought we'd be

0:55:280:55:32

when we sat down and talked about it

first off when we were in Downing

0:55:320:55:36

Street.

You wouldn't have agreed the

first bit of the negotiations and

0:55:360:55:39

yet to move on to the next bit?

It

would be the key time to try and

0:55:390:55:45

agree the things that are on the

table, and we look forward to a

0:55:450:55:48

positive response from the EU this

week, and to forget that, if I look

0:55:480:55:53

back to the conversations we I think

this was about the timetable.

Thank

0:55:530:55:56

you.

0:55:560:55:58

There's just time before we go

to find out the answer to our quiz.

0:55:580:56:01

The question was where have Mrs

and Miss gone missing?

0:56:010:56:04

Is it...

0:56:040:56:05

In the classroom, at Wimbledon,

in the law courts,

0:56:050:56:07

or in the council chamber?

0:56:070:56:10

So, Tim, what's the correct answer?

0:56:100:56:17

I'll have a D please, Bob.

That is

correct, yes.

0:56:170:56:20

Yes, Debretts - the authority

on etiquette and behaviour -

0:56:200:56:22

has changed their advice on how

female councillors should be

0:56:220:56:25

addressed after Deneice

Florence-Jukes, a councillor

0:56:250:56:26

in East Staffordshire, objected

to the way in which she and other

0:56:260:56:29

women were referred to.

0:56:290:56:30

The convention of referring

to female councillors

0:56:300:56:33

as Mrs or Miss - but never

using Mr for men dates

0:56:330:56:36

back to at least 1907.

0:56:360:56:39

Well, we can speak now

to Councillor Deneice Florence-Jukes

0:56:390:56:42

who's in our Derby studio.

0:56:420:56:49

This is quite an achievement for

someone who is new to politics!

It

0:56:490:56:52

is, yes. I joined to get change, and

I've done that.

What did you have to

0:56:520:57:01

do to get Debretts to change their

advice?

I have been lobbying

0:57:010:57:07

Debretts for quite a few weeks now,

appealing to them that it's an

0:57:070:57:11

outdated practice and good they look

at it, and yesterday we heard the

0:57:110:57:15

fantastic news that they have

addressed it and abandoned it, which

0:57:150:57:19

is great. It's only taken 110 years!

It only took you a few weeks to put

0:57:190:57:26

the pressure on. I gather that is

Staffordshire borough council are

0:57:260:57:29

voting on your motion in a few days.

I presume you expect it to pass.

I

0:57:290:57:35

would hope so. There has been a bit

of resistance to some change in some

0:57:350:57:40

quarters but I hope, once they hear

my argument in full in chamber on

0:57:400:57:44

Monday, I will be able to convince

them that it is the right move.

0:57:440:57:48

Where is the resistance coming from?

From ladies that like being called

0:57:480:57:55

Mrs. I am battling against the very

people I'm trying to assist, really.

0:57:550:57:59

What do you say to them?

I say, go

with the programme. It's completely

0:57:590:58:07

outdated, it's not necessary at all,

and it isn't helping the cause of

0:58:070:58:12

equality and diversity. If we look

at our chamber, it lacks diversity,

0:58:120:58:16

and I'm hoping that it's a way of

addressing that and encouraging more

0:58:160:58:21

people to come into the council, so

that we better reflect the borough

0:58:210:58:26

and the people we serve.

You are no

stranger to titles, having

0:58:260:58:30

previously been with the military

and police. How are they doing

0:58:300:58:34

equality of title?

We've had our

first ever Metropolitan Police

0:58:340:58:37

female commissioner in Cressida

Dick, the London Fire Brigade have

0:58:370:58:42

Danny cotton. I first joined the

WPC, it changed to police officer,

0:58:420:58:50

so we've seen that change, and it's

positive. It shows that, if you get

0:58:500:58:53

rid of those...

I have to stop you because we are

0:58:530:58:57

running out of time.

0:58:570:58:58

That's all for today.

0:58:580:58:59

Thanks to our guests.

0:58:590:59:03

You can have a rest now!

0:59:030:59:05

Bye-bye.

0:59:050:59:08

Jo Coburn is joined by The Sunday Times Political Editor Tim Shipman to discuss British relations with America after Donald Trump told Theresa May to focus on 'terrorism' in the UK, after she criticised his sharing of far-right videos. Plus an interview with first minister of Wales Carwyn Jones about Wales and Brexit, and a look at changes Debretts has made to its advice on addressing councillors.


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